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Summer Weather Watch: Keep an Eye on These Five Possibilities

By: Bob Henson 4:57 PM GMT on May 22, 2015

It’s Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the U.S. summer season, and millions are wondering what kind of weather the next three months will bring. Seasonal predictions have their limits any time of year, and that’s especially true in summer, when upper-level winds are weaker and local influences play a larger role. Moreover, the largest single influence on year-to-year climate variability--the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--is often at low ebb in the northern summer. Not so this year. An unseasonable El Niño event is now approaching moderate strength and is projected to continue intensifying through the summer, perhaps reaching record or near-record strength for the time of year by August. Instead of the typical lack of a summertime push from El Niño or La Niña, we’re thus left with a much different kind of prediction challenge: a summer setup so unusual that we have few analogs to go by. With that caveat, I’ll stick my neck out and offer a Top Five List (with apologies to David Letterman) of things I’ll be watching for as the lazy, crazy, and occasionally hazy days of summer unfold.



Figure 1. Departures from average temperature across the U.S. for the summers of 1982 and 1997, both of which led into strong El Niño events. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


Figure 2. The weather prediction firm WSI is calling for relatively mild conditions this summer across the bulk of the United States, with unusual heat confined mainly to the western U.S. and Florida. Image credit: WSI.


Cool, man, cool
The summers of 1982 and 1997, which preceded the two strongest El Niño events on record, were cooler than average across most of the United States (see Figure 1 above). No analog is perfect, but based in part on the patterns observed in those two years, “we expect the weakest nationwide cooling demand since at least 2009,” says WSI in its summer energy outlook for 2015 (Figure 2). Other years with at least a moderate Oceanic Niño Index value (at least +1.0) in Jun-Jul-Aug include 1972, 1965, and 1957; all but 1957 had widespread below-average summer temperatures. Precipitation signals for the summer are less straightforward, although during winter El Niño tends to bring wetter-than-average conditions across the southern half of the United States. The strong subtropical jet stream that’s fed much of the low-latitude U.S. rainfall over the last month may weaken as we get into summer, then restrengthen in the fall, but signals remain positive for widespread summer moisture. The average of a variety of climate models assembled through the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) suggests relatively wet conditions across much of the nation, with a cooler-than-average pocket in the nation’s heartland and relatively warm temperatures close to the coasts. These tendencies are reflected in the National Weather Service summer outlook (see Figure 3 below). The central U.S. already has a head start toward a fairly mild summer due to the extremely wet conditions across most of the Plains over the last month. Even when the rains abate and the summer sun kicks in, some of that energy will go toward evaporating surface-based moisture, rather than heating up the ground and the surface air.




Figure 3. Seasonal predictions from the National Weather Service (June-August) showing where the odds are leaning for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). “EC” denotes equal chances of above- or below-average conditions. Image credit: NWS/Weather Prediction Center.


For fire and heat, head northwest
Landscapes are parched from most of California up to the interior of Alaska, as well as adjacent northwest Canada. A major high-latitude heat wave sent temperatures on Thursday in Barrow, AK, up to 47°F, the warmest ever observed so early in the season and only the second time that temperature has been reached before June (more here from the Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman). The warm temperatures have triggered unprecedented flooding that’s closed more than 50 miles of the Dalton Highway, a key route through northern Alaska. It may be a particular rough season for wildfires across those higher-elevation forests where snow was extremely scant this past winter, from the Sierras north through the Cascades and into British Columbia.

Hurricanes aplenty in the northeast Pacific
All signs point toward a blockbuster year for tropical cyclone activity in the northeast Pacific basin, a region favored by the proximity to unusually warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with El Niño. SSTs are already more than 1°C (1.8°F) above average over a large swath of the region where northeast Pacific hurricanes typically form. This morning the National Hurricane Center is investigating two potential tropical cyclones for possible development in the northeast Pacific, and models suggest that one of these could become the the farthest-west tropical cyclone on record for this basin so early in the year. It’s not out of the question that at least one northeast Pacific tropical cyclone will move toward Baja California later this summer, perhaps bringing heavy rain and wind to the southwest U.S. In addition, the northwest Pacific is off to a rip-roaring season, with three Category 5 storms to date, the most ever recorded so early in the year. Conditions should lean toward more tranquility across the North Atlantic, where El Niño effects will likely lead to a below-average year for tropical cyclone activity. NOAA will issue its Atlantic hurricane outlook on Wednesday, May 27.


Figure 4. Unusually early warmth now across Alaska and western Canada may push into the Arctic next week, as shown by temperature anomalies predicted by the 0000 GMT Thursday run of the GFS model for 0000 GMT Wednesday, May 27. Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.com/University of Maine.


Another crucial year for Arctic sea ice
The extent of sea ice in and near the Arctic is already close to record-low values for this time of year. Now that we’re approaching the summer solstice, a key variable that will shape ice melt is the extent of cloudiness over the next few weeks; clear skies allow the round-the-clock sunlight of the midsummer Arctic to have maximum impact on the ice. Long-range models project that the heat wave across northwest Canada and Alaska will push still further north next week, sending temperatures close to or above the freezing mark across a large swath of the western Arctic weeks ahead of schedule. This could result in widespread formation of melt ponds atop the ice, which absorb additional heat from the sun and hasten further melting. It’s too soon to say for sure--the weather in June and July will play a huge role--but I’d consider a new record-low extent for Arctic ice a real possibility for 2015.

Taking aim at a new global heat record
This year is already the warmest in global records for the period January through April. El Niño tends to warm Earth’s atmosphere (by suppressing the upwelling of cold water and spreading oceanic heat over a large area, where it can warm the air above). So barring any major volcanic eruptions, we can expect the next three months to keep this year rolling toward a likely, if dubious, victory over 2014 in the troublesome global-heat race.

Across the soaked Plains, a memorable Memorial Day weekend
Just when it seemed more water couldn’t possibly fall over Texas and Oklahoma, yet another Pacific storm system will wring out more heavy rains this weekend. Flash flood watches are already posted for much of the two states, plus western Arkansas, with five-day rainfall amounts likely to top 3” over large areas and exceed 6” in spots. With the rains juxtaposed over some locations that have received 10” to 20” over the last several weeks, there’s a high potential for dangerous flash flooding this weekend, as well as major river flooding in the days that follow. Severe weather should be relatively subdued this weekend, with a few tornadic storms possible in scattered pockets as the upper low now over the Southwest slowly progresses east. Outside of the plains, travel impacts should be relatively minimal, although showery conditions in many areas will dampen more than a few outdoor activities. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than average over much of the West, while an early-season “warm wave” begins building toward the East Coast.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson



Figure 5. A thunderstorm over central Pennsylvania on Sunday, May 17. Image credit: wunderphotographer baxtheweatherman.


Long-Range Summer Outlook

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
1002. etxwx
Quoting 992. txjac:

4.25" now and still coming down with a fury ...

I was expecting rain this evening ...just nothing like this ...was supposed to be well under 2"

Rain gauge says 2.5 inches so far. Looks like we are out of the worst of it, but it seems to be stuck over you, txjac. Hang in there!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 260314Z - 260445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE EAST OF CURRENT TORNADO
WATCHES INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH UPSTREAM HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHLY ORGANIZED NATURE
OF THE SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING
WIND/SOME TORNADO RISK INTO A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT
EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LA. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER OUTFLOW
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO MS...BUT THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION
OF THE SQUALL LINE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE RISK INTO
THESE AREAS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2015


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29789266 32629173 32769099 32069026 30619053 30079022
29319077 29789266
1004. Patrap
NWS Mobile, Al Disco

Previous discussion... /issued 347 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015/

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)...for tonight through
Tuesday...a sharp longwave ridge oriented
along the East Coast shifts slowly eastward into the western
Atlantic while a series of shortwaves move across the plains and
eastern states. A prominent shortwave currently associated with
convection over the forecast area will shift slowly east of the area
this evening...and while subsidence in the wake of this feature will
result in limited convective potential this evening...weaker
additional shortwaves will move into the area overnight. Have gone
with chance probability of precipitation across the area this evening...then tapering to
slight chance probability of precipitation for much of the eastern portion overnight while
chance probability of precipitation continue for the remaining portion. A strong series of
shortwaves will meanwhile advance across the southern and Central
Plains...and eject north of the area on Tuesday. Despite these
features passing north of the area which will support both the most
convection and also contain the strongest dynamics...there are two
ingredients which will aid in convective development south of this
preferred area and affect the forecast area on Tuesday.

