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Strongest winter storm in at least 140 years whallops Southwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.

Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.

Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.

If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.

Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.

Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.


Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.


Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.

Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

Next post
My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Cops stand by closed road.
Southern California Snow
Southern California Snow
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
Bad Luck
Bad Luck
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Blue Thunder Bolt
Blue Thunder Bolt
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Shrouded in Clouds
Shrouded in Clouds
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow. Weather, medical, and international information, generator warnings, sports, geography. I love this Blog. Tho' I have to read beyond, betwixt and between the "tinkle" contests... (:

Good morning -- beautiful, sunny day here!
Quoting Skyepony:
Jeff9641~ I'm thinking the severe weather will be more on Monday early morning for Orlando & east.


Yeah I'm thinking a pretty intense squall is going to charge across the area.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
A good day to one and all i see we are still beating the horse with that stick

Howdy, KOTG. I promise I am done with that one...couldn't get that hook out of him and throw him back if I tried.
Chronic CO2 Toxicity: Species Difference in Physiological and Histopathological Effects
Abstract: Guinea pigs were found to have a much higher susceptibility to carbon dioxide than rats. During exposure to CO2 concentrations ranging from 1-50% CO2, marked species differences were observed in mortality, growth curves, organ/body weight ratios and serum enzyme responses. The difference in tolerance to CO2 between guinea pigs and rats has been related to their differing buffer capacity. Guinea pigs showed higher levels of hydrogen ion concentrations for every exposure. No evidence of tissue necrosis in heart, liver, and other organs was obtained in guinea pigs or rats exposed for prolonged periods to 15% CO2. The increased levels of serum enzymes (GPT, GOT, LDH) observed in guinea pigs under these conditions were interpreted as signs of increased permeability caused by hypercapnia. An organ specific pattern of fat accumulation was observed in chronic hypercapnia.
link
Quoting AussieStorm:
Local Weather station near me

Homebush, Sydney, Australia 24Hr weather observations graph

Full obs here

Red line is Temperature, Blue line is Dew point

Neat!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy, I think we maybe back at it again tracking severe wx moving across C FL Sunday night and early Monday. What do you think?


It's all about timing looks like the shear and dew points will be high enough for some severe weather, but will the atmosphere be unstable enough? (specifically, the temperature lapse rate) Your guess is as good as mine.
Comfort shared among the ones who cant digest the Climate Change data and reality is attune to well,a feeling of oneness.

Or a Kum-bah-yah moment of well...,schoolyard recess pacts.

LOL

The data and peer reviewed reality is empirical and not subject to emotional digression.




508. IKE
12Z GFS...at 168 hours...cold-air returns to the east for a short period...

NWS NOLA discussion

Short term...
from previous discussion...
radiational sea fog continuing to form along the lower Mississippi
River and immediate MS coast. Will keep dense fog advisory for the
MS coast and lower la parishes as warm air advection continues
through the night. Advisory may need to be expanded north and west
later but for now it appears low level jet is providing enough
mixing to keep visibilities up. Should be clearing up not long after
sunrise.


Expecting another unseasonably warm January day across the Gulf
south. Should take a while for cloud cover to move in today and with
temperatures 15 degrees above normal yesterday...went on the warm side of
guidance with low to middle 70s across much of the area. Did keep
locations along the coast below 70 as southerly winds across the
relatively cool Gulf waters restrict surface warming.


Surface analysis shows cold front slowly moving across central Texas
with shower activity Post frontal. An associated warm front is
draped across East Texas through hou and into the central Gulf of
Mexico. A surface low will drop out of The Rockies and across the
middle to lower miss valley tonight. The warm front will lift north of
the County Warning Area later this evening with the cold front reaching the western
half of the County Warning Area between 00z and 06z. Most of the heavier rain should
remain north of the area. Not very impressed with instability in
terms of storm strength but will likely be enough for few
thunderstorms and maybe some sub-severe. Did undercut mav guidance
for western areas as it looks like the better lift will occur as the
front reaches east of I-55.


Showers will persist in the southeastern half of the area through Sunday as
the cold front slows due to the upper trough digging a little
farther south and flattens. Should be rain free across the County Warning Area by
Sunday night.


Long term...
colder and drier air will filter into the region behind this front
and high pressure will build in. High temperatures through middle week
will be much closer to normal. A light freeze will be possible
Tuesday and Wednesday morning as light winds and clear skies allow
for good radiational cooling. Temperatures will moderate a little late this
week ahead the next system that will impact the area. There/S still
a problem with consensus between models in terms of timing but
expecting rain between Friday and Saturday. A few thunderstorms will
be possible but not looking severe at this time.


Meffer
This Blog should be called the everything blog hosted by Jerry Hathaway.
Quoting Skyepony:
Jeff9641~ I'm thinking the severe weather will be more on Monday early morning for Orlando & east.


I was just looking at the current Forecast CAPE and it does not look too bad...But, the lift index is a little high...i agree looks like Monday during the day after with heating of the day involved also....





The only thing i see is a Saints Ass whippin on Sunday by the Vikings and a The Jets taken a Butt kicking by the COLTS! LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Comfort shared among the ones who cant digest the Climate Change data and reality and is attune to well,a feeling of oneness.

Or a Kum-bah-yah moment of well...,schoolyard recess pacts.

LOL

The data and peer reviewed reality is empirical and not subject to emotional digression.

Being older does have its rewards, doesn't it, Pat? BTW, now that you've had a week to get used to it, how do you like being 50? I'm betting it's just fine! Wait until 56...that's when the drumbeat begins again, jmo!
All the bloggers who deny the data should expound their own Hypothesis for the warming in a blog entry of their own.

Im sure those with the intellect of that caliber can easily account for the whereabouts of the tonnage of CO2 and other Fossil Fuel burning derived toxins that pollute the Earths atmosphere 24/7/365.

Should be good reading.
Im 50..?

O yeah,..been to Busy with a lot things to even ponder that AIM.

And now the Championship Looms tomorrow.

I still feel Like 17,but the RAM is getting full upstairs a tad one could say.

LOL, the RAM analogy, Pat!

Thanks, now I can blame losing information on my 'puter. And I have to de-frag constantly.

ADD: Yes, good luck in the game! This Terp is rootin' for ya'!
Im de-fragging as we blog right now..LOL

Java..
Pat I think your missing the point. Its so much more fun to sit around a nice burning camp fire, just ask the cave man. No flames with solar,wind and hydro.
Quoting Patrap:
If one always has a narrow view looking ahead,figuratively,with ones Political or Personal Bias to one side of any debate.. they will always,

and I mean,"always", find a angle to dispute or de-value the Emprical Evidence presented from those who have no dog in the debate.

Science is empirical and the Data produced from minds much more focused on the science than us here,shouldnt be willy nillied due to the Lack of understanding or skewed thinking,or Political Bias,or personal belief..of the one digesting it.

Shucks,I like this one so much I may post it in the CLIMATE CHANGE entry.

LOL

Again, your best post ever. And applies well to everyone.
FACTS
Offense in NFC ranking
1) Saints
3) Vikings

Defense in NFC ranking
2) Vikings
13) Saints

Winner Vikings! Vikings will be able to stop the Saints on more drives than the Saints can stop the Vikings!


Offense in AFC ranking
4) Colts
11) Jets

Defense in AFC ranking
1) Jets
9) Colts

Winner is truly a toss up! Game comes down can the Colts stop the running game of the Jets while can the Jets put up enough points to beat the Colts. Gut says Manning will win!
Quoting TampaSpin:
FACTS
Offense in NFC ranking
1) Saints
3) Vikings

Defense in NFC ranking
2) Vikings
13) Saints

Winner Vikings! Vikings will be able to stop the Saints on more drives than the Saints can stop the Vikings!


Offense in AFC ranking
4) Colts
11) Jets

Defense in AFC ranking
1) Jets
9) Colts

Winner is truly a toss up! Game comes down can the Colts stop the running game of the Jets while can the Jets put up enough points to beat the Colts. Gut says Manning will win!


Lay the 8 points against the Jets - Colts win by two touchdowns
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Wow. Weather, medical, and international information, generator warnings, sports, geography. I love this Blog. Tho' I have to read beyond, betwixt and between the "tinkle" contests... (:

Good morning -- beautiful, sunny day here!


Just caught this post. That was my laugh for the day :)
Thanx atmo,..and we all have a good side or the real side I believe.

Civility and Humor is a must in all we do here and in our life.

And the few hours we spent traveling on a worthy mission was one good day in my Life's pages.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Pat I think your missing the point. Its so much more fun to sit around a nice burning camp fire, just ask the cave man. No flames with solar,wind and hydro.


Donuts,and Hot chocolate and Im in..
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pat I think your missing the point. Its so much more fun to sit around a nice burning camp fire, just ask the cave man. No flames with solar,wind and hydro.


LOL! SOOO true -- Why, I aughta' flame you, young man! (JUST joking.)

Say, wasn't PAT the one burning his leaves this year?
AND enjoying it immensely???
Quoting charlottefl:


Just caught this post. That was my laugh for the day :)

Thank you, kind sir. Tho' I believe I'm among those the good Dr. Jeff has labeled, meaning he's said he sort of enjoys "middle school" humor from time to time. Ahhh, makes me feel young again. (:
NO TORNADO IN BLYTHE!

Unless someone has a copy of the NWS radar showing it, my evaluation of the damage on the ground says there wasn't a tornado.

So what was it? A microburst. How do I know? Because my HOUSE is 1 mile from where the "tornado" touched down at the corner of Neighbors Blvd (Route 78) and the I-10 freeway. All of the damage appears to be only straight line damage. There were NO ROOFS RIPPED OFF as claimed in the stupid AP report. The winds peeled up some roofing tiles on roofs, and took the rear porch cover off one house. It collapsed a car port on another house. The damage path is very wide, and all of the poles, downed street signs, uprooted trees, are all leaning in the same direction.

It was just a microburst from an imbedded t-storm in a wicked line of storms. Anyone got the radar image?

It was also not "10 miles south of Blythe". It was only a mile an a half straight west of Blythe, directly along I-10. The storms were arranged in a north-to-south line, and there were a few areas of purple imbedded in the red line on the radar image I saw immediately before it struck. Could there have been multiple microburst along that line. I think so.

As soon as I can today I'll upload some photos to Flickr that I took.
Eric Eikenberry
523. Thanks for the post!

BTW, where is your "G-d's Own Country"? I'm not being a wise arse, I went to your blog and don't see a location. Around here that country is often considered "West-by-God Virginia!"

Just my opinion, and let me underscore that it's only my opinion -- your screenname kind of unnerves me, because when the blog is going by fast (well, too fast for ol' me), it kind of looks like "Dr. G-d" -- and I feel like I need to atone or something.
Good luck tomorrow Pat even though I should root for that old fart Farve. He has had his day in the sunshine, time for the saints to come marching in.
Alright everyone I'm off to enjoy the perfect weather outside, be back later, have a good afternoon all.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
523. Thanks for the post!

BTW, where is your "G-d's Own Country"? I'm not being a wise arse, I went to your blog and don't see a location. Around here that country is often considered "West-by-God Virginia!"

Just my opinion, and let me underscore that it's only my opinion -- your screenname kind of unnerves me, because when the blog is going by fast (well, too fast for ol' me), it kind of looks like "Dr. G-d" -- and I feel like I need to atone or something.
The US is considered by some to be god's own country. The day i sign-up because to comment on Dr. Masters blog. So i picked the name in regards to the US and Dr. Masters.
My location is in Germany. If someone tells me how to change the username, go ahead.
526 now that was funny. Will Ferrell is the funniest.IMO. And don't forget the baby Jesus.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
The US is considered by some to be god's own country. The day i sign-up because to comment on Dr. Masters blog. So i picked the name in regards to the US and Dr. Masters.
My location is in Germany. If someone tells me how to change the username, go ahead.

Thank you for answering and the explanation.
It's good to have international bloggers.

I appreciate your being very decent about the screenname thingee. I've only had one, and I know we're not generally supposed to have multiple (though some do, lol)! If you're serious, others here will know what to do, or, just a suggestion -- WU Admin. and ask them about it. Thnx. again.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL! SOOO true -- Why, I aughta' flame you, young man! (JUST joking.)

Say, wasn't PAT the one burning his leaves this year?
AND enjoying it immensely???


Not me,..hard to burn anything outside Uptown here,..fire dept would be Like..

Yo,Dude..?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
A good day to one and all i see we are still beating the horse with that stick
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....
Quoting gordydunnot:
This Blog should be called the everything blog hosted by Jerry Hathaway.
But only during the off season.
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....


Again, I'm predicting that the storm will strengthen to cat. 3 in the GoC and then re-emerge west of Australia.
Quoting Patrap:


Not me,..hard to burn anything outside Uptown here,..fire dept would be Like..

Yo,Dude..?

Sorry, Pat... maybe it was that Canadian, Orca -- he's not here to defend himself, is he? lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....

It's projected path will give it about 24hrs over water, If it took a slight jump to the north at would give it more time over water and more to to intensify.



TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:06am EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island areas from Cape
Melville to Cardwell.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 2 was estimated to be
215 kilometres east northeast of Port Douglas and 210 kilometres east northeast
of Cairns moving west northwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Olga, category 2, is currently located over the northwest Coral
Sea and is continuing to move steadily towards the coast.

GALES are expected to develop about the coast between Cape Melville and Cardwell
this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to develop about the coast between Cooktown and
Cairns by late morning.

Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast during the day.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, abnormally high tides are expected between
Cape Tribulation and Innisfail, but the sea level should not exceed the highest
tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Cape Melville and Cardwell should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be
secured as quickly as possible.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 147.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 24 January.

Is that last picture real?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Is that last picture real?


Kinda reminds one of this image..




..and Maybe the Mayans are right.
Quoting Patrap:
Comfort shared among the ones who cant digest the Climate Change data and reality is attune to well,a feeling of oneness.

Or a Kum-bah-yah moment of well...,schoolyard recess pacts.

LOL

The data and peer reviewed reality is empirical and not subject to emotional digression.





>So True:

The intense cold air that affected us for the 4 week period from mid Dec to mid Jan is currently still over the near continent. Milder air has tried to re assert itself from the southwest this week, but has struggled to make inroads. So the UK is in the middle of a battle, and where the mild air from the southwest meets the cold continental air, there is always a risk of snow. Snow fell across parts of Wales and Southwest Britain yesterday, but the weather front bringing milder air was defeated by the cold air. The next one tonight will succeed, and as it does so the rain it brings could turn to snow for a time across the hills of Northern Britain.

What happens next is very finely balanced. Most operational models bring cold air back from the continent into eastern areas later in the weekend and into early next week. But what happens after that is very much open to question.

Each computer model runs a number of times, varying the initial starting conditions of the atmosphere very slightly to see what happens to the forecast. This is called ensemble forecasting. It gives us an indication of how likely, for example, a cold easterly is likely to last next week. The ensembles are telling us at the moment that only very small differences in the initial atmospheric conditions could result in very big changes to our weather next week. Some solutions bring mild air in from the northwest; others maintain and intensify the cold air from the east. In fact the ensembles are telling us that there is a 50/50 balance between those solutions having milder air winning by mid-week, and those which keep it cold.

We have already discussed the implications of El Nino Pacific warming in earlier blogs.

Our weather can be influenced in later Winter and early Spring by El Niño events in the Pacific. It's thought the warming of the stratosphere it brings has a knock on effect on the troposphere - the part of the atmosphere which is important to us - in causing the normal free flow of Atlantic weather systems from the west to stop, as higher pressure causes a 'block' in the atmosphere.

It was certainly an excellent indicator of the cold spell we had in December. But it is by no means a guarantee.

