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Super Typhoon Koppu Could Hit Philippines as a Cat 5

By: Jeff Masters 4:13 PM GMT on October 17, 2015

Intensifying Super Typhoon Koppu is pounding the Philippines' eastern Luzon Island with torrential rains as the storm crawls west-northwest at 6 mph. Koppu (called "Lando" locally in the Philippines) could achieve Category 5 status before making landfall between 2 - 6 pm EDT Saturday. At 8 am EDT Saturday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Koppu was a Category 4 super typhoon with top winds of 150 mph, and the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated a central pressure of 930 mb. According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Koppu is the nineteenth Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone this year in the Northern Hemisphere, setting a new record for these most powerful of storms. The previous record was eighteen such storms in 2004. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Koppu had an impressive ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops that extended high into the atmosphere, and a prominent 23-mile diameter eye. The combination of low wind shear, warm ocean waters that extend to great depth and the presence of two impressive upper level outflow channels will support continued intensification right up until landfall. Extreme winds, a large storm surge, and heavy rains are all major threats from Koppu, but it is the storm's rains that will cause most of the storm's destruction. Recent satellite estimates showed Koppu's maximum rainfall rate was likely 20 inches of rain per 24 hours.


Figure 1. Typhoon Koppu as seen by Japan's Himawari satellite on Saturday, October 17, 2015 at 02:19 UTC (10:19 pm EDT Friday.) At the time, Koppu was an intensifying Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB and Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Koppu as seen by Philippines radar at 11:15 am EDT Saturday, October 17, 2015. Image credit: PAGASA.

Forecast for Koppu: an extreme rainfall nightmare
Unfortunately for the Philippines, Koppu is moving very slowly, which will lead to extremely high rainfall rates. Koppu will slow down further after landfall, and spend at least three days over northern Luzon Island. With water temperatures an unusually warm 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F) in the waters surrounding Luzon--about 1°C (1.8°F) above average--the typhoon will be able to pull in tremendous amounts of water vapor from the oceans, resulting in widespread rains of over two feet falling on Luzon Island. More than four feet of rain will likely fall in some mountainous areas, and rainfall amounts of this magnitude are likely to cause devastating flooding. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) Saturday run of the GFS model shows Koppu spending a full five days over Luzon, which would result in even more disastrous rainfall amounts than described here. The capital of Manila (population 12 million) lies right at the edge of where the most extreme rains of at least a foot will fall, so hopefully the monetary damage from the flooding will stay below a billion dollars.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall (inches) for the 24-hour period 2 am EDT Saturday - 2 am EDT Sunday, October 18, 2015, based on satellite-derived rainfall estimates. An area of more than 20 inches of rain in 24 hours (pink colors) was predicted just offshore of the Philippines' Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall amounts from Typhoon Koppu from the 00Z Saturday (8 pm EDT Friday) October 17, 2015 run of the GFDL model. Widespread rainfall amounts in excess of two feet (orange and red colors) were predicted for the Philippines' Luzon Island, north of the capital of Manila. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Best historical analogue for Koppu's rains: the historic rains of August, 2013
The best historical analogue for the rains expected from Koppu may be an extreme monsoon rainfall event on August 18 - 21, 2013, which was enhanced by moisture from Tropical Storm Trami. Up to 600 millimeters (23.5 inches) of rain fell during one 24-hour stretch, and about 60% of metro Manila was under water at one point. At least 27 people died, and damage was estimated at $2.2 billion, making it the Philippines' second most expensive disaster in their history. Another possible analogue: a 1911 typhoon dumped more than 2,200 millimeters (87 inches) of rain in four days in Baguio, in a mountainous region of Luzon Island, according to TWC's Nick Wiltgen.

The top five most expensive disasters in Philippines history, according to EM-DAT (dollar values unadjusted for inflation):

1) Super Typhoon Haiyan, 11/8/2013, $10 billion
2) Monsoon rains increased by Tropical Storm Trami, 8/20/2013, $2.19 billion
3) Super Typhoon Bopha, 12/4/2012, $898 million
4) Super Typhoon Rammasun, 7/15/2014, $821 million
5) Tropical Storm Nina, 9/4/1995, $700 million

Storm chaser James Reynolds is on Luzon, and will be posting updates on his experiences via his Twitter feed.

Elsewhere in the Pacific: Typhoon Champi, Tropical Storm Olaf, and Tropical Cyclone Two
Category 2 Typhoon Champi is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm by Sunday, becoming the Northern Hemisphere's record-setting twentieth Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of 2015. Champi is headed northwest, and will turn to the north and northeast on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday, a weakening Champi may pass close enough to Iwo Jima to bring hurricane-force winds to that island.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Olaf is steadily organizing as it heads west at 12 mph towards Hawaii. Olaf is predicted to reach major hurricane strength by Monday, but will turn to the northwest well before reaching Hawaii, eventually dying in the waters between Hawaii and California more than a week from now. Olaf is not a threat to any land areas.

In the South Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Two, the second tropical cyclone of the 2015 - 2016 season, is expected to dissipate in the waters about 300 miles west of Fiji on Saturday night.


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 92L.

Development of 92L in Gulf of Mexico possible
An area of showers and thunderstorms (Invest 92L) extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through the southern Yucatan Peninsula at 8 am EDT Saturday was associated with an area of low pressure located over central Belize. This low will move slowly west-northwest at about 5 mph, and may emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday. The disturbance's proximity to land, and competition from a separate tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific that NHC is giving 5-day development odds of 80% to, will keep the odds of 92L's development low. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. Moisture from 92L is likely to spread northwards across Texas late in the week, bringing heavy rains.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!
92L is looking good most likely to hit Texas as a depression or storm
It's definitely increasing in intensity per radar.
just downright scary
lol nothing to see here folks XD I love when this happens, I'm sorry. The other night on TWC they had the low at 999 degrees. I died.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 5. George1938:

lol nothing to see here folks XD I love when this happens, I'm sorry. The other night on TWC they had the low at 999 degrees. I died.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


I know right, Holy multiple invests Batman.
Still I wunder,

who'll stop the rain
Quoting 7. Patrap:

Still I wunder,

who'll stop the rain



Ever see it rain on a sunny day?........
Quoting 8. Grothar:



Ever see it rain on a sunny day?........


lives where the sun keeps shining ... through the pouring rain

Actually - cheers
Thanks for the update on horrible Koppu (btw, meaning in Japanese is: "crater" or "cup"), doc.


First peninsula of the east coast of poor Philippines is now in the eyewall. Source.
Quoting 8. Grothar:



Ever see it rain on a sunny day?........


Living a mile from Lake P, and 4 from the Mississippi I've seen it do that every summer at times.

Saw the River flowing North here too..twice, as Storm surge is the inland Kraken dancing in a Maelstrom.
Koppu

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1250 PM EDT SAT 17 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 18/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 18/1615Z
D. 19.5N 93.0W
E. 18/1830Z TO 18/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Quoting 5. George1938:

lol nothing to see here folks XD I love when this happens, I'm sorry. The other night on TWC they had the low at 999 degrees. I died.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
It's a test run for 2030, when we start having those combined El Nino/La Nina things...

:-)
16 active storm advisories? Seems like only a week ago and there was nothing there to report.
Koppu seen from the ISS by a Japanese astronaut:



Kimiya.Yui @Astro_Kimiya
Another typhoon "Koppu"... I am worried about people in the Philippine...
Quoting 6. DogtownMex:



I know right, Holy multiple invests Batman.


It's like, if that was real XD wtf would we do
Quoting 14. sar2401:

It's a test run for 2030, when we start having those combined El Nino/La Nina things...

:-)


Ah yes, La Nino and El Nina.
The Storm Surge North of the Eye will now be tearing inland.

Quoting 21. Patrap:

The Storm Surge North of the Eye will now be tearing inland.




Looks like a major disaster is currently taking place.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1556Z SAT OCT 17 2015

ANALYSTS HAVE ISOLATED AND FIXED THE ISSUE ON THE PRIMARY
SUPERCOMPUTER...OPERATIONS ARE BEING MOVED BACK AS WE BELIEVE IT
IS HEALTHY...DELAYS TO THE 12Z GFS WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR...AS
WILL DELAYS TO MOST OTHER 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...THOUGH SOME
PRODUCTS MAY BE DELAYED A BIT MORE.


The previously sick supercomputer must be the reason it spit out all of the 9XL Computer Hurricane Guidance (click through Previous)
Many of us have friends, family too, in the Philippines. Thanks Doc, very informative on the situation at hand.
Quoting 22. Sfloridacat5:



Looks like a major disaster is currently taking place.


I could not imagine this. I still look at the video from Yolanda aka Hyain or whatever the spelling is. That was what 190mph sustained?
92L ASCAT
Looks like James Reynolds, waiting for Koppu/Lando a bit inland in Maddela, didn't get much sleep:

James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV 41 Min.Vor 41 Minuten Maddela, Cagayan Valley
Howling wind, loud crashes and thumps outside in the darkness #typhoon #LandoPH #Koppu

His interesting twitter feed is here
(scroll down after the first volcano tweet).
Is there any live You Tube feeds for Koppu?
Quoting 20. Naga5000:



Ah yes, La Nino and El Nina.


Nice. Now we have cross-gendered weather events. LOL
This isn't live. All the Wundercams in that area were already taken out this season. Haven't seen any live other than James Reynolds on Periscope. He hasn't been on in 9hrs. They found a good place.

Typhoon lando as of 11am 10-17-15
By:kareenjoyable


Wiltgen said that two computer models “predicted rainfall totals far exceeding 50 inches in the mountains lining the northwestern coast of Luzon” adding that should the storm stall “highly localized rainfall amounts topping nearly 80 inches would not be unrealistic.”

Link
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland about 60 miles west-southwest
of Chetumal, Mexico, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan
Peninsula. While the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined today, significant development is not expected
through tonight while the low moves slowly west-northwestward across
the southern Yucatan peninsula. However, some development is
possible on Sunday or Monday if the low emerges into the southern
Bay of Campeche. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely
produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize, northern
Guatemala, the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeastern Mexico through
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

I know, compared to "Koppu" it's not that important, but for all who are interested in a sequel of the romance of the two swirls off the coast of Portugal: after dancing cheek to cheek this morning the process of mating has begun (*blush*, lol). Below you can see how the clouds of the (former) subtropical cyclone to the right and the cold cut-off swirl to the left (purple color) start to merge. I have never seen something like this since I started to watch those airmass pictures. The little unnamed cyclone brought severe weather with strong winds to the coast of Portugal today. And it isn't gone for good: after completing a loop-the-loop the merged system will be back at the southwestern tip of the Iberian peninsula and will linger there for some days, causing heavy rains in Portugal and Spain. Especially the region of our WU member PlazaRed could be affected. More see in the BBC weather video below.


Saved loop of the last nine hours. Source for updates.

