WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Super Typhoon Hagupit Closes in on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on December 05, 2014

Heavy rains and huge waves are already pounding the Philippines and over half a million people have been evacuated as Super Typhoon Hagupit closes in on the storm-weary islands. Hagupit briefly fell below the 150 mph wind threshold needed to maintain its "Super Typhoon" designation on Thursday, but is intensifying once again. At 9 am EST Friday, Hagupit was a very dangerous Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 915 mb. Hagupit--Filipino for "Smash"--exploded into a mighty Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb on Wednesday, but weakened on Thursday due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, plus an eyewall replacement cycle that caused the inner eyewall to collapse and be replaced by an outer eyewall with a larger diameter. An eyewall replacement cycle often causes a temporary weakening of a tropical cyclone, followed by a re-strengthening as the storm consolidates around its new eyewall. That appears to be the case with Hagupit, which microwave satellite images show has now finished its eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite loops showed that the typhoon had a larger 17-mile diameter eye surrounded by very intense eyewall thunderstorms that were expanding in areal coverage and intensity early Friday morning (U.S. time). However, this intensification process had halted by late Friday morning. Hagupit is over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F) and is under moderate wind shear of 15 knots. The eyewall is not as intense on the south side, due to shearing action of strong upper-level winds from the southeast.



Figure 1. Visible (top) and infrared (bottom) VIIRS images of Super Typhoon Hagupit from the Suomi satellite at 04:40 UTC December 4, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA/Colorado State.

Forecast for Hagupit: not as bad as Haiyan, but still devastating
Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall on November 7, 2013 in Samar Island in the Philippines as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center--winds of 190 mph. Haiyan left 7,300 people dead or missing in the Philippines, destroying about 1 million houses and displacing some 4 million people. Leyte Island's city of Tacloban (population 200,000) suffered the greatest casualties, thanks to a 20+’ storm surge. With warm waters and moderate wind shear expected until landfall, but with increasing interaction with land, Hagupit will likely be a Category 4 storm with sustained winds between 135 - 155 mph at landfall. This is far weaker than Haiyan was, but no cause for celebration. Extreme damaging winds, a large and deadly storm surge, and torrential rains causing massive flooding and dangerous mudslides are all of great concern from Hagupit. Wind damage and storm surge damage are primarily of concern on Samar Island, which is likely to receive a direct hit from the eyewall of the powerful storm; Hagupit will likely make landfall about 50 - 100 miles north of where Haiyan hit last year. However, the greatest danger from the storm might be its rains. Hagupit will move very slowly though the Philippines at about 5 - 10 mph, which will allow torrential rains to fall for a long period of time. Widespread rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches can be expected, with some areas receiving 15 - 25 inches. Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains will affect the most heavily populated part the country. In addition, Special lahar warnings have been put out for mudslides along the flanks of two volcanoes along Hagupit's path, Mayan and Bulusan, whose flanks have unstable ash deposits from recent eruptions.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation from Super Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Friday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Storm chaser James Reynolds is in the Philippines, and reported on Friday morning (U.S. time) that high waves were already pounding the east coast of Samar, lapping at roads and houses. He will will be offering updates from Western Samar via his Twitter feed.

Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a new blog post: The Philippines Has a History of Catastrophic, Fast-Moving Storm Surges.



Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:

- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.

- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.

- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.

- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.

Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

a half million people evacuated.......ouch!
Thanks, Dr. Masters. My thoughts are with those in the path of Hagutip.

Rainfall rates up to 45-50mm/hr have been observed in the southwestern eyewall. Torrential indeed...

a great loop from yesterday:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/data/stettner /Hagupit/Hagupit1kmVis.html
Thanks Jeff...
storm one update at 10:51am Wintry Mix For Northern New England Friday Night Into Saturday Night

The Low pressure system that develops over the Midwest Friday will spread moisture well out ahead across the Northeast Friday night into Saturday. This will result in a wintry mess for Interior New England during that time frame.




Current Winter Radar at 11:39 AM EST on December 05, 2014
Significant Winter Event Possible for the Northeast Tuesday into Thursday Morning storm two!

The suite of computer model guidance is still showing considerable uncertainty for the winter weather system that could produce a significant snow storm for portions of the Great Lakes through Interior New England Tuesday into Wednesday.

Much of this uncertainty has to do with the way in which the models handle various features that are still a continent away. The image below shows these players on Sunday afternoon per the ECMWF operational model run. The challenge is how and when and even if these features will all come together to develop a strong East Coast storm (ECMWF solution) or a less impactful winter event (GFS solution) for portions of the Northeast.

The impacts from this system will occur in the Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning time frame, from the Eastern Great Lakes early on through New England Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
Climate change already showing effects at Kennedy Space Center

The effects of climate change are already showing up in places from Miami to Alaska, scientists say, but two University of Florida geologists are focusing their attention on one especially noteworthy and vulnerable piece of waterfront real estate: Kennedy Space Center. .................................................. . Adams and associate professor of geology John Jaeger, who have been studying Cape Canaveral's dunes and beach since 2009, say the impacts became most apparent after Hurricane Sandy.

"Sandy got a lot of press up north, but it really did a tremendous amount of damage at Cape Canaveral," Jaeger said. "Areas that had previously been relatively stable for decades … suddenly they were gone."


Link
Thank you for the new informations, Doc (very interesting article of Hal Needham to which you gave the link).

Probably most will still remember the terrifying footage of the stormsurge, caused by Haiyan last year in Hernani, Eastern Samar (and elsewhere). As Hagupit is going to hit the same coastline, one can only hope that no one chooses to ride out the storm in those places.

The surge comes in at 0:40.


Samar residents evacuate to caves
ABS-CBNnews.com, Posted at 12/05/2014 7:11 PM | Updated as of 12/05/2014 7:11 PM
MANILA - Some residents of Marabut, Samar flocked to caves in preparation for Typhoon 'Ruby' (International name: 'Hagupit').
Carrying food and other personal belongings, some residents climbed rock formations in Marabut to reach the caves, which serve as tourist attractions of the town.
They chose to evacuate to the caves to protect themselves from possible storm surges caused by Ruby. ...

With photos.
NASA's Experimental Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) came to a successful conclusion when it landed on the Pacific Ocean on Dec 5th, 2014. The flight lasted about 4 hours 20 minutes.

Drones and Orion itself provided incredible video from the minutes leading up to splashdown.






Just added this to the blog, hope y'all can help out!



Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:

- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.

- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.

- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.

- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.

Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.

Jeff Masters
Thanks Dr. Masters. Another great post. This is two years in a row for a strong typhoon in the same spot. I hope the people still living in tents there have been secured. At this point, all we can do is hope for the best for them.
Thanks dok!
Here is the radar for my area right now.
The *heavy* rain to my southwest will soon get me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yikes!


Wow! Superstorm Nuri's descendant maybe? I mean, 927mb?
# 10

People helping people during times of disaster is a Great and WUnderful thing.


A Look back at Portlight images after 6 years now on wunderground.com

And many thanx to Dr. Jeff Masters and the whole portlight community for another great year of Support


Portlight on wunderground GOOGLE images

Quoting 14. 62901IL:


Wow! Superstorm Nuri's descendant maybe? I mean, 927mb?


Sure looks like it. The pressure's about the same too.
Looks like the Euro was (unfortunately) the only one that got it right about Hagupit (Ruby). Most of the other models had it recurving to the northeast.
Thanks for the update Doc!
Quoting 14. 62901IL:


Wow! Superstorm Nuri's descendant maybe? I mean, 927mb?


Yuk Wednesday is going to be quite a day for moi !

Quoting VR46L:


Yuk Wednesday is going to be quite a day for moi !

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Sure looks like it. The pressure's about the same too.

Ah, yes. What shall we call this one?
Quoting 19. VR46L:



Yuk Wednesday is going to be quite a day for moi !





keep an eye out in the sky......
Quoting 20. 62901IL:


Ah, yes. What shall we call this one?


LOL .... I am sure Berlin will have a name for it in time


Yoboi

LMAO !!!!
Quoting 11. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes!




Yep...That should definitely amplify the Aleutian Vortex!
Quoting 20. 62901IL:


Ah, yes. What shall we call this one?


Irun because it's Nuri backwards. XD
Looking through some of the research of how climate change is effecting Kennedy Space Center there was a video that UF had made.

The GEM is truly truly outrageous

That is devastating news for the Philippines; the equivalent of a two year back to back major strike on the same general area. Imagine two back to back Andrews or Katrinas right in the middle of the recovery and reconstruction period a year later.
Quoting 26. smog00:

The GEM is truly truly outrageous


Lololol.
Quoting 19. VR46L:
Yuk Wednesday is going to be quite a day for moi !

