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Subtropical Depression 22; Stan's death toll 1500 and rising

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005

Subtropical Tropical Depression 22 formed from a non-tropical low 300 miles southeast of Bermuda. This low is not entirely tropical in nature--there are some substantial horizontal changes in temperature like one finds in regular mid-latitude low pressure systems, and the maximum winds are found in a curved band to the storm's northeast, well away from the center. Storms of this nature are called subtropical. If this system continues to intensify and attain maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, it wil be named Subtropical Storm Vince. See the Hurricane FAQ for more information on subtropical storms.

Wind shear over the system is about 10 knots today, which is slightly favorable for tropical storm development. However, in the noon to 1 pm EDT time frame, wind shear from the southeast increased and blew the deep convection away from the center, which was exposed. The center re-formed to the northwest under the deepest convection, and now TD 22 is looking more tropical, with the circulation center positioned beneath the main convection. Wind shear is expected to fluctuate around 10 knots through Monday, which should allow some slow intensification. After that time, higher shear is expected. TD 22 is over water of 26 - 27C, which is just warm enough to support a tropical storm. However, its current track will push the storm just south of Bermuda on Sunday, where water temperatures fall below 26C, which may cause some temporary weakening before the waters warm up again. By Tuesday, when the storm is expected to turn north, water temperatures again fall below 26C, and slow weakening should result. However, the forecast beyond three days has a higher than usual level of uncertainty, because most of the computer models are forecasting that a second tropical cyclone may form behind TD 22 by Monday and steer the storm more to the west. In any case, intensification beyond a strong tropical storm is unlikely given the marginal sea surface temperatures and wind shear.


Figure 1.Sea Surface temperatures below TD 22 are just barely high enough to support a tropical storm. The blue color (26C) is the dividing line between temperatures that are warm enough and not warm enough to support a tropical storm.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized today, and now has 20 knots of shear over it. Development is not expected through Sunday of this system.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time, with over 1500 deaths caused. The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. In a freakish double whammy, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala Friday, causing additional damage, but no deaths. Also bizzare is the volcanic eruption that occured during the height of Stan rains in El Salvador on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens. When you add these events to the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rocked Taiwan at the height of Tyhoon Longwang on October 1, one might wonder if there is a connection between seismic activity and hurricane activity! There isn't.

October outlook
Historically, 20% of all Atlantic tropical storms have occured in the month of October. In a nomal year, this means we can expect two tropical storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. According to Dr. Bill Gray's October 2005 hurricane forecast issued on October 3, this year we can expect an above average October, with three tropical storms, two of which become hurricanes--one of those a major hurricane. We have already had two named storms this month, Stan and Tammy. Vince seems like a good bet by Sunday. Long range computer model forecasts continue to show that conditions for breeding tropical storms will be excellent until at least the last week of October, so two more named storms--Vince and Wilma--will likely result by October 21. This would tie 2005 with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season ever. It is interesting to note that in 1933, the final three storms all showed up after October 25. If 2005 follows a similar pattern, we'll have Alpha, Beta and Gamma in addition to Vince and Wilma before it's all over. Dr. Bill Gray is not forecasting any November storms to form. However, we should get at least one, given the current pattern and continued above-normal sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Typical tropical storm formation areas for October.


