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Super Typhoon Vongfong Winds Hit 180 mph: Earth's Strongest Storm Since Haiyan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2014

Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan is Super Typhoon Vongfong. Vongfang is in the midst of a very impressive bought of rapid intensification that took it from a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 18 UTC Monday to Category 5 strength with 180 mph winds at 18 UTC Tuesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC.) These are the highest winds of any tropical cyclone they have rated since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 195 mph winds of November 7, 2013 (JTWC's post-season analysis showed Haiyan weakened slightly to 190 mph winds at landfall in the Philippines.) The 18:45 UTC October 7 advisory for Vongfong from the Japan Meteorological Agency put the storm's central pressure at 900 mb--the lowest of any typhoon they have rated since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 895 mb pressure of November 7, 2013.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Vongfong as seen in moonlight at 17:03 UTC (1:03 pm EDT) on October 7, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.

Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of 2014
Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of the year, and the second in the Western Pacific. The other Western Pacific Cat 5 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis. The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Vongfong a threat to Japan
Vongfong passed through the U.S. Mariana islands of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian on Sunday as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, causing mostly minor damage. The typhoon is expected to turn to the north by Thursday, and is a threat to hit Japan next Monday. Satellite loops show Vongfong is an extremely impressive storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, excellent upper-level outflow, and a large 30-mile diameter eye. With the typhoon over warm waters of 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, continued intensification is possible. The 5 pm EDT Tuesday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted that Vongfong would top out with sustained 190 mph winds at 2 pm EDT on Wednesday. Cooler waters and higher wind shear will induce weakening later in the week as the typhoon approaches Japan.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It's shocking to see how powerful this year's Western Pacific storms have been.
Thanks Dr. Masters


PIC: Severe warned storm earlier on main street in Paris, KY #KYwx [Via: Matt Taylor]
Thanks Doc.We haven't seen anything impressive since Igor in the Atlantic.
models dump sw carib now nav. is teasing carib boy
New 18Z Sfc charts out

Low is still in SW Caribbean

Tropical wave moving into the E Pac

I think the SW Caribbean Low will remain in the Caribbean and become that tropical system that's been forecasted to be in the Caribbean GOM

The tropical wave moves into E Pac and make create a new low there
1013mb for right now (New 18z Chart came out, this is a old chart), gonna deepen slightly while it moves WNW, won't be surprised to see the NHC mention it soon.
JTWC FORECASTS FOR 19W:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
18Z NAM is still prediction the Caribbean Low.

84 hours
Quoting Climate175:
1012mb for right now.
Look at that massive wave by Africa, it looks good.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO
12N60W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 16N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
17N WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
Quoting Climate175:
1012mb for right now, gonna deepen slightly while it moves WNW, won't be surprised to see the NHC mention it soon.


Not according to new 18Z charts

Quoting 10. Andrebrooks:

Look at that massive wave by Africa, it looks good.
I have been keeping my eye on that wave as long as the one just NE of the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean system is not the only thing to watch, the models aren't gospel, there are many other things to keep an eye on even if the models are or are not showing it.
Quoting 12. wunderkidcayman:



Not according to new 18Z charts


1013 mb, still is gonna deepen slowly.
Vongfong sure looks mighty purrty
amazing!
RGB colored Day Night Band imagery

credit: supercane4867 - storm2k
Starting between October 16th-23rd the eastern 2/3 of the U.S should see record-cold(including Florida) thanks to Vongfong which is expected to recurve to Japan then northeast just south of the Aleutians. All else being equal, this will set up a powerful full-latitude trough over the East!
Experimental FIM ensembles:



Experimental GFS ensembles:

Quoting Climate175:
1013 mb, still is gonna deepen slowly.

1013 to 1014 is not deepening
Quoting 1. rmbjoe1954:

It's shocking to see how powerful this year's Western Pacific storms have been.


Not really, we are seeing the Highest SST's on record. That is why June to August was the hottest in the record.
And they are weighting in, the events in Southern France over the last month make my point . And none of them were cyclones. Every system now carries more energy , and that energy begins with heat in the oceans. The Earth's surface is 70 % water. Water is base line for measuring heat. Nothing in nature holds more heat than water . Water has thermal mass . Air , and granite don't even come close.

So when we see SST's in Hawaii of 90 F degrees at this time of the year , buckle your chin strap.
Quoting 16. abcdeer:

amazing!
RGB colored Day Night Band imagery

credit: supercane4867 - storm2k
we today are witnessing weather history with this hurricane.
Quoting 17. weatherbro:

Starting between October 16th-23rd the eastern 2/3 of the U.S should see record-cold(including Florida) thanks to Vongfong which is expected to recurve to Japan then northeast just south of the Aleutians. All else being equal, this will set up a powerful full-latitude trough over the East!

336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:

Quoting 19. wunderkidcayman:


1013 to 1014 is not deepening
I am just gonna sit back and relax without any discussion, nature does what it wants to do, deepening or not deepening.
Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:

336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:



Oh goody, last winter all over again.

Edit: Getting pretty sick of warm and dry.
Wow.

Quoting 24. TimSoCal:



Oh goody, last winter all over again.
Didn't mind really the cold last winter.
Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:


336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:


If you see this it appears that the pattern does not want to change.So we could be in for another cold and snowy winter on the east coast.
Quoting 1. rmbjoe1954:

It's shocking to see how powerful this year's Western Pacific storms have been.


This why England had the wettest winter in their recorded history last winter .

These events are all part of a bigger picture. The water cycle is getting more muscles.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:


I hope not
I amongst many would really enjoy that
Surf-forecast.com is now calling for 36-foot surf hitting the Okinawa / Ryukyu coast on Saturday. Open ocean waves associated with Vongfong are forecast to be 45 or more feet.

It's great that they have this much lead time to arrange evacuations. Here's hoping we don't see anyone trying to stand outside to take pictures of the big waves the way we did with Phanfone. Or trying to surf it.
Quoting 27. washingtonian115:

If you see this it appears that the pattern does not want to change.So we could be in for another cold and snowy winter on the east coast.

The odds appear in our favor, especially given the anomalously warm North Pacific waters.
As system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes, there it gets stuck , before swinging wildly to the other extreme.
33. vis0

Quoting 10. Andrebrooks:

Look at that massive wave by Africa, it looks good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka3MSll37J8 Titled:: No no you be the next no you , as so many POI to watch, will any develope, stay tuned. (Trouble in getting embed codes at youtube)
Incredible.

Quoting 27. washingtonian115:

If you see this it appears that the pattern does not want to change.So we could be in for another cold and snowy winter on the east coast.

You're going to predict the whole winter with one model run 336 hours out? Gimme a break.
Wow at Vongfong! Even if it does weaken, it'll still bring a lot of big waves and a high storm surge with it. I hope it doesn't do much damage to Japan!

99B:



ASCAT got a good pass on it earlier:



Given that via ASCAT it was on the verge of being a tropical storm and that the presentation has improved from earlier (the center is currently under some very intense convection) I would say that 99B is likely TS Hudhud now. Based on the models and current conditions ahead of it, I would say it'll peak as a low end category 4 storm. Although would not be surprised if it managed to reach category 5 status briefly.
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:


I hope not
I amongst many would really enjoy that


Just what the pine beetles ordered.
Quoting 35. bwtranch:


You're going to predict the whole winter with one model run 336 hours out? Gimme a break.
Lol.Won't you give me a break.The pattern has been stuck like that for a while.I'm not basing it off of a model run.I'm basing it off the pattern i see shaping up now.Give me a break.



Looks really bad for Okinawa area
Quoting 37. ColoradoBob1:



Just what the pine beetles ordered.