Further floods for Europe
BBC weather video, 17 October 2015 Last updated at 16:59
Heavy rain and flooding has affected parts of Italy and the Balkans this week but now it's the turn of southwest Europe over the next few days.
BBC Weather's Helen Willetts has the latest forecast.
If the system stays weak, it will go into Texas. If it becomes more developed, I see it turning towards the upper Gulf Coast near Louisiana.
I will be honest. I forget a lot about Europe's weather until I actually look lol
Quoting 33. barbamz:

I know, compared to "Koppu" it's not that important, but for all who are interested in a sequel of the romance of the two swirls off the coast of Portugal: after dancing cheek to cheek this morning the process of mating has begun (*blush*, lol). Below you can see how the clouds of the (former) subtropical cyclone to the right and the cold cut-off swirl to the left (purple color) start to merge. I have never seen something like this since I started to watch those airmass pictures. The little unnamed cyclone brought severe weather with strong winds to the coast of Portugal today. And it isn't gone for good: after completing a loop-the-loop the merged system will be back at the southwestern tip of the Iberian peninsula and will linger there for some days, causing heavy rains in Portugal and Spain. Especially the region of our WU member PlazaRed could be affected. More see in the BBC weather video below.


Saved loop of the last nine hours. Source for updates.

Further floods for Europe
BBC weather video, 17 October 2015 Last updated at 16:59
Heavy rain and flooding has affected parts of Italy and the Balkans this week but now it's the turn of southwest Europe over the next few days.
BBC Weather's Helen Willetts has the latest forecast.

Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:

If the system stays weak, it will go into Texas. If it becomes more developed, I see it turning towards the upper Gulf Coast near Louisiana.


I thought this time of year this system near the Yucatan Peninsula will move NE,as the strong fronts are coming down pushing the systems toward NE or Toward Florida, strange year!! for sure>
This is for Cam...

Quoting 8. Grothar:



Ever see it rain on a sunny day?........


Yes. We call it "liquid sunshine", for a lack of anything better to call it.

Landfalling Cat 5, sigh. Mercy on those people, please.
Geoffrey WPB I am practically your neighbor here in wellington Fl. I do believe we have 2- 3 storms left until the season shuts down Remember IDA in 2009-2010 season which was an El Nino year too. There is plenty of Energy still available in the W- NW Caribbean, Southern GOM, and SW Atlantic for Florida to be impacted or the SE Coast for that matter. I am willing to chase a storm if any bloggers are in S. Florida are willing. I suspect there are some extreme Hurricane Chasers in the Phillipines right now
Quoting 37. GeoffreyWPB:

This is for Cam...



Geoffrey if tropical storm is located here it can go into Florida Strengthening because SSTs are plenty warm enough, Case in Point, Koppu rapidly intensified as it came onshore, or while IT was coming ashore. There is absolutelt no reason this couldn't happen unless shear is high
Quoting 11. Patrap:



Living a mile from Lake P, and 4 from the Mississippi I've seen it do that every summer at times.

Saw the River flowing North here too..twice, as Storm surge is the inland Kraken dancing in a Maelstrom.


It was the other part of the song, Pat!!!!!!!!
Quoting 33. barbamz:

I know, compared to "Koppu" it's not that important, but for all who are interested in a sequel of the romance of the two swirls off the coast of Portugal: after dancing cheek to cheek this morning the process of mating has begun (*blush*, lol). Below you can see how the clouds of the (former) subtropical cyclone to the right and the cold cut-off swirl to the left (purple color) start to merge. I have never seen something like this since I started to watch those airmass pictures. The little unnamed cyclone brought severe weather with strong winds to the coast of Portugal today. And it isn't gone for good: after completing a loop-the-loop the merged system will be back at the southwestern tip of the Iberian peninsula and will linger there for some days, causing heavy rains in Portugal and Spain. Especially the region of our WU member PlazaRed could be affected. More see in the BBC weather video below.


Saved loop of the last nine hours. Source for updates.

Further floods for Europe
BBC weather video, 17 October 2015 Last updated at 16:59
Heavy rain and flooding has affected parts of Italy and the Balkans this week but now it's the turn of southwest Europe over the next few days.
BBC Weather's Helen Willetts has the latest forecast.


Thanks for the pictures Barb.
After heavy clouds all morning the rains started at about 4 pm.
I remember a system a bit like this back in about 1994, it rained very heavily during the night and we had about 10 inches total by mid morning.
The local river came up by about 12 feet and the water was 3 feet deep in the house where I was living at the time.
Devastation was total with large boulders placed on river banks washed away, we lost a loaded 20 foot shipping container from the garden, which we later found about 15 miles down river.
It took about 2 years for us to repair the damage and put systems in place to guard against the river entering the property again by bricking up the doors and windows, still in pace to this day 21 years later.
I don't think it will get to that bad stage this time but its that warm south westerly wind direction that causes the problems.
Dost_pagasa
TC Update: as of 01AM today 18Oct2015, TY #LandoPH has made landfall over Casiguran, Aurora (16.2°N, 122.2°E).

Quoting 42. Grothar:



It was the other part of the song, Pat!!!!!!!!


Well it sure is,


Concussions do dat seems.

: }






Quoting 42. Grothar:



It was the other part of the song, Pat!!!!!!!!


Have You Ever Seen The Rain?
Quoting 43. PlazaRed:

Thanks for the pictures Barb.
After heavy clouds all morning the rains started at about 4 pm. ...

Hey Plaza, dear Co-European in here, welcome. Hope it won't get too bad for you. If rains are too strong, please send some north to my place near Frankfurt. Even though it's cold and grey due to a persistent pool of cold air aloft, we didn't get rain worth to speak of the last days (and weeks and months) ...
The Weather Channel warned of a potential "catastrophic flood threat" from a days-long deluge.

Weather Channel senior digital meteorologist Nick Wiltgen predicted "prolific rainfall as it grinds across the mountains and valleys of Luzon ... [which is] home to almost half of the country's 98 million people."

He also predicted that Koppu would trace a "painfully slow and dangerously rainy path" across the island.

"Luzon could be looking at 4 to 6 days of heavy rainfall from Koppu/Lando before what's left of it finally drifts farther north," he wrote. "With rain rates in tropical cyclones typically in excess of 2 inches per hour and additional lift for the moist air provided by Luzon's mountainous terrain, extreme storm totals of 20 to 40 inches are likely across much of northern Luzon."

Wiltgen said that two computer models "predicted rainfall totals far exceeding 50 inches in the mountains lining the northwestern coast of Luzon" adding that should the storm stall "highly localized rainfall amounts topping nearly 80 inches would not be unrealistic."

President Benigno Aquino III appeared on national television Friday to warn Filipinos to prepare for the incoming storm, warning that an estimated 7.5 million people would likely need of assistance during and after the storm.

Aquino has not issued a storm warning on national television since 2013 when Typhoon Haiyan ripped through the country, leaving more than 7,300 people dead and missing in its wake, according to The Associated Press.

"Even in the typhoon-prone Philippines, rainfall amounts exceeding 40 inches from a single typhoon are relatively rare, and always extremely dangerous," Wiltgen added. "Far lower rainfall amounts from past typhoons have proven deadly time and again."

Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones: What's the Difference? 0:43

He said that at least 15 million people live in the area of northern Luzon north of Manila, "many of them in cities with steep hillsides or flood-prone rivers, and in some cases both."

Metro Manila, which is home to around 12 million people, is due to feel the effects of the typhoon in its later phase.

"Over a foot of rain is not out of the question there, and that would also trigger dangerous flash flooding," Wiltgen added.
Elisha Fieldstadt
Elisha Fieldstadt
Jason Cumming
Jason Cumming
Contributors The Associated Press
Topics World, Asia, Asian America, Weather
First Published Oct 16 2015, 3:19 pm ET

Link
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:

If the system stays weak, it will go into Texas. If it becomes more developed, I see it turning towards the upper Gulf Coast near Louisiana.


CenTex hasn't had a drop of rain since TS Bill mid-June - and we're on fire again - the current official line is el Nino is 'too strong' for it to rain, so I have zero faith of a TX landfall, much as we need it. :(
Quoting 47. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Have You Ever Seen The Rain?

How about this one in the night of "Koppu"?

Bad Moon Rising

I see the bad moon arising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

I hear hurricanes blowing
I know the end is coming soon
I fear rivers over flowing
I hear the voice of raze and ruin


Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise
All right ...
Quoting 49. Grothar:

The Weather Channel warned of a potential "catastrophic flood threat" from a days-long deluge.

Weather Channel senior digital meteorologist Nick Wiltgen predicted "prolific rainfall as it grinds across the mountains and valleys of Luzon ... [which is] home to almost half of the country's 98 million people."

He also predicted that Koppu would trace a "painfully slow and dangerously rainy path" across the island.

"Luzon could be looking at 4 to 6 days of heavy rainfall from Koppu/Lando before what's left of it finally drifts farther north," he wrote. "With rain rates in tropical cyclones typically in excess of 2 inches per hour and additional lift for the moist air provided by Luzon's mountainous terrain, extreme storm totals of 20 to 40 inches are likely across much of northern Luzon."

Wiltgen said that two computer models "predicted rainfall totals far exceeding 50 inches in the mountains lining the northwestern coast of Luzon" adding that should the storm stall "highly localized rainfall amounts topping nearly 80 inches would not be unrealistic."

President Benigno Aquino III appeared on national television Friday to warn Filipinos to prepare for the incoming storm, warning that an estimated 7.5 million people would likely need of assistance during and after the storm.

Aquino has not issued a storm warning on national television since 2013 when Typhoon Haiyan ripped through the country, leaving more than 7,300 people dead and missing in its wake, according to The Associated Press.

"Even in the typhoon-prone Philippines, rainfall amounts exceeding 40 inches from a single typhoon are relatively rare, and always extremely dangerous," Wiltgen added. "Far lower rainfall amounts from past typhoons have proven deadly time and again."

Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones: What's the Difference? 0:43

He said that at least 15 million people live in the area of northern Luzon north of Manila, "many of them in cities with steep hillsides or flood-prone rivers, and in some cases both."

Metro Manila, which is home to around 12 million people, is due to feel the effects of the typhoon in its later phase.

"Over a foot of rain is not out of the question there, and that would also trigger dangerous flash flooding," Wiltgen added.
Elisha Fieldstadt
Elisha Fieldstadt
Jason Cumming
Jason Cumming
Contributors The Associated Press
Topics World, Asia, Asian America, Weather
First Published Oct 16 2015, 3:19 pm ET
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This cannot be repeated enough times. These people must be believing that their island is sinking. What a nightmare they must be facing now, and for the days to come soon after as well. I cannot imagine being under such circumstances and I have been through TS Allison and thought that it had dumped a lot of rain. I could not imagine 3 to 4 times as much rainfall as what Allison produced.
Quoting 51. barbamz:


How about this one in the night of "Koppu"?

Bad Moon Rising

I see the bad moon arising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

I hear hurricanes blowing
I know the end is coming soon
I fear rivers over flowing
I hear the voice of raze and ruin


Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise
All right ...



Yes. Bad Moon Rising would fairly describe what is happening there now.
Mumbai, India set new October max temp record of 38.6 C on the 16th at the Santacruz observatory. The previous record was 37.9 C on 23rd Oct, 1972.
This is second consecutive monthly record that the city has broken. On Sept 30th, the max temp was 37.4 C, breaking the old record of 37 C set on 27th Sept, 2014 and the previous one being 36.4 C on 23rd Sept, 1972.
Quoting 50. redwagon:



CenTex hasn't had a drop of rain since TS Bill mid-June - and we're on fire again - the current official line is el Nino is 'too strong' for it to rain, so I have zero faith of a TX landfall, much as we need it. :(


A weak system should creep its way into Texas, but a stronger system should eventually get pulled north. It is extremely rare to get a hurricane to landfall in Texas this time of year (I don't see that happening -except maybe the upper Texas coast near Louisiana).
Quoting 52. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



This cannot be repeated enough times. These people must be believing that their island is sinking. What a nightmare they must be facing now, and for the days to come soon after as well. I cannot imagine being under such circumstances and I have been through TS Allison and thought that it had dumped a lot of rain. I could not imagine 3 to 4 times as much rainfall as what Allison produced.