The next update will be Sunday around 11 am, or later today if something interesting happens.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Masters for the latest information.
Dr Masters, if you are still here. I see another swirl below TD 22. Around 21N 61E, not a lot of clouds but a counter clockwise spin running south and in tandum with TD22. Is this anything or just an upper level low?
Dr. Jeff, thanks for the update and the typical tracks for Oct. Have had plywood on windows since Dennis (panhandle area)! Took down the front of house a few weeks ago though. Today looks like a good day to take down the sides and back of the house...tired of living in the dark :)
Jupiter, got to do the same today, plus take down plywood. Looks like the southern part of the state is most likely to be hit by any Oct. storms now. BTW, GO GATORS. Gator fan until UK plays, I bleed blue after having lived in KY for 25 years. Can't wait for roundball season lol. Football is my first love, just no luck with the Big Blue. It has warmed up nicely here and sunny. Off to the beach in a little while.
BTW Jupiter, grew up in your area...Martin Co.
Hiya from Nassau, The Bahamas :)
Our skies have been like peas soup all this week and that "wonderful" heavy rain that was over FL is now being pushed right over us, thanks to dry air from the west. Even my balcony door is leaking and they are calling for more heavy downpours this afternoon. :(
Ah well ...
However, I did get to cover The Bahamas World Track and Field Championsip Team as they visited a few of the islands. (We won gold in the womens 400m and silver in the men's 4x100m) At least that was some hectic fun :)
Hoping for a quieter season for everyone the rest of the year :)
I think that by Monday at least one and perhaps two storms are named.the remnants of TD19, now entrained in an upper low, are going be southwest of Bermuda by Sunday. The fact is the farther west they come, the better the chance for development. The theory is that TD 19 gradually turns hybrid, then warms the cold low that it is a hybrid with and becomes a storm. The threat area for this is New England or the Maritimes next Monday and Tuesday...I don't think it will come all the way back.

This post was taken from Joe B. from accuweather.com everybody talks trash about him but it seems like he is right about T.D. 22 and he wrote this post on Friday.
Hello Vince! I expect we'll be seeing you as 2/3 of Our neighbors still have tarpaper or blue tarp temp repairs from Ophelia - they did not fair too well in the downpour we've had for the past few days. Now the sun's come out & it's getting warm - really warm & humid. Power was out for an hour or so this am & Carolina Beach's lake has flooded for a 3 block radius. We have a moat at our cul-de-sac - just deep enough to cause you not to want to stop - thank goodness 421 is slow down at our end!
code1, know what you mean about the "cave" home. Last year we boarded up for Francis (lucky again) left it up for 2 weeks because Jeanne was out there; then Jeanne got out of our range, so we took down the boards and Jeanne did a loop headed back. Up the boards went again! Broward lucky again but Jupiter and his area were not lucky, twice!

Looks beautiful out there today in Broward county. I may try to leave work a little early this afternoon!

Posted By: seflagamma (12.10.219.38) at 3:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2005.
Dr Masters, if you are still here. I see another swirl below TD 22. Around 21N 61E, not a lot of clouds but a counter clockwise spin running south and in tandum with TD22. Is this anything or just an upper level low?


That's the upper level low pressure system that spawned the surface low that turned into TD 22. That upper level low is creating wind shear over TD 22 that is keeping it from developing very fast. If the two separate more, then the shear will decrease, allowing more intensification of TD 22.

Jeff Masters
You can say that again. I lost about a month of work due to those two hookers last year. Oh well the house faired well and it brought the neighborhood together.
MyBahamas,
You cover Track & Field. One of my peers has a niece that is a pro, won a Gold at the last Olympics. We all follow here around here and her Aunt has traveled the world watching her run since she was very young. Her name is Sonya Richards. If you cover Track you probably know who she is.
Gamma
Thank you Dr Masters for answering my question! Now it makes more sense.
14. dcw
Tammy also formed from an ULL, didn't she? STD 22 seems to be moving due west now for several frames, perhaps the ridge is stronger than was thought?

ROFL just realized the abbreviation for Subtropical Depression *rolls eyes*
"STD22" ??? it took me awhile to realize on this site it means SubTropicalDepression instead of what it means in the Doctor's office!
uk met and the gfs continue to dissipate std-22 thru 48 hrs. the canadian weakens it but maintains atkleast and small area of vorticuty so will not say it fully dissipatexs it. track of std22 is very low confidence. heres what the nhc thinks

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/13...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MOTION WAS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THE LAST
FEW IMAGES SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER 48 HR OR SO...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK
FORECAST AFTER 48 HR WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR. THE
SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SOME PULSES OF
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE
CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE
COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.

