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Superstorm Sandy and the importance of polar orbiting satellites in forecasting

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:19 PM GMT on January 03, 2013

On the 23rd of October, the 18th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Sandy, was born in the Central Caribbean. As is common for late-season storms in the Caribbean, Sandy moved northwards across Cuba. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center issued on October 23 called for Sandy to turn to the northeast after crossing Cuba, and head into the Central Atlantic. This forecast was based on the output from five of our top six computer models, which all predicted that an upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards. However, the global weather forecast model run by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) showed a disturbing possibility: the upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would not be strong enough to turn Sandy to the northeast. The hurricane would instead get caught up in the flow associated with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast, and Sandy would get slung into New York or New Jersey on October 29. While the ECMWF model was the best performing model for tracking Atlantic hurricanes in both 2010 and 2011, and had done very well again so far in 2012, the American GFS model had outperformed the ECMWF model several times during the 2012 season. NHC elected to discount the ECMWF forecast for Sandy as an outlier, and went with the forecast from the GFS and other models. By October 25, it was clear that the ECMWF model had the right idea all along. More models were now showing the turn towards New York, and the official NHC forecast now called for Sandy to make landfall in New York or New Jersey on October 29. The ECMWF model's early forecast of a track for Sandy into the Northeast was critical for allowing additional time for residents to prepare for arrival of the devastating storm. So what enabled the ECMWF model to make such an excellent forecast for Sandy, six days in advance?


Figure 1. This image uses the model output from the ECMWF experiment, showing where Sandy was predicted to be located five-days out with the normal satellite data inputs into the model (left) and without any polar-orbiting satellite data (right). Both position and intensity forecasts were affected--Sandy stays out to sea without the polar-orbiting satellite data, and the closer isobar lines encircling the storm also imply a more organized and stronger system. Image credit: NOAA.

Polar satellite data: a key to ECMWF model success
The ECWMF has a very sophisticated technique called "4-D Var" for gathering all the current weather data over the Earth and putting the data on a 3-dimensional grid that is then used as the initial "reality" of the current weather for the model to use for its forecast. The old expression, "garbage in, garbage out" is a truism for weather forecast models. If you don't properly characterize the initial state of the atmosphere, the errors you start off with will grow and give a lower-quality forecast. Data from geostationary satellites, which sit continuously at one spot above the globe, are easy to assimilate, and all the models use this data. However, the ECMWF model's superior technique used to assimilate the initial data allows inclusion of data from a large number of polar-orbiting satellites, which the other models cannot do as well. Polar-orbiting satellites orbit Earth at an altitude of 540 miles twice per day, circling from pole to pole. Their data is difficult to use, since the it is only available twice per day at each spot on the Earth, and the time of availability is different for each location. According to an email I received from Jean-Noël Thépaut, the chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ECMWF model uses data from at least fourteen polar orbiting satellites: N-15, N-19, N-19, N-17 (ozone SBUV instrument only), Metop-A, AQUA, NPP (ATMS instrument only), AURA (ozone OMI data only), F-17, TRMM (TMI data), COSMIC, GRACE-A, TERRASAR, and the GPSRO data on top of METOP-GRAS. The data of most importance is the data collected in the infrared and microwave wavelengths, as well as atmospheric density data obtained via GPS radio occultation (as a polar orbiting satellite goes over the horizon, the GPS signals from the satellite get bent by Earth's atmosphere, with the amount of bending proportional to the density of the atmosphere. This GPS Radio Occultation data is gathered from eight polar orbiting satellites, and fed into both the ECMWF and GFS models.) You can find a nice summary of the impacts of polar orbiting satellite data on weather prediction models at this link.)


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. By this time, the GFDL model had joined the ECMWF in predicting that Sandy would make landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's north-northwestward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

As originally reported by the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, then confirmed in a NOAA press release, a study done by ECMWF research scientist Tony McNally found that if the ECMWF model did not have all of the data from the fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the five-day forecast of the model for Hurricane Sandy would have shown Sandy missing the Northeast U.S. This brings up a concern, since the U.S. polar orbiting satellite program is behind schedule. As explained by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, the program is plagued by mismanagement, billions in cost overruns, and technical development challenges. The next polar orbiting satellite is not scheduled to be launched until 2017, and one or more of the existing polar orbiting satellites are expected to fail before then. This will result in a degradation of our ability to observe and predict the weather, and may result in poorer forecasts for storms like Hurricane Sandy. Given that the ECMWF model used data from fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the failure of just one satellite may not have made a significant difference in its forecast for Sandy. But if we lose several of these key satellites by 2017, our hurricane forecasts in 2017 may be worse than they were in 2012. To figure out how to cope with the loss of satellite-derived data, NOAA is conducting a Gap Risk Study that seeks ideas from researchers and the public on how NOAA can preserve the quality of its weather model forecasts in the event of the failure of one or more polar orbiting satellites in the coming years.


Figure 3. A tanker rests on the southern shore after being swept onto land by a storm surge due to Superstorm Sandy, Friday, Nov. 2, 2012, in the Staten Island borough of New York. (AP Photo/ John Minchillo)

Links
Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle has an interview with Jean-Noël Thépaut, chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, on why the European model did so well with Hurricane Sandy.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Did anyone know that Sonamu means 'pine tree' in Korean?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Did anyone know that Sonamu means 'pine tree' in Korean?

we do now.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I am sure that if somebody came along and offered to take the branch clippings away, they would gladly give them away free.
The wood seems to burn quite well green and in fact when there are forest fires in the summer the trees explode in quite a spectacular fashion. The wood may also have a high oily content.
I have used olive oil to run my van on as its cheaper here than gas or diesel. It smells a bit like a potato chip fryer in the exhaust.
The local brick factory uses olive oil to run its brick furnaces. I supose in US dollars its about $3 dollars a liter or $1.60 a pint here, for the good stuff. I know you pay a lot more for it in some parts of the world, the cheap stuff is about $1 a lite I think from the factories, a lot cheaper than diesel in Europe.


Hmmm, do you have a regular engine or did you have to do something to it?! I don't think olive oil is cheaper in the UK than petrol...despite how much petrol is these days...is £1.30 a litre now...though not much more than the cheap olive oil brands LOL


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:43 pm WST on Monday 7 January 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Low was located at 2 pm WST near 11.4S 120.9E, that is 740 km north of
Broome and moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is located southwest of Timor and is expected to develop
further as it moves in a generally southwest direction, reaching cyclone
intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Australian mainland.
On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and approach the
west Pilbara coast.

The developing tropical low is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next
48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm WST.
Why do people make such bold predictions??

