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Super Typhoon Nock-Ten Heads for a Christmas Day Landfall in the Philippines

By: Jeff Masters 6:24 PM GMT on December 24, 2016

Typhoon warnings are flying in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Nock-Ten steams westwards at 8 mph towards the Philippine island of Catanduanes. Nock-Ten is expected to make landfall there on Christmas Day as a major Category 3 or 4 storm, then continue westwards, gradually weakening due to land interaction, passing very close to the capital of Manila on Luzon Island the day after Christmas as a Category 1 storm. Nock-Ten likely peaked in intensity on Saturday morning, when the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated that the storm had sustained 1-minute winds of 150 mph and the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated a 915 mb central pressure. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed that Nock-Ten had grown slightly less organized compared to early Saturday morning, with an eye that was less distinct. Some erosion of the storm’s eyewall on the west side was apparent, likely caused by dry air to the west. Microwave satellite imagery on Saturday morning showed that Nock-Ten had developed a tiny 6-mile diameter eye surrounded by a concentric outer eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) might be underway. During an ERC, the inner eyewall gets unstable and collapses, resulting in a temporary weakening of the storm by 10 - 20 mph for up to 24 hours, until the outer eyewall can stabilize and take over as the the storm’s main eyewall. With Nock-ten experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and traversing very warm waters of 29°C (84°F)—1°C (1.8°F) above average—re-intensification after the ERC completes is possible, and satellite imagery early Saturday afternoon did show Nock-Ten had become more organized, with a prominent eye reappearing. However, the storm doesn’t have much time to intensify before interaction with land starts to weaken the typhoon, and dry air to the west may also interfere with intensification. Thus, it is unlikely that Nock-Ten will achieve Category 5 status.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Nock-ten taken at approximately 06 UTC December 24, 2016. At the time, Nock-ten was a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds, approaching the Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

The strongest Christmas Day typhoon for the Philippines
Nock-Ten will not be the first typhoon to hit the Philippines on Christmas Day, but it will likely be the strongest. The other two typhoons to hit the islands on Christmas Day were Category 2 Typhoon Lee in 1981 and Category 2 Typhoon Jean in 1947. The worst tropical cyclone in world history to strike on Christmas Day was Category 3 Cyclone Tracy, which devastated Darwin, Australia in 1974, killing 71 people and destroying 80% of the homes in the city.

According to NOAA’s historical hurricane archive, only seven major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity have hit the Philippines in December:

Category 4 Typhoon Harriet on December 31, 1959 (145 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Opal on December 14, 1964 (115 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Nanmadol on December 2, 2004 (135 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit on December 6, 2014 (125 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Gilda on December 18, 1959 (160 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Manny on December 9, 1993 (130 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Bopha on December 3, 2012 (170 mph winds)

If Nock-Ten hits the Philippines with 145 mph winds or stronger, it will be the strongest landfalling storm in the Philippines so late in the year. The strongest non-landfalling typhoon ever recorded so late in the year was Super Typhoon Hester, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds on December 31, 1952, about 1,000 miles east of the Philippines. Hester recurved out to sea without affecting any land areas.


Figure 2. Radar image of Nock-ten taken at approximately 1 pm EST December 24, 2016. Image credit: The Philippines’ weather service (PAGASA).

Nock-Ten likely to be a highly destructive storm for the Philippines
The projected track and intensity of Nock-Ten over the Philippines are similar to that of Typhoon Rammasun of July 2014, which killed 106 people and did $871 million in damage to the country, making it the third costliest typhoon in Philippines’ history, behind Haiyan of 2013 ($2 billion) and Bopha of 2012 ($1 billion], After making its initial landfall to the east of Manila as a Category 4 storm, land interaction weakened Rammasun to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds as it moved over Manila. Rammasun caused widespread havoc in the city of 12.8 million, leaving at least 90% of the residents of metropolitan Manila without power due to toppled poles and downed lines. Nock-ten is expected to be a weaker Category 1 storm when it passes over Manila, and its damage should be lower than that of Rammasun's. Still, damage from Nock-Ten could reach $500 million, which would make it the Philippines’ fifth most destructive typhoon in history. Rainfall from Nock-Ten is expected to exceed 8 inches over the core of its path, according to the 6Z Saturday run of the HWRF model.

Storm surge risk
The Philippines’ weather service (PAGASA) is warning of storm surge heights of up to 2.5 meters (8.2’) near where Nock-Ten makes its initial landfall, on the eastward-facing coastal areas of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes. Metro Manila, with approximately 12.8 million people, is also at risk of a damaging storm surge. However, surge heights will be lower there, due to the fact Manila faces to the west, away from the direction the storm is approaching from—and the fact that Nock-Ten should weaken to Category 1 strength before reaching Manila.

Recent research suggests that a worst-case storm like Super Typhoon Haiyan with 190 mph winds—if it were to follow the track of several historical typhoons—could bring a catastrophic storm surge of 3.9 to 5.6 m (13 - 18’) along the western seaboard of Metro Manila, even after the storm weakens due to passing over the land areas required to get to Manila. This was the conclusion of a poster presentation at last week’s meeting of the American Geophysical Union by John Kenneth Belena Suarez of the National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines, titled Possibility Of Generating Significant Storm Surge On The Western Seaboard Of Metro Manila, Philippines. The researchers studied historical typhoons since 1951 that had passed over Manila, like Rita of 1978, Collen of 1992, Sybil of 1995, Bebinca of 2000 and Xangsane of 2000. They concluded that if these storms had made their initial landfall as Category 5 super typhoons with 190 mph winds, they would have been able to generate storm surges of 3.9 to 5.6 m (13 - 18’) in Manila. Nock-Ten appears unlikely to be a worst-case storm, fortunately.

Note: the charts and advisories are not working on our main site for Nock-Ten; please use our mobile site to get the tracking maps and advisories for the storm.

Have a safe and happy holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I just missed the end of the last posting, but in light of the discussion about greetings in different languages, this is a piece of slate found in a Neolithic site. The interpretation seems to be "thank Goddess it's Solstice!"
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters and Merry Christmas to you and all the WU Peeps....
Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Hopefully it weakens quickly.
Some rainfall & snowfall totals from NWS San Diego

Link
When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........

Quoting 1. CaneFreeCR:

I just missed the end of the last posting, but in light of the discussion about greetings in different languages, this is a piece of slate found in a Neolithic site. The interpretation seems to be "thank Goddess it's Solstice!"



To me it looks like a bill from a stone mason. Looks like "I OWE YOU 5 STONES."
Quoting 5. frank727:

When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........




I have one of these pens. If you don't use it. You lose it.
Quoting 5. frank727:

When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........




http://www.snopes.com/business/genius/spacepen.as p

not true.
Quoting 8. johnkg:



http://www.snopes.com/business/genius/spacepen.as p

not true.


Link doesn't work you got another
Cost of Space Pen by NASA ($2.39). The space pen was actually much cheaper than the pencils NASA was using.

According to an Associated Press report from February 1968, NASA ordered 400 of Fisher's antigravity ballpoint pens for the Apollo program. A year later, the Soviet Union ordered 100 pens and 1,000 ink cartridges to use on their Soyuz space missions, said the United Press International. The AP later noted that both NASA and the Soviet space agency received the same 40 percent discount for buying their pens in bulk. They both paid $2.39 per pen instead of $3.98.

Link
Quoting 9. frank727:



Link doesn't work you got another

sorry, try this one: Link
30W/STY/NT/C4
TXPQ27 KNES 241459
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 13.6N

D. 127.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED CENTER AS EYE IS NOT CLOSED
OFF IN INFRARED IMAGERY. PT=6.0. MET=6.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
The new eyewall of Nock-ten seems to be be complete. That was an incredibly fast EWRC!



