WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Super Typhoon Vongfong Headed Towards Okinawa; 99L May Affect Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:53 PM GMT on October 09, 2014

The winds are rising on Japan's Okinawa Island as Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone of 2014, Super Typhoon Vongfong, steams north-northwest at 8 mph. Vongfong peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and had weakened below Category 5 strength with 150 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC.) The Japan Meteorological Agency showed Vonfong's central pressure rising to 915 mb at 9 am EDT Thursday, from a low of 900 mb on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 30-mile diameter eye, but the cloud tops have warmed since Wednesday, and the area covered by the typhoon's heaviest thunderstorms has shrunk. Vongfong has two concentric eyewalls, and it is likely that the typhoon is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by the outer eyewall. This process should cause further weakening today.


Figure 1. Visible VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Vongfong in moonlight as seen at 2:44 pm EDT on October 8, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Vongfong as seen by Astonaut Reid Wiseman from the International Space Station at 7 am EDT October 9, 2014. Image credit: Reid Wiseman.

Okinawa at risk of a direct hit from Vongfong
Vongfong began a turn to the north on Wednesday morning, and is likely to pass over or just to the north of Japan's Okinawa Island near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) Saturday. With the typhoon moving over waters that will gradually cool, and with wind shear expected to rise to the moderate range, weakening to Category 3 status is likely before Vongfong makes its closest pass by Okinawa. Rapid weakening should ensue as Vongfong approaches the main Japanese island of Kyushu this weekend, with Category 1 strength likely at landfall. In their 00Z Thursday runs, the European and GFS models predicted landfall would occur on Kyushu between 5 pm - 11 pm U.S. EDT time Sunday evening (21 UTC Sunday - 03 UTC Monday.) Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains last week, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Hudhud taken at approximately 2 am EDT October 9, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was intensifying and had 70 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India
It's October, the usual time of year when the Southwest Monsoon over India begins to wane. As the monsoon retreats southwards away from India, its dominance over the atmosphere in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal weakens, allowing tropical cyclones to form after a four-month period of conditions hostile for tropical cyclone formation. The North Indian Ocean typically has two tropical cyclone seasons: one in May and early June before the arrival of the monsoon, and one in October - November as the monsoon retreats. There was one named storm this year during the first portion of the season: Tropical Storm Nanauk, which formed over the waters of the Arabian Sea on the west side of India on June 10, and dissipated on June 14 without hitting land. The second season is now at hand, as we have Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Hudhud was a strengthening tropical storm with 70 mph winds at 11 am EDT Thursday. The storm is under moderately high wind shear of 20 knots, and is over warm waters of 30°C (86°F)--conditions which favor some modest intensification. Satellite loops show a well-organized system with plenty of low-level spiral bands and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. With warmer sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm and wind shear expected to be in the 15 - 20 knot range, intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday, October 12, between 00 - 06 UTC. Odisha was struck in 2013 by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage. This death toll was extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 people died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin. On Thursday morning (U.S. EDT time), IMD was forecasting that Hudhud would have sustained winds of 130 - 140 kph (81 - 87 mph) at landfall, making it a strong Category 1 storm. JTWC was forecasting a stronger storm--Category 3 with 120 mph winds. IMD predicted a storm surge of 1 - 2 meters (3.3 - 6.6 feet) would occur near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

Latest Hudhud warnings for India from the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Latest Hudhud advisory from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
India radar from Machilipatnam.


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic a possible threat to Bermuda
An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning, was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday morning. Invest 99L was headed northwest to north-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops showed plenty of spin, since 99L was associated with a non-tropical low pressure system that had already established a vigorous circulation. 99L's heavy thunderstorms were poorly organized and limited to the east side of the center, due to strong upper-level winds from the west pushing dry air into the system. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was moderate, 5 - 15 knots. Tthese conditions are favorable for development, but disturbances getting their start from a cold-cored upper level low like 99L have plenty of cold, dry air aloft, which retards development into a tropical system. The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Saturday, with moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 29°C (84°F.) On Sunday, wind shear will rise above 25 knots and the atmosphere will dry, limiting the chances for development. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the European, showed 99L developing in its 00Z Thursday run, and passing very close to Bermuda by Sunday evening. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Friday afternoon, if necessary.

At longer ranges, both the GFS and European models show development of Atlantic tropical depressions in 6 - 10 days, though they don't agree on where these storms might occur (the GFS develops something over the Bahamas, while the European model develops a tropical wave between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa.) While 6 - 10 day genesis forecasts are not to be trusted, the fact that both of these models are showing developing systems is an indication that the large-scale atmospheric conditions that have suppressed tropical storm formation during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season may ease some next week, possibly due to the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days.

Wunderblogging hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in his Thursday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters! Spectacular images of Super Typhoon Vongfong.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
653 am CDT Thursday Oct 9 2014
...
Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Thursday Oct 9 2014/

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery continued to show
upper level low pressure systems over the southwest
Continental U.S....northwest Continental U.S....and just south of the Aleutian Islands.
These systems are all expected to play a role in bringing a couple
of rounds of widespread precipitation across north and central
Texas this weekend. The 00z forward radiosonde observation showed a fairly dry air mass
in place over North Texas...with a layer of very dry air observed
in the 750 to 350 mb layer. This dry air looks like it is
associated with an elevated mixed layer (eml) due to the
relatively steep lapse rates observed in this same layer. There
was some low-level moisture observed below the eml capping
inversion located at the 750 mb layer. More low-level moisture is
on the way as well with middle 70s surface dew points observed all
along the Gulf Coast early this morning.

For today...with the eml cap in place over the region...and no
obvious upstream lift to remove the capping inversion...we should
remain dry across the County Warning Area today despite persistent positive
low-level moisture advection and good afternoon heating. An
analysis of all available observed data early this morning seems
to point to a dry forecast...however most high resolution guidance
seems to disagree. The 00z NCEP WRF/NSSL WRF/Texas tech
WRF/deterministic NAM all show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along or just east of the Interstate 35 corridor this
afternoon. For those models that offer forecast soundings...it is
obvious what's happening...the models lift the eml cap by 50 mb or
so by this afternoon...effectively removing the cap for near
surface based air to reach its level of free convection on
afternoon thermals/buoyancy. What remains elusive is why those
models are lifting the cap so much this afternoon. The
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian do no remove the cap...but the high resolution
models consistently do so.

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery does show a very weak
looking shortwave trough moving towards the Interstate 35
corridor. The GFS definitely does not resolve this feature...and
the trough is real...there is a consistent cyclonic wind shift
observed in the VAD wind profiles along its north/south axis as
it moves eastward. So this could be the feature that the coarser
resolution models are missing...however based on its current
track...it will be well east of the County Warning Area by this afternoon and
should not be providing lift in the atmosphere at that time. It is
possible that the eml is already lifted...which will be easy to
check on the forward 12z radiosonde observation this morning. The forecast can't wait
for the morning balloon of course...so went ahead and mentioned
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor for this afternoon as a result of the
consistent output of high resolution model guidance. If the 12z
balloon shows the cap is up around the 700 mb level...we may have
to bump probability of precipitation up for this afternoon.

Friday...the upper level low pressure system over the northwest
Continental U.S. Is expected to continue east over the northern Continental U.S. Rockies
today...and then slide southeast over the north and Central Plains
on Friday. This system (really a couple of shortwave troughs in
close proximity to one another) is expected to send a cold front
south into the Southern Plains Friday afternoon. The consensus of
model guidance is to bring the front into the far northwestern
part of the County Warning Area around sunset on Friday. Ahead of the front...most
model guidance once again indicates that we should be at least
weakly capped with no significant forcing for ascent spreading
over the region during the day Friday. That may change over the
next 24 hours however as we are at least going to have some
persistent weak warm air advection and isentropic lift spread
across the region all day on Friday. For now...left the forecast
dry for most locations...with the exception of locations generally
north of the dfw metroplex. These probability of precipitation were left in to account for
storms that may develop out ahead of the cold front as strong lift
begins to move into the area.

Friday night...the southwestern Continental U.S. Upper level low pressure
system is expected to spread relatively strong lift over the
region from west to east Friday evening and through the overnight
hours...along and behind the cold front. With large scale lift
aiding the strong mesoscale lift associated with the
front...continue to think our precipitation chances are very good
along and just behind the front. Model guidance consistently
indicates that precipitable water values climb up to around 1.75
inches ahead of the front by Friday evening...so there will be
plenty of moisture and lift to result in a nearly solid line of
storms to accompany the front through the region.

Severe weather is generally not expected...however if the front is
faster to move through the area than currently forecast...strong
to severe storm chances would increase. The 06z NAM brings the
front into the dfw area between 00 and 03z Friday evening...or
about 3-6 hours faster than other models. Overnight cape values
are expected to be meager...generally less than 1000 j/kg...but
afternoon cape values may be in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range and
would pose a greater risk for large hail and damaging winds. This
forecast still favors the slower frontal timing of the European model (ecmwf) and
GFS...but we will watch the timing of the front closely over the
next 24-36 hours.

Saturday...continue to keep high probability of precipitation along and just northwest of
the cold front as it moves across the County Warning Area on Saturday. By Saturday
evening...all models stall the surface cold front out just shy of
the Gulf Coast...but keep the 850 mb portion of the sloped cold
front over central Texas through Sunday morning. Temperatures
today and Friday will be very similar to yesterday with most highs
holding in the upper 80s to low 90s. Behind the front on
Saturday...highs will be much cooler...with most locations holding
in the lower to middle 70s...especially if the 850 front hangs up and
keeps clouds over the region all day.

Saturday night through Sunday...all 00z guidance was in good
agreement that the powerful looking upper level low pressure
system located just south of the Aleutian Islands this afternoon
will dig south and move over the plains Sunday night. However as
it approaches the region Saturday night through Sunday...it will
cause strong low-level cyclogenesis to ensue over the Texas
Panhandle. This will result in the rapid transport of warm-moist
air back over most of north and central Texas by Sunday afternoon.
The strongest warm air and positive moisture advection looks to
occur over west central Texas where highs on Sunday may be almost
20 degrees warmer than saturday's highs.

This strong cyclogenesis may also result in the development of
some afternoon thunderstorms near the triple point...wherever that
ends up...during the peak heating hours of the day. Any storms
that develop in the triple point Sunday afternoon will likely have
a good chance at becoming organized into supercells...and pose an
associated risk of large hail...damaging winds and possibly
isolated tornadoes. At this time...it looks like the triple point
will be northwest of the County Warning Area...but this is something we will be
keeping a close eye on in later forecasts.

Placed highest probability of precipitation over central Texas Sunday morning...near the
retreating 850 mb front...and then over the northwest County Warning Area for
afternoon storms that may develop near the surface low/triple
point. Our best chance of storms looks to be along the cold front
which is expected to move across the area Sunday night into Monday
morning. Once again...strong upper level support associated with
the Aleutian upper low looks to accompany the front across the
County Warning Area...so this looks like another very good chance of widespread
rainfall across the region. Bumped probability of precipitation up to 60 percent along the
expected timing of the front as a result.

Next week...the week looks to remain dry as a big upper ridge is
expected to build over the central Continental U.S. In the wake of Sunday
night's strong upper trough. We will start the week off cool
behind the Sunday night/Monday morning cold front...but
temperatures are expected to warm throughout the week...climbing
back above normal by late next week due to persistent dry weather
and sunny skies.

Cavanaugh

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 90 72 90 63 72 / 10 10 10 80 50
Waco, Texas 89 70 89 66 76 / 10 10 10 70 60
Paris, Texas 86 70 85 65 71 / 10 10 20 80 50
Denton, Texas 89 70 89 58 71 / 10 10 30 80 30
McKinney, Texas 88 70 88 61 71 / 10 10 20 80 50
Dallas, Texas 89 72 90 64 73 / 10 10 10 80 50
Terrell, Texas 89 72 90 67 73 / 10 10 10 80 50
Corsicana, Texas 88 71 89 69 75 / 10 10 10 70 60
Temple, Texas 89 70 89 67 77 / 10 10 10 70 60
Mineral Wells, Texas 90 68 90 56 70 / 0 10 30 80 30
YongFong VIZ to night IR loop

Thanks Dr Masters. My first post here.
Good read doc, Okinawa should already be prepared for an intense storm especially the base.
AFN Okinawa
about an hour ago


We're closing up shop for a few hours folks, but we wanted to get one last post in before calling it a night.

