WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012

For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Lightning 2
Lightning 2
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Setting Sol
Setting Sol

Heat Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc for the great blog. Prayers are out for all affected.
Wahhh? I don't think I've ever gotten to the blog at a time when there weren't any posts yet (though that'll probably change by the time i'm done posting this). Thanks, Dr. M. It's pretty amazing to see all these heat records falling, meanwhile Alaska is bordering on all time snow records: Alaska's Largest City Eyes Snow Record

I actually had a specific question though. I was wondering how natureal disasters in Puerto Rico are handled politically by the US. Because Puerto Rico is a commonwealth, does that mean that every time they have a natural disaster it is 100% the US's responsibility to help them recover/pay for it? I only bring it up because I just found out that PR is going to be voting on statehood/remaining a commonwealth in November for the first time since 1998, and several of the sources that I've read state that their governor expects them to elect to become a state. Would that shift the recovery responsibility in the case of, say a bad hurricane, or would it largely remain the same?
Doc, Happy Saint Patrick's day. Leaving out all troublesome weather.
Thank you Dr. Jeff.. .. enjoy your weekend!
Happy St. Patrick's Day.






Quoting HurrikanEB:
..I just found out that PR is going to be voting on statehood/remaining a commonwealth in November for the first time since 1998, and several of the sources that I've read state that their governor expects them to elect to become a state. ...

How much would it cost us just to make all the new US flags? and where would we fit in the 51st star??
Thanks Dr Masters.

Oh and there is one Typo:

. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6&Deg;F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

I think that should be 6 Deg F.
Nice not to live in a boring town Patrick.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Wahhh? I don't think I've ever gotten to the blog at a time when there weren't any posts yet (though that'll probably change by the time i'm done posting this). Thanks, Dr. M. It's pretty amazing to see all these heat records falling, meanwhile Alaska is bordering on all time snow records: Alaska's Largest City Eyes Snow Record

I actually had a specific question though. I was wondering how natureal disasters in Puerto Rico are handled politically by the US. Because Puerto Rico is a commonwealth, does that mean that every time they have a natural disaster it is 100% the US's responsibility to help them recover/pay for it? I only bring it up because I just found out that PR is going to be voting on statehood/remaining a commonwealth in November for the first time since 1998, and several of the sources that I've read state that their governor expects them to elect to become a state. Would that shift the recovery responsibility in the case of, say a bad hurricane, or would it largely remain the same?


All territories of the US where disasters happen are handled by FEMA under the same guidelines as for states. They include Guam and trust territories in the Pacific islands. You can go on the website FEMA.gov for maps of their regions.
I don't know how much it would cost, but the flag makers would sure be happy.
Quoting JNCali:

How much would it cost us just to make all the new US flags? and where would we fit in the 51st star??


I was actually wondering the same thing last night. But according to wikipedia, there have been some pretty interesting flag designs over the years. And i think that some of the recent designs were chosen from national "contests." As far as the cost of printing them? who knows, but to be honest, if anything, it would probably add to the economy :P
Quoting JNCali:

How much would it cost us just to make all the new US flags? and where would we fit in the 51st star??


Dont be small minded. Businesses will see it as a great oppurtunity, and all would go well.

It would be one of the smallest states, they should bundle it with the US Virgin Islands.

It would be like another Hawaii :)

On a weather note, this warth looks to end soon, should cool a little bit, maybe 10 or so degrees.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


I was actually wondering the same thing last night. But according to wikipedia, there have been some pretty interesting flag designs over the years. And i think that some of the recent designs were chosen from national "contests." As far as the cost of printing them? who knows, but to be honest, if anything, it would probably add to the economy :P


I like this one:




So much better than a boring rectangle.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Dont be small minded. Businesses will see it as a great oppurtunity, and all would go well.

It would be one of the smallest states, they should bundle it with the US Virgin Islands.

It would be like another Hawaii :)

On a weather note, this warth looks to end soon, should cool a little bit, maybe 10 or so degrees.
sorry, forgot to hoist the sarcasm flag..
Flags are made by Private companies, we er, added 2 Stars in the last Mid Century.

Alaska Jan. 3, 1959
Hawaii Aug. 21, 1959


America is more than a Flag, it's the people that make us what we are, not the National Ensign.


If anyone has time for some reading this weekend, I just came across the UN report, 21 Issues for the 21st Century.. page 32 talks about their climate change analysis and prognosis..
Link
Well everyone have a nice Saint Paddy's day. I'm off to see if I can find a green Leprechaun. Easy on the green beer everyone or you'll be seeing pink elephants. All though tomorrow is a day of rest. No driving please if imbibing.
Morning Everyone and Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Expecting some really nasty weather here in San Diego (apparently) and in typical S. Cal fashion, they're making it sound like the end of the world. However, we have Dagmar Midcap to present it - former Atlanta weather person and she is stunning...

LET IT RAIN.
I am in Puerto Rico but I wont enter the politics camp as I am at Wunderground only to talk about Tropical Weather in the Caribbean and in general.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I am in Puerto Rico but I wont enter the politics camp as I am at Wunderground only to talk about Tropical Weather in the Caribbean and in general.


AMEN. I wish everyone else here had that attitude!

oh, and good evening all. Say your final bye bye to Lua, she is dead now. and we are back to a basin filled with nothing:(
Slow mover..
BeijingAir ‏ @BeijingAir

03-17-2012 21:00; PM2.5; 185.0; 235; Very Unhealthy (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
2h BeijingAir

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

VALID 12Z WED MAR 21 2012 - 12Z SAT MAR 24 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE E-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS TROUGHING
NEAR/OFF THE WEST COAST DOWNSTREAM OF A CENTRAL PACIFIC 500 HPA
POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NAVIGATE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

THE BIG QUESTIONS LIE WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE...WHERE THE 00Z UKMET
IS ON THE NORTH SIDE...THE 00Z CANADIAN ON THE SOUTH SIDE...THE
00Z ECMWF IS ON THE FAST SIDE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE
OF THE OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THESE ISSUES
ARE CAUSED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH THE GUIDANCE
HANDLES DIFFERENTLY THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ACT AS A KICKER TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM DEEP CYCLONE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION
SEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONCERNING DETAILS OF DEPTH/PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP CYCLONE.

UPDATED HPC PRELIM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM
A BLEND OF ABOUT 2/3 00 UTC GFS AND BACKING OFF FROM CONTINUITY TO
ONLY 1/3 00 UTC ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS SOLUTION HOLDS
PROGRESSION SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN HPC CONTINUITY AND RESULTANT FLOW
IS CLOSER ALOFT TO THE 00/06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS VERSES THE
SOMEHWAT MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF OFFERS
POORER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY COMPARED TO THE GFS...INCLUDING THE
06 UTC GFS RUN. THE ECMWF ALONG WITH ITS ENSEMBLES ALSO SEEMS TO
DRIVE TOO MUCH HEIGHT FALLS SEWD INTO THE SERN US LATE WEEK
CONSIDERING AMBIENT RIDGE STRENGTH. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ITS WARM SECTOR.

UPSTREAM...A NEAR EQUAL BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ALSO
PROVIDES A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION SHIFTED WESTWARD
FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY NEXT FRI-SAT DAYS 6/7. THAT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING HIGHER RESOLUTION AND A SEEMINGLY BETTER
FIT WITH RECENT AMPLIFIED FLOW HISTORY AND UPSTREAM
CONSIDERATIONS. THIS ALLOWS FOR GOOD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL US.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL----------------I said yesterday this could be a soaker..
Morning guys.

Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.

Two big days of Severe Weather coming up..



Morning all!

Only 75 days until the anarchy that is hurricane season on WU begins!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Reed Timmer should have some fun
ASR - http://asrltd.com/who-we-are/index.php

http://blog.asrltd.com/

http://www.asrltd.com/japan/plume.php



Hello Dr Jeff and all of my WU friends who post here!!!

Happy St Patti's Day to You All!!!

(my name is Patti so I spell it that way! :o)

Rainbow image
St Patricks Day Graphics


SE Florida has had a beautiful winter and spring; back to "normal" for us after two extremely cold winters..
and even some unusally nice rain for Feb & Mar, our "dry" months..



Parts of Tennessee declared federal disaster areas..Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all!

Only 75 days until the anarchy that is hurricane season on WU begins!

I don't miss the trolls. I assume they are still asleep under a bridge somewhere.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all!

Only 75 days until the anarchy that is hurricane season on WU begins!

Whoo! Only 75 more days until the trolls and Jason-impostors and JFV-impostors and strict banning comes back! Yay!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Whoo! Only 75 more days until the trolls and Jason-imposters and JFV-impostors and strict banning comes back! Yay!

Trolls are what gives the blog excitement though... A blog without trolls is boring!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Trolls are what gives the blog excitement though... A blog without trolls is boring!


maybe cuz trolls are a large part of the blog lol.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Trolls are what gives the blog excitement though... A blog without trolls is boring!

It caused a lot of good people to leave last year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical development in the gulf early this year in June.Something similar to Allison(01),Arlene(05),and Alberto(06).My opinion..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Trolls are what gives the blog excitement though... A blog without trolls is boring!
I would have to agree.It gives me a good laugh once in a while.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It caused a lot of good people to leave last year.


If you can't stand a blog because of the trolls then you generally don't deserve to be on it. Although it did get crazy last year.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Whoo! Only 75 more days until the trolls and Jason-impostors and JFV-impostors and strict banning comes back! Yay!

WOW!
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 17U
1:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 1:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 17.1S 141.2E or 65 km north northeast of Normanton and 220 km east southeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW over southwestern Cape York Peninsula has began moving southwestwards and is located near Karumba. The low is expected to take a more northwesterly track over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Sunday morning, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Sunday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer overnight on Sunday. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and NT/Qld border on Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rain and Abnormally High Tides for northern Cape York Peninsula and for Torres Strait Islands.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5 am EST [4:30 CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..


notice the V signature located in the eastern pacific (2012)



here it is again (2008)



it begins to form in (2010) along with the la Nina



its also here in (2011)
Quoting yqt1001:


If you can't stand a blog because of the trolls then you generally don't deserve to be on it. Although it did get crazy last year.

That's ridiculous.
Quoting yqt1001:


If you can't stand a blog because of the trolls then you generally don't deserve to be on it. Although it did get crazy last year.
When i was lurking back in 09 I though that was the cariziest time.Because we didn't have a storm until August.People went mad.2010 was also crazy.That's why it took me a while to decide wheather or not I wanted to join this place.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous.
Unprecedented!!.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
11:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 22.1S 120.3E or 150 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the inland Pilbara.

