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Super Typhoon Vongfong Headed Towards Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2014

Category 4 Super Typhoon Vongfong is at the verge of Category 5 strength with 155 mph winds as it continues a period of rapid intensification in the waters about 1000 miles south of Japan. Vongfong plowed through the U.S. Mariana islands of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian on Sunday as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, causing mostly minor damage. The typhoon is expected to turn to the north on Wednesday, and is a threat to hit Japan on Monday. Satellite loops show Vongfong is an extremely impressive storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, excellent upper-level outflow, and a large 30-mile diameter eye. With the typhoon over warm waters of 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, intensification into a Category 5 storm by Wednesday appears likely. Cooler waters and higher wind shear will induce weakening late in the week as the typhoon approaches Japan. Vongfong is the third Super Typhoon of 2014 in the Western Pacific. The others were Halong (160 mph winds, the only Cat 5 so far), Rammasun (155 mph winds), and Neoguri (155 mph winds.) A Super Typhoon is defined as being any Western Pacific typhoon with sustained winds of 150 mph or greater.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Vongfong taken at approximately 10 pm EDT October 6, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was intensifying from a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Japan cleaning up from Typhoon Phanfone
Vongfong is following a track remarkably similar to Typhoon Phanfone, which made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds on Japan's main island of Honshu at 7:16 pm EDT Sunday, October 5, 2014 near the city of Hamamatsu in western Shizuoka Prefecture, about 125 miles west-southwest of Tokyo. A few hours later, the core of the typhoon passed over Tokyo, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 70 mph were recorded. Phanfone killed at least seven and left four missing, injuring at least 62 others.


Figure 2. High waves batter a breakwater at a port at Kihou town in Mie prefecture, central Japan on October 6, 2014, from Category 1 Typhoon Phanfone. Image credit: JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images.

Simon's remnants to bring heavy rains to Arizona
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Simon has weakened to sustained winds of 40 mph at 11 am EDT Tuesday, and will likely dissipate by Tuesday night. Simon's remnants will slosh to the northeast over the north-central coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula and into Mainland Mexico, bringing 3 - 6" of rain into these regions though Wednesday. Deep moisture from Simon will flow northeastward into the Southwest U.S., bringing a round of heavy rains for Arizona. There will not be as much moisture associated with Simon compared to the what the remnants of Hurricane Odile brought in September; rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" can be expected over Arizona Tuesday - Friday from Simon's remnants.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the three-day period 8 am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Friday from the NWS Weather Prediction Center. A plume of 1 - 2" of rain is predicted over Northern Mexico and Arizona from the remnants of Hurricane Simon.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS model shows an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda could develop early next week. We should also keep an eye on the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua late this week. Low pressure over Central America will be capable of forming a center of circulation over the Caribbean, as the GFS model has been suggesting with recent runs. Anything that develops in the Caribbean should move slowly to the northwest early next week, bringing very heavy rains to much of Central America. What is more likely to happen is that the low pressure area over Central America will spawn a strong tropical disturbance by Sunday in the Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, as predicted by the UKMET and European models. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this Pacific disturbance 5-day development odds of 20%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the new blog, Dr. Masters. Great work as always!

:)
Sadly,

Air Force IDs Okinawa Airmen Washed Out to Sea by Typhoon Phanfone

TOKYO -- Rough seas slowed the search early Tuesday for a missing U.S. airman — one of three swept away while taking photos near giant waves caused by Typhoon Phanfone in Japan. The body of Senior Master Sgt. James Swartz, an aerospace propulsion superintendent with the 116th Air Control Wing of Georgia Air National Guard, was recovered Sunday by the Japanese Coast Guard, USAF Kadena Air Base said in a statement. Georgia Air National Guard member Master Sgt. Daniel Paschal, an aerospace propulsion craftsman with the 116th Air Control Wing, and Air Force Staff Sgt. Joshua Schoenhoff, an instrument and flight control systems specialist with the 461st Air Control Wing, were also washed away. The unidentified body of one of the pair was recovered Tuesday.

"We share in the sorrow felt by these airmen's loved ones," said Col. Henry Cyr, 461st Air Control Wing's commander in the statement. "We will do all that we can to work through this tragedy together." The three were on temporary duty at Kadena and were visiting the northwest coast of Okinawa island. HH-60s from Kadena and Japanese Coast Guard aircraft searched the area but rough seas with 10-15 foot waves complicated the efforts for several hours beginning late Monday.

From last blog

Ok two new lows formed now now 12Z Sfc charts

One in the SW CARIB
Next one was NE of CARIB



Some pretty hefty totals expected later this weekend into next week for the Cumberland Plateau!!

Did Wunderground crash this morning?
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Did Wunderground crash this morning?
I think so, couldn't get to it for 5 minutes.
Re-post from last blog:
There exists a fairly significant vort max associated with the convection in the SW Caribbean. Kudos to the GFS if this actually becomes anything in the Atlantic; it's already better than I had anticipated. You can watch it quite nicely using the controls on this site.
Latest NAM @ 84hrs.
Quoting 7. Andrebrooks:

I think so, couldn't get to it for 5 minutes.


I had to leave for work.
@84HR NAM interesting to see at the very least.

looks like the second punch will be stronger for japan.......ouch.........
Typhoon VongFong

Quoting Patrap:
Typhoon VongFong

If only that was in the Atlantic.
Typhoon 19W VONGFONG

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2014 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:38:14 N Lon : 133:37:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 908.0mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 130km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.4 degrees





Current shear in Caribbean



Shear tendency to increase by 10 knots.



Grothar still on the SHEAR BANDWAGON LOL
new gfs is quite different
12Z NAM and 12Z GFS is coming out now



With potential development so close together in Central America, it will be interesting to see which one develops, or is able to intake energy from each other. so far, this Pacific side has been the more favorable.



Typhoon VongFong

WV Loop

12Z GFS 42hrs
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters.....
Thanks Dr. Masters!


Vongfong is an incredible looking storm.
I love the rainbow color scheme. Catchier than AVN. GFS analyses 25 knots just North of the blob, but much lighter winds over it, (CIMMS tends to confirm favorable shear) and if it does start developing, the stronger winds to the North could help develop an outflow jet. Looks like a tricky call on what basin looking at the 500 mb height forecast on the GFS. Looking at lower level heights, faster development increases the chances it can stay in the Atlantic basin and then come North. Even 6Z GFS gets this to Central America, so gut is a East Pac storm. But who knows? Not I, said the pig. 12Z GFS has just started outputting.

But the 6Z GFS sort of shows something resembling 1949, the only major hurricane in post-Columbian times to hit Texas in October (October 3 and 4), which became a TC in the Pacific, crossed back into the Gulf, and hit Texas near Freeport, just South of Houston. The model, and mid-October climatology says Texas would be spared.

