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Subtropical Storm Andrea not changing much

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:02 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity in the rainbands surrounding the center has decreased, and the cloud tops have warmed some, indicating weakening. However, the organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has improved some, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant the past few hours. Tropical storm-force winds cover a wide swath of ocean surrounding the center. Winds from the 6:44am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite (Figure 1) were as high as 50 knots (57 mph) in the heaviest thunderstorms on the southeast side. Winds at Gray's Reef 45 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia, have been just below tropical storm force this afternoon--33 mph, gusting to 38 mph.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of the surface winds at 6:44am EDT Wed May 10. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 20 knots this afternoon. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-26 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period without a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update early this evening. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Hybrid Storm Swells
Hybrid Storm Swells
Just after sunrise at Juno Beach, Florida - large swells breaking half a mile offshore.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanx for the update.
Thanks Doc for Keeping us informed
Bad News:

"SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING"

Looks like lots of wind to fan the flames but not much else.
Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 20 knots this afternoon. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-26 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Dr. Masters,this shear isn't shown on WU's GFS maps,nor is there a trough(I believe) to cause the shear.What's causing it?
I'll have an update early this evening. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Darn,they're out already?I geuss that explains the sudden rise in altitude on their last report.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:59 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Cofirms my thinking!

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...POORLY-ORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL STORM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135
MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.




Adrian...it confirmes EVERYONE'S thinking,LOL.Anyone with eyes can see this storm is weakening.But,and this is a big but,it has started to look bad this time of day each of the past three days;only to blow up overnight and look better than before.Will that happen again?Hard to say.We'll need to wait and see.It isn't ingesting that dry air,and shear isn't a problem yet.So,I'm thinking this is likely diurnal.Then again,what do I know?At midnight last night I was calling it dead in Taz's blog.
long time lurker...finally paid up my dues.
sitting in NE Orlando...I use the old fashioned way to forecast...Winds from the W...pressure steady....rel. humidity on my Oregon Scientific sensor: 39%!!!!

Any wonder why the west side is falling off? This is not tropical...clouds are flat, they don't tower like chimney stacks of smoke (very indicative of tropical convection if you have lived from here down to the carribbean).

She's gonna fall apart...no tap to deep tropical moisture will mean *POOF*...away she goes....
The amount of dry will take its toll and with cooler SST'S ahead and increase in windshear the storm should gradually spin down.
Dangit... an early start.

Put on a pot of coffee, this could be a LONG season...
Longest period without a tropical cyclone ends



Ummm, so we're calling this a tropical cyclone now? I thought it was subtropical...
...where is Randrewl?
thnx of rthe update :)
it is subtropical...i can see it with my eyeballs. it's as dry as colorado, and the outer band clouds whisping by (it's mostly sunny) are flat and look like the fair weather clouds I used to see in July growing up in Kansas City. Doesn't look like the columns that one sees rising above the carribbean, and what we saw overhead with hurricane Charley, Ivan, etc. etc. etc....this isn't tropical.

If it sucks up enough gulf stream moisture to throw out the tropical clouds and humidity, we'll see it here in central florida.
Current radar image with track and visible.

aron this update his blog

Link
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 6:25 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

...where is Randrewl?


He was banned a month ago.
Eighteen tropical storms and four hurricanes have been recorded in May since 1851. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. was Alma in northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
well whatever just blew through here was uneventful. A bit of rain, a few gusts to make the weeping willow across the street very attractive. Maybe Andrea should get together with Alberto.
LOL,very similar,early season storms.
23. Eld
It's too bad it won't hook into Georgia, we need the rain really badly, especially with that south georgia fire (130,000+ acres).
If Andrea makes it to tonight, I predict we see another round of explosive deepening before she hits land... what do you think?
Afternoon all.

The latest GFDL is crazy. Backs it down towards the Bahamas...
I have no idea why the satellite loops make it look like it's going north...
Posted By: rainmound at 6:39 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

If Andrea makes it to tonight, I predict we see another round of explosive deepening before she hits land... what do you think?


Do you even know the definition of explosive deepening(Yes,there is an official definition)?It has not done anything close to explosive deepening at any point throughout it's lifetime.It will stregthen tonight,but not explosively.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html
posted by skibrian:

" Doesn't look like the columns that one sees rising above the carribbean, and what we saw overhead with hurricane Charley, Ivan, etc. etc. etc....this isn't tropical."

but charley was a cat 4 storm with 145 mph winds and ivan was a cat 3 storm with 125mph winds at landfall. andrea is a minimal tropical storm. there is a big differnce.
"but charley was a cat 4 storm with 145 mph winds and ivan was a cat 3 storm with 125mph winds at landfall. andrea is a minimal tropical storm. there is a big differnce."

but even on calm sunny fair days when the clouds are drifting from SE or the S off the atlantic or through the lesser antilles...you get these sporadic somewhat tall clouds that I have only seen in the tropics. I'm no expert...but that has always sort of been a harbinger to me that moist tropical air is around. and when those big Canes are still way out, those are always the first clouds we see whether on the north or the east or whatever quadrant.



Looks like Andrea is trying very hard to close of its COC, and it appears More tropical, since the COC is much, much smaller than it was!

amazing how people can look at the same thing, but see different things! LOL
in relation to my last post...what I'm saying is that my eyes and skin (and indeed the humidity sensor I have) all come together to say (along with water vapor images) that the airmass over much of Florida is continental in nature and not tropical...that is what I'm trying to say in order to defend my prediction that unless this thing spins up its own moisture, it ain't gonna make it.
Really odd formation to the bands also if you ask me. Not sure what is going on with this thing now.

Good point thel, I was putting the COC well left of there. Hence the banding not making any sense to me. But none of it seems to jive with what I see on the radar and WV either. Could just be falling apart.
posted by weatherboychis:

"Do you even know the definition of explosive deepening(Yes,there is an official definition)?It has not done anything close to explosive deepening at any point throughout it's lifetime.It will stregthen tonight,but not explosively."

i agree. when andrea's winds increase by 40 mph in 3 hrs of so (like charle) or its pressure starts to fall as wilma's did, then i would say its explosive deepening.

on another note, at least all the smoke from yesterday has cleared up in my area (sw florida). yesterday it was hard to breath there was so much smoke. with the amount of smoke, you would have thought the fire was close by, but it was smoke from 3 fires: one in sarasota, near gainesville, and the large georgia one.
Look off to the east in this WV Loop Isnt that how Andrea Formed??
Link
It looks like it is moving north. Am I the only one who sees this?
"Posted By: StormJunkie
Really odd formation to the bands also if you ask me. Not sure what is going on with this thing now."