I'm sure the people in California with no water are really behind it also. ~
Quoting 32. ColoradoBob1:

As system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes, there it gets stuck , before swinging wildly to the other extreme.
The climate models and some forecasters have been saying that there could be more and stronger, or fewer but much stronger, tropical storms -- but they didn't specify in what basin they would occur. I think we are seeing some of that this year in the Pacific, which is several times larger than the Atlantic, with much greater potential to warm up with solar heating. It would not surprise me to see 2014 as the beginning of a period of more frequent, stronger, and more destructive Pacific hurricanes/typhoons, while the moisture stays out there and California and the far West US dry up and blow away.
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:


I hope not
I amongst many would really enjoy that


While I love seeing the map all patriotically done in red, white, and blue (and likely will be for the election), I hope this pattern doesn't persist through the entire winter. I got so tired of digging out my car last winter not having a garage (townhouse living...blech) and fighting walking pneumonia and deadly deadlines all at the same time. Can we put in our order for the perfect winter now? (Can you guess I live on the blue side? and why does it look like a big hand slapping the eastern part of the country [thumb in the Atlantic]?) Thanks for posting this though. It's good to be prepared.
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Incredible.




Welcome to the future. The debate was will we have more cyclones , or bigger cyclones , well the early voting says both.
Quoting 38. ncstorm:



Fall fading away??
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I need a link to that image.
Quoting 28. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 1. rmbjoe1954:

It's shocking to see how powerful this year's Western Pacific storms have been.


This why England had the wettest winter in their recorded history last winter .

These events are all part of a bigger picture. The water cycle is getting more muscles.


The UK/Ireland's wet winter was more to do with the jet stream getting stuck in a set pattern and being unsually stronger than normal. That lead to the storms that went over the US bombing out over the Atlantic as they were rushed across towards the UK/Ireland. Normally we expect this every so often during winter, but not to the extent we saw last winter. There were two separate events. One from mid-December-early January & then from late January-mid February. There were at least 12 major storms that battered the UK in those periods. Normally we'd expect maybe a couple major storms, not 12+. I really do hope that this winter doesn't do a repeat.
GFS develops the low in the EPAC.
Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:

336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:



LOL. Good luck with that. Mid West I would say yes but not the east. Look at the Euro. GFS has just been terrible lately.
Quoting 45. sporteguy03:


Fall fading away??



might have to go to the beach to build a "snowman" if the pattern stays..

Quoting 40. nwobilderburg:




Looks really bad for Okinawa area


Well, Japan is one of the "best" places in the world for these types of events at least. Great infrastructure and experience from being hit so many times in the past, so hopefully there will be no or very little loss of life.
Quoting 44. ColoradoBob1:



Welcome to the future. The debate was will we have more cyclones , or bigger cyclones , well the early voting says both.

Tropical cyclones of this magnitude are not at all uncommon at this time of the year in the West Pacific.

Quoting 46. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I need a link to that image.

Link

Quoting 49. StormTrackerScott:



LOL. Good luck with that. Mid West I would say yes but not the east. Look at the Euro. GFS has just been terrible lately.

We should see a stretch of warmer than average temperatures for most of the lower 48 through about October 20 or so. After that time, a combination of the recurvatures of Phanfone and Vongfong, as well as the progression of the MJO into octants 1 and 2, should allow for a cold end to October.
Quoting 45. sporteguy03:


Fall fading away??
Lol.Still out for revenge XD.First they were the enemies of the big bad red maps.Now they've been fan girling it every chance they get to try and make sure cold temps and snow aren't discussed.lolol.
In fact, when one posts an image link here , it would be really helpful if these links were posted with the source . So they could be used over the web.

For those following every run of the GFS, the 18z run does not develop an Atlantic cyclone through day 5, but instead shows a hurricane in the East Pacific:

Super Typhoon Vongfong Winds will go up to 185 mph or 190 mph soon
Quoting 55. TropicalAnalystwx13:

For those following every run of the GFS, the 18z run does not develop an Atlantic cyclone through day 5, but instead shows a hurricane in the East Pacific:


That is like the smallest hurricane I've ever seen portrayed on models.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
GFS develops the low in the EPAC.

I'll wait for 00Z run to see if this is a new developing trend or if this 18Z run is a one off
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The odds appear in our favor, especially given the anomalously warm North Pacific waters.



the anomalously warm in the North Pacific waters has cooled way down wish is good news them waters where well above norml now they are back too close too where they sould be



this is how it looked AUG 4th with the vary warm waters where at there peak up buy the gulf of AK they have cooled way down since then so there for things may be a little more warmmer this year in the mid W and not has cold




its all ways good too do a little looking around be makeing a post has you could be wrong
Does this mean no development in SWC?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
GFS develops the low in the EPAC.
Wowza!

Vongfong~ getting close to the top of the chart..



Click pic for loop.

Quoting washingtonian115:
That is like the smallest hurricane I've ever seen portrayed on models.


It's like Marco of 2008 with hurricane force winds


To be Honest and to give MHO

This I think is just a one off run and nah gonna happen

I mean it is possible that the E Pac may see another hurricane but not a... "Microcane"

I still think we will see a W CARIB system
If I see next run and the few runs after that and there is a trend for E PAC storm then I'll start to buy the idea
Quoting 52. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical cyclones of this magnitude are not at all uncommon at this time of the year in the West Pacific.


Link


We should see a stretch of warmer than average temperatures for most of the lower 48 through about October 20 or so. After that time, a combination of the recurvatures of Phanfone and Vongfong, as well as the progression of the MJO into octants 1 and 2, should allow for a cold end to October.


According to the Euro the Mid West as a ridge dominates most of the eat specially the SE US. Lets just say FL has seen its last front for the next 2 weeks atleast.
Quoting 59. Tazmanian:




the anomalously warm in the North Pacific waters has cooled way down wish is good news them waters where well above norml now they are back too close too where they sould be



this is how it looked AUG 4th with the vary warm waters where at there peak up buy the gulf of AK they have cooled way down since then so there for things may be a little more warmmer this year in the mid W and not has cold




its all ways good too do a little looking around be makeing a post has you could be wrong

Regardless of whether they're cooler than they were two months ago, waters in the North Pacific are still anomalously warm, meaning ridging should continue to set up shop south of Alaska. This is a key feature for winter.

Thanks though, Taz..

Tropical cyclones of this magnitude are not at all uncommon at this time of the year in the West Pacific.

Tell that to the Philippines, Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Japan.
Hmmm 180hrs on 18Z GFS


Quoting 58. wunderkidcayman:


I'll wait for 00Z run to see if this is a new developing trend or if this 18Z run is a one off
Lol ok 18Z GFS a
SW CARIB low becomes E PAC Microcane which landfalls and reforms into W CARIB system N of Honduras

Yeah sorry not buying 18Z run at all

But as I said before if a strong trend start into that direction then I'll buy it
Quoting 63. wunderkidcayman:



It's like Marco of 2008 with hurricane force winds


To be Honest and to give MHO

This I think is just a one off run and nah gonna happen

I mean it is possible that the E Pac may see another hurricane but not a... "Microcane"

I still think we will see a W CARIB system
If I see next run and the few runs after that and there is a trend for E PAC storm then I'll start to buy the idea
1006mb in the Caribbean at 180 hours LOL.
Quoting 67. SFLWeatherman:
Hmmm 180hrs on 18Z GFS




12Z Euro focues tremendous amounts of moisture across the Gulf from day 7 thru day 10. This could be a sign that the Euro is trending toward a Gulf system.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
Does this mean no development in SWC?


At this point I'm discounting this 18Z run untill we see a trend that show this
Quoting 66. ColoradoBob1:

Tropical cyclones of this magnitude are not at all uncommon at this time of the year in the West Pacific.

Tell that to the Philippines, Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Japan.