I still think system ENE of Greater Antilles has a better chance of becoming Fay, since model likes it, and it will stay in the Atlantic. I trust the GFS a lot more when it is developing something that is already there. The SW Caribbean system also has a real shot, but the basin it gets named in is more uncertain. But if we got to 7 named storms, that is almost a normal cold AMO season, and we're not tied with 1986 with 6 named storms or worst since 1983 (2014's 5 named storms beats 1983's 4 named storms) if nothing else develops. Fay alone only gets us 3 extra years on the lame timeline. But it'd be a legitimate tie, prior to 2001 all sub-TCs were numbered, not named, and we haven't had a sub-TC this season. (I asterisk this season as a tie with 1986 as lame-o if Fay is sub-tropical)

Wow!

TXPQ22 KNES 071509
TCSWNP

A. 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 07/1432Z

C. 17.5N

D. 133.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT=7.0
WHEN 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 7.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
A trough is expected to keep Vongfong to the east of the main islands. However, the swells and surge from a system this strong could bring very serious coast flooding either way.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Either way, as the old saying goes, "Whether the rock hits the glass or the glass hits the rock; it is still bad for the glass. Japan has certainly see its share of disasters the past few years. They need a break.

Quoting 21. SFLWeatherman:

12Z NAM and 12Z GFS is coming out now






Besides not being all that great in the tropics anyway, NAM is a mesoscale model and close to the edge of the domain in the SW Caribbean and not far enough from the edge of the domain with the Atlantic system for comfort at the beginning of the run.

You know what the NAM is good at. 2008's Edouard, the NAM beat the GFS and Euro as being first to see it. (Canadian also developed it first). I am wondering if smaller scale non-tropical origin features well within side the model domain, the NAM might not be competitive with the globals.

I remember 2008 Edouard, it rained on my lawn in 2008. Dolly rained on my lawn, Ike and the cold front that followed, rained on my lawn. Haven't had a wet Summer like that since.
Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Thanks Dr. Masters!


Vongfong is an incredible looking storm.


Buzz Saw
"Vongfong is the third Super Typhoon of 2014 in the Western Pacific" should probably read "Vongfong is the fourth Super Typhoon of 2014 in the Western Pacific".
Hate to quibble, Dr. Masters, but.....

"Vongfong is the third Super Typhoon of 2014 in the Western Pacific. The
others were Halong (160 mph winds, the only Cat 5 so far), Rammasun (155
mph winds), and Neoguri (155 mph winds.)
"

Wouldn't that make it the fourth? Maybe I'm missing something....sorry to be a nitpicker.... thanks for the great blog post, as always.
It appears an anomalous trough will set up sometime next week over the East perhaps giving Florida a more sustained Autumn blast!
The potential SW carribean system reminds me of an Ida situation


maybe a yellow x soon
Quoting 38. weatherbro:

It appears an anomalous trough will set up sometime next week over the East perhaps giving Florida a more sustained Autumn blast!


Dude, you're like the bizarro version of Storm Tracker Scott! LOL
Quoting EdMahmoud:


Besides not being all that great in the tropics anyway, NAM is a mesoscale model and close to the edge of the domain in the SW Caribbean and not far enough from the edge of the domain with the Atlantic system for comfort at the beginning of the run.

You know what the NAM is good at. 2008's Edouard, the NAM beat the GFS and Euro as being first to see it. (Canadian also developed it first). I am wondering if smaller scale non-tropical origin features well within side the model domain, the NAM might not be competitive with the globals.

I remember 2008 Edouard, it rained on my lawn in 2008. Dolly rained on my lawn, Ike and the cold front that followed, rained on my lawn. Haven't had a wet Summer like that since.


It must be pretty good for everyday forecasting (short term).
Local news Chief Meteorologists told me his favorite model is the NAM.
He also tries very hard to be accurate with his forecasts.

I asked him about long term models, and he said he doesn't trust anything beyond 3-5 days.
20141007 | 1432 | W-PAC | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 17.5 | -133.7 | 898 | 140 | 19W | VONGFONG | 1 | EM


Link
GFS in 84hrs




Super Typhoon Vongfong 11:58 AM EDT on October 07, 2014 wow!!
102hrs

114hrs

Actually, Dr. Masters, I believe that Vongfong is the sixth supertyphoon. Previously are 155 mph storms Neoguri and Rammasun, 160 mph storms Halong and Genevieve, and 150 mph storm Phanfone.
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:



It must be pretty good for everyday forecasting (short term).
Local news Chief Meteorologists told me his favorite model is the NAM.
He also tries very hard to be accurate with his forecasts.

I asked him about long term models, and he said he doesn't trust anything beyond 3-5 days.


It has better resolution than the globals, and the WRF can be run with several physics schemes and for a specific area. But is not considered a good model for the tropics, and as a mesoscale model, it isn't planetary, it has a specific area, and weather outside that area is providedby the Hour 6 forecast of the previous GFS.

Inside 36 hours, it (and the even higher resolution (4km) SPC WRF) are the superior models for severe weather forecasting.
52. vis0
Quoting 45. nrtiwlnvragn:

20141007 | 1432 | W-PAC | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 17.5 | -133.7 | 898 | 140 | 19W | VONGFONG | 1 | EM


Link
Can you PAH-LEEESE (:-p )not post these numbers near the end of a pg i thought it was pgs indicator and 23 TS formed near the Caribb. as eyes went to 898 i thought 898 pgs were created. Of course that will only happen when Grothar shares his beauty till 69 tips...
Quoting 50. Stormlover16:

Actually, Dr. Masters, I believe that Vongfong is the sixth supertyphoon. Previously are 155 mph storms Neoguri and Rammasun, 160 mph storms Halong and Genevieve, and 150 mph storm Phanfone.


Was Genevieve over 150 mph when it crossed basins?

I always thought super typhoon was like our major hurricane but at the cat-4 threshold (115 kt) and not cat-3 (97). Learned something new from the blog today as usual. Thanks doc.
Quoting 39. Grothar:




Not identical, but similar to the GFS. FIM has a different model scheme, but uses initialization based on the GFS initialization, and uses the identical physics package. Not spectral and different resolution (30 km) so not identical to the GFS, but will usually be similar.

Quoting 38. weatherbro:

It appears an anomalous trough will set up sometime next week over the East perhaps giving Florida a more sustained Autumn blast!


East coast troughs in mid October are common and not anomalous. That said, at least the GFS is not setting one up.

A trough stuck in the east the entire month is anomalous. Think October (November, December, January) 1976-77.

In 1979 a deep anomalous trough did set up in the east the first and second week of October. One consequence was the DC metro area's earliest accumulating snow of record. An inch even in the urban core on Oct 10.

There was a lot of talk about this being the pattern of the winter.

It turned out to be the pattern of the week.
156hrs

the CMC puts whatever it is under cuba,same place as the canadian at roughly 180 hours....
Quoting 54. EdMahmoud:



Not identical, but similar to the GFS. FIM has a different model scheme, but uses initialization based on the GFS initialization, and uses the identical physics package. Not spectral and different resolution (30 km) so not identical to the GFS, but will usually be similar.


