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Super Tuesday Outbreak damage surveys find five EF-4 tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:21 PM GMT on February 07, 2008

Residents of the South continue to mourn the dead and clean up the tremendous destruction wrought by the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak. Tennessee suffered the most, with 33 dead, 189 injured, and at least 525 homes destroyed. Damage surveys indicate that at least five of this week's tornadoes were violent EF-4's on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with winds of 166-200 mph. The tornado that hit Jackson, Tennessee, causing $40 million in damage to Union University, was rated an EF-4. Another Tennessee tornado that hit the Morris Chapel area, killing three mobile home residents, was also rated EF-4. Northern Alabama suffered two EF-4's--one that hit Rosalie on Wednesday, killing one person, and a second tornado that hit Moulton, killing four and injuring 25. In Arkansas, an EF-4 tornado cut a 120-mile damage swath through the northern part of the state. Thirteen people died in this tornado, including four people in Atkins, and seven in Clinton. The NWS office in Little Rock has an excellent web page summarizing the Arkansas storms, complete with radar animations and jet stream graphics.

At least seven other tornadoes from the outbreak have been rated EF-3, according to the excellent Wikipedia page on the event. The Memphis metropolitan area was affected by an EF-2 and an EF-3 twister, and an EF-2 tornado hit the northeastern end of the Nashville metropolitan area.

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Figure 1. Preliminary tornado tracks and death toll from the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


Figure 2. Damage near Mountain View, Arkansas, along the 120-mile long track of the EF-4 tornado that swept through Clinton and Atkins. Image credit: wunderphotographer dennisearle.

The total death toll currently stands at 59, across five states and 19 counties, with hundreds of others injured. The outbreak is the deadliest in the U.S. since the May 31, 1985 outbreak that killed 76 across Ohio and Pennsylvania (and also 12 in Ontario, Canada). This week's outbreak was also the deadliest tornado outbreak in Kentucky since the April 3, 1974 Super Outbreak. In Arkansas, the 14 fatalities is the most since 25 were killed during the Benton, Arkansas Tornado Outbreak on March 1, 1997. Only one other February tornado outbreak in the past century compares to the Super Tuesday outbreak--the great February 21, 1971 Mississippi Valley outbreak, which left 119 dead across the South.

Record heat helped fuel the tornadoes
Record high temperature readings were recorded at 94 airports in 18 states across southeastern portion of the U.S. on Tuesday, according the the National Climatic Data Center. The spring-like warmth, when contrasted with the very wintry conditions on the other side of the strong cold front that pushed through the region on Super Tuesday, helped to fuel the formidable tornadoes observed.

As new damage surveys come in, I'll update this blog.

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Sunday at 8pm EST (9pm PST), there promises to be an interesting show on the National Geographic Channel called Six Degrees, which explores what might happen to the Earth for each degree of warming up to six degrees centigrade. The program is based on the book by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Fourth Estate, 2007). According to a review of this book posted by climate scientist Eric Steig at realclimate.org, "Mark Lynas will no doubt be pleased that I very much like the book. To be sure, it is alarming, but the question of whether it is alarmist is a more difficult one..."

Jeff Masters
Mt. View, Arkansas Storm Damage Feb 5th 08
Mt. View, Arkansas Storm Damage Feb 5th 08
Traveling along East Main Street, past the Hospital...
Tornado Damage
Tornado Damage
Damage from the tornado that came through Greenville, Ky on Feb. 5, 2008.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

EF-4! Wow, what a horrid system.
Storm predictor says tornado outbreak was forecast early


By Associated Press
2/6/2008 12:16 PM


OKLAHOMA CITY -- The public had days of warning before deadly tornadoes tore through four states, a meteorologist with the National Storm Prediction Center said Wednesday.
The storms that swept across Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas on Tuesday night killed at least 48 people, a death toll that ranks among the top 15 from tornado outbreaks since 1950, said Greg Carbin, the warning coordination meteorologist at the center in Norman, Okla., just south of Oklahoma City.

Forecasters started warning the public last week about the potential for dangerous tornadoes Tuesday, he said. Carbin said the last time this many people died in a tornado outbreak was May 3, 1999, when 46 people were killed during an outbreak of 70 twisters that touched down in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, including an incredibly powerful tornado that stayed on the ground for 38 miles and ripped through Oklahoma City's southern suburbs.

Carbin said that until National Weather Service workers and local emergency management crews examine the damage, it will be impossible to know exactly how many tornadoes touched down Tuesday or their exact strength.

He said 67 eyewitness accounts of tornadoes have been reported, but he said the number of actual twisters won't be that high, because of multiple persons seeing the same funnel. He said a reasonable guess is "30 to 40" tornadoes touched down.

Carbin said forecasters issued an outlook six days before Tuesday's storms, saying a tornado outbreak was possible.
"Certainly no one wants to talk well in advance about a deadly outbreak, because there are too many uncertainties," he said. "They are rare, so you can't be overly confident. But if you look at our forecast products over the week, it was handled well from a watch and warning standpoint yesterday."
Tuesday's outbreak was caused when a strong storm system that typically affects the nation during this time of the year collided with a springtime air mass filled with moisture. As the system passed over Oklahoma during the early morning hours, it produced only mild thunderstorms and rain before moving east.

But as the atmosphere warmed from the normal heating of the day, it led to the development of more severe thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes.

"It's not often you get the ingredients to coincide to the extent they did last night, perhaps once every 10 years," Carbin said.

Michelann Ooten, spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, said the tornado outbreak points up the year-round danger of twisters, even though they are more likely to occur in the spring.

"Do our people typically anticipate tornadoes in February? Absolutely not," she said. "But this points up truly you can have tornadoes any time of the year, which is why you need to have a NOAA weather radio and have that tool at your fingertips to get you through whatever emergency or disaster you find yourself a victim of."
There are still many surveys still to be done, it is quite possible there will be more EF4's (and maybe an EF5, the most likely candidate being in Arkansas).

The death toll is now 58 it appears.
Very sad day.Great coverage Dr. Masters.As always,Atlantic Hurricanes will be on top of any severe weather across the nation.Be sure to bookmark it if you like it.
Tornadoes and Global Warming
The Evidence Is Thin. The Consequences Are Real
By Chris Mooney

I want to approach the subject of this post with considerable caution. But at the same time, in the wake of this week's devastating tornado disasters in the South, I know a lot of people are wondering about the matter. So let's see what we can say.

Without a doubt, the tornado outbreak this week was odd. Jeff Masters notes: "What is really unusual about yesterday's Super Tuesday Outbreak is that it occurred in early February. Only one other tornado outbreak in the past century killed so many people so early in the year – the great Warren, Arkansas tornado outbreak of January 3, 1949, which killed 60 people." And Masters goes further:

[The] outbreak was fueled by record warmth over the South. Record high temperatures were recorded in Little Rock, Arkansas (75), Shreveport, LA (78), El Dorado, AR (77), Memphis, TN (75), Jackson, MS (81), and Charleston, SC (79), to name a few locations. A strong cold front associated with a powerful winter storm over the north central U.S. pushed into this warm, unstable air mass, triggering Tuesday's bout of violent weather.

All of this is, of course, suggestive – but we have to be very cautious whenever we're talking about the relationship between climate and weather. First, no individual event can ever be attributed to global climate change.

Moreover, when it comes to tornadoes, last year the definitive source of climate information, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, explicitly stated that there wasn't enough proof to claim that they had been changing:

There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the global ocean or in small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust-storms.

That's no surprising conclusion, given how hard it is to get good data on small-scale, short-lived phenomena like tornadoes. For more on that problem, see here.

But just because we can't yet establish firm evidence that tornadoes are changing doesn't mean they aren't. Measurement difficulties cut both ways, and we also have to consider theory – whether we think global warming will change the world in such a way as to produce more or stronger tornadoes, or to change their seasonality, etcetera.

On this front, there is at least one scientific paper that I've come across suggesting theoretical reasons for changes. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies found the following:

NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth’s climate warms.

But, according to the same model, the numbers of severe storms should decline over all, even as the strongest get stronger.

In short, it's a murky area. But for tornadoes as for many weather phenomena, we have to expect that global warming is going to change them in some way or other. And there's little reason to think we are going to much like the nature of those changes.

Thanks for the update Doc.


Good news for Tampa: About 220 miles to the west of us there is a huge area of rain forming with some embedded thunderstorms which looks like it will be moving in around midnight. Again, the NWS service was wrong about the stationary front not generating a low- it did.
Incredible storm
Posted at 7:02 AM on February 7, 2008 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
What a whopper.

The same storm that produced the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak dumped prolific snow totals on southern Wisconsin Wednesday. Over 20 inches of snow fell near Beloit, Wisconsin, and a large area from Madison to Milwaukee has seen over a foot of snow.

Over 800 vehicles were stranded on I-90, some for up to 8 hours. The Wisconsin National Guard flew a Blackhawk helicopter over the scene to survey the situation late last night, as ground crews worked to free stranded motorists.

The snow was part of the same low pressure system that produced as many as 78 tornadoes on Tuesday. An intense upper low spun northeast from the central plains into northern Illinois, wringing out every possible inch of snow.

It's the latest barrage in a winter of snow for southern Wisconsin. Madison has had 73.7 inches of snow so far this winter season. That's over 6 feet!
Again, the NWS service was wrong about the stationary front not generating a low- it did.

I'm not seeing whatever low you are mentioning FLWeatherFreak91.
Can you post a chart or a discussion showing or mentioning this low please?
Is this the one you were mentioning?


THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE LOW PRES 1015 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N84W LIFTING OUT TO THE
NE THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA.
I've been watching that area all afternoon...most of the convection has been washing out before landfall.
Good evening!

Seems like we'll have La Nina with us through most if not all summer according to CPC.Some models entertain the possibity it may stick around all summer.

Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update

Have a great night folks....

www.AdriansWeather.com

vortfix...this is not washing out at all. It's getting stronger.
5. vortfix 5:58 PM CST on February 07, 2008
Tornadoes and Global Warming


LOL!!! The media is so DISGUSTING (and stuff like this is likely why so many people are skeptics)!


Here is what REALLY caused (or heled cause) the tornadoes (and the CPC has been understating its strength; see my current blog on this and how the CPC has the ONI being far too high for the last fouple seasons - with their 3 month averages being higher than the highest mmonthly averages; for example, -1.2 for October-December, when even October was -1.38 and November and December much lower):

La Nina, Warmth Mix for Tornadoes
By SETH BORENSTEIN – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — All the right ingredients combined for Tuesday's killer tornadoes, especially warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Nina phenomenon. Just one thing was off: The calendar.

The Feb. 5 killer tornadoes — at least the 15th deadliest U.S. outbreak on record — had all the earmarks of a batch of twisters usually seen in March, said several meteorologists.

It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Tornadoes do happen in February, but a study by Schaefer two years ago found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Nina, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people.

But Tuesday's weather violence, which killed at least 50 people, was noteworthy. February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.

Part of the explanation is record warmth. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky — the hardest-hit states.

Meteorologists are quick to say they cannot blame global warming. There is not enough good data over enough years with weather events as small as tornadoes, to draw such conclusions.

But there were plenty of the standard ingredients for tornado formation Tuesday: a strong storm system coming from the west (this one buried parts of Colorado in snow); warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

While La Nina doesn't specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South, said Schaefer.

Like El Nino, it happens every few years, and it's been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, strengthening in January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Nina.

Preliminary figures for January — the numbers usually drop after closer scrutiny — show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes. The average from 1997-2007 is 40 tornadoes, three deaths, and three killer tornadoes. The record for most tornadoes was 212 in January 1999.

Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.

"We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center.

Get used to this because the patterns that lead to tornado outbreaks seem to be here for a while, meteorologists said.

"As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."
...
GM all,thats if anyone is here,the midwinter quiet has set in on the blog.
Thank you Dr.Masters,will be interesting to see that national geographic show.As for La Nina,it looks like its here to stay for the long term,which should make it interesting in the next months,right into spring.
Thank you for the tragic surreal and truthful update! I will tune into NATGEO on Sunday to see the six degree, thank you for the primetime update!:)
The Atlantic keeps getting colder and colder (2007 is at the top)... as far as I can remember the Caribbean (aside from a few small areas, like on the 2007 map) always stayed above 80*F/26*C even at its coolest...


Yes indeed STL and its forcasted by the CPC 6 month seasurface temp outlook to get quite cool in the central atlantic...Will be interesting to see how things playout.

www.adriansweather.com
It seems as if La Nina isn't all good for increased hurricane activity; the last time we had SSTs this cool in the Atlantic during the current warm AMO period was also during the last strong La Nina; El Nino by contrast appears to warm the Atlantic (although there are other factors to consider; of related note is that the opposite occurs in the West Pacific with El Nino resulting in cooler SSTs but increased activity and La Nina warmer SSTs and less activity):





In 1999 they warmed up from below normal levels early in the year to above normal levels by hurricane season; this didn't happen in 2000 however (2000 may be a better match based on current trends and ENSO, although La Nina was present for 2 years by then, but didn't get a s strong until the second year).

On another note, the Indian Ocean has been cooling faster, which may mean increased activity this year if trends continue, since Indian Ocean SSTs have a similar impact on shear as Pacific SSTs do (according to the NOAA news article on shear and warmer SSTs); the Indian Ocen was very warm last year:

Tropical Cyclone Hondo Update 1

Issued: 2100 UTC 08 Feb 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Hondo is located near 15.9S-84.6E moving towards the southeast. Estimated surface winds are near 115 knots and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb. Wind shear is 5-10 knots and sea surface temperatures are 27C.

Hondo is both intense and impressive with a solid eye seen on infrared imagery, which was used to determine center fix. The tropical cyclone%u2019s winds and pressure were estimated using Dvorak classifications, which showed the cyclone, has a CI of 6.0 or 115 knots, 927 mb. Multiplatform satellite winds determine these winds extend outward 13 nmi. Satellite imagery showed a well define solid eye tucked nicely into the central dense overcast or central cold cover with outer banding features and coinciding with the upper level outflow jets/channels. One of the Global Models, the CMC, showed the tropical cyclone continue southeastward then weakening, which I suspect is because of wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

by W456

My Dvorak Details:

Surrounding Gray Shade - Light Gray - LG - (-60C)
Eye Temperature - Dark Gray - DG - (-35C)
Eye Number - E 5.0
Eye Adjustment Factors - 0
Banding Features added to adjust to Model Expected T-no (MET) - BF 1.0

E 5.0 BF 1.0 = CI 6.0

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC - 16SHONDO.115kts-937mb-156S-844E



===========================================
The name Ivan has reappeared




Thanks for the update, 456.
Feb 08, 2008
This La Nina and Possible PDO Flip and Implications for a Global Cooling
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Early in January 2007, the Phil Jones of the UK Hadley center predicted that 2007 would be the warmest on record due to the El Nino, which some scientists including Hansen predicted could be the strongest in history. Well of course the El Nino quickly faded and La Nina slowly came on during 2007. Temperatures globally cooled, starting in the Southern Hemisphere winter and then transitioning into the Northern Hemisphere winter. At the end of the year, the Hadley center announced it was the 7th warmest, blaming the oncoming La Nina for the cooling and busted forecast. This January, MSU satellite data indicated the globe was cooler than the 1979-98 average for the first time in years.
With the recent global cooling that is the result of the moderate to strong La Nina, I thought I would again look at the last decade and see how well the global temperatures reacted to the transition from a super El Nino in 1997/98 to La Ninas from 1998 to 2000/2001, an El Nino in 2002/03 and borderline El Ninos in 2003/04 and 2004/05 and again 2006/07 followed by the return of La Nina in 2007/08/. I used the MSU lower tropospheric temperatures and the Multivariate ENSO Index of Wolter.

Temperatures track well with the ENSO state as indicated by the MEI. There is an apparent lag of 2 or more months of temperature to the MEI. With a 2 year lag applied, the Pearson correlation of the raw (unsmoothed data sets) is 0.67 (r-squared of 0.45). For the same time period, the CO2 correlation is only 0.07 (r-squared of 0.005).

See how the ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) frequency relates to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which has turned negative here. As to whether this strong La Nina and strongly negative PDO this winter marks the start of the new cold period or just another false alarm like 1998-2001, the next year or so will tell. The last three PDO phases each lasted 25-30 years and we are 30 years since the last change called the Great Pacific Climate Shift so it appears this time, the change may be for real. If indeed the sun which many solar scientists believe is about to go into a quiet mode seen only seen every 200 to 400 years, is much weaker this upcoming cycle, this may be very interesting indeed.

If anyone saw my comment (very likely) about God and severe weather, please ignore it and just forget about it and move on.

I don't really think I should have said what I did. Sorry about that if anyone took offense to it.
Oh now here is a fun find. Discovery is going to anounce it Monday but it's already running. From what I understand should eventually have current WV & rainfall as well. The snow it up now, across the earth which you can click on & give it a drag in any direction to get it spinning... the storys were good too
26. JLPR
width=
umm if I it weren't February I would think that the convection off shore in Africa was a Tropical Wave =P
that wave down there sure dos look like a Tropical Wave and its holding up vary well and yes i no its too far S but it looks like there may be more comeing off the Africa coast whats wind shear down there at this time of year???
surface low along the ITCZ...off the west coast of africa
29. JLPR
hey yeah its active there with convection isnt that area supposed to be mostly clear with lots of shear by this time?
and there are two lows about to come off shore a 1006mb and a 1007mb low
i wudnt even watch the area twice
there is nothing there to keep them together
32. JLPR
yeah it is just something to watch now because tomorrow they shouldn't be there =D
thats the magic of shear =P and the fact that we are in February
Snowdepth at the base of Mt.Rainier has gone above 200"

Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Snow Snowfall Snowfall Precip Quality
Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Depth 6 hour 24 hour 1 hour Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph) (inches) (inches) (inches) (inches)
08 Feb 4:00 pm 27 27 98 18 W 10G22 202.00 4.00 11.00 0.08 OK
i saw some in on TWC tonight some where in OR or WA i am not sure they have likw 610" of snow in the mts not all the mts but on one of them
tropical cyclone ivan????

oh sugar lumps not agin )=
There were several comments made on Dr. Master's blog this week mentioning that people were not well informed about the Tuesday severe outbreak.
I'm posting this today (Saturday)....This is two to three days or more ahead of the next possible event.
The models are still argueing over the track of this next system.....but I wanted to get this posted so people will be aware!






DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE MON/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE POLAR STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST...AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES EMANATING FROM AN INTENSE ZONAL
UPSTREAM JET. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITHIN A BELT EXTENDING OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...WITH AN INITIAL EMBEDDED BROAD SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT...THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTING STREAMS OF FLOW ...WILL
BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. AND...WITH A CONDITIONALLY/ CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION BY THAT
TIME...THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
SEVERE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU
REGION IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR BENEATH A
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...NEAR A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS.

WHILE THE TIMING OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING IS STILL UNCLEAR /ONSET
CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE EARLY MONDAY EVENING/...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE INITIATION OF
STORMS EAST OF A DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A FEW
SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONVECTION EXPANDS IN
COVERAGE...DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU...AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

GIVEN THE SHARPNESS OF THE FRONT...AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL
TEND TO EITHER FORM ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...OR QUICKLY BECOME
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY MITIGATE ANY TORNADO/DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL. BUT...AT LEAST THE RISK FOR HAIL WILL EXIST...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME FAIRLY LARGE BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/09/2008






DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2008

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY /FEB 12-13/...

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND...THIS GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MREF
MEANS AND THE ECMWF LEND SUPPORT FOR GROWING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BY NEXT TUESDAY.
A RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...
AND INLAND ADVECTION...APPEARS PROBABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MAIN POLAR WAVE. AND...A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF FLOW FIELDS...AND DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...AT THE LIKELY ONSET OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS LATE NEXT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/09/2008
Enso neutral to weak phase either way lends itself to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. Strong phases either way seem to be unfavorable for opposite reasons. Strong El Nino means weak Bermuda High, strong sw upper level shear only favors east N. Atlantic. Strong La Nina tends to produce too strong a ridge in N.Atlantic forcing anything that develops toward SW or chokes it off w/ dry air.
i can see people are anxious for cane season lol
Folks lol the atlantic is closed for business for atleast the next 3-4 months no worries at all.

Enjoy the weekened nothing but sunny skies over south florida!Take care.

www.AdriansWeather.com
The Sun Also Sets

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.

Anybody else see this? I find this most interesting. For the whole article go here.
http://ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=287279412587175
I read that article the other day pilotguy1.

I found it interesting also.
Being a long time weather observer and an amateur astronomer for most of my life I have always thought that Solar cycles and volcanoes have in fact impacted the weather perhaps to a greater degree than many of the other suspected factors. Hopefully I'll be around long enough to see if this one plays out.
In the yellow press there has been way too much emphasis on the warm side of what's been causing this violent weather without any regard to the extreme cold on the other side. Ask most Midwesterners about the warm weather right now and you will get a pretty rude response.
January 2008 had the largest areal Northern Hemisphere snow cover for the period of 1966-2008, just slightly larger than the previous largest anomaly of January, 1984.


Article


pilotguy1..been trying to keep up with this for months now...interesting stuff
Pilotguy1.....you might find this an interesting blog.......There are several of us discussing this and other subjects over there and there is a wealth of information and links available.
-- another perspective regarding "Six Degrees" mentioned in Doctor Master's blog above:


Feb 08, 2008

ABC: Global Warming to Force Humans to Flee Destroyed Earth?

By Scott Whitlock, Newsbusters

“Good Morning America” weatherman and resident environmental alarmist Sam Champion wondered on Friday if global warming could cause “the ultimate climate disaster” and force humanity to abandon Earth and live in space. Champion used the segment to preview a new documentary called “Six Degrees” that will air on the National Geographic Channel on Sunday. He failed to inform viewers that the author upon which the special is based on, Mark Lynas, is a hard-left environmentalist who once threw a pie in the face of Bjorn Lomborg at a reading of Lomborg’s book, “The Skeptical Environmentalist.”

Lynas also predicted the end of civilization if global warming isn’t reversed: “If temperatures soar by six degrees within less than a century, that we are going to face nothing less than a global wipe out.” Lynas is not only an alarmist, he’s an alarmist who doesn’t even believe such events, that are so frighteningly used in his special, are “even likely.” A February 5, 2008 report by the Business and Media Institute noted the real intent of the documentary: it’s one thing to portray a doomsday scenario as it would happen unless drastic action is taken when it comes to global warming. It’s been done over and over. But Mark Lynas, author of “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet,” took a different approach. Lynas, who is actively campaigning for government “solutions” to combat global warming, presented what he acknowledged were unlikely scenarios in his book and movie to create a sense of climate change panic.

It’s hard to believe that Champion could top previous hyperbolic segments. (This is the same person who in early 2007 hosted a piece which wondered if “billions” could die from global warming.) But by speculating about the need to abandon Earth, he has indeed raised the bar. Note: Champion also stood on top of a snowmound after a record blizzard in upstate New York and proclaimed it the result of global warming.