What you said does not at all refute what I said.
When the faster and furiouser campaign started there was no consensus that climate change meant more and more. Especially for any particular area.
It may turn out to be slower and weaker in the Atlantic...and stronger in Pacific. Or it might be more everywhere, or less everywhere.
We know the science but we do not know the effects.
In the meantime I've paid $10,000 incrementally EXTRA for hurricane insurance.
By 2100 the insurance companies will have collected enough EXTRA to cover the complete devastation of my home 4 times over...and still have enough left over to make a fair profit.
.
Until then, all on the gulf and east coast are paying I guess to cover Okinawa.
Quoting 1. rmbjoe1954:

It's shocking to see how powerful this year's Western Pacific storms have been.


I wouldn't necessarily say that. The West Pacific average from 1950-2000 was 27-17-9, so they see strong systems often. This season is at 19-9-6 currently, so is on for perhaps average-below average activity.

I compiled a list of all West Pacific Seasons during El Nino years highlighting majors:



Given that the state of the atmosphere has been reminiscent of a weak El Nino, go by the weak category. As you can see, El Nino years tend to have an above average (9 being the average) amount of majors and comparing this year to the others, you can see that the West Pacific has had many seasons that have had many strong storms. And this is just a small sample of seasons. I'm sure you can find many more examples of years with above average majors too.


I pity the fool who can't appreciate something so freakin' gorgeous.
Lol 18Z GFS look snow! :P

The GFS is doing exactly what I said it would this morning. It's transitioning, along with its ensembles which are also favoring the East Pacific now. Soon, it'll be all in on the East Pac and we won't get these weird solutions like the past few runs have shown. The Atlantic storm idea is about out of the question I think. It's probably East Pac or nothing.
Quoting 77. Ameister12:



I pity the fools who can't appreciate something so gorgeous.


I'm sure the fools over in Japan worried sick about this thing agree with you.
Quoting 80. CumberlandPlateau:


I'm sure the fools over in Japan worried sick about this thing agree with you.

Chill out! It's just a stupid little joke, and I'm sure Japan (or any country, as a matter of fact) can both appreciate how beautiful a cyclone like Vongfong can be, and prepare for its affects.
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:



At this point I'm discounting this 18Z run untill we see a trend that show this
GFS making more sense.


This is one of the best looking cyclone's I've seen, Haiyan still tops it, but it looks epic.
Tornado Warning for area just north of Frankfort, KY

VS
Ok, I give up! Gulf storm, E-Pac storm, No storm.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


12Z Euro focues tremendous amounts of moisture across the Gulf from day 7 thru day 10. This could be a sign that the Euro is trending toward a Gulf system.
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok to add to that GFS a throws the system back into the E PAC for a second time then splits half of it that moves back in to the W CARIB again and W Carib becomes a decent system that run through the Cayman Islands and Cuba

Yeah utter garbage
I'm discounting the 18Z it makes no sense

I'll wait to see the 00Z run

Anyway looking on satellite

Looks like we may get some scattered showers tonight and tomorrow

To be honest I can do with some overcast rainy weather
It's hot and dry

Another thing I don't know if I had mentioned it to you guys
But I think it was last week or two weeks ago we had some heavy T-storms
And a lighting struck like 5 or so feet from me I nearly crapped myself
But that I wish I could have caught that on camera
Quoting Gearsts:

VS


Clear winner there is Haiyan, but it's unfair to compare even Vongfong to that one. Megi in 2010 is probably a better comparison to Vongfong.
Anyway I'll be back later
If Darth Vader is on board...its serious !
Quoting 90. Climate175:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GFS trying to make Sandy part two happen XD.
Quoting 95. washingtonian115:

GFS trying to make Sandy part two happen XD.
Also makes snow on the western side of it like Sandy.
Quoting 89. hurricanewatcher61:
Ok, I give up! Gulf storm, E-Pac storm, No storm.


Euro does seem to have a weak reflection in the Gulf around day 10. Might be frontal though either way its way different than the GFS. I have never seen 2 models so far apart in long range forecasting. Its almost as if the GFS is really lagging behind he other global models including the CMC. It almost makes you not want to post a GFS run anymore.

Euro has big ridge over the East at day 10 with low pressures across the Gulf & FL. If anything goes it will happen in the Gulf or Caribbean over the next 2 weeks.
Hey Jed any rain by you a friend near Clearwater had close to an inch of rain today. NWS expected no rain go figure.

@staci_75: just below Lexington Kentucky. ..
Ok, now I understand.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Euro does seem to have a weak reflection in the Gulf around day 10. Might be frontal though either way its way different than the GFS. I have never seen 2 models so far apart in long range forecasting. Its almost as if the GFS is really lagging behind he other global models including the CMC. It almost makes you not want to post a GFS run anymore.

Euro has big ridge over the East at day 10 with low pressures across the Gulf & FL. If anything goes it will happen in the Gulf or Caribbean over the next 2 weeks.
Quoting 97. Climate175:

Also makes snow on the western side of it like Sandy.
The GFS must be trying to relieve memories or something.I swear the model is on a drug trip.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:41 PM PDT on October 07, 2014
Scattered Clouds
92.3 °F
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 88 °F
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 37 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
It was 90.4F here, it was supposed to be 85F,
fifth day in a row over 90F. Still no AC usage
on any of the days.
This just updated and notice the Gulf. Exactly what the Euro has.

Vongfong reminds me 3 strong tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Rick (180 mph) in October 2009:


Super Typhoon Megi (185 mph) in October 2010:



And of course, Haiyan (195 mph) in November 2013:
Just look at how contrast these 2 models are.

Day 10 Euro


Day 10 GFS
Rain Rain GO AWAY!.lol.
Hurricane season us over in my book. Who wants to talk winter now. I do.we can also talk about Vongfong.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
What I would give to be on a reconnaissance aircraft in the eye of this thing...

Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What I would give to be on a reconnaissance aircraft in the eye of this thing...


All the interesting storms have been happening AWAY from the Atlantic.I wonder how the HH flights were during storms like Katrina,Rita or even Andrew.
EPAC 5 PM PDT Outlook.

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America and over the
far eastern Pacific during the next couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is possible south or southwest of the
coast of Central America late this week or this weekend while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
3rd tornado warning of the day, just north of Frankfort again. These poor people.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Simon, located just west of
Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America and over the
far eastern Pacific during the next couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is possible south or southwest of the
coast of Central America late this week or this weekend while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
If I am understanding these maps correctly, then the E-Pac should get the storm out of all this mess, is this right?
The GFS does have cold biased.But CWG said they wouldn't be surprised if the pattern swings that way.We'll see.
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

All the interesting storms have been happening AWAY from the Atlantic.I wonder how the HH flights were during storms like Katrina,Rita or even Andrew.

Sights they'll never forget, I imagine:



It must have been nerve racking to fly into Wilma as it went through its extraordinary period of explosive deepening.
Quoting 121. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sights they'll never forget, I imagine:



It must have been nerve racking to fly into Wilma as it went through its extraordinary period of explosive deepening.
Beautiful.Unfortunately these storms were headed for land.
Quoting 121. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sights they'll never forget, I imagine:



It must have been nerve racking to fly into Wilma as it went through its extraordinary period of explosive deepening.


Maybe a little claustrophobic too when her eye shrunk to what five miles wide or something? Then again it wasn't too wide to begin with.
125. JRRP
I quite like Usagi from last year:


Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

All the interesting storms have been happening AWAY from the Atlantic.I wonder how the HH flights were during storms like Katrina,Rita or even Andrew.


Hopefully better than Dr. Master's flight in Hugo. Not sure I'd be comfortable flying into all that turbulence but they're flying tanks into those storms...and I'm sure they draw a decent check. I'd rather be on the ground but I do have my price :p
Quoting 126. Envoirment:

I quite like Usagi from last year:





i don't understand why he is classified as a category 4 now.
Congrats to the Cardinals on Winning the NLDS (again)....