Andrea is trying to consolidate and stregnthen my friend! ;)

The storm sort of looks ragged, but I am now seeing the most impressive explosion of T-storms near the center than we have seen thus far. The next couple are hours may get interesting! LOL
The storm on the Floater in Motion..Link
If anything, looks stationary to me! ;)
"It looks like it is moving north. Am I the only one who sees this?"

i think it's tough to see...in motion, it almost looks like it is struggling to close off to the east of the original "eye"...i think thelmores is alluding to that in his graphic. if so...very difficult to see movement from my perspective. if another center forms to the east...if it is doing this...maybe it will spin up???
I know this may sound crazy, but I truly believe we could have a strong "tropical" storm later today!
Is Andrea using the heat from the ocean?? Looking long range any Highs or Fronts that could this storm somewhere or will it just sit and spin?
I just noticed the center reformation. It looks like it is reforming off to the east. If it does this wouldn't it have more time for the cold front to come across and pick it up and take it north and east out to sea?
We may need to watch below Jamaica Link
i dont think going further south than expected is out of the question here . this is just spinning around . and going nowhere for awhile. utill it makes amove anything can happen .
"I know this may sound crazy, but I truly believe we could have a strong "tropical" storm later today!"

---I'm with that...especially if i am right in seeing a second eye forming to the east that becomes the center. If so...plenty more time to tap that much needed moisture and then maybe she can start pushing all this dry air out of her way and chart her own path regardless of the current dry air around the west, south, and SE of the storm....
Andrea ..looking at the sat images and radar .Seems to have stalled and is in a re-consolidating phase. A new center is trying to close off to the east of the former one is noted.
Mel- It isn't moving north, that's just convection, the center is still moving west, the west side of the storm is deteriorating. I do believe tonight during the diurnal maximum that we will see it attempt to get itself together, however the vertical shear and close proximity to land will inhibit any strengthening. The SST's, however, are fine, despite what everyone is saying. The COC is over waters of 26.8-27.5C, which is around 78-81F. This is not an issue, SST's will only get warmer the way Andrea is going. It should remain weak and not a topic to concern yourself with, the problem with the dryness, however, is the 210 fires burning in Florida and the several 100 fires burning in Georgia. 45kt winds don't tend to help that. :(
I agree with the stationary part thel, but I am more wondering if it is trying to recenter? Does not make sense though if that is what it is doing...Not that Andrea on May 9th makes much sense either though ☺
dr m i would like to no when you will be doing your may blog on the STEERING CURRENTS for this year thanks for geting back to me on this
I think Andrea might have a chance to get to 50mph, but no more. She make take advantage of the day time heating thunderstorms caused over land, due to her relativity to land, with somewhat shallower waters.

I think a storm that is moving closer to a land mass takes less advantage of Diurnal effect overnight in the water, and more of the Diurnal effect in the afternoon & evening over land.
If that is the case pat, it is not the first time we have seen a system try to jump to the warmer waters...Still would not have seen this coming though, if indeed that is what is happening.
"Posted By: Patrap
Andrea ..looking at the sat images and radar .Seems to have stalled and is in a re-consolidating phase. A new center is trying to close off to the east of the former one is noted"

Pat..... you finally said something I agree with! LOL
Oh ya, I've seen hurricane relocate over warmer waters, particularly when they are young and undeveloped. Remember, these are the things that replace their eyes when they start getting ragged or weak - so relocating the center is nothing to them!
be back later...need to eat...maybe take a drive and sniff the smoke filled air...(PLEASE!!! Andrea! Bring us your rain!)
Well hell, although I sit here thinking I am crazy for wondering if this system could recenter. It looks like we have a fairly large number of fairly well versed folks on board with this theory...

Just don't make no sense in early may.
If the center does consolidate eastward = more time in open water! ;)

I'm lookin more closer to 60mph, but that is assuming that the current "trends" hold up.... and as we all know, we have no friggin idea what will happen, which goes along way to explain why we are all here! ;)
kyle, much to my shock, Andrea has taken advantage of the diurnal cooling every night the past three nights.
so relocating the center is nothing to them!

kyle, I am well aware of how centers reform. My point was that I am fairly shocked to see it, if it is what is happening, in a early May, system that was never supposed to be in the first place.
one last note...from my short 4 years watching these things in Florida....i might take a shot that if it is relocating the center, and taking advantage of warmer water, then 2 things:

1.) It will come out with a more tropical nature and will be warm core finally (an knock this continental airmass over florida out of the way with it's strong core)

2.) It puts to rest the debate on whether SST are warm enough.

Thoughts???

I'll look when I return....
Well, I'm hoping an early start isn't the signs of the season to come, because I have a feeling we could get more than 17 storms, not saying a ton, but starting the counting early like this is definitely a head start to that theory. I mean this is the first time I've ever seen a storm form before hurricane season since I've started tracking & monitoring tropical activity. Wouldn't be surprised to see another form in May again, especially because there are warmer waters in the Carribbean.
yes, its true that RIGHT now its a continental airmass. but as late as sunday, it was VERY hot and humid here. and it is supposed to be a tropical zone again by the weekend. i felt the humidity pick up over where i live today.

im still unsure of what you mean "it aint gonna make it". make it into what? i know its not going to be a hurricane. it will be a minimal tropical storm at best. but the fact remains is that it has survived and strengthed this early in the year totally surrounded by dry air is facinating
Oh, SJ, I wasn't trying to offend you, I was just saying that the fact alone that Andrea formed is enough - relocating the center wouldn't be a shock to me at all! LOL
looks to me according to the 2pm NHC position, Andrea has moved it center 50-75 miles east.

talking about a monkey wrench! Now what! LOL
Nice to meet you ski.

Not even going to touch question one. My 15 years has not even taught me enough to know that.

As for SSTs, I think the only thing in question was if it would get over the Gulf Stream. If it had stalled 150 miles further out, I don't think we would have been here now.

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FF--

Where you at? I see dew points up nearer to JAX

Anyway..."ain't gonna make it" meant, to me, that it has peaked stength and will disolve...

