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Sundowner winds fan California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:16 PM GMT on May 07, 2009

Wildfires fanned by winds gusting over 60 mph roared through the hills of Santa Barbarba, California yesterday, and continue to burn out of control today. A strong high pressure system to the north of Santa Barbara is driving a variant of the famed Santa Ana winds called the "Sundowner" winds. These winds blow from north to south from the mountains to the sea. Since the winds blow downhill, the air compresses and heats as it descends, resulting in very hot, dry conditions perfect for fires. The winds tend to peak in strength at sundown, thus the name "Sundowner" winds. A number of record high temperatures were set in the region yesterday, with 100°F recorded at the Santa Barbara airport, smashing the old record of 86° set in 1991. Record heat was also observed in Los Angeles, where the UCLA weather station reported a record high of 93° (old record: 89° in 1990). Humidities as low as 14% were observed yesterday in Santa Barbara.

Winds this morning were sustained at 44 mph gusting to 62 mph at Montecito, CA at 1500 feet in the mountains near Santa Barbara, and these strong winds are expected to continue today before dying down on Friday. Precipitation since the rainy season began October 1, 2008, in the Santa Barbara region, has been only about half or normal (Figure 1). With the winter/spring rainy season pretty much over, California can expect another severe fire year in 2009. The snowpack in the Sierras was mostly below average this winter, so water shortages will also be a problem this summer in California.


Figure 1. Percent of normal precipitation for the Southwest U.S. for October 1, 2008 - May 6, 2009. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.

For more information
Take a look at the wundermap for Santa Barbara, and turn on the "fire" layer.

Jeff Masters
Jesusita Fire - Santa Barbara
Jesusita Fire - Santa Barbara
My daughter took this photo form her front porch about 5:00 pm today. She lives just a few blocks west of State Street, the main street through beautiful downtown Santa Barbara. She is just blocks from the evacuation warning zone.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

One in four emergency management jobs vacant in Broward


The head of Broward's emergency management department said he is understaffed to handle hurricanes, but other officials say the county will be fully prepared.


BY AMY SHERMAN
asherman@MiamiHerald.com

Less than a month before the June 1 hurricane season starts, one quarter of the jobs are vacant in the Broward division that prepares for and responds to such disasters.

And another top manager in the Broward Emergency Management Division could soon be leaving. Bill Johnson, Broward's assistant director of emergency management, is in the running for the top job at the Miami-Dade Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security.

For nearly a year, top emergency management officials have been raising alarms about vacancies in Broward's hurricane office. But as county commissioners explore ways to cut $160 million from next year's $3.6 billion budget, the empty seats in emergency management may remain. As of this week, four of the 16 positions were vacant -- a much higher proportion than in Miami-Dade or Palm Beach counties.
California fire: Your experiences

A house burns in the hills above Santa Barbara
This house overlooking Santa Barbara was one of the casualties of the fire.



California residents have been emailing the BBC with their eyewitness accounts of the fierce wildfire that is threatening the town of Santa Barbara.
Quoting Patrap:
Forced evacuations in hurricanes won't work

By ENTERPRISE OPINIONS
May, 6, 2009

Among the worst laws the state Legislature can pass are those whose enforcement is impractical and those that law enforcement doesn't see as a priority and therefore won't implement. A Senate bill that would allow authorities to use "reasonable force" to move people out during mandatory evacuations fails on both counts.

Some people will not leave when hurricanes threaten. They may think it's a false alarm or that their luck will hold anyway. During Ike, more than 20,000 people in Orange County alone stayed.

There is no way police could arrest thousands of holdouts and put them on buses. It would be enormously stressful even to try, especially if the diehards were disabled or elderly.

During a hurricane watch, authorities have dozens of important things to do. People who resist mandatory evacuation orders should be told they're on their own. Moreover, no lives should be risked to save them until the storm is over.

Hurricanes are incredibly difficult to deal with. But a bad law like this is worse than no law at all.


That is humorous in a weird sort of way. These are the same people that can't figure out why the authorities are not there 12 hours after the storm passes, to supply them with everything.. including food and shelter for months or longer.
Never any humor in suffering,even from boneheads Orca.

We will always have folks,elderly,disabled,or fit bodied that wont,or cant evacuate.

We call that the 10 percent group.

One cant legislate smart.

They have to survive the Fray,and then be accounted for.
Or be added to the deceased list.

The same occurs in Fires,people either ignore the call to leave,or wait until its too late.
Sad,but thats the world we live in.
Quoting Patrap:
Never any humor in suffering,even from boneheads Orca.

We will always have folks,elderly,disabled,or fit bodied that wont,or cant evacuate.

We call that the 10 percent group.

One cant legislate smart.

They have to survive the Fray,and then be accounted for.
Or be added to the deceased list.


Its the fit bodied people that peeve me. There is no excuse for not being able to get the elderly or disabled people out in a mandatory evacuation.
People should be allowed to stay if they choose to do so. No effort should be made to rescue them until the storm is completely gone. When a rescue effort is made, the individual should have to pay for the full cost. After Katrina, we have seen that cities and states are more than willing to provide buses and transportation for those who do not have their own.
South Carolina 2009 Emergency Planning and Special Needs Populations Workshop Presentations

SCEMD - Your Family Disaster Plan

FEMA Issued Flood Maps (to order online)

Storm Surge Map for Berkeley, Charleston, Dorchester Counties, South Carolina

Charleston is in the center column, second block from the bottom. Look for the peninsula. That's me!
That's a good view and true.
Before Gustav,and even right up till He Impacted,one could have evacuated easily.
Plans were initiated well before,and folks heeded the Warnings and Left orderly and completely.
It was literally raining Buses here.

After winds reach sustained Tropical Force,no rescues from Official Sources are attempted.

Leave early, Leave..

"Nothing" is worth staying for.

At the least your inconvenienced a few days.
Quoting CaneWarning:
People should be allowed to stay if they choose to do so. No effort should be made to rescue them until the storm is completely gone. When a rescue effort is made, the individual should have to pay for the full cost. After Katrina, we have seen that cities and states are more than willing to provide buses and transportation for those who do not have their own.


Were you not here for the Hurricanes last year... my god there were people screaming about the lack of water and supplies... and where was FEMA.. less then 12 hours after Galveston got hit. That was after the Stay and Die comment.

That was from the same group of idiots who were on TV drinking at a bar across the road from the Beach Wall.


K, I am going to stop now.. that just peeves me to see that kind of attitude.... gimme gimme gimme I have rights.

Santa Barbara County South Coast Warnings


High Wind Warning

Statement as of 3:25 AM PDT on May 07, 2009

... High Wind Warning now in effect until 9 am PDT Friday...

The High Wind Warning is now in effect until 9 am PDT Friday.

Areas of northwest to north winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts as high
as 65 mph will continue through Friday morning. There may be a
lull in the winds in some areas this morning into early this
afternoon. The strongest winds will occur in the Santa Ynez range
and through and below passes and canyons of the South Coast.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Were you not here for the Hurricanes last year... my god there were people screaming about the lack or water and supplies... and where was FEMA.. less then 12 hours after Galveston got hit. That was after the Stay and Die comment.

That was from the same group of idiots who were on TV drinking at a bar across the road from the Beach Wall.



I do remember that. People have forgotten about personal responsibility and instead they rely on the government or others to take care of them. I think that needs to change. Some will learn the hard way I am afraid.
5.7.2009 8:29 AM

4 Ways Global Warming Increases Wildfire Risk
In Santa Barbara, Calif., at least 20 homes have burned in the latest destructive fire outbreak.


As yet another destructive wildfire sweeps down the California coast, it's time to revisit the global scientific link between global warming and wildfires.

At least 20 homes -- described by Reuters as multimillion dollar mansions -- have burned as the out-of-control wildfire burns toward Santa Barbara.

This fire was caused -- as all fire are -- by local weather conditions coinciding with a spark. In this case, it was a string of hot days when temperature reached over 100 degrees and gusty hot winds of up to 50 mph, along with suspected arson.

The first thing any responsible report about global warming and the weather should say is: There is no way for anyone to say that a single event was caused by global warming. What we can say is that scientists have not only predicted that global warming will increase fire risk, particularly in the Western U.S., but that it has already produced more fires. In fact, increased wildfire risk is among the predictions scientists are most confident in making, when it comes to global warming effects. Even California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has warned that global warming has effectively eliminated the concept of a "fire season," since weather conditions now result in a year-round risk.
OK, off the pedestal, and back to normal programming :)

Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, off the pedestal, and back to normal programming :)

Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge


Please post a map showing rain over Florida. Thanks!
Looks like it will get ugly this afternoon on the fire side

Santa Barbara fire burns homes as more than 13,000 are evacuated
FEMA arrived quickly after IKE but the Mayor and County Judges had to take control and organize the effort. FEMA supplies were not getting out to those were were in need, all was on hold and going no where until then. The Homeland security folk were going door to door in neighborhoods with minor damages and making big promises. They were few and far between in the hard hit areas. Crazy stuff.
The people who stay to party it up through these storms must have a combined IQ of 25. I know people who stayed but went to places that were secured structures ie. building built to withstand Cat 5 storms. It is a totally different thing to be out on the seawall when the storm is rolling in. I have no patience for the gimme gimme mindset that so many IDIOTS have out there. Quit relying on the government to provide for you. That is not the government's job. Grow a brain a provide for and protect yourself.

Good morning everyone!
Denotes a post that is just my opinion for what it is worth.

5. Patrap
I respectfully disagree. Humor has always served me well, in the most dire of circumstances. (Perhaps it is my Irish blood - ever been to an Irish Wake?) 'Gallow' humor is a much a part of the repertoire of nurses, cops, etc as that strong cup of coffee. I believe it is necessary and healthy.

Having said that:
Until we have provided a means of egress and the help needed for emergency evacuation to everyone, we cannot legislate compliance.

People who can leave, but refuse to leave (I know my rights! )
1) At the very least tie up resources after the storm - as they cry for help (Remember the folks, sitting on their balconies demanding ice - while the search for survivors was going on?)
2) At the worst - put others in danger

For a good example of 'I know my rights' sort of foolishness watch Steve The Lawnmower Guy's Domestic Arrest
Quoting CaneWarning:


Please post a map showing rain over Florida. Thanks!


Rain? Florida? I don't think those two go together do they?
"Charleston is in the center column, second block from the bottom. Look for the peninsula. That's me!"

Gotcha...Rattlesnake Shoal just offshore from you. That's quite a chum hole on the south side of the south jetty you have there.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Rain? Florida? I don't think those two go together do they?


Not lately.
Quoting CaneWarning:



I do remember that. People have forgotten about personal responsibility and instead they rely on the government or others to take care of them. I think that needs to change. Some will learn the hard way I am afraid.


And often they seem the very people who also complain if a government's actions are 'socialist', taking away their rights for their 'own good'.

Can't have it both ways.
Quoting theshepherd:
"Charleston is in the center column, second block from the bottom. Look for the peninsula. That's me!"

Gotcha...Rattlesnake Shoal just offshore from you. That's quite a chum hole on the south side of the south jetty you have there.
Yea, man. Been there? Not a good day for boating, I am thinking:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TIME-
LINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY BE FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE SEA BREEZE COULD
INITIALLY FOCUS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TODAY THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING EASTWARD INTO LOCATIONS TO
THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 LATER IN THE DAY.
23 days....
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
23 days....


It keeps on getting closer. It feels like it was just a few months away.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Yea, man. Been there?