2 PM keeps it at 35 mph., 1009mb. It is moving WNW at 15
i doubt it will survive thru 48 hours.
do you think it will be named?
i doubt it. most global models dissiopate it in 24-48 hrs and the gfdl disipates it in 36 hrs.
Hey Lefty,
Are you mainly into the tropics, or just weather in general?
weather in general. i been tracking the rain in my area and loving it lol. 5 inches so far. and i love i mean i love winter storms. can't wait. with this hurricane season and no signs of elnino this will be a very bad winter. very cold and expect 2 or 3 realy strong nor'easters. i expect atleast one storm of a foot ormore here in va. i track nor'easters like i do hurricanes
Very cool!

Here is a link for you. Familiar with the merry go round effect?
Link

Thought you might find this link and site interesting.
yeah thanks
seflagamma & dcw, LOL...had similar thoughts, but being how many have had "close calls", I won't really laugh...had a near STD experience myself many years back...

By the way Floridians - don't you love it when all forecasts call for rain and sunny skies rule...probably not many on here today, outside enjoying the reprieve..about to do same, although chainsawing limbs/hauling off - not my idea of fun...might go fishing tomorrow, see what Katrina/Rita left alive...no LOL there...

Side note..Had major computer freak-out last nite...was on NHC's archives, after found strange file (1GB!) on desktop, couldn't trash it, hung up my Finder-couldn't relaunch,..blank blue screen w/ spinning beachball of death..restarting put machine in sleep mode, finally gave up and pulled the plug...This morn. plugged back, restarted, booted back up normally, all files intact, nothing lost as far can tell..Thank God for Mac OSX (so far)!!!...and the strange file was poof....no geek here, 2 years experience..

Back to weather - Caught up on all posts this morn...man that's a huge ULL that spun off STD22...westerlies dominate Gulf for now...about only area of near-immediate trop concern will probably originate in E Carribean, if convective cells (NHC mentions) near islands move West..

Lefty, ..know your watching the games now...just wanted to say your post around 7:39am GMT - excellent analysis man....
That storm to the northwest of the Canary Islands looks interesting to me.
Seflagamma lmao! I'm in healthcare as well. Lefty, don't know if you saw my early (around 5:30 am) post, probably snoozing then. Got your storm chasing gear ready yet? Looks like you might need it! Doc, don't ya hate it when that happens?
College football..is that were everyone is this afternoon?
Daughter went to FSU so while I don't watch college football do try and keep up with the big Florida 3 (FSU,UM,UF). Actually she drove back to Tallahassee last week to meet up with friends and go to the game.
We are more into NFL. Already made my picks for tomorrow and Monday Night; got my sheet into the pool. Would sure like to win for a change! We are Dolphin fans around here. Hope they keep doing well after last year's heartache.

Well to all of you College Football fans, hope your team wins. got to get somemore work done. later
Watching cnn tv they said that there were 1,400 deaths from Stan in Guatemala.
StSimons, OMG how???????? flooding?
Well cnn.com says 'only' 373 deaths, it's possible the talking head got it confused with the Kashmir earthquake.
Sounds more realistic. Does anyone know if climatology/weather has anything to do with quakes as well?
code1, Yeah, it scared the s$#% out of me! 1st time in 2 years use machine froze, had apps quit time to time, nothing serious as I've learned to click "save" as I work, especially in Photoshop..this was weird...