Gales are occurring in inland areas near Newman and Jigalong and Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre until early Sunday morning.

As the cyclone moves further south, gales may reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and possibly the far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields overnight and during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Quoting SPLbeater:


AMEN. I wish everyone else here had that attitude!

oh, and good evening all. Say your final bye bye to Lua, she is dead now. and we are back to a basin filled with nothing:(


What a hypocrite
Quoting DasRegulator:


What a hypocrite


Quite a bold first comment!
At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.

It's the same story in my area. Current forecasts through the end of this week would result in a mean temperature some 3 to 4+ degrees above the previous warmest March. And it's even more impressive when you consider how anomalous the previous record-holder (March 1945) is, as that month was much warmer than any other March on record.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When i was lurking back in 09 I though that was the cariziest time.Because we didn't have a storm until August.People went mad.2010 was also crazy.That's why it took me a while to decide wheather or not I wanted to join this place.


By far the most insane experience tracking hurricanes with all you guys happened on August 30th, 2008 during the 1800z advisory on Hurricane Gustav.



INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

That day was insane. A Category 5 hurricane predicted in the GOMEX.

I think we cranked out 5,000 comments in under 3 hours that day. Even scarier was when the doctor posted a blog saying 'It's time to get out of New Orleans.'

Quoting seflagamma:
SE Florida has had a beautiful winter and spring; back to "normal" for us after two extremely cold winters..
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.
The CFSv2 model is in Warm Neutral ENSO by August,September and October.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


By far the most insane experience tracking hurricanes with all you guys happened on August 30th, 2008 during the 1800z advisory on Hurricane Gustav.



INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

That day was insane. A Category 5 hurricane predicted in the GOMEX.

I think we cranked out 5,000 comments in under 3 hours that day. Even scarier was when the doctor posted a blog saying 'It's time to get out of New Orleans.'

I didn't know Wunderground was around back then.I wasn't "hip".Lol.I know alot of people were probally worried though and let's not forget the trolls now who were probally causing trouble.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.


I have great hopes for the rainy season this year in Florida. Thunderstorms this year have already been forming along the seabreeze, I suspect we'll have severe thunderstorms daily in Florida by early May.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It caused a lot of good people to leave last year.


Like me for a little bit. What a mess it was.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't know Wunderground was around back then.I wasn't "hip".Lol.I know alot of people were probally worried though and let's not forget the trolls now who were probally causing trouble.


WU, the blogs at least, have been around since April 2005.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.
Here in D.C I do think it'll be above average.I don't think we'll surpass our previous record though.
Quoting caneswatch:


Like me for a little bit. What a mess it was.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:



and some of our trolls have just made new user names to disguise themselves but i know who they are they fool no one but themselves can not change there writing style
Corny weather joke below:

Q. What does the atmospheric conditions in DC have in common with a top ranked boxer?

A. Both are May Weather!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
quote">Quoting hurricanehunter27:



Alright you fixed it lol.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Corny weather joke below:

Q. What does the atmospheric conditions in DC have in common with a top ranked boxer?

A. Both are May Weather!
Boooo LOL.J/K.
Where is this?
I like my forecast.

This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Alright you fixed it lol.



LOL just playin with you HH XD
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"
Quoting washingtonian115:
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"

BOO!!!

Lol.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and some of our trolls have just made new user names to disguise themselves but i know who they are they fool no one but themselves can not change there writing style
I noticed that. I can recognize some of them from there posts.
Quoting hydrus:
I noticed that. I can recognize some of them from there posts.


Like who?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Like who?
Like JFV for example....TEH.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"


Q: What do you call a bunch of tractors parked in front of a McDonald's on Friday night in Hillsborough County, Florida?

A: Prom.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Q: What do you call a bunch of tractors parked in front of a McDonald's on Friday night in Hillsborough County, Florida?

A: Prom.
Lol.I bet a true Floridain would understand the joke fully.
All entries on wunderground can be viewed without comments enabled.

It's not like folks come here to see the banter and BS between us.


;p


Seriously though, if I was very wealthy, and was interested in buying a car, I would definitely buy this any day over its internal combustion competition.


Its 100% electric, its fast, it looks great, its battery life is long, and it charges fast.

People need to be aware that unlike the internal combustion engine, technology improvement will allow the electric powered car to grow that much more powerful and efficient.



Now, all they need to do is start building powerful electric pickup-trucks as alternatives and I'll be really interested!


Check this out:Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like JFV for example....TEH.

^_^
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

^_^


Or the many Jason handles.
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Or the many Jason handles.

You would think people would have better things to do besides mess with people all day everyday.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.
Skypony did point this out a yesterday.With all this May/June weather happening I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.
Quoting Patrap:
All entries on wunderground can be viewed without comments enabled.

It's not like folks come here to see the banter and BS between us.


;p




You mean everyone isn't here to see me post? What a horrible realization this is... :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You would think people would have better things to do besides mess with people all day everyday.
Well he does not literally. I actually fear for him a little. His behavior makes him seem mentally unsound. Also the fact that he is one of the largest persons I'v ever seen. If he ever gets in a fight he could really hurt someone.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well he does not literally. I actually fear for him a little. His behavior makes him seem mentally unsound. Also the fact that he is one of the largest people I'v ever seen. If he ever gets in a fight he could really hurt someone.

Who are we talking about here?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.


Also,what I notice not only on CMC but on GFS is the Azores high weaker,and that is important as less upwelling warm the MDR waters.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who are we talking about here?
Jason. Watch some of his youtube videos and see what I mean.
The Tex/Mex Drought -
The announcement from researchers with WWF and Mexico’s National
Commission for Natural Protected Areas appears to confirm the fears of
some biologists, who said it was likely that scalding temperatures and
extreme droughts affecting Texas and other parts of the United States in
2011 would take a toll on the butterflies.

The migrating monarchs can survive for only so long without
nectar or water, and the leg of their journey through parched regions of
the U.S. was likely a difficult one.
“I call that a thousand miles of hell, from Oklahoma down to
Mexico,” Chip Taylor, a professor and insect ecologist at the University
of Kansas, and the director of Monarch Watch, a nonprofit outreach
organization, told OurAmazingPlanet in November.


http://www.livescience.com/19122-monarch-butterfl y-numbers-hit.html

Awaiting daily initiation..


The effects seem particularly pronounced at higher elevations, where
warmer temperatures have facilitated beetle attacks. In the last two
decades at the Mountain Research Station, mean annual temperatures were
2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were in the previous two
decades.
Warmer temperatures gave the beetle larvae more spring days to grow
to adulthood. The number of spring days above freezing temperatures
increased by 15.1 in the last two decades, Mitton and Ferrenberg report.
Also, the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow
increased by 44 percent since 1970.
The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation,
1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their
study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly.
http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/03/16/globa l-warming-pine-beetles-thriving-at-higher-elevatio ns/
Good day guys
The Casper Wyoming paper -
"This would be like our parents being born in the fall
and reaching maturity in the spring, giving birth to us in May (or)
June," said Scott Ferrenberg, an author of the study with Jeffry Mitton.
"We subsequently grow to maturity by August and have our own children
that continue along a similar cycle."
This is all but doubling the mountain pine beetle population. The
study links the accelerated growth in beetles to increases in air
temperature over the past two decades.

Read more: http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/double-tr ouble-from-colorado-pine-beetles/article_65191bf9- b5c7-5878-a1a9-78582a901e19.html#ixzz1pLS7Tcdd
Quoting nigel20:
When I look at that picture it reminds me of my back pain I have.And then I put one of those cold/warm patches on it to make it feel better.
"We followed them through the summer, and we saw something that had
never been seen before," said CU ecology and evolutionary biology
professor Jeff Mitton, describing the study conducted at CU's Mountain
Research Station, about 25 mile west of Boulder. "Adults that were newly
laid eggs two months before were going out and attacking trees."……….
The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation,
1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their
study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly.

the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow increased by 44 percent since 1970.

But
in 25 years, the beetles have expanded their range, 2,000 feet higher
in elevation and 240 miles north in latitude in Canada, Mitton said.

This
exponential increase in the beetle population might help to explain the
scope of the current beetle epidemic, which is the largest in history
and extends from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in New Mexico to the
Yukon Territory near Alaska.


http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/03/16/global-wa rming-pine-beetles-thriving-at-higher-elevations/
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awaiting daily initiation..



Might as well change the "r" in MAR to a "y" for MAY.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I look at that picture it reminds me of my back pain I have.And then I put one of those cold/warm patches on it to make it feel better.

Funny, but the warm equatorial waters that was there earlier seems to be cooling a bit
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like JFV for example....TEH.


I know that... :P. I haven't seen any Jason or JFV handles in a while though. I thought someone was accusing someone of being a troll...
HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY

Look at the weather for Deadhorse, AK at 8 AM EDT. This town always surprises me,
Temperature -50F
Feels like -81F
Winds SW 17 mph

pic of the day
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Where is this?


Ameritopia
The new SSHWS


Quoting nigel20:

Funny, but the warm equatorial waters that was there earlier seems to be cooling a bit
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I know that... :P. I haven't seen any Jason or JFV handles in a while though. I thought someone was accusing someone of being a troll...
No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Like who?
STORMTOP for one. He tried to sneak in some regular posts. Even though he masked them quite well, you could still tell it was his persona.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall. No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)
From Reed Timmer via facebook:

uh-oh

"Monday is shaping up to being a substantial tornado outbreak from western OK south through western Texas all the way to the Mexican Border. Here are the 0-1km helicity values for 7 pm CDT. The red color is extreme. Stay tuned"
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall. No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.

It's looking as if we will be having neutal conditions through out the hurricane season
Quoting hydrus:
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)


i reckon thats why i didnt get a nice welcome last august:/
Quoting hydrus:
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)

No. Grizzlies serve a useful purpose in nature.

Trolls...not so much.
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.
Quoting Birthmark:

No. Grizzlies serve a useful purpose in nature.

Trolls...not so much.
This is true...And bears are cool. trolls...not so much
Quoting nigel20:

It's looking as if we will be having neutal conditions through out the hurricane season
Another Neutral hurricane season like 011.But the weather patterns are different which I think the Gulf coast and Florida will have to watch out.


Maybe a 5% chance for the east in 8 days...I hope.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.


Wow.
Is it getting solipsistic in here? Or is it just me?
One can cook a nice Bear shoulder with a Dark Roux, potatoes and carrots...and a splash of Red Wine.

A troll, well, not so much.
Quoting Patrap:
One can cook a nice Bear shoulder with a Dark Roux, potatoes and carrots...and a splash of Red Wine.