Read more here.

....talk about fear tactics!

Vortfix,

Thanks,
Started on it. Will read it all.
i just can't wait till the hurricane season when all the wishcasters come and when everyone argues
not really though.
Mark Lynas,.....so, that's the guy that threw that pie at Lomborg. I never knew who actually did it. LOL

Well it figures that Champion would be touting this program......he's an idiot!
Crazy weather this winter... incredibly strong tornado outbreak and the greatest areal snow cover in the Northern hemisphere in over 40 years despite the missing snow in Europe. Looks like the other continents are making up for this by getting snow for two.
I really feel sorry for the people who suffer from those anomalies. We also experience very unusual weather with already December and January 5-10 °C warmer than average but at least this november-like condition causes no damage. It is quite annoying though to have a foggy November lasting three months, I don't quite remember when I saw the sun for the last time... must look it up in my weather diary.

Oh, and there is still this one: Nice low pressure system over the Nord Atlantic, central pressure is at 930 mb at the moment whereas the high over Central Europe has a maximum pressure of 1040. A pressure gradient of 110 means quite some wind...
I try to get some good satellite imagery to see what this system looks like.
"Ask most Midwesterners about the warm weather right now and you will get a pretty rude response."

In a battle of annecdotes, ya lose -- "Shanghai may have endured one of its coldest months ever in January but...the average temperature...last year was 17.8degreesCelsius/64degreesFahrenheit, the warmest since record[keeping] began in 1873...2*C/3.6*F more than the long-term average. While Shanghai on average sees only 10 days with temperatures above 35*C/95*F, last year there were 30..." -- but such spot checks of times and locations specificly chosen to fit an argument are about weather, and not about long-term climate assessment.
Folks lol the atlantic is closed for business for atleast the next 3-4 months no worries at all.

Correct. I don't understand why people even worry about development at this time of year. I wouldn't start worrying until May, and even then, I'd only look for a weak storm.

Personally, I'm glad that hurricane season is not here. I need a break from my first true year of forecasting, which was obviously 2007.
55. V26R
Kori You are not alone My Friend!!!
Indeed, the tropical Atlantic is probably closed, as you put it, but the North Atlantic can cause severe trouble to North and Central Europe (my location is Finland, NE Europe). I'll be watching this low pressure system carefully since I haven't seen any with a central pressure so low for a long time. We might get some nasty weather early next week.
aspectre,
If you actually read my post you will see that I was making fun of the news media, not making any climate statement.
Kori You are not alone My Friend!!!

That doesn't mean subtropical or tropical cyclones can't develop during the off-season (2003 and 2007 should be enough to prove that), it's just very rare.

Indeed, the tropical Atlantic is probably closed, as you put it, but the North Atlantic can cause severe trouble to North and Central Europe (my location is Finland, NE Europe). I'll be watching this low pressure system carefully since I haven't seen any with a central pressure so low for a long time. We might get some nasty weather early next week.

Yeah, I was talking about tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones. I know very well that Europe can (and does) get significantly impacted from vigorous extratropical cyclones.
Evening, everybody,

54. KoritheMan 4:58 PM EST on February 09, 2008
Folks lol the atlantic is closed for business for atleast the next 3-4 months no worries at all.

Correct. I don't understand why people even worry about development at this time of year. I wouldn't start worrying until May, and even then, I'd only look for a weak storm.


I don't think anybody who posted about the "weather" off the west African coast was WORRYING, precisely . . . LOL

It's still interesting to take a glimpse at the area every now and then, just to see how far north the ITCZ has moved "this time" . . .

(also known as "anticipation is making me wait" :o)
Hey everyone, sure most have seen this but the NAM and GFS are hinting at what looks like could be some rather severe weather in the next system.

Mon, Tues and Wed

I think this is the same mess vortfix posted the forecasts for below.
61. V26R
Kori You are not alone My Friend!!!

That doesn't mean subtropical or tropical cyclones can't develop during the off-season (2003 and 2007 should be enough to prove that), it's just very rare.



Living in the Northeast
We are familiar with the Severe Ocean Storms that do form near and off the Eastern Seaboard!
Thats why we take them all seriously
We are long over due for a hit
An area of convection (96P) located near 15.5S 138.8E or 420 NM west of Cairns, Australia. Recent Infrared Imagery and a Mornington Island radar loop indicates increasing low level cyclonic turning in the Gulf of Carpentaria. SSMI 85 ghz microwave image shows an overall increase in persistent deep convection. Quikscat Pass shows 15 to 20 knot unflagged winds. Upper level anticyclone located to the west of the system continues to provide good outflow aloft and low to moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 mb. Due to the increased low level organization, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
53. aspectre 8:17 PM GMT on February 09, 2008
In a battle of annecdotes, ya lose -



-- Pilotguy, don't be concerned about the AGW fanatics who seem to be on such edge lately as their theories get blown out of the water by really "credible" science. Their idols like the Goreacle, the IPCC and others are not accustomed to having their "self-perceived" intelligences questioned! The truth is their side and their beliefs are being eroded every single day! It's actually fun to watch them kick, scream and squirm from their own folly!

Oh these peer reviewed demanding weenies are of no concern to me.
The scam has been uncovered and very soon the MSM will be attacking you shills like the dogs you truly are!


Thursday, September 06, 2007

Mark Lynas is intellectually bankrupt
Without a doubt the green activist Mark Lynas has to be contender for the Global Village Idiot of the 21st Century Award. This morning, he told the Independent,
"It's intellectual bankruptcy. The entire scientific community is telling the world that it's the biggest threat to human civilisation. What more evidence do you need?"
No Mark, what however is intellectual bankruptcy is to claim that something is intellectually bankrupt by saying that because lots of people believe something it must by definition be true. To dismiss something as devoid of intellectual rigour on the basis of an ad populum argument is the real act of intellectual bankruptcy here.

Incidentally, before anyone starts screaming "climate change denier" this is not about whether or not man-made climate change is either right or wrong. It's about the way in which those that consider it to be true persist in portraying the nonsense that "scientific knowledge" is about "consensus", and that whatever the consensus is, is a scientific fact.

Those people do a disservice to the past 400 years of scientific learning and discovery by peddling hokum arguments to the masses. Man-made climate change may in fact be right, however telling people it's right because lots of people believe it is right is bollocks.
62. HadesGodWyvern 8:21 PM EST on February 09, 2008



I always find it amazing how storms spin up in the Gulf of Carpentaria, which seems like a relatively tiny space . . .
This is looking better organized every time I look at it, too.
National Geographic is actually airing a show based on a book by an absolute nut-case Climate Alarmist that goes around throwing pies in the face of people that don't agree with his false non-fact based assumptions!

Well y'all....if you are a responsible adult parent you might want to consider if this is something you want your children to watch!

I know who this Mark Lynas is and what his true beliefs are.

My thoughts regarding this shill are that he belongs in a padded cell and not on television!

I don't think anybody who posted about the "weather" off the west African coast was WORRYING, precisely . . . LOL

I wouldn't be so sure. Everyone (including myself, but I was stupid back then), or at least most of everyone, worried about that around this time last year. I remember most made a big deal out of that blob that was in the Carribean in April.

Living in the Northeast
We are familiar with the Severe Ocean Storms that do form near and off the Eastern Seaboard!
Thats why we take them all seriously
We are long over due for a hit


And one of these days, probably relatively shortly, it will happen. A significant hurricane will no doubt strike the area within the next 20 years. I just hope everyone is prepared when it happens.
I have been looking at some of the compiled info from the super tuesday outbreak and one of the tornadoes in Arkansas was apparently on the ground for over 100 miles. That's absolutely amazing. I didn't realize that they stayed on the gorund for that kind of distance.
Jim, we really wish they WOULDN'T stay on the ground that long, either.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Southeast Indian Ocean (Northwest Australia)

Tropical Cyclone Adice #1
===========================
At 0:00AM UTC, Tropical Low 08U [996 hPa] located near 16.0S 124.7E or 60 kms south-southeast of Kuri Bay and 340 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The low is reported as stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday as it moves offshore to the west. Gales are not expected in coastal areas on Sunday or Monday, however, it is possible that gales could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Kalumburu on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Mardie to Kalumburu.

---
97P.INVEST.. this advise is for different system in the Southeast Indian Ocean, not TC 17S.
Alarmist 'Six Degrees' Producer Says Global Warming Catastrophe Not 'Even Likely'
Author Mark Lynas tells audience the 'Armageddon' scenario featured in his film probably won't happen.
By Jeff Poor
Business & Media Institute
2/5/2008 2:48:10 PM



It’s one thing to portray a doomsday scenario as it would happen unless drastic action is taken when it comes to global warming. It’s been done over and over.



But Mark Lynas, author of “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet,” took a different approach. Lynas, who is actively campaigning for government “solutions” to combat global warming, presented what he acknowledged were unlikely scenarios in his book and movie to create a sense of climate change panic.


Lynas appeared at a preview screening of the movie “Six Degrees,” which is based on his book, at the National Geographic Society in Washington, D.C., February 4. The events shown in the movie included a submerged Lower Manhattan, a wilted Amazonian rainforest and a permanently arid climate reminiscent of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s in the American West – severely disabling U.S. agriculture.



However, according to Lynas, the scenarios he portrayed in his book are not inevitable – in fact, he thinks they’re not “even likely at the moment.” He said he just wrote the book to give “what-if scenarios at each stage of the process.”

“I’m worried about the sort of catastrophe-type approach, despite the fact you’ve seen it and the fact that it’s in my book,” Lynas said. “But, you know, it’s there because we’re talking about real potential events here, this isn’t science fiction. But, at the same time, I warn people not to get hung up on the five, six-degree catastrophes. Yes, we have to realize what they could be and therefore avoid them, but we haven’t … wake up each morning and feeling depressed about the fact that we’re inevitably going to see the collapse of human civilization.”


“I do not think that is inevitable,” he said. “I don’t think it’s even likely at the moment, particularly given how rapidly things are changing and the positive stuff which I’m seeing every day.”



Lynas said the entire world should not have to cut its emissions and suffer the economic consequences, but that emissions cuts should be targeted toward developed countries, because the poorer countries should be able catch up in terms of growth.



“I don’t think we can turn around to the Chinese and say, ‘I’m sorry, we need to save the future of the planet,’” Lynas said during the movie. “The rich countries have to take the lead and we have to cut our emissions in a much more dramatic sense to allow for some room for growth in the poorer countries.”



Lynas also had some criticism of the Bush administration for its resistance to global warming political solutions – suggesting retrofitting the U.S. economy geared toward “green” technologies is the way to go.



“You know, you hear a lot about first-mover disadvantage and you hear this from the Bush administration. That’s been their line all the way through, that if they cut their emissions, they’re going to be at an economic disadvantage.” Lynas said. “[W]hat about being at an economic advantage by being the people who bring this technology to commercial markets first and develop that kind of dominance.”




Lynas, who is actively campaigning for government “solutions” to combat global warming, presented what he acknowledged were unlikely scenarios in his book and movie to create a sense of climate change panic.

There's a lot of people with vested interests here that are shaking in their boots because their "Consensus" ls completely crumbling around them.
And why?

Because the truth about it all is finally surfacing and will finally rule the day!
The 123 mile long tornado that devastated Atkins, Clinton, Mountain View, Highland & other areas is the longest track recorded tornado since 1950. It was rated an EF-4 & killed 13 in Arkansas.