StSimons, Stan's flooding toll hopefully won't rival Mitch's..very well could...poor folks still getting hvy rains...
1,400 dead is correct....mudlise triggered by Stan.
lol I hate winter storms,they often have cold steady rainds with some breezy winds or snow,I overwelmingly perfer tracking tropical cyclones,more exiting and you do not have to worry about shivering to death.
We did not get the rain as expected in SWFL just a couple of inches...very dry, hot and humid....southerly flow should keep us above normals temps for awhile. I would think this will keep our water temps off the coast nice and warm for one of those "most likely" tracks in October. Is it rare to have so many ULL's kickin it like Jackie Chan this time of year? They seem to be such major players this season.
mybahamas! Haven't seen you lately, not coming on the same time I guess. Sorry you getting all our rain. We're still in low pressure trough... altho' am very glad for sunshine!
lol jed. thats why u have to wear layers. only wintser storms are storms the whole family can go to the nearest hill and enjoy life. or like last year qwe mad a giant snow ball the size of a car, no lie. or just making a snow man with ur 4 yr old. thats why i love winter. in a matter of hours the whole enviroment is diferent. nothing is the same and so pure and white. and late at nioght with a brisk ne wind if u go out on the deck its quiet and smells so fresh. like heaven
with the way infrastructure is in Latin America, I would say that 1400 may be conservative when all is said and done. It's hard to get official census as it is, let alone when wall of mud takes out a whole set of villages. Very sad.
Tropical cyclones have heavier precip and stronger winds,and best of all it isn't 50 degrees or less,I have had a couple of stron nor' easters come through,not completely boring but nothing like a tropical cyclone.The reson is because HEAT is a transfer of energy, hurricanes have WARM CORES which allows them to get stronger,also because of this they suck up well more water vapor,aloowing the convection to be stronger in combination with the heat energy they suck up.In fact remnant moisture from tammy has provided heavier rains in the far eastern half of the nation,more than even strong nor easters can do.
Of course if you like them fine I am not blasting you,but telling my oppion,the reson why I live in florida is because I do not like winter.
I agree Jedkins, that's why I moved back south. Lived right on the line in KY, got huge snowstorms in the mtns. at times, but was mostly sleet and ice storms. Started in Nov. and didn't quit until end of Mar. I admire those who love it though. I loved the snow, and miss it at times (not very often though) but hated the aftermath when all is ugly, icy, slushy, and collldddd!
jed not comparing strength i am sayign every weather event is unique in its own way and winter is family time. thats why enjoy winter as much as hurricane season. plus nor'easters are just as complex as a cane. and u haven;t lived till u seen thunder snow
Redemtion Jupiter!! Did ya see that TD? What ya watchin' everyone?
Most of the time in florida it rains very hard when it really isn't supposed to,we had like 80 inches last year which was widespread across florida.
I have seen thundersnow in michigan before with a winter storm very cold and breezy,very strange to see snow and lightning,I don't mind a month or to of cold winter storms though.
LOL, hate putting on all those layers! Makes it so hard to go on a potty break!!! Used to tank-tops, shorts and flip-flops. But will definitely be reading up and learning about winter storms now that I found this group! Guess it'll change from tropical to some other name???
once saw our fave Jim Cantore get major startled by a thunderboomer during a snowstorm. That's when I learned they can go hand in hand!
I hear ya Lefty. Amazing isn't it. Site to see. I lived far enough south, we didn't get it to often. Scared the $h%* out of me and we lost power most times because of trees in the mtns. falling on the power lines. Not good to be without power when it is cold, I'll take no power when it is hot anyday. I have been through both. Thank God for generators!
Have yet to have T-snow here..LOL..but Houma was the lucky recipient of a rare Christmas snow last year - a whopping 3/4"...yet few to the North had one...would have loved to seen our record snow 1899 - 16"!!!
vt is killing marshal. telling u national championship. if texas, sc and vt all run the table it will be a crime if vt isnot in the nation championship game. specially since they play in the acc, the strongets conference this year
I've seen thundersnow when I was a kid in NE Arkansas..we all thought the world was coming to an end! LOL. Snow is beautiful but where I came from 26 yrs ago, it only happened once or twice a winter(mostly ice storms) so it was not worth that long cold miserable winter for a few days of beautiful snow. Give me a nice South Florida winter any time...that is our best growing season and the yard is beautiful that time of year!
Going to see snow to us in Fl is what you do when you take a winter vacation and go north for a week!
StSimons, back to serious, 1,400 dead in Central American. That is terrible, remember Mitch, didn't it kill around 10,000 if I remember correctly. It is sad they do not have the communications to get advanced warnings or the enviornment to help them live through these disasters. So sad.
Allo cgable :)
Long time no see, indeed! hope all is well :)
sefla, unfortunately, my track coverage was the luck of the draw. I'm a photojournalist who covers gov't news; but no one else was around who could shoot and write. Therefore, they sent me with the team ;-)
Hoping for a quiet remainder of the season for all of you, even though NHC calls for 2 lows to form in The Bahamas in 72 hours :(
Ah well ...
Poor 'Herd. After R. Moss, not much thunder anymore :)
bahamas! maybe the lows will get pushed out fast! ::G::
we can only hope!
you ever come to FL on assignment?
hey lefty, your Hokies are good, but the FSU Seminoles are right behind you in the AP....and they are also on a winning streak.....
whoever is watching sat/radar, does it look like the TD
excuse me "STD22" is breaking up a little and starting to spin with the ULL that is to it's SSW???? just wondering if anyone can advise
I like summer in florida in some ways better than winter mainly because you get alot more rain and thunderstorm activity,you have to wait for fronts which are brief and never dump alot of rain unless they stall out or have tropical connecvtion associated with them.
no no no!!! jed!!! jan - early apr here is fantabulous!!!
you can beat those blue clear skies and cool temps!!!
cgablesgal,
how long have you lived in Coral Gables? Sounds like we have a lot in common. We do not like cold weather or having to wear layers of clothing...LOL