Unsurprisingly, the ADT numbers are now climbing well into the Cat 5 range. I really hope land interaction and possibly another EWRC will weaken this monster a bit before impact...

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TYPHOON NINA
5:00 AM PhST December 25 2016
==============================

Nina has maintained its strength and continues to endanger the Bicol region

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina (NOCK-TEN) [948 hPa] located at 13.6N 126.5E or 250 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #3
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring moderate to heavy damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Catanduanes
Albay
Camarines Sur

Signal Warning #2
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge of up to possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Southern Quezon
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Masbate including Ticao and Burias Island
Sorsogon

Visayas Region
------------------
Northern Samar

Signal Warning #1
=================
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
-----------------
Metro Manila
Bataan
Nueva Ecija
Southern Nueva Vizcaya
Southern Quirino
Zambales
Pampanga
Tarlac
Bulacan
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Rizal
the rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
Aurora
Romblon
Marinduque
Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Oriental Mindoro

Visayas Region
------------------
Aklan
Capiz
Samar
Eastern Samar
Biliran
Leyte
Bantayan Island

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by this afternoon or evening (Dec. 25).

Possible inclusion of Calamian Group of Islands to areas with TCWS #1 at 8 am today.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Samar and Leyte.

Storm surge height of up to 2.5 meters is possible over the coastal areas of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes.
Nock-ten

From Forbes:

Europe's Most Dangerous Supervolcano Is Reawakening Just In Time For Christmas


ASTER image of Campi Flegrei to the left of the image and Mount Vesuvius in the center of the image. This area of Italy is one of the deadliest and most dangerous places on Earth for volcanic activity. (Credit: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems,
and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team)


Just below millions of people there is a supervolcano that has begun to show signs of reawakening. The supervolcano, Campi Flegrei, is 8 miles wide and sits beneath the Bay of Naples offshore Italy. Recent monitoring of the volcano points to a reawakening of one of the largest volcanos in Europe.

An international team of geoscientists have monitored the volcano's caldera for signs of activity and recently published results in the journal Nature Communications on the increased danger of an eruption.

Campi Flegrei, which means "burning fields" in Italian, is believed to have formed hundreds of thousands of years ago and has erupted on several occasions in recent geologic time. The initial eruption, which occurred 200,000 years ago triggered a "volcanic winter" from the massive amount of ash ejected into the atmosphere. The volcano then erupted again 40,000 and 12,000 years ago. The eruption 40,000 years ago is thought to have wiped out most of the European Neanderthals and was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of all time. In recent memory, Campi Flegrei erupted in 1538 for 8 days straight, sending ash across Europe and forming the new mountain Monte Nuovo.

Read more here.
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR WESTERN U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM PST SAT DEC 24 2016


Excerpt:

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM PST FRI DEC
23 THROUGH 1200 PM PST SAT DEC 24...

...CALIFORNIA...
GIANT FOREST 15 SE 22.0


...IDAHO...
HAILEY 21 ENE 13.5


...NEVADA...
MT. CHARLESTON 5 NW 11.0


...OREGON...
PRINEVILLE 8 E 7.0


...WASHINGTON...
VALLEY 2 SE 8.0
Quoting 21. Xandra:

From Forbes:

Europe's Most Dangerous Supervolcano Is Reawakening Just In Time For Christmas


ASTER image of Campi Flegrei to the left of the image and Mount Vesuvius in the center of the image. This area of Italy is one of the deadliest and most dangerous places on Earth for volcanic activity. (Credit: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems,
and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team)


Just below millions of people there is a supervolcano that has begun to show signs of reawakening. The supervolcano, Campi Flegrei, is 8 miles wide and sits beneath the Bay of Naples offshore Italy. Recent monitoring of the volcano points to a reawakening of one of the largest volcanos in Europe.

An international team of geoscientists have monitored the volcano's caldera for signs of activity and recently published results in the journal Nature Communications on the increased danger of an eruption.

Campi Flegrei, which means "burning fields" in Italian, is believed to have formed hundreds of thousands of years ago and has erupted on several occasions in recent geologic time. The initial eruption, which occurred 200,000 years ago triggered a "volcanic winter" from the massive amount of ash ejected into the atmosphere. The volcano then erupted again 40,000 and 12,000 years ago. The eruption 40,000 years ago is thought to have wiped out most of the European Neanderthals and was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of all time. In recent memory, Campi Flegrei erupted in 1538 for 8 days straight, sending ash across Europe and forming the new mountain Monte Nuovo.

Read more here.


For once a study that is not behind a paywall........

Link
Quoting 20. Patrap:

Nock-ten




Not exactly what one would want knocking on the door on Christmas Eve...
Quoting 21. Xandra:

From Forbes:

Europe's Most Dangerous Supervolcano Is Reawakening Just In Time For Christmas


ASTER image of Campi Flegrei to the left of the image and Mount Vesuvius in the center of the image. This area of Italy is one of the deadliest and most dangerous places on Earth for volcanic activity. (Credit: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems,
and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team)


Just below millions of people there is a supervolcano that has begun to show signs of reawakening. The supervolcano, Campi Flegrei, is 8 miles wide and sits beneath the Bay of Naples offshore Italy. Recent monitoring of the volcano points to a reawakening of one of the largest volcanos in Europe.

An international team of geoscientists have monitored the volcano's caldera for signs of activity and recently published results in the journal Nature Communications on the increased danger of an eruption.

Campi Flegrei, which means "burning fields" in Italian, is believed to have formed hundreds of thousands of years ago and has erupted on several occasions in recent geologic time. The initial eruption, which occurred 200,000 years ago triggered a "volcanic winter" from the massive amount of ash ejected into the atmosphere. The volcano then erupted again 40,000 and 12,000 years ago. The eruption 40,000 years ago is thought to have wiped out most of the European Neanderthals and was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of all time. In recent memory, Campi Flegrei erupted in 1538 for 8 days straight, sending ash across Europe and forming the new mountain Monte Nuovo.

Read more here.

Quoting 24. CybrTeddy:



Not exactly what one would want knocking on the door on Christmas Eve...
Sure don't want it coming down your chimney.
Als I Lay on Yoolis Night: a Christmas carol from the first quarter of the 1300s. Expand to full screen to read the lyrics and translation better if necessary. Enjoy!

Quoting 25. nrtiwlnvragn:



Is the ewrc done?
Quoting 7. Hurricane4Lex:



I have one of these pens. If you don't use it. You lose it.

You have a cockatiel?
Quoting 21. Xandra:

From Forbes:

Europe's Most Dangerous Supervolcano Is Reawakening Just In Time For Christmas


ASTER image of Campi Flegrei to the left of the image and Mount Vesuvius in the center of the image. This area of Italy is one of the deadliest and most dangerous places on Earth for volcanic activity. (Credit: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems,
and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team)


Just below millions of people there is a supervolcano that has begun to show signs of reawakening. The supervolcano, Campi Flegrei, is 8 miles wide and sits beneath the Bay of Naples offshore Italy. Recent monitoring of the volcano points to a reawakening of one of the largest volcanos in Europe.

An international team of geoscientists have monitored the volcano's caldera for signs of activity and recently published results in the journal Nature Communications on the increased danger of an eruption.

