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Super typhoon Durian aims for the Philippines; rare tornado hits Wales

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on November 29, 2006

Super Typhoon Durian put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification today, and is now a large and very dangerous Category 4 storm headed towards the Philippines. Durian (named for a tropical fruit) is on track to make landfall on the main island of Luzon later today and pass over the island Thursday. Winds at Catanduanes and Daet, the first major cities that will be hit, had increased to 20 mph at 1am local time Thursday, and will steadily pick up. Durian is in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow. In the past 24 hours, the storm has intensified from a Category 1 typhoon with winds of 85 mph to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 916 mb. Durian has a good chance of intensifying into a Category 5 super typhoon later today, before interaction with land and passage over Luzon start to weaken the storm. Unfortunately, Durian is expected to slow down as it passes over the Philippines, and may pass near the heavily populated capital city of Manila, a city of 12 million. The slow motion will make Durian a prodigious rainmaker, and NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch is predicting rain amounts of up to eight inches in 24 hours (Figure 2). Heavy rains that trigger flash floods and mudslides are the primary hazards of typhoons in the Philippines, and we can expect damage and loss of life similar to what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. The Philippines have raised its highest alert level, and are moving coastal residents out where a storm surge of up to 15 feet is expected. Schools have been cancelled today and all sea travel suspended.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.

The Philippines have been hit particularly hard this typhoon season, and Durian will be the 4th major typhoon to wallop the island in the past three months. Typhoon Chebi hit Luzon as a Category 3 typhoon on November 11, but hit the less populated northern portion of the island and moved quickly enough that heavy rains and flooding caused relatively little damage. Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 27, destroyed 2600 homes, and damaged another 18,000.

Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

Tornado hits Wales
A rare tornado hit Wales in the British Islands yesterday, according to news reports from the BBC. The small tornado, which hit at 1:30 am local time, damaged 20 homes. Tornadoes are rare in the British Islands due to the lack of cold, dry continental air needed to generate severe thunderstorms. Here's the weather discussion put out by the UK Met office before the tornado:

CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION issued at 1045 GMT on Tuesday 28th November 2006 Valid from/until: 1045 - 2359 GMT on Tuesday 28th November for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Coastal areas of Wales SW England Southern coastal counties of England Channel Islands

SYNOPSIS: Large upper trough/cold pool is approaching from the west. Cold advection aloft/synoptic lift will cause instability to increase with CAPE values of 2-300 J/Kg expected, with LIs down to -2C or so. Flow is rather unidirectional, and low-level/deep layer shear are not large. However, just ahead of the trough, some increase is 850 hPa winds are forecast by some mesoscale models, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon.

THREATS: Heavy showers/a few thunderstorms are expected to affect the areas this afternoon and evening, with the risk shifting east over time. The main effects of these will be hail 15-20mm diameter, gusty winds, briefly torrential rain and a few cloud-ground lightning strikes. However, there is a small risk of tornadic development, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon, as 850 hPa wind max moves through. Elsewhere, the risk is lower, but still there. Overall though, the risk is deemed too low for a WATCH to be issued.

Jeff Masters
over the past week Britain had been hit with servre Storms and flooding and very high windsi got some pictures of a tornado in a west Wales village which struck last niteTornado warnings are in affect in South Wales, West Wales and south west England today

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The CIMSS MIMIC confirms the obs...Link
Maybe you should take a look around the Net.
Anyone have any idea of the water depth at this location?
Patrap...look at the images in my previous post and compare them. When there's the heaviest convection in the SW at <-85C and right above on the eastern side there is cloud tops of only near -70C, thats a broken eyewall. The beginning of the band is very easy to see.
This thing continues to find the sweet spots sandcrab..amazing navigator too.
Yes, I do concur, very well developed cyclone indeed.
I see a Cyclone with punch.Nothing deters the focus of the impact more than following eyewall Notches.The Storm continues to reflect a serious Look.
Myles I have to disagree with you the IR is not showing the true structure look at the VIS it is clear there.
Good way to be an ass and help me!
Sandcrab, you're trying to tell me that a colored cooridnated system is not as good as trying to determine cloud heights with our eyes?
The visible tells the tale.The Ir can show fractures and other anomalie too.But the visible shows clarity.Clarity of structure.And dry air is not inhibiting as of yet.Plus ..these large well structured storms can ingest some dry air and shake it off in one revolution.And the local dewpoints and waters arent allowing any dry air in at this time.
BTW, Its not that I dont think this a strong system, I just think it was stronger when it has a complete ring of <-85C clouds surrounding a well defined eye.
I don't see a broken eye wall here.

