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Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015

By: Jeff Masters 11:58 AM GMT on May 17, 2015

Super Typhoon Dolphin intensified into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a central pressure of 925 mb at 2 pm EDT Saturday May 16, becoming Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of the year. Dolphin hung on to Category 5 strength for twelve hours before increasing wind shear helped knock the storm down to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds by Sunday morning. The eye of Dolphin passed through the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota Friday morning when the storm was at Category 2 strength with sustained winds of 110 mph. Guam experienced the weaker southern eyewall, and Rota saw the stronger northern eyewall. Andersen Air Force Base on Guam experienced sustained winds as high as 84 mph at 7:55 pm local time Friday, with a peak gust of 106 mph. Rainfall amounts tallied 9.30" in a 12-hour period. Dolphin knocked out power and damaged some homes, but the islands escaped serious destruction; Guam and Rota were very lucky that Dolphin waited a day to put on its intensification into a Category 5 storm. Satellite loops show a very impressive, well-organized system with a large ring of intense eyewall thunderstorms with very cold clouds tops, and prominent 28-mile diameter eye. A strong trough of low pressure has recurved the storm to the north, and Dolphin may pass close enough to Iwo Jima on Tuesday to bring that island typhoon conditions.


Figure 1. Still frame from 05 UTC May 16 2015, taken from a remarkable super high-resolution (every 2.5 minutes at 0.5 km) visible satellite loop of Super Typhoon Dolphin on Saturday morning, May 16, put together by The University of Wisconsin CIMSS group, using imagery from the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite. At the time, Dolphin was an intensifying Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds. More info and hi-res infrared loops can be found at the CIMSS satellite blog.

An unusual number of Category 5 storms so far in 2015
May 16 is exceptionally early to be getting our third Category 5 storm of the year in the Northwest Pacific. The global record for Category 5 storms is held by the El Niño year of 1997, which had twelve Category 5 storms--ten of them in the Northwest Pacific. The third Cat 5 of 1997 in the Northwest Pacific occurred on July 22, so we are more than two months ahead of that year's record pace. Dolphin is also the earliest-appearing 7th named storm of the Northwest Pacific's typhoon season; the previous record was on May 19, 1971. Super Typhoon Dolphin is already Earth's fifth Category Five storm this year, which is an unusually large number of these high-end tropical cyclones for so early in the year. Earth averaged just 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, so we've already exceeded our average for an entire year; 2015 already has the 6th most Category 5 storms for any year in the past 26 years (reliable satellite records of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones extend back to 1990, so we only have about a 26-year period of decent records for global Category 5 tropical cyclones.) The majority of these storms occur during the July - November peak of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season, with 59% of all Cat 5s occurring in the Northwest Pacific, so it is likely we will see several more Cat 5s this year. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

The other four Category 5 storms of 2015: Note that Wikipedia lists the Southwest Indian Ocean's Tropical Cyclone Bansi as being a Category 5, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) did not, giving it a top top wind speed of 150 mph, below the 156 mph threshold for Category 5. The JTWC is used here to rate Category 5 storms.


Cat Five #1, Southwest Indian. Tropical Cyclone Eunice as seen by the MODIS instrument at 05:30 UTC January 30, 2015, when the storm was at peak intensity (160 mph winds, 900 mb pressure.) Eunice was the 3rd strongest cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Indian Ocean by pressure, and the strongest by winds. Fortunately, Eunice affected only ocean areas in the South Indian Ocean.


Cat Five #2, Southeast Pacific. Tropical Cyclone Pam near peak intensity (165 mph winds, 896 mb pressure), as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:42 am EDT March 13, 2015, just southeast of Efate Island, where the capital of Vanuatu, Port Vila, lies. Pam killed 16 people and did $250 million in damage to the island nation of Vanuatu, making it the 2nd most expensive disaster in their history (the most expensive, according to EM-DAT: Cyclone Eric of 1985, which did $173 million in damage in 1985 dollars, or $377 million 2015 dollars.) Pam was the third most intense storm in the entire Southern Hemisphere by central pressure, only after Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Gafilo of 2004. Pam is tied with Cyclone Orson and Cyclone Monica for having the strongest sustained 10-minute average winds of any cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.


Cat Five #3, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Mayask was at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 160 mph (as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and a central pressure of 905 mb (as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency.) Maysak was the strongest typhoon ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April, and one of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific so early in the year. Maysak killed 9 and did $8.5 million in damage to several small islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, which it struck at Category 5 strength on March 31. The nine people killed by the storm made it Micronesia's second deadliest storm in recorded history, according to EM-DAT. Their deadliest disaster was Category 4 Typhoon Chataan, which dumped 19.90" (506 mm) of rain in 24 hours on Chuuk, causing landslides that killed 47 people. Maysak is the 2nd most expensive disaster in Micronesia's history; the most expensive was Category 1 Typhoon Nina, which did $6 million (1987 dollars) in damage on November 21, 1987.


Cat Five #4, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Noul as seen by the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite at 00:50 UTC May 10, 2015. At the time, Noul was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a 915 mb central pressure. Noul hit northeast Luzon in the Philippines on May 10, killing two and causing less than $1 million in damage. Noul was the third strongest typhoon on record for so early in the year. The only stronger ones were Super Typhoon Amy of 1971, which deepened to 890 mb on May 2, and Super Typhoon Iris of 1951, which hit 909 mb on May 3. Image credit: The University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, which put together a remarkable hi-res satellite animation of the storm from the Himawari-8 satellite (which is still in check-out mode.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Super Typhoon Dolphin now down to a cat 4 Typhoon soon
watch out for severe weather later today!!
Thanks Doc, this is what I'm talkin about!!!
The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. Whether this is the beginning of a complete magnetic pole shift or not will likely be disputed until the event actually occurs, however, the above graph clearly shows the annual movement of the north magnetic pole to be increasing exponentially. In addition, the last year data has been made available on this pole movement is from the year 2005. This suggests that there may be a reason why the governments of the world are not releasing any data past 2005. Is it possible the magnetic pole movement after 2005 would cause concern the governments would rather avoid? This gives credence to the global warming theorists, the only information being released by Governments is on Climate Change, and not one word about the shifting of polarities.

Something else worth mentioning and which may be significant is that the North Magnetic Pole has moved (about 12 degrees latitude and 18 degrees longitude) which is farther than the South Magnetic Pole (about 8 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude) during the same period of time. Could the inequality of movement between the poles be creating a potential for a spontaneous magnetic adjustment at some point in the future? Is it also possible that magnetic position data after 2005 could present an even more dramatic difference?

:)
Thanks Doc! However, I have noticed one flaw with your article. Dolphin is actually the sixth category 5; Bansi of January was the first category 5. It appears that it peaked between two advisories, but it is listed as a category 5. Thanks again for the wonderful post!
Quoting 4. trunkmonkey:

The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. Whether this is the beginning of a complete magnetic pole shift or not will likely be disputed until the event actually occurs, however, the above graph clearly shows the annual movement of the north magnetic pole to be increasing exponentially. In addition, the last year data has been made available on this pole movement is from the year 2005. This suggests that there may be a reason why the governments of the world are not releasing any data past 2005. Is it possible the magnetic pole movement after 2005 would cause concern the governments would rather avoid? This gives credence to the global warming theorists, the only information being released by Governments is on Climate Change, and not one word about the shifting of polarities.

Something else worth mentioning and which may be significant is that the North Magnetic Pole has moved (about 12 degrees latitude and 18 degrees longitude) which is farther than the South Magnetic Pole (about 8 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude) during the same period of time. Could the inequality of movement between the poles be creating a potential for a spontaneous magnetic adjustment at some point in the future? Is it also possible that magnetic position data after 2005 could present an even more dramatic difference?

:)


Texas: A new study that has been published in the Geophysical Research Letters, has found that the location of the earth’s geographic poles is changing due to global warming.
The study, carried out by scientists at the University of Texas, Austin, says that the North Pole has shifted several centimetres east due to the loss of ice sheets.

Scientists said the pole drifted southeast toward northern Labrador, Canada, at a rate of about 6 centimetres per year between 1982 and 2005. But the direction and speed of the pole’s journey changed since 2005. It started moving rapidly east towards Greenland at a rate of more than 21 centimeters per year.

Link
Quoting 6. yoboi:



Texas: A new study that has been published in the Geophysical Research Letters, has found that the location of the earth’s geographic poles is changing due to global warming.
The study, carried out by scientists at the University of Texas, Austin, says that the North Pole has shifted several centimetres east due to the loss of ice sheets.

Scientists said the pole drifted southeast toward northern Labrador, Canada, at a rate of about 6 centimetres per year between 1982 and 2005. But the direction and speed of the pole’s journey changed since 2005. It started moving rapidly east towards Greenland at a rate of more than 21 centimeters per year.

Link


The geographic poles are different from magnetic poles. Magnetic pole shift is one of the more absurd conspiracy theories related to climate change.

Quoting 7. Misanthroptimist:


http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/GeomagneticPoles. shtml


Ha. Obviously the convoluted conspiracy theory is more apt to be correct than researched science. Haven't you been paying attention?
Quoting 8. Naga5000:



The geographic poles are different from magnetic poles. Magnetic pole shift is one of the more absurd conspiracy theories related to climate change.




Thanks for the correction....What does the switching of the poles do??? Maybe impact atmospheric pressure or alter the jet stream??? I am asking because I have no clue...
(CHICAGO) - NASA has been warning about it%u2026scientific papers have been written about it%u2026geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples%u2026



Now "it" is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world's weather.

Forget about global warming%u2014man-made or natural%u2014what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

Link

Edit: I will have to do research on this....
Quoting 10. yoboi:



Thanks for the correction....What does the switching of the poles do??? Maybe impact atmospheric pressure or alter the jet stream??? I am asking because I have no clue...


Magnetic pole reversal would be a godsend to compass manufacturers. Link
Quoting 11. yoboi:

(CHICAGO) - NASA has been warning about it…scientific papers have been written about it…geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples…



Now "it" is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world's weather.

Forget about global warming—man-made or natural—what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

Link


And it took you 3 whole minutes to find the conspiracy. Please see post 12 for clarification.
Thank You Dr. Masters for the new blog post. Amazing that we have witnessed five Category 5's this year so far, and with an active EPAC season expected I will not be surprised that we have more considering how warm the waters are in that region.

Weather aside on the climate front it seems the process is speeding up.

NASA: 10,000-year-old Antarctic ice shelf will disappear by 2020

(CNN)One of the last remaining sections of Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf is dramatically weakening, according to a new NASA study.

The study predicts that what remains of the once-prominent ice shelf, a thick floating platform of ice, most likely will "disintegrate completely" before the end of this decade

Ice shelves are extensions of glaciers and function as barriers. Their disappearance means glaciers potentially will diminish more quickly, as well, increasing the pace at which global sea levels rise.


European Space Agency satellite images from 2002, left, and 2012 reveal the disintegration of the Antarctic ice shelf.

A team led by Ala Khazendar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, found evidence of the ice shelf flowing faster and becoming more fragmented. The flow is creating large cracks in the ice shelf.

"These are warning signs that the remnant is disintegrating," Khazendar said in a NASA press release. "Although it's fascinating scientifically to have a front-row seat to watch the ice shelf becoming unstable and breaking up, it's bad news for our planet."

The Larsen B Ice Shelf has existed for at least 10,000 years.

The ice shelf's disintegrating state came into light after it partially collapsed in 2002. Scientists watched in amazement as the ice shelf splintered and vanished rapidly in six weeks. No one had ever witnessed a large ice mass disappear so quickly, according to Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist at Slate.

The collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf seems to have been caused by a series of warm summers on the Antarctic Peninsula, which happen during what in the Northern Hemisphere are winter months. Those trends built up to a particularly warm summer in 2002, according to NASA.

Larsen B measured 4,445 square miles in January 1995. It went down to 2,573 square miles in February 2002 after the major disintegration, and a month later Larsen B was down to 1,337 square miles.

At present the Larsen B remnant is about 618 square miles. That's less than half the size of Rhode Island, the smallest U.S. state. Two decades ago, Larsen B was slightly smaller than the state of Connecticut.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory glaciologist Eric Rignot, who co-authored the paper, said the research gives insight into how ice shelves closer to the South Pole will react with the warming climate.

Study raises concerns over big, rapidly thinning Antarctic glacier

"What is really surprising about Larsen B is how quickly the changes are taking place," Khazendar said. "Change has been relentless."

Ice shelves are particularly sensitive to atmospheric warming and changes to ocean temperature, said Helmut Rott from the University of Innsbruck after the European Space Agency observed a rapid retreat of Larsen B Ice Shelf in April 2012 via satellite images.

Other prominent ice shelves in the region also have been affected over the years.

Larsen A disintegrated in January 1995. Larsen C has been somewhat stable with some evidence of thinning and melting, the space agency said after observing satellite imagery in 2012.

First quarter of 2015 the warmest on record.
Quoting 12. Naga5000:



Magnetic pole reversal would be a godsend to compass manufacturers. Link


Heh, anyone who invested in clock manufacturing stocks would be incredibly rich if that happened.
Quoting 12. Naga5000:



Magnetic pole reversal would be a godsend to compass manufacturers. Link



Thanks I will give it a read...
Quoting 8. Naga5000:



The geographic poles are different from magnetic poles. Magnetic pole shift is one of the more absurd conspiracy theories related to climate change.




Sounds like someone has been watching too much H2 on the tee-vee.

On a different note, I don't any more invests out there at the moment. Besides a raging (weakening) Super Typhoon there doesn't seem to be much out there.
Quoting 5. Stormlover16:

Thanks Doc! However, I have noticed one flaw with your article. Dolphin is actually the sixth category 5; Bansi of January was the first category 5. It appears that it peaked between two advisories, but it is listed as a category 5. Thanks again for the wonderful post!
Looks like it peaked on January 13th.

Link
Quoting 8. Naga5000:



The geographic poles are different from magnetic poles. Magnetic pole shift is one of the more absurd conspiracy theories related to climate change.



Howdy Naga. It may not have an impact on the climate per se, but if the poles reversed in a manner that left the Earth open to solar radiation or CME, there certainly could be serious problems..Remember, theory has it that this does not occur quickly, prolonging radiation exposure to almost all life.
Quoting 11. yoboi:

Edit: I will have to do research on this....
Feel free to do so; that's how one learns. But I'd suggest "researching" by reading actual science papers by actual scientists; overblown nonsense written by "citizen journalists" and published next to "Cannabis News" in an obscure online "news" source will certainly steer you wrong.

However, more to the point, let's see what an actual scientist (Phil Plait) has to say about the particular article to which you linked:

"I’ll be up front right away: this claim is baloney. Garbage. Nonsense."

"...[T]he article makes basic science errors, attempts to link totally unrelated phenomena, states things as facts that are pure conjecture, and generally gets almost everything wrong. Bottom line: his claim of a link between the Earth’s magnetic field and superstorms is totally wrong."

"Aym makes scientific claims that are completely unfounded in reality, and sometimes says things that are simply dead wrong."

"The article goes on and on, piling up one distortion of science on top of another."

"So what’s the takeaway from all this? Well, the big one is that breathless doomsday articles are generally hugely misleading, if not outright wrong. This one is certainly wrong. Big claims with shaky evidence, exaggerated conclusions, an apparent misunderstanding of basic science, and lots of supposition stated as fact — all this points to the conclusion that this article distorts reality beyond recognition."
Quoting 12. Naga5000:



Magnetic pole reversal would be a godsend to compass manufacturers. Link


From the link that you provided....

." But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth"

Could the weaker field be causing the warming trend???
Quoting 8. Naga5000:



The geographic poles are different from magnetic poles. Magnetic pole shift is one of the more absurd conspiracy theories related to climate change.




Absurd you say? Humans and their Global Warming.

interesting site here on the poles moving................................Link
Quoting 24. LargoFl:

interesting site here on the poles moving................................Link


From your link...

Earth’s magnetic field is in a permanent state of flux. Magnetic north wanders, and every few hundred thousand years the polarity flips so that a compass would point south instead of north. Moreover, the strength of the magnetic field constantly changes – and it is currently showing signs of significant weakening.

I wonder how long it's been weak?? I will have to read more about this...
more strong storms today hope no tornado's like yesterday
Quoting 11. yoboi:

It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

Link

Edit: I will have to do research on this....


Mars and Venus have no magnetic poles, so this is hype
Quoting 25. yoboi:



From your link...

Earth’s magnetic field is in a permanent state of flux. Magnetic north wanders, and every few hundred thousand years the polarity flips so that a compass would point south instead of north. Moreover, the strength of the magnetic field constantly changes – and it is currently showing signs of significant weakening.

I wonder how long it's been weak?? I will have to read more about this...
yeah I got that site from the Smithsonian inst....pretty interesting reading there.
Quoting 21. yoboi:



From the link that you provided....

." But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth"

Could the weaker field be causing the warming trend???


No. CO2 is primarily responsible for the current warming. Hard as it is to believe most scientists are not idiots. The obvious seldom escapes their notice.
Quoting 21. yoboi:



From the link that you provided....

." But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth"

Could the weaker field be causing the warming trend???