I really need to stop this and go key payroll.
be back soon.
fronts of course almost never come through by late april and do not come through again untill mid october on average,this year looks like it may take till november which is get because fronts as I said earlier don't provide much rainfall unless they have a tropical connection with them,and only come through every 4 to 6 days.
as always, enjoy the chatting, have to head to dog club meeting in plantation, will be late ::GG:: or on island time as I say... as I am to be there at 4 and I need at least 45 mins to get there...
I do not like cool temps and dry weather,I like atcive stormy weather accept when I am have anything outdoor related which I do alot of.
gamma. 18 years. we chat later!
hiya cgable ... used to spend my summers in Miami and now at least a fortnight each year in North Miami Beach.
Sometimes I do have assignments in SFL; but I'm too far the totem pole to get the good trips that often ;-)
BTW, do any other models call for two lows to form or be in The Bahamas in th next few days ?
bahamas, next time in NMB, we should get together and toast surviving yet another hurricane season! Now I am REALLY OUT
Too bad florida is not warm with alot of rainfall ALL year long,sometimes I do get sick of the heat but when it does cool down that cuts off the tropical connection and then it begins to dry out.
from the tropical disscussion

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A
LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND THE CENTER IS BEING EXPOSED ON THE S
SIDE OF A CLUSTER OF TSTMS. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE AND HAS GENERATED A MORE
SUBTROPICAL THAN TROPICAL SIGNATURE WITH AN EXPANDED AND
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 54W-62W. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
OVER BERMUDA TONIGHT AND ON SUN AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED
NWD.


std22 will not make it thru 48 hrs. thats per all global models
found something interesting on hurricanes causein earthquakes

HURRICANES can trigger swarms of weak earthquakes and even set the Earth vibrating, according to the first study of such effects.

When Hurricane Charley slammed into Florida in August 2004, physicist Randall Peters of Mercer University in Macon, Georgia, had a seismometer ready to monitor any vibrations in the Earth's crust. He did so for over 36 hours as Charley travelled briefly over Florida, then slid back out into the Atlantic.

As the hurricane reached land, the seismometer recorded a series of "micro-tremors" from the Earth's crust. This happened again as the storm moved back out to sea. Then, as Charley grazed the continental shelf on its way out, it caused a sharp seismic spike. "I suspect the storm triggered a subterranean landslide," says Peters.

More surprisingly, the storm also caused the Earth to vibrate. The planet's surface in the vicinity of the hurricane started moving up and down at several frequencies ranging from 0.9 to 3 millihertz. Such low-frequency vibrations have been detected following large earthquakes, but this is the first time a storm has been found to be the cause
It is the immense pull from the vortex that sucks up water vapor and heat energy,that is how upwelling occurs,depper cooler waters are risen to the surface fromn the suction that is pulling upward into the storm.
well yeah sky. when u have 40-100ft waves crashing down on the ocean floor its like beating a drum.
what about hurricanes causing temperature changes that could trigger earthquakes?
the latest gfdl just gradually weakens std 22 till it dissipates tommorow night. i will be suprise if the maintain her intensity at 30kts at the 5pm advisory. but u never know. i dobt there are 30kt winds any where in the system. most deep convetion as waned and cloud tops have cooled and the center is exposed
hydro tem[ature changes would have to be so severe, say 200-300 degress to affect the crust that much. its the weight of the water crashing against the ocean floor like when u beat a drum so those vibrations cuase plates to have more pressure on them and possibly give slightly. we aren't talking massive quakes here. anything less than 2-3 on the richter scale and it would have to be a strong storm say like charl;ey or katrina to have that much effect.
Lefty, thanks for providing the update which confirmed what I thought I was seeing.
Sky, wow, that was interesting.Never made the quake/cane connection.
Jed, even though our SF winter by some people's reasoning is beautiful but they are too cold for me most of the time.
My idea of paradise is sunny, 85-90 days, 70-75 night, by the pool, or in the pool,frozen drink in hand with good music in the background. At late afternoon or evening, in the hot tub with the fire pit blazing....