Japan Earthquakes ‏@earthquakejapan
EARTHQUAKE WARNING (7.2 to 7.7) earthquake is likely within 400 kilometers of Tokyo, Japan next 24 hours.


This prediction was made 13hrs ago. If nothing happens in the next 11hrs, this person is a goof-ball.
The NSW Rural Fire Service (@NSWRFS) advises that ALL NSW national parks will be closed tomorrow due to the conditions.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Why do people make such bold predictions??

Japan Earthquakes %u200F@earthquakejapan
EARTHQUAKE WARNING (7.2 to 7.7) earthquake is likely within 400 kilometers of Tokyo, Japan next 24 hours.


This prediction was made 13hrs ago. If nothing happens in the next 11hrs, this person is a goof-ball.


??? another one? They had a strong 7.something earlier this year (or late last year)...
seriously...

BTW...Hi Aussie (IKD why but you're the only one I greet on this blog and IDK why Im saying it now)
I'll be looking at that one then...lol
and that one...
Northern Tasmanian fires flare again



A fire at Montumana in the North West of Tasmania is threatening homes inland from Rocky Cape National Park. A fire between Bicheno and the Freycinet Peninsula and one west of Epping Forest on the Midland Highway are continuing to provide difficulties for fire fighters and cause road closures.

A large number of bushfires remain uncontrolled around Tasmania, with one on the North West Coast at Montumana now listed as an emergency warning.
The fire is threatening houses at the small community of Mawbanna, although the Tasmanian Fire Service(TFS) is endeavouring to establish a containment line.
Andrew McGuiness from the TFS said the brigades that are in attendance are having challenges with flukey winds in the area.
"The specific areas up there people need to be vigilant are Sisters Beach, Rocky Cape, Montumana and Mawbanna."
There is a community fire refuge established at the Stanley Recreation Centre, but depending how containment efforts go this evening.
At 6PM tonight there were around 20 people taking shelter there, having left their homes.
Fire fighters are still experiencing breakouts of the fire, but are hopeful that they can contain the fire this evening.
Mawbanna Road from Dip Road to Newhaven Road remains closed.
Watch and Acts in the North

The fires at Bicheno on the East Coast, and Epping Forest on the Midland Highway, continue to cause concern, and are both listed as Watch and Act alerts.
A large grassfire at Barton Road, Epping Forest continues to cast embers, smoke and ash on Isis Road, Valleyfield Road, Macquarie Road through to Campbell Town .
Barton Road from the Midlands Highway and Valleyfield Road from Barton Road to Macquarie Road are both closed.
At the Tasman Highway south of Bicheno there are road closures on Freindly Beaches Road, Courland Bay Road, Tar Hill Fire Trail, Harveys Farm Road and Coles Bay Road.
Embers, smoke and ash may fall on Coles Bay Road south of Apsley River and the Tasman Highway south of Bicheno.
Weather

Although scattered rain is forecast to fall beginning in the west tomorrow morning, the Bureau of Meterology says there is a Very High Fire Danger for eastern Tasmania on Tuesday.
Scattered showers developing about the west, Central Plateau and far south during the morning, with isolated showers about the remainder of the south and possibly about the east coast for a period during the day.
Showers falling as snow about the higher peaks late.
Fine elsewhere apart from areas of morning smoke.
Light to moderate northwesterly winds freshening ahead of a cold, fresh to strong southwesterly change during the day.
The Tasmania Fire Service has declared a total fire ban for Tuesday 08 January for the whole of Tasmania.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


??? another one? They had a strong 7.something earlier this year (or late last year)...
seriously...

BTW...Hi Aussie (IKD why but you're the only one I greet on this blog and IDK why Im saying it now)

Hey Mate! How is it at your place. Here it's a scorcher, and worse tomorrow. I don't mind hot weather but now 109°F is a bit to hot.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Mate! How is it at your place. Here it's a scorcher, and worse tomorrow. I don't mind hot weather but now 109F is a bit to hot.


UFFF!!! 109???
Although I come from a tropical country in Central America (high temps average 70-95F)..Can't handle very well over 100 outside without constantly getting water.
2 years ago here in NYC we got close to 110F... so you have an idea.

In general... i'll undoubtedly prefer the chill.
I not too familiar with the weather in Australia...know though there is a big desert playing a role in weather...temperature, himidity-wise (etc)...

not so sure about wind, pressure etc. patterns. Big storm from the Antarctic hit the Island.

Most tropical/humid weather occurs in the north and east side (e.g. Yasi). There is a lot of vegetation, also in the extreme south and all east coast, also in Tasmania.

...that's as far as I know about Australian climate Aussie.
1014. LargoFl
Good Morning Aussie!..109 whew thats hot..does that kind of temp last very long? or is that a bit unusual for you there?
1015. LargoFl
Good Morning folks!..7-day for Tampa Bay area....
1016. LargoFl
got enough rain here to wet the street gee..........
1017. LargoFl
be somewhat careful tomorrow Texas,heed your warnings..
Mornin' Largo!

Evening Aussie!
1019. LargoFl
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Largo!

Evening Aussie!
hI AND GOOD MORNING!.. so much for that 70% rain yesterday, i hardly got enough to even wet the street lol
1020. LargoFl
1021. barbamz
Morning everybody. Lots of rain in the northeastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Usually rain is very much welcome there (drought in the last years in Israel and neighbouring countries).



Chaos in Israel as rain and winds pound the country

By SHARON UDASIN, MELANIE LIDMAN
LAST UPDATED: 01/07/2013 10:17

Stormy weather causes heavy traffic, shuts down roads, causes damage; snow possible in capital Wednesday, forecasters say.

This weekend's thunderstorms and torrential winds are just the beginning of what will likely be a very wet and perhaps even snowy week.

People should brace themselves for large amounts of rainfall in the next few days, as well as very strong winds particularly on Monday morning and snowfall later this week in Jerusalem, Porat said. The snow, he said, is expected from Wednesday afternoon through noon on Thursday.

The weekend's rainfall wreaked havoc on parts of the central region, with the Herzliya train station shut down until further notice due to massive flooding. After a nearby stream overflowed into the station, leading to the collapse of the drainage system, the station's underground passage and the entire area around the site were flooded including nearby roads and the parking lot, Israel Railways said.

Israel Railways is operating a pump to drain the area in an effort to resume normal service as soon as possible, but until then, will provide alternative transportation between the Herzliya Station and the Tel Aviv Savidor Central Station in both directions.

Meanwhile, the Kinneret basin is seeing continued improvement in its water levels. As of Sunday morning, the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) was 211.82 meters below sea level, 3.02 meters away from being full, according to Water Authority data. During the month of December alone, the water level rose by 50 centimeters, beginning January at 211.90 meters below sea level.