Quoting 54. EdMahmoud:



Not identical, but similar to the GFS. FIM has a different model scheme, but uses initialization based on the GFS initialization, and uses the identical physics package. Not spectral and different resolution (30 km) so not identical to the GFS, but will usually be similar.





That is a reasonable solution if the SW Caribbean low doesn't escape into the East Pac. East Pac versus Atlantic will be the question, but that looks like a very reasonable solution if the Atlantic 'wins'.



Don't ask me how I did that double reply in one post.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
yES, against all odds NHC,... nothing, nada, niente...
186hrs GFS


Quoting 58. EdMahmoud:




That is a reasonable solution if the SW Caribbean low doesn't escape into the East Pac. East Pac versus Atlantic will be the question, but that looks like a very reasonable solution if the Atlantic 'wins'.



Don't ask me how I did that double reply in one post.

I'd be more worried about replying to yourself. Jus' sayin'....

Quoting 61. EdwardinAlaska:



I'd be more worried about replying to yourself. Jus' sayin'....

Very good point.
GFS is just busted right now. GFS has trough in the East while the Euro has it in the midwest. This is a classic case where the GFS is having issues trying to figure out how to handle the recurve of this Typhoon near Japan.

GFS


EURO
Not moving much on the 12Z GFS
276hrs

12Z GFS looks more like the 00Z CMC
Quoting 33. Grothar:

Either way, as the old saying goes, "Whether the rock hits the glass or the glass hits the rock; it is still bad for the glass. Japan has certainly see its share of disasters the past few years. They need a break.




i have never heard that saying before...it must be old. when did we invent glass? :)
67. vis0

        *




*please see ePac version if zero develops...
(my real predicts i posted ~8 days ago on my blog as to activities rising for a 2 wk period beginning today wed...but that's using my crazy science)
They made glass in early Egypt so a very long time.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i have never heard that saying before...it must be old. when did we invent glass? :)

Quoting 65. SFLWeatherman:

12Z GFS looks more like the 00Z CMC



12Z GFS is having the same issue it appears. I think this model has just fallen off big time. The pattern the GFS has just doesn't make sense at all across the US. Should be a deep trough in the mid west given the recurve of this Typhoon. Going to be interesting to see if the Euro maintains the mid west trough.
Quoting 65. SFLWeatherman:

12Z GFS looks more like the 00Z CMC



Looking active across S FL today.

99B:



Should become Tropical Storm Hudhud later today.
Quoting 53. win1gamegiantsplease:



Was Genevieve over 150 mph when it crossed basins?

I always thought super typhoon was like our major hurricane but at the cat-4 threshold (115 kt) and not cat-3 (97). Learned something new from the blog today as usual. Thanks doc.

Genevieve was upgraded to 150 mph in her first wpac advisory. She went on to reach 160 mph, though the true wind speed was likely higher.
Ignore- accidental comment
Quoting 66. WaterWitch11:


i have never heard that saying before...it must be old. when did we invent glass? :)


Sometime after Grothar witnessed rock formation.
Quoting 64. SFLWeatherman:

Not moving much on the 12Z GFS
276hrs




The GFS model reminds me of certain "forecasters" on this blog. I believe that if a system develops, it'll be just as Dr Masters stated, in the epac. It is an interesting area of convection in the sw carib along with a surface low, but....





I believe it'll drift along the monsoon trough into the Pacific where it'll have a much better chance at development. It was fun watching the GFS model go along with our hopes, but hopes they'll likely be. Reality is the epac is where it's at this year. I see it unlikely that we end up with two separate entities though, ie., Ingrid and Manuel.
Fall like air went bye bye. Here 2 days then gone till early November probably.

Could this typhoon become another Hainan, Grace, or Tip?
Quoting 77. weatherbro:

Could this typhoon become another Hainan, Grace, or Tip?
Possible I suppose, but highly doubtful. It will run out of warm water as it moves north and wind shear is going to pick up.
79. Ed22
That area of disturbed weather over the south western caribbean bears watching this weekend into early next week, interesting to see what it becomes over the c


Montpellier, France, Floods for Second Time in Nine Days; Soccer Stadium Swamped

By Nick Wiltgen
Published: October 7, 2014

The second flash flood in nine days struck the southern French city of Montpellier on Monday night, swamping a major soccer stadium with 10 feet of water and leaving cars dangling in trees or on top of other cars.

(PHOTOS: Second Flash Flood Smashes the South of France)

The flash floods resulted from repeated thunderstorm activity moving over areas just north of the city. According to France’s national weather agency, Meteo-France, the storms dumped 262 millimeters (10.32 inches) of rain on the Prades-le-Lez observation site, breaking the all-time rainfall record since the site was established in 1979. Of that amount, 95 millimeters (3.74 inches) fell in just one hour.


Link
Category 5 (equivalent) cyclones are a sight to behold.

Quoting 66. WaterWitch11:



i have never heard that saying before...it must be old. when did we invent glass? :)


I stole it from "Don Quixote", although I changed it a bit.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has developed over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

lets dance!! we have the yellow x now!!
(MORE: Montpellier's Sept. 29 Flood)

Weather Underground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, said that event produced the heaviest two-hour rainfall amount ever recorded in France.

A number of remarkable flash floods have struck North America, Europe and Asia over the past few months:

- The remnants of Hurricane Odile unleashed up to 20 inches of rain in the southwestern U.S. the week of Sept. 15-22; numerous individual flash floods occurred in cities such as El Paso and Austin, Texas, and Carlsbad, New Mexico.

- Hundreds died in Pakistan and India during monsoon-related floods in early September.

- Flash floods killed two people in Tucson and destroyed a stretch of Interstate 15 outside Las Vegas Sept. 8.

- A series of landslides struck Hiroshima, Japan, on Aug. 20, after 8 inches of rain fell in 3 hours. It took rescuers a full month to find all the victims; 74 people died and dozens more were injured.

- Flash floods swamped the Phoenix area Aug. 19, closing a stretch of Interstate 17.

- At least 180 died in Nepal and northern India from flooding and mudslides in August.

- Flooding closed five freeways in and around Detroit, flooding thousands of homes and causing at least $1 billion in damage Aug. 11.

- Four people died in a sudden and highly localized flash flood in the mountains of northern Italy on Aug. 2.
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Category 5 (equivalent) cyclones are a sight to behold.





Annular, TA?????

Quoting 14. Andrebrooks:

If only that was in the Atlantic.


Why would you wish for that. If this made landfall in the Atlantic it would be extremely destructive.


img src="TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has developed over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.">
Quoting 80. ColoradoBob1:



Montpellier, France, Floods for Second Time in Nine Days; Soccer Stadium Swamped

By Nick Wiltgen
Published: October 7, 2014

The second flash flood in nine days struck the southern French city of Montpellier on Monday night, swamping a major soccer stadium with 10 feet of water and leaving cars dangling in trees or on top of other cars.