Nope. Looked it up on my charts after you mentioned your sis was a go getter. Wanted to see what her stomping grounds looked like.
If I ever get assigned near there, I'll give it a try. I always drag one of my boats with me. They can't hide.
before you know it, it will be here HAHAGUY. Then the hysteria will begin... The blogs will be infiltrated with screamers and gaspers...lol
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
before you know it, it will be here HAHAGUY. Then the hysteria will begin... The blogs will be infiltrated with screamers and gaspers...lol


All of that has arrived early this year LOL
I think you may be right... but heaven knows how bad it will be once we get our first storm out there...

Am I seeing this right? Those are really high or I am not looking at the appropriate map.

Shear is falling quickly over the Atlantic! We must be getting close to the beginning of the season. Everyone else see where the AB High is resting at? Things could be interesting this year.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The people who stay to party it up through these storms must have a combined IQ of 25. I know people who stayed but went to places that were secured structures ie. building built to withstand Cat 5 storms. It is a totally different thing to be out on the seawall when the storm is rolling in. I have no patience for the gimme gimme mindset that so many IDIOTS have out there. Quit relying on the government to provide for you. That is not the government's job. Grow a brain a provide for and protect yourself.

Good morning everyone!



Good morning everyone!!!,I believe everyone should have a 72hr emergency food kit,I myself have 2 cases of MRE's.......Question:If our Gov.,doesn't help out(after 72hrs),what is the taxpayer,paying for???,isn't it for the gov to help the taxpayer if needed...if it isn't, why do we pay taxes???..just curious what everyone thinks!!!...GOOD MORNING!!!
Quoting charlottefl:
Shear is falling quickly over the Atlantic! We must be getting close to the beginning of the season. Everyone else see where the AB High is resting at? Things could be interesting this year.


I hope that changes or we are in trouble.
Quoting Patrap:
Never any humor in suffering,even from boneheads Orca.

We will always have folks,elderly,disabled,or fit bodied that wont,or cant evacuate.


Very well said. And let's not forget about the mentally ill either. I think we should spend more time being thankful that everything works well enough in our brains to be able to take care of ourselves, and less time directing anger at those who aren't as fortunate.
Where does a person get two cases of MREs??
Quoting stillwaiting:



Good morning everyone!!!,I believe everyone should have a 72hr emergency food kit,I myself have 2 cases of MRE's.......Question:If our Gov.,doesn't help out(after 72hrs),what is the taxpayer,paying for???,isn't it for the gov to help the taxpayer if needed...if it isn't, why do we pay taxes???..just curious what everyone thinks!!!...GOOD MORNING!!!


I do not believe the taxpayer is paying for the government to come rescue them from their own stupidity or lack of preparedness. That is why the government should begin to charge people for these services. The government provides infrastructure, schools, and other basic services such as law enforcement.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Please post a map showing rain over Florida. Thanks!



He won't be able to do that for about another month....he could face possible"prosicution" from the weather police!!!,lol.......in about a month the sky's should open up on a daily basis, its going to be a wet summer and you'll be saying the opposite by the end of july..w/a wetter rainy season predicted for FL!!!!....I wouldn't be suprised w/mother nature flooding parts of the peninsula,erasing our rain deficate completely..mother nature has a way of doing things like that.......get ready for the tropical "rain train" by mid/late june,IMO...
Quoting flsky:
Where does a person get two cases of MREs??


I bought some at Publix last year. They self heat and everything.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I bought some at Publix last year. They self heat and everything.


Unless MRE's have gotten better since I retired.. I think I will stick to canned goods and Coleman stove... MRE (shudder)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Unless MRE's have gotten better since I retired.. I think I will stick to canned goods and Coleman stove... MRE (shudder)


I haven't eaten mine yet, but I hear that its better than starving.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I haven't eaten mine yet, but I hear that its better than starving.


Eat one... have the Ham or Chili...
Then go and add some canned good to your stock :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Eat one... have the Ham or Chili...
Then go and add some canned good to your stock :)


Believe me, I have a pantry full of canned foods. I have enough tuna and other foods to last me for several weeks. Although, I don't know why I prepare for hurricanes - a Cat 1 would put me under water.
Quoting stillwaiting:



Good morning everyone!!!,I believe everyone should have a 72hr emergency food kit,I myself have 2 cases of MRE's.......Question:If our Gov.,doesn't help out(after 72hrs),what is the taxpayer,paying for???,isn't it for the gov to help the taxpayer if needed...if it isn't, why do we pay taxes???..just curious what everyone thinks!!!...GOOD MORNING!!!


Good morning stillwaiting.

Personally, federal taxes should be for national defense and infrastructure, imo.

Not much else. All else should be local. What's good for Kansas is not the same as what's good for Florida. Plus you have more accountability. I can't vote the senator from Kansas out of office. And, yes, me here in FL should pay more than someone in Kansas in local taxes to deal with Hurricanes, which Kansas doesn't need to worry about. They pay whatever is necessary for flooding and such.

What our country was founded on, but it has morphed into something quite different over time. And that has nothing to do with party. Simply Washington.

And, not ancient history. Prior to the '20s feds got 1.7% of GDP. Today it is roughly 25%.

Not to mention, roughly 50% of folks don't pay any fed income tax at all.

JMO.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Believe me, I have a pantry full of canned foods. I have enough tuna and other foods to last me for several weeks. Although, I don't know why I prepare for hurricanes - a Cat 1 would put me under water.
Emergency supplies will come in handy when you return from evacuating. It can easily be weeks before things get back to normal. Almost 4 weeks before I had electricity after Hugo. You will be glad you planned ahead.
Hey Stillwaiting:

Check your e-mail.
Don't forget their are about 75 million Americans at or approaching retirement age. That is a big hole to fill from a tax standpoint.
CAPE of 3449 in NW Texas......eeechh

I have this on my blog, put all your hurricane preps in rubber made containers. If you have to evac. you can just throw them in the car and go. In the event that you return, and you do have structural/water issues. At least you have supplies.

Quoting CaneWarning:


Believe me, I have a pantry full of canned foods. I have enough tuna and other foods to last me for several weeks. Although, I don't know why I prepare for hurricanes - a Cat 1 would put me under water.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Emergency supplies will come in handy when you return from evacuating. It can easily be weeks before for things get back to normal. Almost 4 weeks before I had electricity after Hugo. You will be glad you planned ahead.


If my house is flooded those supplies probably won't matter.
Quoting charlottefl:
Shear is falling quickly over the Atlantic! We must be getting close to the beginning of the season. Everyone else see where the AB High is resting at? Things could be interesting this year.


You are correct, I was looking at the next 5 day forecast before logging on and Shear is dropping very fast across the Atlantic.
Quoting TampaSpin:
CAPE of 3449 in NW Texas......eeechh



Tampa, the graphic on #32 shows them in the 5000 range in the forecast. Is that possible?
Wanted you guys to see this. My home county, I live one county south right now. In a Cat 4/5 (Pink shade) aprox 160,000 people live in those areas.


Quoting CaneWarning:


If my house is flooded those supplies probably won't matter.
Maybe... depends on how high the water gets and what the containers are. If your home is severely damaged by water or wind, you probably will not be living there for awhile. However, as disastrous as Hugo was, most of us were able to return to homes intact (most had some damage - do not know anyone who did not). I was glad after Hugo that I had prepared for the Hurricane season. It is not all or nothing when it comes to damage.
Quoting charlottefl:
Wanted you guys to see this. My home county, I live one county south right now. In a Cat 4/5 (Pink shade) aprox 160,000 people live in those areas.

http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emergency/images_Emergency/stormsurge.gif


That area was lucky with Charley that storm surge wasn't much of an issue.
Quoting Ossqss:


Tampa, the graphic on #32 shows them in the 5000 range in the forecast. Is that possible?


If you look at the date. That is a forecast for friday....Have not looked at what would cause that yet. But, if that comes true.....BIG TIME TROUBLE coming!
Brazil floods kill 15, leave 70,000 homeless


Authorities say severe flooding has hit Brazil's perennially drought-stricken north-east, killing 15 people and leaving 70,000 others homeless.

The states most affected by the flooding are Maranhao, Piaui, Ceara, Alagoas and Bahia.

Six people were killed and six major highways were inundated in Maranho, drenched by the heaviest rains since 1985, civil defense authorities said.

Sao Luis, the state capital, and 40 other towns have been battered by rains that have lasted nearly a month.

An estimated 48,000 people were forced to leave their homes, and of those 22,000 lost their homes, a civil defense spokesman said.

In the small state of Alagoas, four people were killed Friday in mudslides and flooding.

Deaths also were reported in Ceara, Bahia and Piaui.

In Piaui more than 30,000 were forced to leave their houses and take refuge in schools and gymnasiums.

The Piaui state governor, Wellington Dias, declared a state of emergency in 19 communities, and has also asked the army to help rescue people stranded by the flooding.

The Sao Francisco hydroelectric company said the Poty river was 14 metres over its normal level.

The torrential rains also affected the country's Amazon region.

- AFP
Charley was an exception to the rule though.
Small, Very fast moving= no time to generate significant surge. Gabrielle made landfall in N. Venice in 2001, and generated a 6.1 Foot storm sure in Punta Gorda, Gabrielle was officially a tropical storm at landfall. Even Frances exiting Tampa 100 miles to our North produced a 4 ft surge in Punta Gorda, and that being a back door tropical storm.
Quoting CaneWarning:


That area was lucky with Charley that storm surge wasn't much of an issue.
Quoting CaneWarning:


If my house is flooded those supplies probably won't matter.


So I got a small lake in front of my house , even if my house gets flooded I'm still going to have my supplies.
National Weather Service also agrees with that forecast......OUCH!

62. DDR
Quoting AussieStorm:
Brazil floods kill 15, leave 70,000 homeless


Authorities say severe flooding has hit Brazil's perennially drought-stricken north-east, killing 15 people and leaving 70,000 others homeless.

The states most affected by the flooding are Maranhao, Piaui, Ceara, Alagoas and Bahia.

Six people were killed and six major highways were inundated in Maranho, drenched by the heaviest rains since 1985, civil defense authorities said.

Sao Luis, the state capital, and 40 other towns have been battered by rains that have lasted nearly a month.

An estimated 48,000 people were forced to leave their homes, and of those 22,000 lost their homes, a civil defense spokesman said.

In the small state of Alagoas, four people were killed Friday in mudslides and flooding.

Deaths also were reported in Ceara, Bahia and Piaui.

In Piaui more than 30,000 were forced to leave their houses and take refuge in schools and gymnasiums.

The Piaui state governor, Wellington Dias, declared a state of emergency in 19 communities, and has also asked the army to help rescue people stranded by the flooding.

The Sao Francisco hydroelectric company said the Poty river was 14 metres over its normal level.

The torrential rains also affected the country's Amazon region.

- AFP

Wow,too much or too little rain be be bad thing.Theres no way i'd ever live in a desert.
Thanks for reminding me about supplies. The most important things are water and canned foods, peanut butter, crackers, a medical kit. It's also nice to make sure the grill has plenty of gas. I've moved a lot closer to the ocean although, still about a half mile away, and am up high in the tree tops, surrounded by oak canopy trees on a dune. There's a concrete bunker under my living quarters, with two windows really high up, but the two concrete block rooms are filthy and full of junk that needs to be cleaned out. Because I have animals and do have shutters, a generator, and chainsaw, etc., I am not one to want to leave. I'm also high up and won't get flooded unless there's a tidal wave. We'll see. I feel really safe here, even though I live on a barrier island in Florida. The house was built by an engineer. Think I will see some really dramatic formations this year since I can see the sun rise from my perch!
Quoting TampaSpin:


If you look at the date. That is a forecast for friday....Have not looked at what would cause that yet. But, if that comes true.....BIG TIME TROUBLE coming!


