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Super Typhoon Parma threatens the Philippines; October hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2009

It's been a terrible week for natural disasters in Asia, with the death toll from two huge earthquakes and Typhoon Ketsana continuing to mount. The bad news got worse today with the emergence of Super Typhoon Parma, now poised strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 4 typhoon with 150 mph winds. Also of concern is Category 3 Typhoon Melor, which has just undergone a period of rapid intensification, and is also approaching super typhoon status. A super typhoon is a storm with 150 mph winds or higher--a strong Category 4. Melor is forecast to pass through the northern Marianas Islands north of Guam and Saipan this weekend, then curve to the north and threaten Japan next week.

Super Typhoon Parma intensified dramatically early this morning, forming a tiny "pinhole" eye (Figure 1) only seen in very intense tropical cyclones. The last Atlantic hurricane to form a pinhole eye was Hurricane Wilma, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Parma's outer spiral bands are already beginning to spread over the eastern positions of the Philippines, and beginning Friday will likely bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the regions hard-hit by Typhoon Ketsana, including the capital of Manila. More seriously, the super typhoon may make landfall along the northeastern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Saturday as a Category 4 or 5 typhoon. The uncertainty in the forecast is very high, as steering currents are expected to weaken on Friday, and the presence of Typhoon Melor to the northeast introduces an additional element of uncertainty. It is quite possible that Parma will stall near or just offshore the northern coast of Luzon Saturday through Sunday as a super typhoon, dumping rainfall in excess of a foot over northern Luzon, as forecast by the ECMWF model. Northern Luzon received 2 - 4 inches of rain from Typhoon Ketsana last week, and an additional 12+ inches of rain falling on soils already saturated from Ketsana's rains would likely cause severe flash flooding and major landslides capable of killing hundreds. Another dismal possibility is offered by the NOGAPS model, which forecasts that Parma will cross directly over Luzon north of Manila, bringing heavy rains in excess of six inches to Manila, where more than 16 inches of rain fell Saturday during Typhoon Ketsana. It is also possible that Parma will miss the Philippines, staying far enough offshore that the Philippines will not suffer a major flooding disaster. However, the odds current favor another major typhoon disaster for the Philippines this weekend.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Parma at 02:25 UTC on 10/01/09. Parma had developed a tiny pinhole eye, and the outer spiral bands were beginning to affect the eastern Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

October hurricane outlook
In the first half of October, Atlantic tropical cyclone activity remains quite high, before a sharp drop occurs around October 15. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the first half of October has given birth to an average of 1.9 named storms, 0.7 hurricanes and 0.4 intense hurricanes. For the entire month of October, these figures are 3.9 named storms, 1.2 hurricanes, and 0.6 intense hurricanes. These numbers are about double the long-term climatological averages for the past 100 years.

The most typical track for October hurricanes is through the Western Caribbean, with recurvature to the north and northwest into the Gulf of Mexico or across Cuba and through the Bahamas. The jet stream becomes more active and moves further south in October, making recurving storms more likely, and eliminating long-track Cape Verdes-type hurricanes from making direct strikes on the U.S. East Coast or Texas. There have only been nine hurricanes that have hit the U.S. East Coast north of Miami in October or later, and only three on the Texas coast. For the U.S., the highest risk areas for an October hurricane strike are between central Louisiana and Southeast Florida. About 71% of the 53 hurricanes that have hit the U.S. after October 1 have struck this region. Here is a breakdown of the number of hurricane strikes by state between 1851 - 2008 occurring October or later:

Texas 3
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 2
Alabama 0
Florida Gulf Coast 25 (7 of these in the Panhandle)
Southeast Florida 3
Georgia 2
South Carolina 3
North Carolina 4
New England 2

There have been no direct strikes by hurricanes on the east coast of Florida north of Miami in October or later. However, the east coast of Florida is still capable of getting damaging hurricane conditions from storms that strike the Gulf Coast of Florida and move eastwards, as Hurricane Wilma of 2005 proved.


Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricanes and tropical storms forming October 1 - 15, 1851 - 2006.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, the last few runs of the 16-day GFS model forecast for wind shear have been predicting a decline in wind shear over the Caribbean after October 12, so there may be a greater chance of tropical storm formation as we head into mid-October. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are certainly warm enough to support a major hurricane anywhere in the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and are more than 1°C above average (Figure 3).


Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature from average for October 1, 2009. SSTs were about 1°C above average over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the very warm anomalies over the East Pacific off the coast of South America, the signature of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Wind shear
Wind shear has been much above average over the tropical Atlantic over the past month, which is typical for an El Niño year, though part of this shear is due to the above-average number of upper-level troughs of low pressure over the Atlantic this hurricane season. El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific have remained essentially unchanged over past few weeks, and are expected to intensify in the coming months, so we can expect a continuation of above-average wind shear over the Atlantic for the remainder of hurricane season. Wunderblogger Weather456 has posted a nice October hurricane outlook that goes into a bit more detail than I've done here for those interested.

The forecast
The last Atlantic hurricane season that was this quiet was the strong El Niño year of 1997. That year, we got two weak 45-mph tropical storms in October to finish out the season. I predict that for this season, we will also finish out the year with two more named storms, with one of these reaching hurricane strength. The most likely land areas such a storm might affect are along the Western Caribbean, Gulf Coast of Florida, and the Bahamas. The most likely time these storms may form is the period October 13 - November 7.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting mikatnight:


Oh heck, everybody's smarter than we are; the dolphins, the mice - join the line. They're probaly the illegal aliens I've been hearing about on Lou Dobbs anyway...
I'm pretty sure Farmers are very aware of Lou Dobbs illegal aliens, they depend on them so that the average U.S. citizens get cheap food on their tables, including Mr.Dobbs..., of course.
Aussie - very sad post and if i had one nickel to spare right now, I would do it. I can send clothes though...where?

On another note, not sure what the deal is but all our dogs are hiding tonight. Hope we're not looking at a shake at some point. Thinking of giving them all a benedryl cocktail.
Quoting jurakantaino:
I'm pretty sure Farmers are very aware of Lou Dobbs illegal aliens, they depend on them so that the average U.S. citizens get cheap food on their tables, including Mr.Dobbs..., of course.


Just a little joke, and I haven't heard Lou in a couple of years. Strictly broadcast tv for us now - HD quality is better than cable and it's freeeeee...
504. xcool



from storm.org
Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Page

173
WFUS54 KSHV 020423
TORSHV
LAC013-069-081-127-020500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0062.091002T0423Z-091002T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1200 PM CDT

* AT 1120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUYNES...OR
23 MILES WEST OF JONESBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ASHLAND...LUCKY...BROWN...SKIDDER...SALINE...READHEIMER...
CHESTNUT...OSHKOSH...FRIENDSHIP...DANVILLE...MILL AND GOLDONNA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Still raining here and more on the way. One of the reasons I'm not asleep. Love listening, watching, smelling the rain...

Last update for the night... it will be very interesting tomorrow.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice
You're johnny on the spot Patrap. Bedtime for me. Good luck with ya'lls efforts...
Quoting Patrap:
Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Page

173
WFUS54 KSHV 020423
TORSHV
LAC013-069-081-127-020500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0062.091002T0423Z-091002T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1200 PM CDT

* AT 1120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUYNES...OR
23 MILES WEST OF JONESBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ASHLAND...LUCKY...BROWN...SKIDDER...SALINE...READHEIMER...
CHESTNUT...OSHKOSH...FRIENDSHIP...DANVILLE...MILL AND GOLDONNA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

ok they put 12 pm lol should be am
mikatnight,sleep well...

I'll have to check the ol NOAA radio batt back-up.