(PHOTOS: Second Flash Flood Smashes the South of France)

The flash floods resulted from repeated thunderstorm activity moving over areas just north of the city. According to France’s national weather agency, Meteo-France, the storms dumped 262 millimeters (10.32 inches) of rain on the Prades-le-Lez observation site, breaking the all-time rainfall record since the site was established in 1979. Of that amount, 95 millimeters (3.74 inches) fell in just one hour.


Link



The French wine regions can't catch a break this year. This will devastate Languedoc-Rousillon harvests.
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 5 (equivalent) cyclones are a sight to behold.



Absolutely monstrous. And beautiful.


here we go!
Nhc gives 20 percent to sw Carib in 5 days
Quoting 69. StormTrackerScott:



12Z GFS is having the same issue it appears. I think this model has just fallen off big time. The pattern the GFS has just doesn't make sense at all across the US. Should be a deep trough in the mid west given the recurve of this Typhoon. Going to be interesting to see if the Euro maintains the mid west trough.


Weather is not always "If A then B" Scott.
Quoting 92. hurricanes2018:



here we go!


BIG DOOM!!!!
PAGASA advisory on Vongfong

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON OMPONG
11:00 PM PhST October 7 2014
================================================= =============

Typhoon OMPONG has rapidly intensified as it continues to move westward over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ompong [VONGFONG] (943 hPa) located at 17.5N 133.7E or 1,270 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

"OMPONG" is too far to affect any part of the country. However, it is expected to enhance the northeasterly winds which will result to rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Thank you Dr. Masters
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2014
17:30 PM IST October 7 2014
===============================
Cyclone Alert for Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Pre-cyclone Watch for north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts


At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over north Andaman Sea moved west northwestwards during past six hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered over north Andaman Sea & neighborhood near 12.0N 94.0E, about 130 km east southeast of Long Island. It would further move west northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system would continue to move west northwestwards for some more time and then northwestwards towards northern Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast during subsequent 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. The associated intense to very intense convection lies over Andaman sea, bay islands and over bay between 7.5N to 16.0N and east of 88.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hrs. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa.

Scatterometry data indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 30 knots. Wind speed is relatively higher in eastern sector. Buoy located near 10.5N and 93.9E reports mean sea level pressure of 1001.4 hPa and surface wind of southwesterly 21 knots. Port Blair (43333) reported surface wind of 320/08 knots and mean sea level pressure of 1003 hPa. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 30-32C and ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-20 knots (low to moderate). Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest west northwestward to northwestward movement of the system and intensification during next five days.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 12.6N 93.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.5N 91.5E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.0N 89.0E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 87.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
140 knots dvorak intensity from JMA

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
0:00 AM JST October 8 2014
===================================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (905 hPa) located at 17.5N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
270 NM from the center from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 18.6N 131.2E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
"East coast troughs in mid October are common and not anomalous".

I mean in the scientific sense. Not the common vernacular meaning of unprecedented. By that definition, we'd need a time machine to measure every single trough since the Americas were first placed in their present position.

"That said, at least the GFS is not setting one up".

It looks like even the Geophysical Forecasting System Model(GFS) is slowly trending towards my idea since 0600 Zoolon Time(06z)
101. JRRP
Quoting 101. JRRP:


The T wave north of PR?
Quoting 94. boltdwright:



Weather is not always "If A then B" Scott.


What's the phrase post hoc ergo propter hoc? My Latin sucks almost as bad as my English lol. I believe I used that in an English class a while ago writing about the gateway drug effect or whatever the Latin phrase is.

And to keep this on topic why does the Joint Typhoon Warning Center use 10-min sustained winds instead of the NHC 1-minute?
Quoting 95. tampabaymatt:



BIG DOOM!!!!
Especially, and probably only, for eastern Nicaragua, probably the poorest region economically in Central America.
That is impressive! Loving it! Can't get em in the Atlantic, but I'll take.




Incredibly symmetrical.
Quoting 95. tampabaymatt:



BIG DOOM!!!!
Yes expect a cat 5 from this!
107. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
The T wave north of PR?

Yeah
Quoting 93. sporteguy03:

Nhc gives 20 percent to sw Carib in 5 days


But notice what they say about movement - West. They are still leaning towards a Pacific system.
Large area of heavy rain out in the GOM. Storms have been trying to build into the area all day.
Thunder off in the distance here in Fort Myers, but so far no rain yet today.

Well NHC has it up now thank goodness for that

Now soon see it upped to 20% and whatever then we get Invest

Quoting 86. Grothar:




Annular, TA?????




The core looks annular but it does have a lot of outflow on the east that doesn't make it look quite symmetrical as a whole similar to Haiyan. Also reminds me a little of Rita at her peak although she was more lopsided than the typhoons.


Quoting 86. Grothar:




Annular, TA?????




yur funnee
But notice what they say about movement - West. They are still leaning towards a Pacific system.


hey luv....how's that severe weather and rain treating you today?
Quoting 108. luvtogolf:



But notice what they say about movement - West. They are still leaning towards a Pacific system.

I do not read into it that much.
Quoting 83. Grothar:



I stole it from "Don Quixote", although I changed it a bit.


Last weekend I had to create a narrative for that. We had to put Don in a 21st century world and he misunderstood it. It was a pain in the neck for sure. xD
Link

my new blog!!
Quoting 86. Grothar:




Annular, TA?????



No, there's two prominent bands (one extending to the northwest, the other to the southeast).
Quoting 113. ricderr:

But notice what they say about movement - West. They are still leaning towards a Pacific system.


hey luv....how's that severe weather and rain treating you today?


Been unreal. After two beautiful days we've had nothing but flooding rains. Probably won't be back on the course for a week until it stops raining and then the courses dry out:)
7.5/155kts!!!

TPPN10 PGTW 071740

A. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 07/1732Z

C. 17.6N

D. 133.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 17NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. PT YIELDS A 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1254Z 17.4N 134.1E MMHS
07/1616Z 17.5N 133.4E GPMI


UEHARA
Quoting 105. GatorWX:

That is impressive! Loving it! Can't get em in the Atlantic, but I'll take.




Incredibly symmetrical.


CAT 5's in the West Pac. are better anyways, because they are usually less of a land threat
Quoting 86. Grothar:




Annular, TA?????




On the loop you can see bands rotating counterclockwise, or feeding into the storm. On a still image, what appears to be bands on an annular hurricane are actually outflow channels, but in this case, what appears to be bands are actually bands.
It looks like shear is taking its toll on the Caribbean.



