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Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
508 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-080300-
/O.CON.KJAX.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-101008T0300Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
508 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WILL PROMOTE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING THAT
WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AT THE COAST ESPECIALLY NEAR DOCKS
AND RAMPS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
FERNANDINA BEACH.

LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDE
FERNANDINA BEACH...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND AND ALSO BETWEEN ST
AUGUSTINE BEACH AND FLAGLER BEACH.

HIGH TIDES ON THURSDAY AT SELECTED LOCATIONS...

ST SIMONS ISLAND...819 AM AND 838 PM. FERNANDINA BEACH...853 AM
AND 914 PM. MAYPORT...842 TODAY AND 901 PM. ST AUGUSTINE BEACH...
836 AM AND 856 PM.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.

$$
I'm thinkin the future Paula will have a FL impact!
Good Morning Everyone. Thanks Ike that sounds wonderful. We're heading out to Tampa Bay and parts south to anchor out for the weekend. Should be nice weather! Yeah!
1006. Jax82
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
Quoting Jax82:
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
LOL. Not mine but several siblings. Thnx for posting though.
Quoting Jax82:
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


I'd like to go ahead and predict that September 2011 will be one of the busiest months for tropical activity next year.
1010. IKE
Five day precipitation from today through next Tuesday....

Quoting IKE:
Five day precipitation from today through next Tuesday....


I noticed that this morning. Bone dry for much of the Eastern CONUS.
1013. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I noticed that this morning. Bone dry for much of the Eastern CONUS.


Unless this next cold front the middle of next week brings some rain, it may stay dry for at least the next 10 days.
Quoting IKE:


Unless this next cold front the middle of next week brings some rain, it may stay dry for at least the next 10 days.

Exactly. And I would not be a bit suprised if that played out.
Quoting Jeff9642:
Good Morning all, looks like FL is in the clear again today! Maybe not in the next few weeks as models suggest a FL hit!!


Jeff, which models show an impact on FL? I checked the GFS and ECMWF and unless I missed something both of them do not show an impact on FL.