The Water Authority's Hydrological Services called this rise exceptional,the biggest December rise since 1994. Half of that increase occurred over the course of three days, during the heavy rain that occurred from December 20 to 23.

In the capital, not only was it raining, but residents are anticipating the possible arrival of a winter wonderland for the second year in a row.

The Jerusalem Municipality ramped up preparation for the storm expected to slam into the city this week, with winds of more than 80 kilometers per hour and perhaps snow. The city recommended that people check their heating systems to ensure they are working properly and make sure there are no leaks in their roofs or windows.

The capital could experience snow on Wednesday afternoon if the storm retains its strength over the coming days.

Jerusalem has only experienced snow once in the past three years last year. Ahead of the storm, the municipality will increase the number of operators answering the city hotline, *106, who can respond to storm-related inquires including regarding downed trees.

Source: The Jerusalem Post

------------------------

Edit: Live-Blog with a lot of photos from the unusual wet and stormy weather in Israel right now:

Roads close due to flooding, as intense rain pelts Israel from north to south
Public transportation delays and traffic jams reported throughout the country; Herzliya train station closed; Tel Aviv%u2019s Ayalon River overflows
By Times of Israel staff January 7, 2013, 9:22 am
1022. LargoFl
Quoting barbamz:
Morning everybody. Lots of rain in the northeastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Usually rain is very much welcome there (drought in the last years in Israel and neighbouring countries).



Chaos in Israel as rain and winds pound the country

By SHARON UDASIN, MELANIE LIDMAN
LAST UPDATED: 01/07/2013 10:17

Stormy weather causes heavy traffic, shuts down roads, causes damage; snow possible in capital Wednesday, forecasters say.

This weekend’s thunderstorms and torrential winds are just the beginning of what will likely be a very wet and perhaps even snowy week.

People should brace themselves for large amounts of rainfall in the next few days, as well as very strong winds – particularly on Monday morning – and snowfall later this week in Jerusalem, Porat said. The snow, he said, is expected from Wednesday afternoon through noon on Thursday.

The weekend’s rainfall wreaked havoc on part’s of the central region, with the Herzliya train station shut down until further notice due to massive flooding. After a nearby stream overflowed into the station, leading to the collapse of the drainage system, the station’s underground passage and the entire area around the site were flooded – including nearby roads and the parking lot, Israel Railways said.

Israel Railways is operating a pump to drain the area in an effort to resume normal service as soon as possible, but until then, will provide alternative transportation between the Herzliya Station and the Tel Aviv Savidor Central Station in both directions.

Meanwhile, the Kinneret basin is seeing continued improvement in its water levels. As of Sunday morning, the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) was 211.82 meters below sea level, 3.02 meters away from being full, according to Water Authority data. During the month of December alone, the water level rose by 50 centimeters, beginning January at 211.90 meters below sea level.

The Water Authority’s Hydrological Services called this rise “exceptional,” the biggest December rise since 1994. Half of that increase occurred over the course of three days, during the heavy rain that occurred from December 20 to 23.

In the capital, not only was it raining, but residents are anticipating the possible arrival of a winter wonderland – for the second year in a row.

The Jerusalem Municipality ramped up preparation for the storm expected to slam into the city this week, with winds of more than 80 kilometers per hour and perhaps snow. The city recommended that people check their heating systems to ensure they are working properly and make sure there are no leaks in their roofs or windows.

The capital could experience snow on Wednesday afternoon if the storm retains its strength over the coming days.

Jerusalem has only experienced snow once in the past three years – last year. Ahead of the storm, the municipality will increase the number of operators answering the city hotline, *106, who can respond to storm-related inquires including regarding downed trees.

Source: The Jerusalem Post
..Good Morning, hope not too much flooding there..stay safe
1023. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I not too familiar with the weather in Australia...know though there is a big desert playing a role in weather...temperature, himidity-wise (etc)...

not so sure about wind, pressure etc. patterns. Big storm from the Antarctic hit the Island.

Most tropical/humid weather occurs in the north and east side (e.g. Yasi). There is a lot of vegetation, also in the extreme south and all east coast, also in Tasmania.

...that's as far as I know about Australian climate Aussie.


Good enough. lol

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Negative temperatures do not exist

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________


Link

Climate Science Introduction

There is a great deal of confusion among policy makers and the public (see %u201CMediarology%u201D) about many aspects of the science of climate change some of which, it should be said, carry large degrees of uncertainty. However, numerous other aspects are actually scientifically well-established. This combination of high certainty and deep uncertainty is the backdrop against which we must codify our understanding into models of the climate system which include as many relevant components of the Earth atmosphere system as possible, comprising the atmosphere, oceans, snow-ice fields, and soils-ecosystems subsystems. These subsystems are represented by sub-models, which are linked into an Earth systems model, which can be used to project the possible effects and impacts of human activities on future climate %u2014 the problem confronting decision makers at all scales, from the individual level to countrywide or international scales.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. It's back to school this morning, though I've loved my vacation time. They're forecasting several inches of rain for us this week, of course. That means no recess for the kids this week and a couple of extra days to dry the playground out before they'll be able to play outside.
Afternoon, Barbamz, how much snow do you guys have?
1027. barbamz
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Afternoon, Barbamz, how much snow do you guys have?


Nothing, to be true. Not much of a winter in most parts of Germany the last weeks. But there is some hope for the next weekend.
Have a nice day in school. Hope the pupils behave well.
Quoting barbamz:


Nothing, to be true. Not much of a winter in most parts of Germany the last weeks. But there is some hope for the next weekend.
Have a nice day in school. Hope the pupils behave well.


Thanks, Barbamz. We were just talking about there this weekend and wondering. My son was talking about two years ago when they had so much snow. One of these days I hope to get back.
Quoting barbamz:


Nothing, to be true. Not much of a winter in most parts of Germany the last weeks. But there is some hope for the next weekend.
Have a nice day in school. Hope the pupils behave well.

Hey Barbamz, I was watching the downhill skiing the other night, it was from Germany. Very foggy and the only snow looked like it was man-made, everywhere else was green trees and brown ground.
G'morn ladies a gents. Aussie! I tried to read the link in 1024, Wayyyyy too heavy for my sleep clogged brain this early. I'll make coffee then try again.

40.1F on da Bayou Grande this am.
1031. barbamz
Check out this horrible story from China (including the journalistic and political aftermath) on Spiegel English, if you like. Last night there has been a discussion on our blog about the social, economic and ecological conditions in China.