For the past month, my back yard has been wet, yukky, hot, humid, all the furniture stacked up and secured...you get the "not so pretty" picture of the last month....
be back in a lil bit. its time to cook some food lol
Thanks for the info Skye, was wondering. Lefty, thanks as always man! seflagamma, your kinda winter sounds good to me. Anyway, my 4 beer chickens on the grill are yelling they are done (my turn to bring meat). On my way to the beach to celebrate the Gators win! Nice day in Destin! Catch up later
From a recent email from a friend (I hope no one takes offence at any of these - I do find humor in most of these even though I've been through some major hits and evacuated 5 times this year and know people closeby who have gone through the worse):

YOU KNOW YOU LIVE ON THE COAST WHEN:

You have FEMA's, the Red Cross's, and Catholic Charities's numbers on your speed dialer.

You have more than 300 C and D batteries in your kitchen drawer.

Your pantry contains more than 20 cans of Spaghetti Os.

You are thinking of repainting your house to match the plywood covering your windows.

When describing your house to a prospective buyer, you say it has three bedrooms, two baths and one safe hallway.

Your SS # isn't a secret, it's written in Sharpie on your arms.

You are on a first-name basis with the cashier at Home Depot and Lowes.

You are delighted to pay only $3 for a gallon of regular unleaded.

The road leading to your house has been declared a No-Wake Zone.

You decide that your patio furniture looks better on the bottom of the pool.

You own more than three large coolers.

You rationalize helping a friend board up by thinking "It'll only take a gallon of gas to get there and back"

You have 2-liter coke bottles and milk jugs filled with water in your freezer

Three months ago you couldn't hang a shower curtain; today you can assemble a portable generator by candlelight.

You catch a 13-pound redfishin your driveway.

You can recite from memory whole portions of your homeowner's insurance policy.

You have had tuna fish more than 5 days in a row.

There is a roll of tar paper and roofing nails in your garage.

You can rattle off the names of three or more meteorologists who work at the Weather Channel.

Someone comes to your door to tell you they found your roof.

Ice is a valid topic of conversation.

Your "drive-thru" meal consists of MRE's and bottled water.

Relocating to South Dakota does not seem like such a crazy idea.

You've been laughed at over the phone by a roofer, fence builder and a tree worker.

A battery powered TV is considered a home entertainment center.

You don't worry about relatives wanting to visit during the summer.

Your child's first words are "hunker down".

Having a tree in your living room does not necessarily mean it's Christmas.

You know the difference between the "good side" of a storm and the "bad side."

Your kids start school in August and finish in July.
StellarCyclone

I am still laughing!!! I can relate to everything on that list!!! I have a "Hurricane Closet" with shelf for all of our supplies and "camping gear" just in case.
I have jugs and bottles of frozen water in the freezer...hey last year I didn't need it but my family in Palm Beach County were very happy my neighbors and I had all of our extra freezer space filled with ice...they took all of it within 3 days after each hit....

That was not at all offensive, it was funny reality...
Thanks for the laugh.
Skyepony and Lefty:
Check out the area where Stan made landfall. The earth's crust there is not like in most places - it seems the eye must have passed more or less straight over the San Martin volcano at 95 deg. 12' 36'' W - 18 deg. 34' 10'' N.
The idea of the hurricane triggering the quake is fascinating but chilling. I know pounding of large waves on the seabed is a possible trigger, but in this case, if there is a link, maybe the direct effect of heavy rainfall on a volcano's core could be a likely suspect?
Quoting Leftyy we aren't talking massive quakes here. anything less than 2-3 on the richter scale and it would have to be a strong storm say like charl;ey or katrina to have that much effect

If this is true was the earthquakes (both over 5) that hit with Longwang & Stan (nether a Charley or Katrina) both coincidence?

