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Strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest smashes all-time pressure records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2010

Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains swept through a large portion of the nation's midsection yesterday, thanks to the strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 24 tornado reports and 282 reports of damaging high winds from yesterday's spectacular storm, and the storm continues to produce a wide variety of wild weather, with tornado watches posted for Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, a blizzard warning for North Dakota, high wind warnings for most of the upper Midwest, and near-hurricane force winds on Lake Superior.

The mega-storm reached peak intensity late yesterday afternoon over Minnesota, resulting in the lowest barometric pressure readings ever recorded in the continental United States, except for from hurricanes and nor'easters affecting the Atlantic seaboard. So far, it appears the lowest reading (now official) was a pressure of 28.21" (955.2 mb) reduced to sea level reported from Bigfork, Minnesota at 5:13pm CDT. Other extreme low pressures from Minnesota during yesterday's storm included 28.22" (956 mb) at Orr at 5:34pm CDT, 28.23" at International Falls (3:45pm), and 28.23" at Waskuh at 5:52pm. The 28.23" (956mb) reading from International Falls yesterday obliterated their previous record of 28.70" set on Nov. 11, 1949 by nearly one-half inch of mercury--a truly amazing anomaly. Duluth's 28.36" (961 mb) reading smashed their old record of 28.48" (964 mb) set on Nov. 11, 1998. Wisconsin also recorded its lowest barometric pressure in history yesterday, with a 28.36" (961 mb) reading at Superior. The old record was 28.45" (963.4 mb) at Green Bay on April 3, 1982. The previous state record for Minnesota was 28.43" (963 mb) at Albert Lea and Austin on Nov. 10, 1998.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the October 26, 2010 superstorm taken at 5:32pm EDT. At the time, Bigfork, Minnesota was reporting the lowest pressure ever recorded in a U.S. non-coastal storm, 955 mb. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Yesterday's records in context
Yesterday's 28.21" (955 mb) low pressure reading in Minnesota breaks not only the 28.28" (958 mb) previous "USA-interior-of-the-continent-record" from Cleveland, Ohio during the Great Ohio Storm of Jan. 26, 1978 (a lower reading in Canada during this event bottomed out at an amazing 28.05"/950 mb), but also the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the continental United States aside from the Atlantic Coast. The modern Pacific Coast record is 28.40" (962mb) at Quillayute, Washington on Dec. 1, 1987. An older reading, taken on a ship offshore from the mouth of the Umpqua River in Oregon during the famous "Storm King" event on January 9, 1880, was 28.20" (954.9 mb)--slightly lower than the 2010 storm.

The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10" (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor'easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini, "Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading from anywhere in the United States was a 27.35" (927 mb) reading at Dutch Harbor, Alaska on Oct. 25, 1977. The lowest hurricane pressure reading was the 26.34" (892 mb) recorded in 1935 during the Great Labor Day Hurricane.


Figure 2. Storm reports received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center from the October 26, 2010 superstorm.

The six most intense storms in history to affect the Great Lakes
According to the Chicago branch of the National Weather Service and Christopher C. Burt, our Weather Records blogger, the following are the six lowest pressures measured in the U.S. Great Lakes region:

1. Yesterday's October 26, 2010 Superstorm (955 mb/28.20")
2. Great Ohio Blizzard January 26, 1978 (958 mb/28.28")
3. Armistice Day Storm November 11, 1940 (967 mb/28.55")
4. November 10, 1998 storm (967 mb/ 28.55")
5. White Hurricane of November 7 - 9, 1913 (968 mb/28.60")
6. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm of November 10, 1975 (980 mb/28.95")

So, the famed storm that sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald in 1974, killing all 29 sailors aboard, was weaker than the current storm. Indeed, I wouldn't want to be on a boat in Lake Superior today--sustained winds at the Rock of Ages lighthouse on Isle Royale were a sustained 68 mph, gusting to 78 mph at 3am EDT this morning!

Yet Another Remarkable Mid-latitude Cyclone so far this Year!
Yesterday's superstorm is reminiscent of the amazing low pressures reached earlier this year (Jan. 19-22) in the West, where virtually every site in California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho--about 10 - 15% of the U.S. land area--broke their lowest on record pressure readings. However, the lowest readings from that event fell well short of yesterday's mega-storm with 28.85" (977 mb) being about the lowest recorded at any onshore site.

Commentary
We've now had two remarkable extratropical storms this year in the U.S. that have smashed all-time low pressure records across a large portion of the country. Is this a sign that these type of storms may be getting stronger? Well, there is evidence that wintertime extratropical storms have grown in intensity in the Pacific, Arctic, and Great Lakes in recent decades. I discuss the science in detail in a post I did earlier this year. Here is an excerpt from that post:

General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Another area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles west of 90L is disorganized, and is also being given a 10% chance of developing.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and hopefully the weather in the rest of the country will slow down enough so I can write about goings-on here at the Hurricane Center!

Christopher C. Burt is responsible for most of the content of this post, with the exception of the commentary, which I wrote.

Jeff Masters
The Big Blow!
The Big Blow!
This photo and the other in my series were both take from the same spot ... just different directions and just a representative scene mirroring so many others here in the midwest. These were taken yesterday morning right after the thunderstorm front had gone through but the winds continued to increase in intensity as the barometer dropped ... to a record low in some midwest spots. The big Blow was the equivlant of a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane and indeed a very unusual storm in the upper midwest for this time of the year.
Cell Rotation Animation
Cell Rotation Animation
Gif Created on Make A Gif
Disappearing Pier 5
Disappearing Pier 5
I posted a video of continuous hits at youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckrpWF-dXwU
October Storm
October Storm

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH .....

WE ARE ALOT A LIKE IN MANY WAYS YOU AND I EXCEPT ONE

THERE ARE
BILLIONS OF YOU
YET
ONLY ONE OF ME.......
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam that i am


Popeye, right?
Quoting JupiterFL:


I'll take my chances.

That's fine. The problem is that your risk-taking vis-a-vis GW can't be done in isolation, so it's affecting me, too...
Quoting Quadrantid:
Eep -- I seem to be attempting to break the record for the greatest average number of words per post. Sorry for the epic walls of text folks... the curse of being passionate about things, and typing fast enough to create streams of consciousness...

@476 -- wow -- the eye is amazing! awesome images!


here is a rerun now thats an eye
best of the best
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's fine. The problem is that your risk-taking vis-a-vis GW can't be done in isolation, so it's affecting me, too...


One is tempted to say that that risk-taking is tyrannical.
Evening all.....just on for a minute....Brother just talked me into driving to North for Fishing tomorrow in the GOM. I see we have 3 Invest but, 91L is in a nice spot to cause some problems. I had that pegged this morning to watch it. Looking pretty good considering all the Shear it is under.
Quoting Birthmark:


I realize that it is inferred that the party must close down. But that inference displays a remarkable lack of imagination and confidence, imo.

But even if it does indicate that the party must end...well, most parties do end once the house catches fire. Even the good parties.

I was being sarcastic.
I am all for the reduction of pollutants (of all kinds).
Unfortunately, I admit that currently we have no options available.
We MUST burn fossil fuel.
That's the problem.

Changing 8 lightbulbs at home is not the answer, as you know.
But what is????
403: I just wanted to point out that not all oil comes from the Carboniferous. There are reservoirs as young as 20 million years old.
Also, the source of extinction events are not generally agreed upon. Sure the Siberian Traps correspond to the P-T extinction, but so did the coming together of Pangea and the effect of paleobiodiversity has to be taken into account when discussing extinctions on the scale of the P-T one. Same can be applied to the K-T extinction and the breakup of Pangea.
I'm out...science and art, art and science...sorry for those I bored, thanks to those that made a great input. Let's have a true debate without labels or agendas...any weather subject. Nite...
Quoting Birthmark:


Popeye, right?


