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Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

For Texas Residents:

Widespread rainfall event increasingly likely this weekend


Ingredients continue to come together for a period of wet weather from Friday-Sunday. Moisture is returning to SE TX this morning as noted by the isolated inland moving showers on radar over the coastal waters into the coastal and inland first tier counties. These showers appear to be in response to a sliver of higher moisture being transported northward on increased southerly flow of the past 48 hours. With a little heating this morning expected a continuation of these showers today.


Of more importance is the late week period into the weekend as parameters are coming together to produce a potential widespread rainfall event. Low pressure formation ahead of a deepening SW US trough will help transports low level tropical moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico northward into the region starting Thursday. May see slightly better rain chances on Thursday than currently being indicated, but the better chances should hold off until Friday when the tropical moisture reaches the area. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday pulling northward off the western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, mid and high level moisture is already spreading NE across MX into TX from EPAC tropical system Miriam. This moisture along with the increasing Gulf moisture will become entrained in the slow moving trough producing widespread rainfall from SW TX into E TX over the weekend.



Surface frontal boundary currently over NW TX will only slowly drag SE over the next 2 days and gradually enter the area early Saturday…more importantly this boundary adds a focus for deep convection that was largely absent yesterday in the model guidance. This change does raise some concern for more significant rainfall over the weekend as the slow moving trough, a slow moving surface boundary, saturated air column, and extremely high moisture levels (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) all combine to produce some very heavy rainfall. Still not overly confident on where the heavy rains will set up although the southern half of TX appears to be in the best location south of the 250mb jet streak and near/south of the surface boundary. The “tropical like” air column will support some very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time and this will need to be watched especially if any cell training or slow storm motions are noted. Would not at all be surprised to see some 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates with this set up. Models are really keying in on Saturday afternoon-Sunday morning as the best time for organized heavy rainfall spreading from SW to NE across the region.
Dr Masters, in your opinion, which Cat 5 is more impressive, Jelawat or Sanba?
Thank you Dr. Masters, Nadine won't go away and Jelawat I guess could restrengthen.
New invest 94E in EPAC.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209261418
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012092612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012092612, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1030W, 25, 0, DB
Thanks doc.If shear levels don't calm down soon then the season might be shut down for business.The usual "breeding grounds" where the storms form this time of year have high shear values now.But if a season like 2009 can produce a storm in November then I guess this one can try to.I think around the 15 of next month is when we should start to watch out for development in the caribbean.
If you include when it was extratropical, the San Ciriaco hurricane in 1899 was active for 33 days. Nadine still has some way to go!

Link

Do feel sorry for Nadine though, pretty much every other storm this Atlantic season has had another storm for company at some point in it's lifetime.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 26Sept.12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
26Sept.12am: TS.Nadine had been headed 192.1°SSWest@4.7mph(7.6km/h)
26Sept.06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 196.0°SSWest@3.6mph(5.8km/h)
26Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 163.9°SSEast @ 3.6mph(5.8km/h)

HOR-Faial :: LIS-Lisbon :: FNC-Madeira :: RBA-Rabat :: VDE-ElHierro

The 4 kinked lines traces Nadine's path on its 11th thru 14th days after becoming a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the 2 connected straight lines is TS.Nadine's most recent position

Copy&paste hor,lis,fnc,rba,vde, 32.5n26.8w- 31.8n26.7w- 30.8n26.5w- 30.4n26.0w- 30.4n25.8w, 30.4n25.8w- 30.4n25.6w- 30.5n25.4w- 30.9n25.8w- 31.1n26.1w, 31.1n26.1w- 31.3n26.6w- 31.6n27.5w- 31.8n28.1w- 32.2n28.7w, 32.2n28.7w- 32.2n29.4w- 31.9n29.9w- 31.8n30.2w- 31.4n30.3w, 31.4n30.3w-31.1n30.4w, 31.1n30.4w-30.8n30.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the GOM and Caribbean next weak.
Well I'll leave you all with this and I'm gone "The more recent 1995-2011 average of 15 named storms 8 hurricanes and 4 majors".This is from TWC themselves in their more recent update about the seasonal activity :).So for all you doubters that came after me this morning I'm backing up the facts.Good day to you Doc and fellow bloggers :).
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the GOM and Caribbean next weak.

Joe has been tweeting this type of thing since Isaac. Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Joe has been tweeting this type of thing since Isaac. Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. :)


I'm not a fan of his but 2 things he has been right about this summer - storms forming north of 25 or west of 80 and a big slowdown after Sept 5th.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I must say Jelawat looks like...
Seriously, dude?

Rules of the Road: "Avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather."
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

Can you remove your disgusting comment please. You have a sick mind.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

Really, I'm not a prude, but this kind of analogy is not appropriate for a G rated forum.
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone ?
Nadine up to 50 mph.
...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 30.6°N 30.3°W
Moving: S at 5 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

...MIRIAM TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 20.0°N 115.7°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Quoting Patrap:
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone.
Yes please, ice cold with a large side of gulf pinks.
Congrats Nadine. Youve lived for 2 weeks now.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Congrats Nadine. Youve lived for 2 weeks now.

She also has now passed Leslie, I think, in terms of ACE.
It almost looks like that 10% AOI is moving WNW towards Nadine. She seems to suck things up like a vacuum cleaner while sitting out there spinning.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm not a fan of his but 2 things he has been right about this summer - storms forming north of 25 or west of 80 and a big slowdown after Sept 5th.
Here is a map showing the tracks of the 2012 Atlantic named storms to date:



Keep in mind that 25N is about the latitude of Key Largo, FL.
I do not see that an unusually significant number of storms have formed above 25N as compared to the recent active period of storm formation in the Atlantic that began in the 1990's. Can you provide more information to back up this assertion?

It is true that several of this year's storms tended to strengthen after they got north of 25N, the NHC commented on that. But as for storm formation, I cannot see how you can say Bastardi is correct.
Quoting Patrap:
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone ?

Hello, Pat, good to see you around again. Has the damage been fixed at your place? I hope you're back home again. We'll see if Joe picks up on your "forecast". :)
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/
14N/75W looks interesting.
Quoting sar2401:

Hello, Pat, good to see you around again. Has the damage been fixed at your place? I hope you're back home again. We'll see if Joe picks up on your "forecast". :)


Its in works,,but the Landlord is a Moran.

That's not misspelled, he dosent rate 2 "O's". : )

Thanx for asking,,,it means a lot.
Published on Sep 3, 2012 by patrap

Hurricane Issac Impacting NOLA early after Dark Tuesday the 28th of August 2012

Published on Aug 30, 2012 by CNN

The levee overtopped in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, leaving many stranded and awaiting rescue. Brian Todd reports.

For more CNN videos, check out our YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/cnn

Or visit our site at http://www.cnn.com/video/


Watch what you ask for..you may not like it.

For when the water comes,there's no place to go sometimes.

Leave,

Leave,

Leave.
Quoting guygee:
Here is a map showing the tracks of the 2012 Atlantic named storms to date:



Keep in mind that 25N is about the latitude of Key Largo, FL.
I do not see that an unusually significant number of storms have formed above 25N as compared to the recent active period of storm formation in the Atlantic that began in the 1990's. Can you provide more information to back up this assertion?

It is true that several of this year's storms tended to strengthen after they got north of 25N, the NHC commented on that. But as for storm formation, I cannot see how you can say Bastardi is correct.


Here's the more telling and significant stat:

Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.

There is no NORM anymore due to well, u know.


: )

Hi Levi. How many more named storms you see forming the rest of season?
Quoting Levi32:


Here's the more telling and significant stat:

Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.



Another strange year
Tornado wise also a strange year.

In fact everything has gone strange. Here in SE TX we're going weeks without a drop of rain, totally off from past weather. I've never seen where we go weeks and weeks without measurable rain along the gulf coast, so we're definitely in climate change mode. I wont get into whether it's manmade and all that stuff, but it's changed
People are strange when you're a stranger
Faces look ugly when you're alone
Women seem wicked when you're unwanted
Streets are uneven when you're down

When you're strange
Faces come out of the rain
When you're strange
I agree Stormpetrol the yellow circle should be in the Central Caribbean.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. How many more named storms you see forming the rest of season?


I could see 1 or 2 more left in the tank for October. We've been without the support of the MJO for nearly a month now, but it is forecasted to return during the first half of October, which could generate some activity in the late-season climatological regions of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico.
Crapemyrtels drooping from lack of rain up on the medians of neighborhoods and in parking lots of stores. Just ticks me off. Supposed to rain during the summer months especially when you have a friggin GOM in your backyard.
Quoting Patrap:
There is no NORM anymore due to well, u know.


: )



Whatever happened to Norm!

http://dailyhowler.blogspot.com/2012/05/missing-p erson-watch-whatever-happened.html
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Whatever happened to Norm!

http://dailyhowler.blogspot.com/2012/05/missing-p erson-watch-whatever-happened.html


I saw him at a AA meeting in NOLA last week,...
,he is thinner though.


: )
Dee "Mojo" dint phase Issac at'tall.

: ]
Hey Levi, This is coming to get you. stay safe mate

5 comments here.