Looks like squall Line will get here near dawn.
512. xcool
Strong Storms






Strong Storms
StaySafe ,!
Quoting xcool:
Strong Storms

look like it headed ur way xcool :0
Quoting xcool:



from storm.org
That looks bogus on fast moving front. The big rain is late this weekend from combination of things including olaf.
515. xcool
btwntx08 yeah very bad .i.m ready.
516. xcool
centex .more rain
Quoting xcool:
centex .more rain
Yes, starting Sat night hopefully. We just hope more west this time. Our water supply missed most of recent rains and still at drought levels.
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 yeah very bad .i.m ready.

yep be storm ready :)
519. xcool
btwntx08 haha.centex that true.i hate when rain here we flood alot.slidell la

olaf looking good
521. xcool
watch next season gogo kaboom in ATL
i know there is a floater but i just want to see more far away
523. xcool
btwntx08 Are U Ready for cold air???!!!!
Quoting centex:
Yes, starting Sat night hopefully. We just hope more west this time. Our water supply missed most of recent rains and still at drought levels.


What part of NM will get some of that rain?
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 Are U Ready for cold air???!!!!

a little bit but still cold air takes a while longer to arrive here and depend how cold it is....brb in abit
526. xcool
btwntx08 kooling
ok back
528. xcool


I know what Centex means about water supply drying up. The Ogallala aquifier is getting lower all the time. The melting glaciers helped fill it and I just looked outside and there weren't anymore glaciers out there melting. Daily, water runs down the street from poorly maintained sprinklers. Our mayor has a giant, green lawn. This is area is classified as desert but most of the people here don't get it. Our portion of the aquaifer is closed - not replenishing.

I do not exaggerate the amount of water wasted here and yet there are no laws to protect the water from excessive residential or commercial use. Corn is raised here and it takes three acre feet of water to raise one acre of corn. And then there are the scores of 700 cow+ dairies. I don't understand how the people running the show don't get it.
530. xcool







Link


new model run!
531. xcool
guess 2009 hurricane season .Not Over Yet;

model show some storm ! imo
Quoting xcool:
guess 2009 hurricane season .Not Over Yet;

model show some storm ! imo

yep
533. xcool
btwntx08 .crazy model
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 .crazy model

haha lol :0 anyway i'm out for the night got college in the morning
535. xcool
btwntx08 take easy ;)
New Tornado watch Box for Louisiana coming out ATM...


Tornado Watch 755

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 753...WW 754...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG NNW-SSE
ORIENTED WEAK FRONT OVER CNTRL AND S CNTRL LA. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
MARK LEADING EDGE OF VERY MOIST LOW LVL AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S F/ EXTENDING EWD FROM SE TX. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WSWLY LLJ AHEAD
OF NE-SW SQLN NOW MOVING SE ACROSS E TX/CNTRL LA MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES WITH STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY GIVEN LOW LCLS...MODERATE
DEEP WNWLY SHEAR....AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM INTERACTIONS WITH SQLN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CORFIDI


540. xcool
here it come!
NEXRAD Radar
Fort Polk La., Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

543. xcool



Quoting TexNowNM:
I know what Centex means about water supply drying up. The Ogallala aquifier is getting lower all the time. The melting glaciers helped fill it and I just looked outside and there weren't anymore glaciers out there melting. Daily, water runs down the street from poorly maintained sprinklers. Our mayor has a giant, green lawn. This is area is classified as desert but most of the people here don't get it. Our portion of the aquaifer is closed - not replenishing.

I do not exaggerate the amount of water wasted here and yet there are no laws to protect the water from excessive residential or commercial use. Corn is raised here and it takes three acre feet of water to raise one acre of corn. And then there are the scores of 700 cow+ dairies. I don't understand how the people running the show don't get it.


Meanwhile here in Ipswich, UK, we've had extremely low rain fall amounts, yet our local reservoir has been fairly stable.
I noticed a brief but definite tornado vortex signature (TVS) on the radar animation from Fort Polk that Pat posted earlier.