Quote from the article:

Impoverished Province

On that Nov. 15, the city of Bijie, about 1,800 kilometers (1,118 miles) southwest of Beijing, was cloaked in the cool, dense fog for which Guizhou, one of China's poorest provinces, is notorious. It began to drizzle in the afternoon and the temperature fell to 6 degrees Celsius (43 degrees Fahrenheit), the coldest it had been so far that autumn.

A pedestrian noticed five boys playing soccer on the sidewalk along Huandong Lu, a wide street on the city's outskirts. The children, between 9 and 13 years old, were skipping school and had been hanging out in the neighborhood for days. They were wearing filthy parkas and thin cotton trousers, and one of them had no socks. They spent their days in an underpass at the entrance to the local university, begging for money from students, and at night they had slept in a makeshift hut they had built with rubble and tarps on a construction site.

But on the night of Nov. 15, it was so cold that they hit upon a different idea. They climbed into one of five dumpsters, each of them measuring about two by one meters (six by two feet), standing next to the road. Then they lit a fire in the dumpster and closed the four lids from the inside.

At 7:30 the next morning, garbage collector Sun Qingying opened one of the lids. She is 83, lives with her husband in a hut across the street and begins her daily work, as always, at the five dumpsters on Huandong Lu. She retrieved a few pieces of coal from the first dumpster and two plastic bottles from the second one. When she opened the third container, she was initially confronted with the acrid smell of fire, and then she made out five lifeless children lying next to each other. One of them had white foam coming from his mouth and nose. Sun tried to revive the children with a stick, but they didn't wake up. "They're dead! They're dead!" she screamed. A passerby called the police.

(more see link above)

Back to work. Greetings to everyone. And good luck to Australia concerning the heat and the wildfires.
1032. barbamz
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Barbamz, I was watching the downhill skiing the other night, it was from Germany. Very foggy and the only snow looked like it was man-made, everywhere else was green trees and brown ground.


Hey Aussi, I wish I could send some or our moderate winter temperatures to Sydney right now, so you and your country fellows could have a convenient night with sleep.
Barbamz, have a döner for me one of these days. I still miss those.
Quoting barbamz:


Hey Aussi, I wish I could send some or our moderate winter temperatures to Sydney right now, so you and your country fellows could have a convenient night with sleep.

Thanks, It's not meant to get below 30°C(86°F) till the change around 2-3am Wednesday morning. Needless to say, I'll be going to bed once it blows through.
Fiji pro-actively preparing for disasters: minister.

Fiji suffered less damage from Cyclone Evan because of better preparation, says the country's interim Minister for National Disaster Management.

A state of disaster was declared after Evan hit the Pacific island nation last month, causing widespread damage to several cities and forcing thousands of people to flee their homes.

Lieutenant Colonel Inia Seruiratu says preparations began as soon as the cyclone watch was started by the Fiji Weather Service.

He told Radio Australia's Fiji is putting less emphasis on recovering from disasters, and more on minimising the risk of damage.

Lieutenant Colonel Seruiratu says it's not just luck that saw Fiji escape with less damage than Samoa.

"It is a need for us to shift from a culture of reaction to a culture of prevention," he said.
"We need to be proactive, and we need to do a lot of planning and we need to do a lot of analysis because if we prepare, well then obviously, the cost and the damage can be minimised."

Fiji authorities are still working to restore electricity and water supplies in the cyclone-damaged Western Division and some island communities.

In Samoa, Cyclone Evan killed five people and displaced more than 4,000 thousand before hitting Fiji.

At least 12 people are still missing in Samoa in the wake of the devastating cyclone.

© ABC 2013
1036. barbamz
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Barbamz, have a dner for me one of these days. I still miss those.




O.K., lol, though it's turkish originally.

Dner article on wikipedia
Oh!! Now I'm hungry! I know it's Turkish, though I only know it in Germany. They are soooo good! My kids keep saying they should set up a stand here, they'd make a mint of money with them. Thank you.
Worst fire conditions in decades to hit NSW
Posted: 07/01/2013
The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons has declared a state-wide Total Fire Ban for NSW as the State braces for one of its worst fire danger days on record.



The Illawarra, Shoalhaven and Southern Ranges have a fire danger rating of Catastrophic. Widespread areas of the State have a fire danger rating of Extreme.

This is one of the worst fire danger days on record for NSW.

I cannot say it more plainly: the risk is real and potentially deadly. People need to act now, Commissioner Fitzsimmons said.

If you live in bush land or an isolated area where there is a Catastrophic Fire Danger Rating your only option is to leave early. You could move to a built up area, away from bush land, such as the centre of a town.

However, people living in built up areas, well away from bush land, with minimal exposure to vegetation, should monitor conditions and follow their Bush Fire Survival Plan, Commissioner Fitzsimmons said.

More generally, the NSW RFS advises people to:
Prepare a Bush Fire Survival Plan and act on it. It is not too late to do a plan tonight;
Find out where their Neighbourhood Safer Place (place of last resort) is located;
Stay informed via local media, news websites, plus the RFS website, Facebook page and Twitter feed;
Do not travel into any bush fire prone areas; and
Avoid being in a bush fire prone area in the heat of the day.
The NSW RFS is working with local authorities, including NSW Police, to identify and where appropriate, relocate, at risk persons within the Illawarra, Shoalhaven and Southern Ranges. These at risk people may include:
Hospitals and nursing homes;
National Parks, camping grounds and caravan parks;
Education and child care facilities;
Recreational facilities operated by the Department of Sport and Recreation; and
Correction Centres and Juvenile Detention Centres.
Commissioner Fitzsimmons said that the NSW RFS has been preparing for some time for these difficult and dangerous fire conditions.

We have all our RFS volunteers, trucks and tankers on standby, plus the firefighters and resources of Fire and Rescue NSW, National Parks and Forests NSW. Literally thousands of firefighters are on alert for tomorrow.

Around 100 aircraft are ready, including two Air-Cranes.

Our advice to people is to be prepared, stay informed and take action, Commissioner Fitzsimmons said.

Further information, including Bush Fire Survival Plans, details of Neighbourhood Safer Places and the latest Fire Danger Ratings, can be found on the NSW RFS website www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.

People are also encouraged to follow the NSW RFS Facebook page and Twitter account @NSWRFS to get the latest fire information.
Well, the car has been warming to defrost the heavy ice on it, it's 36 degrees here, 33 with wind chill. I guess my classroom is waiting for me. The first day back is always the hardest. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, enjoy your Tuesday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Well, the car has been warming to defrost the heavy ice on it, it's 36 degrees here, 33 with wind chill. I guess my classroom is waiting for me. The first day back is always the hardest. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, enjoy your Tuesday!