BUT! I saw sattellite imagery after reading Thel's post...and watching in motion, I am buying the "relocating center" theory. it is facinating...and I REALLY have to eat ;)
agreement isnt the rule... But the storm has some potential now.As the slowing and re-forming suggest organazation. Plus,..the storm dont read and has no ears as I always say.
The last 3-4 days in Myrtle beach have been cool, and relatively dry..... but today.... currently 75f with 70% humidity.
No offense taken kyle, now I am just shocked that you would not find it at least a little shocking. I don't know too many folks that know much about tropical systems that would have bought in to that theory at say 6:00 this am....
I've noticed little vortices circulating around a mean center since yesterday. We've seen this before in poorly organised systems. You can see them here Link
thats about the worst projected path iv seen from NHC its a big circle i think that NHC doesnt have any firm ground to base a forecast on Andrea is just drifting
"the storm dont read and has no ears as I always say."

LoL

Yea, Andrea doesn't know what SHE is "supposed" to do! LOL
Andrea is just drifting

Exactly chess, and it could do it for a few more days from some of the models I have seen. The GFDL has it dissipating just N of the Bahamas in like 120hrs or so...
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 2:09 PM CDT on May 09, 2007.

Well, I'm hoping an early start isn't the signs of the season to come, because I have a feeling we could get more than 17 storms...


You got that right - according to the NHC, the average date of the first storm in July 10 and the second August 6; in other words, even if nothing formed in June and July (very unlikely; even 2006 had 4 storms in that period), we would still be above average.
i live in the ft myers area. winds are from the NW here, meaning off the gulf and more moisture
hold on..time out...why is it..that...i haven't seen the updates 20 times already on this blog.....we might be glad andrea came as an early wake up call.....blogging as it should be is not being done correctly.....we haven't even had a..."i see an eye" post...for shame for shame...we need to hang our heads...wishcasting may be an endangered species
Well someone better get out there with a bull horn and tell her what to do!

mel and SSIG are the closest, and I nominate them. Pat is to write her instructions, and thel we are going to need some diagrams of where to point the bull horn...lol...☺
"I don't know too many folks that know much about tropical systems that would have bought in to that theory at say 6:00 this am...."

I would have thought it had a good chance to be named looking at the IR..... but the center re-locating, I doubt "anybody" could see that coming!

At this point, I have a low confidence in ALL the models!
I'll point the bullhorn towards my yard! Need more rain! LOL
That was my point thel. When I saw the imagery at 5:30 this am, I knew it had a shot at getting a name. Will not say I thought it was likely, after watching how things went with the early systems last year, but thought it had a shot.
The deep convection to the east and northeast continues to spin around, and is almost covering north. If this deep convection keeps spinning around...... well, you get the idea! :)
Thelmores, is it just me or does the current batch of model runs on Wunderground look like a man running from the Georgia & Florida fires? I see a head two arms & two legs {LOL}. Nothing but dry air here in Gainesville. We need rain, not wind to stoke the fires already burning.
Maybe Andrea put her "tip-toes" into the cooler water west of the gulf stream, and said "screw this", and went back to play in the stream! LOL
Here's my opinion, if Andrea can continue to relocate its center to the east and closer to the healthier bands of rain, which i think is happening as we speak, it will fair much better tonight and be able to strengthen not unlike Alberto did with the blowup of convection over its center. Definately say cat 1 would be just about as unlikely as a storm in May, but i dont think a 60mph TS would be out of the question. If it doesn't however, i think that the diurnal period tonight will not have more than a minimal positive effect upon the system.
OCTOPUS MODEL! LOL
Wow. It does look like the COC is trying to reform to the East! Much tighter circ too. Either that, or the whole thing is collapsing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html



PICK A DIRECTION! LOL
Hm... as cajunkid noted early, there is a strong bundle of storms below Jamaica - it looks like it is the tail end of a storm front, but what if it slows down and breaks off after it crosses north east over Jamaica and sits and spins up there? Possibility? Yay or Nay or get-the-hell-off-the-blog?
i this now noted that no one wins 03 contest for the 1st name storm
Here's what I see. Andrea has been stacked very high into the atmosphere, with an upper low parked on top of her (kudos to Jedkins for that). The upper low has decoupled from the lower one, and is decaying rapidly. You can see convection wrappong closer to the center and the large convective band that was wrapping around Andrea's whole envelope beginning to decay. For now, the ULL will shear Andrea a bit until it dies (which it is very quickly doing). Once it vanishes, Andrea can establish an outflow, and maybe build a little bit more strength before the shear sets in.
Dang Colby, I wish I would have said that! LOL
...I see some definite finger-banding and a tighter COC. Is she getting a little stronger?
She is trying real hard Cowboy.... at this point, I don't think many, if any, know whats next!
So, y'all think She has finally found her "Tropical" Center?
hey guys..... this is pretty weird for this time of year but anyways , most tropical storms I have seen have their center covered up with heavy thunderstorms and it looks like thats what shes doing.... she deosnt look as naked .... lol .... remember chris from last year haha...he had like one little dot of convection..poor storm ... well I think anything can happen as of now... just look at the track lol
First time commenting on this site. I love reading what you guys have to say. I'm a 17 year old student at Cooper City HS and am known as the Weatherman at school.

Now to the topic of Andrea, I have been noticing the storm is undergoing some reorganization especially around the center. Very interesting storm. Even more interesting is the fact the center has been relocated 50 miles to the east. Gives it more time to try to strengthen. It all depends upon the high to the north on when this storm starts turning southward. Hope it brings rain to my entire state of Florida by making landfall around Cape Canaveral and traveling down the peninsula.

Well, nice chattin with y'all.
"I'll point the bullhorn towards my yard! Need more rain! LOL"

---i'll take a little of that!

so...the recentered core theory is taking hold eh? i think it's possible.

Latest Oviedo, FL observations (my backyard):
37% humidity to 41% humidity in an hour...and no rain (not normal for Florida sunny, hot afternoon)

clouds thinkening and looking "poofier" (aka...moister than earlier)...nearly overcast.

Pressure from 1012 to 1009 in about an hour (can be normal in afternoon here...but usually accompanied by falling humidity before a thunderstorm...on a normal day).

what do I think??? We have a legit storm on our hands.
Welcome CCHS. Hope you get some rain. Looks like some may make it to the Waycross area...hope it helps.Link
Welcome weatherman
Hey there weatherman! Welcome aboard.

