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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:34 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

Throw away the calendar, hurricane season is here! The Hurricane Hunters are in the air, and found that the intensifying storm of the Georgia coast had acquired enough organization to be called Subtropical Storm Andrea. Here's the special advisory put out by NHC at 9am:


Special tropical disturbance statement
905 am EDT Wed May 9 2007

Satellite imagery and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the area of low pressure centered about 150 miles east of Jacksonville is acquiring the characteristics of a subtropical cyclone. The system continues moving generally westward at about 5 mph. If present trends continue... advisories on subtropical storm Andrea would be
initiated later this morning.

Dangerous surf conditions continue along the coasts of the
Carolinas... Georgia... and northeastern Florida. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.


Andrea has developed several bands of intense thunderstorm activity, well removed from the center. Tropical storm-force winds cover a wide swath of ocean surrounding the center. Winds from the 6:44am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite (Figure 2) were as high as 50 knots (57 mph) in the heaviest thunderstorms on the southeast side. Winds overnight at buoy SKMG1 located about 60 miles off the Georgia coast were as high as 50 mph, gusting to 56 mph. These strong winds will continue to bring coastal flooding and significant beach erosion from North Carolina to northern Florida today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Subtropical Storm Andrea shortly before it was named on May 9, 2007.


Figure 2. QuikSCAT image of the surface winds at 6:44am EDT Wed May 9. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Andrea is currently under about 10 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight, so only a small window of time exists for the storm to intensify. Andrea is very unlikely to grow to hurricane strength, due to the combined effects of increased wind shear and cooler waters it will find near the coast. Landfall should occur Thursday morning over the region between northern Florida and southern South Carolina.

I'll have another update on Andrea this afternoon.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ladies and Gentlemen, are you ready to rummmbbblllee?!?!
LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, NOW HERE IS ANDREA
wooo hooooooo!
I am totally crackin up over here. We may have a tropical storm and so far, not a stitch of rain - looks threatening but come ON already...
Radar shows,in a 30 frame loop..The circulations west side. Note the low swirl in the big flow..Link
Hopefully not a sign of things to come this seson.

Notice the name on NRL...

G
Man, I hope the region gets some rain out of this thing. Would be great to have a storm for us to talk about that actually serves a purpose for GOOD.
40knts max on these storms in the wind field..Link
The crow mixes well with the flavor of foot-in-mouth.
Well I was wrong, except on weatherblog's blog :)
Good Morning to all. The news is surprising after watching the news last night they said there wasn't a chance for it to be named well like usual they where wrong.
The backup FHMOC site says Andrea.
Link

Here it is on the Floater
FINALLY the NHC listened!!!

I told you so... it should have been named like 2 days ago...

09/1302 UTC 30.7N 79.1W ST3.0/3.0 90L
09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L
08/2345 UTC 30.6N 78.3W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/1745 UTC 30.1N 77.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/1145 UTC 30.3N 77.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/0545 UTC 30.9N 75.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/2345 UTC 30.9N 74.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/1745 UTC 31.6N 73.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/0545 UTC 33.3N 72.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L
Why does the Visible Image say Wed May 10 2007? That date is incorrect.
Link

Navy site says Andrea, too.
It would not surprise me if we have a 50-60mph STS this afternoon.
Nobodys wrong.The storm has been a good dodger of trends and always had potential if the enviroment and conditions favored her.But as usual,mother nature trumps with an ace.
22. IKE
"09/1302 UTC 30.7N 79.1W ST3.0/3.0 90L
09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L"........

And it's moved southwest.
So... what's in a name? jeez...
NO NO NO andrea has not formed yet

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!
Nice look at her on the floater ...Link
Look at this.

They often update before the NHC does since the NHC issues advisories at 6 hour intervals.
Its very likely advisories will start at 11am or a tad later.40-45mph winds being reported from recon.
That has Andrea so we do have andrea
Ya gotcha a storm laddies..Jacksonville & Waycross may have an dousing of the Flames...6
So, what's the record for earliest TS formation record in the Atlantic Basin? Is this a new record?
32. IKE
Buoy 40 miles SE of Savannah....north winds @ 31....Link
morning it still looks like it stalled from last night
34. IKE
It's just drifting SW.
No Michael it shouldn't have. We needed solid data, plus it got much better organized overnite. Ya just had to look at the QuikScat this morning to realize that and the satellite. Remember the popcorn appearance of storms yesterday?? Well look at how it consolidated more on the North and East side today. Now we have something.
Earliest tropical storm on record.

Link
A tropical storm made landfall on Florida on Groundhog Day before (I am not joking - look it up).
Morning all. Thanks Dr M!

Very interesting. Not sure it would have time to come around, but it did.
LOL...

Well, just look at louastu's link... LOL
Morning '03...Looks like I am batting 100%...lol...pure luck!
What effect will the smoke from all the fires have on this storm..

Will the smoke be drawn into the storm by the counter clockwise movement of the winds and heavier rain be caused by the increased particulate matter in the smoke? Something akin to seeding clouds....
Good to see ya lou.

Good question swat, I don't know the answer though.
Thanks louastu.
hopefully it will put out some of the fires....
46. V26R
Very Suprising
Has any of the Local NWS Offices started issuing
Advisories yet?
SJ. We all get lucky every now and then!!..LOL
48. V26R
On Andrea yet (Left that out)
In other words, Panic Mode?
Looks like it will fan smoke over my house. This has actually already started.
Alright y'all, back to work for me. Keep an eye on Andrea.