I know this is off subject but SAR: Know look you have been here a long time, and you put up a lot of stuff a lot of us read. Don't let the bull hockey make you go into lurking, I didn't know tell just know what you had posted, I've been in the hospital for 18 days with my lungs. But I for one want you to know I like coming on here reading things you have to say. Don't let the punks run you off.... I hope your lurking so you see this... Come Back.....

Sheri from ALABAMA ROLL TIDE.

ON SUBJECT: Does anyone think the low might do anything down in the Caribbean? Or is the season over?
124. JRRP
GFS has ridge across the mid west at day 8 where the Euro has a strong trough across the mid west. This is a huge pattern difference between 2 global models. Incredible to this much of a difference.
Hey gang. For a change here a video of a nice little hail shower in Fasano/Southeastern Italy this afternoon ;-)

Quoting 115. Articuno:



Last weekend I had to create a narrative for that. We had to put Don in a 21st century world and he misunderstood it. It was a pain in the neck for sure. xD


That's OK, Arti. Most people who actually live in the 21st century don't understand it either. Just like the "Windmills of our minds".
Quoting 121. EdMahmoud:



On the loop you can see bands rotating counterclockwise, or feeding into the storm. On a still image, what appears to be bands on an annular hurricane are actually outflow channels, but in this case, what appears to be bands are actually bands.


OK. Semi-annular? :)

129. JRRP

Looking pretty good right now, too bad this isn't for the Atlantic. :) ;)
Quoting Andrebrooks:

Looking pretty good right now, too bad this isn't for the Atlantic. :) ;)
Because look at this.
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America to the far
eastern Pacific during the next few days. Some gradual development
of this system is possible southwest of the coast of Central
America later this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
:( ;)
Well the. Hurricane Season for the Atlantic is over, who is ready for the Winter, I am. :) ;)
Quoting 128. Grothar:



OK. Semi-annular? :)




Maybe. IIRC, annular storms are more likely when SSTs, though warm enough for TCs, aren't too warm. I should probably Wiki it.

150kts at 18z Best Track.

19W VONGFONG 141007 1800 17.6N 133.2E WPAC 150 911
Good afternoon

The SW Caribbean may have a chance to develop after all, assuming the low does not drift any farther West for the time being. High pressure setting up overhead and vort max deepening. The GFS has performed poorly this season but should be given credit for picking up on this many days in advance, even if it does not pan out as depicted in the runs over the past week.

Quoting 135. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

The SW Caribbean may have a chance to develop after all, assuming the low does not drift any farther West for the time being. High pressure setting up overhead and vort max deepening. The GFS has performed poorly this season but should be given credit for picking up on this many days in advance, even if it does not pan out as depicted in the runs over the past week.




Performed poorly is putting it too nicely.
Quoting 132. Andrebrooks:

Well the. Hurricane Season for the Atlantic is over, who is ready for the Winter, I am. :) ;)

Captain Obvious says wait until Nov 30th though.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Performed poorly is putting it too nicely.
How about the error of it was very high, how's that.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
3:00 AM JST October 8 2014
===================================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (900 hPa) located at 17.7N 133.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 18.7N 131.0E - 115 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS 20.3N 130.9E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS 23.6N 131.9E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting sporteguy03:

Captain Obvious says wait until Nov 30th though.
Well this might be our last chance, and according to the NHC, the chances are not high right now. :(
Not annular.

Quoting 132. Andrebrooks:

Well the. Hurricane Season for the Atlantic is over, who is ready for the Winter, I am. :) ;)


GFS ensembles look split on the basin, and by day 10 are truly spaghetti, so the GFS is apparently sensitive to small changes in initial conditions, but several ensemble members like the Atlantic system ENE of Puerto Rico. The Atlantic system is on the wrong side of the TUTT, but should move closer to it, which will lessen shear, and then get on the other side of it, where shear near the TUTT is low and also conducive to inducing a small anticyclone aloft.

Euro should be out now...
Quoting EdMahmoud:


GFS ensembles look split on the basin, and by day 10 are truly spaghetti, so the GFS is apparently sensitive to small changes in initial conditions, but several ensemble members like the Atlantic system ENE of Puerto Rico. The Atlantic system is on the wrong side of the TUTT, but should move closer to it, which will lessen shear, and then get on the other side of it, where shear near the TUTT is low and also conducive to inducing a small anticyclone aloft.

Euro should be out now...
Well according to the NHC, the low is suppose to go to the Pacific, that is why I'm saying bye bye to the Hurricane Season,none of the models show no more development and the conditions don't seem ripe for it.
Quoting Drakoen:
Not annular.

Who come.
Quoting 142. EdMahmoud:



GFS ensembles look split on the basin, and by day 10 are truly spaghetti, so the GFS is apparently sensitive to small changes in initial conditions, but several ensemble members like the Atlantic system ENE of Puerto Rico. The Atlantic system is on the wrong side of the TUTT, but should move closer to it, which will lessen shear, and then get on the other side of it, where shear near the TUTT is low and also conducive to inducing a small anticyclone aloft.

Euro should be out now...




Euro not bullish on Atlantic blob, but it isn't bearish either, and does have a weak closed low in 96 hours that is stil closed but distorted at Hour 120. I think between the SW Caribbean system and the Atlantic blob, glass half full on a Fay in October.
850MB VORT - Consolidating better as compared to this AM:



500MB VORT:

The Atlantic storm is slowly moving minding it's own business with little attention XD, it may surprise.
Quoting 143. Andrebrooks:

Well according to the NHC, the low is suppose to go to the Pacific, that is why I'm saying bye bye to the NHC, none of the models show no more development and the conditions don't seem ripe for it.


Surface map showing the low still there 72 hours out with a different low in the Epac along the Monsoon trough

Quoting 123. catastropheadjuster:

I know this is off subject but SAR: Know look you have been here a long time, and you put up a lot of stuff a lot of us read. Don't let the bull hockey make you go into lurking, I didn't know tell just know what you had posted, I've been in the hospital for 18 days with my lungs. But I for one want you to know I like coming on here reading things you have to say. Don't let the punks run you off.... I hope your lurking so you see this... Come Back.....

Sheri from ALABAMA ROLL TIDE.

ON SUBJECT: Does anyone think the low might do anything down in the Caribbean? Or is the season over?


I second this. I've probably learned more from sar in a year having an account than anyone else on here (not that others haven't contributed to my newfound knowledge).

Also the NHC expects the low to move I to Central America. Whether it gets pulled north as the GFS is saying or it moves into the Pacific (maybe the euro has it?) is early to hang my hat on at least.
Shear is falling in the W Caribbean (SW) as an anticyclone continues to develop and expand

Quoting kmanislander:


Surface map showing the low still there 72 hours out with a different low in the Epac along the Monsoon trough

But why would the NHC say that, it sounded like we won't have anything at all in the Atlantic.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Shear is falling in the W Caribbean (SW) as an anticyclone continues to develop and expand

I am just so confused today by the NHC.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR FIRST TWO DAYS THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MWW3/NWPS BLEND
USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TWO DAYS THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE FEATURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET BRING THE FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
LOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE.
Quoting 147. Climate175:

The Atlantic storm is slowly moving minding it's own business with little attention XD, it may surprise.
Everyone is concerned with the Caribbean.We may have to look cor Fay more north.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR FIRST TWO DAYS THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MWW3/NWPS BLEND
USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TWO DAYS THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE FEATURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET BRING THE FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
LOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE.
You see what I mean, confused.
Quoting 151. Andrebrooks:

But why would the NHC say that, it sounded like we won't have anything at all in the Atlantic.