Wowsa.


Forecasting Isaac



Stu Ostro, September 9, 2012

Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Dr. Masters, Bryan Norcross and I were among the meteorologists asked by TWC to participate in a Q&A (a blog roundtable of sorts) about forecasting and communication challenges with Hurricane Isaac. Here are my answers.


Maybe they should have invited someone who fought him for 48 plus Hours.

I do know a guy though.


ppppfth.
Quoting Levi32:


I could see 1 or 2 more left in the tank for October. We've been without the support of the MJO for nearly a month now, but it is forecasted to return during the first half of October, which could generate some activity in the late-season climatological regions of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico.

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?
Not sure if this got posted yesterday, but the child of Nadine (Karin) brought more than heavy rainfall and strong winds to the UK:

Sea Foam

Further to my post earlier this morning, the Environment Agency has still issued 57 flood warnings and 100 flood alerts for the UK - again mostly for the northeast and northwest of England.

Flood Alerts
Quoting AussieStorm:

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?


Like most comedians, The MJO like's a really big room as well.
Quoting AussieStorm:

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?


The WPAC has the highest average large-scale vertical velocity values on Earth. It makes sense that the convective signal there would be amplified more by a vertical wave such as the MJO, causing stronger fluctuations than in other regions of lesser convective activity on average.
Quoting Levi32:


The WPAC has the highest average large-scale vertical velocity values on Earth. It makes sense that the convective signal there would be amplified more by a vertical wave such as the MJO, causing stronger fluctuations than in other regions of lesser convective activity on average.


Ahh, but can it dance ?
Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission

Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks doc.If shear levels don't calm down soon then the season might be shut down for business.The usual "breeding grounds" where the storms form this time of year have high shear values now.But if a season like 2009 can produce a storm in November then I guess this one can try to.I think around the 15 of next month is when we should start to watch out for development in the caribbean.

The low level of cloud over the MDR is allowing the SST's to pump up and that heat will begin to get deeper.
Quoting Levi32:

Here's the more telling and significant stat:
Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.
Thanks Levi. That is very remarkable.

I was rechecking this years tropical cyclogenesis locations, here is a summary
2012 Tropical Cyclone formation locations YTD
Source: NHC Data Archives

Alberto TD-N/A, TS-32.2N 77.7W
Beryl TD-N/A STS-32.5N 74.8W
Chris TD -N/A TS 39.3N 57.7W
Debby TD-N/A TS 26.2N 87.6W
Ernesto TD-12.2N 49.0W, TS-12.8N 56.6W
Florence TD-13.8N 27.8W, TS-14.8N 30.6W
Helene TD-13.7N 43.8W, TS-20.6N 96.1W
Gordon TD-29.9N 55.1W, TS-33.3N 53.8W
Isaac TD-15.2N 51.2W, TS-15.4N 53.9W
Joyce TD-12.4N 36.3W, TS-15.2N 42.2W
Kirk TD-23.8N 43.9W, TS-23.9N 45.0W
Leslie TD-14.1N 43.4W, TS-14.4N 45.3W
Michael TD-25.6N 42.2W, TS-27.0N 43.5W
Nadine TD-16.3N 43.1W, TS-17.8N 45.2W

So we have six out of 14 named storms originating north of 25N year-to-date. Is that a significantly high ratio, or is it just a small fluctuation due to chance? Maybe it is high after all. I guess one way to address this would be to simply compile the similar data for many past years then do a hypothesis test.
Edit - Gordon TD location corrected
Oh look, someone has turned into a comedian. Thought that wasn't allowed here.
Looks to me like the CV season is winding down

Scientists Seek Insights into Outlier Drought Projections



-Andrew Freedman

Although official drought outlooks failed to provide Americans with advanced notice of one of the worst droughts to strike the U.S. since the Dust Bowl-era %u2014 a drought that is still ongoing %u2014 there were some computer models that got the forecast right. Viewed as outliers at the time by climate forecasters tasked with making seasonal forecasts, such models look downright prescient with hindsight.........




The GFDL forecast illustrates a dilemma that climate forecasters face, since models show varying levels of skill depending on the conditions at the time they are run. When an El Nio event is underway, for example, one model might become more reliable than another, just because of the ways it incorporates ocean temperatures into its complex series of calculations.
A european climate forecasting system, known as EUROSIP, that also showed some skill in predicting the drought and heat.
---
Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.

---
Quoting guygee:
Thanks Levi. That is very remarkable.

I was rechecking this years tropical cyclogenesis locations, here is a summary
2012 Tropical Cyclone formation locations YTD
Source: NHC Data Archives

Alberto TD-N/A, TS-32.2N 77.7W
Beryl TD-N/A STS-32.5N 74.8W
Chris TD -N/A TS 39.3N 57.7W
Debby TD-N/A TS 26.2N 87.6W
Ernesto TD-12.2N 49.0W, TS-12.8N 56.6W
Florence TD-13.8N 27.8W, TS-14.8N 30.6W
Helene TD-13.7N 43.8W, TS-20.6N 96.1W
Gordon TD-20.6N 96.1W, TS-33.3N 53.8W
Isaac TD-15.2N 51.2W, TS-15.4N 53.9W
Joyce TD-12.4N 36.3W, TS-15.2N 42.2W
Kirk TD-23.8N 43.9W, TS-23.9N 45.0W
Leslie TD-14.1N 43.4W, TS-14.4N 45.3W
Michael TD-25.6N 42.2W, TS-27.0N 43.5W
Nadine TD-16.3N 43.1W, TS-17.8N 45.2W

So we have six out of 14 named storms originating north of 25N year-to-date. Is that a significantly high ratio, or is it just a small fluctuation due to chance? Maybe it is high after all. I guess one way to address this would be to simply compile the similar data for many past years then do a hypothesis test.


I don't have the statistics necessary to know what the average is. Technically it doesn't look too far away from the normal ratio, but I am of the opinion that a far better metric is to look at the strength of storms in different regions. As I mentioned, climatologically we should have had a lot more ACE being generated in the deep tropics, but every system has struggled to intensify until it made its way farther north or west.

I also have a hypothesis that the number of significant disturbances and cyclogenesis events south of 20N has been above average for an El Nino year this season due to a more active African wave train than normal, which has spit out stronger waves than usual this year, part of a multidecadal trend upward in Sahel rainfall and the strength of the African Easterly Jet. The problem has been that hostile conditions over the Atlantic have held those systems in check, and all below hurricane intensity, until they escape poleward.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission



NASA just posted this shiny picture of that very bird:


(Click image for hugegantic version)
Jelawat is very impressive today.

Quoting Levi32:
I don't have the statistics necessary to know what the average is. Technically it doesn't look too far away from the normal ratio, but I am of the opinion that a far better metric is to look at the strength of storms in different regions. As I mentioned, climatologically we should have had a lot more ACE being generated in the deep tropics, but every system has struggled to intensify until it made its way farther north or west.

I also have a hypothesis that the number of significant disturbances and cyclogenesis events south of 20N has been above average for an El Nino year this season due to a more active African wave train than normal, which has spit out stronger waves than usual this year, part of a multidecadal trend upward in Sahel rainfall and the strength of the African Easterly Jet. The problem has been that hostile conditions over the Atlantic have held those systems in check, and all below hurricane intensity, until they escape poleward.
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/


<3 xkcd
I love that it's an intelligent, science-based comic and I love that Randall mentions Wunderground in his comic at times. :)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.


I'm interested to see how much Jelawat's eyewall contracts back down.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Jelawat is very impressive today.


Yes, Jelawat has been impressive for awhile, sadly those days are coming to an end. Shear and cooler waters will weaken Jelawat and Jelawat will eventually turn into an extra-tropical storm.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/

Best part of that comic (aside from the science) is this:

"the unexplained meteorological phenomenon is simply dubbed a “Skrillex Storm”—because, in the words of one researcher, “It had one hell of a drop.”"
end of the GFS run...168 hours
can Nadine break the 89 advisories of Kyle's?
Quoting jeffs713:

Best part of that comic (aside from the science) is this:

"the unexplained meteorological phenomenon is simply dubbed a “Skrillex Storm”—because, in the words of one researcher, “It had one hell of a drop.”"


"dubbed"
Ar ar, I get it. :)
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes, Jelawat has been impressive for awhile, sadly those days are coming to an end. Shear and cooler waters will weaken Jelawat and Jelawat will eventually turn into an extra-tropical storm.

Well, not all systems are like Karen or Nadine, they don't live forever.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, not all systems are like Karen or Nadine, they don't live forever.

I guess I was getting used to seeing Nadine live on forever, Jelawat was one of the best looking storms this year.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.


Looking at that loop, it looks like the eye has gotten very wide, and the convection is wrapped in a thick, circular band. I was reading about annular cyclones yesterday, and my understanding is that they tend to form as an eyewall replacement cycle ends, and as the cyclone moves into colder water. I've been watching the IR and visible loops for Jelawat over the last several days, and I've never seen the convection in a thick band like that even in the middle of EWRCs before. So... what do people think? A few hours ago, people seemed to dismiss the idea, from looking at the older blog, but it looks a lot different now.

