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Subtropical Storm May Still Develop Off Southeast Coast This Week

By: Bob Henson 3:23 PM GMT on May 04, 2015

Models are still suggesting that a moisture-laden disturbance off the southeast U.S. coast could develop into a subtropical cyclone later this week, although there is large uncertainty about how strong it might be and where it might go. A band of rich moisture now extends from the northwest Caribbean across Cuba into the southeast Bahama Islands. This air mass will shift north over the next several days, where it will intercept a decaying frontal boundary. Heavy rains will develop over the Bahamas over the next couple of days, possibly extending to the southeast Florida coast. If a closed low does form, it will likely be blocked from moving north as upper-level high pressure builds over the Northeast. The GFS model has been bullish on the prospects of a closed surface low forming along the boundary by midweek, then moving very slowly into the weekend. The 00Z and 06Z Monday GFS runs develop the this and bring it into the Georgia/South Carolina coast on Friday, with winds near the threshold for a tropical/subtropical storm, then keep it in that vicinity through the weekend. Such a scenario could bring several days of high surf and potentially heavy rain to parts of the southeast U.S. coast. The European model had been more tepid than the GFS, calling for a much weaker system located further offshore; the 00Z Monday run of the Euro is closer to the GFS in strength, but still keeps the system well offshore, moving away from the coast by the weekend. The 12Z Monday NAM model is even stronger than the GFS with a closed low projected to move close to the South Carolina coast by Thursday evening; however, the NAM is generally less reliable than the GFS or Euro in predicting tropical storm evolution.


Figure 1. The 90-hour surface forecast from the 06Z Monday GFS model run, valid at 8:00 pm EDT Thursday night, May 7. Image credit: WunderMap.


The low should initially develop as a result of the juicy low-level air mass being overtopped by a strong impulse in the powerful subtropical jet stream fed by the current El Niño conditions. Models show the high-altitude flow remaining cyclonic over the region, rather than the anticyclonic flow that would be associated with a typical tropical cyclone. However, winds at the center of the upper low will be quite light over the region of interest, which could allow for a compact warm-core circulation to develop. Sea-surface temperatures are also unusually warm--more than 2°C (3.6°F) above average over a large area just north of the Bahamas and east of Florida, close to where the system would be taking shape. Even so, these SSTs are still marginal for tropical-storm development, running at or above the commonly used 26°C threshold in a limited area from the Bahamas through a narrow band of Gulf Stream waters extending north toward the latitude of the Carolinas. The most recent phase-space diagrams from Florida State University, based on the 06Z Monday run of the GFS, show the system evolving as a very weak tropical cyclone (symmetric warm-core system), bringing it onshore late this week over South Carolina. In a special tropical statement issued at 10 am EDT Monday, the National Hurricane Center pegged the odds of at least subtropical development at 30% over the next five days, but near 0% through Wednesday. An Air Force hurricane-hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system on Tuesday morning if necessary. If the low becomes a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Ana (pronounced "AH-na"]. Regardless of how the disturbance evolves, we can expect an increasing risk of high surf and rip currents from Florida to the Carolinas over the next several days.

Update: Wunderground blogger Steve Gregory weighs in on the potential subtropical/tropical system in his latest post. Readers may also enjoy the video update provided by Levi Cowan this afternoon at his Tropical Tidbits website.

On the scene at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
I’ll be blogging this week from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, located at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Each year the HWT and its Experimental Warning Program carry out a multi-week Spring Experiment that brings forecasters and researchers together to test-drive the latest in severe-weather warning technology. This year’s experiment begins today and runs through June 5. There should be at least a seasonable amount of severe weather across the southern Plains through this week, as ample moisture interacts with energy from an upper low gradually taking shape over the Southwest. The most active days appear to be Wednesday and Saturday right now. With widespread nonsevere showers and thunderstorms also expected, the trick will be anticipating where pockets of instability might develop after each night’s round of storms, and where small-scale ripples in the jet stream could set off a new batch of severe weather. For a project designed to push the boundaries of predictability, these challenges could be just the ticket.

Bob Henson

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

cool'
yeehaw.....
forecast shear at 72 hours


Thanks for the new Post BOB...
Thanks Dr. Henson, looks like you'll be at just the right place.

And from last blog:

Quoting 347. beell:

win1game...a late reply-missed it earlier.

I don't recall the length of the media blackout and flyovers. A couple days, I think. Long enough to get the conspiracy nuts cranked up!

These guys out of Ft. Worth did a darn good job of a Bolivar fly-over.
hawkeyemedia.com

Got a bit of a glitch on the page but clears up after using the "advance arrow" on each side of the frame to load the next panorama.

left-click to pan up/down/all around. scroll to zoom in/out


Cool I'll give it a look when I'm not on my phone, requires adobe flash to view.

Quoting 365. HaoleboySurfEC:

Actually dry all this week and beyond so we will take the rain but probably affecting weekend :-(

Palmettos - state tree are native up to Cape Fear. SC symbol of liberty as their fibrous trunks are adept at absorbing the impacts of cannonball.




I don't think we have enough of them to build forts with, outside of Bald Head Island (which has tons of them in the forests) and south of Fort Fisher they're patchy along coastal Brunswick county headed to the state line. I wish we had more, they're cool.

Dwarf palmettos, on the other hand, are everywhere. There's an uninhabited island in the middle of the Currituck Sound (about an hour or two south of VA Beach) that is covered in them. Very common in cypress swamps too. Maybe they can be our state mini-tree.
I'll give this system a 20% chance for the next 48hours and 40% over the five days. It looks pretty much organized...
Thanks Mr. Henson; here is the NOAA definition again for a subtropical system:

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

As noted by TA13 recently (and the chart below), all of that convective activity we are currently seeing is the result of the upper level tutt cell draped across the western flank of the current disturbed area. Plenty of warm moist air at the surface as you have noted interacting with the pool of cooler air dropping down from the upper levels causing the baroclinic flare-up of convection:


a few days ago i saw long range gfs and it said there could be a follow up system a couple weeks from now. active early yr so far
Bob Henson,
On the scene at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed.
Well, enjoy Norman! And don't forget to go out and look at the sky now and then.
;)
12Z GFS 30hrs out



Entertained by the model consistency in developing this system, but still skeptical.
Interesting, looks like the low will want to form closer to the coast.

Quoting 13. Gearsts:





As expected the WPAC has been very active and will continue that way on 2015.
One may want to secure their "Lawn Chair's"

: P

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 2m 2 minutes ago

Warmest Sea-Surface Temps are along axis of Gulf Stream at 26°C just off Florida, sufficient for tropical storms

Depth of 26C isotherm

Quoting 11. StormJunkie:

12Z GFS 30hrs out



Entertained by the model consistency in developing this system, but still skeptical.


Given the number of systems that had our area in the crosshairs, only to make that right hook, or skirt on up to the OBX, it's understandable to feel like this won't amount to much.
Recon for Wednesday if necessary.


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 04 MAY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....................(CORRECTION FOR DATE)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 06/1500Z
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
12z GFS full-res, 84 hours out.

Quoting 19. nash36:



Given the number of systems that had our area in the crosshairs, only to make that right hook, or skirt on up to the OBX, it's understandable to feel like this won't amount to much.


Yep Nash, more often than not that's the case. Storms don't like the hooked coastline. Good to see ya, and glad y'all ran those folks out of town!
If nothing else, waves OBX southward. I need something larger than waist high to keep me in it.

Quoting 9. islander101010:

a few days ago i saw long range gfs and it said there could be a follow up system a couple weeks from now. active early yr so far
From last blog:

Quoting 463. Tropicsweatherpr:

Hi nrt,you said a few weeks ago that the ATCF file for invests is the same but that file doesn't have tests that they do before a real invest is up.


That is a link to the Best Track file and I guess they don't track "test" storms in that file. You could look at the Ships file which does include "test" storms and see position, track, etc from there.
Quoting 19. nash36:



Given the number of systems that had our area in the crosshairs, only to make that right hook, or skirt on up to the OBX, it's understandable to feel like this won't amount to much.
This may be one of those times to disregard what has happened in the past and go with the current or forecasted conditions aloft. The ridge appears to be strong enough to the north to force the system to make landfall and not take a gradual curve up the coast that we are used to seeing. Beryl would seem to be a good analog except further north. In addition to the track, subtropical systems tend to behave differently then their tropical counterparts.

GFS this run takes it into SC Lowcountry
12Z GFS forms the low near West Palm Beach. Very likely some squally weather across Eastern FL on Wednesday.

GFS shifting west with the rest of the models.

Quoting 20. Tropicsweatherpr:

Recon for Wednesday if necessary.


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 04 MAY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....................(CORRECTION FOR DATE)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 06/1500Z
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.


GFS has it just about over West Palm Beach on Wednesday before moving NNE toward South Carolina.

Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpts:

THE LARGEST INFLUENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THE
NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDE THE DECAYING REX-BLOCK OVER THE BERING
SEA...WHICH IS PROMOTING SPLIT-FLOW DOWNSTREAM AND A MEAN TROUGH
IN THE WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE
ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE HIGH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF ITS STEERING INFLUENCE WITH ANY
LOW OR LOWS THAT MIGHT FORM OVER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NHC AND OPC...WE ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT TO REPOSITION ANY ANTICIPATED LOW SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
AND STATIONARY FOR DAYS 5-7 IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN INTERMEDIATE
CHOICE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD 06Z GEFS MEAN AND MORE OFFSHORE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM OWING TO MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES IN CORE IDENTITY AND OTHER
MESOSCALE PROCESSES...NOT THE MENTION ANY UPSTREAM INFLUENCES.


So looks like a week of "discussion" on the blog......
Thanks Bob...
Quoting 32. presslord:

Will someone please post the most recent graphic of Ana humping the ridge?


You happen to see the latest CHS Forecast discussion? No? Here's a quote from it...

"AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY."
I'd put the odds of development at a conservative 60% now. The system isn't anything to get overly excited about, but it should be the first cyclone of the season, and it is likely to bring unsettled weather to the coastal Southeast, especially the Carolinas.
37. vis0

Quoting 15. Patrap:

One may want to secure their "Lawn Chair's"

: P
How to properly secure a lawn chair.
3 EASY steps

1) buy lawn chair
2) buy sturdy chain (nothing below the ability to hold 1 ton per link)
3) add spider web (tree not necessary if you have grandpa in rocking chair)
4) a lawn (preferably over 5 acres)
5) an excuse to waste time
6) Notice the chain has been tripled over THATs very smart of you Taz.
7) finally some wind, invite your local politician and ask him/her to speaks on any subject that pertains to why they deserve better pay. The winds from that speech should reach Fu3 (Fu not for the respected honorable Mr. Fujita)
8) ...find the tree and reattached the roots, notice chain & chair still attached to tree branch.



On the serious side be aware not afraid respect nature and listen to those watches & warnings if it misses you be thankful not just for the miss but that you've learned something and are healthy enough to help those i
Quoting 23. HaoleboySurfEC:

If nothing else, waves OBX southward. I need something larger than waist high to keep me in it.




I think I saw somewhere that Brunswick County beaches could see 6-8 foot swells on Thursday/Friday. And I replied to your comment from the previous blog below.

Edit: http://magicseaweed.com/Ocean-Isle-Beach-Surf-Repo rt/675/
39. 7544
hi all cant believe im posting in may lol but looks like the models are shifting more west with may be a heavy rain event for se fla grow may get some of this one !
stay tuned
12Z Canadian also rapidly develops this system near West Palm Beach then moves what looks like ANA quickly NNE toward Georgia/South Carolina.



Quoting 39. 7544:

hi all cant believe im posting in may lol but looks like the models are shifting more west with may be a heavy rain event for se fla grow may get some of this one !
stay tuned


Models bring this system nearly on top of West Palm Beach. If that were to occur then E C FL as well as S FL would be in for a squally rainy Wednesday.
Very close to Cape Canaveral.

Quoting 38. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think I saw somewhere that Brunswick County beaches could see 6-8 foot swells on Thursday/Friday. And I replied to your comment from the previous blog below.

Edit: http://magicseaweed.com/Ocean-Isle-Beach-Surf-Repo rt/675/


Problem is current setup will keep easterly winds going, which while providing a sizable swell, will keep the conditions on the stormy side. Hoping for a clean up after it lifts out.

Brunswick County Beaches best conditions...SE swell and northerly winds. Tricky to get both in the same window.

Should be quite a bit of erosion.

Hope this does not indicate a pattern for 2015.
GEM shows the strongest, no surprise there, and ECMWF shows the weakest, no surprise there either. I would draw the line down the middle and go with a mix of the GFS/NAM and call for a moderate sub/tropical storm at best. Would I be surprised if this eventually became a hurricane? Nope not at all, if it rides the Gulf Stream and maintains good upper level support, then it is possible. Would I also be surprised if this amounted to very little? Nope not at all as well. Wind shear and dry continental air same thing that a more mature storm like Irene had to deal with could be factors to come into play. Btw if there is a couple things models struggle with is convection and intensity.