My theory~ Charlie ran over a pretty stable fault line. Stan & Longwang more active areas, purhaps the fact those storms ran into very tall steep ridges of mountains as well. With the winds applying their force of energy to the steep land, ocean beating the floor, coupled with weaker fault lines = bigger hurricane quakes? Wonder what the wind speed at the top face of a 10000ft mountain being hit by 100mph winds at the bottom would bee. Lotta force there.

& Lefty I rarely prefer to disagree with you, but with the 2 quakes & canes coincidences Jeff's been bring up in his blog~ well I got to.
ole~ very interesting, I hadn't even started diggin on the fact with stan, there was both quake & eruption. Seems it would take a large amout of water to cool & cap an active one into blowing, but it rained alot. Eruptions are linked to quakes. Anyone know which one cause the other? Was this a 1st that cane, quake & eruption were simultanious? Could the cane, cause the quake that caused the eruption? or was quake last?
One more before I go. Was in Memphis this past Feb. and felt the quake (3.4 if my mind remembers correctly) there on the 2nd floor of the hospital. Was there any bad weather out there then?
STD 22 still 35 mph. and 1009 mb
Just for your interest, looking up Stan's landfall area in Google Earth, with a "Stan's fly-in-view" at approx. 2 km altitude is well worth it, it shows the relation to San Martin quite clearly.
they were coincedences. thats all. the study showed micro-tremors and eart vibrations. mainly due to the ocean crashing on the sea floor. to get a quake above a 3 u have slippage of a plate and in those places the quakes happen they have quakes every year.
am9, not supprosed. they will lower his intensity of he does not build back convection by 11pm. lets see what they say on the disscussion
code 1, I grew up in that area, 60 miles north of Memphis in a little town Blytheville, AR. Memphis was the big city we went to when we got out of college. Moved down here from Memphis 26 yrs ago; still have family around there. Memphis is on the New Madrid Fault. That area gets little quakes all the time. No big ones in a long time. Most of the area around there is rural (except for Memphis) so no damage occurs. I don't think we had any SE USA tropical weather last Feb. Perhaps bad weather elsewhere. But that area gets them probably more often than California; it's just not on the news.
Skyepony:
I'll try and check up the time relations between hurricane hit and eruption, this is quite an interesting issue.
Thanks all. Catch you later, party time!
feel confident in 24-36 hours we will see a second cyclone form south of std22 and std 22 will dissipate. the disscussion says all models lose std 22 after 36 hrs, yerah it dissipates and its energy is absorbed intop the second cyclone. small burst of convection is why they are maintaining the intensity at 30 kts but doubt there are actual winds that strong based on the orginisation of the system and the fact the storm has an exposed llc. i give it 24 hrs if that and expect it to continue to fall apart and would not be supprised if it dissipates sometime tomm or monday. next model runs of gfs and gfdl out soon should help as well as the model runs for 8pm out around 12:30 am.
the latest nam run from 2pmshows the dissipation of std 22 and the formation of a much stronger cyclone where all the globalmodels predict one to form. 18utc gfs should be out soon.
Thanks ole~ i'll check back later.

Lefty~ in areas that frequently have quakes~ Pressures build between 2 plates ussually one gets forced under another causing the top one to bulge, until something gives, because earth wants to be round & fault lines are weak: plates shift to equilize the pressure.

Now pressures all getting built up on a fault line, hurricane comes, vibrates fault line =releasing quake
95. dcw
Look at the model image in the blog post...what's that stuff in the northeast bahamas...not again!
back at desk, just check sat and looks like STD22 and the ULL have joined hands and are now playing "ring around the rosy".... then caught up and saw lefty's post.