First of all...a broad 850mb Theta-E axis will be located west of
the area tonight then shifts eastward mainly into the western
portion of forecast area on Tuesday. Secondly...as this occurs the
850-300 mb thickness pattern shows difluence advancing eastward as
well...and moving into the forecast area during the day. Expect
convection to develop west of the forecast area overnight...possibly
evolving into a mesoscale convective system...MCS...and advance
along the broad Theta-E axis and into the forecast area during the
day on Tuesday. Have gone with likely probability of precipitation west of I-65 for the
morning hours with chance to good chance probability of precipitation further east...then
for the afternoon hours will have likely probability of precipitation across the area except
for categorical probability of precipitation over interior southeast Mississippi and
interior southwest Alabama.

As far as strong to severe storm potential...model soundings show
some drier middle level air near 12z Tuesday...but this is wiped out by
midday Tuesday leaving a moist sounding with a minimum relative humidity of about
65 percent through 500 mb. With little if any dry middle level air
present when the better deep layer lift occurs midday Tuesday into
Tuesday afternoon...this will make downdraft acceleration rather
difficult except for via precipitation loading. Going by the
synoptic scale pattern...virtually all of the favorable dynamics
will be located north of the forecast area through the period with
850 mb winds near 25 knots...rather meager for any severe weather
potential. This results in 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity values of 40-80
m2/s2 over the area...and at best 100 m2/s2 over the
northwestern-most portion of the forecast area. The wildcard in this
scenario is the potential mesoscale convective system development and how this may increase
shear over the area.

As fairly high instability will be present with sbcapes of 2500-3000
j/kg...expect at least strong storms to be a risk with the primary
mechanism being precipitation loading leading to strong gusty winds.
Based on the best shear within this environment...it looks like the
extreme northwestern portion of the area...roughly from Waynesboro
to Camden...is where there is a slight risk for severe storm
development with wind gusts around 60 miles per hour possible. This risk area
could expand change based on how and if the mesoscale convective system develops...but there
is low confidence on the timing and evolution of this possible
feature at this time...mainly due to the best dynamics ejecting
north of the area...and will have to be closely monitored.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to lower 70s near
the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 80s. /29

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...energy from the dissolving
upper system over the southwestern Continental U.S. Continues to move northeast
over the Lower/Middle miss/tenn river valleys. The upper ridge over the
eastern Continental U.S. Has shifted off the East Coast...but the surface ridge
stretching west over the southeastern states remains pretty much
intact. The gradient eases...weakening the onshore flow and moisture
influx...but with precipitation h20 values remaining at or above 1.75" for
most of this part of the forecast...the chance of rain remains on the
high side....especially inland.

With the upper ridge in more eastward location...the upper energy is
expected to move more over the forecast area. Looking at the model soundings...
instability for Wednesday ranged from around 1000j/kg(nam) to over
3000l/kg(gfs)...with the NAM advertising a more saturated airmass.
Either way...enough instability is available for some thunderstorms
to become strong or severe. Windshear continues to be limited and
unidirectional...helping to limit the development of spinners. At
this time...with the current moist airmass and limited rotation
possibilities...wind damage and hail appear to be the primary
threats.
Quoting 1000. opal92nwf:


Wonder if that will stay intact all the way to the FL Panhandle

No, this stuff never makes it.
1006. txjac
Quoting 1002. etxwx:


Rain gauge says 2.5 inches so far. Looks like we are out of the worst of it, but it seems to be stuck over you, txjac. Hang in there!


I just hit 5" ...in just three blog pages ...thats got to be a record of some kind?
Think that I'll be working from home tomorrow
All to the east of me be warned ...lot of rain coming at you
We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.
Quoting 987. Astrometeor:

How much rain did the city get that year?
That's a good question with evapotranspiration helping to keep it cooler. I looked and DFW weather office only keeps top 10 records, for wettest/driest months and years. April, May and June 1970 were not among the 10 wettest or driest on record. Neither was 1970 among the top 10 wettest or driest.
1009. txjac
Quoting 1007. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.


Oh my, I am so sorry to hear that. You and your family will be in my prayers

I have a friend in Wimberly that I haven't been able to catch up to yet. The amount of rain to the west of me has been unbelievable
Quoting 1007. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.
Rookie I'm sorry you lost one of your second cousins.
1011. Patrap
its weakening now at the moment anyway

txjac wishing it away

1013. txjac
Quoting 1012. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its weakening now at the moment anyway

txjac wishing it away




Yes, I just peaked out and looked and it appears and sounds like its letting up. Just checked nearest gauge and it's sitting at 5.5"
Quoting 876. sar2401:

Hi Blanche. You just can't be too choosy about when you get rain in the Great American Desert. At least you're getting some. Reno has only 0.39" this month so you're way ahead of them. 


They got to have gotten more today, based on the big green, orange and yellow blobs I saw there today. Today's paper, talking about the repair to the Lewis fork that collapsed a couple weeks ago, noted that we only get 17% but the season may be extended thanks to the rains.

I don't think the conditions causing all the rain in Texas are likely to move your way but each low that comes off the Pacific at least sdrops some before it heads out into the Plains. In theory, a properly installed septic tank with a large enough drain field should be only minamally affected by heavy rain. If the drain field is installed deep enough the rain's not going to back up in the drain field. If a septic tank is almost full or the drain field was already partially blocked by solids then you can have trouble. I lived in a house with a septic system and really never had problems but I also paid the honey dipper guys to come out every other year and clean out the tank and flush the drain field.


We're so good with our system, plus the greywater setup, while the previous owners reported having to pump twice a year, probably thanks to all the work I've done we pumped once the first year - and haven't needed to since. I'm not so sure about the condition of the drainfield, I think there's a shallow spot but we don't grow anything there, just let the goats in to eat down the brush now and then.

I'm more wondering - what are things like for the rural folk with septic, out where they're looking at 20, 30 inches of rain for the month? If that's likely to worm its way towards us, we'll have other problems - but I've handled freeze-ups and have a plan for those, I'm wondering how to plan for flooding.

Because I know what can happen, I've seen flooding where I grew up.

Housemate said to his wife today "You did want to move to Oregon, remember?" She answered "Looks like Oregon's moved to us."
Quoting 880. HaoleboySurfEC:

Was a lifeguard on the NJ shore and Oahu. In Hawaii we rarely kept people out of the water since it is the playground of the greatest watermen in the world. Occasionally though, you've got to keep Joe Public out of the water. Just too much risk that while you're rescuing one, you lose a family of three down the beach.

In NJ we shut it down whenever it got risky. Too many "novices" and seasonal beachgoers that are not ocean savvy. Sounds like they should have shut it down in FL. Maybe they did and people still went in anyways. The best lifeguards I ever worked with "managed" their beaches. Prevention was their goal. Plenty can still go wrong even on the most quiet of days.




I grew up in Atlantic City/Ventnor, and boy did some of those tourists pull stupid stunts. Locals weren't immune either - Dawn DeShields, classmate of mine, drowned when she and some friends wanted to go swimming around 11 at night. And there was one summer - late 70's, I think - where the whole shoreline had water piled up steep, people were getting pulled out right and left, and even I needed a chain of friends at one point to get me out. I wasn't being stupid, I just didn't expect the riptide strength to sweep my feet out from under me 12 feet from the water's edge.
1016. Patrap
Quoting 1013. txjac:



Yes, I just peaked out and looked and it appears and sounds like its letting up. Just checked nearest gauge and it's sitting at 5.5"
139.7 mm txjac
1018. etxwx
Good grief, the weather channel is reporting the Rockets game just finished and the authorities are going to have to encourage the folks to stay there in the arena for now due to flooding.
1019. txjac
Quoting 1017. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

139.7 mm txjac


I remember the nuns telling us that we would be going to the decimal system ...
Somehow that petered out.