Given how far west the disturbance already is, I would lean towards the western model camp. The European models seem to be struggling with this. For example the new 12z UKMET seems way too far east to me. Given that further west is also over warmer SSTs, I'd lean towards the higher end of the modeled intensity range, within reason of course. The new CMC looks overdone, as usual. Once we get an invest tag then we can start talking specifics.
Can I get link to web site that shows most of model I don't want Florida tropical web site thanks in time
Quoting 45. MAweatherboy1:

Given how far west the disturbance already is, I would lean towards the western model camp. The European models seem to be struggling with this. For example the new 12z UKMET seems way too far east to me. Given that further west is also over warmer SSTs, I'd lean towards the higher end of the modeled intensity range, within reason of course. The new CMC looks overdone, as usual. Once we get an invest tag then we can start talking specifics.


Models are seemingly building something over or just off West Palm Beach then moves the system NNE from there. That track reminds me of Irene from 1999 as it was over S FL then shifted NNE offshore but came closer than what was progged by guidance and brought some very strong winds to the Orlando area at its closest approach
What are the chance that we will see our first Name storm in may .??

A medium
B high
C very High
D low
Quoting 22. StormJunkie:



Yep Nash, more often than not that's the case. Storms don't like the hooked coastline. Good to see ya, and glad y'all ran those folks out of town!


Well, it wasn't me. I left "there" at the end of February. Just couldn't do the night shift anymore. Not too conducive for a healthy marriage. Got a new gig two weeks later, and am happy to say I am back to the land of the living :-)
Quoting 43. HaoleboySurfEC:



Problem is current setup will keep easterly winds going, which while providing a sizable swell, will keep the conditions on the stormy side. Hoping for a clean up after it lifts out.

Brunswick County Beaches best conditions...SE swell and northerly winds. Tricky to get both in the same window.

Should be quite a bit of erosion.

Hope this does not indicate a pattern for 2015.


Maybe as the system moves out of the picture you'll have better conditions, and it'll be the weekend. Brunswick and the Crystal Coast are oddballs, being south facing beaches. Most of my surfer buddies make the occasional weekend trip to Ocracoke or Hatteras when the water warms up.
Looking forward to getting an Invest from this, as well as possibly a recon run, so we can get a better handle on what is to occur.
Key West Radar,composite view

The CMC/GEM never fails to entertain :)
Beautiful breezy day on the S.W. coast of Florida.
Is there a way to make the back ground gray? The white is really hard on my eyes.
Quoting 56. Patrap:

Key West Radar,composite view




Looks like RI going on....
Winds have increased over the last hour here in Hollywood, FL. Consistently gusting around 25-30 MPH now.
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile

124NM



Quoting 55. nash36:

Looking forward to getting an Invest from this, as well as possibly a recon run, so we can get a better handle on what is to occur.


Whatever this gives birth too in the coming days will be a slow and gradual process and a hybrid one at that. This could very well ride the spine of Florida as nothing more than an invest... If it can stay over water for most of it's northward trip than we may see something sub-tropical.
Good afternoon all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video discussing the potential for subtropical development off the SE U.S. coast later this week:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday May 4, 2015
Actually, it would be a good thing for the Keys and the Southern tip of Florida to benefit from some rain from this system so that "slow drift" of the rain towards the Keys is a good thing. SAL and very dry air is so otherwise pervasive across this region that I hope that the system stays close to them and drops several inches; big agricultural belt near Homestead (the "Redlands") that could sure use some more rain for this growing season.

Hopefully there aren't any small boats in the Florida Straits with 10 foot seas.
93W (Future Dolphin/Egay)
Good evening/afternoon. Interesting development ahead in the Bahamas; thanks for the new blog entry!

Weather guys in my German weather site wetteronline.de explained this morning that we're currently breathing Caribbean air (ahhhh: warm and sweltry) and they posted this graphic (I've talked about this atmospheric river earlier in here):



Surface low "Zoran", loaded with this tropical airmass is currently in the Gulf of Biscay and its center should perform a nice dance with upper level low "Ivo", currently to its northwest, until they merge while deepening (I hope I got this right, lol; have a look at the little gfs animation I've created below). With the jet stream blowing in, the cold front of "Zoran" should trigger some severe weather in western France later this evening.

Tomorrow the system will provide high winds for western Europe while eastern Germany should see some heavy thunderstorms (with me mid Germany probably in nowhere-weather-land between those events, lol).






Surface map from earlier today.

Estofex warnings for today with better explanations than I can manage.
Quoting 15. Patrap:

One may want to secure their "Lawn Chair's"

: P
Found this fun and informative article online.. Some great tips on how to keep that lawn chair safe and secure (we have no excuses people!)Link

Nice gusty winds on Sombrero Key (Middle) Florida Keys due North of the Cuban Coast:


Station SMKF1
NDBC
Location:
 24.628N 81.112W
Date: Mon, 04 May 2015 17:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 25.1 kt gusting to 27.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.12 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.8 F
Dew Point: 60.3 F

Gusting to 31 mph even on the West Coast. Still quite dry with dewpoints in the 50s.
Quoting 68. pablosyn:

93W (Future Dolphin/Egay)



This may be another strong Typhoon in the making.
Quoting 37. vis0:


How to properly secure a lawn chair.
3 EASY steps

1) buy lawn chair
2) buy sturdy chain (nothing below the ability to hold 1 ton per link)
3) add spider web (tree not necessary if you have grandpa in rocking chair)
4) a lawn (preferably over 5 acres)
5) an excuse to waste time
6) Notice the chain has been tripled over THATs very smart of you Taz.
7) finally some wind, invite your local politician and ask him/her to speaks on any subject that pertains to why they deserve better pay. The winds from that speech should reach Fu3 (Fu not for the respected honorable Mr. Fujita)
8) ...find the tree and reattached the roots, notice chain & chair still attached to tree branch.



On the serious side be aware not afraid respect nature and listen to those watches & warnings if it misses you be thankful not just for the miss but that you've learned something and are healthy enough to help those i

Nice effort Vis... looks like you put the same amount of time as I did... :)
Quoting 59. yoboi:



Looks like RI going on....


LMAO !!! it will be a cat 5 by DMAX !



only joshing
Looks like Yap is going to, if not already taking a beating from Tropical Storm Noul. Forecast track doesn't have Noul, leaving the Yap area until Wednesday night, possibly as Cat 1-2. I think it will be more of a rain event then wind, but still Yap will encounter quite a punch, As the system is only moving at 3 MPH.






Quoting 65. Levi32:

Good afternoon all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video discussing the potential for subtropical development off the SE U.S. coast later this week:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday May 4, 2015


Well done, Levi! As always, thank you for your detailed analysis.
Quoting 70. barbamz:

Good evening/afternoon. Interesting development ahead in the Bahamas; thanks for the new blog entry!

Weather guys in my German weather site wetteronline.de explained this morning that we're currently breathing Caribbean air (ahhhh: warm and sweltry) and they posted this graphic (I've talked about this atmospheric river earlier in here):



Surface low "Zoran", loaded with this tropical airmass is currently in the Gulf of Biscay and its center should perform a nice dance with upper level low "Ivo", currently to its northwest, until they merge while deepening (I hope I got this right, lol; have a look at the little gfs animation I've created below). With the jet stream blowing in, the cold front of "Zoran" should trigger some severe weather in western France later this evening.

Tomorrow the system will provide high winds for western Europe while eastern Germany should see some heavy thunderstorms (with me mid Germany probably in nowhere-weather-land between those events, lol).






Surface map from earlier today.

Estofex warnings for today with better explanations than I can manage.


That's the Good Ole El-Nino at work as it is enhancing this Sub Tropical Jet ATTM.

Quoting 75. Tropicsweatherpr:



This may be another strong Typhoon in the making.


Yes. Already have circulation, a well outflow starting to appear, convection starting to become more organized in the center...models showing a Super Typhoon in the weekend or next monday....or earlier? Who knows? :p
Quoting 77. VR46L:



LMAO !!! it will be a cat 5 by DMAX !



only joshing



Euro is 300 to 500 miles east of the rest of the pack on its 12Z run. I swear this model for years now has sucked at Topical formation in both intensity and track.

XXL/AOI/XX
Quoting 83. Patrap:







So.....we have the GFS and the NAM fixated (thus far) on some sort of hybrid system either making landfall, or raking the Charleston area. Regardless of what this becomes and the ultimate track, I think it's pretty safe to say it is going to be a wet, sloppy weekend for GA, SC and perhaps NC.
Good afternoon all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video discussing the potential for subtropical development off the SE U.S. coast later this week:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday May 4, 2015


levi....not discrediting your knowledge or forecast....but as a fan of WU...why not post this on your blog here?

2015 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball93W.INVEST


green ball06W.NOUL



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
And of course the WPC folks will always go with the Euro which is way off compared to the rest of the models.
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is 300 to 500 miles east of the rest of the pack on its 12Z run. I swear this model for years now has sucked at Topical formation in both intensity and track.




It appears the ECMWF is depicting a much weaker EC ridge. Idk, Scott. The ECMWF was pretty solid with TC formation over the last couple of years. Conversely, the GFS has been crapping the rack. Having said that, if every model stays consistent with the WWD track, leaving only the ECMWF that far east, then it will most likely be discounted. Discounting the ECMWF will make NHC cringe. Lol.
Quoting 85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/AOI/XX



Western solution seems likely given the recent appearance of the sat. images. GFS, CMC, & NAM are all in agreement while the Euro is several hundred miles east. LOL
Quoting 86. nash36:



So.....we have the GFS and the NAM fixated (thus far) on some sort of hybrid system either making landfall, or raking the Charleston area. Regardless of what this becomes and the ultimate track, I think it's pretty safe to say it is going to be a wet, sloppy weekend for GA, SC and perhaps NC.


NAM 12Z HR 69 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING

Quoting 86. nash36:



So.....we have the GFS and the NAM fixated (thus far) on some sort of hybrid system either making landfall, or raking the Charleston area. Regardless of what this becomes and the ultimate track, I think it's pretty safe to say it is going to be a wet, sloppy weekend for GA, SC and perhaps NC.


Gonna be wet and sloppy in SFL soon..
Quoting 90. nash36:



It appears the ECMWF is depicting a much weaker EC ridge. Idk, Scott. The ECMWF was pretty solid with TC formation over the last couple of years. Conversely, the GFS has been crapping the rack. Having said that, if every model stays consistent with the WWD track, leaving only the ECMWF that far east, then it will most likely be discounted. Discounting the ECMWF will make NHC cringe. Lol.


I have to disagree outside of Sandy the Euro has been garbage when predicting Tropical Systems. However the Euro is the best at predicting overall weather patterns across the US but the model has had struggles lately with Tropical Systems.

GFS outside of the May and October massacre of FL every year has been alright with regards to Topical Systems.
GFS HR 72 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING

Quoting 91. StormTrackerScott:



Western solution seems likely given the recent appearance of the sat. images. GFS, CMC, & NAM are all in agreement while the Euro is several hundred miles east. LOL


I've said it before, and I think it bears repeating....I would NOT be surprised in the least if the ECMWF ends up being right, standing all alone, as the other models walk away in shame. Lol. In all seriousness, it has happened before. It's rare, but we've seen an entire camp of models screw the pooch, while one model sticks with it and ends up verifying. It's maddening for sure, because how can anyone reasonably go against a huge consensus? Unless, of course, we can easily see the mid/upper level synoptics NOT supporting the consensus models.
RAP 17Z RUN DEV BEGINS HR 18
WITH CLOSED CIRULATION (WEAK)
JUST NORTH OFFSHORE CUBA
7 AM TUSEDAY MORNING

we lost Classic.wunderground today... i don't know where anything is.. sense of abandonment setting in, everything around me is strange and unwelcoming.
remember when everything was visible like a transparent dashboard of options!!! those were the days :/
Quoting 80. Patrap:

Hurricane Preparation 2015





One trick to preserve your freezer longer is to freeze brine concentrate in plastic bottles and fill any empty space in the freezer with it. I use 0.5L plastic water bottles and make a mix of 1 pound of salt to 1 gallon of water. I put green food coloring in the water to make it distinct from other frozen liquids. This freezes at -7C (19-20F). You want as much of the freezer as possible full of solid phase fluid, not air. My experience is that higher concentrate brine does not reliably freeze in a home freezer and you absolutely want it in solid phase.


Quoting 96. nash36:



I've said it before, and I think it bears repeating....I would NOT be surprised in the least if the ECMWF ends up being right, standing all alone, as the other models walk away in shame. Lol. In all seriousness, it has happened before. It's rare, but we've seen an entire camp of models screw the pooch, while one model sticks with it and ends up verifying. It's maddening for sure, because how can anyone reasonably go against a huge consensus? Unless, of course, we can easily see the mid/upper level synoptics NOT supporting the consensus models.


It looks the Euro may be in for a major bust here.

Looks to me we should see something form tomorrow very near SE FL and may even come ashore for awhile near the Vero Beach/Fort Pierce area before lifting NNE toward you as potentially a Strong TS.

