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Super Typhoon Haiyan From Ground Zero: a New Video Record

By: Josh Morgerman 3:47 PM GMT on December 02, 2013

This guest post and video is from veteran storm chaser Josh Morgerman of West Hollywood, California, who rode out Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacoloban in the Philippines. Josh is the founder of of iCyclone.com, and has been chasing tropical cyclones since 1991.

Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda to the Filipinos) is one of the biggest weather catastrophes of the past decade. A Category-5 storm making a direct hit on a city of 220,000 is going to make news.

I chased Haiyan to ground zero--Tacloban City--where I rode out the cyclone with fellow storm chasers James Reynolds and Mark Thomas. Our location: Hotel Alejandro, a four-story, solid-concrete building in the heart of downtown, 26 feet above sea level. (Coordinates:11.2414N 125.0036E.)

A safe place. Or so we thought.

I just released this short video that tells the story of that terrible morning--in graphic, frightening detail.



As the wind rose to a scream, as windows exploded and doors blew off, as the building trembled from the impact of flying debris and as children became hysterical, a massive storm surge swept the entire downtown, inundating the hotel and sending guests scrambling for their lives. My fellow chasers and I had to throw down our cameras and pull elderly and disabled guests out through the smashed windows of flooded rooms.

And we were the lucky ones in Tacloban City.

While whole blocks were reduced to rubble, our building stayed standing. And while thousands died--including people on our very block--I’m very happy to say that everyone in our hotel (and everyone you see in my video) survived. This includes the family you see struggling across the storm surge to reach our hotel. (One of the most serious injuries was actually on our own team: while trying to rescue a trapped guest, Mark tore open his leg on underwater wreckage, and weeks later he’s making a very slow recovery at home in Taipei.)

Video as Meteorological Record
My video’s many viewers have reacted strongly to the raw power of the storm and the spectacle of ordinary people trying to survive a life-and-death situation. This is understandable.

But I want to also point out that my video is a useful meteorological record.

When I chase, I always stamp my video footage with the exact local time, so afterward I can compare conditions on the ground with other data--to try and understand what happened.

So my Super Typhoon Haiyan video serves as detailed chronology of the event. Combining it with air-pressure and storm-surge data I collected during the event, we can learn a lot about this unique and ferocious cyclone.

Haiyan Video Chronology
First off, here are some important events and details to notice in the video:

6:47 am. The eyewall sweeps into the city. Winds rapidly increase and rain becomes very heavy. Notice the trees are full and green.

7:08 am. In narration, I note the pressure is 962 mb. This was close to the lowest values my devices recorded (960.8 mb and 960.3 mb at 7:12 am and 7:20 am, respectively)--meaning the center was passing just south of the city and making its closest approach about this time.

7:13-7:25 am. The winds reach a peak. Tornado-like conditions engulf downtown. We never experience a calm--meaning the eye misses us to the south.

7:44 am. The storm surge sweeps in suddenly. The street is completely flooded, whereas just minutes earlier, we hadn’t noticed any water.

8:00-8:30 am. Water is up to the first-floor door handles and windows. (You can see this in the rescue shot--donated by Earth Uncut TV--that follows 7:57 am. It’s not time-stamped but certainly occurred between 8 and 8:30 am.)

8:45-8:46 am. The storm is dying down. Winds are slacking and the water is already noticeably receding--it’s much lower against the doors and windows.

8:57-9:00 am. All deciduous trees across the city are completely stripped--with no leaves. (Palms performed a little better.)


Figure 1. Haiyan, the aftermath: extreme storm surge damage in Tacloban. Image credit: Josh Morgerman, iCyclone.com.

Conclusions
Using the above video events and details—along with other data—we can draw a few conclusions about Super Typhoon Haiyan when it made landfall in Leyte, just south of Tacloban City:

The typhoon’s core was small. As per the video, the storm didn’t last long. Winds in the city didn’t become violent until only 30 minutes before the center’s closest approach, and really destructive winds lasted only 2 hours (~6:45 - 8:45 am). Even taking into account Haiyan’s fast forward motion, it’s clear the storm was on the small side--despite news reports to the contrary. It’s a testament to Haiyan’s incredible ferocity that it was able to completely devastate Tacloban City in such a short time.

The northeast eyewall was strongest. The storm was moving west-northwest and the highest winds seemed to occur during and after the lowest pressure. This is consistent with the radar imagery, which showed the strongest convection in the northeast quad.

Tacloban City experienced extremely high winds--at least Cat 3 and possibly Cat 4, since we saw complete defoliation and evidence of debarking of deciduous trees. This is especially impressive given that the highest winds didn’t last long--and I should point out that it’s exceedingly unusual for an urban area to experience such intense winds. While Haiyan was a Cat-5 storm and Tacloban City was squarely in its north eyewall, we believe the RMW (radius of maximum winds) passed just south of downtown.