This stuff is rapidly heading my way, and will probably reach me by 4:00-4:30.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Aurora-Isabela area

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 15.1°N, 125.3°E or 150 kms north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gusts up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Catanduanes

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela
3.Aurora
4.Quirino
5.Northern Quezon
6.Polilio Islands
7.Camarines Norte
8.Camarines Sur

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Calayan Group of Islands
2.Babuyan Group of Islands
3.Ilocos Norte
4.Ilocos Sur
5.Apayao
6.Abra
7.Kalinga
8.Mt. Province
9.Ifugao
10.Nueva Viscaya
11.Benguet
12.La Union
13.Pangasinan
14.Tarlac
15.Nueva Ecija
16.Zambales
17.Bataan
18.Pampanga
19.Bulacan
20.Laguna
21.Batangas
22.Cavite
23.Rizal
24.Rest of Quezon
25.Marinduque
26.Albay
27.Burias Islands
28.Sorsogon
29.Metro Manila

Visayas Region
1.Northern Samar

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
Heavy rain and strong t-storms moving into my area.

Looks like a bit a of bow echo to the radar returns in this line of storms.
You've been busy lately HGW...
549. jipmg
I think that front over the South may actually make it to southern florida, the speed of that thing is immense, I dont see anything that is blocking it from coming through, what do you guys think
It's moving through NOLA very fast, local met cant keep up with the advisories...
551. IKE
Quoting jipmg:
I think that front over the South may actually make it to southern florida, the speed of that thing is immense, I dont see anything that is blocking it from coming through, what do you guys think


From Tallahassee,FL. morning discussion....

"THE STALLED COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS."
it's rainin buckets full here Ike...

get out your umbrella
Good Morning

Tropical update
554. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
it's rainin buckets full here Ike...

get out your umbrella


I've got the radar up. Entire line is expected to weaken as it moves east into drier air.
555. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


From Tallahassee,FL. morning discussion....

"THE STALLED COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS."


oh wow.. there goes my hopes for a cold front
Good Morning Everyone, Happy Friday!
557. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


oh wow.. there goes my hopes for a cold front


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE
OCCASIONS WHERE I STARTED OFF THE WEEK TELLING YOU THE WEEKEND
LOOKS MESSY AND I END THE WEEK SAYING THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT.

A FEW DAYS AGO...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWED A COLD FRONT
REACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO ABANDON THIS
SCENARIO...HAVING THE FRONT LOSE IDENTITY TO OUR NORTH. NOW ALL
THREE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING NEARLY ALL THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WELL NORTH OF HERE WITH JUST SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONCE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AT ALL WILL HAVE TO COME FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WE ARE LUCKY TO SEE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AT ALL...USUALLY NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCES. THE MAV GUIDANCE
SHOWS 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
HERE AND SHOW 10 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT THUNDER...SO
WILL JUST MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INSTEAD.
rained buckets last night 3am east cen florida leftovers noticed a new yellow box in the atlantic
559. P451
Good Morning from central NJ. 40 degrees at 6am, Orion high over head, Venus bright as could be in the east, perfect morning walk I can tell you.

Meanwhile, three AOIs. Water Vapor imagery complete with that lovely satellite blackout. Bahamas, MDR, a decaying 90L.






Better to be raining buckets then hailing taxis...

It was a nice "cooler" morning today in South Florida. Not nearly as humid and it was 74 out... A nice change. Too bad it looks like the Heat and Humidity are coming back.
Quoting Dakster:
Better to be raining buckets then hailing taxis... em>


Good one Dak...
563. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
Good morning Ike. Friday at last...
566. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:
Good morning Ike. Friday at last...


Yo bud....Twist and Shout Friday.
Starting out a beautiful morning here. Slightly cooler temps (75 now), summer's winding down...
Quoting IKE:


Yo bud....Twist and Shout Friday.


Yeah, I'll be workin' it out til about 5pm (I do it 'cause she loves me - yeah, yeah, yeah)
'Morning folks. Happy Friday. Hope this makes you laugh...

Worst Football Play Ever
570. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, I'll be workin' it out til about 5pm (I do it 'cause she loves me - yeah, yeah, yeah)


LOL...