I'm up in the N Chuck area. ☺
PS-- SJ --
Thx for the welcome earlier...I know your name...been reading posts up here for years...even had some global warming email exchanges with Dr. M a year ago...but never have put down my $10 to join till now!
103. RL3AO
I just got home. Welcome Andrea.
lol ski ☺ Congrats on loosing the pop up adds!~) Well worth it if you ask me.
long range JAX radar really seems to show a more defined center...I do believe the recentered eye theory and am sticking to it.
can we all say tropical storm andrea wouldnt be surprise if a rapid intensfication process occur if it pops it may pop very fast sat indicates coc relocating with a tight centre which is a poss signal for intensifaction of system within the next 12 hrs
ahhh....SJ

Shhhh!!!! I use Firefox and AdBlocker...haven't been dealing with the ads for two years now!
Keeper, an RIC is pretty much out of the question, barring Epsilon-style freakishness. The conditions around Andrea are extremely borderline.
Posted By: cchsweatherman at 7:52 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

First time commenting on this site. I love reading what you guys have to say. I'm a 17 year old student at Cooper City HS and am known as the Weatherman at school.


Hey CoopWeatherMan! I'm in Miami. Glad to have ya aboard! You can learn a lot here and help others as well. Welcome to your new home site! I love Pistol Pete by the way! See ya!
Hey weatherman! I got to Flanagan HS ....
Looks like this storm beat all the odds so far! I guess if we knew it all,This would be no fun.
Weather radio is saying that the storm will be crossing florida over the weekend.
if we knew it all,This would be no fun.

Phenominal happenings make for fun sharing
Anyone know what time the next NHC update should be?
Nice meeting you guys.
Got a ?. Where exactly is that fire in SE Georgia because it looks like a band is hitting the vicinity with moderate rainfall. That's great news.
5:00, I think???

If they are doing it by the books.
Yes,It is just weird that soo many people study the weather and something strange like this happens to keep us on our toes...what's next?
nhc will do another advisory at 5 PM ..... in like 45 minutes basically... Also, I have noticed that Andrea weakened for a while and now she looks like she is getting stronger again ...any1 notice the same thing??
119. RL3AO
Next update will be 5 eastern.
appreciate it
Good afternoon, everyone. I see Andrea has received her name. And the next NHC update will be at 5, correct?
saw on our local news the nhc is fullystaff right now getting ready for the 5pm update . very rare in may to see this they said
ok - so if you want ME to tell her what to do this is it..."Andrea, please ____ or get off the pot!" It won't hit HERE - that is for sure - i say she's going north. I'll take my crow with a Rothchild Bordeaux after this is all over.

It won't hit here cause NOTHING hits here. It's probably the whole "dry on Sunday" thing that drives everything and everyone away.
125. RL3AO
It wont make it across Florida into the GOM moving 3 mph.
Around What time does Diurnal Maximum occur?
The highest wind ive been able to find was a tad to the north of the center which has winds of 43mph.

gg
floridaboy - I see what you mean by the tropical comment. Considering she is over warmer waters, her new center could definitely be a complete warm-core, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if they changed it to "Tropical Storm Andrea", and what difference would it make anyways? It's still a storm...
Hey you'll I don't mean to sound dumb but what does COC mean I have totally forgot. Thanks in advanced for the answer.
Sheri
AANDREAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Center of Circulation

kyle, tropical systems have much more mosture and are much more capable of quickly changing then sub tropical ones as far as I understand.

StormJunkie.com - Easily find models, imagery, marine data, and much more.
agree with kyle and florida boy....definetly going to go tropical with new core. i look forward to lush tropical downpours soon! clouds getting puffier and puffier down in O-Town
I think the Diurnal Maximum peaks in strenth about 6 am, just a little before sunrise.
(ESPI) for the last 30 days is -1.34
Welcome cchsweatherman. Im fairly new here myself. Here is my theory on Andrea. She will turn northeast, shoot across the Atlantic and hit here in Portugal (haha). However we do NOT need the rain. Had way too much this winter!
COC = Center of Circulation
That sounds about right 1900, and good to see you.
Thank you 1900H
CCHS, there are fires in south GA near Waycross, and also many fires in FL, as I'm sure you know.
4 hour 40 frame loop...5
Looks rather disorganized on satelitte imagery.

Image from ramsdis
Andrea's looking more and more tropicalish in nature, but I liked this morning's apperance better

RGB Loop
AVN IR Loop
WV Loop
Andrea shouild come here and put that fire out in Collier county.... all the smoke is blowing into here ... (broward county)
so...anyone doubting this new center will actually form an eyewall?? I think that is looking sketchy on the visible sat. it's a freakin mess in there....
Bad news is, it's pretty dry and might just fuel the wildfires.
hur23 - We were saying that she appears to be relocating her center a little more to the east, over what appear to be warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. We'll have to see what happens overnight...
Those model runs look like a bad game of twister:-)
GOM SSTs and Loop current/Gulf stream 60 Hour model Link
I'm not seeing a center relocation. Can someone show me?
Anyone notice the SHIPS model has it up to 65mph in 5 days? NHC is forecasting dissipation. I'm going more with the NHC, but it all really depends on where she goes...

A reloacation to the east seems possible and also notice the WSW movement now.
ANDREA is BANNED from the GOM..attempt no reformation there.
Oh yeah... her center definitley moved look on visible satellite imagery ...
SHIPS is pretty much always out to lunch with the strength predictions. They always aim high and every now and then, they get one right.
...an octopus on drugs....
That would be Jeanne GS.
What i see is several mid-level swirls rotateing along the much bigger circulation.
If andrea follows the ukmet it would benifit floridas drought and cause good breeze ;D ... Oh yeah and if u look on the water vapor then then the visible....the center is forming where those two new burst of convection are
ophellia???
also ..i dont like how the weather channel is showing a small cone...... The NHC is still confused as too where andrea will go ... doesnt make sense to me ... anyways im just gonna wait till the 5 pm to see whats going on
Correct 23, but that could lead to recentering.

ahh sorry if im talking to much ...... Could Andrea be fallling apart??? too me it looks like she is, kind of
Whats up guys and gals. I guess we are back here a little early this year. I guess this may be a good chance to break in the newbies at the beginning of the season.
yep.
Oh wow, if she "somehow", by some act of freakish coincidince that God does not like the U.S., got into the Gulf, I think there's quite a bit of untouched fuel there for her, and she has more time to strengthen...
Good to see you Jupiter ☺
hurricane roman:

COLLIER isn't the only place in need of help!

link to florida fires....this is a mess...don't know how to load images...so click on link instead:

http://www.fl-dof.com/wildfire2007/wildfire_map.html
The GOM would tear her a new one. Shear is off the charts everywhere in the eastern GOM.
What's up Junkie. Ok so I can see we are already getting the "what if it got into the gulf" crowd.
Could be HR. Either that or she is recentering closer to the ball of convection...One of the two...lol

Good to see you.