In pictures: Bolivia floods (5 stars, a quick look from the ground of what Rainman showed from above). The little girls with dolls & ducks, the horses & cows, the shear # of those involed & homes. Around 50 people have been killed and more than 40,000 families left homeless after weeks of heavy rain caused severe flooding in Bolivia.
With those cool waters takeing shape in the central atlantic its a possibility tropical waves may have alot to contend with this season.Hopefully things dont warm up as we get into the heart of the season.

We can always have close to home development so regardless we should always be prepared.

Also as i metioned before a strong preseason la Nina as always never resulted in a high activity storm season.Lets hope it pans out that way with no damage in any coastline.
i hope your right 23
Adrian, as you(we) say, "It only takes one!" Cool/warm waters, etc. Makes no difference, when one storm can destroy lives.
moonlightcowboy that's what i kept sayin all last year.
76. moonlightcowboy 10:30 PM EST on February 09, 2008
Adrian, as you(we) say, "It only takes one!" Cool/warm waters, etc. Makes no difference, when one storm can destroy lives.

Hey buddy!

No doupt my friend it only takes one to destroy lives.Thats exactly why come june 1st if you live in a hurricane prone area you should have completed all hurricane preps and not wait for it to be just of your coastline.This is why i created a hurricane preparedness section on my site.
by the way 23 i love your site
79. hahaguy 10:37 PM EST on February 09, 2008
by the way 23 i love your site

Thanks!My efforts are to keep folks informed when severe weather threatens.Feel free to use it anytime.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Huckabee's global warming dance

Gov. Mike Huckabee sent mixed signals this morning about how he would approach global warming if elected President.

During a speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington DC, the Republican former Arkansas governor derided the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He insisted America should never surrender its sovereignty to international organizations or compromise its interests with burdensome agreements or excessive regulation.

But then, during a press conference afterward, Huckabee seemed to suggest that God gave man a moral responsibility to protect His creation from greenhouse gas pollution. But he was evasive on whether he believes global warming is being caused by human industry, saying "that's an issue that can be divisive."

A reporter asked Huckabee: "Do you believe that people have a moral responsibility to protect God's creation from pollution, including man-made global warming?"

He replied: "I do believe we have a moral responsibility to take care of the planet....At the heart of conservatism is conservation.....The Earth doesn't belong to us, it is not ours to abuse...For me, it's a matter of 'I don't own something, it's not mine to abuse it.'"

"Anything that says we can use up the planet...That's not conservatism, that's pure selfishness," Huckabee said.

Bloomberg news reported in October 2007 that Huckabee was only the second Republican candidate for President to support mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions. The other candidate who supports them is Sen. John McCain, who sponsored an early but failed legislative effort to limit global warming gases through a "cap and trade" system. Such systems financially penalize polluters and reward companies that reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide. President Bush and all the Republican candidates who have dropped out of the race oppose mandatory limits on carbon dioxide.

Is it a coincidence that the two top remaining candidates on the Republican side -- as well as both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side -- all support mandatory limits on global warming pollution? As the poet once wrote, "We report, you decide." (Wait...sorry...maybe that was Fox News).

Photobucket


Here is what Bloomberg news reported on October 13:

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said he supports a mandatory cap on global-warming pollution and that the U.S. has a moral obligation to address climate change.

``It goes to the moral issue,'' the former Arkansas governor said at a climate-change conference today in Manchester, New Hampshire. ``We have a responsibility to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, to conserve energy, to find alternative forms of energy that are renewable and sustainable and environmentally friendly.''

Huckabee said he supports an economy-wide ``cap-and-trade'' system to control greenhouse gases, which scientists say are causing climate change. The program, which has been introduced in Congress, would create a market for buying and selling permits to allow carbon-dioxide emissions. President George W. Bush is among Republicans who oppose a carbon cap.

Vort, the AGW agenda is finally being tharwted. And, hopefully, neither of the remaining, leading candidates can further their cause. Truth eventually prevails.
If nothing else...the fallacy of AGW has successfully diverted voter attention away from the most important issue we face in this nation right now....

Anyone want to take a stab at what that is?
Well, Vort, I'd say there's been a couple of things that have diverted attention from our looming economic disaster.
Bingo Cowboy.....talk about impending disaster?
You just predicted the trainwreck waiting to happen.
Our worst disaster is our current economic situation.

Now, which Presidential candidate has the true qualifications to fix it?

Unfortunately, I don't see a qualified candidate! Not among the remaining, leading four. And, that's about to come down to three soon. Then Hillary and Obama will duke it out probably all the way to the convention. UNLESS, there's some new "secret" one of them pops out on the other and I'll bet there is. The latest rumor I have is that she's been loaned $5 million from Dubai and some of her top staffers are working this month without pay. That's a sure sign that she's in trouble. So, the race will be between Obama and McCain - both of whom are tied to Ted Kennedy. The economy? Either candidate is a rough choice there!

The slow period: when a discussion of the merits of various presidential candidates can genuinely be considered a discussion of tropical weather . . . all that hot air, u know . . .

g'nite all . . .
LOL, Baha! How are you doing?

...yeah, off topic, but it generated from GW and weather! lol
bush went stupid mccain will go nuts obama is proably ur best bet but then there could be a north and south.
i cherish these slow periods lol
the new NAM and GFS shows the approaching system producing severe weather in Florida. also - a low of possibly tropical origin meeting up with the front in the gulf???
92. JFLORIDA 6:21 AM EST on February 10, 2008 Hide this comment.
the new NAM and GFS shows the approaching system producing severe weather in Florida. also - a low of possibly tropical origin meeting up with the front in the gulf???

That's what I'm seeing J. This looks like a pretty good change for some big Thunderstorms. I think the NWS is downplaying the chances for rain though since the models show a 90-100% chance. We'll see
A TC to develope off the north west coast of Australia by Monday. Cheers AussieStorm
The thing I just love about weather is that it doesn't read the hysterical press with its 'man has caused global warming and if we don't punish the successful nations, we will all drown' politically driven mentality.

Snow is falling in record amounts and it's global warmings fault. Hurricanes will or will not be big this year and whichever way it goes, global warming is at the root.

Yes, thankfully, weather doesn't or can't or wont.. read the 'Tass' media hysteria.

Weather just does its own thing... regardless.

You go...Weather.
Carbon Cap is a great big lie.

It is nothing more than a ruse to impose another tax. Notice that there is no requirement to reduce, merely a way to salve supposed 'guilty feelings' about being a resource hog.

Yes, we are squandering the precious resources available to us on this planet of ours.

Down here in Southwest Florida, it is okay to destroy the environment as long as you supposedly preserve some worthless piece of land elsewhere. Another example...it is illegal to gather tree snails, dead or alive, yet if you are building on that some land, you are allowed to 'bulldoze' the same snails into the ground without a second glance.

Carbon caps are a fraud imposed on the ignorant masses in the hopes that they be convinced the elites are looking out for them when the exact opposite is true.

Socialism/Communism has found a new home and it is 'Global Warming is Man-Made'.
Lindenii,

Amen Sister. From a part time SW Fla. resident.
Morning all except Aussie, to whom I will say, "Good evening, mate!"

I noticed the warnings posted on BoM's website about that. I was watching the the other one, too (in the Bay).

What's your feeling about these systems? Any chance of direct effects of a TC to that area west of Broome?
Tiny cyclone just keeps going....

80. hurricane23 3:40 AM GMT on February 10, 2008
79. hahaguy 10:37 PM EST on February 09, 2008
by the way 23 i love your site

Thanks!My efforts are to keep folks informed when severe weather threatens.Feel free to use it anytime.

www.AdriansWeather.com


Love the site, but doesn't the North American season run from May not June?
Seeing all of the anti-global warming denialist/coolie posts here makes me sick... what happened to this site?! Too bad I am not Admin...

I have a good idea that if La Nina hadn't developed and 2007 had smashed all records for warmth (should be obvious how global temperatures dropped from the warmest on record last winter to much cooler now, just a year later, nevermind that land temperatures cooled much more slowly, indicating that ENSO is the culprit), I wouldn't be seeing all of this junk right now... (and I bet all of the denialists have no clue as to why La Nina is referred to a "cold episode"; they are also likely influenced by all of the "global warming will destroy the world" Hollywood movies and the media, which also obviously has no clue, as evidenced by half of the papers blaming the recent tornadoes on global warming - at least some actually stated that they were either caused by La Nina or not caused by global warming, same for a lot of the other weird La Nina generated weather lately...). Of course, you have to go back decades to find another La Nina like the one right now... so they obviously forgot (if they were alive then) what La Nina does to the climate.

Here is a hint:

Big Chill for the Greenhouse

Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


Note - that was from 1988; I wonder how many denialists and coolies were talking about global warming being a scam then? Probably a lot, at least until another record warm year was set a few years later, though probably picked up again after Pinatubo...
This next system now over baja,Mexico looks like it will be far enough south for big severe wx event for all of FL. It will have cold air to its north and if Sfc low stays south of big bend, will be bad (severe wx) but bring alot of beneficial rains.
STL, do you remember in 78 when they were worried about "Global Cooling"? I have the Nat Geo mag w/ that as headline. There's nothing wrong with the debate especially if the environment gets cleaned in the process. There isn't enough data (yet) to prove or disprove GW.
Dr Masters, this storm was a little spooky for me. The reason why is that I spoke with Ivansrvr a couple of days before this about the Super Storm of 1993. He was telling me things about it I wasn't aware of so I did a little research about it. When I sat up that Tuesday night helping with emergency postings on SoutherLady's blog, I started seeing a pattern to the Tuesday storm that appeared to look very similar to the Super Storm of 1993. What I would like to know is you assessment on the comparison between these two storms and their similarities and differences.
The reason why this storm was spooky for me is because back in the 70's we had a very bad blizzard that ripped through the Midwest. It was compared to the Armistice Day Blizzard and there were many discussions as to which one produced the most snow. A few days before that blizzard struck, my father showed me pictures of the Armistice Day Blizzard that he took. I saw things in those pictures I had never seen before and had trouble believing were possible like 10 foot high snow drifts crossing roads and running for 100's of feet along the ground. Well I found myself caught in that 70's blizzard and saw first hand myself snow doing things I didn't know were possible. I saw snow drifts from 7 to 10 feet high, as much as 100 feet wide, and many hundreds of feet long. Witnessing that Super Tuesday Storm was like deja vu for me, even though I was witnessing that storm on radar and by it's storm and tornado reports. Since I have seen many tornados and tornado damage, it was very easy for me to see in my mind what was going on as though I was there. A very spooky night for me.
101. MichaelSTL 6:17 PM GMT on February 10, 2008
Seeing all of the anti-global warming denialist/coolie posts here makes me sick... what happened to this site?!


Obviously, some people are willing to discern
truth for themselves and not swallow - hook,
line and sinker, what's being spoon-fed to them
in order to perpetuate agendas. I suppose in
the beginning there were legitimate, integral
efforts to understand the CO2/temp
relationship, but that was quickly seized by
opportunists. Now, as the ACO2/temp theories
get blown out of the water by "credible"
science, the AGW fanatics are on great edge as
it all comes tumbling down.

Fortunately, AGW advocates and their wide use
of scare tactics is finally being refuted! Yet,
we still have promotion of these films such as
"Six Degrees" that mis-represent truth and
manages to scare children and whomever will
listen. But, that is all changing as AGW is
being exposed for the scam that it truly
is...and that is quite "refreshing!" :)


101. MichaelSTL 1:17 PM EST on February 10, 2008 Seeing all of the anti-global warming denialist/coolie posts here makes me sick... what happened to this site?! Too bad I am not Admin...