And looking at the historical record, it seems like Typhoon Jelawat of 2000 was annular. So there's some precedent, at least.
Typhoon Jelawat has gone from an average size Typhoon to a very large typhoon.

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 210 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed September 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 18.2º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 402 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 404 km (ENE) away from Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 459 km (ENE) away from Ilagan City
Distance 4: 460 km (ENE) away from Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 489 km (ESE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 6: 491 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 725 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 790 km (SSE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)



SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENDING IN A BIGGER 25-NM EYE.
THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING ONE
FROM A 261112Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED FROM THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD AND IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A POLEWARD STREAM INTO THE BACK END OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
THAT PASSED EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES CIRRI TRANSVERSE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, INDICATING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)TO THE EAST THAT HAS
SINCE REBUILT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

TPPN10 PGTW 261438

A. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT)

B. 26/1432Z

C. 18.6N

D. 125.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0933Z 18.1N 126.0E SSMS


NEWCOMER







168 hrs. need to keep an eye on the BOC as the shape of the landmass there can get something going in a jiffy.

A real powerful PNA ridge is forecasted to develop out west and over Alaska! No doubt because of these two typhoons. A Greenland block will also develop but shift from west-to-east based while a polar vortex will drift from the davis straight to se canada before breaking down.

All this should telleconnect to a powerful east US trough and western ridging by the second week of October(7-13th)!!!
Quoting captainktainer:


Looking at that loop, it looks like the eye has gotten very wide, and the convection is wrapped in a thick, circular band. I was reading about annular cyclones yesterday, and my understanding is that they tend to form as an eyewall replacement cycle ends, and as the cyclone moves into colder water. I've been watching the IR and visible loops for Jelawat over the last several days, and I've never seen the convection in a thick band like that even in the middle of EWRCs before. So... what do people think? A few hours ago, people seemed to dismiss the idea, from looking at the older blog, but it looks a lot different now.

And looking at the historical record, it seems like Typhoon Jelawat of 2000 was annular. So there's some precedent, at least.

Jelawat does have a clear eye and a good eyewall after the EWRC, he could even strengthen a little again. Though Jelawat will not become an annular typhoon even if strengthening occurs. There is too much banding going on with Jelawat and a typhoon/hurricane can't be annular with banding.
Looks like September wont cut it rainwise for GA, except for a few areas that got trained over and were slightly above normal.

Alabama stole all the rain.
And the storms.
Again.



Looks like NOAA was wrong about GA getting a TC this year so far, and without more big troughs forecast, i would say the 10inch rainfall deficit will not increase or decrease much, which is good, because we arent having drought effects, and would not like to start
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

80. wpb
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission

nice do u have there link?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Jelawat does have a clear eye and a good eyewall after the EWRC, he could even strengthen a little again. Though Jelawat will not become an annular typhoon even if strengthening occurs. There is too much banding going on with Jelawat and a typhoon/hurricane can't be annular with banding.


Ah, thanks, I hadn't seen that most recent microwave image, and if I had I wouldn't have asked.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.



And will that SW Caribbean low that GFS shows be the start from the 12th to develop? It has been pushing back the timeframe with that on past runs.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.



Martinique got it retired.



Looking at the long "trail" from

Puerto Rico to the Turks and Caicos...

(should I put on my aluminum foil hat?)

: )
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.
Quoting captainktainer:


Ah, thanks, I hadn't seen that most recent microwave image, and if I had I wouldn't have asked.

You're welcome, still a fascinating storm annular or not.
GOES 14, the satellite currently subsituting for the ailing GOES 13, is of the same generation and could be repositioned to provide resolution as good as before if GOES 13 can't be fixed.

Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Engineers looking into cause of weather satellite anomaly
....
The GOES 13 satellite, stationed over the equator at 75 degrees west longitude, began showing noise in imaging and sounding data about two weeks ago.

The satellite's imager and sounder instruments were placed in standby mode Sunday.

Engineers rushed the GOES 14 spare satellite into duty to cover the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and much of the U.S. East Coast.

John Leslie, a NOAA spokesperson, said Tuesday there was no decision yet to transfer GOES 14 from a storage location at 105 degrees west to GOES 13's location further east.
....
Quoting Cotillion:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.
Hi. What a shame. I visited York many years ago and loved it. I feel so bad for all those people. The mud and mildew and what not they will find. And you have winter coming on the heels of this. Hopefully it will be a mild winter for UK. Take care.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC059-075-111-113-261945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0358.120926T1648Z-120926T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS AND PONCE

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 1245 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 345 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1811 6678 1812 6675 1811 6673 1813 6671
1813 6668 1815 6665 1815 6653 1798 6651
1797 6677 1799 6677 1797 6678 1797 6682

$$

JJA
Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.

It would be great if it didn't hit land, I think someone will get some bad impacts.


1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Still at 10% but I'm not surprised as it's not doing too good.
94E stays at 30%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Looking at the long "trail" from
Puerto Rico to the Turks and Caicos...

(should I put on my aluminum foil hat?)
: )


I think you better protect yourself with something, else if you stick your head up too high it is going to get hit by all of those blue barbed arrows.
It 84 and Humidity of 56% not bad for WPB!!:)
Currently in the NE Pacific....

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.



deadly...that's right!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in the NE Pacific....



they can deal with that...they had a 943mb low early this year...
I notice the script on this site acts like cold water on graphics that are too large...automatic shrinkage.

that's the monster storm in the day after tomorrow movie...lol
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

that's the monster storm in the day after tomorrow movie...lol

I think of it as the aliens messing with our satellites from Independence Day.

I can't wait for the problem to be fixed.
Google releases 'underwater street view' of Great Barrier Reef, more


Good luck getting driving directions.

A new partnership between mapping giant Google and The Catlin Seaview Survey, a major scientific study of the world’s reefs, allows you to surf through the world’s oceans with the first underwater panoramas in Google Maps.

The company has updated its Street View feature to incorporate the amazing images of the Great Barrier Reef, Hanauma Bay in Hawaii, and other sites in Australia, the Philippines and more.

“Whether you’re a marine biologist, an avid scuba diver or a landlocked landlubber, we encourage you to dive in and explore the ocean with Google Maps,” wrote Brian McClendon, vice president of Google Maps and Earth, in a blog post unveiling the new feature.

He called the new images “the next step in our quest to provide people with the most comprehensive, accurate and usable map of the world.”

A cruise through the new art work reveals stunning sights: a sea turtle swimming among a school of fish, a manta ray adrift, and the reef at sunset. Or visit the entire collection and choose a virtual destination yourself.

The images were captured with a specially designed underwater camera, the Catlin Seaview SVII. It takes rapid-fire 360-degree images every 3 seconds while traveling at a speed of approximately 2.5 miles per hour. Images are then stitched together and published online to create the virtual dive, the company explains.

There are currently only two SVII’s in in the world, according to the Seaview Survey. One is named Sylvia after oceanographer, aquanaut and author Sylvia Earle, the second Ron after the legendary shark photographer Ron Taylor.

Quoting Cotillion:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.


Oh my Cotillion! That's amazing. Please stay safe
Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.

First, here is a link to the RAMMB site which has multiple satellite images of Nadine, Link
Also try the NAVY site as they have satellite images, Link

Here is a current image of Nadine:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe Martinique got it retired because it effectively rubbed salt into wounds already created by Hugo.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC023-067-093-097-121-125-153-262100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0359.120926T1800Z-120926T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 500 PM AST. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RIVER
RISES AND FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6687 1805 6692 1808 6721 1814 6719
1817 6720 1820 6717 1823 6718 1825 6718

$$

JJA
It might be hard to see, but 1002 mb. low hugging the Gulf Coast in 5 days:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
It might be hard to see, but 1002 mb. low hugging the Gulf Coast in 5 days:


I see it, development is possible in that area and Nadine is sticking around.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think of it as the aliens messing with our satellites from Independence Day.

I can't wait for the problem to be fixed.


that's a better way ti put it... or what if those were the air ships they come in?
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.
The CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group site is one of the best out there, navigate to it from the CIMMS homepage...be sure to check out the CIMSS Satellite Blog while you are there. Also, here is the official SSD POES site.
Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)



DOOM!!!!
lol

Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)




Don't worry Slam, as long as we get cold air masses we will get lake effect snow. No matter what we should see some lake enhanced snow as well.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)
Either it cools by evaporation and comes down as snow or it radiates out into space...the former is a lot more fun than the latter.

Nitpick...nice graphic but I do not like the color map...hard to tell the difference between some of those alternating darker bands, so you have to search for nesting, which is against the principle of a good color map.
Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.

3rd?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.

I do have a feeling that she will be sticking around for a while, it will be nice to get a new storm.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Don't worry Slam, as long as we get cold air masses we will get lake effect snow. No matter what we should see some lake enhanced snow as well.


Ya, well, we had that cool down the last week or so, but now we're pretty warm and sunny (at least me, haha), so maybe we'll still end up on the warm side. But ya, need those cold Canuck air masses over all else!
The GFS has Nadine around through 384 hours, or for a total life span of an incredible 32 days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3rd?


