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Summer Midwest flooding could rival 1993 as most expensive in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2011

Heavy rains this summer could trigger floods that would rival America's most expensive flood disaster of all-time, said NOAA in a press release yesterday. The most expensive flood in America occurred in 1993, when torrential summer rains caused a $25 billion flood along the Missouri River and surrounding regions of the Upper Midwest. Record 100-year flooding has already occurred along many stretches of the Missouri, Souris, James, North Platte, and other rivers in the Upper Midwest over the past month. With rivers running high and soils completely saturated this summer, just a small amount of rain could trigger more flooding, including areas that have already seen major to record flooding. "The sponge is fully saturated--there is nowhere for any additional water to go," said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer."

Throughout the rest of the summer, the highest flood risk areas include:

- North Central U.S. including Souris River (North Dakota) and Red River of the North (border of North Dakota and Minnesota), Minnesota River (Minnesota), Upper Mississippi River (Minnesota and Iowa), and Des Moines River (Iowa)
- Lower Missouri River from Gavin’s Point (Nebraska and South Dakota border) downstream along the border of Nebraska and Iowa, continuing through the borders of Kansas and Missouri then through Missouri to the Mississippi River
- Tributaries to the Lower Missouri including the James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota
- Lower Ohio River Valley including the White, Wabash and lower Ohio River
- East of Rockies: North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska and Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana
- West of Rockies: Utah and Colorado

The latest 3-month precipitation forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (Figure 1) show an above average chance of heavy rains over much of the Upper Midwest this summer.


Figure 1. Precipitation forecast for July-August-September as issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Above average chances of heavy precipitation (green colors) are expected over much of the Upper Midwest.

June 2011 was highest single month of runoff in Missouri River Basin since 1898
The Army Corps of Engineers announced this week that runoff into the Missouri River Basin above Souix City, Iowa during June was the highest single runoff month since records began in 1898. June 2011 runoff into the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City was 13.8 million acre feet (maf.) The previous record was 13.2 maf in April of 1952; May of this year now holds the record for 3rd greatest runoff, 10.5 maf. The May and June combined runoff totaled 24.3 maf, just short of the normal total annual runoff for the entire basin which is 24.8 maf. Four federal levees and 11 non-federal levees have breached or overtopped across Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri so far this year along the Missouri River.


Figure 2. Flood heights were rising rapidly on the Yellowstone River the night of the pipeline disaster on July 1, 2011. A few hours after the disaster, the river crested just below moderate flood stage of 14' in Billings, about twenty miles downstream from where the pipeline broke in Laurel, Montana. This was the 3rd highest flood on record at this location, with records extending back to 1904. Image credit: NWS.

Oil spill in Yellowstone River likely influenced by flooding
An Exxon Mobil oil pipeline under the Yellowstone River burst on Friday night, spilling at least 42,000 gallons of oil into the river. The prevailing theory among officials and the company is that the raging Yellowstone eroded the riverbed and exposed the line to damaging rocks or debris. The river was rising rapidly the night of the break, and crested at 13.95', the third highest flood in recorded history. Records extend back to 1904 at the site. Crude has been reported as far as 240 miles downstream, although most appears to be concentrated in the first 25 miles. The Yellowstone is a tributary of the Missouri River.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 96L and the tropical wave approaching South America.

Invest 96L in the Atlantic little threat
An area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico centered just west of the Florida Keys has been labeled Invest 96L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under high wind shear, about 20 - 25 knots, and the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts the shear will be 15 - 25 knots over the next two days as 96L moves slowly northwards towards the Florida Panhandle. The high shear should keep any development slow. Water vapor satellite images show that 96L is located on the east side of an upper-level low pressure system centered a few hundred miles south of New Orleans. This upper level low is pumping dry, stable air into the west side of 96L, which will retard development. There is no sign of a surface circulation in 96L, and none of the reliable computer models is developing it. NHC is giving 96L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.

The other area of note is a tropical wave about 600 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is under 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some modest development before moving ashore over the northern coast of South America on Saturday. NHC is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The disturbance is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin much, which will slow any possible development.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think we are seeing the beginnings of TD2/Bret near 25N 86W...buoys in SE Gulf are running btw 15-30kts. Recon will verify later today. The next TWO will be very interesting.
1002. aquak9
Jacksonville- here
Dayshift- waiting
Nightshift- check
Donuts- gone
Coffee- check
Overcast- check
96L- iffy
Rain for Ne Fla- iffy
Launch- iffy
seems to be drifting west
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Radar looking iffy but not as bad as a few hours ago.



NWS radar Loop from Melbourne, FL, Melbourne, FL Radar, Long Range Base Reflectivity
e.cen fl. wierd but you want it bad now so it does not warm up once its warms boom boom around 11 press once again are exagerrating the numbers of people here.
I know the florida panhandle and S. Georgia will take what we can get. The rain has been a little better the past couple weeks here in the Greater Savannah area, but we have had 6 days of air quality warnings the past two weeks due to smoke from wildfires in the Okefenokee Swamp, and other locations. A nice TD or weak TS is exactly what this area needs.
Know an 11 year old who traveled there from south Florida, and really wants to see the last launch with his own eyes. He's been talking about this trip for weeks.

Just don't want to see him disappointed but NASA doesn't control the weather...yet...{chuckle}

Quoting islander101010:
e.cen fl. wierd but you want it bad now so it does not warm up once its warms boom boom around 11 press once again are exagerrating the numbers of people here.
1007. ryandad
Quoting Seawall:
Really dry air over SW Louisiana today; and the satelite prove it. We had showers off and on until today, and they were pretty much shut down with the ULL parked over the Northern GOM. One cumulous tried to develop, and had some thunder; lasted about thirty minutes, then it's top got sheared off from NE to SW.