We remain in TCCOR 3 under the direction of the 18th Wing Commander. First thing tomorrow assess your situation; ensure you have enough food and water to sustain during and after the storm, put fuel in your vehicles, calmly make a commissary run, clean up your yard, secure outside materials, help your neighbor and follow the direction of the 18th Wing officials.

We'll update you before, during and after the storm, you can catch us here on FB, on Wave 89.1FM, Surf 648 AM, on the AFN Pacific Mobile App for Apple and Android, even on internet radio at www.AFNPacific.net. So there's no excuse to not know what's going on.

Share this FB Page so your friends and neighbors know what's going on and you don't end up having to clean up their mess in your yard.

Okinawa is built for these kind of storms and with proper preventative measures we'll get through this with minimal damage.

--GySgt Griffin
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
Good read doc, Okinawa should already be prepared for an intense storm especially the base.


Patrap posted some information on that in the previous blog.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
I was at USMC Camp Hansen from Sept 82-83.

AFN Okinawa
about an hour ago


Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:



Patrap posted some information on that in the previous blog.


Cool must have missed it


Severe weather coming for a lot of folks.
Quoting 12. hydrus:



Severe weather coming for a lot of folks.
Looks like a strong cold front hydrus,panhandle has possible warnings for tuesday
Super Typhoon YongFong

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Cool must have missed it


See post #7

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 09 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-131 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 (CHANGED)
A. 10/1930Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 10/1430Z
D. 23.5N 65.0W
E. 10/1915Z TO 10/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 (NO CHANGE)
A. 11/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 11/0700Z
D. 27.0N 67.0W
E. 11/1115Z TO 11/1445Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE
12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS...INVEST REQUIREMENT FOR 10/1730Z
CHANGED TO 10/1930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM


Quoting 13. LargoFl:

Looks like a strong cold front hydrus,panhandle has possible warnings for tuesday
Yep...I dont like it..All the models a starting to show a severe weather outbreak over a large area.
I'll give 99L a 50/60.
Quoting 19. hydrus:

Yep...I dont like it..All the models a starting to show a severe weather outbreak over a large area.


Severe weather and the Tropics coming alive this week & next should put a lot of people on edge. For this first time this hurricane season it appears that we are heading into an active few weeks. People in FL better start paying attention to these models as we could have a significant tropical threat to FL around October 20th.
22. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


From the San Juan NWS:
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

Favorable CCKW
So the attention has to be focus on the Atlantic, between África and the Antilles...this week
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
17:30 PM IST October 9 2014
===============================
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Bay near 14.1N 88.4E, about 675 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 685 km southeast of Gopalpur.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. The system would cross north Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the afternoon on Sunday.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 10.0N to 15.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 14.5N 87.6E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 15.0N 86.7E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 16.5N 84.5E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 18.0N 82.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Storm surge warning:
====================
Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.


Additional Information
===================
The system is maintaining the intensity as the deep convective curved banding around the low level circulation center has intensified. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N and is providing poleward outflow. The system is tracking west northwestwards under the influence of sub-tropical ridge. The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system. The numerical weather prediction models are gradually converging and predicting the west northwestward movement of the system towards north Andhra Pradesh coast.


here come invest 99L
Quoting 20. Andrebrooks:

I'll give 99L a 50/60.

I am going to say 40% and 50% at 2pm!
Still a long way out but shear profiles aren't terrible for the Southeast next Tuesday. Definitely will be the best chance that North Florida has seen for severe weather so far this season. Front timing is critical though, severe chances highest if it comes through N. Fl in middle/late afternoon. Still a longtime left for models to evolve. Shear/Instability profiles will undoubtedly change. In what manner we need to wait and see what the SPC says.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
FLOODING ALONG THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Pat, meant to ask you last time you posted about Okinawa, ever meet a Marine from S C IL by the name of Craig Bradley, he was over there somewhat in that time frame? Very good friend of mine, unfortunately passed in a car accident in '87.

Been gray all morning w/ off & on rain in S C IL. 55 & 55, 30.09", light winds SE to NE. Thought we had a big round coming, Nexrad says down for maintenance at both StL & Lincoln, so went to an area Sat/radar and appears as approached StL started moving SE. We're already wet enough. Farmer's were back in yesterday hot & heavy. Almost as many grain semis on county road as cars. Probably 50-60% corn out & 25-30% soybeans. Getting some colors in the trees now too, so hope not too much more wet days.
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Severe weather and the Tropics coming alive this week & next should put a lot of people on edge. For this first time this hurricane season it appears that we are heading into an active few weeks. People in FL better start paying attention to these models as we could have a significant tropical threat to FL around October 20th.


I hope my birthday isn't an infamous landfall date/future anniversary. I have a friend who's born on both 24 and 29 August (both born before those storms at least).
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


I hope my birthday isn't an infamous landfall date/future anniversary. I have a friend who's born on both 24 and 29 August (both born before those storms at least).


My birthday is Aug. 24th.
So I don't come here for a while and miss the strongest tropical cyclone in 2014 -_-

So how have you all been doing lately?

Hope you all haven't been fighting TOO much here ;)
Beautiful swFL day!



55% humidity, I'll take it!
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:



My birthday is Aug. 24th.


I guess your name and your birthday are not coincidences. Were you there for it or born on the day exactly?


u see invest 99L
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


I guess your name and your birthday are not coincidences. Were you there for it or born on the day exactly?


I was born on Aug. 24th. I was in Collier County so I did experience the storm, but I didn't get the full effect that they got on on the S.E. coast.
Thank you doc.

Here's the precipitable water loop with the "hoopoe" (Hudhud) in the middle and the "wasp" (Vongfong) to the right. Well, remembering the discussion some months earlier whether soft female names for hurricanes aren't threatenting enough for Atlantic residents to take shelter, I wonder what the Indians will do with a hoopoe at their steps. Hope they won't take it easy ;-)


Click to enlarge.


May be pertinent where steering currents are concerned..:)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 091725
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quoting GatorWX:
Beautiful swFL day!



55% humidity, I'll take it!


Yep, 100% clear sky outside here.
Just a quick edit note: The caption for Figure 3 of Hudhud labels it as Vongfong.
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Severe weather and the Tropics coming alive this week & next should put a lot of people on edge. For this first time this hurricane season it appears that we are heading into an active few weeks. People in FL better start paying attention to these models as we could have a significant tropical threat to FL around October 20th.
Yeah, we need to postpone the countdown to the 2015 season for a few more weeks.
48. JRRP
uff 50%
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, 100% clear sky outside here.
Here's a shot of the NW FL GOM coast a couple of hours ago.. (looking east toward Panama City)
Hello everyone. I have a hurricane question. What is the "average" size of a hurricane? Not the eye but the full diameter. Thanks!
Typhoon Vongfong

Super Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 9, 2014 12 GMT
Location 20.3N 129.5E Movement NNW
Wind 150 MPH
Link
GFS 84 hours
when looking at interesting october hurricane facts....florida of course with it's extensive shoreline is first....however suprisingly lousianna is second
Yeah, we need to postpone the countdown to the 2015 season for a few more weeks.


yep...it's funny how those who so recently said their won't be another....are jumping on the it's gonna get active bandwagon......they always seem to swing both ways.....go figure
who can explain me how to put a picture in the post.
Quoting 49. JNFlori30A:

Here's a shot of the NW FL GOM coast a couple of hours ago.. (looking east toward Panama City)



Looking great
who can explain me how to put a picture in the post.


copy the pic url........press the image bar underneath where you post......paste it into the drop box provided
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Severe weather and the Tropics coming alive this week & next should put a lot of people on edge. For this first time this hurricane season it appears that we are heading into an active few weeks. People in FL better start paying attention to these models as we could have a significant tropical threat to FL around October 20th.


Thought the Atlantic was "shut down" for the year?
Quoting 50. Newswatcher:

Hello everyone. I have a hurricane question. What is the "average" size of a hurricane? Not the eye but the full diameter. Thanks!

Google: "The size of a hurricane is usually determined by the diameter of its hurricane- and gale-force winds. The average diameter of hurricane-force winds is 100 miles, while the average diameter of tropical storm (gale) force winds is 300 to 400 miles. However, this varies from storm to storm."
Quoting 54. ricderr:

Yeah, we need to postpone the countdown to the 2015 season for a few more weeks.


yep...it's funny how those who so recently said their won't be another....are jumping on the it's gonna get active bandwagon......they always seem to swing both ways.....go figure


Bring out the windshield wipers, i guess those apply to more than just computer models now.
Quoting 33. win1gamegiantsplease:

I have a friend who's born on both 24 and 29 August.


Two birthdays? Your friend is certainly unique. (Though to be honest, I'm struggling with the mechanics of such a thing.) ;)

Quoting 59. JNFlori30A:

Google: "The size of a hurricane is usually determined by the diameter of its hurricane- and gale-force winds. The average diameter of hurricane-force winds is 100 miles, while the average diameter of tropical storm (gale) force winds is 300 to 400 miles. However, this varies from storm to storm."
Thank you sir!!
Here's that clear sky I was talking about.
Not a cloud in the sky. Fort Myers Beach looking north.
Invest 99L in the Atlantic a possible threat to Bermuda maybe??
Bring out the windshield wipers, i guess those apply to more than just computer models now.


bolt....i just think you have come up with the name for those that flip......now they're wipers
Quoting 61. Neapolitan:



Two birthdays? Your friend is certainly unique. (Though to be honest, I'm struggling with the mechanics of such a thing.) ;)



Didn't even catch that lol one is born three years before Andrew the Katrina birthday is 21 now.
Quoting 54. ricderr:

Yeah, we need to postpone the countdown to the 2015 season for a few more weeks.


yep...it's funny how those who so recently said their won't be another....are jumping on the it's gonna get active bandwagon......they always seem to swing both ways.....go figure


Yep, and I will get in 3 days of golf and 1 day of fishing this week. I never thought I would get that in based on the local Central Florida forecast:)
Quoting 66. win1gamegiantsplease:



Didn't even catch that lol one is born three years before Andrew the Katrina birthday is 21 now.


for the longest time i thought you meant the SF Giants...
:)
Quoting 68. WaterWitch11:



for the longest time i thought you meant the SF Giants...
:)


I think Cumberland also confused it, yea it'd be nice if it were supposed to mean "win 1 more for the championship!" Instead of "win 1 so we can avoid 0-7!"

Edit: in all honesty I shouldn't be so bitter when we won especially when I was in high school in 2007 (so I could rub it in of course) but I'm a petty individual :p
70. JRRP
Even though 99L most likely will be a threat more to Bermuda, there is a high which is expected to develop to the north of the system as it moves further north into the Atlantic. It will be possible that it could be moved to the west for a period of time.

Up to 35mph
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992014 10/09/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 51 55 54 53 48 46 44 41
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 51 55 54 53 48 46 44 41
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 46 47 46 44 43 42 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 14 13 21 33 38 38 33 29 32 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -4 -2 1 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 161 164 178 203 204 197 182 192 195 213 232 262 266
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 149 149 154 154 149 141 138 137 132 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 135 134 138 136 129 121 117 115 111 111
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 59 55 52 44 44 39 36 34 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 46 55 65 53 23 -43 -38 -45 -49 -61 -53
200 MB DIV 53 60 27 28 79 41 28 3 0 3 -3 -12 -6
700-850 TADV 1 0 1 6 10 6 3 3 -6 -4 -9 -4 -7
LAND (KM) 573 544 527 532 549 671 849 1028 1188 1332 1422 1454 1432
LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.0 24.4 26.1 27.8 29.2 30.2 30.6 30.4 29.7
LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.8 62.4 63.1 63.8 64.6 65.1 65.0 64.5 63.1 61.4 60.0 59.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 49 62 77 78 66 39 32 16 16 11 10 9 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 24. 23. 18. 16. 14. 11.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 10/09/2014 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
74. JRRP
Yep, and I will get in 3 days of golf and 1 day of fishing this week. I never thought I would get that in based on the local Central Florida forecast:)


sounds fun.....and yep....you can't trust those forecasts...more often wrong than right
Not quite sure whether this pic is real as it looks very unreal, lol:

Tweet:
NWS Corpus ChristiVerifizierter Account ‏@NWSCorpus
Weather satellite GOES-East captured the moon (upper left) in one of its satellite images around midday today! #txwx
19:42 - 8. Okt. 2014

Quoting 76. barbamz:

Not quite sure whether this pic is real as it looks very unreal, lol:

Tweet:
NWS Corpus ChristiVerifizierter Account %u200F@NWSCorpus
Weather satellite GOES-East captured the moon (upper left) in one of its satellite images around midday today! #txwx
19:42 - 8. Okt. 2014


size looks about right..