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane (28) and Hurricane Ginger (27) with 26 days.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The GFS has Nadine around through 384 hours, or for a total life span of an incredible 32 days.

If that verified then Nadine would break the all-time record and I would be sick of forecasting/hearing that name.
I've never seen anything quite like the models are predicting for a forecast path for Nadine. It end up making two more loops south of the Azores and still be going strong if the GFS was to be accurate. The ECMWF ends up taking Nadine all the way back down south to ~28N by 240 hours.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane and Hurricane Ginger with 26 days.

1899 hurricane, would've sucked to go through that


Hurricane Ginger, took a weird path


Finally we have Nadine, her future is unknown.
Good afternoon. Jelawat is still going really strong, Okinawa is likely going to get a direct hit or close to a direct hit from a Cat 2 or 3 typhoon.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Jelawat is still going really strong, Okinawa is likely going to get a direct hit or close to a direct hit from a Cat 2 or 3 typhoon.




Good afternoon MA, the last thing they need is another hit from a strong typhoon.
Quoting guygee:
Either it cools by evaporation and comes down as snow or it radiates out into space...the former is a lot more fun than the latter.
Well, definitely an over-simplification, especially for the Great Lakes, where there is a lot of convection in the water, cooler waters sinking and lower water upwelling...turnover, as well as wind and sloshing effects to help. That plays a really large part in the surface temperatures, the lakes are not stratified like most of the ocean.

When I have to correct myself I must be getting screen-weary...BBL.
The next 7 days look to be calm and cool for me.


Miriam is really fading fast due to cooler waters and stronger shear. She won't be a tropical storm for too much longer the way things are going.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3rd?

If it lasts 26 days, this is where it would be.
Greatest duration %u2020
Sources: NOAA[2][3][4],Tropical Atlantic[5]
Duration
(days) Name Date
28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
26 Hurricane Nadine September 2012
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
23 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
21 Storm 4 September 1926
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
20.75 Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971
Quoting CybrTeddy:


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane (28) and Hurricane Ginger (27) with 26 days.

Hurricane/Typhoon John was around for 31 days, also travelled 13,000 km (8000 mi).
Quoting guygee:
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.


It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
nice spin with the 10% one. windshear look high throughout the basin
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricane/Typhoon John was around for 31 days, also travelled 13,000 km (8000 mi).

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.
142. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in the NE Pacific....



Forecast for West Prince William Sound:

Today: Rain...heavy at times in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. North to east wind 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Through portage valley and turnagain arm...east wind 20 to 35 mph increasing to 45 to 60 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Rain...heavy at times in the evening. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s...coolest inland. North to east wind 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph near whittier decreasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Through portage valley and turnagain arm...east wind 45 to 60 mph decreasing to 20 to 35 mph after midnight.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

Really!!!!!
WOW!!!!
I never knew that?


I'm being sarcastic of course
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

Correct, but Nadine could even last longer than that.
Quoting Thing342:
I believe Martinique got it retired because it effectively rubbed salt into wounds already created by Hugo.


Well Nadine "kind of" affected the Azores. They're getting affected by more tropical cyclones than most places. I mean Gordon didn't do much, but still: if Nadine is forecast to do a triple whammy on the islands, it may make for an interesting next few months... or however long she decides to stick around for haha.
148. JLPR2
12z GFS, 384hrs

Ridiculous, that's Nadine south of the Azores.

Quoting LargoFl:


Radar loop
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

Might be another Helene that it develop pretty fast.
Global Hawk over TS Nadine.
Nadine should have no problems becoming the longest-lived tropical cyclone in history should the global models verify. Quite the spectacular event.
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MIRIAM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AS THE
20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DIAGNOSED OVER THE CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY TAKING A TOLL. INNER CORE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AND
DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND OF T-
AND CI-NUMBERS IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 50 KT.

NO DECREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED IN 48
HOURS...THOUGH IT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE USED TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER....AND HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN
ESTABLISHING A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 350/06. SO LONG AS
AS THE CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND A PIECE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE AND RESPONDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW...A
WESTWARD BEND IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BEND COULD EVEN BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...AS DEPICTED IN SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24
HOURS...NEAR BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.8N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.6N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING...NOW
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER OSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. NADINE IS
PRODUCING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...DROPSONDES FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT
NORTH OF NADINE SHOW 35-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR
TOWARD THE STORM. LATER DROPSONDES SHOULD HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THESE WINDS/DRY AIR ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE CORE OF NADINE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 200/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GUIDANCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR. WHILE THE
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NADINE WILL NOT RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
DUE TO RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. FINALLY...THE HWRF AND
THE CANADIAN SHOW LITTLE MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 96
HR...THE NEW FORECAST IS FOR A VERY SLOW MOTION DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEW TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL
WIND PATTERN NEAR NADINE. FIRST IS THE 400 MB NORTHERLY WINDS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE STORM. SECOND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N47W...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NADINE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
ARE CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALL FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR NADINE AFTER
36 HR. HOWEVER...THEY ALL SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD
CONTINUE TO SHELTER NADINE FROM THE WORST OF THE SHEAR. FINALLY...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE MERGING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW BY 120 HR...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
PROBABLY THE LEAST COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT NADINE
SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48-72
HR. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL AFFECT
NADINE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHORTER WINDOW FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24-36 HR. IT ALSO CALLS
FOR LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 30.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 29.0N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 29.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

...MIRIAM MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND STEADILY WEAKENING...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 20.8°N 115.4°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.8N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.6N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED


...NADINE NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 30.2°N 30.8°W
Moving: SSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 30.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 29.0N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 29.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Nadine will probably transition into a subtropical or extratropical cyclone for a few days in about 48 to 72 hours as it moves over Sea Surface Temperatures less than 25C. I doubt we would have seen the end of it though as the models show the storm entering warmer waters and a better wind shear environment once again by the end of the period.
Los Trof ?

On waves of love my heart is breaking
And stranger still my self control
I can't rely on anymore
New tides surprise my world it's changing
Within this frame an ocean swells
Behind this smile I know it well
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine will probably transition into a subtropical or extratropical cyclone for a few days in about 48 to 72 hours as it moves over Sea Surface Temperatures less than 25C. I doubt we would have seen the end of it though as the models show the storm entering warmer waters and a better wind shear environment once again by the end of the period.

She already went subtropical to extra-tropical to tropical so I wouldn't be surprised if she did that again. I think we still have a while with Nadine.
Nadine reminds me of the Christmas shopping season with the kids.They see a toy that they want on a commercial in August..they harass me to get it for them for the next two-three months and I finally cave in after a while.They won't leave me alone and stop bothering me..Same with Nadine..she won't leave and forecasters are getting bored/bothered by her...
2012 Atlantic hurricane season ACE

1. Hurricane Michael (C3): 16.4975 units
2. Hurricane Nadine (C1): 15.0125 units
3. Hurricane Leslie (C1): 14.7500 units
4. Hurricane Isaac (C1): 9.4725 units
5. Hurricane Gordon (C2): 8.1900 units
6. Hurricane Ernesto (C1): 7.7050 units
7. Hurricane Kirk (C2): 7.5100 units
8. Hurricane Chris (C1): 2.7200 units
9. Tropical Storm Debby (TS): 2.4500 units
10. Tropical Storm Florence (TS): 1.4375 units
11. Tropical Storm Alberto (TS): 1.3750 units
12. Tropical Storm Beryl (TS): 0.8650 units
13. Tropical Storm Helene (TS): 0.2450 units
13. Tropical Storm Joyce (TS): 0.2450 units

Total: 88.47 units
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine reminds me of the Christmas shopping season with the kids.They see a toy that they want on a commercial in August..they harass me to get it for them for the next two-three months and I finally cave in after a while.They won't leave me alone and stop bothering me..Same with Nadine..she won't leave and forecasters are getting bored/bothered by her...

Nadine will stick around long enough for Christmas it seems.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012 Atlantic hurricane season ACE

1. Hurricane Michael (C3): 16.4975 units
2. Hurricane Nadine (C1): 15.0125 units
3. Hurricane Leslie (C1): 14.7500 units
4. Hurricane Isaac (C1): 9.4725 units
5. Hurricane Gordon (C2): 8.1900 units
6. Hurricane Ernesto (C1): 7.7050 units
7. Hurricane Kirk (C2): 7.5100 units
8. Hurricane Chris (C1): 2.7200 units
9. Tropical Storm Debby (TS): 2.4500 units
10. Tropical Storm Florence (TS): 1.4375 units
11. Tropical Storm Alberto (TS): 1.3750 units
12. Tropical Storm Beryl (TS): 0.8650 units
13. Tropical Storm Helene (TS): 0.2450 units
13. Tropical Storm Joyce (TS): 0.2450 units

Total: 88.47 units

Nadine may take over first place if she stays alive and tropical long enough.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine will stick around long enough for Christmas it seems.


Nadine may take over first place if she stays alive and tropical long enough.
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?
Quoting allancalderini:
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?

Actually that is something I don't know or I would've included that.
Very disappointed in Miriam. Would have liked to have seen the moisture into New Mexico. Sigh!
Quoting allancalderini:
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?


