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Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on October 18, 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters
Pink Snow
Pink Snow
The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!
The Snowy Poconos
The Snowy Poconos
Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. xcool
Link

new models....1111



1002. Grothar
Quoting Meteorology101:


WOW, thansk for being such a father figure for me on here, Grother.


No problem. You will be fine. What time is the new ECMWF supposed to come out? It is after 7:30 am here. I shall have to go to work soon. Could you keep me informed?
1003. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That outer band is about to hit me.


Where are you weatherwater12?
That blob looks as if it is getting bigger all the time.
Quoting Grothar:


Where are you weatherwater12?
That blob looks as if it is getting bigger all the time.

I'm in Jamaica.
Quoting xcool:
Link

new models....1111




Thank you, CMC, check te>
Of course I will. It comes out by 3am. 9am your time.
1008. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I'm in Jamaica.


Hope it misses you. Getting any rain from it now? It is hard to tell on the maps, if it is just high clouds or precipitation!
Quoting Grothar:


Hope it misses you. Getting any rain from it now? It is hard to tell on the maps, if it is just high clouds or precipitation!

No rain right now, but this morning was very overcast.
1010. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Link

new models....1111





Appears as if the CMC is picking up on it. Perhaps the others will as well.
1011. Grothar
Quoting Meteorology101:
Of course I will. It comes out by 3am. 9am your time.


You can always leave the messages off-blog. I can get to them, but now always on here. It would be much appreciated.
1012. xcool
Grothar yeah
Quoting Grothar:


ROFLMAO TWICE!!! It is Ok, she would laugh harder than I. She has the best sense of humor in the world.


We were writing at the same time. As far as the blob goes, it looks impressive, but I don't think it will amount to anything major..
Ike at night:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1016. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

No rain right now, but this morning was very overcast.


What was the last "BIG ONE" that hit Jamaica. I can not recall. Was it recent?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Could the WRF be picking up on

absolutely

>
Quoting Grothar:


What was the last "BIG ONE" that hit Jamaica. I can not recall. Was it recent?

The closest pass by a catagory 4 was a few miles south of the island and was either Ivan 150mph (2004) and Dean 100+ (2007)
1019. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Could the WRF be picking up on something


I had friends in Spanishtown during 1985 and they lost their home. I believe there were a couple that hit then. Was there anything more recent?
1020. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The closest pass by a catagory 4 was a few miles south of the island and was either Ivan 150mph (2004) and Dean 100+ (2007)


How can I have forgotten about Ivan? Must be old age creeping up on me.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW IS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE WAVE AXIS
CENTERED NEAR 12N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES ALOFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 77W-84W.... From the TWD 2 a.m.Link
People In Luzon, Philippines are bracing for the coming of typhoon Lupit and praying it wont touch land. There would be more death if it does. We here in the Cebu also preparing in case lupit changes its path. It is sunny here but it is like a calm before the storm.
1023. Grothar
Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 15.093N 75.064W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 19 Oct 2009 05:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.7 F

There is begining to be a slight pressure fall for the first time. Anyone have information on any surface low?
1024. Grothar
Quoting YelloworangeRose:
People In Luzon, Philippines are bracing for the coming of typhoon Lupit and praying it wont touch land. There would be more death if it does. We here in the Cebu also preparing in case lupit changes its path. It is sunny here but it is like a calm before the storm.


Cebu Island is in the central Philippines, is it not? Where do they expect Lupit to make landfall. If I remember, Cebu is a highly developed area.
1025. xcool


1026. Grothar


here is the current heading. It would appear to be headed to the same area as the others. I hope for your sake and your fellow countrymen it does not.
Quoting Grothar:
Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 15.093N 75.064W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 19 Oct 2009 05:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.7 F

There is begining to be a slight pressure fall for the first time. Anyone have information on any surface low?

The closest Honduras station stopped reporting 6 hours ago.
:) t-minus 30 minutes guys
1029. Grothar


Perhaps this should make you feel better. Your country has been through a lot. I have always enjoyed my visits to your country and their friendly people. I don't know how many people in the U.S. know how much your country sacrificed for us during World War II. Those who remember are still grateful. I wish you well.
1030. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The closest Honduras station stopped reporting 6 hours ago.


What happened, did it sink?
It appears that chances are growing for the possibility of a late season Storm/Hurricane in the Western Carribean as the GFS is now returning to the solution. Waiting on the EURO...
Quoting Grothar:


What happened, did it sink?


You're such a tender soul, Grothar.
1033. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
It appears that chances are growing for the possibility of a late season Storm/Hurricane in the Western Carribean as the GFS is now returning to the solution. Waiting on the EURO...