On the WU map you can put your curser on the forcasted, current (spinning) & past & intensities pop up. Currently it's at 155mph, gusts to 190mph. It's also listed on the tropical section as a Super Typhoon.

business calls!
Tale of the tape..by the Numbers...Link
Myles I am telling you that heat transfer does not show cloud structure and if you totally rely on that then you are not seeing what the storm is actually doing it takes analysis from all views to analize the true structure one view only gives one view. You have to dissect all parts to see what is going on the VIS when possible shows outflow upper cloud structure and inner and outer band feeds.
Look at all that white
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 3:09 AM GMT on November 30, 2006.

You left out the hole part caster.

I like to say ass, it just works for me.
Skye, its not looking good for them at this point it is in an intensification mode just before landfall. I was hopeing it would be the opposite.
Short and sweat Butch.
I'm getting hyper, best be on my way.
The fetch side has a lot of water to work with still...the Structure looks amazingly Healthy!
As if Durian/Reming isn't bad enough, does anyone have Info about topo effects out there like Gap winds and tornadoes?
This typhoon will be devastating for the Philippines may godbless those people.
No saving grace for this one.Impacts now occuring ..Thankfully its daylight now.The folks to the west will have to deal with the Night Impact..sadly.Manila Included it seems.
23, I agree lets just hope for the best to our friends there.
Some elongation Noted in that last IR...Sw to Ne..but not enough.
The south end of that island is getting a full blow out of the storm if you look at the vis loop and stop it at the last frame it is pounding the south tip.
41 foot seas the shore is getting battered
When you watch the time lapse there is a huge wave of very moist air which may help in the quick intensifying of Durian ....
Shoreline effect would be 16-18' surge plus 1/2 the wave heighth = 36-38' shorline effects.
Ok all busy day tommorrow all have a good nite will check on the storm through out the nite lets all hope for the best and thanks for all the information shareing goodnite.
This is of about a 1/2 hr ago

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
300000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 124.5E
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 124.5E

135kts=155.45mph It's a super typhoon.
Nitey sandcrab..get some rest.Tommorrow might get lil bumpy..in the PM like ya said.Will see ya here if it gets wiggy,wiggy.Later Friend.
Skye thanks for the Numbers,Bad news again for them.
Numbers are order.
Im out for the Milk and Chips Ahoy thing.Daily Show in 17 minutes.Yall have good evening.
Enjoy chips ahoy LOL!
Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "REMING" {DURIAN}
Issued at 10:30 a.m., Thursday, 30 November 2006 Typhoon "REMING" has made landfall over the southern part of Catanduanes and is now heading towards Camarines provinces.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) in the vicinity of Virac, Catanduanes or
60 kms East Northeast of Legazpi, City

Coordinates: 13.4N, 124.3E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 190 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 225 kph
Movement: west at 15 kph

Forecast Positions / Outlook: Thursday afternoon:
expected to make a second landfall over the Eastern coast of Camarines Sur
Thursday evening:
will cross Camarines Provinces
Friday morning:
in the vicinity of Tayabas, Quezon or
70 kms East Southeast of Metro Manila
Saturday morning:
160 kms West of Iba, Zambales
Sunday morning:
490 kms West of Iba, Zambales

source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html
Yes I know, I watch it every other night. Love it!
Watch this .... unbelievable

Heres a Look at Amarillo Texas radar..17 degrees and snowing like Norway!...Link
sandcrab, this has been one of the few times the UCF real time has been down or I coulda had you interactive maps with damage estimates, surge, power outages, road names & oil rig impact (well if it was Aulstralia or the gulf on that last one).