Fixed: thanks to Hurricanes101
Quoting 127. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hopefully better than Dr. Master's flight in Hugo. Not sure I'd be comfortable flying into all that turbulence but they're flying tanks into those storms...and I'm sure they draw a decent check. I'd rather be on the ground but I do have my price :p
Yeah I'm more of a ground person.Knowing my luck the plane will start to falter in mid air.
We now have Tropical Storm Hudhud in the North Indian Ocean:

99B INVEST 141008 0000 12.5N 92.5E IO 35 996


Quoting 124. win1gamegiantsplease:



Maybe a little claustrophobic too when her eye shrunk to what five miles wide or something? Then again it wasn't too wide to begin with.

2 miles in diameter at its minimum, which is the smallest on record if I remember correctly.
Quoting 133. washingtonian115:

Yeah I'm more of a ground person.Knowing my luck the plane will start to falter in mid air.


Or get struck by lightning
Link
Quoting 130. CybrTeddy:

.
A spectacular storm in the Pacific and half of the bloggers are talking about a blob in Central America and posting 10 day models!
Quoting 131. PedleyCA:

Congrats to the Cardinals on Winning the NLCS (again)....


They won the NLDS, they just advanced to the NLCS to face either SF or WSH

Also, forecast models everywhere now lol. Guess we just have to see how it plays out
139. JRRP
Quoting 135. TropicalAnalystwx13:


2 miles in diameter at its minimum, which is the smallest on record if I remember correctly.


Yea I knew it was something tiny. Gilbert's was real small too, wonder if Wilma took both records from him.
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2014
120ºN 94.0ºE - 30 knots 1000 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
===================================
Cyclone Alert for Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Pre-cyclone Watch for north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts

At 17:30 PM IST, The depression over north Andaman Sea moved west northwestwards during past six hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered over north Andaman Sea & neighborhood near 12.0N 94.0E, about 130 km east southeast of Long Island. It would further move west northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system would continue to move west northwestwards for some more time and then northwestwards towards northern Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast during subsequent 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. The associated intense to very intense convection lies over Andaman sea, bay islands and over bay between 7.5N to 16.0N and east of 88.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hrs. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa.

Scatterometry data indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 30 knots. Wind speed is relatively higher in eastern sector. Buoy located near 10.5N and 93.9E reports mean sea level pressure of 1001.4 hPa and surface wind of southwesterly 21 knots. Port Blair (43333) reported surface wind of 320/08 knots and mean sea level pressure of 1003 hPa. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 30-32C and ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-20 knots (low to moderate). Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest west northwestward to northwestward movement of the system and intensification during next five days.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 12.6N 93.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.5N 91.5E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.0N 89.0E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 87.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)



so right now its olny a deep depression Envoirment so no name yet
Quoting 142. stormpetrol:



Epac and SW Caribbean has a tug of war between them , I think the SW Caribbean will win this one!
Quoting 141. Tazmanian:




i think naming is not the same has it is in the W and E PAC even no it may be a TS but it will likey wont get named in tell winds are up too 60mph


so i dont think they name it in tell winds hit vary deep DEPRESSION


so right now its olny a DEPRESSION


Yeah, North Indian Ocean terminology confuses me.
Quoting 143. Tazmanian:

DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2014
120ºN 94.0ºE - 30 knots 1000 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
===================================
Cyclone Alert for Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Pre-cyclone Watch for north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts

At 17:30 PM IST, The depression over north Andaman Sea moved west northwestwards during past six hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered over north Andaman Sea & neighborhood near 12.0N 94.0E, about 130 km east southeast of Long Island. It would further move west northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system would continue to move west northwestwards for some more time and then northwestwards towards northern Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast during subsequent 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. The associated intense to very intense convection lies over Andaman sea, bay islands and over bay between 7.5N to 16.0N and east of 88.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hrs. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa.

Scatterometry data indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 30 knots. Wind speed is relatively higher in eastern sector. Buoy located near 10.5N and 93.9E reports mean sea level pressure of 1001.4 hPa and surface wind of southwesterly 21 knots. Port Blair (43333) reported surface wind of 320/08 knots and mean sea level pressure of 1003 hPa. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 30-32C and ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-20 knots (low to moderate). Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest west northwestward to northwestward movement of the system and intensification during next five days.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 12.6N 93.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.5N 91.5E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.0N 89.0E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 87.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)



so right now its olny a deep depression Envoirment so no name yet


This is also an old advisory; coordinates say 94 E and 12N, it's now at 12.5 N and 92.5 E.


watching!!
Quoting 144. stormpetrol:


Epac and SW Caribbean has a tug of war between them , I think the SW Caribbean will win this one!


Why will the SW Caribbean storm develop over a Pacific storm?
150. JRRP

Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Yea I knew it was something tiny. Gilbert's was real small too, wonder if Wilma took both records from him.


Wilma had the smallest eye ever recorded in an Atlantic tropical cyclone coming in at 2.3 miles in diameter.
Could there be development in both the epac and sw carib.?
154. JRRP


Quoting unknowncomic:
Could there be development in both the epac and sw carib.?
I hope so. :/
Quoting 153. unknowncomic:

Could there be development in both the epac and sw carib.?



Pattern isn't completely unsuggestive of it.
Quoting 104. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:41 PM PDT on October 07, 2014
Scattered Clouds
92.3 °F
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 88 °F
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 37 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
It was 90.4F here, it was supposed to be 85F,
fifth day in a row over 90F. Still no AC usage
on any of the days.


I don't care how dry it is...90'+ would always mean AC for me! haha

I expected Vongfong to hit cat5 really..but didn't expect to come on to that! I was looking at Guam, just cause of it going near there and you know, tropics aint for me! Their record low, is about what I think is ideal temp LOL Their normal highs (especially with humidity added in) sheer hell to me! Interesting about the planned influx from moving marines from japan though (read about why a while back, sigh) and all their problems with introduced species. Rebuilding in concrete to withstand typhoons. Interesting anyway!

Finally fall is setting in I think! Had a lot of rain the last week, finally! (sorry Cariboy!) annoyingly was paired with very heavy winds the other night, boy, roads were a mess driving home at 2am! But I think they tend to clean them early am, so early morn commuters probs saw nothing! LOL

Wish the lunar eclipse was viewable here :( Though, likely not to be seen cause of cloud anyway, but still!

OT rant...in my village, we have basically on-street parking only. When I parked last night, I made sure I parked close to car behind me, so someone else could park in front. I nipped out for 20 min this eve..and someone took my spot, AND right in the middle, so no one else could park! Why do people have to be such self centered idiots?! Parking here is very difficult at the best of time, yet a few peeps in the village, seem to be so idiotic..or maybe intentionally jerks, to park so lame! If it wasn't rainy out, I'd leave a note on the windshield about politeness to neighbors! haha
Quoting 157. mitthbevnuruodo

I don't care how dry it is...90' would always mean AC for me! haha

I would too if my water cooler wasn't working so well. The heat wave
before this I couldn't use it because of the high Dew Point and humidity.
I just had my AC fixed as it was needed a few times this Summer.
holy poop.

wowza!
Quoting 159. Chicklit:

holy poop.

wowza!



and thats after weakening a bit
Quoting 161. nwobilderburg:



and thats after weakening a bit

dang...JMA is classifying intensity as "violent"
glad it's not adjacent to any land areas atm
Hmm. Look where the GFS has the storm now. ;)

">


Looks to have peaked earlier. Still looks pretty darn good though.

For the Pacific Time zone the entire lunar eclipse will be visible, clouds permitting.

Partial Eclipse Begins 2:14 a.m.

Totality Begins 3:25 a.m.

Greatest Eclipse 3:55 a.m.

Totality Ends 4:24 a.m.

Partial Eclipse Ends 5:34 a.m.
Quoting 153. unknowncomic:

Could there be development in both the epac and sw carib.?


It's possible, but what I think is more likely -- MAweatherboy1 alluded to this earlier -- is we're witnessing a transition from most of the members developing a storm in the Atlantic to most of the members developing a storm in the East Pacific.
167. beell
Quoting 156. KoritheMan:



Pattern isn't completely unsuggestive of it.