Yeah! How about you the admin! So you can silence ALL DISSENT! And if we dont agree with you then we are crazy!!LOL......Why dont you sign up for a governmental job, then you can boss around the whole world!!! Round up all those GW denialists and throw them in prison!! .........Seriously, your whining is annoying, so either put up with our skepticism or bug off!!!
MNTornado, thanks for posting your story and your Dad's. I hope Dr. Masters answers your query. I am interested too, as I have certainly seen snow do amazing things here in NW VT. Ice too. It is shocking to see a 300 year old tree destroyed by an ice storm. Ice Fog is a marvel. Deep snows, wild drifts, whiteouts and avalanches, can be deadly. Especially with the climate changing patterns, we need to know all we can to respect the planet, adapt, do less harm, and co-exist. Our survival has always depended on it. Many thanks.
Can't help but notice the blob SE of Hawaii today. Current Generation Probibility (pretty big area of .2-.4% chance). Yeah nil chance to develop, but can't keep from looking.

sky that aint a blob its a massive growing lump!!!!!!!!
103. Ivansrvivr 12:23 PM CST on February 10, 2008
STL, do you remember in 78 when they were worried about "Global Cooling"? I have the Nat Geo mag w/ that as headline. There's nothing wrong with the debate especially if the environment gets cleaned in the process. There isn't enough data (yet) to prove or disprove GW.


I wasn't even here back then, and from what I have seen, that was media hype (see here "The global cooling myth").


And to others - you can go and post whatever in the climate change blog, but don't keep posting it in this blog (I have also seen some posts that bash Dr. Masters (at least not in this blog), because he posts what other scientists say). Or, you can, but if I post stuff like this, don't object to it:

January 2008 was Australia’s warmest January on record, with a mean temperature 1.23°C above the reference (1961−90) normal, breaking the previous record of +1.16°C set in January 1999. It was cooler than normal in much of eastern and central Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, but very warm over most of the remainder of the continent. Rainfall was above normal over most of eastern mainland Australia, but below normal over the remainder of the continent and in Tasmania.


(interesting that 1999 was also during a strong La Nina; Indonesia has also been very warm lately, also consistent with La Nina)

Another thing that irks me is how everybody says the current warming trend started around 1970, when in reality warming has continued for over a century (with natural cycles on top of it, resulting in periods of sharp warming and cooling - although not back to levels before the warm peaks; the global cooling myth link I posted also says that aerosols caused some of the cooling, it was also mainly in the Northern Hemisphere - which had its warmest year on record last year).
i'm going to the tropics chat to talk to myself if anyone wants to join me lol.
Eh. I just don't take the denialists' posts very seriously, as a lot are just ignorant. There are some with interesting posts and ideas, like sebastianjer, but most of them just post nonsense. However, I don't think they should be censored. Censoring ideas is just wrong.
Reminders:

1. GW is a CLIMATE trend (i. e. taking place over long periods of time - decades, centuries) as opposed to a WEATHER trend (taking place over short periods of time - like seasons or single years). One cold or hot winter / summer is not sufficient to verify or negate a climate trend.

2. Is the debate about whether global warming exists, or is it really about the CAUSE of global warming? I notice some people are not separating, i. e. are suggesting that global warming BY DEFINITION is a man-made phenomenon.

Comment:

Everybody has a right to an opinion, but I (and quite a few others on here) have a lot more respect for your expression thereof if you at least attempt to substantiate that opinion with whatever facts you find available to support your case. Slick comments, regardless of position, are cute but not impressive for the long term.

[sitting back to enjoy the debate]
Can we all agree that we are recording extreme weather?
Th past forty years has been benign and somewhat unusual compared to for example the "Dustbowl" years. (Candendro site shows numerous climate fluctuations logged back to the early 1800s.)
What is different today?
1)As mentioned: access to information
2)major increase in population (and property) in most areas resulting in greater casualties and damage.
3)the implied notion that now that we are getting some small understanding of global weather we should "Do something about it"
93. FLWeatherFreak91 12:18 PM GMT on February 10, 2008

The New NAM run is showing more activity. It gets worse on that model each run.

The 850 vort has a persistent little something near Cuba I think that is to contribute to the mess over south fla.



The global warming he said/she said is inane. If you have new data, present it and let us all move on. If you think you are being innovative just by being critical, that's been done, on much more stringent terms in the peer review process, over several years - and correctly, before it all made it to FOX or GMA or the movie set.

Reference only SCIENTIFIC literature when discussing it or just don't bother. Everything else is politics.
Experts blame snow disaster on La Nina, atmospheric circulation

www.chinaview.cn 2008-02-02 12:10:50 Print

Special Report: China's war on snow havoc

NANCHANG, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- The rare prolonged snowstorms and low temperatures that have caused havoc in many parts of China are mainly related to the La Nina phenomenon and abnormal atmospheric circulation, Chinese meteorologists said.

The severe weather strongly resembled the aftermath of La Nina events, which indicated that the latest development of La Nina was a primary cause of the abnormal snow, meteorologists at the Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau said.

La Nina is a large pool of unusually cold water in the equatorial Pacific that develops every few years and influences global weather. It is the climatic opposite of El Nino, which is a warming of the Pacific.

Experts said that the latest La Nina conditions developed last August throughout the tropical Pacific and strengthened at the sharpest pace in 56 years. The sea-surface temperature during the past six months was 0.5 degree Celsius lower than normal years.

"The La Nina weather pattern is expected to prevail at least till the end of spring," said Jiao Meiyan, director of the National Meteorological Center.

Chinese meteorologists also pointed out that the abnormal atmospheric circulation in some regions of Europe and Asia, which has persisted for nearly 20 days since mid-January, was responsible for the rampant chilly weather, rain and snowstorms.

Snow storms that hit 19 provinces in southern and central China, the worst in 50 years, have killed more than 60 people and forced nearly 1.8 million people to relocate over the past three weeks, inflicting economic losses of about 53.9 billion yuan (7.5 billion U.S. dollars), according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs on Friday.


119. JFLORIDA 10:22 PM GMT on February 10, 2008
Reference only SCIENTIFIC literature when discussing it or just don't bother. Everything else is politics.


lol, JFlorida! I'm assuming you mean the "ping pong" back and forth, the seemingly endless banter! I understand and agree, but "politics" is completely part of the debate and without it, pointless. Largely, it's more politics than any real "science" anyway!

As repeated earlier, "I" will post as I choose! You can hit simply hit the "ignore" button if you choose not to read my comments. I'll also add that myself and many others have posted countless, numerous "science-related" articles on the subject. So, it's not like any statement I make is purely from opinion without having read and studied the aspects of either side of the debate. However, I do understand and reflect your same sentiments! Thanks.

-- ycd0108, btw, excellent points in your post #118!

122. Inyo
Hmm, if that much forest got destroyed in China from a snowstorm, even an extreme one, there was probably something else going on. Perhaps the trees were planted by China and were not native and/or appropriate to the area.
It might just be because it is uncommon, it has been a long time since the last La Nina that was this strong. Of note is that the CMA was hinting at the possibility of a severe winter this year (Google HTML cache; Word document, with images):

3. Potential Climate impacts

The impact of La Nina event on China climate is obvious and it can cause severe disaster. The statistical analyses denote that Precipitations were likely to be excessive in the northern China during autumn of La Nina year, and the precipitations were excessive in the Huanghe and the Huai River basin during autumns, especially with 50% more than normal in the middle reach of the Huanghe River (Fig. 6). In addition, temperatures were below normal over most of China during the winter of La Nina year and severe cold air could cause big loss of crops in southern China.


One thing to note:

Meanwhile, most of statistical models of NCC also predicted a weak La Nina occurring in following months. La Nina events which happened during late summer-autumn since 1951 were weak mostly. Although some factors were unfavorable for the development of La Nina, in all it is possible for a weak La Nina to form.




Ooops...
moonlightcowboy 11:10 PM GMT on February 10, 2008

I don't ignore and I really don't believe in censorship unless it facilitates more open exchange.

But you should let your science and reasoning abilities be the reactionary force that modifies your politics -- and not the other way around.


MichaelSTL we know that:

Punxsutawney Phil SAID six more weeks of winter. (note photos)

Later Fox news will have a Coalition Against the Groundhog Agenda, counterpoint opinion maintaining that the groundhog conspiracy driving our weather prediction is actually a leftwing attack on American morals and values.
ListernerVT - beautiful --said so well!
124. JFLORIDA 11:55 PM GMT on February 10, 2008
But you should let your science and reasoning abilities be the reactionary force that modifies your politics -- and not the other way around.


What? More ping pong? Again, I'll post as I choose! I'm quite sure I'll post maturely and reasonably!

I'll post as I choose! I'm quite sure I'll post maturely and reasonably!

ping



GOOD! who could ask for anything more?

-- well perhaps the ability to change, move forward, learn new things and correct yourself when necessary.

pong

MLC, we are all here to censor you . . .

But seriously . . .

rhetoric without support is basically political filler. I like looking at more studies that quantify changes over time and take a more reasoned approach to the topic.

One reason why I continue to look at most of what is posted about the GW debate is that it keeps me looking at and learning about climate trends and issues that I might otherwise overlook. And while it may not seem to have anything to do with the ATL tropical season, I'm convinced a better understanding of the global weather system will help us solve some of the tropical prediction problems we continue to have each year.
Speaking about predicting the 2008 ATL season, anybody read anything else interesting from NHC et al. regarding season forecasts, forecasting techniques and technologies, etc?

A question for all

If a scientist promotes a position that is not only not scientifically verifiable but at the extremes of scientific theory is it science or is it politics?

JER
sebastianjer -- peer review, even passively, should catch it as politics, even and especially under informal conditions and in nontraditional venues.

Whats with the general atmosphere of cynicism? Cheer up! The truth prevails or science would stop moving forward.

That cant happen in an open environment.



In Art, where, if not subjectivity, then objectively Popular Culture is actually a valid movement AND consideration in deciding "validity."

Abstraction crosses all societal lines and subjects, and discerning innovation becomes a more complicated process by several orders of magnitude.
-- JFL, I learn all the time. I also correct myself very humbly! But, I also speak my convictions quite plainly and emphatically, too! Pong? That was too funny! Video games sure have come a long way since Atari!

-- Baha, censor me? LMAO, one has to get up early in the morning for that! (Of course, I don't usually post very much early in the morning!) lol.

But seriously, (lol) I waded in on this anthropogenic theory and did tons of reading. One can visit Ricky's blog and find numerous posts for several months where myself and many others have researched, read and debated the issue many times. In the beginning I was very open-minded, but have grown to be quite the skeptic as there is much refuting data. And, for those that haven't decided yet, well, I encourage some research. That's what did it for me - that and engaging in lively debate, too. Now, I simply don't believe in AGW and believe that it is in fact a scam driven by greed and power. Sure, we have responsibilities to the environment and to the human race collectively - that's not for debate. But, I'll not subscribe to theories with holes in them and false science. (btw, I always enjoy your posts)

-- JER, hey man! You know we've been down this road a few times. And the answer is you can't really have one without the other! But, science eventually validates itself through its processes and repeated verification - not when even a large group claims proved theory simply by consensus - real and true science just doesn't work that way!

The truth prevails or science would stop moving forward.

True, ultimately truth always wins out, I sincerely believe that. But try to convince the thousands of lobotomized patients of consensus science. If you know what a lobotomy is, it too was a popular scientific accepted procedure. People who criticized it were considered naysayers, uninformed or worse, even some of the best doctors of their time.