Good morning Yoboi..I hope you will pardon me joining this topic. The light from the Sun that reaches the earth is largely composed of non-ionizing radiation, since the ionizing far-ultraviolet rays have been filtered out by the gases in the atmosphere, particularly oxygen. Ionized Radiation is dangerous , and even x-rays can cause illness if exposed to long. A weakened magnetic field may indeed have an affect. It would take me to long to explain , so here is an excerpt and a link...

The ionosphere is a region of Earth's upper atmosphere, from about 60 km (37 mi) to 600 km (370 mi) altitude, and includes the thermosphere and parts of the mesosphere and exosphere. It is distinguished because it is ionized by solar radiation. It plays an important part in atmospheric electricity and forms the inner edge of the magnetosphere. It has practical importance because, among other functions, it influences radio propagation to distant places on the Earth.

Geophysics

The ionosphere is a shell of electrons and electrically charged atoms and molecules that surrounds the Earth, stretching from a height of about 50 km (31 mi) to more than 1,000 km (620 mi). It owes its existence primarily to ultraviolet radiation from the Sun.

The lowest part of the Earth's atmosphere, the troposphere extends from the surface to about 10 km (6.2 mi). Above 10 km (6.2 mi) is the stratosphere, followed by the mesosphere. In the stratosphere incoming solar radiation creates the ozone layer. At heights of above 80 km (50 mi), in the thermosphere, the atmosphere is so thin that free electrons can exist for short periods of time before they are captured by a nearby positive ion. The number of these free electrons is sufficient to affect radio propagation. This portion of the atmosphere is ionized and contains a plasma which is referred to as the ionosphere. In a plasma, the negative free electrons and the positive ions are attracted to each other by the electrostatic force, but they are too energetic to stay fixed together in an electrically neutral molecule.

Ultraviolet (UV), X-ray and shorter wavelengths of solar radiation are ionizing, since photons at these frequencies contain sufficient energy to dislodge an electron from a neutral gas atom or molecule upon absorption. In this process the light electron obtains a high velocity so that the temperature of the created electronic gas is much higher (of the order of thousand K) than the one of ions and neutrals. The reverse process to ionization is recombination, in which a free electron is "captured" by a positive ion. Recombination occurs spontaneously, and causes the emission of a photon carrying away the energy produced upon recombination. As gas density increases at lower altitudes, the recombination process prevails, since the gas molecules and ions are closer together. The balance between these two processes determines the quantity of ionization present.

Ionization depends primarily on the Sun and its activity. The amount of ionization in the ionosphere varies greatly with the amount of radiation received from the Sun. Thus there is a diurnal (time of day) effect and a seasonal effect. The local winter hemisphere is tipped away from the Sun, thus there is less received solar radiation. The activity of the Sun is associated with the sunspot cycle, with more radiation occurring with more sunspots. Radiation received also varies with geographical location (polar, auroral zones, mid-latitudes, and equatorial regions). There are also mechanisms that disturb the ionosphere and decrease the ionization. There are disturbances such as solar flares and the associated release of charged particles into the solar wind which reaches the Earth and interacts with its geomagnetic field.


Link
Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like it peaked on January 13th.

Link


I looked at that, but JTWC did not rate Bansi as a Cat 5; they had it peaking at 150 mph winds. I'm using JTWC for my Cat 5 ratings.

Dr. M.
Quoting 30. hydrus:

Good morning Yoboi..I hope you will pardon me joining this topic. The light from the Sun that reaches the earth is largely composed of non-ionizing radiation, since the ionizing far-ultraviolet rays have been filtered out by the gases in the atmosphere, particularly oxygen. Ionized Radiation is dangerous , and even x-rays can cause illness if exposed to long. A weakened magnetic field may indeed have an affect. It would take me to long to explain , so here is an excerpt and a link...

The ionosphere is a region of Earth's upper atmosphere, from about 60 km (37 mi) to 600 km (370 mi) altitude, and includes the thermosphere and parts of the mesosphere and exosphere. It is distinguished because it is ionized by solar radiation. It plays an important part in atmospheric electricity and forms the inner edge of the magnetosphere. It has practical importance because, among other functions, it influences radio propagation to distant places on the Earth.

Geophysics

The ionosphere is a shell of electrons and electrically charged atoms and molecules that surrounds the Earth, stretching from a height of about 50 km (31 mi) to more than 1,000 km (620 mi). It owes its existence primarily to ultraviolet radiation from the Sun.

The lowest part of the Earth's atmosphere, the troposphere extends from the surface to about 10 km (6.2 mi). Above 10 km (6.2 mi) is the stratosphere, followed by the mesosphere. In the stratosphere incoming solar radiation creates the ozone layer. At heights of above 80 km (50 mi), in the thermosphere, the atmosphere is so thin that free electrons can exist for short periods of time before they are captured by a nearby positive ion. The number of these free electrons is sufficient to affect radio propagation. This portion of the atmosphere is ionized and contains a plasma which is referred to as the ionosphere. In a plasma, the negative free electrons and the positive ions are attracted to each other by the electrostatic force, but they are too energetic to stay fixed together in an electrically neutral molecule.

Ultraviolet (UV), X-ray and shorter wavelengths of solar radiation are ionizing, since photons at these frequencies contain sufficient energy to dislodge an electron from a neutral gas atom or molecule upon absorption. In this process the light electron obtains a high velocity so that the temperature of the created electronic gas is much higher (of the order of thousand K) than the one of ions and neutrals. The reverse process to ionization is recombination, in which a free electron is "captured" by a positive ion. Recombination occurs spontaneously, and causes the emission of a photon carrying away the energy produced upon recombination. As gas density increases at lower altitudes, the recombination process prevails, since the gas molecules and ions are closer together. The balance between these two processes determines the quantity of ionization present.

Ionization depends primarily on the Sun and its activity. The amount of ionization in the ionosphere varies greatly with the amount of radiation received from the Sun. Thus there is a diurnal (time of day) effect and a seasonal effect. The local winter hemisphere is tipped away from the Sun, thus there is less received solar radiation. The activity of the Sun is associated with the sunspot cycle, with more radiation occurring with more sunspots. Radiation received also varies with geographical location (polar, auroral zones, mid-latitudes, and equatorial regions). There are also mechanisms that disturb the ionosphere and decrease the ionization. There are disturbances such as solar flares and the associated release of charged particles into the solar wind which reaches the Earth and interacts with its geomagnetic field.


Link


Thanks for joining in....I am learning a lot...
New 1,000ft tower built in the heart of the Amazon rainforest to monitor climate is taller than the Shard and the Eiffel Tower and dwarfs the Statue of Liberty

Link
Quoting 19. hydrus:


Howdy Naga. It may not have an impact on the climate per se, but if the poles reversed in a manner that left the Earth open to solar radiation or CME, there certainly could be serious problems..Remember, theory has it that this does not occur quickly, prolonging radiation exposure to almost all life.


According to Nasa, and the historic record, there is no evidence that previous pole reversals caused any significant effect on life on the planet. And again, according to Nasa there is no evidence to support a lack of magnetic field during please reversal, only a weakening then a reversal, as opposed to a vanishing and a reversal. Sure a weakened field experiencing a very large CME may have some effect, but non that's getting into low probability conjecture.

As for the climate change issue where this was inevitably heading, there is nothing to suggest the magnetic field weakening or reversing would cause any significant effect on climate. Which I see you posted about in #30 with a very detailed post. Nice. :)
For the daily enso update!

What's the trick to view photos correctly on this site? iPhone 6 user here
Quoting 11. yoboi:

(CHICAGO) - NASA has been warning about it%u2026scientific papers have been written about it%u2026geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples%u2026



Now "it" is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world's weather.

Forget about global warming%u2014man-made or natural%u2014what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

Link

Edit: I will have to do research on this....


No it isn't happening to every planet because not every planet has a magnetic field. And among those that do what drives them are different.

The Earth is dynamo, thinks to it's spinning core of liquid iron/nickel. Being liquid, the orientation of the flow can change. When it changes, the magnetic field changes. So magnetic poles migrate over time, sometimes flipping over entirely.

But the only way for the magnetic field to vanish entirely is to either induce so much turbulence in the flow as to prevent any large scale coherence, or for the core to stop motion entirely. Neither of these is likely short of a literal "earth shattering" event.

All hell doesn't break loose either. Even when the poles migrate there is still a magnetic field. It gets a little weaker. A little more ionizing radiation reaches the surface. But that's about it. If the magnetic field were to have vanished entirely during these periods of transition, there is an exceedingly high probability we wouldn't be here talking about it as the combined solar and cosmic radiation would have sterilized the surface in relatively short order. And since the pole migration relatively frequently, we can be pretty sure there has always been enough left of the field to shield life on Earth.

The magnetic field has nothing to do with weather or climate. The strength of the field even in the strongest areas is .65 micro teslas. Your refrigerator magnets have more strength. But it's more than enough to deflect the ionizing radiation from the solar wind.

I'm also skeptical of any article claiming a link between global warming and pole shifting. Yes, the melting ice sheets can cause some geological changes in the regions they are in, but compared to the internal dynamics that govern the planet's magnetic field they're not even a drop in the bucket. It's like saying a mosquito far can stop the hurricane that's over your head. The Earth is approximately 6x10^24 kg, with the crust representing just a tiny fraction of that. The ice sheets are even a tinier fraction. From a basic physics perspective, it doesn't make any sense, especially when you throw in the short timescale.
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

For the daily enso update!



There was a interesting conversation on Twitter between Eric Blake and JB about El Nino:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 42m42 minutes ago
Best argument I've seen recently against an extremely strong #ElNino is from @BigJoeBastardi -MJO activity quite weak

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 Interesting model wars too. Waiting on the new JAMSTEC as it has always been very good at trimming expectations since 09

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 31m31 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue For May, for a strengthening event (not tail end), 2015 is warmest ever. will it keep up?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 vast difference around Australia between now and 1997. Nothing like an @RyanMaue map to show it!

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue agree this isn't 1997. E/CPac looks like 92 but Nino going other direction than 92

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 27m27 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi haven't seen this type of event in modern era, the totality of Pacific warmth in May-- good science experiment

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 Maybe tough to gage totality of the picture and the linkage needed with other major dns, similar to late 1950s event
A severe weather outbreak will continue in the Midwest on Sunday.

Since Saturday afternoon, there have been 28 reports of tornadoes across nine states, including Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Iowa and Louisiana.

Sunday's severe weather and flash flooding potential will extend from Minnesota, Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan to portions of Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and Texas.
Saturday's Reports:

A tornado struck Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, around 11:30 p.m. CDT Saturday. There are reports of structural damage and power outages in the area. The storm also damaged homes near Inola, Oklahoma, and that damage may also have been from a tornado.
The same circulation that affected Broken Arrow later produced a reported tornado near Fairland in Ottawa County, Oklahoma, damaging homes. There are early reports of damage from the same storm just to the east in Newton County, Missouri.
Earlier, a large tornado was reported in southwest Oklahoma around 6 p.m. CDT on Saturday. It tracked from south of Elmer to near Tipton to north of Manitou; it briefly crossed a bend in the Red River into extreme northern Texas along its path. Sporadic damage was reported along its path, though the twister did not hit any towns directly.
Police in Lyon County, Kansas, report storm damage across the county, including a stopped train that was blown over. Homes and barns were also damaged by the suspected tornado. The National Weather Service in Topeka plans to survey the damage Sunday.
Elsewhere in Oklahoma, tornadoes were reported 9 miles south of Anadarko; near Meers; and near Elk City along Interstate 80.
A multi-vortex tornado was reported 3 miles west-southwest of Murdock in west-central Minnesota at 5:51 p.m. CDT. Another brief tornado was reported northwest of Murdock Saturday afternoon.
A brief tornado touchdown was reported near Rosen, Minnesota, around 4:25 p.m. CDT. Ten minutes later, a tornado hit a farmstead north of Montevideo in Chippewa County, taking part of the roof off a building. Both locations are in west-central Minnesota.
A tornado was reported in the Texas Panhandle just after 2:30 p.m. CDT. Reports say it crossed U.S. Highway 287 near Lelia Lake, according to storm chasers in the area. Earlier, the day's first tornado report came in about 10 miles north of Silverton, Texas, at 1:12 p.m. CDT.
Law enforcement reported a tornado near Highway 14/16/20 in eastern Park County of northwest Wyoming around 1:30 p.m. MDT.
Baseball-size hail was reported just south of Goodlett, Texas, at 4:47 p.m. CDT. The same cell dropped baseball-size hail in Quanah, Texas, a few minutes later. Baseball-size hail also fell in Castle, Oklahoma, around 10 p.m. CDT.
Quoting 4. trunkmonkey:

The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. Whether this is the beginning of a complete magnetic pole shift or not will likely be disputed until the event actually occurs, however, the above graph clearly shows the annual movement of the north magnetic pole to be increasing exponentially. In addition, the last year data has been made available on this pole movement is from the year 2005. This suggests that there may be a reason why the governments of the world are not releasing any data past 2005. Is it possible the magnetic pole movement after 2005 would cause concern the governments would rather avoid? This gives credence to the global warming theorists, the only information being released by Governments is on Climate Change, and not one word about the shifting of polarities.

Something else worth mentioning and which may be significant is that the North Magnetic Pole has moved (about 12 degrees latitude and 18 degrees longitude) which is farther than the South Magnetic Pole (about 8 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude) during the same period of time. Could the inequality of movement between the poles be creating a potential for a spontaneous magnetic adjustment at some point in the future? Is it also possible that magnetic position data after 2005 could present an even more dramatic difference?
...

Some notes on the geodynamo:
1. There have been many polarity reversals in the geomagnetic field throughout geological time and none of these are associated with extinction events.
2. The geomagnetic poles have been shifting position throughout recorded history, and most likely this is their normal behavior.
3. The geomagnetic field strength is currently 8E22 A-m^2, which is a relatively strong value in the paleomagnetic record:

The above figure is discussed in this paper: David R Fearn, "The Geodynamo" 2004 (pdf)
4. One of the authors of the 1995 seminal paper in Nature that first successfully modeled the Earth's magnetic field is Professor Gary A Glatzmaier. His lecture notes and many of his papers are available in full on the web. For example, a book chapter from 2007: sites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~glatz/pub/glatzmaier_coe_tog_2 007.pdf (remove spaces)

Simulations show that even during a magnetic reversal, the Earth's magnetic field will not disappear, but rather multiple magnetic poles will temporarily form until the polarity reversal is complete.

There is really very little evidence that we can expect a polarity reversal in our lifetime. The "doomsday scenario" hype that we see on the internet is completely unwarranted and goes against the science. At worst, "some geophysicists predict a reversal within a few thousand years", but it is hardly a consensus: Earth's magnetic field could flip within a human lifetime.
No reason for panic, humanity has other much worse problems to work on.
Quoting 34. Naga5000:



According to Nasa, and the historic record, there is no evidence that previous pole reversals caused any significant effect on life on the planet. And again, according to Nasa there is no evidence to support a lack of magnetic field during please reversal, only a weakening then a reversal, as opposed to a vanishing and a reversal. Sure a weakened field experiencing a very large CME may have some effect, but non that's getting into low probability conjecture.

As for the climate change issue where this was inevitably heading, there is nothing to suggest the magnetic field weakening or reversing would cause any significant effect on climate. Which I see you posted about in #30 with a very detailed post. Nice. :)
Large animals ( including humans ) were too scarce during the last reversal to obtain much data, or determine whether there were any hazardous effects. Microfossil data can be useful, but not much value when one considers how differently mammals and micro organisms react to radiation. There is not much to go on where data is concerned. Suffice it to say, radiation can be very dangerous or deadly.
taken from a NASA site.....(clip)............Another doomsday hypothesis about a geomagnetic flip plays up fears about incoming solar activity. This suggestion mistakenly assumes that a pole reversal would momentarily leave Earth without the magnetic field that protects us from solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun. But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth – as well as a beautiful display of aurora at lower latitudes - but nothing deadly. Moreover, even with a weakened magnetic field, Earth's thick atmosphere also offers protection against the sun's incoming particles.

The science shows that magnetic pole reversal is – in terms of geologic time scales – a common occurrence that happens gradually over millennia. While the conditions that cause polarity reversals are not entirely predictable – the north pole's movement could subtly change direction, for instance – there is nothing in the millions of years of geologic record to suggest that any of the 2012 doomsday scenarios connected to a pole reversal should be taken seriously. A reversal might, however, be good business for magnetic compass manufacturers.

Quoting 37. Xyrus2000:


No it isn't happening to every planet because not every planet has a magnetic field. And among those that do what drives them are different.

The Earth is dynamo, thinks to it's spinning core of liquid iron/nickel. Being liquid, the orientation of the flow can change. When it changes, the magnetic field changes. So magnetic poles migrate over time, sometimes flipping over entirely.

But the only way for the magnetic field to vanish entirely is to either induce so much turbulence in the flow as to prevent any large scale coherence, or for the core to stop motion entirely. Neither of these is likely short of a literal "earth shattering" event.

All hell doesn't break loose either. Even when the poles migrate there is still a magnetic field. It gets a little weaker. A little more ionizing radiation reaches the surface. But that's about it. If the magnetic field were to have vanished entirely during these periods of transition, there is an exceedingly high probability we wouldn't be here talking about it as the combined solar and cosmic radiation would have sterilized the surface in relatively short order. And since the pole migration relatively frequently, we can be pretty sure there has always been enough left of the field to shield life on Earth.