Campi Flegrei, which means "burning fields" in Italian, is believed to have formed hundreds of thousands of years ago and has erupted on several occasions in recent geologic time. The initial eruption, which occurred 200,000 years ago triggered a "volcanic winter" from the massive amount of ash ejected into the atmosphere. The volcano then erupted again 40,000 and 12,000 years ago. The eruption 40,000 years ago is thought to have wiped out most of the European Neanderthals and was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of all time. In recent memory, Campi Flegrei erupted in 1538 for 8 days straight, sending ash across Europe and forming the new mountain Monte Nuovo.

Read more here.


If it goes, that would solve the global warming problem we have -- potentially permanently...
Quoting 30. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is the ewrc done?


Sure appears so
This is one powerful super typhoon. Beautiful to look at, but one deadly beast. Prayers for those in the Philippines, and lets hope and pray we don't have any death toll. What a Christmas for that area, unbelievable. MERRY CHRISTMAS by the way, and I hope nothing but the best for all the wunderground family, Amen. :)






Time for an eggnog in my Christmas Vacation moose mug!

Quoting 32. Dakster:



If it goes, that would solve the global warming problem we have -- potentially permanently...


It would make things more interesting. Especially for the Locals...
Quoting 35. GeoffreyWPB:

Time for an eggnog in my Christmas Vacation moose mug!



Nice mug, wrong eggnog.
Quoting 37. washingaway:


Nice mug, wrong eggnog.

That looks good!
Quoting 38. Kenfa03:

That looks good!


I tired to buy some eggnog today at ABC but they were sold out :(.....
Quoting 5. frank727:

When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........


Source? None, since it is a myth: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-o r-fiction-nasa-spen/
Much has been made in certain quarters about the recent snowfall in the Sahara and the fact that it's been 37 years since the previous snowfall. Does anyone know of a source that would list snowfalls in the Sahara so we could know how common they are in general?
Quoting 41. riverat544:

Much has been made in certain quarters about the recent snowfall in the Sahara and the fact that it's been 37 years since the previous snowfall. Does anyone know of a source that would list snowfalls in the Sahara so we could know how common they are in general?


I would say with great confidence they are rare.
Fog is thick here in the Big Easy. Went up the street to Walgreens to get some of that egg nog and there were patches of zero visibility. I'm glad I chose not to go out tonight.
Quoting 35. GeoffreyWPB:

Time for an eggnog in my Christmas Vacation moose mug!




Mexxy Xmas, Geoff.
Tropical tidbits says 898mb for Nock-ten :O
Quoting 5. frank727:

When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........




If somebody is still writing when it is over 300 C. it must be very important.
47. wpb
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/#radar
Good evening everyone. Hope you all are having (or had) a nice Christmas eve.

As of a little over an hour ago for Nock-Ten/Nina (they are UTC + 8):


(Source)
Good evening, everybody!

Just finished delivering the last of the presents and food to two families that needed help this Christmas; one with two kids and the other with six. Life's tough for so many people this year and we (my group of gal pals) were able to kick in for a few of them.

It's a very cool 72 with a few showers around the island at the moment but tomorrow is forecasted to be a beautiful 85. That will help with our Christmas gathering at Megan's Beach (one of the 7 most beautiful in the world) where we will be doing a potluck for all our friends and others that have nowhere else to go. So much fun! If you happen to be around, come join us!! ;-)

I'd like to wish each and every one of you a most wonderful, peaceful, fun filled and loving Christmas..... keeping in our minds and prayers those that are facing such troubling times these days....

The very best to all of you!!

Lindy

(PS.... I'd love to throw a snowball rather than a spitball at Joe...but alas, the white stuff just doesn't exist over here... ;-)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON NINA
11:00 AM PhST December 25 2016
==============================

Nina has intensified and further increased its threat to the Bicol region

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina (NOCK-TEN) [943 hPa] located at 13.4N 125.6E or 150 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #4
=================
Very heavy damage to high–risk structures
Heavy damage to medium risk structures;
Moderate damage to low-risk structures
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters. Storm surge 2-3m possible at coastal areas.

Luzon region
------------------
Catanduanes

Signal Warning #3
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring moderate to heavy damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Burias Islands
Albay
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
southern Quezon

Signal Warning #2
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge of up to possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Masbate including Ticao Island
Sorsogon
Oriental Mindoro
Batangas
Laguna
rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
Marinduque
Romblon

Visayas Region
------------------
Northern Samar

Signal Warning #1
=================
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
-----------------
Metro Manila
Rizal
Bataan
Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Southern Quirino
Southern Nueva
Vizcaya
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan,Tarlac
Cavite

Visayas Region
------------------
Aklan
Capiz
Samar
Eastern Samar
Biliran
Leyte
Bantayan Island

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes this afternoon or evening (Dec. 25).

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon.

Storm surge height of up to 2.5 meters is possible over the coastal areas of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay and Catanduanes.
Quoting 45. AlphaBetaGamma01:

Tropical tidbits says 898mb for Nock-ten :O


China Meteorological Administration has the pressure at 900 hPa.
Quoting 5. frank727:

When Jefferson sent the Corps of Discovery West it was estimated to cost $ 5,000 , in 1803 dollars. The final tab was over $40,000.
Quoting 5. frank727:

When NASA started sending astronauts into space they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity.


To combat this problem, Congress approved a program and NASA scientists spent a decade and over $165 million developing a pen that writes in zero gravity,upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 300 C.


The Russians used a pencil...


Your taxes are due in April........




That story is still as false as it was when it was spread as around in an email chain in the late 90s. Also, seeing as we're on fake often repeated space-related email chains, Mars will not be as large as the Full Moon in the night sky in 2017 at any point.
Climate change The warming Arctic
The country set to cash in on climate change


Asked if he is fearful about the impact of climate change, Tønnes “Kaka” Berthelsen’s response is typical of many Greenlanders. “We are more concerned about the Maldives,” he said bluntly.

Greenland has lived with extreme environmental changes for a decade or more. Sea ice is forming two months later and melting one month earlier. Rivers fed by retreating glaciers are at record levels. And temperature records were smashed twice this year, with stunned meteorologists rechecking their measurements after 24C was recorded in the capital, Nuuk, in June.


Link
The simularities are uncanny. Are galaxies cosmic storms? I say yes. We are sooooo minuscule.
Merry Christmas everybody. It is good that for at least one night a year we can set aside our differences and wish each other well. Peace be with you all.
Merry Christmas no matter what side of the aisle you're on.


Quoting 31. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


You have a cockatiel?


They were my first birds. Had 4 but outlived them all by now =/. I have a quaker though.

About the space pens there is also a way to "unlose" them again. Should I give a hint? For sure in a lab (chemical, electrical, medical) this would be solved in less than 10 seconds. Another hint is it takes care of microbes thru mechanical action rather than chemical. The average household should usually have it on hand. Along with other supplies of the urgency/emergency type. I am also using a lot of it for the holidays. (too many hints by now [rolls eyes])
Quoting 56. washingaway:

The simularities are uncanny. Are galaxies cosmic storms? I say yes. We are sooooo minuscule.


You may be on the verge of discovering central forces (1/r^2) :)
Super Typhoon Nock-ten will make landfall right over the city of Virac (population around 74.000) during the next hour or so. I have already seen some reports of wind gusts above 130 mph (209 kph) but I am not sure if these are official or not. The pressure in Virac is still above 990 mb so it appears that Nock-ten is an incredibly compact typhoon.



A close-up view of Nock-ten's eye and the city of Virac
10-minute sustained winds at Virac are now 90 mph (144 kph) with a pressure of 982 mb. Unfortunately, the eye seems to clear out right before landfall :(
Virac is now right inside the eye of Nock-ten! There are again reports of wind gusts around 130 mph (209 kph) coming from the city...