Quick Links - Easily find the best imagery, models, and other tracking data on the web.
If Andrea makes it into, and survives in, the Gulf, all bets would be off. Fortunately, that's not gonna happen.
If it were to make into the gulf it would at a very weak state and there would probably be nothing left.
This picture shows Andrea earlier, but you can also see the fires (see the smoke building up farther down after Andrea blows it down there?):



Thought it was interesting...
I know I was kind of joking cuz all these ppl here in dade and broward are all coughing and stuff lol .... but I know..thats why isaid i hope it follows the ukmet
183. RL3AO
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...SLOW-MOVING ANDREA REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
852
WTNT31 KNHC 092045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...SLOW-MOVING ANDREA REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.


Conditions at 41012 as of
(3:50 pm EDT)
1950 GMT on 05/09/2007:

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in (Falling )

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012
i think the center's a mess...anyone with a long track record of seeing these things: you think it can form an eyewall? or is it just going to be a messy looking tropical mass at that new center? I think it looks like the later...I am having trouble seeing where an eye is going to pop out....but...these reorganizations take time...
187. RL3AO
To slow 23 :)
Yay u remember me xP ...... yeah well im just waiting for all the other ppl that came on last Hurricane season to come ... like Stormtop ..haha
Thanks for the pic floridaboy, so why is Andrea in a "favorable" area, but not forecast to strengthen? Mystery...
Hi Everybody, Were getting choked out here in Palm Beach County with all the smoke. Here is an unbelievable map of the Existing Wildfires here in Florida Link
i think we could see a lot of storms in june this wait in tell the main show starts in july and augs


i think may be by the end of may 1st week of june we could see are B storm
and so it goes...
Wouldn't be surprised Taz - wouldn't put money on it, but would not be a shock...
Ok guys. Time to leave the office. I'll try to get back on later.
aww poor Andrea... the new track shows her dying soon xP lol..... I forgot what storm it was ..i think it was last year or 05 ...but it never wanted to die... wonder if Andrea will do the same
ski, there is little chance a eye will form. Even if it becomes truly tropical. The center would likely be covered with convection if it recentered and started to strengthen.

None of the pros seem to like the recentering idea though. May just be dying.
what is the ch of seeeing the W strom this year like in 2005?
Holy Hell thats alot of fires here in Florida... I had no clue!!! Dade and Broward are lucky
nic pic of Andrea, Kyle. and yes I can see the smoke from the fires!
The storm that wouldn't die was Epselon from 2005. That storm went fairly deep into December.
201. RL3AO
The interesting thing is since most of the rain is on the east side, if this stalls and dies before landfall, Florida wont get anything but wind.
SJ--- It's recentering...no doubt...also believe, die it will not. A good hardy tropical storm will be had.

(so...there I am, stepping on the cliff's edge my first day here...hope i don't fall!) Hee - heee
I think that was ophelia HR. Sat out there forever and ate the beach! Winds are kicking up again here in Richmond Hill, GA. Was quiet a bit ago with SUNSHINE out. Now it's yucky (yes, that IS a technical weather term) again.
So I see it's named now... it sure is getting the attention from the media; which is good to help aware people.

Come to my blog called Poll/Voting game. It's a fun contest that you guys can enter. Enter now because we still don't know the final results of the contest; so you still have a bit of time to enter. Enter fast. Also when this question is done I'll have another one right after. Thanks.

-Justin~
I'll put the balsamic vinegar reduction in a VERY pretty pattern on everyone's plates for the crow feast...maybe top it with a bit of demi glace too...
lmao ski, that is ok. I have already stepped off a few times in my three years...

Most recently with Andrea, happened to work out this time though ☺

I think we should call it foregeussing from now on.

ohhh that sounds good mel I love my crow with a good sauce (another technical word) :~)
SJ--- can't do any worse than the model that looks like a squashed spider
coc relocation occurring east of previous loc convection firing sw se ne quads also completing a wrap of energy around a more compressed coc which usually means a rapid intensification process has started or about to start possible shift to warm core would make andrea a tropical storm by 11 pm update.
That might be pushing it a little KOFTG, ok maybe a lot.
keeper and me...two peas in a pod...
It really is funny to see how much Cantorre is bad mouthing this storm....
Really doesn't even seem to think it should have been named....
He doesn't want a panic.
IMO,media's doing a good job.No hype
SJ--- he might be pushing for that to happen by 11pm...but not by tomorrow...i agree with you though...no eyewall coming... not without a long tail tapping moisture to the S and SE of storm.
That's cause Cantore wasn't paying attention and got on the wrong plane...wa wa wa...
Yeah but he normally has an attitude of excitement, now with this one it is more of annoyance
True weatherboykris, no hype, and even if it were to come to shore as a tropical storm this isn't a storm to get excited about, other than the timeing...
What's up BT, good to see ya.

So what is your take?

Recenter or no?

TWC giving an update...but Local on the 8's is overriding it! Whoops...
What is the bottom line? I live in Jacksonville, Florida. What is Andrea's potential? Could she strengthen...
Posted By: Bamawatcher at 9:18 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

True weatherboykris, no hype, and even if it were to come to shore as a tropical storm this isn't a storm to get excited about, other than the timeing...


That's what I mean.I was expecting tons of false hype.
That Swhartz guy on twc had some problems. He couldn't advance to the projected path lol
Andrea isn't a major threat what can a storm that is 45 mph do it isn't as bad as greensburg or Cat 1-5
I was somewhat optimistic this morning that the University of Florida might get a day off on Friday. It looks like no shot in hell of this happening now :-( To add insult to injury, the National Hurricane Center says that we would get 1/2" of rain or less along the coast. If this is the case then the month of May will suck in Florida because of all the smoke from the fires.

To make matters worse, no one wins the T-shirt from Weatherguy03 for corretly predicting the date of the first named storm. With a slow moving storm, a lot of beach erosion has already taken place. Is there any good going to come about from Andrea?

Hey CCHS Weatherguy, I am an alumnus from Cooper City High School - Class of 1984. Go Cowboys!
225. RL3AO
Does this end the streak of longest period without a tropical cyclone?
yes, according to doctor m the streak is over
Yes,it does.
RL3AO,

Look at the bottom of Dr
Master post.
Ya a strengthening would be unlikely, but again, everyone (including the NHC & Dr. M) was forecasting the storm wouldn't be named - but it was - so I wouldn't put my money on anything...
ok kids - time to get dinner going so my hubby doesn't think i've been sitting here all afternoon watching the weather (although that's what i've been doing...i really need to get another hobby).