A troll, well, not so much.

They're good for sausage...I've heard. (Trolls I mean.)
Quoting presslord:
Is it getting solipsistic in here? Or is it just me?
Ha! It reminds me a bit of this current Google classic:

ha!
Quoting Neapolitan:
From Reed Timmer via facebook:

uh-oh

"Monday is shaping up to being a substantial tornado outbreak from western OK south through western Texas all the way to the Mexican Border. Here are the 0-1km helicity values for 7 pm CDT. The red color is extreme. Stay tuned"

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
Imagine if the Midwest Temps were running 39-41 Degree's under norms?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
Agreed. Supposed to be more of a damaging wind, hail day.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
He does like to wishcast, to be sure...but then again, the guy has bagged more twisters than probably anyone ever has, so I tend to give his hypercasts more credibility than I do those from some of the others...
Monday ECMWF:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Agreed. Supposed to be more of a damaging wind, hail day.

Well, Monday has the POTENTIAL to be a substantial tornado outbreak. My point was that he needs to learn how to look at other parameters and not wishcast all the time.

He usually is in the right spot at the right time though, I'll give him that.

Quoting Neapolitan:
He does like to wishcast, to be sure...but then again, the guy has bagged more twisters than probably any ever has, so I tend to give his hypercasts more credibility than I do those from some of the others...

*cough*Henry Marguisty*cough*
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, Monday has the POTENTIAL to be a substantial tornado outbreak. My point was that he needs to learn how to look at other parameters and not wishcast all the time.

He usually is in the right spot at the right time though, I'll give him that.


*cough*Henry Marguisty*cough*
Can you post the shear profile for monday?>
Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
stop that you

:)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Can you post the shear profile for monday?>

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not 2 impressive.
Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
An artist asked the gallery owner if there had been any interest in his paintings on display at that time.

"I have good news and bad news," the owner replied. "The good news is that a gentleman enquired about your work and wondered if it would appreciate in value after your death. When I told him it would, he bought all 15 of your paintings."

"That's wonderful," the artist exclaimed. "What's the bad news?"
"The guy was your doctor..."
Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.


Press..... ROFL!!!
Skye did mention something on her blog about a system that could develope around Bahamas next week..
interesting..
Summer like thunderstorms popping up in GA again.
The thing that strikes me is that the SREF gives Monday a Significant Tornado value of 40%. It only goes up to 50%...

The CMC...lolThe GFS. Very likely. The NOGAPS. Could happen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The thing that strikes me is that the SREF gives Monday a Significant Tornado value of 40%. It only goes up to 50%...

Right over Waco TX.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.


That's just so wrong. 75 in International Falls and I shoveled snow off my solar panels this morning and am sitting by the wood stove.

Which is normal for here, this time of year. Parts of the country are so very abnormal at the moment. Makes you wonder what surprise awaits around the next corner....
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Where is this?

No trees + really green + waterfalls = could be Iceland.
..my sweat is sweating,

phew-ee

Gardening is tough work.

I need a cold Fresca, asap.
If this is what global warming brings for northern mn. I am all for it, even though right now it is 60 degrees about 90 miles southwest of I Falls. Nice to see the icebox of the nation so warm, I bet they are not complaining either.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You mean everyone isn't here to see me post? What a horrible realization this is... :(


-----> Raises hand <-----
The large-scale sinking downstream of the bowling-ball upper low coming out of the plains next week makes any kind of cyclogenesis near the Bahamas seem unlikely, but it's nice to see the models already trying to entertain us.

12z GFS 200mb Height/Wind 120 hours:

Southwest fun for this evening!


Watch how the "entertainment" turns into a Horror show, downstream in time, as it is fractal in nature, and Vice-versa, save for the "Loaded Dice".
Quoting Levi32:
The large-scale sinking downstream of the bowling-ball upper low coming out of the plains next week makes any kind of cyclogenesis near the Bahamas seem unlikely, but it's nice to see the models already trying to entertain us.

12z GFS 200mb Height/Wind 120 hours:

at one point the models showed the cutoff driving se ward towards sw sub tropical atlantic it is going to be interesting to see if in fact it can shove off the ridge
Quoting Levi32:
The large-scale sinking downstream of the bowling-ball upper low coming out of the plains next week makes any kind of cyclogenesis near the Bahamas seem unlikely, but it's nice to see the models already trying to entertain us.

12z GFS 200mb Height/Wind 120 hours:


Well, with record heat and historic tornado outbreaks already this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see something form out in the Atlantic.

Trade winds and abundant SAL are really cooling the Eastern Atlantic down.



My weather prediction.... Most of us know by now that this upper low is a slow mover. This will probably mean multiple severe weather outbreaks from the same system. Flooding will occur, but it will not be widespread(yet). 8 to 10 days from now, this low will exit the U.S., but It will have seemed longer than that. Then, we get a decent break from any severe weather. After our reprieve, things become very active. The Bermuda High will build back in when the upper low moves N.E. into the Atlantic. It does not show on this GFS run, but will soon enough.Then, the inevitable happens, moisture moving from the Eastern Pacific moves E-NE over the already steamy Gulf of Mexico, so the Bermuda High can do its thing and recharge the atmosphere with abundant moisture. Now depending on how strong this next system is( and my prediction is very strong ) it will not only cause multiple severe weather events, but flooding will become a major concern for the mid west and parts of the Mississippi Valley. As it is with most of the systems we track, the exact location and forward movement of this system will dictate the extent of the rainfall that affects a certain area. The other important factor is the amount of moisture that will be available when this low moves into the central U.S. The Bermuda High should be very prominent, and will have a big influence on the forward movement and direction. The weaker the system, the slower it will move, and more flooding rains, the stronger the system, more in the way of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, but less in the way of flooding.
Quoting StormGoddess:

No trees + really green + waterfalls = could be Iceland.
Ireland
Hey Levi!

I think this season will be very focused in the West - thanks to the SST's being so cool in the Eastern Atlantic, all the heat and energy has to be built up somewhere and unlike the last two hurricane seasons where the SST's where warm in the East and the West, I think it will be all stuck in the Western Atlantic and the GOMEX, causing significant systems this year to develop closer to home. You agree?
Towering cumulus clouds outside right now, it really is summer!

Looks like NC/SC will be under the gun from these summer-like storms today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey Levi!

I think this season will be very focused in the West - thanks to the SST's being so cool in the Eastern Atlantic, all the heat and energy has to be built up somewhere and unlike the last two hurricane seasons where the SST's where warm in the East and the West, I think it will be all stuck in the Western Atlantic and the GOMEX, causing significant systems this year to develop closer to home. You agree?

Possibly, though SST's can warm quite rapidly if given the chance
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey Levi!

I think this season will be very focused in the West - thanks to the SST's being so cool in the Eastern Atlantic, all the heat and energy has to be built up somewhere and unlike the last two hurricane seasons where the SST's where warm in the East and the West, I think it will be all stuck in the Western Atlantic and the GOMEX, causing significant systems this year to develop closer to home. You agree?


Hey Teddy :)

Well all El Nino seasons carry the enhanced risk of in-close developments as opposed to long-trackers from the deep tropics. However, only GOM systems typically hit the U.S. often. The rest develop too far north and recurve too quickly to hit the eastern seaboard, in general. I think you're right that the central and eastern tropical Atlantic will be largely shut down this year if the El Nino does come on.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ireland
I was thinkin Ireland or Scotland too.
prolong period of unsettleness
with abunant rainfall/severe early in the period
as cold core cutoff stalls nations midwest
then nudges ne up over lower lakes
to be absorbed into the zonal flow above it
Quoting nigel20:

Possibly, though SST's can warm quite rapidly if given the chance


That's true, however given that the trade winds and African drought don't seem to be letting up + with the warm neutral upcoming, I think that it will be the WATL's year to shine.
155.

Thanks for the reply!

I think that an El Nino isn't very likely, with a Cold PDO and the ENSO forecasts giving that possibility kind of the cold shoulder. However, I do think we're going to get very close to one or the fact if we do get one, the atmosphere will lag (as the atmosphere will not have adjusted yet thanks to the PDO) and the effects won't be as drastic on our hurricane season as 2006 and 2009's where, which leads me to the idea that we will see around 13 named this year.
Also, the Australian's ENSO wrap-up seems to believe that we won't be seeing a El Nino this year.
Quoting Patrap:
Watch how the "entertainment" turns into a Horror show, downstream in time, as it is fractal in nature, and Vice-versa, save for the "Loaded Dice".
Everything is fractal. :) A fractal flame.
This is likely to be a very quiet season overall though, at least compared to the last two. El Ninos following multi-year La Ninas are the perfect setup to reduce storm numbers. 9-11 named storms seems like a good bet right now if the ENSO models are correct.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's true, however given that the trade winds and African drought don't seem to be letting up + with the warm neutral upcoming, I think that it will be the WATL's year to shine.

Point taken
Quoting CybrTeddy:
155.

Thanks for the reply!

I think that an El Nino isn't very likely, with a Cold PDO and the ENSO forecasts giving that possibility kind of the cold shoulder. However, I do think we're going to get very close to one or the fact if we do get one, the atmosphere will lag (as the atmosphere will not have adjusted yet thanks to the PDO) and the effects won't be as drastic on our hurricane season as 2006 and 2009's where, which leads me to the idea that we will see around 13 named this year.
Also, the Australian's ENSO wrap-up seems to believe that we won't be seeing a El Nino this year.


Well the SOI led the SSTs during the tail-end of the winter, so I'm not sure you can make the argument for an appreciable atmospheric lag this year. Also, multi-year La Ninas within cold PDO periods are almost always followed by a couple years of at least weak El Nino before going cold again. Just look at the 1950s, the 1970s, and the 1998-2000 La Nina. Of course, this La Nina hasn't gone on as long yet as any of those three, so it's still possible that we could remain colder than forecast in the Pacific and maintain neutral/La Nina for one more year, but we shall see.

What will be more interesting is if we do get the El Nino, whether the negative PDO signature (cold water along west coast of North America) will remain strong in the Pacific, because that can cause an interesting dance to happen between the east Pacific and the west Atlantic during the summer.
The Strange Attractor. The Lorenz Attractor. I remember this one from way back.
Quoting nymore:
If this is what global warming brings for northern mn. I am all for it, even though right now it is 60 degrees about 90 miles southwest of I Falls. Nice to see the icebox of the nation so warm, I bet they are not complaining either.
According to the old legend, a frog placed in a pot of lukewarm water and set atop a stove won't complain, either; he'll just sit there, dumb and green and comfortable as can be while the water gets warmer and warmer, and by the time he realizes it's getting a little too warm, it's too late... ;-)
Fractal will affect future forecasts...Fractal Weather forecast


2007-05-30


The project of the Fractal Weather forecast shall open a new chapter in the field of meteorology by building a bridge between forgotten ideas of meteorology and todays possibilities of computer technology. Our intention is to build up a precise forecast of weather events several months in advance.