Good luck to you! GFS Windmap (950hpa) for Tuesday shows that the British Isles should get quite a blow out of it!

Source.
And here the map for Wednesday: really stormy!

Edit: This is what the "Euro" has to say about the winds 850hPa/kmh Tuesday and Wednesday in the North Atlantic:



Sorry for this longer deviation from the blog topic.
--------------------

Meanwhile the 12z run from ECMWF (Euro) for Hagupit is available, a tad more north than the previous one, but the model still sees the typhoon making a little dive to the south (at least below 12N) before making landfall, than grazing Tacloban to the north before turning more northwest.

You may look at it for yourself here. Took me a while to figure out how this WU map works. On the right side you find a layer named "Model data"; click the little gear, then select the models and the run. On the bottom of the main map there are some panels to select the time or timeframe you want to see (single or loop). May take a while to load.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)


Comparing possible landfall location for Super Typhoon Hagupit with Typhoon Hayian.
Currently Hagupit is slightly more than 1 degree of latitude north of where Hayian made landfall.

The center of Super Typhoon Hayian made landfall just south of 11 degrees north latitude.



Hagupit is currently just north of 12 degrees North Latitude and gradually gaining latitude (at the moment).
" ...staffed by members of the wunderground community."

I find it interesting that the actual names are not posted anymore as they have been in the past. Probably a good idea in today's environment...
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds
62901IL, did you name the ice storm?
Taz, yer fav is noted.

SCENE TYPE: PINHOLE EYE

also,weakening Flag is ON.




Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 DEC 2014 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 12:12:54 N Lon : 127:58:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.4 degrees


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/22WP.GI F
Anyone want to come to my blog and talk about Hagupit???

Indeed thankfully weakening.
Quoting barbamz:

Good luck to you! GFS Windmap (950hpa) for Tuesday shows that the British Isles should get quite a blow out of it!

Source.
And here the map for Wednesday: really stormy!

Edit: This is what the "Euro" has to say about the winds 850hPa/kmh Tuesday and Wednesday in the North Atlantic:



Sorry for this longer deviation from the blog topic.
--------------------

Meanwhile the 12z run from ECMWF (Euro) for Hagupit is available, a tad more north than the previous one, but the model still sees the typhoon making a little dive to the south (at least below 12N) before making landfall, than grazing Tacloban to the north before turning more northwest.

You may look at it for yourself here. Took me a while to figure out how this WU map works. On the right side you find a layer named "Model data"; click the little gear, then select the models and the run. On the bottom of the main map there are some panels to select the time or timeframe you want to see (single or loop). May take a while to load.
Hi Barb. Thanks for all the work with the maps. My computer is just too old and crotchety (like its owner) to get the WUndermaps to work. I don't think any post about weather is off topic. While Hagupit is certainly the top story, weather still goes on in the rest of the world. I can see now is not the time to schedule a vacation trip to Iceland though.

I think the GFS still has the recurve right. Hagupit is going to turn to the NW just before it makes landfall and then run up the islands until it gets to Luzon and Manila. If it had started its turn 300 miles sooner, it would be a different and better picture for the Philippines today. I hope at least that the storm will weaken significantly before it gets to Manila. Unfortunately, it looked like it was past its peak last night, only to see it come roaring back this morning. Storms like this just don't die easily. :-(
Quoting smog00:
The GEM is truly truly outrageous

Yes, it is. I can confidently say that Tuesday's surface map will bear no resemblance to the GEM model. I sometimes wonder if the people running the models ever look at the output when something as fanciful as this get forecasted.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Comparing possible landfall location for Super Typhoon Hagupit with Typhoon Hayian.
Currently Hagupit is slightly more than 1 degree of latitude north of where Hayian made landfall.

The center of Super Typhoon Hayian made landfall just south of 11 degrees north latitude.



Hagupit is currently just north of 12 degrees North Latitude and gradually gaining latitude (at the moment).
At this point, I wish it would just go straight west. No offense to the people in its path, but this the least bad of a number of bad alternatives. Having the storm travel NW through the islands on to Manila is probably the worst of all the bad outcomes. I promise not to complain the next time it's too hot or too cold for me. It just another day in paradise for me compared to the poor people in the Philippines.
Quoting sar2401:
At this point, I wish it would just go straight west. No offense to the people in its path, but this the least bad of a number of bad alternatives. Having the storm travel NW through the islands on to Manila is probably the worst of all the bad outcomes. I promise not to complain the next time it's too hot or too cold for me. It just another day in paradise for me compared to the poor people in the Philippines.


Hopefully the system will continue to weaken.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

... I think the GFS still has the recurve right. Hagupit is going to turn to the NW just before it makes landfall and then run up the islands until it gets to Luzon and Manila. ...


Hey Sar. Actually, according to the WUmap the 12z GFS is very similar to the one of ECMWF. The turn to the northwest should occur not until (north of) Biliran. GFS and the Euro see Hagupit missing Manila to the south.

I have to go for a while ... Have a good afternoon over there, and of course all the best for the Philippines.
Quoting 43. HaoleboySurfEC:

Huge surf for Ireland.




Yep !

should be an interesting few days next week
JTWC has the storm hitting Manila, but JMA and PAGASA have it going well south. What are the latest models saying?
It's looking increasingly likely that a major storm will affect portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the middle of next week. The models have a non tropical low pressure system forming in the Western Atlantic that moves north and northwest into the Northeast region occluding as it becomes vertically stacked with the mid level energy coming down from Canada. Such a track and strength very much favors deep interior snow as the fast onshore flow would be warm advecting into the coastal states despite freezing temperatures above the 925mb level. The ECMWF shows surface winds speeds coming off the still warm Atlantic waters from 20mph to 30+mph closer to the coast and an 850mb flow in excess of 40 knots.
Quoting 40. sar2401:

Yes, it is. I can confidently say that Tuesday's surface map will bear no resemblance to the GEM model. I sometimes wonder if the people running the models ever look at the output when something as fanciful as this get forecasted.


It's too far west and probably too intense but I expect a storm out there, a little further east, and weaker but still a big player for the Northeast on Tuesday. The moderately blocking high to the north is likely to verify pretty much as is but a little weaker too. A GEM verification would be a big rain event for DC and a substantial snow event for the PA appalachians and northeast of there. More likely is a lot less rain, colder and breezy. If we had decent cold air available there would be snow potential too for us but.. a lot of wished conclusions that won't happen are preceded by "if only"
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
coming from the old site for a change.
Quoting Drakoen:
It's looking increasingly likely that a major storm will affect portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the middle of next week. The models have a non tropical low pressure system forming in the Western Atlantic that moves north and northwest into the Northeast region occluding as it becomes vertically stacked with the mid level energy coming down from Canada. Such a track and strength very much favors deep interior snow as the fast onshore flow would be warm advecting into the coastal states despite freezing temperatures above the 925mb level. The ECMWF shows surface winds speeds coming off the still warm Atlantic waters from 20mph to 30+mph closer to the coast and an 850mb flow in excess of 40 knots.





nice storm
Hagupit is not well. A fairly substantial shot of dry air originating from the South China Sea has been entrained by the system, taking out most of the eastern eyewall.



Rapidscat missed


This does not help much either :

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, AND THE SPREAD IN MODEL SPEEDS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
Just rolling on to the west.
As Drak alluded to, we've got potential for a high end winter weather event midweek next week. ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are all in reasonable agreement. Coastal rain, but potential for heavy inland snows. From the Gray, ME NWS discussion:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUN-MON WITH SUNNY BUT COLD
TEMPS.

THE POTENTIAL MAJOR EVENT AND ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MODELS
TRYING TO DEVELOP A MAJOR SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FOR THE TUE-
WED AND PSBLY EVEN INTO EARLY THU TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z EURO
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO ITS PAST SIMILAR SCENERIO OF A STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
PICKING UP THE LEFTOVER WEAKENING S/WV SITTING OFF THE COAST FROM
THE SRN STREAM. THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS ALLOWS THE RAPID
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
ENERGY ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM HUGGING THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND MAKE FOR A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE CONTINUITY OF THE EURO CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED WHILE THE GFS
NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND APPEARS TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
ITS INITIALIZATION. CMC MODELS ALSO SHOWING A MAJOR EVENT. IF THE
EURO IS CLOSE TO BEING CORRECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF WOULD EXPECTED
AND THE NEXT PROBLEM WOULD ALSO BE THE PTYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DISCUSSION HERE AND SEE IF THE EURO
SCENERIO CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. STAYED
VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS AND TEMPS IN THE TUE-
THU TIME FRAME. POPS ON WED AND THU MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AS
THEY WILL BE TRACK DEPENDANT.
Snow during the Winter in Maine is like rain during the Summer in Florida. If it didn't happen regularly, something isn't right.
So I decided to look up katabatic (not that I didn't know about katabatic winds, just bored) and got katabasis instead. Pretty cool word.