Earlier it was 16-18' for highest surge. The 40+' waves have been tore up by the islands, their 15-20' at the worst now.
Nice Mel, and thanks for the stat's Stat!
cool link there
Damn Sky, I just don't know what to say, maybe, where do you find all this information and remember where you found it?
I swear your like a blog blessing!
lol..Wishboy..I have more favorites bookmarked then I'd care to count. Alot of good links & learning has been picked up from here & I tend to go off when I'm board or looking for something & find more. Of course I then drag all that back here or my blog for entertainment purposes. Pretty dead the other night, started featuring somethings from the "what not folder", in my blog. I could do that for a few months & not hand out the same link twice. Google & fast acsess helps too.
Reuters News on Durian

From the article

Durian, a category 4 typhoon -- which is a notch below a super typhoon -- brought winds of up to 190 kph (120 mph) and gusts of up to 225 kph (140mph) on a northward path that could sweep close to Manila on Friday morning.
LOL I bet you have so many Skyepony! I have 197 favorites and still remember where most of them are located on my list!
I imagine Melagoo is getting a good list too..another good one at finding links.
I have a few but Google is the champ
Off to bed - pray for the Philipines
I thought Id join in the conversation.
I have 30 favorites related to weather... A fraction of what Sky probably has.
aspiringstat interesting~ Pagasa has a weaker storm forcasted for a more Northerly track, then the Joint Typhoon Warning & the Navy.

Either way, if this passes south of you it puts you on the more extreme, dirty side.
I just started using my bookmark, like a week ago. Did I give you an idea of how big my inventory is? I know pathetic, but it will build over time.
aspiringstat~ do ya'll really have no radars left working? We used to watch landfalls on radar. Can't find one left working...Got a link?

Lol, Steve..just hang around.
Consider a some organization now, in the begining, with the bookmarks~ subfolders in like groupings.
PAGASA uses the 10 min average as well better than the JMA which for some unknown reason went to 90 knots while PAGASA says 105 knots.
Sorry but I wont hang around :(
Gonna go sleep, I'm tired.
I was thinking of starting a blog where people could post important or interesting information about meteorology and climatology when they found it. Once large amounts of information was gathered on a certain subject, I would simplify and organize it into something simple and educational. Then whenever you needed information on something fast and in a way that anyone could understand it, they could just come through and take the information. I'm not sure that's such a good idea though.
HGW~ comparing the 2 with the minute differences & all I just went off gusts, since that has no time issue. JTW has 190mph compared to Pagasa with 140mph.
Do any of you think that would work well.
Wishboy~ as a blog it might not be a bad idea. It's been done though & a few times over but mostly compiled at another sites. StormJunkie making StormJunkie.com is a good example~ a good portion of our colaberative links are there if your looking for links. Everytime someone has done this, seems they get so caught up in the managing of it they end up a slave to it & too busy to hang here except to spam their site.
I was thinking more of it being a blog thing more than a website thing. I have thought of the fact that if it caught on, i'd be really busy. I think it might be helpful to people who just came on here and they don't understand the weather that much. This would be a great learning experince for me as well. Usually it takes much deliberation to get too a point when the concept becomes complex. Though by that time there would be enough base understanding of the topic to understand and edit it.
Besides, there are some people who would like to see less of me anyway. LOL!
I thought I was tired but Im not...

Durian just about to make landfall:
How many of these Incredible 155mph storms have we had this year in the Pacific!!!!!!!!!
As of 11:00 AM local (03:00 GMT) Thu 30 November
Source: JTWC Warning #017 (US Navy/Air Force)

After a dramatic "Eyewall Replacement 3 to 6 hours ago, Super Typhoon DURIAN (REMING) regained its strength to 250 kph, back to Category 5...Eye just passed south of Virac and is now over Lagonoy Gulf...Landfall in just a few hours over Tiwi-Ocampo-Tigaon around 1 PM this afternoon and to be over Pili-Naga City around 2 to 3 pm.

*THIS IS AN EXTEMELY CATASTROPHIC TYPHOON...PAGASA Virac has recorded wind gusts of 265 km/hr...All interests in the Northern Samar, Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous typhoon.

*Please advise that if no updates occured, all communication may be damaged..this is might be my last UPDATE!!!