Quick Links - Models, Imagery, Preparedness, and much more. All from one page easy to navigate page.
may not be the first to form this early but it might be the stongest
Good Morning,

Do anyone have the possible paths that this storm may take?

Thanks
"So, what's the record for earliest TS formation record in the Atlantic Basin? Is this a new record?"

...There's no such thing as "earliest". Why? Because there's been tropical or subtropical cyclone development in the Atlantic in every month. :-) Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr tend to be extraordinarily rare... but they have occurred. 1951 actually had a Cat 3 just off the East Coast in May! THAT is unheard of for a pre-season storm.
Subtropical Storm Andrea forming
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:30 AM EDT on May 09, 2007


dr m you need to fix that and have it say Subtropical Storm Andrea is her


and yahooooooooooooo how rare are may storms and when was the last time we saw a may storm?
What effect will the smoke from all the fires have on this storm..

Will the smoke be drawn into the storm by the counter clockwise movement of the winds and heavier rain be caused by the increased particulate matter in the smoke? Something akin to seeding clouds....

Affects on the storm will be minumum but its time to intensify will be short as shear is forcasted to increase somewhat and water temps are marginal at best and dry air is all over the place.A 45-50mph STS seems possible.
30 frame radar from Jacksonville..Link..still a broad center ..with mutiple centers rotating around the mean.
57. V26R
Adrian, any thoughts if its gonna scoot up the coast up my way?
Nope, not the strongest either.

Link
Even the weather channel is classifying it as a subtropical storm.

But here's my question. Yesterday Dr. Masters said this was a Hybrid storm, neither cold nor warm core. And as far as I understand it, a subtropical storm has a cold core center. So how did it acquire a cold COC at its present lat/long near right on the gulf stream?
Posted By: V26R at 10:16 AM EDT on May 09, 2007.

Adrian, any thoughts if its gonna scoot up the coast up my way?

Not a threat in my opinion but again should be used as a wake-up call that the season is coming fast and we might be in for a long ride.
"may not be the first to form this early but it might be the stongest"

Nope... based on recon, she's probably around 45-50kts sustained. Since 1900 there have been five storms to form between March 1st and May 9th. All five obtained at least 45kt intensity. The strongest one was a storm in the northeastern Caribbean in 1908 that peaked at 85kts; it formed on March 6th. Granted obs weren't exactly stellar in 1908... but given the significant shipping traffic to the Caribbean, I'd presume this to be at least fairly accurate.

...and a storm forming off the U.S. East Coast on May 15th, 1951 actually obtained 100kt intensity... pretty unreal.
According to the models its gonna die out in the next 24 hours but the models also said 36 hours ago that this thing would just be a couple of showers. ;)
63. V26R
Its Upper Level Low is keeping the Cold Core
Characteristics
Remember what the NHC put out IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES lets see if it does.
Hurricane 23:

Do you have a link for the possible paths?

Thanks
What models? This is what I was seeing several days ago:

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:05 PM CDT on May 05, 2007.

The CMC still shows a tropical storm developing:


The NAM is far more impressive; not only warm-core but very deep as well:


And much stronger as well.


The same thing happened to Alberto as well... I was the only one who thought that the models might be right. And it is NOT cold core, either at the surface or in the upper levels.
67. V26R
Has the TWC Mobilized yet?
lol good point 23
starbuck89~ It started off cold core cause it formed as a low got cut off a cold front tail & spun up. The gulf stream has been giving it warm characteristics. It generaally takes 4 days for a cut off low to become fully tropical under good circumstances.
srada~ click on my name there's a spagetti model in my blog with different model paths.
Posted By: srada at 10:21 AM EDT on May 09, 2007.

Hurricane 23:

Do you have a link for the possible paths?

Thanks

Here are the current models...

h
They are flying low...

Wed May 09 2007
1404 GMT
Latitude 29.6 N
Longitude 80.8 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 689 feet (210 meters)
Flight level winds 280 degrees at 27 knots (31 mph)
Temperature 18 C Dewpoint 16 C
Surface Pressure 1009 millibars
Surface winds 280 at 25 knots (28 mph)
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 14
The bamm and bams.er..thats NOT allowed
Michael. Subtropical.

Here are some model data...Link

And here...Link
Navy site already puts it at Andrea...I expect the first NHC advisory out by 10 AM CDT...
Link
Where did u get that from Sky?
Covection has decreased on its eastern side.
Interesting to note that the GFS wants to take it more SW. I think the NOGAPS was doing that as well.

Intensity forecasts...Link
Mornin gang....Patrap, darlin', how goes it? Time to fire up the blog and make some jello shooters! Where's GulfScot and Nash! :) Had some rain for J'Fest eh, Pat?
WELCOME HURRICANE SEASON 2007!!
Ok lemme try that again...
Link
Stall. Develop lots of nice convection and DUMP RAIN ON US!

B
You betcha reelDr. JazzFest was a hoot and Holla. Nice to see ya. Those guys are around. A "swirlie early," Im saying..LOL
Good Morning All, just got on WU. Have they ever named a SUB-tropical storm before? If so, when? This is highly unusual, isn't it?