I don't pay attention to models more than 2 hours out.

Early good night today as I'll be away for the weekend. Below a little European weather update which shows a jet stream driven band of (heavy) rains (currently over my place near Frankfurt). Estofex has the details and some warnings because of torrential rains for Spain, France and Italy.


Map for tomorrow.


Current jet stream.


Current updating loop of cloud top temperatures.

Good night, nice weekend, and a safe one for all who are affected by the typhoon (Vongfong) or the tropical cyclone (Hudhud).
Both conditions and location are both favorable for development of the invest.... I'm more in the vicinity of 50%/70% (maybe even higher than 70% going out 5 days.

If this same system was in the MDR region, I would give it a 20%/30%
Quoting 75. ricderr:

Yep, and I will get in 3 days of golf and 1 day of fishing this week. I never thought I would get that in based on the local Central Florida forecast:)


sounds fun.....and yep....you can't trust those forecasts...more often wrong than right


Thank God for that. And every once in a while when they are right - we sure hear about it.
It looks like the Atlantic is waking up a little

83. JRRP
LOL EURO is showing a strong TS hitting Florida
LOL! The 12Z Euro has an interesting set up for FL. Looks like a very interesting trough split being shown over the Bahamas.
85. JRRP
12z Euro..

currently running but showing a 1003 mb low heading into the Bahamas..
Euro is going strong in the Bahamas.
dang..Levi's site is much faster with the Euro..I'm bout to cancel my subscription..
the thing with the Euro it starts to show it curving out to sea but instead turns and heads southwest..
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..

currently running but showing a 1003 mb low heading into the Bahamas..
What storm is this from. The MJO that will come in.
Quoting ncstorm:
the thing with the Euro it starts to show it curving out to sea but instead turns and heads southwest..


Hmm..Frances/Jeanne scenario
Very interesting set up here.

Quoting 91. Andrebrooks:

What storm is this from. The MJO that will come in.


Like I said a trough split
That's P45L that the Euro brings to Florida.
Quoting 83. JRRP:

LOL EURO is showing a strong TS hitting Florida
MON DIEU!
Quoting 54. ricderr:

Yeah, we need to postpone the countdown to the 2015 season for a few more weeks.


yep...it's funny how those who so recently said their won't be another....are jumping on the it's gonna get active bandwagon......they always seem to swing both ways.....go figure


You may swing both ways but I don't so thanks. I am also well with in my 5 to 7 named system forecast.
Funny how some are wife is working while hubby is trolling a blog.
12z UKMET looks to be hinting at the Euro storm also. That's our two best models looking pretty similar. We'll see, obviously it's several days out so no big deal right now.

Euro has a Florida TS 10 days out from the East. We need more model agreement on that.
Quoting 85. JRRP:


JFV is somewhere in his bathroom squawking with happiness at this.
103. JRRP
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
That's P45L that the Euro brings to Florida.
.
yeah
Quoting 98. StormTrackerScott:

Funny how some are wife is working while hubby is trolling a blog.
+100! wait... what?!


wow!!! i better run to the store next week
106. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
JFV is somewhere in his bathroom squawking with happiness at this.

jajajajajaj
The plot thickens.





Does anyone remember the GFS was showing this scenario with with GOM/Florida storm..with the block/recurve?..now models are latching on it with a different system..
Quoting ncstorm:
the thing with the Euro it starts to show it curving out to sea but instead turns and heads southwest..


Pretty strange pattern for October, normally they do what 99L will do is go out.. out.. out to sea! This one will be interesting to watch, the UKMET is starting to show it. Nothing too strong right now, but it definitely bares watching.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


wow!!! i better run to the store next week


The Euro!!! Nice for a change
A rather small and compact system.

Quoting 110. yankees440:



The Euro!!! Nice for a change


I have confidence in the euro, when the low has developed more
I think both the GFS and the CMC have had one to many drugs so their programs aren't working to well now.Remember..according to the GFS we were suppose to have a developing T.C in the caribbean right now....
Quoting yankees440:


The Euro!!! Nice for a change


Yeah, the Euro can forecast 120 ghost storms and still not catch up to the GFS.
Quoting 111. CybrTeddy:

A rather small and compact system.


SST are still warm and TCHP last time I check was high.These compact systems need to be watched.Could also mean a high pressure environment.
Two-hundred and forty hours out.
Classic 2014.

Quoting 108. ncstorm:





Does anyone remember the GFS was showing this scenario with with GOM/Florida storm..with the block/recurve?..now models are latching on it with a different system..
We're likely to see one or more tropical cyclones develop in both the Atlantic and East Pacific over the next two weeks as the Madden-Julian Oscillation amplifies and moves into octants 1 and 2 and a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave traverses the basins. Invest 99L should become Subtropical Storm Fay on its way toward Bermuda, and the tropical wave near 50W has a good shot at development too, I believe. This should be a reminder for all those saying we wouldn't even see one more storm this season that there's a reason it runs until November 30.

Quoting 116. Drakoen:

Two-hundred and forty hours out.
Shhh!
Quoting 112. win1gamegiantsplease:



I have confidence in the euro, when the low has developed more


It's just nice to finally see the European latching on to something
Well FIM 7 and 8 has what the EURO has but they have it going out to sea and a other one going into FL from the Caribbean
Quoting 116. Drakoen:

Two-hundred and forty hours out.
It's more trustworthy than the apparent ghost storm that was suppose to be developing in the caribbean right now by the GFS.
280hrs euro by the time it gets here it will be "widespread panic"
Quoting 122. washingtonian115:

It's more trustworthy than the apparent ghost storm that was suppose to be developing in the caribbean right now by the GFS.


ECMWF has had false alarms too. Better to wait for consistency and a reasonable time frame. Let's get it into the 00hr.
If 99L becomes Fay, then 2014 is only the most boring hurricane season since 1986, not 1983. I'll put an asterisk on tying 1986, however, if it never becomes a tropical storm, just a sub-tropical storm, because before 2001, STS were only assigned numbers, not names.

FSU phase diagrams- it may not ever be nameable, and if it does become Fay, it may never lose the sub-tropical designation.
Quoting 122. washingtonian115:

It's more trustworthy than the apparent ghost storm that was suppose to be developing in the caribbean right now by the GFS.


It´s true. Let´s see what happens in the next couple of days. By the way, nothing in the caribbean.
Oh, just noticed the Euro system. Better initialization, better resolution, superior model physics, a 240 hour Euro can not be dismissed quite as easily as a 240 hour GFS run can.
Any chance another low will form in the western caribbean?
Quoting 124. Drakoen:



ECMWF has had false alarms too. Better to wait for consistency and a reasonable time frame. Let's get it into the 00hr.
In 00hr it's over to make preparations XD.What about 120hr?.

Quoting 82. Grothar:

It looks like the Atlantic is waking up a little


This was the ECMWF's last model run at 240 hours. It was very different from the current run.
That's why we need to see model consistancy.

00Z ECMWF at 240 hours
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

In 00hr it's over to make preparations XD.What about 120hr?.


Many of you seem to misinterpret what I mean by that. What I mean is let's have a developed system first.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The plot thickens.



Na...track is highly suspect and unlikely if you asked me. Another cold-front poised to move into the southeast early next week should recurve anything out there. In 2014 its either development near 35n or nada.
Ya i was looking at that too! Looks like it should go out to sea! But the 6Z GFS had what the 12Z Euro has
Quoting 137. hurricane23:



Na...track is highly suspect and unlikely if you asked me. Another cold-front poised to move into the southeast early next week should recurve anything out there. In 2014 its either development near 35n or nada.
Quoting 123. islander101010:

280hrs euro by the time it gets here it will be "widespread panic"

Yep.....I'm panicking here....Can't you tell.
Quoting 133. GeoffreyWPB:


GEO IF the euro is right, would that affect your area?

I'm going to make the GFS an offer it can't refuse!
99L is trying to pinch off the dry air. Also take note of the convection that fired up today in the western Caribbean (another low maybe trying to form?).

Looks like it may be succeeding. I'm gonna get some small groundswell from this.

Quoting 143. Sfloridacat5:

99L is trying to pinch off the dry air.


If you lowered the "titled" area in the Central Atlantic in a straight line between Africa and Antilles, it would look like a very healthy looking early September ITCZ (along with the activity in Central America just off the coast of Honduras).............This is not the case however in early October but this actually the best the MDR has looked in two months....................................... :)






something spinning at soutHeast of invest 99L
just watched the vis. loop perfect time of day. it looks to me our latin american system is still over land. maybe more east than it was before. maybe they will move the pouch over to the carib. side.???
For reference in the short-term; have to see what we are looking at in the longer-term and where shear levels might cooperate with the MJO pulse coming into the Atlantic Basin. Noticing the past 24 hour tendancies off the coast of Central America; still a little high just off the Honduran coast and the anti-cyclone in the area is actually half-way over land at the moment. Not sure that that convective area is going to have time to develop as it moves onshore:






Quoting hurricanes2018:



something spinning at soutHeast of invest 99L
That's what the Euro is depicting, along with some other models.


i see three spins!!
Looking at the visible satellite, there appears to be a broad low level circulation over Central America with another smaller low just off shore in the EPAC.

I'm wondering if that broad circulation can break away and drift north and get into the western Caribbean.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


i see three spins!!
The Central America spin is what the Nam, and what The GFS was depicting.
Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

Looking at the visible satellite, there appears to be a broad low level circulation over Central America with another smaller just off shore in the EPAC.

I'm wondering if that broad circulation can break away and drift north and get into the western Caribbean.




Yup..........The lower level vort signature down there is actually "tied together" between the two areas but the E-pac side is actually winning at the moment:

very nice discussion on twc tonight of the Kings tide.
Quoting Climate175:
img src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-w eather-gang/files/2014/10/ecmwf_qpf_th500_east_26. png">


We'll have to watch and see if this front tries to pull that Caribbean low to the north.
Quoting 124. Drakoen:



ECMWF has had false alarms too. Better to wait for consistency and a reasonable time frame. Let's get it into the 00hr.


i.e. Debby into Central Texas as a hurricane, Andrea into Louisiana as a subtropical storm.

Its a great model, and does have an edge over the GFS is several ways such as computing power, better initialization, and better resolution. However, it seems there is almost worship in this blog over the euro.

I don't care if a run at 240 hrs is a GFS or a euro run, 240 hrs is 240 hrs.
Quoting 157. Sfloridacat5:



We'll have to watch and see if this front tries to pull that Caribbean low to the north.
Yep and not only that, a very vigorous storm system to cross the country in a few days.
Dr. Greg Forbes
about an hour ago
TOR:CON values are likely to rise in some areas on Monday and Tuesday once the details of the weather pattern become clearer in the computer model forecasts.

TUESDAY
Computer models continue to differ on the eastward speed and other
details of this weather system, so that confidence is again
reduced in the details. I've tried to reach a compromise, with severe
thunderstorms in OH, southeast IN, west PA, WV, west NC, east half KY, east half of TN, GA, west SC, east AL, FL panhandle. TORCON - 3 for now. Some areas will likely rise once details of the weather pattern become clearer.

MONDAY
Computer models disagree on the exact location of the severe threat, with the European model slower and shifted about 250 miles farther west, but both agree on a severe threat near or approaching the Mississippi Valley. I've tried to reach a compromise, with severe thunderstorms in south MO, south IL, west KY, west TN, MS, LA, AR, southeast OK, east TX (east of I-35). TORCON - 3 for now. The severe threat may spread into AL and West GA if the faster American solution is correct.