Maybe it'll cool off for good before too much longer, then you can throw a big log on the fire.
There's a bunch of folks on the other side of the world that aren't doing so well. Reminds me of a song that pleaded for help like no other I can recall. Bangla Desh from the concert for Bangla Desh. (Link is to utube video - I don't know how to post 'em yet, have to get Ike or someone to show me one of these days).
You can substitute Indonesia or Somalia, it's all bad.

It starts out:

"My friend came to me, with sadness in his eyes
He told me that he wanted help
Before his country dies

Although I couldn't feel the pain, I knew I had to try
Now I'm asking all of you
To help us save some lives..."
not sure if the atlantic basin needs it but this blog needs a cyclone
573. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
not sure if the atlantic basin needs it but this blog needs a cyclone


I hear ya. Nothing out there. I think most have given up on the Atlantic in 2009.
North Central FL has had 3 glorious days of clear skies and cool mornings... YES!
AND it is Friday.
The bad news is that the clear skies have put all the radar backscatter on disco ball mode. I'm still rejoicing that the lakes are back up.
575. P451
Quoting mikatnight:


About time. That system has looked interesting for quite some time. I know they want duration but some times when things look that good you start watching right from the start!

Anyone here get the Pensacola paper today?
577. P451
The most interesting thing this AM is over the mainland US.

578. P451
Quoting P451:


About time. That system has looked interesting for quite some time. I know they want duration but some times when things look that good you start watching right from the start!



On second thought, is that yellow circle around the highly sheared mess? And not the healthy looking area behind it? I believe it is!

I'm sorry but this season has been a joke as far as those in charge of invests and the upgrading of systems.

RIDICULOUS!





Mikatnight...

You must live real close to me. I went out for a late jog last night and ended up getting soaked by that rainstorm. Had no idea it was even supposed to rain.
Somewhat ragged satellite appearance on both typhoons this morning...It appears both have peaked in intensity.
581. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone here get the Pensacola paper today?


I see where Don Priest passed away.

He was a good announcer at WCOA in Pensacola. He broadcast the Pensacola Pirates JUCO basketball games on WCOA when I was going to college at Gulf Coast Community College and broadcasting their games on the college FM station.

He worked at WCOA a long-time.
The caribbean could become a bit less on the hostile side in the coming days based on the GFS. Not a fan of long-range forcast but it holds some hope if your looking for some late season action close to home.

look at the 240 thru 336 hr periods.Ideal conditions if they verify.
583. P451
The Australian dust storms by NOAA:

Link

NRL Monterey do not control the criteria for starting an invest area. This is done by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for the rest of the planet. It is their call, and any analysist can start an invest area. The reasoning does not always follow the same criteria, and there really isn't a science to starting a invest area, it is up to the Center.

The operational agencies select systems to be invests for various reasons:

1- has potential for genesis

2-want to view system with a full suite of remote sensing products that can only be found on there TC web page

3-they start a system by running model guidance at the same time to get a feel for what the forecasts are early on and thus better understand the trend on model fields


586. P451
Quoting hurricane23:
NRL Monterey do not control the criteria for starting an invest area. This is done by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for the rest of the planet. It is their call, and any analysist can start an invest area. The reasoning does not always follow the same criteria, and there really isn't a science to starting a invest area, it is up to the Center.

The operational agencies select systems to be invests for various reasons:

1- has potential for genesis

2-want to view system with a full suite of remote sensing products that can only be found on there TC web page

3-they start a system by running model guidance at the same time to get a feel for what the forecasts are early on and thus better understand the trend on model fields




And whoever got the nod to be the final authority this season needs to get the boot from said position.

Simple as that...they have hyped up systems that were trash (Danny - 60mph? I don't think so!) and ignored those that were likely systems (90 or 92 - I keep forgetting which early system) - and right now putting a yellow circle around the ripped apart mess east of the Islands - and not the healthier system further east of it.

Not to mention that 90L yesterday looked like a hurricane (I know it wasnt) at one point but was still just a "50mph invest" area.

Everyone wanted the not-yet-truly sub-tropical system that hit New Jersey to be Grace - but no one talked about that Azores system yesterday which probably WAS Grace.