Also, the landfall is now official:


Merry Christmas to the staff and bloggers of WU...
Quoting 59. cRRKampen:


You may be on the verge of discovering central forces (1/r^2) :)

My post was more about whether a galaxy could be classified as a storm out in space, not the physics behind it. However, I would like to point out a few more similarities. On earth we get a depression in our atmosphere that causes cyclones. In space, it is believed most, if not all, spiral galaxies have "black holes". These so called black holes are believe to be caused by super massive bodies that cause a steep depression in the fabric of space.

Now, do these black holes move through space collecting stars and dust, or, do they form the clouds and dust. Think about how storms form on earth and with the advent of satellite we see clouds that appear to form from nothing. In the early days we just had visible satellite now we have water vapor sat.. The math tells us that there is matter in space that we cannot see (yet) and we call it "dark matter". Maybe one day we will develope a way to see it and know what it is. I was just pondering whether galaxies form in a similar way as storms do on earth, meaning, is there an enter action with a black hole and dark matter that makes the matter visible much like water vapor becomes visible in the form of clouds that reflect light. Just a thought. I guess I could spend my time watching Dancing With The Stars instead.

Edit: I failed to mention "dark entergy" and E=mc 2 thing.
Merry Christmas everyone.

From a damp and drizzly Trinidad.
It's just Perfect !

Have a Fantastic day all.
Merry Christmas!!
Merry Christmas to all at WU who put in the time to make this blog possible and to the participants who make it a lively, sometimes contentious, educational worldwide forum that is a valued part of my day.
Quoting 56. washingaway:

The simularities are uncanny. Are galaxies cosmic storms? I say yes. We are sooooo minuscule.



The laws of physics govern all.
blowup of convection moving onshore nicaraqua. kind of unusual.
Quoting 52. RobertWC:

Quoting 5. frank727:

When Jefferson sent the Corps of Discovery West it was estimated to cost $ 5,000 , in 1803 dollars. The final tab was over $40,000.


That doesn't actually add up. Back then tariffs were able to pay the majority of services so taxes were lower. If one needed a homestead, it wouldn't cost 2000 per acre so the cost of labor was lower. People could actually afford to volunteer for some kind of effort such as this. Lets say we want some food along the way, we can't buy any buffalo steaks and pelts from the Indians for a handful of chincy trinkets. Try going to a restaurant and handing them a chunk of junk you got out of a gumball machine to feed your family. Not to say government waste doesn't exist, but the overhead for Medicaid is 5%. Private health insurance, which has a tendency to screw you anyways and charge outrageous fees has a 100% overhead you must pay for.
Merry Christmas to you all from the sunny Cayman Islands and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year when it arrives.

Kman
happy holidays too one and all
from my house to yours have a great day

dinner will be served by noon here


Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



That story is still as false as it was when it was spread as around in an email chain in the late 90s. Also, seeing as we're on fake often repeated space-related email chains, Mars will not be as large as the Full Moon in the night sky in 2017 at any point.
Well there goes my vacation plan *poof*
Extreme weather warning for southern Norway:
Link
Just wanted to pop in to say Merry Christmas. May the New Year bring prosperity and happiness to you and those you love.

I'm spending the holiday near Punta Gorda, FL visiting my mother-in-law. It's hot, and there's this really bright thing in the sky that is around all day long...

The only working weather station near Nock-ten seems to be Libon, Albay (which is currently a bit south of the eye). It recently reported 954.8 mb without any wind data. Virac weather station is offline since 10 UTC...
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1428 UTC SUN DEC 25 2016


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.7
* ORIGIN TIME 1422 UTC DEC 25 2016
* COORDINATES 43.3 SOUTH 74.5 WEST
* DEPTH 15 KM / 9 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN CHILE


* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 1000 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.



TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
432 AM HST SUN DEC 25 2016


THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A TSUNAMI THREAT
MESSAGE FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
EARTHQUAKE. HOWEVER... BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA
THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
info and listen to earthquake here

Link
NASA Hurricane Tracking help with Missions...................................Link
Chile hit by 7.7 magnitude earthquake
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said hazardous waves of up to 3m (9ft 10in) above tide level were possible on coasts located up to 1,000km from the quake's epicentre.
Quoting 32. Dakster:



If it goes, that would solve the global warming problem we have -- potentially permanently...


Not really. It's not the Yellowstone Caldera.

It would be a big eruption, and would likely have a global impact (assuming an all-at-once eruption), but the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to hang around for centuries. Even supervolcanic eruptions don't have long term atmospheric impacts. Once the ash and sulfur dioxide wash out of the atmosphere (which only takes a few years at most) things go back to normal.

Of course, the devastation would be pretty impressive but if anything it would be a temporary hiccup in our industrial emissions.
Although its been said many times, many ways, Merry Christmas to you.
Quoting 83. Xyrus2000:



Not really. It's not the Yellowstone Caldera.

It would be a big eruption, and would likely have a global impact (assuming an all-at-once eruption), but the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to hang around for centuries. Even supervolcanic eruptions don't have long term atmospheric impacts. Once the ash and sulfur dioxide wash out of the atmosphere (which only takes a few years at most) things go back to normal.

Of course, the devastation would be pretty impressive but if anything it would be a temporary hiccup in our industrial emissions.


USGS seems to believe the effects would be a little more significant.
"If another catastrophic caldera-forming Yellowstone eruption were to occur, it quite likely would alter global weather patterns and have enormous effects on human activity, especially agricultural production, for one-to-two decades.
"
Link
May everyone enjoy "tidings of comfort and joy" today.
My thoughts and prayers for those throughout the world that are not.
Peace.
Quoting 83. Xyrus2000:



Not really. It's not the Yellowstone Caldera.

It would be a big eruption, and would likely have a global impact (assuming an all-at-once eruption), but the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to hang around for centuries. Even supervolcanic eruptions don't have long term atmospheric impacts. Once the ash and sulfur dioxide wash out of the atmosphere (which only takes a few years at most) things go back to normal.

Of course, the devastation would be pretty impressive but if anything it would be a temporary hiccup in our industrial emissions.

Currently, "Volcanic emissions contribute less than 1% to the total global CO2 emissions", and "Anthropogenic annual CO2 emissions are by a factor of 100 higher than total natural degassing of the Earth".
Sources: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/emissions_0 207.pdf
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/gas_climate.html

If the eruption is large enough to eject SO2 into the stratosphere then a veil of H2SO4 aerosols is formed that can cause cooling for a few years, until the aerosol layer settles back into the troposphere and eventually gets washed back to the Earth's surface with precipitation. The fraction of CO2 in an eruption is 1-40%, so the net effect of a really large eruption is brief cooling followed by an addition to ongoing CO2-induced warming.
P.S. From the second source:
"Number of Pinatubo-equivalent eruptions equal to 2010 global anthropogenic CO2: 700"
Santa flies cosmic hurricane reconnaissance missions in the off season. It's true.
Quoting 64. washingaway:


My post was more about whether a galaxy could be classified as a storm out in space, not the physics behind it. However, I would like to point out a few more similarities. On earth we get a depression in our atmosphere that causes cyclones. In space, it is believed most, if not all, spiral galaxies have "black holes". These so called black holes are believe to be caused by super massive bodies that cause a steep depression in the fabric of space.

Now, do these black holes move through space collecting stars and dust, or, do they form the clouds and dust. Think about how storms form on earth and with the advent of satellite we see clouds that appear to form from nothing. In the early days we just had visible satellite now we have water vapor sat.. The math tells us that there is matter in space that we cannot see (yet) and we call it "dark matter". Maybe one day we will develope a way to see it and know what it is. I was just pondering whether galaxies form in a similar way as storms do on earth, meaning, is there an enter action with a black hole and dark matter that makes the matter visible much like water vapor becomes visible in the form of clouds that reflect light. Just a thought. I guess I could spend my time watching Dancing With The Stars instead.