I'll be back later.

Have fun!
Wow, first time I've seen TWC say they want this storm to hit and other storms to form and hit somewhere. I wonder if they realize that that want can go drastically wrong...because personally I would rather be in a drought then lose my house & property in a hurricane...
232. MZT
It's not completely dry. Relative humidity in Charlotte is up to 54%. It feels kinda sticky this evening. I can also see thunderheads building up to the south of here.

Looks like Andrea may get one more night over water to moisten up, even if she doesn't strengthen.
hello SmileyCentral.com
hey taz
that want can go drastically wrong...because personally I would rather be in a drought then lose my house & property in a hurricane...

Seriously kyle
...They want a good wet TS to douse the fires.

Would you rather loose some shingles and windows in a storm, or the whole structure to a fire?

That argument don't make no sense. Not to mention wants do no good, obviously, as most everyone wants them to go the other way all the time...
Looks like some nice convection popping up in the NE quadrant.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Nice Stormjunkie
Storm relative floater...Visible Link
hello : weatherboykris
IT'S OFF TO A BANG! or maybe a poof anyway. Good to see all the old timers on here. Been following you guys thru this one (can't wait for ST to show up:))thought I might say hi. I'm in tallahassee now and sure could use the rain. This one sure has been a WTF hasn't it. Keep up the good info. SJ your site is great, keeps me in the know in the off times. On a side note, since 04 these things have followed me wherever I go. So don't be surprised if this this year Tallahassee doesn't get slammed a couple times.
Good to see you Navarre ☺ And thanks!
evening StormJunkie!! That was bamawatcher earlier talking about Cantore....no me :)
This storm got me good. I said last night that it wouldn't be named...wake up and its Andrea. I would still say it isn't going to reintensify...but I said that last night and see where it got me.



the convection has made it from east to north, and now is starting fill northwest. Notice there is only wsw side is open with no convection. If the trend continues and the wsw side fills in, then "it is possible" we could see some intensification.....

If this comes ashore in savannah as a cat 1, Gulf Scot wins wishcaster of the year! LOL
I noticed that after I posted BT...Sorry☺ You two are gonna mix me up all season...lol
its cool SJ...i was waiting for that to happen with our handles as similar as they are.
I am out on the limb with thel tonight BT. I think it has a shot at recentering and organizing a little more.
If this was in the gulf, ST would have already been here! LOL
Hi all

I can't wait for Andrea to dissipate so that we can get rid of the hot dry W winds we are having in the NW Caribbean. This storm is shearing off all the clouds in our area and preventing some much needed rain clouds from developing.
It wouldn't be so bad if Fla was even going to get some good rain but this thing looks like little more than a weak wind event.

Ah well, Ho Hum
Alright SJ....we will see. Anything is possible!!
253. FLBoy
MIMIC is up and running now. Not much to see.
"ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

Am I the only one that doesn't buy this????
It's been blowing like crazy here near Daytona Beach for days...now it is completely STILL. One of the models has the thing going east.
Sweet Mimic ☺ Just wish the data was not that old.
257. V26R
Looks like its going to be a Florida Hit
MIMIC showing a real South, Southwest Move now
Only hope is that it will keep moving to the west and tap some Gulf Moisture for The Georgia and Florida Firefighters

Link
SJ, you should know by now not to listen to me! LOL
I told ya thel, I am out there with you. Could easily be wrong, but it looks to be moving a little W of N. Again, unless it is just falling apart.
if you look on the floater you can see the center nhc is following quickly and I mean quickly move south and then start turning south east. if you look closely you can see a spot were another center is present its very near the blow up of storms and appears to be holding still or moving slowly it looks like the older center is roating around it mostly likely the older center is going to die for the moment I am not sure if this is decoupling or replacement of centers.
I seem to recall that with weak systems in the very early stages the center is not only hard to pin point but tends to reform many times over until the storm strengthens and consolidates. Given the state of Andrea it will in all likelihood never ever develop a clearly defined center ( as strengthening is unlikely ) but multiple vortices rotating around a generally broad area of low pressure would be expected. I assume that sub tropical and tropical systems behave the same in this respect but if I am wrong someone can correct me
Wow, Mimic updates much faster then it use to.

I don't get that though. That shows the COC almost on shore...Don't make no sense.
"Posted By: ForecasterColby at 7:35 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.
Here's what I see. Andrea has been stacked very high into the atmosphere, with an upper low parked on top of her (kudos to Jedkins for that). The upper low has decoupled from the lower one, and is decaying rapidly. You can see convection wrappong closer to the center and the large convective band that was wrapping around Andrea's whole envelope beginning to decay. For now, the ULL will shear Andrea a bit until it dies (which it is very quickly doing). Once it vanishes, Andrea can establish an outflow, and maybe build a little bit more strength before the shear sets in."

For those that didn't see it earlier.... Colby did good work here I believe......
Ya I'm looking at the RGB float and I saw what (I think) appears to be a new center. Tell me what you think...

Does anyone have a satellite of andrea overlaying a map of sea surface temperatures? what is the temp beneath her.
Evening SC, nice to meet you. Sounds reasonable and would explain my confusion with the Mimic.

What part are you in? N Chuck here.

Evening kman and FLBoy ☺

Well, at least some of the smoke is gone...

HurricaneRoman: Andrea shouild come here and put that fire out in Collier county.... all the smoke is blowing into here ... (broward county)

Ah, so that's where it was coming from.

It's so dry and windy here, I'm expecting a few more fires to pop up out in the Everglades
hey SJ..... WHO YOU GONNA BELIEVE..... ME OR YOUR LYIN EYES!LOL
Depends on where her is C2...lol

Gulf Stream is fairly warm. Between the Gulf Stream and the coast of N Fla and Ga is cool.
I would say that is close to where the new center is. Maybe a little more to the sw.
Hi there SJ

Seems we are trying to find a center now. Hard work at the best of times unless you have an " eye " to look at
kyle..... little late I believe! LOL
Maybe the QS pass tonight will show where the center is
Andrea seems to be weakening pretty fast, it might regroup a little tonight at the diurnal minimum, I updated earlier on my site, my forecast remains unchanged.