The storm surge was tremendous, fast-moving, and short-duration. USGS data and other sources indicate the elevation at our location was 26 feet. Since the hotel flooded to a depth of 4 feet, that suggests the surge may have been an incredible 30 feet! (Even if we’ve overestimated our elevation by 10 feet, that’s still a huge 20-foot surge.) But it didn’t last long. It swept in very suddenly around 7:45 am and was already receding by 8:45--meaning it did its deadly work with incredible speed. This is very different than Hurricane Ike, a large storm that caused large-scale inundation more than a day before landfall.

Josh Morgerman, iCyclone.com

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wimps, you should join these guys on New Years Day


i did that...once was quite enough for me
Quoting 501. ricderr:
Wimps, you should join these guys on New Years Day


i did that...once was quite enough for me
they have a new year swim here in Toronto as well in lake Ontario on new years day
0.8" of ice will paralyze a city.

494) First time I've seen an ice line N of StL, hope the locals were closer, just expecting snow until now. Edit: 505 looks much better (for me) & what I'd seen up until now. Is easy for it to change though, so guard up regardless

Any old timers see Tommy Bolin's last concert (w/ Jeff Beck in Miami) on this date in '76?

Wonder why I always forget I share a bday w/ Ozzie? KSHE jock had to remind me of that a little while ago, my day hadn't been too bad up until then. :)
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
London - Middlesex
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Risk of freezing rain overnight into Wednesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement ended for:
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Algonquin.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Based on the latest assessment, a low pressure system over Colorado
may reach Iowa by Wednesday morning then track northeast towards the
Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. An area of rain with some freezing
rain could develop this evening as far south as the London to Niagara
area where temperatures will be near zero. Then the freezing rain
area is likely to spread north and east to the South Central Ontario
by Wednesday morning and Eastern Ontario by midday Wednesday.
However over extreme eastern sections including the National Capital
Region and the St Lawrence Valley the freezing rain may be delayed to
as late as Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

A freezing rain warning has been issued over Grey Bruce, Barrie -
Orillia- Midland and areas east of Georgian Bay towards Algonquin.

Areas along the western end of Lake Ontario will be slightly warmer
and less likely to see freezing rain. However, there is still
uncertainty with the track and development of this low pressure
system which may affect where the freezing rain will fall.

Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions
as untreated surfaces may suddenly become icy and slippery from the
freezing rain.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor the development of this
system closely and update information accordingly or issue watches
and warnings if the confidence becomes higher.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


End

Quoting 505. TropicalAnalystwx13:
0.8" of ice will paralyze a city.

Yep, and the worst part of it is blackouts.
Quoting 508. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, and the worst part of it is blackouts.
ice storms can be deadly and destructive

I've seen them first hand of all winter weater precip types freezing rain is the worse
DANG PA,MD all have a poor air quality in all of the nation !
Every day it rains now

Quoting 508. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, and the worst part of it is blackouts.



This is one of my main contentions about AGW...how the science is used for political purposes.

"Denialist" positions do not have this problem.

GLOBAL WARMING USED TO HELP RECRUIT AL-QUAEDA?


Quite a massive streak... go winter




If this had existed before our thanksgiving system, a lot more places would have seen snow.... Or simply just the winter airmass that's coming.

I'm ready for the plains snowpack to build up.
This article may be of interest to some.

The Real Truth About Tornadoes (Op-Ed)
By: Paul Markowski, Harold Brooks, Yvette Richardson, Robert Trapp, John Allen and Noah Diffenbaugh

I particularly like this excerpt; many times, people do not take into account better detection as a result of expansion/better technology.

"Although it is a bit of an exaggeration to say, "backyard dust devils are reported," Muller notes %u2014 correctly%u2014 that climate change is not responsible for the dramatic rise in annual tornadoes since 1950. Rather, the larger numbers come from improved detection and reporting of weak tornadoes, particularly EF0 tornadoes, where "EF" refers to the enhanced-Fujita scale used by the National Weather Service (NWS)."
Quoting 514. GeorgiaStormz:
Quite a massive streak... go winter




If this had existed before our thanksgiving system, a lot more places would have seen snow.... Or simply just the winter airmass that's coming.

I'm ready for the plains snowpack to build up.


And it's not from one storm either. Two separate systems going through Tennessee Valley. 2nd one gives us a chance of ice storm in Asheville.
Quoting 514. GeorgiaStormz:
Quite a massive streak... go winter




If this had existed before our thanksgiving system, a lot more places would have seen snow.... Or simply just the winter airmass that's coming.