According to ACE equation (10^-4*v^2) which is calculated 6 hours, Nadine, who produces 45 knots winds get an ACE of 0.2 each 6 hours (0.8 per day).

So if she maintains these wind speeds, in 2 days she wins 2012
I wouldn't be so sold on Nadine becoming our longest lived storm yet. First, as TA mentioned it's possible/likely it will become non-tropical for a while at some point, so that will hurt it's chances. I'm also expecting models to come around to a faster solution on getting it out of the Atlantic. I doubt it survives more than 10 days, if that.

Only get to see these a few times a decade...

Pin-wheel eye

Jelawat is weakening slower than originally anticipated. It remains a very powerful 130kt Cat 4 as of the latest JTWC advisory, and is now expected to be a low end Cat 3 as it goes over Okinawa. It's developing a large eye:

Nadine sure has been having a good time out there:

Thunderblizzard-Hurricane

The replacement weatherman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rP_KZnvaA

- don't know if this has been posted. Enjoy if not.
The Sun has risen on Ewiniar.



It'll get to Jelawat before too long and provide yet another night of spectacular visible images. Jelawat will easily become the storm with the globe's highest ACE this year so far.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like European unrest is beginning to unfold. Not counting the Middle East unrest. Maybe the foretold events are getting ready to unfold for the world. And reaching America's shores.

Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in Greece to protest new austerity measures. Meanwhile, anti-austerity protests in Madrid turned violent ahead of the Spanish government's release of its 2013 budget plan.

"Between the protests in Spain, strikes in Greece, the looming Spanish budget...there's plenty to be worried about," said Kathy Lien, managing director of foreign exchange strategy for BK Asset Management. "If the new reform packages and the 2013 budget contain some overly painful cutbacks, we could see more social unrest in Spain."


not weather related.............
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine sure has been having a good time out there:


Yeah she has, I do agree that there are many uncertainties regarding Nadine's future.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


<3 xkcd
I love that it's an intelligent, science-based comic and I love that Randall mentions Wunderground in his comic at times. :)


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.
Quoting docrod:
Thunderblizzard-Hurricane

The replacement weatherman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rP_KZnvaA

- don't know if this has been posted. Enjoy if not.


I posted it yesterday, but some probably missed it. ;)
Quoting Doppler22:

not weather related.............


Neither is your retort... Could we see a real live Fujiwara in the WPAC??
Quoting Thing342:

If it lasts 26 days, this is where it would be.
Greatest duration %u2020
Sources: NOAA[2][3][4],Tropical Atlantic[5]
Duration
(days) Name Date
28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
26 Hurricane Nadine September 2012
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
23 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
21 Storm 4 September 1926
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
20.75 Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971

Dr. Masters is going with the more accurate assumption that the 1899 Hurricane needs to be tweaked in the record books, so he's going with Hurricane Ginger as the longest lived Atlantic Tropical Cyclone.
Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.


Yep! Dr. Masters is in the Blogosphere inset in the lower left.


(click image for link to original... and somebody let me know if embedding this is a no-no)
Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.



Yes, he did that sketch based on "size" (number of hits) of websites, and Jeff linked to it here on the blog.


here is the 2010 updated version: http://xkcd.com/802/
Quoting MrMixon:


Yep!


Thanks! There are a few versions roaming around out there and this is the one I was looking for. :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Only get to see these a few times a decade...

Pin-wheel eye



Is it just me or is Jelawat the most beautiful storm ever......in all its phases so far.
15 Days later at the NHC...


...NADINE STILL SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 17 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, THE MONTH-LONG CYCLONE WILL BE RETIRED SO WE DON'T HAVE TO HEAR THE NAME EVER AGAIN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wouldn't be so sold on Nadine becoming our longest lived storm yet. First, as TA mentioned it's possible/likely it will become non-tropical for a while at some point, so that will hurt it's chances. I'm also expecting models to come around to a faster solution on getting it out of the Atlantic. I doubt it survives more than 10 days, if that.


Kill-joy. Cmon MA! We were getting excited!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
15 Days later at the NHC...


...WILL SHE EVER DIE? NADINE SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 15 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, OH DID WE MENTION THIS IS A NEW RECORD?...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.


steward pulling his hair
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.

Here we go.

DARTHHHHH VADERRRRR
Quoting Articuno:

Here we go.

DARTHHHHH VADERRRRR

Luke, I am your father.

Cool to see a rule added, should clear some things up.
Looks like I'm not the only one with a Star Wars avatar!
Typhoon "LAWIN" has slightly weakened as it continues to move towards the Batanes-Cagayan area.

At 4:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [927 hPa] located at 19.5°N 125.1°E or 350 km east of Calayan Group of Islands has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Abra
5. Isabela

Additional Information
========================

Residents living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Estimated amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN" and Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
There's rules?

Well I'll be,er..well, u know.

: )
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
15 Days later at the NHC...


...NADINE STILL SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 17 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, THE MONTH-LONG CYCLONE WILL BE RETIRED SO WE DON'T HAVE TO HEAR THE NAME EVER AGAIN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.


What Karen jokes?
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Hurricane humor
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:59 AM CST on March 06, 2006




Figure 1. A "beer throne" constructed out of half-price beer on sale because it couldn't make it to New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Note: I corrected the spelling of constructed for the er, "archives".

No charge.

: )
Sun’s Shining: After 17 Years Of Hustling, Wunderground.com Got Acquired By The Weather Channel





In front, from left to right: Chris Schwerzler, Jeff Masters, Jeff Ferguson. In back: Dave Brooks, Alan Steremberg, Perry Samson, Chuck Prewitt, and Mike MacDonald.



About Weather Underground

The world’s first online weather service, Weather Underground is committed to delivering the most comprehensive, reliable weather information possible. Home to more than 21 million users and weather provider to partners such as Google, The Associated Press and CBS, the company’s state-of-the-art technology monitors conditions and forecasts for locations across the world. With more than 19,000 users contributing local observations from personal weather stations, Weather Underground is able to provide up-to-the-minute weather conditions for the most finely targeted areas.

In addition to serving free online weather information to millions of unique users every month, Weather Underground delivers custom-designed weather page solutions to an array of businesses and media clients – both online and in print.





As part of my independent study I have to do a writing portion. I write blogs on WU to fill this requirement, I have just recently written(earlier this afternoon) one on Hurricane Isaac and the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Link.
Almost there...

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Almost there...


So close but yet so far, already looking great.
Quoting quasistationary:
It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
OK, true, warm-neutral, no El Nino declared in the official 3 month average, but all Nino region SSTs above average.


Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds
I HATE,hate..and despise the SSS.

It is redundant as a Do-nut Hole.

It is a BAD tool to relate to the masse's a Hurricanes potential Impact.

As Issac showed us...,

Once again.

This is a much better visual tool or tool's.

Fo sho'.




Tropical Storm Isaac, one month later
And someone over at Bain,TWCC or Blackstone,buy them 2 Guys a frigging Helmet too.



: )
Nadine is more or less being Nadine.



The SSHWS is for wind impact only. All of the other impacts of a storm are listed clearly in the Public Advisory, if people would, you know, read it.
Quoting guygee:
OK, true, warm-neutral, no El Nino declared in the official 3 month average, but all Nino region SSTs above average.


Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Quoting Patrap:
Los Trof ?

Quoting Patrap:
Los Trof ?

Noticed that also. Look at latest vorticity.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SSHWS is for wind impact only. All of the other impacts of a storm are listed clearly in the Public Advisory, if people would, you know, read it.

The thing about it is... Most people dont take the time to go online and go to the NHC site and look at all the advisory information... They just watch the news or a media source and partially you could blame it on the media for minimizing some crucial things about the storm... They really dont talk about all aspects of a landfalling storm which makes people that don't track storms like most of those on the blog, to think that the storm isn't as bad than it really is.
Can the sun rise faster please, I want to fully see Jelawat in visible.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Can the sun rise faster please, I want to fully see Jelawat in visible.

Ask and you shall receive! Looks like the new frame just updated.
215. etxwx
Here's the current Pacific Storm Tracker blog entry from Dave Ornauer via Stars and Stripes:
Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 11
9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat won’t be the powerful beast it is now, but should still take a pretty solid 2-by-4 to Okinawa as it rolls 12 miles south of the island about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing a Category 1-equivalent punch of 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

It looks as if Jelawat will weaken rapidly as it plunges northeast and crashes ashore near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast around 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Those should diminish as Jelawat interacts with mountains and strong vertical wind shear; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain should feel some serious gusts and experience some rainshowers into Monday evening.

Latest Okinawa forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, noon Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 5 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 115-mph gusts, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Sunday.

(Information bolded involve wind speeds of 58 mph or greater, the "magic number" according to military instruction.)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Ask and you shall receive! Looks like the new frame just updated.

My wish has been granted, new frame shows Jelawat in the morning sun.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The thing about it is... Most people dont take the time to go online and go to the NHC site and look at all the advisory information... They just watch the news or a media source and partially you could blame it on the media for minimizing some crucial things about the storm... They really dont talk about all aspects of a landfalling storm which makes people that don't track storms like most of those on the blog, to think that the storm isn't as bad than it really is.