1020. Patrap
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CENTRAL LA SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF LINE OVER SE LA/SW MS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 214...WW 215...WW
216...WW 217...WW 218...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...CORFIDI



1021. Patrap
1022. 882MB
Quoting 1007. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.


My condolences, for you and your family. Must be tough loosing a family member even more so when it had to do with mother nature. May god bless you, and may this be a good opportunity for people reading this, that yes never underestimate how deep you think the water is. Just "turn around don't drown".
1023. ncstorm
Quoting 1018. etxwx:

Good grief, the weather channel is reporting the Rockets game just finished and the authorities are going to have to encourage the folks to stay there in the arena for now due to flooding.


according to ESPN right now don't look like that many stayed but instead headed home..
1024. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1059 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1052 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1045 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1044 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1043 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1040 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1040 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
Quoting 1009. txjac:



Oh my, I am so sorry to hear that. You and your family will be in my prayers

I have a friend in Wimberly that I haven't been able to catch up to yet. The amount of rain to the west of me has been unbelievable



I did not know my second cousin. I only met him once when he was still an infant. His mother, my cousin, died of cancer when she was 24. My second cousin's father moved and we did not keep in close contact. His aunts and uncles did stay in close contact with him.

txjac, I have a brother that lives in Wimberly. He is fine, but 300 homes were completely destroyed and another 1,000 damaged. The Blanco river hit over 40 feet and over topped the bridge going into the square. This beat the previous of 32 feet set in 1929. The bridge into the square is open again, but some of the bridges in the area were destroyed.

Lake Travis rose 7 feet in just 12 hours. I believe that this happened on Sunday. The lake is still over 30 feet down, but this is a huge difference from where it was 2 years ago.

Much of Texas is expected to continue to receive rain through the rest of this month. We are experiencing the polar opposite of the droughts in 2011. I do not know which is worse, but the drought was far scarier than all of this rain. The floods do bring death and destruction.

Much of the heavy rains have skirted to the north and south of me. During the past week I have seen systems split within ten miles of me with most the energy from the systems going to the north and south of me. I have had my rains, but they have been very modest compared to nearly every area around me. I am currently getting a lot of lightning and thunder, along with some modest to heavy rain and moderate winds. Sorry, my weather station died during the drought and generalities are all that I can offer.
HGX just issued their first ever Flash Flood Emergency.

Quoting 1007. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.


Sad. Unfortunately it happens more than it should.

But it doesn't even have to be high water. It takes amazingly little water to float your car off the pavement. It also doesn't take a whole lot of speed to push your car clear off the road. Or to pin your doors shut.

If a road is flooded, don't drive there. Especially if the conditions causing the flooding are still present. It doesn't matter if it doesn't look that deep or that far to the other side. A sudden surge of water or a momentary loss of road contact is all that's needed for a lethal accident.
Quoting 1021. Patrap:




That's one nasty line of storms.
1029. Patrap
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CENTRAL LA SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF LINE OVER SE LA/SW MS.


Quoting 1019. txjac:



I remember the nuns telling us that we would be going to the decimal system ...
Somehow that petered out.


I use both it really messes up the locals when I use the imperial system up here
1031. Patrap
Quoting 1028. Xyrus2000:



That's one nasty line of storms.


Was last night as it rolled n, an was a like a tropical storm the rain rates, and winds.

The cells to my SOuth are inbound now.

Im gonna brew a pot.

The atmo here is primed.
1032. etxwx
Looks like another line forming near Lufkin?


Rookie, I'm so sorry to hear your family has suffered a tragic loss. That's terrible.
1034. txjac
Quoting 1031. Patrap:



Was last night as it rolled n, an was a like a tropical storm the rain rates, and winds.

The cells to my SOuth are inbound now.

Im gonna brew a pot.

The atmo here is primed.


Think I might join you in the brew ...still going strong here and sitting at 6.5".
Wondering how long its going to take for all of this to run off and drain. Wish that the pictures I have been taking out the front door were better
Rain event expected in the NE Caribbean latter this week. Will it happen?
1036. Gearsts
Quoting 1035. CaribBoy:

Rain event expected in the NE Caribbean latter this week. Will it happen?
crossing fingers

MEH

1037. 19N81W
Wow Ksgr getting pounded tonight
Quoting 1035. CaribBoy:

Rain event expected in the NE Caribbean latter this week. Will it happen?
Hey CaribBoy how are you today.
3.5" up by IAH so far in the Forest Cove/ Kingwood area
Quoting 1034. txjac:



Think I might join you in the brew ...still going strong here and sitting at 6.5".
Wondering how long its going to take for all of this to run off and drain. Wish that the pictures I have been taking out the front door were better


Need to look up Noah in the White Pages and ask him about that Ark he said he was building...
1041. txjac
Memorial area apartment damaged by lightning strike

Lightning struck an apartment in the Memorial area late Monday, sparking a two-alarm fire, officials said.

No injuries were reported in the fire at the Country Place Apartments, 800 Country Place, near Memorial and North Dairy Ashford. Houston Fire Department officials reported that the fire, which broke out about 9:44 p.m., caused significant damage to an apartment.

No further information was immediately available.


I guess this explains all the sirens I heard earlier this evening
Quoting 1040. Astrometeor:



Need to look up Noah in the White Pages and ask him about that Ark he said he was building...


Grothar took possession of it a few years ago and it is in dry dock for some upgrades.

Link
1043. sar2401
Quoting 1000. opal92nwf:

Wonder if that will stay intact all the way to the FL Panhandle
Might get to the far western Panhandle and Alabama but it's unlikely to hold together much beyond that. OTOH, this line of storms has been amazingly persistent so we might get surprised.
1044. 882MB
Quoting 1036. Gearsts:

crossing fingers

MEH




Models have been in agreement now for the past several days. Hopefully some good rainfalls, especially in the reservoirs. Which are very low at the moment.
Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT...

.A VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE WAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES AS IT WAS MOVING OUT OF EAST TEXAS...ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF STATES. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGH GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THIS SQUALL
LINE.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077 -080>082-261215-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0005.150526T0415Z-150526T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTRE VILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
1115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...
POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST.
HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...
UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER
ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE
AND WEST FELICIANA. IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL
AND WILKINSON.

* UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY

* HIGH RAINFALL RATES AROUND 5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR 30 TO 60
MINUTES.

* RAPID PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS...RAPID RISES ON LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS. METROPOLITAN
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS MAY HAVE THEIR PUMPING CAPACITIES EXCEEDED FOR
SOME DURATION OF THIS EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

24/RR
1046. ncstorm
Fans that stayed in the Houston Toyota Center for the Rockets game are now being moved to another place within the arena so that the cleaning crew can prepare for a Neil Diamond concert according to ESPN..

Good luck to those in Texas..stay home if you are already there and I hope they allow those that stayed in the Arena to spend the night there instead of heading into a flash flood situation at night..

1048. txjac
Quoting 1046. ncstorm:

Fans that stayed in the Houston Arena are now being moved to another place within the arena so that the cleaning crew can prepare for a Neil Diamond concert according to ESPN..

Good luck to those in Texas..stay home if you are already there an I hope they allow those that stayed in the Arena to spend the night there instead of heading into a flash flood situation at night..




No one needs to be out in this miserable weather!
I'm up to 7.5" now
1049. Patrap
1050. Patrap
1051. ADCS
Quoting 1041. txjac:

Memorial area apartment damaged by lightning strike

Lightning struck an apartment in the Memorial area late Monday, sparking a two-alarm fire, officials said.

No injuries were reported in the fire at the Country Place Apartments, 800 Country Place, near Memorial and North Dairy Ashford. Houston Fire Department officials reported that the fire, which broke out about 9:44 p.m., caused significant damage to an apartment.

No further information was immediately available.


I guess this explains all the sirens I heard earlier this evening


Explains all the fire engines I saw, too.
1052. txjac
Quoting 1051. ADCS:



Explains all the fire engines I saw, too.


How much have you gotten?
Isnt the thunder unbelievable? So loud
1053. ADCS
Quoting 1052. txjac:



How much have you gotten?
Isnt the thunder unbelievable? So loud


Around 7.25" so far. Been consistently impressed with how the system wants to redevelop and continue stalling, even when it looks done. I don't think I've been in a rain storm that reminded me so much of the mesoscale activity you see in nor'easter snowstorms, even though this is a very different kind of storm.