Those are incredible amounts. I'm sure we all hope they are wrong. But that system is going to move slowly for days.
Quoting 18. Patrap:



The islands about all covered now.
I'm wondering what happens next?
This wind map is for 24 hours from now, not much movement.

Link
Double post
Whoa!!

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/


FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
12Z Euro is worth looking at. That's 992 mb for the people wearing cheater glasses (me)
Quoting 58. Sfloridacat5:


JMA reports it made landfall with the Dvorak intensity at 6.5

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KOPPU (1524)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2015
==============================
Overland Luzon

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Koppu (920 hPa) located at 16.1N 122.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.7N 121.2E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 17.4N 121.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
72 HRS: 18.0N 121.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
Thoughts to all those in the Philippines, they really cannot catch a break. Typhoon Bopha in 2012, Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and now Typhoon Koppu in 2015. To think that there could be worse in the future with rising sea levels and warming waters, to fuel these powerful typhoons, very frightening!
El Dryo,
Quoting 59. Grothar:

Whoa!!

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/


FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


How should that forecast verify if it already made landfall? Did it actually reach 140 kts before landfall?
Quoting 65. fabian171017:



How should that forecast verify if it already made landfall? Did it actually reach 140 kts before landfall?


I don't know, I wasn't there.
Quoting 37. GeoffreyWPB:

This is for Cam...




From where does that depicted system originate?
James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV 2 Min.Vor 2 Minuten Maddela, Cagayan Valley
Wow super #typhoon #LandoPH #Koppu is packed with lightning! Extreme winds, blinding rain lashing us in Maddela, #Philippines
Thanks Doc,
Casiguran, Aurora (Luzon) was the location of the landfall.
So far, it looks like Manila will escape anything catastrophic. Reporting light rain and winds. Manila is on the weakest side of the storm.
Quoting 55. Sfloridacat5:



A weak system should creep its way into Texas, but a stronger system should eventually get pulled north. It is extremely rare to get a hurricane to landfall in Texas this time of year (I don't see that happening -except maybe the upper Texas coast near Louisiana).
The odds are that 92L is not going to become a hurricane. If you were to look at the climatological history of subtropical systems, weak tropical storms, tropical depressions and especially, areas of disturbed weather with tropical origins, you might find that it is not as rare for Texas to be affected this late in the season. Also, hurricanes have hit Texas in October though it is admittedly much less likely to happen than a landfall further east in the Gulf. Every year is different and each season has different circumstances.
Quoting 71. BayFog:

So far, it looks like Manila will escape anything catastrophic. Reporting light rain and winds. Manila is on the weakest side of the storm.
The storm is expected to be over land for 2 days.
Quoting 74. Gearsts:

The storm is expected to be over land for 2 days.




at least 3 days overland Luzon in this forecast.
EP97

Quoting 74. Gearsts:

The storm is expected to be over land for 2 days.

But it's forecast to drift north. The forecast in Manila only calls for light rain. But north of there, one would expect epic flooding, wind and surge.
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:

El Dryo,


Way too soon to render judgment. Strong El Ninos usually get off to a late start. Gotta build up the jet momentum. The signs are already there. I'm guessing the flood gates open after Christmas. After all, it IS called "El Nino" because that's the time of year---Christmas---when it manifests most strongly along the South American West Coast (their summer).
Even More FL DOOM
Since Koppo was stronger then expected, that means it should feel the effects of the trough up north a bit more and should thus be less likely stall.
Quoting 81. weatherbro:

Since Koppo was stronger then expected, that means it should feel the effects of the trough up north a bit more and should thus be less likely stall.
doubt it
WOW LIGHTNING

James Reynolds
‏@EarthUncutTV
Wow super #typhoon #LandoPH #Koppu is packed with lightning! Extreme winds, blinding rain lashing us in Maddela, #Philippines
Quoting 41. WeatherConvoy:


Geoffrey if tropical storm is located here it can go into Florida Strengthening because SSTs are plenty warm enough, Case in Point, Koppu rapidly intensified as it came onshore, or while IT was coming ashore. There is absolutelt no reason this couldn't happen unless shear is high

Also its not 10 days out, not even 200 hours
Graupel and sleet here in Cleveland from Lake Effect...first of the year! Quite an interesting day. Radar shows only rain.
Quoting 62. Envoirment:

Thoughts to all those in the Philippines, they really cannot catch a break. Typhoon Bopha in 2012, Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and now Typhoon Koppu in 2015. To think that there could be worse in the future with rising sea levels and warming waters, to fuel these powerful typhoons, very frightening!


I sincerely think the Philippines are the next failed state due to climate change. They have always been in the bulls eye , but they are not getting hit with the old Pacific storms, this is a new world . And a key component of this storm, is the storm gets stuck , we all know how that worked out for South Carolina.

Calling Dr. Jennifer.

Quoting 85. Krycek1984:

Graupel and sleet here in Cleveland from Lake Effect...first of the year! Quite an interesting day. Radar shows only rain.


"Graupel" .... Could be the best all time weather word in the dictionary.
Quoting 50. redwagon:



CenTex hasn't had a drop of rain since TS Bill mid-June - and we're on fire again - the current official line is el Nino is 'too strong' for it to rain, so I have zero faith of a TX landfall, much as we need it. :(


Last week South Texas got decent rain. Del Rio, which suffers from chronic rain rip off, got 1.62 inches. Uvalde, Eagle Pass, Hondo and Laredo got decent rain. (San Antonio didn't get any). I have no idea if any of this relates to El Nino.
This should be fun to watch...



Quoting 80. Camerooski:

Even More FL DOOM

Cam we have to hope High Pressure holds in the northeast to drive system perpendicular to FL SE coast to have a chance at a strike
Quoting 79. BayFog:


Way too soon to render judgment. Strong El Ninos usually get off to a late start. Gotta build up the jet momentum. The signs are already there. I'm guessing the flood gates open after Christmas. After all, it IS called "El Nino" because that's the time of year---Christmas---when it manifests most strongly along the South American West Coast (their summer).

Wasn't making an El Nino judgement, just on what's left of this storm in SoCal,
which was very dry where I live, .03 was the total.
Quoting 87. ColoradoBob1:



"Graupel" .... Could be the best all time weather word in the dictionary.

Nice and short, considering that is a German word...
02F not going to get a name.. did achieve 40 knots from JTWC though.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
6:00 AM FST October 18 2015
===========================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1004 hPa) located at 18.3S 173.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 16 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Convection has decreased and sheared from low level circulation center. Organization has not improved in the past 6 hours. System lies to the south of an upper ridge in high sheared environment. Outflow fair to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap yields DT 1.5, MET and PT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS

Global models have picked the system and move it southwestward with no further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.6S 173.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 22.1S 174.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Disturbance)
48 HRS 22.9S 176.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Disturbance)

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory from RSMC Nadi on Tropical Depression 02F..
Quoting 91. Gearsts:




I saw that map and thought of the "Grand Banks" Which was a sharp line for centuries where cold and warm waters met. Portuguese sailors were catching cod here before Herny Hudson found his river.



What a mess we have made.
Quoting 54. Vebz25:

Mumbai, India set new October max temp record of 38.6 C on the 16th at the Santacruz observatory. The previous record was 37.9 C on 23rd Oct, 1972.
This is second consecutive monthly record that the city has broken. On Sept 30th, the max temp was 37.4 C, breaking the old record of 37 C set on 27th Sept, 2014 and the previous one being 36.4 C on 23rd Sept, 1972.
Hello Veb.... are you in Mumbai? or somewhere else in India, perchance?
Welcome to the blog, btw ....
Quoting 94. PedleyCA:


Nice and short, considering that is a German word...


English eats all words.
Quoting 80. Camerooski:

Even More FL DOOM
Looks more like NW Bahamas Doom to me .... :o/
Quoting 47. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Have You Ever Seen The Rain?
I just wanna say, the '60s had some of the churchiest non-church music ever ...
just sayin' ....
The old current on the Grand Banks

Link

Quoting 66. Grothar:



I don't know, I wasn't there.


It is like, I was but I won't tell you that to save face... or you.... or the third option is I was drinking all day...
Quoting 14. sar2401:

It's a test run for 2030, when we start having those combined El Nino/La Nina things...

:-)
The scary part is how many of those invests are actual invests .... lol . ..

Quoting 36. Hurricane1956:



I thought this time of year this system near the Yucatan Peninsula will move NE,as the strong fronts are coming down pushing the systems toward NE or Toward Florida, strange year!! for sure>
If you look at the current surface map, you will understand why NE is not the obvious track one would usually expect:

Quoting 90. GeoffreyWPB:

This should be fun to watch...




Fujiwara?
Ut oh .... did I break the bl og ????
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

Ut oh .... did I break the bl og ????


Not that I can Tell
Quoting 75. Grothar:






Like Cody reminded us during Debby - where is TA13, anyway? - the 'squashed spider' look is the result of models latching on to different initialization lows. When the lows get close enough to merge, you see a rapid consolidation and 'clean' model run.
107. beell
97E



Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015

...A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE WILL HELP MAINTAIN WINDS OF NEAR GALE TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE REGION HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THIS LARGER SCALE GYRE. AS TYPICAL WITH CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRES...THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN LIFTED FURTHER NORTHWARD AND SW MONSOONAL FLOW HAS INCREASED. THIS ENHANCED MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE INTERACTION OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITHIN THIS LARGER SCALE GYRE...S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...



"Tehuantepecer"/Wiki

THE EFFECTS OF GAP WIND INDUCED VORTICITY ON TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS/Heather M. Holbach and Mark A. Bourassa *
Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida-2012


One issue not discussed in this paper is the potential for a sudden decrease in SST's associated with strong upper-ocean mixing. Some literature suggests this could be as much as 8°C. Could be a short-term factor for 97E.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON LANDO
5:00 AM PhST October 18 2015
====================
Typhoon LANDO has made landfall over Casiguran, Aurora and has remained almost stationary

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lando [KOPPU] (948 hPa) located at 15.9N 121.8E or in the vicinity of Casiguran Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #4
Very heavy damage to high-risk structures
Heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
Moderate damage to low-risk structures.
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows.
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged.
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation.
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.

Luzon Region
============
1. Aurora

Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures.
Light damage to low-risk structures.
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's). some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Isabela
2. Quirino
3. Nueva Vizcaya
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Ifugao
6. Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea ) 4.1-14.0m Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands
2. Benguet
3. Mt. Province
4. Kalinga
5. Apayao
6. Pangasinan
7. Tarlac
8. Pampanga
9. Bulacan
10. Rizal
11. rest of Quezon
12. Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Zambales
2. Ilocos Norte
3. Ilocos Sur
4. La Union
5. Abra
6. Camarines Norte
7. Bataan
8. Cavite
9. Laguna
10. Batangas
11. Batanes


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Occasional rains and gusty winds will be experienced over provinces under PSWS #1 while those under PSWS #2, #3 and #4 will have stormy weather. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Storm surge may reach to a maximum of 3 - 4 meters in Aurora and neighboring provinces.