Throw into the mix Piers Corbyn's latest forecast from Weather Action, signalled weeks ago and re-iterated yesterday that next week will turn milder across the UK, due to the influence of solar magnetic particles on our atmosphere, then it's certainly going to be interesting to see which scenario wins. He also expects February to see a return to cold and at times wintry conditions.

Based on a cold and a mild scenario next week I have tried to estimate how cold January is likely to look at the end of the month, following December which was the coldest since 1996.

1) Cold weather winning next week:

It turns out that January would be the coldest, based on the Central England Temperature data set, since 1987, with a forecast CET of around 0.94C (compared to the January mean of 4.2C).

2) Milder weather winning next week:

The CET figure would be around 2.05C. This would still mean January would be the coldest since 1987.

So whichever outcome occurs, it would be in the top 50 coldest Januarys since CET records began 350 years ago

To bad our friends in OZ could't get some.
Yes Baha you are correct. We have enough drama with the storms and storm wanabee's during the season without any other contrivance.
Testing 123
Quoting:
patrap 4:45 PM GMT on January 23, 2010


All the bloggers who deny the data should expound their own Hypothesis for the warming in a blog entry of their own.

Im sure those with the intellect of that caliber can easily account for the whereabouts of the tonnage of CO2 and other Fossil Fuel burning derived toxins that pollute the Earths atmosphere 24/7/365.

Should be good reading.


Seems like lots of scientists would beg to differ. I suspect it won't jive with AGW "science"

It is not the responsibility of ‘climate
realist’ scientists to prove that dangerous human-caused climate change is not happening. Rather, it is those who propose that it is, and promote the allocation of massive investments to solve the supposed ‘problem’, who have the obligation to convincingly demonstrate that recent climate change is not of mostly natural origin and, if we do nothing, catastrophic change will ensue. To date, this they have utterly failed to do so.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Addressed to His Excellency Ban Ki Moon, Secretary-General, United Nations, New York, NY, United States of America; dated 8 December 2009
The "eye" of the East Coast storm has moved northeast of Bermuda.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL! SOOO true -- Why, I aughta' flame you, young man! (JUST joking.)

Say, wasn't PAT the one burning his leaves this year?
AND enjoying it immensely???


I think it was Ike
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


I think it was Ike

Whoopsie, that's why we need the smart gramma's around. (And yup, I already apologized to Patrap.)

I'd love your input, GrtLksQuest -- I've posted something like this on a couple members blogs -- I'm doing some Shameful (as opposed to Shameless) self-promotion. I have a new blog post and I'm asking for more ideas for de-cluttering, selling, trading, giving up...that might actually make our own lives and others' better. I have a strong suspicion that your comments would be wise and useful! TIA.

ADD: BBL. Nice day here -- things to do and promises to keep.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Yes Baha you are correct. We have enough drama with the storms and storm wanabee's during the season without any other contrivance.
LOL.... I was just thinking it's like July in here, when everybody is waiting for the season to "ramp up", so to speak. I do know Febrary and March are generally busier in the Sern Hemi., so I'm saving my "energies" for then....
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Is that last picture real?

Processed - see the HDR tag
I'm out for a while. Have fun while I am gone....
Well said iceagecoming!
Repeat?
(Groundhog Day?)
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Repeat?


;)
How To Sell A Climate Change Bill to Americans

GOP pollster Frank Luntz used to be famous for advising Bush in 2002 to focus on the %u201Clack of scientific certainty%u201D in the debate about global warming. Fast forward eight years and now he%u2019s jumped the fence, well, sort of. He%u2019s teaming up with Fred Krupp of all people, president of the Environmental Defense Fund, to help the group figure out how to talk to the American people about global warming in a way that makes them care about it.

The EDF wants Congress to pass a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and believes Americans really do want to see one pass. Two new polls prove it, one by the Benenson Strategy Group, which shows that 58 percent of Americans favor a cap on emissions. The other is by Luntz, and also shows Americans support climate regulation, but only when it%u2019s %u201Ccouched in terms of national security and jobs, as well as cleaner air,%u201D reporters for the American Public Media show Marketplace told us on Friday.

Luntz%u2019s report, %u201CThe Language of a Clean Energy Economy%u201D says generally Americans do believe the environment is worsening%u2014that the quality of our air, water and general environment is deteriorated over the last decade. Ditto for the quality of the world%u2019s environment.

Turns out Americans want action on climate change but not for the reasons they have heard over the years%u2014that it%u2019s important because pollutants in the air are bad for us, because a warming planet will cause rising seas, drought, hurricanes, vanishing species, etc. We believe it%u2019s real but we%u2019re only going to do something about it if you use words like %u201Cgreen jobs%u201D or, better yet, %u201CAmerican jobs.%u201D If you get rid of %u201Csustainability%u201D and instead say %u201Ccleaner, safer, healthier.%u201D
Full Article
i dont know if gm is real or not but green movement is good for america looks like the only thing to get alot of americans out of their cruisers is th e price of fuel
EIGHT people were killed and 13 are missing after flash floods smashed through villages in Indonesia's Southeast Sulawesi province, officials say.

The powerful waters were unleashed after the Rante Limbong river overflowed and rushed through five villages in Kolaka Utara district late Thursday, health ministry crisis centre chief Rustam Pakaya told AFP yesterday.

"Our latest data from local officials is that eight bodies have been found and 13 people went missing,'' he told AFP, adding that at least 16 houses were swept away.

Spokesman for the national disaster management centre, Priyadi Kardono, said rescuers were struggling to get to the villages.

"It's hard to reach the affected area... roads are cut off and the communication access is so difficult,'' he told AFP.

He said the floods had displaced 2,000 people who were now sheltering in local administration office buildings.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is densely populated and prone to frequent heavy rain.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/eight-killed-13-missing-in-flash-floods/story-e6frfku0-1225822 740279
Ronne Ice Shelf set to collapse in two weeks?

Current salinity...





Two-week projection...

Gulf Stream funelling directly into Jakobshavn Isbrae...

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Ronne Ice Shelf set to collapse in two weeks?

Isn't this already takeing place?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Gulf Stream funelling directly into Jakobshavn Isbrae...

I googled this and wow

Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq (in Greenlandic) is a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. It is located near to the Greenlandic town of Ilulissat (Danish: Jakobshavn) and ends at the sea in the Ilulissat Icefjord.

Jakobshavn Isbræ drains 6.5% of the Greenland ice sheet[1] and produces around 10% of all Greenland icebergs. Some 35 billion tonnes of icebergs calve off and pass out of the fjord every year. Icebergs breaking from the glacier are often so large (up to a kilometer in height) that they are too tall to float down the fjord and lie stuck on the bottom of its shallower areas, sometimes for years, until they are broken up by the force of the glacier and icebergs further up the fjord. Studied for over 250 years, Jakobshavn Isbræ has helped develop our understanding of climate change and icecap glaciology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakobshavn_Isbr%C3%A6

Do you think the gulf stream will stay there?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I googled this and wow

Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq (in Greenlandic) is a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. It is located near to the Greenlandic town of Ilulissat (Danish: Jakobshavn) and ends at the sea in the Ilulissat Icefjord.

Jakobshavn Isbræ drains 6.5% of the Greenland ice sheet[1] and produces around 10% of all Greenland icebergs. Some 35 billion tonnes of icebergs calve off and pass out of the fjord every year. Icebergs breaking from the glacier are often so large (up to a kilometer in height) that they are too tall to float down the fjord and lie stuck on the bottom of its shallower areas, sometimes for years, until they are broken up by the force of the glacier and icebergs further up the fjord. Studied for over 250 years, Jakobshavn Isbræ has helped develop our understanding of climate change and icecap glaciology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakobshavn_Isbr%C3%A6

Do you think the gulf stream will stay there?


Two-week forecast:



not lookin good!
I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....




GFS-model-run

i c sum changes to sum models.. but we would have to wait til it get closer if the systems form and the cold air will b there.. i think the cold air will b there for parts of the south.. the question is will the moisture..
Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....


Notice that in the current image, the 20C line is essentially FLAT from west to east. This shows that ocean currents are slowing down. I've been tracking global SSTs using saved images from WeatherUnderground, and it looks like this flatness first appeared in late December after the bulge in warmth in the West Atlantic near the Gulf Stream disappeared.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Notice that in the current image, the 20C line is essentially FLAT from west to east. This shows that ocean currents are slowing down. I've been tracking global SSTs using saved images from WeatherUnderground, and it looks like this flatness first appeared in late December after the bulge in warmth in the West Atlantic near the Gulf Stream disappeared.


also the northern gom is colder compare to start of 2009.. but it will warm up quickly.. looks like its going to be a long season that im affraid to say.. so with el nino in place, does that usually take more wind shear out compared to last season?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


also the northern gom is colder compare to start of 2009.. but it will warm up quickly.. looks like its going to be a long season that im affraid to say.. so with el nino in place, does that usually take more wind shear out compared to last season?


Take a look at this: Link
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Take a look at this: Link


Thanks for the info.. I thought it did wasnt for sure.. so how u doing astro?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Thanks for the info.. I thought it did wasnt for sure.. so how u doing astro?


I'm fine. But the amount of snow we've been getting is way below average. We've only had one major snowstorm here this year while we'd usually get a few in December and sometimes November.

Look out for some more East Atlantic storms this year with that weakened gyre. Some strong hurricanes are likely in the Caribbean and on the East Coast. Storms near Bermuda are likely too.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm fine. But the amount of snow we've been getting is way below average. We've only had one major storm here this year.


where do u live? I live in the panhandle of fl of course.. ;)
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


where do u live? I live in the panhandle of fl of course.. ;)


Comment updated. In S. Ontario north of KOG. In some periods of December earlier this season there's been more snow on the ground in Texas than here.
Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....


SST's are still dropping... look at same dates, im guessing you already did and since it didnt make your point you chose that date...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Comment updated. In S. Ontario north of KOG. In some periods of December earlier this season there's been more snow on the ground in Texas than here.


ya it has been wacky and crazy.. was this similar to 2004/2005 season?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


SST's are still dropping... look at same dates, im guessing you already did and since it didnt make your point you chose that date...


Again, notice the flatness of the near-20C SSTs. That pattern didn't develop until late December.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


ya it has been wacky and crazy.. was this similar to 2004/2005 season?


In 2004-2005, we had more wild temperature swings and more precipitation than this winter.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


In 2004-2005, we had more wild temperature swings and more precipitation than this winter.


O gotcha.. i wonder what this will mean for the rest of ur weather for the winter in leading into the summer and maybe how active the atlantic hurricane season would be..
SST are above normal in the Tropical North Atlantic, some of which may be related to the negative NAO





From the Monthly Ocean Briefing (PPT)
Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....


Not only you ...



10.12.2009
Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.

Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.

A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption. We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available.

Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.
Background information

* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2010 is expected to be 14.58 °C, the warmest on record.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which reached 14.52 °C, was a year dominated by an extreme El Niño
* Over the ten years, 2000–2009, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2009, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.44 °C, can be compared with the identical forecast value of 14.44 °C.

The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects, volcanic cooling effects if known, and natural variations of the oceans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
The Psychology of Climate Ch
A Guide for Scientists,
Journalists, Educators,
Political Aides, and
the Interested Public

Welcome to the online home of the CRED Guide: The Psychology of Climate Change Communication, published by the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions at Columbia University. The guide is available in its entirety on this site, by clicking through the contents menu at left. You can also download a PDF of the guide or request a paper copy, below.
http://www.cred.columbia.edu/guide/
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Not only you ...



10.12.2009
Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.

Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.

A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption. We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available.

Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.
Background information

* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2010 is expected to be 14.58 °C, the warmest on record.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which reached 14.52 °C, was a year dominated by an extreme El Niño
* Over the ten years, 2000–2009, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2009, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.44 °C, can be compared with the identical forecast value of 14.44 °C.

The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects, volcanic cooling effects if known, and natural variations of the oceans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html


Starting this new decade, global warming will likely accelerate due to oscillations and increased solar activity, then greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks will take over.
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today so I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Starting this new decade, global warming will likely accelerate due to oscillations and increased solar activity, then greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks will take over.

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra
Good evening guys
Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!

That's great stuff!
Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!


Many thanks and prayers to you, and all those that make charity happen.
Hi, everybody, just thought I'd try a tiny fundraiser for the weekend. It's kind of an experiment I just made up:

I just noticed I have a little coming to me for rewards on my Discover Card.

First person to WU-mail me that you will donate $20 to Portlight, and then later just cut & paste a copy of your receipt, or ask Portlight to WU-me, whatever works; then --

I'll forward to you a $40 e-certificate for Mrs. Fields Cookies (online or catalog orders only); OR for FTD, flowers & plants.)

The Mrs. Fields e-cert is good for 6 mos. I can cut & paste other details from the Discover wbsite.

It should be no muss; no fuss.

We have to have dinner now, and it is Sat. nite even for us OLD people, so pls. don't fret if I don't answer until later or even morning. THNX!
Thanks guys; we're moving ahead in Haiti, but certainly not as fast as any of us would like (I'd like to have been moving things into place 10 minutes after the quake stopped). Things are speeding up though and we're making good connections on the ground and here in the States.

Part of the problem is identifying the people that need to to be served; there are still people who won't leave their homes; it's easier to get aid to people who are concentrated in one area than trying to find them one at a time. We're getting there and the people of this community have been amazing; everyone that reads the Doc's blog should take a bow because all of the regulars and even people we haven't seen in a while are showing up and offering to help...

Dr. Masters, you have done an incredible thing, putting this site together; Portlight is grateful to you and those that we have helped are grateful as well!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra

That is not correct because the annual forecast accuracy is around 0.75 or 0.85 if i remember correctly. And you mix short with long term prediction.
Well did anyone saw this negative NAO coming?
Can anyone predict how long this will last?
I guess this is a pattern of major climate shift.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 23, 6:54 pm EST

Mostly Cloudy

47 °F
(8 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: SE 8 MPH
Barometer: 29.68" (1005.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 43 °F (6 °C)
Wind Chill: 43 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.



The Greenland block is expected to set up again as we head into the month of February(keeping those SST's up in the tropical North Atlantic). With a Polar Vortex setting up for the Northeast.

I hope y'all enjoyed this two-three week January thaw cause the Siberian Express shall resume for the East!!! Indeed, the models are trying to bring wintry precip to the Florida Peninsula by mid-month lol(let's see how that goes)...
Quoting weatherbro:
The Greenland block is expected to set up again as we head into the month of February(keeping those SST's up in the tropical North Atlantic). With a Polar Vortex setting up for the Northeast.

I hope y'all enjoyed this two-three week January thaw cause the Siberian Express shall resume!!! Indeed, the models are trying to bring wintry precip to the Florida Peninsula by mid-month lol(let's see how that goes)...


Not going to happen.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Not going to happen.


That would be funny if it did happen. Two wintry precip events in one season would definitely go down in the history books!

But regardless, the cold anomalies are returning!!!!!

A quick update: Our shipment of donated medical supplies from Michigan is being loaded on UN planes as we speak; the UN has a critical needs manifest and they are taking from our shipment based on that list; the rest of the shipment, what little is left, will be shipped out on Monday.

By the way, for those that don't read the backblog, I've updated my blog with an entry written by KitchenGypsy, our amazing volunteer in Michigan. It has photos of the shipment and one of KG herself...she is truly dedicated and we are lucky to have her working for Portlight!
A grain Tanker named "Joyous Age" appears out the Fog this evening at Audubon Bend on the Mississippi River above NOLA by 4 miles..

Quoting futuremet:
The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.