I'm ready for the plains snowpack to build up.


absolutely NOTHING for my area..I'm sick of seeing only rain..
Quoting 505. TropicalAnalystwx13:
0.8" of ice will paralyze a city.



When I was little we consistently got ice storms every winter but less snow. (I remember very few ice storms but my parents remember them all and have the home videos to prove it)

When I was a young teenager we got snow consistently but little ice.

Now we get nothing for 3 years... Maybe it's a secret cycle. ;)
Quoting 517. ncstorm:


absolutely NOTHING for my area..I'm sick of seeing only rain..


Hey I have forecast with 70-75F, with rain and tstorms.
We're in the same boat.
Now even N AL gets snow on the GFS



Nice jet streak though

On a Tuesday?



The Daily Calller, Really?

The Daily Caller is a news and opinion website based in Washington, D.C., United States. Founded by Tucker Carlson, a libertarian conservative political pundit, and Neil Patel, former adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney, The Daily Caller launched on January 11, 2010. In late 2012, it was reported that the site had quadrupled its page view and total audience and had become profitable without ever buying an advertisement for itself.
NAM still giving a slight Severe wx threat for Thursday in AL/NW GA

Most of the winds are parallel from 850 up... maybe slight veering at the lowest levels but winds are weaker down there.









Not much curve


And vertical lift without a big force at this time of year isn't going to happen.



www.wunderground.com/climate

Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
524. VR46L
Quoting 513. CycloneOz:
This is one of my main contentions about AGW...how the science is used for political purposes.

"Denialist" positions do not have this problem.

GLOBAL WARMING USED TO HELP RECRUIT AL-QUAEDA?




Thanks for posting that ..... Might get me out of trouble ... Have fun ! LOL

Quoting 487. DonnieBwkGA:


I'm waiting to see if the water temp rises to 64 or so or I won't do it ;)


I went surfing for about 3 hours in 63 degree water temps. I'll never do that again.

Quoting 518. GeorgiaStormz:


When I was little we consistently got ice storms every winter but less snow. (I remember very few ice storms but my parents remember them all and have the home videos to prove it)

When I was a young teenager we got snow consistently but little ice.

Now we get nothing for 3 years... Maybe it's a secret cycle. ;)


I grew up in northern Virginia just outside Washington D.C.
I remember years when we didn't get any snow, and I hated it.
Just loved those snow days.
526. SLU
Quoting 462. Tropicsweatherpr:
Soufriere volcano in Montserrat has been more active in the past few days.



Is that so?
Quoting 522. GeorgiaStormz:
NAM still giving a slight Severe wx threat for Thursday in AL/NW GA










Thursdays high temps as per nam




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
355 PM CST Tuesday Dec 3 2013

Short term...

a narrow band of showers along a persistent convergence zone
provided several rounds of rainfall from Thibodaux to Slidell. The
convergence appears to be lessening over time as the flow becomes
more unidirectional southwesterly this afternoon. Dewpoints have
lifted well into the 60s with concerns of advective fog overnight
if low level winds abate somewhat. Above normal temperatures and
humid conditions expected to linger through Thursday.

Long term...

not much has changed in thinking with expected next Arctic surge.
The models still indicate mostly a shunt of the coldest air with
the leading edge encountering resistance from warm tropical air
over the Gulf south come Friday. The front should move through the
forecast area Friday morning in shallow fashion then moderate with
isentropic lift processes as upper flow remains southwesterly
ahead of deepening trough to the West. Winter weather implications
will remain well north of the forecast area entire package.
However...a cold rain is expected to onset Friday and continue at
least into Sunday if not through early Tuesday before a re-
enforcement of surface high pressure takes place. Went pretty
close to GFS guidance on timing of features and temperatures...
though temperatures may be influenced by degree of cold air advection in
the area initially. In time...a light freeze may occur next
Tuesday or Wednesday but the air mass will likely moderate some
upon approach to the Gulf states. 24/rr
SpaceX Falcon 8 Launch, live link

Launch at 5:41 EDT

It's interesting how this massive arctic front will get shoved to the NW Corner of GA, stop, and 70 degree air will remain over GA as another massive front gathers before pushing it all thorugh....

It'll be warm here the whole time though.
Quoting 529. Patrap:
SpaceX Falcon 8 Launch, live link

Launch at 5:41 EDT


Thanks for reminder!
Quoting 529. Patrap:
SpaceX Falcon 8 Launch, live link

Launch at 5:41 EDT


Thanks for snapping me out of it!
Cold

teens here
Quoting 514. GeorgiaStormz:
Quite a massive streak... go winter




If this had existed before our thanksgiving system, a lot more places would have seen snow.... Or simply just the winter airmass that's coming.