The consequences of this rush to judgment by scientific consensus is not the loss of our SUVs but already a shortage of food for the poorest people on earth. Every time anyone thinks the consequences of major CO2 reductions prior to reasonable in place alternatives is alright, check the price of corn, soybeans, etc on the world market. Those rises in prices and the effect it has on world food supply which most affects the poorest among us, are directly attributable to the AGW fear mongering as is propagated by the endorsement at the top of this page. IMHO

JER
sebastianjer 12:55

we have come a long way since lobotomies and im sure that there are ways to reduce emissions and spur innovations that, reduce pollution, dependence on unstable Oil producing ares and help all facets of world society.

The quick marketable political answers are generally the worst in all respects.

if you are talking about the "biofuels" mess and scam - I completely agree, but its a start, and criticism of the project will keep the spotlight on hunger and perhaps reduce consumption.

well off to the studio, night all.
134. JFLORIDA 1:00 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
...im sure that there are ways to reduce emmisions and spur innovations that, reduce pollution, dependence on unstable Oil producing ares and help all facets of world society.

The quick marketable political answers are generally the worst in all respects.


I know you addressed, Jer, here; but, your points are mostly very valid. And, I absolutely agree that we should be innovative and produce the technologies that are environmentally friendly and provides for a better world for all people.

In addition, again I agree, that a rush to "politically" manipulate economics or science is a mistake. However, in neither case, can the politics be left out. Those processes are fully involved by and with politics. No matter whether we think the politics is wrong or noble, it's simply the way it is and unfortunately must be. Again, that doesn't make it right - not by my standards, yours, or by the world's.

What keeps bothering me about all this "rush to eliminate oil" is that the most obvious alternative energy source - sunlight - seems to have been overlooked.

I am completely unconvinced that the technology to harvest and store solar energy cannot be better exploited. What about solar tiling on everything, instead of fancy paints? Oil is like an organic battery of million-year-old solar energy. If we are so intelligent, why can't we invent a rechargeable battery that compresses the energy and makes it available when we are ready for it?

All I'm saying is, there is a lot of "the sky is falling" rhetoric, but the people with the money don't want to put it where the talk is.

Now, I simply don't believe in AGW and believe that it is in fact a scam driven by greed and power.

I want to see utterly irrefutable data that says it doesn't exist and the observed warming is 100% natural (note that this doesn't mean that it is 100% man-made - anybody should realize that there are natural fluctuations, which is why global temperatures have been rising, but not steadily)... My view of this is, if you don't think we have had ANY impact, then why bother trying to be environmentaly friendly (in any way)?
i have noted that wind shear has drop 5 to 10kt today in the Central Atlantic a small part of the Central Atlantic that is

Link
Hey guys, I know this discussion on global warming is interesting (although global warming doesn't exist) BUT...have you guys been monitoring the comp, models bc it look like Tues-Wed are going to be fairly active from the midwest through s. fl
Hey, Freak.

Somebody mentioned that earlier today, with links to models as well. Looks like FL is in for some serious weather the next few days.

The front that hung about over FL the past couple days went through here with nary a drop over the capital, so far, anyway. Maybe we'll get some overnight showers.
STL, there's been countless refuting of this in Ricky's blog by myself and many others. The "burden of proof" is on the ones trying to prove ACO2, yet countless refutable data and other qualified scientists are not signing on to the IPCC's inconclusive findings.

No one is necessarily saying that there isn't any warming, but rather the "science is not in" that says that man is causing it. There have been many agreed upon periods of even catastrophic warming periods before man ever started the first combustion engine.

As far as why do anything? Well, obviously, I think at some point resources run out, unless they're quickly renewable resources. Oil is certainly not one of them. I can assure that within three feet of where you sit, nearly everything you can touch is the product of oil. And, that's scary! Now, imagine that supply totally cut off! Economies would totally collapse. And, yes, that's scare tactics, too. But, man, even with all of his power and greed struggles, is indeed innovative and while not omnipotent, generally man will find a way to survive.

And, that may indeed be all this is really about - a conditioning to adaptation to different resources and dependence - and not by just consumers, but by producers and the wealth it has to maintain not only for greed, but for profits to keep the economic machines running. What a great place it would be that if tomorrow suddenly "free energy" were unlocked and available to us all! Or would it? Think of the 1,000,000's of job loss, etc. Mitigation and adaptation are simply eloquent words to describe what would be an almost unfathomable and upsetting transformation and transition that would be. When you think it about it really, one could almost conclude that the technology already exists, but its release is being quite conditioned and the political process is being manipulated on a scale none of us can really comprehend!

although global warming doesn't exist

LOL... I suppose this is fake then?



Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

The global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005.[1] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations"[1] via the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward.


The last is also interesting to note...
-- Baha, I think you're right. It's almost unimaginable to believe we're not able to harness the sun's energy! Plus, I believe history and science soon will conclude that ACO2 is really not the problem that we're being told it is. In fact, the sun plays the largest part in our climate and always will.
There have been many agreed upon periods of even catastrophic warming periods before man ever started the first combustion engine.

Yes - due to natural cycles, like variations in the orbit of the Earth (and are usually slow, with cooling generally being faster; CO2 also amplifies these cycles, thus why temperatures rise rapidly and fall slowly, instead of rising and falling in a smooth curve, following orbital variations). As far as I know, the Earth's orbit has not drastically changed recently, and solar activity peaked in the 1950s (according to this)...

And anybody who really thinks it is a global scam of biblical proportions sounds like the kind of person who thinks the Earth being round is in the same category, despite a lot of scientific evidence...
JFlorida RE 134

Lobotomies took place in my lifetime, I am old but not that old, lol. A long ways is a relative term.

Would not the more prudent and far reaching answer to this perceived problem be an international agreement on R&D of alternative energy sources? Why in the world would you want to harm the economies of the countries most able to afford and technologically advanced enough to provide such long term solutions?

Personally I do not believe that there is a crisis, or even a serious problem, however the solutions that are being promoted by the IPCC, Al Gore, etc. do more harm than good! The first maxim should be the same as for doctors "First do no harm." This nonsense is not going to protect the planet, it's going to cause genocide, which in some warped way would save the planet.

The better the standard of living, the longer people live. The more prosperous a country, the cleaner they become, because they can afford to take care of themselves better in both cases.
Do you even comprehend the advances in pollution control the United States and the western democracies have made just in the last 40 years?

Unless we are willing to cut the world's population growth in half over the coming century, the solution is in technological advances, not in crippling or redistributing the world's economic growth.

If, big if, cataclysmic affects of hypothetical extreme global warming occur, what would the long term (century) death toll be as a result?
If we cut CO2 emissions enough to forestall this hypothetical cataclysm what will the death toll be?

Pretty terrible questions to be even asking, but if the world is on the brink of disaster, don't you think the portrayer's of doom ought to at least give us some stats on that? Rather than promote political scientist who make a bundle on unrealistic documentary(?) that are nothing more than science fiction. To think that National Geographic used to be the standard for American natural sciences, shameful. The author has even admitted it is an unrealistic portrayal and yet it is being promoted on this site as if it is somehow important, shameful. IMO

JER
Ok Michael STL...That graph that you showed does show that the Earth is in fact warming. But did anyone happen to check the scale on the graph. It ranges a mere 1.2 degrees over more than 50 years. The mini ice age of the late medieval times showed a temperature change of over 4 degrees in less than 10 years and some scientists believe over the entire span of the ice age temps ranged upwards of 10 degrees. I shame all of you who believe that we humans have any power over Nature and her affects. The Earth has been going through small temperature cycles through its entire life, and we just happen to be witnessing one of them now. In 200 years from now governments will be campaigning toward voluntary ejection of co2 into the atmosphere TO WARM US UP! No matter what we do on Earth, the big picture of climate will not be affected. Everything balances.
I found the following interesting, especially in view of the recent reading I have done on ENSO's effects on the ATL tropical cyclone season, particularly in the La Nina phase:

Also in La Ninas, losses from springtime flooding and from summer droughts and hurricanes typically are much greater than normal. Flooding in La Nina years averages nearly $4.5 billion compared to an average of $2.4 billion. Hurricane related losses in La Nina years average $5.9 billion compared to an average of $3 billion.
Take for example the 1998/99 La Nina. Hurricanes Bonnie, Georges, Dennis, Floyd, Irene and Harvey made landfall in the two summers with well over $13 billion in damages. Major tornado outbreaks occurred in January 1999 in Arkansas and Tennessee and in May in Oklahoma and Kansas with $2.3 billion in damages. The summer of 1999's heat wave and drought in the east central states added over $1 billion in losses. The total losses from La Nina related storms and lack of storms in 1998 and 1999 exceeded $16 billion.


What is interesting is that climatologically speaking, it's the ENSO neutral periods that have the highest correlations with hurricane strikes and damage, especially to the US, which this article seems to be highlighting. While ATL storm seasons tend to be more active during La Nina years when compared with El Nino, '98/'99 was not a particularly typical ENSO- year. If anything, last year, with its relatively low landfall pattern, seems to be more of a standard.

NOTE: Even in the mentioned years, the "big" hurricane news was not in the US but, as we saw this year, in Central America [i.e. Mitch]. Also, was 2004 a La Nina year?
Man-made GW is non-provable......It's a tactic that has crept into science that says WE are to blame so the upper 10% of society can control us even more......Dont believe me?......showing me a graph doesnt prove anything....I bet those that declare this is solid science dont even consider the other side.....That's what I call BIAS...

So Michael, I suggest you lobby the admin on WUG to make YOU an admin...then you can ban the "denialists"...
I shame all of you who believe that we humans have any power over Nature and her affects.

Can you prove that CO2 and other greenhouse gasses are not really greenhouse gasses (i imagine that it is very easy to check, see if they absorb infrared wavelengths, as emitted by warm objects, and in the range emitted by the Earth)? I think it is totally absurd to think that what we have observed is 100% natural. I shame people who don't think that we can have any effect on the Earth...
Composition of dry atmosphere by volume ppmv: parts per million by volume

Gas Volume

Nitrogen (N2)----780,840 ppmv (78.084%)
Oxygen (O2)------209,460 ppmv (20.946%)
Argon (Ar)-------------9,340 ppmv (0.9340%)
Carbon D. (CO2)------383 ppmv (0.0383%)
Neon (Ne)----------------18.18 ppmv
Helium (He)---------------5.24 ppmv
Methane (CH4)-----------1.745 ppmv

Of course, all of these combined is but a mere fraction of the single largest GHG(greenhouse gas), water vapor.

uh oh i see where this is going

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

...CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...



THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUTLINED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...SO NOT MUCH TO ADD EXCEPT THAT IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORNADIC ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND THE
SHEAR PROFILE ARE FAVORABLE. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

I'll take the rain without the severe weather.Unfortunately it looks like things could get interesting in some areas across florida mid week.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Water vapor... LOL


I had a graph that showed that CO2 and methane do not absorb the same wavelengths as water vapor (which is pretty much saturated at this point, seeing that it is so common and eventually it cannot absorb anymore, unless the atmosphere somehow became more dense - which is a reason why Venus-like runaway warming hasn't occurred and cannot occur on Earth). That is the important thing (and if CO2 or the others aren't greenhouse gasses, to any effect, then why is Venus so hot? It isn't that close to the Sun).
where not going to start a fight on global warming are we ??? beter yet whats not talk about global warming at all so far this blog has been global warming free whats keep it that way
yes it does 23. it looks like we are going to get interesting weather
151. Tazmanian 8:27 PM CST on February 10, 2008
uh oh i see where this is going


Right Taz - this belongs in the blog that was put up for this kind of stuff...
Yeah..we cant do it but you can! No mr general!!

LOL... quasimodo...