Wave height in open sea may reach up to 14 meters or higher.
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

Ut oh .... did I break the bl og ????

No, you didn't, Baha. Hope you're about to enjoy a balmy tropical night on your island.
I'm out now in my cold German night (although without any "Graupel", lol), but not before delivering a last southern hemispherical heatwave ;-) Good night, everyone!

Near-Record Heat in Sweltering Rio de Janeiro
World | Agence France-Presse | Updated: October 17, 2015 07:34 IST
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

Ut oh .... did I break the bl og ????


WU: Don't go breakin my blog

Baha: I won't go breakin your blog

WU: Don't go breakin my, don't go breakin my

Baha: I won't go breaking your blooooo----ooooog


Earworm free of charge! :) Like the inmates weren't already rattling their cages.
Quoting 99. BahaHurican:

Looks more like NW Bahamas Doom to me .... :o/

Go further into run and it goes straight into S FL
Quoting 92. WeatherConvoy:


Cam we have to hope High Pressure holds in the northeast to drive system perpendicular to FL SE coast to have a chance at a strike

This is the system was suppose to form and go to Bermuda, now it says S FL...hmmm
113. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN US WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FL. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO N FL NEAR 30N83W TO 29N90W TO 28N97W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR WITH NO CONVECTION. AN ONGOING TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF IN THE FORM OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MIAMI TO 25N87W TO 24N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HELPING TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. A MONSOON GYRE WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N89W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE US AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MONSOON GYRE SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE SW GULF AND IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF THE MONSOON GYRE. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE MONSOON GYRE LOW DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE SW GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF AS WELL. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Link
Quoting 110. redwagon:
WU: Don't go breakin my blog --- Baha: I won't go breakin your blog ...

Oh boy, a lot of earworms from my youth around lately, love it!
BTW, Pedley, if you're still around: special thanks for the link to this Peggy Lee song some days ago ("Is that all there is?") Didn't know it until then, I have to confess, but now I know it by heart already.

Daylight approaching for the W-Pac typhoons. Guess the people in the Philippines are more than thankful for that!


Quoting 112. nygiants:


This is the system was suppose to form and go to Bermuda, now it says S FL...hmmm


CMC shows a South Florida landfall at 180 hours. If it was any other model than the CMC, people would be in full scale Alert mode. But seeing that it is the CMC, the probability of it happening drops to almost 0%.
108. Not to distract from the seriousness of the situation, but does that say Typhoon Lando?
Quoting 116. CybrTeddy:

108. Not to distract from the seriousness of the situation, but does that say Typhoon Lando?
Thats the name in Asia. Koppu is Americanized
118. beell
Quoting 116. CybrTeddy:

108. Not to distract from the seriousness of the situation, but does that say Typhoon Lando?


JTWC=Lando.

A while ago, it was Sea-o
)
Quoting 117. Camerooski:

Thats the name in Asia. Koppu is Americanized

Not exactly, Cam. "Koppu" is the international name, taken from this official Asian list for storms in their part of the world ("Koppu" was contributed by Japan). But the Philippines always name storms which would affect their country with a different name by their own.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 115. Sfloridacat5:



CMC shows a South Florida landfall at 180 hours. If it was any other model than the CMC, people would be in full scale Alert mode. But seeing that it is the CMC, the probability of it happening drops to almost 0%.


cmc 2015101712 Forecast 850vort Java Animation
18z GFS is also picking up on the system in the Atlantic.
122...18z forms it and takes it up and out.
Quoting 121. GeoffreyWPB:



cmc 2015101712 Forecast 850vort Java Animation


It looks like it has its target set right on Miami.
Quoting 123. GeoffreyWPB:

122...18z forms it and takes it up and out.


GFS looks like it could be a threat to Bermuda. But we know how well the GFS did with the last system in the Atlantic.
From a Carolina landfall to a near miss in Bermuda last time. This time could be the opposite?
129. beell
Quoting 122. Sfloridacat5:

18z GFS is also picking up on the system in the Atlantic.



GFS has been on this for a while. Appears to form on a segment of the frontal boundary and supported by upper diffluence. Decent potential for a sub-trop. No clue w/the NAVGEM.

Sketched this up the other day but decided to give ya'll a break and not post.

This frame is 700 mb from the 10/13 06Z. Valid this Wednesday.

Quoting 117. Camerooski:

Thats the name in Asia. Koppu is Americanized
Nope. Lando is Philippines [PAGASA]; Koppu is rest of Asia [JMA]. Philippines assigns its own names to any storms that impact its islands.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



GFS looks like it could be a threat to Bermuda. But we know how well the GFS did with the last system in the Atlantic.
From a Carolina landfall to a near miss in Bermuda last time. This time could be the opposite?
I for one don't automatically discount the GFS because it missed one storm.

But then I take all the models in their individuality with a grain of salt. I'm more of a consensus model user ....
I'm going to get some werking heads to help me build a Model Tutorial Page and publish it in a off season blog entry.


We need it .



134. beell
If you're interested, go here and run the full 700 mb loop from today's 18Z
Interesting beell
At the end of the 18z GFS model, another strong low forms and moves NE towards FL
Quoting 85. Krycek1984:

Graupel and sleet here in Cleveland from Lake Effect...first of the year! Quite an interesting day. Radar shows only rain.

Sleet??? This early? I didn't think that was possible given the warmth of the lake. Graupel maybe, from a thunderstorm.
I assume the gfs and cmc are forming that feature on the east side of the sat. loop...

Did anyone other than me just see that MSU-Mich game ending OMG 0_0
141. beell
Quoting 139. GeoffreyWPB:

I assume the gfs and cmc are forming that feature on the east side of the sat. loop...




I think it forms along the frontal boundary (visible on your loop) that is currently located across the tip of FL and extending to the NE-which will continue to slowly sag to the SE over the ATL. Upper trough in the area to "ventilate" the low levels.


700 mb-valid @ 96 hrs


200 mb-valid @ 96 hrs
Quoting 116. CybrTeddy:

108. Not to distract from the seriousness of the situation, but does that say Typhoon Lando?


LOL you only just noticed? Some bounty hunter you ;)
Quoting 103. BahaHurican:

The scary part is how many of those invests are actual invests .... lol . ..

If you look at the current surface map, you will understand why NE is not the obvious track one would usually expect:

Fujiwara?



Kinda a funny swap....you take mine and I'll take your blob
Dear John Q. Houstonian:

Will Invest 92L bring "catastrophic" flooding to Texas, with the hardest hit area being Houston?
Quoting 138. hydrus:




THAT, Sir, is an eye-opening graph.
146. beell
Quoting 144. pureet1948:

Dear John Q. Houstonian:

Will Invest 92L bring "catastrophic" flooding to Texas, with the hardest hit area being Houston?


Yes. You should evacuate the blog and Texas immediately.
(j/k)

;-]
Quoting 139. GeoffreyWPB:

I assume the gfs and cmc are forming that feature on the east side of the sat. loop...


Similar to Joaquin, I guess.
EDIT: Except with a trough instead of an old tropical wave ...
Duplicate deleted
Quoting 146. beell:



Yes. You should evacuate the blog and Texas immediately.
(j/k)

;-]


Well, I don't know about evacuation, but our weather forecasters aren't just concerned about 92L, they're VERY concerned. With good reason. Accuweather estimates winds will be near 30mph. Should we get a tropical storm, or, god forbid, a HURRICANE....well, who knows?

I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles, thank god.
Quoting 141. beell:



I think it forms along the frontal boundary (visible on your loop) that is currently located across the tip of FL and extending to the NE-which will continue to slowly sag to the SE over the ATL. Upper trough in the area to "ventilate" the low levels.


700 mb-valid @ 96 hrs


200 mb-valid @ 96 hrs
So, beell ... guess u r not biting re: the Fujiwara potential with our invest pair ....
151. txjac
Quoting 137. BayFog:


Sleet??? This early? I didn't think that was possible given the warmth of the lake. Graupel maybe, from a thunderstorm.


Grew up in Ohio, right almost on the lake.
I remember a football game in October where it snowed. Had to have been around 78-80.
Quoting 148. SubtropicalHi:

Here's the real honest to goodness proof that El Nino has reached Southern CA:

Blame El Niño for poisonous sea snake found on Ventura County beach



For the first time in 30 years or so, a poisonous sea snake has been spotted on a Southern California beach, drawn far north of its usual habitat by what naturalists think are the warming ocean waters because of El Niño.

A yellow-bellied sea snake, Pelamis platurus, was found Friday at the high tide line at Silverstrand Beach in Ventura County by a surfer, according to officials at the Heal the Bay organization and the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County
Link
153. txjac
Quoting 149. pureet1948:



Well, I don't know about evacuation, but our weather forecasters aren't just concerned about 92L, they're VERY concerned. With good reason. Accuweather estimates winds will be near 30mph. Should we get a tropical storm, or, god forbid, a HURRICANE....well, who knows?

I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles, thank god.


Just curious, how long have you lived in Houston?
154. txjac
Quoting 149. pureet1948:



Well, I don't know about evacuation, but our weather forecasters aren't just concerned about 92L, they're VERY concerned. With good reason. Accuweather estimates winds will be near 30mph. Should we get a tropical storm, or, god forbid, a HURRICANE....well, who knows?

I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles, thank god.



Accuweather forecast
Link

Potential Tropical Development in Gulf Could Spell Heavy Rain for Southeast

Saying heavy rain and to keep an eye on it.

Seems like someone has rung the fire alarm before the fire could even get started...
Quoting 154. txjac:




Accuweather forecast
Link

Potential Tropical Development in Gulf Could Spell Heavy Rain for Southeast

Saying heavy rain and to keep an eye on it.




But TWC says Texas impacts highly likely; probable TC, too.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/gulf -tropical-development-possible-oct2015
157. beell
Quoting 150. BahaHurican:

So, beell ... guess u r not biting re: the Fujiwara potential with our invest pair ....


Just to be clear, Baja-which Invest pair are we talking about.
92L/97E? If so, no. They are both part and parcel of the gyre-with 97L winning the dominance contest. ADDED: Hence, no dance. 92L will bring some weather but may get scooped up by the incoming shortwave.
(subject to change w/o notice)
158. txjac
Quoting 156. pureet1948:



But TWC says Texas impacts highly likely; probable TC, too.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/gulf -tropical-development-possible-oct2015


You seem to think that a TC is going to be devastating. If I remember correctly, from one of Grothar or Pat's posts, there was one, count them one, model pointing our way. Its gonna be okay, even if it does come this way it wont be devastation

How did you fare with Bill?
Quoting 121. GeoffreyWPB:



cmc 2015101712 Forecast 850vort Java Animation
South FL
Quoting 153. txjac:



Just curious, how long have you lived in Houston?