We try to approach the challenge of a long-term forecast from the other side: Instead of driving ourselves into chaos (Butterfly-Effect), we use well defined nodal points and geometries as a framework. Not broadening iterations, but iterations into detail between well known supporting points.
The goal is to build up an internet based service, offering long-term weather forecasts.

Forecasts Weather maps, standard meteorological values (temperature, pressure, dewpoint, wind, clouds, precipitation etc.).
Extreme weather events (thunderstorms, hail, snow, storms etc.)
Quality Daily and hourly forecasts, up to months and years in advance.
Target groups aviation, shipping, agriculture, etc.
Realization The project is divided into several steps:

basic research
development of algorithms and methods for computer calculation
start of weather services


Financing The entire project is self-financed.
Time Schedule There is no fixed time schedule. The project has been started in 1998 and shows good progress.
Fundamentals The Fractal Weather forecast is based on laws of self-similarity and the recursive structuring of the universe. The general principle is based on Astro-Meteorology, which is in its easiest application comparable to the forecasting of the tides.

What is Geometry of Fractals?
self-similarity and geometry of fractals in weather forecast
Fractal Weather Forecast - how it works
Books and Links


We document our progress in the Fractal Edition of our Astrological software Cenon Astro. The images show hierarchic Interval Charts of local resonances with an interval of a few minutes. One is a heavy hail, the other a Tornado.
A click to an image opens a full sized image.

Online since 1990
Quoting Neapolitan:
According to the old legend, a frog placed in a pot of lukewarm water and set atop a stove won't complain, either; he'll just sit there, dumb and green and comfortable as can be while the water gets warmer and warmer, and by the time he realizes it's getting a little too warm, it's too late... ;-)
To bad for you the legend is false. Maybe some research would be in order before bringing false facts (lies) to the forum
I went with 12-7-4 for this upcoming hurricane season.

Too high?
Quoting nymore:
If this is what global warming brings for northern mn. I am all for it, even though right now it is 60 degrees about 90 miles southwest of I Falls. Nice to see the icebox of the nation so warm, I bet they are not complaining either.


Well, yes, my house is burning down.

But the upside is that my feet aren't cold any longer....
Quoting Patrap:
..my sweat is sweating,

phew-ee

Gardening is tough work.

I need a cold Fresca, asap.


Bought some garlic societies and replanted around the oak trees, sweating like summer
48 hour forecast..
Quoting BobWallace:


Well, yes, my house is burning down.

But the upside is that my feet aren't cold any longer....
thank you for the WEATHER report. Go ask the people in Deadhorse AK how they feel about the abnormal warmth they are experiencing.
Quoting nymore:
To bad for you the legend is false


The premise is correct, even if it is a false legend.
well it is also a bit unusual to see levi so early in the season talking about the tropics lol but levi how do you see the season shaping up i have noticed that signs of el nino occurring now quickly changed in about 2 weeks into march so is this another neutral season in your opinion?
Quoting nymore:
thank you for the WEATHER report. Go ask the people in Deadhorse AK how they feel about the abnormal warmth they are experiencing.


We have established how the horse died. We just have not yet discovered if it was a one horse town. ;-)
U shaped jet stream coming into the plains, gonna be hell of a weather event

Gulf moisture is beyond plenty and sky high rain totals could be in the making
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We have established how the horse died. We just have not yet discovered if it was a one horse town. ;-)
I am guessing as cold as it has been, they shot the horse for meat.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gulf moisture is beyond plenty and sky high rain totals could be in the making


Possibly. Right now we just have summer t'storms dumping rain, imagine if we got a front.
Quoting nymore:
I am guessing as cold as it has been, they shot the horse for meat.


Nah. The horse froze to death! They did not need to shoot it. ... Have you ever heard of a 3 dog night?
TX radar gonna be lighting up like a Christmas tree Tuesday, whole state from Oklahoma to Mexico should have a squall line and rake the state from west to east
Quoting RitaEvac:
TX radar gonna be lighting up like a Christmas tree Tuesday, whole state from Oklahoma to Mexico should have a squall line and rake the state from west to east

Monday?

Quoting RitaEvac:
U shaped jet stream coming into the plains, gonna be hell of a weather event

And the next one too..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Monday?



Depends how fast this thing moves, Monday or Tuesday, or both days
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nah. The horse froze to death! They did not need to shoot it. ... Have you ever heard of a 3 dog night?
Where I live there are times where I could have used more than 3 dogs
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ireland


Actually it could be Skogafoss in Iceland.
Link
Quoting nymore:
Where I live there are times where I could have used more than 3 dogs


LOL! I hear ya, buddy. That is why I live on the Texas Gulf Coast! ;-)
Quoting StormGoddess:


Actually it could be Skogafoss in Iceland.
Link


Correction I found the actual picture: It is Skogafoss in Iceland. The picture is by Anna Andres.
Link
never mind i was trying to post the pollen count map but it just dissappears when i post it.

Anybody know why?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I went with 12-7-4 for this upcoming hurricane season.

Too high?

I don't think so... I still don't think we'll see El Nino. Probably a warm neutral conducive for 11-12 storms, maybe more if the environment in the Gulf/ Caribbean is favorable for some home grown storms.
Well Rookie I'm off the local gin joint or do drop inn to lather up before my beloved North Dakota Fighting Sioux play the Denver Pioneers.

All I want to hear all night is: Here is your UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA FIGHTING SIOUX SCORRRRRRRRIIIIIIINNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Depends how fast this thing moves, Monday or Tuesday, or both days

Yeah.

Looks like extreme Eastern Texas will be under the gun Tuesday.



Mississippi and Tennessee on Wednesday.



Alabama, Georgia, and east Tennessee on Thursday.



and on and on...





HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MARCH 19-21.
HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE, MARCH 22.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MARCH 19.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MARCH 19.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, MARCH 19.
HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
HIGH WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND OFFSHORE AREAS, MARCH 21-22.
FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS, MARCH 19-20.
FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IDAHO, MARCH 19-20.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, MARCH 19-23.
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, UTAH, EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND HAWAII.


Link
Quoting StormGoddess:


Actually it could be Skogafoss in Iceland.
Link
Absolutely...It shouldnt be called Iceland, it should be called Hillygreenland..
I'm in Chicago and I absolutely hate this early summer-like weather! I'm also deeply concerned about it, I'm an old-schooler who grew up during the great cold years of the 1960's, and I wonder what happened to the cold temperatures and snow. Adding to my mix of emotions, frustration because the local weather forecasters/reporters are constantly injecting positive spin, "It's going to be another beautiful day today". When it's 30 degrees above the average temperature for more than a week? I'm wondering just how hot it has to be before they realize that maybe it's not so great. And I also wonder why they don't move to a warmer place if they so hate hot weather that they'd like Chicago to be 70 degrees year 'round. I'm already seeing swarms of insects and my allergic friends are already sneezing and itching. I fear that this summer will be as brutal as - or worse than - last summer.
I also want to add that it was so warm here in Chicago this past winter that I ran the AC (chilled water pipe system) in my condo unit nearly every single day. High rise condos tend to run warm, prior years I would rarely need to turn on the heat but I wouldn't use the AC. This past winter was very different.
This link is nothing short of awesome. Check out this model run of the next system..Link...Here,s another..Link This is great too...Link
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
well it is also a bit unusual to see levi so early in the season talking about the tropics lol but levi how do you see the season shaping up i have noticed that signs of el nino occurring now quickly changed in about 2 weeks into march so is this another neutral season in your opinion?


It's never too early to talk about the tropics :)

The trend is still towards El Nino by all signs, though our skill at predicting when the trend will end is still low. Last year the models thought an El Nino was coming and it didn't show, but this year a few more things are aligned in its favor. I think a weak El Nino season is most likely at this point, but then again March is the month during which ENSO predictions have the greatest errors, so you never know. Either way, the Atlantic hurricane season will be much less active than 2010 and 2011.
Quoting Levi32:


It's never too early to talk about the tropics :)

The trend is still towards El Nino by all signs, though our skill at predicting when the trend will end is still low. Last year the models thought an El Nino was coming and it didn't show, but this year a few more things are aligned in its favor. I think a weak El Nino season is most likely at this point, but then again March is the month during which ENSO predictions have the greatest errors, so you never know. Either way, the Atlantic hurricane season will be much less active than 2010 and 2011.

Haha, what if we end up with 22 named storms? =P
Quoting StormGoddess:


Correction I found the actual picture: It is Skogafoss in Iceland. The picture is by Anna Andres.
Link

Liquid Ice!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
never mind i was trying to post the pollen count map but it just dissappears when i post it.

Anybody know why?

Where did you get it from?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Depends how fast this thing moves, Monday or Tuesday, or both days

Severe weather potential begins Sunday aftn/eve off the dryline, long dryline from Neb to SW TX, and as you say, pending arrival of trough. Trough preceded maybe by some elevated, low severe threat storms off a subtropical short wave.
Click image for complete day 2 outlook


This afternoon's Day 2 is the first time SPC used the TOR-word related to this system.
R/T the dryline storms...
TORNADOES AND HAIL...SOME
VERY LARGE...WILL BE ATTENDANT TO THE INITIAL...MORE DISCRETE...
STORMS. THESE THREATS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES AFTER DARK INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE
MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK.
The dry line shows up just a little here...he he...Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Haha, what if we end up with 22 named storms? =P
And 10 hit land..;0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah.

Looks like extreme Eastern Texas will be under the gun Tuesday.



Mississippi and Tennessee on Wednesday.



Alabama, Georgia, and east Tennessee on Thursday.



and on and on...



Arkansas also likely will get heavy rainfall. And storms.

This thing has been progged to cut off and hang out for a while over OK. How and where storms pop, if they do, will have a bearing on Monday and Tues. Been a pretty strong cap here for 3-4 days. Of course, this system's powerful enough to blow it off. Also, GFS and ECMWF have had their differences but both seem to cut it off now and take NE.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where did you get it from?



TWC
hydrus, that last one (link in post #205) is making me cringe! The heat is bad enough, now high humidity too? What month is it? Did I fall asleep and we're in August now?
Quoting hydrus:
The Strange Attractor. The Lorenz Attractor. I remember this one from way back.