I wonder if you are referring to that one cumulous that kept me shaded as I mowed my yard last evening? I was very grateful and it was impressive with the sun behind it.

I laugh as I type as we now treat "that one cumulous" as "a siting" as opposed to an expected 4:00 pm summer afternoon event.
Good morning all.

Invest 96L is looking...errr...nice this morning (not really)?



At least Calvin is strengthening...but leaving the screen:



Our wave in the Atlantic approaching South America has lot a lot of its convection, must be separating away from the ITCZ.


morning, nice looking wave exiting the african coast. conditions ahead of it looks very conducive eand this could be our first cape verde system. none of the reliable models are not developing the wave at this stage
Is this the wave you guys are talking about? It will lose most, if not all, of its convection today coming off of its heat source just like the tropical wave approaching the South American coast will lose its when it fully separates from the ITCZ. It's nothing to really watch at this time, but it is an impressive-looking wave attm.

Can't remember which model it was.there was one that showed this system sheared,with one section riding up the east coast and another weak low developing and moving toward the north central gulf coast.Appears to me, that is what is happening.Looks like a severly sheared and decoupled system.I think that one set of models are tracking the sheared trough to the east.The other models are showing the weak low moving northwest.i give this system little chance of developing.In regards to movement; check the the latest coordinates is that north or nne?I do not think so lol.Personally I would be surpised if a yellow circle was not back in play for this system.It is however moving very slowly and the upper low seems to be moving faster to the west,lets see if this does it any good.And unless this pattern changes we are in for a repeat of last year.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning, nice looking wave exiting the african coast. conditions ahead of it looks very conducive eand this could be our first cape verde system. none of the reliable models are not developing the wave at this stage
lots of fair weather clouds in the mdr right now not yet
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Know an 11 year old who traveled there from south Florida, and really wants to see the last launch with his own eyes. He's been talking about this trip for weeks.

Just don't want to see him disappointed but NASA doesn't control the weather...yet...{chuckle}

staying cool if it would drizzle alittle we'd be set
1014. scott39
Goodmorning, It looks like 96L has changed in direction quite a bit, and the models have spread again. the pressure has dropped a little and convection looks weak as of now. Does anyone know if it is suppossed to speed up and are the conditions going to be more favorable before landfall?
1015. geepy86
Quoting islander101010:
e.cen fl. wierd but you want it bad now so it does not warm up once its warms boom boom around 11 press once again are exagerrating the numbers of people here.

Went to T-ville last night, almost think those numbers are spot on.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, It looks like 96L has changed in direction quite a bit, and the models have spread again. the pressure has dropped a little and convection looks weak as of now. Does anyone know if it is suppossed to speed up and are the conditions going to be more favorable before landfall?


A lot of 96L's convection is under low shear of 5-10 knots, but its circulation is under 40 knots. The ULL is moving to the west very slowly, which will gradually drop shear over the entire system, but it may not be fast enough to allow for development. I won't rule out a tropical depression at this point, but its unlikely.
Our next African system, very healthy.... Maybe an invest soon..
It appears the tropical wave in the central Atlantic has already separated itself from the ITCZ, which would be the cause of the recent thunderstorm dissipation. As it looks to only scrape South America, it will need to be watched in the western/southwestern Caribbean for development.

1020. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A lot of 96L's convection is under low shear of 5-10 knots, but its circulation is under 40 knots. The ULL is moving to the west very slowly, which will gradually drop shear over the entire system, but it may not be fast enough to allow for development. I won't rule out a tropical depression at this point, but its unlikely.
Thanks, Is the ULL moving in tandem with the COC and is it expected to stay that way? The reason I ask is because the COC is moving slow and due W according to the Tropical Atlantic Site. This gives more time over water than last nights forecasted path. That water is very hot right now, and if that ULL moves away faster from the COC, we may have a suprise!
Most recent (12:25 AM EDT) pass by OSCAT on 96L showed a mostly trof apperance.





Pass yesterday afternoon showed more cyclonic circulation.


It is not too early to have July cape verde storms. we had bertha in 1996 and 2008. also had Abby in 1960 which killed six persons on the island of St Lucia. the wave off Afica is moving into an enviroment which is conducive for development.after a few runs of the reliable models, we might see one or two come on board.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, It looks like 96L has changed in direction quite a bit, and the models have spread again. the pressure has dropped a little and convection looks weak as of now. Does anyone know if it is suppossed to speed up and are the conditions going to be more favorable before landfall?


Don't be deceived by the satellite, 96L is giving us torrential rain, frequent lighting and gusty winds to about 40 mph. We just got an additional 1.56 in just 18 minutes this morning making the 24 hour total over 5 inches here. So don't tell me 96L doesn't have deep convection :) lol

I know what you are trying to say though haha
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Is the ULL moving in tandem with the COC and is it expected to stay that way? The reason I ask is because the COC is moving slow and due W according to the Tropical Atlantic Site. This gives more time over water than last nights forecasted path. That water is very hot right now, and if that ULL moves away faster from the COC, we may have a suprise!


Not necessarily. The ULL is moving very slowly to the west, while 96L is just kind of meandering. It hasn't moved all that much in the past 24 hours, but the ULL has. Shear will probably relax...but not until tonight into morning morning, which is when landfall was originally expected. I'm kind of doubting that at the moment, unless 96L decides to speed up.
This African wave already seems very organized and looks like it has no major obstacles for development through the Atl.

96L is *cough* ugly
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Quoting sunlinepr:
This African wave already looks very organized and looks like it has no major obstacles for development through the Atl.



Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Check



Wind Shear: Check



Moisture: Check

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Stewart...Stewart...Stewart...Should have never raised it to 40%, but I guess it was a good call at the time (not really)?


down to 10%.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Check



Wind Shear: Check



Moisture: Check



Thanks for the analysis resources...
1034. scott39
Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't be deceived by the satellite, 96L is giving us torrential rain, frequent lighting and gusty winds to about 40 mph. We just got an additional 1.56 in just 18 minutes this morning making the 24 hour total over 5 inches here. So don't tell me 96L doesn't have deep convection :) lol

I know what you are trying to say though haha
Sounds like 96L is acting like he wants to be named over where you are haha. I dont like that big of a direction change over more water. Yea, the ULL will keep it check while its going the same direction, but when it decides to pull more N..... It will have more time for low wind shear, hot water, and lowering pressures! If I understand correctly?
1035. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Sounds like 96L is acting like he wants to be named over where you are haha. I dont like that big of a direction change over more water. Yea, the ULL will keep it check while its going the same direction, but when it decides to pull more N..... It will have more time for low wind shear, hot water, and lowering pressures! If I understand correctly?
Quoting scott39:
Sounds like 96L is acting like he wants to be named over where you are haha. I dont like that big of a direction change over more water. Yea, the ULL will keep it check while its going the same direction, but when it decides to pull more N..... It will have more time for low wind shear, hot water, and lowering pressures! If I understand correctly?
Well it looks like the NHC forecaster...just ripped my idea apart!! LOL
It's interesting to see that 96L's wind speeds have decreases to 25 mph (was at 30 mph), but its pressure went down to 1010 mb. (was at 1011 mb.).
From one extreme to the other...Stewart --> Avila.
Good morning.
96L looks...uhh...
Honestly guys its a very good thing our wave looks horrible today becuase its detaching from the itcz so it wont run into south america. it has gained some latitude and is going to move over extreme northern south america and the wind ward islands. could develop in the westen carribean next week and a monster wave came off africa. looks fine now. we shud see what it looks like tomorrow.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning.
96L looks...uhh...


...RIP?
1041. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's interesting to see that 96L's wind speeds have decreases to 25 mph (was at 30 mph), but its pressure went down to 1010 mb. (was at 1011 mb.).
I noticed that too. The NHC must now think the ULL is going to stay close until landfall...with the lowering to 10%.
1042. IKE

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From one extreme to the other...Stewart --> Avila.
Stewart seems to build up a system too much...consistently.
If 96L can make it to Florida's Atlantic Coast, even for a short time it will be better off then where it is now. That ULL is a system murderer.
Quoting IKE:

Stewart seems to build up a system too much...consistently.


Wasn't he the one that took 95L of last year from 0% to 60%?
1046. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From one extreme to the other...Stewart --> Avila.
Do you know who has a better track record at forecasting?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wasn't he the one that took 95L of last year from 0% to 60%?


95L...the CATL wave?
Quoting MrstormX:


...RIP?

No. Not yet.
Quoting MrstormX:


95L...the CATL wave?


No, that's 92L. Remember the little system south of the Louisiana coastline?
Quoting scott39:
Do you know who has a better track record at forecasting?


Probably Avila.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, that's 92L. Remember the little system south of the Louisiana coastline?


Ohh gesh, that little speck on the map. I totally forgot about that persistent little bugger.
1052. scott39
With more time over the water and the ULL moving off... I wouldnt write 96L off just yet. Ive seen too many changes with systems this close to the Gulf Coast over the years. IMHO of course.
Good Morning. Been waiting in Tallahassee since last night for some substantial rain which has not come yet but a steady drizzle this morning. Looking at the loops on 96 (rain event) L, seems like the Tampa-St. Pete area has gotten a huge chunk of the rain on the W Florida Coast; still banding through there this morning. Anyone having trouble logging on to the NOAA tropical satt page this am?..........Thanks.
Quoting MrstormX:


...RIP?
does not seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere rip no not until the suspected low makes landfall
95L was that system south of the Louisiana coastline in early July of last year. Had winds of TS-force, a circulation, and deep convection. The ATCF had it as a tropical depression, but the NHC never classified it.

1057. scott39
I would rather see a forecaster stick thier neck out a little and be wrong.... when its this close to land. Than be too conservative and catch people off guard. Im not saying that this will happen with 96L, but you get my point.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 28.2N 85.0W
E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 09/0430Z
D. 29.4N 84.8W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting MrstormX:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 28.2N 85.0W
E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 09/0430Z
D. 29.4N 84.8W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Still flying for today? Won't find much...
Good Morning,

My question is, will 96L leave a window open for the last shuttle to fly through at 11am?
Well...so much for it going overland and weakening some.

1062. IKE

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wasn't he the one that took 95L of last year from 0% to 60%?
Yes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well...so much for it going overland and weakening some.



Yet Avila won't even give it 10%, lol...if it were stewart we would be at like 60%.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still flying for today? Won't find much...



i would look at the date he was posting old info
Stewart:



Avila:


1068. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well...so much for it going overland and weakening some.

Now, we will see if the ULL saves the day until landfall.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i would look at the date he was posting old info


That isn't old.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i would look at the date he was posting old info


Yeah, the POTD is posted the day before...and twas never canceled.
Nice wave off the coast of Africa. I would pay more attention to it than to 96L.
Holy rainstorm, Batman.