I'll tell you one thing, forty years of wrestling with that joke of a power company we've got down here whenever bad weather pulls the plug on my house is forty years too many!
Quoting 138. hydrus:


I note both of us remain in the cool, dry part of the country. I'm waiting for the "wet" part of El Nino to kick in.
162. beell
Quoting 149. pureet1948:



Well, I don't know about evacuation, but our weather forecasters aren't just concerned about 92L, they're VERY concerned. With good reason. Accuweather estimates winds will be near 30mph. Should we get a tropical storm, or, god forbid, a HURRICANE....well, who knows?

I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles, thank god.


The folks at HGX are definitely watching with their usual progressive and measured discussions over the last three days. They are not in full-alert mode yet.

A TS is certainly possible. Heavy rains are probable. We could certainly use some rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PD ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...OR RE-DEVELOPS JUST INLAND OR ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER COAST AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS AND GOOD INFLOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND ALLOW FOR A BOOST TO THE ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 33

(ps. i'm in Houston :) )
Quoting 149. pureet1948:



Well, I don't know about evacuation, but our weather forecasters aren't just concerned about 92L, they're VERY concerned. With good reason. Accuweather estimates winds will be near 30mph. Should we get a tropical storm, or, god forbid, a HURRICANE....well, who knows?

I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles, thank god.
Don't forget about plywood. And an axe, just in case you need to chop through the ceiling to get to the attic as the water rises.
Quoting 162. beell:



The folks at HGX are definitely watching with their usual progressive and measured discussions over the last three days. They are not in full-alert mode yet.

A TS is certainly possible. Heavy rains are probable. We could certainly use some rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PD ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...OR RE-DEVELOPS JUST INLAND OR ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER COAST AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS AND GOOD INFLOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND ALLOW FOR A BOOST TO THE ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 33

(ps. i'm in Houston :))



Increasing winds, he says? How many MPH if no TS?
165. txjac
Quoting 160. pureet1948:



I'll tell you one thing, forty years of wrestling with that joke of a power company we've got down here whenever bad weather pulls the plug on my house is forty years too many!


Yea, but with the beautiful weather we have been having lately we'd be okay with a day or two without electric. Dont think it will come to that though.
Quoting 152. SubtropicalHi:



Water temps are running 10 degrees above normal at Scripps in La Jolla. More incredibly, the local fleet are catching Wahoo only 30 minutes out of Dana Pt. in Orange County.
Quoting 165. txjac:



Yea, but with the beautiful weather we have been having lately we'd be okay with a day or two without electric. Dont think it will come to that though.



Hurricane Ike left me in the dark for 14 days. And then anytime I called them to find out if they were going to do anything about all I got was nothing but a bunch of excuses. What a way to run a railroad!
169. txjac
Quoting 167. pureet1948:




Hurricane Ike left me in the dark for 14 days. And then anytime I called them to find out if they were going to do anything about all I got was nothing but a bunch of excuses. What a way to run a railroad!


Ike, yea, I can understand and relate. Lost both water and electric. However whats out there, even if it comes this way shouldn't be an Ike. As all weather reporters are telling us, just keep and eye on it. Extra case of water, tuna, canned chicken, beans, etc ...these are things that are probably already on your shelf. I always buy them at the start of the season ...don't need them then I break in to them in November
170. beell
Quoting 164. pureet1948:




Increasing winds, he says? How many MPH if no TS?


If you want to be all Boy Scout prepared-just in case.
I'd prepare for 30 knots (35 mph) with gusts to 40 knots (46 mph) on Friday-generally speaking.

And keep in mind, you're hearing this from some guy on the internecks.
Quoting 137. BayFog:


Sleet??? This early? I didn't think that was possible given the warmth of the lake. Graupel maybe, from a thunderstorm.


Not all that uncommon here in Cleveland in mid to late October. I remember many a sleet-filled Halloween's growing up (I'm 31). When I lived East of the city from 2007-2013, October or November were the prime times to get lightning/thunder from Lake Effect bands. The warmth of Lake Erie only serves to enhance these events. It freezes early, though.
the Florida navel glazers

I hope you lose your fresh water first, Then your home is worth zero.
Quoting 169. txjac:



Ike, yea, I can understand and relate. Lost both water and electric. However whats out there, even if it comes this way shouldn't be an Ike. As all weather reporters are telling us, just keep and eye on it. Extra case of water, tuna, canned chicken, beans, etc ...these are things that are probably already on your shelf. I always buy them at the start of the season ...don't need them then I break in to them in November


Not an Ike, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Cat 2 blow (120 mph). That'd be just as bad.
I've seen stronger thunderstorms




Awaiting the 00Z run shortly, as this frame will update when the update frame loads.



NOLA/Slidell NWS aft disco,
Long term... 
mild and dry weather should continue through middle week as upper
level ridge axis builds over region and sharp upper level trough
develops over the SW United States. Ovrnight lows will moderate as
low level flow becomes east and southeast and moisture increases.
European model (ecmwf) and GFS have continue to forecast upper trough/short wave
from SW US system moving northeast across Texas into lower MS valley
Friday into Sunday...with moisture/low pressure being drawn northward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. European model (ecmwf) remains the most aggressive
with this scenario with the GFS a faster with more of an open
upper short wave structure. Will continue to monitor...but
certainly higher probability of precipitation in order for later week and weekend as
Gulf of Mexico moisture begins to stream northward. Have
maintained current rain chances on Friday and Saturday with
possible increase likely on Sunday. 21
Quoting 163. sar2401:

Don't forget about plywood. And an axe, just in case you need to chop through the ceiling to get to the attic as the water rises.
or a lifejacket ;)
Koppu

Quoting 170. beell:



If you want to be all Boy Scout prepared-just in case.
I'd prepare for 30 knots (35 mph) with gusts to 40 knots (46 mph) on Friday-generally speaking.

And keep in mind, you're hearing this from some guy on the internecks.



Everybody watch their Texas Sage blooming - none yet - and animals: I've had every creature under this blazing sun come inside recently, including snakes. Again, I have very little faith in a TX solution.
Quoting 173. pureet1948:



Not an Ike, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Cat 2 blow (120 mph). That'd be just as bad.
last time I checked 120 mph is a cat 3.... But I wouldn't just prepare for a Cat 3. I would prepare for a remake of Super Typhoon Haiyan 2.0 slamming into TEXAS, and then stalling over your house for 4 days. Then fire tornado engulfs your neighborhood, and then a Noah's Ark esc. flood comes to TX, and Jesus comes down to rescue you. Better get the plywood.
Quoting 180. GeoffreyWPB:





Quoting 173. pureet1948:



Not an Ike, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Cat 2 blow (120 mph). That'd be just as bad.
The highest winds you can get in a category 2 would be 110 mph. 120 mph winds would be right in the middle of those caused by a category 3. Since 1950, only one hurricane has affected Houston in late October, Juan, in 1985. It was a category 1. How did that affect Houston?
sar...why are you falling for this?
Quoting 171. Krycek1984:



Not all that uncommon here in Cleveland in mid to late October. I remember many a sleet-filled Halloween's growing up (I'm 31). When I lived East of the city from 2007-2013, October or November were the prime times to get lightning/thunder from Lake Effect bands. The warmth of Lake Erie only serves to enhance these events. It freezes early, though.
I lived in Cleveland as a kid in the 50's. We had one Halloween when we had enough snow and wind I actually decided getting more candy wasn't worth it, so you know it was bad. :-)
Quoting 182. Camerooski:

last time I checked 120 mph is a cat 3.... But I wouldn't just prepare for a Cat 3. I would prepare for a remake of Super Typhoon Haiyan 2.0 slamming into TEXAS, and then stalling over your house for 4 days. Then fire tornado engulfs your neighborhood, and then a Noah's Ark esc. flood comes to TX, and Jesus comes down to rescue you. Better get the plywood.



I'm looking for a remake of Texas's October Hurricane of 1949. Anyone know what I'm talkin' about?
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

Seems like someone has rung the fire alarm before the fire could even get started...


Have that problem on campus a lot. One building last year had 23 false fire alarms. Everyone evacuates every time (if you don't, it's a $250 fine).

Quoting 137. BayFog:


Sleet??? This early? I didn't think that was possible given the warmth of the lake. Graupel maybe, from a thunderstorm.


Radar was picking up what looked like lake effect snows too. Deep cold front, NWS seemed impressed by the strength of it in their discussions.

Quoting 132. BahaHurican:

I for one don't automatically discount the GFS because it missed one storm.

But then I take all the models in their individuality with a grain of salt. I'm more of a consensus model user ....


I take my salt with a grain of models. :)

Quoting 106. redwagon:



Like Cody reminded us during Debby - where is TA13, anyway? - the 'squashed spider' look is the result of models latching on to different initialization lows. When the lows get close enough to merge, you see a rapid consolidation and 'clean' model run.


Well since Cody is now a college freshman, he's probably at a party or something. :-)
Quoting 185. GeoffreyWPB:

sar...why are you falling for this?
For the same reason you just posted that last model run graphic.
I've already stocked up on bottled water and candles...
In my experience, storm-prep bottled water and candles are best supplemented by cash in my pocket, red wine and real dark chocolate.
:)

I hope all Texas sees is wind and rain. Not able to picture anything "organized" on TX coast in the 20s of October. Louisiana eastward, yeah maybe.

source: zelda (No, not that one!)
Quoting 184. sar2401:

The highest winds you can get in a category 2 would be 110 mph. 120 mph winds would be right in the middle of those caused by a category 3. Since 1950, only one hurricane has affected Houston in late October, Juan, in 1985. It was a category 1. How did that affect Houston?



We had a lot of wind and rain from that one. Yeah, it was Category 1, but the winds from that bad guy were blowing so hard I couldn't hear my voice.
From experience I can tell one easily that you will exhaust yourself quickly swinging a ax in rising water in a small Attic space. A 20Volt lithium circular saw is a much better way.

But if you stayed in a evac ordered surge zone for a Major.

Your already a idiot most likely.

: P
Quoting 186. sar2401:

I lived in Cleveland as a kid in the 50's. We had one Halloween when we had enough snow and wind I actually decided getting more candy wasn't worth it, so you know it was bad. :-)


You'd be surprised what the city has become...downtown and surrounding areas are great. I work downtown. About to go out now downtown...got the big coat out and febreezed it...lol
195. beell
Quoting 174. Grothar:
I've seen stronger thunderstorms




'stirring up billows in a ladle'
~Cicero

Netherlands version is 'a sotrm in a glass of water'
Hungarian-'tempest in a potty'.
English (1678)-'a storm in a cream bowl'
USA-'Tempest in a teapot'
https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1055793231110 924&set=gm.1057121410979312&type=3&refsrc=https%3A %2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Fphoto.php&_rdr#_=_
I hope this works. Happy Saturday bloggers!
Quoting 186. sar2401:

I lived in Cleveland as a kid in the 50's. We had one Halloween when we had enough snow and wind I actually decided getting more candy wasn't worth it, so you know it was bad. :-)


My mother, father, and my uncle all attended Case Western in Cleveland, they remember a few good snowstorms in October. Definitely the time of year.

Quoting 188. pureet1948:




I'm looking for a remake of Texas's October Hurricane of 1949. Anyone know what I'm talkin' about?


Cat 2 of 110 at peak, 11' surge, 14" of rain. Moderate damage except to the rice crop, where there was heavy loss. Link Formed in September. Light damage in Houston. All from that Wiki link.
Quoting 190. sar2401:

For the same reason you just posted that last model run graphic.