Broad area of ADDED: lower tropospheric spin in the model. Latches on to a bit of vorticity here or there and runs amok with the latent heat at grid scale. Whack-a-low/Whack-a-vort. Here one minute, somewhere else the next.
A thunderstorm in October 10:00 at night.lol.
Quoting GatorWX:
Hmm. Look where the GFS has the storm now. ;)

">
That's why the season is over.
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

A thunderstorm in October 10:00 at night.lol.
Exactly, XD
Some pretty healthy storm cells over KY earlier I see.

Quoting 169. Andrebrooks:

That's why the season is over.


Ain't ova til it's ova! Nov 30th or Dec 31st. Take your pick.
Quoting 158. PedleyCA:

Quoting 157. mitthbevnuruodo

I don't care how dry it is...90' would always mean AC for me! haha

I would too if my water cooler wasn't working so well. The heat wave
before this I couldn't use it because of the high Dew Point and humidity.
I just had my AC fixed as it was needed a few times this Summer.


Is water cooler same as what was (or maybe still as) known as a swamp cooler or evaporative cooler? If so, bane of my life for a while while I was living near Joshua Tree! Gave me sinus infections whenever we used it. May have been that particular one, filters not being cleaned or something, dunno as didn't live there long enough to find out. Being a rental, maybe was filters or such. But left a sour thought with me about them nonetheless!

But still, I start to get testy after it goes over 70' with humidity here! haha Still hard to fathom how I grew up in Rancho Mirage, no idea how I coped, the pool I reckon! Many things I miss about So Calif...but not summer..or spring..or fall LOL
Quoting GatorWX:
Hmm. Look where the GFS has the storm now. ;)

">


Model is a joke..won't even follow it even inside 120hrs.
Quoting 167. beell:



Broad area of ADDED: lower tropospheric spin in the model. Latches on to a bit of vorticity here or there and runs amok with the latent heat at grid scale. Whack-a-low/Whack-a-vort. Here one minute, somewhere else the next.



The question is, how exactly does the process of whacking a low work?
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

A thunderstorm in October 10:00 at night.lol.


Yeah my parents said they had a pretty strong thunderstorm today as well with an unusual amount of lightning for this time of year. They got 0.75 out of it, it was moving pretty quick.

They also had 1.3 earlier this week with the cold front, 2 inches of rain is pretty good to finish the first week of October.

We've had just 0.15 from a quick shower from the cold front on Friday. Precip in the Panhandle of Florida hasn't been particularly plentiful for this time of year since I've been at school. We've only 5.64 in since I moved back to school on the 22 of Aug when I installed my rain gauge.

Although really, we are moving into a dry typically dry time of year now, its just the late Aug through Sep wasn't anything impressive around here. We had one day that was a real good soaker, 2.11 with 1.3 falling in 15 minutes on the 8th of last month, other than that day, most rain hasn't been too impressive.
Quoting 166. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's possible, but what I think is more likely -- MAweatherboy1 alluded to this earlier -- is we're witnessing a transition from most of the members developing a storm in the Atlantic to most of the members developing a storm in the East Pacific.


I posted this, this morning and asked which one would steal the energy from the other. It looks like the EPAC might win.

Quoting 171. GatorWX:

Some pretty healthy storm cells over KY earlier I see.



Some poor people were under a tornado warning 4 times.
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

A thunderstorm in October 10:00 at night.lol.

Lucky. :p I had a gust of wind, some heavy rain and that was it. I believe my "storm season" is probably done for now.
Quoting 174. hurricane23:



Model is a joke..won't even follow it even inside 120hrs.


Ok, here's 114.



Don't think it's a joke, but it's coming to its senses.
Quoting 178. Doppler22:


Some poor people were under a tornado warning 4 times.


Yeah, I was surprised when I viewed the 40 frame. It always puts it down to 12 and with that, doesn't look like much. They had a hell of a day though it seems.
The GFS has pretty much backed off on any development in the Caribbean.

183. beell
Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



The question is, how exactly does the process of whacking a low work?


Its looking like its going to finish quite a bit below normal this year, year to date precip here is only around 45 inches, the average for a year is 59-60, and we don't usually get much from mid October-December.
@DanLindsey77
Super Typhoon #Vongfong #VIIRS Infrared image - 7 Oct. '14 - 1703 Z. This goes with the DNB image posted earlier

Quoting 183. beell:




bl, this is a serious weather site. (I did laugh, though.)
Quoting 171. GatorWX:

Some pretty healthy storm cells over KY earlier I see.



Yep....I've got 3 horses stables in the barns at Keeneland.
The trainer called to say the horses got spooked but they were ok.
From past experience, this likely means the vet bill will have an extra $1500 added next month for "psychological services". No word on whether they'll run faster or slower during the races.
What a boring season ....
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@DanLindsey77
Super Typhoon #Vongfong #VIIRS Infrared image - 7 Oct. '14 - 1703 Z. This goes with the DNB image posted earlier


Textbook.
Vongfong
Guys, do you think I need a vacation, because this hurricane season has been very stressful. :( :(
for wash115
Q: What happens when a frog parks illegally.

A: He gets Towed
Quoting CaribBoy:
What a boring season ....
You are right CaribBoy. :(
Quoting GatorWX:


Ok, here's 114.



Don't think it's a joke, but it's coming to its senses.


ITS A JOKE in every sence in my book similar to Canadian. Its been persistently trying to develop low in a horrific environment.
PAGASA don't do so well with pressure reading.. ?!

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON OMPONG
10:30 AM PhST October 8 2014
================================================= =============
Typhoon OMPONG has maintained its strength as it moves west northwest over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ompong [VONGFONG] (927 hPa) located at 18.0N 131.9E or 1,080 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5%u201325 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

"OMPONG" is too far to affect any part of the country. However, it is enhancing the northeasterly winds resulting to rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 191. Andrebrooks:

Guys, do you think I need a vacation, because this hurricane season has been very stressful. :( :(

You're creating the stress yourself... be happy when there aren't storms that impact land...
Quoting jeffs713:

You're creating the stress yourself... be happy when there aren't storms that impact land...
Yeah, so I'm outta here until December 1st, and see you guys later. Don't forget to see my site. it is in this link.
Link
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@DanLindsey77
Super Typhoon #Vongfong #VIIRS Infrared image - 7 Oct. '14 - 1703 Z. This goes with the DNB image posted earlier




That's beautiful! Amazing structure and intensity in that shot. Idk what words even do it justice. Thanks for sharing. I was at work when it was peaking. Nice to know it's in open waters! Doubt it'll ever regain that glory.
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@DanLindsey77
Super Typhoon #Vongfong #VIIRS Infrared image - 7 Oct. '14 - 1703 Z. This goes with the DNB image posted earlier






Not quite to par, but comparable, imo. Not sure you agree and I still like Wilma over either :p
Quoting 172. GatorWX:



Ain't ova til it's ova! Nov 30th or Dec 31st. Take your pick.


inb4 three November storms.
Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:


336 hours out and [obviously] subject to change:



Wow, I thought that guy was joking.
Quoting 200. KoritheMan:



inb4 three November storms.


Maybe a December storm?? Never know. Doesn't look that way however.
203. JRRP
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2014
5:30 AM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone Alert for Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Pre-cyclone Watch for northern Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over north Andaman Sea & neighborhood moved west northwestward and now lays centered over north Andaman Sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal near 12.2N 93.0E, close to Long Island. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours.

It would cross Andaman & Nicobar Islands close to Long Island within a few hours. Thereafter, the system would continue to move west northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 13.2N 91.6E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 14.0N 90.2E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.4N 88.0E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.7 85.8E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting 194. hurricane23:



ITS A JOKE in every sence in my book similar to Canadian. Its been persistently trying to develop low in a horrific environment.