There have been a couple of thunderbolts that sounded like a bomb going off. Guessing that one of those is what got the neighbors. I was originally thinking that a car got stuck, and that's why the fire engines were out.
1054. txjac
Quoting 1053. ADCS:



Around 7.25" so far. Been consistently impressed with how the system wants to redevelop and continue stalling, even when it looks done. I don't think I've been in a rain storm that reminded me so much of the mesoscale activity you see in nor'easter snowstorms, even though this is a very different kind of storm.


It's now tomorrow ...Tuesday, 7.77" for Monday
Let's see how today manages
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



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Observing and Forecasting Vog Dispersion from Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i

Doppler Radar Analysis of Triple Eyewalls in Typhoon Usagi (2013)

* Europe's Largest Oil Giants Band Together to Add Voice to Climate Debate

The R&B Star Akon and an Emirates Foundation Invest in a Solar Energy Work Force for Africa

*** One-Two Punch of Earthquakes and Landslides Exposes Hydropower Vulnerability in Nepal

*** IS threat to Syria's northern bald ibis near Palmyra



* Climate impacts leave rainforests on edge of destruction

!!! Sudden onset of ice loss in Antarctica so large it affects Earth's gravity field

*** Deciphering clues to prehistoric climate changes locked in cave deposits



*** What would it take to limit climate change to 1.5C by 2100?

!!! Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather: Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries

Surviving harsh environments becomes a death-trap for specialist corals

Climate engineering may save coral reefs, study shows

*** Savannahs slow climate change, experts say

!!! New insights into global ocean microbe-virus interactions, drivers of Earth's ecosystems

Natural gas versus diesel: Examining the climate impacts of natural gas trucks

* Study reveals how eastern US forests came to be

Breastfeeding protects against environmental pollution

One-of-a-kind star discovered, nicknamed 'Nasty'



* Most luminous galaxy in universe discovered



Auroras on Mars



Hubble revisits tangled NGC 6240



* U.S., Canada and Mexico create new climate change partnership

* Malawi forests shrink as power deficit fuels charcoal business

*** Bowwow wow! Dog domestication much older than previously known

How Obama's 'butterfly highway' paves way to save embattled monarchs

Not even Obama's national security argument can get partisans to agree on climate change

* Scientists Make Novel Attempt to Save Giant Turtle Species (with video)

*** Making LED Light Bulbs Less Attractive to Insects

Could England's King Henry I Be Buried Under a Parking Lot?

* 'Peaceful valley': Passaic River is reborn in New Jersey
NWSHouston retweeted
Harris County OHSEM @HCOHSEM · 21m 21 minutes ago

HCFCD: Buffalo Bayou - 8.3" of rain in the last three hours.
Quoting 1050. Patrap:



How long will it stay there? Was it forecasted to stay there that long?
Quoting 1048. txjac:



No one needs to be out in this miserable weather!
I'm up to 7.5" now
.........Maybe I should lay off on doing your rain dances for a little bit.
Quoting 1023. ncstorm:



according to ESPN right now don't look like that many stayed but instead headed home..


cause its not like the first responders don't have enough to do right now...
@NWSHouston %uFFFD 56s 56 seconds ago

1237AM Flash Flood Emergency reissued for Harris/Ft. Bend. Significant flash flooding occurring- avoid travel!

The updated map area now extends just south of Rosenberg, but I can't get it to post. Here's the twitter page. https://twitter.com/nwshouston




Quoting 1050. Patrap:




one of the largest thunderstorm "masses" (I don't know what they are called) that I have ever seen
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND FORT BEND
COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 1235 AM CDT...RAIN GAUGES HAVE MEASURED BETWEN 6 AND 10 INCHES
IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ARE OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND FORT
BEND COUNTIES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI CITY...EASTERN ROSENBERG...
STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...RICHMOND...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...FOURTH WARD...TOWN WEST...PECAN GROVE...
FIRST COLONY...SPRING BRANCH WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...EASTERN
ADDICKS PARK TEN AND GREATER HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.
1063. etxwx
The big picture:


'Nite all, try to stay safe and dry.
1064. txjac
Too funny ...one of the outdoor neighbor kitties just "knocked" on the door to be let in ...lol
She's spending the night inside with me, Peanut and all our kitties ...too funny
She looked so pathetic
I wonder whether weather modifiers like Dynogel, (or whatever the future version of it is) will be used to stop flooding events like this in the future as they increase in their frequency.
Radar is now indicating that over 10 inches of rain has fallen in SW Harris County, and considering how well radar estimates have been verifying today, I completely believe it. The scary thing is that the KDP (a way of measuring instantaneous rain rates using Dual-Polarization) has gone back up in the Flash Flood Emergency box, meaning the rain is getting even heavier again.


basically every reservoir in North-East Texas is full
1068. txjac
Quoting 1066. 1900hurricane:

Radar is now indicating that over 10 inches of rain has fallen in SW Harris County, and considering how well radar estimates have been verifying today, I completely believe it. The scary thing is that the KDP (a way of measuring instantaneous rain rates using Dual-Polarization) has gone back up in the Flash Flood Emergency box, meaning the rain is getting even heavier again.


Yesterday ended with me having 7.7" and in the first hour of this very wet Tuesday we can add another 1.2" to my total
Quoting 1065. nwobilderburg:

I wonder whether weather modifiers like Dynogel, (or whatever the future version of it is) will be used to stop flooding events like this in the future as they increase in their frequency.


The observation that the experiment that "Dyn-O-Gel" conducted actually "dissipated" clouds is problematic. Did they watch any unmodified clouds ? Isolated Florida cumuli have short lifetimes, and these are just the ones an experimenter would logically pick.
Accepting for the sake of argument that they actually did have an effect, the descriptions seem more consistent with an increase in hydrometeor fall speed and accelerated collision coalescence, which the numerical model results argue would strengthen the hurricane, but not much. If this speculation proves to be correct, "Dyn-O-Gel" might be useful for rainmaking during a dry spell, unlike glaciogenic seeding which (in the tropics at least) tends to make rainy days even more rainy--if it does anything at all.
One of the biggest problems is, however, that it would take a LOT of the stuff to even hope to have an impact. 2 cm of rain falling over 1 square kilometer of surface deposits 20,000 metric tons of water. At the 2000-to-one ratio that the "Dyn-O-Gel" folks advertise, each square km would require 10 tons of goop. If we take the eye to be 20 km in diameter surrounded by a 20km thick eyewall, that's 3,769.91 square kilometers, requiring 37,699.1 tons of "Dyn-O-Gel".
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5d.html
http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local/flash-fl ood-watch-issued-as-more-rain-expected-mon/nmNRQ/# 7331733

%u201CWe are doing all that we can to restore power as quickly and safely as possible. But we know now this is more than a day%u2019s work to get everyone%u2019s power back on, as some areas are simply not accessible at this time due to flooding.%u201D


Flooding in Bastrop

Meanwhile, water that overflowed after the Bastrop State Park dam broke Monday afternoon has drained into the river, leaving a 7-acre lake completely empty, the Bastrop County Office of Emergency Management and Texas Parks and Wildlife said.
...
Officials urged Bastrop residents to avoid driving as many roads in the county are damaged or destroyed. Multiple rescues were still underway as of two hours ago, officials said.

10:45 p.m. update: Wastewater from local treatment plants overflowed during flooding Monday from 10 Austin facilities.

City officials had no estimation of how much wastewater overflowed but said that the threat to public health should be small because any wastewater would be extensively diluted by flood waters. However, officials said anyone living within a 1/2 mile of an affected wastewater treatment center should only use water that has been distilled or boiled.


I bet the accuracy of these 7-month projections of rainfall and air patterns is awful
Austin



The Stevie Ray Vaughan statue at Auditorium Shores. Photo by Philip Jankowski/AMERICAN-STATESMAN
Not good
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
111 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 111 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER RIVER RIDGE...OR NEAR METAIRIE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
METAIRIE...HARAHAN...RIVER RIDGE...ELMWOOD...WAGGAMAN AND NEW
ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
130 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 129 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR NORWOOD...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTREVILLE.
Too many deaths have occurred because of preventable mistakes. If you see a flooded roadway, turn around! It's incredible to see that regions that were dealing with exceptional drought 2-3 years ago are now dealing with some of the worst flooding in recorded history (for that location). Weather is weird like that.
TxDOT- HOU District @TxDOTHoustonPIO · 9m 9 minutes ago
This is not just friendly advice. Stay off the roads and avoid high water. This is not your typical rain storm.