Edit: I failed to mention "dark entergy" and E=mc 2 thing.


Short answer: No.

Long Answer: There is no known mechanism nor any supporting physics which would allow non-baryonic matter (dark matter) to be come baryonic matter ("normal" matter), or vice-versa. The consequences of such a mechanism would not be hard to miss. For example, there would be no galaxies as any singularities would grow uncontrollably and swallow everything. Obviously, that isn't happening. :)

Galaxies and hurricanes really only have visual similarities, and that only applies to a certain type of galaxy (spiral galaxies to be precise, but galaxies don't have to be spiral). Gravity doesn't "condense" matter like a low pressure system and atmospheric conditions condense water. In fact, gravity doesn't "do" anything to matter, and what it appears to do is relative to the observer.

Consider the orbits of planets around the sun. From elementary school on up we're taught that our planets orbits are circles or elliptical or what have you and that it's caused by the "force" of gravity. That's pretty easy to grasp, but it's not really correct. Planets aren't traveling in circles. Planets are traveling in straight lines. It's the geometry that's curved. The presence of mass warps the geometry of space, transforming a normal Euclidean space to become non-Euclidean.

An analogy I used when I was tutoring undergrad college physics was to take a deflated balloon, flatten it out as much as possible, and draw a ruler straight line on it. Is that line straight? Yes. Now inflate the balloon. Is that line still straight? That depends on your frame of reference. Relative to the surface of the balloon (the balloon's geometry), the answer is yes. But relative to the outside observer, the answer is no as we can clearly see the balloon's geometry was changed to make the straight line appear curved.

Gravity really is amazingly complex when you start digging into it. It can be mind-bending (u c wat i ded thar?). ;)
Philippinos love their Christmas too, maybe even more than here in N America. :( they start celebrating it in September. I feel for them right now.
78 and sunny here in Florida, wish I can send them some of this.
Quoting 87. guygee:


Currently, "Volcanic emissions contribute less than 1% to the total global CO2 emissions", and "Anthropogenic annual CO2 emissions are by a factor of 100 higher than total natural degassing of the Earth".
Sources: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/emissions_0 207.pdf
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/gas_climate.html

If the eruption is large enough to eject SO2 into the stratosphere then a veil of H2SO4 aerosols is formed that can cause cooling for a few years, until the aerosol layer settles back into the troposphere and eventually gets washed back to the Earth's surface with precipitation. The fraction of CO2 in an eruption is 1-40%, so the net effect of a really large eruption is brief cooling followed by an addition to ongoing CO2-induced warming.
P.S. From the second source:
"Number of Pinatubo-equivalent eruptions equal to 2010 global anthropogenic CO2: 700"


Ah, I think you misinterpreted by "back to normal" statement. :)

I didn't mean the planet goes back to normal CO2 levels. I meant things go back to "business as usual" where the additional greenhouse gasses we've been dumping into the atmosphere go right back to warming up the planet.

This is one of the main reasons why I think any geoengineering effort that doesn't address CO2 is, at best, a complete waste of time, money, and resources. One Trump and those efforts could be defunded, and with all the CO2 still in the atmosphere you'd have a very rapid climate destabilization as opposed to just the fast one we're dealing with now. :P
Quoting 89. Xyrus2000:



Short answer: No.

Long Answer: There is no known mechanism nor any supporting physics which would allow non-baryonic matter (dark matter) to be come baryonic matter ("normal" matter), or vice-versa. The consequences of such a mechanism would not be hard to miss. For example, there would be no galaxies as any singularities would grow uncontrollably and swallow everything. Obviously, that isn't happening. :)

Galaxies and hurricanes really only have visual similarities, and that only applies to a certain type of galaxy (spiral galaxies to be precise, but galaxies don't have to be spiral). Gravity doesn't "condense" matter like a low pressure system and atmospheric conditions condense water. In fact, gravity doesn't "do" anything to matter, and what it appears to do is relative to the observer.

Consider the orbits of planets around the sun. From elementary school on up we're taught that our planets orbits are circles or elliptical or what have you and that it's caused by the "force" of gravity. That's pretty easy to grasp, but it's not really correct. Planets aren't traveling in circles. Planets are traveling in straight lines. It's the geometry that's curved. The presence of mass warps the geometry of space, transforming a normal Euclidean space to become non-Euclidean.

An analogy I used when I was tutoring undergrad college physics was to take a deflated balloon, flatten it out as much as possible, and draw a ruler straight line on it. Is that line straight? Yes. Now inflate the balloon. Is that line still straight? That depends on your frame of reference. Relative to the surface of the balloon (the balloon's geometry), the answer is yes. But relative to the outside observer, the answer is no as we can clearly see the balloon's geometry was changed to make the straight line appear curved.

Gravity really is amazingly complex when you start digging into it. It can be mind-bending (u c wat i ded thar?). ;)

Well that does it. For now on the only stars I'll be watching are the ones dancing.
Storm has all sorts of weather....

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 05 FOR WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016



A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW IN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...IN ADDITION TO PARTS OF MONTANA AND MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. AN AREA FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THAT SAW FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS SNOW ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF UTAH AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CAN EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH A BAND OF 12 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
Quoting 91. Xyrus2000:



Ah, I think you misinterpreted by "back to normal" statement. :)

I didn't mean the planet goes back to normal CO2 levels. I meant things go back to "business as usual" where the additional greenhouse gasses we've been dumping into the atmosphere go right back to warming up the planet.

This is one of the main reasons why I think any geoengineering effort that doesn't address CO2 is, at best, a complete waste of time, money, and resources. One Trump and those efforts could be defunded, and with all the CO2 still in the atmosphere you'd have a very rapid climate destabilization as opposed to just the fast one we're dealing with now. :P
Good point on the geoengineering schemes. In addition, if all "externalities" are included, it is difficult to imagine a safe geoengineering plan that does not actually contribute more CO2 than it removes. Geoengineering is essentially an experiment on a global scale, as would be any potentially disastrous unintended consequences.
Galaxies are not a storm, as in a Storm the winds nearer the center move faster than those way out. In a Spiral Galaxy as ours, the stars on the edge rotate with the same speed as those close in to the Black Hole center.

A true Paradox.

he rotation curve of a disc galaxy (also called a velocity curve) is a plot of the orbital speeds of visible stars or gas in that galaxy versus their radial distance from that galaxy's centre. It is typically rendered graphically as a plot.

The rotational/orbital speeds of galaxies/stars do not follow the rules found in other orbital systems such as stars/planets and planets/moons that have most of their mass at the centre. Stars revolve around their galaxy's centre at equal or increasing speed over a large range of distances. In contrast, the orbital velocity of planets in solar systems and moons orbiting planets decline with distance. In the latter cases, this reflects the mass distributions within those systems. The mass estimations for galaxies based on the light they emit are far too low to explain the velocity observations.

The rotation curves of spiral galaxies are asymmetric. The observational data from each side of a galaxy are generally averaged. Rotation curve asymmetry appears to be normal rather than exceptional.[2]

The galaxy rotation problem is the discrepancy between observed galaxy rotation curves and the theoretical prediction, assuming a centrally dominated mass associated with the observed luminous material. When mass profiles of galaxies are calculated from the distribution of stars in spirals and mass-to-light ratios in the stellar disks, they do not match with the masses derived from the observed rotation curves and the law of gravity. A solution to this conundrum is to hypothesize the existence of dark matter and to assume its distribution from the galaxy's center out to its halo.