Looks like graphs of functions we plot in Calculus 3 :)

LOL
Quoting hydrus:
The dry line shows up just a little here...he he...Link
Surface analysis showing location of dry line.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



TWC

I think they've made it to where we can't post images from sites like TWC/AccuWeather. Try uploading it somewhere then posting it here.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Looks like graphs of functions we plot in Calculus 3 :)

LOL


You don't plot nonlinear ordinary differential equations in Calc III lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Q: What do you call a bunch of tractors parked in front of a McDonald's on Friday night in Hillsborough County, Florida?

A: Prom.


HAHA!
Quoting chicagoloop:
hydrus, that last one (link in post #205) is making me cringe! The heat is bad enough, now high humidity too? What month is it? Did I fall asleep and we're in August now?
It does have the summer appearance to it.
Quoting caneswatch:


HAHA!

I don't get it.

But I'm not a Floridian..
That cell south of Asheboro NC doesnt look too friendly...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



TWC


that figures. TWC suk IMO
Quoting caneswatch:


HAHA!


maybe you can explain it to me....please?
In Ga it is over 3000, extremely high is 500.

I think the scale is messed up because when pine pollen comes out and it doesnt rain for a week, it can approach 20,000(okay it did once, but it does get near 10,000 every once in a while.).
pollen.com map for today
wow.. looks like pollen is very subjective!
Hey Levi,good to see you back!

My question to you is if this 2012 season will be dominated by homegrown systems due to the fact that the MDR has below normal sst's due to the positive NAO?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Severe weather potential begins Sunday aftn/eve off the dryline, long dryline from Neb to SW TX, and as you say, pending arrival of trough. Trough preceded maybe by some elevated, low severe threat storms off a subtropical short wave.
Click image for complete day 2 outlook


This afternoon's Day 2 is the first time SPC used the TOR-word related to this system.
R/T the dryline storms...
TORNADOES AND HAIL...SOME
VERY LARGE...WILL BE ATTENDANT TO THE INITIAL...MORE DISCRETE...
STORMS. THESE THREATS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES AFTER DARK INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE
MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK.
in the not too distant future we will have a new level of severe to go with the three current levels

slight risk
mod risk
high risk
extreme risk
Quoting Patrap:
Henryville High School Releases Terrifying Tornado Footage From School Security Cameras (VIDEO)
My mouth fell open.. incredible video (after the ad) showing the intensity of tornado.. here's another viewLink
The Henryville Tornado was rated a EF-4
Quoting Levi32:


You don't plot nonlinear ordinary differential equations in Calc III lol.


Well not technically yes, but it reminds me of some graphs in Calc 3 that I have done :)

I haven't taken differential equations yet, I occasionally work with them in Calculus though. I will likely take it next semester.
Quoting nymore:
thank you for the WEATHER report. Go ask the people in Deadhorse AK how they feel about the abnormal warmth they are experiencing.


You're an interesting guy nymore. You say you're an experienced concrete contractor and get your feathers a bit ruffled when someone says something about your field that doesn't come up to your standards.

But at the same time you dismiss the most experienced people who have spent their careers learning about the climate.

I don't quite understand how someone can value knowledge and experience in one field and dismiss it in another....
I figured there was a rainbow in it so it is somewhat weather related.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hey Levi,good to see you back!

My question to you is if this 2012 season will be dominated by homegrown systems due to the fact that the MDR has below normal sst's due to the positive NAO?


Hey good to see you.

Yes the pattern is typical of an El Nino season. Development threats should be closer to home but will have less time over water to strengthen in general. The question is how active our part of the basin will be. Some El Nino seasons are complete busts, while others have a decent amount of activity. This season doesn't look like a total shutdown, but it should be a good deal less active than the last couple of years.



great study song
Quoting Levi32:


Hey good to see you.

Yes the pattern is typical of an El Nino season. Development threats should be closer to home but will have less time over water to strengthen in general. The question is how active our part of the basin will be. Some El Nino seasons are complete busts, while others have a decent amount of activity. This season doesn't look like a total shutdown, but it should be a good deal less active than the last couple of years.

Wasn't 2004 a weak el nino year?
--I know I made mention of this earlier, but it's just amazing:

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 55 SET IN 1968. THIS
ALSO BREAKS THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD WHICH WAS 73 DEGREES SET IN
1963.

As I said earlier, International Falls beat its average high by 43 degrees, the previous record high for the date by 22 degrees, and the all-time March high by four degrees.

--Chicago reached 81 today, the fourth day in a row there over 80. Prior to 2012, there had only been 10 days in March with the temperature in Chicago in the 80s (back to 1872). The earliest three consecutive 80-degree days has happened previously was April 14-16.

There are hundreds of other stories like these: many all-time monthly highs; daily records being smashed by 10, 15, or even 20 degrees; and so on, and so forth...
Good evening guys
I couldn't go today to the exhibition of the C-130 Hurricane Hunter plane in San Juan,but the information is that over 30,000 people lined up to see the plane.Read the translation to english from a local newspaper site.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Haha, what if we end up with 22 named storms? =P

Very unlikely, but what if?
Land can really do a number on tropical systems.

Lua:
Quoting Patrap:
Henryville High School Releases Terrifying Tornado Footage From School Security Cameras (VIDEO)
Quoting JNCali:
My mouth fell open.. incredible video (after the ad) showing the intensity of tornado.. here's another viewLink

Learned something about this from a couple speakers at the National Severe Weather Workshop Mar 1-2. One tornado vid shown depicted a school hallway turned wind tunnel - debris flying, lockers torn off walls. Halls are sometimes designated shelter areas. Many of them have windows on one end, a factor that helps create these wind tunnels during a tornado. You can see the effect somewhat in the vid Patrap posted. The suggestion was made that emergency management and (really!) the citizenry would be wise to get involved when their communities are building a new school or remodeling an old one and tell planners to keep the windows away from the ends of hallways. One school I've seen in Oklahoma built a shelter under the gymnasium.

You hope you don't need a tornado shelter, but oh, the peace of mind a tornado shelter brings.

(edited for clarity)
Good Evening. TC Lua in Austrailia finally winding down nicely over land after landfall earlier as a Cat 4.

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Land can really do a number on tropical systems.

Lua:


Ya think?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wasn't 2004 a weak el nino year?

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
Quoting JNCali:
pollen.com map for today
I started allergy shots about six months ago; the kind you do yourself at home, subcutaneous, three times a week x 2 shots = six shots per week. They're painless, and I think it's helping me this spring.

My sinuses got so bad last year that I ended up on prednisone, and that's when I said ... "enough;" I have had it with this, and I don't care what it costs to get some relief. Nothing helped me much, my entire life, except Seldane, and they pulled that from the market.

It's not cheap, but if it affects your productivity the way it did me, it should pay off in the long run. I also think the price has come down a bit on these you do at home.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in the not too distant future we will have a new level of severe to go with the three current levels

slight risk
mod risk
high risk
extreme risk


Something official or something you can see coming, I wonder. To me a PDS watch is an extreme risk.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I started allergy shots about six months ago; the kind you do yourself at home, subcutaneous, three times a week x 2 shots = six shots per week. They're painless, and I think it's helping me this spring.

My sinuses got so bad last year that I ended up on prednisone, and that's when I said ... "enough;" I have had it with this, and I don't care what it costs to get some relief. Nothing helped me much, my entire life, except Seldane, and they pulled that from the market.

It's not cheap, but if it affects your productivity the way it did me, it should pay off in the long run. I also think the price has come down a bit on these you do at home.


i need something, when i was younger, every spring i used to rub my eyes so much to try to stop the itching that i would cut my eyelids. Then i was unable to rub my eyes so i would spend a lot of time bent with my head in a sink full of water, which would temporarily wash my eyes out and provide relief.

So i reaaallly hate pollen.
231. Bob Wallace
You might be able to find nymore at the gin joint.
:)
Atlanta has had 4 consecutive 80+ degree days, two more gets would tie the record, the forecast has us getting 3 more.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i need something, when i was younger, every spring i used to rub my eyes so much to try to stop the itching that i would cut my eyelids. Then i was unable to rub my eyes so i would spend a lot of time bent with my head in a sink full of water, which would temporarily wash my eyes out and provide relief.

So i reaaallly hate pollen.


I feel for all affected by pollen. Only time I was really affected by it was when it was over 10k for a few days. So I usually try to stay inside alot to avoid getting irritated by pollen.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta has had 4 consecutive 80+ degree days, two more gets would tie the record, the forecast has us getting 3 more.

That's simply unbelievable
March 17, 2012 SST anomaly
What Was Mysterious Dark Circle Near Sun?

© 2012 by Linda Moulton Howe
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1957&catego ry=Science


“As part of coronal mass ejections (CME) from quiet
Sun regions (not from magnetically active regions with sunspots in them),
we believe there often is a big sausage-shaped structure floating above the solar
surface, underneath which a curtain of cool, dense material exists.”

- Karel Schrijver, Ph.D., Principal Investigator, AIA Instrument,
NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory


.....
Quoting Levi32:


Hey good to see you.

Yes the pattern is typical of an El Nino season. Development threats should be closer to home but will have less time over water to strengthen in general. The question is how active our part of the basin will be. Some El Nino seasons are complete busts, while others have a decent amount of activity. This season doesn't look like a total shutdown, but it should be a good deal less active than the last couple of years.


Haven't really taken a real good look at it but the majority of the climate models show neutral during the peak. The 30 day SOI is back up to a solid 5 now with the daily coming in at 13.
Moisture flare up in SA
WV CONUS...

Quoting hurricane23:


Haven't really taken a real good look at it but the majority of the climate models show neutral during the peak. The 30 day SOI is back up to a solid 5 now with the daily coming in at 13.


Here is that 30 day SOI index going up to +5.9 as of tonight.

Quoting sunlinepr:
Moisture flare up in SA

That's quite a bit of moisture
Fresno California....

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Absolutely...It shouldnt be called Iceland, it should be called Hillygreenland..

or HillyBillyland
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 16.9S 140.8E or 65 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.5S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.5S 140.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.6S 139.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.8S 139.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.25 degree wrap on log10 spiral and an added 0.5 for white band, giving DT of 2.0. MET and PT both suggest 1.5. FT based on DT as it is clear.

Mornington Island radar suggests that the low level center is now off the coast and that the low has adopted a northwesterly track. SSMI-S 37 GHz microwave image at 2231UTC also suggests that the low level center is now off the coast. The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction today as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia. The low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone on Monday morning considering the favorable environment for development that the low exists in.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 120.3E or 220 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 16 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua has moved southwards and steadily weekened since then. The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon Sunday.