The magnetic field has nothing to do with weather or climate. The strength of the field even in the strongest areas is .65 micro teslas. Your refrigerator magnets have more strength. But it's more than enough to deflect the ionizing radiation from the solar wind.

I'm also skeptical of any article claiming a link between global warming and pole shifting. Yes, the melting ice sheets can cause some geological changes in the regions they are in, but compared to the internal dynamics that govern the planet's magnetic field they're not even a drop in the bucket. It's like saying a mosquito far can stop the hurricane that's over your head. The Earth is approximately 6x10^24 kg, with the crust representing just a tiny fraction of that. The ice sheets are even a tinier fraction. From a basic physics perspective, it doesn't make any sense, especially when you throw in the short timescale.
This article will help explain why the article originally linked is hysterical nonsense. Both articles were written in 2011. Since I'm still getting electric bills, the pole shift apparently hasn't killed too many of us.
Quoting 4. trunkmonkey:
The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. :)
You have previously claimed that the earth's magnetic field causes affects weather and/or climate.

Do you also believe the hurricane hunter airplanes could could use giant magnets to tow hurricanes - e.g., change their tracks?

On a more serious note, everyone with an ounce of common sense knows that decreasing numbers of pirates is the cause of global warming.



/snark
In regards to the sever weather I. The plains, I have seen reports that some of the reservoirs in Texas or near 100 percent, one even reports a level not seen since 1960. But the lake at San Angelo state park is still at .56 percent full. In other words, if it doubled in size it would only be 99 percent empty.

It takes a lot to rebuild from a drought.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 10. yoboi:



Thanks for the correction....What does the switching of the poles do??? Maybe impact atmospheric pressure or alter the jet stream??? I am asking because I have no clue...
Plussed for your last sentence - you said it - I did not!
Quoting 25. yoboi:


From your link...

Earth%u2019s magnetic field is in a permanent state of flux. Magnetic north wanders, and every few hundred thousand years the polarity flips so that a compass would point south instead of north. Moreover, the strength of the magnetic field constantly changes %u2013 and it is currently showing signs of significant weakening.

I wonder how long it's been weak?? I will have to read more about this...
At least 55 years, which is about how long ago I learned to use a map and compass. Look up declination. It's the difference between true North (the geographical North Pole) and the magnetic North Pole. The real North Pole doesn't move, only the magnetic Pole, and that affects magnetic compasses. Every topographical map has a declination arrow and value so you can correct for the difference, since a compass has no idea where the North Pole really is, just magnetic North. If I had sent search teams off using an uncorrected magnetic North, they would be almost 14 degrees off from what's really true on the ground. There's a good site run by NOAA that allows you to see declination for any spot on Earth. This would have made life a lot easier for me back in the day. You can also see historic declination for any spot on earth and calculate the rate of change yourself. Contrary to the article you posted, declination is updated at least monthly, and the most current declination readings are used at the NOAA site. I know they are part of the NWO conspiracy, but none of my teams ever ended up in the next county, so I have faith in what they post.
Quoting 43. hydrus:

Large animals ( including humans ) were too scarce during the last reversal to obtain much data, or determine whether there were any hazardous effects. Microfossil data can be useful, but not much value when one considers how differently mammals and micro organisms react to radiation. There is not much to go on where data is concerned. Suffice it to say, radiation can be very dangerous or deadly.
Why focus on the last one? Pick any of the below and provide evidence:

Source: A.R.T. Jonkers / Physics of the Earth andPlanetary Interiors 135 (2003) 253–266
Quoting 31. JeffMasters:



I looked at that, but JTWC did not rate Bansi as a Cat 5; they had it peaking at 150 mph winds. I'm using JTWC for my Cat 5 ratings.

Dr. M.

That's interesting, JTWC must have done some revision work then since Bansi was operationally rated at 140 kt/160 mph by JTWC at 00Z January 13th. That's the data that is still showing up in the NRL trackfile.

Link
Quoting 49. sar2401:



Nice to see you back!
Quoting 49. sar2401:

At least 55 years, which is about how long ago I learned to use a map and compass. Look up declination. It's the difference between true North (the geographical North Pole) and the magnetic North Pole. The real North Pole doesn't move, only the magnetic Pole, and that affects magnetic compasses. Every topographical map has a declination arrow and value so you can correct for the difference, since a compass has no idea where the North Pole really is, just magnetic North. If I had sent search terams off using an uncorrected magnetic North, they would be almost 14 degrees off from what's really true on the ground. There's a good site run by NOAA that allows you to see declination for any spot on Earth. This would have made life a lot easier for me back in the day. You can also see historic declination for any spot on earth and calculate the rate of change yourself. Contrary to the article you posted, declination is updated at least monthly, and the most current declination readings are used at the NOAA site. I know they are part of the NWO conspiracy, but none of my teams ever ended up in the next county, so I have faith in what they post.
The online sources are a big advance and very valuable. My company recently bought a geomagnetic gradiometer and I was responsible for writing data collection code and field testing. I was "coached" by geophysicists who spent decades in the field doing geomagnetic surveying. For highly accurate surveys of underground magnetic anomalies, a base station is needed that tracks the daily drift of the geomagnetic vector magnitude and direction for the purpose of making corrections to the survey data.
Quoting 52. swflurker:
Nice to see you back!

Thank you. As long as I have this back door way to still use the second version of Classic, I can still get in here when there's something interesting and post without my computer locking up. That happens within 10 minutes using the new site.
I have had issues with falling asleep my entire. I cannot do it in silence, so I will normally put something really boring on TV or the radio. One evening I was treated to a fake documentary on the boring conspiracy channel "History Channel." Usually this crap puts me out in about 10-15 minutes. This time however I engaged in my own personal version of Mystery Science Theater 3000 because the absurdity was so entertaining. I watched most of it cracking jokes out loud and laughing myself to tears. It was all about the weakening magnetic field and related vile vortices, bermuda triangle, etc.....

It was called: The Devil's Graveyard
Link

It really made me miss one my old favorite shows Mystery Science Theater 3000 and wonder if it could make a comeback heckling stuff like this and conspiracy websites.

Since somehow this absurd stuff makes it into weather/climate discussions I thought I would give my perspective.
Quoting 50. guygee:

Why focus on the last one? Pick any of the below and provide evidence:

Source: A.R.T. Jonkers / Physics of the Earth andPlanetary Interiors 135 (2003) 253–266


Morning, guygee - interesting graph. However, I needed a bit of a refresher to understand 'C33r-C1n'.

I found what I needed in Essentials of Paleomagnetism: Second Web Edition, in Chapter 15,
The GPTS and magnetostratigraphy
(in particular Table 15.1).

What a way to jump start my verrrry slow Sunday morning :)
Quoting 53. guygee:
The online sources are a big advance and very valuable. My company recently bought a geomagnetic gradiometer and I was responsible for writing data collection code and field testing. I was "coached" by geophysicists who spent decades in the field doing geomagnetic surveying. For highly accurate surveys of underground magnetic anomalies, a base station is needed that tracks the daily drift of the geomagnetic vector magnitude and direction for the purpose of making corrections to the survey data.
Indeed, but I just wanted to make sure my search teams didn't end up in the next county. :-0 We had several areas along the coast with big magnetic anomalies. It is apparently caused by the rock getting crushed up by the San Andreas Fault. It never failed that someone would get lost near one of these. Until the availability of cheap handheld GPS units, we had to write assignments that included instructions to use an 80 degree east declination on their map and compass for teams that were in those areas. They didn't end up in the next county, but I did have some very confused teams from time to time.
Quoting 53. guygee:

The online sources are a big advance and very valuable. My company recently bought a geomagnetic gradiometer and I was responsible for writing data collection code and field testing. I was "coached" by geophysicists who spent decades in the field doing geomagnetic surveying. For highly accurate surveys of underground magnetic anomalies, a base station is needed that tracks the daily drift of the geomagnetic vector magnitude and direction for the purpose of making corrections to the survey data.


I bought a metal detector 30 years ago, after reading about detecting enthusiasts down south in England, who had made lots of valuable archaeological finds, including hoards of gold coins. It seemed like an interesting hobby, to take up, even if I only found the odd old coin.

However, where live in Scotland, has lots of iron ore, and I was digging up rocks all the time. It even detected coal, and there was plenty of that, too. I happened to mention this to a farmer down the pub, and I heard later that the local farmers then called in an expert to advise them if there were coal deposits that could be mined. The expert told them that there was coal, but the seams were only inches thick.
It'll be interesting to see what the Eastern Pacific spins up this year, I think.
Quoting 46. Xulonn:

You have previously claimed that the earth's magnetic field causes affects weather and/or climate.

Do you also believe the hurricane hunter airplanes could could use giant magnets to tow hurricanes - e.g., change their tracks?

On a more serious note, everyone with an ounce of common sense knows that decreasing numbers of pirates is the cause of global warming.



/snark


It's the pirates, obviously.
Link
Remembering those who gave all,

Quoting 59. yonzabam:



I bought a metal detector 30 years ago, after reading about detecting enthusiasts down south in England, who had made lots of valuable archaeological finds, including hoards of gold coins. It seemed like an interesting hobby, to take up, even if I only found the odd old coin.

However, where live in Scotland, has lots of iron ore, and I was digging up rocks all the time. It even detected coal, and there was plenty of that, too. I happened to mention this to a farmer down the pub, and I heard later that the local farmers then called in an expert to advise them if there were coal deposits that could be mined. The expert told them that there was coal, but the seams were only inches thick.
There are many types of metal detectors that use different physical principles. Magnetic gradiometers detect the presence of ferromagnetic materials and the resulting distortion on the Earth's magnetic field. Other types of metal detectors take advantage of the electrical conductivity of metal. Of the latter there are several types, including radio frequency injection detectors, time-domain electromagnetic induction sensors, and ground-penetrating radar. All of these methods would be negatively affected by the presence of iron-ore. Seismic surveying should have been employed if iron-ore was present.
Quoting 54. sar2401:


Thank you. As long as I have this back door way to still use the second version of Classic, I can still get in here when there's something interesting and post without my computer locking up. That happens within 10 minutes using the new site.


Backdoor?
Quoting 58. sar2401:

Indeed, but I just wanted to make sure my search teams didn't end up in the next county. :-0 We had several areas along the coast with big magnetic anomalies. It is apparently caused by the rock getting crushed up by the San Andreas Fault. It never failed that someone would get lost near one of these. Until the availability of cheap handheld GPS units, we had to write assignments that included instructions to use an 80 degree east declination on their map and compass for teams that were in those areas. They didn't end up in the next county, but I did have some very confused teams from time to time.
"The good old days", lol. GPS is pervasive these days, but you may still need those skills if you are under trees or in a canyon, where satellite signals are sporadic at best.
Quoting 56. LAbonbon:


Morning, guygee - interesting graph. However, I needed a bit of a refresher to understand 'C33r-C1n'.

I found what I needed in Essentials of Paleomagnetism: Second Web Edition, in Chapter 15,
The GPTS and magnetostratigraphy
(in particular Table 15.1).

What a way to jump start my verrrry slow Sunday morning :)
Nice find LAbonbon, I am going to bookmark that one for reference, thanks!
I found it!!! The magnetic field weakening, polar reversal!!! The info is all on the web. There is an investigation: Link

It doesn't get any more clear than this.

Climate Chaos!!
5/16/2015 Elmer OK Large Violent Wedge Tornado

I feel like a broken record saying this these past few years, but look at that motion!

P.S. Does anyone know how to embed YouTube videos here? I've been lost ever since YouTube abandoned old embed code. :)
Quoting 31. JeffMasters:



I looked at that, but JTWC did not rate Bansi as a Cat 5; they had it peaking at 150 mph winds. I'm using JTWC for my Cat 5 ratings.

Dr. M.
Thanks for confirming that with us. It's always a pleasure Dr. Masters. Hope all is well with you. :)
warm up here in east haven,conn temp 77F AND sunny!!
Check out what's happening in Fairbanks, AK

Forecast 85F by Friday



rain and t.storms for the northeast on tuesday night
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:

5/16/2015 Elmer OK Large Violent Wedge Tornado

I feel like a broken record saying this these past few years, but look at that motion!

P.S. Does anyone know how to embed YouTube videos here? I've been lost ever since YouTube abandoned old embed code. :)

Neapolitan's YouTube Old Embed Coderizer

This works well...however I can only get it to work in Firefox.
Typhoon Dolphin

Typhoon Dolphin
Last Updated May 17, 2015 12 GMT
Location 19.4N 138.5E Movement N
Wind 145 MPH
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:

P.S. Does anyone know how to embed YouTube videos here? I've been lost ever since YouTube abandoned old embed code. :)
I've noticed a lot of people have switched to using vine.co when sharing videos these days. If the video is on youtube, there is a program called youtube-dl that works well downloading videos to put back on vine.
Enough off-topic for one day, cheers all!
Dolphin is starting to weaken but will remain a strong category 3 hurricane brushing the Japaneese Iwo To Islands. It peaked at 160mph.

Read more..
Quoting 65. swflurker:


Backdoor?
Send me a WUmail if you're interested.
Quoting 66. guygee:
"The good old days", lol. GPS is pervasive these days, but you may still need those skills if you are under trees or in a canyon, where satellite signals are sporadic at best.
Quite correct. A GPS is a great tool but there are times it won't work, and heavy low clouds can be added to that list. We had plenty of them. Because of this, we still taught map and compass, much to the dismay and protests of some of our team members. I had to drag a few of them out to one nortorious canyon we knew of then. I'd drop them off and told them to make their way due north for three miles and I'd pick them up. Not many without compasses made it out before dinner. Most of those who didn't were at least smart enough to backtrack and wait at the starting point until they got picked up. That solved the problem for a couple of years, until I got a bunch of FNG's. Then I had to do it again. :-)
Quoting 36. bayou601:

What's the trick to view photos correctly on this site? iPhone 6 user here
I see no one has answered you. I have an Android so I'm not much help with an iPhone. Are you able to view any images at all, or are the images disorted? I know the iPhone 6 has some issues with websites that haven't updated their code to handle x2 images that the 6 wants to see. One of the things to try is to reset Safari to the default values in case you've accidentally (or on purpose) turned off display of images on the web. I wish I could be of more help but my Samsung GS4 Mini displays the images here without a problem. It's slower than a slug, but the pictures do display.
Thank You Dr. Don't know the overall stats El Nino wise for the NW Pacific but it seems from your post (with the reference to 1997) that a stronger El Nino creates very favorable lower shear conditions in that region. The current record numbers for the start of this Pacific season is probably related to the fact, noted last week on your Blog, of the rarity of seen the onset of a strong El Nino in the Spring (as opposed to the normal waning transition towards Enso neutral conditions (after a Winter-Fall El Nino event).

In terms of Conus today, here the relative position of the jet per GFS. We might see the strongest storms later in the upper mid west in terms of straight line wind issues.

Quoting 78. sar2401:

You have mail.
Here are the Conus forecast charts for today:


Quoting 72. ColoradoBob1:

Check out what's happening in Fairbanks, AK

Forecast 85F by Friday

It not just a one day event, it goes on for the next 10 days with variations and no rain!
Is there much ice in the area, Jn the form of galciers?
Landphoon anybody?
Quoting 84. PlazaRed:


It not just a one day event, it goes on for the next 10 days with variations and no rain!
Is there much ice in the area, Jn the form of galciers?


Probably that 'stuck' jet stream loop pattern that's been causing weather mayhem across the northern hemisphere for the past few years. Alaska is getting the 'upswing', while here in Scotland, we're getting the 'downswing', bringing cold air and gales for the past week.
So...Dolphin is the 6th category 5 tropical cyclone in the world so far May 16th, 2015...We still are waiting North Atlantic, Northeast/Central Pacific, North Indian and more 7 months in Northwest Pacific...Wow...Impressive situation.

My particular record of most category 5 in one year was in 2013 when i saw 7 category 5 storms in the world.
Quoting 86. yonzabam:



Probably that 'stuck' jet stream loop pattern that's been causing weather mayhem across the northern hemisphere for the past few years. Alaska is getting the 'upswing', while here in Scotland, we're getting the 'downswing', bringing cold air and gales for the past week.

Fairbanks is up to the right of center of Alaska.
Seems most of the high mountains and ice are on the south coast.

Link

It does not talk a lot to bring bad weather to Scotland, its about the same latitude as southern Alaska.
Interesting difference in SSTs between the Eastern Pacific and the GOM!

Quoting 89. PlazaRed:

Interesting difference in SSTs between the Eastern Pacific and the GOM!


Well the Gulf is still ready.
Quoting 47. Qazulight:

In regards to the sever weather I. The plains, I have seen reports that some of the reservoirs in Texas or near 100 percent, one even reports a level not seen since 1960. But the lake at San Angelo state park is still at .56 percent full. In other words, if it doubled in size it would only be 99 percent empty.

It takes a lot to rebuild from a drought.

Cheers
Qazulight


That lake is built for flood control, it has a secondary drinking water purpose.
Quoting 85. wxgeek723:

Landphoon anybody?



Another view.


