WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Sunday's 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on December 14, 2007

Sunday's 'Noreaster looks to be a wet one, thanks in part to Tropical Storm Olga. Visible satellite images show the remains of Olga continue to spin in the Western Caribbean, generating a bit of shower activity that may give a wet day to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Wind shear over Olga's remains is 40 knots and rising, so no redevelopment is expected. On Saturday, the progenitor of Sunday's 'Noreaster is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will pull the remains of Olga into it, making for a very wet storm when it hits the Northeast U.S. Expect heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations to inland regions of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia and New York City. Boston will get a horrible mix of snow, sleet and rain, which could shut down Logan Airport for a time Sunday. Minor coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds is expected along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday. With some significant freezing rain coupled with strong winds expected in many regions, falling tree limbs will cause widespread power outages.

Consult the Northeast Weather blog for a more detailed analysis of this weekend's storm.

Jeff Masters
Looking for a melt down today

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. JLPR
lol Weather456 that what they most say for the north hemisphere ''weird, winter in December, January and February'' lol
1002. JLPR
nite Weather456
As of 0000 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04R [997 hPa] located near 18.5ºS 63.2ºE, or 820 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Gale Warning Area
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 19.9S 60.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
The system has accelerated over the last six hours. It should keep on regulary tracking towards Mascarenes Islands, and could temporarily encounter less unfavorable conditions for intensification (Minimal Moderate Tropical Storm stage could be reached within the next 12 hours). Nevertheless, it should not strengthen further (Due to too cool sea surface temperatures and poorly favorable conditions) and weaked as it comes closer to Mauritius Island.

Winds extension is measured thanks to satellite imagery data. Winds extension is wider in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
and thats the end of the bad weather see ya next time.
1006. P451
I must say this nor'easter was certainly a huge disappointment for me. I live in Central Jersey a few miles from the coast.

All we had was a few sleet pellets late last evening then about six hours of moderate rain with a few heavy pockets.

I think the most interesting part of this storm has been the wind on the back side of it. Probably hitting about 40-45 in gusts - actually caused a 2 hour power outage due to a fallen tree on a main line.

That's it though.

Amazed to see a storm so hyped but then watch it get blown out. A huge dry slot between the double barrel lows turned this lion into a lamb for the most part.

Haven't had a real good storm up here in quite some time so to read of this thing's power for over a week only to be impressed by it's back side wind is a huge disappointment.

As of 0600 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [992 hPa] located near 19.5ºS 62.0ºE, or 665 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.0

Gale Warning Area
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 20.4S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 58.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
The system has accelerated over the last 12 hours towards a trough shifting in its southwest it has also intensified during last night to a moderate tropical storm, which Mauritius Meteorological Services has named "Celina" at 4:30am UTC. Celina is expected to keep on tracking rapidly southwestward within the next 48 hours and then recurving linked to the rebuilding subtropical high pressures. The system has probably reached its maximum intensity and environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable with a weak polar inflow linked to the shifting trough in its south and a not sufficent energetic potential on cooler sea surface temperatures.
Send a refrigerated truck to Vermont and I'll send you a truckload of snow from my back yard! :~)

Just went out and shovelled again, especially to be able to put some seed down in strategic places, to encourage the birds first thing in the morning. A rabbit had passed through, and the deer cleaned out the feeders out front. (I can't see the feeders out back until daylight.)

We have a total so far of 14" in this storm, so 26" on the ground in general... and it's still coming down at a good clip here. This could be Lake Effect snow off of Lake Champlain.

We'll see what's out there come daylight.

Our friend's son made it home to Vermont from California...rerouted through Cincinnati instead of NYC. His mom gallantly plowed the driveway with a backhoe to be able to go fetch him! Ah, the will of a mother whose child is coming home on holiday. The mail carriers have nothing over moms!

Take care, everyone! ♥
Moderate Tropical Storm Celina (04R)

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Curved Band 0.35 arc

Current Intensity: CI 2.3

Adjustments by MET: MET sugguest CI 2.0 but based on increase organization, the CI will be kept at 2.3.

Final Estimate: CI 2.0

Dvorak Tends:
Past Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.0
0330 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1300 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1730 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1030 UTC 17 DEC - CI 2.3

Tropical Invest 97S

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern Type: 2 Curved bands 0.30 arc

Current Intensity: CI 1.7

Adjustments: Met agrees.

Final Estimate: CI 1.7

Dvroak Trends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7

good morning to all
Good morning all! I have just done a full update on my website for those who want to check it out.

It reached 47 here in Cooper City, FL this morning when I went for a 8-mile early morning run like I talked about last night. Felt great.

I hope everyone made it through the storm without much damage and/or injury since it looks like this system beat up the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest pretty good over the past few days.
Where is everyone this morning?
1015. Patrap
Sleeping in..its cold.
Good luck JFV!
1019. NEwxguy
Gm all,only Dec.17th and I'm tired of winter.
hey cchs, where you located at? the reason i asked, I was curious at the cchs and what it stands for.
1021. Patrap
Winter dont start till Friday..HAng in there.
morning...got just about a foot of snow.
the storm was wussy by my standards, but its good fort buiding stuff.
1023. NEwxguy
weather service calls winter Dec,Jan,Feb.
Winter in b-lo lasts from November to April. :oS
I am, however looking forward to the days getting longer. This winter solstice crap brings me down. The next week is the darkest all year...that's depressing. This is the Darkest Monday... ugh...
Tropical Cyclone 97S

1500 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution.

Adjustment: Central Cold Cover (CCC) Pattern will be used.

Current Intensity: CI 2.2

Dvorak Tends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2

Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution

not a UFO or CDO but the coldest cloud tops.
LOL...bein' silly