I am not going to enjoy my Tuesday, I'll melt in it.
Good morning. Plenty of surfers yesterday in Rincon Puerto Rico.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Why do people make such bold predictions??

Japan Earthquakes %u200F@earthquakejapan
EARTHQUAKE WARNING (7.2 to 7.7) earthquake is likely within 400 kilometers of Tokyo, Japan next 24 hours.


This prediction was made 13hrs ago. If nothing happens in the next 11hrs, this person is a goof-ball.

Somebody predicted a magnitude 7.5 earthquake off the coast of Alaska three weeks ago. Timing was a bit off, but he/she nailed location and strength.

Not sure if it was this user (@earthquakejapan) or not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This person predicted a magnitude 7.5 earthquake off the coast of Alaska three weeks ago. Timing was a bit off, but he/she nailed location and strength.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Anyone could predict a big quake on any active area. But to give a specific time frame is just loony. I predict in the next month there will be a 6.0 quake off the coast of Japan and in Vanuatu. as I said, anyone can do it, it's just the time frame people put to there prediction.

I think the tweeter is @Quakeprediction or something like that.
Tasmanian Bush fire Photo's.



























It is pretty bad when the lowest fire threat level on the map is Very High.

On the good side, I think Aussie and I had the same temperatures at the same time. Just mine were in the early morning, on the other side of the earth, and in Fahrenheit.
1046. MahFL
Remember folks, bush fires and wild fires are part of the Earths natural cycle, they are needed. It's tough luck if your home is burnt to the ground....
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 7 2013
=============================

Multispectral satellite imagery shows no more obvious center in the area. Low level circulation is now organized clockwise around an elongated shear line existing along 12S axis from 81E to 85E. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for a significant deepening in relationship with the both constraint of an easterly vertical wind shear and a bad low level convergence (equatorward westerly flow remains very zonal).

Convective Activity remains fluctuating for several days and mainly extends in the western part of this shear line.

In this area, ECMWF and GFS NWP models keep on deepening a low on and after Wednesday as monsoon flow converges back with the trade winds flow. This model forecast low is then expected to track globally south-westwards on the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge and should then take benefit on a weakening vertical wind-shear below the upper level ridge and on a better low level convergence (more direct monsoon flow and powerful subtropical highs southward). Intensification should then begin thanks to this favorable environmental conditions.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression east of the basin remains poor.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 05U
9:00 PM CST January 7 2012
=========================================

At 8:00 PM CST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) was located near 11.1S 120.9E or 780 km north of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.7S 119.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.0S 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.1S 116.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.3S 115.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position extrapolated based on 0927Z microwave and 0830Z visible MTSAT image, south of Sumba Island. low level circulation center was partially exposed with slightly improved curvature. Latest IR analysis yields 0.3 curved band, DT=2.0. MET and PAT agree. Moderate northeast wind shear has limited the development rate to T0.5/day.

The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected to return to the standard rate as the system becomes more organized and moves closer to the upper ridge axis. Tropical cyclone formation is expected late Tuesday or early Wednesday, then a steady intensification later in the week as the tropical cyclone moves further southwest.

The tropical cyclone is forecast to move closer to the Western Australia coast later in the week under the influence of an approaching upper trough, but its longer term movement is uncertain.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
21:00 PM JST January 6 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (998 hPa) located at 6.3N 108.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 5.0N 107.8E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
Quoting MahFL:
Remember folks, bush fires and wild fires are part of the Earths natural cycle, they are needed. It's tough luck if your home is burnt to the ground....
Wildland blazes are definitely a natural process, and people who knowingly build in thickly-wooded, fire-prone areas do have themselves at least partially to blame. But I don't know that I'd be so callous as to say, "tough luck"; after all, watching your children being devoured by wild animals used to also be "part of the Earths natural cycle"--wolves and bears and tigers gotta eat, don't you know--but I doubt that consoling a grieving parent by telling them "tough luck" would have gone over too well... ;-)
Quoting MahFL:
Remember folks, bush fires and wild fires are part of the Earths natural cycle, they are needed. It's tough luck if your home is burnt to the ground....


Even tougher luck if you're a koala up in a tree.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Why do people make such bold predictions??

Japan Earthquakes ‏@earthquakejapan
EARTHQUAKE WARNING (7.2 to 7.7) earthquake is likely within 400 kilometers of Tokyo, Japan next 24 hours.


This prediction was made 13hrs ago. If nothing happens in the next 11hrs, this person is a goof-ball.


...Why? Pretty simple, really. Eventually they will 'hit', and cash in on it.

An old stock racket version of the same maneuver went like this: The stock shop would arrange for 10,000 mailings of a news letter. For each 2,000 mailings though, they would have a unique letter go out under a different name, some projecting the markets and particular stocks this way, others that way. One of those five different versions would hit things out pretty good. They would then visit or call those 2000 marks saying "See? We're good! We're prophets! Let us invest your money and become rich! You can't miss!" They would then flush that hot and sweaty capital through whatever pump 'n dumps they had ready to roll, say "Oops! It wasn't our fault! Yada yada yada, but this next one is real good!", soak 'em again and then disappear to resurface somewhere else and run the ruse again.

So, If you run around screaming in some limited market that this month California (or wherever) is going to have a big quake and you miss, just move on to the next market, scream the same thing.... eventually you will hit and can cash in however you like ... publish a book you have already to go, lectures and talk shows, and hope to leverage your way up.
1053. LargoFl
hmmm dunno what to believe anymore,he said 70% yesterday,got a few drops,my local guy must be drinking lol
1054. LargoFl
hmmm now 80% lol.........
1055. ARiot
Quoting MahFL:
Remember folks, bush fires and wild fires are part of the Earths natural cycle, they are needed. It's tough luck if your home is burnt to the ground....



That's true, but the "natural cycle" in many places has been significantly changed in many ways by man's activity.

A few things to think about:

- development brings with it invasive species that change the game

- we put out fires that help the native plants (since they evolved for those natural fires) and that leads to a built-up fuel source making fires bigger and faster

- AGW has allowed a specific type of wood beetle to breed twice a year, rather than once, turing strong stands into flame bait in the U.S.

Impressive rain predictions. 0% for Ocala and Gainesville right next to 90% and 80% for Brooksville and Daytona Beach!
They KNOW where it is going to land!
WOW! I don't remember them being this decisive before.
My next 48hrs......