Not sure. We see this all the time where the NHC takes a view on its own but a collaborative map like the one I posted is different.
Quoting 151. Andrebrooks:

But why would the NHC say that, it sounded like we won't have anything at all in the Atlantic.
Basically it is really the first mention of the disturbance and the key word I see is EXPECTED. Marine discussion says forecast confidence is not high with respect to this feature.

Typhoon VongFong


If anything develops in the Caribbean over the next 10 days... it's going to develop in the latter half of that period. Just relax, enjoy your life and don't freak out over something that is still at least 5 days from developing into something.
Quoting 151. Andrebrooks:

But why would the NHC say that, it sounded like we won't have anything at all in the Atlantic.


The NHC stated The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days. That thinking is inline with the 72 hour surface map kman posted.
Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

Everyone is concerned with the Caribbean.We may have to look cor Fay more north.
Yeah.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Basically it is really the first mention of the disturbance and the key word I see is EXPECTED. Marine discussion says forecast confidence is not high with respect to this feature.
But what I want one more storm and to come to the gulf coast as just maybe at 1 or 2 cat.
Not to take away from the tropics or anything... but Oklahoma seriously...

They already get tornadoes quite often. They can get some nasty snow storms/ ice storms in the Winter. Why not add earthquakes to that resume. I swear, I hear more about earthquakes in Oklahoma rather than California these days. :p Such a diverse state.

XD Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled tropics talk.

Quoting 143. Andrebrooks:

Well according to the NHC, the low is suppose to go to the Pacific, that is why I'm saying bye bye to the Hurricane Season,none of the models show no more development and the conditions don't seem ripe for it.

The NHC Never said it was going to the EPAC all Forecaster Terry posted was : The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land.
Leave it up to your own interpretation.
Quoting kmanislander:


Not sure. We see this all the time where the NHC takes a view on its own but a collaborative map like the one I posted is different.


It's the first NHC a has mentioned this I think it will change quite a bit before it does what it actually gonna do if you get what I'm getting at
;)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located less than a hundred miles west of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America to the far
eastern Pacific during the next few days. Some gradual development
of this system is possible southwest of the coast of Central
America later this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 164. Doppler22:

Not to take away from the tropics or anything... but Oklahoma seriously...

They already get tornadoes quite often. They can get some nasty snow storms/ ice storms in the Winter. Why not add earthquakes to that resume. I swear, I hear more about earthquakes in Oklahoma rather than California these days. :p Such a diverse state.

XD Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled tropics talk.


Hey Doppler, GFS showed something interesting for your area, a bit far out, destined to change but..
There's nothing to worry about in the Caribbean right now. A whole lot of showers and thunderstorms, so it's worth keeping an eye on, but there's no organization. Chances are we'll either see nothing come of it or a weak East Pac storm in several days. Odds of Atlantic development remain low.



If you really want to see a storm, go to the West Pacific. It won't disappoint.

Quoting Doppler22:
Not to take away from the tropics or anything... but Oklahoma seriously...

They already get tornadoes quite often. They can get some nasty snow storms/ ice storms in the Winter. Why not add earthquakes to that resume. I swear, I hear more about earthquakes in Oklahoma rather than California these days. :p Such a diverse state.

XD Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled tropics talk.



I lived in central Oklahoma (graduated from Moore High School) back in my late teens and early 20s.
Oklahoma's winter weather can be very frustrating for snow lovers. It can be raining outside, when it's 23 degrees.
Yes, it's freezing rain causing a big mess, but it's still liquid precipitation. Usually the cold layer of air is very shallow so they get a lot of freezing drizzle/freezing rain even when the temps are way below freezing.

First year we lived in Oklahoma, we had a blizzard with single digit temps, 40 mph winds, and heavy snow. We lived out in the country with oil rigs and wheat fields around us (nothing to block the wind). The snow drifts were at least 3-4 feet. We couldn't leave the house for days (waiting for a snow plow truck) and we didn't have any electricity. The dog's water bowl inside the house would freeze up solid. That's how cold it got in the house.

We were told that winters were mild there before we moved there.



Quoting 170. Sfloridacat5:



I lived in central Oklahoma (graduated from Moore High School) back in my late teens and early 20s.
Oklahoma's winter weather can be very frustrating for snow lovers. It can be raining outside, when it's 23 degrees.
Yes, it's freezing rain causing a big mess, but still liquid precipitation. Usually the cold layer of air is very shallow so they get a lot of freezing drizzle/freezing rain even when the temps are way below freezing.

First year we lived in Oklahoma, we had a blizzard with single digit temps, 40 mph winds, and heavy snow. We lived out in the country with oil rigs and wheat fields around us (nothing to block the wind). The snow drifts were at least 3-4 feet. We couldn't leave the house for days (waiting for a snow plow truck) and we didn't have any electricity. The dog's water bowl inside the house would freeze up solid. That's how cold it got in the house.

We were told that winters were mild there before we moved there.





They didn't have nearly as many earthquakes back then did they? And haha what a "mild" Winter you were welcomed to.

Quoting 168. Climate175:

Hey Doppler, GFS showed something interesting for your area, a bit far out, destined to change but..

For my area? Wouldn't that mean basically the same for you and Wash too? We usually have very similar conditions...
Vongfong reminds me Rick in the coast of Mexico in 2009.
NAM shows the Atl system to be west of the Bahamas on Sat.
Hey gang,now at 155kts WOW!!

19W VONGFONG 141007 1800 17.6N 133.2E WPAC 155 907
Quoting 171. Doppler22:


They didn't have nearly as many earthquakes back then did they? And haha what a "mild" Winter you were welcomed to.


For my area? Wouldn't that mean basically the same for you and Wash too? We usually have very similar conditions...
Yea but take a look, far and likely bogus but..
12z update

Quoting 175. Climate175:

Yea but take a look, far and likely bogus but.

Hmm.... still in the rain. And yeah, its far out. But hey, I ainn't even mad. I think last year the first snowfall I had was a few days before Thanksgiving. So I can wait a little bit longer. :p
Quoting 158. Patrap:


Typhoon VongFong





Blue eye
Baby's got, blue eye
Like a deep blue sea
On a blue, blue day

Blue eye
Baby's got, blue eye
When the mornin' comes
I'll be far away ...