OK, which leads me to a question.

What is the highest CAPE value we should ever expect to see?

The color code on that chart in #32 appears to go to 6500 and is violet, just like a big chunk of Texas tomorrow.
Charley was an exception to the rule though.Small, Very fast moving= no time to generate significant surge. Gabrielle made landfall in N. Venice in 2001, and generated a 6.1 Foot storm sure in Punta Gorda, Gabrielle was officially a tropical storm at landfall. Even Frances exiting Tampa 100 miles to our North produced a 4 ft surge in Punta Gorda, and that being a back door tropical storm.The only reason I stayed in Port Charlotte during Charley is we were in a 4 Story commercial Hospital. If we didn't have the option to go up several floors I wouldn't have been there.
A coupla months ago, I thought that tornadoes were the scariest weather happenings. After reading Master's blog this morning, have moved fires into that category.

A question for those of you on the west coast who live in seasonal fire prone areas. How do you plan ahead for fire season? I am guessing that you have your important papers and family photos in a container for quick grabbing, if you need to leave. Do you clear brush from the house, or is that considered useless. Does it change what building materials you use?

Very scary
Quoting Ossqss:


OK, which leads me to a question.

What is the highest CAPE value we should ever expect to see?

The color code on that chart in #32 appears to go to 6500 and is violet, just like a big chunk of Texas tomorrow.


Bro that it about as high or as bad as it gets. WOW!
I see what the problem that is develping...A very strong Sub-Tropical Jet stream is forming across the south and a Low pressure will be forming Near North Texas and ride the Jet. Big time trouble coming tomorrow.


Exerpt from my WU Blog:
(The time to make these preps is before a fire.)

Also, as far as valuables are concerned a Fire safe it a good bet. If you don't have time to grab it at least it has a chance of surviving.


If you live in an area subject to wildfires, your best protection it to be proactive. Keep you lawn trimmed and well watered. Also take some time to look around your property for things that are easily ignitable (dead leaves, trees that hang low to the ground, and bushy vegetation near your home). Take the time to trim your trees, get rid of any dead vegetation, and trim any large bushes that may be near your home. In the event of a wildfire, it may save your property.
Quoting charlottefl:
Wanted you guys to see this. My home county, I live one county south right now. In a Cat 4/5 (Pink shade) aprox 160,000 people live in those areas.





charlotte:do you hava a simular map for pinellis county and/or hillsbourogh???...its 4 times as bad as your map.....I'd say next to NO and key west,tampa bay eventually will get there doomsday scenerio,alomost happened durn Hurricane charley,but once again,dodged a BIG bullet...its only a matter of time though.I remember they showed a flood map of st pete when charley was approaching and st pete was 2 islands!!!!!
#65

did u stay at charlotte regional?

i know the hospital sustained major structural damage and the highest (although unofficial) wind gust came from the hospital (178 mph)

amazing how u can still through parts of punta gorda/ pt charlotte and still see wind stripped trees and a few damaged homes, even almost 5 years after charlie hit
Ok, here is some interesing CAPE info. Notice May dates.

Two notable days for severe weather exhibited CAPE values over 5,000 J/kg. Two hours before the 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak occurred on May 3, 1999, the CAPE value sounding at Oklahoma City was at 5,885 J/kg. A few hours later, an F5 tornado ripped through the southern suburbs of the city. Also on May 4, 2007 CAPE values of 5,500 J/kg were reached and an EF5 tornado tore through Greensburg, Kansas. On these days, it was apparent that conditions were ripe for tornadoes and CAPE wasn't a crucial factor. However, extreme CAPE, by modulating the updraft (and downdraft), can allow for exceptional events, such as the deadly F5 tornadoes that hit Plainfield, Illinois on August 28, 1990 and Jarrell, Texas on May 27, 1997 on days which weren't readily apparent as conducive to large tornadoes. CAPE was estimated to exceed 8,000 J/kg in the environment of the Plainfield storm and was around 7,000 J/kg for the Jarrell storm.

Here is another CAPE in LOOP!

Got a lunch engagement! Will BBL to complete a SEVERE WEATHER Update for tomorrow.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "EMONG" has made landfall in Northern Pangasinan and is expected to weaken after crossing Cordillera Mountains.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
==================================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Emong (Chan-hom) located at 16.7°N 120.4°E or in the vicinity of La Union has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 knots) near the center with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 knots). The storm is reported as moving northeast at 9 knots.

Warning Signal #3 (100-185 km/h winds)
=====================================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Zambales
3.Tarlac
4.Nueva Vizcaya
5.Benguet
6.La Union
7.Ilocos Sur
8.Ifugao
9.Mt. Province
10.Kalinga
11.Apayao
12.Abra

Warning Signals #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Rest of Zambales
2.Pampanga
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Quirino
5.Isabela
6.Cagayan
7.Babuyan and Batanes

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Lubang Island
2.Bataan
3.Bulacan
4.Cavite
5.Rizal
6.Northern Quezon
7.Aurora
8.Metro Manila

Public Storm Warning Signal is now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under storm signals # 2 and # 3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 A.M. tomorrow.
Quoting stillwaiting:



charlotte:do you hava a simular map for pinnelis county and/or hillsbourogh???...its 4 times as bad as your map.....I'd say next to NO and key west,tampa bay eventually will get there doomsday scenerio,alomost happened durn Hurricane charley,but once again,dodged a BIG bullet...its only a matter of time though.I remember they showed a flood map of st pete when charley was approaching and st pete was 2 islands!!!!!


Naaahhh... TampaSpin's already prepped his deflector shields, I'm sure.
An F4 or higher Tomorrow would not surprise me!



Local MET in West Palm, FL gave a humorous forecast last night. "Here is the extended version of my extended forecast". Hot, No Rain, Few Clouds, Light Winds till the end of the month. He's probably going to be right too, lol.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Local MET in West Palm, FL gave a humorous forecast last night. "Here is the extended version of my extended forecast". Hot, No Rain, Few Clouds, Light Winds till the end of the month. He's probably going to be right too, lol.


Which MET Matthews or Weagle?
No. We were at another hospital about 3-4 miles NW of Charlotte Regional. Posted this before, but there was a FEMA report that said the hospital staff at CR reported the anemometer pegging out at 175mph (highest it would go) and staying there for several minutes before the gauge broke off the building. If you apply conventional wisdom 150mph +25mph forward speed at the time of land fall. Sustained winds in the NE quadrant would have been approaching that level. If you look at the NHC report it says Charley caused Catastrophic wind damage in Charlotte county. There's only one Cat of hurricane that correlates the damage as catastrophic. (Cat 5) And although it wasn't that strong for everyone I believe Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte experienced a Cat 5.
Quoting floridafisherman:
#65

did u stay at charlotte regional?

i know the hospital sustained major structural damage and the highest (although unofficial) wind gust came from the hospital (178 mph)

amazing how u can still through parts of punta gorda/ pt charlotte and still see wind stripped trees and a few damaged homes, even almost 5 years after charlie hit
Quoting Ossqss:


OK, which leads me to a question.

What is the highest CAPE value we should ever expect to see?

The color code on that chart in #32 appears to go to 6500 and is violet, just like a big chunk of Texas tomorrow.



around 5000 is rare and considered extreme,anything over 1000 could create severe wx....I've never heard of 6400,I don't think its possible???,TS???
Wildfires force 2000 people to evacuate
Article from: Agence France-Presse


From correspondents in Los Angeles

May 07, 2009

A WIND-DRIVEN wildfire have destroyed several homes and forced hundreds of residents to flee in the California coastal town of Santa Barbara, officials said.

Local television footage showed several hillside homes in the exclusive region north of Los Angeles engulfed in flames and thick smoke as the fast-moving fire swept across the area.

Santa Barbara County fire officials said at least one person had been injured in the blaze, while around 2000 people were ordered to evacuate after a fire which began on Monday exploded into life.

Some 1300 firefighters backed up five water-dropping helicopters were tackling the blaze, which had scorched 80ha.

California is frequently hit by scorching wildfires due to its dry climate, Santa Ana winds and recent housing booms which have seen housing spread rapidly into rural and densely forested areas.

In 2007, California suffered devastation from wildfires among the worst in its history that left eight people dead, gutted 2000 homes, displaced 640,000 people and caused over one billion dollars in damage.

Last November at least 100 homes were destroyed by a wildfire in the celebrity enclave of Montecito near Santa Barbara.
Floridians, I def feel for you guys with the no rain... We went through a similar spell in Jan-March here in SETX and luckily we didn't have any fires or such.

Best of luck to you guys and gals, hope you get some relief soon!
ENSO Wrap-Up
Tropical Pacific neutral; ocean warms slowly.

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Both the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and sub-surface have continued to warm over the past few weeks, resulting in near average ocean temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific, but slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east. Trade winds have weakened further, and are now widely weaker than average. The SOI rose from zero in March to +9 in April, however the current (5 May) 30-day value has fallen slightly to +7 and remains in the neutral range.

Most international coupled climate models predict further warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, with SSTs remaining in the ENSO-neutral range until at least mid-winter. About half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009, but the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum. As the period from March-June is the preferred El Niño genesis period, Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any indications of an event.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The typical development period for an IOD event is late autumn to early winter, therefore model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of an emerging event.

In Brief


* SSTs continue to warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SST values are now close to normal across most of the central equatorial Pacific, but above normal in the east.
* The equatorial sub-surface has also continued to warm, removing most of the areas of previously cool water.
* The SOI rebounded in April after falling in March, but the most recent values indicate a renewed falling trend. The latest 30-day SOI value for 5 May is +7. The monthly value for April was +9.
* Trade winds have weakened further. Anomalous westerly flow currently covers much of the equatorial Pacific.
* Cloudiness near the date-line increased, but remains below average.
* The majority of dynamic computer models predict neutral conditions to continue until at least mid-winter.

Details

SSTs across the central and eastern tropical Pacific continue to warm slowly, as they have done since February. When averaged over the month of April this warming has resulted in the disappearance of cool SST anomalies from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SSTs were close to normal everywhere with the exception of the far eastern regions, where they are now warmer than normal. The monthly NINO indices for April were +0.3°C, 0°C and +0.1°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 and respectively.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +0.6°C, +0.3°C and 0.3°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. Over the past three weeks all three NINO regions have warmed. NINO3 and NINO3.4 warmed the most with an increase of approximately 0.3°C, while NINO4 warmed by approximately 0.2°C. The 7-day SST anomaly map map shows that SSTs across the central equatorial Pacific are near normal, while warm anomalies are now evident in regions further east. When compared with three weeks ago, positive anomalies in the far east of the Pacific, near South America, have strengthened. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific continued to warm through April and early May, effectively replacing most of the anomalously cool sub-surface water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that had persisted since September 2008. A recent map for the 5 days ending 4 May shows warm sub-surface anomalies above +1.0°C evident both in the western and eastern Pacific. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.

An archive of past SST and sub-surface temperature charts is available.

Trade winds weakened right across the equatorial Pacific, most notably in late April and early May following a westerly wind burst in the western Pacific. The latest weekly wind anomalies, shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 4 May, indicate weaker than normal Trades across much of the near-equatorial Pacific.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose slowly during much of April, though started to fall once more late in the month and into early May. The SOI rose from a March value of zero to an April value of +9, but the current approximate 30-day value has fallen back to +7 on 5 May. The Tahiti mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomaly rose once more during April. Prior to March 2009, the Tahiti MSLP had generally been above average since August 2008. The Darwin MSLP fell to slightly below normal by late April. (SOI graph, SOI table).