The Weather Channel does a good job of covering all of the aspects of a storm. Some people, certainly not everyone, make no effort to review the effects of the storm, such as storm surge, and then complain about not getting any help afterwards.
I have a weather station where I upload data and picture. Did they change something, my link for timelaspe not working anymore. Also don't see the monthly calendar with timelaspe links. Not checked in awhile so not sure what has changed.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Possibly, or another warm phase of a Kelvin wave could begin coming across the equator. It looks like we are at a low point right now. The last Kelvin wave was weaker than the one before and the CPC did not even bother to mark it up in their report, so that is not a sign of a strengthening El Nino.
220. etxwx
"Lawin" (Jelawat) Report from Philippine Daily Inquirer:

Typhoon ‘Lawin’ picks up, heads for Batanes
5:02 am | Thursday, September 27th, 2012

Typhoon “Lawin” sped up slightly as it continued its movement towards the northern Philippines, the state weather bureau said. At 4 p.m. Wednesday, the eye of the supertyphoon was plotted by satellite and surface data at 410 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

Lawin was packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 250 kph. It was moving northwest at 13 kph, slightly faster than its previous speed of 11 kph, Pagasa said in a bulletin. Public storm warning signal No. 2 was hoisted over the Batanes group of islands and Cagayan, including the Calayan and Babuyan groups of islands. On the other hand, signal No. 1 was raised in Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra and Isabela.

Pagasa said Lawin might make landfall Thursday, although another possible scenario was that it might not make landfall anymore, based on certain models. As of Wednesday, it was moving toward the Batanes-Cagayan area. - DJ Yap
I know Alaskans are used to it, but I wanted to share this anyway.

Intense cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska

New microwave still shows a good eyewall, I do think strengthening is over though.
223. JLPR2
A little old, but it actually made me go, hmm...


224. etxwx
Report on yesterday's Mexican earthquake via CSM:

Baja earthquake rattles Mexico, but causes no injuries
Reuters / September 26, 2012 Mexico City

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck off the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, on Tuesday and caused panic, but local officials said there were no reports of damage or injuries. The quake's epicenter was located 46 miles (75 km) north of La Paz, Mexico, and was centered in the Gulf of California, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
More here.
94E up to 40%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Quoting wxchaser97:
New microwave still shows a good eyewall, I do think strengthening is over though.

Looks like that pass is a bit warped on the edge based on the appearance of the eastern eyewall.
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Looks like that pass is a bit warped on the edge based on the appearance of the eastern eyewall.

Yeah, why I think his strengthening is over for good.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:


That would've been great as long as it didn't impact land severely.



Melting Arctic snow isn’t as dramatic as melting sea ice, but the snow may be vanishing just as rapidly, with potentially profound consequences for weather in the United States.

Across the Arctic, snow melted earlier and more completely this year than any in recorded history. In the same way ice loss exposes dark water to the sun’s radiant heat, melting snow causes exposed ground to heat up, adding to the Arctic’s already super-sized warming.

This extra heat retention appears to alter the polar jet stream, slowing it down and causing mid-latitude weather patterns to linger. It’s even possible that the ongoing North American drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, was fueled in part by climate change in the Arctic, making it a preview of this new weather pattern’s ripple effects.

“In the past, whatever happened in the Arctic stayed in the Arctic. But now it seems to be reaching down from time to time in the mid-latitudes,” said climatologist James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “When you combine the new influence of the Arctic with other effects, such as El Niño, we’re seeing the more extreme weather events.”
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:

October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:



Michael was the best in the Atlantic.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Michael was the best in the Atlantic.

Yeah, he was pretty cool especially since he wasn't really supposed to become anything, but he was still no Cat 5 monster like Jelawat was.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah, why I think his strengthening is over for good.


That would've been great as long as it didn't impact land severely.

I think that has to do more with the quality of the pass than it does the organization of Jelawat. I personally expect Jelawat to strengthen a little bit, possibly just back into category 5 threshold, but an eyewall of that size is quite difficult for a storm to maintain, especially as Jelawat prepares to enter the mid-latitude westerlies.
Yikes, 6.9 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands. Shallow too, 35km.

Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.


It was Masters island and the progress of the MJO to boot.
WEAK53 PAAQ 262344
TIBAK1

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
344 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012

...A STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED BUT A TSUNAMI IS NOT
EXPECTED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA OR ALASKA COASTS...

NO WARNING... NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.

BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE... LOCATION AND HISTORIC
TSUNAMI RECORDS A DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA
COASTS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA
LEVEL CHANGES.

AT 340 PM ALASKA DAYLIGHT TIME ON SEPTEMBER 26 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH
PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 6.9 OCCURRED 80 MILES/129 KM SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK ALASKA.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT BY THE
WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER UNLESS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
FOR BASIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION - SAFETY RULES AND TSUNAMI TRAVEL
TIMES.

$$
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I think that has to do more with the quality of the pass than it does the organization of Jelawat. I personally expect Jelawat to strengthen a little bit, possibly just back into category 5 threshold, but an eyewall of that size is quite difficult for a storm to maintain, especially as Jelawat prepares to enter the mid-latitude westerlies.

Nah, I think Jelawat is probably done strengthening. Nadine however I have no clue as to what she will do.
Quoting allancalderini:
October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
Quoting allancalderini:
October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.
Nadine will probably still be around by then.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P

I say one Caribbean storm and one higher latitude storm, hi Kori.
Quoting Thing342:
Nadine will probably still be around by then.

It will be December 22nd and Nadine will still be around, that's how long she will be around.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah, I think Jelawat is probably done strengthening. Nadine however I have no clue as to what she will do.

Agree to disagree, although in the end, it matters not to me. And yeah, Nadine is definitely still a wait and see.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Agree to disagree, although in the end, it matters not to me. And yeah, Nadine is definitely still a wait and see.

The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Great. No more El Nino to pop the wishcaster's bubble.
I believe Nadine is a Karen spiral band remnant .
AL, 14, 2012092700, , BEST, 0, 297N, 311W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 100, 100, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,
Quoting KoritheMan:


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
LOL I do but I doubt storms will move west towards CA Maybe Nicaragua but I think storms will be put toward the northwest or northeast towards Cuba and Yucatan maybe even Florida.
Quoting Thing342:
AL, 14, 2012092700, , BEST, 0, 297N, 311W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 100, 100, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Now we will wait to see if it stays at 50mph at the 11pm advisory.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.
guess nadine is just enjoying life and longliveity over the ocean making round-a-bouts to maybe strike islands again.... its basically shouting *weeeee look at me i`m free!*
Anybody ever heard of the Florida Volcano(Wakulla Volcano)???

Link
Quoting Josihua2:
guess nadine is just enjoying life and longliveity over the ocean making round-a-bouts to maybe strike islands again.... its basically shouting *weeeee look at me i`m free!*

For now she is free, eventually a front will pick her up, a ridge will push her away, or she will just die out.
Quoting weatherbro:
Anybody ever heard of the Florida Volcano(Wakulla Volcano)???

Link





Is it kinda like a Pat O'Brian's Hurricane?
Seems we lost the outside LINK prompt warning wunderyakuza?

Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST September 27 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (920 hPa) located at 19.6N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in northern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 123.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Near Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 24.2N 125.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Near Miyako-jima
72 HRS: 26.5N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinawa Island Waters
Nadine really reminds me of a polar low. These things don't die off easily.

Nadine, yesterday


An example of a polar low
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!
So over/under 9.5 more days?
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!


Gambling is not allowed. 10 to 1 says you get in trouble.
I thought you might enjoy this. It is a 1929 image of a hurricane hitting Andros Island. If they don't get the Satellite fixed. We may have to all draw our own hurricane images.


A view of just how close Nadine has been to Europe for several days.

Loop - WOW that is a hostile environment!

Nadine is worse than Karen could ever be, this thing just wont die.
Be sure not to log out of Wunderground because the log in screen is not working. Having to use my phone to post.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Be sure not to log out of Wunderground because the log in screen is not working. Having to use my phone to post.

I never log out of WU so I should be good, thanks for letting us know.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine is worse than Karen could ever be, this thing just wont die.

This thing will continue to live on for an unknown amount of time, it is too unpredictable.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is a little off topic, but I thought it was interesting how it appears as if the rainforests of Africa and South America appear to "breathe" out moisture into the atmosphere every day.
Gordy, I see swirls within swirls..

Quoting winter123:
A view of just how close Nadine has been to Europe for several days.

Loop - WOW that is a hostile environment!



I had a Nadine close to me once,,but alas,

...sigh.
NADINE
..the futcha is coming on, it's coming on..


There are now 85 days left until the Winter Solstice.
Quoting Patrap:
..the futcha is coming on, it's coming on..


There are now 85 days left until the Winter Solstice.
not much longer now winter fast approaches
277. beell
<-
It'd be nice if Wunderground would fix the log in problem..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's be nice if Wunderground would fix the log in problem..