REED! What are you doing up so late. How have you been. You were the first person with whom I communicated on this blog. Meterology101 is waiting for the 3:00 am advisory. What do you think of this blob?
Quoting reedzone:
It appears that chances are growing for the possibility of a late season Storm/Hurricane in the Western Carribean as the GFS is now returning to the solution. Waiting

welcome onboard by friend.on. are you here to keep myself and my good gothar company untl 3? and yes, the gfs is back onboard. i get the feeling that the deathcasters are gonna be in store for a rude awekaning tomorrow, lol


EURO...
ECMWF back on board again

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
ECMWF back on board again



has it just west of Jamaica on Saturday as a TS it appears
1037. Grothar
Quoting Meteorology101:


You're such a tender soul, Grothar.


What a nice compliment! I thank you for that. It is an honor to be thought of that way. And here is something for you!

“How far you go in life depends on your being tender with the young, compassionate with the aged, sympathetic with the striving and tolerant of the weak and strong. Because someday in your life you will have been all of these.”
Grother, it's good to see you on here again, hope things are better for you. I've been watching the model runs. When the EURO shows something, it means business. Get ready for Tropical Storm Ida next week, it's my gut feeling. Interests in the Islands and Eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the developing situation.
hey bruned, it is huh?
The EURO still had a low in the Carribean on the 12Z run, just not strong. I still didn't get the new run yet, 2 more minutes I guess.
the 3pm run was just a burp then guys?
Quoting reedzone:
The EURO still had a low in the Carribean on the 12Z run, just not strong. I still didn't get the new run yet, 2 more minutes I guess.


I have the update out to 120 hours, shows a TS just west of Jamaica
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I have the update out to 120 hours, shows a TS just west of Jamaica


lucky lol
1044. Grothar
Quoting Meteorology101:
hey bruned, it is huh?


I don't get it.
1045. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Grother, it's good to see you on here again, hope things are better for you. I've been watching the model runs. When the EURO shows something, it means business. Get ready for Tropical Storm Ida next week, it's my gut feeling. Interests in the Islands and Eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the developing situation.


Thanks reed. As always. Take care, I got to get to work.
00Z ECMWF brings the system north over Cuba and into SW florida as a tropical storm
1047. Grothar
Bye everybody. I hope to be back soon. Stay safe. Keep me informed 101
Target = Florida - 00Z EURO
good grothar talk to you later. so guys, rred and burned, y'all think we'll be getting ida in a couple of days?
I'm out for the night, the NHC is not paying attention to the Carribean, there should have been at least a yellow circle on the TWO. We'll see what the morning brings. Interesting week ahead.
Quoting reedzone:
I'm out for the night, the NHC is not paying attention to the Carribean, there should have been at least a yellow circle on the TWO. We'll see what the morning brings. Interesting week ahead.


Nothing has really persisted there until now, they got this one covered, I am sure they are seeing the model agreement

If things continue to persist we could see it mention on the TWO as early as 8am
anyway night
The latest QuikSCAT isn't showing anything at the surface, except a broad area of convergence. If this thing does spin up, it could become a large system, I suspect.

China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY LUPIT 0920 (0920) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC
00HR 19.0N 133.2E 910HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 260KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 19.7N 129.4E 910HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
P+48HR 19.3N 125.5E 920HPA 60M/S (120 kts)
P+72HR 17.9N 120.7E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+96HR 17.4N 117.9E 935HPA 50M/S= (100 kts)
the carribean looks prettier and prettier each time I look at the infrared does anyone think will have a invest or anything marked by Friday
1056. ackee
see most of model comeing a board developing TS in the SW carrb seem like jamaica caymans and cuba could be in for some rain the least then FL
1057. ackee
Iam dissapointed that NHC has not say a thing about the CARRB system should have been in yellow by now
1058. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO GULF OF
HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT NW THROUGH WED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WWD BUT A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA DRIFTING N TO NW TUE THROUGH
THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL ENTER SE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MON
THROUGH WED AND REACH SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT.
Good Morning , Ike
Chilly in the Panhandle this morning?
1060. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning , Ike
Chilly in the Panhandle this morning?


42.3 outside.
Morning Ike and All,

I see we now have model support pretty much across the board for something to spin up. Going to be a long, slow process from the way it looks.

Let the games begin!
1062. WxLogic
Good morning...

Sure ECMWF now has NOGAPS, and CMC support. Now 00z ECMWF has a more believable system (on that is more like a breed between a TD to weak TS). Should be interesting if trend continues on these 3 models.
1063. aquak9
g'morning wu bloggers.

54º in Jax, FL.

Let the games begin? a whole week or more of this? Eck.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...