The epac equates to a horrific environment?
I still don't like the pressure estimate of Haiyan, probably the most impressive tropical cyclone in the satellite era. Not to say 895 wouldn't be really impressive, but there have been other category 5's not quite as impressive as Haiyan with lower pressure. I still don't know why the West Pacific doesn't fly recon into tropical cyclones. I just highly doubt Haiyan did not have lower pressure. I think 875-885 is more likely the range it deepened to, I wouldn't be surprised if 200 mph winds would have been found as well.
207. JRRP
TERRA pass of Vongfong

More Vongfong...

LOL. No Caribbean storm? Lmao.

EPAC wins again. Euro wins again.
M6.2 - 121km WSW of El Dorado, Mexico

Mouth of the Gulf of California
M5.1 - Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

About 2,330 miles east of Jacksonville, FL
The FIM



My response

The one model that has not deviated from its track, but does that mean that is where the system will be at in 7 days? it all comes down to where the maximum positive vorticity takes place, there will be minimum vorts circulating around the monsoon low and the models will struggle at first which we have seen here the past few nights, but once we get a closed low the models will have a better handle of track. Models are not good with track without an actual center to track. Think about that for a second how can something be good if it is not there? I think some and myself included have misused the models and what its intent is really for which is to be used as a guidance to making a forecast, not the actual forecast itself. Also, remember anything beyond 7 days should be taken with a grain of salt, one being pressure patterns are constantly changing in this fluid/dynamic atmosphere, and two being the coarse grid of the models loses the resolution. Now don't confuse all of what I just said with TC genesis it is two different concepts. The consensus with the models is for something to form, the track is what is in doubt and in question. If models had the power to nail down a track of every system that had not formed yet, then forecasting would become irrelevant. We would just leave it up to the software engineers who develop the coding to process the models and pay them to be the forecasters.

215. JRRP
10%
10%
216. ackee
The Euro has won in big way low in the sW carribean it always say no development this side Epac seem like GFS has now join the EURO I think the EurO has outperformed models this seasons in the altantic condition are just not right
217. 7544
Quoting 213. DonnieBwkGA:

The FIM



My response




ill second that
Quoting 206. Jedkins01:

I still don't like the pressure estimate of Haiyan, probably the most impressive tropical cyclone in the satellite era. Not to say 895 wouldn't be really impressive, but there have been other category 5's not quite as impressive as Haiyan with lower pressure. I still don't know why the West Pacific doesn't fly recon into tropical cyclones. I just highly doubt Haiyan did not have lower pressure. I think 875-885 is more likely the range it deepened to, I wouldn't be surprised if 200 mph winds would have been found as well.


I disagree. Wilma was, in my book, more impressive.


i am watching 55 west to
221. vis0

Quoting 202. GatorWX:



Maybe a December storm?? Never know. Doesn't look that way however.
maybe a frozen fujuwhara (small digging southward N'reaster to a TS moving up the east) ...whoa I had the strangest dream & you where there & you & you!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone WARNING for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts


At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over north Andaman Sea & neighborhood moved west northwestward, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD and lay centered over north Andaman Sea near 12.3N 92.9E, close to Long Island.

It is now crossing Andaman & Nicobar Islands close to Long Island. hereafter, the system would continue to move west northwestwards, intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and subsequently into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 36 hours. The system would cross north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast between Visakhapatnam and Goplapur around Sunday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. Center is clearly defined in visible imagery. The associated broken low to medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over the Andaman Islands, adjoining Andaman Sea and over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 16.0N and 87.0E to 94.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
9 HRS 13.2N 91.6E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 14.0N 90.2E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 15.4N 88.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 16.7N 85.8E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=============================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The system is tracking west northwest along the sub-tropical ridge. The sea surface temperature is about 30-32C and ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 24 hrs.The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system.


Vongfong, still a Category 5.
Lunar eclipse underway.
Various live streams. The one from Griffith Park Observatory is good. (In case you, like me, have clouds blocking the view.)
Also, slooh.com has a live feed that includes views from Australia, which seem brighter.
Good Morning

As compared to yesterday the majority of the 850MB and 500MB VORT has moved to the EPAC side:

850MB VORT:



500MB VORT:

Quoting 216. ackee:

The Euro has won in big way low in the sW carribean it always say no development this side Epac seem like GFS has now join the EURO I think the EurO has outperformed models this seasons in the altantic condition are just not right


What does that tell people about long range model runs. They're wrong all the time.
someone make money off of developing the gfs they dont do it for goodwill. how about a refund?
228. JRRP
Quoting 210. Drakoen:

LOL. No Caribbean storm? Lmao.

EPAC wins again. Euro wins again.
You've just crushed many people's hopes and dreams XD.
Quoting 224. EdwardinAlaska:

Lunar eclipse underway.
Various live streams. The one from Griffith Park Observatory is good. (In case you, like me, have clouds blocking the view.)
Also, slooh.com has a live feed that includes views from Australia, which seem brighter.


No Clouds out this way. Looks pretty good, not as red as the last time there was one. Totality Ends 4:24 a.m.
What's funny is the GFS still shows a Caribbean system at the end of its run.

No matter what it shows from 0-300 hours, it's going to put a Caribbean or GOM system at the very end of its run.
The model really should end at about 5 days.

I wonder if it will still show a Caribbean storm at the end of its' runs in December?
232. MahFL
Quoting 224. EdwardinAlaska:

Lunar eclipse underway.
Various live streams. The one from Griffith Park Observatory is good. (In case you, like me, have clouds blocking the view.)
Also, slooh.com has a live feed that includes views from Australia, which seem brighter.



I just popped out here in downtown JAX and saw it.
the eclipse was pretty cool to watch huh
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics highlighting three areas to watch (one of them is the southern Caribbean disturbance...but the other two I think are more interesting...especially the tropical wave that just rolled off of Africa which looks like it has rapidly organized in the last 6 hours). More details on blog update...
00Z CMC




Vongfong may have restrengthened a little in the past several hours, those real cold cloud tops are starting to show up again, although it isn't quite a perfect and symmetrical as it was yesterday. Still that rather large eye too.

NAVGEM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
The low is moving inland over Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and
development is not expected over the Caribbean Sea since the center
should continue to move slowly westward over land toward the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation change through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
03B looks to be organizing nicely too. JTWC forecasts about a Cat 3 equivalent at landfall, currently forecast to occur almost directly over Visakhapatnam, India (population ~2 million).

The Navgem previous runs have been showing an East Pac scenario as some of the other models but has suddenly switched up to a northern movement towards Eastern Gulf..

Quoting 201. 12george1:


Wow, I thought that guy was joking.


LOL! Only to show this a few runs later. Those expecting some sort of cold blast across the East are in for a rude awakening as overall ridging is being forecast for the east day 10 and beyond.

GFS


Euro day 10
Oct .8, 2014 5:09 am ET
Northeast | View Regional Video
- A cold front marches through New England with showers and thunderstorms today.
- Some thunderstorms may be strong producing gusty winds this morning.
- Most of the activity pushes offshore by lunchtime, but thunderstorms linger in eastern Maine into the middle of the afternoon.
- Behind the cold front scattered showers are likely in northwest Pennsylvania, western and northern New York and western New England.
- It will be warm with highs in the 70s from eastern Maine to Virginia.
- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s from West Virginia to northern Maine.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
The FIM



My response



Quoting 210. Drakoen:

LOL. No Caribbean storm? Lmao.

EPAC wins again. Euro wins again.


That's all the Euro does is win. It will soon get to a point where no one post GFS models anymore as it has become some sort of joke the last year or so.
UKMET kills it overland trying to cross into BOC









Quoting 233. LargoFl:

the eclipse was pretty cool to watch huh


It was cloudy here from debris from thunderstorms south and west of us yesterday.
Quoting 247. StormTrackerScott:



It was cloudy here from debris from thunderstorms south and west of us yesterday.
aw sorry scott..here on the gulf it was pretty cloudless and a full view of the moon.
Crazy.

Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Only to show this a few runs later. Those expecting some sort of cold blast across the East are in for a rude awakening as overall ridging is being forecast for the east day 10 and beyond.

GFS


Euro day 10

Quoting 241. ncstorm:

The Navgem previous runs have been showing an East Pac scenario as some of the other models but has suddenly switched up to a northern movement towards Eastern Gulf..


canadian has one coming across from africa later on
2 days of Fall -like weather then gone in a flash here in C & S FL and may not return again until either late October or November.

Temps


Dewpoints oppressive today

10/10 awesome

Quoting 248. LargoFl:

aw sorry scott..here on the gulf it was pretty cloudless and a full view of the moon.


No view here in Longwood as it was overcast.
Tampa


Orlando

From CWG.Over looking the Chesapeake Bay.


watching!!
HWRF
The NHC needs to turn their attention to the clump of thunderstorms in the Atlantic.That seems like the more imminent threat to develop rather than what ever mess is festering in the caribbean.It could also be a threat to Bermuda as most models seem to take it over that way.The energy is being robbed and moving over into the pacific as far as upward motion goes.
JB said in his video this morning that around October 20th once the MJO gets into Octant 2 then a potential cut off trough could develop over the South and yank a system out of the Gulf or Caribbean and shoot towards the Mid Atlantic. So I guess the Caribbean system isn't done yet but is pushed back to a more plausible time frame as what the GFS is showing this morning.
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:

The NHC needs to turn their attention to the clump of thunderstorms in the Atlantic.That seems like the more imminent threat to develop rather than what ever mess is festering in the caribbean.The energy is being robbed and moving over into the pacific.


I think we might get a STS out of this Atlantic system
looks like the heavy rainfall amounts is confined to central part of the country..

Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video this morning that around October 20th once the MJO gets into Octant 2 then a potential cut off trough could develop over the South and yank a system out of the Gulf or Caribbean and shoot towards the Mid Atlantic. So I guess the Caribbean system isn't done yet but is pushed back to a more plausible time frame as what the GFS is showing this morning.
It's not to uncommon in El ninoish years to have systems pull up from the gulf and shoot up the east coast.But this is the GFS and it has been awful all year.However if we do have a winter where the cold is placed in the right spot with gulf lows running up the coast we could have lot's of ****.Opops better not say the word.Someone might get upset.
More and more evidence that the GFS over 120 hours is not even worth looking at.

May have a wave maker in the Atlantic.

Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video this morning that around October 20th once the MJO gets into Octant 2 then a potential cut off trough could develop over the South and yank a system out of the Gulf or Caribbean and shoot towards the Mid Atlantic. So I guess the Caribbean system isn't done yet but is pushed back to a more plausible time frame as what the GFS is showing this morning.
Quoting 264. ncstorm:

looks like the heavy rainfall amounts is confined to central part of the country..




Summer still trying to hang on hence the battle ground.
jbs videos use to be free. it wont be long till some competition does it for free. they can use ads for income. with a season like this it would be hard to get enough clicks to make it profitable
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

It's not to uncommon in El ninoish years to have systems pull up from the gulf and shoot up the east coast.But this is the GFS and it has been awful all year.However if we do have a winter where the cold is placed in the right spot with gulf lows running up the coast we could have lot's of ****.Opops better not say the word.Someone might get upset.


I would tend to think we might have a winter pattern similar to last year but with even more rain across the SE US and heavy snow across the Mid Atlantic to New England. again this is my thinking not from the professionals.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:



Summer still trying to hang on hence the battle ground.


yes..the CPC will be updating their maps next week..will be interesting to see if this will change to reflect if the pattern will be changing or not..



Quoting 269. islander101010:

jbs videos use to be free. it wont be long till some competition does it for free. they can use ads for income


He spent more time than usual talking about the October 20th time frame as that is when the MJO heads into Octant 2. I really think we will get a system as JB said in this time frame as this would be strongest MJO in our Basin thus far this hurricane season.


Quoting 270. StormTrackerScott:



I would tend to think we might have a winter pattern similar to last year but with even more rain across the SE US and heavy snow across the Mid Atlantic to New England. again this is my thinking not from the professionals.
Well, this winter is still a toss in the air and even though CWG hasn't released there winter forecast yet they did note that if all the right things fall into place we could be looking at something similar to last year.
Quoting ncstorm:
The Navgem previous runs have been showing an East Pac scenario as some of the other models but has suddenly switched up to a northern movement towards Eastern Gulf..



Hmm the FIM family still producing W CARIB storm latest being today 06Z run
NAVGEM showing W CARIB system

I know GFS have had this bad habit of showing a storm then dropping it then bringing it back just a couple of days before the system actually develops
It's done this last year and the year before and the year before I think

I think it's a big monsoonal low and one low Center is gonna be in the E PAC while another forms in the W CARIB eventually both lows develop IMHO that is

Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

Well, this winter is still a toss in the air and even though CWG hasn't released there winter forecast yet they did note that if all the right things fall into place we could be looking at something similar to last year.


You know that is my thinking. Again I am not a professional but looking at the pattern it seems similar to last winter and if that is the case then FL won't have a winter. I think this Winter will be wetter and it could be cooler but it would all depend on how far south these trough can dig.

Orlando for the first time in several years had not one night where temps hit 32 or below at night.


my dog!
Quoting 276. hurricanes2018:



my dog!


Looks like he wants to go to the bathroom.
I got down to 33 last year in Wpb

and i made a frosty man! :P


Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:



You know that is my thinking. Again I am not a professional but looking at the pattern it seems similar to last winter and if that is the case then FL won't have a winter. I think this Winter will be wetter and it could be cooler but it would all depend on how far south these trough can dig.

Orlando for the first time in several years had not one night where temps hit 32 or below at night.
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:



You know that is my thinking. Again I am not a professional but looking at the pattern it seems similar to last winter and if that is the case then FL won't have a winter. I think this Winter will be wetter and it could be cooler but it would all depend on how far south these trough can dig.

Orlando for the first time in several years had not one night where temps hit 32 or below at night.


Didn't the panhandle get snow/ice last year?
Midwest |
- Other than scattered showers in the northern Great Lakes it looks like a dry day Wednesday.
- During the evening thunderstorms expand throughout eastern Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois.
- Stronger thunderstorms may produce some hail in northern Missouri and northeast Kansas overnight.
- Temperatures remain chilly with highs in the 40s, 50s and lower 60s from North Dakota southeast to Michigan.
- Milder 60s and 70s extend from South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas east to Kentucky.
- Some spotty 80s are possible in southern and western Kansas.
Latest CFSv2. Don't shoot the messenger!

December

Quoting 274. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm the FIM family still producing W CARIB storm latest being today 06Z run
NAVGEM showing W CARIB system

I know GFS have had this bad habit of showing a storm then dropping it then bringing it back just a couple of days before the system actually develops
It's done this last year and the year before and the year before I think

I think it's a big monsoonal low and one low Center is gonna be in the E PAC while another forms in the W CARIB eventually both lows develop IMHO that is




I guess they're keeping the low over Central America until it gets pulled up. The euro still shows it crossing over to the dark side (aka the EPAC)
Quoting 279. win1gamegiantsplease:



Didn't the panhandle get snow/ice last year?


C & S FL had no winter. The Panhandle had a harsh Winter.
Quoting 278. SFLWeatherman:

I got down to 33 last year in Wpb

and i made a frosty man! :P





33 here too.
CFSv2 also wants the possibility of moderate El-Nino to kick off hurricane season next year.

Quoting 274. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm the FIM family still producing W CARIB storm latest being today 06Z run
NAVGEM showing W CARIB system

I know GFS have had this bad habit of showing a storm then dropping it then bringing it back just a couple of days before the system actually develops
It's done this last year and the year before and the year before I think

I think it's a big monsoonal low and one low Center is gonna be in the E PAC while another forms in the W CARIB eventually both lows develop IMHO that is




I guess they're keeping the low over Central America until it gets pulled up. The euro still shows it crossing over to the dark side (aka the EPAC)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I got down to 33 last year in Wpb

and i made a frosty man! :P




Yeah I remember it got down in the mid to upper 30s on a few nights last year. We had frost at the house, but not in the city.