Quoting 99. Minnemike:

we lost Classic.wunderground today... i don't know where anything is.. sense of abandonment setting in, everything around me is strange and unwelcoming.
remember when everything was visible like a transparent dashboard of options!!! those were the days :/



Vent windows in cars, Guages rather than idiot lights, knobs to control the TV, appliances with control levers and dials rather than electronic buttons, human beings rather than computers at the other end of the support line. Miss them all. I particularly despise remotes.

Quoting 99. Minnemike:

we lost Classic.wunderground today... i don't know where anything is.. sense of abandonment setting in, everything around me is strange and unwelcoming.
remember when everything was visible like a transparent dashboard of options!!! those were the days :/



all still here mike
link to site map
bookmark it
and everything u need is here
if not ask I will help u

Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GO DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
RELATIVELY DRY LOW- LEVELS HAVE PRECLUDED ANY PCPN. FEEL ANY SHWRS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. MAIN WEATHER-MAKER OF THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN VICINITY OF CUBA...WILL BEGIN
NORTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT. THUS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF BAHAMAS AND CUBA WILL BE SPREADING NORTH/WEST TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA. SINCE LOW PRESSURE HASNT DISTINCTLY FORMED YET...ITS
TRACK AND FUTURE STRENGTH ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN. 12Z GFS NOW SENDS
TRACK A BIT CLOSER TO FLORIDA COAST...SO CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY HAS INCREASED. EXPECT FAIRLY TIGHT
PCPN GRADIENT...WITH GREATEST HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG
ATLANTIC COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH LOPRES FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM SW TO
NE. TEMPS WILL BE REGULATED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...SO
EXPECT MODEST DIURNAL TREND AND BELOW NORMAL MAXIMA/ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMA.
Quoting 102. georgevandenberghe:



Vent windows in cars, Guages rather than idiot lights, knobs to control the TV, appliances with control levers and dials rather than electronic buttons, human beings rather than computers at the other end of the support line. Miss them all. I particularly despise remotes.




your call is important to us please remain on the line and one of our robot representatives will be with you shortly

Pacific Wave Sweeps Away West Coasters, Carves New Coastline
Examiner, May 4, 2015 8:08 AM MST
At least three people have been killed, hundreds have fled homes and dozens of rescues have been made after powerful high waves unleashed wrath along the Pacific coast of California and Latin America from Mexico to Chile. In Panama, one person was swept away by strong waves, prompting an alert from authorities. In Mexico a man drowned on Acapulco's beach. ...
North, Central and South America Pacific coasters hit with waves over 4m high have struggled for survival as their sea-side homes were battered and their street flooded, including Mexico's resort city Acapulco. In the Chilean city of Valparaiso a European tourist was swept away and another person was injured. ...
Only days after a killer Australian storm hit with 50 feet waves, a New Zealand storm churned the giant waves across the Pacific at approximately 30 miles per hour. It pounded America's west coast, including along the Southern California coastline, according to the National Weather Service. Dangerous rip currents drove waves 16-to18 feet along parts of California. ...

Whole article see link above.
Thanks for the good read Bob! Also thanks Levi and others for your input - really enjoy reading other people's analysis of the potential system! Hopefully it'll bring some much needed rain to south Florida and to parts of Georgia & Alabama that are currently abnormally dry. But it may cause some flooding as it looks like it'll meander around a bit along the southeast coast. Hopefully it'll be nothing more than a weak subtropical/tropical storm.

Looks like the West Pacific is going to be adding two more majors to the list of its already very impressive tropical cyclone season! To think that the season doesn't really begin to pick up until late June/early July.

Weather here is rather wet today and chilly. Things will stay like that for a few days it looks like, but next week looks to be warm and dry (Temperatures up to 18-19C - a couple degrees above average) which'll be great. :) Sadly the UK will not see the wave of Caribbean weather that's currently spreading across Europe.
Getting dry in DC metro area with very high evaporation rates. Dewpoints in the 40s, temps in the 80s and a breeze.
Thunderstorms are in the forecast tomorrow and wednesday but I won't trust it til it's in the guage.

Harvest in the lower 48 will hurt this year if this doesn't change fast and will only worsen for the corn belt if El Nino develops.

inches from normal.



percent of normal.

Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:



It looks the Euro may be in for a major bust here.

Looks to me we should see something form tomorrow very near SE FL and may even come ashore for awhile near the Vero Beach/Fort Pierce area before lifting NNE toward you as potentially a Strong TS.




Not gonna lie....if we're gonna get anything, a weak TS is doable. It would certainly fill the water tables. If it's gonna be a crappy weekend, may as well go all out and get a TS or STS out of it.
12Z JMA takes this low right up the East Coast of FL and into Jacksonville then inland into Georgia.



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (1506)
3:00 AM JST May 5 2015
==========================
Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (992 hPa) located at 9.6N 139.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 10.0N 138.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 10.5N 136.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.8N 133.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
12Z NAVGEM goes right up the East Coast of FL or just offshore and makes landfall in SC. Interesting as I am seeing a lot of models bend this system NW at day 4


Quoting 90. nash36:



It appears the ECMWF is depicting a much weaker EC ridge. Idk, Scott. The ECMWF was pretty solid with TC formation over the last couple of years. Conversely, the GFS has been crapping the rack. Having said that, if every model stays consistent with the WWD track, leaving only the ECMWF that far east, then it will most likely be discounted. Discounting the ECMWF will make NHC cringe. Lol.


The ECMWF is a little wishy-washy sometimes with TC genesis, it's almost like it purposely tends to get cold feet once the other models start sniffing it out. It's better once a closed low develops.
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:

12Z NAVGEM goes right up the East Coast of FL or just offshore and makes landfall in SC. Interesting as I am seeing a lot of models bend this system NW at day 4





NAVGEM came down in intensity as well. No question, this will be a fun one to forecast! Throw in that amplifying blocking ridge, we could have a meanderer.
Addition to post #106.




Video in the second part.


To



CMC
The boy of 8 years old saved by father (that died trying to save him) died today in the morning. With this the tornado kills 3 in Brazil.
So the Tornado in Xanxere (Brazil) and Myanmar became the deadliest tornado in the World until today, May 4th 2015.
Quoting 117. JrWeathermanFL:



To



CMC


Agree with the comment below that we will not have a good handle on the potential outcome (locations with the possible direct impact of the core), until the low develops and recon closes off the circulation; then the models will re-initiate as to the actual trajectory downstream. Will only note that wind fields are quite a bit larger with a sub-tropical storm so it will probably result in very gusty conditions all along the SE Florida Coast/Bahamas and significant beach erosion along the way. If it meanders around, then take that erosion up the coast into Georgia and the Carolinas.
And if the core happens to meander over the Gulf Stream for any significant periods of time, we could get a possible transition to warm cored TS...........................Then nothing until mid-August........................... :)
Quoting 100. georgevandenberghe:




One trick to preserve your freezer longer is to freeze brine concentrate in plastic bottles and fill any empty space in the freezer with it. I use 0.5L plastic water bottles and make a mix of 1 pound of salt to 1 gallon of water. I put green food coloring in the water to make it distinct from other frozen liquids. This freezes at -7C (19-20F). You want as much of the freezer as possible full of solid phase fluid, not air. My experience is that higher concentrate brine does not reliably freeze in a home freezer and you absolutely want it in solid phase.





What's the purpose of freezing brine? Water...salt or not...can only get as cold as the environment it's in. It would seem to me that freezing fresh water at least gives you some potable water when it melts.
Quoting 121. weathermanwannabe:

And if the core happens to meander over the Gulf Stream for any significant periods of time, we could get a possible transition to warm cored TS...........................Then nothing until mid-August........................... :)


Sadly, there's probably alot of truth in that statement. Could be the most excitement we see for months.
124. RayT
Well, considering the drought situation in florida, a minimal tropical storm could be a good thing. Lets hope they get some much needed rain.

Quoting 123. nash36:



Sadly, there's probably alot of truth in that statement. Could be the most excitement we see for months.
Quoting 122. cdarney:



What's the purpose of freezing brine? Water...salt or not...can only get as cold as the environment it's in. It would seem to me that freezing fresh water at least gives you some potable water when it melts.

Think making ice cream


Tampa Bay area. Looking very dry during a time when rain is most helpful for soon to be crunchy lawns.
Quoting 122. cdarney:



What's the purpose of freezing brine? Water...salt or not...can only get as cold as the environment it's in. It would seem to me that freezing fresh water at least gives you some potable water when it melts.


Solid water requires a lot of heat to transition to liquid phase. While melting it will keep the freezer temperature near the melting temperature. For fresh water this is near 0C and your frozen stuff will soften or slowly thaw. Brine melts at a lower temperature so your frozen stuff will stay frozen for longer. It takes about 1Kcal to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water 1C. It takes about 80Kcal to melt a kilogram of ice. The brine solution will keep the freezer at a colder temperature during the long melting period. If you plot the temperature in a powerless freezer it will rise steadily with time until stuff starts to melt, then latent heat of fusion is absorbed keeping the temperature near constant until the stuff has melted, then it rises steadily but at a decreasing rate until it has come to equilibrium with the room.
Quoting 91. StormTrackerScott:



Western solution seems likely given the recent appearance of the sat. images. GFS, CMC, & NAM are all in agreement while the Euro is several hundred miles east. LOL
Hello Scott. Conditions over the Atlantic near the S.E.coast are favorable for development....and possibly a significant storm. Hurricanes are very rare in May, but have happened. If cool dry air from the north doesnt get involved, early season hurricane..?....I believe that is the area that will produce this year, and has had early formations for the past 8 years or so.
130. JRRP
Quoting 124. RayT:

Well, considering the drought situation in florida, a minimal tropical storm could be a good thing. Lets hope they get some much needed rain.




we have plenty of water.. it is polluted and cannot go into the Florida Everglades.
Most recent upper level chart for the tutt cell per cimss; can't miss making the comment (in light of severe weather season in the US) that the area where the most convection is firing on this disturbance is inside that "hook echo" looking curve on this chart..... :) That is basically the area where the low should consolidate over the next few days.



Congrats BTW to our college bloggers whether they graduate this month or finish another year; FSU had graduation weekend on Saturday here in town so suspect that a few bloggers (Jedkins comes to mind) might be on the way home for a break before the summer term or the Fall.
Only May and we're watching already. Hmm? Not much to worry about I don't think.

No more "classic" view, but this isn't too bad. I'm sure I'll get used to it.

Rick
Quoting 127. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area. Looking very dry during a time when rain is most helpful for soon to be crunchy lawns.


I'm not sure if we'll get any rain here in S.W. Florida out of this. We've been going a month with little to no rain and then we get a decent rain. Then we go another month with little to no rain before we get another decent rain.
13" below normal last year and we're averaging 2-4" (Naples -4.13) below normal for 2015.
April was a wet month pretty much everywhere in Florida except S.W. Florida.
weathermanwannabe RULES!! Thank you next semester I will graduate from MSU. I will like to take a SKYWARN class with you if you are interested
Quoting 133. weathermanwannabe:

Congrats BTW to our college bloggers whether they graduate this month or finish another year; FSU had graduation weekend on Saturday here in town so suspect that a few bloggers (Jedkins comes to mind) might be on the way home for a break before the summer term or the Fall.


Just went to a graduation in Jacksonville, FL for a family member... X2 to your well wishes and congrats.
FYI, Wunderground blogger Steve Gregory weighs in on the potential subtropical/tropical system in his latest post.

Bob H.
Most of the intense convection is off to the East and towards the turks and caicos on the SE Bahamas side. Thus most of the wind and precipitation is located there as well. It seems the subtropical Jetstream is pushing it in that direstion. That Ridge to the North MUST be and stay Strong for East Coast of Florida to have any chance of Tropical Storm force or Depression type weather
145. vis0
last time something in my room acted up we had the tornadoes "outbreak" its acting up but not as step of a curve AS i read it. look for energy beggining to coalesce
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041526
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 04 MAY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....................(CORRECTION FOR DATE)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 06/1500Z
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

The GFS is awesome it has a storm right off of Palm Beach county headed North and then effecting the Carolinas. However the Euro has the storm much farther east, and I tend to agree with that solution because the latest satellite resolution shows convection advecting that way. I will show GFS though
148. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Cod State
D&T:: on AniGif
IMAGERY TYPE:: Vis
SUBJECT:: mass of clouds SW / S of Florida (North of Cuba) (Over the Keys)
On the accuweather extended forecast, Charleston's Thursday/Friday mentions the risk of rip currents and high surf, yet for Wilmington it mentions the possible threat of a tropical system. Depending on if this meanders off the coast yet hugs along it or if it goes straight into SC, the Lowcountry I would think has the best chance of seeing heavier rain and stronger breezes if this develops into a subtropical system, which is what the Wunderground forecast shows for both cities on those days. We shall see.