Hurricane Warning
275. MZT
Interesting. Andrea may have bought some more time tonight by shifting centers?
yeah...where is the coc is it trying to develop a new one? ok i have g2g i will be down at the beach (jacksonville) and will be returning later with my anemometer results.
lmao thel....uh...I am going to continue foreguessing based on my past experiences and will continue to have less then a 50% accuracy ☺ ☻

I did put us right in the center of Ernesto though...lol
It will have to maintain the convection from now until about midnight if it is going to recenter and utilize the diurnal cooling period.
=0 I think I see an eye... look closely on satellite visible Do u guys see it???????

Haha im J/K i hope u know xP
lol Roman, careful with the E word.
It is clear exactly where the center is now. Checking out the GOES Water Vapor loop on the NASA Satellite web page, the center is on the northwest edge of the convection located to the southeast and south of it. The center looks pretty small too. It clearly has not formed an eyewall yet, but it could form a uniform CDO if the moisture from the southeast of it starts wrapping itself around the center. Andrea needs deeper thunderstorms to strengthen. I'm going out on a limb to say that Andrea is beginning to take on complete tropical characteristics.
i cant help but notice that a few of the models are crossing andrea into the gulf of mexico is this possible now?
Last year was funny =D ... who always claimed to see an eye... i 4got
Andrea does NOT have an eye - it's just a dry area, not a true eye. For it to really be an eye, you need an eyewall, which Andrea lacks.
286. RL3AO
Wow. CBS is clueless. Count how many factual errors were made in their opening statement on Andrea.

"Tropical Storm Andrea came on shore today to the surprise of Floridians. Andrea is the earliest named storm in history."
tell ya what....as soon as Andrea gets rain as strong as the frontal system in Texas i'll give her a chance to intensify.
Almost all of the dry air around the nortern half of the storm is gone. The South side still has some dry air, but it too looks to be shrinking.

Quick Links
I said center Hurricane Roman, there clearly no eye or eyewall
RL3AO, they actually said that?
lot of limb climin' in here tonight!! HOpe they dont start breakin'
There *is* clearly no eye or eyewall.
293. RL3AO
Yes Hellsniper. Its not perfect word for word, but they did say it was a tropical storm, that it came on shore today and it was the earliest named storm.
what would have to happen for it to cross into the gulf and why are some of the computer models hinting at it turning out to sea and some hinting for it to cross into the gulf and stay on a westward path?
Don't worry BT, mel is gonna fix up some real nice crow for us ☺ ☻
On the RGB loop it looks to be gaining a little convection to me, atleast on the N & E sides. That's impressive this time of day.

Comparing where the center is to the gulf stream it looks be sitting right on it.
297. RL3AO
well louisianaboy. It better speed up. It wont make it across Florida moving 5 mph. Also, if somehow it did make it across Florida, it would be torn apart by shear.
I don't think you have to worry about it crossing into the gulf. Andrea isn't that organized and moving slow at 4 mph. I don't think she would make it over Florida and reorganize, expecially not this early in the season.
wow...Andrea slowed from 5 to 4 mph in 1 post!!
well good this is one that i can just watch and be interested in not one i have to worry about myself....i get to watch from a safe distance hahaha
boy444~ Check out this easy loading big picture loop. See the big front that has been stuck over the midwest drowning it? If it digs deep enough into the Gulf it will sweep Andrea out to sea. If it doesn't dig deep & passes north of the STS, it would let the STS into the gulf. Crossing FL should weaken it to a low & shear there is forecasted higher.
The storm is really beginning to look like a classic weak tropical storm. Convection to the north and east of the center. The convection however is not the deep convection that you would normally find with a true developing tropical storm.
I was kidding about the eyewall =x....read my post right above that ...its just a joke form last year ..
RL3A0 i HEARD that right now too..... ridiculous..... I was like wth
Its looking slightly better as of recent, alot more thunderstorm activity then earlier, still mainly on the east side, but some heavy thundershower bands are strating to wrap around from the north headed towards the georgia/Florida coast and there is one thin squall of heavy showers near Jacksonville.
Still very weak for a named storm though.
Whats your 20 Hurricane Roman, I'm in Broward in Pompano Beach, lots of smoke today
Does anyone think that Andrea will drop south, through the keys, grow into a Cat4 and hit my house in Tampa?
I can't wait for those stupid posts...
310. MTJax
Skye, keep posting. You are known for having a clue in my book. You really think there is life left in this thing?
if you ask me i think Andrea is falling a part
312. MZT
Andrea is sending some moisture inland. Here's a line of showers headed toward Charlotte:

May 9 eve in Charlotte
clwstmchasr: Does anyone think that Andrea will drop south, through the keys, grow into a Cat4 and hit my house in Tampa?

Probably the same number who think it will veer out into the Atlantic, make a loop, and come down and hit Miami.
314. MTJax
Taz is a guy with a clue too.
you tell 'em how it is taz!!!
SJ's link shows that front well. I have that link, just takes a while for it to load up here.

Checking out some TRMM Last 3 hours rainfall. This is the best I've seen of the STS yet as far as rainfall.

Look at the drowning Nebraska has suffered in the last week.
I live in Broward and we had this stupid smoke all day ...on top of that i have a cold and my throat hurts and im really irrated today lol......
Ya she may be weakening, but she may be strengthening, based on how you view it. I see a new center that is wrapping new thunderstorms around it. Basically, what I'm saying is that Andrea is a weak, sloppy storm, but is looking better in the last few frames than a little while ago...

Andrea looks better than it did an hour ago.... and now there is a small burst of convection to the SW
Deep convection has all but disappeared from the western side of the circulation, with just a few shallow showers left However the eastern side is a different story, with increasing deep convection now flaring up.If it could rap around some we might see some slight intensification but haveing said that i think it will more or less hold its own and slowly begin to weaken if its not doing that already.
Taz, do you think Andrea is falling apart, or what?
Andrea is falling a part it will most likey be a TD by the 11pm or the 5am uodate if not sooner
Posted By: MTJax at 10:48 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.
Skye, keep posting. You are known for having a clue in my book. You really think there is life left in this thing?


lol MT. I thought just about the samething when I read his posts.

Good analysis Skye ☺

: moonlightcowboy i am not sure it looks like its falling a part then may be not lol
If they didnt lower her at 5 they wont at 11..... she was looking really bad at 5 but now she is looking abit better..and on my local news u see the convection on the east getting much stronger
Taz - I don't agree with you. She was falling appart earlier, but she's doing what she did last night - firing up convection and wrapping it around her new center.