I'm ready for the plains snowpack to build up.

BRING IT. No seriously, I would deeply appreciate it :)


That is a great video feed from Space-X.
Quoting 533. GeorgiaStormz:
Cold

teens here


While it's 5 degrees in AVL at that time. Too bad I'll be back in Raleigh at that time...
Quoting 535. CycloneOz:
That is a great video feed from Space-X.


Ditto
The last sunny day here was Saturday.. (and that was partly sunny at best sometimes)

I feel like when the sun comes out again next Tuesday it's gonna be one of those events where you're like , "Whoa.... I forgot what sunshine looked like... it's so bright".
Quoting 514. GeorgiaStormz:
Quite a massive streak... go winter




If this had existed before our thanksgiving system, a lot more places would have seen snow.... Or simply just the winter airmass that's coming.

I'm ready for the plains snowpack to build up.



Does that include sleet and ice? If not, Snow all the way down to Corpus Christi? Wow... But has me at over half a inch, I certainly would not complain if I got that once a year. :)
Quoting 534. Doppler22:

BRING IT. No seriously, I would deeply appreciate it :)




Technically it shouldn't snow till January here, but I'm still hoping...

Doesn't look like it so far though.

After this is all over it looks like a a zonal flow with mild temps south and colder temps north...a.k.a typical winter climatology.
A successful launch today would do wonders for the private space venture companies.
I watched a show today where scientists were linking volcanic activity to the Mini Ice Age.
The show also described how devestating the climate change was to different regions of the world.

The show blamed the mini iceage for millions of deaths around the world.



this countdown......5 minutes never seemed so long.

Hope this does not turn more ice than rain.

Quoting 547. hydrus:

Hope this does not turn more ice than rain.



I know in Ga it's rain...

I guess the first wave is rain and ice and other stuff comes mainly after.

Toward the plains is where the first wave is winter.
30 secs
Top snow totals by state as of 2pm CST Tuesday:

Idaho: 30" at Saddle Mountain (east-central Idaho)

Minnesota: 22" 5 miles north of Two Harbors (northeast Minn.)

Montana: 20" at Stuart Mountain (near Missoula)

South Dakota: 10.8" at Red Owl (western S.D.)

Wisconsin: 10.6" near Gordon (northwest Wis.)

Oregon: 9.5" near Flora (northeast Ore.)

Nevada: 8.5" in foothills near Sparks (Reno metro)

Wyoming: 8.0" near Lightning Flat (northeast Wyo.)
Winter Storm Cleon is already producing snow in the West and Midwest, and will continue to be a wintry headache through the week. In conjunction with Cleon's arrival, bitterly cold air is starting to invade parts of the West and Midwest.
And she's off!
Quoting 517. ncstorm:


absolutely NOTHING for my area..I'm sick of seeing only rain..
(pssst. It's not even Winter yet...)
2nd stage is off and running, very nice launch.
That was a very cool meco-1 event sequence on Space-X
Very awesome video of 2nd engine with Earth atmosphere halo from the sunset over the Atlantic.

Very impressive.

That's NASA quality.
Space-X pulls "Star Trek Into Darkness" launch.
Historical - white Christmas probability

That was awesome.. Got Noctolucent clouds. I'll have pics in a bit.
That was a beautiful launch... love the rocket being wrapped in a bluish color once it got high enough.
Speaking of "Star Trek Into Darkness," my friend and I went to see the 1st Star Trek and discussed the movie afterwards.

My point was they were going to have to address the "Khan Issue" at some point in the mission, but I was clueless as to how...because Kahn and crew were still frozen in space and undiscovered.

Now, I know how they solved the Khan Issue. It was creative...but they screwed up with the actor on just the point of "how he looked."

Mantalban did a very good job as the 1st Khan. I guess the writers did not want this character to be so overly dramatic this time around.
Quoting 548. GeorgiaStormz:


I know in Ga it's rain...

I guess the first wave is rain and ice and other stuff comes mainly after.

Toward the plains is where the first wave is winter.
If it does turn into an ice storm, there will be some problems. If it turns into a major ice storm, not only will there be major problems, but damage and possibly deaths.

2 inches of ice on a twig, illustrating the impact.

A tree covered in ice from the Northeastern Ice Storm of 2008.
SpaceX 8 had a successful climb to Orbit,up and over the Hill.