+ Forecast Outlook: DURIAN's core (eye & eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Camarines Sur in the afternoon and early evening and then cross Ragay Hills across Ragay and Del Gallego around 5-6 PM in Camarines Sur. An alternate scenario shows a possible Westerly track across Iriga City this afternoon...Please be aware of the situation.

Like Typhoon 2000 said, if i fail to give you updates for tomorrow til saturday, one things for sure, my place is severely damaged by durian.
The weather bureau is saying that it will not hit Metro Manila but still durian is a deadly typhoon. What is the latest there on your satellite images?
aspiringstat, the community here appreciates your insights. keep yourself safe. our prayers for your wellness.
FLCrackerGirl=FRAN & Family
(lots of lurkers here at WU)
a third cyclone of the season for the south pacific is beginning to form near Solomon Island.

94P -- 20 knots 1004 mb

Imagery reveals a consolidating convection wrapping into a low level circulation center with low to moderate vertical wind sheer

the potential of a significate tropical cyclone within 24 hours has been upgraded to good
aspringstat - If you are still here well here is the Water Vapor image of Durian:

Dr. Masters..You are excellent on getting the information out on tropical weather. It makes me proud to be a member of Weatherundergroud over any other service I have tried. God bless all those in the Philipines also. They will all surely need a prayer to endure this latest storm.

Greg Carstens
Spanaway, WA.
NWS Seattle Weather spotter
Moderator at WestCoastWeather on Yahoogroups.com
Cyclone Zita in the forecast

Tropical Depression 05F (Nadi RSMC assigned number)
30 knots 999 hPa
Durians outflow is looking good, but the dry air and the land passage should start to weaken it
Got an SMS from Geoff Mackley who is in Naga city intercepting Durian. He's managed to hire a cement truck and will be using that as his means of transport during the chaos!
Thoughts and Prayers with those in the Philippines.
News from the Philippines and Manila.
Winds are starting to blow here in manila but its not that significant. I saw Geoff in TV Patrol World, a news program of ABS-CBN in Naga City, Albay. I hope that this typhoon will not cause too much damage as compared to the Southern Tagalog region wherein the damage of the previous typhoon xangsane brought were doubled by super typhoon durian.
if u want more news from this typhoon from the Philippines, just visit these links:


aspiringstat....Thanks for the links.
PAGASA Weather Satellite as of 4 pm thursday (Manila Time)

this is the image from PAGASA

Typhoon Forecasr
72F in Houston...15F in Amarillo...thats a spread for sure.
The last two Images aspiring has the server in the MUD...remove if ya can buddy
Images finally came up; not very clear, & slow to load. Has there been any fresh media coverage from the are? How are things faring?

(G'morning Patrap, AStat, Raindrool)
Trying to see the situ .But reports scattered at Best.Will be tommorrow AM I believe before we get a Good clear pic of the Whole Impact.
Morning aquak9 flyer..LOL
Good morning everyone hope all is well.
Mornin Pat and pup!
Morning Crab.
Beginnings of the trouble for later sandcrab...Link
Yeppers Pat gonna be a busy afternoon
How ya doing this am Rand.
Gm rand..the Typhoon doing the deed now looks like.
Morning all, things not looking good re. Durian, for the population there. Rain will most likely be the major problem? they are well rehearsed for wind I think.
Good morning Pottery
"Super typhoon" Reming (international codename Durian) appeared to have slightly changed its path as it continued to traverse Camarines Sur province in the Bicol region Thursday, weather bureau PAGASA reported.

As of 4 p.m., the PAGASA Web site said that Reming was spotted 40 kilometers southeast of Pili, Camarines Sur area with maximum sustained winds of 190 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 225 kph. It was moving west at 15 kph.

PAGASA forecast the typhoon to be in the vicinity of Marinduque by early Friday morning and 120 km south southwest of Metro Manila in the afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, it is forecast to be 440 km west southwest of Metro Manila and 740 km west southwest of the capital region a day later.

A forecast earlier placed the typhoon in the vicinity of Metro Manila by Friday morning.

Doing good Crab...yes, it does look like you will be busy later.