"Katabasis or catabasis (from Greek κατὰ "down" and βαίνω "go") is a descent of some type, such as moving downhill, or the sinking of the winds or sun, a military retreat, or a trip to the underworld or a trip from the interior of a country down to the coast. There exist multiple related meanings in poetry, rhetoric, and modern psychology."

So I continue my katabasis into ennui.
Looks like the center is trying to wrap a bit tighter.

I know many are talking about Hagupit or the potential for a strong coastal storm next week, but I found this interesting and worth a mention/share.

Cascadia Fault eerily quiet
18Z GFS at 102 hours
18Z GFS at 120 hours
Finally looking at the "katabatic wind" article in Wikipedia.

"Not all downslope winds are katabatic. For instance, winds such as the foehn, Chinook, or bergwind, are rain shadow winds where air driven upslope on the windward side of a mountain range drops its moisture and descends leeward drier and warmer."

Seems we have a non-example of a katabatic wind going in Greenland in the graphic TA posted.
66. Inyo
yeah the GFS is starting to change its tune. It's a bit warmer... but it also seems it has had a warm bias lately.

I hope it has a warm bias for the little storm for tomorrow. For our location in north-central Vermont the GFS has a bunch of rain with snow on both ends, and the Euro is mostly snow. I love rain in the spring, summer, and fall, but by this late in the season rain is no fun. it ruins snow (not that we have much now) and then it ends up turning into ice. Either as it falls as an ice storm, or inevitably the next evening when a cold front comes in.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


It's too far west and probably too intense but I expect a storm out there, a little further east, and weaker but still a big player for the Northeast on Tuesday. The moderately blocking high to the north is likely to verify pretty much as is but a little weaker too. A GEM verification would be a big rain event for DC and a substantial snow event for the PA appalachians and northeast of there. More likely is a lot less rain, colder and breezy. If we had decent cold air available there would be snow potential too for us but.. a lot of wished conclusions that won't happen are preceded by "if only"
Yeah, I expect a low out there also but, given where it's coming from, I can't see it that far inland either. It still looks like it will be too warm for any snow by you, and I don't think we see anything significant until land starts to meet the low, from the Massachusetts coast north. We'll see, since the low hasn't formed yet, and I've kind of given up on the idea that models give us much heads up lately.
Quoting Inyo:
yeah the GFS is starting to change its tune. It's a bit warmer... but it also seems it has had a warm bias lately.

I hope it has a warm bias for the little storm for tomorrow. For our location in north-central Vermont the GFS has a bunch of rain with snow on both ends, and the Euro is mostly snow. I love rain in the spring, summer, and fall, but by this late in the season rain is no fun. it ruins snow (not that we have much now) and then it ends up turning into ice. Either as it falls as an ice storm, or inevitably the next evening when a cold front comes in.
I imagine the ski resorts would love to see a big snow so they get set up for the Christmas holidays. I don't think this one is going to be it, but it does look like we're in for a pattern change by about the 16th. We should start to see a changeover to more cold air and a big trough forming that should allow lows to slide east and give you some repeated snows. I don't quite know how that will affect us in the SE, since it looks like a big high sets in over the SE and isn't going anywhere fast after the low pushes far to the north. We really need some rain but it's not looking good for the next seven days.
Looking at El Niño’s past to predict its future
Date:
December 5, 2014
Source:
Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary:
Scientists see a large amount of variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when looking back at climate records from thousands of years ago. Without a clear understanding of what caused past changes in ENSO variability, predicting the climate phenomenon’s future is a difficult task. A new study shows how this climate system responds to various pressures, such as changes in carbon dioxide and ice cover, in one of the best models used to project future climate change.



Some key findings of the new simulations of El Niño over the past 21,000 years:

Strengthening ENSO over the current interglacial period, caused by increasing positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks
ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges during early deglaciation
Increasing deglacial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations tend to weaken ENSO
Retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO


Link
Quoting MahFL:
This does not help much either :

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, AND THE SPREAD IN MODEL SPEEDS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
No, it doesn't. It appears that the models are not coming together any better and we're two days from landfall. I was hoping we'd have a better handle on the track and intensity of Hagupit but it seems we're still sitting and hoping things get more clear...
Quoting 45. VR46L:
Yep !

should be an interesting few days next week.
Is Lahinch one of the worst places for big surf to soak the buildings?


View on YouTube
Pretty cool image
Antarctica’s katabatic winds forming long lines of ice (grease ice) extending offshore.

Link
Quoting 65. bappit:

Finally looking at the "katabatic wind" article in Wikipedia.

"Not all downslope winds are katabatic. For instance, winds such as the foehn, Chinook, or bergwind, are rain shadow winds where air driven upslope on the windward side of a mountain range drops its moisture and descends leeward drier and warmer."

Seems we have a non-example of a katabatic wind going in Greenland in the graphic TA posted.

Yeah, those strong winds along the Greenland coast look more like the result of a barrier jet to me.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hagupit is not well. A fairly substantial shot of dry air originating from the South China Sea has been entrained by the system, taking out most of the eastern eyewall.



That's a good thing. If nothing else, it should start reducing the intensity again before landfall.
The 18z GFS is almost identical to the 12z run, FWIW.



18z Wave Watch model shows significant wave heights above 60ft.

Quoting Xulonn:
Is Lahinch one of the worst places for big surf to soak the buildings?


View on YouTube
I don't know, but this van tried surfing and didn't do too well. :-)

Quoting 71. Xulonn:

Is Lahinch one of the worst places for big surf to soak the buildings?


View on YouTube


The Promenade in Portstewart in county Derry gets hammered when the storms are really bad , I used to live in that town when I lived in the North (UK)( Always amuses me I live more north before and after I lived there in Southern Ireland (ROI) Its very Near the Giants Causeway and Royal Portrush Golf Club that Graeme McDowell and Darren Clarke play from




As you can see there is a sea wall to keep out the Atlantic








The Giants Causeway



rain coming soon to new york city to boston


rain for me i live in new haven
Northeast Coastal Storm: Snow, Heavy Rain, High Winds Possible Next Week Published Dec 5 2014 04:23 PM EST
The Possibilities
Low pressure is expected to form along the western end of a stalled frontal boundary near or offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast later Monday into Tuesday.

At the same time, a cold front will sweep eastward through the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast.

The interaction and intensity of each of these features remains in question this far out, holding the key to all the important foreast details.
There appear to be two possible scenarios right now:

1) Offshore low doesn't develop appreciably or heads out to sea. Rain amounts near the coast and interior snow remain rather unimpressive, except in eastern Canada.

2) Offshore low strengthens. Rain (near coast), interior snow amounts are heavier, and winds are stronger.





Non-categorized event in Maldives on Friday, 05 December, 2014 at 20:32 (08:32 PM) UTC.
Description
The Maldives declared a state of emergency after a fire at the capital's only water sewage treatment plant has led to a shortage of drinking water. About 100,000 people in Male, the capital, have been left without safe water to drink from the tap, according to Mohamed Shareef, a government minister. The Maldivian government has appealed for aid from India, Sri Lanka, the United States and China. India is sending five planes with water and two ships with parts that can help fix the machinery at the plant, according to Syed Akbaruddin, an Indian foreign ministry spokesman. The first plane with water arrived on Friday afternoon. "Last night, the Maldives foreign minister contacted us saying they were facing a grave emergency," Mr Akbaruddin said. "For the next seven to eight days they are going to face extreme difficulty with water so they requested all assistance." The Maldivian Red Crescent has deployed 24 staff and 60 volunteers to distribute water. The Maldives, a group of 1,190 coral islands southwest of India, has a population of about 400,000 people.
Quoting 66. Inyo:

yeah the GFS is starting to change its tune. It's a bit warmer... but it also seems it has had a warm bias lately.

I hope it has a warm bias for the little storm for tomorrow. For our location in north-central Vermont the GFS has a bunch of rain with snow on both ends, and the Euro is mostly snow. I love rain in the spring, summer, and fall, but by this late in the season rain is no fun. it ruins snow (not that we have much now) and then it ends up turning into ice. Either as it falls as an ice storm, or inevitably the next evening when a cold front comes in.
NASA, the U.S. Navy and Lockheed Martin recovery crews aboard the USS Anchorage witnessed the Orion spacecraft as it splashed down in the Pacific Ocean.