SUNDAY
Computer models differ in terms of the position and likelihood of
severe thunderstorms, so confidence is reduced in this forecast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms in south-central and southeast KS,
OK (excluding panhandle), northwest AR, southwest MO, north-central and west TX in an area east of a line from Childress to Midland, eastward to Paris, Dallas, and San Angelo. TORCON - 4 OK area above; 3 TX area above; 2 to 3 rest of area. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in the rest of AR, west and middle TN, north MS, north AL, northeast TX. TORCON - less than 2
Storm just south of Alaska is what will produce that vigorous storm on Tues-Wed.
Quoting 162. Climate175:

Storm just south of Alaska is what will produce that vigorous storm on Tues-Wed.


I believe that is the remnants of Phanfone
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I believe that is the remnants of Phanfone
Get a satellite loop and check it out. :)
Quoting 163. Hurricanes101:



I believe that is the remnants of Phanfone


je hebt gelijk
Umm...
invest 99L starting to look better today i will gave it 60% at 8pm tonight
Quoting 156. Climate175:



Nasty rain band set up for VA/MD/PA
Quoting hurricanes2018:
invest 99L starting to look better today i will gave it 60% at 8pm tonight
Me too. Code red huh? We'll see tonight.
Quoting 168. Doppler22:


Nasty rain band set up for VA/MD/PA
Yep strong to severe thunderstorms a possibility.
18z GFS is now showing signs of the ECMWF/UKMET storm, although it doesn't do a whole lot with it. That's the whole "Big 3" on board to some extent though. That's not to say it's a lock to happen; the 12z ECMWF ensembles were very unimpressive. But worth keeping an eye on over the coming days to see if we get any consistency. 99L is still pretty broad and disorganized, but it's getting closer. Code red by tomorrow morning, perhaps as early as this evening.

Here's an excerpt from the Jackson, MS NWS office discussion regarding the potential severe weather threat early next week. Still a few days out but it could be a sizable event.

.LONGTERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL MENTION THAT POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICAST AND HWO. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ELEVATED AND LIMITED FEATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A STRONG PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM ESP WITH
THE GFS MODEL. THE BEST FORCING AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WHERE THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH DECENT
SHEAR. THE SOUNDING SHOWED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 300-400.
THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTOR WERE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FORCING...WHICH
ADDS UP TO A LINER COMPLEX PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS TRIES TO SLAM THE LINE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND EURO WAS A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE
INCREASED CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CIPS SHOWS
SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUE FOR PAST SYSTEMS
. SO THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THE RAINS WILL EXIT
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. COOLER NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGING
COMES IN FROM THE WEST./17/
Quoting 168. Doppler22:


Nasty rain band set up for VA/MD/PA
This is what happens when the mets start begging for rain.We get rain all right and lots of it.It's suppose to rain almost practically all day on Friday.
From CWG

They also talk about the Tuesday system next week
Link
Storm just south of Alaska is what will produce that vigorous storm on Tues-Wed.




yup Phanfone.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 9 2014
===============================
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over west central & adjoining east central Bay moved westwards and lays centered near 14.1N 87.9E over west central & adjoining east central Bay about 630 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 650 km southeast of Gopalpur.

The system would move west northwestwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. Thereafter, system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by Sunday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 11.0N to 17.0N and 83.0E to 91.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 14.4N 87.1E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 15.0N 86.2E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 16.8N 84.0E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 18.4N 82.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Storm surge warning:
====================
Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.


Additional Information
===============
The system is maintaining the intensity as the deep convective curved banding around the low level circulation center has intensified. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N and is providing poleward out flow. The system is tracking west northwestwards under the influence of sub-tropical ridge. The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system. The numerical weather prediction models are gradually converging and predicting the west northwestward movement of the system towards northern Andhra Pradesh coast.
Another nice sunrise on a weaker but still formidable Vongfong:



In addition to being Earth's strongest storm of the year, it should take the title for most ACE of any storm in the next couple days, it's at about 31 units, which puts it in second place for the year behind Typhoon Halong, which had about 35.5 units. It's helped to pull the West Pacific back to near average ACE for the year. Globally we're at about 90% of average for ACE, with the East Pac (140% of normal) carrying the load, and the Atlantic (40% of normal) being the load.
180. etxwx
Samoa's architects look to the past to boost climate resilience
In Samoa and other Pacific island nations, which risk devastation from gale-force winds, flooding, sea surges, and tsunamis, a return to indigenous building styles could be the key to creating disaster-resilient communities of the future. In many Pacific Island countries, Western-style home construction has been gradually usurping traditional architecture. But returning to indigenous practices of building and planning communities could be key to creating the disaster-resilient communities of the future, experts say.
Northeast |
- Much of the region is dry and seasonably cool Friday.
- Showers will spread across the south portion from West Virginia, southern Pennsylvania, and northern Virginia east across New Jersey in the afternoon.
- Some thunderstorms are possible for the central Appalachians.
- Highs will be in the 50s and 60s over much of the region, with 70s for much of Virginia and a few low 80s southeast portion.
182. beell
Quoting 176. HadesGodWyvern:





yup Phanfone.


Ya'll sure about that?



hot weather in the south here
Hmmm 18Z GFS has what the EURO had! :P
Ya'll sure about that?


ya. the last statement from JMA on October 8th was DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA AT 43N 179W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.

the area where the number 8 is on the map.

these are delicious.
Quoting washingtonian115:

these are delicious.


Is that the very rare category 6 chicane?
Today may be the last 32ºC day of 2014 in Houston.
189. JRRP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Summer is back, sort of. 90 today. Not true summer humidity though. Continued rain-free. Looks like a good beach weekend, and may be the last one of the year.
Quoting JRRP:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
code red. :-)
Quoting 187. Autistic2:



Is that the very rare category 6 chicane?
No its Takoyaki.It is really hard to find in the D.C area.
193. txjac
Quoting 188. EdMahmoud:

Today may be the last 32ºC day of 2014 in Houston.


Looks like that will happen on just about Tuesday.
Calls for celebration
194. beell
Quoting 185. HadesGodWyvern:



ya. the last statement from JMA on October 8th was DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA AT 43N 179W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.

the area where the number 8 is on the map.


Run a 10 m model from that point and watch extra-tropical Phanfone. S of the Aleutians. Compare that to the evolution of the longwave trough at 500 mb developing over the central US Sun/Mon. I think one could make the case that the existing mid/upper polar lobe over the Aleutians in addition to Phanfone will play a role in the ridge/trough pattern. Specifically, the amount of amplification of the central US trough-but the severe weather potential over the central/eastern US is not synoptically related. The models would show a trough with/without Phanfone.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue in association with a
broad area of low pressure located south of the coast of El
Salvador. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it drifts west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 134. LargoFl:


how many times will you post this over the next week? 50 times
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Quoting MAweatherboy1

Here's an excerpt from the Jackson, MS NWS office discussion regarding the potential severe weather threat early next week. Still a few days out but it could be a sizable event.

.LONGTERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL MENTION THAT POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICAST AND HWO. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ELEVATED AND LIMITED FEATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A STRONG PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM ESP WITH
THE GFS MODEL. THE BEST FORCING AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WHERE THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH DECENT
SHEAR. THE SOUNDING SHOWED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 300-400.
THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTOR WERE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FORCING...WHICH
ADDS UP TO A LINER COMPLEX PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS TRIES TO SLAM THE LINE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND EURO WAS A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE
INCREASED CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CIPS SHOWS
SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUE FOR PAST SYSTEMS


What analogue do they mean?
Good evening all! We've been having generally fair weather over the past week; the northern central and western Caribbean was very dry, with very little moisture in the mid-upper levels. It seems as this is changing though.

October Is our "wettest" month, but not much rain so far. Let's see if this will change with the upward phase of the madden Julian oscillation.
Another question:
With forecaster confidence building on this potent storm system, I need to point out that my city, Houston, seems to be in the path of this front. Will Houston (as usual )end up being hardest hit community? Or is the greater danger of strong/severe/extreme storms in points north?
i see we have a red x for invest 99L
Is warm weather in the forecast (next week) for western and central states? It seems as if warm air advection will be taking place in the aforementioned area, at least looking at the images that were posted by climate175.
8pm Update! 10/9/14
99L now at 60% chance of forming into Tropical Storm Fay in next 5 days! looking like a rainy and windy Saturday and Sunday for Bermuda! At this time it is looking like it may go to the east of Bermuda.
I think we will see a storm in both the eastern pacific and areas these types of situations are very common around these types of years it happened in 2009
Some of the ensembles have gone west per the 18z update

Here we Go Loop de Loop....

Looks like a TD according to this. :/



Watch the area on or just off the Nicaragua coast for the next 24-48 hours.
212. beell
Quoting 198. pureet1948:

Quoting MAweatherboy1

Here's an excerpt from the Jackson, MS NWS office discussion regarding the potential severe weather threat early next week. Still a few days out but it could be a sizable event.

.LONGTERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL MENTION THAT POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICAST AND HWO. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ELEVATED AND LIMITED FEATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A STRONG PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM ESP WITH
THE GFS MODEL. THE BEST FORCING AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WHERE THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH DECENT
SHEAR. THE SOUNDING SHOWED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 300-400.
THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTOR WERE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FORCING...WHICH
ADDS UP TO A LINER COMPLEX PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS TRIES TO SLAM THE LINE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND EURO WAS A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE
INCREASED CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CIPS SHOWS
SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUE FOR PAST SYSTEMS


What analogue do they mean?


CIPS Analog Threat Guidance
99 looks like she is trying to close off that dry air. She also appears to potentially be quite large.

Quoting 211. stormpetrol:




Watch the area on or just off the Nicaragua coast for the next 24-48 hours.
214. MAstu
question about Vongfong: I've heard that big storms churn up the waters and bring cooler water from greater depths to the surface. Therefore, a storm that follows close behind would have a harder time. So did Vongfong get big in spite of following close behind Phanfone? Is its track sufficiently different to dodge the cooler water? Has it been long enough that the cool water has warmed up again?
Quoting 212. beell:



CIPS Analog Threat Guidance



If those charts are anything to go by, it looks like I'm better off here in Houston than I'd be in say, Memphis or OK City---if I'm reading them right, that is. Any helpful hints?
Watch for this one too.


Grothar's comment count is a palindrome. For the moment.
maybe the season isn't over just yet...grothar you have been watching this area for a while you and I agree this area just might get it's act together...long time looker but hardly get in discussion..long time surfer and been through more storms than I care to caount living in Pensacola and now just north of orange beach.
Quoting Grothar:
Watch for this one too.


Central atlantic wave moving west....more interesting to the Antilles...
Quoting stormpetrol:



Watch the area on or just off the Nicaragua coast for the next 24-48 hours.


I was just checking on that for the 00Z
Now vort has weakened for EPac and strengthen for SW Carib vort
Now this goes for Sfc up to 500mb one think I can say for certain it appears to be splitting apart the EPac and CARIB vort which is good for the development to occur

Sfc obs indicating a stronger spin in the area which would indicate the likely possibility that a low has formed in the area or atleast is forming

Upper level anticyclone is centered over the SW Carib is now slowly allowing shear to relax in the area and the relaxed shear to expand

Anyway yes it's gonna be interesting to watch during the next few days

ATL heating up, the rest of Oct should be fun.
Quoting 221. HuracanTaino:

Central atlantic wave moving west....more interesting to the Antilles...


I would love some BIG BIG weather from it... BUT.... :-(
225. beell
Quoting 215. pureet1948:



If those charts are anything to go by, it looks like I'm better off here in Houston than I'd be in say, Memphis or OK City---if I'm reading them right, that is. Any helpful hints?


That's probably a good guess. I'm not a big fan of analogs for severe convective weather. Not to say they're useless. Keep up with the boyz at NWS Houston/Galveston would be the helpful hint.
:)

226. SLU
Quoting stormpetrol:



Watch the area on or just off the Nicaragua coast for the next 24-48 hours.


Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I was just checking on that for the 00Z
Now vort has weakened for EPac and strengthen for SW Carib vort
Now this goes for Sfc up to 500mb one think I can say for certain it appears to be splitting apart the EPac and CARIB vort which is good for the development to occur

Sfc obs indicating a stronger spin in the area which would indicate the likely possibility that a low has formed in the area or atleast is forming

Upper level anticyclone is centered over the SW Carib is now slowly allowing shear to relax in the area and the relaxed shear to expand

Anyway yes it's gonna be interesting to watch during the next few days



And if you consider the fact that convection is more decent and sustaining in the SW Carib unlike the Epac at the moment would also be telling

Quoting 74. JRRP:




Next year I want to see this in August and September!!
Quoting 225. beell:



That's probably a good guess. I'm not a big fan of analogs for severe convective weather. Not to say they're useless. Keep up with the boyz at NWS Houston/Galveston would be the helpful hint.
:)


Glad you said that (bolded). The patterns of reports on those analogs don't make a lot of sense.
And again to add to that with the tropical wave currently entering the SW Carib it should also help add an ... Extra kick or boost up to the SW Carib AOI
231. 882MB
Quoting 218. Grothar:

Watch for this one too.





Good evening Grothar, that's P45L, which I just seen the latest runs on 99L of the GFDL and HWRF, they both develop some type of small circulation, moving towards the northern islands, I have been watching this feature since yesterday and it has definitely gain more vorticity at 850MB and also tonight has shown a huge burst of very deep convection, also shear is high but has backed down some, I won't be surprised if the NHC highlights this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm also watching the wave on the far right side which also has decent vorticity, and some convection that one is P46L, but im definitely monitoring P45L, let's see how it looks by morning.
Quoting 218. Grothar:

Watch for this one too.




Hopefully it won't die... I need some rain, again and again.
Quoting 171. MAweatherboy1:

18z GFS is now showing signs of the ECMWF/UKMET storm, although it doesn't do a whole lot with it. That's the whole "Big 3" on board to some extent though. That's not to say it's a lock to happen; the 12z ECMWF ensembles were very unimpressive. But worth keeping an eye on over the coming days to see if we get any consistency. 99L is still pretty broad and disorganized, but it's getting closer. Code red by tomorrow morning, perhaps as early as this evening.



The broad nature should keep 99L from organizing into Subtropical/Tropical storm Fay for the next 24 hours or so, but I believe we should see it consolidate slowly and strengthen into a moderate tropical storm as it slowly moves out to the north and then east. As for the system the reliable global models have latched onto today, I'd say that it is an impressive wave, though much of the convection fired is from the divergent flow aloft due to high wind shear, but If we do see this system find a sweet-spot as it moves north of the islands, we could see it organize and develop into a tropical cyclone in 5-7 days. Overall, I believe there is a good chance of seeing at least one named storm, with a decent chance of seeing two storms over the next 10 days. Along with this new MJO pulse we may see another entity (most likely in the subtropics) pop up before October ends, so I'd say that we should end October with 2 to 3 named storms.

As for the Eastern pacific, it appears the season is beginning to wind down for now, though the monsoonal low over central America appears to be favoring the Pacific, and we could see Tropical Storm Trudy from this.
Quoting 220. Nolehead:

maybe the season isn't over just yet...grothar you have been watching this area for a while you and I agree this area just might get it's act together...long time looker but hardly get in discussion..long time surfer and been through more storms than I care to caount living in Pensacola and now just north of orange beach.


Most of the Atlantic basin is becoming much more favorable for development at least for the next week or so. Yes, I have been watching both waves for a while. It's those late Caribbean storms that concern me.
Quoting 214. MAstu:

question about Vongfong: I've heard that big storms churn up the waters and bring cooler water from greater depths to the surface. Therefore, a storm that follows close behind would have a harder time. So did Vongfong get big in spite of following close behind Phanfone? Is its track sufficiently different to dodge the cooler water? Has it been long enough that the cool water has warmed up again?

Climate change may have changed these old thoughts.
That cold water being dredged up might really be hot water.....the place where all that 400 heat has gone:)
All we can do is keep up with the current science.....I'm sure if they find hot water stored down deep in the oceans we'll hear about it. And we'll see cyclones fueling the next cyclone, instead of impeding them. We might be seeing it with Phanfong and Vongfong.
.
In the meantime I paid my $850 quarterly EXTRA incrementel hurricane/extreme weather premium today.
Quoting 231. 882MB:



Good evening Grothar, that's P45L, which I just seen the latest runs on 99L of the GFDL and HWRF, they both develop some type of small circulation, moving towards the northern islands, I have been watching this feature since yesterday and it has definitely gain more vorticity at 850MB and also tonight has shown a huge burst of very deep convection, also shear is high but has backed down some, I won't be surprised if the NHC highlights this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm also watching the wave on the far right side which also has decent vorticity, and some convection that one is P46L, but im definitely monitoring P45L, let's see how it looks by morning.


Here's a closer image of the blob, I mean pouch. Most impressive

Quoting 219. DonnieBwkGA:

Grothar's comment count is a palindrome. For the moment.


Not really. When I read it backwards, it looks the same. (Good eyes, Donnie)
Trying to build a little convection around the vorticity

Some decent supercells tonight in Texas. Hope everyone is safe. I also heard there may be some action next week??


(By the way, little off topic mention, Katy Perry has been confirmed as the Super Bowl Halftime Performer)
Ok Folks. This is the last several weeks of The Atlantic Cane season. Mystery Model Mischief Manifesting all season but this is crunch time. Tune in tomorrow,same speculation time,same suspect areas.New spins abound. Dont ya just love it. I do. But it will only be what it is when and if it is! Just my thought for the day.
Quoting Grothar:
Trying to build a little convection around the vorticity


If it can only throw some of it to the W and S side it would be great
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Climate change may have changed these old thoughts.
That cold water being dredged up might really be hot water.....the place where all that 400 heat has gone:)
All we can do is keep up with the current science.....I'm sure if they find hot water stored down deep in the oceans we'll hear about it. And we'll see cyclones fueling the next cyclone, instead of impeding them. We might be seeing it with Phanfong and Vongfong.
.
In the meantime I paid my $850 quarterly EXTRA incrementel hurricane/extreme weather premium today.


Really? I thought you lived at a higher elevation than I./(or further inland)Or my insurance isnt as good as I thought. Runs for file cabinet.
for us the Oct month seems to really like the gulf coast.....it seems to me these last few years the season goes a little longer than normal...I've read where the true north pole has been shifting for last few years, and I'm really wondering if that has a lot to do with the seasons going longer and stronger in say the pacific..granted it could just be a cycle but like I said I'm no expert just a surfer that loves weather...
Quoting 211. stormpetrol:




Watch the area on or just off the Nicaragua coast for the next 24-48 hours.

This does give a hint to that.
Quoting jdukes:

This does give a hint to that.

Yes it does
Quoting 214. MAstu:

question about Vongfong: I've heard that big storms churn up the waters and bring cooler water from greater depths to the surface. Therefore, a storm that follows close behind would have a harder time. So did Vongfong get big in spite of following close behind Phanfone? Is its track sufficiently different to dodge the cooler water? Has it been long enough that the cool water has warmed up again?
ge

In general yes..but the E Pac has the warmest of waters, and those extend very deep. I'm no one against the thought that we may be warming the earth...but that or not, E Pac doesn't play by any rules. It is the largest and hottest. A storm after the previous one won't make a dent, it's a typhoon machine given the atmospheric conditions now
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Severe weather and the Tropics coming alive this week & next should put a lot of people on edge. For this first time this hurricane season it appears that we are heading into an active few weeks. People in FL better start paying attention to these models as we could have a significant tropical threat to FL around October 20th.


I doubt it, I don't see anything in the guidance that indicates an alarm bell for a tropical threat to Florida anytime soon. I see a couple strong fronts for the 2nd half of October, one next week that could mean some strong thunderstorms with a strong trough and maybe negative tilt.
Quoting 242. QueensWreath:



Really? I thought you lived at a higher elevation than I./(or further inland)Or my insurance isnt as good as I thought. Runs for file cabinet.

I'm 12' over sea level living well inland....near zero risk for storm surge here.
Not even in a flood zone anymore as of 8/18/2014.
But, the beat goes on as far as paying those extra extreme weather insurance premiums.
If this still has tropical characteristics, it would be the deepest hurricane ever in Canada.



Its origin is in the NW Caribbean.

With the strong mjo we could make it to 10 named storms.........
Another FIM at 15 km resolution shows a very odd low over the southern half of Florida. I've never seen anything like this.

24 hour rainfall map shows it's a wet thing.

And the wind field is also very odd.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
If this still has tropical characteristics, it would be the deepest hurricane ever in Canada.



Its origin is in the NW Caribbean.


And this comes out of the AOI in the SW Caribbean right now

Well as I said keep an eye on it
Quoting 243. Nolehead:

for us the Oct month seems to really like the gulf coast.....it seems to me these last few years the season goes a little longer than normal...I've read where the true north pole has been shifting for last few years, and I'm really wondering if that has a lot to do with the seasons going longer and stronger in say the pacific..granted it could just be a cycle but like I said I'm no expert just a surfer that loves weather...

Good Evening everyone. To your point about the longer summers it has a lot to do with climate change. The shifting of the north pole or magnetic north is caused by the precession of equinoxes. This makes the Earth's tilt currently at 23.4 degrees and its elliptical orbit points to Polaris.

Precession of the Equinox:



Obliquity of the Ecliptic:



Obliquity of the ecliptic for 20,000 years, from Laskar (1986). The red point represents the year 2000.



The obliquity of the ecliptic is the angle of inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation.

The mean obliquity of the ecliptic is calculated by a formula of Laskar (1986), given in Jean Meeus: "Astronomical Algorithms", p. 135. According to Meeus the accuracy of the formula is 0.01'' between AD 1000 and 3000, and a few seconds of arc after 10,000 years.

The nutation in obliquity is computed by the most important terms of the "1980 IAU Theory of Nutation" (accuracy 0.01'').

The value of 2000, Jan 1 at 12 UT (Julian Day 2451545.0) is:

23.43929° = 23° 26' 21.448''



At present, the mean obliquity currently decreases by 0.0130° (46.8'') per century.
Near the year 12030 a minimum will be reached (22° 36' 41 '').
About the year -7530 there was a maximum inclination (24° 14' 07 '').

Link

By the way I was around the time of the Ancient Egyptians, Grothar was King and I was Prince Caleb.
256. vis0

Quoting 76. barbamz:

Not quite sure whether this pic is real as it looks very unreal, lol:

Tweet:
NWS Corpus ChristiVerifizierter Account ‏@NWSCorpus
Weather satellite GOES-East captured the moon (upper left) in one of its satellite images around midday today! #txwx
19:42 - 8. Okt. 2014


longest reaching selfie WOW!
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
If this still has tropical characteristics, it would be the deepest hurricane ever in Canada.



Its origin is in the NW Caribbean.



That's FIM 8

This is FIM 7

Link

And FIM 9

Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


That's FIM 8

This is FIM 7

Link

And FIM 9

Link


Very simillar
FIM Zeus
Simillar to FIM 7,8,& 9
But move N into GOM/Yucatan Peninsula and less time in the NW Carib
Quoting 218. Grothar:

Watch for this one too.





I saw it first.
Here's Jet Skiing the flooded St Johns River in East Central FL.. It's become evident the flooding severely damaged some parking lots & roads around here. Saw some monster potholes.

For Caleb:

Some say he bid his angels turn askance
The poles of the earth twice ten degrees and more
From the sun's axle; they with labor pushed
Oblique the centric globe:


Paradise Lost by John Milton, 1667
264. vis0

Quoting 186. washingtonian115:


these are delicious.
mmmmmmm thaahR (munch) vahree (munch) deelecheeous


Looks like a new low has formed behind 99L and looks moving W
266. vis0
Quoting 218. Grothar:

Watch for this one too.
In Brklyn we say watch for deese ones two
268. JRRP
14.329 N 46.082 W

wow


GFS y ECMWF ponen la nueva baja sobre PR como una tormenta.


Both models showing development over PR from that new Low behing 99L
Euro has a powerful hurricane in the Bahamas.



970mb OUCH on the Euro of all models!

I would say that this is probably the strongest system the Euro has modeled in the Atlantic Basin so far this hurricane season.
The Atlantic has decided to erupt!

Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like a new low has formed behind 99L and looks moving W

I'll give that low a 20/30. What about you.
love when i am on here and everyone else is sleepy night night...
278. ryang
Urrrrmm...is it September 10th or October 10th?