Gales are occurring in the northeast Gascoyne and adjacent far western Interior and expected to ease during the morning. Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday and are expected to persist until evening. Refer Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for more information.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western Interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna and all adjacent communities, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the southeast Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



TWC

no wonder it doesn't work. :o)
Quoting Articuno:

or HillyBillyland
If they have hillbillies in Iceland, then they are probably everywhere..:)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wasn't 2004 a weak el nino year?
The tail end of one...I think..:o
Alrighty then..



Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 172326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 30N. 5-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND OCALA MOVING SE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER
THE GULF FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ON SHORE SURFACE
FLOW TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
Quoting hydrus:
The tail end of one...I think..:o

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
Quoting nigel20:

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
I was not entirely sure about what type of El-Nino that was occurring in 04, but most Mets were saying that the situation was nearing neutral by the time the peak of hurricane season came around. I do know that I and a lot of other people will never forget the 2004 Hurricane Season for the rest of there lives.
Quoting hydrus:
I was not entirely sure about what type of El-Nino that was occurring in 04, but most Mets were saying that the situation was nearing neutral by the time the peak of hurricane season came around. I do know that I and a lot of other people will never forget the 2004 Hurricane Season for the rest of there lives.

I will never forget the 2004 hurricane season, that's when I had my first close encounter with an hurricane (Ivan)
The 2004 El Nino was weak but strengthening as the hurricane season progressed. Here are the ONI numbers from January to December:

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

However, yes, the warming was somewhat weighted to the central Pacific with less warming in the eastern Pacific.

Average SST Anomaly for August-October 2004:

Quoting Levi32:
The 2004 El Nino was weak but strengthening as the hurricane season progressed. Here are the ONI numbers from January to December:

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

However, yes, the warming was somewhat weighted to the central Pacific with less warming in the eastern Pacific.

Average SST Anomaly for August-October 2004:


Thanks much
Quoting Patrap:
..My God, it's full of Star's..

No.

It.

Isn't!

So stop saying that. :)
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh

uh-oh

Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh \

uh-oh

lol,
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh \

uh-oh


The warmth is here to stay it would seem
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??
I was searching through news about the Dexter tornado and found this and it was pretty interesting. img src="">
Quoting SPLbeater:
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??


what supercells from today?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Moisture flare up in SA

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh

uh-oh

La Nina still lingers, so of course they aren't.
It officially became El-nino 9/10/04 and was considered neutral before that date. Didnt last long The 97 Nino was rather intense. Map of Atlantic major hurricanes during post-"Modoki" seasons, including 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003 and 2005.
Quoting pottery:

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.


The ITCZ looks dry right now so the source for any rain may come from SA for now. So far in PR,it has been normal the rainfall on this month with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and some fast showers moving thru north and eastern PR at nights.
Quoting pottery:

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.
How can something as wise as a Calabash Tree be confused. We talked about this before. Nothing on Earth manages its affairs as well as the mighty Calabash....If you think it needs a lift, just pour some some red on it. Problem solved..:)
A lot can change in 3 months, but right now, there's just not a lot of heat to be taken out of the Atlantic when it comes to anomalies. The effects of our multi-year La Nina can easily be seen on a global level. The majority of our ocean basins are below normal SST-wise. Interesting how a lot of our continents are cooking, though.

Quoting KoritheMan:
La Nina still lingers, so of course they aren't.
The longer it lingers, the better chances for neutral conditions during the peak of the season I believe..No bueno.
Is it just me or has there been a huge increase in earthquakes in Alaska.Link
Most are small but still I don't think I'v ever seen this volume of them.
Quoting hydrus:
How can something as wise as a Calabash Tree be confused. We talked about this before. Nothing on Earth manages its affairs as well as the mighty Calabash....If you think it needs a lift, just pour some some red on it. Problem solved..:)

I've been doing that....
But in a rather indirect way.
I drink the Red first, you see?

heheheheh
Quoting hydrus:
The longer it lingers, the better chances for neutral conditions during the peak of the season I believe..No bueno.

Good point.
Latest models are suggesting a more favorable environment for supercells capable of producing tornadoes.

Tomorrow night at 00Z (7 pm CDT):



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what supercells from today?


ok maybe not supercells, but they had weak rotation on SRM data and where 1 county west of me. no warning went out, which is logical since the weak rotation on SRm didnt last but for maybe 30 mins.

got the duplicate fixed tho:D
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The ITCZ looks dry right now so the source for any rain may come from SA for now. So far in PR,it has been normal the rainfall on this month with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and some fast showers moving thru north and eastern PR at nights.

Yeah. Someone posted the other day that the Trop. Atl. was forecast to be pretty dry in Jun-Jul-Aug.
I don't much care for forecasts that far out, but we shall see...
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. Someone posted the other day that the Trop. Atl. was forecast to be pretty dry in Jun-Jul-Aug.
I don't much care for forecasts that far out, but we shall see...


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.I will post it again.

Quoting pottery:

I've been doing that....
But in a rather indirect way.
I drink the Red first, you see?

heheheheh
Probably for the best. I realized a drunk Calabash Tree could be a rather disturbing sight.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.

LOL, I didn't realise it was you!
What exactly is that forecast based on, do you know?
Quoting SPLbeater:
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??

There were no supercells today...?

EDIT: Nevermind, saw your latest post.
Quoting hydrus:
Probably for the best. I realized a drunk Calabash Tree could be a rather disturbing sight.

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.
Quoting pottery:

LOL, I didn't realise it was you!
What exactly is that forecast based on, do you know?


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is it just me or has there been a huge increase in earthquakes in Alaska.Link
Most are small but still I don't think I'v ever seen this volume of them.
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.I will post it again.


Thanks.
That covers Jul-Aug-Sep.
Looks pretty dread.
I hope that forecast is Bunk!
Quoting pottery:

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.


Reminds me of about a year ago, where this dude was giving away pears. We took him up on his offer, with the caveat that we had to pick them. I was standing on a ladder under the tree, and one of them fell directly on my head. It hurt. Bad.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


Thanks again.
As I say, Pretty Dread!
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.
Quoting pottery:

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.
I poured some red on this one and look what happened..
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.

That's what she sai--
Quoting KoritheMan:


Reminds me of about a year ago, where this dude was giving away pears. We took him up on his offer, with the caveat that we had to pick them. I was standing on a ladder under the tree, and one of them fell directly on my head. It hurt. Bad.

Lucky that you managed to stay on the ladder....

"Man killed by falling Pear" would have made a great headline though...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were no supercells today...?

EDIT: Nevermind, saw your latest post.


u shoulda hear my gandfather today!! talk about stubborn as a MULE!!
------------------------------------------------- --
Me: This system just east of Asheboro has some weak rotation, look at the SRM and radar.*points*. Tornadoes are VERY unlikely, but something i might watch for fun.

Him: if a tornado develops, it will head SW to NE.

Me: a tornado will move whichever direction the storm is moving.

Him: if a tornado develops, it always goes NE. i have never seen any go any other way.

Me: you know, once there was some supercells out west that developed and went southwest. they produces tornadoes and the TORNADOES moved southwest, with the storm.

Him: yeah the storm can go one way but the tornado will move SW to NE

Me: *shakes head* NO, a tornado aint gonna leave the storm into open air!! it will stay inderneath the rotation present with the storm.

* He laughs and walks away*

------------------------------------------------- ----

and im like, REALLY!? listen to the guy who studies this stuff!!!geez!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.

I assure you, they leave you feeling VERY defensless for a LONG time.
Terra Firma is not supposed to move around under our feet.
I don't like them at all at all.
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.
That covers Jul-Aug-Sep.
Looks pretty dread.
I hope that forecast is Bunk!


Yep. If that pans out,then closer to land or the so called homegrowns will be the order of this 2012 season. Apart from that,the MDR is below average right now on the sst's and that may also be a contributing factor to have homegrowns.
Quoting hydrus:
I poured some red on this one and look what happened..

You should of been locked up for that, LOL!
Poor tree.

Bad Red, huh?
Also looks like Mt. Iliamna is getting active for the first time in historical records. Large earthquake swarms in the exact area.
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
The EURO forecast of 2 meter temps for July, August, and September seem to hint at El Nino. These aren't sea surface temps, but usually this is a good indicator for what's going on in the water.

Quoting nigel20:

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake
Was in a 4.3 here in GA. I think it was back in 2003. The people who lived next door thought there house was falling of the hill into the river lol.
Quoting nigel20:

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake

Last decent one we had was 6.2.
My wife was driving on the highway and thought that the steering had gone bananas.
Couldn't keep the car in a straight line....

At home we lost some stuff from shelves, and about half the water from the fish tank.
A Tsunami!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Good evening to you too Keep.....sheeesh...:)
Quoting pottery:

You should of been locked up for that, LOL!
Poor tree.

Bad Red, huh?
Good red.. Didnt you notice how big the tree opened his maw for seconds.?
And here is the actual SST Anomaly forecast:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one

That's so reassuring for him, I'm sure.

LOL, how you doing Keeper?
Quoting hydrus:
Good red.. Didnt you notice how big the tree opened his maw for seconds.?

Sorry. I thought that was a Death Grimace!
There is also a swarm of small and some moderate quakes that have occured in the past couple of days near the Dominican Republic,Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and Mona Passage.

Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I thought that was a Death Grimace!
Burgundy overdose maybe..:)
Quoting MississippiWx:
And here is the actual SST Anomaly forecast:


Neutral Atlantic there.
Still, that's plenty warm enough for all kinds of Mischief!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
9.1? I'm not to sure about that. Here is a simulation of of a 7.7 in the area.
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening to you too Keep.....sheeesh...:)
sorry hydrus if its any comfort i will even feel the effects here in southern ontario or at least we did the last time it happen did you know church bells rang in new york from the same quake as well the last time it happen and there were three big ones over a six month stretch
The four earthquakesDecember 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2 – 8.1[2]) epicenter in northeast Arkansas. It caused only slight damage to man-made structures, mainly because of the sparse population in the epicentral area. The future location of Memphis, Tennessee experienced level IX shaking on the Mercalli intensity scale. A seismic seiche propagated upriver, and Little Prairie (a village that was on the site of the former Fort San Fernando, near the site of present-day Caruthersville, Missouri) was heavily damaged by soil liquefaction.[3]
December 16, 1811, 1415 UTC (8:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2–8.1) epicenter in northeast Arkansas. This shock followed the first earthquake by six hours and was similar in intensity.[2]
January 23, 1812, 1500 UTC (9 a.m.); (M ~7.0–7.8[2]) epicenter in the Missouri Bootheel. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks. Johnson and Schweig attributed this earthquake to a rupture on the New Madrid North Fault. This may have placed strain on the Reelfoot Fault.[3]
February 7, 1812, 0945 UTC (4:45 a.m.); (M ~7.4–8.0[2]) epicenter near New Madrid, Missouri. New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, Missouri, many houses were severely damaged, and their chimneys were toppled. This shock was definitively attributed to the Reelfoot Fault by Johnston and Schweig. Uplift along a segment of this reverse fault created temporary waterfalls on the Mississippi at Kentucky Bend, created waves that propagated upstream, and caused the formation of Reelfoot Lake by obstructing streams in what is now Lake County, Tennessee.[3]
Quoting pottery:

Last decent one we had was 6.2.
My wife was driving on the highway and thought that the steering had gone bananas.
Couldn't keep the car in a straight line....