Quoting 144. WeatherConvoy:

Most of the intense convection is off to the East and towards the turks and caicos on the SE Bahamas side. Thus most of the wind and precipitation is located there as well. It seems the subtropical Jetstream is pushing it in that direstion. That Ridge to the North MUST be and stay Strong for East Coast of Florida to have any chance of Tropical Storm force or Depression type weather


That also tells me this is more likely to not be solely a warm-core system. I think the biggest questions of the system are 1) how strong and 2) where will it go, the latter of the two is probably the most uncertain because of the weak steering flow.
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



all still here mike
link to site map
bookmark it
and everything u need is here
if not ask I will help u

Link


Well, I guess you'll have to be the help system WU doesn't have. Where's the mail? I can't find it with the site map. Am I going to have to look at all the HTML code whenever I quote someone who has a link in their message? Why is the quote and my reply all in bold in the message box?
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html thank you.

NOTE: NRL Pages offline tomorrow 05/05 from 0600-0900 PST due to network maintenance.

Seems like everything is spinning right over Cuba. Where is this Low supposed to be? or form at?
Quoting 152. sar2401:


Well, I guess you'll have to be the help system WU doesn't have. Where's the mail? I can't find it with the site map. Am I going to have to look at all the HTML code whenever I quote someone who has a link in their message? Why is the quote and my reply all in bold in the message box?


Click on the Head, top/Right.....
I prefer the classic version much more.
This new version really sucks!
Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



That's the Good Ole El-Nino at work as it is enhancing this Sub Tropical Jet ATTM.


Scott what would you have to talk about if not for El-Nino??

Cooling off a bit, Time for May Grey.... 59.6F/75.4F today...
159. 882MB
I expect this radar to really light up late tonight, into tomorrow.



As per satellite, system looks ragged, but that will change as all the ingredients come into play late tonight and tomorrow, when surface low develops, which will probably not be until late tomorrow afternoon. I see a hint of a vortex forming somewhere south of the western tip of Cuba, looking by visible satellite, we shall see. check in later guys :)





Quoting 152. sar2401:


Well, I guess you'll have to be the help system WU doesn't have. Where's the mail? I can't find it with the site map. Am I going to have to look at all the HTML code whenever I quote someone who has a link in their message? Why is the quote and my reply all in bold in the message box?

Sar, just activate your former Search and Rescue-skills to find your way through the wilderness of NUWU, lol. This will keep your grey matter on the go for a while ... I've sent you a mail which will flash the entrance to WU-mail.

Thunderstorms now invading France with the tropical airmasses and the accompanying jetstream (see post #70):

Quoting 152. sar2401:


Well, I guess you'll have to be the help system WU doesn't have. Where's the mail? I can't find it with the site map. Am I going to have to look at all the HTML code whenever I quote someone who has a link in their message? Why is the quote and my reply all in bold in the message box?
A good question. The bold's been that way since ever, and may be a help for some people to better see what they are typing. I don't know. The all-bold does go bye-bye on preview, and you can bold things like I just did in your quote, and the comment comes out looking fine. And, yeah, the code for links and images in a quote will show up in your comment box and the corresponding links and graphics will be in the quote in your comment. Unless you remove code from quotes- which some commenters do.
CIMSS-analyzed lower convergence maxima just off the northern coast of eastern Cuba is really helping to generate intense convection that may continue to develop over that area.


Quoting 160. barbamz:


Sar, just activate your former Search and Rescue-skills to find your way through the wilderness of NUWU, lol. This will keep your grey matter on the go for a while ... I've sent you a mail which will flash the entrance to WU-mail.

Thunderstorms now invading France with the tropical airmasses and the accompanying jetstream (see post #70):


Thanks, Barb. I just replied to your mail. It looks like the little man doesn't start working until your get an email. Do you see your text in bold below the quote, which is also in bold? It now takes up almost my entire 25" monitor screen just to view your message. Even on my new computer, my free RAM is starting to diminish again, although not as quickly as it did before. It looks like replying to a quoted message that contains graphics is what really starts to suck my RAM. What a mess.
Oh, yeah. When yu have mail in nu wu, a orange envelope appears next to the bobblehead. That bobblehead hides a bunch of important things (add: accessed from a dropdown menu revealed by clicking mr/ms bobblehead.) The grindy-wheel will give you access to exciting settings like F or C, Best forecast vs. NWS forecast and more!
Quoting 158. PedleyCA:


Cooling off a bit, Time for May Grey.... 59.6F/75.4F today...


May Gray/June Gloom are my favorites. Keeps it nice and cool in the valley.
anyone in fl. get any rain today? nothing here e cen fl.
Quoting 167. islander101010:

anyone in fl. get any rain today? nothing here e cen fl.


nope.. but I am about to go out on the water for some acoustical research.. bet "I" get wet....
Looks can often be very deceiving with a proto-storm as to where the strongest convection is situated and the ultimate location of formation of the organized low. For now anyway, that convection North of Eastern Cuba is a good candidate if the convection continues to fire in that general area over the next 12 hours to help bring the pressures down a bit.  Hopefully the folks with any boats in the Southern Bahamas have taken precautions to hunker down. 
18z GFS is further E, weaker, and bends back to GA/SC at the end of the run.
Here is the slow drift to the North from the Guantanamo Base doppler:

Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar image from the Guantanamo Bay Cuba radar and current weather warnings
Quoting 106. barbamz:

Pacific Wave Sweeps Away West Coasters, Carves New Coastline
Examiner, May 4, 2015 8:08 AM MST
At least three people have been killed, hundreds have fled homes and dozens of rescues have been made after powerful high waves unleashed wrath along the Pacific coast of California and Latin America from Mexico to Chile. In Panama, one person was swept away by strong waves, prompting an alert from authorities. In Mexico a man drowned on Acapulco's beach. ...
North, Central and South America Pacific coasters hit with waves over 4m high have struggled for survival as their sea-side homes were battered and their street flooded, including Mexico's resort city Acapulco. In the Chilean city of Valparaiso a European tourist was swept away and another person was injured. ...
Only days after a killer Australian storm hit with 50 feet waves, a New Zealand storm churned the giant waves across the Pacific at approximately 30 miles per hour. It pounded America's west coast, including along the Southern California coastline, according to the National Weather Service. Dangerous rip currents drove waves 16-to18 feet along parts of California. ...

Whole article see link above.


Link Mark Healy Puerto Escondido. Sunday May 3rd. Click link for video.
Keep in mind that Mark can hold his breath for over 5 minutes....

Some things in general to watch for tonight in regards to the area of convection over Cuba/Bahamas. Annotations mine. Not official.

Another cold shot for New England.?

Quoting 174. hydrus:

Another cold shot for New England.?

Noooooooo I'm going to Hershey P.A on the 15th.I don't want it to be cold and dreary when I'm wondering in the park.Last time I went to a amusement park and it was rainy I got sick.
Where's the rain for my area? WTH!
177. MahFL
Quoting 169. weathermanwannabe:

Hopefully the folks with any boats in the Southern Bahamas have taken precautions to hunker down.


Hunker down for 30 mph winds ?
Quoting 170. nash36:

18z GFS is further E, weaker, and bends back to GA/SC at the end of the run.

The only thing I'll say is that models are notoriously bad until there's an actual surface low. Once a low does form, it's going to get trapped by the large ridge the west and north. It's going to start meandering, and models are really bad about being able to forecast an accurate track. From Wednesday until Sunday, the models are going to do a lot flip-flopping.
Quoting 167. islander101010:

anyone in fl. get any rain today? nothing here e cen fl.


about three drops here in St. Augustine, wait that was a bird. Never mind 0 here

strongest vorticity near the Yucatan channel
182. JRRP
Quoting 176. Gearsts:

Where's the rain for my area? WTH!


no tienes idea cuanto odio ver esa imagen jejeje
Quoting 178. sar2401:


The only thing I'll say is that models are notoriously bad until there's an actual surface low. Once a low does form, it's going to get trapped by the large ridge the west and north. It's going to start meandering, and models are really bad about being able to forecast an accurate track. From Wednesday until Sunday, the models are going to do a lot flip-flopping.


Agreed, Sar. We should have a much better idea by Wednesday.
Quoting 178. sar2401:


The only thing I'll say is that models are notoriously bad until there's an actual surface low. Once a low does form, it's going to get trapped by the large ridge the west and north. It's going to start meandering, and models are really bad about being able to forecast an accurate track. From Wednesday until Sunday, the models are going to do a lot flip-flopping.


What an age we live in.
Quoting 177. MahFL:



Hunker down for 30 mph winds ?
Sure, you could be struck by paper cups and dead leaves..:)
Quoting 175. washingtonian115:

Noooooooo I'm going to Hershey P.A on the 15th.I don't want it to be cold and dreary when I'm wondering in the park.Last time I went to a amusement park and it was rainy I got sick.
I was there in 73 or 74..The roller coaster is great...and old.
Quoting 187. presslord:



We're gonna be riding her out on my boat at the Ashley Marina...Join us..


Sweet! Sounds like a good time.

Shear is on a decreasing trend near the future 90L and future Ana.
191. MahFL
The radar already shows a broad circulation.

Quoting 182. JRRP:


no tienes idea cuanto odio ver esa imagen jejeje


Parece un gran desierto.

Looks like a big dessert.
Noted hurricane experts, Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach released their findings for the 2015 season.

Dr. Gray's forecast calls for 7 named storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one major hurricane. From his web site.

Looks to be another slow year. However, forecasters have been wrong before. Even that one cane can be very "busy" if its in your front yard!
194. beell
RE: The sub-tropical potential off the southeast coast.

Still a noticeable baroclinic tilt from bottom to top in this evenings 18Z GFS for Thursday morning.


850 mb low


300 mb low

Lower levels are showing some warming but not extending into the mid-levels very well yet.
This weekend's model runs showed a larger and warmer midlevel core than the current ying/yang kinda thing shown here. Needs more time in the oven.


500 mb temps
Quoting 188. hydrus:

I was there in 73 or 74..The roller coaster is great...and old.

There are a bunch of coasters there now.
CONUS Hurricane Sector Image, un gridded,raw,

Outflow..

Hmm .......Atlantic
201. JRRP
Quoting 192. Tropicsweatherpr:



Parece un gran desierto.

Looks like a big dessert.

yeah
202. JRRP
TSUNAMI WATCH:

New Alert: Tsunami Watch (Pacific Ocean) - New Ireland Region Papua New Guinea - 7.5 Severity Level: WATCH
A Tsunami Watch has been issued by NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI for NEW IRELAND REGION PAPUA NEW GUINEA at May 05, 01:50:00 GMT.
Message:
000
WEPA40 PHEB 050150
TSUPAC
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0150 UTC TUE MAY 5 2015
...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****
THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.
NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.
**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 7.5
* ORIGIN TIME 0144 UTC MAY 5 2015
* COORDINATES 5.6 SOUTH 152.1 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEW IRELAND REGION PAPUA NEW GUINEA

EVALUATION
----------
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.5 OCCURRED IN
THE NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA AT 0144 UTC ON
TUESDAY MAY 5 2015.
* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM OF
THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.

TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------
* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------
* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN EVALUATION...
PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.
* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------
* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITH AN ETA WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
------------------------------------------------- -----------
RABAUL PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.2S 152.3E 0204 05/05
AMUN PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6.0S 154.7E 0210 05/05
FALAMAE SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.4S 155.6E 0216 05/05
WOODLARK ISLAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA 9.0S 152.9E 0216 05/05
KIETA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6.1S 155.6E 0234 05/05
LAE PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6.8S 147.0E 0237 05/05
ULAMONA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5.0S 151.3E 0239 05/05
MUNDA SOLOMON ISLANDS 8.4S 157.2E 0247 05/05
PANGGOE SOLOMON ISLANDS 6.9S 157.2E 0248 05/05
KAVIENG PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.5S 150.7E 0258 05/05
MADANG PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5.2S 145.8E 0310 05/05
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 9.3S 160.0E 0317 05/05
GHATERE SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.8S 159.2E 0320 05/05
MANUS ISLAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.0S 147.5E 0323 05/05
KIRAKIRA SOLOMON ISLANDS 10.4S 161.9E 0336 05/05
AUKI SOLOMON ISLANDS 8.8S 160.6E 0339 05/05
WEWAK PAPUA NEW GUINEA 3.5S 143.6E 0348 05/05
SANTA CRUZ ISLA SOLOMON ISLANDS 10.9S 165.9E 0409 05/05
VANIMO PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.6S 141.3E 0410 05/05
JAYAPURA INDONESIA 2.4S 140.8E 0414 05/05
PORT MORESBY PAPUA NEW GUINEA 9.3S 146.9E 0421 05/05
CHUUK ISLAND CHUUK 7.4N 151.8E 0424 05/05
POHNPEI ISLAND POHNPEI 7.0N 158.2E 0424 05/05
ESPERITU SANTO VANUATU 15.1S 167.3E 0425 05/05
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 0437 05/05
KOSRAE ISLAND KOSRAE 5.5N 163.0E 0440 05/05
WARSA INDONESIA 0.6S 135.8E 0507 05/05
CAIRNS AUSTRALIA 16.7S 145.8E 0510 05/05
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0512 05/05
ANATOM ISLAND VANUATU 20.2S 169.9E 0516 05/05
SAIPAN NORTHERN MARIANA 15.3N 145.8E 0517 05/05
YAP ISLAND YAP 9.5N 138.1E 0526 05/05
MANOKWARI INDONESIA 0.8S 134.2E 0526 05/05
KWAJALEIN MARSHALL ISLANDS 8.7N 167.7E 0528 05/05
ENIWETOK MARSHALL ISLANDS 11.4N 162.3E 0530 05/05
NOUMEA NEW CALEDONIA 22.3S 166.5E 0532 05/05
MAJURO MARSHALL ISLANDS 7.1N 171.4E 0543 05/05
FUNAFUTI ISLAND TUVALU 7.9S 178.5E 0550 05/05
SORONG INDONESIA 0.8S 131.1E 0556 05/05
MALAKAL PALAU 7.3N 134.5E 0605 05/05
BRISBANE AUSTRALIA 27.2S 153.3E 0607 05/05
MINAMITORISHIMA MINAMITORISHIMA 24.3N 154.0E 0614 05/05
BEREBERE INDONESIA 2.5N 128.7E 0616 05/05
WAKE ISLAND WAKE ISLAND 19.3N 166.6E 0617 05/05
TARAWA ISLAND KIRIBATI 1.5N 173.0E 0622 05/05
PATANI INDONESIA 0.4N 128.8E 0630 05/05
FUTUNA ISLAND WALLIS AND FUTUN 14.3S 178.2W 0642 05/05
GEME INDONESIA 4.6N 126.8E 0644 05/05
SYDNEY AUSTRALIA 33.9S 151.4E 0649 05/05
HOWLAND ISLAND HOWLAND AND BAKE 0.6N 176.6W 0650 05/05
WALLIS ISLAND WALLIS AND FUTUN 13.3S 176.3W 0650 05/05
CHICHI JIMA JAPAN 27.0N 142.3E 0652 05/05
SUVA FIJI 18.1S 178.4E 0652 05/05
DAVAO PHILIPPINES 6.8N 125.7E 0655 05/05
TABUKAN TENGAH INDONESIA 3.6N 125.6E 0656 05/05
NUKUNONU ISLAND TOKELAU 9.2S 171.8W 0709 05/05
KANTON ISLAND KIRIBATI 2.8S 171.7W 0713 05/05
RAOUL ISLAND KERMADEC ISLANDS 29.2S 177.9W 0721 05/05
APIA SAMOA 13.8S 171.8W 0726 05/05
GLADSTONE AUSTRALIA 23.8S 151.4E 0727 05/05
NORTH CAPE NEW ZEALAND 34.4S 173.3E 0728 05/05
LEGASPI PHILIPPINES 13.2N 123.8E 0731 05/05
PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA 14.3S 170.7W 0735 05/05
NUKUALOFA TONGA 21.0S 175.2W 0741 05/05
KATSUURA JAPAN 35.1N 140.3E 0743 05/05
HACHIJO JIMA JAPAN 33.1N 139.8E 0745 05/05
PALANAN PHILIPPINES 17.1N 122.6E 0745 05/05

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST FOR
MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.
* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.
* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.
* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.
ESPERITU SANTO VANUATU 15.1S 167.3E 0425 05/05

More terror.
What I miss about WU isn't the classic view, its the classic view of the bloggers... 'Specially here.
I used to be able to come to this blog and get reliable information and discussion. Haven't been able to get that in a while.
Previous discussion... /issued 821 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015/

Aviation...
shower coverage looks to be low the first half of the night before
increasing towards dawn and especially during the day
Tuesday...when thunderstorms will be possible in locally heavy
rainfall as well. Kept vcsh in for tonight then prob30 of MVFR
+tsra associated with a northward moving trough Tuesday. IFR will be
possible as well...though brief. Gusty winds of 20-25 knots are
expected again on Tuesday...locally higher in +tsra. /Gregoria

Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015/

Synopsis...
low pressure developing east of Florida will bring showers with
heavy rain potential early this week. Late week...rain chances
will go down as the low moves away from the region.

Short term /tonight-Wednesday night/...
moisture has been gradually increasing through the day...but
relatively dry low- levels have precluded any precipitation. Feel any showers
will hold off until after sunset. Main weather-maker of the
week...low pressure organizing in vicinity of Cuba...will begin
northward drift tonight. Thus...ongoing thunderstorms encompassing
most of Bahamas and Cuba will be spreading north/west toward South
Florida. Since low pressure hasnt distinctly formed yet...its
track and future strength are quite uncertain. 12z GFS now sends
track a bit closer to Florida coast...so confidence in at least
locally heavy rainfall Tuesday has increased. Expect fairly tight
precipitation gradient...with greatest heavy rain/flood potential along
Atlantic coast. Little change in rain chances Tuesday night...but
with lopres forecast to begin lifting northward away from the
region by Wednesday...activity should begin to wane from SW to
NE. Temperatures will be regulated by extensive clouds/showers...so
expect modest diurnal trend and below normal maxima/above normal
minima.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday night/...
for the latter half of the week and this weekend...diurnal
convective regime takes hold. Relatively light synoptic flow
should favor easy sea-breeze intrusions...meaning shower/thunderstorm
chances are greatest over interior.
Quoting 181. presslord:

Has Ana humped the ridge, yet?

Not very funny 8 hours ago in post #32....which was removed.
A bad joke stinks the first time around and stinks worse if it's been been sitting out for 8 hours.
000
WEPA40 PHEB 050219
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0216 UTC TUE MAY 5 2015

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...

NOTE UPDATED EARTHQUAKE DEPTH

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS ... UPDATED
---------------------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.5
* ORIGIN TIME 0144 UTC MAY 5 2015
* COORDINATES 5.5 SOUTH 152.0 EAST
* DEPTH 50 KM / 31 MILES
* LOCATION NEW BRITAIN REGION PAPUA NEW GUINEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.4 OCCURRED IN
THE NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA AT 0144 UTC ON
TUESDAY MAY 5 2015.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

PAPUA NEW GUINEA.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED AS NECESSARY
IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN EVALUATION...
PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN A REGION WITH FORECAST TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES OF
0.3 METERS AND GREATER ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES
MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A
TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN WAVES CAN BE
FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
KAVIENG PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.5S 150.7E 0258 05/05


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST FOR
MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

Quoting 133. weathermanwannabe:

Congrats BTW to our college bloggers whether they graduate this month or finish another year; FSU had graduation weekend on Saturday here in town so suspect that a few bloggers (Jedkins comes to mind) might be on the way home for a break before the summer term or the Fall.




Thanks. I still have one more year and provided my university always has commencement on the first saturday of may, the countdown to may 7th, 2016 begins! :D
Quoting 208. CosmicEvents:


Not very funny 8 hours ago in post #32....which was removed.
A bad joke stinks the first time around and stinks worse if it's been been sitting out for 8 hours.


Oh c'mon, Cosmic. It's offbeat humor. Man....we are really too politically correct nowadays.
Quoting 211. nash36:



Oh c'mon, Cosmic. It's offbeat humor. Man....we are really too politically correct nowadays.

hi Nash...good to see you for another season.
It's not about being politically correct......and I'm pro-humor, especially in a place like this that's supposed to be social media.
.
It's just a bad joke.
Once removed and then repeated.
I wunder what would happen to you, me, or any other member except for the 3-4 that seem to be immune.
213. JRRP
Quoting 212. CosmicEvents:


hi Nash...good to see you for another season.
It's not about being politically correct......and I'm pro-humor, especially in a place like this that's supposed to be social media.
.
It's just a bad joke.
Once removed and then repeated.
I wunder what would happen to you, me, or any other member except for the 3-4 that seem to be immune.


Good to see you too, Cosmic.

Honestly, I would love to believe nothing would happen to anyone. Nothing rubs me raw more than "moderators" who disallow humor, and a little offbeat discussion. Now, if someone is being vulgar, then that is another story, as this is a family site. I guess I'm old-fashioned. Live and let live.

Anyhoo.....back to the "mystery storm."
Quoting 208. CosmicEvents:


Not very funny 8 hours ago in post #32....which was removed.
A bad joke stinks the first time around and stinks worse if it's been been sitting out for 8 hours.
As bad as smelly feet?
Quoting 213. JRRP:




I will "LOL" if the 2015 hurricane season becomes active...

Remember, Gonzalo wasn't supposed to be a big deal for us and was supposed to struggle on its way to the Leeward Islands... LOL
Quoting 214. nash36:



Good to see you too, Cosmic.

Honestly, I would love to believe nothing would happen to anyone. Nothing rubs me raw more than "moderators" who disallow humor, and a little offbeat discussion. Now, if someone is being vulgar, then that is another story, as this is a family site. I guess I'm old-fashioned. Live and let live.

Anyhoo.....back to the "mystery storm."
moderators had nothing to do with it
it was flagged out by the comm and there are ladies and young children that traverse the blog and a little consideration goes a long way but that's just me

carry on
218. flsky
I got about 4 drops this afternoon when I walked my dog in Ponce Inlet.
Quoting 167. islander101010:

anyone in fl. get any rain today? nothing here e cen fl.
Mea culpa...mea culpa...mea maximum culpa.....been a long time since I visited here...now I remember why...
220. txjac
Quoting 217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

moderators had nothing to do with it
it was flagged out by the comm and there are ladies and young children that traverse the blog and a little consideration goes a long way besides a individual in a position of great standing should chose there words more carefully no
I like to see those kind of comments made at one of there gatherings bet it would not go over very well

but that's just me

carry on



You know what the crazy thing is ...back when I was really, really new, I remember where that phrase started.
I used to go through all the models and posted screen shots looking for "it" before I knew that it was being used as a joke many a time ...naive
Portlight-Nepal Earthquake Fund
Supporting the disability community in Nepal


Your Helping us make a difference,

Thank you very much,



People helping People.

Quoting 217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

moderators had nothing to do with it
it was flagged out by the comm and there are ladies and young children that traverse the blog and a little consideration goes a long way besides a individual in a position of great standing should chose there words more carefully no
I like to see those kind of comments made at one of there gatherings bet it would not go over very well

but that's just me

carry on



*wishing I hadn't forayed into this river, but since I'm here....*

Keeper- Maybe I've become apathetic to what people think is appropriate, and what they don't. Quite honestly, those that think comments like that are "clutch the pearls" moments, aren't awake. You would be AMAZED at what language is being used in Elementary schools, let alone something innocuous and innocent as what typically passes here. As to my moderator comment.....that was aimed at other sites, specifically CNN, where free speech is pretty much gone. Wasn't meant for those of you here who moderate.

Just my $.02 for what it's worth.
223. ch2os
Quoting 167. islander101010:

anyone in fl. get any rain today? nothing here e cen fl.


Did get some light and fast moving drops here in Ft. Pierce just after 3pm. Won't mind a few showers as long as it clears out by Saturday for a family get together in Vero.
Quoting 219. presslord:

Mea culpa...mea culpa...mea maximum culpa.....been a long time since I visited here...now I remember why...


I here you, good sir. We used to be staples here, and not the kind you find at Kinko's. Lol....Now, sad as it is, I typically don't hop in unless there is a possible tropical threat to the CONUS. I remember the old days. Did it get out of hand then? Sure, it did at times. But I still remember them fondly.
Quoting 215. Barefootontherocks:

As bad as smelly feet?


Dat 'splains your barefootness.
Quoting 176. Gearsts:

Where's the rain for my area? WTH!

You live in an area now known as the Caribbean Desert. Remember the Sahara in the ancient days, it once was an Oasis, now it's a desert. Climate change has the power to do things like that.
Quoting 221. Patrap:

Portlight-Nepal Earthquake Fund
Supporting the disability community in Nepal


Your Helping us make a difference,

Thank you very much,



People helping People.


God Bless their hearts. What a sad thing to have happen to them. I wish them well in recovery and healing.
Quoting 222. nash36:



*wishing I hadn't forayed into this river, but since I'm here....*

Keeper- Maybe I've become apathetic to what people think is appropriate, and what they don't. Quite honestly, those that think comments like that are "clutch the pearls" moments, aren't awake. You would be AMAZED at what language is being used in Elementary schools, let alone something innocuous and innocent as what typically passes here. As to my moderator comment.....that was aimed at other sites, specifically CNN, where free speech is pretty much gone. Wasn't meant for those of you here who moderate.

Just my $.02 for what it's worth.
I have no problems with anyone more so for long term members and the short terms as well and believe me when I say taking action is the hardest thing I have too do and I don't always want too but it has to be done from time to time myself I always allow the comm to react first before I decide anything

its not easy for sure
I see that replacing a H with an P in the name of comedy is not appropriate around here anymore. The fact is there once was an infamous member of this community, commonly known as FW...Believed he could make up scientific theories and was the supreme being's gift to the forecasting world. Also had some other odd fancy's, but...My point was...

If you watch the NAM, which I am known to not be a fan of during tropical season, there will be no pumping of ridges or anything else...Looks to sit and spin.