Actually, spinach good.

Now that Neapolitan and myself have established that we are in violent agreement on something (energy efficiency... there is no reason why we cannot get rid of 1/2 of our national carbon output in 10 years)...

Plastics bad. Plastics bad. Tea Party folks really need to take note of this (eat lots of spinach is good and prevents the impact on males)

Endocrine disruption

Quoting Birthmark:


LOL

Don't get me started on God! ;)

OK
heheheh
Quoting AEKDB1990:
Calusakat, once again you are not telling the truth. The emails were not leaked. They were stolen. Hacked. And the hackers are criminals who violated the law.

And you lied about and slandered honest scientists, which every review of the Climate Research Unit exonerated. Data was not falsified, as you said.

Slandering honest scientists as you do is reprehensible and disgusting.

So, leaked is not the same as stolen???

Hmmm

leak : to give out (information) surreptitiously

surreptitious: obtained, done, made, etc., by stealth; secret or unauthorized; clandestine

A synonym for unauthorized is 'illegal'


Hmmm

Goodness...it would appear that the more you protest, the more you dig the hole to bury yourself.

Those communications between all those scientists were leaked.

Those leaks simply verified what was already public knowledge that had been reported by the global news media regarding admissions of various meteorological agencies that data was and continues to be altered.

Altering data is wrong.


Quoting Quadrantid:
Eep -- I seem to be attempting to break the record for the greatest average number of words per post. Sorry for the epic walls of text folks... the curse of being passionate about things, and typing fast enough to create streams of consciousness...

@476 -- wow -- the eye is amazing! awesome images!
Quad, don't try and explain it to them. Never has one budged. They love the land rovers and hummers too much and can't bear the guilt.

BTW, I saw a fantastic brand new HD show on cable last week about recent discoveries in the Milky Way. The pictures from Hubble and several of the land based observatories and the supercomputer simulations of colliding galaxies were fabulous. Didn't know we lived in a Goldielocks zone in the Milky Way too.
Quoting AEKDB1990:


I heard you steal pics from wunderground users and put them on sex sites too. And that's not a lie. I have heard it.



STSimons, you are double busted. Get a life. Admin will not look kindly on your duplicity.
Quoting pottery:

I was being sarcastic.
I am all for the reduction of pollutants (of all kinds).
Unfortunately, I admit that currently we have no options available.
We MUST burn fossil fuel.
That's the problem.

Changing 8 lightbulbs at home is not the answer, as you know.
But what is????


There is no easy answer at this point, if you are asking what succeeds fossil fuels. But we're going to run out of fossil fuels someday anyhow, so we might as well begin working on that answer now. Solar, wind, nuclear, wave, etc. all provide partial answers. Every drop of oil or lump of coal that we don't burn buys a tiny bit more time to figure out what answers are useful.
Quoting calusakat:

So, leaked is not the same as stolen???

Hmmm

leak : to give out (information) surreptitiously

surreptitious: obtained, done, made, etc., by stealth; secret or unauthorized; clandestine

A synonym for unauthorized is 'illegal'


Hmmm

Goodness...it would appear that the more you protest, the more you dig the hole to bury yourself.

Those communications between all those scientists were leaked.

Those leaks simply verified what was already public knowledge that had been reported by the global news media regarding admissions of various meteorological agencies that data was and continues to be altered.

Altering data is wrong.



You are missing the point.
The 'altered data' was shown to be practically meaningless, in the overall conclusion.
Feel free to diss this remark, but you are not listening. WHY???
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Quad, don't try and explain it to them. Never has one budged. They love the land rovers and hummers too much and can't bear the guilt.

BTW, I saw a fantastic brand new HD show on cable last week about recent discoveries in the Milky Way. The pictures from Hubble and several of the land based observatories and the supercomputer simulations of colliding galaxies were fabulous. Didn't know we lived in a Goldielocks zone in the Milky Way too.
wait till ya see the big bad wolf
I think i came in at a bad time.....see you all......GET A LIFE for some of you!
Quoting Birthmark:


There is no easy answer at this point, if you are asking what succeeds fossil fuels. But we're going to run out of fossil fuels someday anyhow, so we might as well begin working on that answer now. Solar, wind, nuclear, wave, etc. all provide partial answers. Every drop of oil or lump of coal that we don't burn buys a tiny bit more time to figure out what answers are useful.


Amen.

Waste is bad.

We ought to tax waste. A waste tax. If folks have money to burn give it to the public treasury.
Quoting pottery:

You are missing the point.
The 'altered data' was shown to be practically meaningless, in the overall conclusion.
Feel free to diss this remark, but you are not listening. WHY???
cause they don't want too
Quoting calusakat:

So, leaked is not the same as stolen???

Hmmm

leak : to give out (information) surreptitiously

surreptitious: obtained, done, made, etc., by stealth; secret or unauthorized; clandestine

A synonym for unauthorized is 'illegal'


Hmmm

Goodness...it would appear that the more you protest, the more you dig the hole to bury yourself.

Those communications between all those scientists were leaked.

Those leaks simply verified what was already public knowledge that had been reported by the global news media regarding admissions of various meteorological agencies that data was and continues to be altered.

Altering data is wrong.




Leaking means they were leaked by someone within the organization. The emails were hacked and stolen by hackers.

So once again, you lie. And you refuse to be honest about it.

Calusakat, every review and report of the 'climategate' affair has said the scientists did nothing wrong, and did not alter data.

Why do you keep lying and saying the scientists did alter data. Why do you keep lying over and over about this when every report says that what you say is not true?
Quoting calusakat:

So, leaked is not the same as stolen???

Hmmm

leak : to give out (information) surreptitiously

surreptitious: obtained, done, made, etc., by stealth; secret or unauthorized; clandestine

A synonym for unauthorized is 'illegal'


Hmmm

Goodness...it would appear that the more you protest, the more you dig the hole to bury yourself.

Those communications between all those scientists were leaked.

Those leaks simply verified what was already public knowledge that had been reported by the global news media regarding admissions of various meteorological agencies that data was and continues to be altered.

Altering data is wrong.




That is nonsense on virtually every score. For instance, what data was "altered" and in what way was it "altered?"
i guess winter really is coming GW abound


WU Admin, thank you for not removing comments regarding the latest exchange. Some things need to be exposed. Kudos.
Quoting Birthmark:


There is no easy answer at this point, if you are asking what succeeds fossil fuels. But we're going to run out of fossil fuels someday anyhow, so we might as well begin working on that answer now. Solar, wind, nuclear, wave, etc. all provide partial answers. Every drop of oil or lump of coal that we don't burn buys a tiny bit more time to figure out what answers are useful.

Agreed.
There is nothing on the horizon now, that we can have confidence in to replace oil.
There will be a period of absolute confusion when the stuff hits the fan.
Or, maybe we can find more oil....
You have any evidence I am someone else PSLFLCaneVet or you just like to post accusations without evidence. Unless you have evidence, you're just a troll.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


WU Admin, thank you for not removing comments regarding the latest exchange. Some things need to be exposed. Kudos.


Actually, there is progress since Nea and I are on the same side on this one (I think).

Bickering not allowed....
Well, my DayPlanner says it's 10/27, but the tropics seem to have forgotten to synchronize their calendars:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image



Lots of lightning around 92L, a lesser amount in 90L, and just a small handful of strokes among 91L.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


90L's 850mb vorticity looks good though elongated, while 92L's is steadily increasing and 91L's is slowly getting better. The Super Duper Monster Mega Low of 2010 is still pretty darned noticeable, of course...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Birthmark:


That is nonsense on virtually every score. For instance, what data was "altered" and in what way was it "altered?"