Yeah, everyone should be far away from this blue eye beauty ... Amazing typhoon, once again!
The strongest tropical cyclone to form since Haiyan, 155 knot Vongfong.

I'm not in Oklahoma, but I have consumed beer in Norman and Tulsa, and about the earthquakes, the magnitude 2s and 3s aren't that big a deal.

I was rolled out of bed once by an earthquake in Bakersfield, CA. I was not really awake, aware the apartment was moving and creaking, and when it ended, I got back into bed.

1992. Joshua Tree quake, saw it on TV the next morning.

Obviously, the 'Big One' for Oklahoma will probably actually be centered near the Reelfoot Fault Complex (New Madrid). That one could toppled chimneys in NE Texas.

Note Houston would be unscathed.


The Plumes After the Storm
NASA Earth Observatory, Picture of the day, October 7, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone barreled into southern Japan at about 8 a.m. local time on October 6, 2014 (11 p.m. Universal Time on October 5). The category 1 storm made landfall in Shizuoka Prefecture with maximum sustained winds of about 130 kilometers (80 miles) per hour.
Phanfone dumped 48 centimeters (19 inches) of rain in the mountainous region of Shizuoka Prefecture. At one point during the storm, rain fell in Shizuoka—the capital city of the prefecture—at a record-rate of 8.7 centimeters (3.4 inches) per hour. The 667,000 people living in the prefecture were urged to evacuate to safer ground.
The intense rain and resulting runoff led to sediment plumes in Suruga Bay, visible in the natural-color image (top) acquired October 6, 2014, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Such plumes were not apparent on September 29 (bottom image). ....

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 177. Doppler22:


Hmm.... still in the rain. And yeah, its far out. But hey, I ainn't even mad. I think last year the first snowfall I had was a few days before Thanksgiving. So I can wait a little bit longer. :p
I do expect some snow/flurries in mid-late November.
Quoting 180. CybrTeddy:

The strongest tropical cyclone to form since Haiyan, 155 knot Vongfong.




very nice looking storm as all strong hurricanes tend to be .. notice how perfectly round the eye is ..

@tornadotrackers

Hmm... Maysville better be in their shelters
Quoting Doppler22:

They didn't have nearly as many earthquakes back then did they? And haha what a "mild" Winter you were welcomed to.


For my area? Wouldn't that mean basically the same for you and Wash too? We usually have very similar conditions...


Don't remember any earthquakes back then. But of course, tornadoes were the main focus.

Some of the thunderstorms I experienced were unreal. The huge hail that destroys practically everything to 100+mph straight winds.
I remember one evening standing on the back patio watching a rope tornado doing a dance about a mile to the south. Those don't really scare you. It's the tornadoes you don't see that are hiding behind the core that scare the crap out of you. You're just praying it doesn't go right over your house.

power out in Maysville, powerlines snapped into
@thetack05


NASA adds up Japan’s soaking rains from Typhoon Phanfone


Typhoon Phanfone packed heavy rainfall as it brushed over Japan and NASA’s TRMM satellite identified where the rain fell. That data was used to make a map of rainfall totals.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite has the ability to calculate rainfall rates within storms as it orbits around the Earth’s tropics from space. TRMM data can also be used to create rainfall maps that show how much rain has fallen over given areas.

Read more at: Link

I love the the images this bird generates , their graphics packages are amazing.
Hurricane.
Still no rain today at my location in Fort Myers. Lots of virga in many areas.

You need to get into the heavier precipitation before it starts to actually reach the ground.


CWG talks about the Florida hurricane drought.

"Florida is long overdue for a destructive hurricane and has never had so many people and so much property in the way. This dangerous state of affairs is compounded by the potential for complacency and lack of recent experience. When hurricanes don’t strike over such a long period of time, some people may be lulled into a false sense of security and/or forget how horrible hurricanes can be" .
Link
Gas pumps and trees blocking roads in Maysville, KY.
Brace yourselves Japan.
Quoting 184. whitewabit:



very nice looking storm as all strong hurricanes tend to be .. notice how perfectly round the eye is ..


Notice how many we are getting to see ? The perfect doughnut . May be pretty on a web page but there's hell to pay under one of these perfect doughnuts. I came across a coral bleaching story from Hawaii , today the water temps there are pretty amazing ,



Hawaii waters around this time of the year are usually around 72-78 degrees, but UH scientist said temperature gauges in the Lanikai area have hit 86 degrees.

The Nature Conservancy said its members have reported water temperatures of 90.


Read more: Link
JTWC 2100z warning. Peak is now at 165kts but will begin to weaken as it gains latitude.

Quoting 193. Doppler22:

Gas pumps and trees blocking roads in Maysville, KY.


The war on coal continues.
Quoting 197. ColoradoBob1:



The war on coal continues.

... Not sure what you are talking about. But I am talking about possible tornado damage.


@Local12: We're getting a number of reports of serious damage in #Maysville, KY.
Quoting 170. Sfloridacat5:



I lived in central Oklahoma (graduated from Moore High School) back in my late teens and early 20s.
Oklahoma's winter weather can be very frustrating for snow lovers. It can be raining outside, when it's 23 degrees.
Yes, it's freezing rain causing a big mess, but it's still liquid precipitation. Usually the cold layer of air is very shallow so they get a lot of freezing drizzle/freezing rain even when the temps are way below freezing.

First year we lived in Oklahoma, we had a blizzard with single digit temps, 40 mph winds, and heavy snow. We lived out in the country with oil rigs and wheat fields around us (nothing to block the wind). The snow drifts were at least 3-4 feet. We couldn't leave the house for days (waiting for a snow plow truck) and we didn't have any electricity. The dog's water bowl inside the house would freeze up solid. That's how cold it got in the house.

We were told that winters were mild there before we moved there.






I can at least keep the pipes from freezing with my woodstove which can heat the back half of my house to over 70F when it's below freezing outside. It's the old type that take logs (which must be split) rather than the new
type which burns pellets and requires power to operate the fan and pellet feeder.
Super Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 8, 2014 18 GMT
Location 17.6N 133.2E Movement WNW
Wind 180 MPH

wow!!! 180 mph!
Quoting 137. sporteguy03:


Captain Obvious says wait until Nov 30th though.


At least we have a break. The West Pacific is active year round.
Quoting 193. Doppler22:

Gas pumps and trees blocking roads in Maysville, KY.
tornado? Which county is Maysville in?
Quoting 201. hurricanes2018:

Super Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 8, 2014 18 GMT
Location 17.6N 133.2E Movement WNW
Wind 180 MPH

wow!!! 180 mph!
And just to imagine it was a struggling storm a few days ago.
Peak is now at 165kts but will begin to weaken as it gains latitude.

189.9 mph for all of us who are land based animals.
Really!
Wow, yeah that is ridiculously warm. The tradewinds normally keep the surface waters circulating. Hellish currents between islands (Molokai Express). Wow serious temp anomaly to go along with the anomalies off California. Hawaii may still be at risk of a late season tropical system.