It's pouring here in Clearwater... Been doing so all morning!
Well 10 percent sounds right agree with everything he said except movement to the north to nne.But i think what i put in my earlier post pretty well nailed it lol got one right for a change.Looks like the td5 in the gulf last year.naked swirl came in to the coast and right offshore tried to redevelop like 92l did last year.Still think this thing is two systems.Weak naked low moving nw, sheared trough moving to the ne.Sum it up nothing to get excited about except the possibility of some much needed rain.As I said earlier if this pattern remains the same another repeat of last year in store.I know we will hear the MJO is going to change all season long but ,did we not here that consatantly last year?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning,

My question is, will 96L leave a window open for the last shuttle to fly through at 11am?
getting sunny outside that not good news fora launch going to ride my bike down the the beeline causeway banana river around 10 to check the crowds out
Quoting TampaTom:
Holy rainstorm, Batman.

It's pouring here in Clearwater... Been doing so all morning!



Yes, it was an enjoyable commute this morning. Heavy line came through timed perfectly with me departing for work.
Sure the African Wave is nice, but it might fizzle now that it is over open waters and it is still way to close to the ITCZ. But could we see another 92L like last year, absolutely.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Nice wave off the coast of Africa. I would pay more attention to it than to 96L.

Most definitely. Very impressive wave. 96L will bring nothing more than some much needed rain for the lower Gulf coast.
1079. scott39
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well 10 percent sounds right agree with everything he said except movement to the north to nne.But i think what i put in my earlier post pretty well nailed it lol got one right for a change.Looks like the td5 in the gulf last year.naked swirl came in to the coast and right offshore tried to redevelop like 92l did last year.Still think this thing is two systems.Weak naked low moving nw, sheared trough moving to the ne.Sum it up nothing to get excited about except the possibility of some much needed rain.As I said earlier if this pattern remains the same another repeat of last year in store.I know we will hear the MJO is going to change all season long but ,did we not here that consatantly last year?
I wonder why he said 96L is moving N/NNE. Its moving WNW.
Quoting MrstormX:


Yeah, the POTD is posted the day before...and twas never canceled.
Yes, but it needs to be checked a little later to see if it is still flying. You won't usually see whether it is cancelled or not until around 10 am EST.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well 10 percent sounds right agree with everything he said except movement to the north to nne.But i think what i put in my earlier post pretty well nailed it lol got one right for a change.Looks like the td5 in the gulf last year.naked swirl came in to the coast and right offshore tried to redevelop like 92l did last year.Still think this thing is two systems.Weak naked low moving nw, sheared trough moving to the ne.Sum it up nothing to get excited about except the possibility of some much needed rain.As I said earlier if this pattern remains the same another repeat of last year in store.I know we will hear the MJO is going to change all season long but ,did we not here that consatantly last year?

I agree to an extent the pattern is not much different from last years. At least not at the moment. I don't think it'll be well into August (at the least) until we begin to see the meat and potatoes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
03E/TS/C/Cx
MARK
16.05N/104.5W
And imho, i think the reason they wrote off 96l is because its moving more west right into the dry slot which it has no chance to develop.Now if by some outside chance the low could redevelop under the tst's to the NE then it could have a small chance but not much time due to proxemity to land

MJO now shows upward motion for the end of july. 2 days ago it should huge downward motion...
1086. scott39
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
And imho, i think the reason they wrote off 96l is because its moving more west right into the dry slot which it has no chance to develop.Now if by some outside chance the low could redevelop under the tst's to the NE then it could have a small chance but not much time due to proxemity to land
Now that makes sense to me... compared to the the NHC forecast. Thanks
1087. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning.
96L looks...uhh...
Like scrambled eggs without yolk..Good morning
Hey don't go knocking Stewart.. He was perfectly justified in bringing it up to 40% at that time. Don't take your bitter anger on 96L falling apart afterwards on Stewart. He's a better forecast than anyone on this blog for sure.
60 to 70% chance of thunder storms for LA 24Hr not bad
30 to 40% for parts of Tx better then nothing i guess

1090. scott39
How can the pressure drop with 96L, with the ULL ripping off the convection?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Hey don't go knocking Stewart.. He was perfectly justified in bringing it up to 40% at that time. Don't take your bitter anger on 96L falling apart afterwards on Stewart. He's a better forecast than anyone on this blog for sure.


Good morning to you too.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It's center is tightening up on that loop.
Quoting hydrus:
Like scrambled eggs without yolk..Good morning

Great now I'm hungry XD
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great now I'm hungry XD


Computer cooperating this morning?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good morning to you too.


Sorry, it wasn't aimed at anyone specifically, but I get tired of all this NHC bashing.
1098. scott39
Will 96L see a buildup of convection on the E side before landfall?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Hey don't go knocking Stewart.. He was perfectly justified in bringing it up to 40% at that time. Don't take your bitter anger on 96L falling apart afterwards on Stewart. He's a better forecast than anyone on this blog for sure.

What a way to say Good Morning.
1035 scott39 "Well it looks like the NHC forecaster...just ripped my idea apart!! LOL"

meh... They've been predicting movement "NE over the next 6hours" for 24hours, and 96L has been traveling NW shifting to dueWest over the same 24hours.
NASA's meteorologists certainly didn't expect movement northeastward, cuz the Shuttle woulda never been fueled if they had.
Quoting scott39:
Will 96L see a buildup of convection on the E side before landfall?


I don't know, none of us have a crystal ball.
1102. scott39
Quoting aspectre:
1035 scott39 "Well it looks like the NHC forecaster...just ripped my idea apart!! LOL"

meh... They've been predicting movement "NE over the next 6hours" for 24hours, and 96L has been traveling NW shifting to dueWest over the same 24hours.
NASA's meteorologists certainly didn't expect movement northeastward, cuz the Shuttle woulda never been fueled if they had.
Do you think the ULL will keep it in check until landfall?
had really strong tropical wx around 5am,its been windy ever since,winds sustained around 20-25,gust to 40...the gom looks like a washing mashine, i'll try and take a pic or to and post soon,i live on siesta key here in sarasota
1102 scott39 "Do you think the ULL will keep it in check until landfall?