Glad Space X got off without a hitch. I can't wait until they start doing launches with humans on board.
Storm Chaser Jim Edds was on Jay Leno talking about Super Typhoon Haiyan Part 1
Quoting 565. AussieStorm:
Storm Chaser Jim Edds was on Jay Leno talking about Super Typhoon Haiyan Part 1


Pretty amazing that the local government wasn't warning locals to move inland.
The world is changing…
“…no individual weather event is due one-on-one to climate change…”
But the signs are not good. There’s more humidity in the atmosphere. Feeding energy into weather systems. Storms become more intense.
A small harvest of impressive video’s since the end of October:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nDeABTz0yw (Vlieland 2810 Steffan Jansen)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wrgrJwYdy8 (Tacloban 0811 Josh Morgerman)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFrgSVoJi1U (Illinois 1711 Marc Wells)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93ZDzQ5wnPI (Sardinia 1911 BBC)
While severe weather used to coincide on earth’s surface over about 1%, that share is rising…
North-west Europe seems to be target of another lash next Thursday. The 48 hour prognosis by ECMWF shows a large stormfield over the North Sea in white (+140 km/h). Around spring-tide…
 photo ECMWFSLP850Mbwindtue0312201348hsmall_zpse88b0294.jpg
Something I think you all will like.

Hello Faculty and Students,

I will be giving a dry-run talk on Thursday, Dec. 5, to practice for the presentation I am giving at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. My AGU talk is only 10 minutes, so my practice run-through will be similarly short, but with maybe a little more time for questions/discussion and/or explanation and background. The title of my talk at AGU is %u201CAn Analysis of Unique Aerial Photographs of Atmospheric Eddies in Marine Stratocumulus Clouds Downwind of Complex Terrain Along the California Coast%u201D by B.M. Muller, C. G. Herbster, and F. R. Mosher. All are invited to procrastinate from your end-of-semester responsibilities and give me some feedback on the talk to get ready for the real thing!







These eddy photographs were sent to me by former ERAU student and flight instructor Capt. Peter Weiss of Skywest Airlines, and have led to a research article being submitted to the scholarly journal, Monthly Weather Review. Despite the fact that similar eddies are seen quite frequently in satellite imagery, these apparently are the first close-up aerial photographs of such features taken from an airplane to appear in publication. This illustrates that pilots get a unique view of the atmosphere on a daily basis, that not even most meteorologists get to see. Hope to see you there.

Dr. Bradley M. Muller
Associate Professor of Meteorology
Applied Aviation Sciences Department
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
If you live in the DMV area do not get your hopes high..It will likely be another pathetic rain storm that will go unremembered the next day amounting to nothing much but perhaps a puddle or two on the ground.Oh the excitement..Where was this rain during spring when my allergies were running amok?.Oh yeah..no where to be found.And that pathetic arctic front won't even be significant it's practically laughable.Arctic..Yeah right.I've met people colder than that.Haha!
Quoting 569. washingtonian115:
If you live in the DMV area do not get your hopes high..It will likely be another pathetic rain storm that will go unremembered the next day amounting to nothing much but perhaps a puddle or two on the ground.Oh the excitement..Where was this rain during spring when my allergies were running amok?.Oh yeah..no where to be found.And that pathetic arctic front won't even be significant it's practically laughable.Arctic..Yeah right.I've met people colder than that.Haha!
Watch you all get an ice storm instead.



Spaceflight Now's Justin Ray captured this amazing view of the Falcon 9's contrail and staging.
Quoting 565. AussieStorm:
Storm Chaser Jim Edds was on Jay Leno talking about Super Typhoon Haiyan Part 1


I do not know what it was about Pensacola back when we were kids, but I personally know many guys that are fearless, but smart about it.

I know women from Pensacola the very same way.

Whatever it was, it was catching.

Pensacola back in the 60s, 70s, & 80s was amazing.

Not so much now...from what I can see.
Hope this is wrong.
I tell you what NASA satellites has taken some great pictures over the years.



Quoting 569. washingtonian115:
If you live in the DMV area do not get your hopes high..It will likely be another pathetic rain storm that will go unremembered the next day amounting to nothing much but perhaps a puddle or two on the ground.Oh the excitement..Where was this rain during spring when my allergies were running amok?.Oh yeah..no where to be found.And that pathetic arctic front won't even be significant it's practically laughable.Arctic..Yeah right.I've met people colder than that.Haha!
You, ma'am, have a bad case of winter withdrawal. Just get some rest from tracking these storms, go to your very happy place for a little while, then come back ;) 

As for Sunday, if ;) we see anything wintry, it will most likely be in the form of freezing rain.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Pretty amazing that the local government wasn't warning locals to move inland.


That's what it's like there. PAGASA has a "small" area of responsibility. I give friends and relatives sometimes 5 days in advance warning yet PAGASA gives 36-48hrs and didn't give strong enough warning about storm surge which killed most people. People there don't know what storm surge is. If the Govt or PAGASA said it's like a tsunami then 10,000's more people would of evacuated or moved to higher ground instead of trying to ride out the typhoon a few 100 yards from the shoreline. And as Jim points out, there was 225 people inside church a few 100 yards from the shore and it had 15ft of water through it. More needs to be done about education.
Quoting 566. Sfloridacat5:


Pretty amazing that the local government wasn't warning locals to move inland.