Though dark matter is by far the most accepted explanation of the rotation problem, other proposals have been offered with varying degrees of success. Of the possible alternatives, the most notable is Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND), which involves modifying the laws of gravity.[3]





Quoting 89. Xyrus2000:

Found this: Could Dark Matter Ever Form a Star
Quoting 95. Patrap:

Galaxies are not a storm, as in a Storm the winds nearer the center move faster than those way out. In a Spiral Galaxy as ours, the stars on the edge rotate with the same speed as those close in to the Black Hole center.

A true Paradox.

he rotation curve of a disc galaxy (also called a velocity curve) is a plot of the orbital speeds of visible stars or gas in that galaxy versus their radial distance from that galaxy's centre. It is typically rendered graphically as a plot.

The rotational/orbital speeds of galaxies/stars do not follow the rules found in other orbital systems such as stars/planets and planets/moons that have most of their mass at the centre. Stars revolve around their galaxy's centre at equal or increasing speed over a large range of distances. In contrast, the orbital velocity of planets in solar systems and moons orbiting planets decline with distance. In the latter cases, this reflects the mass distributions within those systems. The mass estimations for galaxies based on the light they emit are far too low to explain the velocity observations.

The rotation curves of spiral galaxies are asymmetric. The observational data from each side of a galaxy are generally averaged. Rotation curve asymmetry appears to be normal rather than exceptional.[2]

The galaxy rotation problem is the discrepancy between observed galaxy rotation curves and the theoretical prediction, assuming a centrally dominated mass associated with the observed luminous material. When mass profiles of galaxies are calculated from the distribution of stars in spirals and mass-to-light ratios in the stellar disks, they do not match with the masses derived from the observed rotation curves and the law of gravity. A solution to this conundrum is to hypothesize the existence of dark matter and to assume its distribution from the galaxy's center out to its halo.

Though dark matter is by far the most accepted explanation of the rotation problem, other proposals have been offered with varying degrees of success. Of the possible alternatives, the most notable is Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND), which involves modifying the laws of gravity.[3]







You might consider it a storm if one of dem dere galaxies was headed to your house. (:/
I believe I have led the blog astray. Sorry.
I have a suggestive woman in my iPad. When I make an error she voices a suggestion. I, thinking she is smarter than me continues by pressing the space bar key, only to learn she has made a fool of me, and I do that enough on my own. I was typing interaction, she says interaction, but what do I get? "enter action". I really want Morgan Freemen in my iPad.
Say a prayer for the folks in the P.I.

Quoting 74. guygee:

Well there goes my vacation plan *poof*

The big astronomical event for 2017 is the total solar eclipse that will sweep across the USA from Oregon to South Carolina on August 21st. If you don't have your reservations already it may be too late. The center of the path of totality is about 10 miles south of my home here in Salem, Oregon. Lucky me.

Merry Christmas to all you denizens of the Weather Underground.
Hot and bone dry here in Fort Myers.
Here's the past 60 day precipitation estimates. I know it's only rained one time for about 5 minutes in the past 2 1/2 months here at the house.
Hey, I might be right after all: Statistical Analysis Shows Unexpected Interaction Between Dark Matter and Ordinary MatterLink in some respects anyway.
The crayon is out for a system north of Reunion Island and Madagascar:




Keeping on the theme of storms on other Worlds.
Giant Storm Systems Battle on Jupiter
Credit: Voyager 2, NASA
Merry Christmas to everyone at WU (and your families). Woke up to a nice winter wonderland this morning. Not sure how much snow we got, as it's blown around a bit.


View from my front door.
Here in Fort Myers we're trying to break the record high for the date which was set only last year.
From the Manila Times:

1M flee Nina’s path
LEGAZPI, Albay: Super typhoon “Nina” (international name “Nock-Ten”) lashed out at the Bicol region before hitting land in Catanduanes province at 6:30 in the evening on Sunday, sending more than one million people to evacuation centers on Christmas Day.

“We’re bracing for the worst impact of super typhoon Nina. But everything is in place including food provision for the evacuees,” Catanduanes Gov. Joseph Cua told The Manila Times.

Babies, toddlers and old people were loaded onto military trucks in pouring rain to flee the path of the powerful typhoon barreling toward the disaster-prone archipelago.

Officials warned of storm surges up to 2.5 meters high, moderate to heavy rain within the storm’s 500-kilometer diameter, landslides and flash floods.
Full article
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Brief freezing rain early Monday, then rain.

A brief period of freezing rain is expected early Monday morning as a warm front approaches. The freezing rain will change to periods of rain during the morning. The rain will end by evening.

Untreated roads may be icy early Monday morning. Caution is advised.

Freezing rain warnings may be needed as the event approaches.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm
30W/TY/NT/C2


weaken significantly due to land interaction but still a formidable high impact threat
Ok, what did you get for Chrismas? I got further in debt, a pair of comfy slippers, a sweater (doesn't fit), 12year old scotch, and a partridge in pair tree.
Quoting 112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

30W/TY/NT/C2


weaken significantly due to land interaction but still a formidable high impact threat

It sucks getting a major on any day, but getting one on Chrismas day? I hope those people had a good typhon plan.
I'm only 56, and will be 57, 21 days from today.

I was concieved in April of 1959. I have lived thru 11 Presidency's. My Heart has been beating in 7 decades. I've Lived in 2 centuries, and two millennium.

I say to myself, what a Wunderful Werld'

Thanx for everyone in it. Peace to you, this day and every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the community here and to the wu staff in San Francisco.


Quoting 117. Patrap:

I'm only 56, and will be 57, 21 days from today.

I was concieved in April of 1959. I have lived thru 11 Presidency's. My Heart has been beating in 7 decades. I've Lived in 2 centuries, and two millennium.

I say to myself, what a Wunderful Werld'

Thanx for everyone in it. Peace to you, this day and every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the community here and to the wu staff in San Francisco.




Hey I'm older than you by 16 days, therefore, I must be wiser. (:D


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 DEC 2016 Time : 191000 UTC
Lat : 13:29:57 N Lon : 122:51:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.5mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 4.6

Center Temp : -71.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 91km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees



Quoting 117. Patrap:

I'm only 56, and will be 57, 21 days from today.

I was concieved in April of 1959. I have lived thru 11 Presidency's. My Heart has been beating in 7 decades. I've Lived in 2 centuries, and two millennium.

I say to myself, what a Wunderful Werld'

Thanx for everyone in it. Peace to you, this day and every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the community here and to the wu staff in San Francisco.




Um, I think your math is off a little there buddy. Anyway, Merry Chrismas Pat to you and you're family.
Finally got on here. I tried this morning and it gave me an error message, see below:

After about 4 hours I got logged in on my laptop. Never have login issues, unless the site is down.
So, Merry Christmas to all the WU staff and to all the WU community...
How is the rain in your area Ped?

Quoting 124. Dakster:

How is the rain in your area Ped?




4.84" since 10/18, 55.8F today so far, Sun is out and it is Clear...
Did The Weather Channel twist a story to fit a narrative (agenda) in this case it sure seems so.

Weather Channel report on Vanishing America challenged by residents of Minot, North Dakota

Source Washington Times via Yahoo.

Having been to Minot over 100 times, I can assure you it is still there and in fact rapidly expanding. Minot has grown over 20% since 2010.

As always why lets facts get in the way

If you are going to cut a paste an entry from Wikipedia about the Galaxy Rotation Curve at least do the honorable thing and post your source.
Quoting 125. PedleyCA:



4.84" since 10/18, 55.8F today so far, Sun is out and it is Clear...


What's normal?