Cloudiness near the date-line over the central to western Pacific is another important indicator of warm/cool ENSO conditions, as it normally increases/decreases (negative OLR/positive OLR anomalies) during these episodes. Cloudiness near the date-line remained below average in the first half of April, but it has increased to near-normal levels during the past three weeks.

The majority of international dynamic computer models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology predict a continuation of neutral conditions for the tropical Pacific until at least mid-winter. Three of the six models are suggesting ENSO neutral conditions for winter and spring, while three models have outlooks for El Niño conditions to develop. However, models are still having to contend with the March to June "predictability barrier". Given this uncertainty and the wide range of predicted outlooks, continuing neutral conditions is the most likely outcome for the period through winter. Models suggest a return to La Niña conditions is the least likely outcome. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady warming, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely to persist through to at least mid-winter, but with the possibility of El Niño conditions into the spring. Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any strengthening indications of an event. POAMA outlooks for the IOD suggest values will reduce slightly, but remain within the neutral range during winter and spring.

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THE DETAILED SECTION ABOVE IS EXPECTED BY 21ST MAY 2009
Quoting hahaguy:


Which MET Matthews or Weagle?


Neither, it was an off station that I just happen to be flipping through on my way to bed. Never seen the guy before, I am a Weagle fan myself. Pretty much the same tone though, no rain.
Quoting TampaSpin:
CAPE of 3449 in NW Texas......eeechh



Only reason Amarillo isn't in a moderate category from SPC is the complete lack of shear. Look at the 1km and 6km AGL barbs. Same direction. Still has a terrific chance for hail and/or downbursts if things just get started...

This one, from OKC, shows expected shear needed to make nadoes, just not as much CAPE (could still have one or two).


(Click for full size)
What is really amazing is that after IKE till the beginning of April we had no significant rainfalls. Usually Jan and Feb are very wet months here and I think the total for the 2 months at my house was less than an inch of rain. Luckily April brought rain and rain abundant. Now, it seems like we can't work in our garden because of the excessive water in the soil. ugh!
Quoting Seastep:


Naaahhh... TampaSpin's already prepped his deflector shields, I'm sure.


Wanna talk about irony. I lived in Tampa when Charley hit I was there till friday morning at about noon. My dad finally talked me into coming down to PC to be with the family. Fate I guess.. ;)





That pic came from Dr. M's blog on Aug 18, 2008, right before Fay.
69. charlottefl Thanks

Your blog is really well laid out. Great info.


Quoting stillwaiting:
>charlotte:do you hava a simular map for pinnelis county and/or hillsbourogh???...its 4 times as bad as your map.....I'd say next to NO and key west,tampa bay eventually will get there doomsday scenerio,alomost happened durn Hurricane charley,but once again,dodged a BIG bullet...its only a matter of time though.I remember they showed a flood map of st pete when charley was approaching and st pete was 2 islands!!!!!

Florida Division of Emergency Management Storm Surge Maps

Pinellas County Storm Surge Map This is a PDF - good looking map.
Quoting Ossqss:
Am I seeing this right? Those are really high or I am not looking at the appropriate map.


Oklahoma is covered by that purple blob-eeek for those folks.
Year-to-date percent of normal Florida rainfall:



The same as inches from normal:

Dr. M shows that map as percent of normal. But as quantifiable numbers, it is really only the southern 1/4 of the Sierras that is truly lacking in precip.



Some of the Sierras are actually above average and 4 inches would bring most of the state close to average.

And, in the last month, they have been catching up (except for the south).


Quoting stillwaiting:



around 5000 is rare and considered extreme,anything over 1000 could create severe wx....I've never heard of 6400,I don't think its possible???,TS???


Scope out #72
94. Inyo
Atmoaggie, that map indicates 'year to date precipitation' and is largely meaningless for California beacuse the rainy season starts in October. The October-November period was quite dry, although December did get some rain.

Also, to the person who said people should irrigate their lawns extensively in fire areas... although there is some logic to that, we really don't have enough water to all have well irrigated lawns, especially during a drought. You'd be better off planting drought resistant plants such as succulents or native plants selected for their lack of flammability (there are lots of native plants that don't really burn).
95. Inyo
also imho percent average is a lot more useful than deviation from average - a 10 inch defecit might not seem like a lot to someone from Atlanta but in California many areas average less than 20 inches of rain a year.
Anybody taken a look at the the cap over OK tomorrow? A sounding from this morning is a poor representation of the atmosphere during peak heating tomorrow. It don't stand still.

I'm certainly not gonna write off the potential for severe tomorrow, but it is not perfect and far different from the set-up of May 3, 1999.

It ain't always about CAPE either. A moderate risk day before yesterday with CAPE above 3,000 J/Kg. No tornado.

Last week. Same story. Moderate risk, 4,000 J/Kg. One supercell that grew very fast, produced one tornado then went poof!

Wonder why that is?


A forecast sounding for Ardmore, OK. Valid at 1PM CDT, Friday.
Beell - you mean forecasting severe weather can be hard? Wow...
Quoting hahaguy:


So I got a small lake in front of my house , even if my house gets flooded I'm still going to have my supplies.


I live on the bay so I think waves would get me.
Quoting Ossqss:


Scope out #72


I saw that wow!!!,we'll have to wait til tomorrow's soundings to see whats really in store!!!
Quoting charlottefl:


Wanna talk about irony. I lived in Tampa when Charley hit I was there till friday morning at about noon. My dad finally talked me into coming down to PC to be with the family. Fate I guess.. ;)





That pic came from Dr. M's blog on Aug 18, 2008, right before Fay.



thanks!!,those are the 2 islands I was talking about,also did you know this????,pinellis county is the most densely populated county in FL!!!!
10. Orcasystems "Were you not here for the Hurricanes last year... my god there were people screaming about the lack or water and supplies... and where was FEMA.. less then 12 hours after Galveston got hit. That was after the Stay and Die comment.
That was from the same group of idiots who were on TV drinking at a bar across the road from the Beach Wall.
"

I watched Ike coverage live (thanks to a link provided by a Wundergrounder), and the longest&loudest wails came from the HoustonPoliceDepartment. Just how stupid d'ya hafta be to fail to stock supplies for your own emergency relief workers???

About as stupid as the Mayor of NewOrleans. Faced with thousands of folks too poor to be able to afford self-evacuation, he ordered the city's buses and school buses as well as other city vehicles to be parked in the lowest part of NewOrleans. Much better to sink $100million+ of the city's transportation system than to save it as well as save lives.

About as stupid as the Sheriff of the neighboring parish, who used his over-stretched emergency staff to prevent NewOrleaneans from walking out of the city.

About as stupid as Louisiana's and Mississippi's state-employed FEMA managers, who blocked truckloads of private contributions of food&water&clothing&etc donated by outfits such as Wal*Mart and church congregations from reaching the affected areas solely to prove that they could.
101. GBlet
HEY! Check out those capes! I get gotta get busy painting the bullseye! Our forecast mentions baseball size hail!
Quoting Inyo:
Atmoaggie, that map indicates 'year to date precipitation' and is largely meaningless for California beacuse the rainy season starts in October. The October-November period was quite dry, although December did get some rain.

Also, to the person who said people should irrigate their lawns extensively in fire areas... although there is some logic to that, we really don't have enough water to all have well irrigated lawns, especially during a drought. You'd be better off planting drought resistant plants such as succulents or native plants selected for their lack of flammability (there are lots of native plants that don't really burn).


OOOkay, here is departure from normal for the same time period Dr. Masters showed.



I said "Some of the Sierras are actually above average and 4 inches would bring most of the state close to average" and I still mean it. From the looks of it, a 4 inch deficit equates to a 25% to 50% of normal precip in a lot of that state.

Just analyzing what I see.
That post #100 is so off kilter..

Im LOL.

Though mistakes were made in 05 by many officials.
The evacuation before Gustav proved the that lessons learned were not repeated.

As a witness to both events..I saw it personally.
Quoting stillwaiting:


I saw that wow!!!,we'll have to wait til tomorrow's soundings to see whats really in store!!!


thanks!!,those are the 2 islands I was talking about,also did you know this????,pinellis county is the most densely populated county in FL!!!!


If a storm hit Tampa there would probably be a million people homeless from storm surge alone.
Quoting GBlet:
HEY! Check out those capes! I get gotta get busy painting the bullseye! Our forecast mentions baseball size hail!


tossed this out on #32 earlier for I was not sure how to interpret it.

Anybody taken a look at the the cap over OK tomorrow? A sounding from this morning is a poor representation of the atmosphere during peak heating tomorrow. It don't stand still.

No kidding? I doubt anyone here would think so...and if they do, well, (self edited)!
107. GBlet
In reading my local forecast, these storms will move in a NNE fashion. Those capes are explosive with the right amount of shear.
108. Inyo
Atmoaggie, I don't disagree with your point, I just see a lot of people quoting 'year to date' figures and they don't mean much.

In any event, if you are saying this is not an extraordinary drought, I totally agree. It is very typical to have several dry years followed by one really wet year (most years are actually below 'average'). The drought in the 80s was worse and furthermore, historic records and tree ring data show that MUCH worse droughts have hit California in the past few thousand years. In fact we are in a relatively wet period on that scale.

What has changed is the demand - the population has exploded, demand for water is sky-high, and a lot of wasteful practices (see well-watered lawn comment) are leading to a water crisis. In addition, watersheds are degraded in various ways causing further loss of water. I don't even want to think about what would happen if we had a repeat of the drought in hsitoric records from the 1860s... where rain basically competely failed for two rainy seasons in a row.
109. beell
Well, I certainly don't want to over-complicate the thing tf, but it does take more than instability to make a tornado!

SUNDOWNER WINDS

A Report on Significant Warming Events
Occurring in Santa Barbara, California.

Gary Ryan
Weather Service Office
Santa Maria, CA
July 1991
....
These winds are “sundowners,” Santa Barbara’s special version of the Santa Ana regime. Sundowners frequently occur in the late afternoon or evening hours – hence the name. Light sundowners create irregular rises in temperature downtown with gentle offshore breezes. Stronger sundowners, occurring two or three times a year, can create sharp temperature rises, local gale force winds, and significant weather-related problems. Rarely, probably about a half dozen times in a century, an “explosive” sundowner occurs. These extremely strong and hot winds present a dangerous weather situation. In these events, super heated air from the Santa Ynez Valley bursts across the Santa Ynez Mountains and onto the coastal plain, reaching gale force or higher speeds within the city. Dust storms occur, fires can race down the mountain slopes, ....
Quoting CaneWarning:


If a storm hit Tampa there would probably be a million people homeless from storm surge alone.



are you in my area(TPA)???
Quoting beell:
Well, I certainly don't want to over-complicate the thing tf, but it does take more than instability to make a tornado!



LOL. This is true. I read some posts stating that all heck will break out. If it doesn't, I usually don't hear much. You are the exception of course Beell. Keep it up man.
114. GBlet
The shear levels will be low, so that will have an effect, especially in my neck of the woods.
What has changed is the demand - the population has exploded, demand for water is sky-high, and a lot of wasteful practices (see well-watered lawn comment) are leading to a water crisis. In addition, watersheds are degraded in various ways causing further loss of water. I don't even want to think about what would happen if we had a repeat of the drought in hsitoric records from the 1860s... where rain basically competely failed for two rainy seasons in a row.