Quick question......I am going to the USVI June 2-12. I noticed someone on another blog said the "wet phase of the MJO starts Tuesday". Can any of you verify this and tell me what that means? Also, how long does it usually last?

Thanks so much!
95. JRRP
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE INDICATED ON 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
...IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 15W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-31W.
Quoting 84. PlazaRed:


It not just a one day event, it goes on for the next 10 days with variations and no rain!
Is there much ice in the area, Jn the form of galciers?


Alaska is hotter than friggin South Florida
Quoting 45. sar2401:

This article will help explain why the article originally linked is hysterical nonsense. Both articles were written in 2011. Since I'm still getting electric bills, the pole shift apparently hasn't killed too many of us.


I read many articles about magnetic polar reversals and even had a professor in my MET program theorize aspects of it, and nothing has indicated mass die offs of humans. However, it was theorized that seismic and volcanic activity will increase and weather patterns will seem in lay terms topsy terbie. As of 2004 seismic and volcanic activity is on the rise. And the weather has shown it extremes lately. Its Sunday I don't have time to write all the facts not to mention I am sick. In conclusion, I don't know if we are in magnetic reversal but I cant disagree with the theory either. I know my professor said the last one was approx. 700K years ago and we are overdue for one. As for the movie like 2012 that's Hollywood BS. I don't think anyone was on the planet 700K years ago to tell us what happened.
Quoting 94. vital1:
Quick question......I am going to the USVI June 2-12. I noticed someone on another blog said the "wet phase of the MJO starts Tuesday". Can any of you verify this and tell me what that means? Also, how long does it usually last?

Thanks so much!
It doesn't mean anything in terms of your trip. "Wet phase" is not any hard and fixed thing with MJO and it certainly can't be extrapolated to the Virgin's in the short term. Climatology gives you your best window into what the weather will be. The most likely weather is fabulous with the chance of a short shower to cool things off in the afternoon. Enjoy your trip and take plenty of sunscreen. :-)
100. vis0

Quoting 4. trunkmonkey:

The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. Whether this is the beginning of a complete magnetic pole shift or not will likely be disputed until the event actually occurs, however, the above graph clearly shows the annual movement of the north magnetic pole to be increasing exponentially. In addition, the last year data has been made available on this pole movement is from the year 2005. This suggests that there may be a reason why the governments of the world are not releasing any data past 2005. Is it possible the magnetic pole movement after 2005 would cause concern the governments would rather avoid? This gives credence to the global warming theorists, the only information being released by Governments is on Climate Change, and not one word about the shifting of polarities.

Something else worth mentioning and which may be significant is that the North Magnetic Pole has moved (about 12 degrees latitude and 18 degrees longitude) which is farther than the South Magnetic Pole (about 8 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude) during the same period of time. Could the inequality of movement between the poles be creating a potential for a spontaneous magnetic adjustment at some point in the future? Is it also possible that magnetic position data after 2005 could present an even more dramatic difference?

:)
If a member with a Ph.D already replied to this Trunkmonkey comment  then ignore my words as my words might eventually be factual but in portions of what i state not yet discovered by science you'll look silly repeating them without understanding what it really means.

If no reply yet enjoy the following as SciFic and lower your salt intake by placing less salt on yer food and more on this comment.

There are 2 or 3 known "fields" that fall under the heading "North/South".

 Magnetic,True North (as to the planet's axis) and their affects on each other as δ.
 
What happens is a "dance" within the planet due to gravitational forces and that Earth is spinning.

Imagine a bubble (Magnetic field break-off blob) trapped in a glass globe full of molasses.
Spin & TILT that glass globe and watch that bubble try to go up then back down due to that glass globes tilting axis, like Earth..except humans ate all the molasses.

The Magnetic field does not stop it becomes tangled which can affect animals BUT that is minimal why?
In becoming tangled their pure colour becomes faint, huh!?

HERE COMES HE CRAZY TRAIN (Sit down   <`[.,Radar.,]≈     i didn't say gravy train) its a theory based on my weird science of Galacsics that states animals follow a specific Longitude Mag colours which keeps less complex animals at more of a  instinctively N-S or S-N Longitudinal movement together with the physical needs as temperatures/climate needs of their species. This longitude  colour segments is centered on NOT just via the planets magnetic field (which as it shifts the colours DO NOT DISAPPEAR but fade a bit till the mag fields are reset) but the closest stars output also bathe the planet as anything "complex" in this universe has this ability,

Imagine that via Longitude lines each 45 degree of Longitude are represented a colour of R O Y  G   B i V (sit down chicklet  stop dancing thinking i said Bell Biv DeVoe...) certain less complex animal's brains will stay within a certain colour or its hue when traveling, humans in losing this can travel W-E     E-W (longitudinally) more easily yet still get jet lag not just cause of time difference but in response to the Longitude colour change, Someone (& that person's friends) once took trips in balloons to move as slow as Earth rotated so their would be little  "jet lag" affects but their still was especially at long W-E & E-W distances, i say when they changed Longitudinal dominant colours...but again i'm nuts.



 This  R O Y G B I V thang as to light is not really just a colour thang but via certain low vibrations/resonances and BTW so are humans affected. A Dr. Israel (was at NYU 1990s then moved to Beth Israel,NYC) is figuring this out by studying how it seems children then young adults can repair traumatic injuries to their brain at a better rate the younger they are. It seems in ~8 yr cycles..i wrote as a kid that complex entities are "bathed" in 8 levels of "light" as 7 plus 1/2 + 1/2 to equal ~8. ,,,,but i digress. 
 

 If you saved my over 200 blogbytes you'll find clues amongst them to make at least 20 noble award wining discoveries, INjoy.
 
 ...♪♫...It's drivin' me out of my mind!♪♫
That's why it's HARD for me to find♪♫
Can't get it out of my head!♪♫
Miss her, kiss her, love her♪♫
(Wrong move you're dead!)♪♫

♪♫That girl is POISOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...♪♫
...........vis0::...ouch... i think i pulled a muscle dancing their moves (convenient injury otherwise Mods would have to >snip< the next ♪line.

 WEATHER that can turn severe is on RADAR (FIGURATIVELY?Y) so pay attention to nature.
Quoting 96. WeatherConvoy:



Alaska is hotter than friggin South Florida

Average temps for Fairbanks Alaska in May are 13/C.
Current temps there are averaging about twice this level.
This will be causing a stir in the permafrost!

Fire warning are in place and fires will probably be inevitable with this kind of heat.

Its not just the Fairbanks area, the temps all over the zone are high.
If you scroll down the link there are lots of nearby weather stations.

Link

Meanwhile in my town near Seville in Spain the present temps at 9.30 pm are 21/C.
Our devastating fires of the last few days are now under control.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Maybe the question should be.......Will we have only Cat 5 Typhoons?

Quoting 98. WeatherConvoy:


I read many articles about magnetic polar reversals and even had a professor in my MET program theorize aspects of it, and nothing has indicated mass die offs of humans. However, it was theorized that seismic and volcanic activity will increase and weather patterns will seem in lay terms topsy terbie. As of 2004 seismic and volcanic activity is on the rise. And the weather has shown it extremes lately. Its Sunday I don't have time to write all the facts not to mention I am sick. In conclusion, I don't know if we are in magnetic reversal but I cant disagree with the theory either. I know my professor said the last one was approx. 700K years ago and we are overdue for one. As for the movie like 2012 that's Hollywood BS. I don't think anyone was on the planet 700K years ago to tell us what happened.
I'm sorry to hear you're sick. You should read this article about polar reversal and what might happen. Polar reversal takes hundreds, if not thousands of years, and the signs leading up to it are pretty well understood. The biggest issue will be protecting things we depend on for technology from CME's. That includes satellites and things like communications networks and power supplies. It's possible to do that, just expensive, but we'll spend the money if it's clear a polar reversal is about to occur amid a profound weakening of the earth's magnetic fields. There's no evidence that a polar reversal will occur within the time span of anyone now alive on earth. The near and mid term effects of AGW are likely to be a lot more troublesome.
Been around 3 weeks without rain, plants are wilting, so hot and humid: went outside for like 2 minutes and was already sweating. If we can just get the forcing closer to the coast...
fairbanks alaska, mid may, great temps, no bugs, no tourists.... all is good.


What is up with this site? The sea ice area seems accurate when compared with other sources, but the snow cover is off by hundreds and hundreds of miles.
Quoting 82. swflurker:
You have mail.
I answered. You have to be careful to only start a reply after the last "blockquote" in a quote. If you don't, your reply is up in the quote. If I don't copy and past your reply into my quote, it comes out blank. Not your fault, the quote function in the new site is a mess. Just watch for the very last "blockquote" and start your reply there.
Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Maybe the question should be.......Will we have only Cat 5 Typhoons?




Well the Atlantic is overdue for a category 5 with the last being in 2007 - almost 8 years ago. There's usually one every 3-4 years on average. And I'm sure the Eastern Pacific will churn out a category 5 or two given the strengthening El Nino.
The cruise I will be going on will first dock in Miami.It'll be my first time down there to that city the on to the Bahamas.I'am looking forward to new adventures :).
Quoting 108. Envoirment:



Well the Atlantic is overdue for a category 5 with the last being in 2007 - almost 8 years ago. There's usually one every 3-4 years on average. And I'm sure the Eastern Pacific will churn out a category 5 or two given the strengthening El Nino.


I believe the record in the satellite era is 8 years, between Allen and Gilbert.
I can't believe the government would not tell us about a "pole" reversal and leave us up in the air like that.
112. vis0

Quoting 19. hydrus:


Howdy Naga. It may not have an impact on the climate per se, but if the poles reversed in a manner that left the Earth open to solar radiation or CME, there certainly could be serious problems..Remember, theory has it that this does not occur quickly, prolonging radiation exposure to almost all life.
BTW this i state is what has led to complex animal on a complex planet in the complex animal (humans for now) gaining its senses (all 7).

Again the mag field does not go away fully it becomes entangled and there are effects of that entanglement on animals and weather but lets worry on what we are not use to, CO2 building up rapidly (that's unnatural), humans are not only use to the mag field change we are indebted to that change for developing in us an animal with our own conscience and the ability to use it or not, where less & least complex creatures are connected more to the planets consciousness be it land or its atmospheres.

Some things will not be good as the mag field shifts but that takes thousands of yrs. to finalize so we assimilate to it.  i hope during the next radon age (in part due to the weakening NOT LOSING of our protective mag field from our closest star) that we develop a third hand so i never lose my remote control.

 if one read my craah-zeee blogbytes you'd notice i state what eventually became humans went through 6 ice and 6 radon ages.

The ice ages help map the complex brain (brain is mapped/rewirred internally more efficiently when its colder, as its a trick that has to do with the affects of temperature closer to ABS0 on "magnetic" light in short term applications but in long term applications (like "complex animal brain rewiring"...book # 666 in the TIME LIFE how to fix it series) as in mutating the brain, long ice ages are preferred as uhhhh ABS0 (even a fraction towards Abs0) would kill us.

(what today is called "light" / its spectrum and what i call the radon ages (now U know it has to do with full mag field fluxes) help add physical mutations which then match what the brain is then desiring due to its new ice age developed brain waves, which leads us to that biblical question, which came first the Chicken or Grothar?

All this is weird huh!?, remember, sound more important than light and after 6 ice & radon mutation its time to take a life long rest as the 7th day has no ending/evening.
PAY ATTENTION to sudden changes in weather also for those that know the next "2WkAnomaly" period is ...

,peace
In case you needed any more incentive not to remain in a mobile home during a tornado:



This is damage from an EF2 tornado in Missouri (last night, I think).
I think I prefer Long wave Trofs to short wave trofs.......short wave trofs are ok as long as they are coming through the mean long wave trof into my location. The last 2 storms here in Soo Cal were short wave trofs, circulating around the ULL further north. Each dropped in excess of 1" rain at my locale with 5-6 days separation between them. A weak short wave forecast for tomorrow should deepen the marine layer for possible drizzle/light rain for the coast and coastal slopes but nothing for me at my location here in the mountains. The ECMWF & GFS Forecasting a 558dm short wave this coming Friday and showing a little precip coming in......San Diego Lindbergh Field needs .20 inches of rain to set the all time record for wettest May(Since records started being kept in 1850) If some place in Soo Cal is going to have a weather record right about now, than Wettest May is a good one in our current state.
Quoting 113. TropicalAnalystwx13:

In case you needed any more incentive not to remain in a mobile home during a tornado:



This is damage from an EF2 tornado in Missouri (last night, I think).


Dayummmmmm, And I loves my triple-wide!
Three intoxicated canoers were rescued and then arrested on Lake Eufaula in OK lastnight after 11pm as severe weather swept thru.
Quoting 116. Skyepony:

Three intoxicated canoers were rescued and then arrested on Lake Eufaula in OK lastnight after 11pm as severe weather swept thru.


Sar? Were you out last night? Tell the truth! :) Oh, my bad...that was Oklahoma!
Quoting 110. CybrTeddy:



I believe the record in the satellite era is 8 years, between Allen and Gilbert.

There was a 15 year stretch between 1938's Long Island Express and 1953's Hurricane Carol.

EDIT: I need to read better--you said satellite era. :)
Quoting 89. PlazaRed:

Interesting difference in SSTs between the Eastern Pacific and the GOM!




Pacific has areas of warm anomalies all the way to Alaska.



very warm water temp here
Everyone, wear your life vest to work tomorrow ;>)

From the Key West NWS discussion Friday ....

TODAY IS WEAR YOUR LIFE JACKET TO WORK DAY...AN EVENT WHICH HELPS TO
KICK OF NATIONAL SAFE BOATING WEEK...MAY 16-22. REMEMBER TO BOAT
SAFELY AND RESPONSIBLY!
&&
Tornado Warning for Menominee and Shawano Counties in WI until 4:00 PM CDT
@NWSTwinCitiesStorm intensifying west of Hutchinson, nickel size hail likely

If the Highs and Lows set up in the right places, we might get a tropical system into California or more likely Arizona. I would like to see on hold together long enough over water for it still to be a Tropical Storm or Depression. Hell, I would even except a blob of tropical moisture, considering our current state of dryness!
Quoting 99. sar2401:

It doesn't mean anything in terms of your trip. "Wet phase" is not any hard and fixed thing with MJO and it certainly can't be extrapolated to the Virgin's in the short term. Climatology gives you your best window into what the weather will be. The most likely weather is fabulous with the chance of a short shower to cool things off in the afternoon. Enjoy your trip and take plenty of sunscreen. :-)


Thank you so much! I will certainly enjoy it rain or shine!
128. vis0

Quoting 29. Misanthroptimist:


No. CO2 is primarily responsible for the current warming. Hard as it is to believe most scientists are not idiots. The obvious seldom escapes their notice.
Agree::"...most scientists are not idiots."
While the following is not an across the board statement;
some make less money in the name of science, while other make more money representing big business/self interests and some might think thats idiotic to make less money , not i, my conscience doesn't let me..darn!

Disagree::
"The obvious seldom escapes their notice."
As much as i see that CO2 as in warming of a planet, is a top culprit in causing changes in weather WORLDWIDE, i've seen history teach me that many things  escape the scientific mind NOT cause they jump to conclusions or do not care but they might NOT have a certain tool to observe whats right in front of them AT THAT TIME,
EXAMPLES: Sun rotating around Earth till we had the tools to understand what was happening right in front of us or bacteria before we had microscopes ...oh yeah and some nuts invention that taps into a field of science not yet discovered though its right in front of their eye(s) (3rd eye) and that yet unknown area of science teaches the importance of sound as to all that is around us.

BEFORE  my words are used against the belief that artificially rising CO2 is not real or not a problem, we have the tools to read how CO2 is rising and understand how that leads to warming.  Whats in question is do we delay delay delay by trying to place something else in front of the public attention or take responsibilities for what WE DID as to just slow its progress in choking the opportunity for this planet to sustain life.

BTW how come i don't hear of crow being served up lately?

Quoting 86. yonzabam:



Probably that 'stuck' jet stream loop pattern that's been causing weather mayhem across the northern hemisphere for the past few years. Alaska is getting the 'upswing', while here in Scotland, we're getting the 'downswing', bringing cold air and gales for the past week.


We are kinda stuck in a trof position here on the West Coast of USA with the polar jet carving out big trofs all the way down to Baja California where it meets the sub tropical jet and pushes these cold short wave trof rain systems we have had the last 3 weeks into Arizona,New Mexico and Texas and all points further NE. I am kinda enjoying it though, nice temps(when it can be hot as hell in May here) and 3 rainstorms with over 3" of rain.
Quoting 111. Grothar:

I can't believe the government would not tell us about a "pole" reversal and leave us up in the air like that.


With us up in the air over it.......you KNOW what they are going to do with that pole!
SAR2401 I agree with you privately shhhh I don't want anyone to think I was a kook!!! lol
Here's that trof forecast over California for May 22.......hope it shows up and San Diego can set May rainfall record.

SAR2401 contact me on wnderground I will give you my cell via wunderground.com we will discuss parameters about MPR. Put our heads together for a professional bolg or a MPR movement
I still believe Igor was briefly a cat 5 with 160mph winds.
sar2401 check your inbox
Quoting 136. WeatherConvoy:

sar2401 check your inbox

Spring Storm Katrina hit last night.
Quoting 89. PlazaRed:

Interesting difference in SSTs between the Eastern Pacific and the GOM!