I'm almost confident that she will remain at 45mph, and not go any stronger, but she won't be a T.D. by 11pm or 5am, we'll have to see after that though...
MTJax~ No life left once it leaves that sweet spot on the gulf stream. Hits land, it's over, unless it sits in that spot for a few days 1st & defies all models. & something unseen gets it across FL quick (pretty unlikely at this point). If it sits there & the front comes for it, it may enjoy a weakning run up the front.

There's more ifs with this one then some in the past, too many times in the matter of 6 hrs the front looks like it's digging into the gulf then suddenly dies down there & looks like it will go over the top. I think it's one reason Nebraska is taking the drowning. The front can't make up it's mind which way to go. This has been causing even the gfdl to flip flop between the 2 solutions.
...sounds like Andrea might like sitting on the fence!
Also Andrea is not over very warm water, and some upwelling is possible to lower SST'S further. Its chances of becoming more tropical aren't not very high given its slow and erratic movement at the present time.
331. MZT
The leading edge of the rain band is passing over Charlotte now... getting gloomy and breezy outside.
Skye - I can see what you mean about Andrea being placed over that small strip of Gulf Stream warmer water, but Andrea is embedded within a pretty much stationary trough, so she won't be moving anywhere too fast. Still, she ain't gonna be NEAR hurricane strength!
: kylejourdan2006 ok
what a waste of a perfectly good storm name
Cantore said what I said yesterday! People had no idea the storm was really a threat when the real problems existed...but were more concerned when they found out it had a name. I honestly think that the naming of storms bring more awareness...
336. MZT
My bet would be on another diurnal improvement tomorrow morning. She's done it twice, and the land air mass is not as dry as two days ago. I think she could even wobble off the Gulf Stream some and and still improve overnight.


all we have left is the south, then we will have a closed semi-circle around the center.

to my untrained eye, Andrea continues to gain tropical characteristics.......

too bad we will soon lose the visible shots! :(

"Posted By: StoryOfTheCane
what a waste of a perfectly good storm name"

we certainly appreciate you adding to the discussion! :)
Posted By: ajcamsmom at 6:08 PM CDT on May 09, 2007.

OK...in case anyone has another contest...I think the next named storm will be here by May 23rd...
If you here of anyone starting a contest about it, please let me know...
Lisa

HOPE I AM WRONG
It's dead as a doornail here in the Daytona area now...after near constant winds for about three days.
Ya I just checked out the WV imagery and she seems to have a "road block" of the dry air within a good perimeter of her center - so she shouldn't have a problem blowing up some thunderstorms tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a 50mph tropical storm, but anything higher is really not likely. Weaking appears NOT to be happening right now, but by Friday it should be happening.
Does anyone else have the problem where the NOAA SSD loops keep missing an image (they get to about 4% loaded, then stop)?
Can someone please tell me the likelihood I'll be playing tennis at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning?
344. MZT
I might feel like it's a waste of a name if this storm was named for just six hours, before a downgrade as it sloshed ashore. But it looks like she will maintain subtropical status into tomorrow, and maybe improve into a TS. So I think naming it made sense.
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 4:06 PM PDT on May 09, 2007.

what a waste of a perfectly good storm name


huh?
can somebody get off their arse and fix buoy 41002!!!
well if they named it obviously is a storm ... its not a waste ..... there was couple storms in 05 that only reached 40 mph.... it happens.. their is always weak storms in a season =D
sorry thel....im on my way right now!!! Just waiting for the chopper!
349. MZT
Beginning to hear some thunder in Charlotte now.
tell em Taz.... we can use the greek alphabet again.... we got plenty of names! LOL
This looks like a tropical storm
"Station 41002 went adrift on 02/25/2007 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 2143z. The station has been recovered and transmissions turned off. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the redeployment date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report."

USE A STRONGER FRIGGIN CABLE..... will ya Bama! LOL
Im not sure if shes strengthening or weakening .... hmmm ..this storm is tricky.... anyways... Im gonna say Andrea reaches a peak wind of 50 -55 mph
a closed semi-circle ...lol thel.

and no kidding with the dang bouy! Same thing last year with that bouy. Tie the knot tight this time guys...☺

lmao thel...

I think it gets caught up in the Gulf Stream eddys sometimes and that can not help the situation any.

ps...BT

Big props if you get that done...☻
thelmores thanks
Aren't one of the toughest things to forecast intensification??
once again sorry thel....our budget got cut! have to cut somewhere!!! Dont worry this time i'm doubling the amount of used fishing line.
oh look at the band that just went ashore around Jacksonville .... I wonder what they are getting from it... looks like a pretty good band to me
I just ran this image for anyone who may be confused on where the center might have gone...

fishing line!!!!
Why is there Hurricane warnings if the storm won't strengthen much?
Good Work JP on your info, now isn't intensification the hardest part of the storm to forecast?
kyle.... I am certainly confused about Andrea! LOL
Where do you see hurricane warnings Rlennon? There are "Hurricane Local Statements", which are complete different than Hurricane Warnings
Hilton Head..S.C. oceancam Link
Good to see you SG03 ☺

Yes it is.

Welcome lennon

Because intensity is the hardest thing to forecast...and what kyle pointed out as well as pat. Seas are huge out there right now. Killing the beaches.
Sorry, was reading and cooking dinner at the same time......My bad
Oh look!! If u look on watervapor it looks like convection is going to get around the whole center...... mayb she is strengthening
Fires are now burning in 55 of the 64 counties in Florida...this storm of fire is getting real bad.
new blog up
looks like convection is weakening to the north and strengthening to the south and east
there is a bad fire in Bay county, FL. on Panama City Beach. Some main roads closed there.
Its unlikely but somewhat still uncertain that andrea will intensify as its over water thats no warmer then 25 celsius as stated by the NHC and some upwelling is possible to lower SST'S further. Its chances of becoming tropical aren't not very high given its slow and erratic movement at the present time.A slow drift to the SW seems reasonable followed by weaken trend.Adrian
As Andrea gains more tropical characteristics it will be more and more affected by things like cool sst's, dry air and shear! She's not the ULL she used to be!
Jp were the fires this bad in 1998? They have cancelled School activities in some counties and everyday I wake up I see smoke.
378. MZT
We got our rain coming. OK, I'll shut up now with the local observations. But Andrea does bring rain. :-) Be patient in GA & FLA.
8pm public advisory is out... No changes...