Futuremet, how are you doing? Some of us were wondering about you after the devastating earthquake that hit Haiti. In the SST maps, it appears that currently the 20C line is flat, likely because of a slowing of global ocean currents.
Here are the global SST anomalies again:

Astro it would be nice to have a comparsion image or a few.(ie. 2005 or 2009 at least).
Wow, look what's in the northern PAC now, if thats not a perfect comma I dunno what is.
Looks like tropical storms can strengthen on land now... still supposed to be a TS after 3 days over land.

and here comes the rain:

Quoting futuremet:
The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.





Noticeably cooler in the EPAC too.
593 drqodOwnCountry 12:24 AM GMT on January 24, 2010

Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra

That is not correct because the annual forecast accuracy is around 0.75 or 0.85 if i remember correctly. And you mix short with long term prediction.
Well did anyone saw this negative NAO coming?
Can anyone predict how long this will last?
I guess this is a pattern of major climate shift.


It appears Atmo has a valid point as it has been noticed by many others as well as former
employees of the MET office:
The Major shift is in the program:
Software eng. 101: Garbage in, garbage out:
Or dare I say Propaganda in, you know the rest.
A frozen Britain turns up the heat up on the MET office:

Paul Hudson 13:34 UK time, Saturday, 9 January 2010


Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the BBC in October 2007.


So why, at the same time that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com forecast a cold winter did the Met Office issue a forecast saying that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%?

Clearly there is the rest of January and February to go, but such has been the intensity of the cold spell, which next week will run into its 4th week, then it would take something remarkable during the rest of winter for the Met Office's forecast to be right. It's also worth remembering that this comes off the back of the now infamous barbeque summer forecast, and lets not forget last winter, which the Met Office said again would be mild, but turned out to be the coldest for over 10 years.

The answer may well be quite straight forward. It's likely that the all powerful and dominant Hadley centre supercomputer predicted very little chance of a cold winter, just like it did last winter, and that, as they say, was that.

Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre's predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/





TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:01pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coast, island and adjacent inland areas from
Cooktown to Cairns.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
15 kilometres east of Cape Tribulation and 95 kilometres north of Cairns
moving west at 16 kilometres per hour.

GALES are expected about the coast between Cooktown and Cairns and adjacent
inland areas during the afternoon.

Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Cooktown and Cairns, but the sea
level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely
along the beachfront.

People between Cooktown and Cairns should remain inside until the cyclone has
passed and listen to the next advice at 5pm.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 145.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Sunday 24 January.

TC Olga is about to make land-fall, as seen on RADAR
North braces for Cyclone Olga, floods and gales



Peter Michael and AAP

January 24, 2010 02:24pm

UPDATE: Most of the north Queensland coastline is expected to be battered by two violent weather systems as both category 2 Cyclone Olga and ex-tropical cyclone Neville approach from the sea.

Olga was expected to hit around the Port Douglas region at 2.30pm, bringing with it winds of up to 140 km/h.

Premier Anna Bligh said rainfalls up to 300mm in some regions were predicted and localised flooding could be expected.

``We're also expecting very strong winds, particularly damaging to older buildings and we do have teams on stand by,'' she said.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Jim Davidson said ex-tropical cyclone Neville, which remained a low pressure system, had re-intensified.

''(Ex-tropical cyclone Neville) is almost the equivalent of a low category one cyclone now,'' he said.

``It is expected to hit the coast somewhere between Townsville and Mackay later on Sunday.''
He said he had never seen the unusual dual weather pattern before, which will bring severe weather from as far south as Sarina, to as far north as the Coen.

``What we have at the moment are two systems in the Coral Sea dumbbelling each other,'' he said.

``The stronger system is definitely Olga. But the weaker system, ex-tropical cyclone Neville just won't go away.''

Emergency Management Queensland have activated local disaster management groups in all the areas likely to be impacted.

Ms Bligh said volunteers would be in place to deal with any damage and disaster funding would be available for residents in need following the cyclone.

``It's yet to be seen how serious and how fierce this cyclonic activity is, but it is a very serious weather pattern and it is scheduled to cross the coast around a very heavily populated area,'' she said.

Meteorologist Ann Farrell from the Bureau of Meteorology's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre said Olga was expected to move westerly while losing intensity until it moved into Cape York.
The system was then expected to emerge in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

``There is the possibility then for it to then reform and get back into tropical cyclone intensity over the waters in the gulf,'' Ms Farrell said.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service assistant commissioner for the far north region Wayne Weston warned residents to stay away from floodwaters.

``Each year, lives are tragically lost from people venturing in and around floodwaters,'' Mr Weston said in a statement.

``Please obey all traffic signs and road closures and do not attempt to cross flooded roads, even if this means having to stay at home.''

North braces for floods, gales

Far north Queensland residents spent the morning battening down, clearing yards, and stocking up on supplies.

Emergency warning signals broadcast live on radio can be heard echoing in homes across the region.

Supermarkets are busy with locals buying up last-minute goods including canned foods, batteries and lanterns.

This morning the Category two tropical cyclone Olga intensified and picked up speed as it heads towards the coast at 12km/h amid warnings of destructive winds, heavy rain and localised flooding.

Cooktown, Port Douglas, and the tourist village at Cape Tribulation are expected to be closest to the eye of the storm as it crosses the coast between 4pm and 5pm, in the latest update by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Three disaster management co-ordination centres have been activated, one in Cooktown, two in Cairns, with “everyone well prepared’’, say officials.

Emergency Management Queensland regional director Wayne Coutts said gale force winds were expected to start buffeting the coast near Cairns by lunchtime.

“It is still fairly calm at the moment,’’ Mr Coutts said.

“It will pick up later.’’

Cooktown is already cut off from the south with the McLeod River crossing flooded on the Mulligan highway south of Lakeland Downs.

The Rex Range road near Mossman has also been cut with trees down across the road.

Within hours of the Cyclone Olga alert being raised early yesterday, a team of State Emergency Service volunteers was called in to replenish sandbag stocks depleted by minor flooding on Friday night in the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Neville.

Green Island Resort, east of Cairns, is being evacuated this morning and all Great Barrier Reef tours have been cancelled with predictions of 90km/h winds out to sea.

Cairns Airport moved to stage two of its alert system after the weather bureau upgraded its forecast to a cyclone warning at 5pm but no flights had been cancelled as of late yesterday.

Cyclone Olga surprised far north Queensland residents by forming in the Coral Sea late on Friday night in the shadow of the weakening and downgraded former tropical cyclone Neville.
All calm as Cyclone Olga hits Port Douglas

Evan Schwarten

Sunday, January 24, 2010

The Cairns Post



JANUARY 24, 3.10pm: The disaster management centres were activated, safety warnings had been broadcast all day but as Cyclone Olga beared down on Port Douglas, locals and tourists couldn't have been less concerned.

As the cyclone, downgraded to a category 1, crossed the coast at about 2pm on Sunday, it was business as usual on the town's main street.

Pictures: Cyclone Olga

The town's Central Hotel was packed with tennis fans there to watch the Australian Open on the big screen while knocking back a few beers.

Down the road at the Courthouse Hotel, the house jazz band was in the mood for irony, playing hits including I can See Clearly Now and Always Look on the Bright Side of Life against a backdrop of storm clouds and intermittent rain.

Visiting performer Anita Service, with her colourful attire and boisterous manner, seemed to gather more interest than the storm in the hour leading up to Olga's arrival.

With a troop of fans following, the lively party host declared she was ready to party through the cyclone.

"We're getting ready for the big blow with massive cocktails," she said.

Melburnian Chris Mcfarlane said he was disappointed his planned snorkeling trip had been cancelled but was making the most of the situation by stocking up on a carton of beer to wait out the bad weather.

"We're not sure what to expect but hopefully we will be lucky enough to go out tomorrow," he said.

News report on TC Olga Link
I hope long range gfs is wrong. Supposed to go to a wedding at Captiva Isl. Feb 6. Looks like GFS has a hell of a storm crossing central Fl. at that time.
I guess everyone turned in early for the night to get ready for the big football day tomorrow. It will probably turn out to be more interesting than the supper bowl.
Goodnight Aussie glad it went in the right direction strength wise. I guess you can always use a little water down there hope it falls were needed.
Sounds like Port Douglas is the place to go for a Cyclone Party!

Yeah, maybe sleepy-time is a good idea...gotta' find my doggys and hubby? G'nite all! Happy game-watching tomorrow.
Goodnight Awake, peace
while everyone is sleeping, I'll do a hardware clean and polish of my pc. Sweet dreams everyone.
my radar is startin to pick up.. not looking good sooner or later..
mine too: link
Quoting tornadodude:
mine too: link

sure is.. im just gettin pop up storms near me but im expectin to get more close 8am central time.. but b4 that theres alot of moisture to have sum strong pop up storms to build.. specially when im close to the warm front with unstable environment.. its goin to b interesting..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

sure is.. im just gettin pop up storms near me but im expectin to get more close 8am central time.. but b4 that theres alot of moisture to have sum strong pop up storms to build.. specially when im close to the warm front with unstable environment.. its goin to b interesting..


yeah, should be interesting for ya
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, should be interesting for ya


hey whats ur name tornadodude?? Im Justin btw.. but u can call me JG if thats ez.
Quoting tornadodude:
and here comes the rain:

>

So what, pray tell, is the point of including real time radar loops in this blog discussion? Anybody reading real time can get them real time elsewhere. Anybody reading back entries will only see what's happening when they read, not what the OP wanted to point out. I guess I miss the point, must be getting old or something
Quoting transitzone:

So what, pray tell, is the point of including real time radar loops in this blog discussion? Anybody reading real time can get them real time elsewhere. Anybody reading back entries will only see what's happening when they read, not what the OP wanted to point out. I guess I miss the point, must be getting old or something


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

I'm Matt btw, Justin
G'morning, Aussie!
Quoting tornadodude:


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

I'm Matt btw, Justin


Gotcha..
alright, I'm going to bed, have a goodnight everyone
The Euro and GFS are doing the same thing they did in December in trying to spit up some wintery precip for central and southern Florida by mid FEB(two weeks ago they wanted to do the event on Ground Hogs Day).
Quoting tornadodude:


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

Oh, folks trying to use tools they don't understand, been there most of my career. Pity they don't learn ;-)
Quoting transitzone:

Oh, folks trying to use tools they don't understand, been there most of my career. Pity they don't learn ;-)


so either you could be a smart*** or tell me how to fix it. Hmmm
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 24, 1:54 am EST

A Few Clouds

49 °F
(9 °C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: SE 15 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.46" (997.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 42 °F (6 °C)
Wind Chill: 43 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


p.s. this doesnt self update ;)
this does tho :P Lol




this one might, care to let me know later if it is up to your standards? thanks ;)

Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


be careful, if that self-updates, you know who will get on to you about it LOL
Quoting tornadodude:


be careful, if that self-updates, you know who will get on to you about it LOL


o wow.. im scared lol.. alright pimp.. have a goodnight
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


o wow.. im scared lol.. alright pimp.. have a goodnight


haha you too, later bro
have a goodnight transitzone :)

by the way, this comment wont update to say good morning later ;)
641. BtnTx
Quoting AussieStorm:
while everyone is sleeping, I'll do a hardware clean and polish of my pc. Sweet dreams everyone.

Amazing how you are on the other side of the world and it is good to hear from you on this great blog!
Quoting tornadodude:


so either you could be a smart*** or tell me how to fix it. Hmmm

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze
Quoting transitzone:

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze


And I know how to use my sources. Just because they done uphold to your almighty standards doesnt mean crap. :)
Quoting transitzone:

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze


btw, how was college in the 50's?

and to quote a movie that came out in your time period, "Frankly my dear, I dont give a damn."

goodnight
Quoting tornadodude:


btw, how was college in the 50's?

I wouldn't know
Quoting transitzone:

I wouldn't know


well anyway, goodnight, i have no idea why you have a personal vendetta against me because my maps self update, That's such an atrocious act on my behalf. :P
We're Back :)
What did I miss ... the weather and fishing in Cancun was awesome..
AWESOME, Orca!

Uh, I think you missed an earthquake and devastation in Haiti, NRAAmy & CA bloggers going glub glub glub in CA, a tornado in Huntsville, also a few around Florida...nothing much; oh wait, there's a cyclone in Australia.

I was going to bed a long time ago, but watched cable movies instead. Psycho IV just finished, but I read some posts before yours, and I think the blog had a character 'bout as whack.

Okey dokey...well I want to hear all about your trip, so please blog all about it...but now I really gotta' get some sleep, so g'morning and g'night!

Matt, if you're reading this...you're not asleep yet! Get some zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's. You need to be fresh for the next, uh, character on the blog.
Quoting tornadodude:


well anyway, goodnight, i have no idea why you have a personal vendetta against me because my maps self update, That's such an atrocious act on my behalf. :P

Bandwidth and out of date info. Others do it too, in addition to providing good stuff. Not personal, you just happened by on this one when I had a different ticker running in a different world that intersects ;-) G'nite
Quoting Floridano:
G'morning, Aussie!

Good Evening


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:34pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

The Cyclone WARNING from Cooktown to Cairns has been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 4:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located offshore from Cape
Tribulation.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has weakened and is now part of a vigorous monsoon
trough located across the northwest Coral Sea. It is expected to move west over
southern Cape York Peninsula and be located in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
by Tuesday morning when it is forecast to re-intensify.

A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for this trough system for the
Queensland east coast between Cooktown and Mackay.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 145.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Sunday 24 January.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Wind Gusts.
For people in the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Burdekin and
Central Coast districts between Cooktown and Mackay.
Issued at 4:10 pm on Sunday 24 January 2010

Synoptic Situation:
At 4pm EST, ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located just off the North Tropical
Coast near Port Douglas. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Neville was located off the Herbert
and Burdekin coast.
Both systems have weakened and are now part of a vigorous monsoon trough that is
forecast to move onto the coast between Cooktown and the Whitsundays this
evening.

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop this evening and continue on Monday and
may lead to localised flash flooding.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kph are expected in some parts of the exposed coast
between Port Douglas and the Whitsundays.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga will move steadily westwards across southern Cape York
Peninsula and enter southeast Gulf of Carperentaria waters Tuesday morning.
The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

* beware of fallen trees and powerlines
* avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


The next warning is due to be issued by 8pm Sunday.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 24/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 145.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [244 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A nm [N/A km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 24/1800: 16.9S 143.7E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 997
24: 25/0600: 17.0S 141.8E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 998
36: 25/1800: 16.9S 140.3E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 993
48: 26/0600: 17.1S 139.2E: 080 [150]: 040 [070]: 989
60: 26/1800: 17.2S 137.5E: 100 [185]: 030 [050]: 990
72: 27/0600: 17.2S 135.7E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 990
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has continued to weaken during the day with increased
land interraction. A vigorous monsoon trough links Ex Tropical Cyclones Olga and
Neville and currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
WE MAY HAVE A PROBLEM COMING AT YELLOWSTONE! This is looking more like Volcanic Activity to me some now!



Satellite Technologies Detect Uplift in the Yellowstone Caldera
This image of ground deformation was created using data from several satellite passes from 1996 through 2000. The image shows 125 mm (about 5 in) of uplift centered within the northern end of Yellowstone caldera (black dotted line), about 10 km (6.2 miles) south of Norris. Each full spectrum of color (from red to purple) represents about 28 mm (1 inch) of uplift. The uplift is approximately 35 km x 40 km (22 miles x 25 miles) in size.


Not to alarm anyone.........but look where the earthquakes are occuring also....IN THE EXACT SAME AREA AS THE UPLIFT......
March 2, 2006 | 4 comments

Magma On The Move Beneath Yellowstone
By David Biello
Much of Yellowstone National Park is a giant collapsed volcano, or a caldera. In an enormous eruption roughly 640,000 years ago, this volcano spit out around 240 cubic miles of rock, dirt, magma and other material. Around 70,000 years ago its last eruption filled in that gaping hole with flows of lava. The area has enjoyed an uneasy peace since then, the land alternately rising and falling with the passing decades. New satellite data indicate that this uplift and subsidence is caused by the movement of magma beneath the surface and may explain why the northern edge of the park continues to rise while the southern part of the caldera is falling.