You know, I am just a technician, but when I look at those temperature differences, I can't help but remember that differences like that are what make engines work. It would seem that some way or another those differences will drive so very interesting weather across, or from Central America.
You guys there was a tornado 6 miles north of me. It was rated EF1.
Look what occurred on this Sunday afternoon in Southern Puerto Rico as It tried to go down but remained up.

144. beell
Meanwhile...on the back side of the storm center circulation that moved through the center of the US yesterday-everybody's favorite winter playground...even in May.

Current conditions at
Minot, Minot International Airport (KMOT)-North Dakota
Lat: 48.26°NLon: 101.28°WElev: 1716ft.

Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy
34°F
1°C
Humidity 89%
Wind Speed N 30 G 44 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1013.3 mb)
Dewpoint 31°F (-1°C)
Visibility 5.00 mi
Wind Chill 20°F (-7°C)
Last update 17 May 3:54 pm CDT
Some 2-4 Celsius warming off Baja California and Sooo Cal could make a difference for a tropical system to hold together longer and get into California. Just remember that those higher water temps will not go very deep. Warm water in late summer/early fall in San Diego would be 73-75 degrees and the temp drops off from there as you head away from the beach, like in the mid 60's. Many many almost hold together and California has had numerous rain events with leftover tropical moisture from storms but only 2 that I have heard about have made it intact. Boils down to basically water temps and steering winds.

Quoting 144. beell:

Meanwhile...on the back side of the storm center circulation that moved through the center of the US yesterday-everybody's favorite winter playground...even in May.

Current conditions at
Minot, Minot International Airport (KMOT)-North Dakota
Lat: 48.26°NLon: 101.28°WElev: 1716ft.

Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy
34°F
1°C
Humidity 89%
Wind Speed N 30 G 44 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1013.3 mb)
Dewpoint 31°F (-1°C)
Visibility 5.00 mi
Wind Chill 20°F (-7°C)
Last update 17 May 3:54 pm CDT


I believe that would be in the "kinda chilly" category for this time of year.
Someone has a fever:
Quoting 143. Tropicsweatherpr:

Look what occurred on this Sunday afternoon in Southern Puerto Rico as It tried to go down but remained up.


Not a drop of water for me yet :(
18Z NAM 4km going crazy for Oklahoma City. Click image to enlarge.

Quoting 147. pablosyn:

Someone has a fever:



There's only one cure....more cowbell.
From the NWS in Melbourne. ( I'll believe it when I see it! Been so dry here on the space coast. Only chance rain is this week then we go dry again. What happened to our wet rainy pattern that some people were talking about?

TUE-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MID
WEEK AND WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON TUE AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO
LATE WEEK.

THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...FRONT...AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...BECOMES MORE
DEFINITELY WEST-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD FOCUS MORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RIGHT AT
THAT POINT WHERE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET/INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT NOT PREVENT IT
ALTOGETHER. LATER SEABREEZE WILL BRING WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LOOKS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE PLACE THE PENINSULA BACK
IN PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK
OVERHEAD WITH SOME DRYING TRENDS INDICATED.
Quoting 103. sar2401:

(snip) Polar reversal takes hundreds, if not thousands of years, and the signs leading up to it are pretty well understood. The biggest issue will be protecting things we depend on for technology from CME's. (snip)
I think there is still considerable doubt as to the time span of a reversal. Though some people state what you said, I don't see citations to data that back up such longer time spans. Wikipedia's article says "A brief complete reversal, known as the Laschamp event, occurred only 41,000 years ago during the last glacial period. That reversal lasted only about 440 years with the actual change of polarity lasting around 250 years. During this change the strength of the magnetic field dropped to 5% of its present strength." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal ) If the change lasted 250 years the flips only lasted around 100 years each and I don't know what in the geological record permits such fine time detail. Until one occurs that we can measure, I think we're guessing as to the length of time for the reversal to occur.
Quoting 135. washingtonian115:

I still believe Igor was briefly a cat 5 with 160mph winds.


Well, unless there's a plane inside it the NHC is only issuing full advisories every six hours, three hours when closer to land (I think, landfalling storms here are usually updated for position in between every other hour of full advisories) so it is possible that it very briefly had winds in excess of 135 kt/hr. Regardless, Igor was a beaut.


Quoting 148. Gearsts:

Not a drop of water for me yet :(


My 600 gal Rain cistern had only 200 left.... But now its overflowing.... Thats the situation here in Caguas... And more water is on the way....

Quoting 117. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Sar? Were you out last night? Tell the truth! :) Oh, my bad...that was Oklahoma!
Kinda funny about two huge lakes in two different states have the same name. It apparently comes from the Eufaula tribe or people, now pretty much forgotten except for the name. The original Eufaula people settled along the Chattahoochee River, which is the river that Lake Eufaula AL was created from when it was dammed. The Eufaula people were part of the larger Creek nation, most of whom were deported to what was then Indian Territory by Andrew Jackson and the gang back about 1830. The Creeks and whatever survived of the Eufaula had the last laugh though, since they have two cities and two lakes with thier name, and their decendents own a boatload of casinos in Oklahoma.
Anomalies of SST in 2009:
May 18th 2009:


Kelvin Wave between February and April 2009:


2009 has 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes; 1 of them was the 2nd strongest hurricane on record (Rick) in Eastern Pacific.

2009 has 22 names storms (oficial by JMA), 15 typhoon (all storms that have more than 75 mph), 7 major typhoon; 4 of them was category 5 super typhoons.

2015:
Anomalies of SST in May 14th 2015:



Kelvin Wave between March and May 2015:



We already have 7 named storms, 5 typhoons, 4 major typhoons, icluding 4 category 5 super typhoons before May ends. Does anyone still doubt hyperactivity in both the Pacific basin? ;)
157. beell
Quoting 146. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I believe that would be in the "kinda chilly" category for this time of year.


I think most Minotians would agree-but not unheard of.

"Last freeze date" for that station over the last 15 years, ranges from April 23 to May 27th

weather.gov/climate NWS Bismark ND

Quoting 63. Patrap:

Remembering those who gave all,


Remembering those who took all:

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket. html
Quoting 154. sunlinepr:



My 600 gal Rain cistern had only 200 left.... But now its overflowing.... Thats the situation here in Caguas... And more water is on the way....




Near full cistern here sunlinepr - still dry in the FL Keys - caught a break with an isolated TS two days ago .... made out like a bandit !!
Quoting 156. pablosyn:

Anomalies of SST in 2009:
May 18th 2009:


Kelvin Wave between February and April 2009:


2009 has 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes; 1 of them was the 2nd strongest hurricane on record (Rick) in Eastern Pacific.

2009 has 22 names storms (oficial by JMA), 15 typhoon (all storms that have more than 75 mph), 7 major typhoon; 4 of them was category 5 super typhoons.

2015:
Anomalies of SST in May 14th 2015:



Kelvin Wave between March and May 2015:



We already have 7 named storms, 5 typhoons, 4 major typhoons, icluding 4 category 5 super typhoons before May ends. Does anyone still doubt hyperactivity in both the Pacific basin? ;)


I'm thinking NO is the answer but 2+2 to some is not 4....LOL
Hey BB... How goes it in MD?

Got the windows open and fans blowing air in. because it is hot here.
It was warm and sticky earlier, mid 80s, but a quick shower dropped the temp 10 degrees.
Not a cloud in the sky here so the sun is heating up the house... 75F inside and 66F outside in the shade...

Did you read that article by NASA about the Ross ice shelf... I think that antarctica is also going to all of a sudden see a rapid decline in ice coverage. One of the reasons I want to see the arctic circle in Alaska is so that I can see it covered in snow/ice before it all melts. (only half joking there)
The most severe damage the NWS office in Norman has found so far is worthy of an EF2 rating for the Elmer-Tipton tornado from last night. They tweeted that there's still a lot to look at, however, so this rating is preliminary.

I would not be surprised if the tornado only ends up being an EF2/EF3 damage; it tracked over a relatively rural area. Thankfully, RaxPol* was on the supercell, so we will have a true assessment of the tornado's strength over the coming days.

FWIW, RaxPol is an extremely high resolution, rapid-scanning mobile radar. This is the radar that recorded the 295 mph winds during the May 31, 2013 El Reno EF5. It'll be interesting to see what it observed with this one.
Quoting 157. beell:



I think most Minotians would agree-but not unheard of.

"Last freeze date" for that station over the last 15 years, ranges from April 23 to May 27th

weather.gov/climate NWS Bismark ND


The wind has swung around to the north here. My patio door is open because it is a little warm in the apartment, but we are expecting a bit of snow tonight here in Fargo. I doubt if it will stick even for a little bit,the ground is just too warm. The rain has been welcome, we were in a bit of a drought condition. The farmers that have the seed down are happy, the ones that don't are in a bind.

If this El Niño is like the one from 97, I am wondering if we will get massive snow here like they did in 97 then end up flooding next spring. The city is building a flood wall, but i don't think it will be complete before next spring.
Quoting 161. Dakster:

Hey BB... How goes it in MD?

Got the windows open and fans blowing air in. because it is hot here.

Hey, Dakster - was thinking of you in a hot house, w/ no A/C or window screens. How about adjustable window screens? They're relatively inexpensive, and if you do it right & use a fan or two, you could get a good cross breeze going without worrying (too much) about bugs and skeeters getting in.

Home Depot/Wal-Mart - depending on size, price range ~ $6-15

What is the red flag for?
Quoting 154. sunlinepr:



My 600 gal Rain cistern had only 200 left.... But now its overflowing.... Thats the situation here in Caguas... And more water is on the way....




Good evening

Looks like the south side of St. Thomas was on the receiving end of all that water that fell in the last 24 hours. My unofficial "Orange Bucket" is now standing at just under 10 inches. Considering that the rain fell with NO wind, I feel it is a pretty good measurement. My 30,000 gal. cistern is now overflowing (we were down to just under a foot of water and very worrisome). The north side of the island saw nothing but a few showers. Made for a miserable weekend for the tourists but we were dancing in the rain!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
169. txjac
Received between .5 and .75" here today in my area of town. The rains have been a blessing.

My pup (peanut) though doesn't like the thunder. For some reason he thinks that the refrigerator will protect him as that's where I can always find him, laying in front of the frig.
Quoting 131. HurricaneHunterJoe:



With us up in the air over it.......you KNOW what they are going to do with that pole!


Thanks, Joe.....*wiping up the keyboard*

How's life? Being good with the pea shooter this evening.....but then again, the spit balls.......
Hey guys just popping in letting you know first official tropical wave is upon us and is likely to be put on the Sfc charts at 00Z
I've just posted a blog entry with some comments of mine about yesterday's severe weather event; I think it turned out pretty well. It talks about some of the shortcomings of yesterday's severe weather forecast, and why, despite the Elmer tornado, yesterday could've turned out much worse.

Link
173. flsky
You do google gud.


Quoting 155. sar2401:

Kinda funny about two huge lakes in two different states have the same name. It apparently comes from the Eufaula tribe or people, now pretty much forgotten except for the name. The original Eufaula people settled along the Chattahoochee River, which is the river that Lake Eufaula AL was created from when it was dammed. The Eufaula people were part of the larger Creek nation, most of whom were deported to what was then Indian Territory by Andrew Jackson and the gang back about 1830. The Creeks and whatever survived of the Eufaula had the last laugh though, since they have two cities and two lakes with thier name, and their decendents own a boatload of casinos in Oklahoma.
Quoting 171. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys just popping in letting you know first official tropical wave is upon us and is likely to be put on the Sfc charts at 00Z


Well I hope it shows up

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE INDICATED ON 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 15W-23W.


Dolphin is now a category 4 typhoon (broderline to a category 3 downgrade) and is appearing less organized than this morning. Gradual weakening will continue to occur and it will be passing fairly close to the Iwo To Japaneese Islands.

Read more
Quoting 166. LAbonbon:


Hey, Dakster - was thinking of you in a hot house, w/ no A/C or window screens. How about adjustable window screens? They're relatively inexpensive, and if you do it right & use a fan or two, you could get a good cross breeze going without worrying (too much) about bugs and skeeters getting in.

Home Depot/Wal-Mart - depending on size, price range ~ $6-15




Good idea.. I will look into it. I have 3 box fans. I got them last year when they were on sale -- Last year we moved in, in August and the skeeters were not bad.

I just woke up from a nap. I was woken up by a Moose yowling at my window.... At first I couldn't figure out what it was, but it sure startled me. Wish I would have gotten a picture.
Quote 155.

"The Creeks and whatever survived of the Eufaula had the last laugh though, since they have two cities and two lakes with thier name, and their decendents own a boatload of casinos in Oklahoma."

I doubt anyone of that descent finds the trail of tears funny. I hope you don't really mean that.



What is going on blog D E A D dead
Quoting 178. wunderkidcayman:

What is going on blog D E A D dead
Besides Typhoon Dolphin, there is nothing really going on. But if something forms in the Atlantic, we will get something going in here.
WOW! Models showing a strong El-Nino sure seem to be picking up on lots of factors happening right now as the SOI is in a crash of a lifetime. Also they may have to adjust this graph down again as we are nearing the -20 mark already for the 30 day average.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #93
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
9:00 AM JST May 18 2015
==========================
290 KM East of Okinotori shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (935 hPa) located at 20.8N 138.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 23.5N 139.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southwest of Iwo Jima
48 HRS: 27.2N 143.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) east of Chichi-jima
72 HRS: 37.0N 154.4E - Extratropical Low in Sea East Of Japan
Quoting 178. wunderkidcayman:

What is going on blog D E A D dead


Hope we get some rain soon!
Quoting 168. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Good evening

Looks like the south side of St. Thomas was on the receiving end of all that water that fell in the last 24 hours. My unofficial "Orange Bucket" is now standing at just under 10 inches. Considering that the rain fell with NO wind, I feel it is a pretty good measurement. My 30,000 gal. cistern is now overflowing (we were down to just under a foot of water and very worrisome). The north side of the island saw nothing but a few showers. Made for a miserable weekend for the tourists but we were dancing in the rain!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy


Really? 10 inches of rain for you in St Thomas during the last 2 days?
Quote from 2014 article about how the Pacific Northwest (myself included) feels about El Nino...

Hey everyone, there's a good chance El Nino might be around for next winter!

California: "Yay! The expected heavy rains next winter should help our drought!"

Midwest and East Coast: "Yay! It likely means no more of this 'Polar Vortex' and weeks below freezing!"

Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard: "Yay! It typically means less hurricanes!"

Pacific Northwest: *sigh*


Even though El Nino wasn't officially declared until recently, Washington state has been feeling it all winter long. In fact, our Governor just declared a statewide Drought Emergency. The mountains are bare, and it's far too sunny for May. It's still supposed to be raining for another six weeks or so...

Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! Models showing a strong El-Nino sure seem to be picking up on lots of factors happening right now as the SOI is in a crash of a lifetime. Also they may have to adjust this graph down again as we are nearing the -20 mark already for the 30 day average.




Woah run for your life everyone the apocalypse is nearing LOLA

Yeah sure whatever
I don't think that will last long

Anyway it's not like its dropping fast
Remember between Feb to April last year that was one fast drop from 14 to -14 within what 3 months and if I can remember you were going nuts like how you are now

Though I have to say kudo to SOI for reaching -16

But as I said don't think its gonna last long
Quoting 183. stormpetrol:



Hope we get some rain soon!


By the looks of it we soon will
Our rainfall total for may is 9.8mm here in St Barth, and 1.8mm in French St Martin. So when I hear that St Thomas got 200 mm of rain this weekend, I'm very surprised! This came out of nowhere right? I haven't seen any convection over the USVI lol.. very very surprised to read that so much rain fell on that island!!!!
Quoting 185. Seattleite:

Quote from 2014 article about how the Pacific Northwest (myself included) feels about El Nino...

Hey everyone, there's a good chance El Nino might be around for next winter!

California: "Yay! The expected heavy rains next winter should help our drought!"

Midwest and East Coast: "Yay! It likely means no more of this 'Polar Vortex' and weeks below freezing!"

Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard: "Yay! It typically means less hurricanes!"

Pacific Northwest: *sigh*


Even though El Nino wasn't officially declared until recently, Washington state has been feeling it all winter long. In fact, our Governor just declared a statewide Drought Emergency. The mountains are bare, and it's far too sunny for May. It's still supposed to be raining for another six weeks or so...




I am worried for you all in the PAC-NW. and of course California still is nowhere near out of the woods.

FWIW, it isn't supposed to be these gorgeous sunny and cool days here either. Even though the house warms up, it is low 60s out and sunny. Of course it is sunny from 4am to midnight right now too... The birch all have green leaves on them and look neat against a blue sky with the sun shining on them.
Of course we also need 10 inches of rain to fix (at least temporarily) the drought issues...
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! Models showing a strong El-Nino sure seem to be picking up on lots of factors happening right now as the SOI is in a crash of a lifetime. Also they may have to adjust this graph down again as we are nearing the -20 mark already for the 30 day average.



Crash of a lifetime?

C'mon Scott...
Crash of a lifetime! Wow!!! I'm not sure what I should do?
Quoting 189. Dakster:



I am worried for you all in the PAC-NW. and of course California still is nowhere near out of the woods.