Thanks, Andrea, my eyes are killing me from the smoke.


not sure how accurate, been since last season since I tried! LOL
The decoded Recco is from WU under the Tropical section. Over the winter I had found a program where someone had got around the passwords for the dropnodes & other stuff all decoded.. Looks like the plug has been pulled on that since..lol.

Here's plot from the buoy in the band to the east of center.

Has anyone seen the new GFDL MODEL pretty interesting.
Smoke = dust? We often see comments about sahara dust inhibiting storm formation. I have also seen discussions in the past about seeding clouds to diminish their energy off-shore. Since the path Florida smoke would take into the storm would wrap it around to the east side is that why there seems to be more rain there? And, will that 'steal' the rain from Georgia and Florida; 'wasting' it all out at sea?
We can use an early swirly here Pat.....choke, choke, hack hack!! Sure did want to be there fer Fest.....may try to get over fer da VuDu fest later. Just happy to have some rain here......garden's happy this am.
Vortex Recon Decoder
Storm INVEST: Observed by AF #303
Storm # In Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #: AF303
Date/Time of Recon Report: May 09, 2007 13:26:40 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 31 02 ' N 079 23 ' W (31.03 N 79.38 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 063 Nautical Miles (72.45 miles) From Center At Bearing 64
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 050 Knots (57.5 MPH) From 136
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 051 Nautical Miles (58.65 Miles) From Center At Bearing 062
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1003 Millibars (29.617 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 20C (68F) / 304 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 20C (68F) / 305 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 18C (64.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 6 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 50 KT NE Quadrant at 13:04:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 2:33 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Good Morning All, just got on WU. Have they ever named a SUB-tropical storm before? If so, when? This is highly unusual, isn't it?

Yes, they have. Ana in 2003 was named as a subtropical system. It later became fully tropical.
Ya beat me thel:) looks good.
CANTORE ALERT!!!
Jimbo is broadcasting from Folly Beach, SC (Charleston)...
Look out Charleston!
Mornin'. What a strange storm, still bamboozling everyone. Will it. Wont it. Thats weather for you.

Here the cicadas are shreiking incessantly, all night long too. Calling the rain. Driving everyone crazy. Bah !
"Have they ever named a SUB-tropical storm before?"

Yup, they've been doing it for several years now. Ana in 2003 was but one example. The official record shows her as Tropical Storm Ana, because she eventually completed the transition. But when first named, she was Subtropical Storm Ana.
Good Morning All, just got on WU. Have they ever named a SUB-tropical storm before? If so, when? This is highly unusual, isn't it?

Yes, they have. Ana in 2003 was named as a subtropical system. It later became fully tropical.


Well I hope for Georgia and Carolina's sake it doesn't stall out there and become tropical. Anyone have any data from the hunters yet?
Oh, Lordie.....our first Cantore alert of the season.....I need a jello shooter! Hey Thel! Sky.....nice to see y'all.....been a while.
Thanks everyone for the insight!
VORTEX MESSAGE...

000
URNT12 KNHC 091356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/13:26:40Z
B. 31 deg 02 min N
079 deg 23 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 64 deg 063 nm
F. 136 deg 050 kt
G. 062 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 304 m
J. 20 C/ 305 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 13:04:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
hey 23, weren't you the one that said look before you post! LOL
LOL!!!Thelmores.
How can i put vortex in my google earth???? whats the info for that???
Thel was that a decoder you used? If so Can I have a link?
RELEASE THE CANTORE!

http://mos.stanford.edu/ee272/proj00/kraken/kraken.jpg
eburris,

column b from the vortex gives the latt and long

B. 31 deg 02 min N
079 deg 23 min W

107. IKE
Pressure at the buoy east of St. Augustine is now falling...winds west at 29 mphLink
The doc must have a connection at NHC to be able to use the Andrea already. Probably the 11AM advisory will start the hurricane season. I hope it blows up so we can get some rain in north florida. Peace
vortex decoder link
http://flhurricane.com/recon/
vortex decoder

Good seein ya DrLaura, ya know how some of us can't stand to miss recon:)
Houston...we have liftoff!!!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Welcome to Hurricane Season 2007!
Early-season subtropical storm forms off the southeast U.S.
Coast...
Satellite imagery and aircraft data indicate that the low pressure
system off the southeast U.S. Coast has acquired subtropical
characteristics.

At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued
along the southeast coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound
Georgia southward to Flagler Beach Florida. A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of subtropical storm Andrea was
located near latitude 30.8 north...longitude 79.3 west or about 140
miles...225 km...southeast of Savannah Georgia and about 150 miles
...240 km...northeast of Daytona Beach Florida.

Andrea is moving generally toward the west near 3 mph. A continued
slow motion and a gradual turn toward the southwest are expected
during the next 24 hours. Along this track...the center of Andrea
is expected to remain offshore of the U.S. Coast through at least
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...mainly to
the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Since the heaviest rains associated with Andrea are expected to
remain offshore during the next 24 hours... Andrea is not expected
to produce significant rainfall over any land areas through at
least Thursday morning.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...30.8 N...79.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
NHC has issued advisory #1.

Link
Looks like that low that formed off the eastern tail of Andrea is starting to get some spin now.

B
The basic difference between smoke particles and dust ( in the context of an earlier question ) is that smoke ( by the fact that it is a collumn of hot air ) causes an isolated updraft, and it can exist even in moist air. Dust has no inherrant local updraft with it, and if it is in moist air it falls. So smoke can cause cloud, dust cant.
Incredible guys!!!
So could it possibly be that I was right and the crakies weren't? NAH it MUST be coincidence that I thought it wasn't subtropical till today.