#HoustonFlood #houwxNWSHouston @NWSHouston · 10m 10 minutes ago
Sugar Land's May 25 rain total: 8.04". Houston Intercontinental Airport's: 4.34". #txwx #houwx

Travis Herzog ✔ @HerzogWeather
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY GETTING WORSE! BRAYS BAYOU GOING OVER BANKS IN SOUTHWEST #HOUSTON!
My turn...this just woke me up...was sleeping so well too

Quoting 1076. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Too many deaths have occurred because of preventable mistakes. If you see a flooded roadway, turn around! It's incredible to see that regions that were dealing with exceptional drought 2-3 years ago are now dealing with some of the worst flooding in recorded history (for that location). Weather is weird like that.

This is climate, more than weather. This is global warming. 'If it rains, it pours'. Besides, remember 'whiplash weather'? Get used to it, it will only get worse: worse droughts AND worse flooding.
Quoting 1082. cRRKampen:


This is climate, more than weather. This is global warming. 'If it rains, it pours'. Besides, remember 'whiplash weather'? Get used to it, it will only get worse: worse droughts AND worse flooding.


President Barack Obama spoke about the security side of the issue at U.S. Coast Guard Academy Commencement May 20, emphasizing the importance of how global warming will affect the military in years to come. “Climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security, an immediate risk to our national security, and, make no mistake, it will impact how our military defends our country. And so we need to act — and we need to act now,” Obama said.

Quoting 1082. cRRKampen:


This is climate, more than weather. This is global warming. 'If it rains, it pours'. Besides, remember 'whiplash weather'? Get used to it, it will only get worse: worse droughts AND worse flooding.

Currently 1 degree of warming, with 2 degree it will be at least twice the damage i would guess.
1088. bappit
SW of Houston, here. SSW of TxJac. Went through the longest stretch of continuous thunder and lightning I can remember earlier tonight. Couldn't sleep. Finally it stopped raining and I got up to check. Street was flooded and the toilet was up to the brim. :O Haven't noticed that happening before.

I checked out the radar. It looked like things would be peaceful for me the rest of the night but after an hour of peace it is raining hard again. People east of me doubtless have more water and more worries. I still hear thunder to the west so I know more rain is coming.
Mexico Border City Tornado Leaves 13 Dead, 230 Injured

"It hit an area of about seven blocks," Zamora said, describing the neighborhood as "devastated."

The head of Mexico's national civil defense agency, Luis Felipe Puente, told local media that 230 people had been injured and that shelters are being set up.
NWSHouston retweeted
andy gillfillan @andygillfillan %uFFFD 17m 17 minutes ago

Wow! I-10 and Washington Bridge in Houston from my location

p icture here
The line is through Baton Rouge - rain primarily with some thunder and wind (still raining, but not like earlier). Nothing like the 'severe' weather as described by others in SE TX, thank goodness.

Houston area, 8 pm to 2 am:


I-10 service roads are all flooded. "Virtual lakes". 5 lanes down to "2" (3 for those willing to drive in deeper water). "Vehicles are moving as far left as possible."

http://abc13.com/weather/katy-freeway-at-610-shut -down-in-both-directions-due-to-high-water/741973/

video at link

Of course people will run out of gas. People have been trying to get home for several hours. Hungry, sleepy, needing the restroom.
http://abc13.com/weather/metro-suspending-morning -transit-services/742180/

Houston METRO has suspended all transportation services for the morning due to severe weather, including park and ride buses, light rail and MetroLift.

METRO will resume the service when conditions improve.
NWSHouston @NWSHouston · 6m 6 minutes ago

Flash Flood Emergency reissued through 6 AM. Travel is NOT advised!!

map at https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/60312664297 0632192



Quoting 1094. drg0dOwnCountry:

Houston, Texas, Submerged by Unprecedented Flooding; Eight States At Risk

That video of the suv being washed away was horrifying. I kept praying whoever was in the vehicle would get out. What a tragedy.
Quoting 1097. LAbonbon:


That video of the suv being washed away was horrifying. I kept praying who ever was in the vehicle would get out. What a tragedy.

The guy in the white car got out.
Webberville is east of Austin

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local/flooding -causes-evacuations-rescues-near-webbervil/nmNmf/


3:38 a.m. update: Flooding forced a Webberville neighborhood to evacuate early Tuesday morning.

Austin-Travis County EMS had no injuries reported and appeared to be winding down their opporations at 3:15 a.m. near the areas of FM 969 and Blake Manor Road in Eastern Travis County.

Capitol Metro had a bus on the scene to help evacuate residents affected. Police and EMS earlier had made door-to-door contacts to evacuate residents.

An Austin police helicopter responded to the area to survey the area, where officers on board saw residents signaling for help. In response, EMS sent out boats to rescue residents.

Earlier: Authorities early today are canvassing a neighborhood in Eastern Travis County and evacuating residents after Decker Creek left its banks and begin flooding the area.

A spokesman for Austin-Travis County Emergency Services said at 2 a.m. today that he was not aware of any injuries but that some of the homes had been flooded in the past couple of hours. He said emergency crews were first called to the scene near Dunlap and Easy Bend after receiving a report that a person was trapped on the roof of a pickup. Officials said around that same time they received numerous calls from residents concerned about rising waters in the neighborhood. EMS spokesperson Mike Benavides said crews had used both boats and helicopters as part of the rescues and is now conducting a door to door search. He does not know how many homes are in the area or how many rescues have been conducted. “It appears there has been quite a few.”
Quoting 1098. drg0dOwnCountry:


The guy in the white car got out.

He did? That's awesome.

Do you happen to know at what point did he got out - and how? That thing went belly up.
Quoting 1019. txjac:



I remember the nuns telling us that we would be going to the decimal system ...
Somehow that petered out.


I never did understand why decimals were seen as "of the devil" ....

Quoting 1093. jamesrainier:


Yikes!

To all in TX, LA, MI, AL and points east, PLEASE stay safe! While it looks like cloud tops have moderated somewhat as the system gets a little closer to that persistent ATL-GOM ridge, the entire system still looks like a soaker for most in the aforementioned parts....

The Statesman has a photo gallery of flooded areas near Austin, San Marcos, Wimberley and Bastrop.

On that note I'm going to try and get back to sleep for a couple hours.

Be safe, everyone.

Quoting 1100. LAbonbon:


He did? That's awesome.

Do you happen to know at what point did he got out - and how? That thing went belly up.


Mentioned in this video
http://abc13.com/weather/flooding-emergency-in-effe ct-for-parts-of-se-texas/39346/

"A Flooding Emergency is reserved for only the most serious flooding situations. This is the first time it's been issued for Houston. All Houston residents are asked to remain where they are until this storm subsides. Roads are incredibly dangerous right now. The city asks that you only call 911 for immediate medical, fire or police emergencies. Call 311 to report flooding or debris in streets."
Very impressive as it appears we might see 1.2C next week for ENSO 3.4.

1107. ncstorm
Good Morning..

From Houston TranStar Incidents..

High Water Locations - Currently 75 High Water Location(s).

Other Road Closures - Currently 14 Other Road Closure(s).

36 Counties Declared Disaster Areas in Texas..

There are still fans in the Arena from The Rockets playoff game last night..

6 people dead from flooding
Quoting 1000. opal92nwf:


Wonder if that will stay intact all the way to the FL Panhandle


One would hope so...My grass is dying. We've gotten only a sprinkle from a popup storm in the past week or 2.

Any of ya'll in the floods feel free to come dump some buckets of rain on my flower bed.
epac.landfall..cmc
1110. ncstorm
Work calls..Later

00z NCEP Ensembles, 06z still running..


Another possibility
1111. JRRP
Euro

https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/603140973380665344

KHOU 11 News Houston @KHOU 2h 2 hours ago

All HISD schools, district offices are now CLOSED today. Updated list of school closures and delays
Jim Cantore retweeted
Betsy Nanson @bnanson 3h 3 hours ago

@JimCantore @KHOU BraysBayou described as being above 500 year flood level,
Quoting 1105. tampabaymatt:




Models are now beginning to show the same set up that has been plaguing Texas to shift East to the SE US and across FL. The reason for this is a big bowl type trough is expected to develop across the Gulf and on its east flank a deep plume of moisture is expected to come up from the Bahamas. Could get interesting around here too.