Haven't a clue. But the ULL appears to be edging northward and maybe eastward, forcing 96L to travel under it toward the centralGulf.
1105. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't know, none of us have a crystal ball.
Are you 13?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Computer cooperating this morning?

Barely. I'm lucky the page could load.
Quoting scott39:
Are you 13?


Yeah.
Quoting aspectre:
1035 scott39 "Well it looks like the NHC forecaster...just ripped my idea apart!! LOL"

meh... They've been predicting movement "NE over the next 6hours" for 24hours, and 96L has been traveling NW shifting to dueWest over the same 24hours.
NASA's meteorologists certainly didn't expect movement northeastward, cuz the Shuttle woulda never been fueled if they had.


Yep
1109. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah.
Did you mean to be sarcastic, with the last answer you gave me?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What a way to say Good Morning.


What a way to copy what TropicalAnalyst said XD
Looks like the wave just now emerging off the African coast is going to be a player in the coming days. What's keeping this from being an invest right now?
Quoting scott39:
Did you mean to be sarcastic, with the last answer you gave me?


The crystal ball? I was joking, not being sarcastic.
Its bes not to ask bloggers their age...sounds kinda of stupid.
1114. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The crystal ball? I was joking, not being sarcastic.
ok--cool.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Looks like the wave just now emerging off the African coast is going to be a player in the coming days. What's keeping this from being an invest right now?


An invest is designated as a way for the National Hurricane Center to watch an area of interest more. With no model support, no circulation, and the fact that its a long way away from any landmass, that's why it isn't designated. I doubt they would tag something as far out as this, since we aren't in the Cape Verde season yet.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


What a way to copy what TropicalAnalyst said XD

lol
I can't believe they would even tag this in the first place...Look at it, It burns my eyes! XD

invest_DEACTIVATE_al962011.ren 08-Jul-2011 12:50 1.3K
Quoting blsealevel:
60 to 70% chance of thunder storms for LA 24Hr not bad
30 to 40% for parts of Tx better then nothing i guess

Not sure where you are getting this info? In South Central Texas we have a 10 percent chance of a shower Monday.

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER N TX/NM AND ON THE WEST SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW/TUTT
OVER SRN LA/NRN GULF TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE LITTLE
CHANGE...CONTINUED HOT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
SERN COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THE UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO S TX UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING SUBTLE WEATHER CHANGES. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OF MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO S TX FROM THE
EAST AND A RETURN TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS DO TREND TOWARD MOVING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER NORTH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUTTING S TX ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OPENING
THE DOOR FOR EASTERLY WAVES TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.
And the sounds of thunder starts the daily routine of teasing us with a thunderstorm. Maybe we'll actually get something today, we're at 60% :D
1121. HarryMc
Looking at local conditions down around the space center it still appears to be good chance of the shuttle lifting off on time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe they would even tag this in the first place...Look at it, It burns my eyes! XD


I think something crawled up in there and died. I mean just LOOK AT IT! Makes me wanna puke.
If we don't get that thunderstorm to the west of Wilmington headed NE...I'm going to be mad. There was a really strong thunderstorm yesterday with strong winds, lightning, hail, and heavy rain, and it made the sky really dark. You know what it did? Teased us and passed right by us.



U8 is the storm ID.
1124. kwgirl
Good morning everyone. By the looks of the radar and satelitte pics, it seems the worst of the weather has passed over the Keys. I don't know if the afternoon heat will fire up anymore storms, but it looks hopeful for the shuttle liftoff IMO. The keys have been bathed clean of the coral dust and looks like the weather will be beautiful for the weekend.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


An invest is designated as a way for the National Hurricane Center to watch an area of interest more. With no model support, no circulation, and the fact that its a long way away from any landmass, that's why it isn't designated. I doubt they would tag something as far out as this, since we aren't in the Cape Verde season yet.


Would like to see some vortice maps and also upper level conditions. Just only looking at the visible there is clearly some sort of circulation be it mid level maybe and also notice the ventalation on the north, west and south sides of the system.
1126. FLdewey
I would say RIP... but I don't think it was ever alive in the first place.
Quoting FLdewey:
I would say RIP... but I don't think it was ever alive in the first place.


lmao
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Would like to see some vortice maps and also upper level conditions. Just only looking at the visible there is clearly some sort of circulation be it mid level maybe and also notice the ventalation on the north, west and south sides of the system.


850 mb. vorticity (yes, the wave is in these images):



700 mb vorticity:



500 mb. vorticity:



Why is it wrong to tell ones age .Im 46 and proud of it.Maybe if we are ashamed of our ages the Good Lord might make sure we do not age anymore lol.And the reason most want tell thier age on here is because this blog has turned into a under 15 blog lol.Wait till school starts a lot of these names want appear nearly as often Mon Thru Fri.I have two boys one 16 and one 11.My wife sets a time limit that they are allowed on the computer.The oldest is interested in girls and attends daily varsity football and soccer workouts. The youngest is forced to spend outside time and other activities such as reading a book .Seems like book reading for kids has became extinct.I read a article that America has the most obese teens in the world.I think computers cell phones and other electronic devices contribute to that.I honestly am not a Obama fan, but his push for outdoor activity for our youth is right on.As a parent I intend to make sure my kids are pyhsically active and spiritually active.When i was growing up in the 70's 8 miles from the coast.We would fish playball, and check out the girls lol.Also we were made to take a one week enrollment to a vacation bible school.i appreciate today the way my parents raised me and try to raise mine the same way.So far it has worked with Gods help.Sorry for the off topic but that age drama really rubs me wrong.And in closing its not the kids fault we are raising a lazy soiety its us parents fault.
Beautiful morning here on the space coast, hope it doesnt warm up too quickly!
Traffic is already a mess, hope they get the shuttle up on time today
1131. Grothar
just to give an update on the wave near 60 west i am located in grenada and conditions have been varying this morning; last night there was a lot of thunder and lightening now only thunder this morning with lots of rain primarily this wave is showing small signs that it wants to consolidate and i do believe wit would just before reaching the islands conditions are not primed and a tropical storm is not sen at this moment but if it is moving slower than when it was in the itcz then we may be in for a surprise !
Sorry, somehow duplicated my comment1100 in 1104 while thinking I was answering scot39's comment1102.
Came from working multiple tabs on multiple pages on this site.