Sure ECMWF now has NOGAPS, and CMC support. Now 00z ECMWF has a more believable system (on that is more like a breed between a TD to weak TS). Should be interesting if trend continues on these 3 models.
Don't know if anything will form but East End, Grand Cayman has had 1.21" of rain since around 1 am and pressure at 1009, winds gusting to 36 mph. Kinda chilly for us too at 70.
1065. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't know if anything will form but East End, Grand Cayman has had 1.21" of rain since around 1 am and pressure at 1009, winds gusting to 36 mph. Kinda chilly for us too at 70.


Interesting...
1066. adb42
Tropical depression 03C in the Central Pacific appears to be a rarity, according to CPHC. It developed out of the monsoon trough south of Hawaii. Is expected to be a hurricane by Wednesday, passing by Johnston Atoll by then.

Good Morning All. I've had enough of winter thank you very much! Frickin' freezin' in here.

Updated: 12 min 20 sec ago
Clear
51 °F
Clear
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the East

Lol. I've gotten spoiled in my old age. :)
1069. jipmg
alright so the models are jumping on this thing again... wow
1070. WxLogic
Heading out... and Good morning to those as just jumped in. :)
MOrning everyone.

73 outside right now. Big improvement over Saturday a.m., though still above our normal average low. Looks like the SW Car is continuing to cook.

Will look in later to see what's what.

Have a great one!
Quoting adb42:
Tropical depression 03C in the Central Pacific appears to be a rarity, according to CPHC. It developed out of the monsoon trough south of Hawaii. Is expected to be a hurricane by Wednesday, passing by Johnston Atoll by then.



Does anyone live in Johnston Atoll?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good Morning All. I've had enough of winter thank you very much! Frickin' freezin' in here.

Updated: 12 min 20 sec ago
Clear
51 F
Clear
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 47 F
Wind: 6 mph from the East

Lol. I've gotten spoiled in my old age. :)

Thats' similar to our place, Seoul.
Weather: Clear
Current temperature: 10.3*C==> 50.54*F
Dew Point: 2.8*C (37.04*F)
Wind: From the WNW at 10.5 mph (4.7 m/s)
Humidity: 60%
Feels Like: 8.1*C (46.6*F)
Quoting AllStar17:


Does anyone live in Johnston Atoll?


There is a base on the island

Quoting Bobbyweather:

Thats' similar to our place, Seoul.
Weather: Clear
Current temperature: 10.3*C==> 50.54*F
Dew Point: 2.8*C (37.04*F)
Wind: From the WNW at 10.5 mph (4.7 m/s)
Humidity: 60%
Feels Like: 8.1*C (46.6*F)


As in Korea? I've never been to that part of the world. Don't know if or how El Nino affects you over there. But here it has been giving us lows in the 80's. Which I admit was a little extreme for October. But man, its hard to get out of a warm bed on a cold morning! Lol. Don't know how I ever lived in Germany.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


As in Korea? I've never been to that part of the world. Don't know if or how El Nino affects you over there. But here it has been giving us lows in the 80's. Which I admit was a little extreme for October. But man, its hard to get out of a warm bed on a cold morning! Lol. Don't know how I ever lived in Germany.

Yep,
It's evening here.
Also, as of September 23, the sea surface temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius lower than normal.
johnson atoll is where the tigers come to feed on the migratory seabirds
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Little colder here this a.m.

48.0F Wind Chill 43.0F
Good morning to you too. Cooler here too, down to 70 which is chilly for us. Lots of rain too. Almost 2" since around 1 am. It's great !
1080. jipmg
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning to you too. Cooler here too, down to 70 which is chilly for us. Lots of rain too. Almost 2" since around 1 am. It's great !


You have that front right on you..
Quoting jipmg:


You have that front right on you..
I know and I love it. We really need the rain.
Quoting StormW:
Been a big increase in vorticity at H85 and H70 with the Caribbean area. Vorticity at these levels was not present last night.



Meaning ?
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Yep,
It's evening here.
Also, as of September 23, the sea surface temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius lower than normal.


That got me to thinking about our water temps. They were insanely hot over the summer. But now not so much. Had to find a buoy Ike didn't knock out last year. Lol. I would assume our tropics threat is over for the year. Knocking on wood here. :)

Station RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX

Water Temperature (WTMP): 67.3 °F
Quoting Weather456:


There is a base on the island



Yes, there is a US military base. Our flight landed there en route from Hawaii to Majuro (Marshall
Islands). Planes refuel there but you are not allowed to deplane.
Quoting StormW:


H85 and H70 is an abbreviation for Height...H85= 850mb...H70= 700mb.