We got some light freezing rain - waiting to see how much turnagain pass got. up to 22" of snow was forecast.
Am I in Ann Arbor or am I in Sofia?
Quoting 128. Dakster:



What's normal?

We got some light freezing rain - waiting to see how much turnagain pass got. up to 22" of snow was forecast.


Normal, what's that.. used to be 10-12 if i recall correctly. Last water year 10/1/15-10/1/16 was 6.65",
10/1/2014-10/1/2015 was 11.47"
Merry Christmas from Ann Arbor where we're visiting relatives today. I'm testing my new smart phone. It's awkward compared to a desktop computer.
It's raining here.
Quoting 131. ChiThom:

Merry Christmas from Ann Arbor where we're visiting relatives today. I'm testing my new smart phone. It's awkward compared to a desktop computer.
It's raining here.


Too small and Android....
Sunrize Viz, Nock-ten

Γεώργιος Κυριάκος Παναγιώτου, known as George Michael (25 June 1963 - 25 December 2016)

Last Christmas

Quoting 117. Patrap:

I'm only 56, and will be 57, 21 days from today.

I was concieved in April of 1959. I have lived thru 11 Presidency's. My Heart has been beating in 7 decades. I've Lived in 2 centuries, and two millennium.

I say to myself, what a Wunderful Werld'

Thanx for everyone in it. Peace to you, this day and every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the community here and to the wu staff in San Francisco.





Here's something from two NOLA greats.
Joyeux Noël to you and yours.
Using the Patrapian calendar, I have deduced the following:
I have two children, my oldest has lived in 3 decades, 2 centuries, and 2 millenniums. My youngest has lived in 2 decades, 1 century, and 1 millennium. My children's ages are 19 and 12. There is one glaring question from all of this, why do I have a 12 year old at the age of 57? Do any of you have any idea what I'm going to have to go through, AGAIN, in next 6 years?
So, when I tell my 12 year old he has lived in 2 decades, 1 century, and 1 millennium, his response: "Does that mean I can do whatever I want?"


Way out in LaLA land but wow!
To bad it'll never verify. Fun to look at tho.
i've been trying to get on all day to wish you all a Merry Christmas. Just made it. The last of the guests have gone. I hope everyone had a good holiday.
Another voice gone too soon.

...I know your not a fool'...


Quoting 130. PedleyCA:



Normal, what's that.. used to be 10-12 if i recall correctly. Last water year 10/1/15-10/1/16 was 6.65",
10/1/2014-10/1/2015 was 11.47"


Not good my friend. You are becoming the next Sahara if this keeps up.
143. MahFL
Quoting 141. Patrap:

Another voice gone too soon.


When your time is up, your time is up.
Merry Christmas to everyone here at the WU.

In the Willamette Valley in was a beautiful clear Christmas day. From my parents home in west Corvallis we could look out over the valley and see Mt. Jefferson and the Three Sisters (snowcapped 10,000 foot mountains in the Cascade range). But the high temperature was around 40. I'm writing this at 8:20 pm and it's now below freezing with frost on my deck.
Quoting 143. MahFL:



When your time is up, your time is up.

Yep. I'm trying to make my doctor understand that. I told her, "Look, I'm entering the fourth quarter here. I know how the game turns out: I lose. So, that means I have two basic choices, based on what you are telling me. 1. I can reach the end of the game without the crispy, smoky goodness of bacon, or 2. With the crispy, smoky goodness of bacon. Yeah, I'm going with option 2."

Because if bacon can't take the sting out of dying, then nothing can...and at least I'll have bacon.

Oh, and there was weather of some type here in Central FL. I think it rained a little bit, but I'm not sure since I also think someone spiked the eggnog (in fact, I know it) and I I got a little sleepy.
It was broken!
Quoting 108. Sfloridacat5:

Here in Fort Myers we're trying to break the record high for the date which was set only last year.


Makes two of us. 7/22/59!
Seen a lot of changes throughout our lives!
BTW, your already 57!

Quoting 117. Patrap:

I'm only 56, and will be 57, 21 days from today.

I was concieved in April of 1959. I have lived thru 11 Presidency's. My Heart has been beating in 7 decades. I've Lived in 2 centuries, and two millennium.

I say to myself, what a Wunderful Werld'

Thanx for everyone in it. Peace to you, this day and every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the community here and to the wu staff in San Francisco.



system finally starts its way out of the area and continue to weaken in the South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST December 26 2016
============================

In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nock-ten (970 hPa) located at 14.2N 119.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.2N 116.4E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
48 HRS: 12.8N 112.7E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) South China Sea
72 HRS: 9.0N 109.6E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
149. vis0
(if repeat - apologies but worth repeating) Astronaut and climate scientist Piers Sellers dies at 61




on a kind-of related side note


 i beg that science start studying or pay more attention to how a complex planets health is DIRECTLY related to how its "cargo" / contents develope, specifically magnetism//sound/resonances onto complex brains.

When the general public can be shown that what today's (in charge) society that seems to value most things as  property values, wealth saved, monetary things then a connection is presented as to how monetary things loose value in a sick planet then even the greedy will think twice.

How does a sick planet cause loss in monetary value to the general public? (just 1 example)

 If more people act in a "nutty" manner due to the planet they live in being sick, that means crime rates can rise, property values loose. Sadly to study this we need beings with complex brains to be subjected to resonances changes that are generated when the planet is sick.  One such example might be recreated just off shore as with certain water living mammals when they begin acting in a manner where the are not thinking with a type of conscience that allowed their species to evolve their "relatives" or close knit species types  shun them so the mentally unbalanced mammal washes ashore(another costly example is Health issues)

Of course this is just my 2 cents, but lets see how long it takes modern science to figure this out.

My feeling is when in a few years unexplained crime rates rise some of the politicians that cared less as to aGW will use it to defend their backside and THEN link findings as to why crime has risen, specially crazy like  crimes that seem to develope as if the person had no conscience ON ALL levels (usually there is a disconnecting of conscience to create most crimes but some as in stealing bread to feed a family i call a short circuit of conscience crime.
Final Rainfall & Snowfall Totals from NWS San Diego from our 2 storms over the Thur-Sun past.

Snow- 22" at Big Bear Lake, elevation 6,752

Rainfall- 4.24" Lytle Creek

The rest-Link
And the Models saying that we will get an almost identical scenario next weekend, just not as wet. Would be good to dry out for 5 days after getting over 5" of rain at my place the last 2 weeks. Should they materialize, they will be storms 4 and 5 for December in Soo Cal. Stay tuned!

From NWS San Diego Discussion

SYNOPSIS...
A weak high pressure ridge aloft and offshore flow at the surface
will mean dry and warmer days through Thursday. High clouds from a
cut-off low dropping south off the coast may dim the sun at times on
Monday, otherwise mostly clear with periods of gusty northeast winds
near the coastal foothills. By Friday, the cut-off low over the
Pacific, will move over the region with a chance of rain. This will
be followed by a colder trough from the north on Saturday. More
rain and snow showers will be possible then, but the most noticeable
feature with this system looks to be the temperature drop and wind.

By Fri, another cut-off low will approach from the SW and bring
increasing moisture, clouds, and good chance of showers. This system
will not dig as far south as the system last week, but will be
similar in strength and draw north anomalously high PW values ahead
of it. This sets the stage for showers about Fri, but there are still
timing differences in the latest 12Z ECMWF/GFS operational runs.