FORECAST: Boston | NYC | Philly) 6:21 PM EST on December 05, 2014

Eventually, rain would changeover to snow, as the cold air aloft chills the column of air over the I-95 corridor later Tuesday into Wednesday.

However, snowfall totals from Boston to New York, Philly and Washington, D.C. are expected to be minimal, if they occur at all.

The heaviest snowfall potential will line up over the interior Northeast from northern Pennsylvania to New York's Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valleys, Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains, with 6 inches or more possible in these areas.

Quoting 73. 1900hurricane:


Yeah, those strong winds along the Greenland coast look more like the result of a barrier jet to me.

To the north yes, but I'm referring to that intense northwest flow to the south. The deep low pressure forecast will induce both phenomena. I took a look at the Danish met site and they're predicting hurricane force winds on the south coast coming from the direction of the ice sheet. That's going to push up some waves.

82. Skyepony (Mod)
11:12 PM GMT on December 05, 2014


Description
The Maldives declared a state of emergency after a fire at the capital's only water sewage treatment plant has led to a shortage of drinking water. About 100,000 people in Male, the capital, have been left without safe water to drink from the tap, according to Mohamed Shareef, a government minister.


I would point out that the fire was at the sewage treatment plant , which means in the Maldives . The largest source of fresh water is one's toilet. Just like Wichita Falls, Texas.

Obviously morning has broken in the Philippines:

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 36 Min. Vor 36 Minuten
Morning from Catbalogan! 3G connection not great. #typhoon #Hagupit #RubyPH still on course for Samar per JMA

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 17 Min. Vor 17 Minuten
Comms are unreliable right now so there's a high chance I'll drop off radar for a while, have satellite phone #typhoon #Hagupit #RubyPH

Twitter-Source.
Quoting Patrap:
NASA, the U.S. Navy and Lockheed Martin recovery crews aboard the USS Anchorage witnessed the Orion spacecraft as it splashed down in the Pacific Ocean.








It was an absolutely epic mission. Watched the whole thing from launch, to apogee, to landing. I don't think we've ever seen this flawless of a test flight.
Quoting 73. 1900hurricane:


Yeah, those strong winds along the Greenland coast look more like the result of a barrier jet to me.


What is a barrier jet, please? A blocked one? Sure the jet stream is involved as usual, and there is some barrier further to the east (map for Monday):

I don't care about the storm next week.It'll be just like the other 2.
Brace for Typhoon "Ruby" impact
It's no longer a supertyphoon but strongest to hit PH this year
Dona Z. Pazzibugan, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 1:22 AM | Saturday, December 6th, 2014
Powerful Typhoon "Ruby" (international name: Hagupit) slams into Eastern Visayas this afternoon for a four-day crossing of central Philippines, affecting the capital Metro Manila, that is likely to affect 32 million people - a third of the country's population.
Ruby will cut slowly across the Visayas while affecting the Bicol region and southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, moving west-northwest at 13 kph toward the western seaboard.
That is so slow that Pagasa said it expected Ruby to clear the country as late as Wednesday morning. ...




--------------------------



This satellite product is lagging behind for some hours; so far it shows some slight movement towards WNW which could be bad for Manila later on if this continues.
Give it about a week and you'll start to see the footage from some of the big wave surf breaks in and around Ireland. Someone is going to be out there going for it. There are some massive breaks off the Irish coast. They hold incredibly massive swells. I think we may see some of the biggest waves ever ridden come out of that part of the world...just waiting for the right storm.

Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 18z GFS is almost identical to the 12z run, FWIW.



18z Wave Watch model shows significant wave heights above 60ft.


I wrote a blog mostly on Hagupit's expected surge. It has a long list of surge forecasts for individual areas expecting 3 meters or more, with links to maps of expected inundations & a link to a full list.

Santa Rita, Samar has the highest expected surge at this time at 4.7 - 5.7 meters (15 1/2 - 19 3/4 feet). Here is their map, click to make larger..



Good night with a pretty dramatic video from Italy - probably from the island of Elba (you might now: where Napoleon once was exiled) showing severe flash flooding (several reports on European websites). Really nothing new for the countries in this part of the Mediterranean this year ;-)

For maybe already two weeks cut-off low Xandra is still around in this area - spawning little "medicanes" (tropical like systems) from time to time. Currently there is another attempt, but the swirl at Corsica remains weak. Still a lot of moist air is pushed into nearby shores.




Forecast map for Saturday.

--------------------

This morning our Aussi posted a much appreciated photo (caught by himself) of an amazing shelf cloud in Sydney. Meanwhile several videos of this event are online. Here is one of them:



-----------------------

Enough posts for tonight from me. --- Compassionate thoughts to the Philippines!

Inside, And Kicked Out Of, ALEC’s Secretive Policy Summit


This week the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a secretive free-market lobbying group that brings together conservative politicians and major corporate interests, is holding its annual policy summit at the Hyatt Regency in the nation’s capital. On Thursday, ThinkProgress ventured down to the scene to try and get into the Energy, Environment, and Agriculture subcommittee meeting after being denied a media pass earlier in the week. Shortly after inquiring about either attending the closed-door meeting or briefly talking with John Eick, director of the Energy, Environment and Agriculture (EEA) task force — who was standing just a few feet away — ThinkProgress was ushered two floors up back to the lobby.

Link
Quoting 95. Skyepony:

I wrote a blog mostly on Hagupit's expected surge. It has a long list of surge forecasts for individual areas expecting 3 meters or more, with links to maps of expected inundations & a link to a full list.

Santa Rita, Samar has the highest expected surge at this time at 4.7 %u2013 5.7 meters (15 1/2 - 193/4 feet). Here is their map, click to make larger..






Umm, that's just north of Tacloban at the same fjord. A hit from the backside.
Amusing Pictures and Video from Ireland.

It is Ironic that I am a Irishman, who lives on Leyte, The Philippines.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
9:00 AM JST December 6 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (925 hPa) located at 12.1N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.9N 124.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
48 HRS: 12.5N 121.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Luzon)
72 HRS: 12.8N 119.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
just below the "VIOLENT" stage of a named typhoon
Seeing pockets of 25 inch + totals on that forecast map. But you’d better believe that wind driven storm surge is going to be a rather rough one. Not so bad as Haiyan, though. But more than bad enough.

First, our forecast models under estimate rainfall all over the world. Second, who can stand under 2 feet of rain in one day ? And it don't matter if wind is blowing if you get 2 feet of rain in one day.

It's the rain fall that kills people , and speed that it falls. Even if there is no cyclone.
Quoting 89. CybrTeddy:



It was an absolutely epic mission. Watched the whole thing from launch, to apogee, to landing. I don't think we've ever seen this flawless of a test flight.


We followed it live in Lowercal's entry.



T'was a good day for the whole Lockheed/Martin, Nasa team most assuredly.
Quoting 91. barbamz:



What is a barrier jet, please? A blocked one? Sure the jet stream is involved as usual, and there is some barrier further to the east (map for Monday):



Basically whenever windflow encounters higher terrain and is forced to flow parallel to it. It's a common process in cold air damming, but is also quite notable with storms near Greenland. Here's a paper about them.

Tip Jets and Barrier Winds: A QuikSCAT Climatology of High Wind Speed Events around Greenland

nasty



heavy rain in new haven,conn at 9:45pm on december 5 2014
Forecast: Increasing Danger for Philippines

Hagupit Forecast Path
PAGASA has issued public storm warning signals for 36 geographic areas, spanning from southeastern portions of Luzon (the main northern island) through the Visayas (central Philippines) and northeastern parts of Mindanao (the main southern island).

The island of Samar in the Visayas nearest the initial arrival of the landfall was raised to Public Storm Warning Signal No. 3, meaning winds of 100-185 kph (62 to 115 mph) are expected "in at least 18 hours."

PAGASA also placed a large part of this region in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2, meaning 61 to 100 kph (38 to 62 mph) are possible "in at least 24 hours." Metro Cebu, the second-largest metropolitan area in the country after Metro Manila, is included in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2.
But my joke was removed in 2.5 seconds right?.lol.
Yada, Yada yada,



Typhoon Hagupit at 9:30 EST on December 05, 2014 winds 140 mph
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

But my joke was removed in 2.5 seconds right?.lol.


Joke, what joke.....lol
59/63 with low stratus/fog all day with a moderate NE breeze. The temp at my digital home thermometer has a range of 2.3 F degrees between low and high today. If that holds it will be the smallest daily range I have ever experienced anywhere since I started recording weather in my paper journal.
But my joke was removed in 2.5 seconds right?.lol.

It had know punchline , it was as dull as dish water.

Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

But my joke was removed in 2.5 seconds right?.lol.


I was quickly given my slap on the wrist for my "off-topic" post a couple days ago.
Quoting 116. PedleyCA:



Joke, what joke.....lol
Now you've just ruined the joke Pedley!.lol.
What did the girl say when Hagupit spilled the water on the edge of the table?.

You just Hagupit (Had to put) it right there!.
Quoting 121. washingtonian115:

Now you've just ruined the joke Pedley!.lol.


Didn't mean to do so.....
GFS 00z finally picking up on the storm for the Northeast for next week. Still no where near as far west as the ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM/NAM solutions. GFS has been doing absolutely terrible in this progressive pattern.
The first snow warnings are out for parts of Scotland for tomorrow and Sunday. Up to 10 inches expected in some places. Tonight is going to be very cold with temperatures below freezing across most of the country. Also, having a look at the GFS, it shows temps being below normal for the next week or so and continues to do so in the long range too. It even shows possible snow mid-December for me (216 hours out so taking it with a pinch of salt). I'm liking the start of winter so far. :)

People in the Philippines should be bracing for a direct landfall in the next several hours ..

A very dangerous storm !!



A big bush has grown in front (on the west side) of my PWS so the winds will not record near what they are. ISOUTHER13

REMINDER: Put the Weather Station up on the 30 foot water tower next week.
Quoting 110. ColoradoBob1:



Let's place your ASS in the wind field , and you get back to us.


wtf? wow

That's not even emotional kneejerk. It's just plain dumb.
Quoting 104. 1900hurricane:


Basically whenever windflow encounters higher terrain and is forced to flow parallel to it. It's a common process in cold air damming, but is also quite notable with storms near Greenland. Here's a paper about them.

Tip Jets and Barrier Winds: A QuikSCAT Climatology of High Wind Speed Events around Greenland


Ryan, bro, you've come far in seven years. I enjoy reading your posts. Keep 'em coming!
Quoting 129. Caimito:

A big bush has grown in front (on the west side) of my PWS so the winds will not record near what they are. ISOUTHER13

REMINDER: Put the Weather Station up on the 30 foot water tower next week.


33 feet is standard.
Quoting 129. Caimito:

A big bush has grown in front (on the west side) of my PWS so the winds will not record near what they are. ISOUTHER13

REMINDER: Put the Weather Station up on the 30 foot water tower next week.


If you have lightning in your area a good ground wire would be advisable ..

Lightning. Direct or indirect lightning strikes may damage your weather station, even with lightning arrestors installed. In lightning prone areas, install a lightning rod, and connect the mast to earth ground, and consider contacting a licensed electrician. Cabled weather stations can result in significant damage if the path of least resistance is inside the home through the console. If your weather station is damaged, you may be covered by your home owner's insurance.
Quoting 133. KoritheMan:



33 feet is standard.
Will end up about 40' from ground level. Way too windy to do that right now. We have heavily pruned most of the big trees out front. Taking in some people (evacuating) in our small house, so is getting crowded here. :)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PST FRI DEC 5 2014

A BREAK FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
BUT THOSE TWO DAYS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY MAY BE THE CALM BEFORE
THE STORM...AND A BIG STORM AT THAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A POWERFUL STORM INTO OUR AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS JUST IN AND IT SHOWS
THIS STORM TO BE EVEN STRONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM NEXT WEEK.

The Hanford NWS office has mentioned that this big storm will include the remnants of a super typhoon. I'm not sure which one they might be referring to.
8-10 inches in that bulls-eye in Northern California. Bet they are all excited, just don't know how well they cope with flooding.

I can only conclude that the models are showing some of the blowoff from Hagupit taking that jetstream express across the Pacific since there have been no other super typhoons for over a month.
Quoting 138. BayFog:

I can only conclude that the models are showing some of the blowoff from Hagupit taking that jetstream express across the Pacific since there have been no other super typhoons for over a month.


Look at the water vapor. There's a lot of cyclonic flow/troughing covering much of the western Pacific. Hagupit's outflow can be seen enhancing the southern end of the subtropical jet.

Anticyclonicity = downstream cyclonicity. Teleconnections.



214 mph jet max due west of the Golden Gate in a negatively tilted trough on Thursday.
Quoting 137. SouthCentralTx:

8-10 inches in that bulls-eye in Northern California. Bet they are all excited, just don't know how well they cope with flooding.




Lakes Shasta and Oroville have plenty of room for the runoff thanks to the drought. The coastal rivers in the redwood region will flood, but that's pretty much par for the course. Wine country may be dicey.
Quoting 134. whitewabit:



If you have lightning in your area a good ground wire would be advisable ..

Lightning. Direct or indirect lightning strikes may damage your weather station, even with lightning arrestors installed. In lightning prone areas, install a lightning rod, and connect the mast to earth ground, and consider contacting a licensed electrician. Cabled weather stations can result in significant damage if the path of least resistance is inside the home through the console. If your weather station is damaged, you may be covered by your home owner's insurance.

Thank WW. I never considered that. Not very lighting prone here. It is wireless, not cabled. Our Main Ground rod is close by, but I will install a separate one. Don't want possible surge through all ground circuits in the event of a hit. Insulating PWS from post and a rod extending should do the trick.
BLACKOUT. Electricity is down already.
Quoting 143. Caimito:

BLACKOUT. Electricity is down already.


Thats not good .. this early ..
110 knots (1 min)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
15:00 PM JST December 6 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (930 hPa) located at 12.1N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 12.3N 123.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Luzon)
48 HRS: 12.8N 120.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Luzon)
72 HRS: 13.0N 118.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Oh CNN....

"It's packing sustained winds of 195 kilometers an hour (313 mph) near the storm's center, with gusts of up to 230 kph (370 mph)."

Link
Quoting 137. SouthCentralTx:

8-10 inches in that bulls-eye in Northern California. Bet they are all excited, just don't know how well they cope with flooding.




We could get some brief heavy rain/flash flooding down here too.
Well it's a slow night on the blog, so I will take the opportunity to introduce myself. I have followed the blog closely for the past nine years. My main interests are in tropical hurricanes, but since I live in Southern California my fascination has shifted to rain. I am really looking forward to see how this upcoming storm develops. Special shout-out and thanks to KeeperoftheGate for the awesome maps and models posted through the years.
You all are my buddies and you don't even know it! (:
This is an error of the writer:-
"It's packing sustained winds of 195 kilometers an hour (313 mph) near the storm's center, with gusts of up to 230 kph (370 mph)."

Fortunately it should read 195 MPH, to equal 313 KPH.
With gusts of 230 MPH to equal 370 KPH.

Here's a link to the article.
Its the sort of thing which leads to even more panic and problems with the public who may not understand the difference with MPH and KPH.

Link
Here's a news link from the BBC.
I copied a few lines:-

"The BBC's Jonathan Head in the capital Manila said the Philippines was experiencing one of its largest ever peacetime evacuations.

He said people were being moved to higher ground and into more solid buildings such as churches, schools and sports stadiums."

Link
Will a "ruby-twin" arrive next week? Two super hurricanes in one week is terrible news.
Quoting 151. Caimito:

Video: Wind picking up in Maasin, Southern Leyte


Looks like the eye of the storm is going to roll along the top edge of the island and then over the smaller islands in the direction of Manila.
Here's the wind map link for Now at about dusk:-

Link

The link below is for the position of the storm in 24 hours time:-

Link

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/07/0600Z/win d/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-235.52,11.34,2905

Horrendous possibility's for the costal populations.
Quoting 151. Caimito:

Video: Wind picking up in Maasin, Southern Leyte


Thank you, Pascal! Lots of winds already so far south. Hope your property won't be damaged and everybody, including your evacuees, stay safe! --- And good morning to WU.

Hagupit is heading straight due west, along 12N (and should do so for a while according to 0z Euro):


Here is a map of Samar/Philippines (click it to enlarge it) which shows you the names of the towns along or near 12N (according to several youtubes, Can-Avid is situated in a low lying region which is prone for flooding anyway):


Storm chaser James Reynolds is on the western side in Calbayog. He has posted several tweets and some photos (showing the picturesque little harbor) from this location today.

Best wishes!