FWIW, it isn't supposed to be these gorgeous sunny and cool days here either. Even though the house warms up, it is low 60s out and sunny. Of course it is sunny from 4am to midnight right now too... The birch all have green leaves on them and look neat against a blue sky with the sun shining on them.


I love the color of the spring leaves against twilight! Ours isn't quite from 4am to midnight yet, it's from about 5am to 9:30pm. Odd question, in Seattle our July 4th fireworks don't often start until 10:30pm because it's too light outside to hold them earlier. What do you do in AK? (Or since you recently moved, have you heard about their July 4th traditions?)

I almost feel bad complaining about absolutely stunning 70F sunshine filled days. I've got all the windows open as well, enjoying the nice breeze. Lol, That's how awesome Seattle is, the only thing we have to complain about are our lack of an NBA/NHL team, a bad play call in a very unimportant game, and sunshine. (Oh, and snow in the lowlands when it happens. Steep hills + snow = fail)

So far Seattle and the other major metro areas will be fine with water for this year, as they have retained more rainwater throughout the winter as the snow drought became more apparent. However, Eastern Washington is not looking so good. Things will get progressively worse depending upon the strength, and length of the current El Nino.
I decided to go back and look at the radar for the Elmer-Tipton tornado in more detail since it was past peak intensity as I walked through the door. It looks like peak-to-peak shear maxed out at 233kt/268mph at an elevation of ~1100ft. That puts its rotational velocity at 116.5kt--just below Tuscaloosa's reading of ~124kt and well below 2013 El Reno's reading of 149kt.



For interest, I took the coordinates of the location the tornado peaked at (according to radar, anyways) and decided to input them into Google Earth to see what may have been affected while the tornado was at its strongest. It looks like a farmstead should have taken a direct hit by the tornado.

I remembered that Dick McGowan had tweeted a picture of at least a portion of a farmstead completely leveled, so I decided to do a little comparing between the photo and what Google Earth was showing.




Looks like a match to me! (look at the position of the sole tree in both images, as well as the power poles)

Damage surveying for the tornado should be complete tomorrow. News of what RaxPol recorded probably won't be in for a few days.
Quoting 193. Seattleite:



I love the color of the spring leaves against twilight! Ours isn't quite from 4am to midnight yet, it's from about 5am to 9:30pm. Odd question, in Seattle our July 4th fireworks don't often start until 10:30pm because it's too light outside to hold them earlier. What do you do in AK? (Or since you recently moved, have you heard about their July 4th traditions?)

I almost feel bad complaining about absolutely stunning 70F sunshine filled days. I've got all the windows open as well, enjoying the nice breeze. Lol, That's how awesome Seattle is, the only thing we have to complain about are our lack of an NBA/NHL team, a bad play call in a very unimportant game, and sunshine. (Oh, and snow in the lowlands when it happens. Steep hills + snow = fail)

So far Seattle and the other major metro areas will be fine with water for this year, as they have retained more rainwater throughout the winter as the snow drought became more apparent. However, Eastern Washington is not looking so good. Things will get progressively worse depending upon the strength, and length of the current El Nino.


We were back in Miami moving last year for the July 4 holiday last year - I was getting ready to drive my truck up here. However, they are usually done at midnight here.

http://www.anchorage.net/events/anchorage-4th-jul y-fireworks

Link

@NWSNorman 1m
Survey teams report EF2 damage with the Elmer-Odell-Tipton-Snyder tornado in SW Okla, and EF1 damage with Cleo Springs tornado in NW OK.
Quoting 196. Dakster:



We were back in Miami moving last year for the July 4 holiday last year - I was getting ready to drive my truck up here. However, they are usually done at midnight here.

http://www.anchorage.net/events/anchorage-4th-jul y-fireworks

Link


In 2003 I was in Fairbanks on July 4. I was told there would be no fireworks because the fire danger was too great. But then it never really got dark enough for a good fireworks display anyway.
Quoting 194. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I decided to go back and look at the radar for the Elmer-Tipton tornado in more detail since it was past peak intensity as I walked through the door. It looks like peak-to-peak shear maxed out at 233kt/268mph at an elevation of ~1100ft. That puts its rotational velocity at 116.5kt--just below Tuscaloosa's reading of ~124kt and well below 2013 El Reno's reading of 149kt.



For interest, I took the coordinates of the location the tornado peaked at (according to radar, anyways) and decided to input them into Google Earth to see what may have been affected while the tornado was at its strongest. It looks like a farmstead should have taken a direct hit by the tornado.

I remembered that Dick McGowan had tweeted a picture of at least a portion of a farmstead completely leveled, so I decided to do a little comparing between the photo and what Google Earth was showing.




Looks like a match to me! (look at the position of the sole tree in both images, as well as the power poles)

Damage surveying for the tornado should be complete tomorrow. News of what RaxPol recorded probably won't be in for a few days.
I saw that same tweet about possible farmstead damage while the tornado was happening yesterday. Looking at your Google Earth image, the looks of the tree there and the condition of the buildings, I'm wondering if there weren't already damage to that property. Possibly from the Nov. 7, 2011 EF4 in the same nieghborhood. I cannot conceptualize degree and minutes and seconds by reading the numbers, but these from 2011 seem fairly close to the Lat, Long on you GE image. What do you think?
Quoting 198. FLwolverine:

In 2003 I was in Fairbanks on July 4. I was told there would be no fireworks because the fire danger was too great. But then it never really got dark enough for a good fireworks display anyway.


It might be that way in Fairbanks again this year. I have already seen red flag fire danger warnings go out for central Alaska. 12% humidity, high winds, and it is very dry out. A bad fire season has been predicted - but those predictions are like May Hurricane predictions.

And yes, I doubt it will really get dark enough for a good firework display. It really doesn't get dark enough at midnight now, even in Anchorage and July 4th is closer to the equinox than we are now.

I'd rather be fishing anyways. And so would my kids.
Additional video of the Elmer-Tipton tornado as it transitions from a wedge into multiple vortices:

Quoting 199. Barefootontherocks:

I saw that same tweet about possible farmstead damage while the tornado was happening yesterday. Looking at your Google Earth image, the looks of the tree there and the condition of the buildings, I'm wondering if there weren't already damage to that property. Possibly from the Nov. 7, 2011 EF4 in the same nieghborhood. I cannot conceptualize degree and minutes and seconds by reading the numbers, but these from 2011 seem fairly close to the Lat, Long on you GE image. What do you think?

That's an interesting idea, and looking at the Google Earth image for a second time, it does appear the structures are incomplete. I'm not sure whether it's damage or whether the structures are being rebuilt.
One friend on G+, +Shaman Trucker, took a quick photo after dark last night while on the road in Texas I think. After converting it to a black and white image, he noticed something a bit odd.

Text copied from his post:

My codriver & I were talking about rotation between lightning flashes. Took screen shot during a flash, changed to black white. There's the funnel wanting to touch down right ahead of us. Anyone would have been crapping bricks at this point except we had the night time to help us think it was okay lol
Well you guys I'll be gone all week. I see you guys on Saturday for the start of my hurricane week.
Have fun HurricaneAndre.
Station over at Fallon NAS has the following totals since Thursday:

THursday: .10
Friday: .53
Saturday: .01
Sunday (today): so far .30

Numbers look to be heavier right here. On top of that we got our only irrigation for the year yesterday.

Looking like this week's going to peak out at or over an inch of rain.

Now I'm looking at maps and models, trying to figure out how the precip's going to go this week, and next.

All I can do (like anyone else) is make edumacated guesstimates.
207. vis0

Quoting 176. Dakster:



Good idea.. I will look into it. I have 3 box fans. I got them last year when they were on sale -- Last year we moved in, in August and the skeeters were not bad.

I just woke up from a nap. I was woken up by a Moose yowling at my window.... At first I couldn't figure out what it was, but it sure startled me. Wish I would have gotten a picture.
Here Dakster make yer own or patent it IF ITS NOT ALREADY SOMEONE ELSE'S IDEA check google pg on patents, image host

If you read my blogbytes (now deleted) or earlier comments of Dr. Masters blog earlier this year ya know how to add a tube with a bug zapper embedded so air is directed into the home via this tube and the circular sleeve light zapper in the tube zaps bugs which neatly fall into an opening so you can collect them or have pup wait by under the opening OUTSIDE the window to snack on the dead bugs.
If the idea does not exist and you create it due to this message all i ask is that you give a respectable amount of the profits to help children in need and do that giving in a nonsectarian manner.,peace
Interesting idea... But still want screened in windows. Also will keep the pollen out.


On May 12, 2015, a temperature of 80.1°F (or 26.7°C) was recorded in the north of Canada, at a location just north of latitude 63°N.

Below a forecast for May 23, 2015, showing temperatures in Alaska and neighboring parts of Canada that are 36°F (20°C) higher than they used to be (1979-2000 baseline).


Link

Methane blowouts coming to North America .
Quoting 209. ColoradoBob1:



On May 12, 2015, a temperature of 80.1°F (or 26.7°C) was recorded in the north of Canada, at a location just north of latitude 63°N.

Below a forecast for May 23, 2015, showing temperatures in Alaska and neighboring parts of Canada that are 36°F (20°C) higher than they used to be (1979-2000 baseline).


Link

Methane blowouts coming to North America .


I am ready to be amazed when the news in this link goes unnoticed! Probably I should not be, as so much important news goes unnoticed especially with show biz awards taking the limelight.
An air temp this high will causes a lot of ground warming, even though the sun angle is very low at these latitudes.
We will need a blog on this to get some varied opinions?
Picked up 2.09" last night. We got smashed with torrential rain, insane lightning, and high wind gusts. From Tuesday to Sunday, I picked up 5.79" at my home. Looks like it'll be the east coast's turn for the near future, as the high pressure area weakens today.
213. JRRP
Quoting 207. vis0:

"Breeze caused by amateur politician"


Although I admit I understood nearly nothing of what you were talking about mooses, flies, brick walls, and what-have-you's, that one bit almost made me spit out coffee. Nicely done.
‘Disaster after disaster’ hits Marshall Islands as climate change kicks in

This is part one of a three-part series examining the effects of climate change on the Marshall Islands and what is being done to adapt to the increasing threats it poses.

Link
texas drought over but it keeps coming down. cloudless sky here this morning in e cen fl.
😀the eternal optimist!
What makes you think we will get rain?
The high pressure in the Atlantic and ridging have extended to our area for almost two months
Until that high shifts or tilts it will remain dry in my opinion.
Sky conditions and the haze we constantly see are giving us clues

Quoting 187. wunderkidcayman:



By the looks of it we soon will
First EPAC storm brewing?



Not much there yet, but very warm SST's.





Quoting 212. tampabaymatt:

Picked up 2.09" last night. We got smashed with torrential rain, insane lightning, and high wind gusts. From Tuesday to Sunday, I picked up 5.79" at my home. Looks like it'll be the east coast's turn for the near future, as the high pressure area weakens today.


I don't ever remember being this locked into a summer pattern this early in May. I've had storms 5 of the past 6 days. All later afternoon driven by the sea breeze.
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't ever remember being this locked into a summer pattern this early in May. I've had storms 5 of the past 6 days. All later afternoon driven by the sea breeze.


It seems like whenever this pattern occurs in mid/late May, the storms are worse than typical summer storms. At my location, we had two storms since Tuesday that had insane amounts of lightning and rain. One dropped 3.11" and the one yesterday dropped 2.09". I'm not sure if the cooler atmosphere aloft leads to the storms being stronger than they would be in July or August, but these storms were nasty.
Quoting 220. tampabaymatt:



It seems like whenever this pattern occurs in mid/late May, the storms are worse than typical summer storms. At my location, we had two storms since Tuesday that had insane amounts of lightning and rain. One dropped 3.11" and the one yesterday dropped 2.09". I'm not sure if the cooler atmosphere aloft leads to the storms being stronger than they would be in July or August, but these storms were nasty.


I agree and I think it is the cooler atmosphere. We had hail I think on Tuesday and I know many areas have seen hail and getting pretty strong winds. At least our hail is small compared to our friends in tornado alley.
gulf waters are a bit warmer than usual already, perhaps this coming season more action coming from the gulf we'll see what happens...tampa bay water already 85
Quoting 209. ColoradoBob1:



On May 12, 2015, a temperature of 80.1F (or 26.7C) was recorded in the north of Canada, at a location just north of latitude 63N.

Below a forecast for May 23, 2015, showing temperatures in Alaska and neighboring parts of Canada that are 36F (20C) higher than they used to be (1979-2000 baseline).


Link

Methane blowouts coming to North America .

Good morning Bob..I am convinced now, that if I live a normal lifespan , will witness, things I thought I would NOT see 20 years ago.
have not seen in our lifetime? how about a massive c.v. following Ikes track but turning right up the spine of florida. that would shake it up
Everyone have wonderful day.This is the day the lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!
Quoting 222. LargoFl:




It is warm, a lot will depend on wind shear from the effects of El Niño.
March of the Penguins director to close Cannes with climate change film Ice and the Sky

The director has spoken of his trip to the continent to film the documentary Ice and the Sky about Claude Lorius – the man credited with discovering global warming – and how shocked he was to see the effects of climate change at first hand.

“We didn’t have rain in [many parts] of Antarctica until two or three years ago,” said Jacquet. Now the increase in temperatures means the environment and its inhabitants are experiencing rainfall “for the first time in history”.

“In a way, this is very terrible because the animals there are absolutely not adapted to the rain. The penguin chicks are dying because they are so wet that they get cold – they are dying this way.”


Link
Quoting 226. help4u:

Everyone have wonderful day.This is the day the lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!



and I would like to add to that something that is also in line with the Bible: and don't be a liar (not directed to anyone in particular).
Quoting 188. CaribBoy:

Our rainfall total for may is 9.8mm here in St Barth, and 1.8mm in French St Martin. So when I hear that St Thomas got 200 mm of rain this weekend, I'm very surprised! This came out of nowhere right? I haven't seen any convection over the USVI lol.. very very surprised to read that so much rain fell on that island!!!!

Trust me Cariboy it suprised us all here in St.thomas but we are greatfull for the Rain that fell..Hopefully we can get a storm to end this Drought
Good Morning Folks. Three days in to the E-Pac season. As noted by Grothar below, a longer term model possibly showing the first storm on the horizon. Nothing yet on the formation page but here is also the climatological area to watch this time of the year down there:


234. yoboi
2 feet of snow.......


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
MDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON MDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET...THE
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...PIKES PEAK...AND THE SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS AND MOSQUITO RANGE ABOVE 11000 FEET.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...A STRONG...MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ONE TO TWO FEET.
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...8 TO 16 INCHES.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACT...TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOW...POOR
VISIBILITIES AND ICY...SNOW COVERED ROADS. POWER DISRUPTIONS
AND TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR AS THE RESULT OF HEAVY...WET SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.

AVOID TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...LISTEN TO
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER
TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL
KIT. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN A RURAL AREA...STAY WITH YOUR
VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. TO KEEP WARM IN YOUR VEHICLE...RUN
YOUR ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR...AND MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE
IS CLEAR OF SNOW TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
35 years ago today..

229. ColoradoBob1
I have been looking for evidence of rainfall in Antarctica but I can only find precipitation being recorded as snow.
Are there any reliable records of rainfall in Antarctica?
You want to show respect for Veterans this week?
Go to your local VA Hospital, and thank them there.
Thats where they will be.
Reach out to one.

Semper Fi'
Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 12m12 minutes ago
Oct Nino 3.4 fcst from 8 models. Fcst. avg for Nino 3.4 is 2.4C. Record Oct Nino 3.4 since 1950 is 2.35 set in 1997



Off Topic. SST anomaly in Central Bahamas has decreased. It was +2C two weeks ago and I was
worried about the Mahi being displaced North early (season normally ends in June there). Fishing
was reported poor prior to our arrival for our annual three days of mid May fishing, but we did catch a decent amount, below our usual but enough to
be satisfying. Anomaly is now perhaps 0.5C above mean.
With this next WWB being much further east this week we should see Nino 3.4 reach 1.5C later next week going into June.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 1h 1 hour ago
A 4 standard-deviation-strength low-level westerly wind anomaly in C/Epac late week-- wow. #ElNino


May has been unusually warm in DC metro. Record to beat is the 1991 73.0F monthly mean, 7F above normal. This looks unlikely to be beat this May but we have a slim shot at it.
Quoting 161. Dakster:

Hey BB... How goes it in MD?

Got the windows open and fans blowing air in. because it is hot here.


Warm and humid in DC metro, not intensely hot like 1991,2004,2010,2011,2012 but almost unbroken warmth (and I was gone for the three day cooler break 5/13-15)
Quoting 241. georgevandenberghe:

May has been unusually warm in DC metro. Record to beat is the 1991 73.0F monthly mean, 7F above normal. This looks unlikely to be beat this May but we have a slim shot at it.



It's always warm at the airport.
suspicious area moving into the bahamas. if it were august. heard that before.
Quoting 242. georgevandenberghe:



Warm and humid in DC metro, not intensely hot like 1991,2010,2011,2012 but almost unbroken warmth (and I was gone for the three day cooler break 5/13-15)



Thanks George.