SE US get ready because were next.



Everyone in FL that has been dry of late hang on because the deluge is coming. Major pattern change is about to take shape across the US.

May need to watch for something tropical or sub tropical on either side of FL too.


"Flooding in Bastrop" Photo (Post 1070)


It appears that there are lots of dead tree snags on the hill in the background. Just guessing but those snags could be there as a result of disastrous forest fires some years ago. Drought/Flood, Feast/Famine. But perhaps the multi year average rainfall will look almost normal?

Reminds me of the old joke that if your feet are in a block of ice and your hair is on fire on the average you are comfortable.

1118. yoboi
Quoting 1082. cRRKampen:


This is climate, more than weather. This is global warming. 'If it rains, it pours'. Besides, remember 'whiplash weather'? Get used to it, it will only get worse: worse droughts AND worse flooding.


I have read several NWS discussions last night and this morning and have yet to see where they are talking about climate causing the rain....Can you provide any links to such talk??
NJ shore. Steep beaches. Some of the worst rips I have ever witnessed anywhere. Areas with jetties even worse as they trap more water up the beach. It's got to go out somewhere.

Quoting 1015. nonblanche:



I grew up in Atlantic City/Ventnor, and boy did some of those tourists pull stupid stunts. Locals weren't immune either - Dawn DeShields, classmate of mine, drowned when she and some friends wanted to go swimming around 11 at night. And there was one summer - late 70's, I think - where the whole shoreline had water piled up steep, people were getting pulled out right and left, and even I needed a chain of friends at one point to get me out. I wasn't being stupid, I just didn't expect the riptide strength to sweep my feet out from under me 12 feet from the water's edge.

Quoting 1117. Wacahootaman:

"Flooding in Bastrop" Photo (Post 1070)


It appears that there are lots of dead tree snags on the hill in the background. Just guessing but those snags could be there as a result of disastrous forest fires some years ago. (
snip)
Wildfire, 2011.
Precip totals last 30 days across the US. Just absurd the amount of rain in some areas of the South Central US. Reason for this is El-Nino and will explain below.



So what we have seen is a increased Southern Jet which has been pulling deep tropical moisture across Texas that is originating across the E-Pac where anomalies are 2.6C above average. All of this increased heat is leading to major rainfall events. Now going forward the pattern will change. As a result we will begin to see this plume originate itself from the E-Pac and aimed more at the SE US as a deep trough build over the Gulf.

Quoting 1118. yoboi:



I have read several NWS discussions last night and this morning and have yet to see where they are talking about climate causing the rain....Can you provide any links to such talk??

There is no link to common sense, sir. One either has it or they don't.
Quoting 1121. StormTrackerScott:

Precip totals last 30 days across the US. Just absurd the amount of rain in some areas of the South Central US. Reason for this is El-Nino and will explain below.



So what we have seen is a increased Southern Jet which has been pulling deep tropical moisture across Texas that is originating across the E-Pac where anomalies are 2.6C above average. All of this increased heat is leading to major rainfall events. Now going forward the pattern will change. As a result we will begin to see this plume originate itself from the E-Pac and aimed more at the SE US as a deep trough build over the Gulf.




Good call Scott next week computer forecast models indicate trough of low pressure shifting farther east into the Gulf and the Southeast. Maybe in south florida we can get into a southwesterly wind flow and bring some strong thunderstorms here instead of this dump easterly wind flow every friggin day
Quoting 1123. WeatherConvoy:



Good call Scott next week computer forecast models indicate trough of low pressure shifting farther east into the Gulf and the Southeast. Maybe in south florida we can get into a southwesterly wind flow and bring some strong thunderstorms here instead of this dump easterly wind flow every friggin day


500mb temps look rather cold so the storms that form starting this weekend especially into next week could have a lot of extra gusto.

Looking like the Wet Season is going to set in for good across FL and could come with a bang this year with very high rainfall totals over the next 2 weeks.

Quoting 1065. nwobilderburg:

I wonder whether weather modifiers like Dynogel, (or whatever the future version of it is) will be used to stop flooding events like this in the future as they increase in their frequency.


Wouldn't work. Storms like these are powered by a lot of energy and unstable atmospheric conditions. Even if you could get enough of the stuff, get it up to the storm complex quickly enough, etc. it still wouldn't do jack about the prevailing conditions fueling it's formation in the first place. At best, you would end up delaying things for a little bit in a small area and that's only if you could catch it early enough.

You can't beat physics.
Anthony Sagliani
‏@anthonywx
A +3 to +4 sigma westerly wind burst will be ongoing in E-Pac through at least the next 10 days.
1127. MahFL
Quoting 1061. nwobilderburg:



one of the largest thunderstorm "masses" (I don't know what they are called) that I have ever seen


Mesoscale convective system (MCS) is what they are called, can be several 100 km's in size.
1128. ncstorm
Latest update..

06z
Quoting 1118. yoboi:



I have read several NWS discussions last night and this morning and have yet to see where they are talking about climate causing the rain.
No surprise there. In fact, only a person ignorant of the rather simple difference between weather and climate would bother looking for mention of causality and attribution in an NWS forecast discussion in the first place.

Having said that, common sense and just the most cursory familiarization with high school physics should be enough to help one realize that a warming atmosphere holds increasingly more energy, and an increasingly energetic atmosphere means more frequent and more extreme weather events.
You can kinda see the linkage of this moisture into Texas on the ESPI maps which the ESPI is @ a very high 1.73


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.73


Quoting 1128. ncstorm:

Latest update..

06z



Pattern is going to change ncstorm from a boring one to a more interesting set up across the SE US as a cutoff low forms in the Gulf
1132. ncstorm
also the 00z Navgem Ensembles

1133. yoboi
Quoting 1129. Neapolitan:

No surprise there. In fact, only a person ignorant of the rather simple difference between weather and climate would bother looking for mention of causality and attribution in an NWS forecast discussion in the first place.

Having said that, common sense and just the most cursory familiarization with high school physics should be enough to help one realize that a warming atmosphere holds increasingly more energy, and an increasingly energetic atmosphere means more frequent and more extreme weather events.


Quoting 1133. yoboi:


Graphs from anti-science sites aren't terribly convincing.
1135. Torito
CMC 144 hours out.



GFS 144 hours out.

1136. Torito
You know the Atlantic is going to be quiet if even the CMC doesn't show anything through it's entire run..

Model Run
Quoting 1133. yoboi:




So you've again chosen to ignore the responses to your comment and decided instead to show a couple of Pielke, Jr. graphs.

Awesome.

Sigh.

Now, about those graphs. See those y-axes? One labeled "normalized economic losses", and the other "Normalized people affected"? Care to tell us where they imply anything about the frequency of extreme weather events, and/or their causality, which is what we were discussing? We'll await your response. But please refrain from the overwhelming impulse to change the subject by posting yet *another* graph from some denialist site, and stick to the matter at hand. Thanks.
in fire fox are you guys getting a script box when coming too this blog ?
1139. 19N81W
Another day in Cayman .....wake up no clouds already 88 and the sky here is not blue its gray with dust and haze. No moisture to be seen it kinda feels like what you would expect in a desert.
You can see a cloud off in the distance trying desperately to get through the subsiding mid level dryness but by the time you look back its gone. We are ripping plants out of the ground now as the weakest ones are dead. It's dry dry dry.....I heard it rained in Bodden Town last night but sad to say we will need a storm for any real rain.....
Here's a really cool animation from Ken Takahashi, a climate scientist from Peru with specialization in ENSO, of the Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N) SST anomalies (top), zonal wind vector & SSH (Sea Surface Height) anomalies, subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (derived from ERSSTv3b, SODA, & NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis overlaid with the thermocline (3rd from the top) and the coastal El Nino index (bottom) for January 1970-December 2001. Sverdrup transport driving discharge in the eastern Pacific is particularly evident in the periods following the climax of the 1972-73, 1982-83, & 1997-98 El Ninos, as well as the inter-annual wave refraction against the western boundary region...