Comment1104 has been corrected.
WoW, what happened to 96L? Looks like it puttered out. Looks like nothing more than a rain event IMO.
1135. Grothar
1136. srada
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If we don't get that thunderstorm to the west of Wilmington headed NE...I'm going to be mad. There was a really strong thunderstorm yesterday with strong winds, lightning, hail, and heavy rain, and it made the sky really dark. You know what it did? Teased us and passed right by us.



U8 is the storm ID.


Got thundering over here, pretty dark sky but no rain..hits and misses for us coastal counties today
1137. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
Sorry, somehow duplicated my comment1100 in 1104 while thinking I was answering scot39's comment1102.
Came from working multiple tabs on this site.

Comment1104 has been corrected.


You want to run that by us again????
Quoting weatherxtreme:
WoW, what happened to 96L? Looks like it puttered out. Looks like nothing more than a rain event IMO.


However, it is amazing what a weak invest can do. Here in Pinellas County we got 2 inches yesterday and 5 inches this morning since 5am. With a lot more on the way.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. By the looks of the radar and satelitte pics, it seems the worst of the weather has passed over the Keys. I don't know if the afternoon heat will fire up anymore storms, but it looks hopeful for the shuttle liftoff IMO. The keys have been bathed clean of the coral dust and looks like the weather will be beautiful for the weekend.


Getting rid of the dust with the rain makes such a difference. Didn't realize how dirty everything was until it was clean!
Quoting Grothar:


Looks more like an August/September wave doesn't it?
Quoting clwstmchasr:


However, it is amazing what a weak invest can do. Here in Pinellas County we got 2 inches yesterday and 5 inches this morning since 5am. With a lot more on the way.
I'm surprised there aren't any areal flood advisories for Pinellas yet.

I live in NW Hillsborough where Tarpon Springs/Keystone Rd ends. Watching the 3"+ rainfall totals slowly work their way east.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


However, it is amazing what a weak invest can do. Here in Pinellas County we got 2 inches yesterday and 5 inches this morning since 5am. With a lot more on the way.


Exactly, here in NE Florida we got some good needed rain here too yesterday for better part of the day and we are supposed to have plenty more headed this way too around 70% chance this afternoon.
bye,bye 96l deactivated...with the strong winds and heavy wx we had this morni g i could swear a tc is formi g close by,i wouldnt right it off until tonight imo....i wonder if long term it has a shot of reemerging off nc into the atlantic and than streghten to a tc,loop back towards fls east coast???
Quoting weatherxtreme:


Exactly, here in NE Florida we got some good needed rain here too yesterday for better part of the day and we are supposed to have plenty more headed this way too around 70% chance this afternoon.
Well, it's definitely on its way in your general direction. Central Florida is getting inundated this morning
The radar hasn't change for 4 1/2 hours. Getting pounded along the west coast.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Looks like the wave just now emerging off the African coast is going to be a player in the coming days. What's keeping this from being an invest right now?


Still in the ITCZ...let it get out of there and still look healthy and you'll see an invest or TD and a floater!
1147. crankin
FLWeatherFreak, you are right in my neck of the woods, Crescent Road here in Odessa. More rain on the way, I hope. Fills up the lake.
Finally going to get a nice chunk of rain in Northern Florida today as the convection loops to the North. Ex-96L was actually a great blessing for Florida....He never made TD status but great rainmaker.
1149. lhwhelk
Quoting clwstmchasr:


However, it is amazing what a weak invest can do. Here in Pinellas County we got 2 inches yesterday and 5 inches this morning since 5am. With a lot more on the way.
We would be happy to have it rain on our parade. South of Houston we are still parched, and only get teasers--"rain" that muddies the dust on the car, or lightning that is just sound and fury, signifying nothing.
&transx
Quoting crankin:
FLWeatherFreak, you are right in my neck of the woods, Crescent Road here in Odessa. More rain on the way, I hope. Fills up the lake.
I'm on Lake Hiawatha
Very very impressive tropical wave rolling off of Africa. I haven't taken a look at the SAL or the Upper Level WIndshear yet. Are they conducive for this system to develop? It certainly looks impressive on satellite.
1153. crankin
Lake Island Ford here. It should be an interesting season, to say the least.
TropicalStormCalvin ( _ATCF_ ) last 24hours

14.8n101.4w, 30knots, 1005millibars, TropicalDepression
15.3n102.6w, 30knots, 1004millibars, TropicalDepression
15.8n103.9w, 35knots, 1003millibars, TropicalStorm
16.0n105.2w, 45knots, 1000millibars, TropicalStorm
16.1n106.3w, 50knots,,, 997millibars, TropicalStorm
All of Pinellas County appears to be in for another round of training thunderstorms from now till early afternoon. IMO at least 2-3" more will fall today.
The African wave is more developed than I originally thought. It has a better wind shift than the tropical wave approaching South America did.

... Strong thunderstorms will affect southwestern Hillsborough...
southeastern Pinellas and northwestern Manatee counties...