Charles Wicks, Daniel Dzurisin and their colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey studied radar images of the caldera captured by the European Space Agency's ERS-2 satellite during two passes over the park. Using a technique called interferometry--whereby radar measurements from two different vantage points are combined to give a measure of height--the scientists confirmed measurements on the ground that showed the land rising. But the images also revealed that a roughly 12-mile-wide circle of land centered at the northern rim of the caldera is still rising while land to its south is sinking. The source of that uplift, according to data revealed in today's Nature, lies more than seven miles underground.

Therefore, magma movement must be the cause of the rise and fall, Dzurisin explains. "It's just too deep to be caused by pressurization of the hydrothermal system," he says. "A small amount of magma has either moved up or been intruded to a depth of [seven miles] or perhaps it was already there and it's been pressurized."

Although previous studies had hinted at new magma moving beneath Yellowstone, this represents the first compelling evidence, according to Dzurisin. Such magma movement would also explain recent surface phenomena including new cracks and hot springs as well as the more frequent eruption of Steamboat Geyser. "If you do pressurize or increase the volume of a source [seven miles] deep, you put the ground in tension and that would be conducive to new fractures giving access to the surface for hot waters that previously hadn't had that access," he adds.

This new magma does not mean that Yellowstone will erupt again in the near future; much more significant signs such as more earthquakes, more focused ground deformations and the escape of volcanic gases would point to that. But it does point to continued activity at one of the world's largest volcanic systems. "We don't know if the next event will be a continuation of the series of lava flows that filled in the caldera or the beginning of a new cycle that will create a new caldera," Dzurisin says. "Eruptions are far enough apart that there is a very low probability of the next eruption happening in our lifetimes or anytime soon. The flipside is: the system has been active for millions of years and it's going to erupt again sometime."
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
18:00 PM FST January 24 2010
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1003 hPa) located at 10.0S 178.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Deep convection persistent in the last 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. 05F lies under 250 hPa diffluent region along a surface trough in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation from surface to 500 hPa.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it slowly southeast.

Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is LOW.
657. IKE
From Memphis,TN. morning discussion....

"THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-40...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL DATA...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH
LATEST MODELS FORECASTING THE AREA BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF MID/UPPER JET...THINK THERE WOULD BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN COMPARED TO SNOW AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR MAY BE
SHALLOW.
FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-40 IN HWO. HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT."

658. IKE
Fort Worth,TX. long-term discussion.....

"THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED LOW TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND MORE
COMPACT WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS. THE DETAILS BEAR WATCHING AS
THE BOTH MODELS ALSO POINT TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH SHUTS
OFF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A
STRONGER...MORE WRAPPED UP SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WRAPPING UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD
KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO PLACE. EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF KEEPS THIS AREA JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF
NORTH TX LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO RECOVER
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...SO WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRUE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN.


CAVANAUGH"
659. IKE
Next Sunday morning looks like the coldest morning of nest week. 6Z GFS at 174 hours....

Morning Ike, et al.
661. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike, et al.


Morning.

This may have been posted earlier, Accuweather forecasting a possible cold outbreak in the eastern USA in February...Link
so more of the cold coming next wk 70f windy e cent florida looking for a monster ne'er in feb
Good morning WU-Bloggers.

We can handle a little cold weather, eh Ike? Just nothing like we had a few weeks ago. PLEASE.

664. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning WU-Bloggers.

We can handle a little cold weather, eh Ike? Just nothing like we had a few weeks ago. PLEASE.



I don't see anything that cold...yet.
Mornin' everyone.

Ike.. I hope it stays that way..not "that" cold :)
666. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' everyone.

Ike.. I hope it stays that way..not "that" cold :)


Boy it is windy outside. Any time there is an east wind it is magnified where I live. I would say it's gusting to about 30 mph. Steady winds of 10-20 mph.

64.2 degrees outside.
667. IKE
Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

TORNADO WATCH 9 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC033-091-113-241900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.100124T1230Z-100124T1900Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA

668. IKE



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 630 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE /MID 60S
DEWPOINTS/ AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500
J/KG WITH CONVECTION ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS SE MS/SW AL...IT
APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...THOMPSON
Good Morning...
670. IKE
Hail storms in Alabama....

671. P451
Link

Saturday, 23 January 2010 13:33

The swarm of small earthquakes rocking the western part of Yellowstone National Park appears to be abating, with a series of small quakes reported yesterday and nothing since midnight.
As of this writing -- 6:42 a.m. Mountain -- no earthquakes have been reported all night, with the last recorded quake coming at 10:41 p.m., a 3.0-magnitude rumble. It was the latest in more than 1,100 registered earthquakes in a very small area on the western side of the Park, about 10 miles from Old Faithful and nine miles from West Yellowstone. Given the geology of Yellowstone, every little rumble gets lots of attention: it's the most monitored area of the planet, and lots of energy is spent determining small and large changes in the Yellowstone caldera. A series of earthquakes, naturally, receives lots of attention.

Ten of the earthquakes have been magnitude 3.0 or greater, with a 3.8 magnitude earthquake recorded late Wednesday evening. The larger quakes have been felt by people in Old Faithful, West Yellowstone, Canyon, Mammoth Hot Springs, Grant Village, Madison, and Gardiner. No damage or injuries have been reported.

If this morning is any indication -- no quakes recorded at all -- the swarm may be played out. The consensus in the scientific community: the swarm of earthquakes was caused by tectonic shifts, not anything to do with the Yellowstone caldera. These same shifts are causing more severe earthquakes in areas like Haiti and Oklahoma. Other monitoring stations indicate no change at all in activity with the caldera and the Yellowstone supervolcano.
Almost 80 swarms have been recorded in Yellowstone since 1995.

672. code1
Better attach a chin strap to any hat you wear outside today Ike. Looks like we are going to rock-n-roll again today.
673. IKE
Quoting code1:
Better attach a chin strap to any hat you wear outside today Ike. Looks like we are going to rock-n-roll again today.


It appears that way.....

Birmingham, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 28 sec ago
Light Thunderstorms and Rain
59 F
Light Thunderstorm Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 57 F
Wind: 29 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 44 mph
Pressure: 29.53 in (Steady)

Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 643 ft
Quoting iceagecoming:

Climate change means also more varibilities, specialy in short terms - more precipitation and shifting climate zones. Weather becomes more extreme.
And the UK has a special situation with the gulf stream, So i guess pretty hard to predict.


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:54pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 50
kilometres east northeast of Cairns and near stationary.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has remained near stationary immediately off the Cairns
coast during the last several hours. It is expected to resume a westward track
during the next 6 to 12 hours and be located in the southeast Gulf of
Carpentaria by Tuesday morning. It may re-intensify into a Tropical Cyclone in
the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding is likely to develop between Cooktown and Mackay as
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga and an associated monsoon trough moves ashore early
Monday. Flood warnings and a separate Severe Weather Warning are current for
these developing conditions.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 146.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday 25 January [4:30 am CST
Monday 25 January].
My weather for aprox last 7 weeks (Around -1 to -13 C)
Current Conditions Berlin-Tegel, Germany (Airport)
Haze
-10 °C
Haze
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -16 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 6300 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 37 m
Raw METAR Aviation Weather Radio
Flight Rule: MVFR ()
Wind Speed: 9.7 kts.
Wind Dir: 100° (East)
Ceiling: 6300 m
Anybody catch that TVS that just popped up on Birmingham radar?

Quoting StormW:


Ya...caught it on SRV mode.


Might not necessarily be a nado, but looks like these storms are producing rotation at some level in the atmosphere.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Climate change means also more varibilities, specialy in short terms - more precipitation and shifting climate zones. Weather becomes more extreme.
And the UK has a special situation with the gulf stream, So i guess pretty hard to predict.


Agreed, a prediction is just that, hence when
comments come up as "there is no debate",therein lies the problem. Is it climate
warmer or climate colder? It was not just the UK
It was most of the northern hemisphere, excluding Greenland which was singled out, but
the rest of the record cold readings were ignored, supporting the warming bias as mentioned in the article.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,"[1] (sometimes called Santayana's Law of Repetitive Consequences).


Tampaspin, shouldn't there be deeper activity?
I read somewhere that this banana style magma chamber is many hundred miles deep.
Rightnow it's all in around 16km and this pretty much i guess means tectonics.

So far im more worried of the overall trend in earthquake activities around the world. And this yellowstone swarm seems pretty gone?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
My weather for aprox last 7 weeks (Around -1 to -13 C)
Current Conditions Berlin-Tegel, Germany (Airport)
Haze
-10 °C
Haze
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -16 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 6300 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 37 m
Raw METAR Aviation Weather Radio
Flight Rule: MVFR ()
Wind Speed: 9.7 kts.
Wind Dir: 100° (East)
Ceiling: 6300 m


Sie wohnen in Deutschland?
Quoting Grothar:


Sie wohnen in Deutschland?

Atm, Yes.
Quoting iceagecoming:
593 drqodOwnCountry 12:24 AM GMT on January 24, 2010It appears Atmo has a valid point as it has been noticed by many others as well as former
employees of the MET office:
The Major shift is in the program:
Software eng. 101: Garbage in, garbage out:
Or dare I say Propaganda in, you know the rest.
A frozen Britain turns up the heat up on the MET office:

Paul Hudson 13:34 UK time, Saturday, 9 January 2010


Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the BBC in October 2007.


So why, at the same time that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com forecast a cold winter did the Met Office issue a forecast saying that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%?

Clearly there is the rest of January and February to go, but such has been the intensity of the cold spell, which next week will run into its 4th week, then it would take something remarkable during the rest of winter for the Met Office's forecast to be right. It's also worth remembering that this comes off the back of the now infamous barbeque summer forecast, and lets not forget last winter, which the Met Office said again would be mild, but turned out to be the coldest for over 10 years.

The answer may well be quite straight forward. It's likely that the all powerful and dominant Hadley centre supercomputer predicted very little chance of a cold winter, just like it did last winter, and that, as they say, was that.

Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre's predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/




Thanks, ice. I hadn't seen this one.

Of course OddoNe had to defend it, because I knocked it.

And someone tell him that the short-term and long-term forecasts were both discussed in the guardian article I linked (you know, that whole "If you had bothered to look at the link" thing.)

On to long term models...what I know about forecast models, and the physics under the hood, yes, it is possible to tune a model to observations by attributing temperature trends too heavily to the wrong forcing and then have it result in a warm bias when the forcings change. The physics of which forcing causes what relative portion of a seasonal forecast temp is tenuous, at best, a SWAG, at worst. Tuning the model to match observations will work fine even if the wrong forcing has been given too much weight, until the forcings change.

Same is true for MOS if your model has a cool bias, say, for a positive NAO. They would be collecting statistics during the positive NAO and correcting the model output based on the obs. And then a negative NAO comes along and the MOS are tuned to warm the result a bit, but in actuality, the results may have been too warm to begin with for a negative NAO. (over-simplification for the sake of keeping this down to a short novel)

And this applies to more than just the NAO. It applies to all of the big forcings that change over longer periods, and their collective effect in concert.

Not saying with any certainty that this is what is going on at the Met office, but that it is possible.


Region:SOLOMON ISLANDS
Geographic coordinates:9.220S, 157.757E
Magnitude: 5.6 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 24 Jan 2010 14:19:00
Time near the Epicenter:25 Jan 2010 01:19:00
Location with respect to nearby cities:
160 km (99 miles) SE (141 degrees) of Gizo, Solomon Islands
191 km (119 miles) SW (227 degrees) of Dadali, Solomon Islands
242 km (150 miles) W (276 degrees) of HONIARA, Solomon Islands
1159 km (720 miles) E (90 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
Quoting StormW:


Ya...caught it on SRV mode.

Morning, sunshine.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Tampaspin, shouldn't there be deeper activity?
I read somewhere that this banana style magma chamber is many hundred miles deep.
Rightnow it's all in around 16km and this pretty much i guess means tectonics.

So far im more worried of the overall trend in earthquake activities around the world. And this yellowstone swarm seems pretty gone?



Gone.....I'm no Geologist.....but, does not seem to be gone...Not say YellowStone is erupting all i am doing is showing what i find....

Quoting atmoaggie:

The article mentiones the winter and summer forecast. I can not say much for the summer forecast but the winter i think would played out correct if the gulf stream would not have changed. And those changed the climate for the hall northern hemisphere.
And as i stated the longtime forecast is in plus in regards to the MET Office forecast.
Nevertheless the BBC can give there weather forecast to anyone they want.
I think this is just a need to find someone to blame for the bad preperations in the UK for such a weather occurance. They reported food and salt shortages.
Hey TS what do the different colors mean on your graft? TIA
Quoting severstorm:
Hey TS what do the different colors mean on your graft? TIA

I think they are just cycled so one can see each separately and still cram a whole 24 hours of activity on one plot. Imagine there was a lot of activity and all of the lines were one color...impossible.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think they are just cycled so one can see each separately and still cram a whole 24 hours of activity on one plot. Imagine there was a lot of activity and all of the lines were one color...impossible.


That is correct......each full line represents 15 minutes...so you have 4 different colors for the full hour to look at and the cycle continues.....
TS and Atmo, Thank you for the information.
It appears the PanHandle and Central Florida near the Orlando area have the highest current Forecasted CAPE values......need to watch the PanHandle of Florida for sure....jury is out of the Orlando Central Florida area...
This CAPE forecast is for Monday




I don't like the collision of Winds that will happen in the Panhandle.......


Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't like the collision of Winds that will happen in the Panhandle.......



I see your area of convergence and raise you a bigger rain/snow storm from Nashville to Toronto.
(a lot more convergence there)

Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
944 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALC001-021-037-241600-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100124T1600Z/
AUTAUGA AL-CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-
944 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COOSA...EASTERN CHILTON AND NORTH CENTRAL AUTAUGA
COUNTIES...

AT 942 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO DETECT A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ENTERPRISE...OR NEAR
CLANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MITCHELL DAM BY 950 AM
CST...
HIGGINS FERRY PARK...DOLLAR AND LAY LAKE DAM BY 955 AM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LYLE BY 1000 AM CST...

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 200 THROUGH 212

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3268 8679 3300 8655 3295 8638 3281 8626
3277 8632 3278 8634 3277 8633 3276 8635
3275 8641 3272 8642 3255 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 225DEG 48KT 3279 8662

$$





I haven't been able to get the global daily temp to work the last few days, the JAVA doesn't kick in or something. Can anyone get this to draw a graph?
Quoting tornadodude:
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ENTERPRISE...OR NEAR
CLANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MITCHELL DAM BY 950 AM
CST...
HIGGINS FERRY PARK...DOLLAR AND LAY LAKE DAM BY 955 AM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LYLE BY 1000 AM CST...

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 200 THROUGH 212


That's an interesting town name...is a town, just looked it up.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 24, 10:54 am EST

Light Rain

50 °F
(10 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: SW 14 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.38" (994.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 46 °F (8 °C)
Wind Chill: 45 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


p.s. this doesnt self update ;)
Quoting atmoaggie:


That's an interesting town name...is a town, just looked it up.


yeah it is, hmm
Why we spoke about the MET Office?
Because i posted the annual forecast of the MET Office, predicting a record warm 2010.