Link
1141. Torito
Quoting 1137. Neapolitan:
So you've again chosen to ignore the responses to your comment and decided instead to show a couple of Pielke, Jr. graphs.

Awesome.

Sigh.

Now, about those graphs. See those y-axes? One labeled "normalized economic losses", and the other "Normalized people affected"? Care to tell us where they imply anything about the frequency of extreme weather events, and/or their causality, which is what we were discussing? We'll await your response. But please refrain from the overwhelming impulse to change the subject by posting yet *another* graph from some denialist site, and stick to the matter at hand. Thanks.


I agree with this. (Can't believe I have actually jumped into this..) Another thing to account with this data, which is hardly related to any sort of frequency is that as time passes, we build more resistant buildings, and more precautions are taken with every successive storm.. Therefore, in general , storms cost us less money and causalities through this preparation. There has been a visible jump in the amount of dangerous weather occurring, and most people here can see that.
1142. Torito
Quoting 1138. Tazmanian:
in fire fox are you guys getting a script box when coming too this blog ?


Naw taz. Might be an advertisement or something messing with you. If you don't have it yet, I suggest getting ADBlock.. it even helps this site load faster.. =P
1143. LargoFl
Quoting 1104. jamesrainier:

http://abc13.com/weather/flooding-emergency-in-eff e ct-for-parts-of-se-texas/39346/

"A Flooding Emergency is reserved for only the most serious flooding situations. This is the first time it's been issued for Houston. All Houston residents are asked to remain where they are until this storm subsides. Roads are incredibly dangerous right now. The city asks that you only call 911 for immediate medical, fire or police emergencies. Call 311 to report flooding or debris in streets."
man those poor folks in texas, amazing amount of flooding, hundreds of homes washed away..geez
1144. yoboi
Quoting 1137. Neapolitan:

So you've again chosen to ignore the responses to your comment and decided instead to show a couple of Pielke, Jr. graphs.

Awesome.

Sigh.

Now, about those graphs. See those y-axes? One labeled "normalized economic losses", and the other "Normalized people affected"? Care to tell us where they imply anything about the frequency of extreme weather events, and/or their causality, which is what we were discussing? We'll await your response. But please refrain from the overwhelming impulse to change the subject by posting yet *another* graph from some denialist site, and stick to the matter at hand. Thanks.


What is your definition of an extreme weather event??? I am using scientific data and not emotional definition's....
1145. hydrus
1146. Patrap
Quoting 1144. yoboi:



What is your definition of an extreme weather event??? I am using scientific data and not emotional definition's....


"Gee"


Look behind you,

Quoting 1144. yoboi:



What is your definition of an extreme weather event??? I am using scientific data and not emotional definition's....
Perhaps a good definition would be weather that brings more than 10 denialists to the WU blog?
1148. yoboi
Quoting 1146. Patrap:



"Gee"


Look behind you,




Ok....

Quoting 1138. Tazmanian:

in fire fox are you guys getting a script box when coming too this blog ?

Yes, this is what I see:



Try setting your display to 50. That should work. Also, seeing your post reminded me that Pedley had sent me a more permanent solution several weeks ago. I was intending to try it, and forgot about, frankly, as I use Chrome primarily for this site, as it's simply faster. Thanks for jogging my memory! Here is what he sent:

"I use Firefox exclusively and use the NoScript add-on and only allow the scripts needed to get the blog to work which for me are:
wunderground.com
ajax.googleapis.com
wxug.com
the last two make the icons + - \ work.
YMMV...lol
it maybe your computer that is causing some of the issues. Don't know what you have but most of the people that I see complaining about the site seem to have older machines and I do mean older. I have a 2008 Dell Quad core w/Vista Business and have very few script issues. I have newer ones that I run without NoScript but do have AdBlock+ on them. That is also a good thing to have as things load faster. "


Good luck!
Quoting 1144. yoboi:



What is your definition of an extreme weather event??? I am using scientific data and not emotional definition's....

Why fool around with him when you can go to people who actually lose money if they're wrong and see what they have to say?

Or you could, perhaps, peruse some of the actual scientific literature.
1151. Patrap
am i allowed to say SHUT THE HELL UP on the blog???
9.40 inches in our backyard weather station just from overnight. The lightning was incredible just strobeing.
1155. Patrap
Quoting 1148. yoboi:



Ok....




Just to clarify, your source for dat derp is we,,,Derp personified, Breaux

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/


The page begins with this derpish quote too.

Article: The global warming, climate change alarmists have lost the scientific debate so badly that the NSF felt obligated to fund the development of a green propaganda manual to be used in their never ending fear-mongering campaign.



Fair and Balanced

You decide
1157. ricderr
jetstream forecast




1158. Patrap
Quoting 1156. HurriHistory:

Tragic for sure, but if she were wearing a life jacket, do you think she would have survived?


She drowned inside the Vehicle and had called Her Father, and 911. The Water took it downstream.

How many people carry a Life jacket to a Senior Prom??

Quoting 1155. Patrap:



Just to clarify, your source for dat derp is we,,,Derp personified, Breaux

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/


The page begins with this derpish quote too.

Article: The global warming, climate change alarmists have lost the scientific debate so badly that the NSF felt obligated to fund the development of a green propaganda manual to be used in their never ending fear-mongering campaign.



Fair and Balanced

You decide

I poked around that site. It's above-average in delusion. It would be good comedy were the stakes not so high.
1160. Torito
Quoting 1148. yoboi:


Ok....



First. Let's use something more scientific than a denialist site. Let's also use the world as the basis, the USA is simply too small of an area on the globe to base the whole world on. Let's also use the last 50 years as a guideline for "Recent'. As you can see by that data, there are many more 1970s records in the whole world than there are in the united states, something that should be mentioned in a realistic debate. NOAA.
Second. Since when is rain the only severe aspect of weather? No mentions of drought, snow, wind, earthquakes, temperature, or other disasters? One must not look at a small part of a huge problem in order to see a solution or an educated response.
1161. Patrap
Quoting 1159. Misanthroptimist:


I poked around that site. It's above-average in delusion. It would be good comedy were the stakes not so high.


Its a Zoo of idiocy for the weak minded.


Thats post is what it is, flamebait.

Its His M/O.

1162. Torito
Quoting 1161. Patrap:


Its a Zoo of idiocy for the weak minded.


Thats post is what it is, flamebait.

Its His M/O.

He aint from Louisiana I can assure you.



South-Central USA, for those who like Louisiana.
1163. sar2401
Looks like a very considerable improvement overnight around Houston. Most of the river gauges look like they are have peaked and are starting down. The line of storms that caused all the mess in Texas is now moving through the Mobile/Penseacola area. The line is very skinny and is still producing some heavy rain but nothing like further west. There are no severe weather warnings out right now. The fly in the ointment is that the line is starting to develop a tap out into the Gulf. It's 83 here with a dewpoint of 74. The line will contribute to destabilization of the atmosphere over the next several hours in SE AL and that's when I have a chance for some severe weather. As long as this moisture tap isn't maintained as the line moves east, it should be some heavy rain with the chance of a few strong to severe storms. If the line maintains the moisture tap, we may be looking at a similar situation to last April 30. The most likely outcome is that this wholemess moves out of here by tomorrow and we get a couple of says of "normal" wather again.
well scott was right i think some of you own him a apology

this week # are in


The latest weekly SST
departures are:

Niño 4
1.1ºC

Niño 3.4
1.1ºC

Niño 3
1.2ºC

Niño 1+2
2.6ºC
Quoting 1158. Patrap:



She drowned inside the Vehicle and had called Her Father, and 911. The Water took it downstream.

How many people carry a Life jacket to a Senior Prom??




Very sad for sure.

So using the scenario, if she had a lifejacket, and she was inside the car, I'd say no, would not have helped. If she was able to get out of the car, the lifejacket would have helped, but water deep enough and moving that quickly would also have its own dangers, like her getting hit by the car she had just gotten out of. But as said, who carries a lifejacket in their car, to or from the prom.
1166. sar2401
Quoting 1156. HurriHistory:
Tragic for sure, but if she were wearing a life jacket, do you think she would have survived?
Sure. I often see prom queens driving around wearing life jackets.

What kind of question is that?
Tragic. So young. We all make mistakes.