Quoting 148. Otterpup:

Well it's a slow night on the blog, so I will take the opportunity to introduce myself. I have followed the blog closely for the past nine years. My main interests are in tropical hurricanes, but since I live in Southern California my fascination has shifted to rain. I am really looking forward to see how this upcoming storm develops. Special shout-out and thanks to KeeperoftheGate for the awesome maps and models posted through the years.
You all are my buddies and you don't even know it! (:


Welcome out in the open of the blog!
Quoting 148. Otterpup:
 
My main interests are in tropical hurricanes
There are non-tropical hurricanes? *scratches head*
Quoting 148. Otterpup:


You all are my buddies and you don't even know it! (:
Well, at least we know YOU consider online interactions as meaningful. That loudmouth minority that claims such interactions (which can lead to bona fide relationships) are irrelevant annoy me. Many of my better friends have come from the Internet. I'm going to see one in Ohio next year before going to school, in fact. Kind of some last minute/somewhat impromptu enjoyment before school takes my life away.

EDIT: Oh yeah, welcome!
Quoting 104. 1900hurricane:


Basically whenever windflow encounters higher terrain and is forced to flow parallel to it. It's a common process in cold air damming, but is also quite notable with storms near Greenland. Here's a paper about them.

Tip Jets and Barrier Winds: A QuikSCAT Climatology of High Wind Speed Events around Greenland


Much appreciated! Thank you for the interesting infos.
15-feet storm surges may hit Samar, says Project NOAH
Kristine Angeli Sabillo, INQUIRER.net, 4:53 PM | Saturday, December 6th, 2014

Quoting 152. Touchy2:

Will a "ruby-twin" arrive next week? Two super hurricanes in one week is terrible news.



Indeed some suspect movements near the equator at 150W:


New from James Reynolds
Quoting 125. Envoirment:

The first snow warnings are out for parts of Scotland for tomorrow and Sunday. Up to 10 inches expected in some places. Tonight is going to be very cold with temperatures below freezing across most of the country. Also, having a look at the GFS, it shows temps being below normal for the next week or so and continues to do so in the long range too. It even shows possible snow mid-December for me (216 hours out so taking it with a pinch of salt). I'm liking the start of winter so far. :)






Wednesday looks fun: severe gales, frequent wintry convection with blizzards on the hills and mountains, cold clear conditions in between. Much better than this morning's rainy gloom.
Who will be correct with the path of Hagupit?

JTWC:


PAGASA:


All I can honestly see is destruction. Thankfully people have taken heed of the Govt warning and have evacuated.

Sending many prayers

Quoting 162. AussieStorm:

Who will be correct with the path of Hagupit?

JTWC:


PAGASA:


All I can honestly see is destruction. Thankfully people have taken heed of the Govt warning and have evacuated.

Sending many prayers
In between sounds best.
Something else to worry about.

From PhilVolcs

In its 11 AM bulletin today, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) forecasted Typhoon Ruby to make landfall in Samar area before
noon of December 6. The typhoon is estimated to bring heavy to intense amount of rainfall
within its 700 km diameter, thus posing grave threat of extreme rainfall-induced landslides and
lahars in volcanic edifices, particularly in Albay and Sorsogon Provinces.

In Albay Province, extreme rainfall may trigger landslides and excessive erosion of old
pyroclastic deposits in the upper to middle slopes of Mayon Volcano, generating lahars in all
river drainages. Potentially large-magnitude lahars can threaten downstream communities along
river channels with inundation, burial and washout.  The greatest lahar hazard can consequently
be faced by communities along the Masarawag (Guinobatan), Maninila (Guinobatan),
Buyuan-Padang (Legaspi City), Lidong (Sto. Domingo), Mabinit (Legaspi City), Basud (Sto.
Domingo), Miisi (Daraga), Anoling (Daraga) and Nabonton (Ligao City) Channels.  Furthermore,
lahar-related flooding, washout and siltation can subsequently occur along the Yawa River,
threatening adjacent and low-lying areas of Legaspi City.

In Sorsogon Province, extreme rainfall may cause excessive erosion of existing pyroclastic
deposits in the upper slopes of Bulusan Volcano, triggering lahars in rivers draining the
southeastern, southwestern and northwestern flanks. Potential moderate-volume lahars can
threaten downstream communities along the Malunoy (Patag), Mapaso, Cadac-an, Tinampo
and Cogon Rivers in Irosin and the Añog-Rangas River in Juban.

In view of the above, PHIVOLCS strongly recommends vigilance and readiness of communities
in pre-determined zones of lahar hazards in the above volcanoes. Preparedness on clearing
and rehabilitation operations is also recommended in the event of debris deposition on roads
and bridges that traverse lahar channels. PHIVOLCS reiterates that strict avoidance of the
Permanent Danger Zones in both Mayon and Bulusan Volcanoes must be observed due to the
potentially amplified dangers of rockfalls, avalanches, landslides and steam-driven explosions at
the summit area.
Quoting KoritheMan:

In between sounds best.


My guess is a similar track to Rammasun in July.
Good morning all....

Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:

Hagupit means "lashing with a whip" in Filipino.

It does not mean "smash"

An even more evocative description of Hagupit's impact.
Quoting 130. whitewabit:


This is a nasty, potentially disastrous track right here .... :o( ... numerous volcanoes, running through the heart of the archipelago, hitting Manila [basically] .... sure hope they cancel those ferry boats... seems there's one that sinks or overturns during a major hurricane out there almost every season. .... :o/
James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV - 21 Min. Vor 21 Minuten
Radar image of #typhoon #RubyPH #Hagupit nearing east coast of Samar, h/t @westpacwx



[Edit: not so sure anymore this is really a radar pic of Hagupit ... Chaos on Twitter with a lot of false reports]
Quoting 146. VAbeachhurricanes:

Oh CNN....

"It's packing sustained winds of 195 kilometers an hour (313 mph) near the storm's center, with gusts of up to 230 kph (370 mph)."

Link
Wow... can get a job at CNN without knowing the difference between multiply and divide... who knew?

Quoting 150. PlazaRed:

Here's a news link from the BBC.
I copied a few lines:-

"The BBC's Jonathan Head in the capital Manila said the Philippines was experiencing one of its largest ever peacetime evacuations.

He said people were being moved to higher ground and into more solid buildings such as churches, schools and sports stadiums."

Link

I'm praying we see a much smaller loss of life this time around. Getting people away from the coast and into stronger buildings is a big step. I'm still thinking about the massive turnaround in Bangladesh due to some basic attentions to these two basic principles...
Quoting 156. KoritheMan:

There are non-tropical hurricanes? *scratches head*
Well, at least we know YOU consider online interactions as meaningful. That loudmouth minority that claims such interactions (which can lead to bona fide relationships) are irrelevant annoy me. Many of my better friends have come from the Internet. I'm going to see one in Ohio next year before going to school, in fact. Kind of some last minute/somewhat impromptu enjoyment before school takes my life away.

EDIT: Oh yeah, welcome!

I love hearing that school is going to impinge on your life again. .... lol ... excellent! :o)

Speaking of meaningful online interactions, I had the opportunity to eat dinner with CaicosRetiredSailor at a local sushi restaurant on Thursday night. He is in town dealing with some personal business, but it was great to be able to get together. Plus the food was super.

I agree that online friendships [relationships] can have the weight of "real life" ones. To me it's not much different from people writing each other on paper in the past and maintaining their relationships in that way.
School won't take your life away. Just another step in a fulfilling life journey man. Enjoy.

Quoting 156. KoritheMan:

There are non-tropical hurricanes? *scratches head*
Well, at least we know YOU consider online interactions as meaningful. That loudmouth minority that claims such interactions (which can lead to bona fide relationships) are irrelevant annoy me. Many of my better friends have come from the Internet. I'm going to see one in Ohio next year before going to school, in fact. Kind of some last minute/somewhat impromptu enjoyment before school takes my life away.

EDIT: Oh yeah, welcome!

Quoting 160. AussieStorm:



New from James Reynolds
Hope he's able to keep posting this through the course of the storm passage....
Gotta run, all.... hopefully will be able to check in after 9 a.m. EST.... if not, enjoy your Saturday morning, afternoon, or evening.... lol ...
Quoting 153. PlazaRed:



Looks like the eye of the storm is going to roll along the top edge of the island and then over the smaller islands in the direction of Manila.
Here's the wind map link for Now at about dusk:-

Link

The link below is for the position of the storm in 24 hours time:-

Link

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/07/0600Z/win d/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-235.52,11.34,2905

Horrendous possibility's for the costal populations.
No. It is doing the Opposite. It has now changed to a more westerly south-westerly direction. There is no EYE but the centre of the system looks to be landing halfway up Samar Island, and that is some 50 km closer to Tacloban than earlier predictions. (and 50 km closer to me)
Quoting 154. barbamz:



Thank you, Pascal! Lots of winds already so far south. Hope your property won't be damaged and everybody, including your evacuees, stay safe! --- And good morning to WU.