Absolutely. The sources of freshwater simply do not reliably exist to support current population and practices. Not even debatable.
116. Inyo
There are also historic records of an 'explosive' sundowner that raised temperatures in Santa Barbara from the 60s to about 130 in an hour or two when the sun set one evening. Supposedly, birds fell out of the sky, people were killed, plants were defoliated, etc. For a while it was the unofficial highest temperature recorded in the US, until someone put a station in Death Valley which of course has been a bit hotter.

Santa Barbara has a really weird and extreme microclimate. It also gets extremely heavy rain during the 'pineapple connection' storms that move from the south. This is caused by the same thing that causes the sundowners - the really steep mountains behind town.
Point out ONE misstatement in #100, Patrap, and ya can LOL until ya ROFL.

More to the point, the response to Ike proved that folks on the main learned nothing from Katrina.

More to the point, your Senator's threat to block appointments to Administration posts "until the promise to repair Louisiana has been kept" fails to mention that Louisiana and Mississippi officials diverted federal funds allocated to help the most badly hurt to instead enrich already-wealthy gambling interests, luxury condo builders, high-end real estate developers, land speculators, and similar vultures.

The first thing I did after Katrina was to check for the availability of existing housing stock already on the market for sale before landfall. The funds that your states' officials squandered* could have easily bought enough houses and apartment complexes to give each&every uninsured evacuated family a new home.

* With the blessings of the DubyaAdministration
Well sport..Mary Landrieu is my Senator..

and Muahhhhhhhhh !






LOL
It will be a bad year for fires if they are already getting serious in the spring right after the rainy season---looks like a long hot summer in CA! :(
5.7.2009 8:29 AM

4 Ways Global Warming Increases Wildfire Risk
In Santa Barbara, Calif., at least 20 homes have burned in the latest destructive fire outbreak.


As yet another destructive wildfire sweeps down the California coast, it's time to revisit the global scientific link between global warming and wildfires.

At least 20 homes -- described by Reuters as multimillion dollar mansions -- have burned as the out-of-control wildfire burns toward Santa Barbara.

This fire was caused -- as all fire are -- by local weather conditions coinciding with a spark. In this case, it was a string of hot days when temperature reached over 100 degrees and gusty hot winds of up to 50 mph, along with suspected arson.

The first thing any responsible report about global warming and the weather should say is: There is no way for anyone to say that a single event was caused by global warming. What we can say is that scientists have not only predicted that global warming will increase fire risk, particularly in the Western U.S., but that it has already produced more fires. In fact, increased wildfire risk is among the predictions scientists are most confident in making, when it comes to global warming effects. Even California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has warned that global warming has effectively eliminated the concept of a "fire season," since weather conditions now result in a year-round risk.
What we can say is that scientists have not only predicted that global warming will increase fire risk, particularly in the Western U.S., but that it has already produced more fires.

And we can say other scientists think that is load of bull and pure speculation.
Well Luckily the Planet herself dosent blog nor Watch FOX.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I live on the bay so I think waves would get me.


I didn't know that .You should still have your supplies.
its getting closer now its coming
119. Patrap "Well sport..Mary Landrieu is my Senator.."

Your Senator is also DavidVitter. And I very much doubt that he used his own money to pay for such high-priced entertainment.
I also doubt that MaryLandrau is much better.....otherwise she couldn'ta got elected. Near as I can tell, Louisianans are prouder of their state's reputation for corruption than they are of being the birthplace of jazz.
Quoting CaneWarning:


If a storm hit Tampa there would probably be a million people homeless from storm surge alone.


Most folks forget about the waves on top of the storm surge. That's what can sneak up on ya.
Quoting Ossqss:


Most folks forget about the waves on top of the storm surge. That's what can sneak up on ya.
and lets not forget the back flow what comes in must go out and that going out is were ya disappear
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and lets not forget the back flow what comes in must go out and that going out is were ya disappear


Ya it would be worse than katrina.
lol Patrap!
Quoting stillwaiting:



are you in my area(TPA)???


Yes.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and lets not forget the back flow what comes in must go out and that going out is were ya disappear


I have had folks tell me they are staying in their 3rd floor Apt with their Kayak just in case they needed to leave in a storm. What can ya do but laugh. When it was explained they could see a 20' storm surge in SWFL with 15' waves on top, effectively rolling across their 3rd floor living room, they seemed to re-think things.
Quoting Patrap:
Well Luckily the Planet herself dosent blog


If the planet did that, we would have a major cane in SE FL and in NOLA weekly during the season. lol

If the planet listened to Henry Waxman, all of the ice in the Arctic would evaporate (his word) this summer and raise sea levels by 10s of meters by this time next year.

Nurfika Osman
Anak Krakatau Volcano Alert Raised

Indonesia has raised the warning level for Mount Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait to one level below its top alert, as the volcano becomes increasingly active and spews ash, geologists said on Thursday.

Officials were also closely monitoring another volcano, Mount Kerinci in West Sumatra, which has become more active in the past week.

%u201C[Anak Krakatau] poses a high threat because the eruptions have started spreading,%u201D said Surono, the head of the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center (PVMBG).

He said the volcano has been spewing molten lava up to 1,000 meters into the air this week.

%u201CThis is very dangerous, so we%u2019ve warned local residents and climbers to stay away from the volcano,%u201D he said.

Anton S. Tripanbudi, an observer at the Krakatau monitoring post in Pasauran, Banten, said that people have been warned against going anywhere within three kilometers of the mountain.

%u201CWhen the status was still [at the warning level], they were told to maintain a distance of just one kilometer,%u201D he said.

Anton said that in the 24-hour period leading up to Wednesday at noon, the monitoring facility recorded 55 eruptions, 51 earthquakes and five tremors. But local residents still went about their daily routines, he said.

%u201CThe volcano spewed hot volcanic rocks and ash 79 times during that period,%u201D he said, adding that the eruptions could be heard in Pandeglang, a town some 100 kilometers inland.

Anak Krakatau started emerging from the undersea caldera of what was known as Mount Krakatau in the late 1920s. Krakatau exploded in 1883 in one of the worst eruptions in modern history, blanketing the sky with ash for weeks and causing huge tidal waves that swept the coasts of Java and Sumatra on both sides of the Sunda Strait, killing an estimated 36,000 people.
Sorry I don't know why this one doubled folks.
138. beell
SPC has backed off on the moderate risk for tomorrow with the latest Day 2.

Still at least a 50/50 deal, maybe.

We'll see, as they say





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/MIDWESTERN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH WNWLY FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND
WRN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER E OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH/LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. BOTH THE SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE
MIDWEST U.S. AND THE FRONT LINGERING E OF THE ROCKIES -- AS WELL AS
THE LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE S CENTRAL CONUS -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

...ERN KS/ERN OK INTO MO/AR...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...THOUGH
CAPPING/WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
-- PARTICULARLY S OF THE RED RIVER AND WWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

AS A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE OK/KS/MO
VICINITY.
WITH CAPPING GREATLY LIMITING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF
THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
...WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/SERN
KS...AND EWD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS KS/NRN OK AND THEN SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

WHILE ANY ISOLATED STORM WHICH COULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF THE RED RIVER
WOULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND
AMPLE/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
FORECAST FROM CENTRAL/NERN OK AND SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
HERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD HAIL...AS MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS FARTHER N/W DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE A
SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

...THE MIDWEST AND OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THIS REGION WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
/ALONG THE NERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT/ TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE /ALONG
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY/ AIRMASS EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH MID-LEVEL WNWLYS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE
OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL...THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS SUGGESTS THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

...SERN VA/THE CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS VA/THE CAROLINAS/GA WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH
AMPLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- AIDED BY 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL
WLYS...LOCALLY-ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD
EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AS A WEST-OF-SOUTH
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY-MODULATED...DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE ONSET OF SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.

..GOSS.. 05/06/2009
127. aspectre 12:58 PM CDT on May 07, 2009

Your Senator is also DavidVitter. And I very much doubt that he used his own money to pay for such high-priced entertainment.
I also doubt that MaryLandrau is much better.....otherwise she couldn'ta got elected. Near as I can tell, Louisianans are prouder of their state's reputation for corruption than they are of being the birthplace of jazz.



Well sport...Im a Independent,.so yer still not hitting the Mark either way.

You spend a Lot of Time worrying bout La,..thats cool...for a Handle with no Location.


YOU Misssed Neil at Jazzfest.

I didnt..






..snicker,snort,..cackle
keep on rockin in the free world
Quoting Patrap:
127. aspectre 12:58 PM CDT on May 07, 2009

Your Senator is also DavidVitter. And I very much doubt that he used his own money to pay for such high-priced entertainment.
I also doubt that MaryLandrau is much better.....otherwise she couldn'ta got elected. Near as I can tell, Louisianans are prouder of their state's reputation for corruption than they are of being the birthplace of jazz.



Well sport...Im a Independent,.so yer still not hitting the Mark either way.

You spend a Lot of Time worrying bout La,..thats cool...for a Handle with no Location.


YOU Misssed Neil at Jazzfest.

I didnt..






..snicker,snort,..cackle


OK, I will bite, whats up with the googles?
One has to be prepared,.
Hail and Flood have been Known to visit Jazz Fest.

Its been my Fav Hat since 79..good Sun Screener..and meteorite protection too.



Plus,..it looks cool and goes well with the Portlight T-Shirt I was wearing.
Ok. I don't normally post (unless I have questions) but I'm going to throw this out there. I can't stand hearing people trashing the government about their "response time" relating to Katrina (and Ike) or any other cane. What ever happened to people taking care of themselves and neighbor helping neighbor? When did it become the government's responsibility to make sure I have a place to live and food to eat??

The afternoon before Ike hit, my husband fell off a ladder while boarding up the second story of our house. One of my neighbor's heard him fall and called an ambulance and after much convincing that he had not lost consciousness and did not have a head or back injury they found a hospital that was willing to take him (they were all evacuating). After spending 8 hours in the ER, they discovered he had shattered the bones in one wrist, fractured one ankle and required stitches in his other hand where he fell on the plywood. They stitched him up, put him in braces and advised him to see an orthopedist as soon as he was able (after the storm...).

This is going to be a long-winded comment, but I promise I will get to my point. Let me give you the dynamic of my household at that time. I have an 11 year old daughter that I had sent to her grandmother's house in north Houston (which was at least a lot further from the coast than we were) when I realized we would not be able to evacuate. My mother-in-law, who has tons of health problems and is permanently on dialysis, a friend of mine that evacuated to my house from Bayou Vista (her house was completely destroyed) who had just finished her last round of chemo after having surgery for colon cancer and my husband (who now had only one good appendage).