Quoting 1158. Patrap:



She drowned inside the Vehicle and had called Her Father, and 911. The Water took it downstream.

How many people carry a Life jacket to a Senior Prom??


1168. sar2401
Quoting 1153. WaterWitch11:
am i allowed to say SHUT THE HELL UP on the blog???
I've found yelling like that often works well in a bar fight...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
A tragedy that illustrates the dangers associated with evening or night time flooding that is harder to see and judge when you are driving. Turn around don't drown is the rule but local police cannot cover every street that floods to put up a barracade to warn off other drivers. If you are driving in such a situation and hit such an area (with moving waters that you don't wish to cross because of the potential danger), pull over away from the waters, turn on your emergency lights, and call 911 until an officer can get there and assess/block off if necessary.
1171. sar2401
Quoting 1165. MiamiNative:


Very sad for sure.

So using the scenario, if she had a lifejacket, and she was inside the car, I'd say no, would not have helped. If she was able to get out of the car, the lifejacket would have helped, but water deep enough and moving that quickly would also have its own dangers, like her getting hit by the car she had just gotten out of. But as said, who carries a lifejacket in their car, to or from the prom.
The first thing is don't drive into water at night, especially. The second thing is don't spend time calling your father. Get out before it gets worse. The third thing is don't waste your time calling 911 when an entire metropolitan area is flooding. No one is coming to save you.

Unfortunately, many 18 year olds have enough trouble driving when it's sunny and dry out. Almost no 18 year olds have any experience with a flood. No matter what happened, she didn't deserve to die for her mistakes.
1172. MahFL
Quoting 1156. HurriHistory:

Tragic for sure, but if she were wearing a life jacket, do you think she would have survived?


Nope.
Quoting 920. LAbonbon:

I hope calkevin77 and IUCramer are okay. They're in Pflugerville and Round Rock, respectively. Lots of flooding there, per earlier posts. Both towns are part of the 'flash flood emergency'.


Coffee is just kicking in for me this morning. All is well in my neck of the woods. My family and I were lucky. Lots of flooding in the area, and incredible flooding in downtown Austin. Local mets were saying the worst flooding since the Memorial Day flood in 1981. Thankfully when they designed and developed our neighborhood they did a great job taking into account these types of rain bombs that occur. Despite intense rain amounts, no houses received flood damage although there were a couple of fences that were blown out by water rushing out of yards towards the streets.
1174. MahFL
Quoting 1171. sar2401:

Almost no 18 year olds have any experience with a flood. No matter what happened, she didn't deserve to die for her mistakes.


Should have stayed home.
Quoting 1150. Misanthroptimist:


Why fool around with him when you can go to people who actually lose money if they're wrong and see what they have to say?

Or you could, perhaps, peruse some of the actual scientific literature.


Or you could check with a professional statistician.
Quoting 1007. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

We have certainly been getting a lot of rain in Texas, as all are aware. I lost my second cousin Sunday morning when he drove his truck into high water and drown. This was in Blanco, Texas. While this has been stated, repeatedly, do not drive into high water. My second cousin was very familiar with this area and he still under estimated how deep the water was and how strong the current was.


I'm sorry for your loss. We drove through that area Saturday night when the storms were first starting. Some friends left to drive back to Austin about 30 minutes after us and they said that in many of the small towns like Stonewall, Hye, and Johnson City even that the water was already coming across roadways. Glad we left when we did. It amazes me, even with all the awareness campaigns that are done every year, even with the stories of tragedy that we hear, that people will still risk their lives driving through high water. Turn around don't drown is not just a catchy tagline, it's a very real warning.
I have a small ranch in SE AZ El Nino is very important to our winter rains and range condition. The other component is summer's Monsoon. I have not been able to find good predictions for Monsoon. Last summer's monsoon was not great, but it came more as soaking slow winter rains instead of only strong thunderstorm rains.

Is there somewhere to find predictions for Arizona Monsoon season??
1178. vis0

Quoting 1055. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The Earth Sciences Women's Network (ESWN): Community-driven mentoring for women in the atmospheric sciences

Observing and Forecasting Vog Dispersion from Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i

Doppler Radar Analysis of Triple Eyewalls in Typhoon Usagi (2013)

* Europe's Largest Oil Giants Band Together to Add Voice to Climate Debate

The R&B Star Akon and an Emirates Foundation Invest in a Solar Energy Work Force for Africa

*** One-Two Punch of Earthquakes and Landslides Exposes Hydropower Vulnerability in Nepal

*** IS threat to Syria's northern bald ibis near Palmyra



* Climate impacts leave rainforests on edge of destruction

!!! Sudden onset of ice loss in Antarctica so large it affects Earth's gravity field

*** Deciphering clues to prehistoric climate changes locked in cave deposits



*** What would it take to limit climate change to 1.5C by 2100?

!!! Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather: Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries

Surviving harsh environments becomes a death-trap for specialist corals

Climate engineering may save coral reefs, study shows

*** Savannahs slow climate change, experts say

!!! New insights into global ocean microbe-virus interactions, drivers of Earth's ecosystems

Natural gas versus diesel: Examining the climate impacts of natural gas trucks

* Study reveals how eastern US forests came to be

Breastfeeding protects against environmental pollution

One-of-a-kind star discovered, nicknamed 'Nasty'



* Most luminous galaxy in universe discovered



Auroras on Mars



Hubble revisits tangled NGC 6240



* U.S., Canada and Mexico create new climate change partnership

* Malawi forests shrink as power deficit fuels charcoal business

*** Bowwow wow! Dog domestication much older than previously known

How Obama's 'butterfly highway' paves way to save embattled monarchs

Not even Obama's national security argument can get partisans to agree on climate change

* Scientists Make Novel Attempt to Save Giant Turtle Species (with video)

*** Making LED Light Bulbs Less Attractive to Insects

Could England's King Henry I Be Buried Under a Parking Lot?

* 'Peaceful valley': Passaic River is reborn in New Jersey
#11re::  *** What would it take to limit climate change to 1.5C by 2100?
First and foremost...losing the denial that nothing serious is happening due to made generated CO2.


(anyone under 40 skip my #21re, since modern cameras do everything including setting F-stops heck even tell you "your thumb is in the picture"...
#21re* Most luminous galaxy in universe discovered
...uh make sure you didn't leave the F-stop too open? : - P

#31re:: and finally though i can no longer use this wxu members user name, that member would ask as to why is a king using in correct inglish and why is he still talking if he is buried?
England's King Henry "I Be Buried Under a Parking Lot"?


BACK TO the seriousness of flooding and remember flooding takes the most lives cause people think water is "just" water**** that water outside is not the same as the bathtub full of water (don't even think of using the tub as a boat) the water in the tub is still even if you create waves in the tub the tub has a structure (its walls) to control the motion of the water out in the open the walls are the oceans & gulf of Mexico so if yer swept away that's were you'll end up unless they find yer body entangled with with debris.   ****weird if you let people know that that water is dirty and can cause infections and diarrhea then they won't go outside.
Quoting 1119. HaoleboySurfEC:

NJ shore. Steep beaches. Some of the worst rips I have ever witnessed anywhere. Areas with jetties even worse as they trap more water up the beach. It's got to go out somewhere.




Absecon Island (AC, Ventnor, Margate) the beaches usually were nice and long-sloping most of the time. Longport, after Margate, was more upscale boat docking territory. Nevertheless, we had boating and swimming safety lessons in elementary and middle school - I knew how to manage a riptide. Lie on your back, float and stroke parallel to the shoreline until you get to calmer shallows or a lifeguard can get to you. (Or so we were taught.) The difference here was the extreme short, steep surf-line over the undertow, plus the choppy water and crowded surf (damned shoobies!) made that impossible. Never seen anything like that then, or since.
1180. Pieman2
Hi Jeff. It would be interesting to know your view on whetehr El Nino is linked to the temperature in the 40+Cs in Spain last weather and up to 50C in India the last couple of days. Both are execptional.
1181. happer
In west Texas there has been so much rain farmers face a problem they never had. They cant get in fields to plant . They have until June 9 to plant cotton . For those that can will do great probably, if it gets hot enough. But we have not had 90 degree days yet.
For some reason I just now found this blog post with my photo. Thanks Bob for sharing my photo!