I gotta love you guys, see next time, learn the lesson, don't hype.

LOL
Wow...
Andrea is on the navy site
I was first at posting the advisory. :-P
Jedkins, kiss my grits! LOL
123. IKE
Amazing...on May 9th!
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40(12hr) 35(24hr) 35(36hr) 30(48hr) 25(72hr) 25(96hr) 0(120hr)


ON THE NAVY SITE....

green ball01L.ONE

LOL

guess they gotta get warmed up too! :D
Visible image.

ff

Track-Short lived should make landfall as a TD.

H
Its all just fun though right? No hard feelings between us I hope, LOL


Might be a busy season this year, you can't be for sure just yet though.


I'm, lovin the NHC forecast path, plows it right into Florida! LOL
128. IKE
Looks like a NE Fl. landfall....is the projection.
5....Link
shear has been building..
Someone's trying to have it both ways...
23, i've seen visible images before..... that ain't one! LOL
Sky, I count on y'all to do all that watchin' so I can just pop in and find out what's goin' on. Still, I miss y'all when I'm not here!

Release the Cantore LOL!!!
Fixed thelmores.
135. V26R
Its all fun and games until Andrea Forms
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAGLER BEACH,FL TO ALTAMAHA SOUND,GA

And so begins the rush to the Home depot..
That forecast track is actually best for Georgia. The main rain shield is well to the north and northeast of the center right now, so it should bring more rain to GA than FL if it landfalls in North FL.
Bring it! Lookin' for RAIN HERE!!!
DOUSE THE FLAMES ANDREA, DO YOUR BIDDING! LOL
140. IKE
It may just die a slow death over north Florida....then we'll be complaining about too much rain!
141. MTJax
I will take the hit for saying 1008-1007 MB was the max. My bad. I believe this season will have several suprises with the way the year has started.
wow!!!! i cant believed they nanmed it!
boo yah!!!!!!!!!!!
how do i put vortex data into google earth? is there an auto plot thingie?
save the mid-west, I doubt anybody would complain bout too much rain!
146. IKE
Local Hurricane Statement

Statement as of 11:00 AM EDT on May 09, 2007

... Early-season subtropical storm forms off northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia coast...

... New information...
a tropical storm watch has been issued from the Altamaha Sound in
Georgia south to Flagler Beach. The low pressure system off the
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia has taken on subtropical
characteristics and is moving very slowly to the west.

... Areas affected...
this statement recommends actions to be taken by residents in the
following counties in northeast Florida... Clay... Duval... Flagler...
and St Johns.

This statement recommends actions to be taken by residents in the
following counties in southeast Georgia... Camden and Glynn.

... Watches and warnings...
at 11 am EDT... a tropical storm watch has been issued along the
southeast coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia
southward to Flagler Beach Florida. A tropical storm watch means
that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within the next 36 hours.

... Storm information...
at 1100 am EDT... the center of subtropical storm Andrea was located
near latitude 30.8 north... longitude 79.3 west or about 140 miles...
northeast of Daytona Beach Florida.

Andrea is moving generally toward the west near 3 mph. A continued
slow motion and a gradual turn toward the southwest are expected
during the next 24 hours. Along this track... the center of Andrea
is expected to remain offshore of the U.S. Coast through at least
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... with higher gusts and are
continued to the open waters. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
this is expect to be primarily a marine event and for land areas the
most significant impacts will be gusty winds and surf along the
immediate beaches. Marine interests should remain in port and
interests along the beaches should continue to keep items secure
from the current high surf.

... Storm surge flood and storm tide...
storm tides have been running one to two feet above normal and will
continue over the next several days. This may cause some minor
coastal flooding at the time of high tide. High surf has been in the
seven to ten foot range and will continue over the next day or so. A
high risk of rip currents will continue through late week with
choppy surf conditions.

... Winds...
at this time... the strongest winds are expected to remain well
offshore over the coastal waters.

... Inland flooding...
for the next day or so... significant rains are expected to be
confined to the offshore waters and immediate coastal areas.
Rainfall of one to two inches could occur over the beaches.

Significant rainfall is not expected from this system
over most of the fire areas of interior northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia over the next 24 hours.

... Tornadoes...
tornadoes are not expected to pose a significant risk over the next
day or so.

... Marine...
tropical storm force winds are possible over portions of the coastal
waters with sea of twelve feet or higher. Marine interests should
remain in port until winds and seas subside.

... Next update...
the next update will be issued at 2 p.M. Or earlier should
conditions warrant.

A graphical version of this hurricane local statement can be found
on the National Weather Service Jacksonville web site at

Http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/jax/ghls/hls_main.Shtml
Huh ! I feel so left- out here........
ok....why didnt i get paged?!!!! this is huge
Can you plot the models please!
FORCAST DISCUSSION!

WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL LEG OF THE MISSION WAS FLOWN AT 300 MB FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SEVERAL DROPSONDES WERE RELEASED. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT THERMAL CROSS-SECTION...NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD CORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL. THE WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER...SHOW WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES THAT...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. ALSO...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED FROM MORE THAN 100 N MI YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 50-60 N MI THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THE 40 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM 850 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD...ABOUT 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. SINCE ANDREA IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED WITHIN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...BUT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS...TAKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING ANDREA INLAND...AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND THEY WILL NOT GET ANY WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE ANDREA MIGHT BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THE COAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 30.8N 79.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 79.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 80.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 81.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

All the models are on the wunderground Tropical Page now.
154. V26R
Hey Trap Check your Mailbox Please
Let the mayhem begin.....
156. IKE
It's raining in Jacksonville....

"Observed at: Normandy Heights 32205, Jacksonville, Florida
Elevation: 20 ft / 6 m
[Light Rain]
69.4 F / 20.8 C
Light Rain Haze Smoke
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 61 F / 16 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 2.7 mph / 4 km/h
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1012.8 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 1.2 miles / 2.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 100 ft / 30 m
Mostly Cloudy 2500 ft / 762 m
Overcast 3000 ft / 914 m
(Above Ground Level)"
Here it is guys the track and intensity at landfall.

hh
IKE, nothing coming down in Atl. Beach yet, where ARE you??
I know somebody who's name is Andrea, she won't be too happy. lol,
THIS WAS PART OF IKE'S POST:

Significant rainfall is not expected from this system
over most of the fire areas of interior northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia over the next 24 hours.


NOT GOOD NEWS. :(
161. srada
Had to step away, Thanks Hurricane23 for the model paths. Which model do you generally go with?
162. IKE
I'm 300 miles west Of Jacksonville...in Defuniak Spgs.,Fl.
163. MTJax
ST3.0/3.0 30.7N 79.1W
Changed to 3 while I was sleeping
It never gets to I-95..LOL..
Latest GFDL brings Andrea to 70.5 knots, 998mb...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2007050906-invest90l/slp1.png
I think the GFDL shows this. Andrea moves SW then S, then a trough is forecasted to move closer to the East Coast later this weekend. How about a loop back out to sea??
DeFuniak.....beautiful......love it over there! Still not raining here. :)
Working & lurking form "brushfire land". If Daytona area is the landfall, here's hoping that we get rain with the wind or my/our job is going to get very interesting & busy - real quickly.
Score: wishcasters 1, non-event/name/storm/tropical [me included]: 0
"eburris
how do i put vortex data into google earth? is there an auto plot thingie?"

I click on "ADD PLACEMARK"...... and enter the latt and long and a name.....
Early swirly, loopy sloopy.
How about a loop back out to sea??

Entirely possible. How about some moisture down here to squelch the flames?
...uuuuummm, when will it cross over into the GOM? lol
we will take the rain how far south can this go ?
how about loop, and ANDREA part #2! LOL
177. MTJax
Full 1200UTC early tracks

Early Guidance

Full 1200UTC early tracks
"Posted By: moonlightcowboy
...uuuuummm, when will it cross over into the GOM? lol"


...uuuuummm, I doubt very seriously it will! :)



this is why i love this time of year Link
Posted By: stormybil at 3:15 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

we will take the rain how far south can this go ?



Look at the cone,LOL.
Patrap at 3:10 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.
It never gets to I-95..LOL..

Yeah, you right about that!
Its a shoo-shoo. Its peaking right about...NOW.
Well its been a long time WU, now you guys really have something to yak about. Happy TS day!
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) X(12)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12)

CHARLESTON SC 34 8 2(10) 2(12) 3(15) 2(17) 5(22) X(22)

ATLANTA GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)

AUGUSTA GA 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 6(15) X(15)

SAVANNAH GA 34 13 5(18) 3(21) 2(23) 2(25) 7(32) X(32)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 19 11(30) 5(35) 2(37) 3(40) 6(46) X(46)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 14 13(27) 6(33) 1(34) 3(37) 8(45) X(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

ORLANDO FL 34 4 8(12) 6(18) 3(21) 4(25) 8(33) X(33)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 5 7(12) 6(18) 2(20) 4(24) 8(32) X(32)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

FT PIERCE FL 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 6(23) X(23)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 6(17) X(17)

MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12)

FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15)

VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 4(16) X(16)

TAMPA FL 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 3(17) 6(23) X(23)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 2(18) 6(24) X(24)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13)

ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 4(14) X(14)

APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)

COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

I'll have my crow with a side of lettuce! 2007 season begins!
Does anyone have the area of development maps that break down cyclone development by month and area of the Atlantic?

+2 internet points to whomever can produce them first :-)
187. IKE
Looks more impressive now on visible satellite then it did earlier today.
Thanks Kris. +2 internet points for you.
Wed May 09 2007
1452 GMT
Latitude 29.6 N
Longitude 77.8 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 689 feet (210 meters)
Flight level winds 200 degrees at 29 knots (33 mph)
Temperature 21 C Dewpoint 16 C
Surface Pressure 1011 millibars
Surface winds 190 at 25 knots (28 mph)
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 15
wooo hooooo - wind is KICKING UP here in Savannah and this thing isn't even supposed to hit us at this point (florida is getting it right?).
Where can I find what the models are predicting for Andrea? I'm in Pensacola and we really could use some rain too!

Bring on the season....I'm ready!!
193. MrJ76
It is the first time I have ever seen a complete circular "Cone of Destruction". More of like a dart board....
Well,"getting it" is a relative term.It's forecast to dissipate right on the coast.
Here is a closer view of the track and the centers closes approach to the coast as of this advisory.

hh
Posted By: MrJ76 at 3:33 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

It is the first time I have ever seen a complete circular "Cone of Destruction". More of like a dart board....