Quoting ryang:
Urrrrmm...is it September 10th or October 10th?

Look at the wave behind the new low, does that have potential.
Quoting 279. Andrebrooks:

Look at the wave behind the new low, does that have potential.
And look at all that shear.
I think the NHC will mention the low today or tomorrow.
Thought the Atlantic was "shut down for business?"
One man dead in Genoa flooding
The Local (Italy) Published: 10 Oct 2014 08:42 GMT 02:00
A 57-year-old man drowned after torrential rain hit the port city of Genoa late on Thursday night, causing the banks of the river Bisagno to break. ...






Accumulated rain in the last 24h. Doesn't look too catastrophic, but was obviously enough.


Current sat pic, foreboding more accumulating rain for certain areas in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy.

Detailed explanations at Estofex.

But now I'm really out for the weekend. All the best, folks!
Good morning. From the San Juan NWS regarding wave east of Lesser Antilles.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. BOTH THE 10/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS MORE SUPPORT NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR A WEAK LOW
PRES TO FORM...THE MAJORITY OF 10/00Z GEFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MON TO INDICATE HIGHER
RAIN PROBS WHEN COMPARED TO SAT AND SUN BUT CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT
THIS LOW PRES ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN
ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AXIS.
Good Morning
Very odd. Would push a lot of waves toward NC/SC.

Quoting 253. DonnieBwkGA:

And the wind field is also very odd.


Quoting 271. StormTrackerScott:

Euro has a powerful hurricane in the Bahamas.



970mb OUCH on the Euro of all models!


How many times this year has the Euro verified 9 days out??? NONE
We'll need to wait for a bit more consistency from ECMWF but it appears to be jumping on board with GFS in regards tropical development associated with P45L on Monday.

@96HR - GFS:



@96HR - ECMWF:



So far ECMWF moves P45L a bit faster than GFS and a bit further north.

If ECMWF keeps at it past 12Z then changes will be quite likely now that GFS has support from another major model.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100900
SPC AC 100900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE ERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY REGARDING SPEED AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF MEMBERS TEND TO EVOLVE THE
UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW SOONER THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS.

DAY 4 /MONDAY/ A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
STRONG LLJ WHICH WILL ADVECT RICH GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING OVER ERN TX. WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EWD WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

DAY 5-6 /TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/ AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
TUESDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND POSSIBLY THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WHICH...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2014




GFS and ECMWF xD

YES!!! YES!!! YEEEESSS!!!!
Quoting 284. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning. From the San Juan NWS regarding wave east of Lesser Antilles.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. BOTH THE 10/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS MORE SUPPORT NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR A WEAK LOW
PRES TO FORM...THE MAJORITY OF 10/00Z GEFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MON TO INDICATE HIGHER
RAIN PROBS WHEN COMPARED TO SAT AND SUN BUT CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT
THIS LOW PRES ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN
ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AXIS.


Lol this time... they may be too conservative :-) But I can understand given the many bust forecasts earlier this year
Lol...

Link

I hope the GFS is right


Please look better than this... :P
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Please look better than this... :P
What storm is that?
i agree with ryang it looks more like sept 10 than oct 10.
Somebody just told the Atlantic that the right switch has been finally turned on!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I would say that this is probably the strongest system the Euro has modeled in the Atlantic Basin so far this hurricane season.

It took Edouard into the 940s. Other than that, I think you're right.
Looks like it gets to the Bahamas then a front comes down and turns it NE.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro has a powerful hurricane in the Bahamas.



970mb OUCH on the Euro of all models!

Invest 99L continues to gain organization. It should be declared a subtropical storm late today or tomorrow.

Quoting 294. Andrebrooks:

What storm is that?
99L
Quoting 282. luvtogolf:

Thought the Atlantic was "shut down for business?"


The rainy season is over for Florida, so he has to have something else to over-hype. Just ignore as always.
Is the models still showing the sw carribean system
Quoting 287. jjjerry1:

How many times this year has the Euro verified 9 days out??? NONE


Pretty much. The fact that the models are showing this 9-10 days out is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen. But, that won't stop people from posting each iteration of it with DOOOOOOOM comments.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located about
350 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become a little better defined. This system is interacting
with an upper-level low and is producing showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the north and east of the center. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next day or
so while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Quoting 290. CaribBoy:





GFS and ECMWF xD

YES!!! YES!!! YEEEESSS!!!!


No love for the south, lol. Have fun Carib, maybe next hurricane season for me ;-)
Quite an impressive looking Atlantic basin right now. 99L is continuing to organize. We've got that wave at 50-55W which the Euro and GFS are showing development with. And what about that enormous wave around 30W? Wouldn't totally rule out that trying to develop either.

Quoting 299. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like it gets to the Bahamas then a front comes down and turns it NE.


It does it gets near the Cuba Coast then turn NNE. Again a lot of variables at large as many Euro Ensembles have it near or over FL as well.

Here is the Euro Controlled Ensemble run below. Could be a very big threat to the Bahamas and maybe FL too.

Quoting 302. tampabaymatt:



The rainy season is over for Florida, so he has to have something else to over-hype. Just ignore as always.


I'm not hyping anything just posting the best reliable model across the globe which shows a hurricane in the Bahamas in 8 days. That's not hype just posting what the model shows.
Here comes Fay, and possibly a friend.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure system located about 625 miles south
of Bermuda are becoming better organized, and a subtropical
depression or storm could be forming. If this trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward at 10 to
15 mph during the next couple of days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located about 700
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves moves westward or west-
northwestward to west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


WATCH OUT!!
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Pretty much. The fact that the models are showing this 9-10 days out is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen. But, that won't stop people from posting each iteration of it with DOOOOOOOM comments.


It's something to watch. The Euro typically waits until something forms before it jumps on board. So to see the Euro developing something is worth watching.
But as you mentioned, anything out 9-10 days will change over time or may not even happen.

And the Euro has changed from yesterday. Yesterday at 240 hours it had the low right over S Florida. Today at 240 hours the low is east of Florida heading NW through the Bahamas.

Euro 192 down near the north coast of Cuba.


Euro 240 hours just east of Florida heading to the northwest (looks like its making the famous right hand turn right before it gets to Florida - still a little too close for comfort).
YongFong approaching Okinawa from the South


Quoting LargoFl:


About a 300 mile shift to the east from yesterday's run.
Can't wait to see what this afternoon's run shows.

The Euro slows the front Largo and infact stalls it across S FL. What we have to watch is how fast does this trough come east at day 10 because if it is slower then a track right into FL would occur or if the trough is faster then it goes out to sea after hammering the Bahamas with hurricane conditions.

Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:

after hammering the Bahamas with hurricane conditions.




Nope, you're not hyping at all Scott.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h 2 hours ago

High Amp phase 1tropics means big end game, parade of 3.99l to develop impact Bermuda #2 threat further west. 3????

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h 6 hours ago

PARADE MAY BE STARTING IN ATLANTIC 99L sideswipes Bermuda, second system behind it develops also,heads for Bahamas
Doom, with a small "d"
322. SLU
Quoting 278. ryang:

Urrrrmm...is it September 10th or October 10th?




Too little too late?
Quoting Patrap:
Doom, with a small "d"


When do we get to use the big "D."


SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
325. 882MB
Quoting 231. 882MB:



Good evening Grothar, that's P45L, which I just seen the latest runs on 99L of the GFDL and HWRF, they both develop some type of small circulation, moving towards the northern islands, I have been watching this feature since yesterday and it has definitely gain more vorticity at 850MB and also tonight has shown a huge burst of very deep convection, also shear is high but has backed down some, I won't be surprised if the NHC highlights this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm also watching the wave on the far right side which also has decent vorticity, and some convection that one is P46L, but im definitely monitoring P45L, let's see how it looks by morning.


Good morning, as I was speaking to Grothar last night, I talked about P45L , being highlighted, well it now is and , NHC refers to it as it has gradual conditions for development, local meteorologist in PR, just mentioned it and said it and said it could come as TD or TS by Monday night, Tuesday.
Hey guys
Well looks like we may have Sub/TS Fay later today from 99L

And looks like we soon will have 90L to the ESE of 99L NHC has now marked it

That could become TD 8 or TS Gonzalo

I still think we could see something out of the stuff in the SW Caribbean

SW Carib AOI has vort increasing at all level and becoming more and more split off from Epac vort

SFC wind obs indicate that a decent developing spin is a few miles E of Nicaragua
Mid level spin noted to be elongated and stretches from central Honduras to a few miles E of Nicaragua however it's tightening up

The upper level anticyclone is centered in the SW Carib continuing to allow shear to weaken over the area
327. PTXer
Quoting 314. Patrap:

YongFong approaching Okinawa from the South





Looks like its ingesting some dry air. Hopefully that will weaken it before Okinawa
Quoting 320. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h 2 hours ago

High Amp phase 1tropics means big end game, parade of 3.99l to develop impact Bermuda #2 threat further west. 3????

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h 6 hours ago

PARADE MAY BE STARTING IN ATLANTIC 99L sideswipes Bermuda, second system behind it develops also,heads for Bahamas


We can't post that ncstorm as it would be considered hype. Maybe this poster this morning should watch JB's video.
Quoting 304. tampabaymatt:



Pretty much. The fact that the models are showing this 9-10 days out is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen. But, that won't stop people from posting each iteration of it with DOOOOOOOM comments.
If this was the GFS I'll be laughing at the solution.But the Euro has been conservative all season long and finally shows something of interest.The UKMET model which has also been conservative all season long finally shows something as well.So the GFS isn't by it's self here.I don't know about the canadian but you know it's bound to show something interesting and by interesting I mean laughable.
Highly amplified MJO coming into octant 2 next week. A MJO this strong would suggest a hyper active Atlantic for the next few weeks. We could get 3 named systems out of this MJO and maybe a 4th if something goes in the Caribbean down the road.
Remember the Canadian model a few days ago showing 3-4 systems ?
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



We can't post that ncstorm as it would be considered hype. Maybe this poster this morning should watch JB's video.


I will echo the same comment made by another poster here recently.....when have you seen a 9-10 day model run ever verify? The model runs are going to change 8,000 times in the next few days. What happened to the western Caribbean storm everyone was posting 9-10 day out model runs? Yeah, didn't happen. This one won't happen either.
On the news last night the met said this is the hottest its been in Orlando in 5 years and it always seems to me that when we get a hot October it leads to a cold Winter. Just a personal observation maybe Gro knows better on this.

2009/2010 Winter was brutal here in FL.
307. MAweatherboy1
The Canadian was the first model to show a parade of storms but a broken clock is right sometime too.The Atlantic has decided to act a little to late.

332. hurricane23
Lol.You read my mind XD.I must give credit where it's due and the Canadian sniffed this out when no other model showed nothing.
Quoting 334. StormTrackerScott:

On the news last night the met said this is the hottest its been in Orlando in 5 years and it always seems to me that when we get a hot October it leads to a cold Winter. Just a personal observation maybe Gro knows better on this.

2009/2010 Winter was brutal here in FL.


I'll never forget that winter. We had one stretch in Tampa where every day for about 6-7 days straight was a hard freeze. It's rare to get one hard freeze in Tampa. I also remember a day where the high did not get out of the 30's. I really hope this winter is not like that one.
Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:



I will echo the same comment made by another poster here recently.....when have you seen a 9-10 day model run ever verify? The model runs are going to change 8,000 times in the next few days. What happened to the western caribbean everyone was posting 9-10 day out model runs? Yeah, didn't happen. This one won't happen either.


If this was the GFS then I would agree but it not. The Euro seems to gaining confidence in this second system. Tracks will change yes but a general track into the Bahamas seems likely now.

All this hype is making me scared. I went to haunted house in NYC last night (Blood Manor) and this mornings blog is much more scarier. Florida better watch this one 😱
On May 28, 2008, Adam LeWinter and Director Jeff Orlowski filmed a historic breakup at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland. The calving event lasted for 75 minutes and the glacier retreated a full mile across a calving face three miles wide. The height of the ice is about 3,000 feet, 300-400 feet above water and the rest below water.

Quoting 336. tampabaymatt:



I'll never forget that winter. We had one stretch in Tampa where every day for about 6-7 days straight was a hard freeze. It's rare to get one hard freeze in Tampa. I also remember a day where the high did not get out of the 30's. I really hope this winter is not like that one.