At home we lost some stuff from shelves, and about half the water from the fish tank.
A Tsunami!

The strongest I've experienced was a magnitude 5.3
where is the radar with no clutter...wasnt there somethin done to git rid of it?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Well now aren't you just a bundle of joy.
Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through the firm midwestern bedrock, with residents as far away as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, awakened by intense shaking.[9] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[10] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry hydrus if its any comfort i will even feel the effects here in southern ontario or at least we did the last time it happen did you know church bells rang in new york from the same quake as well the last time it happen and there were three big ones over a six month stretch
Actually- I did some research on the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake, and it was massive in more ways than one.Damage-range comparison between a moderate New Madrid zone earthquake (1895, magnitude 6.8), and a similar Los Angeles event (1994, magnitude 6.7).
and its 2012 two hundred years ago to the year
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Well now aren't you just a bundle of joy.
HHHAAAA HHHHAAA !!!
night all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through the firm midwestern bedrock, with residents as far away as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, awakened by intense shaking.[9] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[10] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed
Get that off Wikipedia?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and its 2012 two hundred years ago to the year

... and Grothar was there.....
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
9.1? I'm not to sure about that. Here is a simulation of of a 7.7 in the area.

The largest quakes tend to occur along subbuction zones and are more likely to produce megathrust quakes (9.0 )
The eastern caribbean sits next to a subduction zone plate boundary, so the area around Japan which is reffered to as the ring of fire plate
Quoting hydrus:
Actually- I did some research on the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake, and it was massive in more ways than one.Damage-range comparison between a moderate New Madrid zone earthquake (1895, magnitude 6.8), and a similar Los Angeles event (1994, magnitude 6.7).
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
Quoting SPLbeater:
night all
G,nite SPL.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
I must mention that I live on top of the Cumberland Caverns. A rather spooky network of caves that is over 25 miles long and covered with cemeteries. An earthquake would be a bit unsettling. I go to church with a relative of the man who discovered them. Excerpt..Cumberland Caverns is the second to third longest cave in Tennessee, USA. It has a surveyed length of 27.616 miles (44.4 kilometers), which makes it the 14th longest cave in the United States and the 64th longest cave in the World.

The main entrance was discovered by Aaron Higgenbotham in 1810 while he was surveying the nearby Chickamauga Trail on Cardwell Mountain in what is now Warren County. According to legend, Higgenbotham was the first man to enter the cave and it was named Higgenbotham Cave in his honor. Another smaller cave, also located on Cardwell Mountain, was also discovered about this time and was named Henshaw Cave. Although not nearly as big as Higgenbotham Cave, Henshaw Cave proved to be a source of saltpeter (the main ingredient of gunpowder) and was operated as a saltpeter mine during perhaps both the War of 1812 and the Civil War.

Higgenbotham Cave became a favorite spot for local adventurers during the 19th century and groups would ride out to the entrance in Haywagons and make the strenuous trip to a point in the cave now known as the Ten Acre Room. In the days of the Haywagon parties, it was called the Big Room. Here, many visitors left their names and the date candled on the ceiling.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
the reason for such strong event has alot to do with all the fracking thats been done west of the spine as far north as ohio and beyond we are hollowing out the entire layer which will enhance any events that may occur
>...And there is still lots of caves to be surveyed....lots..
Quoting hydrus:
>...And there is still lots of caves to be surveyed....lots..

I'm off to bed......good night guys
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the reason for such strong event has alot to do with all the fracking thats been done west of the spine as far north as ohio and beyond we are hollowing out the entire layer which will enhance any events that may occur
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
Quoting nigel20:

I'm off to bed......good night guys
G,nite Nige. I was going to ask if you read my post about the 04 Nino.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
Not to but in, but it is one big ugly fault. Not a subduction fault tho...Thank goodness.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
that would be extreme case but an high to low 8.something could or can happen
I was in a 6.8 earthquake sitting on the hayward bridge trying to get to the World series in 1989. The car started to bounce like someone jumped on the back bumper.
Quoting cyclonerichard:
I was in a 6.8 earthquake sitting on the hayward bridge trying to get to the World series in 1989. The car started to bounce like someone jumped on the back bumper.
Ouch. I remember that one well. The Lome Prieta Earthquake.State Route 1 collapsed in western Watsonville over Struve Slough.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that would be extreme case but an high to low 8.something could or can happen
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Only reason I went up that high is cause you went up in that lower 9's as a possibility. Just played around with the idea in my head.
Signing off..A blessed night to all..
Quoting hydrus:
Signing off..A blessed night to all..
Good night to you as well.
the last one i felt was the 5.8 that happen along the Que/ont border region felt a little rumbling and slight swaying action was on the roof of the highrise at the time it was during the summit i remember cause i was thinking the noise and shaking was caused by the three us marine helcopters that flew overhead during obama arrival at pearson but when i got down stairs my better half said we had just had a 5.8 in ottawa region near quebec thats been my 3rd one in the 25 years i've been here
night bro
There was a small EQ in my neck of the woods a couple of years ago. I slept through it. My son told me when I woke up that he heard a loud rumbling noise. I looked it up at USGS and there was like a 3.5 about 12 miles away.
they occur just not as often as in other regions of the world

normally you would see a big event like new madrid every 200 years or so
its only 20 minutes away by car on the 401 from my building
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER LUA (16U)
12:00 PM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Lua (989 hPa) located at 26.0S 120.3E or 65 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 18 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lua has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

A Severe Weather Warning is active for this system. Please refer to warning [IDW28001] for more information.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
People in or near Wiluna are advised that the Blue Alert has been lifted but there is still a Severe Weather Warning active for the area. Please refer to product IDW28001 for more information.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 17U
2:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.8S 140.8E or 75 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5:00 pm EST [4:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Don't usually post GW stuff on this blog but for those interested in the methane in the arctic, thought this link might be interesting.

AMEG Position

DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY



We declare there now exists an extremely high international security risk* from abrupt and runaway global warming being triggered by the end-summer collapse of Arctic sea ice towards a fraction of the current record and release of huge quantities of methane gas from the seabed. Such global warming would lead at first to worldwide crop failures but ultimately and inexorably to the collapse of civilization as we know it. This colossal threat demands an immediate emergency scale response to cool the Arctic and save the sea ice. The latest available data indicates that a sea ice collapse is more than likely by 2015 and even possible this summer (2012). Thus some measures to counter the threat have to be ready within a few months.



The immediacy of this risk is underlined by the discovery of vast areas of continental shelf already in a critical condition as a result of the warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed. Increasingly large quantities of methane are being emitted from the seabed. Moreover there is the possibility of methane held as hydrates or under thawing permafrost being suddenly released in very large quantities due to some disturbance such as an earthquake. The quantities of methane in the continental shelf are so vast that a release of only one or two percent of the methane could lead to the release of the remaining methane in an unstoppable chain reaction. Global warming would spiral upward way beyond the 2 degrees which many scientists consider the safety limit.
Quoting hydrus:
Ouch. I remember that one well. The Lome Prieta Earthquake.State Route 1 collapsed in western Watsonville over Struve Slough.


Very intense image. I was on the Oakland freeway that pancaked just 30 day prior to the event. I will never forget Al Micheal at the World Series. Thanks for that image. - whadda day
I leave you with this.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.7S 140.6E or 90 km north northwest of Karumba and 150 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters this evening, where it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning. The low is expected to adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track during Monday.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8:00 pm EST [7:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.6S 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.0S 140.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4S 140.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.6S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.4 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.5. MET and PT suggest 3.0 and 2.5 respectively. Final Dvorak based on DT as it is clear.

Low level convection has improved significantly over the last 6 hours and deep convection has developed near the center of the low. The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction this evening due to the influence of a mid level ridge across central Australia, though the low should adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday. Overall, the low is in a favorable environment for further development and is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Good morning folks! 66 here this morning, looks to be another warm and sunny here in florida, have a great day everyone
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...DENSE FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE DETECTED SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF
COAST. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSING OVER THE AREA
MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE FOG PERIODICALLY
LIFTING AND THEN SETTLING BACK TO THE GROUND. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE.

FLZ008-012-014-015-108-112-114-115-181300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FG.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T1300Z/
CENTRAL WALTON-INLAND BAY-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YOUNGSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...
FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...
PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 /427 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING...

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS NEAR THE
GULF COAST PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES OVER WATERWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD
OF YOU.

&&

$$

08-LAMERS
Pilbara residents mop up after TC Lua

PILBARA residents have been given the all-clear as cyclone Lua winds down, but the Gascoyne region in WA's northwest remains on blue alert.

The tropical cyclone, which pounded the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts with 220km/h winds yesterday, was downgraded to a category 1 storm this morning.

The Port Hedland Port Authority said anchorage would be opened to iron ore export vessels at 10am with a view to first port entry and port opening at midnight.

At 8am, the Bureau of Meteorology estimated Lua to be 220km north of Wiluna, moving south at 30km/h.

The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon today, but winds of up to 100km/h are expected to persist until evening in the eastern Gascoyne, western interior and northern Goldfields.

Flood warnings are also in place, but some roads have reopened.

The North West Coastal Highway from Roeburne to Port Hedland has reopened, but the Great Northern Hwy remains closed from Mekatharra to Broome, as well as Marble Bar Rd from Newman to Port Hedland, and the Goldfields Hwy from Meekatharra to Wiluna.

Fire and Emergency Services of Western Australia (FESA) spokeswoman Lyn Bryant said the only report of damage had been to the Pardoo Roadhouse.

She said a team was flying to Pardoo early today to inspect the damage, while police would check on the Jigalong settlement, which was lashed by heavy rain.