We got some sort of blast of cool air last night. The low was supposed to be 44F and it is 36F at the moment. I'd rather bust the forecast colder by 8F then warmer by 8F. I was wondering why it seemed a little chilly in the house earlier... (Remembering that it is only 7:30am right now here at the moment). Granted the the position of the sun makes it look like high noon.
Quoting 170. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Thanks, Joe.....*wiping up the keyboard*

How's life? Being good with the pea shooter this evening.....but then again, the spit balls.......


Hi Lindy! Doing ok.........I could not resist Gro's post........or I might just be of filthy mind.........My spitball capabilities are right on! Hope you are well!
Quoting 206. nonblanche:

Station over at Fallon NAS has the following totals since Thursday:

THursday: .10
Friday: .53
Saturday: .01
Sunday (today): so far .30

Numbers look to be heavier right here. On top of that we got our only irrigation for the year yesterday.

Looking like this week's going to peak out at or over an inch of rain.

Now I'm looking at maps and models, trying to figure out how the precip's going to go this week, and next.

All I can do (like anyone else) is make edumacated guesstimates.


Any rain in the west in May is WONDERFUL!
Quoting 236. PlazaRed:

229. ColoradoBob1
I have been looking for evidence of rainfall in Antarctica but I can only find precipitation being recorded as snow.
Are there any reliable records of rainfall in Antarctica?


I don't know about official records, but if you read about the Shackleton expedition, he mentions rain occurring while stranded on the northern side of the continent.
Quoting 210. PlazaRed:


I am ready to be amazed when the news in this link goes unnoticed! Probably I should not be, as so much important news goes unnoticed especially with show biz awards taking the limelight.
An air temp this high will causes a lot of ground warming, even though the sun angle is very low at these latitudes.
We will need a blog on this to get some varied opinions?


Have they figured out how to harvest and store and use the methane for the planets sake yet? Heard somewhere they were working on a solution for the frozen methane.
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:



It is warm, a lot will depend on wind shear from the effects of El Nio.


C'mon El Nino! I want a super strong one and one that peaks in the DJF/JFM time frame....say 2.5c-3.0c anomalies in all regions.......Is that asking too much? A very strong El Nino has no guarantees for enhanced rainfall in Cali but a decent enough chance and no it WILL NOT solve/end the drought but will put a good dent into it especially if we get snow early and then warm rains to melt the early season snows, that melt would go right into the reservoirs and then have late season snows that would melt normally during late spring and summer....I know......Not asking for much.
Quoting 176. Dakster:



Good idea.. I will look into it. I have 3 box fans. I got them last year when they were on sale -- Last year we moved in, in August and the skeeters were not bad.

I just woke up from a nap. I was woken up by a Moose yowling at my window.... At first I couldn't figure out what it was, but it sure startled me. Wish I would have gotten a picture.




What's a moose? Chocolate?
Quoting 211. tampabaymatt:




Hope Texas get's all her lakes and aquifers filled up!
Quoting 218. Grothar:

First EPAC storm brewing?



Not much there yet, but very warm SST's.








I think it's warmer just about everywhere except here, which is expected during an El Nino and it is still plenty warm ther(normal)

anyone remember Wilma? the only storm I boarded up the house for......................
Quoting 230. hydrus:




More troffiness in the west : ) Cooler and wetter than normal! May can be very warm in Soo Cal..........I like seeing the hot months go bye bye.
Quoting 235. hydrus:

35 years ago today..




Mt St Helens?
Quoting 252. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope Texas get's all her lakes and aquifirs filles up!



Send that rain this way we badly need it
My Fav Image of the Eruption

Quoting 254. LargoFl:

anyone remember Wilma? the only storm I boarded up the house for......................


A wise choice master!
Quoting 258. Patrap:

My Fav Image of the Eruption


Impressive..I remember Dan Rather reporting before, during, and after, the eruption. Also remember " the Bulge " that kept growing on the side of the volcano.
262. yoboi
Quoting 254. LargoFl:

anyone remember Wilma? the only storm I boarded up the house for......................


Last major to hit.......
Quoting 257. Tazmanian:




Send that rain this way we badly need it


I put your request in Taz. I hope it gets filled quickly.
Quoting 263. Dakster:



I put your request in Taz. I hope it gets filled quickly.


We don't need the flooding this nic hey rain ever other day or so
Global warming fueling fewer but stronger hurricanes, study says

Warmer ocean temperatures appear to be fueling more intense hurricanes at the expense of the overall number of storms, says a new study published today in Nature Climate Change.

Link
Quoting 250. HurricaneHunterJoe:



C'mon El Nino! I want a super strong one and one that peaks in the DJF/JFM time frame....say 2.5c-3.0c +anomalies in all regions.......Is that asking too much? Avery wet El Nino has no guarantees for enhanced rainfall in Cali but a decent enough chance and no it WILL NOT solve/end the drought but will put a good dent into it especially if we get snow early and then warm rains to melt the early season snows, that melt would go right into the reservoirs and then have late season snows that would melt normally during late spring and summer....I know......Not asking for much.


It appears the peak is going to be NDJ.
Quoting 248. pipelines:



I don't know about official records, but if you read about the Shackleton expedition, he mentions rain occurring while stranded on the northern side of the continent.


Remember also that "Antarctica" includes lots of peninsulas and islands and things that go further north than the mainland. They can get rainy conditions especially during summer. I looked at the WU reports for Antarctica for today -- near the start of winter -- and there was at least one station reporting 32 F and mist.
Quoting 256. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Mt St Helens?


I'll never forget it, we were nearing the end of the semester in Air Pollution Meteorology and the Finals consisted of one question, "Discuss, in detail, the meteorological and air pollution impacts of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens."
Quoting 252. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope Texas get's all her lakes and aquifers filled up!


12 of the last 14 days in the Austin area have had decent precip. One of our local mets showed Portland, OR at 14 inches of rain YTD, Seattle 16" YTD and Austin at 19" YTD. That was pretty awesome. In that graphic you posted it shows a 6.8" projection around the Red River, near the Panhandle. That is the one remaining part of the state that is considered under significant drought according to the hydro guys. I can't wait to see this Thursdays Drought Monitor report. Since the ground is fairly saturated through most of Centex, any additional precip near the lakes will runoff into them and that is a good thing.

EDIT: I just checked the 30 day change to Lake Travis and it is up 4.05 feet. Even with all of this rain that is just a ten percent of deficit increase. But hey we will take what we can get :)
Quoting 268. Tazmanian:




Yawn. Old news
The article was published today, so it's not exactly "old news". Know what I mean?

Excellent article, Bob. And just the kind of research that any real student of tropical weather will study and appreciate...

Quoting 267. MaineGuy:



Remember also that "Antarctica" includes lots of peninsulas and islands and things that go further north than the mainland. They can get rainy conditions especially during summer. I looked at the WU reports for Antarctica for today -- near the start of winter -- and there was at least one station reporting 32 F and mist.



63.5 F in Antarctica, this March. A new record high.

Link
274. yoboi
Quoting 265. ColoradoBob1:

Global warming fueling fewer but stronger hurricanes, study says

Warmer ocean temperatures appear to be fueling more intense hurricanes at the expense of the overall number of storms, says a new study published today in Nature Climate Change.

Link


Scientist have trouble with pre season predictions a month out.....Then when one does form have more trouble predicting intensity......But they have it figured out with AGW & hurricanes....OK
Quoting 274. yoboi:



Scientist have trouble with pre season predictions a month out.....Then when one does form have more trouble predicting intensity......But they have it figured out with AGW & hurricanes....OK


The article states that this result is not a prediction, but is based on observations. However, the article states that this result might improve seasonal forecasts.
Japan might be in store for some typhoons not weakening as much as they usually do upon re curvature

.

280. yoboi
Quoting 278. DCSwithunderscores:



The article states that this result is not a prediction, but is based on observations. However, the article states that this result might improve seasonal forecasts.


And the article also states....

"But in practice, the connection between hurricanes and climate change has been a hard nut to crack because of an equally simple caveat — we just don’t have enough years of good historical data to predict how hurricanes intensity or frequency might change in our warming future."

Maybe one day they will figure it out....And if they do what can we really do about it???
So much yellow! Just about the whole Indian Ocean! Pacific Ocean from Peru to Alaska/Russia

As we get closer to the start of the hurricane season I like to start looking at shear. Right now around Fl it is running 20-30 mph and up to 40 in the western GOM. It is just screaming across the Caribbean and the MDR. I'll be looking for trends of it lowering, specifically in the NW Caribbean.

Go Bolts!
Quoting 280. yoboi:



And the article also states....

"But in practice, the connection between hurricanes and climate change has been a hard nut to crack because of an equally simple caveat %u2014 we just don%u2019t have enough years of good historical data to predict how hurricanes intensity or frequency might change in our warming future."

Maybe one day they will figure it out....And if they do what can we really do about it???


The article states that that has been a problem with other studies, and that this study was able to circumvent that problem. In any event, your reply does not change the fact that (as I stated) this is not a prediction, but is based on observations.
REANALYSIS OF 1951 TO 1955 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS COMPLETED

Excerpt:

Nine hurricanes were identified to have struck the continental United States during 1951
to 1955, with one new U.S. hurricane (Hazel in 1953) identified and two hurricanes no
longer considered to have had hurricane impacts in the United States (Carol in 1953
and Diane in 1955). Originally, five of these hurricanes were considered to be a major
hurricane – Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – at U.S.
landfall. After the reanalysis, only two were retained as major U.S. hurricanes: 1954's
Carol which struck New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island as a Category 3 and
1954's Hazel which struck South Carolina and North Carolina as a Category 4. Three
other systems were downgraded to a Category 2 at U.S. landfall: 1954's Edna in
Massachusetts, 1955's Connie in North Carolina, and 1955's Ione in North Carolina.
Quoting 280. yoboi:



And the article also states....

"But in practice, the connection between hurricanes and climate change has been a hard nut to crack because of an equally simple caveat — we just don’t have enough years of good historical data to predict how hurricanes intensity or frequency might change in our warming future."

Maybe one day they will figure it out....And if they do what can we really do about it???
If you insist on waiting until then, not much. However, if we were to act now and vigorously we might prevent, or at the least reduce, the impact on ourselves and our descendants (or maybe you don't care about them?).
286. yoboi
Quoting 285. CaneFreeCR:

If you insist on waiting until then, not much. However, if we were to act now and vigorously we might prevent, or at the least reduce, the impact on ourselves and our descendants (or maybe you don't care about them?).


What is the plan to reduce Global CO2 emissions??? I have noticed that the U.S. has agreed to cut burning coal and for the next 30 yrs agreed to ship it to China so they can burn it....Just think about ALL the CO2 that will be emitted with the shipping to China....It's time to get new people in charge bad decisions are being made daily....
Quoting 286. yoboi:



What is the plan to reduce Global CO2 emissions??? I have noticed that the U.S. has agreed to cut burning coal and for the next 30 yrs agreed to ship it to China so they can burn it....Just think about ALL the CO2 that will be emitted with the shipping to China....It's time to get new people in charge bad decisions are being made daily....


For what it's worth, China's carbon dioxide emissions during the first 4 months of this year were down by 5% compared to the first 4 months of last year, because of an 8% reduction in coal use there.
Quoting 273. yonzabam:




63.5 F in Antarctica, this March. A new record high.

Link
im curious, does any country lay claim to Antarctica in whole? or is it a no mans land claim wise.
Quoting 289. LargoFl:

im curious, does any country lay claim to Antarctica in whole? or is it a no mans land claim wise.


There is a treaty in place that prevents any country participating in the treaty to lay claim to Antartica.
Quoting 289. LargoFl:

im curious, does any country lay claim to Antarctica in whole? or is it a no mans land claim wise.

Read this: Antarctic_Treaty_System
Quoting 289. LargoFl:

im curious, does any country lay claim to Antarctica in whole? or is it a no mans land claim wise.


The UK, New Zealand, France, Norway, Australia, Argentina and Chile all have territories on Antarctica, some of which are shared. I don't know what the legal status is, but I'm pretty sure that they can't claim 'ownership'. However, some adjacent islands are recognised as British territories, which are owned, such as South Georgia.

Surprisingly, there's a very sizeable chunk that isn't claimed by anyone, called 'Marie Byrd Land'. Here's a Wiki extract about it:

Because of its remoteness, even by Antarctic standards, most of Marie Byrd Land (the portion east of 150W) has not been claimed by any sovereign nation. It is by far the largest single unclaimed territory on Earth, with an area of 1,610,000 km2 (620,000 sq mi) (including Eights Coast, immediately east of Marie Byrd Land). In 1939, United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt instructed members of the United States Antarctic Service Expedition to take steps to claim some of Antarctica as United States territory. Although this appears to have been done by members of this and subsequent expeditions, these do not appear to have been formalized prior to 1959, when the Antarctic Treaty System was set up. Some publications in the United States have shown this as a United States territory in the intervening period, and the United States Defense Department has stated that United States has a solid basis for a claim in Antarctica resulting from its activities prior to 1959.
Quoting 220. tampabaymatt:



It seems like whenever this pattern occurs in mid/late May, the storms are worse than typical summer storms. At my location, we had two storms since Tuesday that had insane amounts of lightning and rain. One dropped 3.11" and the one yesterday dropped 2.09". I'm not sure if the cooler atmosphere aloft leads to the storms being stronger than they would be in July or August, but these storms were nasty.


Well as far as the hail threat yes, early season definitely is responsible due to cooler air aloft, although lately it's been due to unusually high surface CAPE, unusually high dew points, unusually moist air, unusually warm temps, and some other unusual factors that are closer to what's seen typical well into the rainy season.

The reason why is that it's not so much the values available that lead to active weather events, but what is the anomaly. I'm not really sure why that is, but it's fact of meteorology. For example, an atmospheric environment that is just average for us or drier in the summer will produce few thunderstorms, but will lead to likely numerous thunderstorms and flooding in the northern U.S. where the moisture levels which are low for us would be anomalously high for their climatology.

That also holds true for seasonal deviations from climatology. If these conditions occurred in July and August and September, it would lead to near to below average thunderstorms because compared to climatology, it would be near below average conditions from sea breeze thunderstorms, but for this time of year, its rather anomalous, so the atmosphere responds with more intense convection than you would expect. It's also worth mentioning that strong to severe thunderstorm impacts are highly localized which I'm sure you're aware of, so it's likely just by pure chance that you've gotten in some of the more significant cores of thunderstorms this week. Whereas maybe other events in the past for example, the strongest cores consistently missed you.

The climatology though for the most prolific lightning producers, the heaviest rain and severe thunderstorms in general along sea breeze fronts in the Tampa Bay area is July and August due to on average the peak of instability and moisture during a given year.
I know around here, I've seen some years where consistently through the whole summer, all we get is the weaker parts of thunderstorms and get very little strong thunderstorm impacts. Other years we'll get pounded with strong thunderstorms impacts and drenching rains to the point where it's honestly a bit scary.

It's the nature of sea breeze thunderstorms. As a whole though, the rainy season has seemed to have gotten a bit longer and more enhanced in recent years in Central Florida. I don't know if that's true for sure. But most rain gauges in the area for the summer have been at or above normal over the last 4 to 5 years, with some gauges significantly above normal over this period.

For example, at my parents house where I live over the summer, the yearly rain total in the gauge has been above 60 inches the last 4 years in a row with 1 year over 7 and 2 of them over 65, and the last year it was below normal was 2008. I'm comparing it to the closest rain gauge in Pinellas to here which averages 54 inches. Generally rainfall in Pinellas County runs in the 53-58 inch rain per year depending on location.

I've noticed tropical overgrowth is thicker here than it used to be, and mosquitoes and bugs in general have been more numerous in recent years too.

BTW the CPC is calling for above average rain throughout the rain season in mos if not all of Florida.

Will be interesting if that plays out, and I hope so. I love the sea breeze thunderstorm season here, and I love when the summer is rainy, since we still get plenty of sun anyway for outdoor activity since like 80% of the rain is quick downpours.
Quoting 288. DCSwithunderscores:



For what it's worth, China's carbon dioxide emissions during the first 4 months of this year were down by 5% compared to the first 4 months of last year, because of an 8% reduction in coal use there.


He's just making stuff up and throwing it against the wall.

Note:

China's coal imports decline by 42% during 1st quarter

By DU JUAN (China Daily)
Updated: 2015-04-14 09:17

The nation's coal imports declined by 41.5 percent to 49.07 million metric tons during the first three months of the year compared with the same period in 2014, as downstream demand weakened further, customs data said on Monday.
Quoting 296. yoboi:


...and that despite Arctic sea ice being the lowest ever measured for this date:

North Pole


South Pole


Now put on your thinking cap (if you can find it) and tell us to what you'd ascribe such concurrent extremes. (Let me know when you need a hint.)
China continues to lead the world in many strategic areas and they are really pushing solar (article-link below) and trying to reduce coal dependence. An utter shame that the US has lost this edge and leaders on both sides of the isle (democrats and republicans) over the past 30 years should be ashamed of themselves. Then again, in a hybrid capitalistic-totalitarian system, the Chinese leadership does not have to worry about a bickering Congress; they just make a decision (the very educated top leadership) and go for it.............................................