They hardly have the means to do such. Technology in the Philippines is not the same as technology in the United States.
Hey guys, I am a long time blogger and figured since it was a bit slow weather wise that i could enlist some help with a marketing class. I appreciate if anyone could take a brief survey for my Marketing Research Class. It's about grocery habits! I appreciate and please don't ban me i am just trying to enlist my friends that I blog with opinions!

Link
Well, I had a nice surprise when I came to do 2nd forecast for Grand Rapids. I'm ranked 20th in nation out of 1,500 or so college students, professors, grad students, broadcasters, and few NOAA employees. This is for the city of Grand Rapids, not the semester (I'm ranked 400th in that, which is not bad for freshman). I got to keep this up for 7 more days and hopefully I get the #1 ranking for the city which wins the trophy and another thing to add to my resume. Keep in mind, Day 1 in Grand Rapids isn't over for 7 more hours. Max temperature will rise as well as more rain so my ranking is likely to drop some... but I've never been ranked this high for a city before.

Quoting 403. cRRKampen:
Major Elbe/Hamburg storm surge coming up. This pattern is classic.
Also very high winds, comparable with the St Jude storm of 28th of October.


(See also post #567 above).

Hi fellow bloggers, calling in late night from Germany which indeed is going to see a very severe wind and winter storm at Thursday and Friday. Not so much at my place in the mid of the country but at its northern parts, especially in the islands and particularily in those regions with bayous of the Northern Sea. "Xaver", as the future storm will be named in Berlin, could be especially dangerous, as its winds with up to 180 kmh = 112 mph will coincide with a spring tide (tidal wave), creating a huge sturm surge in these bayous (City of Hamburg is at the end of one of them).

These weather conditions are somehow traumatic for (elderly) people in Germany as they remember the storm surge of 1962 which caused the death of 340 people (315 in the region of Hamburg).


Wilhelmsburg 1962 (Source wikipedia)

Of course, levees are built up higher now than in 1962 and weather forecasts improved a lot. Nevertheless its dangerous, and the storm may cause severe flooding and erosion in the islands and coastal regions of Germany and Denmark, apart from devastating winds which could reach far inland.

We'll see how it pans out, as those storms usually develop only a few hours before they hit.

Unfortunately I won't have much/any time to stick around here in the next days and weeks. So I hope I get some help from our fellow bloggers in Europe and from you all to cover this development, in case it becomes a significant one.

BBC published a little weather video today, but it's mostly focused on the British Islands.

This is the latest GFS pressure map (500 hpa), posted on a German weatherblog:



This is the alert map from wetteronline.de for Thursday (I'm in the not dangerous green zone):



WRF wind forecast (850hpa) for Thursday in knots:


(Saved image)


Forecast map published on German Spiegel Online.


I keep on looking to find some more decent stuff, but have to go to bed soon, sigh.
The recent heavy rains for a couple of weeks is changing the Ecology in my garden.
Found a Caiman about 18'' long in the concrete pond this afternoon.

I wonder if it will hang around, and what it will eat when it gets to be 7 feet long.
Quoting 582. pottery:
The recent heavy rains for a couple of weeks is changing the Ecology in my garden.
Found a Caiman about 18'' long in the concrete pond this afternoon.

I wonder if it will hang around, and what it will eat when it gets to be 7 feet long.


Wow... Not something I really want around me, personally.
Pcola - Obviously you found a picture of a baby one.
Quoting pcola57:


Ugly little sucker Pot..
From a quick read, they grow LARGE..
Maybe it will find it's way back to where ever it came from..
Good luck.. :)


They get to about 6'-8' long.
Not something I want to encourage to take up residence in my garden…..

They move around a lot in rainy weather, and the youngsters seem to like following watercourses upstream.

Anywhere there is a pond, you will eventually find them.

People keep getting bitten on the leg here, while working in the rice fields.
Not a good idea to step on one…...
Quoting 587. pottery:

They get to about 6'-8' long.
Not something I want to encourage to take up residence in my garden…..

They move around a lot in rainy weather, and the youngsters seem to like following watercourses upstream.

Anywhere there is a pond, you will eventually find them.

People keep getting bitten on the leg here, while working in the rice fields.
Not a good idea to step on one…...


And you better watch out for fluffy...
Pottery you live on the Caiman Islands, right?
Quoting 587. pottery:

They get to about 6'-8' long.
Not something I want to encourage to take up residence in my garden%u2026..