So here is the take from NOAA (seasonal outlook)
STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS WARM
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST (THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKEN) INTO AT LEAST EARLY
BOREAL SPRING 2010, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE US
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INTO THE APR-MAY-JUN (AMJ) 2010
SEASON. THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS USUALLY
GREATEST DURING THE LATE WINTER SEASON. MANY PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT THE
EL NINO IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THOUGH SOME MODELS PREDICT THAT THIS WARM EPISODE MAY
EXTEND INTO SUMMER, IMPACTS ON THE US TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SPRING AND BEYOND, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2010 INDICATES AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURE
IS SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR,
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED.

THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING FMA 2010 ARE HIGHER THAN USUAL
IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IS SIMILAR TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010


Surprise! They predict above average temperatures and annomalies. They do not make the claim of a record warm year, but their study is in support.
Quoting Skyepony:
I haven't been able to get the global daily temp to work the last few days, the JAVA doesn't kick in or something. Can anyone get this to draw a graph?

Worked for me:


http://i46.tinypic.com/5zjjls.png


Does a java loop of the NWS radar work for you?
Quoting tornadodude:
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 24, 10:54 am EST

Light Rain

50 °F
(10 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: SW 14 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.38" (994.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 46 °F (8 °C)
Wind Chill: 45 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


p.s. this doesnt self update ;)


OMG, you finally broke 50F!
Quoting Bordonaro:


OMG, you finally broke 50F!


Lol yeah, but check out my forecast:


This Afternoon: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind between 11 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 28.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.
I'll be back on later guys, got some cleaning to do :P
Quoting tornadodude:
I'll be back on later guys, got some cleaning to do :P

Is this one going to update? (I suppose your posts will get cleaner?)
708. IKE



1530 UNK 5 N JACKSON CLARKE AL 3158 8789 2 TREES BLOWN DOWN BRIEFLY BLOCKING U.S. HIGHWAY 43 ONE MILE NORTH OF COUNTY ROAD 3. (MOB)



1556 70 4 SE CLANTON CHILTON AL 3280 8658 A SPOTTER WITH A HANDHELD ANEMOMETER MEASURED WINDS TO 70 MPH NEAR THE PEACH TOWER EXIT AT US-31 AND I-65 IN CLANTON. (BMX)
atmo~ Thanks.. NWS radar worked, but not NOAA Java sat loops. I updated to the latest version & everything Java works now. Started having problems when I got the latest Firefox version.

Appears today I'm going to break 80 degrees!!
78.9 °F
Portlight Haiti relief update
Link
Anyone seen Floodman or Press today?
713. Xyrus
Tampaspin,

First, this is a meteorological blog, not a geological one.

Second, your posts are ridiculously alarmists. The seismograph you posted is typical of the Yellowstone region (along with many other seismically active areas such as Mammoth Mountain in CA and Mt. Saint Helens).

It's also completely obvious that earthquake activity would be happening in the uplift zone. Any crustal movement on the planet has the potential to generate earthquake activity, and this includes hotspot zones (YellowStone, Hawaii).

~X~
Quoting tornadodude:


Lol yeah, but check out my forecast:


This Afternoon: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind between 11 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 28.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.


Well, remember, before Christmas, you wanted the cold and the snow. Well, looks like you've got that and enjoy the "short" January thaw, which will endo tonight :0)
Tampa Spin, the Yellowstone activity is elevated, but that are has been a geological hot spot for many hundreds of thousands of years. The USGS has a real close eye on this area, and several others, due to their past violent eruptions.

I seriously doubt that Yellowstone will blow her top at this point, but at sometime in the future, we all realize a violent eruption will occur again.
Floodman, you have mail, I hope this helps out.
Goodnight all, 4am and I'm beat, Stay safe.
Quoting Xyrus:

1. The meteorology is a little slow at the moment and a lot of us have an appreciation for all things geophysics.
2. You could have simply stated that this is normal and nothing to be alarmed about, about which you may be completely correct!
3. You could have provided some sort of sourcing for said statements...might have been interesting reading and also bolstered your statement in point 2.
4. And as interesting it would have been to discuss point 2 with help from point 3, you just made yourself irrelevant in this one post. Most of us will likely now put you on the iggy list, thereby rendering anything you have to say in the future to likely being communicated into a near reader vacuum.
5. 99% of the posters here that autograph at the end are trolls. It is heavily correlated. Does one cause the other, or what? Have you noticed that in every comment the name of the person commenting appears right above the comment?

*where is that list...oh yeah...still warm from yesterday*
Quoting Bordonaro:
Tampa Spin, the Yellowstone activity is elevated, but that are has been a geological hot spot for many hundreds of thousands of years. The USGS has a real close eye on this area, and several others, due to their past violent eruptions.

I seriously doubt that Yellowstone will blow her top at this point, but at sometime in the future, we all realize a violent eruption will occur again.

Good example, thanks Bord!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Floodman, you have mail, I hope this helps out.
Goodnight all, 4am and I'm beat, Stay safe.


Sleep well, we're just starting our Sunday at 11:04AM Central Standard Time in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. Night-night.
We're here, Aussie! How are you doing?
Our long range forecast for late next week puts the Highs near 40F/ Lows near 25-30F, here in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Metroplex. I am kinda' afraid to read our Area Forecast Discussion, as we have had high temps in the 63-76F range for almost a week.
Gonna get cold again soon!
Quoting Floodman:
We're here, Aussie! How are you doing?

Mate, I am just about to head off to bed, I sent you WUmail. hope it helps
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Gonna get cold again soon!


Boo, hiss, boo, no, no, say it isn't so? I kinda figured the Arctic air would revisit in early Feb '10, with a cold, biting vengeance!

A portion of the Dallas-Ft Worth Area Forecast Discussion:

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED LOW TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND MORE
COMPACT WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS. THE DETAILS BEAR WATCHING AS
THE BOTH MODELS ALSO POINT TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH SHUTS
OFF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A
STRONGER...MORE WRAPPED UP SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WRAPPING UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD
KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO PLACE. EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF KEEPS THIS AREA JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF
NORTH TX LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO RECOVER
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...SO WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRUE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN.
@ Xyrus
Weather is based on climate and the climate is interconnected with the hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and geoshpere. (Thats not all)

An example how the geosphere leads the atmosphere, thus the weather outcome.

Eruption caused climate shift
http://www.sciencealert.com.au/news/20090506-19268.html

In return the weather can also trigger geospheric activities.
726. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Gonna get cold again soon!


What does Bastardi say?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Mate, I am just about to head off to bed, I sent you WUmail. hope it helps


Thanks, Aussie! The information will certainly be helpful; I will email Rossi and Juan right now and see what we can arrange...

Thanks, Aussie, we really appreciate the help!

Now get some rest; folks with backs like ours need the sleep...LOL
728. beell
Quoting Floodman:


Thanks, Aussie! The information will certainly be helpful; I will email Rossi and Juan right now and see what we can arrange...

Thanks, Aussie, we really appreciate the help!

Now get some rest; folks with backs like ours need the sleep...LOL

Thanks, I will message her to let her know your going to contact her and Juan. Goodnight
Quoting IKE:


What does Bastardi say?


He's bullish on it comming back.

You got mail Ike!
lol beell @ redicilous odd video ;)
First, this is a meteorological blog, not a geological one.

Then I guess you should explain that to Dr. Masters as well.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


He's bullish on it comming back.

You got mail Ike!


Its allowed to come back now.. we got home last night :)

KOG, release the fans :)
DONT DO IT KOG!!! Its A TRICK!!!!!


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
DONT DO IT KOG!!! Its A TRICK!!!!!




I was surprised how may people at our resort were from the GOM states... running way from the cold. Last day was so hot you could barely go outside on the beach... 30+ and high humidity.. made the ice in the drinks melt very fast.
good morning everyone!
any news of when portlight will do their interviews for the media?
Very windy here today, just came back from a camping trip. Hope this incoming storm doesn't get to crazy!
Quoting ElConando:
Very windy here today, just came back from a camping trip. Hope this incoming storm doesn't get to crazy!

My yard is so soggy that if it got windy here, I would expect to see waves...
728:
L M F A O !
738: That's a good one. Thanks for sharing.
largest flare in two years erupted on the sun begining jan 17 2010



STEREO (Behind) was in position to observe an M-class (moderate) solar flare (Jan. 17, 2010), the largest one detected for more than two years. It was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), seen as the large cloud of particles surrounding the bright flash as well as a wave of material spreading part way across the Sun. Solar activity level has been slumbering rather quietly, but this substantial active region has shown plenty of signs of life. Besides that flare, several other, smaller flares can be seen in the video (about 30 hours). The brightness of the flares causes the light to spread along pixel rows of the detector, its tell tale signature.
Atmo I was sinking the same sing.
LMAOROFL
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was surprised how may people at our resort were from the GOM states... running way from the cold. Last day was so hot you could barely go outside on the beach... 30+ and high humidity.. made the ice in the drinks melt very fast.
and you know who was really happy

lol
Yesterday, there were anti-prorogation protests all across Canada. Demonstrations also took place in New York City, San Francisco, London (England), The Hague, and Costa Rica.
Portlight Haiti relief update
Link
Solar Cycle is at minimum. So sun flares getting stronger is part of this cycle.


The problem is that we would have higher mean surface temperature while in an active periode of solar cycle.
Another factor contributing to the increase of climate change effects -on earth climate system, in the next years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Solar Cycle is at minimum. So sun flares getting stronger is part of this cycle.


The problem is that we would have higher mean surface temperature while in an active periode of solar cycle.
Another factor contributing to the increase of climate change effects -on earth climate system, in the next years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle


Yes, solar variation is a short-term forcing of climate change. This will likely accelerate global warming as to have the warmest year on record year after year until positive feedbacks take over.
somone may have already posted this info but it is too fascinating to miss - it appears the capacity to predict earthquakes may need only money, satellites, and analysts - the technology already exists:

Link

Of course, competition for funds may prevent its happening without grassroots pressure.
Afternoon everyone just went to grab something to eat. It's 86 degrees outside.
First, this is a meteorological blog, not a geological one.

Picky, picky, picky...I sink geology explains a lot about how the earth sinks...

(And hi to WaterWitch, thanks for your comment, how is California now, I sink it was glub, glub, glub badly for a bit.)
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
somone may have already posted this info but it is too fascinating to miss - it appears the capacity to predict earthquakes may need only money, satellites, and analysts - the technology already exists:

Link

Of course, competition for funds may prevent its happening without grassroots pressure.

Cannot get your link to work.

Public release date: 21-Jan-2010
Arizona State University
San Andreas Fault study unearths new quake information

TEMPE, Ariz. and IRVINE, Calif. %u2013 Recent collaborative studies of stream channel offsets along the San Andreas Fault by researchers at Arizona State University and UC Irvine reveal new information about fault behavior %u2013 affecting how we understand the potential for damaging earthquakes.

The researchers' findings encompasses their work at the Carrizo Plain, which is located 100 miles north of Los Angeles and site of the original "Big One" %u2013 the Fort Tejon quake of 1857. Applying a system science approach, the ASU-UCI team presents a pair of studies appearing Jan. 21 at Science Express that incorporates the most comprehensive analysis of this part of the San Andreas fault system to date.

In one of the studies, Ramon Arrowsmith, an associate professor in the School of Earth and Space Exploration in ASU's College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and Dr. Olaf Zielke employed topographic measurements from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), which provide a view of the earth's surface at a resolution at least 10 times higher than previously available, enabling the scientists to "see" and measure fault movement, or offset.

To study older earthquakes, researchers turn to offset landforms such as stream channels which cross the fault at a high angle. A once straight stream channel will have a sharp jog right along the fault and indicate that prior offset.

--------------------

"When we combine our offset measurements with estimates of the ages of the offset features determined by Lisa's team and the ages of prior earthquakes, we find that the earthquake offset from event to event in the Carrizo Plain is not constant, as is current thinking" Arrowsmith said.

"The idea of slips repeating in characteristic ways along the San Andreas Fault is very appealing, because if you can figure that out, you are on your way to forecasting earthquakes with some reasonable confidence," added Ludwig, an associate professor of public health. "But our results show that we don't understand the San Andreas Fault as well as we thought we did, and therefore we don't know the chances of earthquakes as well as we thought we knew them."


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-01/asu-saf012010.php
755. atmoaggie

That link has two http//

Fixed Link
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
755. atmoaggie

That link has two http//

Fixed Link

Ahh. I saw that and pulled out the extra...must have foobar'ed it...thanks.
Say, while everybody's watching football today, would you all please add your birthday date to BarnDweller's "Birthday List" blog?

I 'bout lost my mind keeping dates straight this busy Capricorn-goat month, there's so many of you!
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
somone may have already posted this info but it is too fascinating to miss - it appears the capacity to predict earthquakes may need only money, satellites, and analysts - the technology already exists:

Link

Of course, competition for funds may prevent its happening without grassroots pressure.


And that is very interesting.

Researchers believe the underside of the ionosphere, which is composed of negatively charged particles, is drawn downward as positive ions stream up from the Earth's surface before a quake.

-------------------

The NASA team uses a different technology based on satellite images familiar from weather forecasts. Such satellites measure the emission of invisible infrared light from the Earth's surface. Decades ago Russian physicist Andrew Tronin noticed that strong quakes are preceded by marked infrared emissions.

[insert: that makes sense...so long as the instruments are fairly sensitive]
Click my blog to see how active the sun spots were past couple of days building up to this 140 year plus event--it's all ELECTRICAL, baby!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Cannot get your link to work.



Try this:
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/earthquakes/story/1107324.html

The article appeared in today's Anchorage Daily News. Here is the headline info:

Haitian quake was predicted, some experts say

HIGH TECH: Satellite imaging showed fore-shock of 2002 Alaska quake.

By ALBERTO ENRIQUEZ
Special to the Daily NewsNed Rozell

Published: January 24th, 2010 09:36 AM
Last Modified: January 24th, 2010 09:36 AM


BTW Thanks for your post - very interesting. I have a daughter, sister and many cousins liiving along the San Andreas fault.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
755. atmoaggie

That link has two http//

Fixed Link


Thanks! Sorry I didn't notice that. I'm pretty inept at this electronic stuff. All tips, advice, corrections appreciated.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Thanks! Sorry I didn't notice that. I'm pretty inept at this electronic stuff. All tips, advice, corrections appreciated.


Whenever using the LINK or IMAGE button, remove anything in the pop-up address bar before pasting in the URL.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ahh. I saw that and pulled out the extra...must have foobar'ed it...thanks.


What is strong>foobar'ed?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Whenever using the LINK or IMAGE button, remove anything in the pop-up address bar before pasting in the URL.


Thanks!
Nice to finally break 80 degrees!
80.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


What is strong>foobar'ed?

Umm, oops, was supposed to be FUBAR'ed. (Wow, I need a coffee...I FUBAR'ed the FUBAR, even!)

As to what that means, well, google is your friend. Cannot spell it out here...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Umm, oops, was supposed to be FUBAR'ed. (Wow, I need a coffee...I FUBAR'ed the FUBAR, even!)

As to what that means, well, google is your friend. Cannot spell it out here...


Got it! That makes more sense.

I was wondering if foo powder would help prevent foo-barring.
GFS model

interesting..
Quoting Orcasystems:
.


Welcome home - did you get sunburned?
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Welcome home - did you get sunburned?


Nope.. tanned and fatter :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. tanned and fatter :)

Well, if happy with that, you could move down here...plenty of tan and NOLA-style good food (you know: butter marinated in butter basted with butter sauteed with butter topped with butter).

Though you might have to change to Okrasystems...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. tanned and fatter :)


Just visited your blog. Great pictures. You sure picked a good time to go, considering what has been going on here in CONUS. Amazing that your travel wasn't impacted. Glad you're home safe and had a wonderful vacation. (Did you eat that fish?)
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Just visited your blog. Great pictures. You sure picked a good time to go, considering what has been going on here in CONUS. Amazing that your travel wasn't impacted. Glad you're home safe and had a wonderful vacation. (Did you eat that fish?)