We had some damage to our roof, which, of course, caused some damage inside the house. Fortunately, it was still habitable. However, our fence was completely down and a storage building was torn apart and spread through 3 of my neighbor's yards (the smallest yard in my subdivision is 1/2 an acre). So, the day after the storm, I'm outside trying to clear all the debris in my yard. I had a walkie-talkie so that all the people in my house would be able to get my attention if they needed anything. After a few hours, I had cleared everything that I could on my own and I'm staring at all the downed sections of fence (510ft of fenceline) wondering how I'm going to manage to drag all of them into a pile when all of a sudden, 3 of my neighbors and their children all appeared to help me. It took everyone, working together, about an hour to stack everything. And then we all, together, moved on to the next house. I've never been more proud of my community. That is how it's supposed to be done. I don't want (or need) the government to take care of me. I don't want them to have that kind of control. And, I think it's actually kind of frightening that people think the government's rightful place is right in the middle of their business, taking care of them.
135- Krakatoa

1883 Explosion heard 3,000 miles away and reverberated 7 times around the planet and dropped the temp 1.2?c



setexsasgal-That is how it went here ass well. MO.City area as soon as the winds slowed enough our family memebers went outside and began clearing the main street into the subdivision of downed branches and large trampolines (they fly rather well). He was rewarded by seeing an ambulance pass into the neighborhood as soon as they had opened a lane of traffic. Then our neighbors joined in began clearing yards of debris. The Texas approach to storm clearing.
Well sport...Im a Independent,.so yer still not hitting the Mark either way.

You spend a Lot of Time worrying bout La,..thats cool...for a Handle with no Location.


Ya, and everything is perfectly on the up and up in Illinois, Boston, Alaska, and everywhere else there are career politicians. You are entirely welcome to have that pipe dream.
Yup..I think ol Blago stole our crown atmo...
setexsasgal----

I agree who heartedly and absoluetley with what you just said. I have the same sentiments towards government intevention. Relying on the government to take care of you is what happens in socialistic countries.

You go get em girl!

Here in the small community where I live everyone joined together and did the same as you guys did. We were not asking for any government assistance and wanted none.

Sorry to hear about your damages and hopefully your family is healed and doing much better now.
That is too cool...


Everyone is doing well. My husband is now my bionic man (has a metal plate, pins & screws in wrist). We had the inside of our house repaired by Christmas. Still working on the fence, though.
All good words from the bloggers post.

Preparation and Knowing that you may be without services after a Calamity is Key to making it thru it. And to be sure,it was everyday folk post K that were doing the necessary rescues,and all the things you mention before help arrived en masse.
Same after Ike in the Surge zones,Cus after K,and Ike it was hard for anyone without a ,Boat or other water vehicle to do Squat.
Truly,Americans pull together in times of despair.
And things can get squirrley in America even on a Calm Summer Day in LA.
AKA Rodney King Verdict rioting.

SO before ya hammer away at another ones woes, reflect on the times that we all share.
Good and Bad.
Faith comes in many forms..but Human Helping Human is what it boils down too.
Everyday.
That's cool charlotte
SETexasgal--

That's great I am glad to hear! Hopefully we will not have another spell of storms this year. If we do though, we will do what all REAL TEXANS do, Get out start working and not complaining!
It appears they save a time lapse of every day, all your webcam uploads. Did I mention I like WU! ;) You should see the grass actually looked green in April compared to what it looks like now.
143. setexsasgal
145. fireflymom

That is how it was in my neighborhood after Hugo.

Those of us who can do so, need to take care of ourselves, families, neighbors and assist in anyway we can. We should not be clogging up resources for those who are in critical need of help (disabled, elderly frail with no family or resources). There is already too much red-tape involved in getting assistance for folks who are truly in dire straights.
I just think it is American to pick up your own slack and do the work to get Your residence back in order! I believe that spirit resides in each and everyone of us... it is inate.
Quoting Patrap:
All good words from the bloggers post.

Preparation and Knowing that you may be without services after a Calamity is Key to making it thru it. And to be sure,it was everyday folk post K that were doing the necessary rescues,and all the things you mention before help arrived en masse.
Same after Ike in the Surge zones,Cus after K,and Ike it was hard for anyone without a ,Boat or other water vehicle to do Squat.
Truly,Americans pull together in times of despair.
And things can get squirrley in America even on a Calm Summer Day in LA.
AKA Rodney King Verdict rioting.

SO before ya hammer away at another ones woes, reflect on the times that we all share.
Good and Bad.
Faith comes in many forms..but Human Helping Human is what it boils down too.
Everyday.


Well said PAT
I hate to admit it, but I actually liked being without power. We went 10 days and it seemed like every night everyone was outside (what else is there to do?). We would take turns cooking (we have a small generator) and grilling. We had more fun hanging out with our neighbors than I would have thought possible. We all had different stores of food and drinks and everyone would bring whatever they had and just hang out.
Well it is offical La Niña is over...

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Summer.

During April 2009, the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, ending the 2008-09 La Niña. Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive anomalies developed in areas of the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST indices were near zero in all Niño regions, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became positive for the first time since mid-August 2008, reflecting an eastward spread of above-average temperatures near thermocline depth (Fig. 4).



Intresting is how all the dynamical models are calling for El Nino..
That's a very common theme after the Storm setex,some folks saw the Milky Way for the First time here post K.
And the stories they all shared were incredible.
Folks revert to what they really are and care about after a calamity.
Each other.
Quoting setexsasgal:
I hate to admit it, but I actually liked being without power. We went 10 days and it seemed like every night everyone was outside (what else is there to do?). We would take turns cooking (we have a small generator) and grilling. We had more fun hanging out with our neighbors than I would have thought possible. We all had different stores of food and drinks and everyone would bring whatever they had and just hang out.


It brings life back how it should be, SLOW! We live in a hustle bustle, go go go, society. A lot of people don't even know who their neighbors are! I will concur with you on the power. I always look forwards to being without it for extended periods of time. Yes, it is inconvenient but for 1 it makes me appreciate it when it comes back on and 2 it brings my busy life to a screeching halt. I bond with my family and friends and have a good ol time doing it.

Sitting around the fire outside roasting marshmellos and singing to the tunes from an old acoustic guitar. There is nothing like it.
look like Krakatau Volcano could be a big one
PAT, you have good words of wisdom, and I like them. As for a lot of people on here...
That was the most stars I have ever seen the night after Charley came through. It was really cool.
165. GBlet
I'm bad, I prefer no power during the winter versus the summer anytime!
I yakk alot..thats all,sometimes we all find a groove.
Its easy to get caught up in fussing over this and that,Im guilty of it too.

But like the aftermath of Ike showed us all here, folks on-line can do much to help when organized and Push forward a common Goal.

Portlight is a PRIME example of the wunderground crowd doing such that.
Im proud to have played a small part in that effort,..along with Hundreds of other folks who donated money,time and personal efforts to ease the suffering we all saw.
Thats the way we all become one.


No power - No A/C :(

Yet, I still have very fond memories of my family and neighbors post Hugo. To this day it has forged bonds that we might not have had otherwise.

Since the freezers were all thawing, we were all eating like kings. Everyone in the neighborhood was contributing to a community pot. Had to cook it all fast. Not only did we eat steak, we had stew made from steak for later!

Ahh... the smell of pine. Waking up to the buzz of power saws.

ADDED: Ohh... and water redolent with tanin (or as I think of it Pine Tea) and a bit of clorox.
Possible Wave. Pretty impressive area of broad mid level rotation over extreme southwestern Africa. CounterClockwise 700mb-850mb flow
Mmmmm steak stew!
Just beginning to see it.

The GFS show the area dissipating, though there maybe enough left with the wave axis for it to be classified.
Will it be 90L?
Quoting CaneWarning:
Will it be 90L?


LOL....

Theres no chance.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Will it be 90L?


No. Nothing is going to survive out there at this time of year. That is absolute.
guys this is May we don't see African storms at this time of the year
Quoting CaneWarning:
Will it be 90L?
90L no but it will be pretty to look at for a little bit
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
guys this is May we don't see African storms at this time of the year


Again, were not looking for them to develop. Just waiting to see which 'wave' gets the official recognition from the TPC.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL....

Theres no chance.


I wasn't sure what you meant when you said it will be classified.
A lot of people think of these scenarios as an all or nothing type event. I have to admit, that I did as well until Ike. I was of the mindset that I would either come home to an intact house, or to a slab as I live on the bay in a pre "flood plain" map house (never flooded built in 64). I am a very self sufficient individual who had a very thorough plan and supply stash with enough food for five days for a family of four, ample fuel for a generator to run for a week, tools,saws etc. We took our food stash and some of the water we had stored when we left for the storm. Everything else we tried to elevate or move to the second floor of our home.

When we returned we were greeted with a house that had trees on the roof and around four feet of water inside. We did not cry about it, or wait for anyone to show up (we were numb). Almost everyone we know was hit by the storm so we knew we were on our own. As a matter of fact, the only people we had showing up in our area to help were those who were wanting to help themselves to your mold covered soaked personal posessions. Around day three we had to start giving our neighbors water because they were all running out, no one saw a FEMA pod unitl day six and we all needed it by then (The men were on average drinikng a case of water individually every day). About that same time we all started playing therapist to each other letting them vent their anger about whatever to you and half an hour later it would be your turn on the couch because some jerk just tried to snag your generator.

Here is what I learned from all this...

1. I have some of the best neighbors in the world.
2. Their are alot of people who seem to lack any morals
3. You really will figure out who your friends are very quickly (I have two)
4. Never understimate the value of an ice cold beer.
5. Fed exed home made cookies from San Antonio rock
6. Most people who say whatever I can do to help are full of it
7. You probably wil not be able to relate to people who had minor damage and then cry about it for a very long time. In fact it is all you can do to not pick them up and shake them. My response quickly became, you know you should really be happy that you only lost a refrigerator worth of food and could not watch TV for a week. Why don't you go home tonight and sleep on an air mattress for a couple of months and get back to me. By the way, be sure to give your kids a hug and a kiss when you tuck them in to their beds.
8. Do not get too upset when your neighbors get 40K from Fema and you get zilch, it will take a while for you to understand but you will when you see their situation a year later.
9. Do not ever say, I will never take (fill in the blank) from a FEMA pod. It makes it easier for the others in line to get through when someone has not been struck by lightning.
10. No matter how many storms you have been through (4 for me truly on the bay), you will never be prepared for every possible scenario that could be presented.

Sorry for the length.....

Boy I may not be able to read the blog this season without yelling at the ones that are "dying" for a hurricane to come and rearrange some one elses life.......
180. GBlet
New local forecast: GIANT HAIL!
Squid28, thanks for sharing that. It's interesting reading other's thoughts on storms. I have been through a direct hit by a hurricane, but at the time I was a child so it would be interesting to see how I would react now.
Double post. Sorry.
I forgot one thing....

11. I will be buying the whole house backup generator to run on natural gas. A friend a few miles inland had one and it was a surreal experience (we crashed on their floor for two weeks after the storm). Come in from swinging sledege hammers and running chain saws for 12 hours and have hot cooked meal,a hot shower, your disgusting clothes washed in a washing machine and sleep in the AC while being able to catch a show on the satellite anytime you wanted. (my kids were twitching from missing Spongebob for five days)
143. 154. 148. - Exactly as it should be. I don't want to take a horrific hit & will leave only if necessary (cat 3 or coming in at night on incoming tide cat 3). We have prepared over the past 8 years. Propane fuel, propane fueled whole house on-demand generator, heavy wind rated shingles on the roof, hurricane shutters for all windows, doors & garage door bracing, home insurance & flood insurance - both up to date & heavy. Home canned products, commercially canned foods, 40 (& adding) cleaned Cloroxed gallon jugs ready to be filled with potable water, medical supplies, 3 gallons of Clorox always on hand being replaced as it is used, plenty of tarps to mitigate storm damage.
Power out with generator problem? Start the grill - move fridge/freezer items to the coolers (have plenty all with ice/dry ice before a storm) & start the grill & smoker. Feed whoever is here with the perishables first. Start a good burn bin. 5 gallon buckets for human waste - outside in a secluded spot for the shy. Sun showers using rain barrel water - gravity driven.
Not 100% - debris can be a refuge for a copperhead or rabid raccoon but we plan to be careful... & autonomous. Folks around us are much the same way & we all help each other.