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates strong thunderstorms
located 12 miles southwest of Bradenton Beach... or 19 miles west of
Bradenton... moving northeast at 20 mph. These storms will affect
Bradenton Beach... Cortez... Holmes Beach and Anna Maria
Island... until 1030 am EDT.

Gusty winds 35 to 45 mph will occur. Occasional lightning is
expected. To be safe go indoors immediately. If caught
outside... find a low spot... and stay away from tall objects. When
driving through heavy rain... slow down. Always leave a safe distance
between you and other vehicles.
1161. Buhdog
Anyone think ex96l makes a comeback? I love a good surprise once in awhile! Feeling ripped off in Cape Coral..only 1/2 of rain so far.

This radar makes it look like a closed low is coming ashore just north of Tampa (I know its not)
Link
1162. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:


Even more amazing is the effect on the WU community.

LMAO... so true.
1163. Levi32
Wow, that's cool-looking:

When it stops raining, they'll complain the drought is still bad, we need more rain
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, that's cool-looking:



Cool looking for July; a DOOM scenario in mid-August...... :)
the wave at 21n 35w is a big one no covection though see what happens
the storm off the coast of Africa looks like it could be a TD really quick...
like i been saying for the past few days 96L cant develop with the ULL off the la coasts...this can only be a rain maker for some parts of the gulf coast...the tropics are very quiet and look to stay that way the rest of july...
1170. SLU
Welcome to the Atlantic hurricane season....

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1171. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks more like an August/September wave doesn't it?


It do?
1172. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, that's cool-looking:



Hey, Levi, I posted it first! And mine was in color.:) What are you doing up so early?
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 8th, with Video


yes Levi nice Tibet but one correction u said leeward anti lies its lesser anti lies cool well we could be seeing something form sooner rather than later
is that the wave coming off africa that u were talking about levi that might turn into something right off the bat.
1175. Levi32
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


yes Levi nice Tibet but one correction u said leeward anti lies its lesser anti lies cool well we could be seeing something form sooner rather than later


Meant windward...
welcome to the saharan dust and the cooler ssts also....the waves coming off of africa are going to have a hard time developing for 3 reasons...
1 where they come off the coast is very important 8 degrees will the ssts are warmer but it indicates a true west motion and moves into central america...

2 the ssts are cooler then normal and the ssps are higher then normal

3 finally the saharan dust is the killer of all these waves to much dry air...

until this changes the cape verdes season will not be very active this year which indicates a very low number of hurricanes...
1177. Levi32
Quoting southernbell72:
is that the wave coming off africa that u were talking about levi that might turn into something right off the bat.


I said the GFS wanted to turn it into something yesterday, but has since dropped it. I doubt much will come of it.
1178. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, that's cool-looking:



A nice little westward extension into the ATL of the monsoon trough supporting this feature, maybe. Lately, the trough has had a SW/NE orientation remaining almost completely over land. No real model indications that the monsoon will build much farther west.

Interesting to see how good it looks W of 20W.

Thanks for the loop.

1137 Grothar "You want to run that by us again????"

Oh sure, like I'm s'poseta be able to figger out what I writ.
1180. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Levi, I posted it first! And mine was in color.:) What are you doing up so early?


Get with the program, Gro. I've been getting up at 4am my time every morning since June 1st :P
1181. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Get with the program, Gro. I've been getting up at 4am my time every morning since June 1st :P


I do too, but I am sure it is for another reason. LOL Unusual to see a strong wave like that emerge so early in the season. Last one I can remember was back in 1947.

Quoting Levi32:


Meant windward...
lol yep mistakes but hey the wave is really letting go alot of rain here in grenada and the thunder is a bit muffled but since this morning the highest wind gust has been atleast 12 - 15mph in and around showers
1183. Levi32
Quoting beell:


A nice little westward extension into the ATL of the monsoon trough supporting this feature, maybe. Lately, the trough has had a SW/NE orientation remaining almost completely over land. No real model indications that the monsoon will build much farther west.

Interesting to see how good it looks W of 20W.

Thanks for the loop.



The models have it following along the current ITCZ boundary as well, which takes it well south of 10N by the time it reaches the central Atlantic. Just a sign of bigger things to come in a month or so.
1184. srada


Lots of rain!
1185. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


I do too, but I am sure it is for another reason. LOL Unusual to see a strong wave like that emerge so early in the season. Last one I can remember was back in 1947.



You're saying July 4th, 2008 doesn't count?

.
well it is just my opinion , but think we might have some worries with that wave, its nice and round and spinny looking .lol. sorry , live on the westbank of orleans and anything that comes out with a little bit of prettyness to it , scares the crap out of me
1188. P451
Quoting weatherxtreme:
WoW, what happened to 96L? Looks like it puttered out. Looks like nothing more than a rain event IMO.


The ULL proved too hostile for it to develop further. Early yesterday morning the ULL was pulling away, shear relaxed to the 20kt or so range, and we saw 96L tagged and we saw it begin was appeared to be substantial development - seemed to be heading towards sub-tropical formation - as convection began to fire and wrap around the west side of the broad low center.

Had that continued we'd have a ST depression or weak ST Storm right now.

Instead around noon yesterday the ULL became more dominant, shear increased up to 40kt on the west side of 96L, and generally tore it apart while injecting a lot of dry air into it's center.

Thoughts were that would once again wane and conditions would become favorable this morning for 96L to develop further.

It hasn't been the case.

Early on 96L was going to only be a rainy and breezy event for Florida. Most on here felt it had a chance to be anywhere from the disturbance we saw in front of us up to a borderline weak tropical/sub tropical storm.

It stayed on the weaker end as a result of the ULL's influence (shear, dry air).