Great Scott!

Quoting 173. pureet1948:



Not an Ike, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Cat 2 blow (120 mph). That'd be just as bad.
Okay, it's not impossible ... just seems relatively unlikely for Houston after 1 October. Seems to me if anything does get going it'll stay relatively disorganized .... like beell has been pointing out, rain impacts are the likely effect, and if the system continues inland with sufficient rain to douse those fires y'all have raging, the event might be an overall positive.

Still have, what 5 days to potential impact? There's lots of time in there to adjust / tweak if you need to prepare for something more dangerous.
Quoting 195. beell:



'stirring up billows in a ladle'
~Cicero

Netherlands version is 'a sotrm in a glass of water'
Hungarian-'tempest in a potty'.
English (1678)-'a storm in a cream bowl'
USA-'Tempest in a teapot'


May I have something to drink please. - Socrates.
Quoting 189. Astrometeor:



Have that problem on campus a lot. One building last year had 23 false fire alarms. Everyone evacuates every time (if you don't, it's a $250 fine).



Radar was picking up what looked like lake effect snows too. Deep cold front, NWS seemed impressed by the strength of it in their discussions.



I take my salt with a grain of models. :)



Well since Cody is now a college freshman, he's probably at a party or something. :-)
LOL .... this is a SUPER post ..... [very big grin]
Hurricane Juan here in 85' had caskets popping out the cemetery plots down in Lafitte, La.





Quoting 197. Astrometeor:



My mother, father, and my uncle all attended Case Western in Cleveland, they remember a few good snowstorms in October. Definitely the time of year.



Cat 2 of 110 at peak, 11' surge, 14" of rain. Moderate damage except to the rice crop, where there was heavy loss. Link Formed in September. Light damage in Houston. All from that Wiki link.


Light damage? Like, how light?
Speaking of evacuation....Just had a practice evacuation of my building on Thursday...1700 people leaving a 45 story building in 21 minutes. 400 non participants.
The only storm surge video I use in presentations.

The Guerra Family, Chalmette, La. Katrina



Quoting 200. Grothar:



May I have something to drink please. - Socrates.
"Here you go."
[glug glug]

[choke choke]

"In the sweet... bye and bye .... we shall meet on that beautiful shore ...."
Quoting 205. Patrap:

The only storm surge video I use in presentations.

The Guerra Family, Chalmette, La, Katrina









I can't watch this more than once a year [viewed it again with the Katrina anniversary this year]. This makes chills go up and down my spine.

I'm hearing stories that the flooding in central Long Island with Joaquin was as bad. Storm surge up to the top of the first floor in several settlements [basically villages].
Indeed Joaquin had really bad surge flooding over there baha, as I read a few situ reports on the reliefweb site a few days back.

Was eerily similar...save for the duration there.
Quoting 194. Krycek1984:



You'd be surprised what the city has become...downtown and surrounding areas are great. I work downtown. About to go out now downtown...got the big coat out and febreezed it...lol
I still have family there and visit every couple of years. It's my considered opinion that downtown gentrification and replacing Higbee's with a casino is not enough to save Cleveland, even if winter never happened again.
Quoting 196. cynyc2:

https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=105579323111 0 924&set=gm.1057121410979312&type=3&ref src=https%3A %2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Fphoto.php&_rdr#_=_
I hope this works. Happy Saturday bloggers!
Unfortunately, no. Try saving the picture to your hard drive first and then uploading.
Quoting 203. pureet1948:



Light damage? Like, how light?


$6.7 million in 1949 dollars. According to a CPI calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, that would be approximately $67 million today. CPI calculator

Edit: That's total damage for the storm. I don't know the breakdown between economic losses from the rice to damage to the city of Houston.
Quoting 137. BayFog:


Sleet??? This early? I didn't think that was possible given the warmth of the lake. Graupel maybe, from a thunderstorm.


If it's cold enough aloft you can get sleet and snow even with warm lake waters. But it has to be really cold. The critical rain/snow 850mb temperature in mid October with climatological lake temperature is about -6 to -7C whereass in midwinter it is about -1 to -2C. 850mb temps over western Lake Erie were about -6C this morning and -7 to -8C over the eastern lake. The 540DM rule for 1000-500mb thickness also breaks down with a warm boundary layer.. thicknesses over the lake were around 525dm. That's typically marginal for snow with a warm lake.

In the Pacific Northwest in winter the critical thicknesses are around 518-525DM. Its so much higher over the winter continent (540-546DM or more] because the boundary layer is cold or at least not much warmer than the air aloft so snow can survive to low levels or the surface.

Short answer.. if the airmass is cold enough you can get snow even with a warm lake and some of the most epic snow events have happened in October or early November with arctic air and immense evaporation from the warm lake which then precipitates out as snow just downwind of the lake.

Quoting 209. Patrap:

Indeed Joaquin had really bad surge flooding over there baha, as I read a few situ reports on the reliefweb site a few days back.

Was eerily similar...save for the duration there.
IMO it wouldn't have been as bad if the storm had been moving faster. The long duration kept the water high and kept building on the original surge due to the onshore winds. The last few times there has been bad flooding in the area, it was due to fresh water [i.e. heavy rainfall]. Long Island is vulnerable because many of the residential areas are along the shallow low-lying west coast, which lies along the eastern edge of the Great Bahama Bank and Exuma Sound.
Quoting 187. Patrap:









92L will be a tropical storm in 120 hours?
216. vis0

Quoting 133. Patrap:

I'm going to get some werking heads to help me build a Model Tutorial Page and publish it in a off season blog entry.


We need it .




too soon??? (zilly blog pg4 cmmnt#160
https://scontent.fsnc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1 /v/t35.0-12/12168810_1055634697793444_591205647_o. jpg?efg=eyJpIjoibCJ9&oh=ceb1deb2d48b5e63cb1a8bf9d8 0bdec8&oe=562533CF did it work this time? Sorry I can't post the image.
https://scontent.fsnc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1 /v/t35.0-12/12168810_1055634697793444_591205647_o. jpg?efg=eyJpIjoibCJ9&oh=ceb1deb2d48b5e63cb1a8bf9d8 0bdec8&oe=562533CF
Quoting 212. Astrometeor:



$6.7 million in 1949 dollars. According to a CPI calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, that would be approximately $67 million today. CPI calculator

Edit: That's total damage for the storm. I don't know the breakdown between economic losses from the rice to damage to the city of Houston.


Final comment for me on the 1949 hurricane. From news reports from that month, damage in the city was light. Only a few broken windows, some strewn debris, and a few trees down. Nothing noteworthy in the city. The big headline seems to be that the rice crop took a huge hit. Story in the Spokane (washington) Daily.
Quoting 213. georgevandenberghe:



If it's cold enough aloft you can get sleet and snow even with warm lake waters. But it has to be really cold. The critical rain/snow 850mb temperature in mid October with climatological lake temperature is about -6 to -7C whereass in midwinter it is about -1 to -2C. 850mb temps over western Lake Erie were about -6C this morning and -7 to -8C over the eastern lake. The 540DM rule for 1000-500mb thickness also breaks down with a warm boundary layer.. thicknesses over the lake were around 525dm. That's typically marginal for snow with a warm lake.

In the Pacific Northwest in winter the critical thicknesses are around 518-525DM. Its so much higher over the winter continent (540-546DM or more] because the boundary layer is cold or at least not much warmer than the air aloft so snow can survive to low levels or the surface.

Short answer.. if the airmass is cold enough you can get snow even with a warm lake and some of the most epic snow events have happened in October or early November with arctic air and immense evaporation from the warm lake which then precipitates out as snow just downwind of the lake.



Let's not forget about thundersnow associated with lake effect. Saw it while I went to school at Oswego State.
Quoting 219. Astrometeor:



Final comment for me on the 1949 hurricane. From news reports from that month, damage in the city was light. Only a few broken windows, some strewn debris, and a few trees down. Nothing noteworthy in the city. The big headline seems to be that the rice crop took a huge hit. Story in the Spokane (washington) Daily.



90 mph winds. Still enough to bring down power lines. Hope that's not what we get from 92L.
Koppu on Himawari. Click pic for rapid scan.
Quoting 222. Skyepony:



Should I worry?
James Reynolds came across some people fishing in Koppu.
Quoting 224. pureet1948:


Should I worry?

It's huge and having a hard time consolidating over land. Parts of Central America should worry about flooding.
Quoting 226. Camerooski:

yes you should evacuate now.

This is not a place for that kind of joke!! Evacuation is serious business and you are NOT qualified to be making such comments.
Quoting 218. cynyc2:

https://scontent.fsnc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap 1 /v/t35.0-12/12168810_1055634697793444_591205647_o. jpg?efg=eyJpIjoibCJ9&oh=ceb1deb2d48b5e63cb1a8b f9d8 0bdec8&oe=562533CF
You can only post an image with the file name ending in .jpg (or. jpeg), .gif, or .png. You can't post any photo with a an "s" in the "http" part. You can usually delete the "s" part if you preview first and then edit. If you will just put up a link to where the picture is, I'll take a look at it and see if I can make it work.
Quoting 218. cynyc2:

https://scontent.fsnc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap 1 /v/t35.0-12/12168810_1055634697793444_591205647_o. jpg?efg=eyJpIjoibCJ9&oh=ceb1deb2d48b5e63cb1a8bf9d8 0bdec8&oe=562533CF



Can someone explain why the N.H.C says only 20% yet 70% off all models say tropical storm intensity within the next 128 hours?

(Also, Quote me what you think the hurricane on my profile pic is)
Or this one for a "storm surge" (it was more like the wrath of God to me), from Super Typhoon Haiyan, as I can't see how anything... tsunami, hurricane, or superstorm... could ever be much worse, more deadly, or more devastating than this..... :(

Link

And most of them never knew/realized, it could be this bad. :(

Jo
Not much wind yet down here except at the beach, man it was windy there tonight, it was wonderful. 15mph winds in October make for great evening beach weather in Sofla.
25-30 kt ENE winds and 6-9 ft seas currently in the Gulf at 28 N 89 W due to pressure gradient between 92-L and High

pressure over the Miss. Valley. Near gale conditions are occurring near the Mexico coast near Veracruz.
Quoting 231. Famoguy1234:

Can someone explain why the N.H.C says only 20% yet 70% off all models say tropical storm intensity within the next 128 hours?

(Also, Quote me what you think the hurricane on my profile pic is)


While winds to Tropical Storm force are highly likely, a Tropical Cyclone as defined by the NHC, will be hard to develop due to land proximity and external environmental factors. I think it is more likely that some form of hybrid
or Subtropical entity will form once 92-L moves over the Bay Of Campeche. But a TC is possible, hence the Low %
numbers from the NHC.
Quoting 202. Patrap:

Hurricane Juan here in 85' had caskets popping out the cemetery plots down in Lafitte, La.








Juan and Kate that year were a tracker's nightmare. Weak Steering currents had both of them wandering back and forth before final landfalls. I remember spending two days pushed up on the bank of the Bolivar Peninsula waiting for tide levels to come back up in Galveston Bay so we could proceed down the Intracoastal waterway to Port O' Connor, TX. (Juan).
Quoting 189. Astrometeor:



Have that problem on campus a lot. One building last year had 23 false fire alarms. Everyone evacuates every time (if you don't, it's a $250 fine).