Some Winters the temps never drop below 40 degrees here.
Dry Season forecast for C FL. Oh wait what Dry Season



Quoting 252. CybrTeddy:

10/10 awesome




Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Buzz saw
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
CFSv2 also wants the possibility of moderate El-Nino to kick off hurricane season next year.


It also wanted a moderate El Niño this summer and summer 2012.
Quoting 293. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It also wanted a moderate El Niño this summer and summer 2012.


Expect what happened to this years hurricane season to likely happen next year. Might be a long year again for some on here. Only hope is that El-Nino diminishes toward next Fall for us to get a late burst of activity. Maybe a active September/October but it all hinges on this stubborn El-Nino if it can finally kick in then kick out.
Quoting 294. StormTrackerScott:



Expect what happened to this years hurricane season to likely happen next year. Might be a long year again for some on here. Only hope is that El-Nino diminishes toward next Fall for us to get a late burst of activity. Maybe a active September/October but it all hinges on this stubborn El-Nino if it can finally kick in then kick out.


I'd rather see it kick in soon too, only 5 named storms but at least one was a harmless major and another could be captured on land-based radar. If it's a moderate el-niño we hopefully should see a decent 2016 unless the Sahara wants to play games like last year.
Quoting 278. SFLWeatherman:

I got down to 33 last year in Wpb

and i made a frosty man! :P





I'd kill to have a winter like that again. Sans the continuous near-misses from nonexistent snowstorms, that is.

That sucked. Louisiana sucks.
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 also wants the possibility of moderate El-Nino to kick off hurricane season next year.




Scott, ignore the ENSO models beyond the winter; especially when we're talking about something that's almost a year away.

See also: spring predictability barrier.
298. SLU
Quoting 245. StormTrackerScott:



That's all the Euro does is win. It will soon get to a point where no one post GFS models anymore as it has become some sort of joke the last year or so.


I agree. The GFS has done a horrible job predicting development this year. It's beaten the CMC this year with ghost storms and worse yet, it tends to insist on development from run to run for days on end until good sense prevails.

first vis maybe something trying to spin up just west of costa rica -nicaraqua. it was just about 5 yrs ago that western nicaraqua had that strong tropical storm that made landfall and thrashed its coastline. this one if it spins up el salvador guatemala.
ESPI went from hanging in the -0.20s for the last month to 0.48. It's finally responding to this most recent weaker Kelvin wave. We may see some more El Niño conditions yet. That lick of cold water coming up & out from South America though, this has been wrecking the part where the heat goes from water to air around region 3,4 & the persistence needed to make it an offical El Niño event. The way it is still set up like that it's hard to buy the CFSv2 solution..
Congratulations for the ISS-RapidScat! Seems to be already working. Hope the sat-toddler doesn't get too frightened when they direct its scan-devices towards the beast Vongfong, lol.



Oct 3 (developing Simon)

Rapid Response for a New Wind Instrument
NASA Earth Observatory October 8, 2014
Barely two weeks after its launch and two days after its installation, the International Space Station-Rapid Scatterometer (ISS-RapidScat) captured this view of the wind field around a tropical storm. Built from spare hardware from the QuikScat satellite mission, the new instrument will contribute to global monitoring of ocean winds. The data can be used to improve weather and marine forecasting and climate modeling. ...
The map above shows preliminary, un-calibrated measurements of wind speed and direction at 7:10 p.m. local time on October 3, 2014 (0210 Universal Time on October 4). Arrows show the direction of winds at the ocean surface, while colors show the estimated speed. (One meter per second equals approximately 2.24 miles per hour.) Light gray areas are ocean, while dark gray is land.
“Most satellite missions require weeks or even months to produce data of the quality that we seem to be getting from the first few days of RapidScat,” said project scientist Ernesto Rodriguez of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “We have been very lucky that within the first days of operations we have already been able to observe a developing tropical cyclone.” ...
Whole article see link above.

I wrote a lunar eclipse/King Tides blog but then slept through the eclipse. It was probably too cloudy anyways. There is some nice pics of it showing up in WUphotos.. Here's a VIP one by WUnderphotogapher Doesiedoats.

Here was the last shot of Fongvong before the sun set. It should peak over it's night. Click pic for loop.

I rarely post in Dr Master's forum and will continue to do so, yet today I feel the need to add a few comments;

If you blast the GFS as totally flawed and then your following post is a graphic of a GFS run bolstering your viewpoint, are you not flawed?

In most learned circles, the use of "huh" in a conversation is considered bad form. I wonder what it means when you constantly type it?

How with only the aid of a radar image, are you able to ascertain the low pressure of any image withing 100 points when learned scientists cannot accurately do so?

well so march for that



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
The low is moving inland over Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and
development is not expected over the Caribbean Sea since the center
should continue to move slowly westward over land toward the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation change through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Quoting islander101010:
first vis maybe something trying to spin up just east of costa rica -nicaraqua. it was just about 5 yrs ago that western nicaraqua had that strong tropical storm that made landfall and thrashed its coastline. this one if it spins up el salvador guatemala.


There is a low spinning very close to the coast, but the NHC forecasts the low to move inland (to the west).
It may need to be watched on the EPac side.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
The low is moving inland over Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and
development is not expected over the Caribbean Sea since the center
should continue to move slowly westward over land toward the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation change through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Berg
Quoting 304. SayNoToTea:

I rarely post in Dr Master's forum and will continue to do so, yet today I feel the need to add a few comments;

If you blast the GFS as totally flawed and then your following post is a graphic of a GFS run bolstering your viewpoint, are you not flawed?

In most learned circles, the use of "huh" in a conversation is considered bad form. I wonder what it means when you constantly type it?

How with only the aid of a radar image, are you able to ascertain the low pressure of any image withing 100 points when learned scientists cannot accurately do so?




I asked this before about a month ago how one could blast the GFS on long range accuracy of tropical systems but in the next post show a long range prediction of cold/heat air by the same model and believe that concept though..can't say the GFS is not a tropical model as that wouldn't be true..

I would love to hear the reasoning myself in how certain predictions of the model are to believed and others predictions aren't in the same run?

Stationary monsoon low. Just like the GFS predicted.



All of a sudden the Caribbean looks moist.

Quoting 309. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Stationary monsoon low. Just like the GFS predicted.



All of a sudden the Caribbean looks moist.



I would beg to differ in Cayman
When will ISS-RapidScat be available to us?
I'm not in a good mood today, so I won't write much. I woke up and it looks like someone let the air out of my face.




Thought for the day: It's best to eat first and ask questions later.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
sorry fl cat 5 i meant to the west of latin america it could ride up the coast towards el salvador. there is always warm water in that part of the world
316. 882MB
Hey everyone, good morning, I have something to say, and watch, I follow each and everyone of you guys, I have been loving weather since a baby, I was 3 when Hurricane Andrew devastated Homestead, Fl, I was living by Miami international airport, and I remember like 3 minutes of it, since that day, I have been obsessed with weather, mother nature and its fury. I like all you guys post, and I learn more and more, though I know a lot, lol. Anyways I wanted to say that for the folks in the lesser Antilles, and PR, don't think that hurricane season is over, Ive seen post where people write that the cape Verde season is over, so its okay, but who here remembers Hurricane Lenny forming south of Cuba and moving due EAST instead of going north, also in the DR Hurricane Omar, Tropical Storm Klaus also came from the Caribbean and moved ENE over PR. It might had been a slow season , but please don't let your guards down in the islands, there will be a strong MJO over the SW Caribbean and central Atlantic, some models have been showing a strong wave over PR late next week, shear seems to go down some also next week, just something to keep an eye on. Thanks for your time and any thoughts?