The data wasn't altered--I posted links to every official report back in the late 300s. Calusakat is just making stuff up.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wait till ya see the big bad wolf
I don't get it. :(
Quoting Birthmark:


Popeye, right?
if thats what you want to call it you have your own choice to make choose wisly
Quoting pottery:

Agreed.
There is nothing on the horizon now, that we can have confidence in to replace oil.
There will be a period of absolute confusion when the stuff hits the fan.
Or, maybe we can find more oil....


That will be within 15 years... or sooner. My company says 2025 and they are the latest of the non-deniers.
Quoting pottery:

You are missing the point.
The 'altered data' was shown to be practically meaningless, in the overall conclusion.
Feel free to diss this remark, but you are not listening. WHY???

Pottery, respectfully, you are the one who is not listening.

Altering data is wrong in any research paradigm.

Can anyone imagine the howling that would occur if some drug company admitted that their claims of 'safe for human consumption' was based in any part on altered data?

Altering climate data is just as wrong.

And we haven't even begun to discuss the refusal of some of those so-called scientists who refuse to release their methodology (ie assumptions used in their software, claiming copyright protections.



Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, there is progress since Nea and I are on the same side on this one (I think).

Bickering not allowed....


No offense, but I was referring to a member who was perma-banned. I do like the exchange of ideas, regarding GW. Carry on, please.
Quoting AEKDB1990:
You have any evidence I am someone else PSLFLCaneVet or you just like to post accusations without evidence. Unless you have evidence, you're just a troll.



Well then, following the flow of this blog, you aren't providing evidence that you're not SSI.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Quad, don't try and explain it to them. Never has one budged. They love the land rovers and hummers too much and can't bear the guilt.

BTW, I saw a fantastic brand new HD show on cable last week about recent discoveries in the Milky Way. The pictures from Hubble and several of the land based observatories and the supercomputer simulations of colliding galaxies were fabulous. Didn't know we lived in a Goldielocks zone in the Milky Way too.


Whee -- we're getting onto the question of habitability -- and that's something I have done work on :) In fact, I put together a review paper with my old boss at the Open University a few months ago discussing all the various things that can influence the degree to which planets elsewhere could be habitable... some here might find it interesting (so I'll unashamedly link it here -- admin, if that's inappropriate, please feel free to remove it :P)

Which reminds me, need to update my webpage now I've changed countries :P

The galactic habitable zone (Goldilocks zone) is an interesting concept -- though I think (as always) we need more/better data to talk about it in depth :) Fortunately, in the near future, all the exoEarths we find will be very local, so I suspect that the galactic location argument won't play a big role in working out which to consider in the search for life... I could well be wrong though!
Quoting calusakat:

Pottery, respectfully, you are the one who is not listening.

Altering data is wrong in any research paradigm.

Can anyone imagine the howling that would occur if some drug company admitted that their claims of 'safe for human consumption' was based in any part on altered data?

Altering climate data is just as wrong.

And we haven't even begun to discuss the refusal of some of those so-called scientists who refuse to release their methodology (ie assumptions used in their software, claiming copyright protections.




Altering data is WRONG.
Using that one episode to deny the obvious, while ignoring hundreds of other facts is WRONG.
they're giving 90L a 50% chance of forming in the next 48 hours.
I can't prove anything. They are the ones making the accusations. So don't annoy me
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Well then, following the flow of this blog, you aren't providing evidence that you're not SSI.




I'll wait for evidence that you are not SSI first (I don't know who that was/is btw) And I'll wait for evidence that PSLFLCaneVet is not this SSI character. And unruly. And Calusakat. And Pottery. And Neapolitan. And Birthmark. And EnergyMoron. And 1900hurricane. And Grothar. And
RipplinH20.

See you in the morning!

And of course KeeperoftheGate.
And anyone else I left out.
UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

update at 11pm
Quoting calusakat:

Pottery, respectfully, you are the one who is not listening.

Altering data is wrong in any research paradigm.

Can anyone imagine the howling that would occur if some drug company admitted that their claims of 'safe for human consumption' was based in any part on altered data?

Altering climate data is just as wrong.

And we haven't even begun to discuss the refusal of some of those so-called scientists who refuse to release their methodology (ie assumptions used in their software, claiming copyright protections.





Again, more nonsense. The vast majority of the data and much of the code is on-line. You can go here, for instance: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

Actually, you are posting double nonsense since if the climatologists are wrong in any non-trivial way, it should be for denialists to simply download the data, write their own code, and show exactly and precisely where the climatologists are wrong. This hasn't been done.

There is a reason for that. ;)
Quoting AEKDB1990:
I can't prove anything. They are the ones making the accusations. So don'


I'll wait for evidence that you are not SSI first (I don't know who that was/is btw) And I'll wait for evidence that PSLFLCaneVet is not this SSI character. And unruly. And Calusakat. And Pottery. And Neapolitan. And Birthmark. And EnergyMoron. And 1900hurricane. And Grothar. And
RipplinH20.

See you in the morning!

And of course KeeperoftheGate.
And anyone else I left out.

WHEW!!!
LOL to that!
heheheheh
UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Whoa.... looks like Shary might be on the way.
Quoting pottery:

Altering data is WRONG.
Using that one episode to deny the obvious, while ignoring hundreds of other facts is WRONG.


Pottery:

I can understand your frustration (it isn't as bad as you think).

Changing those 8 CFLs can save you money however.

While I respect the work of serious climate scientists (even if they mash statistics, and that is the official result of the climategate inquiry)...

Getting rid of 8 CFLs... take that high carbon Al Bore.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, my DayPlanner says it's 10/27, but the tropics seem to have forgotten to synchronize their calendars:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image



Lots of lightning around 92L, a lesser amount in 90L, and just a small handful of strokes among 91L.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


90L's 850mb vorticity looks good though elongated, while 92L's is steadily increasing and 91L's is slowly getting better. The Super Duper Monster Mega Low of 2010 is still pretty darned noticeable, of course...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
prediction by me, is that if all three of these invests form, that it would go in this order:
90L=Shary
91L=Tomas
92L=Virginie
Quoting hurristat:
UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Whoa.... looks like Shary might be on the way.
they state that its becoming better organized.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


WU Admin, thank you for not removing comments regarding the latest exchange. Some things need to be exposed. Kudos.
The dude you're talking about had some strange things going on. He was always stirring up the pot.
Quoting Birthmark:


Again, more nonsense. The vast majority of the data and much of the code is on-line. You can go here, for instance: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

Actually, you are posting double nonsense since if the climatologists are wrong in any non-trivial way, it should be for denialists to simply download the data, write their own code, and show exactly and precisely where the climatologists are wrong. This hasn't been done.

There is a reason for that. ;)

How do you expect the quarrel to continue, if you keep making posts like that?
I trust he has a response?
UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAYBE A TROPICAL STORM SOON
Quoting AEKDB1990:
You have any evidence I am someone else PSLFLCaneVet or you just like to post accusations without evidence. Unless you have evidence, you're just a troll.



Comments put up before I responded say a lot. You have made your own bed. Handles are irrelevant. The tone of your commentary is all most need. Hello, SSI.
Yesterday, I thought that we didn't have a shot at getting to the Greek letters.

Now, I'm not so sure.
Quoting pottery:

How do you expect the quarrel to continue, if you keep making posts like that?
I trust he has a response?


Evening Gang.....you got drama??
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Pottery:

I can understand your frustration (it isn't as bad as you think).

Changing those 8 CFLs can save you money however.

While I respect the work of serious climate scientists (even if they mash statistics, and that is the official result of the climategate inquiry)...