Morning Pottery.
BRB (phone)
Question...... is it normal for Pacific storms to be generally as strong as this year, at such low lats. ?
Last nights jog SW seems to have changed the track significantly south.
611. RL3AO
Was this a Cat 5 at landfall?
Pacific always cranks out Typhoons of this Magnitude.Its a Bigger Basin by 2x than the Atlantic..with much Bigger Breeding Grounds.Seems to be a Bad season to Atlantic observers sometimes.But its the norm there.Thats why the Pacific broken up into 3 areas.West Pac,Central..and East pac.
OK< thanks Pat...
Yer welcome Pottery.Hows the weather in your area?
It did not hit as a Cat 5.

Packing winds of 190 kilometers (118 miles) an hour, Reming tore through the eastern island of Catanduanes, about 410 kilometers (254 miles) east of Manila, just before dawn destroying property and uprooting trees.
For those in the Philippines who are still on, our prayers are for you and your fellow countrymen today..take care and stay in touch if possible.
Rand ..Im WU mailing you now...
Amazing pictures on www.rambocam.com Received another message from Geoff and he's safe after a seriously insane afternoon!
Packing winds of 190 kilometers (118 miles) an hour

Different scale; here is the scale they use:

Dvorak Current/Forecast Intensity Chart as used by RSMC Tokyo
CI/FI MWS - Ten minute ave (knots)

2.0 30 KTS
2.5 35 KTS
3.0 45 KTS
3.5 55 KTS
4.0 65 KTS
4.5 70 KTS
5.0 77 KTS
5.5 85 KTS
6.0 93 KTS
6.5 100 KTS
7.0 107 KTS
7.5 115 KTS
8.0 122 KTS

Used by the NHC and JTWC:
Number (Knots) (MPH)
1.0 25 KTS 29 MPH
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2.0 30 KTS 35 MPH
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH
3.0 45 KTS 52 MPH
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH
4.0 65 KTS 75 MPH
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH
5.0 90 KTS 104 MPH
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH
6.0 115 KTS 132 MPH
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH
7.0 140 KTS 161 MPH
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH
8.0 170 KTS 196 MPH

Somewhere between T6.5 and T7.0 (127-140 kts, probably 135 kts because that is what the JTWC had in 1 minute sustained winds).
Morning all~ Looks like Remings' trip over Camarine weakened it Here's the quick animation on MIMIC. Lights are on in Manila. Things look wet at the yacht club. Not sure if the camera has shifted a little left or if the pizza sign is just being blown that hard. It's also not loading everytime. I think we're gonna lose this cam.
Oh & no idea what the 2 yellow moon looking things are in the yacht cam, they weren't there lastnight.
If the speed and track holds Skye...the storm looks to be taking the best route under Manila...to clear without doing the nasty on them..Good news Skye.
The navy has 115kts & 927mb.

Yes it is Patrap, enjoyed watching it fall apart on MIMIC this morning too.
Yup..its filling in...thats a GOOD trend for sure Skye.

credit NOAA
NOAA thoughts of the season on the last day.
Yeah the speed is a good thing too, noticed on the WU flash tracker tool that forward speed was forecasted a good bit quicker then it was yesterday.
Its OVER!...LA!..La!.LA!5
Been saving dat one for the right moment Skye..guess this IS it!..LOL
OH DEAR LORD! look at those horns!

(running into bedroom wall AGAIN, knocking self unconcious AGAIN)
Look at those Bra Bearings!..LOL XXX cups!
Good grief Pat...it's too early for stuff like that!
Maybe there was a camera shift up as well at the yacht club, I'm not sure if the pizza sign is any lower but there was sidewalk infront of those boats...10:20pm over there. It's gonna be a long night.

No coastal showers here this morning for a change. Gonna go haul hay while the sun shines.
LOL, yeah those horns, early, uh later.
Naw rand..this is Nawlins..never too early for anything.When you coming fo visit?
I'll get back there sometime Pat...Have no idea right now....
We could go sneak up On DocNDswamp and maybe get a Nutria Gumbo or a Beer..LOL
I know rand..once you get situated and comfy with things..come on down..or over...
Now im feeling a LIl Queezy.Tunnel flu coming on.LOL..See yall later.
Build it and they will come.