I'm only 34 but it seems that every hot October has lead to a cold Winter in FL. Again just a personal observation and may not have any merit.
Orlando

watch your back door floridians. these are just teases now

THE BIG STORY IS AT OKINAWA, JAPAN ... WHERE A DIRECT HIT BY TYPHOON "VONGFONG" IS NOW LIKELY.

Currently.... (8:30 am EST / 9:30pm JST Friday)

Typhoon Vongfong is a Category 4 storm with winds of 140mph and gusts to 165mph.


Located 270 nm SE of Okinawa and moving NNW at just 6 mph! Landfall is still 24 hours away.

Yet ... the US AFB at Kadena already has sustained winds at 50+ mph and gusts over 80 mph! Incredible!


Okinawa is looking at a historic storm event with - get this - hurricane force winds expected to batter the island for

more than 50 hours.. split by a long, slow passing of Vongfong's eye in approximately 24 hours at around

10:00pm Saturday evening, local time. At Kadena, sustained winds are forecasted to peak at 115 mph and gust

near 140mph.

... And as ominous as this storm is, the Japanese are prepared!
The local building codes are so rugged that come Monday,
there will be little or no evidence of a typhoon disaster.

Terrific regular storm updates from Okinawa are available here:
Link

Wow Look at P46


Quoting 345. SFLWeatherman:

Wow Look at P46

Why couldn't the Atlantic look like this in September or August?.
AL, 90, 2014101012, , BEST, 0, 133N, 492W, 25, 1009, DB


wow red x and yellow x means lots to watch!
Quoting 346. washingtonian115:

Why couldn't the Atlantic look like this in September or August?.


There was no real strong MJO push. This is what I was explaining to webberweather last week as this was the reason the Atlantic was barren all hurricane season until now and yes for weeks the Atlantic was shut down for business but finally a strong MJO moved in from the E-Pac to give our basin a little taste of what the E-Pac has had since May.
we have invest 90L NOW maybe invest 91L BY TONIGHT!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 90, 2014101012, , BEST, 0, 133N, 492W, 25, 1009, DB

I guess I was right I win
352. JRRP
90L
353. JRRP

what the...
Quoting 353. JRRP:


what the...


What looks to be future Hanna should recurve OTS. The area east of the Islands will be a threat to PR then the Bahamas
356. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


What looks to be future Hanna should recurve OTS. The area east of the Islands will be a threat to PR then the Bahamas

yeah...
357. 882MB
3 systems in the Atlantic worth watching, haven't seen this much activity since, I don't know when, but sure has the blog going crazy, lol. I'm really paying close attention to P45L, probably 90L later on today. I went to the beach yesterday and, waters are pretty warm, and this system has until Monday night to get here, if it stays under low shear this could even be a strong tropical storm, but I will wait, before I keep on making more predictions, just my point of view. Its starting to show some outflow, but thunderstorms have collapsed some which is a normal process with developing systems, probably refire back up again tonight, lowering more the pressure, people in the northern leeward islands and PR should monitor this system BUT NOT PANIC!! Just something to watch this weekend ;)

90L
Location: 13.3N 49.2W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

Quoting hurricanes2018:
we have invest 90L NOW maybe invest 91L BY TONIGHT!

Hey cut it out
Don't get ahead of yourself
361. SLU
7-5-4-1

At 1200 UTC, 10 October 2014, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL99) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 23.5°N and 63.3°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.
Quoting 335. washingtonian115:

307. MAweatherboy1
The Canadian was the first model to show a parade of storms but a broken clock is right sometime too.The Atlantic has decided to act a little to late.

332. hurricane23
Lol.You read my mind XD.I must give credit where it's due and the Canadian sniffed this out when no other model showed nothing.

I doubt it ends up being a big parade of storms anyways. 99L looks like a lock to develop, but no guarantees beyond that. The Euro still lacks ensemble support for its storm and the UKMET has backed off on that also. And whether anything comes out of the Caribbean this month remains highly questionable. So an uptick in activity relative to what we've been seeing, but whether we get a burst of 2-4 storms is uncertain. The MJO pulse would suggest that possibility, but it is 2014, so we'll just have to wait and see.
According to the Live recon website, we have STD7 now.:)
Link
Quoting 358. SFLWeatherman:

90L
Location: 13.3�N 49.2�W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM




Here is the issue with the differing tracks.

Euro has trough further west which in turn moves 90L into the Bahamas.


GFS has trough moving out fast causing 90L to recurve OTS
Like I said yesterday, this the best that I have seen the Atlantic MDR look since the summer: this wave sneaked up on us.  No support from a non-existent ITCZ but so large and full of convective activity that it should be able to develop within a very expansive moisture envelope.  This one will not have a dry air issue but the limiting factors will be shear and cooler ssts as it moves northward:



366. JRRP
358...360..
the Euro strengthens the high pressure
we will see
It's like the peak of the season came late this year and instead of Sept being peak it's Oct
ran the loop looks like some kind of circulation mid to upper spinning right over the border of nicaraqua hondurus its stationary.
Quoting 353. JRRP:


what the...


Some of the deepest convection I have ever seen this far east in the Atlantic Ocean this year. Ocean temperatures are warming significantly due to the lack of convection over the past two months allowing the sunshine to warm the surface of the ocean. I think we have a legitimate chance at three to four named storms over the next two weeks.
372. JRRP

06z GFS liked 90L.



THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 30 WEST WITH NO X LOOK the best!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
06z GFS liked 90L, apparently.

Euro too. :)
Quoting hurricanes2018:


THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 30 WEST WITH NO X LOOK the best!!
Until we see model support ok. :)
Quoting islander101010:
ran the loop looks like some kind of circulation mid to upper spinning right over the border of nicaraqua hondurus its stationary.


Not upper

Low and mid level

Please read bottom section

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys
Well looks like we may have Sub/TS Fay later today from 99L

And looks like we soon will have 90L to the ESE of 99L NHC has now marked it

That could become TD 8 or TS Gonzalo

I still think we could see something out of the stuff in the SW Caribbean

SW Carib AOI has vort increasing at all level and becoming more and more split off from Epac vort

SFC wind obs indicate that a decent developing spin is a few miles E of Nicaragua
Mid level spin noted to be elongated and stretches from central Honduras to a few miles E of Nicaragua however it's tightening up

The upper level anticyclone is centered in the SW Carib continuing to allow shear to weaken over the area
Here is the current vort signature at the surface and mid-levels and shear per CIMSS.  Not stacked vertically yet and it will take a little time.   The strong band of shear just to the north will present a problem with vertical stacking if the complex gains latitude; you can already see the sheer flowing across the northern flank streaming off the higher cloud deck:




surface

mid-level
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
It's like the peak of the season came late this year and instead of Sept being peak it's Oct


There's usually a secondary peak in mid-October, that combined with a CCKW predicted to traverse through the Atlantic it's not surprising we're seeing 99L and probably 90L try to develop. Both of these systems look like they'll traverse through the "sweet spot" this year that's north of the islands and just to the east of the United States near Bermuda.
Based on the TWC map, Florida has never had a landfalling hurricane in October that's come from the east/Atlantic.

All the landfalling October hurricanes have come up from the Caribbean.

So the Atlantic is finally waking up. If this was September then the Conus could be in trouble. I can't see how any of these systems make it to the Conus. Strong cold front pushes through Florida next week pretty much blocking us.
Here is the current vis-shot where you can see the streaming on the northern flank:

383. JRRP
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
14:30 PM IST October 10 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts (Orange Message)

At 9:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm. It lays centered near 15.0N 86.8E about 470 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km south southeast of Gopalpur.

The system would move west northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon on Sunday.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E and moderate to intense convection over rest bay north of 10.0N

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 984 hPa.

Storm surge warning:
================
Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of northern coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
21:00 PM JST October 10 2014
===================================
Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (925 hPa) located at 23.1N 129.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
140 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
300 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 25.9N 128.3E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) east southeast of Naha [Okinawa Prefecture]
48 HRS 28.5N 127.4E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) west of Amami Oshima
72 HRS 31.9N 132.8E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South of Shikoku [Kōchi Prefecture]
Impressive convective burst regardless of potential development issues:

387. JRRP
14.825 N 51.017 W
There are approximately 13 of the 51 ensemble members for the Euro showing support..more than yesterday..most are doing an OTS scenario..those that dont go OTS either show a S FL landfall/Keys and Entering the GOM/or making landfall in SC or NC..

basically a little something for everyone..
all the way thru its runs ,Canadian doesn't show what the Euro does near florida...........
90L...

i think people have forgotten...october is the second busiest month for tropical activity.......it's not like september now...it's just like october average


Quoting 335. washingtonian115:

307. MAweatherboy1
The Canadian was the first model to show a parade of storms but a broken clock is right sometime too.The Atlantic has decided to act a little to late.

332. hurricane23
Lol.You read my mind XD.I must give credit where it's due and the Canadian sniffed this out when no other model showed nothing.


Hey that's no fair Washi. The CMC actually showed nothing most of the season, even when the GFS was shooting out ghost storms left right and center. And if the CMC shows nothing, you know the Atlantic is dead lol.

I have to say though, I find it hilarious that the Atlantic has chosen now to light up. We still have the favourable phase of the MJO to come through to our basin in the next couple of weeks too. Maybe we could see as many as 4-5 storms in October alone?
Quoting 395. ricderr:

i think people have forgotten...october is the second busiest month for tropical activity.......it's not like september now...it's just like october average





October is the 3rd busiest month. September averages 3.5 storms, August 2.3 and October 2.0. If we get 3 or more storms in October, that will be above average activity for this time of year and that looks quite possible in the next couple weeks.
398. 882MB
Can someone please post 90L'S RGB loop, reminds me ALOT of when Jeanne was forming near the islands, it also develops from a huge mess. You can also see the center really tightening up.
The next two weeks might be the busiest of the season so far as the MJO amplifies and moves across the basin and a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave passes through. Things should calm down to round out October.

Invest 99L is the most imminent threat for development, and as I said earlier, it should be declared Subtropical Storm Fay sometime today or tomorrow. This one is no threat to the United States, but it might bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Bermuda on its way out to sea.

Invest 90L is obviously interesting because of the ECMWF, which brings this down to 970mb while in the Bahamas next week. There's plenty of time for things to change, but the idea of at least a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Atlantic next week makes sense given the overall pattern. Whether or not this poses a threat to the United States is unknown right now.

The area of convection at 30W looks impressive despite the lack of reliable model support.

400. vis0
CREDIT:(Top to bottom)
Navy at Monterey (water vapor)
aviationweather (IR b&W)
Univ. of Washington ()
SUBJECT: activit(IES) in the Atlantic Tropics & observing the Caribbean & GoMx(GuoMx)

CANT GET A BREAK FROM UTUBE, 15 mins no embed code.
here the link,(ONLY till 201410-10-1045Z)
http://youtu.be/uQ8wjXTkD5E


invest 90L looking good this morning
402. Ed22
Good morning weather fokes, firstly i should say we have four areas to monitor they are as follows: Invest 99L which is closed to becoming tropical or sub-tropical storm Fay later today, next newly formed Invest 90L over the central Atlantic just southeast of Invest 99L which could become a tropica cyclone in the next 48 to 72 hours from now, the next one is an area of disturbed weather is which is located southwest of Cape Verde island needs to be watched and monitored closely for possible development and finally the southwestern Caribbean could be a place for tropical cyclonic activity further done into next week. Weather folklore let see what happens to these tropical disturbances.
403. Ed22
Good morning weather fokes, firstly i should say we have four areas to monitor they are as follows: Invest 99L which is closed to becoming tropical or sub-tropical storm Fay later today, next newly formed Invest 90L over the central Atlantic just southeast of Invest 99L which could become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 to 72 hours from now, the next one is an area of disturbed weather is which is located southwest of Cape Verde island needs to be watched and monitored closely for possible development and finally the southwestern Caribbean could be a place for tropical cyclonic activity further done into next week. Weather folklore let see what happens to these tropical disturbances.


WHERE INVEST 90L going
Quoting 399. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The next two weeks might be the busiest of the season so far as the MJO amplifies and moves across the basin and a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave passes through. Things should calm down to round out October.