Getting rid of 8 CFLs... take that high carbon Al Bore.

Saving money is high on my agenda, these days.
So I will proceed accordingly.
Sorry for Al....
Quoting pottery:

WHEW!!!
LOL to that!
heheheheh


Seriously? Grothar,, Pottery, do you think I am impersonating myself?
556. txjac
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably
I really don't need a Storm right now. I've just painted most of my house and I don't want to paint again !!!!! Go away 91L !!!!!
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Leaking means they were leaked by someone within the organization. The emails were hacked and stolen by hackers.

So once again, you lie. And you refuse to be honest about it.

Calusakat, every review and report of the 'climategate' affair has said the scientists did nothing wrong, and did not alter data.

Why do you keep lying and saying the scientists did alter data. Why do you keep lying over and over about this when every report says that what you say is not true?

I guess the next thing that needs to be done is for you to explain the following statement in your post #361

"LONDON, UK, March 31, 2010 (ENS) - An investigation into leaked emails by British climate scientists that appeared to indicate a conspiracy to manipulate data to bolster a case for global warming has cleared the scientists of wrongdoing."

Notice that they used the word 'leaked', not me.

BTW - ENS stands for Environment News Service and also note that just a few paragraphs further into that same article was this statement.

"The committee does call for the climate science community to become more transparent by publishing raw data and detailed methodologies.

Committee Chair Phil Willis MP said, "What this inquiry revealed was that climate scientists need to take steps to make available all the data that support their work and full methodological workings, including their computer codes. Had both been available, many of the problems at CRU could have been avoided."

Sound familiar??




560. 7544
looks like 91l might get named first and looks where the hwrf takes her hmmmm she could be named a fter dmax tonight imo
Quoting traumaboyy:


Evening Gang.....you got drama??

Nahhhh!
Everything is cool and peaceful.
Except the Atlantic. And as you know, the Atlantic Season is over. Long time...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280239
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Complete TWO...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GA/CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 736...737...

VALID 280241Z - 280345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 736...737...CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
SRN DELMARVA SWWD THROUGH SRN VA...CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL
GA. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES EAST OF ANY LOCATION...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.

THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
PROGRESSING EWD AT 20-25 KT INTO A MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS 70+ F/
AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE RANGING 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SBCINH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE STATES...EFFECTIVE INFLOW PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST PARCELS REMAIN SURFACE BASED LIKELY DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOCATED ACROSS SERN VA
TO NRN/NERN NC
WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 200-300
M2/S2...GIVEN PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ. FARTHER S INTO
SC...SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

..PETERS.. 10/28/2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Comments put up before I responded say a lot. You have made your own bed. Handles are irrelevant. The tone of your commentary is all most need. Hello, SSI.


Not me. And you can blather all you want. But you have no evidence.

Prove to me you're not SSI.

(regardless of who SSI was and whatever he was banned for I admire him for getting under your skin. Which by your obsession with him he obviously did. Very much so :)
Quoting txjac:
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably


Been using those bulbs for over four years now and I did the math last year.

We are saving over $350 per year in electricity.

Quoting txjac:
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$
havent been able to keep up with my blog lately but i do want to make my first poll since richard died off.LOL(which was about 1 day or two ago).

POLL TIME:
In the long run, do you think all of these invest will form?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) TWO OF THEM
(D) ONLY ONE OF THEM
(E) I DON'T KNOW

In the next TWO 90L have an...
(A) 50% OR LOWER
(B) 60%
(C) 70%
(D) 80% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 91L have an...
(A) 30% OR LOWER
(B) 40%
(C) 50%
(D) 60%
(E) 70% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 92L have an...
(A) 20% OR LOWER
(B) 30%
(C) 40%
(D) 50%
(E) 60% OR MORE

I think A or C, B, B, and A
Quoting pottery:

Nahhhh!
Everything is cool and peaceful.
Except the Atlantic. And as you know, the Atlantic Season is over. Long time...


True.....Good thing....will not complain with this buzy of a season and nearly no impact to CONUS!!
Quoting pottery:

Saving money is high on my agenda, these days.
So I will proceed accordingly.
Sorry for Al....


Love it... you have just reduced AGW :)
Quoting calusakat:

I guess the next thing that needs to be done is for you to explain the following statement in your post #361

"LONDON, UK, March 31, 2010 (ENS) - An investigation into leaked emails by British climate scientists that appeared to indicate a conspiracy to manipulate data to bolster a case for global warming has cleared the scientists of wrongdoing."

Notice that they used the word 'leaked', not me.

BTW - ENS stands for Environment News Service and also note that just a few paragraphs further into that same article was this statement.

"The committee does call for the climate science community to become more transparent by publishing raw data and detailed methodologies.

Committee Chair Phil Willis MP said, "What this inquiry revealed was that climate scientists need to take steps to make available all the data that support their work and full methodological workings, including their computer codes. Had both been available, many of the problems at CRU could have been avoided."

Sound familiar??




calusakat , don't argue with him. I think he has a lobotomy.

Evenin Trauma
They look like Mr Bill. OHHH NOOO!
Quoting pottery:

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$

What better reason than saving money? :-)

Quoting AEKDB1990:


Not me. And you can blather all you want. But you have no evidence.

Prove to me you're not SSI.

(regardless of who SSI was and whatever he was banned for I admire him for getting under your skin. Which by your obsession with him he obviously did.)

Go troll someone else CaneVet. Your accusations without evidence have no place on Dr. Master's blog. If you were really convinced, you'd write to admin. Not start drama here.


Wow, I thought you were signing off, quite a while ago. Odd that you continue to comment. If I could guffaw any louder, I'd wake my neighbors.
574. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280239
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Complete TWO...


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
calusakat , don't argue with him. I think he has a lobotomy.

Evenin Trauma


How you doin Kerry!!
Quoting pottery:

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$


Yeah, it helps, but everyone please try to recycle them if possible. The amount of mercury in one is very small, but it does add up.
Hohm sweet hohm

Actually, if Nea wants, he can WU e-mail me and I will give him my address so he can verify.

I'm about 1700 dollars (pre-solar... efficiency before solar always!) ahead of most of my neighbors. Pays out in 11 years what I did.

50% reduction in carbon. Simply by MAKING MONEY.

Can we get bipartisan support on this?

Been a good AGW discussion tonight :)

Quoting Quadrantid:


My parents live on the Isle of Skye, on the north-west coast of Scotland (they are about 57.3 degrees north). Despite their latitude, they rarely get snow, and in fact, I believe there a palm trees growing just down the coast from them.

The climate on Skye (aside from being wet/windy most of the time) is remarkably clement/temperate for somewhere at that latitude - the result of the gulf stream ploughing into the UK.

The fact it is so clement there is not evidence of global warming. The fact that the palm trees were planted (if I recall correctly) in the 1800s is not evidence that Skye was warmer in the past, or that the 1800s were as warm as now.

Skye is just a small part of the global climate. It's an unusual part, and the effects of any putative climate change there will not be the same, necessarily, as the effects elsewhere. Similarly, the past history of Skye's climate, while interesting, are just a tiny part of the overall picture of global climate.

Now why have I gone off topic to such a degree? Well, I don't know much about Greenland - but as far as I remember, the areas that were inhabited in the past are a thin strip around the edge. A small area, therefore. It doesn't seem beyond the bounds of possibility that such a small area may well have had a different climate in the past (and may even have been more clement, e.g. during the medieval warm period) than it is today. Most climate models actually show areas that will behave unusually if the planet warms.