I think that they sell the fish to the resorts. I told them to do catch and release, but they said that they "give them away" to the poor.

We got 16 in 4 hours that day... ranging from 20 to 40+ lbs.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think that they sell the fish to the resorts. I told them to do catch and release, but they said that they "give them away" to the poor.

We got 16 in 4 hours that day... ranging from 20 to 40+ lbs.


Orca! How are you? You enjoyed your vaacation I trust?
Quoting Floodman:


Orca! How are you? You enjoyed your vaacation I trust?


Very much so.. I checked the blogs most days, but seldom posted. Usually just a quick look early in the morning, then I would go and watch the sunrise.

I also keep track of what was going on in Haiti and was presently surprised how much coverage it got in Mexico. Lots of people doing stuff in regards to helping and getting donations.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Not another Tornado Watch. Well hopefully things don't get too crazy this afternoon!
Orca, welcome back! Glad you're all rested and warm, toasty. Welcome back to reality!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Not another Tornado Watch. Well hopefully things don't get too crazy this afternoon!


seriously.. last time we had alot of wind up to 60mph.. wasnt fun when my pets were in my lap, and they aint small either lol.. looks i got sum storms comin in a lil bit tho.. so u think we get another cold air blast by the start of february but not as strong as the one at the end of december and start of january??
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


seriously.. last time we had alot of wind up to 60mph.. wasnt fun when my pets were in my lap, and they aint small either lol.. looks i got sum storms comin in a lil bit tho.. so u think we get another cold air blast by the start of february but not as strong as the one at the end of december and start of january??


Yes, the Arctic air is coming back. It will not be as severe as last outbreak about 1-10-10. However, N TX will go from the 60/70's for high down to the upper 30's, so it's a serious cold front. As of today, the cold snap will last about 3 days in TX, starting Th-Sa, with a Su warm-up in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. So, just get ready!
Quoting MethaneMike:
Click my blog to see how active the sun spots were past couple of days building up to this 140 year plus event--it's all ELECTRICAL, baby!


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2010 Jan 23 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Isolated low level B-flares were observed. Region 1041
(S24E35) is now classified as a Eai-beta with 9 spots. Region 1042
(N22W42) is now classified as a Cao-beta with 11 spots. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels with a slight chance for an isolated
M-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (24-26
January).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 085
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 085/086/087
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00

SUN Looks pretty quiet according to Noaa:
Been that way a lot longer than it ever has in the past.
Sorry for this political piece, but it is somekind of neutral news and affects future climate ;)

Election energizes climate bill talks
Graham, Kerry, Lieberman meet with Rahm Emanuel -- and then Chamber of Commerce, whose VP of Gov't Affairs said, “generally we were in synch"!
http://climateprogress.org/

The world needs more of this synch in order to solve future crisis and current.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yes, the Arctic air is coming back. It will not be as severe as last outbreak about 1-10-10. However, N TX will go from the 60/70's for high down to the upper 30's, so it's a serious cold front. As of today, the cold snap will last about 3 days in TX, starting Th-Sa, with a Su warm-up in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. So, just get ready!


ya will do! plus GFS models r sayin maybe a mix for me when that cold air comes down.. b/c there expecting more moisture.. but and again, depends if it forms on time with the cold air.. But some models have been giving the gulf coast alot of systems.. so we will c..
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yes, the Arctic air is coming back. It will not be as severe as last outbreak about 1-10-10. However, N TX will go from the 60/70's for high down to the upper 30's, so it's a serious cold front. As of today, the cold snap will last about 3 days in TX, starting Th-Sa, with a Su warm-up in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. So, just get ready!


KOG has the fans spinning up now that I am home :)

Snow??
wow its really humid and perfect for sum good storms.. :(
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. tanned and fatter :)


That's not good your white spots could get sunburned easier.
Recent graph 01/04/2010

Current Tornado Warnings:

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TIFTON...

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EMANUEL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
EASTERN TREUTLEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BEN HILL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
Potential Winter Storm for the south-east next weekend.


NWS in Blacksburg VA, Raleigh NC and Greenville SC are now telling viewers to monitor the forecast over the next few days for the potential winter storm next Friday - Sunday.


GFS bringing in cold air with deep moisture while the ECMWF brings in slightly warmer air. If model runs are consistent expect the chance of a winter storm to increase.



If I do recall there was a saying about thunderstorms in the winter brings in snow the next week!
idk if it was a glitch in my radar.. I thought i saw possible rotation nortwest of panama city.. thats just NNE of vernon..
794. Walshy, that caught my attention.

Does anybody see anything other than a low-to-moderate chance of snow for a bit farther north?

Right now we're under a flash flood watch, only, but it's supposed to rain all day tomorrow.

797. That looks cool. Surprised by the decent color and clarity.
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG has the fans spinning up now that I am home :)

Snow??

The precip may end as snow, sleet and or frezzing rain, with temps about 10 to 12 below normal for 3 days.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


ya will do! plus GFS models r sayin maybe a mix for me when that cold air comes down.. b/c there expecting more moisture.. but and again, depends if it forms on time with the cold air.. But some models have been giving the gulf coast alot of systems.. so we will c..


I haven't looked at any of the computer models for awhile, however I believe we may have more Arctic air move into the US than the current models are advertising. Just a hunch.
Quoting Bordonaro:

The precip may end as snow, sleet and or frezzing rain, with temps about 10 to 12 below normal for 3 days.


Watch me get blamed for it again...
Geez, glad Bordo showed up.

I killed the blog for awhile just asking a weather question. That's what I get for asking a Mid-Atlantic question...at least I can blame a lull on football, today anyway.
801. Orca, not this time. Long range GFS and ECMWF models hinted that we would have another Arctic air intrusion. I rate the last "big-gun" an 8 in severity, on a scale of 1 to 10, this Arctic outbreak one may be closer to a 4 or 5.
Quoting Bordonaro:
801. Orca, not this time. Long range GFS and ECMWF models hinted that we would have another Arctic air intrusion. I rate the last "big-gun" an 8 in severity, on a scale of 1 to 10, this Arctic outbreak one may be closer to a 4 or 5.


Nah, its the AFC playoff game that killed the blog, not you :0)
Indianapolis Colts 27, NY Jets 17; 4th quarter, 3:19 left in the game :0)
Quoting Bordonaro:
Indianapolis Colts 27, NY Jets 17; 4th quarter, 3:19 left in the game :0)

OMG, My Bad. Thanks for update.
Happy for T-Dude, TampaSpin, & other Indiana fans.
I do NOT like that 1051MB H over the NW Territories on the 18Z GFS on Day 5, 114 HRS out. It looks like it will not penetrate the US, if it does, well, ya know what happens, instant replay of the early Jan '10 Siberian outbreak!

Colts intercept the Jets, less than 2 minutes in the game, Colts 30, Jets 17.

Sorry, folks, I got pulled away from the blog for a little while; seems to happening a bit these days...LOL

Orca, I'm glad you enjoyed yourself; how is SWMBO?
Quoting Floodman:
Colts intercept the Jets, less than 2 minutes in the game, Colts 30, Jets 17.

Sorry, folks, I got pulled away from the blog for a little while; seems to happening a bit these days...LOL

Orca, I'm glad you enjoyed yourself; how is SWMBO?


SWMBO is relaxed and happy, which is the same as saying I am.. we know how that works :)

She was relaxed enough to be fishing Barracuda... with one on the line...and a beer in her other hand... at 730 in the morning. Can you get more relaxed?

Pic is in my blog comments
Portlight Haiti relief update
Link
Well, here go the NO Saints and the MN Vikings
Quoting Orcasystems:


SWMBO is relaxed and happy, which is the same as saying I am.. we know how that works :)

She was relaxed enough to be fishing Barracuda... with one on the line...and a beer in her other hand... at 730 in the morning. Can you get more relaxed?

Pic is in my blog comments


Outstanding! Well, give her LST and my best!
Reminds me, I've been reading "Divine Wind"~ Emanuel goes into hypercanes.. Says that moisture would vent up in the highest & normally driest layer, causing all sorts of chemical reactions & mass destruction of ozone..


okay is this coincidence if europe is expecting another cold air blast and maybe the US almost at similar time periods?? What ya'll think about this?
NAO looks a little better, not the consensious of another prolonged, extreme artic weather for the SE.

Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


okay is this coincidence if europe is expecting another cold air blast and maybe the US almost at similar time periods?? What ya'll think about this?


Because the NAO is expected to be negative. Just not as extreme as the last arctic blast.
Quoting Skyepony:


Because the NAO is expected to be negative. Just not as extreme as the last arctic blast.


Ya i agree with ya skye, that it wont be that extreme but still can be messy if theres alot of moisture in play.. like sum models indicating..
Well reading up on some articles about what they think might happen with this artic cold air for europe. there saying, it wont be as wide spread as last time like late december / early january..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Well reading up on some articles about what they think might happen with this artic cold air for europe. there saying, it wont be as wide spread as last time like late december / early january..


what i mean by widespread.. i mean the snow wont be widespread..
This is odd...







dropped 10 degrees the last 2 hours.. hmm

but i guess mostly everyone is watchin sum football lol
817
When the first siberian train arrived the US we had this too in europe here (starting around the beginning of december). Since than it pretty stayed this way. The siberian cold retreated a little but it was still below zero in most (northerly) parts of germany here. There has been many problems with public transport and electric shortages, especialy east of germany in poland. Cannot tell about russia though. The cold is considered by most as a real winter in long times. Each EU country has it's own story with this heavy winter which extended last "train" down to northern parts of africa (they reported snow) or florida for example. Around the equator (north/south) we see a lot of floods worldwide(cali, israel, saudi arabia, spain, albania, vietnam). In other areas it's snow. I think you can nail this down to an increase in precipitation - exactly what climate scientsit predict.
It's interesting that the 540 critical thickness was south of me while there was a thunderstorm...
829. eddye
Will it get cold again in se fl
Quoting Skyepony:
Reminds me, I've been reading "Divine Wind"~ Emanuel goes into hypercanes.. Says that moisture would vent up in the highest & normally driest layer, causing all sorts of chemical reactions & mass destruction of ozone..


Please give more info about this. Book? Author?

Ozone depletion

NASA projections of stratospheric ozone concentrations if chlorofluorocarbons had not been banned.

The ozone layer can be depleted by free radical catalysts, including nitric oxide (NO), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydroxyl (OH), atomic chlorine (Cl), and atomic bromine (Br). While there are natural sources for all of these species, the concentrations of chlorine and bromine have increased markedly in recent years due to the release of large quantities of manmade organohalogen compounds, especially chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromofluorocarbons.[3] These highly stable compounds are capable of surviving the rise to the stratosphere, where Cl and Br radicals are liberated by the action of ultraviolet light. Each radical is then free to initiate and catalyze a chain reaction capable of breaking down over 100,000 ozone molecules. The breakdown of ozone in the stratosphere results in the ozone molecules being unable to absorb ultraviolet radiation. Consequently, unabsorbed and dangerous ultraviolet-B radiation is able to reach the Earth’s surface.[citation needed] Ozone levels, over the northern hemisphere, have been dropping by 4% per decade. Over approximately 5% of the Earth's surface, around the north and south poles, much larger (but seasonal) declines have been seen; these are the ozone holes.

In 2009, nitrous oxide (N2O) was the largest ozone-depleting substance emitted through human activities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer#Ozone_depletion

Earth's growing nitrogen threat

It helps feed a hungry world, but it's worse than CO2.
While greening farms worldwide, much nitrogen washes into lakes, rivers, and the sea, causing rampant algae growth. More nitrogen billows from power-plant smokestacks, blowing in the wind until it settles as acid rain. Still other nitrogen gases remain in the atmosphere consuming the ozone layer. Nitrous oxide is nearly 300 times as potent as carbon dioxide – considered the leading cause of climate change – and the third most threatening greenhouse gas overall.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Living-Green/2010/0113/Earth-s-growing-nitrogen-threat

Possible solution for nitrogen threat see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biochar
Scientists create model of monster 'Frankenstorm'
LOS ANGELES (AP) - Think the recent wild weather that hammered California was bad? Experts are imagining far worse.

As torrential rains pelted wildfire-stripped hillsides and flooded highways, a team of scientists hunkered down at the California Institute of Technology to work on a "Frankenstorm" scenario - a mother lode wintry blast that could potentially sock the Golden State.

The hypothetical but plausible storm would be similar to the 1861-1862 extreme floods that temporarily moved the state capital from Sacramento to San Francisco and forced the then-governor to attend his inauguration by rowboat.

The scenario "is much larger than anything in living memory," said project manager Dale Cox with the U.S. Geological Survey.

In the scenario, the storm system forms in the Pacific and slams into the West Coast with hurricane-force winds, hitting Southern California the hardest. After more than a week of ferocious weather, the system stalls for a few days. Another storm brews offshore and this time pummels Northern California.

Such a monster storm could unleash as much as 8 feet of rain over three weeks in some areas, said research meteorologist Martin Ralph with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who is part of the project.

It makes the latest Pacific storm system look like a drop in the bucket. A weeklong siege of storms walloped California, flooding coasts and roads, spawning tornados and forcing the evacuation of about 2,000 homes below fire-scarred mountains for fear of mudslides. The National Weather Service said the storms dumped up to a foot in the mountains northwest of Los Angeles in a week.

Weather experts say West Coast storms could get more frequent and severe with climate change. Last fall, a team of federal, state and academic experts was formed to tackle what would happen if a series of powerful storms lashed at the state for 23 days. The scenario is expected to be completed this summer and will be used in a statewide disaster drill next year.

Ironically, the team had scheduled meetings at Caltech to learn about the fictional storm's impact to dams, sewage treatment plants, transportation and the electrical grid. About a dozen canceled due to the storms.

Full Article
Colts!! woo hoo!

how's everyone doing?
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Please give more info about this. Book? Author?



Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes

Amazon
Off topic ?...Does anyone have the software to convert a vro video file to a mpeg 1 file? Tried to download the software myself and went to a bad site. Just got the pc back to normal. A project for work. Just want to post a video on You Tube.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Off topic ?...Does anyone have the software to convert a vro video file to a mpeg 1 file? Tried to download the software myself and went to a bad site. Just got the pc back to normal. A project for work. Just want to post a video on You Tube.

Try this google search and checkout the topics
http://www.google.com/search?q=vro+convert+avi&as_rights=
Quoting tornadodude:
Colts!! woo hoo!

how's everyone doing?

You gotta' be kidding -- go to Patrap's blog!

Congrats, anyway!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

You gotta' be kidding -- go to Patrap's blog!

Congrats, anyway!


Lol thanks!

checked it out, looks kinda feisty! :P
Thank you Country and those that e-mailed me. Heads will roll tomorrow at work!
On a happier note...expecting some rain tomorrow and then some nice cool temps. for a few days!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes

Amazon


Thanks!
Portlight Haiti relief update
Link
Weather Underground Email Service for Johns Island, SC
Wind Advisory as of 9:59 PM EST on January 24, 2010

...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a Wind
Advisory...which is in effect until 5 am EST Monday.

Ahead of a strong cold front...south winds will average 25 to 35
mph with gusts as high as 45 mph overnight. After the cold front
passes late tonight...winds will shift to the southwest and will
diminish across the region.

SAINTS BABY!!!
Wow! What a day! Congrats to all with IN & LA connections.
Well I guess Pat is heading to the bar now!!!
WHOO HOO!! PARTY HEARTY!! I CAN'T REMEMBER EVER BEING THIS HAPPY ABOUT A FOOTBALL GAME, EVER!!
(Maybe Denver...a long time ago;
Redskins...can't hardly remember).
GO SAINTS -- (Colts awesome, too.)