Oh well it is what it is but it certainly is open for debate as to why they are so ready to declare messy systems as tropical and completely dismiss some very healthy systems as being nothing.

This year should prove to be a case study in future classrooms as to the do's and don'ts of future tropical classification guidelines.
Philippines Declares ‘State of Calamity’ as Typhoon Approaches
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines declared a national “state of calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, where recovery efforts continue six days after Tropical Storm Ketsana devastated Manila and its surroundings, leaving 293 people dead......
Part of our local forecast mentions the system near the Bahamas

MEANWHILE HYBRID LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SE OF THE REGION AND EAST OF THE FRONT. IT NOW
APPEARS ITS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
589. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
Part of our local forecast mentions the system near the Bahamas

MEANWHILE HYBRID LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SE OF THE REGION AND EAST OF THE FRONT. IT NOW
APPEARS ITS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


6Z NAM blows that up into a significant system.
As far as the possible sts of the eastcoast some argue was a sub-tropical cyclone at that time Water vapor imagery showed the system was clearly tangled up in an upper-level low which argues at best for subtropical cyclone status. In addition, the surface data showed significant amounts of cold air of three sides of the low, with dewpoints in the 50's in many areas.the low had become entangled in a northwest-southeast baroclinic zone two or three days earlier, these dew points suggest that it had not freed itself from the zone, and that baroclinic dynamics were also playing a role. This is what you call a frontal hybrid which is something you will not get advisories on from tpc.

Radar presentation was nice though.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
'Morning folks. Happy Friday. Hope this makes you laugh...

Worst Football Play Ever



It did. Watched it yesterday and I was thinking "Why in the he-double L would that. It's still a live ball!"
2009 Ig Nobel prizes


The aim of the awards is to honour achievements that "first make people laugh and then make them think".
Quoting P451:


On second thought, is that yellow circle around the highly sheared mess? And not the healthy looking area behind it? I believe it is!

I'm sorry but this season has been a joke as far as those in charge of invests and the upgrading of systems.

RIDICULOUS!





are you quoting yourself ???
Good Morning Senior Chief !
597. P451
Quoting StormW:
That system that hit New Jersey (Grace?) was in fact subtropical. Period.


And you made an exceptional case for it.

We have discussed it and you know my "95% of the way there but not there enough" position.

Yet I do still wonder about it. It was awfully close.

Now, not to re-hash anything more than one of my several "sticking points" as to why I disagree - but - this actually puts the ball in your court of favor so to speak.

The one point was that it was very cold up here (New Jersey) and that the rain drops did not mirror a tropical type rain but more a nor'eastern type rain (yep, there is a difference!)

One thing I had mentioned was that I was waiting for a "breath" of warm moist air. Well, to be honest, we got that the next morning as the remnant low swirled to our west (around Trenton). It got warm and humid whereas during the actual event the day before it was cold and damp (again, there is absolutely a difference in that feeling).

And in parting, if it was indeed 100% STS then I want it declared. I don't care if it happened one hour before landfall and they didn't want to "create confusion by naming it". If it was then you name it. If it was not then you do not.

I still of course feel it was not - but - it was as close as you can possibly get. It was right there.

Quoting divdog:
are you quoting yourself ???


Yes. What of it? I second guessed my own post and replied to it to suggest as much and why. I don't see the problem. ?

did that space shuted evere make it back to FL??? if so when???
@577...they are expecting TS-force winds with the storm over the central US...

... High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ this
afternoon...
... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight MDT /1 am CDT/
tonight to 9 am MDT /10 am CDT/ Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Rapid City has issued a High Wind
Warning... which is in effect until 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ this
afternoon. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect. A freeze
warning remains in effect from midnight MDT /1 am CDT/ tonight to
9 am MDT /10 am CDT/ Saturday.

Strong northwest winds will continue through this afternoon with
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

Temperatures will drop below freezing after midnight.
Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected through
early Saturday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means 40 mph winds... or gusts over 60 mph...
are expected or occurring.
Quoting StormW:
That system that hit New Jersey (Grace?) was in fact subtropical. Period.