In the end it's window of opportunity was much smaller than forecasted. The influence of the ULL was under forecasted.

And... RIP 96L as a result.

How do you get a picture in your block by your name , cant figure it out.
Quoting Levi32:


You're saying July 4th, 2008 doesn't count?



He's trying to joke with you LOL
Quoting Levi32:


You're saying July 4th, 2008 doesn't count?


Levi the tropical wave currently in the windwards wont affect the US right? and the wave that came off africa has a favorable environment out ahead of it. you think it will be marked an invest?
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 8th, with Video



Boy was I wrong last night, good call as always Levi and others that insisted on the demise of 96L.

That wave coming off Africa looks like the real deal. May have decent conditions coming up as well with the upper pattern sort of flattening out a bit over the US, not sure about the C-Atl however. A large plume of dust is out ahead of the wave but seems to be far enough along to not be much of an issue for it. Upper pattern would seem to support low tracks through the Caribbean however, much too far out to guess at this point.
1193. P451
Quoting FLdewey:
I would say RIP... but I don't think it was ever alive in the first place.


It had about a four hour life. 8am-12pm Thursday. Poor little fella never had a chance. Like a diseased baby bird kicked out of it's nest by momma bird. :(

1194. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


You're saying July 4th, 2008 doesn't count?



Big Bertha??
1195. beell
Without the ULL there would have been no 96L.


Levi, what you talked about in the end of your blog is very interesting...Your right, it will be interesting to see if that contributes to the total number of named storms in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Bertha off the Cape Verde Islands. It had a lot of SAL to deal with, as shown by the funny looking clouds in this image.


Quoting Grothar:


I do too, but I am sure it is for another reason. LOL Unusual to see a strong wave like that emerge so early in the season. Last one I can remember was back in 1947.

See, and you wonder why people date you with the dinosaurs...good to see yo back around Gro! =)
Looks like things are still a 'go' at the KSC...

The St. Pete Times is streaming the video live.

http://www.sptimes.com

Where were you when the Columbia launched on the first mission back in April '81?

I was in my sixth-grade class at Walter T. Bergen Middle School in Bloomingdale, NJ. They wheeled in the TV and brought three classes together to watch the launch. Hard to believe that was 30 years ago...
Heavy rainfall  in Carrollwood,Tampa. The lakes are now full !!!!!
Quoting aquak9:
Jacksonville- here
Dayshift- waiting
Nightshift- check
Donuts- gone
Coffee- check
Overcast- check
96L- iffy
Rain for Ne Fla- iffy
Launch- iffy
Lot's of "iffy" stuff on that list.... lol

I actually am pulling more for the rain than the launch.... :o)

Quoting Buhdog:
Anyone think ex96l makes a comeback? I love a good surprise once in awhile! Feeling ripped off in Cape Coral..only 1/2 of rain so far.

This radar makes it look like a closed low is coming ashore just north of Tampa (I know its not)
Link

Yeah, we didn't get near the rain I thougt we would here in Ft Myers. Rain totals in my area showed .93 through last night. Had some decent downpours early this morning but probably less that 1/2 inch
that Tropical Wave near the Cape Verde Islands looks nasty
1204. Grothar
Quoting KeysieLife:
See, and you wonder why people date you with the dinosaurs...good to see yo back around Gro! =)


Thanks. I am still away, though. I can't come on much. I miss you guys.
1205. FLdewey
I always miss the donuts.
1206. Melagoo
Whoa...Calvin up to 70 mph/997 mb. Predicted to become the seasons third hurricane...peak at 80 mph.

...CALVIN NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...
WOW, it has been pouring rain here in Tampa, but yet the skies are not too bad for Atlantis Space Shuttle!


Could be the first CV storm coming.......waters are still a little cool.....but it sure is strong!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa...Calvin up to 70 mph/997 mb. Predicted to become the seasons third hurricane...peak at 80 mph.

...CALVIN NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...



any mode runs showing this its in the E PAC be hid are TS


the best looking tropical wave so far of the 2011!!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Could be the first CV storm coming.......waters are still a little cool.....but it sure is strong!
that water temp is 83F is not cool at all
Space Shuttle is a go..........NICE....but sure wish i could have seen it here in Tampa!
1216. FLdewey
Nice clearing in Melbourne now... just saw an F-15 fly overhead with afterburners.

Someone in a Cessna is about to get a surprise. :-|

1217. geepy86
Quoting FLdewey:
Nice clearing in Melbourne now... just saw an F-15 fly overhead with afterburners.

Someone in a Cessna is about to get a surprise. :-|


Yep lot a noise over that way right now.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
that water temp is 83F is not cool at all


Sorry to disagree with you but, if these graphics are correct..its barely in the margin of sustaining anything.



wow!! new update!!
1220. rxse7en
Hi all! Back for another season. Have a safe summer.
the clock stop at -30 sac
here is a nice picture of the tropical wave!!
lift off
And there it goes. Glad it got to liftoff today.
1227. FLdewey
It was beautiful in Melbourne for 11 seconds before hitting the clouds
1228. Bayside
what a beautiful liftoff! End of an era :(
1230. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Absolutely beautiful. Sad to see the end of an era, especially one that has been so dear to me since I was very young. Godspeed, Atlantis.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
welcome to the saharan dust and the cooler ssts also....the waves coming off of africa are going to have a hard time developing for 3 reasons...
1 where they come off the coast is very important 8 degrees will the ssts are warmer but it indicates a true west motion and moves into central america...

2 the ssts are cooler then normal and the ssps are higher then normal

3 finally the saharan dust is the killer of all these waves to much dry air...

until this changes the cape verdes season will not be very active this year which indicates a very low number of hurricanes...


Why are you always so negative??