---------------

Because I know I waffle on and get distracted, here's a TLDR summary :D

Climate data from small areas (whether it shows warming or cooling, or anything unusual) can't be used as an argument for, or against, global warming. It's the global changes that are important. It is quite possible that Greenland was warmer, and more habitable, 1000 years ago, than it is today. It's equally possible (say), that Skye was colder, and less habitable at that time. Both of them are small areas, single data points on a global picture. So one place being a bit warmer in the past (which is under debate) does not bring AGW arguments tumbling down, no more than the fact that palm trees can survive in north-west Scotland suggests that the 1800s were warmer than today.

Hope that makes some sense ;) Just bothers me intensely when people on either side of the GW argument use single small cases to argue the other side has to be wrong! We have to look at the big picture, not just focus on localised oddities - however interesting they are.


Yeah, im not saying that it proves the whole AGW thing wrong, its just something that makes you think, how much we don't know how the changing climate will effect the globe. Which undersea currents will switch to where. No one really knows how it will effect storms. People say what the models show, well models can't correctly say whats going to happen in a week, why would you ever trust them for what will happen in a hundred years?? Its just when people don't present the facts that represent both sides of the argument, and scoff at people who disagree, or look down their nose at people, that I get upset.
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Not me. And you can blather all you want. But you have no evidence.

Prove to me you're not SSI.

(regardless of who SSI was and whatever he was banned for I admire him for getting under your skin. Which by your obsession with him he obviously did.)

Go troll someone else CaneVet. Your accusations without evidence have no place on Dr. Master's blog. If you were really convinced, you'd write to admin. Not start drama here.


Canevet is cool, youve been here 10 days and act like you know people. Relax.
Quoting calusakat:

I guess the next thing that needs to be done is for you to explain the following statement in your post #361

"LONDON, UK, March 31, 2010 (ENS) - An investigation into leaked emails by British climate scientists that appeared to indicate a conspiracy to manipulate data to bolster a case for global warming has cleared the scientists of wrongdoing."

Notice that they used the word 'leaked', not me.

BTW - ENS stands for Environment News Service and also note that just a few paragraphs further into that same article was this statement.

"The committee does call for the climate science community to become more transparent by publishing raw data and detailed methodologies.

Committee Chair Phil Willis MP said, "What this inquiry revealed was that climate scientists need to take steps to make available all the data that support their work and full methodological workings, including their computer codes. Had both been available, many of the problems at CRU could have been avoided."

Sound familiar??






I do remember hearing about this, and it was leaked. (and I think that AGW exists, btw)
People who accuse me of being someone else are not cool, VAbeachhurricanes. And I notice some people who've been here for 5 years or more, and he's been here 3 months. Not much longer than me.

I act like I know people because lionrock and a whole bunch of other handles started emailing me within a few hours of my joining here.
Just found this in that same article.

"The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change sceptics," said the committee in its report. "

If it smells like a something rotting, most likely it is something rotting.

583. 7544
jajajajajajaj we have 3 invest here peeps and one on the way to be a ts and still jajajajaj
Quoting JLPR2:


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.
im surprised that they didnt put the % higher, like 60 or 70%, so by morning, if this trend continues we will see shary tomorrow.
For the poll, I think, at the next update:

90L: Shary
91L: 40%
92L: 30%
586. JRRP
Inefficient water heaters

For Pottery:

You and I love to make money. I am into alternative energy (I am an energy geek... there already was an energy geek on WU so I had to use moron!).

How sweet it is... busted.

These are conventional water heaters, not solar.

They don't work in the southern US since we keep our hot water outside of the conditioned area.

Now, in Germany, think of the consequences... solar hot water, inefficiently done... heats the house. So what is the problem?

The problem comes when you use the product in the southern US.

Not only does the solar hot water do nothing for you in the summer (the garage is already at 110 F), but in the winter there is very little sun (since we are pumping moisture to fuel...

Nea...

Likely AGW caused blizzards (no proof)...

) so....

They increase your carbon footprint the backup owing to the inefficiency.

Yup...

And they were a government favorite. Literally top German hot water solar company.

Busted.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, im not saying that it proves the whole AGW thing wrong, its just something that makes you think, how much we don't know how the changing climate will effect the globe. Which undersea currents will switch to where. No one really knows how it will effect storms. People say what the models show, well models can't correctly say whats going to happen in a week, why would you ever trust them for what will happen in a hundred years?? Its just when people don't present the facts that represent both sides of the argument, and scoff at people who disagree, or look down their nose at people, that I get upset.


What facts do you have that say that humans aren't the primary cause of the current warming?

Predicting climate is considerably easier than predicting weather. Climate is general; weather specific.
Hackers steal electronic data from top climate research center

And Calusakat have you apologized for slandering climate scientists by lying and saying they altered data to fit personal views when every review of the Climate Research Unit said otherwise?
Quoting AEKDB1990:
People who accuse me of being someone else are not cool, VAbeachhurricanes. And I notice some people who've been here for 5 years or more, and he's been here 3 months. Not much longer than me.

I act like I know people because lionrock and a whole bunch of other handles started emailing me within a few hours of my joining here.


mail
Quoting JLPR2:


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.


And 19th and 20th :P

I believe all of the invests will develop in the long-run...

1) 90L

2.)20%-er

3. 30-er
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Canevet is cool, youve been here 10 days and act like you know people. Relax.


I thank you! He acts like that because he's circumventing a perma-ban. SSI, we all see ya.
Quoting calusakat:
Just found this in that same article.

"The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change sceptics," said the committee in its report. "

If it smells like a something rotting, most likely it is something rotting.



"Appear to show?"
"May have been deleted?"

That's powerful stuff! [/sarcasm]

High Wind Shear 40kts 50kts ahead of 91L. That's good !!!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
havent been able to keep up with my blog lately but i do want to make my first poll since richard died off.LOL(which was about 1 day or two ago).

POLL TIME:
In the long run, do you think all of these invest will form?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) TWO OF THEM
(D) ONLY ONE OF THEM
(E) I DON'T KNOW

In the next TWO 90L have an...
(A) 50% OR LOWER
(B) 60%
(C) 70%
(D) 80% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 91L have an...
(A) 30% OR LOWER
(B) 40%
(C) 50%
(D) 60%
(E) 70% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 92L have an...
(A) 20% OR LOWER
(B) 30%
(C) 40%
(D) 50%
(E) 60% OR MORE

I think A or C, B, B, and A
A,A,B,B
Quoting Birthmark:


What facts do you have that say that humans aren't the primary cause of the current warming?

Predicting climate is considerably easier than predicting weather. Climate is general; weather specific.


Only proof that this planet has been much warmer before. Its hard to prove something is not affecting something.
Hope this won't be real


Quoting AEKDB1990:
People who accuse me of being someone else are not cool, VAbeachhurricanes. And I notice some people who've been here for 5 years or more, and he's been here 3 months. Not much longer than me.

I act like I know people because lionrock and a whole bunch of other handles started emailing me within a few hours of my joining here.
I agree with VAbeachhurricanes.
Your're always accusing people of something. Just like SSI. Chill!
599. 7544
92l as of 11pm moving west
Is there any such thing as a landurricane? 'Cause that picture there certainly suggests it.
Actually, and I'm probably thinking this may freak people out, but that satellite imagery, and just what the system brought to a widespread area (extreme winter and summer storms alike) really makes me think that The Day After Tomorrow was indeed based on truth, and not just a terrible movie.

And, I think I read in an article that, after the 2005 season, if any season manages to get a named storm after W, then they start back at the letter A from the next year's list. So, if we make it to Walter and beyond - the next name would then be Arlene.

I'm thinking we'll at least see Shary by tomorrow afternon - the location of those three Invests looks like a very disgruntled face on the NHC homepage.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Hope this won't be real




I don't think so. 91L will be destroyed by 40kts and 50kts wind shear ahead.
Quoting AEKDB1990:
Hackers steal electronic data from top climate research center

And Calusakat have you apologized for slandering climate scientists by lying and saying they altered data to fit personal views when every review of the Climate Research Unit said otherwise?