1058. LargoFl
Quoting biff4ugo:
Impressive rain predictions. 0% for Ocala and Gainesville right next to 90% and 80% for Brooksville and Daytona Beach!
They KNOW where it is going to land!
WOW! I don't remember them being this decisive before.
yeah we will see how it goes today, was overcast here awhile ago, now skies are clearing,but its cooler than this morning with a breeze
1059. LargoFl
guess there's a game down in south florida?...
Looking like some showers for TX this week
1061. LargoFl
GFS says more showers here today..............
1062. LargoFl
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like some showers for TX this week
Rita be careful over there mid week, nws said some spots might pick up 6-7 inches of rain..thats alot huh...






LargoFl ~

You are by far one of the best posters here.

You always post relevant weather related information, maps, and graphs.

I love it.

Keep up the good work!








Quoting LargoFl:
Rita be careful over there mid week, nws said some spots might pick up 6-7 inches of rain..thats alot huh...


Yes, but I'll believe it when I see it
1065. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:
My next 48hrs......


Really big fluctuation there Aussie.
Temps like those would confuse my body's thermostat big time !
Models backing off on rain amounts, leaves Central TX dry

1067. LargoFl
Quoting TomballTXPride:






LargoFl ~

You are by far one of the best posters here.

You always post relevant weather related information, maps, and graphs.

I love it.

Keep up the good work!








Thanks I try to get the warnings out so people can prepare best they can..enjoy the rains there this week,out to help the drought a lil...
1068. LargoFl
1069. LargoFl
Looks reasonable, most stays offshore

Quoting LargoFl:
be somewhat careful tomorrow Texas,heed your warnings..
Good Morning Largo, last time Austin had over 1 inch of rain in 1 day was 99 days ago, that should end Tuesday. Have a great day!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning Largo, last time Austin had over 1 inch of rain in 1 day was 99 days ago, that should end Tuesday. Have a great day!


Good luck out there Dennis
1073. LargoFl
good they are doing this before the hurricane season...WEATHER DEPENDING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE A DUAL POLARIZATION UPGRADE TO THE
NWS DOPPLER RADAR IN SHREVEPORT. THE UPGRADE WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...
JANUARY 21 2013...AND LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THE DOPPLER RADAR WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL THE UPGRADE IS COMPLETE.

SINCE THE UPGRADE WILL CAUSE THE SHREVEPORT DOPPLER RADAR TO BE
OUT OF SERVICE AND UNAVAILABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE
DOWN TIME...THE NWS OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT WILL USE SURROUNDING RADARS
FOR COVERAGE...SUCH AS THOSE IN FORT POLK LOUISIANA...LITTLE ROCK AND
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS...AND FORT WORTH TEXAS.

&&
1074. LargoFl
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning Largo, last time Austin had over 1 inch of rain in 1 day was 99 days ago, that should end Tuesday. Have a great day!
good morning!!..if this pans out, enjoy the rains!!..one thing i noticed this morning, they took out most of the severe warnings..lets see what happens tomorrow am...
1076. LargoFl
the farther away from the gulf the less rain.....
Quoting RitaEvac:


Good luck out there Dennis
Thanks you too, I am so not concerned about a flood here but I can see East and Southeast Texas getting flooded.
Quoting TomballTXPride:






LargoFl ~

You are by far one of the best posters here.

You always post relevant weather related information, maps, and graphs.

I love it.

Keep up the good work!








I would agree with that about 150 percent, I sign on and check out Largo's maps and I am good for the day, LOL
1079. LargoFl


You shall not pass?
1082. LargoFl
tuesday plse heed your local warnings still too far out to predict severe stuff ok.............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BIG BEND
AREA OF TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION INCLUDING NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY. FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT DO DISCERN THIS FAR...BUT
WITH MORE INSTABILITY ALONG AND NEAR A WARM FRONT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER TEXAS AND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE EAST...THE RISK FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

06
1083. VR46L
Quoting RitaEvac:


I dont think it will look quite like that come next Week lol ...(I know that its a monthly chart) but I doubt it will be as grim looking next month...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Be nice to see these colors lighten up even more, huge thing about a drought is that it mentally wears on you, all the negative you see and hear, it takes its toll on you. For those in the World going thru droughts and fires like Aussie currently I feel for you and I understand what you are going through. At least there are not any fire dangers here that is a huge relief.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Somebody predicted a magnitude 7.5 earthquake off the coast of Alaska three weeks ago. Timing was a bit off, but he/she nailed location and strength.

Not sure if it was this user (@earthquakejapan) or not.


I dislike the prediction anyway...
At it's worst for TX







1087. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:


I dont think it will look quite like that come next Week lol ...(I know that its a monthly chart but I doubt it will be as grim looking next month...




You know Liz, I tend to agree with that.

It's the same old song and dance for the gloom and doom posters here.

Remember this: Beginning of December 2011.



And then came this:










And that equaled this: Beginning of April 2012



Nuff Said.
1089. LargoFl
wow those northwestern states get some bad storms huh...
1090. LargoFl
Looks like Chicago is warming up some.......
1091. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:




You know Liz, I tend to agree with that.

It's the same old song and dance for the gloom and doom posters here.

Remember this:



And then came this:










And that equaled this:



Nuff Said.


Yeah , I guess some folk see a half full glass while others half empty... I am a half full glass kind of person LOL
Quoting TomballTXPride:




You know Liz, I tend to agree with that.

It's the same old song and dance for the gloom and doom posters here.

Remember this: Beginning of December 2011.



And then came this:










And that equaled this: Beginning of April 2012



Nuff Said.


So that's your prediction?
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah , I guess some folk see a half full glass while others half empty... I am a half full glass kind of person LOL







Precisely.











No different from some who want category 5's barreling toward the U.S. coast.

No different.

Sensationalism is the key word here.






Quoting VR46L:


Yeah , I guess some folk see a half full glass while others half empty... I am a half full glass kind of person LOL
Optimism is good--but I've found that some are so blinded by optimism and/or denial that they see the glass half full when it's really got just a few drops left in it. I'm personally neither an optimistic "glass half-full" nor a pessimistic "glass half-empty" type; I'm just a realist. I think that's the best way to be...
1096. bappit
Quoting MahFL:
Remember folks, bush fires and wild fires are part of the Earths natural cycle, they are needed. It's tough luck if your home is burnt to the ground....

From the USDA Forest Service:

"Homeowners and others are not powerless against wildfires. In fact, homeowners who exercise common sense tactics, such as clearing brush and debris away from structures, play a vital role in slowing the spread of fire and protecting their property."

This 2011 news release lists some things to do.

Edit:Also check out www.firewise.org.
1097. VR46L
.
Quoting TomballTXPride:







Precisely.