IT'S GOING TO BE THE MOST FABULOUS SUPER BOWL EVER!!!!
The screams, car horns, and fireworks have been going on for a while now...erupted as soon as the field goal was good.

And I live 40 miles north of the city...
WHO DAT WHO DAT MO FOs.........TAKE US HOME BABY!!! WIN DA SUPER BOWL!!!

SENDING OUT BIG CONGRATS TO THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS...............THE SOUTH WILL RISE AGAIN!!!!
P.S.......LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!!!!
Not that the Vikings deserved to win with all the turnovers but, the referees flat took the game from the Vikings at the End. Colts will kill the SAints. Congratulations to the Saints Fans!
someone was looking out for those saints tonight...decent game till the end...
Phew nothing too serious so far here there was a skinny yet dangerous looking band coming but it fizzled out.

On another note, congrats to Colts and Saints fans! I'm sure NOLA will be partying into the afternoon xD.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Not that the Vikings deserved to win with all the turnovers but, the referees flat took the game from the Vikings at the End. Colts will kill the SAints. Congratulations to the Saints Fans!


agreed and seconded...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Not that the Vikings deserved to win with all the turnovers but, the referees flat took the game from the Vikings at the End. Colts will kill the SAints. Congratulations to the Saints Fans!


Ahh, the first of the "the referees lost the game for them" comments.
Quoting watchingnva:


agreed and seconded...


The 4th an 1 call he did not make it as he fumbled the ball and actually lost 1 yard as he should have lost his forward progress.....But it is what it is. Congratulations to all Colts and Saints Fans!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Ahh, the first of the "the referees lost the game for them" comments.


Hey the Vikings beat themselves with all the turnovers and yes one could say the Saints caused the turnovers. But, my guess would be that only SAints fans would say the bad calls by the referees at the end was not bad calls.....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey the Vikings beat themselves with all the turnovers and yes one could say the Saints caused the turnovers. But, my guess would be that only SAints fans would say the bad calls by the referees at the end was not bad calls.....LOL


Forcing fumbles and making a quarterback scramble and throw across his body to the middle of the field might have something to do with it. But, my guess would be that only a Vikings fan would dispute calls that were difficult to see at ground level for a referee and not even able to be over turned on review.
I will be conducting a SuperBowl Pool as a fundRaiser for Portlight.....details coming soon.! Email me if interested!
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL REACH
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 KNOTS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND JET STREAM ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE LINE REACHING LAKE COUNTY
STARTING AROUND 4 AM...AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR INTERSTATE 4
BY SUNRISE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR IS
STRONG AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO FORMATION. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF COINS.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
INTO MONDAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A METHOD TO RECEIVE WATCH AND
WARNING INFORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENSURE YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO HAS FRESH BATTERIES...IS SET TO ALERT AND IN A
LOCATION WHERE YOU CAN HEAR IT WHILE ASLEEP BEFORE RETIRING FOR
THE EVENING.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Forcing fumbles and making a quarterback scramble and throw across his body to the middle of the field might have something to do with it. But, my guess would be that only a Vikings fan would dispute calls that were difficult to see at ground level for a referee and not even able to be over turned on review.


ROFLMAO........NO Viking fan here but, was actually glad to see the Saints win. Just hated to see the bad calls made at the end! Hated to see that!
TO EVERYONE ON HERE I JUST HAVE TO SAY
WHO DAT? YEAH, WE GOT A BLACK AND GOLD SUPERBOWL!

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
SCC021-023-087-091-250445-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0004.100125T0405Z-100125T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1105 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
UNION COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF UNION...
SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EST

* AT 1102 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CROSS
KEYS...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...
UNION AND MONARCH MILLS...
JONESVILLE...
ADAMSBURG AND LOCKHART...
SARATT AND BULLOCK CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER.
OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME
OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. MAKE SURE THERE ARE AS MANY WALLS AND FLOORS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...
THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST MONDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8173 3457 8181 3460 8185 3476 8179
3506 8154 3485 8124 3455 8169 3455 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 221DEG 45KT 3462 8180

$$
MCAVOY







Quoting sarahjola:
TO EVERYONE ON HERE I JUST HAVE TO SAY
WHO DAT? YEAH, WE GOT A BLACK AND GOLD SUPERBOWL!

I suppose the ain'ts ain't the ain'ts no more...
Quoting atmoaggie:

I suppose the ain'ts ain't the ain'ts no more...



Ya they are cause they Ain't gonna beat the COLTS........LOL...Just having some fun..J/K


Best Check the Feb 7th Miami Long range forecast.

Bourbon Street has been re-named Drew Brees Blvd and Hell hath frozen Over..

The New Orleans Saints are coming to Miami for Super Bowl 44
hi guys 1 question before I go to bed when will we have our cool blast again?
This is like the best super bowl a Purdue student could ask for Lol Purdue Grad leading the Saint's and the Colt's from an hour down the road! gonna be great!!
Quoting Patrap:


Best Check the Feb 7th Miami Long range forecast.

Bourbon Street has been re-named Drew Brees Blvd and Hell hath frozen Over..

The New Orleans Saints are coming to Miami for Super Bowl 44


Might be a mud bowl Pat. Long range calls for a lot of rain for much of Florida for the first couple of weeks of Feb.
871. beell
Best Check the Feb 7th Miami Long range forecast.
Whatcha' want Pat? We'll start workin' on it now.
LOL..so far I have seen on here for the Super Bowl in Miami...Rain...Clear and cool...Average So. Fla. weather.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL..so far I have seen on here for the Super Bowl in Miami...Rain...Clear and cool...Average So. Fla. weather.


What won't be average is the amount of rain Florida maybe in store for down the road. Could be a superbowl similar to superbowl 41. This happens the Colts win hands down. Better hope for rain free weather Saints fans.
875. beell
For Miami-02/07/10:
A big ole fair-weather ridge over FL.
70's at the surface.
Quoting Jeff9641:


What won't be average is the amount of rain Florida maybe in store for down the road. Could be a superbowl similar to superbowl 41. This happens the Colts win hands down. Better hope for rain free weather Saints fans.


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys 1 question before I go to bed when will we have our cool blast again?


Some time during the first-second week of February.

Quoting beell:
Best Check the Feb 7th Miami Long range forecast.
Whatcha' want Pat? We'll start workin' on it now.


Long range models point to another extended arctic outbreak(but of course those from the northern Plain and the rest of the east and central states will still find Miami as an escape haven).
Quoting weatherbro:


Some time during the first week of February.



Long range models point to another extended arctic outbreak(but of course those from the northern Plain and the rest of the east and central states will still find Miami as an escape haven).


Thanks I need it
good night everyone keep well and safe
I think we've dried out here in San Diego...so nice to see the sunshine againe. Hope everyone in the southeast stays safe tonight.
A 'WHO DAT' WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UNITED STATES.

A 'WHO DAT' WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FOR MASS SPAMAGE, YELLING, OR SCREAMING OF 'WHO DAT'S' WILL SOON OR IS ALREADY OCCURRING.
Quoting ElConando:
A 'WHO DAT' WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UNITED STATES.

A 'WHO DAT' WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FOR MASS SPAMAGE, YELLING, OR SCREAMING OF 'WHO DAT'S' WILL SOON OR IS ALREADY OCCURRING.
.

Lol nice!
whats up everyone.. everyone being safe?
Quoting ElConando:
A 'WHO DAT' WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UNITED STATES.

A 'WHO DAT' WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FOR MASS SPAMAGE, YELLING, OR SCREAMING OF 'WHO DAT'S' WILL SOON OR IS ALREADY OCCURRING.


LMAO...as former residents of NOLA, we have already recieved the first wave of this oncoming weather phenomena; we expect further waves and squalls, increasing in intensity over the next two weeks...
hey guys check this GFS model out... gettin interestin..

GFS
I Love Mud Ball because of John Madden! What's he doing? Bring him back for the Super Bowl, please!
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


can this one be animated?
Scientists create model of monster 'Frankenstorm'
By ALICIA CHANG, AP Science Writer, Sun Jan 24

LOS ANGELES – Think the recent wild weather that hammered California was bad? Experts are imagining far worse.

As torrential rains pelted wildfire-stripped hillsides and flooded highways, a team of scientists hunkered down at the California Institute of Technology to work on a "Frankenstorm" scenario — a mother lode wintry blast that could potentially sock the Golden State.

The hypothetical but plausible storm would be similar to the 1861-1862 extreme floods that temporarily moved the state capital from Sacramento to San Francisco and forced the then-governor to attend his inauguration by rowboat.
AIM, my dear, you're still up? Well, good...can you go to the Portlight website...I just posted the long awaited up date; I've also posted the update to my blog...
Quoting Floodman:
AIM, my dear, you're still up? Well, good...can you go to the Portlight website...I just posted the long awaited up date; I've also posted the update to my blog...


Hi, dear "Jerry"! Was too revved up after game to go to sleep right away. Your link doesn't work because there is a comma after www instead of a period.

I did read the update to your blog, though; and the list of accomplishments regarding Haiti is rather astonishing. Your blog is well-written -- must have been a lot of work on its own.

I'm actually "coming down" or calming down now...yawn... I'll wu-mail you and LST tomorrow about this and that. Have a great night, everyone!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Hi, dear "Jerry"! Was too revved up after game to go to sleep right away. Your link doesn't work because there is a comma after www instead of a period.

I did read the update to your blog, though; and the list of accomplishments regarding Haiti is rather astonishing. Your blog is well-written -- must have been a lot of work on its own.

I'm actually "coming down" or calming down now...yawn... I'll wu-mail you and LST tomorrow about this and that. Have a great night, everyone!


Thank you, dear...the update was a coolaborative effort between Press and I; we tend to work well together...

Well, I'm going to take my wife off to bed; it's been along day and Morpheus beckons...
Quoting WaterWitch11:


can this one be animated?


nope sry waterwitch11.. what do u like to b called by ?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


nope sry waterwitch11.. what do u like to b called by ?


i've seen them abr. WW11 but waterwitch works for me. i like the images you post and thanks for responses!
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i've seen them abr. WW11 but waterwitch works for me. i like the images you post and thanks for responses!


no problem Waterwitch.. well im goin to bed! ya'll have a great night.. c ya'll later
896. xcool
i Don't care if we win or lose Super Bowl .we made history that all i care about
Quoting xcool:
i Don't care if we win or lose Super Bowl .we made history that all i care about


Hey xcool.. hope ur having a goodone mane.. well i thought i was leavin for bed but my eyes r wide awake.. blahh
898. xcool
FLPandhandleJG your too .
899. xcool
bye all
Quoting xcool:
bye all


Goodnight and good luck to the saints in the superbowl.. ;)
Good morning WU-Bloggers. No less than three tornado warnings since 3:30 am here in Jax.

We have about thirteen weather radios, this place is like NORAD. They ALL work very well.

Thanks, RainmanWeather. Link
902. OGal
Just a quick post from Winter Springs. We are still waiting for line of strong storms. I too was awakened by my weather radio. Have only heard of one tornado warning and it is to the north of me. These storms are moving at 60 miles per hour. Will go get another cup of coffee and just wait. Ready to move into safe room if need to.

Morning Aqua and all you other guys that are up watching these storms.
A good bit of lightning over my house this morning. Cloud to ground strikes.
Morning jeff9641, Rather quiet here when the rain moved thru. Lots of rain.
and here it comes, back to good ole winter

Good morning everyone! I will be watching a decent squall line that has developed over Central Florida and the Southwest GOM with an approaching cold front over the next several hours. It appears to be maintaining its intensity quite well as seen in the regional radar below.



Now, in analyzing the current environment preceding the squall line, the atmosphere has become unstable enough to produce a broken band of scattered thunderstorm action off the SE Florida coast. With a strong southerly wind, moisture should continue to increase before the front as short range models show precipitable water (PW) approaching 1.75 to 2 inches. This should be sufficient to maintain rainfall on the front. But with this wind, it may limit heating since there will be mixing occurring which is unfavorable for severe weather.

So, all in all, expect some good rains, strong gusty winds, and possibly a few strong storms across South Florida late this morning and into the afternoon before much cooler weather arrives across the state tonight.
Looks like Oak Hill may have had a Tornado. Titusville may be next.
Several tornado warnings around Central Florida this morning. As I was going to work this morning a tree had fallen on someones car in there driveway. I think I had wind gust of 50mph this morning as the line moved thru and .34 in the rain guage. My monthly total is now 4.45 inches and we may add another couple onto this on Saturday as another potent system moves in from the GULF.
Jaxsonville has their Preliminary storm report together.
Quoting Skyepony:
Jaxsonville has their Preliminary storm report together.


Those wind gust are right in line with mine. The wind was howling as this line moved thru.
What a game last night. The Vikings flat out handed the Saints a win last night. I have never seen a game end in such a fashion. All the Vikings had to do was kick a field goal and then it would have been over.
BEIRUT – An Ethiopian Airlines plane carrying 90 people caught fire and crashed into the sea minutes after taking off from Beirut early Monday, setting off a frantic search as passenger seats, baby sandals and other debris washed ashore. At least 34 bodies were recovered.
913. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:
What a game last night. The Vikings flat out handed the Saints a win last night. I have never seen a game end in such a fashion. All the Vikings had to do was kick a field goal and then it would have been over.


Vikings had the ball on the Saints 30 with just under a minute left. They got too conservative...then the 12 men on the field...then Favre could have picked up at least 5 yards running on that 3rd down play, instead he throws a pick. Plus the Vikings let about 30 seconds run off of the clock....I'm like...what are you doing...save your time...get to at least the 20 yard line!!!!!

(1)Poor clock management.
(2)Too conservative.
(3)They had the game won.
(4)They may have choked.

Saw this from the Jacksonville airport...Max Gust Speed 63 mph
Quoting IKE:


Vikings had the ball on the Saints 30 with just under a minute left. They got too conservative...then the 12 men on the field...then Favre could have picked up at least 5 yards running on that 3rd down play, instead he throws a pick. Plus the Vikings let about 30 seconds run off of the clock....I'm like...what are you doing...save your time...get to at least the 20 yard line!!!!!

(1)Poor clock management.
(2)Too conservative.
(3)They had the game won.
(4)They may have choked.

Saw this from the Jacksonville airport...Max Gust Speed 63 mph


I know they dominated the Saints and basically gave away a victory. Too many turnovers really done them in. Your right Farve could have ran another 5 or 8 yards.
915. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


I know they dominated the Saints and basically gave away a victory. Too many turnovers really done them in. Your right Farve could have ran another 5 or 8 yards.


I was just thinking...maybe he was hesitant because of his ankle.

I was also thinking I can't see Peyton Manning performing as badly in that last minute.

Favre is a great QB...but, he takes too many chances at times on throws. Throwing back against you is too risky. Should have run it Favre! FG kicker would have had about a 45-47 yarder. Unless he chokes, you win. Now you gotta live with it!

Congrats to the Saints. Good luck in the SB, but I think you're going down vs. Peyton.
Quoting IKE:


I was just thinking...maybe he was hesitant because of his ankle.

I was also thinking I can't see Peyton Manning performing as badly in that last minute.

Favre is a great QB...but, he takes too many chances at times on throws. Throwing back against you is too risky. Should have run it Favre! FG kicker would have had about a 45-47 yarder. Unless he chokes, you win. Now you gotta live with it!

Congrats to the Saints. Good luck in the SB, but I think you're going down vs. Peyton.


Yeah, I think the Saints are going to have a sloppy field waiting for them. So don't expect a high scoring SB.
Quoting IKE:


I was just thinking...maybe he was hesitant because of his ankle.