Environment News Service says the e-mails were 'leaked', they should know. I didn't write the article.

And using your thought processes...let me guess...destroying evidence is not the same as altering it?

You funny.

Have a nice evening, its getting late, its been fun toying with you, AEKDB1990.

Night all.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I don't think so. 91L will be destroyed by 40kts and 50kts wind shear ahead.


Thanks, for info....I just came back from the Metro area.... and I find this in this Cyclogenesis model....
Quoting calusakat:

Environment News Service says the e-mails were 'leaked', they should know. I didn't write the article.

And using your thought processes...let me guess...destroying evidence is not the same as altering it?

You funny.

Have a nice evening, its getting late, its been fun toying with you, AEKDB1990.

Night all.



You're the one who lied over and over that scientists were altering and distorting data when they were cleared of doing so. I've enjoyed exposing your dishonesty for all to see :)
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Is there any such thing as a landurricane? 'Cause that picture there certainly suggests it.
Actually, and I'm probably thinking this may freak people out, but that satellite imagery, and just what the system brought to a widespread area (extreme winter and summer storms alike) really makes me think that The Day After Tomorrow was indeed based on truth, and not just a terrible movie.

And, I think I read in an article that, after the 2005 season, if any season manages to get a named storm after W, then they start back at the letter A from the next year's list. So, if we make it to Walter and beyond - the next name would then be Arlene.

I'm thinking we'll at least see Shary by tomorrow afternon - the location of those three Invests looks like a very disgruntled face on the NHC homepage.
Lol.I was thinking about that movie to when I heard what this storm did.The size,and all of the extreame weather happening with it.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Hope this won't be real


The one near south america may need to be watched over the next few days.could we see a strong system?.We'll find out soon......
Local weatherman made good point saying total number of storms predicted may be right this
year of 23 or so, but until they can predict where they are going to hit these numbers pre season are useless. Example this year active but not for any of the US coastline. What do some of you think about that.
609. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


And 19th and 20th :P

I believe all of the invests will develop in the long-run...

1) 90L

2.)20%-er

3. 30-er


That would catapult 2010 to a hyperactive season and leave me jawless. XD
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Only proof that this planet has been much warmer before. Its hard to prove something is not affecting something.


What difference does it make if the planet was warmer in the past? How many technological societies, utterly dependent upon industrial agriculture, were there in those previous warm times?

(The major problem with the current warming is the *rate* of warming, not just the warming itself. Though the warming is still a big problem.)

Your second point is the result of my inelegant question. I apologize. Let me ask a bit more correctly. If human activity is NOT the primary cause of the current warming, then what IS the cause; and what scientific evidence is there to support that hypothesis?
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Is there any such thing as a landurricane? 'Cause that picture there certainly suggests it.
Actually, and I'm probably thinking this may freak people out, but that satellite imagery, and just what the system brought to a widespread area (extreme winter and summer storms alike) really makes me think that The Day After Tomorrow was indeed based on truth, and not just a terrible movie.

And, I think I read in an article that, after the 2005 season, if any season manages to get a named storm after W, then they start back at the letter A from the next year's list. So, if we make it to Walter and beyond - the next name would then be Arlene.

I'm thinking we'll at least see Shary by tomorrow afternon - the location of those three Invests looks like a very disgruntled face on the NHC homepage.


Nah, they still use the greek letters.
Quoting calusakat:

Environment News Service says the e-mails were 'leaked', they should know. I didn't write the article.

And using your thought processes...let me guess...destroying evidence is not the same as altering it?

You funny.

Have a nice evening, its getting late, its been fun toying with you, AEKDB1990.

Night all.



The e-mails were stolen. Then they were leaked, whether by the hackers or others is unclear.
614. 7544
91L is really trying to from to a ts and fast may be the one to watch imo
Hello Orc!
Just when I thought I could go to bed, you come along with those nasty little squiggly lines over my house.
Your timing is dreadful.
Quoting 7544:
91L is really trying to from to a ts and fast may be the one to watch imo


High Wind Shear ahead !!!
Quoting calusakat:

Environment News Service says the e-mails were 'leaked', they should know. I didn't write the article.

And using your thought processes...let me guess...destroying evidence is not the same as altering it?

You funny.

Have a nice evening, its getting late, its been fun toying with you, AEKDB1990.

Night all.



As best I remember (was living in the UK when all this broke) - the scientists were hacked, and vast swathes of data were taken, including the e-mails. Certain sections of the stolen data were then leaked by the people who stole it - preferentially releasing things which made it look like a bit conspiracy.

So you're both right, in a way -- the data were stolen by hackers, and they were leaked.

However, the stuff wasn't leaked by the scientists -- that's the point over which you're both arguing (and hopefully the point I've cleared up!).

Happy to help!
Quoting calusakat:
Just found this in that same article.

"The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change sceptics," said the committee in its report. "

If it smells like a something rotting, most likely it is something rotting.



Morons like myself are rejoicing tonight as the top solar hot water company in Germany has been busted....

For false efficiency claims concerning their backup.

I am familiar with the problems in the statistics in the work in question and the Lord Oxbowdown (or whatever... like Lord CooKooFace in Madeline) report is quite clear on these deficiencies.

Climatologists are not statisticians and the statistical arguments are, well, to quote, Mark Twain, "There are lies, damn lies, and statitics".

Now, how much energy do you waste in an inefficient house? Even a moron like myself is wasting 50 dollars a year (circa 1980 ceiling fans).

If I can find some for less than 41 dollars.... PAYOUT
Quoting Birthmark:


What difference does it make if the planet was warmer in the past? How many technological societies, utterly dependent upon industrial agriculture, were there in those previous warm times?

(The major problem with the current warming is the *rate* of warming, not just the warming itself. Though the warming is still a big problem.)

Your second point is the result of my inelegant question. I apologize. Let me ask a bit more correctly. If human activity is NOT the primary cause of the current warming, then what IS the cause; and what scientific evidence is there to support that hypothesis?


First it makes the point that it could just be a natural cycle like it was in the previous years without the industrial technologies.
Second, I am not knowledgeable enough of science of the natural cycles to really get in to it, its just that is what I believe. Until there is concrete evidence that it is humans fault. Another thing I know you didn't ask, is Ive never littered, I always recycle, Ive cleaned up parks. I am in no way for destroying the earth and I think we should do everything to clean and protect it. It just bothers me that people think that if you don't believe in AGW then you don't care about the planet.
620. JLPR2
Quoting 7544:
91L is really trying to from to a ts and fast may be the one to watch imo


Needs to organize more, 91L is currently the weakest of the three invests.(structurally)
92L's 850mb vort strengthened nicely in between updates.
Regarding palm trees in Greenland:

I remember reading a while ago that there was a theory that the poles of the Earth switch and move every x thousand years. A bit fuzzier recollection is that when this happens, where the "equator" ends up is dependent on where things stop after the shift. According to this line of thought, Greenland could have ended up on the equator and no Global Warming would have been required to grow palm trees there. I have no references for this, but seemed like a great time to stir the pot...

Back on topic, 3 AOIs this late in Oct... could be an interesting November
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


First it makes the point that it could just be a natural cycle like it was in the previous years without the industrial technologies.
Second, I am not knowledgeable enough of science of the natural cycles to really get in to it, its just that is what I believe. Until there is concrete evidence that it is humans fault. Another thing I know you didn't ask, is Ive never littered, I always recycle, Ive cleaned up parks. I am in no way for destroying the earth and I think we should do everything to clean and protect it. It just bothers me that people think that if you don't believe in AGW then you don't care about the planet.