They move around a lot in rainy weather, and the youngsters seem to like following watercourses upstream.

Anywhere there is a pond, you will eventually find them.

People keep getting bitten on the leg here, while working in the rice fields.
Not a good idea to step on one%u2026...


You can sometimes find gators under the bridge at a campground south of Myrtle Beach. Sometimes gators can be seen in North Carolina as well. Got to watch out for them in swamps

EDIT: They can be found as far inland as my county in SE area of Triangle. I hear stories.

I wonder if it will hang around, and what it will eat when it gets to be 7 feet long.






you
Quoting 592. Bluestorm5:


You can sometimes find gators under the bridge at a campground south of Myrtle Beach. Sometimes gators can be seen in North Carolina as well. Got to watch out for them in swamps.


They can stay in the swamps, it's my backyard I have an issue with. I didn't realize that gators were as high up as North Carolina. Thought it got too cold for them that far north.
Quoting 594. Dakster:


They can stay in the swamps, it's my backyard I have an issue with. I didn't realize that gators were as high up as North Carolina. Thought it got too cold for them that far north.


Seen them myself whenever I go fishing on Cape Fear near Wilmington. Also...

http://www.herpsofnc.org/herps_of_NC/crocodilians /Allmis/All_mis.html
Quoting Dakster:


And you better watch out for fluffy...

LOL, and in the meantime I'm going to increase the insurance coverage on my wife.
She does not know about it. Yet.

heheheheheh

(I'm just kidding here, we went looking for it together a while ago with a light. Could not find it. Lots of hiding places in there%u2026)
Quoting 588. pcola57:


Xavier now..



Xavier Thurs. forecast..



Friday 958mb..



Thanks Marvin, great! I've copied one of the maps into my new blog with the recent stuff about "Xaver", although it will be a lonely place (*sniff*).
Will be interesting to look at the maps tomorrow.
Good night everybody! Barb.
Have a great evening all, and stay safe.

Pott is out>>>>>>>>>>>>
Climate Change's Biggest Threats Are Those We Aren't Ready For: Report
Posted: 12/03/2013 2:30 pm EST


Kate SheppardBecome
kate.sheppard@huffingtonpost.com




WASHINGTON -- Climatic changes -- and the results of those changes -- could occur within decades or even sooner, and they are becoming a greater concern for scientists, according to a new paper from the National Academy of Sciences.

"The most challenging changes are the abrupt ones," said James White, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder and chair of the report committee. White and several coauthors of the paper spoke at a press conference Tuesday morning.

The paper focuses on those impacts due to climate change that can happen most quickly. Among these are the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice that scientists have seen in the last decade and increased extinction pressure on plants and animals caused by the rapidly warming climate.

Many such changes, according to Tony Barnosky, a professor in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University of California, Berkeley, are "things that people in this room will be around to see." He emphasized that scientists are "really worried about what's going to happen in the next several years or decades."

"The planet is going to be warmer than most species living on Earth today have seen it, including humans," said Barnosky. "The pace of change is orders of magnitude higher than what species have experienced in the last tens of millions of years."

Other, more gradually occurring changes can still have abrupt impacts on the ecosystem and human systems, such as the loss of fisheries or shifts in where certain crops can be cultivated. Rapid loss of ice, for example, would mean that sea levels rise at a much faster rate than the current trend, which would have a significant effect on coastal regions. A 3-foot rise in the seas is easier to prepare for if it happens on a 100-year horizon than if it happens within 30 years.

"If you think about gradual change, you can see where the road is and where you're going," said Barnosky. "With abrupt changes and effects, the road suddenly drops out from under you."

The paper did offer two bits of good news. One, scientists don't believe that climate change is likely to shut down the Atlantic jetstream, a possibility that had been discussed in some scientific research. They also don't believe that large, rapid emissions of methane from ice and Arctic soil will pose a serious threat in the short term, as had been considered previously.

"Giant methane belches are not a big worry," said Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University and committee member. "These really are systems that will affect us in the future, but they don't look like they're going to jump really fast."

The paper recommends increased investment in an early-warning system for monitoring abrupt impacts, such as surveillance programs to facilitate closer tracking of melting ice and methane releases, for example. Right now, investment in those systems is lacking in the U.S., and monitoring programs have been cut in recent years.

"The time has come for us to quit talking and actually take some action," said White. He noted that in the modern age, there are cameras everywhere, yet "remarkably very few of those watching devices are pointed at the environment."

"We ought to be watching that with the same zeal we watch banks and other precious things."
Quoting 582. pottery:
The recent heavy rains for a couple of weeks is changing the Ecology in my garden.
Found a Caiman about 18'' long in the concrete pond this afternoon.