Quoting 195. ColoradoBob1:



Notice how many we are getting to see ? The perfect doughnut . May be pretty on a web page but there's hell to pay under one of these perfect doughnuts. I came across a coral bleaching story from Hawaii , today the water temps there are pretty amazing ,



Hawaii waters around this time of the year are usually around 72-78 degrees, but UH scientist said temperature gauges in the Lanikai area have hit 86 degrees.

The Nature Conservancy said its members have reported water temperatures of 90.


Read more: Link
HAIYAN PART 2? O----------O





wind gust over 200 mph!!!!
Quoting 208. pablosyn:

HAIYAN PART 2? O----------O






It won't hit a fairly unprepared Third World country as a Category 5...
Rainy days ahead.
Got to love this a ZERO percent chance of rain here and thunderstorms developing across the region. NWS really busted this forecast today.

I appreciate the understandable information in this blog. As part of the environmental response team in New Mexico it is very useful to me in preparing for a response. Before Hurricane Dolly n 2008 it was difficult to imagine major flooding and damage from remnants of a hurricane in NM. Now we watch every one!
Super Typhoon Vongfong is an absolute powerhouse, but it still pales in comparison to the likes of Haiyan...


Tokyo is on the same longitude as Maryland and usually storms start to weaken when they get to us unless they're moving at lightening speed.
Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Super Typhoon Vongfong is an absolute powerhouse, but it still pales in comparison to the likes of Haiyan...





Haiyan had more than 200 mph to me.
The strength of the high matters.
Autumn really has set in. With a sideglance to Scotland and the stormy weathermap of Europe: good night folks.


Stonehaven Harbour. Picture: Twitter

Residents evacuated from homes after high waves batter Aberdeenshire seafront
Herald Scotland, Tuesday 7 October 2014





Map for tomorrow.

207. HaoleboySurfEC
8:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2014

Wow, yeah that is ridiculously warm. The tradewinds normally keep the surface waters circulating.

They have had a very warm last few months , that large high blocking California has stopped their trade winds as well . That thing is a monster the whole North Pacific is one big bucket of heat.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Got to love this a ZERO percent chance of rain here and thunderstorms developing across the region. NWS really busted this forecast today.



Hopefully the rain will hit the ground. We've had rain on the radar almost all day, yet none of it is hitting the ground.
We've got a 40% chance of rain today. 30% tomorrow and 0% the rest of the week.

The satellite image above with the classic distinct eye says it all.

As of 3 a.m. Japanese time Wednesday (2 p.m. EDT Tuesday in the U.S.), the eye of Vongfong was about 700 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, moving west at about 10 mph.

Maximum sustained winds had skyrocketed to an estimated 180 mph, the equivalent of a potentially catastrophic , according to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Vongfong became the fifth super typhoon (150 mph max sustained winds or higher) of 2014.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Vongfong has now surpassed Genevieve for the most intense western Pacific typhoon of 2014 by estimated central pressure (900 millibars). On the JMA typhoon intensity scale, Vongfong is the third "violent typhoon" of 2014, following Genevieve and Halong.
barbamz

You do good work, here's yer Atta Boy .
With low vertical wind shear (change in wind speed and/or direction with height), impressive outflow (winds in the upper levels spreading apart from the center, favoring upward motion and thunderstorms) and warm western Pacific water, Vongfong has intensified explosively and has easily surpassed the 157-mph threshold required to reach status. It may yet strengthen a bit more, but for all intents and purposes is near its peak intensity.

Intense tropical cyclones undergo eyewall replacement cycles (ERC), during which the old inner eyewall is replaced by a contracting outer eyewall. During that time, the intensity backs off a bit. The timing of these ERCs cannot be forecasted using present technology.

Similar to what happened with , Vongfong will turn north in the next day or so, as it rounds the western edge of the subtropical steering high mentioned above.

However, in contrast to the scenario with Phanfone, a second, temporary blocking high pressure system aloft may deflect Vongfong slightly to the west Friday through Sunday.

This is a disconcerting possibility, as it could bring the core of Vongfong's strongest winds much closer to the Ryukyu Islands this weekend than otherwise would happen. It should be noted Vongfong is expected to weaken once it begins moving north this week, but should still be a formidable typhoon as it draws close to Japan this weekend into early next week.

That temporary upper-level ridge will eventually be replaced by a dip in the jet stream, or trough, that will finally grab hold of Vongfong and accelerate it toward the east-northeast, similar to what happened with .

It is still too soon to be certain regarding specific impacts to Japan from Vongfong.

However, at the present time it appears Vongfong will end up tracking far enough west and north to at least bring some high winds, heavy rain and storm surge flooding once again to Okinawa, Kyushu, Shikoku, and at least central and eastern Honshu Saturday through Tuesday.
Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:


Hopefully the rain will hit the ground. We've had rain on the radar almost all day, yet none of it is hitting the ground.
We've got a 40% chance of rain today. 30% tomorrow and 0% the rest of the week.



Maybe not in your area but the sky is black in areas looking south of Orlando with lightning seen in the distance.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Summer continues here. Fall says sike!
Lastest NAM.
dang that 190 MPH forecast for Vongfong from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Lanikai is a bit sheltered. The tradewinds are normally onshore and vigorous at Lanikai. The absence of trades would allow the water nearshore to really warm up. Used to lifeguard that beach in the 1990's.

Quoting 219. ColoradoBob1:


207. HaoleboySurfEC
8:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2014

Wow, yeah that is ridiculously warm. The tradewinds normally keep the surface waters circulating.

They have had a very warm last few months , that large high blocking California has stopped their trade winds as well . That thing is a monster the whole North Pacific is one big bucket of heat.
Quoting 224. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe not in your area but the sky is black in areas looking south of Orlando with lightning seen in the distance.


Dude, i want some of that stuff you are smoking. I live in South Orlando, Lake Conway to be exact. I can assure you there has been no lightning whatsoever. In fact, Just checked Spark and the closest lightning strike to my house today has been 468 miles South of Cuba. Oh wait, 3 lightning bolts just popped right off Big Pine Key at 394 miles away
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:41 PM PDT on October 07, 2014
Scattered Clouds
92.3 °F
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 88 °F
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 37 °F

Wind: 2.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
It was 90.4F here, it was supposed to be 85F,
fifth day in a row over 90F. Still no AC usage
on any of the days.
Hmm. Look where the GFS has the storm now. ;)

Quoting 230. emcf30:



Dude, i want some of that stuff you are smoking. I live in South Orlando, Lake Conway to be exact. I can assure you there has been no lightning whatsoever. In fact, Just checked Spark and the closest lightning strike to my house today has been 468 miles South of Cuba. Oh wait, 3 lightning bolts just popped right off Big Pine Key at 394 miles away


Old blog.
Dear Ed Mahmoud:

Will Texas be spared this year, Ed?