Funny enough very rarely are the less pessimistic 8-14 day charts published on this forum.
1098. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
Optimism is good--but I've found that some are so blinded by optimism and/or denial that they see the glass half full when it's really got just a few drops left in it. I'm personally neither an optimistic "glass half-full" nor a pessimistic "glass half-empty" type; I'm just a realist. I think that's the best way to be...


When Pandora's box was opened all that was left was hope...I know its only a fable . but its the way I choose to lead my life and if you can label that denial then I wont see the negativity that I perceived previously from that label , instead as a label of optimism ..
Quoting RitaEvac:
When I see purple and red regions next to white regions that don't need a drop...I know you can take this map and shove it,

Seriously? When the drought started more than two years ago, my part of Harris County was bone dry more than two feet down into the soil while 15 miles away was still running a surplus and flooding. Obviously the map is not that granular.
Perhaps the idea is to prepare for the worst then feel either shorted or blessed by the actual result.  Avoiding the "you didn't tell us to expect a flood."
Quoting VR46L:
.

Funny enough very rarely are the lest pessimistic 8-14 day charts published

Quoting bluheelrtx:

Seriously? When the drought started more than two years ago, my part of Harris County was bone dry more than two feet down into the soil while 15 miles away was still running a surplus and flooding. Obviously the map is not that granular.


I have a hard time believing that
Philippines typhoon after effects linger on.

A United Nations report says nearly a million people are in need of food assistance in the south-eastern Philippines.

It says they are still suffering the effects of being displaced a month after powerful typhoon Bopha devastated the region.

The typhoon has killed more than 1,000 people and left more than 800 others missing.

Shirley Escalante reports that Philippines social welfare officials and the World Food Program say food packs have been distributed to 238,000 people, and school feeding programs will be launched to meet the needs of those requiring assistance.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports only a fifth of the UN's appeal for $US65 million in aid has been met.

The governor of the Philippines province of Albay, Joey Salceda, says countries whose greenhouse emissions caused climate change should bear a larger responsibility for its victims.

The province is regularly hit by storms and he has decried the slow international response.



ABC 2013
1103. bappit
The effects of the 2011 Texas drought were still making themselves felt in 2012. Ground was still settling under roads and houses. I see lots of damage to asphalt roads where the road near the shoulder is a couple inches lower than the middle with cracks in the middle of the lane. Don't want to think about all the cracked slabs.
Another vote for 'stratospheric warming' with NA cooling resulting:


Brutal Cold Waves Could be Heading for the U.S.

Link

"...According to Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok, "The early indications are that the initial thrust of the brutal cold will be directed over the Northwest, northern Rockies or northern Plains first, with subsequent waves reaching farther east..."

Yo! Weather Gods! Give it to the east coasters... they keep asking for snow!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Optimism is good--but I've found that some are so blinded by optimism and/or denial that they see the glass half full when it's really got just a few drops left in it. I'm personally neither an optimistic "glass half-full" nor a pessimistic "glass half-empty" type; I'm just a realist. I think that's the best way to be...

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???



To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you. Just curious, that's all.


Anyways, Currently 22.3*C(72.1*F)
Updated at 02:00 EDT

and headed up already. Wish us all luck. Goodnight.
1106. bappit
Quoting RitaEvac:
Models backing off on rain amounts, leaves Central TX dry


We'll see. The Houston-Galveston discussion this morning:

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE NAM FOCUS MORE OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER SE TEXAS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS... SLOWER CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY SLOTTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTN ENDING THE PRECIP MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM NEVER BRINGS THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUT THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST STRONG DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE. WISH THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SE TX COULD GET DRY SLOTTED BY 18Z IF THE 00Z GFS IS CORRECT.
1107. pcola57
Morning all..
Just posted on my blog..
I'm trying to get better at it..
It's titled:
2012--Year in Pictures--

Please stop in and leave comments so I can keep getting better on my posts..
TIA.. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:


I have a hard time believing that
You would get along well with my wife. Before we married (16 months ago), she lived 20 miles away. She was alway skeptical when it was flooding at her house and I still had not seen rain in weeks. Now she understands.
1109. bappit
Quoting VR46L:


When Pandora's box was opened all that was left was hope...I know its only a fable . but its the way I choose to lead my life and if you can label that denial then I wont see the negativity that I perceived previously from that label , instead as a label of optimism ..

Optimism might be interpreted as what some people call mindfulness. Seems that there is a perverse slant to this.

Wisdom from Psychopaths

It comes from a book titled The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success.
1110. MahFL
Quoting Neapolitan:
...watching your children being devoured by wild animals used to also be "part of the Earths natural cycle"--wolves and bears and tigers gotta eat, don't you know--but I doubt that consoling a grieving parent by telling them "tough luck" would have gone over too well... ;-)


A burnt bulding and eaten children are not the same thing. Mother Nature is 100 % callus.
Quoting MahFL:


A burnt bulding and eaten children are not the same thing. Mother Nature is 100 % callus.








I tend to agree.

I thought the analogy was a little off.








1112. MahFL
Quoting yonzabam:


Even tougher luck if you're a koala up in a tree.


Funny though how Koala's remain a viable species.
1113. bappit
Quoting RitaEvac:


I have a hard time believing that

Rain is not as uniform as you seem to think. The totals can drop off rather sharply.
Quoting AussieStorm:

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???

To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you.
Why ask a question for which you don't expect an answer? ;-)

At any rate, if someone brought me a glass tumbler just like that in the photo and asked me how much it held, I'd answer, "It's about half full of water, and half full of air." But context also matters. If, for instance, it were a full drink I'd just paid for, I'd complain to the bartender that it was half empty. But if I were the bar's owner and saw my bartender give that to a customer who'd only paid for a shot of vodka, I'd complain that it was half full.

And that's the point of this exercise, I guess. In short, there are few absolutes in life. It's packed with ambiguities; grey areas abound. And, as I said, I'm a realist. That means I would call it as honestly as I see it--and that could change numerous times over the course of a day. Or an hour. Or a minute...
Quoting bappit:

Rain is not as uniform as you seem to think. The totals can drop off rather sharply.


I'm aware of that
1116. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

Optimism might be interpreted as what some people call mindfulness. Seems that there is a perverse slant to this.

Wisdom from Psychopaths

It comes from a book titled The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success.


I get what you are getting at LOL .. I dont want to bring the subject up in a good mood today but I never said it does not exist.. But I enjoy your posts they make me think !!
Quoting AussieStorm:

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???



To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you. Just curious, that's all.


Anyways, Currently 22.3*C(72.1*F)
Updated at 02:00 EDT

and headed up already. Wish us all luck. Goodnight.


To me, averted vision produces an optical illusion where the bottom half of the glass is wider than the top. Therefore, when I drink from the glass, it will be completely empty.