I wonder if it will hang around, and what it will eat when it gets to be 7 feet long.


your foot or maybe your hand. Take your pick.
Meanwhile, at SpaceX..


One last post about Argentina:

At least 4 dead in Argentina storm
03 de diciembre de 2013

Buenos Aires, Dec 3 (EFE).- At least four people died in a storm that lashed parts of Argentina with heavy rains and winds of more than 100 kph (62 mph), authorities said Tuesday.

Two of the dead were workers who lost their lives when the building they were working in collapsed in Banfield, Buenos Aires province.

The other two fatalities occurred in Villa del Rosario, in the central province of Cordoba, "as a consequence of the heavy rain and hail," town Mayor Roberto Herrera said. ...
Quoting 600. Patrap:
Climate Change's Biggest Threats Are Those We Aren't Ready For: Report
Posted: 12/03/2013 2:30 pm EST


Kate SheppardBecome
kate.sheppard@huffingtonpost.com




WASHINGTON -- Climatic changes -- and the results of those changes -- could occur within decades or even sooner, and they are becoming a greater concern for scientists, according to a new paper from the National Academy of Sciences.

"The most challenging changes are the abrupt ones," said James White, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder and chair of the report committee. White and several coauthors of the paper spoke at a press conference Tuesday morning.

The paper focuses on those impacts due to climate change that can happen most quickly. Among these are the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice that scientists have seen in the last decade and increased extinction pressure on plants and animals caused by the rapidly warming climate.

Many such changes, according to Tony Barnosky, a professor in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University of California, Berkeley, are "things that people in this room will be around to see." He emphasized that scientists are "really worried about what's going to happen in the next several years or decades."

"The planet is going to be warmer than most species living on Earth today have seen it, including humans," said Barnosky. "The pace of change is orders of magnitude higher than what species have experienced in the last tens of millions of years."

Other, more gradually occurring changes can still have abrupt impacts on the ecosystem and human systems, such as the loss of fisheries or shifts in where certain crops can be cultivated. Rapid loss of ice, for example, would mean that sea levels rise at a much faster rate than the current trend, which would have a significant effect on coastal regions. A 3-foot rise in the seas is easier to prepare for if it happens on a 100-year horizon than if it happens within 30 years.

"If you think about gradual change, you can see where the road is and where you're going," said Barnosky. "With abrupt changes and effects, the road suddenly drops out from under you."

The paper did offer two bits of good news. One, scientists don't believe that climate change is likely to shut down the Atlantic jetstream, a possibility that had been discussed in some scientific research. They also don't believe that large, rapid emissions of methane from ice and Arctic soil will pose a serious threat in the short term, as had been considered previously.

"Giant methane belches are not a big worry," said Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University and committee member. "These really are systems that will affect us in the future, but they don't look like they're going to jump really fast."

The paper recommends increased investment in an early-warning system for monitoring abrupt impacts, such as surveillance programs to facilitate closer tracking of melting ice and methane releases, for example. Right now, investment in those systems is lacking in the U.S., and monitoring programs have been cut in recent years.

"The time has come for us to quit talking and actually take some action," said White. He noted that in the modern age, there are cameras everywhere, yet "remarkably very few of those watching devices are pointed at the environment."

"We ought to be watching that with the same zeal we watch banks and other precious things."


It's important that they keep up with monitoring trends, but this "anything can go wrong in the future" vagueness is one of the things I do not even consider.

I am done considering hurricane season forecasts, too.

**ANYTHING MEASURABLE, SUCH AS CO2 EMISSIONS, CAN BE TAXED.**
Quoting 604. CycloneOz:


It's important that they keep up with monitoring trends, but this "anything can go wrong in the future" vagueness is one of the things I do not even consider.

I am done considering hurricane season forecasts, too.

**ANYTHING MEASURABLE, SUCH AS CO2 EMISSIONS, CAN BE TAXED.**


Farmers will have to put methane measuring devices on the backside of their cows?
"One, scientists don't believe that climate change is likely to shut down the Atlantic jetstream, a possibility that had been discussed in some scientific research."

Really? God bless Kate Sheppard. I bet she really tries.
Quoting 605. Dakster:


Farmers will have to put methane measuring devices on the backside of their cows?

Actually they burp it up from their stomachs.
Quoting 607. bappit:

Actually they burp it up from their stomachs.


Remind me not to get to close to a cows mouth then.

And are they going to measure human methane emissions too? So if eat more beans I get taxed more?
Alarmist?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quite a bit warmer today. Upper 70s inland and mid 70s on islands. Temps beginning to fall with a sea breeze. Already down in 60s on islands. JAX discussion says a foggy night and I believe it.