With regards to the point on natural cycles -- I can say for definite that the changes we're seeing now are happening too quickly to be linked to the Milankovic cycles (the variations in the tilt of our axis, the precession of said axis, the precession of our orbit, and the variation in that orbit's eccentricity and inclination).

Recent research has show that the argument that the observed warming is linked to variations in the Sun's output is not considered valid any more - in fact, if climate was being forced by changes in the Sun's output, the planet would have cooled in recent years, rather than warmed.

Endogenic, rather than exogenic, cycles -- I'm not qualified to comment :) But I'm certain that nothing astronomical is driving the observed climate change :)
Quoting pottery:
Hello Orc!
Just when I thought I could go to bed, you come along with those nasty little squiggly lines over my house.
Your timing is dreadful.

I aim to please buds.. you asked for showers
Quoting naviguesser:
Regarding palm trees in Greenland:

I remember reading a while ago that there was a theory that the poles of the Earth switch and move every x thousand years. A bit fuzzier recollection is that when this happens, where the "equator" ends up is dependent on where things stop after the shift. According to this line of thought, Greenland could have ended up on the equator and no Global Warming would have been required to grow palm trees there. I have no references for this, but seemed like a great time to stir the pot...

Back on topic, 3 AOIs this late in Oct... could be an interesting November


Equator doesn't move... it's related to the geographic poles, which don't change. You're thinking of a magnetic pole, which does shift, and the magnetic equator is in flux for a while, but the geographic poles never change. And this occurs on a factor of million years, not thousand. So Greenland's been up there for a while. The reason they found those trees is because they were petrified, or fossilized. It takes millions of years for something to fossilize. In that time, the tectonic plate that Greenland was on moved so that it's much closer to the north pole.
Quoting sunlinepr:
I think that second one is coming down to the SE.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I don't think so. 91L will be destroyed by 40kts and 50kts wind shear ahead.
Stranger things have happened this season....
For those of you debating GW, why not discuss the effect that global deforestation has, or will have on earth's climatology? Why not consider facts like: "There are over 600 million motor vehicles in the world today. If present trends continue, the number of cars on Earth will double in the next 30 years."

Why not consider Sea contamination, and many other facts that can be measured, due to mankind's intervention?
What effect will all this have in earth's climatology (If you believe there is any)


That way you can have a more quantitative, scientific approach in your discussion???.....

Amazon Deforestation (Not considering other global deforestation areas)





NASA 2019s Landsat 5 satellite captured the left-side image on July 19, 1986, while NASA 2019s Landsat 7 satellite captured the right-side image on December 11, 2001. Densely forested areas are deep green.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


First it makes the point that it could just be a natural cycle like it was in the previous years without the industrial technologies.


No offense, but that doesn't mean anything. I can just as well say it *could* be billions of invisible gremlins with billions of invisible cigarette lighters. It's possible, maybe, but useless. Unless you (or someone) can clarify what it is that is cycling and what evidence supports that as the cause, I'm afraid that that is no more useful as an explanation than my gremlins.


Second, I am not knowledgeable enough of science of the natural cycles to really get in to it, its just that is what I believe. Until there is concrete evidence that it is humans fault.


There is indeed concrete evidence. Atmospheric CO2 has increased by >30%. The ratio of C13/C12 has been decreasing. That is indicative of fossil fuel.

Another thing I know you didn't ask, is Ive never littered, I always recycle, Ive cleaned up parks. I am in no way for destroying the earth and I think we should do everything to clean and protect it. It just bothers me that people think that if you don't believe in AGW then you don't care about the planet.


I agree. That is unfounded. However, if they amend it to say if you don't believe in AGW, then you don't believe in science, I think that it's more accurate.
Quoting naviguesser:
Regarding palm trees in Greenland:

I remember reading a while ago that there was a theory that the poles of the Earth switch and move every x thousand years. A bit fuzzier recollection is that when this happens, where the "equator" ends up is dependent on where things stop after the shift. According to this line of thought, Greenland could have ended up on the equator and no Global Warming would have been required to grow palm trees there. I have no references for this, but seemed like a great time to stir the pot...

Back on topic, 3 AOIs this late in Oct... could be an interesting November


Good night.

I think if you look at agreement in the community we have basically folks that like to make money doing green stuff that, well, makes money, irrespective of whether it is really green.

The hard core denier mercenaries (Nea... they are to be pitied... they don't want to make money) are kind of the VLO and XSO of the world (Nea... Koch does not have a symbol).

Can we stop debating this and make money?

I do automatically reject all reconstructions that deny the MWP.

I also accept the Fourier experiment and the conclusions of the IPCC (which apparently make me a "denier" in some circles).

But goodnight....

Tomorrow I think we will see a new blog without any AGW content
Quoting Quadrantid:


With regards to the point on natural cycles -- I can say for definite that the changes we're seeing now are happening too quickly to be linked to the Milankovic cycles (the variations in the tilt of our axis, the precession of said axis, the precession of our orbit, and the variation in that orbit's eccentricity and inclination).

Recent research has show that the argument that the observed warming is linked to variations in the Sun's output is not considered valid any more - in fact, if climate was being forced by changes in the Sun's output, the planet would have cooled in recent years, rather than warmed.

Endogenic, rather than exogenic, cycles -- I'm not qualified to comment :) But I'm certain that nothing astronomical is driving the observed climate change :)


Since we havent been through a cycle as a human race, im not quite sure we can definitely say that it is happening too quickly we just don't know that for sure. Another thing is that its funny how we are so worried about the warming, yet I believe one volcano eruption can take us back to below average temperatures in the blink of an eye. There are so many things that can happen that im not sure anyone really can grasp all the different variables that have occurred on this planet to get the climate to where it is, and what variables in the future can possibly do.

633. ackee
Looks like 91L going to run into strong shears in the carrbean or proably run into south america not too concern
Quoting Orcasystems:

I aim to please buds.. you asked for showers

True!
But not this weekend.
Due to the very nice weather recently, we will be attending a Birthday Party this weekend, Filled with Debauchery, on a small island, off the coast.
Rainy days and gloomy skies are not required....
Good evening, all... wow Doc Masters shows up at the NHC and all hell breaks loose!
Sure musst be neat time to be there with something going on. I'd imagine they have some pretty cool screens going everywhere.
Guess we'll soon find out!


Cosmic, mail.

Thanks for the lack of a strike so far in FL.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Since we havent been through a cycle as a human race, im not quite sure we can definitely say that it is happening too quickly we just don't know that for sure. Another thing is that its funny how we are so worried about the warming, yet I believe one volcano eruption can take us back to below average temperatures in the blink of an eye. There are so many things that can happen that im not sure anyone really can grasp all the different variables that have occurred on this planet to get the climate to where it is, and what variables in the future can possibly do.


The Volcanoes will save us....
Good to know that.

You are becoming obscure, you know.
638. JRRP
cargen sus RIPs
639. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
cargen sus RIPs


Todavía. XD
Quoting ackee:
Looks like 91L going to run into strong shears in the carrbean or proably run into south america not too concern

Dont try that!!
I am trying to send it North, LOL!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Since we havent been through a cycle as a human race, im not quite sure we can definitely say that it is happening too quickly we just don't know that for sure. Another thing is that its funny how we are so worried about the warming, yet I believe one volcano eruption can take us back to below average temperatures in the blink of an eye. There are so many things that can happen that im not sure anyone really can grasp all the different variables that have occurred on this planet to get the climate to where it is, and what variables in the future can possibly do.