South Australia could really use some of that water ... still can't believe they're getting 40C temperatures in Tasmania!
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I tend to agree.I thought the analogy was a little off.
You're certainly free to feel that way. But I'm always comforted by the knowledge that though an analogy may go over the heads of some, that in no way lessens its effectiveness.
Quoting AussieStorm:

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???



To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you. Just curious, that's all.


Anyways, Currently 22.3*C(72.1*F)
Updated at 02:00 EDT

and headed up already. Wish us all luck. Goodnight.
glass is always full either with air or water in this case half water half air equals full gas and liquid
oh joy neapolitan and tomball texas are at in again,,flexing arms to see who have bigger muscle,,why.Why must this happen.everyday this go on in here.
Quoting AussieStorm:

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???



To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you. Just curious, that's all.


Anyways, Currently 22.3*C(72.1*F)
Updated at 02:00 EDT

and headed up already. Wish us all luck. Goodnight.


May I comment on this? Realistically, what I see, it is that you have twice as much glass as what is necessary to contain the water. ... OK, back to your regularly scheduled program.
Quoting stormchaser43:
oh joy neapolitan and tomball texas are at in again,,flexing arms to see who has bigger muscle,,why.Why must this happen.everyday this goes on in here.

Is debating a problem?
Quoting stormchaser43:
oh joy neapolitan and tomball texas are at in again,,flexing arms to see who has bigger muscle,,why.Why must this happen.everyday this goes on in here.
It's called "a forum": a place where ideas and views are exchanged.

My own question: why is polite dialog considered going "at it again" or "flexing arms"? And a followup question: why don't those who are bothered by it simply place me (and/or Tomball) on ignore? It's quite simple, really... ;-)
1125. LargoFl
1126. LargoFl
1127. LargoFl
1128. LargoFl
texas Low will be a big storm later on around chicago..
Quoting AussieStorm:

So... to you, realistically is this glass half full or half empty???



To me it's half full. Btw, I don't expect an answer from you. Just curious, that's all.


Anyways, Currently 22.3*C(72.1*F)
Updated at 02:00 EDT

and headed up already. Wish us all luck. Goodnight.


If that was Lindsay Lohan's glass I'd say 80 proof and def completely empty :-)

Happy Monday all. Hoping this rainmaker pans out here in the South.
1130. LargoFl
gee............
Quoting calkevin77:


If that was Lindsay Lohan's glass I'd say 80 proof and def completely empty :-)

Happy Monday all. Hoping this rainmaker pans out here in the South.








LMAO!!!!






1132. LargoFl
1133. DFWdad
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


May I comment on this? Realistically, what I see, it is that you have twice as much glass as what is necessary to contain the water. ... OK, back to your regularly scheduled program.


Nice, do I detect a mechanical engineer? I know a few...
Quoting stormchaser43:
oh joy neapolitan and tomball texas are at in again,,flexing arms to see who have bigger muscle,,why.Why must this happen.everyday this go on in here.







Ahh, it's harmless.

It's just friendly arguing, if you can believe it.

You should see us back and forth in Ricky's Blog.

It can get pretty intense in there.

Afterall, it's the Climate Change Blog.

So a little advice: You might want to stay out of there!!!







Not sure if this has been posted or not:

At the conclusion of each hurricane season NOAA conducts a review of operations and considers options to enhance its products and services. Following the annual post-season NOAA Hurricane Meeting that took place in November 2012, the NWS will be exploring two proposals that, if adopted, would result in some changes to National Weather Service (NWS) products and warnings. The first of these proposed changes originates from the unique situation posed by Hurricane Sandy; it would give the National Hurricane Center (NHC) the option to continue issuing formal advisories on post-tropical cyclones as long as those systems pose a significant threat to life and property, and it would give the NWS the option to keep hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings in place for those systems. The second proposal would set a target date of 2015 for NOAA to implement explicit Storm Surge Watches and Warnings, a goal NOAA has been working toward for several years. The NWS Office of Climate, Weather, and Water Services (OCWWS) will review these two proposals in conjunction with a Hurricane Sandy service assessment and the NWS looks forward to continued engagement with its partners and users about these proposals.

See more: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130107_pa_hurricane Program.pdf
1136. LargoFl
.NOW...

A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL NOT SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S TREASURE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...WILL ADD A CHILL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST BUT ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID DAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&
1137. Patrap
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012

Preliminary data dated January 3, 2013


Quoting bappit:

We'll see. The Houston-Galveston discussion this morning:

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE NAM FOCUS MORE OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER SE TEXAS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS... SLOWER CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY SLOTTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTN ENDING THE PRECIP MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM NEVER BRINGS THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUT THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST STRONG DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE. WISH THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SE TX COULD GET DRY SLOTTED BY 18Z IF THE 00Z GFS IS CORRECT.

12Z GFS is way more aggressive with the rain totals and looks quite similar in result to the 00Z CMC.



12Z GFS for Thursday 12Z (@ 72 hours)



00Z CMC for Thursday 12Z (@ 84 hours)
This January is going to suck.I take it spring is coming early this year again?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This January is going to suck.I take it spring is coming early this year again?.






No, it's not.

Have you seen the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS? You will get your snow, Washingtonian115.

Sorry to hear about your Redskins and RG3.






d.c. baltimore area will get snow some time.we will we will we will
Quoting TomballTXPride:






No, it's not.

Have you seen the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS? You will get your snow, Washingtonian115.

Sorry to hear about your Redskins and RG3.






TexasTombell they should have put Cousins in instead of keep RG3 in.
It's just that when it should be cold it should be cold.Not highs in the 60's and 70's.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1144. Patrap
Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
1145. Patrap


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.


The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.


Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.

Global average temperature is one of the most-cited indicators of global climate change, and shows an increase of approximately 1.4°F since the early 20th Century. The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites. There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes. Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years.

Doesn't look to be an event with much instability.

1147. pcola57
Quoting TomballTXPride:







Ahh, it's harmless.

It's just friendly arguing, if you can believe it.

You should see us back and forth in Ricky's Blog.

It can get pretty intense in there.

Afterall, it's the Climate Change Blog.

So a little advice: You might want to stay out of there!!!









I know what your saying Tomball..
But realistically should we turn a blind eye to the subject?
Been in there several times and have learned alot..
don't post in there however as I'm still learning on the subject and it wouldn't be productive..
By the way I see you post in there quite often..
Quoting DFWdad:


Nice, do I detect a mechanical engineer? I know a few...


No, I am not an engineer of any type. I am, however, mechanically inclined. You can show me any piece of machinery and I can tell you how you can break it. :-)