00z 48 hr NAM



00Z 84 hr NAM

btw...Congrats on the new job Nash! I know not working the night time hours must be nice. I've graduated from 3rd to 2nd, so it's an improvement...but sure would be nice to get back to normal hours.
Quoting 229. StormJunkie:

I see that replacing a P with an H in the name of comedy is not appropriate around here anymore. The fact is there once was an infamous member of this community, commonly known as FW...Believed he could make up scientific theories and was the supreme being's gift to the forecasting world. Also had some other odd fancy's, but...My point was...

If you watch the NAM, which I am known to not be a fan of during tropical season, there will be no pumping of ridges or anything else...Looks to sit and spin.


00z 48 hr NAM



00Z 84 hr NAM




They're all gonna struggle until we at least have a closed duck fart to follow. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we wake tomorrow to find that the models completely drop it due to hostile upper-level winds. God knows we've seen that movie before. Even if this does develop into something, I don't believe we're going to see anything more than our typical rainy days around here.
"...If you watch the NAM, which I am known to not be a fan of during tropical season, there will be no pumping of ridges or anything else...Looks to sit and spin."

I agree, SJ. Even if Ana comes to life and gets named, she's not gonna know what to do with that ridge. And all I looked at to form that conclusion was a surface map.

Nevertheless... fun to have something to talk about in early May.

Quoting 225. N2TheWX:



Dat 'splains your barefootness.
Um. Do I know you? lpl=typo for lol
I don't know Nash. I'd be at least a little surprised if it were dropped. We are within 36 hrs of a closed low (per models), and there has been support for quite a few days now per the consensus. That said, I agree it is not likely it amounts to much more than a few breezy days, with those typical low level clouds swirling by. Couple of rain showers with a band or two that might move on shore depending on location. Really think the biggest threat could be rainfall in some locations. Trends have been that whatever it amounts to is going to hang out in the same location for several days. If it happens to be right along the coast line between Fl and Obx, some could see a fair amount of rain.
Quoting 230. StormJunkie:

btw...Congrats on the new job Nash! I know not working the night time hours must be nice. I've graduated from 3rd to 2nd, so it's an improvement...but sure would be nice to get back to normal hours.


Thanks, SJ. I happened pretty quickly. I marched in the day before, told my boss I'm done, and that was it. At first, I felt like I was having an out-of-body experience since I had put in five years of blood, sweat and tears into the organization. I came home that night, and after a couple of hours of reflection, realized I did what was best for my family.
Quoting 235. StormJunkie:

I don't know Nash. I'd be at least a little surprised if it were dropped. We are within 36 hrs of a closed low (per models), and there has been support for quite a few days now per the consensus. That said, I agree it is not likely it amounts to much more than a few breezy days, with those typical low level clouds swirling by. Couple of rain showers with a band or two that might move on shore depending on location. Really think the biggest threat could be rainfall in some locations. Trends have been that whatever it amounts to is going to hang out in the same location for several days. If it happens to be right along the coast line between Fl and Obx, some could see a fair amount of rain.


Ironically enough, I just went through my first EFAC exercise for HURCON conditions. Ok....full disclosure....I am at the Naval Weapons Station. Last Friday during a meeting, I casually mentioned the possibility of "sub-tropical" conditions later this week.
Its kind of embarrassing to have a developed "STS" in early May.

: )
i doubt this event will require any emergency responses
but then again, theres always somebody that has to get in the rough water
Quoting 210. TimTheWxMan:





Thanks. I still have one more year and provided my university always has commencement on the first saturday of may, the countdown to may 7th, 2016 begins! :D


Super-seniors and soon to be super-super seniors unite! Anyone? Ok...
I'll leave you with this...Dont Be That Somebody This Season
Quoting 205. OSHNBLU:

What I miss about WU isn't the classic view, its the classic view of the bloggers... 'Specially here.
I used to be able to come to this blog and get reliable information and discussion. Haven't been able to get that in a while.
I wish I could say you're wrong - but you're not. Many of the knowledgeable amateurs we used to have have now been replaced by...well...just amateurs. Even worse, a lot of arm flapping amateurs. There are still good ones left, but there's an awful lot chaff among the wheat.
Quoting 205. OSHNBLU:

What I miss about WU isn't the classic view, its the classic view of the bloggers... 'Specially here.
I used to be able to come to this blog and get reliable information and discussion. Haven't been able to get that in a while.


I'm relatively a newbie, actually relatively isn't the best word compared to many, but I generally learn a thing or two reading through the posts and the other weather blogs so I can't say anything about that. Maybe when cane season rolls around (and can be in full swing for a change) the school of Athens will come to life instead of Raphael talking to the canvas.
Quoting 243. sar2401:

I wish I could say you're wrong - but you're not. Many of the knowledgeable amateurs we used to have have now been replaced by...well...just amateurs. Even worse, a lot of arm flapping amateurs. There are still good ones left, but there's an awful lot chaff among the wheat.


There has always been a lot of "chaff among the wheat", so to speak. If you want more substance, post more substance, if you want more comedy, post more comedy, if you want more chest beating...Then beat your chest. Lot of things have changed about the blog over the years, but the jest is still the same. It's The Breakfast Club of weather fanatics...

GFS has shifted E in the early portion of the run. Going to make development more difficult with those cooler SSTs outside of the Gulf Stream.
It was Storm W that lost his mind when pumping the ridge phase was quoted!

Quoting 229. StormJunkie:

I see that replacing a H with an P in the name of comedy is not appropriate around here anymore. The fact is there once was an infamous member of this community, commonly known as FW...Believed he could make up scientific theories and was the supreme being's gift to the forecasting world. Also had some other odd fancy's, but...My point was...

If you watch the NAM, which I am known to not be a fan of during tropical season, there will be no pumping of ridges or anything else...Looks to sit and spin.


00z 48 hr NAM



00Z 84 hr NAM


248. 882MB




Quoting 247. swflurker:

It was Storm W that lost his mind when pumping the ridge phase was quoted!




Or Foot Walsh...How ever you recall the events.

Night all
Drum roll please...if Max is around or sees this post. I bring to you my prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

My numbers are based on an average of the following: weakest weak El Nino (1952), strongest weak El Nino (2006), weakest moderate El Nino (1951), strongest moderate El Nino (2009), weakest strong El Nino (1957), and strongest strong El Nino (1997). In addition to those years, I included 1971, 1972, 1982, and 1983, which were the 2nd and 3rd most strongest event on record. I also included the TSR, CSU, and TWC predictions, as well as the 1995-current average, and my personal best guess.

After calculating the average for all those years and predictions from different weather agencies. I came up with...

8 TS
4 H
2 MH

Quoting 140. Sfloridacat5:



I'm not sure if we'll get any rain here in S.W. Florida out of this. We've been going a month with little to no rain and then we get a decent rain. Then we go another month with little to no rain before we get another decent rain.
13" below normal last year and we're averaging 2-4" (Naples -4.13) below normal for 2015.
April was a wet month pretty much everywhere in Florida except S.W. Florida.


Models are are advertising the return of dewpoint depressions by by late next beek sw of this storm. In Fact by Friday, dewpoints should sink between the 40 and 50 degree mark between your area and mine(Sarasota)! A nice reprieve from Summertime humidity. I also think another East coast trough will set up shop later next week(according to some analogs).
252. 882MB
Radar filling in, as I said last night. Gusty showers moving onshore SE Florida.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (1506)
15:00 PM JST May 5 2015
==========================
Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (992 hPa) located at 9.7N 138.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 9.9N 137.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 10.9N 134.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 12.3N 131.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
254. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu product
D&T:: on mp4
Img type:: Low clouds/fog (coloured)
Subject:: UsofA Low in the SW, Storms center & WTF...let me spell it out Whats That Formation
http://youtu.be/dE4wRFSu1DI(596x316 as below)



Things that make you say "pffffffT".

Q:: If for a period of 5-6 months LOWs form over BAJA,CA. and move NW does (FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME) the windward side then become the eastern facing mountain range as the predominant wind flow for those 5-6 months is coming from the SE towards NW?


Reason:: If predominant means most of the time as in most common or conspicuous and the rest of the year (6 to 7 months) is divided between a lull in weather for 3 months so no predominant wind and a W to E predominant wind for 4 months then the predominant period for THAT YEAR is the 5 to 6 months SE towards NW flow?

apology if i mislead where the center might form of the "blip de la blob" off FL., might form as only posted one SW of Fl. forgot to post
Quoting 250. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Drum roll please...if Max is around or sees this post. I bring to you my prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

My numbers are based on an average of the following: weakest weak El Nino (1952), strongest weak El Nino (2006), weakest moderate El Nino (1951), strongest moderate El Nino (2009), weakest strong El Nino (1957), and strongest strong El Nino (1997). In addition to those years, I included 1971, 1972, 1982, and 1983, which were the 2nd and 3rd most strongest event on record. I also included the TSR, CSU, and TWC predictions, as well as the 1995-current average, and my personal best guess.

After calculating the average for all those years and predictions from different weather agencies. I came up with...

8 TS
4 H
2 MH


Well, that's a safe bet. Here,s a tip a gambler gave me at the greyhound track. Always bet on the dog who just gave a scat. The dog is slightly lighter, more comfortable, and completely focused on the plastic rabbit.
Quoting 252. 882MB:

Radar filling in, as I said last night. Gusty showers moving onshore SE Florida.


Entering favorable STT range. Still due west. Gonna have to come back through some portion of Florida, but it is just so cold here. I suspect a quick and windy exodus north.
257. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, LSU product
D&T:: on mp4
Img type:: WV (armageddon DOOM version...watch some news station use this when they need to scare folks)
SUBJECT:: Obs on Florida coasts

http://youtu.be/T9CnVr_4Trw(org782x554@600x424)



So many embers, which will nature breath on...if any... to ignite?
Feel free to laugh in an evil way, as VID plays.

Stay tuned to NOAA for any further watches & warnings.
261. ackee
I think the the Euro as been only model developing the low further East and show little development I think the Euro is very consistent and see pattern sometime well ahead of the beloved Gfs this system could be a early 2015 big win again for the Euro
262. beell

Friday afternoon's 500 mb temps from this morning's 06Z GFS.


Yesterday's 18Z 500 mb temps valid Thursday in comparison (from Post 194).

Looking better for ST designation but getting close to the beach
263. beell
Quoting 261. ackee:

I think the the Euro as been only model developing the low further East and show little development I think the Euro is very consistent and see pattern sometime well ahead of the beloved Gfs this system could be a early 2015 big win again for the Euro


If it does not stack, the ECMWF will probably be correct. The best upper diffluence would remain to the east. Not to kill a dead horse twice, but see Post 194
slow.mover
265. beell
dead horse beaten twice.
Maybe you like him, maybe not, but Storm W does know a lot about weather. Does have that ego thing working thou....
267. beell



(click graphic(s) for complete, model-specific phase evolution analysis pages)
Good Morning... a couple observations at the current conditions.

At 500MB... upper level low is starting to wrap up and get consolidated some as it starts to pull away from south FL:



At the SFC... I see indications based on reports that WND are starting to show signs of a possible weak SFC low attempting to take shape over the gulf stream. Will it make it, will remain to be seen:

Quoting 231. nash36:

They're all gonna struggle until we at least have a closed duck fart to follow.


Now I've heard it all. :D
My forecast for 2016

Slightly different but why not? The vast majority of population lives west of 70 degrees west. Therefore

7 named storms east of 70 w with 3 canes and 1 major. Florida will get hit (within 100 miles) by at least one named storm.

I do not think that the MDR will be a significant player this year. SST, Dust, upper level shear, and dust keeping the tropical waves exiting Africa from spinning up.

Come Nov. If necessary I like my crow fried.
Quoting 261. ackee:

I think the the Euro as been only model developing the low further East and show little development I think the Euro is very consistent and see pattern sometime well ahead of the beloved Gfs this system could be a early 2015 big win again for the Euro

Models certainly trended that way last night, not what I was expecting, although the 6z GFS came back the other way a bit. Would definitely want to see the 12z suite before changing my thinking much. My biggest concern now is that the shear is not relaxing as fast as predicted. Still 40-50kts. It appears we have a lower level feature trying to form though, albeit weak.

I just read Presslord's comment about why it's been so long since he visited and remembering why that is after he came here today. I had the same initial feeling. There's too much talk about the nature of the talk and the way that it was... Frankly, I'm contributing to that now. Anyway, I remembered I should always assume it will always be that way until a real event crops up. This "event" now isn't one of those times. But... It did draw some of us in. In a weird way, it's nice to hear the banter... Wishing everyone a safe season...
Quoting 270. Autistic2:
Florida will get hit (within 100 miles) by at least one named storm.


My insane family has an annual tradition at new year's predicting major events that will occur in the coming year. This past January, one of my predictions was a Cat 3 or higher striking Florida. My reasoning was that the MDR would be quiet - an El Nino would be developing or in place, SAL would be continue to be significant, storms would struggle to develop much like they have the previous few years, and most tropical activity would be of the "home-grown" variety. A GOM storm would spin up and develop very quickly (or maybe one from within the Caribbean) and surprise FL. Additionally, Florida has been historically lucky the past 10 years. That luck is destined to run out eventually.