Posted on Sun, 24 August 2014 00:00 | 2

China is the world’s top energy consumer, with the vast majority of its electricity coming from domestically-mined coal. But the Asian nation is cutting its dependence on coal, oil and natural gas and replacing it with solar at a breakneck pace.

Between January and the end of June, China added 3.3 gigawatts of solar capacity, double the additions over the same period last year, and equivalent to the entire solar capacity of Australia – one of the sunniest places on earth. That brings China’s total solar power supply up to 23 gigawatts, second only to Germany’s 36 GW, and just 13 GW shy of the country’s goal of having 35 GW of solar installed by 2015.

The main reason, of course, is environmental. Choking clouds of pollution from vehicles and fossil-fueled power plants are the norm for residents of many Chinese cities, and the situation is only getting worse. Earlier this month, the Chinese government announced that it would ban the use of coal in Beijing by the end of 2020--although coal power use outside the capital is expected to continue.

http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Ener gy/Why-China-Is-Leading-The-World-In-Solar-Power.h tml

Quoting 292. Patrap:




Send some of that rain to the coast in NW Florida, we've been without rain for weeks! Everything lately has been going North of us.
Quoting 223. LargoFl:

gulf waters are a bit warmer than usual already, perhaps this coming season more action coming from the gulf we'll see what happens...tampa bay water already 85
Went body surfing yesterday (NW FL: Santa Rosa Beach) and the water was perfect.. wish it would stay in the upper 70's and actually be refreshing on those hot summer days!
(This is only a representative shot of yesterday as I did not take my camera with me...)
There seems to be a tremendous dichotomy between the North Pole and the South Pole. Both poles are breaking records only thing in opposite extremes. The North pole has record low extent of sea ice and the South Pole has a record abundance of sea ice. Perhaps the south pole record ice has initiated the cold or negative phase of the AMO or Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Just a hypothesis that's all. I have NEVER seen anything like this. Reminds me of the movie day after tomorrow. Also maybe the warming Arctic initiated a Strong El Nino this year, just a hypothesis, and open for interpretation or rebuttal that is fine. I just put my thinking cap on and throwing ideas out there. BTW is sure does look like the intiation of the positive or warm phase of the PDO
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
237 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FLZ003-005-006-182030-
INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-INLAND OKALOOSA FL-
237 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SANTA
ROSA AND NORTHWESTERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BAKER...OR 11 MILES WEST OF CRESTVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAKER... HOLT... KELLYS MILL...
NUBBIN RIDGE... PEADEN... CANNON TOWN...
BEAVER CREEK... BLACKMAN... CLEAR SPRINGS...
GALLIVER... SANTA MARIA... MILLIGAN...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.

LAT...LON 3064 8667 3065 8679 3071 8679 3071 8685
3096 8687 3093 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 195DEG 12KT 3072 8676

$$
Quoting 293. yonzabam:



The UK, New Zealand, France, Norway, Australia, Argentina and Chile all have territories on Antarctica, some of which are shared. I don't know what the legal status is, but I'm pretty sure that they can't claim 'ownership'. However, some adjacent islands are recognised as British territories, which are owned, such as South Georgia.

Surprisingly, there's a very sizeable chunk that isn't claimed by anyone, called 'Marie Byrd Land'. Here's a Wiki extract about it:

Because of its remoteness, even by Antarctic standards, most of Marie Byrd Land (the portion east of 150�W) has not been claimed by any sovereign nation. It is by far the largest single unclaimed territory on Earth, with an area of 1,610,000 km2 (620,000 sq mi) (including Eights Coast, immediately east of Marie Byrd Land). In 1939, United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt instructed members of the United States Antarctic Service Expedition to take steps to claim some of Antarctica as United States territory. Although this appears to have been done by members of this and subsequent expeditions, these do not appear to have been formalized prior to 1959, when the Antarctic Treaty System was set up. Some publications in the United States have shown this as a United States territory in the intervening period, and the United States Defense Department has stated that United States has a solid basis for a claim in Antarctica resulting from its activities prior to 1959.
many thanks for this
Quoting 302. yoboi:



I was showing the GLOBAL extent.....It would seem that when you concentrate with a particular region either cherry picking is occurring or trying to obscure the global impact....No??

No, the Arctic and Antarctic are very different places with very different mechanisms governing the sea ice. You have been informed of this on numerous occasions.
so if GW continues and all the ice is gone from Antarctica,im sure some country will want to populate it and just think for a moment...the wars over mineral and mining rights...oh boy..all the ice gone means a whole lot more then just sea level rise...think of population movements from area's that will be under water etc....WW3 at some later date perhaps? who knows,but I sure feel sorry for the generations to come..a world so different than what we today..consider normal
Quoting 302. yoboi:



I was showing the GLOBAL extent.....It would seem that when you concentrate with a particular region either cherry picking is occurring or trying to obscure the global impact....No??
Did you misread my comment? (I used really short words and everything.) Or simply not read it at all? I mean, you appear to have missed both my re-posting of the global graph, and my posting of the Antarctic sea ice graph. So let me try again with out the images to distract you:

Arctic sea ice is at record low levels.

Antarctic sea ice is at record high levels.

These are, obviously, extreme* readings.

So my question (again): to what do you ascribe these concurrent extremes?

*ex-treme: (ecks-TREEM) adjective (prenominal) 1 : Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest; either of the two limits or ends of a scale or range of possibilities.


Nice heavy t-storm just passing through Downtown Tallahassee; a run of the mill pop-up shower but we just saw a nice micro-burst with a gust of about 35 mph shake the trees.............................. Kewl.
310. yoboi
Quoting 307. Neapolitan:

Did you misread my comment? (I used really short words and everything.) Or simply not read it at all? I mean, you appear to have missed both my re-posting of the global graph, and my posting of the Antarctic sea ice graph. So let me try again with out the images to distract you:

Arctic sea ice is at record low levels.

Antarctic sea ice is at record high levels.

These are, obviously, extreme* readings.

So my question (again): to what do you ascribe these concurrent extremes?






Increased westerly winds around the Southern Ocean???


Tampa Bay area
Close, but still not there.
Quoting 306. LargoFl:

so if GW continues and all the ice is gone from Antarctica,im sure some country will want to populate it and just think for a moment...the wars over mineral and mining rights...oh boy..all the ice gone means a whole lot more then just sea level rise...think of population movements from area's that will be under water etc....WW3 at some later date perhaps? who knows,but I sure feel sorry for the generations to come..a world so different than what we today..consider normal

That's not going to be a problem any time soon.
Quoting 306. LargoFl:

so if GW continues and all the ice is gone from Antarctica,im sure some country will want to populate it and just think for a moment...the wars over mineral and mining rights...oh boy..all the ice gone means a whole lot more then just sea level rise...think of population movements from area's that will be under water etc....WW3 at some later date perhaps? who knows,but I sure feel sorry for the generations to come..a world so different than what we today..consider normal
If "all the ice is gone from Antarctica" (not expected to happen under *any* GW scenario, by the way), global seas would rise roughly 220 feet or so. This would wipe out nearly every one of the world's major cities (New York, Miami, Washington, Boston, Houston, LA, San Francisco; London, Dublin, Copenhagen, Venice, Stockholm, Rome, Barcelona, Lisbon, Amsterdam, Brussels; Mumbai, Kolkata, Dubai, Baghdad, Istanbul, Dhaka; Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, Seoul, Tokyo, Manila, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur; etc.). Billions would be displaced. Hundreds of trillions of dollars of infrastructure would be underwater. Governments and national borders would cease to exist. Our civilization would collapse.

I don't think anyone would be too awfully worried about mineral and mining rights by that point...
Quoting 309. yoboi:



I know they are different places....I was showing GLOBAL ice extent.....Overall "globally" Ice is near record high levels since 1979....

Then you know that the Antarctic sea ice is of little consequence at this point. It's nearing winter there, so there ain't a lot of sunlight for that ice to reflect.
Quoting 310. yoboi:



Increased westerly winds around the Southern Ocean???


Here you go, yoboi. A great discussion about Antarctic sea ice (including westerlies).

Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes
Quoting 316. Neapolitan:

If "all the ice is gone from Antarctica" (not expected to happen under *any* GW scenario, by the way), global seas would rise roughly 220 feet or so. This would wipe out nearly every one of the world's major cities (New York, Miami, Washington, Boston, Houston, LA, San Francisco; London, Dublin, Copenhagen, Venice, Stockholm, Rome, Barcelona, Lisbon, Amsterdam, Brussels; Mumbai, Kolkata, Dubai, Baghdad, Istanbul, Dhaka; Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, Seoul, Tokyo, Manila, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur; etc.). Billions would be displaced. Hundreds of trillions of dollars of infrastructure would be underwater. Governments and national borders would cease to exist. Our civilization would collapse.

I don't think anyone would be too awfully worried about mineral and mining rights by that point...
yes indeed..massive population movements for sure
is this possible guys?....the Greenland ice sheet is melting and releasing too much fresh water into the oceans..and could.....the warm gulf stream...slow down or even cease?...............this site sort of explains what would happen IF........................Link
Several flash flood warnings issued in Louisiana. Some of them indicate upwards of 7 to 8 inches have fallen in some areas since last night. Still coming down in portions of LA & MS.

GOES-14 in SRSO-R Scanning

Excerpts:

GOES-14 is producing imagery at 1-minute intervals as part of Super-Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSO-R). Sectors that are scanned change each day and are determined by likely weather events. The animation above, in the southwest corner of the Monday May 18 sector shows strong convection over northern Louisiana. (A similar animation in mp4 format is available here) A benefit of 1-minute imagery is that it can capture the entire lifecycle of overshooting tops, cloud-top features that typically form and decay in less than 10 minutes.
GOES-R is scheduled to launch in March 2016. It will have the capability to provide routine 1-minute imagery over mesoscale-sized domains such as those sampled in the next three weeks by GOES-14.




This GOES-R algorithm testing is from May 18- June 12, and August 10-22.

Link for daily Center Point (coverage)
323. yoboi
Quoting 317. Misanthroptimist:


Then you know that the Antarctic sea ice is of little consequence at this point. It's nearing winter there, so there ain't a lot of sunlight for that ice to reflect.


That would be cherry picking if I only used Antarctic data....Observational Globally.....increasing daily for now...
Quoting 306. LargoFl:

so if GW continues and all the ice is gone from Antarctica,im sure some country will want to populate it and just think for a moment...the wars over mineral and mining rights...oh boy..all the ice gone means a whole lot more then just sea level rise...think of population movements from area's that will be under water etc....WW3 at some later date perhaps? who knows,but I sure feel sorry for the generations to come..a world so different than what we today..consider normal
I believe Antarctica, like Greenland, is basically a shallow bowl full of ice, much of which is below sea level now. If all that ice were to melt they would be about 260 feet or more further below sea level, and access to that territory would be difficult for mineral exploitation and impossible for colonization. Not to mention darn chilly even after global warming.
Quoting 320. LargoFl:

is this possible guys?....the Greenland ice sheet is melting and releasing too much fresh water into the oceans..and could.....the warm gulf stream...slow down or even cease?...............this site sort of explains what would happen IF........................Link

I wouldn't get my science information from truthout. There are many papers on this topic. Here is a google search for just those since the beginning of 2014.
326. yoboi
Quoting 321. LAbonbon:

Several flash flood warnings issued in Louisiana. Some of them indicate upwards of 7 to 8 inches have fallen in some areas since last night. Still coming down in portions of LA & MS.




1.3 inches here today and some small hail....6 times this spring that had hail....strange weather this year...Never recall having so much hail before..
any severe weather today??
aturday's Reports:

A tornado struck Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, around 11:30 p.m. CDT Saturday. There are reports of structural damage and power outages in the area. The storm also damaged homes near Inola, Oklahoma, and that damage may also have been from a tornado.
The same circulation that affected Broken Arrow later produced a reported tornado near Fairland in Ottawa County, Oklahoma, damaging homes. There are early reports of damage from the same storm just to the east in Newton County, Missouri.
Earlier, a large tornado was reported in southwest Oklahoma around 6 p.m. CDT on Saturday. It tracked from south of Elmer to near Tipton to north of Manitou; it briefly crossed a bend in the Red River into extreme northern Texas along its path. Sporadic damage was reported along its path, though the twister did not hit any towns directly.
Police in Lyon County, Kansas, report storm damage across the county, including a stopped train that was blown over. Homes and barns were also damaged by the suspected tornado. The National Weather Service in Topeka plans to survey the damage Sunday.
Elsewhere in Oklahoma, tornadoes were reported 9 miles south of Anadarko; near Meers; and near Elk City along Interstate 80.
A multi-vortex tornado was reported 3 miles west-southwest of Murdock in west-central Minnesota at 5:51 p.m. CDT. Another brief tornado was reported northwest of Murdock Saturday afternoon.
A brief tornado touchdown was reported near Rosen, Minnesota, around 4:25 p.m. CDT. Ten minutes later, a tornado hit a farmstead north of Montevideo in Chippewa County, taking part of the roof off a building. Both locations are in west-central Minnesota.
A tornado was reported in the Texas Panhandle just after 2:30 p.m. CDT. Reports say it crossed U.S. Highway 287 near Lelia Lake, according to storm chasers in the area. Earlier, the day's first tornado report came in about 10 miles north of Silverton, Texas, at 1:12 p.m. CDT.
Law enforcement reported a tornado near Highway 14/16/20 in eastern Park County of northwest Wyoming around 1:30 p.m. MDT.
Baseball-size hail was reported just south of Goodlett, Texas, at 4:47 p.m. CDT. The same cell dropped baseball-size hail in Quanah, Texas, a few minutes later. Baseball-size hail also fell in Castle, Oklahoma, around 10 p.m. CDT.
Quoting 307. Neapolitan:

Did you misread my comment? (I used really short words and everything.) Or simply not read it at all? I mean, you appear to have missed both my re-posting of the global graph, and my posting of the Antarctic sea ice graph. So let me try again with out the images to distract you:

Arctic sea ice is at record low levels.

Antarctic sea ice is at record high levels.

These are, obviously, extreme* readings.

So my question (again): to what do you ascribe these concurrent extremes?





I keep wondering which comment to click?
Spoilt for choice here tonight, getting later at going o 10.30 pm here in the old world. Yawn stretch, just time for another comment before we get another blog update probably 3 seconds after I post this note ?

Nea always gets loads of kicks, so I'll click on this one of his.

I propose a sort of "Chart," like the ones for hurricane predictions where bloggers vote out of ten of what are in their minds as to the most significant events of the year so far. No holds barred of course.
So I would propose as some of my list the massive cold spells in the North East of the USA which I personally experienced earlier this year.
The count of 5 cat 5 hurricanes already this year.
Now, ( I am pushing the boat out a bit here but) the very high temps in Alaska being experienced this year so far.

I wont include the low temps/high sea ice in the Antarctic as I believe it to be part of a different cycle form the northern hemisphere, but other evidence of glacier melt in South America is in conflict with the sea ice build up. Possibly the system is balancing itself out, "at the moment!"

For the majority of us in the Northern Hemisphere we are concerned with our own back yard primarily and its getting into quite a mess.
If The permafrost in the north of North America starts to thaw in a big way, watch out because it will spell trouble.

I would propose a preposterous idea in which we split the world horizontally at the equator and look at each hemisphere as an almost separate entity, hence 2 different scenarios can be run side by side with each other, while of course, "we try and figure out what is probably going on."
With that, good night from the old world, or imaginary eastern hemisphere.
Gloom and doomers on here today try to enjoy the day everyone.
I could say one thing, IF..the gulfstream ever stopped or slowed down a whole lot...this world would be a very different place whew..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 325. Misanthroptimist:


I wouldn't get my science information from truthout. There are many papers on this topic. Here is a google search for just those since the beginning of 2014.
ok thanks..i thought what they were saying about what would happen IF the gulfstream stopped, what would happen..is pretty close to the mark..kinda scary too


66.76° N, 141.88° W ✕

175° @ 4 km/h

26.8 °C
Quoting 320. LargoFl:

is this possible guys?....the Greenland ice sheet is melting and releasing too much fresh water into the oceans..and could.....the warm gulf stream...slow down or even cease?...............this site sort of explains what would happen IF........................Link


I think the real story is how the gulfstream protects eastern US. I recently read that sea levels along the Florida Coast are 1 to 1.5 meters LOWER because the gulfstrean pulls water away, and protects us from the prevailing wind piling up the Atlantic on our coast. We had some pretty interesting flooding during and after hurricane Sandy because the Gulfstream slowed down some 30 %.... This is added on TOP of the global issues of sea level rise.
Quoting 335. indianrivguy:



I think the real story is how the gulfstream protects eastern US. I recently read that sea levels along the Florida Coast are 1 to 1.5 meters LOWER because the gulfstrean pulls water away, and protects us from the prevailing wind piling up the Atlantic on our coast. We had some pretty interesting flooding during and after hurricane Sandy because the Gulfstream slowed down some 30 %.... This is added on TOP of the global issues of sea level rise.


Sorta like when I put the hose on a mud puddle and get the water going fast, the 'hole' empties...

All kinds of doomsday scenarios.

I am starting to like my new digs at 600 feet above sea level... Now to just do something about those earthquakes.
Already a crazy year for hurricanes! The epac will probably be on fire this year!