It Is Free Americans That Will Save Us, Not Government!
Autonomy, personal responsibility & character go a lot farther than government "assistance" or "benefits". Applies in everyday life & disasters of all magnitudes.
Quoting GBlet:
New local forecast: GIANT HAIL!


Where the HAIL are you talking about?
GBlet - I'm with you. I would take 20 below any day vs 85 temp and 70 dewpoint!
187. GBlet
Central Kansas
By golly, said blob, actually has a probability rating


189. GBlet
Watching the first little clouds begin to pop...
Quoting GBlet:
Watching the first little clouds begin to pop...




Current watch in that area
191. GBlet
Oss, I am in the middle of the state. I don't want to have baseball or larger size hail.
my kids were twitching from missing Spongebob for five days

HAH! I have seen that look! They start staring off as if there were a TV on front of them, even if there isn't! (and my kids do not even get an hour of TV per day) LOL
193. GBlet
Or they just follow you around and stare at you as if you can fix the problem but you choose not to.
Quoting atmoaggie:
my kids were twitching from missing Spongebob for five days

HAH! I have seen that look! They start staring off as if there were a TV on front of them, even if there isn't! (and my kids do not even get an hour of TV per day) LOL


And the adults who crave their fix of Oprah or Dr. Phil :)
Hey everyone...How's the pre-season blob watching coming along?
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just posted a SEVERE WEATHER Blog update for Friday.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/apps/blog/show/779647-tornado-f5-s-possbile-on-friday-


Not to tell you what to do but..even though you rarely post your website links..come hurricane season you'll get banned extremely quick for just posting it once..I know cause I have my own site.
That wave should of already been classified..it shows such a defined signature and if we can see it, I know the TPC can.
Quoting CaneAddict:
Hey everyone...How's the pre-season blob watching coming along?


Can you believe some are Africa watching already. No chance anything can develop in that area. Water is to cold and too much Shear and Dry air. No of key elements are favorable for anything in that area.
Yeah..shear is extremely hostile..and as you said none of the ingrediants are there..the only place i'm really watching for development is the east pacific..and I have a feeling they will see there first named storm really soon.
Yeah, no May storm has ever formed that far out. It's in the same areas as June... just off the east coast or in the Caribbean.


Agreed.
If I may ask, would anyone be willing to give up their WU blog until Dec to allow for posts by individuals on their personal prediction of this years season totals ?

IE, # named storms, # hur, # major hur, # CAT 5 storms as a tie breaker of date of first storm formation?

This would be documented in the blog posts and available until season end. The winner could boast of owning the Virtual trophy for their first rate prognosticative prowess.

I am stickin with my original 13-9-4- 2 CAT 5 - one fish, one Yucatan. Several of you have already provided your guess several blogs back. Just a thought

-- This was originally brought forth by Cyberteddy I believe.
I don't know why there is a debate whether the African feature will develop. Its just a feature that may possible be the first wave of the year and the reason why it is such an importance (to me atleast) is for comparisions with previous years. For example the first wave of 2008 was May 2 which is tied with 2005. The tropical Atlantic is far from supporting tropical activity and many of us know it so by reinstating the obvious is a puzzle to me.

First Tropical Waves (2004-2008)
Quoting Ossqss:
If I may ask, would anyone be willing to give up their WU blog until Dec to allow for posts by individuals on their personal prediction of this years season totals ?

IE, # named storms, # hur, # major hur, # CAT 5 storms as a tie breaker of date of first storm formation?

This would be documented in the blog posts and available until season end. The winner could boast of owning the Virtual trophy for their first rate prognosticative prowess.

I am stickin with my original 13-9-4- 2 CAT 5 - one fish, one Yucatan. Several of you have already provided your guess several blogs back. Just a thought

-- This was originally brought forth by Cyberteddy I believe.


Happens every year and what's the point?....Self congratulation by a few (Bastardi & Colorado State included) over a lucky/unscientific guess at the end of the season?............It will either be an average/below average/or above average season, and, the jury is still out until we start to get a clearer picture going into July....
Quoting Ossqss:
If I may ask, would anyone be willing to give up their WU blog until Dec to allow for posts by individuals on their personal prediction of this years season totals ?

IE, # named storms, # hur, # major hur, # CAT 5 storms as a tie breaker of date of first storm formation?

This would be documented in the blog posts and available until season end. The winner could boast of owning the Virtual trophy for their first rate prognosticative prowess.

I am stickin with my original 13-9-4- 2 CAT 5 - one fish, one Yucatan. Several of you have already provided your guess several blogs back. Just a thought

-- This was originally brought forth by Cyberteddy I believe.


I don't really use my blog for anything in particular, so I don't mind.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Happens every year and what's the point?....Self congratulation by a few (Bastardi & Colorado State included) over a lucky/unscientific guess at the end of the season?............It will either be an average/below average/or above average season, and, the jury is still out until we start to get a clearer picture going into July....


The point is to have some fun and win if possible. Whats the point in playing baseball or a video game. Primarily, entertainment.

Should be gone by tomorrow.

That would be awesome Cotillion, and thanks for lettin us play. If I can help just let me know.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "EMONG" has weakened into a tropical storm after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and is now off the coast of Isabela.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
==================================

At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Emong (Chan-hom) located at 17.6ºN 122.8ºE or 110 kms East of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (55 knots) near the center with gustiness up to 120 km/h (65 knots). The storm is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Warning Signals #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Apayao
2.Kalinga
3.Mt. Province
4.Ifugao
5.Nueva Vizcaya
6.Quirino
7.Aurora
8.Babuyan Gr.of Islands
9.Calayan Gr.of Islands

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.
Quoting Ossqss:


The point is to have some fun and win if possible. Whats the point in playing baseball or a video game. Primarily, entertainment.



Baseball and video games don't kill people. Leave the predictions for serious forecasters who can actually help alert others. Don't get your enjoyment from destruction. I realize this blog will soon be full of the hurricane addicts posting non-stop, but please try to keep the excitement over destruction tamer this year.
Quoting Ossqss:
That would be awesome Cotillion, and thanks for lettin us play. If I can help just let me know.


Sure, may drop a WU-mail.
Quoting chilliam:


Baseball and video games don't kill people. Leave the predictions for serious forecasters who can actually help alert others. Don't get your enjoyment from destruction. I realize this blog will soon be full of the hurricane addicts posting non-stop, but please try to keep the excitement over destruction tamer this year.


I hope your day gets better. This is not about destruction to me. This is about weather.
To say we enjoy destruction is putting words into our mouth. Somthing I dislike immensly.
Quoting Ossqss:


I hope your day gets better. This is not about destruction to me. This is about weather.
Sounds like harmless clean fun on a free blog to me to those so inclined. If you don't want to see it, don't click the little thingy..Go for it...
Subject: Category Two Cyclone Overland Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (980 hPa) located at 17.3N 122.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 125.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 18.9N 125.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 19.9N 123.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Vortex95:
To say we enjoy destruction is putting words into our mouth. Somthing I dislike immensly.


This.
Quoting theshepherd:
Sounds like harmless clean fun on a free blog to me to those so inclined. If you don't want to see it, don't click the little thingy..Go for it...


I agree. I tend not to participate in these things, but cannot claim that it bothers me a bit if others do. There are worse things to occupy oneself with.

If those with an issue just do not like the suffering that hurricanes bring, I could say the same about a forecasting contest in the summer in SE LA, but I am not going to harp on those that wish to get involved in it.
Quoting chilliam:


Baseball and video games don't kill people. Leave the predictions for serious forecasters who can actually help alert others. Don't get your enjoyment from destruction. I realize this blog will soon be full of the hurricane addicts posting non-stop, but please try to keep the excitement over destruction tamer this year.
iam here for the trackin,beleive me when i tell you i can track it right to your front door if thats where its going
the destruction is something that cannot be helped . I don't think anyone here wishes destruction upon anyone or anything on this or any blog. however ma nature cannot be rerouted to or liking, she does what she wants when she wants. I think all the people here are much more interested in trying to forwarn the masses of the impending storm. The fury of a storm is a natural wonder it's hypnotizing the power is mind blowing. I've sat out many storms living in the keys and in south Fla. for the last thirty+ years. been out in a few looking for my dog in winds that were tearing roofs off right in front of me and I was not being smart doing it. It's more about saving people than being excited about the ruination of property that gonna happen. this is a wonderful place to get leading edge info and I would like to thank all of you who have taught me the things that I have been able to absorb keep up the good work
I perhaps inappropriately called out landings from the previous discussion, which I can understand being an issue. I believe it would be more politically correct to only address numbers, period and a date of the first storm being named. That way, it keeps any bias or bad luck out of the picture.
"I agree. I tend not to participate in these things, but cannot claim that it bothers me a bit if others do. There are ***worse things to occupy oneself with.***"

ROFL...you're preaching to the choir. Like pulling troll tails. But, I never do that...

Quoting theshepherd:
"I agree. I tend not to participate in these things, but cannot claim that it bothers me a bit if others do. There are ***worse things to occupy oneself with.***"

ROFL...you're preaching to the choir. Like pulling troll tails. But, I never do that...



Oh, no. Those comments were really in addition to what you said, shep. Not directed towards you at all...
Quoting Ossqss:
I perhaps inappropriately called out landings from the previous discussion, which I can understand being an issue. I believe it would be more politically correct to only address numbers, period and a date of the first storm being named. That way, it keeps any bias or bad luck out of the picture.
It's your show. You don't have to back down....The NHC and basicaly every other weather prediction association in the world does the same thing every year.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Oh, no. Those comments were really in addition to what you said, shep. Not directed towards you at all...

:>)
Quoting theshepherd:
It's your show. You don't have to back down....The NHC and basicaly every other weather prediction association in the world does the same thing every year.


Forecasting is basically educated guessing. Its not a matter of backing off, we want participation and fun for all. I would think keeping it to numbers only and a date would be best so as not to taint the fun in any way, since it has already been dissed by opposition to the basic premise of having some good clean fun ! I would say the final call should come from our generous host who has kindly offered his blog as the playing field. Thanks again Cotillion !

Edit, interestingly enough, one of the featured blogs still listed on this site was a forecast competition, go figure :)
Quoting Ossqss:


Forecasting is basically educated guessing. Its not a matter of backing off, we want participation and fun for all. I would think keeping it to numbers only and a date would be best so as not to taint the fun in any way, since it has already been dissed by opposition to the basic premise of having some good clean fun ! I would say the final call should come from our generous host who has kindly offered his blog as the playing field. Thanks again Cotillion !


Feel free to give me some ideas and suggestions. I'm just providing a space, after all. :)
Quoting Cotillion:


Feel free to give me some ideas and suggestions. I'm just providing a space, after all. :)


U have WU mail :)
what kind of climatological impact, potentially could we see from Krakatau???
Quoting Tazmanian:
what kind of climatological impact, potentially could we see from Krakatau???


Here is what was tossed earlier from Wiki. I don't think anyone can really know until after the fact. If it does a number like the 1800's, it could be significant. Some links on it and the resulting Tsunami from 1883/

Link

Link

Link
Now this is one kid that has earned a little SquareBob...maybe with a little parental supervision.

"After two frustrating days, searchers in Missouri have found alive a 3-year-old boy who wandered away from his home in the rugged hills of the Mark Twain National Forest, the Associated Press reports.