My family is sick. I know.

I also predicted the Dow would end the year near 17,500, Assad would be "removed from power" (whatever that means), and Obama's approval rating would hit an all-time low. (That final prediction was my softball toss. The one that hopefully would guarantee me getting at least one correct...:D)
Quoting 241. win1gamegiantsplease:



Super-seniors and soon to be super-super seniors unite! Anyone? Ok...



I'm a junior.
Quoting 192. Tropicsweatherpr:

Looks like a big dessert.


Un pastel de chocolate?
Quoting 276. TimTheWxMan:




I'm a junior.


I got the senior discount at McDonalds, does that count?
Link
This article talks about the envasive species of Pythons and how they're wiping out native mammals in the Everglades.
Good Morning. The messy trof area over the Bahamas with the pending low is not much
better organized this morning. It will take some time. I have not looked at the models yet
but the overall movement of the area is "telegraphing" a move towards the North; I don't
believe that Florida will be an issue downstream but maybe the outer banks.

Here is the relevant portion of the NHC TWD:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015


ATLANTIC OCEAN...


A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...
AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS
FROM 23N77W TO 27N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-31N W OF 67W. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF 37N29W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N38W
SW TO 25N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 22W-36W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N47W.

Quoting 268. WxLogic:

Good Morning... a couple observations at the current conditions.

At 500MB... upper level low is starting to wrap up and get consolidated some as it starts to pull away from south FL:



At the SFC... I see indications based on reports that WND are starting to show signs of a possible weak SFC low attempting to take shape over the gulf stream. Will it make it, will remain to be seen:




Starting to show up on Miami radar too. Picked up 0.01 at my house last night while 0.13 at my office in Altamonte Springs. I guess something is better than nothing.

Low seems to be forming due south of Key Largo near that heavy band of rain.

Quoting 279. washingtonian115:

Link
This article talks about the envasive species of Pythons and how they're wiping out native mammals in the Everglades.


I was down there last Summer and saw one maybe 14" to 16" sitting up in a Cyprus Tree. No joke looked up and saw this massive head starring at me. Scared the S... out of me!
NHC seems to think (below) that the low will close off at the surface. Here are the current CIMSS charts for the upper, mid, and surface vort signatures: The strongest vort signature is at the mid-level as noted below and slowly working it's way to the surface.

Upper


Mid


Surface
 
This area south of Key Largo looks interesting as there seems to be a mid level circulation there and one that may work its way to the surface. If this is infact our Low forming then it would track NNE across coastal sections of SE FL to just off Cape Canaveral tomorrow.

looks sloppy but its becoming apparent that our low is getting going south of FL specially due south of Key Largo.

This is strange. A special satellite imagery from NHC dated may 4 with nothing expected.

low looks to be consolidating just northwest of walkers cay
From yesterday evening...

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near the
northwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it
moves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

New update in ~2 hours
290. MahFL
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

looks sloppy but its becoming apparent that our low is getting going south of FL specially due south of Key Largo.


A lot of the talk and models though is the low forming much more east out in the Bahamas...
Quoting 289. Torito:

From yesterday evening...

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near the
northwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it
moves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

New update in ~2 hours



your late
GFS:


CMC:


ECMWF:


JMA:
Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



I was down there last Summer and saw one maybe 14" to 16" sitting up in a Cyprus Tree. No joke looked up and saw this massive head starring at me. Scared the S... out of me!


That was a small Python...he was still a baby
Quoting 293. wilburo33:


That was a small Python...he was still a baby


"Fascinating as they are, pythons can reach lengths of up to 35 feet. That is also why pythons are exhibited in most Zoological Gardens..."

Link
Quoting 128. georgevandenberghe:



Solid water requires a lot of heat to transition to liquid phase. While melting it will keep the freezer temperature near the melting temperature. For fresh water this is near 0C and your frozen stuff will soften or slowly thaw. Brine melts at a lower temperature so your frozen stuff will stay frozen for longer. It takes about 1Kcal to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water 1C. It takes about 80Kcal to melt a kilogram of ice. The brine solution will keep the freezer at a colder temperature during the long melting period. If you plot the temperature in a powerless freezer it will rise steadily with time until stuff starts to melt, then latent heat of fusion is absorbed keeping the temperature near constant until the stuff has melted, then it rises steadily but at a decreasing rate until it has come to equilibrium with the room.

Well that's interesting. I guess, though, the difference in time to melt and what it'll keep frozen/cold in the freezer can't be too significant. I think if my power were out long enough for the water/brine to melt I'd be more concerned about needing fresh water to drink rather than the extra few minutes of cold I'd get by freezing salt water.

Interesting idea though. Thanks.

...Chuck
Quoting 281. StormTrackerScott:



Starting to show up on Miami radar too. Picked up 0.01 at my house last night while 0.13 at my office in Altamonte Springs. I guess something is better than nothing.

Low seems to be forming due south of Key Largo near that heavy band of rain.




LOL quite true... something is better than nothing.
297. JRRP
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 18 minHace 18 minutos
While El Nino intensifies, +PDO gradually weakening. April 2015 number down to +0.99.
Good morning, all.

Another day of disturbance watching and model shifting.
Good morning over there, and - howdy! - today's development of "Caribbean" low "Zoran" (see post #70) over (North)-Western Europe took forecasters a bit by surprise. Even "European Forecast Experiment" (Estofex) had to add a mesoscale discussion to cover the heavy thunderstorms, loaded with large hail, which popped up over Benelux countries, northwestern Germany and Denmark:


Saved current image of lightning tracks in the last two hours. Source.

Estofex Mesoscale Discussion,
Valid: Tue 05 May 2015 10:00 to Tue 05 May 2015 14:00 UTC, Issued: Tue 05 May 2015 10:21
Forecaster: PUCIK
... Severe wind gust and tornado threat increasing over the next few hours over Netherlands, N Belgium and NW Germany ...
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity is increasing over the region, while part of it being outside the denoted Lvl 1 area. Satellite loops reveal that ahead of the developing storms, surface heating will continue to destabise the lower troposphere with several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE available. Models are consistent in showing strong low level shear given over 20 - 25 m/s of 850 hPa flow. Nordholz wind profiler is also showing strengthening of the low-level wind field with 20 m/s observed already at 1 km. However, wind profiles are rather unidirectional, limiting SREH values.
Several high resolution models show development of both linear and cellular convective structures in the next few hours, so both severe wind gust and tornado threats will be present. Severe wind gust threat could become especially pronounced if developing convective system oriented itself perpendicular to the low-level flow, which is not the case atm.




Very mild temperatures last night at my place in Mainz (mid Germany), currently more than 27C (81F) and very windy (orange alert).




Analysis of fronts earlier this morning with "Zoran" over UK and "Ivo" southwest of Ireland.
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

looks sloppy but its becoming apparent that our low is getting going south of FL specially due south of Key Largo.




Not buying it Scott. I suspect it is closer to Andros Island. Maybe over it, or just off to the W of it. With the shear, I'd suspect the lowest pressures would be somewhere just off to the SW of the convection in the Bahamas.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051359
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



I was down there last Summer and saw one maybe 14" to 16" sitting up in a Cyprus Tree. No joke looked up and saw this massive head starring at me. Scared the S... out of me!


I have to laugh when I read these. I have relatives outside of FL who assume I have pythons and alligators circling my house at all times. Personally, I'd love for one python to show up and chow down on all the fruit-thieving rats, raccoons and opossums. When my Mom was here last year and we went on a walk, I joked that if I found a python it was mine to take home... where she lives in Georgia they have a horrible deer problem and she joked that if we found a python big enough to eat a deer, it was goin' home with her!
In school. Chances just went up.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Good morning everyone,

Kind of in a hurry and can't read through the blog until later this afternoon, so my apologies if this has already been discussed, but I wanted to ask:

Has there been any official discussion about changing the start of hurricane season to May 1st? Without doing any research it seems like we've had systems form in May, or almost form, most years in recent memory. My family has made it an annual tradition to go to Hilton Head for the week beginning Memorial Day weekend, and 2 of the 3 years we have encountered either a tropical storm or a strong coastal low. One of the 3 years, we began and ended the weeklong trip under a tropical storm warning.

This potential storm got me thinking that maybe it is time to change the start of the season to May 1st. We see far more storms forming before the official season begins than we do after it ends. Just something to think about and create discussion. Look forward to reading any thoughts/opinions when I log back on this afternoon. Have a great day!
Not buying it Scott. I suspect it is closer to Andros Island. Maybe over it, or just off to the W of it. With the shear, I'd suspect the lowest pressures would be somewhere just off to the SW of the convection in the Bahamas.


while i would suspect you're close.....we've seen so many times with a broad low......it can change by the hour.
we may see 90L today now that it is at 20%
Quoting 309. ricderr:

while i would suspect you're close.....we've seen so many times with a broad low......it can change by the hour.


Very true ric. Unfortunately, there is no pressure info around Andros. Pressures elsewhere are still high. So it is entirely possible, and even likely that the "hot spot" could move around until we can confirm or deny an actual low pressure center.
This is what happens when people do not heed red flag warnings.

NY State Forest Fire
Link
hmmmmmmm..........

Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 1h1 hour ago
While El Nino intensifies, +PDO gradually weakening. April 2015 number down to +0.99.
so.....yesterday afternoon...i shot eric an email.....asking him how he adjusts for the bias....seeing there has been no clear pattern over the years.....at least not that i can find......and the fact that i can find no studies showing anything but randomness......he hasn't gotten back to me yet


Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus 19h19 hours ago
Even adjusting for bias, the CFSv2 still wants to create the strongest El Niño since 1997-98 later this year:
Both 12Z NAM & 12 WRF are very close to Cape Canaveral and brings strong winds and heavy rain squalls to E C FL tomorrow.
401.52...

Miami Nexrad

As by the book, we go.

Quoting 317. ricderr:

so.....yesterday afternoon...i shot eric an email.....asking him how he adjusts for the bias....seeing there has been no clear pattern over the years.....at least not that i can find......and the fact that i can find no studies showing anything but randomness......he hasn't gotten back to me yet


Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus 19h19 hours ago
Even adjusting for bias, the CFSv2 still wants to create the strongest El Niño since 1997-98 later this year:



I would like to know how they do that too but given that it does seem that with these updates coming out for May that we could be looking at an El-Nino event similar to 1997 or stronger. Dr. Phil Klotzbach has some interesting insights on this and how it may play out. Something to watch!
Quoting 321. Patrap:

As by the book, we go.




Does appear something getting going due South of Key Largo but it is still broad and messy.
12Z NAM is pounding Jacksonville to Savannaha this run. Much farther west than any other run so far by the NAM.
Andros be the focus ATM. Thought right smack on the western tip but I see a couple around the island which is common.
Quoting 325. StormTrackerScott:

12Z NAM is pounding Jacksonville to Savannaha this run. Much farther west than any other run so far by the NAM.


Which.......can probably be discounted until we actually have a sfc low for the models to grab hold of. At this point, none of the models can be given priority. The one thing that looks to be a lock is the High to the N blocking any quick escape. Other than that, everything else is still a coin flip.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Quoting 327. nash36:



Which.......can probably be discounted until we actually have a sfc low for the models to grab hold of. At this point, none of the models can be given priority. The one thing that looks to be a lock is the High to the N blocking any quick escape. Other than that, everything else is still a coin flip.


Nam showing a rough weekend from JAX to Myrtle Beach.
Quoting 305. OrchidGrower:



I have to laugh when I read these. I have relatives outside of FL who assume I have pythons and alligators circling my house at all times. Personally, I'd love for one python to show up and chow down on all the fruit-thieving rats, raccoons and opossums. When my Mom was here last year and we went on a walk, I joked that if I found a python it was mine to take home... where she lives in Georgia they have a horrible deer problem and she joked that if we found a python big enough to eat a deer, it was goin' home with her!


We have alligators, in fact a buddy of mine lives on the Brunswick River and they like to lounge in hos backyard, but I wouldn't know what to think if I saw a python in the wild. They don't seem to be as reclusive as the poisonous ones we have.
Quoting 324. StormTrackerScott:



Does appear something getting going due South of Key Largo but it is still broad and messy.


The broad area of low pressure is off to the E. Near Andros Island. Every agency we have at our disposal agree on this.

As for the NAM and anyone getting "pounded"...The NAM is showing the system remaining off shore. These types of storm are typically much, much weaker on the W side. It will take a trip over the Gulf Stream for it to reach a 50mph tropical storm, and whether it ends up over the Gulf Stream is still very speculative. For anyone to really see significant impacts from the system, it will have to move onshore somewhere. Thus, the areas on the N/NNE side would see the roughest weather. W/SW side will likely see minimal impacts. Just my two cents of course, but that is what we have typically seen with systems like this.

TS Winds?
Quoting 327. nash36:



Which.......can probably be discounted until we actually have a sfc low for the models to grab hold of. At this point, none of the models can be given priority. The one thing that looks to be a lock is the High to the N blocking any quick escape. Other than that, everything else is still a coin flip.