What follows could be more interesting. Both GFS/EC are dropping
another trough south over CA next Saturday. Latest runs are digging
the system more, and cutting off a low in the base of the trough as
it swings SE into AZ. As depicted now, this would be a very dynamic
system with lots of instability, wind, and limited moisture. This
implies brief, heavy rain/snowfall rates and strong winds. Obviously
worth monitoring as we get closer. In any case, the upcoming storm
pattern has surprising similarities to the systems just last week,
except not as wet.
To make it easier on those who tend to refresh blog pages.
In addition:

chris bertish on his SUP now just south of the Canary Islands and is about to make a due west heading. im guessing british Virgin Islands is his next landfall. a brave soul....
Hope he makes it. I had the pleasure years ago of working with Mick Bird who kayaked from FL to ME and later attempted to solo row around world. Mick told me that the nutrition was incredibly difficult to maintain. In that small craft, Bertish must really have done his homework. Great stuff. Epic.


Quoting 153. islander101010:

chris bertish on his SUP just now just south of the Canary Islands is about to make a due west heading. im guessing british Virgin Islands is his next landfall. a brave soul....
he is making a heading that should favor his westerly course. its always a good feeling paddling with the current and winds.
Quoting 92. washingaway:


Well that does it. For now on the only stars I'll be watching are the ones dancing.


Sorry, I didn't mean to discourage you. I was only trying to be informative. :)

I did an independent study on gravitation while I was in college using the the immense tome called Gravitation. It really makes you think differently about gravity (and Einstein was probably an alien). ;)
Quoting 156. Xyrus2000:



Sorry, I didn't mean to discourage you. I was only trying to be informative. :)

I did an independent study on gravitation while I was in college using the the immense tome called Gravitation. It really makes you think differently about gravity (and Einstein was probably an alien). ;)

Didn't discourage me at all, to the contrary.
Quoting 145. Misanthroptimist:


Yep. I'm trying to make my doctor understand that. I told her, "Look, I'm entering the fourth quarter here. I know how the game turns out: I lose. So, that means I have two basic choices, based on what you are telling me. 1. I can reach the end of the game without the crispy, smoky goodness of bacon, or 2. With the crispy, smoky goodness of bacon. Yeah, I'm going with option 2."

Because if bacon can't take the sting out of dying, then nothing can...and at least I'll have bacon.

Oh, and there was weather of some type here in Central FL. I think it rained a little bit, but I'm not sure since I also think someone spiked the eggnog (in fact, I know it) and I I got a little sleepy.



Good on you !!!!! .....bacon, eggnog & a nap.....sounds like a great Xmas to me !!!!
The record-smashing month of December in Southwest Florida continues. Fort Myers warmed to 88 degrees on Sunday afternoon making it the warmest Christmas Day in the city since 1902 when consistent records began being kept by the National Weather Service.

Christmas Day's temperature reading breaks the previous record high of 87 degrees recorded just one year ago in 2015.

So far this month at least 10 heat-related records have been set between Fort Myers and Naples. Daily record highs were set in Fort Myers on Dec. 4th, 5th, 17th, 18th, 19th, and 24th. Naples set a record high on Dec. 20th and was also dubbed the warmest city in the United States on that day as well.

Also of note this month is that Fort Myers' record high of 91 degrees on Dec. 19th is now the warmest December day on record in Fort Myers and also marks the latest in the year a temperature reading has been able to top 90 degrees.
Rex Tillerson Supposedly Shifted Exxon Mobil’s Climate Position. Except He Really Didn’t.
The oil giant’s transformation on global warming was more rhetorical than anything else.
12/26/2016 05:01 am ET



And unlike many of its industry rivals, Exxon has failed to invest seriously in renewable energy. The company ranked below all of its U.S. and European competitors on reducing emissions and issuing corporate guidance on the risk posed by climate change, according to a November report from the British shareholder advocacy group CDP.

Tillerson has openly mocked the clean-energy industry for years, joking once that he wasn’t “really against renewables” because wind turbine operators bought Exxon’s oil as a lubricant. “The more windmills are built, the more oil we sell,” he said. At a May 2015 shareholders meeting, Tillerson said he hadn’t invested in renewables because “we choose not to lose money.”

Good afternoon/evening. Hope everyone was able to enjoy pleasant and festive days.

Those holidays had been very wet in central Australia:



Uluru closed due to record rain and flash flooding
World-renowned Australian national park off limits 'until further notice' as a deep low-pressure system moves across Northern Territory
The Guardian, Australian Associated Press, Monday 26 December 2016 05.12 GMT
Record-breaking rain and flash flooding closed Uluru national park on Monday until further notice, Parks Australia said.
A deep low-pressure system moved slowly south-east across the Northern Territory during the day, carrying locally destructive winds, heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
"Due to an extreme weather event, Uluru-Kata Tjuta national park has been closed until further notice," Parks Austalia said in a statement. "Our rangers are checking the condition of the roads every hour in a bid to reopen as soon as it is safe to do so." ...

More and a video see link above.

Uluru national park closed, scores shelter from flash floods in Central Australia
ABC, by Neda Vanovac, Updated about 3 hours ago
... A quarter of the community of Kintore was evacuated after it was drenched by 232mm of rain in the 24 hours since 9:00am on Sunday - taking the December total to a record 373.4mm.
61.4mm fell from 8:00pm to 9:00pm on Christmas night alone, which BOM labelled a one-in-50-year rainfall event. ...



Massive low over the region of Uluru yesterday (Dec 25).


Youtube video of the torrential rains at Uluru.
Nock-ten's core remains intact after the impact.



ERIK DE CASTRO / REUTERS
A port worker stands amidst debris swept from the sea at the height of Typhoon Nock Ten in Mabini, Batangas, in the Philippines December 26, 2016. (REUTERS/Erik De Castro)

Typhoon Slams Into Central Philippines, Cutting Off Power
Around 218,000 people fled to evacuation centers after authorities warned of storm surges and flooding in coastal villages and low-lying areas.
12/26/2016 07:58 am ET

By Enrico Dela Cruz

MANILA (Reuters) - A typhoon slammed into central Philippines late on Sunday, bringing strong winds and heavy rains and cutting off power, but there were no immediate reports of casualties, weather officials and radio reports said.

Typhoon Nock-ten was packing maximum sustained winds of 185 kph (115 mph) with gusts up to 255 kph when it made landfall over Catanduanes province, which was under the highest storm alert, on the Bicol peninsula on Sunday evening.

The typhoon made a second landfall over Camarines Sur province, then weakened slightly with winds of 175 kph but gusts at 290 kph, the weather bureau said.

“We continue to pray, stay positive and stay alert. Brownout in a lot of areas already,” Camarines Sur Governor Miguel Luis Villafuerte said in a post on his Instagram account.

Communication lines have been cut in some areas, radio reports said.

Around 218,000 people fled to evacuation centers after authorities warned of storm surges and flooding in coastal villages and low-lying areas.

Nock-ten could make another landfall early on Monday while moving west faster at 20 kph, from 15 kph previously, and crossing the provinces of Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, and Cavite, weather forecasters said.

The typhoon’s eye will be near Metro Manila on Monday afternoon, they said.

Land, sea and air travel has been suspended in some areas, leaving stranded thousands of people heading home for Christmas in the mostly Christian country.

In 2013, more than 6,000 people were killed and 200,000 homes destroyed when TyphoonHaiyan, the strongest-ever storm to make landfall in the Philippines, hit the central islands of Leyte and Samar.

About 20 major typhoons pass through the Philippines each year. Since 1948, at least seven have hit during the Christmas period.



(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Dreamland.

Hope everyone had a great holiday, it was a white Xmas here in Acme Wa, more flakes on the way today. Visited the magical land of crystalline wonder up between Mt Shuksan and Mt Baker. Check out my wunderphotos for more Snow Snow Snow, Ho Ho Ho!