The only time I ever post about global warming in this blog is to attack those who oppose my views...
if where going to talk about global warming there sould be some rules global warming talk can olny go so far be for it starts to turn in to a fight then next thing you no your ban from the blog i i think we sould think up with some rules if where going to start talking about global warming
Dr. M
Posted an endorsement of a National Geographic Special on Global Warming

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

I believe that global warming was introduced by Dr. M in the blog entry, if the Admin feels otherwise, please advise.
dont start you two
Oh, boy...I'm really LOL!
yes last year but it is not the topic this year and its not the topic right now
yes sir mike......People are entitled to their opinions...no one has proof of man-made GW.....You have shown no proof.....just bits and pieces of historical FLAWED data!

I never said that GW doesnt exist(I said it was unprovable)....I said man-made GW isnt sensible and does not exist...
STOP
are you 2 looking for a 24hr ban???
WE'RE JUST STARDUST! I borrowed the pics from LakeWorthFinn's blog. The scale is amazing. And, for us to think that our small, trite selves compare to the cosmic elements that influence us, is asking a bit much I think. I'm sure we have an effect on our planet, but I'm also quite certain that there are so many influences on Earth beyond our control that it's unimaginable. Now, I wonder how tiny and insignificant the little island of Bali was and how tiny the IPCC's findings are in the grand scheme of things. Comparatively insignificant! Yet, we find it harder to get along and harder to find basic truths. If we should attempt to rise to such greatness, I pray that it's with humble heart! It's not ACO2, that much is easy to see!







When I saw this, all I could think was just...W O W! Yep, I think we play a big part in all this! (not, lol)
can you Please re move that photo
Bitter Cold, Whiteouts Hit Upper Midwest
Feb 10, 3:10 PM (ET)

By The Associated Press

It was so cold Sunday in the Upper Midwest, and visibility was so poor in blowing snow, that church services were called off in parts of Michigan. At noon, thermometers in one North Dakota town still registered only 20 below zero.
The windy, bitterly cold weather blanketed a region from the Dakotas across much of Minnesota into Wisconsin and Michigan. Subzero temperatures at midday extended into northern Iowa, the National Weather Service said.

Snow whipped up by the bitingly cold wind created hazardous driving conditions Sunday in Michigan. State Police said the 5-mile-long Mackinac Bridge was closed because of whiteout conditions, and the sheriff's office in southwest Michigan's Cass County said visibility was less than 20 feet.
Churches across western Michigan canceled services, The Grand Rapids Press reported.

"The road conditions are just terrible. There's been slide-offs all over and the roads are very icy," said William Marino, a weather service meteorologist in Grand Rapids.

Snow drifts also closed some roads in Wisconsin and Michigan, police said.

Sunday's Lansing Polar Plunge charity benefit, in which people were to jump into the cold water at Hawk Island County Park, was reset to Feb. 24, the Lansing State Journal reported. Sunday's midday temperature there was only zero, but the wind chill was 23 below zero, the weather service said.

However, the weather couldn't keep Wisconsin sturgeon spearers away from frozen lakes on Sunday, the second day of the state's spearing season.

Terry Gerhartz, of Chilton, Wis., said he made sure not to have any exposed skin when he went to his fish shanty on Lake Winnebago. "If you got stuck out there, you'd get cold in a hurry," Gerhartz, 48, said as he warmed up at a restaurant in Hilbert.

Sunday's noon reading at Devils Lake, N.D., was 20 below, with a wind chill of minus 38, the weather service said. On Saturday, the town warmed to a high of 13 below - with a wind chill of minus 42.

International Falls, Minn., the Canadian border city that's won the trademark of "Icebox of the Nation," was only 15 degrees below zero by noon Sunday, but the wind chill was a painful 40 below.

Taz.....I like the picture....It just shows how absurd man-made GW is!!!!!LOLOLOLOL
this blog is about Tornados not global warming can we get back on track evere one
and that photo dos not go with the blog can you Please re move it
You know Vort the weather this year reminds me of when I was a kid. Seems like winters were always like this in the 60's

JER
give it a rest already
your so smart ur stupid
What was THAT all about.

Moonlight even if You cannot taste the Alcohol the hangover is going to still be just as bad. Why should everyone have to share it?

Whats the big deal? Both the CIA and DOD have reported and AGREED on global warming and see it as a threat to US security. Something that didn't even happen with Iraq. And we dumped how much into that hole? The White House even has to censor government scientists not to talk on global warming. You deniers are not showing much courage towing the PR line.

If there was valid scientific dissent don't you think the "Slam Dunk" White House would be leading a parade with it??? I mean come on, what is this really all about?

Why are you not for full and open SCIENTIFIC discussion?

Ref-

Apocalyptic Pentagon report on global warming could spur action on Capitol Hill

What do the CIA, the Pentagon and the UN Have in Common?
TAZ....go read Jeff Master's header again....Here's part of it:
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Sunday at 8pm EST (9pm PST), there promises to be an interesting show on the National Geographic Channel called Six Degrees, which explores what might happen to the Earth for each degree of warming up to six degrees centigrade. The program is based on the book by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Fourth Estate, 2007). According to a review of this book posted by climate scientist Eric Steig at realclimate.org, "Mark Lynas will no doubt be pleased that I very much like the book. To be sure, it is alarming, but the question of whether it is alarmist is a more difficult one..."


The rules say post whatever the blog topic is about......Part of it is about GW!
You know Vort the weather this year reminds me of when I was a kid. Seems like winters were always like this in the 60's

JER


I've been thinking the same thing Jer. This is how I remember the winters back then.

Anyway I'm out for the night.
See ya tomorrow.
JFlorida

Who said we did not want an open discussion? Why do you call us deniers, is that an insult or something? Are all the many scientist who disagree with AGW somehow contemptible? Please explain

JER
So seriously, why is the government squashing discussion on warming but not offering ANY valid counter research?

Why people? Rush Limbaugh and Investors Business Daily deserve better.
Night Vort
Have a good one
JER
177. JFLORIDA 2:50 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Why are you not for full and open discussion?


Hey, I'm all for it. Been doing it for months. But, some folks just can't openly discuss things without the antics - ref post #159 and so forth. I haven't called anyone names or called anyone ignorant, etc. I've got a few minutes. But, this gets really old.

How about "faulty" (quite possibly fraudulent) data used by the IPCC to support their conclusions!

Chinese Temperature Data Now Tainted

THE FRAUD ALLEGATION AGAINST SOME CLIMATIC
RESEARCH OF WEI-CHYUNG WANG

by Douglas J. Keenan

Wei-Chyung Wang has been a respected researcher in global warming studies for decades. I have formally alleged that he committed fraud in some of his research, including research cited by the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) on "urban heat islands" (a critical issue). Herein, the allegation is reviewed, and some of its implications are explicated.

INTRODUCTION
The work of Jones et al. (1990) is a significant paper in global warming studies (see below for details). In February 2007, Stephen McIntyre blogged about evidence he had found showing that it was "impossible" for Jones et al. to have carried out their work as they had claimed.

1 An anonymous comment on the blog then indicated potential issues with the closely-related work of Wang et al. (1990).

2 Further study by myself found additional evidence of problems. The evidence particularly implicates Wei-Chyung Wang - the lead author of Wang et al. and a co-author of Jones et al.
Wang is a professor at the University at Albany, State University of New York.
He has been doing research on climate for over 30 years, and he has authored or coauthored
more than 100 peer-reviewed scientific papers. He has also received an Appreciation Plaque from the Office of Science in the U.S.A., commending him, "For your insightful counsel and excellent science." The plaque resulted in particular from his research on global warming.

I have written a Report that details evidence that Wang committed scientific fraud.

3 The Report was submitted to the University at Albany in August 2007, and a formal inquiry into research misconduct is now underway.....

.....Indeed, for anyone familiar with Mao's Great Leap Forward and the Cultural
Revolution, the claim to have obtained substantial reliable data for 1954-1983 makes
little sense.

During the Great Leap Forward, tens of millions of people are believed to have died, but it is not known how many tens of millions. And official records of grain harvests were often substantially exaggerated: this was not generally considered fraud, but instead making the records conform with "socialist reality". During the Cultural Revolution, schools and universities were shut down and many intellectuals were beaten, internally exiled, or killed for being too bourgeois, and there was sometimes near-anarchy, especially in urban areas. Even as late as 1980, censuses were so poor that China's population was only known to within about 100 million.

Complete Report.
i wish the real Alec was back
180. quasigeostropic 6:55 PM PST on February 10, 2008
If you want this GW debate to stop ask Michael "the Intolerable" to get us "denialists" banned!! Then you all can have a party!
Action: | Ignore User



well dont take it here take it to your own blog
hello taz
So seriously, why is the government squashing discussion on warming

I think a bigger problem is how all of America's rights are going down the tubes......You dont believe me? Then just wait for the national ID card, microchips, martial law, etc....then America will wake up.....Anything that hurts the govt power will be censored....Especially if there are those that believe GW ISNT man-made!!!

175. sebastianjer 8:49 PM CST on February 10, 2008
You know Vort the weather this year reminds me of when I was a kid. Seems like winters were always like this in the 60's


You can thank La Nina:

Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


Just a year ago we had this:

Warmest winter in history, world wide, success in prediction again, still a lot of mystery to unravel

World wide WARMEST JANUARY in History

NH warmest temperature anomaly ever

EH2r predictions on a very good track for the warmest winter in history, world wide the temperature anomaly for January was 1.04 C, warmest anomaly ever for the world

Why?

El Nino!

But... why were there record temperatures? Warmer than any other winter or January (I believe one or two other months last year were the warmest on record as well, as well as land temperatures, which took longer to feel the cooling from La Nina).
So seriously, why is the government squashing discussion on warming

They obviously don't want to face the truth, so they force scientists to water down their research.
Yeah.....scapegoat el nino and la nina! Have a good night.....Dont let the media and mainstream thinking cloud your abilities to think for yourselves!...Michael, become a police officer then you can arrest all those denialists!!!
Chinese Temperature Data Now Tainted

THE FRAUD ALLEGATION AGAINST SOME CLIMATIC
RESEARCH OF WEI-CHYUNG WANG


Are you kidding - this disproves GW???
Hello Taz..Im back online..and out of the FEMA trailer.
hey pat
hello keeper
Hey, Pat!!! Good to see you back, friend! I know things must be good for you now. I knew they would and I'm happy for you! :)
Hey MLC..things are 100% here..and getting better everyday now. Thanks
The winter hasn't been very unsual around here:



At least not compared to recent winters (overall), except for more snow (well, a lot more - but it has also been much wetter, unlike the dry winters the last few years) and much greater temperature variability, some of the greatest that I have ever seen (one day went from 73 to 11).
JF, it only proves that the IPCC is not as "reputable" as they'd have us believe. Plus, the majority (really, their sole evidence) of their findings were based on surface temperatures that can't really be called "scientific." When data from the satellites, which have only been up a few years, support the prospects that might be different.

It doesn't matter what the models say or attempt to say about anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Simply because the UN's IPCC recommendations for reducing emissions ONLY applies to developed countries such as the US. There is only a short list of "developed" countries where restrictions and taxation apply.

But, there are many more "developing" countries that are simply not required to reduce their emissions. In fact, in China's economic boom, new coal-fired energy plants are going online at the rate of one per week! The UN is actually encouraging output of ACO2 by not placing any restrictions on them at all and rewarding them for producing ACO2 and other gases as well.

So, it doesn't matter what we or the US or similar "developed" countries do to reduce emissions for the planet - because the rest of the world is busy re-supplying the atmosphere with more anthropogenic CO2.

There is no way (in my opinion) that if we tried our hardest and spent tons of money on infrastructure and sequestration to reduce emissions, that we could keep pace with the ACO2 output of the rest of the world.