It is odd...the area the storm is in is the only part of the basin were I've seen cones like that.Ophelia and Franklin had them as well.
Morning all.

So, I am with mel. Where is this thing gonna end up now? N Fla or N GA?

mel, N Fla, would really likely bring you the worst of it as the northern side is the strongest.

Also wondering if the SW side is so dry because it is starting to move away from the Gulf Stream?

Quick Links - All your tracking needs from one page. Imagery-model-wind data-marine data and much more.
198. IKE
It is getting windy in Savannah, GA.

"Observed at: Savannah, Georgia
Elevation: 49 ft / 15 m
[Overcast]
74 F / 23 C
Overcast
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 61 F / 16 C
Wind: 23 mph / 37 km/h / 10.3 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 31 mph / 50 km/h / 13.9 m/s
Pressure: 29.84 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft / 731 m
Overcast 3900 ft / 1188 m
(Above Ground Level)"...

And the pressure is falling....
Can't wait for the new vortex message.
Link CNN
Link FOX


Link MSNBC

Major news outlets starting the hype
Hey there BT, gonna get busy in here later me thinks.
Impact occuring from Charleston down thru Savannah,Ga.7
i don't get it really SJ - one of the models up in the posts have it going really far south - when i look at the loop on the tropical prediction center thing it looks like it's joggin to the NORTH. And CANTORE IS IN CHARLESTON? What is he doing in Charleston if it's going SOUTH? (I hope everyone knows I'm being sarcastic with the cantore-meister.) So what's the deal? And what does it mean when the pressure is falling in Savannah, Ike? (I'm still learning - just know my weather station has been saying it falling for a bit now...although it tells me also that the wind is at 2.1 miles per hour - that may have something to do with my husband installing it on our porch, with the house blocking the WIND.)
Side, Sad, Stupid note....

2 tourists went kayaking in the surf yesterday at Kiawah Island (just south of Charleston, SC)...Needless to say, they are now missing....
Savannah Beachcams..Link
I just don't see that 30kt wind shear Dr. Masters is talking about:

Not even Patio furniture in pool worthy..LOL
mel, for the most part, your pressure falling means the storm is getting closer, but it could also be a sign that it is intensifying.

That said, I think the Charleston NWS office should get props for the forecast discussion they issued yesterday morning! Great call guys and gals!
209. IKE
Pressure usually rises in the morning...falls in the afternoon. It's a little early for it to be falling. Probably means rain on the way.
HMMM...i think perhaps i need to throw my WEATHER STATION in the pool. Forget the patio furniture. Stupid piece of junk.
Not even Patio furniture in pool worthy..LOL

Hey Pat, you don't sink Nova's doghouse do ya?
212. IKE
And it could be intensifying....related to the pressure.
im going with hurricane 23 maps this will not slam into any land and will move south hugging the se coast . for a while
whats 300 MB equivalent to in feet? anyone have a chart that explains MB into feet?
Junkie, looks like the Charls office outdid Jax! LOL

Heard about those kayaker's on the radion..... THEY HAD NO LIFE VESTS ON!!!!!

Darwin awards to them!
Novas house is the couch here.
yea kris, looks to me that if it can stay north of daytona, it will be in favorable to marginal conditions as far as wind shear is concerned.
Posted By: stormhank at 3:49 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

whats 300 MB equivalent to in feet? anyone have a chart that explains MB into feet?



30000ft
melwerle...LOL!
Great question SH, and if you find that chart please wumail me the link.

Thanks
anybody know if recon left, or is still in the storm??

don't have anything since the vortex!
Yep thel, that is two for the boys from Chas, and zero from the Jacksonville crowd...lol

☺ @ '03
Posted By: thelmores at 3:55 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

anybody know if recon left, or is still in the storm??

don't have anything since the vortex!



The plan of the day says they're in 'till 2 PM EST.
Right on que...the new report.pressure's steady

530
URNT12 KNHC 091553
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/15:35:30Z
B. 30 deg 56 min N
079 deg 46 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 119 deg 089 nm
F. 199 deg 048 kt
G. 118 deg 087 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 308 m
J. 20 C/ 308 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 13:04:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 117 / 43NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Link

here are the millibar heights!!
stormybil: just in case how would you like your crow served and with a side of what?
They say max surface wind in the SE quad is 50mph.
Thye say those winds are 105 miles from the center.
i know what it says, but where is the data! LOL
who has a link to "raw" recon data??
"Thye say those winds are 105 miles from the center."

typical for a sub-trop system
Its hurricane season time for all ya lurkers to decamp and come back into the light.. (funny how everyone comes out once 'Cane season starts)
We can watch the storm in radar view now. 5
Good to see you odw , welcome back. I think lefty may even be roaming the blogs somewhere...☺

Back to work y'all.

StormJunkie.com Also check out the Quick Links page for easy navigation of the most used tracking sites.
Is this the norm for a sub trop system that forms to have 57mph with 1003mb. or does this say that its in the middle of getting strength?
rapidly losing convection this noon..
sorry to disappoint you orion but most of us have been here. just commenting in other blogs however the trolls are starting to come back out of the woodwork. even more so now because of your comment
The storm has peaked as expected..a leveling if ya will.No further strengthening is expected.



looks like we may have some new convecting in the mid-doughnutt region! LOL
tell ya what this is an ugly looking storm from above.
The Up-pulse that gave the convection a boost overnight occured over the warmer SSTs.The center is now west of that area,into cooler SSTs..5
ALRIGHTY then - naptime for me. I'll check in later to see what is going on. Have fun!

Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9 marked just the second time in the past ten years that a storm formed before the official season began (the other being Tropical Storm Ana in April 2003).
I dub thee Raggity Andrea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg
So it's official now huh?

Grats Char NWS !!

We knew they were right from the start!!
Posted By: thelmores at 12:10 PM EDT on May 09, 2007.

{Picture was here}


looks like we may have some new convecting in the mid-doughnutt region! LOL



Yes, there is some new convection in that area but the rest of the system is losing it.
SS-ROFL!!
251. WSI
"whats 300 MB equivalent to in feet? anyone have a chart that explains MB into feet?"


Answer
.

the COC is so broad, I am having a hard time deciphering motion and speed. seems almost stationary wobbling around!

bbl, gotta get some work done! why can't we have STS blogs on weekend's only! LOL
Can somebody explain to me the difference between this storm Andrea being a "subpical" storm and a storm that is a tropical storm?
she had sub for lunch...so she sub tropical...ha ha ha ha(sarcastic laugh)
is it me or where did on the dust go ???

lol
national radar Link
257. IKE
Looking at a visible satellite...seems to be holding it's on. I don't see any weakening.
sub-tropical shows characteristics of a warm-core and a cold-core system. Typically the highest winds are not right by the center of the rotation, but about 100 miles away from center. Tropical is a pure warm-core system and you know the rest.
260. MahFL
WeatherByrd....have you heard of Google ?

Subtropical Storm defination
what i find rare is that we are seeing are 1st name storm be for the East Pacific dos that is so rare
probably missed this discussion already, but any thoughts on what the wildlife smoke would do to a storm? obviously saharan dust is not so good for keeping a storm going. how about smoke?
263. IKE
Latest GFS has Andrea eventually crossing into central Fl.Link
Hello Andrea and the 2007 HURRICANE SEASON! WELCOME! I ask that you go easy on everyone again this year. Thanks!

Peace
Posted By: pottery at 2:50 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

"
The basic difference between smoke particles and dust ( in the context of an earlier question ) is that smoke ( by the fact that it is a column of hot air ) causes an isolated updraft, and it can exist even in moist air. Dust has no inherrant local updraft with it, and if it is in moist air it falls. So smoke can cause cloud, dust cant."

I could see that argument if the smoke was interacting very close to the source of the fire where there is great heat. In this case the fires are a long way away and the super warm air must have cooled greatly by the tine it is swept up into the circulation of the storm. That would leave us with mostly ash and very little heat.

The reason I bring this up is I was watching the storm firing heavier rain bands to the south south west of the center and sweep those to the east. I was wondering why they were forming in that location after the brush with the coast. I was wondering if they were being fired by the ash or if the increased heat coming off of the mainland was causing it...
Wed May 09 2007
1559 GMT
Latitude 31.8 N
Longitude 80.7 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1017 feet (310 meters)
Flight level winds 30 degrees at 45 knots (51 mph)
Temperature 18 C Dewpoint 16 C
Surface Pressure 1008 millibars
Surface winds 20 at 35 knots (40 mph)
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 17


Wed May 09 2007
1620 GMT
Latitude 31.8 N
Longitude 82.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 20014 feet (6100 meters)
Flight level winds 30 degrees at 31 knots (35 mph)
Temperature -15 C Dewpoint -43 C
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 18

& they are headed home
267. MTJax
A reconnaissance plane this morning found the low east of Jacksonville had a homogenous temperature profile -- in other words, little temp. change from one sector to the other -- indicating the system is now less baroclinic but still not purely tropical either. It's neither warm or cold core so the circulation has been upgraded to subtropical storm "Andrea" with a few areas of winds near 45 mph in some of the stronger thunderstorm bands mainly to the east & southeast of the center; there will be little change in strength before slow weakening begins by Thursday. A tropical storm WATCH has been posted for the First Coast BUT I'll go back to what I've harped on the last several days: THIS SYSTEM WHETHER TROPICAL, SUBTROPICAL, HYBRID OR COLD CORE WILL NOT HAVE EXTREME IMPACTS ON THE AREA:

-- high seas & surf with a high rip current risk through Thursday & some beach erosion

-- gusty but not damaging winds

-- periods of rain primarily along & east of Highway 301....especially I-95 corridor to the beaches

-- inland fires will continue to be fanned by gusty winds with little hope for much rain though there will be better thunderstorm chances Thu. afternoon through the weekend.

Published Wednesday, May 09, 2007 11:11 AM by mburesh
I wonder why there was never a Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Wow, looks like western side is falling apart right now.
now why would this subtropical hybred storm be surpising to anyone that has been paying attention to it .it is just enough to get the name andrea used up he he but anyway a good thing to watch over the comming season cause your going to see more storms like this one just as you did last season but the origion is slightly different but the case is the same untill the NAO changes its ocillation these types of storms will develope and reek havic along the coast as far as errosion is concerned .watch these storms casue they will intereact with true nature tropical storms and see what happens as they influence the steering flow and you will know where to be of watchfull eye as foar as land fall . have a good one .
Dew
NICE, steady soaking rain here in Atlantic Beach.....
I have posted my thoughts here, basically slow drifting and weakening.