This increase in vorticity indicates a surface low may be trying to develop. Right now, a low is just above the surface at around 5,000ft. May be trying to develop a surface reflection.
Ok, thanks. I kinda had it figured out but wasn't sure. Just checked the weather stations in a couple different locations on Grand Cayman and we have had between 3.92" and 5.85" of rain since around 1 am. It is coming down pretty good.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Little colder here this a.m.

48.0F Wind Chill 43.0F


Good Morning Storm. Didn't see ya sneak in.
Quoting StormW:


Do you own a life jacket? LOL!
A couple LOL.
once this sw carib system breaks off from the cold front it should develop going to be a soaker not the time for a cancun trip
Wow! The Caribbean is baking. The CMC is trying to send this to you Storm. :( Hope not. How strong would a 988 low be?



1096. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ike at night:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Ike in the morning.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wow! The Caribbean is baking. The CMC is trying to send this to you Storm. :( Hope not. How strong would a 988 low be?



75 mph/ Cat 1
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
75 mph/ Cat 1


Ok. Thank you. :)
I see the NHC "appears " still not to be impressed with the Caribbean Blob.
1100. IKE
Caribbean low(1012 mb's), isn't coming north anytime soon. If it did, shear would destroy it...Link




Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ok. Thank you. :)
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I see the NHC "appears " still not to be impressed with the Caribbean Blob.
They might not be but I sure am. We have had almost 6" of rain. What a blessing.
The 06 GFS seems to keep it in the Caribbean and loses it around 240hrs best I can tell. That is a looong time in more or less the same place. That wouldn't be good either.
1104. jipmg
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wow! The Caribbean is baking. The CMC is trying to send this to you Storm. :( Hope not. How strong would a 988 low be?





988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference.


Thank you. I pasted that in a safe place. :) I never could figure those out.
Quoting jipmg:


988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane


Thank you. :)
stormwatcherCI got banned??? Why what happened? I was just talking to him/her. :(
Quoting StormW:


I'm ready for it Stef.


Oh Ok. Lol. I feel a little better knowing that's only showing a cat 1.
1110. amd
lowest pressure that I could find with the Caribbean blob is 1008 mb at San Andres, Colombia.

Link

However, area of maximum vorticity at 850 mb is a bit wsw of that island, and may be just offshore.

Link

1111. SykKid
Seasons over.
Recon on their way to Rick, think it will take ~4 hours to get there.
Quoting Weather456:
BBL,

Tropical Update

Tropical depression may form later this week
Thanks for the observations 456.As usual, a very clear synopsis on our area of interest here.
Quoting leftovers:
once this sw carib system breaks off from the cold front it should develop going to be a soaker not the time for a cancun trip
right over the highest OHC of the atlantic
Quoting SykKid:
Seasons over.
at
11 59 59 pm nov 30 2009
waitin on the gom rtn flow
wow iam a blog killer

quiet in here this am
KOG - I think I just heard a pin drop.
may have
1120. beell
it's so quiet you could here a mouse dropping...
or something like that.
anyway off to work bbl at lunch
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?
1123. XL
I have to say I've been checking in during breaks from work and was starting to think there was a problem with the site as there was so little activity in the blog.
Quoting tornadofan:
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?


Looks like...

BY WEDNESDAY...ADVECTING PACIFIC CLOUDS...FROM THE LANDFALLED
HURRICANE RICK...WILL AUGMENT THE INCOMING GULF MOISTURE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

1127. Grothar
Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone?
1128. beell
1122. tornadofan 1:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2009
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?


I think you and I have consensus on that, tf.
A repeat of the last front maybe. Stalls along the coast and then as high pressure builds behind, a push farther offshore. Not looking to get as far and as fast to the south as the current front. The boundary entering the MDR near Bermuda and running to the SW over the Yucatan.

Only a 1017mb surface high over the NE Gulf states by next weekend.

Anyway a short term stall along the coast coincident with Rick Remains should bless us well.
Good Morning all.
I see we have other forecast models onboard now
1131. jipmg
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I see we have other forecast models onboard now


link
GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north.
Quoting jipmg:


link


I just woke up and am going by what 456 said in his blog lol, brb
1134. jipmg
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north.


Same thing that was said hours ago, lol
Good evening one and all.
Quoting jipmg:


Same thing that was said hours ago, lol
Ok. That's fine. Read it again.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I see we have other forecast models onboard now

the more models that come on board the more this thing will develop
456 when is the wind shear to the N of this possible, TC in the days to come, suppossed to decrease?
Quoting AussieStorm:

the more models that come on board the more this thing will develop


Correct, sir, and good evening to you and good morning to everyone else.
Quoting Grothar:
Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone?

Stayed up too late watching weather systems & blog -- did you get any sleep? (gulps coffee, head nods, even doggys are sleeping in here.)
850mb Vorticity increasing near Nicaragua:

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