The UN has been feeding us Kool-Aid to stave off the supposed looming, imminent warming cataclysm in which millions will die. Yet, the very people they claim will die are the very ones they are continuing to reward for "warming" the planet!

So, anthropogenic global warming is a fallacy, a hoax, a fraud - does NOT exist. If we were all in such imminent doom the UN should be trying to rally the "entire" world to stop the warming, not just the few that they are attempting to ransom for money in the name of saving humanity and the environment.

just waitin on 00 z runs good to here u are out of the trailer u in a house or apartment now
All things are relative..especially weather..to an observer.Here..the winter has been a cold one. Kinda like what normal is for New Orleans,weather wise for winter.
stl i think the problem is when people see normal they think it abnormal cause its been a long time since we had a normal winter
good evening everyone,have any of you know where the severe weather expected for florida next week will be located(north florida or south florida)
Pat, so glad to hear that, man! So glad. Soon, we'll get to catch up. Hey, and btw, I'm closer that way now, and soon, well, maybe we'll get to share that cold one, soon. Maybe coming down that way later in the week even! Take care man!

Ya'll, I almost enjoyed the AGW discussion! It was a bit fun, but I'm out - tired and got to work big time tomorrow! I hope everyone has a good week! :)

Well..were all moved out of the trailer and living in a statly Home Uptown.Were really very happy about it.Like being reborn again.
yamil over the panhadle towards ne with a second area bubbling up over se as it moves over and off ne fla
An interesting story Link
no more rollin in the wind in that thing good
imminent warming cataclysm in which millions will die.

Die from what? If that is your view, then I can see why you have such a problem with it... No reputable scientists have said that the human race is going to be wiped out or anything... maybe the media (which always hypes things to sell, whether it is global warming or not, even global cooling) and Hollywood movies, but those are sci-fi (I mean, look at the Day After Tomorrow).
thanks for your info keeperofthegate
Dust storms are most common at sea during winter, and the scientists were able to locate where they might occur by using satellite images provided by Neodaas (Nerc Earth Observation Data Acquisition and Analysis Service), tracing wind patterns as they came off of the Sahara and computer model predictions.

I wonder if there have been any unusual dust storms recently; the central Atlantic has been cooling (although right off Africa it is well above normal, +3*C, also warmer in the Gulf and off the East Coast, all compared to last year, SST anomaly map). And I recall that last year was the dustiest since 1999, possible a connection to La Nina there (although in 1999 SSTs warmed up from below average levels instead of cooling into hurricane season).
Thanks for reading my link Michael :)
Re 207

That is a very interesting article Saint. Hate to point out the obvious though, here is a statement from one of the scientist,

"If we understand how the dust functions here, we will have a better idea of how the ecosystem in the North Atlantic takes up carbon dioxide, how quickly it takes it up and how this changes over time."

How can they model future affect of CO2 on climate specifically temperatures, if we do not know the answer to this very basic question?
If we do not know how much and at what rate Co2 is absorbed in the oceans and how it changes over time, based on the simplest of all influences, Sahara sand how can we determine how it is going to remain in the atmosphere given many variables?

For example, let's say global warming causes the Sahara to grow, as some predict, which causes more dust to be deposited in the Atlantic. This according to the article will cause an increase in the plankton, which will absorb more CO2. Does it reach an equilibrium?
It seems like it must at some point, but what point? But the question I have, is how can the climate models possibly even begin to account for this and a thousand other even more important variables? I don't believe they can, as Lat would say, it's all just guesses.

JER
Well that's why scientists have to study and find out Jer :) Although the Mauna Loa Keeling curve shows a slowly accelerating rise for CO2 that continues pretty steadily.

Oh Michael you asked if there were unusual dust storms recently. Here you go Link
So true Saint

At what point does the temperature not keeping up with CO2 look suspicious though? :) Hope you have a safe trip

JER
hey keep and pat


welcome back pat
I have a question for weather radio users, my alert radio activates in the middle of the night when we are having a winter storm warning, 12 hours in advance. Thats right the storm doesn't arrive until 12 hours after, the NWS sets off the alert radios. The last three times the NWS set off the radios were 3:15a, 3:31a, and 4:15a. I thought these radio alerts were to warm people a tornado was approaching them and for people to take cover. This is totally B.S. in my opionion. Now my family wants to shut down the alert radio, because it activates 14 to 24 hours in advance of a snowfall, they do have a point. Am I dealing with an overzelous forcaster, or am I just crying because these radios do not re-set themselves. I would like comment from other in here. Feel free. Oh by the way the NWS office that sets these alert radios off is in Indianapolis, We do have tornados here too! it's inportant to have the radios.
davidw221....Obviously I don't know what type radio you have...but some models are programmable so that you can filter out the alerts you do not want to receive and allow for only the ones you choose.
Good afternoon from Northern Ireland.

Sorry to hear about that terrible breakout of tornadoes.

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!
Good afternoon from Northern Ireland.

Sorry to hear about that terrible breakout of tornadoes.

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!
...FLORIDA...
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT. BUT...A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF/CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PENINSULA
EITHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


La Nina will have cooling effect on mid level jet. Could be the a major factor in triggering severe wx over FL. The airmass that was keeping us so warm is not far south of the keys, colder air not far north too. If all factors meet and timing is right, this will be big storm for FL.
Yes Ivan...I'm seeing this to be a big storm as well, but where in Fl do you see the highest potential for severe weather? Usually I would say further north, yet with this storm it appears there will be an extreme amount of pre-frontal moisture which could trigger severe weather further south. What do you think?
QPF for Tuesday (tomorrow):


Photobucket


If all factors meet and timing is right, this will be big storm for FL.

Usually I would say further north, yet with this storm it appears there will be an extreme amount of pre-frontal moisture which could trigger severe weather further south. What do you think?

I think its a little to early to tell at this point until the system gets closer to Florida tommorow (in terms of where the most impact will be) and it will be rather complex situation to predict as several factors are in play; there is also the possibility that it will only be a t-storm/rain event, with no severe weather as well, so I think it will be touch and go........The bottom line is that we always need as much rain as possible this time of the year and a best case scenario (for South Florida) would be lots of rain around Lake O so that the resevior can replenish as much as possible in light of potential drought areas down there as we start getting into Spring.............
Thanks guys. I'm just North of Tampa so I'll keep watch.
Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.

To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.

And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.

In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.

A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.

"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."

The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.
From the Max Planck Institute:

"However, researchers at the MPS have shown that the Sun can be responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the last 20-30 years. They took the measured and calculated variations in the solar brightness over the last 150 years and compared them to the temperature of the Earth. Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for roughly the first 120 years, the Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time."

...

"Just how large this role is, must still be investigated, since, according to our latest knowledge on the variations of the solar magnetic field, the significant increase in the Earth’s temperature since 1980 is indeed to be ascribed to the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide," says Prof. Sami K. Solanki, solar physicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research.

re: 213

Sebastianjer:

As a matter of fact, if you look at the CO2 historical charts, they go way down in northern hemisphere summer (where majority of land masses with significant plant life are) and each winter they go up progressively.

Your question could actually be a part of the answer as to why the poles are warming at a faster rate. The equilibrium that you postulate is part of the unknown...

...could increased dust REDUCE hurricanes (but the warm waters would make the ones that did form doozies?)

...could global warming disrupt the "conveyor belt" and cause a northern hemisphere ice age?


The fact that there may be contraverting properties that are unaccounted for does not disprove manmade global warming, though. It just means that maybe the effects won't be the lineal effects predicted, but may go in an unforseen direction.
Morning all :~)

Good to see everyone. Just getting over the flue here...Arghh...Hope no one else has had to deal with this mess. Ran through the family here...

Anywho, Interesting article mgreen...Saw GatorGrrl post on the same subject a week or two ago.

I do think that as our masses grow so does the strain we put on our environment. That said, we should take efforts to improve our energy usage and production efficiency. As well as being very cautious as to how we use our other resources. Example being, if this global cooling does take place, our energy consumption will no doubt go up. How long until we exhaust oil supplies?

All of this does go to show how little we understand about our environment and how quickly what we think we understand can change, and all of this is part of what makes our Pale Blue Dot so fascinating...

Ok, off my soap box, and off to enjoy the wunderful day before this couple of days of weather move in.

Y'all have a great day ☺

Quick Links-Imagery, forecast models, wind data, and much more all from one easy to navigate page.
StormW

Is it unusual for the A/B high to be anchored in the area its normally located during summer time? Could that possibly affect the potential tracking of tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season?
Depends on exact track of Low and timing. My guess is North of Lake O but this one of those rare ones that could hit S.Fl as hard as everybody else. I am usually skeptical of trailing cold fronts bringing major rain south of Orlando but this is the low itself and has several ingeredients that if mixed right could make this one stronger. It is all timing now. Worth watching for whole peninsula. (I am usually the last one expect major weather event during S.Fl winter.)


The question for this storm is how much cold dry air does it wrap around to push into the warm air ahead of it. Daytime heating could play a role too. It is all timing and track.
240. V26R
But exactly what does Ivans Cat say about this situation???
The developing low in the Gulf of Mexico is really getting its act together. Tampa could be in for a rough ride tomorrow evening. Everyone in the state should make sure their weather radios are on tonite before going to bed.
It does look pretty good and a good chunk of Florida will get, at a minimum, some much needed rain over the next few days......

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS SEVERE WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

From this morning's HWO for Tampa-

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMBINES WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED ALL
OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER
ZONE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...
IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY TUE EVENING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES.

PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
JUST ISSUED

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A
VERY ACTIVE...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...WEATHER SITUATION BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
INTO THE GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOSING DEFINITION AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE LOW HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT MORE THAN THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE GIVING IT CREDIT. IN EITHER CASE THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A GREAT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO FORM
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. IF THE GULF LOW HOLDS TOGETHER
BETTER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE.
THIS SITUATION IS BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW
STREAKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MID AND LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANING
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ALL OF THE AREA REMAINS PAINTED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HERE IS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC...THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXIST ACROSS FL...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM
THE GULF NEWD INTO THE REGION. GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WIND FIELDS MAY EVEN SUPPORT A POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT...A LINE OF STORMS MAY REACH THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
We have lots of wind today in Tampa.
afternoon all,hope everyone is doing well,looks like Florida is in for some rough times.
223. balmyhammy 2:54 PM EET on February 11, 2008
...

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!


Greetings from Finland, balmyhammy. Did you also have a very cloudy and warm start of the year in N Ireland? I just checked my weather records for Helsinki this year and I found out that the last day without any precipitation was January 5 (!) and the last day I saw the sun was briefly on January 30. In addition to that January was too warm here. The average daily high was 3°C too warm and the daily low even 5. Last week (February 4-10) has been the warmest compared to the 40 year average, max. 5.9 and min. 9.5°C too warm.

Ice cover of the Baltic sea is at an all-time low: Link (graphic on the left depicts the current condition, on the right the normal condition, grey areas are ice, thickness in cm. The western coastline belongs to Sweden, the eastern to Finland, the easternmost tip to Russia and the southern to Estonia)
Today it was discussed on the radio that it could be the first time that most of Finland's coast will stay icefree the entire winter since the insolation will increase as we are nearing March and after that a stable ice cover cannot form anymore. So no hiking on the frozen sea this year :(

Btw, when talking about the influence of the sun, thanks a lot to mgreen and SydOpus for your input about the solar cycle etc. Really interesting contribution to the ongoing discussion. From the Scandinavian point of view the "big bad word" global warming seems absolutely plausible - bearing in mind the inexistent winter here - but it is always good to be reminded of other factors like the sun which can change the climate on a much larger scale in a short time. Let's just hope that the solar activity remains more or less stable.