Hagupit is heading straight due west, along 12N (and should do so for a while according to 0z Euro):


Here is a map of Samar/Philippines (click it to enlarge it) which shows you the names of the towns along or near 12N (according to several youtubes, Can-Avid is situated in a low lying region which is prone for flooding anyway):


Storm chaser James Reynolds is on the western side in Calbayog. He has posted several tweets and some photos (showing the picturesque little harbor) from this location today.

Best wishes!



Thank you BB. We will be fine here. I designed and built the place myself. We have a 8 foot concrete seawall inland of our beach, and the ground level inside is level with the top of the seawall. Our infinity pool will get a bit of seawater, but that is no big deal. Beach will be cleaned for sure as a bonus.
Typhoon Hagupit is now 125 mph wind (CAT 3)
PAGASA has issued public storm warning signals for 34 geographic areas, spanning from southeastern portions of Luzon (the main northern island) through the Visayas (central Philippines) and northeastern parts of Mindanao (the main southern island).

The island of Samar in the Visayas nearest the initial arrival of the landfall was raised to Public Storm Warning Signal No. 3, meaning winds of 100-185 kph (62 to 115 mph) are expected "in at least 18 hours." Also included in signal number 3 are the island of Biliran, and parts of Luzon including Catanduanes, Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Masbate and Ticao Island.

These winds are capable of considerable damage to structures of light-medium construction, widespread disruption to power and communications services, and moderate to heavy damage to trees and crops.

PAGASA also placed a large part of this region in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2, meaning 61 to 100 kph (38 to 62 mph) are possible "in at least 24 hours.", including Tacloban City on Leyte Island. Metro Cebu, the second-largest metropolitan area in the country after Metro Manila, is included in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2.

Quoting 170. BahaHurican:

I love hearing that school is going to impinge on your life again. .... lol ... excellent! :o)

Speaking of meaningful online interactions, I had the opportunity to eat dinner with CaicosRetiredSailor at a local sushi restaurant on Thursday night. He is in town dealing with some personal business, but it was great to be able to get together. Plus the food was super.

I agree that online friendships [relationships] can have the weight of "real life" ones. To me it's not much different from people writing each other on paper in the past and maintaining their relationships in that way.
I have Caicos on Facebook, so I'm aware of what he's going through. I've been thinking of him.
Quoting 174. Caimito:

No. It is doing the Opposite. It has now changed to a more westerly south-westerly direction. There is no EYE but the centre of the system looks to be landing halfway up Samar Island, and that is some 50 km closer to Tacloban than earlier predictions. (and 50 km closer to me)

This turn or deviation is probably for the worst, as its now going directly over the island.
Below is the winds link for now, a lot weaker but at this slow joging speed a massive amount of rainfall is going to fall in the mountain areas.

Link
I see the GFS has surrended to the Euro and as a result NO above normal temps for the EAST next week infact FL looks quite Cool most of next week as temps should be 10 to 15 degrees below average.

Quoting 146. VAbeachhurricanes:

Oh CNN....

"It's packing sustained winds of 195 kilometers an hour (313 mph) near the storm's center, with gusts of up to 230 kph (370 mph)."

Link
really..that the most beautiful thing i have seen so far today.
Just doing a bit of basic calculations.
If the storm's forward movement is 7 MPH, (11 KPH) then it will only move about 170 Miles, (275 KMs) in the next 24 hours.
This will probably mean that the areas affected by rainfall will have easily a full 24 hours and probably in reality a lot more than that. We might be looking at possible record rainfall events here!

As the ground will already be saturated in the areas affected all that rainfall will be runoff.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I see the GFS has surrended to the Euro and as a result NO above normal temps for the EAST next week infact FL looks quite Cool most of next week as temps should be 10 to 15 degrees below average.


Scott, the GFS has been showing below normal temperatures for next week for the East Coast most of this week.
Don't you remember me posting the images several days ago showing the GFS model's below normal forecast for the East Coast next week?
Here's an example from Wednesday's 12Z showing below average temperatures for next week.
Down here in Fort Myers our temperatures are forecast to be just slightly below normal next week.
It will be seen if we see temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal, and 10-15 below normal isn't all that bad (especially since it's been so warm).
Quoting 180. KoritheMan:


I have Caicos on Facebook, so I'm aware of what he's going through. I've been thinking of him.

I'm going to call him in a few, see how things are going, maybe get a coffee or something. I told him the other day it's times like this you find out who your real friends are.... doesn't matter where u met them ...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I see the GFS has surrended to the Euro and as a result NO above normal temps for the EAST next week infact FL looks quite Cool most of next week as temps should be 10 to 15 degrees below average.


10-15 degrees is simply wrong. Here in Tallahassee the average high temp is 67 degrees. There will be one cool day this week on Wednesday of 59. Hardly 10-15 degrees.

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 68. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 61. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 61.

Link

Even for you in Orlando the normal high is 74 degrees this week. The highs are only dipping to 68.

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 68. North wind around 5 mph.

Link

Not a big deal, the slightly below normal highs will be welcome for sure but not to the extreme you keep posting about. I'll get the crow ready for ya!
Quoting 159. barbamz:



Indeed some suspect movements near the equator at 150W:

I wonder if there have been two or three supertyphoons in existence at one time.?

Here is another bad one the Philippines had to deal with...



Formed October 20, 1995
Dissipated November 7, 1995
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 215 km/h (130 mph)
1-minute sustained: 285 km/h (180 mph)
Lowest pressure 910 mbar (hPa); 26.87 inHg
Fatalities 936 direct

Damage $315 million (1995 USD)
Areas affected Micronesia, Philippines, China, Vietnam

Typhoon Ruby makes first landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar—Pagasa
Ivan Angelo de Lara, INQUIRER.net, 9:34 PM | Saturday, December 6th, 2014
MANILA, Philippines—Typhoon Ruby (international name: Hagupit), packing winds of 175 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 210 kph, made its first landfall in the town of Dolores in Eastern Samar province on Saturday evening, the state weather bureau said.
Weather forecaster Jori Loiz confirmed in a radio interview that Ruby made its landfall at 9:15 p.m. ...


Where it's located: Dolores / Eastern Samar.



u see the two storm here in the usa
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

I see the GFS has surrended to the Euro and as a result NO above normal temps for the EAST next week infact FL looks quite Cool most of next week as temps should be 10 to 15 degrees below average.
Good morning Scott. Just looked at some of the latest info coming in from Penn State....He said powerful winter storms will be likely. QBO deep in the negative , Nino with the warmest water to the west and cooler east favors a stormy winter pattern. Add to that a negative NAO and AO , extensive snow cover in Siberia , potential is more than good. I posted my thoughts on this winter a few days ago. I do not know if you read it , it was the same for the most part.
Quoting 190. hydrus:

I wonder if there have been two or three supertyphoons in existence at one time.?


Yes, spontaneously I found two seasons: According to the JTWC-besttrack-data Ivan and Joan in 1997 were simultaneously supertyphoons from October 17 00 UTC to October 19 12 UTC
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/be st_tracks/wpindex.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_typhoon _season

or in 1965 Lucy and Mary from August 17 12 UTC to August 18 06 UTC
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1965_Pacific_typhoon _season

Quoting 187. BahaHurican:

I'm going to call him in a few, see how things are going, maybe get a coffee or something. I told him the other day it's times like this you find out who your real friends are.... doesn't matter where u met them ...
Send him my regards too, if you will.
197. Inyo
I'm not sure about other areas but I live in Vermont and the GFS has been nearly useless lately. I'm tempted to stop even looking at it. It's had a very warm bias lately. For the storm today it insisted on very warm with lots of rain, the Euro said all snow but I figured it was just some kind of resolution error (I was just looking at the weather spark graph) but the rain-snow line is sinking south now and the NWS is already backsliding on their warm forecast and I just saw the HRRR and it forecasts only snow. I like it because I prefer snow but it's disappointing to have such poor model performance (yes I know it is just a couple of degrees between rain and snow, and it's tough, but come on GFS). I also think maybe the NWS relies to heavily on the GFS (I love NOAA but in this case I think they need to give up on it). They were discussing the NAM 'cold bias' last night when the EURO also said cold... of course it turned out to be a GFS warm bias again instead.
Likewise GFS completely rejected the storm for next week but now it is bringing it in. But... no surprise... it wants a lot of rain now. I wonder if that forecast is wrong also ir if we are going to get rain on our snow. And of course... its bad forecast for Hagupit probably added to the storm's danger. Yikes! At least maybe this means the GFS's insistence on warm weather for the following week is just nonsense (not that those longer range GFS forecasts were any good anyway but they at least helped with trends).