Words of wisdom. Let's wait until a surface low actually develops. Right now this is little more than a disorganized area of showers.

Miami Nexrad

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile


Bingo latest HRRR model now forms a surface low due SSE of Key Largo later today. Interesting!
Under the B

64?


: P


We can see the LOW forming.

NDBC
As much as I love a good TS, I really do not want Mother's Day weekend washed out.
That area of disorganized showers DOES have that tropical look.


Quoting 331. StormJunkie:



The broad area of low pressure is off to the E. Near Andros Island. Every agency we have at our disposal agree on this.

As for the NAM and anyone getting "pounded"...The NAM is showing the system remaining off shore. These types of storm are typically much, much weaker on the W side. It will take a trip over the Gulf Stream for it to reach a 50mph tropical storm, and whether it ends up over the Gulf Stream is still very speculative. For anyone to really see significant impacts from the system, it will have to move onshore somewhere. Thus, the areas on the N/NNE side would see the roughest weather. W/SW side will likely see minimal impacts. Just my two cents of course, but that is what we have typically seen with systems like this.


12Z NAM shows 10M winds of Tropical Storm force from JAX to Myrtle Beach in a strong rain band that hugs the coast and sits there. So yes the word pounded seems appropriate.
Quoting 333. HurricaneAndre:


TS Winds?


Notice the notch in winds south of Key Largo on that image.
Miami Nexrad

Base Radial Velocity .50 Elevation

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Key West Florida
1035 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Discussion...
currently...
skies are cloudy across our entire region with temperatures ranging
between 70 rain cooled degrees from Grassy Key to Ocean Reef...and
in the middle 70s elsewhere. Local radars are detecting a large area of
rain with embedded isolated showers and thunderstorms from Florida
Bay to beyond 60 nm southeast of the Upper Keys. Also...showers and
thunderstorms are on the increase on the waters beyond 20 to 40 nm
south of the middle and Lower Keys respectively. Surface wise...a
trough low pressure is draped from the outer straits into the
northwest Bahamas. Across our marine district...winds are mostly
northeast to east near 15 knots but with 17 knots at Smith Shoal
light.

Short term (rest of today)...the axis of a deep...negatively tilted
trough extending from the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico into the
northwest Caribbean Sea will migrate slowly east northeastward for
the remainder of today. Meanwhile...a splintered low level trough
(surface-850 mb) extending from the western tip of Cuba to the
northwest Bahamas will migrate northwestward. Although the most
significant middle and upper level ascent will lie over the Bahamas
northward...modest low level confluence...upglide primarily between
850 and 700 mb with weak ascent aloft should generate occasional
showers and isolated thunderstorms with the best coverage from the
Middle Keys eastward. Due to extensive cloud cover and a moderate
east wind...temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees. With
that said...will monitor radar trends and satellite imagery for the
next couple of hours to decide whether to update the public zone
forecast to lower probability of precipitation for at least the Lower Keys and maintain
likely or categorical probability of precipitation elsewhere.

&&

Marine...winds have slackened appreciably over the last several
hours...but with moderate to fresh winds persisting on most of the
Florida Straits...the outer waters of Mainland Monroe and out to
beyond Dry Tortugas. On these waters...an exercise caution headline
will replace the Small Craft Advisory and near 15 knots elsewhere.
Otherwise...precipitation coverage will be changed to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&
Quoting 276. TimTheWxMan:




I'm a junior.


Well I guess that makes you on time, either my friends didn't go to school, have already graduated, or are this month. Wish I knew what I was doing graduating high school, I blame my late finish on parties, indecisiveness, and decisiveness. I've straightened up quite a bit, can't be taking quantum mechanics get wild every weekend.

The convecion of our potential STS has looked better over the last 12 hours and the immediate environment looks moderately comducive for this to continue, should be a neat couple of days.
Quoting 310. Tazmanian:

we may see 90L today now that it is at 20%

PECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

invest 90L COMING SOON!
PECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
ready for a number looking nw of walkers cay
Quoting 340. StormTrackerScott:



12Z NAM shows 10M winds of Tropical Storm force from JAX to Myrtle Beach in a strong rain band that hugs the coast and sits there. So yes the word pounded seems appropriate.


16-30 mph at 10 meters on the immediate coast...is not exactly a pounding. Would create some dangerous rip currents though, and some likely beach erosion. Flooding is a real concern on the N/NNE side of the system should it decide to linger on any portion of the coastline for a couple of days, but at the moment that is very speculative as well.




here we go!!
a href="" target="_blank">Link
SSTs across the MDR are above average for the first time since late March:



Perhaps the Atlantic won't be looking too bad by the time the season begins.
"End of the world" right now on Earthcam Hamburg/Germany:
Link


Edit: Screenshot 10 minutes ago, lol.


Edit: Looks like the worst is over now.


Hamburg has been right beneath those yellow and - more severe - orange lightning dots.


Tracks of lightning in Germany the last two hours.
Quoting 348. StormJunkie:



16-30 mph at 10 meters on the immediate coast...is not exactly a pounding. Would create some dangerous rip currents though, and some likely beach erosion. Flooding is a real concern on the N/NNE side of the system should it decide to linger on any portion of the coastline for a couple of days, but at the moment that is very speculative as well.


Greetings S.J.....A tropical disturbance this early is cool to watch..We may have a little somethin making land..its a wait and see...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxhfN3yZiKU&feature =youtu.be
Quoting 348. StormJunkie:



16-30 mph at 10 meters on the immediate coast...is not exactly a pounding. Would create some dangerous rip currents though, and some likely beach erosion. Flooding is a real concern on the N/NNE side of the system should it decide to linger on any portion of the coastline for a couple of days, but at the moment that is very speculative as well.




All I can say is let's be thankful it isn't late August or early September. Assuming the upper-level winds relaxed, given much warmer waters and that blocking high, we would have had the potential for a rapidly deepening hurricane. We can all handle a low-grade STS or TS.
Quoting 325. StormTrackerScott:

12Z NAM is pounding Jacksonville to Savannaha this run. Much farther west than any other run so far by the NAM.



Scott it will form north and east of Grand Bahama and move N to NNE Thurs-Friday...after that, it all depends on the ridging and how strong this is... stronger storm will head north then NE later this weekend or a weaker system trough might head west toward GA-SC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxhfN3yZiKU&feature =youtu.beLink
Yes someone posted the SST 7 day anomaly map above and I noticed that recent warm up.



Quoting 351. Envoirment:

SSTs across the MDR are above average for the first time since late March:



Perhaps the Atlantic won't be looking too bad by the time the season begins.
Quoting 357. nash36:



All I can say is let's be thankful it isn't late August or early September. Assuming the upper-level winds relaxed, given much warmer waters and that blocking high, we would have had the potential for a rapidly deepening hurricane. We can all handle a low-grade STS or TS.
pre season prep just to let us know that the season is fast approaching

No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎May ‎5, ‎2015, ‏‎14 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Tue, 05 May 2015 15:15:02 GMT
XXL/AOI/XX
Quoting 358. scottsvb:




Scott it will form north and east of Grand Bahama and move N to NNE Thurs-Friday...after that, it all depends on the ridging and how strong this is... stronger storm will head north then NE later this weekend or a weaker system trough might head west toward GA-SC


All short range models infact the latest HRRR just finished running and it clearly has a weak low forming just east of Miami by 1am moving NW/N. Looks like a mid level feature SSE of Key Largo could be our future system. After the center fully matures then a NNE movement will occur to a position just east of Cape Canaveral by afternoon.

Quoting 357. nash36:



All I can say is let's be thankful it isn't late August or early September. Assuming the upper-level winds relaxed, given much warmer waters and that blocking high, we would have had the potential for a rapidly deepening hurricane. We can all handle a low-grade STS or TS.


And at this latitude it would likely be blocked off by the Azores high at that time to a varying influence to track it into FL and the gulf or up the seaboard and out. I know Florida is waiting for their day as it will happen sooner than later but here's to hoping SE N Carolina doesn't have to go through anything for years to come.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 05 MAY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1500Z
D. 30.0N 76.0W
E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2215Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 07/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/0800Z
D. 31.0N 75.0W
E. 07/1115Z TO 07/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
12Z GFS has system going up the east coast of FL. Not surprised as this area south of Key Largo is very interesting today!


System pulls off Daytona Beach at 18Z (Scratch that mid level system) low level system just off shore. Huge change from 06Z run.



850V

700V

Hey guys just been lurking in the shadows

Anyway
STWO upped then numbers 20%/40%
It's starting to look more organised
There are indications a Sfc low is forming
There seems to be some strong TD a force winds
with some gust up to TS force
I think will see PRE-90L get offical designation shortly

I think depending on how quickly this is able to organised
we may get Sub/Tropical Depression One either tonight or tomorrow
and Sub/Tropical Storm Ana either Wed night or Thurs or Fri morning the latest
This of course all depends on how quick it develops
I love when the gators lounge on the Brunswick County Beaches. Sorry I couldn't imbed link.

http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20120801/AR TICLES/120809973

Quoting 330. win1gamegiantsplease:



We have alligators, in fact a buddy of mine lives on the Brunswick River and they like to lounge in hos backyard, but I wouldn't know what to think if I saw a python in the wild. They don't seem to be as reclusive as the poisonous ones we have.
Quoting 305. OrchidGrower:



I have to laugh when I read these. I have relatives outside of FL who assume I have pythons and alligators circling my house at all times. Personally, I'd love for one python to show up and chow down on all the fruit-thieving rats, raccoons and opossums. When my Mom was here last year and we went on a walk, I joked that if I found a python it was mine to take home... where she lives in Georgia they have a horrible deer problem and she joked that if we found a python big enough to eat a deer, it was goin' home with her!




The primary deer predator in the Eastern U.S. was the mountain lion/cougar/puma/catamount. These big cats have been supposedly eliminated east of the Missisippi river except for Florida although occasional sightings persist and keep getting discounted. But if they ever spread back east, they will find abundant prey.
Big shift west on 12Z GFS.

The area of low pressure is broad but the trough is extending from Cuba north through Nassau to north of Grand Bahama island. A low pressure within this looks to be forming slowly at the lower levels just south of Nassau and Providence island. The trough is being pull alittle NW by the upper low in the extreme SGOM near Cuba...but as the low forms thru tonight into Weds.. a North movement will happen then NNE or even NE. Big question is how much does it develop later this week. Also ridging this weekend to determine which way it goes and strength of the low.
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:

Big shift west on 12Z GFS.




In other words, it's behaving like a windshield wiper again. No consistency from run to run. Blah.
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:

Big shift west on 12Z GFS.




looks about the same.. each 6hr run will be slightly different on developing systems..overall over the past 24hrs it's about where it should be in 48hrs..well off the east coast of Daytona.
Quoting 376. nash36:



In other words, it's behaving like a windshield wiper again. No consistency from run to run. Blah.
it may in fact do a circle dance with itself as it meanders for a few days or so
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 378. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it may in fact do a circle dance with itself as it meanders for a few days or so


I vividly remember when Jeanne ran into that brick wall High and did her loop. It was bizarre to say the least.
Quoting 377. scottsvb:



looks about the same.. each 6hr run will be slightly different on developing systems..overall over the past 24hrs it's about where it should be in 48hrs..well off the east coast of Daytona.


It's a good distance west of the 12Z run compared to the 06Z
Quoting 381. StormTrackerScott:



It's a good distance west of the 12Z run compared to the 06Z


at 48hrs..its about 50 miles west
Quoting 330. win1gamegiantsplease:



We have alligators, in fact a buddy of mine lives on the Brunswick River and they like to lounge in hos backyard, but I wouldn't know what to think if I saw a python in the wild. They don't seem to be as reclusive as the poisonous ones we have.
Many do not realize that pythons are very dangerous. Some species like the Reticulated Python are extremely powerful and aggressive towards humans. They have killed humans in the wild and in captivity. Attacks on humans are rare but violent.



The "reticulated" net-like patterning that gives the reticulated python its name
Quoting 373. georgevandenberghe:





The primary deer predator in the Eastern U.S. was the mountain lion/cougar/puma/catamount. These big cats have been supposedly eliminated east of the Missisippi river except for Florida although occasional sightings persist and keep getting discounted. But if they ever spread back east, they will find abundant prey.
They've been rarely seen in IL, though some insist they never were fully gone from the major river valleys and Deep Southern (Shawnee Nat'l Forest). Showing up on deer cams more, so won't be long. Not thrilled may have to worry about one when deer hunting, but still better in long run. Wolves occasionally show up from MN/WI in N IL too. Then, no shortage of coyotes/coy dogs.

Humidity has returned to S C IL w/ a vengeance, but could be worse. Mid 80s w/ lower 50 dew pts, not horrible, but big change from 70s w/ low to mid 30 dew pts last week. Picked up peppers and tomatoes for garden last night, pretty sure we won't be below 50 much anymore. Corn is pretty well in here, they're working or even planting bean ground now.