Joshua Childers, who slipped away from his family's mobile home near Arcadia in rural southeast Missouri Monday morning, was in remarkably good condition, the AP says."

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2009/05/3yearold-boy-found-alive-in-missouri-forest.html

I wonder if this is not a result of that misguided thumb latch deadbolt code. You cannot pass building inspection with anything else.
I can tell ya, we changed to keyed deadbolts on moving day. My then-18 month old made it half way to the street once, the day before, because he was adept enough to turn it, but too immature to recognize that he shouldn't be leaving by himself.
Quoting Ossqss:


Here is what was tossed earlier from Wiki. I don't think anyone can really know until after the fact. If it does a number like the 1800's, it could be significant. Some links on it and the resulting Tsunami from 1883/

Link

Link

Link



thanks
This may miss Macon Georgia this time:
The powerful eruption of such an enormous volume of lava and ash injected significant quantities of aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide oxidised in the atmosphere to produce a haze of sulfuric acid droplets, which gradually spread throughout the stratosphere over the year following the eruption. The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is thought to have been the largest since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, with a total mass of SO2 of about 17 million tons being injected—the largest volume ever recorded by modern instruments (see chart and figure).


from here


Link
Quoting RTLSNK:
This may miss Macon Georgia this time:


Rob had so much to fear.
237 - stat - LOL - Nah, just weather stuff.
Quoting Ossqss:
If I may ask, would anyone be willing to give up their WU blog until Dec to allow for posts by individuals on their personal prediction of this years season totals ?

IE, # named storms, # hur, # major hur, # CAT 5 storms as a tie breaker of date of first storm formation?

This would be documented in the blog posts and available until season end. The winner could boast of owning the Virtual trophy for their first rate prognosticative prowess.

I am stickin with my original 13-9-4- 2 CAT 5 - one fish, one Yucatan. Several of you have already provided your guess several blogs back. Just a thought

-- This was originally brought forth by Cyberteddy I believe.


Since I don't use my wunderground blog..I'd be happy to do that...it would be something interesting to keep us busy untill the start of the season :) Let me know if anyone wants me to do it..and i'll set my blog for it :)
Hey TAZ, I,m glad you asked about that volcano, that was some great reading from those 3 links from Ossqss. Thanks
Hi everyone....Any news about 2009 hurricane
242. JRRP
Link
El Niño ?
Quoting JRRP:
Link
El Niño ?


Even if El Nino were to develop, there is typically a couple month lag period between the start of El Nino, and the onset of the conditions associated with the event. A good example is 2004, where, though an El Nino had developed over the summer, immense activity occurred until October.
Quoting Ossqss:
I perhaps inappropriately called out landings from the previous discussion, which I can understand being an issue. I believe it would be more politically correct to only address numbers, period and a date of the first storm being named. That way, it keeps any bias or bad luck out of the picture.
Well, maybe leave out landings - but why not include where the storm will form - nothing to specific (GOM, Caribbean, Bahamas, East Coast CONUS, Mid Atlantic, Coastal Africa)

We will all be better served if those who worry that this is somehow taking joy in tragedy, would instead worry about how he/she can contribute to assisting folks who are affected by these storms. Many who will play, also contribute in a positive way.
"Most international coupled climate models predict further warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, with SSTs remaining in the ENSO-neutral range until at least mid-winter. About half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009, but the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum. As the period from March-June is the preferred El Niño genesis period, Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any indications of an event."
Australian Gov't ENSO Wrap-Up
Quoting TampaMishy:
Hi everyone....Any news about 2009 hurricane


Mishyyyyy :)

Apparently we are going to have one :)
ITCZ is sure active lately.

1 - 0 Canucks... 8 min left
Quoting Ossqss:
If I may ask, would anyone be willing to give up their WU blog until Dec to allow for posts by individuals on their personal prediction of this years season totals ?

IE, # named storms, # hur, # major hur, # CAT 5 storms as a tie breaker of date of first storm formation?

This would be documented in the blog posts and available until season end. The winner could boast of owning the Virtual trophy for their first rate prognosticative prowess.

I am stickin with my original 13-9-4- 2 CAT 5 - one fish, one Yucatan. Several of you have already provided your guess several blogs back. Just a thought

-- This was originally brought forth by Cyberteddy I believe.


Yessur it was. I'm sticking with 15-8-4, 1 CAT 5 (Seeing as anything with the letter I seems to be the strongest and most destructive, and the fact that IDA replaced my most feared hurricane of all time, Isabel, Im betting on Ida being the Category 5)
2 Fish (hopefully ALL Fish, a slow moving TD in florida would help alot though)
Looks like SPC relaxed a bit on the risk for tomorrow.

Good Evening everyone!

Back on the blogs finally, seems like I missed so much since I was on earlier today at work. Still nothing brewing, but soon enough there will be.

Probability map actually gives the Africa blob a chance, Which we all know is not possible. Also, map gives a probability to the Low above Colombia/Venezuela.

Happy blogging everyone! Looking forwards to the jabber tonight! Btw... just got back from fishing... no luck :(
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yessur it was. I'm sticking with 15-8-4, 1 CAT 5 (Seeing as anything with the letter I seems to be the strongest and most destructive, and the fact that IDA replaced my most feared hurricane of all time, Isabel, Im betting on Ida being the Category 5)
2 Fish (hopefully ALL Fish, a slow moving TD in florida would help alot though)


All I know is if we get to my name.. you guys are hooped. Sam is to far down the list.
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Quoting Orcasystems:


All I know is if we get to my name.. you guys are hooped. Sam is to far down the list.
I wonder how many of the names we have covered.

Ana.. do we have an Ana on board?
Bill.. I am sure there must be a few.
Claudette.. Anyone?
Danny.. must be a few of those
.....
Kate - That's me
.....
Sam - That's Orca

Help me fill in the blanks
Cotillion and CaneAddict, thank you both for your assistance in gaining clearity. Your kind offers to use your blogs provided the path for me to see that I don't use mine. So here ya go folks.

If you want to participate in a 2009 Hurricane prediction contest, post your picks on my blog. It is not really doing anything else.

You will pick numbers for --

Total named storms
Total Hurricanes
Total Major Hurricanes
Total Cat 5 Storms
Date of the first named storm in the Atlantic

It is simple, easy, and will be documented by post quote by me for the records.

A Virtual trophy will be the prize, with your name on it for a period of one year.

Just like anything else, you stand as good of a chance as anyone right now.

Enter up to June 1 or the date of the first named storm if earlier. We will scrutinize any entry the day of the first named storm if prior to June. L8R
Hi Orca!
255. Ossqss
Well... since you are going to keep us honest and hold us to what we say (sigh), I guess, I need to give it a bit more thought before I commit.
Think, Think, Think....
Quoting TampaMishy:
Hi Orca!


Where have you been hiding young lady??
Quoting KEHCharleston:
255. Ossqss
Well... since you are going to keep us honest and hold us to what we say (sigh), I guess, I need to give it a bit more thought before I commit.
Think, Think, Think....


I added my guesstimates to his blog :)
Ok... through thinking. I posted to the WU Picks for Tropical Season 2009

12/8/4/0 May 23

Ya heard it here first.

Quoting Orcasystems:


I added my guesstimates to his blog :)
Orca, I don't see it.

EDITED: Nevermind. I see it now.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Orca, I don't see it.


He changed the blog.....
Mine was in his previous blog

26. Orcasystems 2:49 AM GMT on May 08, 2009
Total named storms 13
Total Hurricanes 8
Total Major Hurricanes 3
Total Cat 5 Storms 1
Date of the first named storm in the Atlantic

May 21 st.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Hey TampaMishy...long time no talk..How are you hun?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Orca, I don't see it.

EDITED: Nevermind. I see it now.


Awww man, he is playing favourites.. just cause you have that stick!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Awww man, he is playing favourites.. just cause you have that stick!


BTW... umm did Shep ever clean it??
Quoting Orcasystems:


Awww man, he is playing favourites.. just cause you have that stick!
I am thinking of a production line of stir sticks. Never be without one!
Quoting Orcasystems:


BTW... umm did Shep ever clean it??
I decided that I rather not have THAT one back.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
I am thinking of a production line of stir sticks. Never be without one!


I don't need a stick.. I have a Halo :)
We all know he who wears a halo.. would never say anything that could be mistaken for a stir stick remark :)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "EMONG" continues to weaken as it moves away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
==================================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Emong (Chan-hom) located at 17.6ºN 123.8ºE or 200 kms east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 knots) near the center with gustiness up to 80 km/h (45 knots). The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 7 knots.

Warning Signals #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Apayao
2.Kalinga
3.Mt. Province
4.Ifugao
5.Nueva Vizcaya
6.Quirino
7.Aurora
8.Babuyan Gr. of Islands
9.Calayan Gr. of Islands

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

However, the Eastern sections of Luzon and Visayas will have scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
KEH
ORCA

you all are cracking me up!
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
KEH
ORCA

you all are cracking me up!


watch yourself, she has a mean streak :) Right now your safe.. umm her stick is in for cleaning.

Give us you picks for the season on my blog ! Lets see who gets lucky !

On a different note-- Scary numbers they toss about.

US swine flu victims had chronic health problems

Swine Flu Cases Widen Reach With %u2018Epidemic Curve%u2019 (Update2)

Nightal
Quoting Orcasystems:


watch yourself, she has a mean streak :) Right now your safe.. umm her stick is in for cleaning.




HAHA! I try to stay on the pleasant end of KEH's stick... I like the ergonomic gripped handles... They make holding the stick so comfortable. I believe I may have used 1 of her sticks the other night... but it could have been one I found somewhere...lol!
The force is strong with this one ..LOL

Wow! The high is def setting up strong
Quoting KEHCharleston:
A coupla months ago, I thought that tornadoes were the scariest weather happenings. After reading Master's blog this morning, have moved fires into that category.

A question for those of you on the west coast who live in seasonal fire prone areas. How do you plan ahead for fire season? I am guessing that you have your important papers and family photos in a container for quick grabbing, if you need to leave. Do you clear brush from the house, or is that considered useless. Does it change what building materials you use?

Very scary


I moved here from Los Angeles and here are a few things that we learned there. All shake shingles were no longer approved. Eucalyptus trees grow rampant there and they are a huge fuel source for any fire. There are many fire break roads in the hills and everyone is told to remove any debris from the immediate area of your home, it helps the firefighters get a handle on things. Like in Dr. M's blog though, these sundowner winds are quite intense and blow the fire down a hill - a little opposite from the santa anna's which will cause the fires to jump hilltop to hilltop. The fires are no fun and they do make evacuation mandatory. Fires are really not something to play around with.
I hope that Bermuda high moves some where else this season or look out fl/gulf. Also hope that small disturbance at 75/25 doesnt get sucked up north and holds together for S.Fl. we could use a thunderstorm at this point as long as it doesnt start a fire.
hello, hello is there anyone out there, is there anyone at all.
Alright then I am leaving but most excellent star trek movie made to date. Gene Roddenberry would be proud.
Morning all! You know you live in S. FL when your night time low is almost 75 degrees lol..

68*F in Macon, Ga this morning, 96% humidity, wind is calm, partly cloudy, high in the mid eighties for today. Time for coffee.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
I wonder how many of the names we have covered.

Ana.. do we have an Ana on board?
Bill.. I am sure there must be a few.
Claudette.. Anyone?
Danny.. must be a few of those
.....
Kate - That's me
.....
Sam - That's Orca

Help me fill in the blanks


LOL mine was one of the first male names retired...
I don't think I have ever seen my name on the hurricane list...