I guess we need to keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Those of you already off, have a great weekend.
Skyepony - That is amazing that hurricanes can cause detectable seismic activity. Do you have a link, I would love to read the article on that. Offhand I don't know what a typical earthquake's frequency spectrum looks like, but
0.9 to 3 millihertz doesn't sound that low to me (although
I can imagine it would be higher in a strong sharp jolting
quake).


The only detectable quake I can experienced was in NE
Ohio, a 5.5 with the epicenter about 30 miles from me
First I heard a definite very low rumbling in the
distance, then the living room flow started swaying like I
was on a ship. At first I thought it was a large truck
driving by, and by the time I yelled to my wife "Earthquake,
Run outside!" I was standing in the doorframe and it was over.

Near the center they showed a grocery store with broken
windows and stuff knocked off shelves, but where I lived
there was no damage whatsoever, I didn't even see any new
cracks in the road or anything.


Anyways, I think the domininat period of that quake was
closer to around 0.5 sec, based on the "swaying"
motion as if the ground underneath liquified for a short
period, so I would be interested in the link you found.
leaving work in 30 mins...this has been a "long week" Wed-Sat, 12+ hrs a day, but on the good side, next week is "short" don't have to be back here until Thur!

Going home to babysit my beautiful little 3 month old Granddaughter, Daughter & Son-in-law got a wedding to go tonight so little Rylee gets to spend the night with Gamma and Poppy. Grandkids! Worth raising their parents for :-)

Maybe will lurk once more before leaving work. Will probably sign on sometime tomorrow between games to see what you are all up to.

good luck to everyone with their Teams this weekend.
out of here.
Hey guys, I think that Stan will be retired now that the death toll has reached over 1500 and rising. What do you guys think?
Skyepony - Come to think of it,I have no idea what the dominant frequency if that quake was, as I realize what I experienced was one of the resonant frequencies of my home being excited by the quake. Anyways, if there is a link, I would love ot read it.
It is no longer in question that Stan's name will be retired (the first "S" storm ever retired, by the way). The total death toll exceeds Katrina's now. Pretty impressive for a Cat.1, eh?
Huuricane Gordon 1994 - Final estimate of 1122 dead in Haiti+ 8 dead in FL =1300 deaths. Plus it was an extremely unusual storm with a looping track, yet "Not Retired". Maybe because it was more of a rainmaker than a very strong hurricane.

Still, if those deaths had all been in the US, I think it would have been retired for sure. So it will be interesting to see if "Stan" is retired.
Oops,correct type 1122+8=1130. Well short of 1500+, so we will see
Make that "typo". The lack of editing and/or spell checking on this blog drives me crazy. Admins, upgrade to 21st Century, please?
Guygee, you're right. I read my posts after I sent send and cannot belive I let lose communications that have mispelled words and incorrect grammer, etc...type so fast that I count on spell check to catch it all.

Gordon was a looper. I have a print out of Gordon's track from beginning to end I was showing someone last week. It should have been retired.

I'm am really out of here now; going home. Will catch you guys later.

Got to watch the St. Louis Cardinals Sweep tonight and the Dolphins tomorrow.
lefty this is getting boring. When is your cat 3+ gonna strike?
Guys, you do realize that there is a new blog entry, right?
Well maybe skyepony checked out, so some a parting observations.

The elongated longitidunal upper high over the West Atlantic is supposed to retrograde, and I see the most serious upcoming threat being the large ULL centered around 26.3N, 60.1W becoming warm core, resulting in a situation not unlike the one that produced Tammmy, only this ULL is larger. Usually with a tropical ULL it is either pretty dry or you may see upper divergence storms on the east or southeast side (depending on surrounding systems, of course). I think the sign of becoming warm core are a ring of convection forming completely around the low, followed by increasing moisture and convection in the center.

As for STD22, it seems like small potatoes, and I can't see how it will not continue to rotate around the periphery of the ULL, at least until it gets near the West Atlantic surface trough-ULH system. Since ULL is moving pretty much due west, I think GFDL has best handle on it (center reformations aside), but I wouldn't be surprised to see motion South of West.



No Primez, but thanks!
what? I just got back, seen nothin but Jeff's invest model up top. What is those models doin puttin lines all around here?