Yep. We watched it.
1286. MiamiHurricanes09 10:35 PM EDT on September 06, 2009

Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Wilmington Radar
QS off Carolina

Yes, that area is being monitored closely, but if anything were to form it will be subtropical or extratropical...Track wise it will just scrape along the US eastern seaboard bringing some rain to the coastal cities.

1344. HIEXPRESS 11:10 PM EDT on September 06, 2009
Yes, it's the front & it's early enough in the season that I don't have to worry about anything that should develop in that area retrograding.
tpc's working hypothesis is that the low was what you would call a frontal hybrid... Enough organized convection to supply energy to the system and for them to sit up and take notice, but too frontal to meet even the most lenient definition of subtropical or tropical cyclone. I'll agree though the system looked better on radar than some systems they previously named. Also,the central pressure was lower than forecast by the large-scale models, which suggests to me the system was getting some energy from the convection. However as mentioned in my previous post concerning this system,they weigh too much in the other direction.

Ive spoken several times over the phone with todd and eric on this system and they concur with my views on this being a frontal hybrid type system. Everyone is entiled to there own opinions so i fully respect your views there stormw.

Quoting Tazmanian:
did that space shuted evere make it back to FL??? if so when???


Taz. The shuttle got back to KSC on 9/21/09 around noon. By the way, check out Bliz blog as you won for the frost in Bradford, PA.
Quoting lawntonlookers:


Taz. The shuttle got back to KSC on 9/21/09 around noon. By the way, check out Bliz blog as you won for the frost in Bradford, PA.




thnks and i this took a look a bliz blog and saw that i won
Morning everybody.

Just woke up (late day for me) to a heavy downpour with winds gusting up to abt 30 mph.

This is the recent IR view of The Bahamas from NASA....

1st cold snap for the USA more on my blog for info
I urge anyone interested in individual tropical cyclones stats and climatology across the atlantic to purchase a copy of the new revised edition of Tropical of the North Atlantic Ocean 1851-2006 includeds 2007-2008 track maps.About half way through my copy.

Quoting StormW:


I respect yours too. However, I have to disagree with you, Eric and Todd...based on the criteria...again by definition, a subtropical system is a combination of Tropical and extratropical characteristics. I wish all the guy's with degrees would get off that "frontal" kick. If you go by the definition, it doesn't matter if it has frontal characterisitcs. That would be representative of a MLC, or extratropical cyclone. And doesn't the definition say, a combination of both (being barotropic and baroclinic)? That's what we had. And I looked at the information as the center passed ashore, and over the buoy we presented on here. An extratropical low DOES NOT present the characteristics of wind speed ramping up as the center approaches, and having the wind speed drop to near nill, and having the pressure bottom out on the graph at the same time the wind speed drops as the center passes over (just like a hurricane or TS). Second, as the center passed, I had analyzed temps and dewpoints, in which they BOTH rose as the center passed ove a certain station, with temps rising 6-7F at that point, and other surrounding stations did not...just where the center was located.


StormW,
Good morning everyone! BY YOUR definitiion, what is the difference (to help me understand) between a SubTropical system and a XtraTropical.
My understanding is its SubTropical first and tries to become Tropical and ExtraTropical is after its already been Tropical.....i may have it wrong and probably do....LOL
609. IKE
NEW BLOG!
G'morning, all! I see that a ranging battle of titants is presently taking place in here. :)
Quoting IKE:


I hear ya. Nothing out there. I think most have given up on the Atlantic in 2009.
I think Mother Nature has two more storms before the seasons out.
Quoting presslord:
Good news! We have reconnected with an organization (with which we have worked in the past)...Caritas (www.caritas.org)...they have a strong presence in American Samoa and are better positioned than we are to provide immmediate aid there...I recommend them highly...our focus will be to fill whatever medical equipment and clinical supply needs arise...this is a more long term need...and a better fit for Portlight considering the distance involved...

:)