Invest 99L is the most imminent threat for development, and as I said earlier, it should be declared Subtropical Storm Fay sometime today or tomorrow. This one is no threat to the United States, but it might bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Bermuda on its way out to sea.

Invest 90L is obviously interesting because of the ECMWF, which brings this down to 970mb while in the Bahamas next week. There's plenty of time for things to change, but the idea of at least a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Atlantic next week makes sense given the overall pattern. Whether or not this poses a threat to the United States is unknown right now.

The area of convection at 30W looks impressive despite the lack of reliable model support.



It seems that fay, and Gonzalo are about to make their appearance. However, the system just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands seems worthy of some classification at this point. It would not be overstated to call this an invest at this point. IMHO iNVEST 91L...
God Bless us All!
October is the 3rd busiest month. September averages 3.5 storms, August 2.3 and October 2.0. If we get 3 or more storms in October, that will be above average activity for this time of year and that looks quite possible in the next couple weeks.


yep eviro....i posted the grph......saw it......knew it was third.......and still typed second......i'll take my blog punishment now...LOL
We're lucky that low spinning over Central America isn't in the Western Caribbean. It's just spinning and hasn't moved much over the past couple days.

ALL INDICATORS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ACTIVITY IS IN PROGRESS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...CYCLOGENESES UNDERWAY-
It seems that fay, and Gonzalo are about to make their appearance. However, the system just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands also seems worthy of some classification at this point. It would not be overstated to call this an invest at this point (Hanna). IMHO INVEST 91L... ALSO that system near/ or on the caost of Nicaragua seems to have acquired more spin and convection likewise.
God Bless us All!
If you are a HS Senior applying to colleges right now, WU-mail me with schools to which you will apply, why you want to apply there, and what you want to study there.

If you don't fit this criteria but have any advice/info/recommendations you'd like to offer, I will not be back to read the blog so Wu-Mail me.

I myself am trying to make a decision, and am getting info on where others plan to go or think is best to go.

Thanks!
Heavy rain today, but it is light right now.
Quoting 405. NatureIsle:


It seems that fay, and Gonzalo are about to make their appearance. However, the system just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands seems worthy of some classification at this point. It would not be overstated to call this an invest at this point. IMHO iNVEST 91L...
God Bless us All!


There is a possibility of a few developing systems over the next two weeks. Whie the NAVGEM and Candadian models are not showing anything much on 90L, the GFS and EURO are showing strong development. The only difference is in the track. Right now, I would not rely that much on the GFS. I can see their thinking on a turn Northward right now, but depending on the timing, I think the EURO will be tending towards a more westerly movement over the next few days. Wind shear it pretty low with 90L and the northern Leewards and Turks and Caicos as well as the Bahamas should really watch this one.

As Naturelsle pointed out......now that is a blob!


Quoting NatureIsle:

It seems that fay, and Gonzalo are about to make their appearance. However, the system just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands seems worthy of some classification at this point. It would not be overstated to call this an invest at this point. IMHO iNVEST 91L...
God Bless us All!

Damar help us please!
So, update: NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Depression Seven to the south of Bermuda at 11 AM.
Atlantic development!!!!! "cough recurve storms cough...." Atlantic development!!

See nobody cares.


nice center to invest 99L
I live in Honduras, so we´re watching the low in the Honduras/Nicaragua border. I think something will develop here.
Quoting Salvajega:
So, update: NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Depression Seven to the south of Bermuda at 11 AM.

Sez who?
Where do you get that satellite from?
Quoting 413. Grothar:

As Naturelsle pointed out......now that is a blob!



HudHud about to bring some heavy rain to India

Special Message from NHC
Quoting 419. 62901IL:


Sez who?
A statement at the very top of the NHC page confirms we have Subtropical TD 7. They will start issuing advisories at 11 am, for those who may not yet know.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Special Message from NHC

Yes!!!!!!!! WOOHOO!!!! For the theme song, google Ganon Your Face. Its what I'm listening to right now.
425. JRRP
90L
Quoting 390. ricderr:




Looks like our new storm will form in the center of a historically busy area then :)
Quoting 422. SFLWeatherman:

Special Message from NHC



99L is a subtropical depression. It will be announced shortly.
Well, we should Subtropical Depression Seven in half an hour or so, and by the looks of the models now, we could see a second tropical cyclone in the next 3 to 5 days as newly designated invest 90L appears that it may try to become the next strong system (likely a hurricane according to the GFS and ECMWF) next week. A nice one-two punch for October, and we should still have roughly 10 more days left in the month as things begin to wind down again...
429. vis0
Thought i posted this if repeat i can't find it(its "old" only till 201410-10;1045z but it shows genesis of 2 of ???, maybe the  "Grothar x2 quote i replied to as if in a "brklyn "yo" accent" 2 or 3 pgs back, onward to the next blog

430. JRRP

Quoting 336. tampabaymatt:



I'll never forget that winter. We had one stretch in Tampa where every day for about 6-7 days straight was a hard freeze. It's rare to get one hard freeze in Tampa. I also remember a day where the high did not get out of the 30's. I really hope this winter is not like that one.


2010 was notable in the DC metro area for extreme snow, two huge dumps in Feb, a respectable snow in January and a huge dump the previous December. Cold was not notable.. that went further south. Eastern Canada had a record or near record warm winter.

After that the year was notable for extreme steady warmth, the third warmest spring of record, the only June in DC metro that averaged over 80F, the hottest DC summer of record, and the longest growing season of record as DCA did not freeze until December and did not freeze at all in March. Conditions gradually reverted to normal in fall and December 2010 averaged very cold. Two years later, spring of 2012 was even more extremely warm and both that spring and the calendar year were record warm for the DC metro area. Reversion back to typical was rapid in August that year and we've not had extreme heat since( so far.). After four failed summers (following thirty six successful ones) I was able to grow lima beans again in summer 2014.

433. vis0
Quoting 427. Grothar:



99L is a subtropical depression. It will be announced shortly.
EdMahmoud from Texas was correct to the detail on the subtropical aspect . Grothar "onthe." correct on OBS and does it with patience, has a high bat avg. waits for his pitch,  *, if i may scratch my back (add sound of person scratching lizards scales here) ah that feels better.

*WunderKidCay is a free swinger but a good one , notice he gets the area that eventually creates. So he's 3rd batter has HR potential just has to use enthusiastic energy (which is a good thing) towards picking his areas.

Quoting 413. Grothar:

As Naturelsle pointed out......now that is a blob!





The tropical Atlantic is looking more moist and active than it did in September.
You realize the Doc will be on in a few minutes and no one will ever see our great entries. We will have to post them all over again.

Quoting 404. hurricanes2018:



WHERE INVEST 90L going


Up, up and away, in my beautiful recurve'
Quoting 434. Jedkins01:



The tropical Atlantic is looking more moist and active than it did in September.


You're right. I think we may see a few systems. The Atlantic hasn't looked this good all season. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked this good all season.
Quoting 435. Grothar:

You realize the Doc will be on in a few minutes and no one will ever see our great entries. We will have to post them all over again.




You'd be surprised at the page views who DO NOT read comments.

: P
Quoting Grothar:
You realize the Doc will be on in a few minutes and no one will ever see our great entries. We will have to post them all over again.



Yep, it should be any minute.
Quoting 439. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, it should be any minute.

Bet he waits for the "official" NHC depression designation.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Quoting 349. StormTrackerScott:



There was no real strong MJO push. This is what I was explaining to webberweather last week as this was the reason the Atlantic was barren all hurricane season until now and yes for weeks the Atlantic was shut down for business but finally a strong MJO moved in from the E-Pac to give our basin a little taste of what the E-Pac has had since May.


The MJO doesn't determine everything, there were some positive events in August and September. However, a lack of instability, dry air, and shear all contributed to suppress most potential activity.
Subtropical Depression SEVEN
11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 10
Location: 23.8°N 63.7°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
445. JRRP


HERE WE GO
I expect 90L to be in code orange next TWO and maybe the Caribbean will be introduced again.
449. Relix
Who turned on the switch?
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I expect 90L to be in code orange next TWO and maybe the Caribbean will be introduced again.


Yeah, I'm still watching the Caribbean. It has the highest probability of being a threat to the U.S.
These systems in the Atlantic are exciting to watch form, but I don't see them as a threat to the U.S.


Subtropical Depression SEVEN
Quoting 449. Relix:

Who turned on the switch?
I DID IT!! i hope everyone is happy now!!!
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I expect 90L to be in code orange next TWO and maybe the Caribbean will be introduced again.

Yes I agree plus maybe an added yellow X to the E of 90L

So 4 areas



The best looking thing out there.
Quoting 436. Patrap:



Up, up and away, in my beautiful recurve'
It looks like 1995 out there....just not near as many storms....Mornin Pat.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I'm still watching the Caribbean. It has the highest probability of being a threat to the U.S.
These systems in the Atlantic are exciting to watch form, but I don't see them as a threat to the U.S.


Yep

This time of year here in Cayman gets active
457. JRRP

lol
Shear is still really bad in the western Caribbean. Until the shear drops, there's nothing developing down here.
Quoting 457. JRRP:


lol


A number of models have 90L as a very strong system.

Quoting 448. Grothar:


Quoting 454. Grothar:




The best looking thing out there.
It wants to gro feathers
Shear tendency shows some relaxing around Cuba.

Quoting 458. Sfloridacat5:

Shear is still really bad in the western Caribbean. Until the shear drops, there's nothing developing down here.

Yep...50 kts will will kill a system, especially one trying to form..Shear is still low enough in the extreme S.W.
464. JRRP
Quoting Grothar:


A number of models have 90L as a very strong system.

well.... you know.... it's 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Shear is still really bad in the western Caribbean. Until the shear drops, there's nothing developing down here.

Shear ain't that bad
Well it's a bit bad in the Norther NW Caribbean but elsewhere not that bad plus with that upper anticyclone in the SW shear is falling

Infact it's almost below climo


Quoting 464. JRRP:


well.... you know.... it's 2014
Yep...and the atmosphere is strange....nuthin surprises me now....not to mention a large part of the U.S. will likely have a potent severe weather event soon...You may get some rough weather before its all over.
Good morning all.

Big video update on the tropics. From the Atlantic to Hawaii to Asia, everyone has something to watch:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 10th, 2014
6z HWRF outernest of 99L



469. JRRP
Typhoon YongFong Rainbow Loop



MAYBE INVEST 91L soon
Quoting 468. ncstorm:

6z HWRF outernest of 99L







99L is now SD 7
476. Ed22
Quoting 448. Grothar:


This next disturbance could be developing a low right now, it looks impressive than Sub-tropical depression #7 right now. This tropical system could be a game changer this weekend into early next week.

All Fish Storms for sure!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands has
developed a large area of deep convection in a long curved band
north and west of the center. First-light visible satellite imagery
also indicates that the low-level center of the low has become
better defined since yesterday. Satellite classifications are a
subtropical 1.5 from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the system's
involvement with a nearby upper-level low and roughly 100 n mi
radius of maximum winds also argue for a subtropical designation. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the depression
this afternoon to better assess its intensity and structure.

The protective cover of the nearby upper low will provide a
relatively low vertical wind shear environment in the short
term, with the cyclone over warm sea surface temperatures of 28-
29 deg C. The model guidance indicates that the depression should
become embedded in increasing southerly vertical shear east of the
same upper-level trough after 24 hours, so the system has a
short window for intensification or transformation into a tropical
cyclone. Global models depict the cyclone becoming absorbed by a
frontal zone over the north-central Atlantic before 72 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

The depression is moving northwestward or 320/09 around the
southwestern perhiphery of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. The deep-layer steering flow around this feature should
cause the cyclone to turn northward within 24 hours, after which it
will turn northeastward in increasing southwesterly flow at the base
of a longwave trough prior to absorption by the front. The NHC track
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA, through-
out the period and between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for
Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Alright, who pressed the red button???

Morning ASCAT of 07L
Quoting 466. hydrus:

Yep...and the atmosphere is strange....nuthin surprises me now....not to mention a large part of the U.S. will likely have a potent severe weather event soon...You may get some rough weather before its all over.


Watching it closely. Possible upgrade to a moderate risk down south.