Lua, packing winds of 250km/h and dumping heavy rain, crossed the coastline at Pardoo about 3pm yesterday.
'We've come out of it pretty well', says FESA chief

RESIDENTS in northwest WA have had a lucky escape after Tropical Cyclone Lua slammed into the coastline with winds of up to 220kmh, but left minimal damage in its wake.

Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokesman Les Hayter said today that coordination centres in Broome and Karratha had been closed, emergency workers were being demobilised, and control of the region handed back to local authorities as Lua fizzled out.

While severe weather warnings remained in some parts of the Gascoyne district, no-one had been reported injured or missing, and damage had been limited mainly to roofs and minor flooding.

Most sealed roads in the area have been reopened. At 11am today, the Bureau of Meteorology said Lua was 65km north of Wiluna and moving south at about 35km/h.

It had lost most of its intensity and was no longer a cyclone after crossing the Pilbara coast as a category four system about 3pm on Saturday.

"We've come out of it pretty well," Mr Hayter said by phone from Karratha.

"It was potentially a category five cyclone when it crossed the coast but it didn't get to that level, thank goodness.

"The community was prepared and heeded our warnings and stayed inside on red alert, but there was an element of luck.''

Mr Hayter said "every station and community in the region had been contacted", and everyone accounted for.

The Pardoo Roadhouse, about 150km east of Port Hedland near the coast, had been worst hit.

"They had a fair bit of a hammering there,'' Mr Hayter said.
He said eight search and rescue personnel had been sent to the area to assess any danger and conduct temporary repairs.

Pardoo Roadhouse manager Janet Robb earlier said she and her partner Ian Badger were relieved to be alive after sheltering from the storm with their dog.

"It was absolutely horrific,'' she said after the cyclone passed.

"There was half an hour there where you thought, 'Is this ever going to end? Is the roof going to lift? Is the wall going to cave in?'"

Ms Robb said all the trees in the grounds were down, fuel bowsers had been blown over and the roadhouse had been damaged.

"The water came in every door, every window seal, it just bubbled in, it's unbelievable," she said.

"It was pretty wild. At least we're alive."

Ms Robb said she didn't plan to stay around for the next cyclone.

Annabelle Coppin of Yarrie Homestead, about 90km northeast of Marble Bar, said Lua went right over the cattle station and blew hard for about three hours, leaving a trail of damage.

"We've got a massive mess to clean up, a few buildings that look a bit sad and a sad-looking garden,'' she said.

"It will probably take at least 12 months to get back to where we were a couple of hours ago but we live in a cyclone area so that's what happens."

Port Hedland residents experienced strong gusting winds up to 150km/h but the town escaped major damage.

Heavy rain and winds of up to 100km/h are expected to persist in the eastern Gascoyne, western interior and northern Goldfields areas until evening.

A helicopter conducting reconnaissance over Wallal Downs Station had a hard landing on Sunday afternoon, but the four people aboard were not injured.

The chopper damaged its tail boom during landing about 3km northeast of Port Hedland, but the pilot, two FESA personnel and one St John Ambulance paramedic got out uninjured.

WA police are managing the incident in conjunction with the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
Roadhouse manager tells of wild cyclone

THE manager of a Pilbara roadhouse has described how wild winds shook the building and water poured in everywhere as tropical cyclone Lua roared in from the sea.

Janet Robb, who runs the Pardoo Roadhouse with her partner Ian Badger, said the two of them sat out the worst of the storm with their pet dog overnight and were relieved to be alive.

Their property, on the Great Northern Highway 150km east of Port Hedland, was in the path of the category 4 cyclone as it swept onto land packing 250km/h winds and driving rain.

"It was absolutely horrific," Ms Robb told AAP after the cyclone passed.

"There was half an hour there where you thought, 'Is this ever going to end? Is the roof going to lift? Is the wall going to cave in?'

"That's what it felt like because everything was moving."

Ms Robb said all the trees in the grounds were down, the fuel bowsers had been blown over and the roadhouse had been damaged.
"The water came in every door, every window seal, it just bubbled in, it's unbelievable.

"Every light fitting, the water had seeped in so God knows what the roof looks like."

Ms Robb said the storm was very noisy with branches coming off trees and banging into the building.

"It was pretty wild. At least we're alive. These things are sent to try us."

Ms Robb said the roadhouse dongas appeared to be all still standing but they would not be able to assess the full damage until daylight.

She said she didn't plan to stay around for the next cyclone.

WA's Fire and Emergency Services Association (FESA) said Lua was weakening as it headed south but high winds and heavy rain still posed a threat as the cyclone headed towards the community of Nullagine after passing Marble Bar.

Annabelle Coppin of Yarrie Homestead about 90km northeast of Marble Bar said Lua went right over the cattle station and it blew hard for about three hours, leaving a trail of damage.

Roofing iron was blown off machinery sheds, windmills and cattle crates were bowled over, many trees were down but the cattle should be fine, she said.

"We've got a massive mess to clean up, a few buildings that look a bit sad and a sad-looking garden."

"It will probably take at least 12 months to get back to where we were a couple of hours ago but we live in a cyclone area so that's what happens."

Nullagine was on red alert on last night as the cyclone approached, meaning residents had to stay indoors and not be out in the open or driving vehicles.

A relocation centre at Nullagine was expecting to shelter around 110 people as the cyclone passed directly through.

Lua was expected to continue south towards the larger town of Newman but it might only be a category 1 system or less when it arrives today.

Port Hedland residents experienced strong gusting winds up to 150km/h but the red alert was lifted on yesterday afternoon.

A range of flood warnings are in place in the Pilbara, Kimberley, the Gascoyne, the Midwest and the Goldfield regions because of heavy rainfalls associated with the cyclone.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


yoo but remember how much MAJOR hurricanes the eastern pacific had?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD TODAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF TO THE WEST. WITHOUT ANY SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OTHER THAN SOME ISO/SCT NUISANCE SHRAS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AND LLVL WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY (WILL PROBABLY NEED A WIND ADVSY). STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP TO DEAL WITH BUT DO ANTICIPATE MORE COVERAGE - PROBABLY SCT IN NATURE - MON AFTN COMPARED TO TODAY.

STILL LOOKING FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST MON NIGHT AND MOVE WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY IN THE 6AM-3PM TIMEFRAME ON TUE. VERY STR0NG LLVL JET (ESP N/NW AREAS WHERE GFS HAS SOME 70KT H85 WINDS FCST AT 12Z TUE)...HIGH HELICITIES AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AND SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 - BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ANYWHERE. ALL FORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLAY WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND TORNADOES/HAIL SECONDARY. ASSUMING THIS LINE CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE...FEEL THE FCSTED 1-2" AVERAGE AND LOCALIZED 3-4" STILL LOOKS GOOD.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Was in a 4.3 here in GA. I think it was back in 2003. The people who lived next door thought there house was falling of the hill into the river lol.
and i slept right through it, so i never felt 1. Anybody still going with 3/22 for the next one? ;)
Good Morning. From 11n 61w.
Bright and hazy here, with a small chance of showers.
Lots of moist stuff over Venezuela and Columbia and further south but unlikely we will see much of that.

Going to be a Hot One.
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.
Quoting percylives:
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.


I was wondering that myself.
Dread Times !
Quoting percylives:
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.
HAMWeather gets their numbers directly from the NCDC site, and that site crashed on Friday evening. It started acting funny early in the day; I have to assume it was overload. A major site change last summer added a lot of overhead by forcing major calculations to be made each and every time the page was loaded. The change made the information more valuable and user-friendly, but it came at the expense of performance.
mornin all. had a NICE thunderstorm come over about 3 AM last night...good show out the window with lightning, then a dramatic 10 second rumble after lol. all i could think is "Now why cant something like this occur when its daytime..."
New Blog is up....
A few observations from the area.

The tulip poplar trees of central VA are leafing out.

The number of butterflies and moths flying around here in central VA is characteristic of May, not March. Here come the caterpillars.

My fig bushes are starting to grow the spring figs and their terminal buds are opening.

More importantly, I've already eaten my first asparagus shoot (about 3 weeks early according to the local county extension agent). There will be several more on the dinner table this evening.

Even Garrison Keillor mentioned the weather in his Prairie Home Companion show yesterday. He said something about the March weather causing the residents of Lake Wobegon to instinctively know they were in a spot they shouldn't be in, like that room in the house full of antiques you were forbidden to enter when you were a child. The unseasonable warmth is now making it into the meme of our culture. This is a major step in the acceptance that something strange is afoot. And that is a major step in addressing the possible causes of this exceptional warmth including excess fossilized carbon in the atmosphere.

As you might have surmised, I'm with the folks at Lake Wobegon. We have our hands in Mother Nature's cookie jar and a likely paddling is in our future.

Expecting a high of 20°C/68°F today here. Which is only 17°C or 31°F above the normal. Even more incredible is the long range: 15°C, 23°C, 23°C, 21°C, 13°C.

If all this holds true, This march will beat the record of 20°C+ days by 1 day. And we aren't done yet, are we?

Here are some numbers (record-keeping began in 1942) for you to feast on (if you like numbers as much as me)...


Top 3 Marches with # of days > or = to 20°C (top 5 warmest march days in bold)

1945 with 3: (26th, 28th, 25.6°C (warmest march day on record) and 29th)
1946 with 2: (28th, 21.7°C (tied 5th warmest) and 29th, 23.9°C (second warmest))
1962 (30th), 1977 (30th, 21.7°C (tied 5th warmest)), 1986 (30th, 22.6°C (3rd warmest)), 1998 (30th), 2006 (30th, 22.0°C (4th warmest)) with 1.

Top 4 Marches with # of days > or = to 10°C

1st: 1945, 1946 and 2010 tied with 11.
2nd: 1995 with 9.
3rd: 1987 and 2000 tied with 8.
4th: 1977 with 7.

2012 so far: 5 (the forecast tells us that this number will be at 12 in 7 days and then what?)


Browsing the numbers, we find that the 26th of march in 1945 is the earliest day on record where the thermometer surpassed 20°C. Today, the 18th of march, as previously stated, the forecast calls for a high of 20°C. This would break the record by an unbelievable 8 days! What's even more appealing is the fact that all possible 4 days above 20°C this week would break the record for the earliest day above 20°C on record. Astonishing!

Longest streak in March of 20°C+ days is 2 with 1945 and 1946 tied. The forecast calls for 3 consecutive days at or above 20°C from Tuesday to Thursday. Weather can change but this end-of-spring-like warmth is surely exceptional nonetheless.