I was also thinking I can't see Peyton Manning performing as badly in that last minute.

Favre is a great QB...but, he takes too many chances at times on throws. Throwing back against you is too risky. Should have run it Favre! FG kicker would have had about a 45-47 yarder. Unless he chokes, you win. Now you gotta live with it!

Congrats to the Saints. Good luck in the SB, but I think you're going down vs. Peyton.


The ONLY reason you would have a 40-year-old quarterback is for those situations. If the 40-year-old quarterback is going to make rookie mistakes, there's no sense having him on the team.

It's sad for Favre, but that may have been the worst interception ever. Terrible, terrible decision.

Quoting BobinTampa:


The ONLY reason you would have a 40-year-old quarterback is for those situations. If the 40-year-old quarterback is going to make rookie mistakes, there's no sense having him on the team.

It's sad for Favre, but that may have been the worst interception ever. Terrible, terrible decision.



I agree I have never seen anything worse. They were essentially going to win the game on that last drive but Farve gave the game away.
I guess these storms didn't get their act together until they went through Tampa. They didn't even wake me up.
920. beell
Only problem with an old quarterback...
They get tired-of getting up off the ground.
Good Evening everyone, I have a present for someone here that called for ex-TC Olga to exit in to the Gulf of Carpenteria and re-intensify to a Cat. 3. That ain't going to happen as this map shows.


This is the present I have for them (it's a cake).
922. IKE
How you lose a football game......

1st and 10 at NO 33 C.Taylor right guard to NO 33 for no gain (R.Ayodele).
2nd and 10 at NO 33 A.Peterson right end to NO 33 for no gain (R.Ayodele, S.Ellis).
Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:19.
3rd and 10 at NO 33 PENALTY on MIN, Offensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
3rd and 15 at NO 38 B.Favre pass deep middle intended for S.Rice INTERCEPTED by T.Porter at NO 22. T.Porter to NO 48 for 26 yards (J.Sullivan).


I could understand calling those first 2 plays if you were on the.... 23 yard line. But, at the 33? It's a 50 yard FG! Get 10 more yards closer...gosh, you were moving the ball!

Sorry to get so off-topic.

EDIT>>>One more thing...Minnesota calls a timeout and then there's 12 men in the huddle? WTH?
Funny all the Saints er,knockers seem to come from my East.

LOL

Not any Fla teams even made da playoffs

All Whiners and no diners,..still.

Miami,..ere we come.

Who Dat?

We dat...
Farve on d ground,helmet on da side..turf inna mouth..

LOL
why do you take that as a knock on the Saints?? I was rooting for the Saints. Saints fans sure have thin skin.

It was really a terribly played game. If the Saints had played well, they would have won by 20. Saints tried to scoop and score on a couple fumbles and they ended up letting the Vikings recover.
Ocean temperatures off the east coast of Central Florida have warmed into the mid 60's after being 51 degrees at New Smynra Beach just 10 days ago. Just a indication of how warm it's been around here lately.
See ya in Miami..

Wu-------hatttttttt.....?


Back to Minnesota,..

Its a WUnderful Morning to fly,NORTH..!


Quoting BobinTampa:
why do you take that as a knock on the Saints?? I was rooting for the Saints. Saints fans sure have thin skin.

It was really a terribly played game. If the Saints had played well, they would have won by 20. Saints tried to scoop and score on a couple fumbles and they ended up letting the Vikings recover.


Sorry Pat, Saints better play better or they will lose the next one. No offense but the Vikings gave the game away.
Yeah,,and Im a Loli-pop, stud..LOL
Colts best get their collective ducks in a row,we Eat AFC Teams..

New Eng,Buffalo,Jets and well..even the NFC,Giants,Eagles,Wash,..we Beat all the N east Teams..LOL


We gonna Put our Native son Peyton,..
On da ground.


Ya can get Krunk with us today,studly one


Posers are Losers.

Who Dat?

We dat.

Plttttttttttttttttt......

LOL
alittle rain alittle wind another frontal passage nothing bad this parts e cent florida
Good morning The snow is once again falling here
918. You've never seen anything worse? Apparently, you didn't watch the chargers play last weekend. Ugh.
934. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
918. You've never seen anything worse? Apparently, you didn't watch the chargers play last weekend. Ugh.


That was awful too. They looked terrible...in their own stadium. Another choke job by their FG kicker.
Quoting melwerle:
918. You've never seen anything worse? Apparently, you didn't watch the chargers play last weekend. Ugh.


Oh yeah, Keating 3 missed FGS.
Quoting IKE:


That was awful too. They looked terrible...in their own stadium. Another choke job by their FG kicker.


the kickers have been predominantly awful this post season
Man the wind started really blowing last night around 1am till 5am in St. Petersburg, FL. At 3am it was blowing S 26 G 40.

Quoting StormChaser81:
Man the wind started really blowing last night around 1am till 5am in St. Petersburg, FL. At 3am it was blowing S 26 G 40.



I slept through the whole event.
Hey Pat I would get Krunk too because the Colts are going to beat up on DA Saints. Field will be wet and sloppy. Could be another SB 41 outcome. Drew is not that good outside of the dome.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Oh yeah, Keating 3 missed FGS.


it's kaeding :P
Quoting Jeff9641:
Hey Pat I would get Krunk too because the Colts are going to beat up on DA Saints. Field will be wet and sloppy. Could be another SB 41 outcome. Drew is not that good outside of the dome.


idk brees did pretty well at Purdue
The last super bowl in Miami should be a good game, although both teams will be out of their elements (outdoors vs indoors, natural field vs artificial field).
A squall line is affecting north coast of Pinar del Rio while the south-southwest wind rose cumulus congestus from the Isle of Youth to Havana provinces. Yesterday there were strong winds from the southeast and south in western Cuba with a wind gust of 67 km / h in Casablanca station and 53 km / h in Boca Jaruco. The new cold front arrived in the afternoon to Cuba will bring a drop in temperatures after 10 warm days following the period of lower average temperatures longer remember the Cubans.
Kaeding was a disgrace. However they got soooo many penalties for just being a bunch of sore-losing babies. Gimme a break...kicking the FLAG??? Grabbing peoples helmits? Come on...they DESERVED to lose.
947. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
Kaeding was a disgrace. However they got soooo many penalties for just being a bunch of sore-losing babies. Gimme a break...kicking the FLAG??? Grabbing peoples helmits? Come on...they DESERVED to lose.


I agree, they did.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Ocean temperatures off the east coast of Central Florida have warmed into the mid 60's after being 51 degrees at New Smynra Beach just 10 days ago. Just a indication of how warm it's been around here lately.
The weather here in Belize has been unusally hot for January to .Also what i noticed the 26c sea temperature line between cuba and yucaton the loop has gone from being belowe cuba to being above cuba
i'm sorry, can somebody point me in the direction of Dr. Master's blog?
Saw this on Facebook today:

"Shame on you America: the only country where we have homeless without shelter, children going to bed without eating, elderly going without needed meds, and mentally ill without treatment - yet we have a benefit for the people of Haiti on 12 TV stations. 99% of people won't have the guts to copy and repost this. I DID....."

sigh...
Quoting Minnemike:
i'm sorry, can somebody point me in the direction of Dr. Master's blog?


lol um
Quoting Minnemike:
i'm sorry, can somebody point me in the direction of Dr. Master's blog?


LOL,during the winter,you never know what you will find here,you might even find some references to weather.
Howdy, folks!

Super bowl XLIV is going ot be a good one; I hate the one sided contests.

For those that don't read the backblog, the Portlight website and my blog have been updated; go have a look!

Back soon; got to work on my day job a little this morning
Quoting NEwxguy:


LOL,during the winter,you never know what you will find here,you might even find some references to weather.


That is very uncommon though.
Quoting trinigal:
Saw this on Facebook today:

"Shame on you America: the only country where we have homeless without shelter, children going to bed without eating, elderly going without needed meds, and mentally ill without treatment - yet we have a benefit for the people of Haiti on 12 TV stations. 99% of people won't have the guts to copy and repost this. I DID....."

sigh...


I saw that about 10 times this morning on Facebook too.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I saw that about 10 times this morning on Facebook too.


Thank goodness only one person I know posted this. I'm a bit surprised that she would to tell the truth.

I understand worrying about people less fortunate here in our own country. My goodness, I do too and do what I can there as well but the ignorance in that post is just beyond me. I'd like to ship each and every person that posts that to Haiti so they can experience true poverty but, then again, I wouldn't want to add to the Haitians misery by sending these folks there.

Ugh!
Quoting trinigal:


Thank goodness only one person I know posted this. I'm a bit surprised that she would to tell the truth.

I understand worrying about people less fortunate here in our own country. My goodness, I do too and do what I can there as well but the ignorance in that post is just beyond me. I'd like to ship each and every person that posts that to Haiti so they can experience true poverty but, then again, I wouldn't want to add to the Haitians misery by sending these folks there.

Ugh!


Yeah, most of mine I think were just copying each other. Some of them I know have given to Haiti relief so it baffles me why they would post it.
Happy Australia Day everyone.
My country is 222years old today.
Happy Birthday to this great nation that I love to my bones. I'll have a few cold ones as I cook the BBQ and watch the cricket with my mates and family.
Cheers
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah, most of mine I think were just copying each other. Some of them I know have given to Haiti relief so it baffles me why they would post it.


It is poorly worded. Maybe they just don't understand what it is saying?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy Australia Day everyone.
My country is 222years old today.
Happy Birthday to this great nation that I love to my bones. I'll have a few cold ones as I cook the BBQ and watch the cricket with my mates and family.
Cheers


I may go to Outback tonight to celebrate!
Quoting trinigal:


It is poorly worded. Maybe they just don't understand what it is saying?


That's a possibility.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy Australia Day everyone.
My country is 222years old today.
Happy Birthday to this great nation that I love to my bones. I'll have a few cold ones as I cook the BBQ.
Cheers


Loved the song, Aussie.
Had a chance to watch part of the Youtube about forecasting earthquakes. The end explains the positive ions causing migraines in some people before quakes.

The IR emissions from the ground prequake is fascinating. I'd bet that's why Haiti has been on floater 1 since the big quake.
Quoting tornadodude:
and here it comes, back to good ole winter


;)
Here we go again Dallas-Ft Worth, TX MORE Arctic air on tap for TH 1-28-10:

www.portlight.org
Austrailia...what Canada could be if...well...if it were completely different in every way...
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

;)


Lol snowing pretty good
what a mess :p I do enjoy these types of snow showers tho. one minute sunny, next, basically blizzard conditions

Quoting trinigal:


Thank goodness only one person I know posted this. I'm a bit surprised that she would to tell the truth.

I understand worrying about people less fortunate here in our own country. My goodness, I do too and do what I can there as well but the ignorance in that post is just beyond me. I'd like to ship each and every person that posts that to Haiti so they can experience true poverty but, then again, I wouldn't want to add to the Haitians misery by sending these folks there.

Ugh!


I have to tell you that I find the "Isolationist" viewpoint pretty discouraging; I agree that those speaking the loudest abnout this should be sent to Haiti to spend a week working in the camps and shelters...
nws Corpus christi wow!!
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG SSE FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPR STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A SLT CHC TO LOW END CHC OF SHOWERS FAVORING NERN AREAS
WED-THU. AS WINDS INCREASE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
GULF WATERS (FOR WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE...MAINLY FOR SEAS NEARSHORE). A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU EVENING (LEANED
TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER DGEX/ECMWF SOLNS WRT TIMING). THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM WITH EARN AREAS AND
GULF ZONES STRONGLY FAVORED FOR POPS. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DRY
SLOTTING AND VEERING H85 FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DUE TO
POSITION OF THE UPR TROUGH TO THE NORTH...POPS ARE LIMITED AND HAVE
KEPT THEM AOB 40%. THIS IS A STRONG FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL
SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
. LOTS OF 30S ARE EXPECTED BY FRI
MORNING.
GFS EVEN PROGS A LIGHT ADVECTION FREEZE FOR NERN AREAS FRI
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. CLOUDS AND
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST ON FRI DUE TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND UPR ENERGY ASSOC W/ THE UPR TROUGH HANGING BACK BEHIND THE
FRONT. GFS ACTUALLY IS FORECASTING A SLEET SOUNDING ON FRI W/ TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE DAY
. AM SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE MID 40S TO UPR 40S AND THIS MAY STILL BE ON HIGH SIDE
ACCORDING TO SOME RAW MODEL TEMPS
. THE ECMWF AND DGEX ARE NOT
SHOWING THE 4000 FOOT DEEP FREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC THAT
THE GFS IS...SO NOT GOING TO MENTION AND WINTRY PRECIP FOR NOW.
ALSO...THE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND ISENTROPIC SFCS ARE NEUTRAL
AT BEST...SO POPS ARE PRETTY LOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SEEMS LOW FOR FRI.
Quoting Floodman:


I have to tell you that I find the "Isolationist" viewpoint pretty discouraging; I agree that those speaking the loudest abnout this should be sent to Haiti to spend a week working in the camps and shelters...


...let's send them to Canada...
Quoting presslord:
Austrailia...what Canada could be if...well...if it were completely different in every way...


LOL...
Quoting presslord:


...let's send them to Canada...


agreed :P

Sorry Orca! but thats what you get for going on a cruise without me! :P
Quoting presslord:


...let's send them to Canada...


LOL...do I see a theme starting here?
yep,winter is definitely making a come back this week,hope everyone didn't put their coats away yet.Punxatauney Phil may have something to say about our early arrival of spring

a lil bit of sleet/snow for houston on this look closely its there
Quoting jrweatherman:
First, this is a meteorological blog, not a geological one.

Then I guess you should explain that to Dr. Masters as well.


Ouch! but accurate. Lots of variables makes for
an interesting mix of ideas.
Quoting NEwxguy:
yep,winter is definitely making a come back this week,hope everyone didn't put their coats away yet.Punxatauney Phil may have something to say about our early arrival of spring


5.0 Date-Time Monday, January 25, 2010 at 17:04:07 UTC
Monday, January 25, 2010 at 08:04:07 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 58.633°N, 153.516°W
Depth 100 km (62.1 miles) set by location program
Region KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
Distances 73 km (45 miles) NNW (331°) from Aleneva, AK
93 km (58 miles) NNW (337°) from Port Lions, AK
98 km (61 miles) NW (324°) from Ouzinkie, AK
353 km (219 miles) SW (218°) from Anchorage, AK
just happened within the hour
Quoting Portlight:
www.portlight.org
Reminder: Please get recipe's together for "portlight cookbook" I just looked into MM34467 blog and found where she says Reipes slowly coming in. Any guys out there with great BBQ/smoker recipe's? Get together with friends, neighbors and get them together. I am attempting a school-wide recipe drive. Let's see what we can do on this so it can a spectacular cookbook and continue to line the coffers of "Portlight" cause we all know there will be more disasters.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Reminder: Please get recipe's together for "portlight cookbook" I just looked into MM34467 blog and found where she says Reipes slowly coming in. Any guys out there with great BBQ/smoker recipe's? Get together with friends, neighbors and get them together. I am attempting a school-wide recipe drive. Let's see what we can do on this so it can a spectacular cookbook and continue to line the coffers of "Portlight" cause we all know there will be more disasters.


Eyes, you rock! I'm putting together the recipes for my infamous stroganoff and chickan and dnmplings
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy Australia Day everyone.
My country is 222years old today.
Happy Birthday to this great nation that I love to my bones. I'll have a few cold ones as I cook the BBQ and watch the cricket with my mates and family.
Cheers


Thanks Aussie for both songs but especially Post 959.

Beautiful and awe-inspiring pictures of your great country and the song is lovely and heart warming.