Radar was picking up what looked like lake effect snows too. Deep cold front, NWS seemed impressed by the strength of it in their discussions.



I take my salt with a grain of models. :)



Well since Cody is now a college freshman, he's probably at a party or something. :-)


I miss freshman parties. Hang out with the water polo guys, they know how to have a good time. :)
The only hope for a gulf hurricane is the extreme southern boc and into mexico
I was checking the wind map for the Philippines just now and it seems that the typhoon there has hardly moved at all since yesterday.
Given the constant rainfall of up to maybe an average of 2 inches per hour, they must have already received about 20 inches or more.
The typhoon chart projected into tomorrow shows little signs of significant movement.
By now its not just the rainfall causing flooding but the constant bombardment of the coastal villages as well will surly be taking a heavy tool on villages and infrastructure.

Link
Quoting 230. nrtiwlnvragn:







That is the best Halloween costume yet--totally scary!
Quoting 236. canehater1:



Juan and Kate that year were a tracker's nightmare. Weak Steering currents had both of them wandering back and forth before final landfalls. I remember spending two days pushed up on the bank of the Bolivar Peninsula waiting for tide levels to come back up in Galveston Bay so we could proceed down the Intracoastal waterway to Port O' Connor, TX. (Juan).
Elena was the worst that year, and forced some to evacuate the same area twice.
97L appears very disorganized.

However, visible satellite images seem to indicate .... convection increasing in the southern Bay of Campeche.

It will be interesting to see if the low level swirl moves into the BOC near the area of convection, or will it take a nose-dive further south.

The developing system in the nearby Pacific might rob all the energy from 97L.




Another category 5 super typhoon in the pacific?




Should be around for a few days.



Oh, yeah!! Watch this>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

With the two invests likely combining in some way, should be interesting to see where all this energy is going to go. Southern Mexico in for a washout for days it looks like. So close, but will the COC make the BOC? Going to be a close call and with so much energy out there, see why the NHC might fly this one today.
92L...



Thanks for the smile Grothar. And posting the models. I've forgotten where to find them.
It's Sunday. I'm awake this early.
It's the middle of October and I'm watching satellites.
And it's 45 degrees!!!

I dunno? Something seems a lil off.

Lol. Good morning everyone. :)
STS in his childhood Halloween custome. Preview of what was to come?

Quoting 250. AtHomeInTX:

Thanks for the smile Grothar. And posting the models. I've forgotten where to find them.
It's Sunday. I'm awake this early.
It's the middle of October and I'm watching satellites.
And it's 45 degrees!!!

I dunno? Something seems a lil off.

Lol. Good morning everyone. :)



Have a good one. Today is actually the first day this year I can honestly say I feel fall in the air. Humidity is low, but still in the 80's.
Quoting 252. Grothar:



Have a good one. Today is actually the first day this year I can honestly say I feel fall in the air. Humidity is low, but still in the 80's.


Thanks Gro. You too. We've had flashes of fall here but they don't last long. It's unusually dry. Although, I think I'm the only part of Texas not under fire weather watch. Looks like things are fixing to change again.

254. MahFL

Quoting 225. Skyepony:

James Reynolds came across some people fishing in Koppu.


It just looked a bit windy, I doubt they were actually in much danger.
Quoting 254. MahFL:



It just looked a bit windy, I doubt they were actually in much danger.



They could have been flying fish.


Is the HWFI drunk?
Quoting 253. AtHomeInTX:



Thanks Gro. You too. We've had flashes of fall here but they don't last long. It's unusually dry. Although, I think I'm the only part of Texas not under fire weather watch. Looks like things are fixing to change again.




Why do they ALWAYS put the numbers right on the line so it can't be read??????????????? I think the guy does it purposely.
Quoting 258. Grothar:



Why do they ALWAYS put the numbers right on the line so it can't be read??????????????? I think the guy does it purposely.


Lol. My daughter came by last night and I had her read the numbers to me. :)
Good morning...Looks like 92L is looking for that sweet spot in the BOC....Still to much shear....
I've been hearing about next spring and summer that the Atlantic will be much more favorable for tropical cyclone development with much warmer SSTs temperatures and lower pressures across the board in the Atlantic. For those living along the East Coast we have to be ready, I know there is always hype surrounding these type of forecasts, and a CRY WOLF situations. But I heard this forecast from my friend who is a chief Meteorologist in South Fl, Joe Bastardi, and a few more Meteorologists in various National Weather Service Locations that I called that specialize in Long Range Forecasting. Anyaway for all those WISHCASTERS from Florida to Massachusetts you might get ur wish next year. You see the last 2-4 years of CAT 5s in the Western Pacific that very well might be headed our way as we have skirted disaster the last decade. Welcomed or Unwelcomed this COULD be our near future. Brandon P Brady
262. vis0

Quoting 247. Grothar:




Oh, yeah!! Watch this>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>


reply at zilly pg.4 cmmnt#161 THERE
Good Sunday over there. James Reynolds just published some pictures of his Koppu-footage:


Typhoon Lando / Koppu Lashes Philippines - Flooding & Strong Winds Breaking News Footage
18.10.2015: Footage of typhoon Koppu strong winds and flooding in Maddela and Cabanatuan cities, Philippines shot on 17th to 18th October 2015. For licensing please email James (at) EarthUncut (dot) TV

More on his twitter feed.

I've seen some news that unfortunately some/a couple of people died due to Koppu/Lando but couldn't find a reliable summary in English yet. I hope numbers will stay low!


Source.


(Source). I'd vote for that model (COTC = U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast) keeping Koppu/Lando out to sea and heading west (although this would be inconvenient for the Chinese/Hongkong, of course).
Quoting 241. lhwhelk:



That is the best Halloween costume yet--totally scary!
Very cool, but reminded me first of Joe Btfsplk from the old L'il Abner comic strip.
Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 18 Oct 2015 13:00:00 UTC

Winds: NNW (340°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 72.0 F

Sacrifice Island near Mexican Coast, BOC


Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Sun, 18 Oct 2015 12:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

Buoy 214 nm NE of Veracruz (BOC)
Good Morning. 92L in the Gulf and EP97 in the E-Pac just off of Central America are "sharing" some of the convective energy down in that region and shear is pretty high across the Gulf. No wonder 92L is currently just at 20% from NHC. There needs to be some separation between the two disturbances, and relaxed sheer over the Gulf, for 92L to have any hopes of becoming a tropical depression downstream. Might become a sub-tropical system as noted by Dr. M last week if it is able to lift out of the BOC and head North or it could remain in that general region for the next several days.

Too early to tell which way the system will go but shear is a big issue:



Is the low even off the coast???
There does not appear to be a dominant low at this point either with 92L or EP97 and both are so close to the land mass between Mexico and Central America that it will take some time a closed low to consolidate over water until they move away. If shear was lower, we could potentially see the "Bay of Campeche" effect in play with 92L because of the circular topography but you have to have low shear and a well defined lower level circulation..................Not even close at this point with the strongest surface vort signature at the surface actually over land. Don;t see the Hunters flying in today into this unorganized area.



92L looking good.
Cool and comfy at 62F here.

Gaw-jus'
Okay, last sequel of the swirl-romance in the East Atlantic (see post #33) with special edition: full-fledged 24 hours loop of the wedding night:


Click to enlarge. Source.

Umm, what's the outcome? Did at last, the other morning, the bride, the greenish ex-tropical swirl chase away her groom, the purpelish cold and dry swirl of formerly northern origin? Or digest it?

Whatever: the remaining vortex keeps on dragging a lot of precipitation from the south into Iberia. Our PlazaRed in southwestern Spain should experience a quite wet Sunday:




BTW, Germany still under the upper level cold air pool, making Germans and even more their hundreds of thousands refugee-guests shiver.
I have to go. Nice day everyone!
Quoting 278. Patrap:

Cool and comfy at 62F here.

Gaw-jus'
29 here this morning Pat..almost broke a record for the date....its coming
I shut down like a turtle when it drops to 32F or lower myself.

: )
We are still getting heavy rain in Belize!
Current rain rate: 5.25"/hr
Storm Total rain: 9.50"
Yesterday: 6.92"
1.25" in the last 10 minutes!


Quoting 276. TCweatherman:

92L looking good.


For a very sheared tropical disturbance too close to land and apparently headed inbound with little hope of tropical development...............................However, a big rain event for those folks down there in Mexico living in the Yucatan region.
Quoting 281. Patrap:

I shut down like a turtle when it drops to 32F or lower myself.

: )


I wade fish along the Gulf Coast and used to wear a wet suit to prolong my Fall-Winter wading; then 10 years ago, I went in (almost chest deep) with air temps of 38 on a Veterans Day wearing the suit and an Air Force flight jacket on top. A wave caught me (water in over the neckline) and I struggled to wade back to the car (it was 6:30 am and not a sole around for a 20 walk back to the car). Shaking and trembling (teeth chattering too) all the way and sat in the car for 30 minutes with the heat on full blast and still shaking when I reached the house an hour later.

Hypothermia all the way and it took me about 24 hours to recover..................Point being once the average air temps drop below 50 in the am, I stay away from the wade fishing trips until the Spring..........................
Quoting 284. weathermanwannabe:



I wade fish along the Gulf Coast and used to wear a wet suit to prolong my Fall-Winter wading; then 10 years ago, I went in (almost chest deep) with air temps of 38 on a Veterans Day wearing the suit and an Air Force flight jacket on top. A wave caught me (water in over the neckline) and I struggled to wade back to the car (it was 6:30 am and not a sole around for a 20 walk back to the car). Shaking and trembling (teeth chattering too) all the way and sat in the car for 30 minutes with the heat on full blast and still shaking when I reached the house an hour later.

Hypothermia all the way and it took me about 24 hours to recover..................Point being once the average air temps drop below 50 in the am, I stay away from the wade fishing trips until the Spring..........................



Yeah, I went surfing (Texas Coast) all day in 44 degree water temperatures with air temperature in the mid 30s (sleet mixed with rain). I was only wearing a 3mm wetsuit that day. When I got out of the water my skin was purple. It took me about 24 hours to return back to feeling normal (lots of hot showers).

Coldest with no wetsuit is 66 degree water. I surfed for several hours in 66 degree water with no wetsuit and I was basically hypodermic when I got out of the water.
Quoting 284. weathermanwannabe:



I wade fish along the Gulf Coast and used to wear a wet suit to prolong my Fall-Winter wading; then 10 years ago, I went in (almost chest deep) with air temps of 38 on a Veterans Day wearing the suit and an Air Force flight jacket on top. A wave caught me (water in over the neckline) and I struggled to wade back to the car (it was 6:30 am and not a sole around for a 20 walk back to the car). Shaking and trembling (teeth chattering too) all the way and sat in the car for 30 minutes with the heat on full blast and still shaking when I reached the house an hour later.

Hypothermia all the way and it took me about 24 hours to recover..................Point being once the average air temps drop below 50 in the am, I stay away from the wade fishing trips until the Spring..........................