Hurricane Warning
NOOOOO it's not June yet!!!!!!!

LAST year we were suppose to have an April Storm but didn't and it was a very quite season; now this year we have a May storm and no one expected it...of course, we've been watching this for a week now so there was a small chance.......

thanks for the updates and I guess we have something to watch now.
Just curious I know it is early, way to early for a storm to come over from the eastern Atlantic, but are those storms from Africa starting to creep north a little???? And of course tomorrow they could start to creep to the south again.... Just wondering if there was any relevance in what I was looking at....
seflagamma, GOOD TO SEE YA! :)

oh, and BTW..... it's a MAY storm! LOL
you know in life, alot of times when persuing "anything", its all about the chase!

now that we have a named storm..... ho-hum! :D

the chase the last couple days was fun..... now the STS hangover! LOL
Well, we finally got the first good, soaking shower here in Savannah. Too bad it didn't last long, but looks like there'll be more on the way.
"Posted By: StormJunkie a
Wow, looks like western side is falling apart right now."

True, I think it's still "trying" to transition, and making an attempt (a weak one) to close off its COC........

of course, thats an untrained eye! LOL
If anything! It's a good indicator that the hostile conditions we had last year are not going to be present this year, if anyone was doubting an active season! Last year, this storm woulden't have even been a question.
Say bye to bye to andrea if this trend continues as convection is decreaseing and personally i think the NHC should have waited a tad longer but its to close to the coast so they had to take action.

Convection greatly decreasing
thelmore, thanks, I realized I said April so went back and corrected it! LOL!!!

I've been around for 2 years now just don't post as much as I use to and usually just lurk here and post every now and then.

But in "season" I check in everyday!!!!

soon all of the "season" folks will be returning.

Hi everyone!
Gams
Bring on the rain!

I see a lot of people posting pictures/images but they aren't explaining them. Would it be too much to ask for an explanation with pics? It would help out us new people a lot.

Thanks
Posted By: thelmores at 5:17 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.
you know in life, alot of times when persuing "anything", its all about the chase!

now that we have a named storm..... ho-hum! :D

the chase the last couple days was fun..... now the STS hangover! LOL

AMEN, THEL!
Andrea isn't very impressive for something with tropical storm force winds.
Everything iam looking at indicates continued weaken at maybe at a faster rate then indicated by the NHC.
It is subtropical because it was not formed in the tropics. It was formed in the subtropical region of the globe which is that region just outside of the tropics. Se below...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical
1 mb is equal to 2.088543 pounds/ft Sq.
626.53 = 300 mb
The dry air is having here for lunch.This system will not be around by tommorow morning.Bouy observations and satelitte imagery confirm this.

g
It'd be nice if the weather stations at the Navy Sea Towers off the Georgia coast would update. They haven't updated since 8:30 this morning, and they are the closest stations to the center.
It's not ingesting dry air...the thunderstorms are just collapsing.Either way,I agree with you.SSTs are barely sufficient now,and it will soon start upwelling some pretty cool water.
Could this do something in the GOM????
The new vortex report should be out soon...expect a rise in pressure.
Andrea is a nighttime beastie - I think, sitting over the gulf stream, she likes the High pressure that sets in nightly now in the SE, as part of our impending desertification.
Its fighting off some dry air on the west side.
295. FLBoy
Forget about much beneficial rain. These rates are ridiculous.



The gulf stream is supplying Andrea with steady supply of warm water. I think she is having trouble with this dry air. Have a nice day.
Patients? Is hurricane a doctor?
Andrea is looking sick. Guess it is the diurnal minimum coming up. Perhaps she will revive tonight, but for now she looks tatty.
If this system were in the middle atlantic no upgrade would have taken place but due to its proximity to the coast the NHC had to err on the side of caution.
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 1:53 PM EDT on May 09, 2007. (hide)
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:28 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Say bye to bye to andrea if this trend continues as convection is decreaseing and personally i think the NHC should have waited a tad longer but its to close to the coast so they had to take action.

Convection greatly decreasing


Patients young one..... patients.... time is on her side... this is a momentary fluctuation... expected....

Thanks still feel young at 29.
Cofirms my thinking!

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...POORLY-ORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL STORM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135
MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
Adrian...it confirmes EVERYONE'S thinking,LOL.Anyone with eyes can see this storm is weakening.But,and this is a big but,it has started to look bad this time of day each of the past three days;only to blow up overnight and look better than before.Will that happen again?Hard to say.We'll need to wait and see.It isn't ingesting that dry air,and shear isn't a problem yet.So,I'm thinking this is likely diurnal.Then again,what do I know?At midnight last night I was calling it dead in Taz's blog.
305. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Can someone help me clear something up? For the past few years, I've always heard from the weather authorities that they only name tropical storms and hurricanes. And that is exactly what they had done. So why have they already jumped on naming this storm Andrea, when it isn't even a tropical storm? When I was a kid, I think they only names hurricanes. Last year my husband stated (only half joking) that he thinks they try to plow through the names as fast as they can to create hype and sensationalism. And then the media has more to feed on, and Jim Cantore has more opportunities to stand out in the driving rain wearing a blue rain slicker and using the word 'pounding' in every sentence. Fill me in if I am missing something. Thanks.