It would be nice if I could understand the grammar in the beginning;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not much longer now winter fast approaches

I can't wait until winter comes with the cold and snow.
Quoting beell:
<-
hello
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A BAND
CURVING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK...SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURROUND
NADINE...THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND FSSE.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2338 ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.5N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 29.1N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 33.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY
245 wxchaser97: The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.

I disagree. Thus far, making an educated guess about Nadine has been no more meaningful than making an uneducated guess.
...LONG-LIVED NADINE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 29.5N 31.4W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.5N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 29.1N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 33.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

...MIRIAM WEAKENING FAST OVER COLD WATER...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 21.5N 115.7W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 22.9N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
I WOULD LOVE THE DISTURBANCE TO THE ENE OF THE LEEWARDS TO DIVE ON US AND BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. SEPTEMBER IS THE DRIEST ON RECORD SO FAR.
By the time Nadine dies they'll have to dig up our fossilized remains.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 31.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

Seems like years ago...

Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....
I'm impressed.



Interesting (and kinda gross) result of the "spawn of Nadine":

http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourcommunity/2012/09/foam -covers-scottish-village-after-freak-storm.html

Quoting Thing342:
Nadine will probably still be around by then.



She's probably waiting for a Christmas present from Santa. She's been a good girl this year.
Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....


It would probably work. Those things have amazing range. They operate out of Edwards AFB.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Melting Arctic snow isn’t as dramatic as melting sea ice, but the snow may be vanishing just as rapidly, with potentially profound consequences for weather in the United States.

Across the Arctic, snow melted earlier and more completely this year than any in recorded history. In the same way ice loss exposes dark water to the sun’s radiant heat, melting snow causes exposed ground to heat up, adding to the Arctic’s already super-sized warming.

This extra heat retention appears to alter the polar jet stream, slowing it down and causing mid-latitude weather patterns to linger. It’s even possible that the ongoing North American drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, was fueled in part by climate change in the Arctic, making it a preview of this new weather pattern’s ripple effects.

“In the past, whatever happened in the Arctic stayed in the Arctic. But now it seems to be reaching down from time to time in the mid-latitudes,” said climatologist James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “When you combine the new influence of the Arctic with other effects, such as El Niño, we’re seeing the more extreme weather events.”


Could that be why Nadines sticking around for so long?
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm impressed.





look at the eye of Jelawat...

just checking out the sun thats a large black spot coming into view

Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Hurricane humor
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:59 AM CST on March 06, 2006




Figure 1. A "beer throne" constructed out of half-price beer on sale because it couldn't make it to New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Note: I corrected the spelling of constructed for the er, "archives".

No charge.

: )


First responder !
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #26
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 27 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" has slightly weakened as it continues to threaten the Batanes Group of Islands

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [938 hPa] located at 19.8°N 124.6°E or 250 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Abra
5. Isabela

Additional Information
========================

Residents living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 & #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Estimated amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN" and Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Login issue has been solved. Sorry for the trouble!
00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system



Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system





And the target is... Louisiana!
Quoting KoritheMan:


And the target is... Louisiana!
Oscar may attack you Kori.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system





Baroclinic origins tho..
Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar may attack you Kori.


Pfft. One of the least intimidating tropical cyclones name. Oscar the Grouch my ***.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pfft. One of the least intimidating tropical cyclones name. Oscar the Grouch my ***.

haahahaha
As usual no one's on, but for those who are, I just finished another blog. Enjoy.
Looks like pre-Norman may pose another threat to Baja based on the synoptic pattern. Hard to see anything but a straight northwest course between that weakness developing over the Rockies, and Miriam's low-level circulation.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/



This got me laughing hysterically :)
Quoting Jedkins01:



This got me laughing hysterically :)


I just finished reading this one.

Link

I'm still cackling over it. :)

The track of Nadine reminds me a bit on the Australia coastline. There's the Great Australian Bight, Cape York, only Victoria is a little bit too big. Next thing what we can expect Nadine's doing is writing "Visit Australia".
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I just finished reading this one.

Link

I'm still cackling over it. :)


LOL






Oh ****. Just noticed a TON of spelling/grammatical errors in my blog. Luckily I have the eye to see through these things and edit them. :P
Quoting Matthias1967:
The track of Nadine reminds me a bit on the Australia coastline. There's the Great Australian Bight, Cape York, only Victoria is a little bit too big. Next thing what we can expect Nadine's doing is writing "Visit Australia".

lol I see that also.

Nadine's rains.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh ****. Just noticed a TON of spelling/grammatical errors in my blog. Luckily I have the eye to see through these things and edit them. :P

I wasn't bothered by them when i read it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I wasn't bothered by them when i read it.


Well considering how pedantic I am about grammar, I was.

But thank you. :)
Currently in the GOA....

Nadine slowly strengthening...
6 more hours, then Nadine will have lived for half a month.
By the way, the longest storm in recent history is Hurricane Kyle of 2002, with 89 advisories. Nadine could reach that advisory number if it lasted for 180 more hours (hmm... 7.5 days).

From Tropical Depression Kyle Advisory Number 60 (2002)
"NOT MUCH MORE CAN BE ADDED AFTER 60 ADVISORIES."
FORECASTER AVILA
I found this interesting.
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
NOON AST MON NOV 05 2001

...NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES HURRICANE
NOEL...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
Nadine Public Discussion 59

"ALTHOUGH I FEAR
THAT NADINE WILL FIND A WAY TO LINGER EVEN LONGER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
"
posts 298-300

great views of the eye.. you can see the eyewall vortices intruding into the eye itself... Andrew was about the same strength when it made landfall.. and some of the eyewall vortices in that storm came near 200 mph.
Morning, everyone. So, is the proposed hit to Louisiana to west Louisiana or east? Supposed to start raining tomorrow or Saturday. My garden will be so happy, but not as happy as my water bill. *S*
Good reading Kori
Good morning. There's a chance we'll be seeing some weak GOM development in 3-5 days as the models are getting a little more consistent with it. This is the 6z GFS at 90 hours:

no sign of anything yet
Good morning everyone, I see nothing has changed with Jelawat, Nadine has strengthened some, and Miriam is falling apart.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, I see nothing has changed with Jelawat and Nadine and Miriam is falling apart.

Actually, Nadine has strengthened a little according to NHC.
...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Meanwhile, ADT has held steady at 2.6


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.6
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Actually, Nadine has strengthened a little according to NHC.
...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Meanwhile, ADT has held steady at 2.6


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.6

Of course she has, well she has done everything.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
341 am CDT Thursday Sep 27 2012




The GFS is becoming more in line with the Euro on this so
maintained the likely precipitation scenario. Went with an earlier
tapering off of the precipitation late Sunday with the GFS showing a
stacked Gulf low deeper into the Gulf and drier northerly flow
moving in. Delightful early Fall weather during the work week as
the flow remains northerly with the stacked low parked over the
central Gulf.
336. VR46L
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.


Why am I envisaging the Jerry Springer Show right now?......
Everyone have a great Thursday!
Morning all,

Been another wet one here in the UK, though forecasts are suggesting the spawn of Nadine may be reduced to scattered showers. There have been reports of rivers reaching their peak levels and more flooding in the north of England:

BBC report on flooding

Because of the large amount of water entering the rivers here, the Environment Agency has still got 43 flood warnings that are valid, again mostly for the northeast and northwest:

Environment Agency

Pretty sure I speak for the whole of the UK when I say that we've had enough of flooding for one year!
Quoting stevsh89:
Morning all,

Been another wet one here in the UK, though forecasts are suggesting the spawn of Nadine may be reduced to scattered showers. There have been reports of rivers reaching their peak levels and more flooding in the north of England:

BBC report on flooding

Because of the large amount of water entering the rivers here, the Environment Agency has still got 43 flood warnings that are valid, again mostly for the northeast and northwest:

Environment Agency

Pretty sure I speak for the whole of the UK when I say that we've had enough of flooding for one year!

Heaviest Summer rains in 30 years......

Bad stuff there.

Hope things settle down soon. The UK has had a Bad Year so far.
Quoting VR46L:


Why am I envisaging the Jerry Springer Show right now?......



People actually watch that Gar-bage ?

Dats a spookie thought.

Thought is responsible for all you see save for Nature.

Consider that or listen here.
Jelawat

Day Viz to Night IR Loop


94E up to 60%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I just finished reading this one.

Link

I'm still cackling over it. :)




A spirit cackling?
Sounds like some books i've read.

Should i be scared? ;)
346. VR46L
Quoting Patrap:



People actually watch that Gar-bage ?

Dats a spookie thought.

Thought is responsible for all you see save for Nature.

Consider that or listen here.


I never watch it ... cant stand the arguments in that show .... Just that I have seen how a debate on politics goes, on here endless arguments about politics ,leading to arguments on religion and morality . Personally I don't debate those items as, if you came from the area of the world I come from it turns to violence and deep hatred, where I have had to state my religion before getting a job due to discrimination that occurs there....

I am completely in tune with nature I was brought up on a small farm less than a mile from a beach, and was brought up to respect the beautiful and volatile world that we are lucky to belong to And we are not the overlords on this planet ,nature is in charge ,we may think we are ...
Quoting guygee:
OK, true, warm-neutral, no El Nino declared in the official 3 month average, but all Nino region SSTs above average.


Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds


Odds of El Nio ease, but risk remains
Link

I know there above norm. However we are in a neutral (warm biased) state. All the reports have always said "near" El Nino thresholds. You're not going to get a full El Nino while this keeps fluctuating:

Jelawat still looks like a very strong (Cat. 4) typhoon. Miriam should be downgraded to a TD because it looks horrible, and Nadone seems to be organizing.

The log in problem is back this morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jelawat still looks like a very strong (Cat. 4) typhoon. Miriam should be downgraded to a TD because it looks horrible, and Nadone seems to be organizing.

The log in problem is back this morning.

I agree with Miriam should be downgraded and then dissipate soon. I didn't know we got a new storm called Nadone. Nadine is organizing and the winds may come up even more.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.1mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.1 3.4

Clearly strengthening more. Maybe it might become a hurricane again someday.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I agree with Miriam should be downgraded and then dissipate soon. I didn't know we got a new storm called Nadone. Nadine is organizing and the winds may come up even more.

Nadone as in Not done, I guess.
Morning inspirational reading,

Plastic debris reaches Southern Ocean, previously thought to be pristine

Researchers on 70,000-mile voyage to investigate climate change say effect of humans is now 'truly planetary'

Zoe Holman
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 27 September 2012 02.00 EDT
346. VR46L

Then you know of conflict..and that's always a good thing.

Thanx
Now SHIPS is forecasting Nadine to be a hurricane in 120 hours.

777
WHXX01 KWBC 271250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU SEP 27 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE (AL142012) 20120927 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120927 1200 120928 0000 120928 1200 120929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 32.1W 28.9N 33.3W 29.4N 34.6W 30.0N 35.7W
BAMD 28.8N 32.1W 29.2N 32.9W 29.9N 33.6W 31.2N 34.3W
BAMM 28.8N 32.1W 28.9N 33.2W 29.4N 34.0W 30.3N 34.5W
LBAR 28.8N 32.1W 28.7N 32.5W 28.7N 32.7W 28.9N 32.9W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS 57KTS
DSHP 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120929 1200 120930 1200 121001 1200 121002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 36.3W 32.2N 35.5W 34.0N 32.6W 36.6N 28.5W
BAMD 33.0N 35.1W 36.9N 36.5W 38.8N 34.3W 40.2N 32.1W
BAMM 31.7N 34.8W 35.0N 34.0W 38.2N 30.8W 40.9N 27.6W
LBAR 29.0N 33.2W 29.2N 33.3W 29.5N 33.2W 30.4N 32.2W
SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 63KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 32.1W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 29.6N LONM12 = 31.1W DIRM12 = 202DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 30.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN
big mass of clouds over the jungles of nw s america. wonder if they are moving north?
Nadine may regain cat 1 status again and may give us some surprises and she looks poise to surpass Michael in number 1 ace producer.
Quoting quasistationary:


Odds of El Ni�o ease, but risk remains
Link

I know there above norm. However we are in a neutral (warm biased) state. All the reports have always said "near" El Nino thresholds. You're not going to get a full El Nino while this keeps fluctuating:

Point well taken. So we are in warm-neutral, "not-quite El Nino" conditions. Is it your claim that the official NOAA definition of "EL Nino" is defined such that the associated atmospheric conditions will change like throwing a switch when the definition is satisfied? Alternately, perhaps it is more of a continuum that becomes highly non-linear as we consider the effects of stronger El Nino states? Personally I would favor the latter.

Also, I would appreciate if you could expand on your comment, "It isn't", in your initial post that I reproduced below. I enjoy these types of discussions, but simple assertions like that are not useful and actually silly, as in: "It is", "It isn't", "Yes. It is", "No, it isn't"...it really goes nowhere you see.

For context, just in case you missed it, the previous discussion was comparing the importance of the locations of tropical cyclogenesis this season to the area where the greatest ACE has been recorded.

Quoting quasistationary:

Quoting guygee:
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.

It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
Quoting VR46L:
...we are not the overlords on this planet ,nature is in charge ,we may think we are ...
It's true. And when something--some arrogant species, for instance--disrupts nature's finely-balanced system, nature has ways of restoring that balance. Gently if possible; brutally if necessary.
Humidity at 38% WOW in WPB!!!!!!:) :) :)
Link
Gone are the days of summer,
gone are the days we tried to decide
where we would go now we just ride.

My youngest son is fully dressed and pacing the room...his heart is set on joining the U.S. Army, and the task has fallen to me to drive him to the recruiters office. He said he wanted to sign something, I asked him to show me before he signed.

If anyone has advice or experience with these matters I sure would appreciate hearing about it.

I am off.
This is the last part of todays discussion from the Tampa Bay area:

THE
GFS FORECASTS A RIBBON OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...IN EXCESS
OF 2.25 INCHES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OR PERHAPS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAY 7...I PREFER NOT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR OUT.



Link
364. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's true. And when something--some arrogant species, for instance--disrupts nature's finely-balanced system, nature has ways of restoring that balance. Gently if possible; brutally if necessary.


Gosh !! we agree in part on something lol ...
Quoting allancalderini:
Nadine may regain cat 1 status again and may give us some surprises and she looks poise to surpass Michael in number 1 ace producer.

Should surpass his ACE early tomorrow morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should surpass his ACE early tomorrow morning.

It appears Nadine is going to get cut off by another building ridge overhead in about 7 days, which will cuase her to stall for a day then get shoved back south, and then we will have to wait another 5-7 days for the next big trough to destroy the ridge keeping Nadine down in the Atlantic still, and then that would give nadine another couple of days to get carried out by the trough... Basically were going to be dealing with Nadine for another 15 days... UGH. Advisory #116 Here we come...
Nadine Formed on September 11th...
She has persisted 17 Days,

Nadine is forecasted to Persist until October 12th...
She will have lived for 32 Days... *New Record*
Debby's final surveys and damage reports have been completed...
Debby officially cuased 308.7 Million USD, and killed 9.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nadine Formed on September 11th...
She has persisted 17 Days,

Nadine is forecasted to Persist until October 12th...
She will have lived for 32 Days... *New Record*

Well, as a tropical cyclone, Nadine lasted for almost 15 days. It would still be a record for the Atlantic (30 days).
Good Morning folks

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
521 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting guygee:
Gone are the days of summer,
gone are the days we tried to decide
where we would go now we just ride.

My youngest son is fully dressed and pacing the room...his heart is set on joining the U.S. Army, and the task has fallen to me to drive him to the recruiters office. He said he wanted to sign something, I asked him to show me before he signed.

If anyone has advice or experience with these matters I sure would appreciate hearing about it.

I am off.


You have WUmail.
Signs of strengthening?
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in MD GRAY
Slow Blog Today...
Really.
I wonder how many advisories would be issued in 40~50 minutes.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Well, as a tropical cyclone, Nadine lasted for almost 15 days. It would still be a record for the Atlantic (30 days).

Ok. so 16 Days. Because she was only Post-tropical for a day or like 36 hours... so either 15-16 days.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 IST September 27 2012
=================================

A low pressure area has formed over west central Bay of Bengal. The system may become well marked during next 48 hours.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Ok. so 16 Days. Because she was only Post-tropical for a day or like 36 hours... so either 15-16 days.

Advisory 60 is going to be issued soon. Since one advisory is issued every six hours, so four advisories per day, it calculates to just fifteen days.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Advisory 60 is going to be issued soon. Since one advisory is issued every six hours, so four advisories per day, it calculates to just fifteen days.

Ok. lol, you win. Good evidence to back you up.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 IST September 27 2012
=================================

A low pressure area has formed over west central Bay of Bengal. The system may become well marked during next 48 hours.

Finally! A named storm hasn't formed yet in the NIO.
Quoting Patrap:
Nadine ? Honey is dat you ?
I asked her on a date. She said I,m ugly and my feet stink..:)..Jelawat..

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS
WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS A SMALL PATCH LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...
WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A RATHER HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. MIRIAM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH
DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/5. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE
LEFT OF DUE WEST IN THE WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MARINE-LAYER
STEERING CURRENT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS...OR LESS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.2N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.5N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 22.4N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 22.3N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 22.0N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

381. wxmod
Just East of Jelawat way out in the Pacific Ocean. Somebody's adding something to this storm. MODIS today.

Quoting guygee:

Just read the weekly ENSO update issued every Monday.
another article about the north polar ice cap, from an irish perspective

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/ 0927/1224324469890.html
Long way out, but it does have that classic autumn storm appearance.
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE RAGGED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 6 HR
AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 240/6. THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N48W. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW MOTION AT 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 72 HR...AFTER
WHICH IT LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE STORM. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR NADINE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD
PARTLY SHIELD NADINE FROM THE RESULTING SHEAR. THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A STRONGER STORM THAN IT DID
DURING THE LAST ADVISORY CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NOW
5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NADINE WILL MOVE OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
NEW FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT
IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 28.7N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 30.1N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 31.5N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 34.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 35.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
387. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but it does have that classic autumn storm appearance.


Don't models predict the future further out by analyzing based on what is normal for that time of year?