For those ever coming to that: desperately, wildly seek help (instead of doing what you want: sleep) when the shivering subsides. Then it's become hypothermia proper. Recovery can take up to six months.
And I had left the cell phone in the car; I was almost ready to call Tyndall AFB near Panama City for a chopper rescue........................ :) I was out at St. Marks Wildlife Refuge and I had gotten there when the automatic gate opened to the park at 6:00 am; and no one was out there because of the cold temps. Never Again.

Now, I always use the buddy system (bring along a Bud) for those early am isolated trips and keep the cell phone on me wrapped in an airtight baggy.
Quoting 280. hydrus:

29 here this morning Pat..almost broke a record for the date....its coming

"It" being what, exactly?

Quoting 172. ColoradoBob1:

the Florida navel glazers

I hope you lose your fresh water first, Then your home is worth zero.
as this truly your hope?
In droves they will move here.
Oh, they've been anyways


290. vis0

Quoting 257. fabian171017:



Is the HWFI drunk?
i don't see it, (is that the one obviously cheating, leaning over the shoulder and copying off the other pink lines notes)
Well, at least our invest has some has some warm water to work with.
Quoting 288. ACSeattle:


"It" being what, exactly?
The cold weather. I believe it will be a repeat of the past couple years just wetter.
Quoting 292. hydrus:

The cold weather. I believe it will be a repeat of the past couple years just wetter.

So do you believe the West Coast will have another very warm and very dry winter?
Good chance of tropical development near PORTUGAL??

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°WElev: 79ft.


Partly Cloudy

68°F

20°C
Humidity 38%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph
Barometer 30.28 in (1025.2 mb)
Dewpoint 41°F (5°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 18 Oct 10:53 am EDT


Ahh, fall frontal passages in North FL, hard to beat :)
Quoting 284. weathermanwannabe:



I wade fish along the Gulf Coast and used to wear a wet suit to prolong my Fall-Winter wading; then 10 years ago, I went in (almost chest deep) with air temps of 38 on a Veterans Day wearing the suit and an Air Force flight jacket on top. A wave caught me (water in over the neckline) and I struggled to wade back to the car (it was 6:30 am and not a sole around for a 20 walk back to the car). Shaking and trembling (teeth chattering too) all the way and sat in the car for 30 minutes with the heat on full blast and still shaking when I reached the house an hour later.

Hypothermia all the way and it took me about 24 hours to recover..................Point being once the average air temps drop below 50 in the am, I stay away from the wade fishing trips until the Spring..........................


Yeah I've had some scary wade fishing experiences when it comes to cold water. I always regret doing it if I don't catch anything good. There isn't much more I hate than being in cold water. I can't for the life of me understand why there such appeal for living on the California coast for that reason.
Quoting 161. sar2401:

I note both of us remain in the cool, dry part of the country. I'm waiting for the "wet" part of El Nino to kick in.


Yeah this pattern for rain in TX and OK has nothing to do with El Nino. El Nino is the positioning of the subtropical jet across the gulf coast and strong westerlies carrying upper systems quickly from west to east across the gulf.
Quoting 296. Jedkins01:



Yeah I've had some scary wade fishing experiences when it comes to cold water. I always regret doing it if I don't catch anything good. There isn't much more I hate than being in cold water. I can't for the life of me understand why there such appeal for living on the California coast for that reason.

People underestimate how dangerous waders can be. I certainly did until we were running in a skiff out to the duck blind and we hit a submerged stump and I went over. Waders filled up and I dang near drowned. If I'd have been alone It Would have been over. I never put my waders on while in the boat ever again.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 56m56 minutes ago
Freeze warning in effect tonight for entire DC metro area. Upper 20s to low 30s could damage or kill unprotected plants
Quoting 290. vis0:


i don't see it, (is that the one obviously cheating, leaning over the shoulder and copying off the other pink lines notes)



It previously showed 92L hitting Cat 5 at 132hrs
Looks as if 92L's doing some work down there. Circulation and Vorticity appear better organized and defined, especially on vis.
Quoting 294. unknowncomic:

Good chance of tropical development near PORTUGAL??


GFS has prolonged the cruise of our East Atlantic system on the brink of being warm-cored until Oct 25 (started on Oct 13). Pity that it isn't/wasn't designated as 93L.


The winds have come inland here in So Fla. Gusts over 20 mph here atm.
Quoting 293. ACSeattle:


So do you believe the West Coast will have another very warm and very dry winter?
Yep...With intermittent low pressure coming through with a little relief from the drought, but not much. If you really want the scoop on what may happen, go here to AER...It is mostly about the AO, but covers everything in the Northern Hemisphere...Link
305. IDTH
So I miss one day and I can already tell that trying to figure out where 92 L is going is probably going to be about as hard as most of the storms have been this year, and the very weak steering currents definitely don't help. Much uncertainty, still a lot of shear in the Gulf, just watch and wait.
Quoting 296. Jedkins01:



Yeah I've had some scary wade fishing experiences when it comes to cold water. I always regret doing it if I don't catch anything good. There isn't much more I hate than being in cold water. I can't for the life of me understand why there such appeal for living on the California coast for that reason.



your average peep doesn't realise that Calif doesn't usually have balmy waters. I remember one time being at the beach in San Diego, during the end stretch of a heatwave, that the beach waters didn't totally chill you when you got in. I know everyone I've talked to in UK about it, didn't realise Calif was on a cold water current (and not sure they actually understood what I meant by that). Just the same, I was surprised when I first put my feet in the sea on the UK N/W coast, and it was incredibly mild.

Other than that, Calif has little that appeals to me anyway! LOL I do miss the cultural mix, late night coffee houses and Joshua Tree though.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT FOR 18/1900Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 18/1240Z.
Quoting 292. hydrus:

The cold weather. I believe it will be a repeat of the past couple years just wetter.
more or less our arctic vortex will position itself just n nw of northern Quebec ssw Greenland near ellesmere island in a continuous winter loop
92L/INV/XX/XX


Quoting 310. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

more or less our arctic vortex will position itself just n nw of northern Quebec ssw Greenland near ellesmere island in a continuous winter loop
Yep..I am still looking at the data, but it really does look like heavy winter weather for at least the eastern third of North America. I am fricken swamped with serious work load, so I do my studying when I can.
314. IDTH
Quoting 311. Patrap:



I have a question, has the Caribbean typically had more ocean heat content than the Gulf of Mexico?
92L has to start lifting now nnw on the rtn flow up over western gulf on the heels of the warm push back north last cold night of this cold push rebounding temps beginning tomorrow for central plains n and east too grt lakes by mid week
More of Koppu's possible tracks shifting west, away from Luzon.



LOL! post of the day.

Quoting 251. capeflorida:

STS in his childhood Halloween custome. Preview of what was to come?


Super Typhoon Champi is currently moving north and strengthening. It's forecast to enter the westerlies and a frontal zone which is interesting since that frontal zone is positioned to take it in a deep layer flow rapidly eastward toward the West Coast. Nothing yet to indicate where its extra-tropical remnant will end up.
Quoting 317. pingon:

LOL! post of the day.



Very cute. I wanted to share this, but couldn't find the post on the costumeworks facebook page.
Quoting 302. barbamz:


GFS has prolonged the cruise of our East Atlantic system on the brink of being warm-cored until Oct 25 (started on Oct 13). Pity that it isn't/wasn't designated as 93L.




Just heading into night time here now, the sky looks like the roof of a badly illuminated lead cave.
A few heavy showers here today in my zone but there was flooding to my north in Seville and areas along the Portugal boarder.
This system is set to be around for a couple of days more and according to the rain chart which includes the north of Morocco, they look like they will be having a bad time of it all on the south side of the Mediterranean Sea.
I'll watch out for the bad news which is sure to come as a result of all the rain.

Quoting 314. IDTH:


I have a question, has the Caribbean typically had more ocean heat content than the Gulf of Mexico?


Yes.
Here's a site that shows the maps. You can pick any month and year and compare heat content or SST

Link.

Quoting 288. ACSeattle:


"It" being what, exactly?
'


Winter is Coming
It almost looks like there is a secondary low forming on the actual Yucatan Peninsula east of where the main center is. Probably my eyes fooling me but it looks like a Fujiwara low there.

Eric
Quoting 320. PlazaRed:


Just heading into night time here now, the sky looks like the roof of a badly illuminated lead cave.
A few heavy showers here today in my zone but there was flooding to my north in Seville and areas along the Portugal boarder.
This system is set to be around for a couple of days more and according to the rain chart which includes the north of Morocco, they look like they will be having a bad time of it all on the south side of the Mediterranean Sea.
I'll watch out for the bad news which is sure to come as a result of all the rain.




So, at least in this instance, the rain in Spain is not mainly on the plain.
Quoting 316. barbamz:

More of Koppu's possible tracks shifting west, away from Luzon.





The centre of the storm is now situated over the west coast of the island.
In 24 hours it is projected to have moved up the west coast and will still be over the island.
The 48 hour projection is for the centre to then be over the north coast of the island.

Of course things can change but that's the present projections.

Raining now in my zone in the south of Spain, I'm waiting for the 9 pm news to see what the general situation with the projected flooding is as we have not had much rain in our zone being on the north east side of the Grazalema mountains which keep a lot of downpours off us.
Waiting for the 12Z Euro to finish.
The 12Z GFS doesn't seem to excited about anything major forming in the GOM, buut we know that could change. The GFS does take a system right in to Bermuda. It's been pretty consistent the past few days with that system
328. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located inland over southeastern Mexico just west of Villahermosa is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily across portions of the Bay of Campeche. This system is moving slowly westward to west-northwestward, and development is unlikely since the low is no longer expected to emerge over water. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been canceled. This system could still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
Are we approaching the record total for tropical systems worldwide for a season? 2005 maybe? Most active year in the Atlantic basin ever at least.
332. beell
Quoting 325. Grothar:




Awesome. You got it fixed!

Now get 'em to fix the "Decreasing wind shear".
Quoting 329. DeepSeaRising:

Are we approaching the record total for tropical systems worldwide for a season? 2005 maybe? Most active year in the Atlantic basin ever at least.

Ever? No way. In fact, just about average.
334. beell


The gyre rules!

Quoting 332. beell:



Awesome. You got it fixed!

Now get 'em to fix the "Decreasing wind shear".


I'm leaving it just the way it is. You're not the boss of me :):)
Quoting 326. PlazaRed:


The centre of the storm is now situated over the west coast of the island.
In 24 hours it is projected to have moved up the west coast and will still be over the island.
The 48 hour projection is for the centre to then be over the north coast of the island.

Of course things can change but that's the present projections.

Raining now in my zone in the south of Spain, I'm waiting for the 9 pm news to see what the general situation with the projected flooding is as we have not had much rain in our zone being on the north east side of the Grazalema mountains which keep a lot of downpours off us.

Koppu track: that's right, and fresh Euro12z has it still moving (edit:) NNE:

48 hours (Tuesday)


And good luck with your rain! Below the map of accumulated rain until tomorrow evening:



337. beell
A decent chance that a weak surface low will develop right on the coast of S TX later in the week. Approach of the western trough will advect the tropical moisture out of the BOC to the north. Strong onshore gradient winds of 25-30 knots (high pressure to the east) should still be considered a good possibility towards the end of next week as well.

A wet and windy forecast still has merit for the TX coast (imo an in my dreams, (imd) of course).
Are any of those islands in Champi's path populated?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.