So did they just give up on the GFS knowing there is an upgrade next month? I sure hope the upgrade actualy fixes it.
Quoting 196. KoritheMan:


Send him my regards too, if you will.

will do....
Models

Typhoon Hagupit/Ruby now crossing land





Rainfall intensity as of 12/06/14 10:40 PM
Samar, Hinabangan Municipal Grounds : 13.5 mm/hour
Eastern Samar, Giporlos : 2.8 mm/hour
Leyte, Dungcaan Bridge : 2.4 mm/hour
Biliran, Brgy. Calumpang : 9.4 mm/hour
Cebu, Logon National High School : 4.0 mm/hour
Cebu, Tabogon Central School : 2.5 mm/hour
Eastern Samar, Gen Macarthur : 3.8 mm/hour
Leyte, Kaglawaan Municipal Nursery : 5.4 mm/hour
Leyte, Matag-Ob Municipal Grounds : 7.5 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Alang-Alang : 11.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Sta. Fe : 6.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Pagasa Tacloban Station : 12.72 mm/hour
Leyte, Pit-Tabango (Mrv) Campus : 6.5 mm/hour
Negros Oriental, Negros Oriental State University, Mabinay Campus : 3.0 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Laoang Municipal Building : 45.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Lavezares Municipal Grounds : 6.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Pnp Camp : 9.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Rosario Municipal Grounds : 12.0 mm/hour
Samar, Buscada : 25.2 mm/hour
Quoting 180. KoritheMan:


I have Caicos on Facebook, so I'm aware of what he's going through. I've been thinking of him.



Many of us are aware of whats going with that situation and were all praying and being positive for Him and the family affected.

found this in my morning perusings...





Rainfall intensity as of 12/06/14 11:15 PM
Cebu, Logon National High School : 4.5 mm/hour
Eastern Samar, Gen Macarthur : 3.4 mm/hour
Leyte, Dungcaan Bridge : 3.2 mm/hour
Leyte, Kaglawaan Municipal Nursery : 4.4 mm/hour
Leyte, Matag-Ob Municipal Grounds : 8.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Alang-Alang : 10.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Sta. Fe : 7.5 mm/hour
Leyte, Pit-Tabango (Mrv) Campus : 9.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Lavezares Municipal Grounds : 5.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Pnp Camp : 10.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Rosario Municipal Grounds : 13.5 mm/hour
Samar, Gandara Bridge : 12.4 mm/hour
Samar, Hinabangan Municipal Grounds : 15.5 mm/hour
Biliran, Brgy. Calumpang : 8.2 mm/hour
Biliran, Kaulanguhan : 5.0 mm/hour
Landfall



Rainfall intensity as of 12/06/14 11:20 PM
Northern Samar, Rosario Municipal Grounds : 15.5 mm/hour
Samar, Brgy Dolores : 2.4 mm/hour
Samar, Hinabangan Municipal Grounds : 17.0 mm/hour
Surigao del Norte, Mainit Municipal Hall : 6.8 mm/hour
Biliran, Brgy. Calumpang : 6.4 mm/hour
Biliran, Kaulanguhan : 5.0 mm/hour
Cebu, Catmon Seaside Park Flores : 3.0 mm/hour
Cebu, Ctu Daanbantayan Campus : 2.2 mm/hour
Cebu, Logon National High School : 4.5 mm/hour
Cebu, Tabogon Central School : 3.5 mm/hour
Eastern Samar, Gen Macarthur : 3.2 mm/hour
Leyte, Kaglawaan Municipal Nursery : 4.4 mm/hour
Leyte, Matag-Ob Municipal Grounds : 8.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Alang-Alang : 9.0 mm/hour
Leyte, Municipal Grounds Sta. Fe : 7.5 mm/hour
Leyte, Pit-Tabango (Mrv) Campus : 10.0 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Lavezares Municipal Grounds : 5.5 mm/hour
Northern Samar, Pnp Camp : 13.5 mm/hour
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
FOR: TYPHOON “‪#‎RubyPH‬”(HAGUPIT)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWELVE
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 06 DECEMBER 2014
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow)
TYPHOON “RUBY” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SAMAR AND IS NOW HEADING TOWARDS MASBATE.
•Expected Second landfall: Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of Masbate and it will be associated with strong winds, storm surge (up to 4.5 meters) and heavy to torrential rainfall.
•Estimated rainfall amount is from 10 – >30 mm per hour (heavy – torrential) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.
•“RUBY” and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and over northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisherfolks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.
•Expected to Exit PAR: Tuesday evening.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “RUBY” was located based on all available data including Virac and Cebu Doppler radars in the vicinity of Dolores, Eastern Samar or at 140 km East Southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar (11.9°N, 125.8°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.
Forecast Positions:
•24 hour (tomorrow evening): 35 km Northeast of Romblon, Romblon.
•48 hour (Monday evening): 235 km West Northwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
•72 hour (Tuesday evening): 595 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Public Storm Warning Signal #3
(Winds of 101-185 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs)
LUZON: Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon,and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Island
VISAYAS: Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte and Biliran.
Impacts:
•Heavy damage to agricultural plantation, medium and large trees maybe uprooted
•Considerable damage to structure of light to medium construction, while, majority of nipa and cogon houses unroofed or destroyed
•Severe damage to Billboards & signages
•Evacuation to a safer shelters is highly recommended
•Electrical power distribution and communication services maybe severely disrupted
Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living along the coast are warned on the occurrence of big waves associated with Storm Surge which may reach up to 4.5 meters.
Public Storm Warning Signal #2
(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs)
LUZON: Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro.
VISAYAS: Northern Antique, Aklan, Semirara Grp. of Islands, Capiz, Northern Iloilo, Northern Cebu including Cebu City, Bantayan and Camotes Island, and Southern Leyte
Impacts:
•Rice and corn maybe adversely affected
•Few large trees uprooted
•Large number of nipa and cogon houses partially or totally unroofed and old galvanized iron roofs may roll off.
•Billboards/Signage may roll off
•Travel by all types of sea vessels and aircrafts are risky
Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living along the coast are warned on the occurrence of big waves associated with Storm Surge which may reach up to 3 meters.
Public Storm Warning Signal #1
(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected in at least 36 hrs)
LUZON: Pampanga, Bulacan, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo and Metro Manila
VISAYAS: Rest of Antique,Rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Rest of Cebu and Bohol.
MINDANAO: Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island and Dinagat Province.
Impacts:
•Twigs and branches of trees maybe broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses maybe partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small sea crafts and fishing boats is risky
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.
• The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.KIDLAT.PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH


Pictures from earlier today...Most recent photos were updated 1:13 p.m. (Philippine time) Dec. 6th It is over 8 hours later now. Link YAHOO News

Link PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Well, looking at all those Hagupit-landfall radars, earlier posted by me (found in Reynolds twitter feed) and by Aussi (there were even more different on Twitter): Could they all really show one and the same typhoon (Hagupit)???? I think the second one below (from Aussi) is the valid one, if the storm really made landfall first in Dolores. Or do I miss some radar mysteries? Or was the storm first wobbling straigth to the north and is now moving straightly way to the south?







Edit, ah: James Reynolds just has tweeted another one:

Meanwhile in southeastern Europe (two days ago):


Serbia's energy minister escaped serious injury on Thursday when he was hit on the head by a heavy chunk of ice which split his protective helmet. Aleksander Antic was touring an eastern area hit by a recent cold snap when the block of ice fell from an overhead power line. Power was restored to some 5,000 people in the municipality of Majdanpek later in the day.


rain in boston right now new york city cloudy!!

Dec 6, 2014 | ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit (RubyPH): EyeWall & Outer Rainbands (4x speed)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Its the witching wind and Water now.

A Typhoon of Major Impact is bearing down on a Population maimed and battered only a year ago.

Our thoughts are with those within the Storms Terrible reach.

You are not alone.


The dawn will come, and help will as well.

God is near you.


Quoting 207. barbamz:

Well, looking at all those Hagupit-landfall radars, earlier posted by me (found in Reynolds twitter feed) and by Aussi (there were even more different on Twitter): Could they all really show one and the same typhoon (Hagupit)???? I think the second one below (from Aussi) is the valid one, if the storm really made landfall first in Dolores. Or do I miss some radar mysteries? Or was the storm first wobbling straigth to the north and is now moving straightly way to the south?


It is quite normal for tropical cyclones to wobble, but could you give the time when each radarimage was recorded, that could be helpful for further comparisons e.g. with the track analyzed by the JMA.
Took this Video a few hours ago. Too dangerous to go open the door now, and we are over 200 km south of the centre. This typhoon in not as strong as Haiyan, but it seems to be moving across much more slowly. Chatting with some friends up in Tabango (much closer to centre), and they say it is mayhem outside