When it comes to the variations due to Milankovic cycles, we do know that for sure :) We know the scale of the cycles, and how fast all the variables change (hell, all bar the variation in our axial tilt drop out in every single n-body integration I run). Also, the rate and scale of their effect has been well matched to data from ice cores - it's the Milankovic cycles that have been the key driver to the recent series of ice ages and interglacial periods.

The current warming trend, and the rate at which it is happening, are totally incompatible with the Milankovic cycles being the cause. Returning to an analogy I used earlier -- if the idea that those cycles were the cause of the observed climate change was the theory of gravity, then we've already had plenty of apples the refused to fall. The data don't fit the theory - so the theory is wrong -- Milankovic cycles are not the cause of the observed behaviour.

The same is true of solar activity, afaik -- recent studies have shown that the theory linking variations in recent Solar activity with the observed changes in the climate does not fit with the data -- so it isn't a working theory to explain the changes. That doesn't, of course, mean that another theory explaining the change in terms of Solar activity couldn't be put together - but it would quickly fall foul of the same data, unless it was something very radical and different.

As more and more data come in, and more and more observations are made, the non-human theories on the cause of GW are falling over. That doesn't mean observations won't be made in the next year/decade that do the same for man-made GW, but the only theory that explains the results that are coming in all the time with any degree of accuracy is that climate change is directly related to human activity.

While it is possible to construct ever more complicated explanations for how this isn't our fault, there has to come a point when Occum's razor comes into play. The simplest theory that successfully explains the observations is man-made global warming, in my opinion -- and so I'm of the opinion we should be doing what we can to counter it.

That's before we consider that investing in R+D and new technologies will, in the long run, benefit everyone, creating new jobs, and boosting the overall standard of living regardless of whether GW turns out to be man-made, natural, or non-existant.

I think we can all agree that pumping more money into science would be a good thing (and, as someone who relies on that funding to make a living, I'm doubly in favour ;)).
Quoting pottery:

The Volcanoes will save us....
Good to know that.

You are becoming obscure, you know.


doing his, and studying for a physics exam tomorrow, sorry.
643. ackee
I THINK 90L will be shary soon and 92L TD or Tomas dontTHink 91L will devlop further guess we see
Quoting pottery:

True!
But not this weekend.
Due to the very nice weather recently, we will be attending a Birthday Party this weekend, Filled with Debauchery, on a small island, off the coast.
Rainy days and gloomy skies are not required....


Sure.. gimme rain... umm oh... can you hold it off a day or two.
Quoting Quadrantid:


When it comes to the variations due to Milankovic cycles, we do know that for sure :) We know the scale of the cycles, and how fast all the variables change (hell, all bar the variation in our axial tilt drop out in every single n-body integration I run). Also, the rate and scale of their effect has been well matched to data from ice cores - it's the Milankovic cycles that have been the key driver to the recent series of ice ages and interglacial periods.

The current warming trend, and the rate at which it is happening, are totally incompatible with the Milankovic cycles being the cause. Returning to an analogy I used earlier -- if the idea that those cycles were the cause of the observed climate change was the theory of gravity, then we've already had plenty of apples the refused to fall. The data don't fit the theory - so the theory is wrong -- Milankovic cycles are not the cause of the observed behaviour.

The same is true of solar activity, afaik -- recent studies have shown that the theory linking variations in recent Solar activity with the observed changes in the climate does not fit with the data -- so it isn't a working theory to explain the changes. That doesn't, of course, mean that another theory explaining the change in terms of Solar activity couldn't be put together - but it would quickly fall foul of the same data, unless it was something very radical and different.

As more and more data come in, and more and more observations are made, the non-human theories on the cause of GW are falling over. That doesn't mean observations won't be made in the next year/decade that do the same for man-made GW, but the only theory that explains the results that are coming in all the time with any degree of accuracy is that climate change is directly related to human activity.

While it is possible to construct ever more complicated explanations for how this isn't our fault, there has to come a point when Occum's razor comes into play. The simplest theory that successfully explains the observations is man-made global warming, in my opinion -- and so I'm of the opinion we should be doing what we can to counter it.

That's before we consider that investing in R+D and new technologies will, in the long run, benefit everyone, creating new jobs, and boosting the overall standard of living regardless of whether GW turns out to be man-made, natural, or non-existant.

I think we can all agree that pumping more money into science would be a good thing (and, as someone who relies on that funding to make a living, I'm doubly in favour ;)).


Right now im, a physics, and meteorology double major so that would be amazing. Im hoping to do a research project with NASA soon, and if it turns out it is AGW ill be the first to say I was wrong, and will be all for taking drastic measures.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Wow. Again, please tell me where I lied, or where I've attempted to mislead. I merely pointed out the straight, unadulterated facts, which are that record highs have outnumbered record lows by a wide margin over the past 24 hours. (Had you read with an objective eye, you might have noticed that I mentioned the record lows; it's not my fault that they have been so badly outnumbered for the past seven months or so.)

(While we're at it, record highs have outnumbered record lows by to 830 to 102 over the past week. Toasty...)


Good thing there is global warming or we'd have more that 102 record lows.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


doing his, and studying for a physics exam tomorrow, sorry.

Good luck with the Exam, hope it goes well.
Quoting pottery:

Good luck with the Exam, hope it goes well.


should be fine, thanks pottery :)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Since we havent been through a cycle as a human race, im not quite sure we can definitely say that it is happening too quickly we just don't know that for sure. Another thing is that its funny how we are so worried about the warming, yet I believe one volcano eruption can take us back to below average temperatures in the blink of an eye. There are so many things that can happen that im not sure anyone really can grasp all the different variables that have occurred on this planet to get the climate to where it is, and what variables in the future can possibly do.



+10000
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure.. gimme rain... umm oh... can you hold it off a day or two.

It's all my wife's fault!
You KNOW I would never flipflop like that.
(this is just between us, OK?)
Maybe we should get rid of the CO reduction of catalytic converters?

2 CO O2 = 2 CO2

Catalytic converters create CO2, using up O2 in the process and more O2 as a bonus.

CO is not a greenhouse gas that I am aware of.

Zero CO2 emission vehicles at relatively low cost and in a short period of time.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Right now im, a physics, and meteorology double major so that would be amazing. Im hoping to do a research project with NASA soon, and if it turns out it is AGW ill be the first to say I was wrong, and will be all for taking drastic measures.


Sounds a good plan :) It's a pretty good time to be doing an undergrad or postgrad degree -- the huge cuts in science funding have made postdoc life obscenely competative -- but hopefully the upswing will come fairly soon (couple of years) -- then there'll be loads of new jobs/phd places for people (as the squeeze on postdocs now means there'll be few people around of my generation competing for that money).

The net result for me is that I have to publish, publish, publish... which I guess means I should really be working at the moment, rather than bouncing ideas around here. Such is life!

Good luck with the exam :D
Quoting Seastep:
Maybe we should get rid of the CO reduction of catalytic converters?

2 CO + O2 = 2 CO2

Catalytic converters doubles the CO2 output of internal combustion engines.

We could cut CO2 emissions in half tomorrow. And get more O2 in the atmosphere to boot.

I did not know that.....
never thought about it, frankly.
What are catalytic converters for. then?


Science is not where budgets should be cut. My 2 cents.
Which one is more active???

Anyway, it's tomorrow here already.
See what the Weather brings, with the sunrise...
Stay safe, all.
Quoting Quadrantid:


Sounds a good plan :) It's a pretty good time to be doing an undergrad or postgrad degree -- the huge cuts in science funding have made postdoc life obscenely competative -- but hopefully the upswing will come fairly soon (couple of years) -- then there'll be loads of new jobs/phd places for people (as the squeeze on postdocs now means there'll be few people around of my generation competing for that money).

The net result for me is that I have to publish, publish, publish... which I guess means I should really be working at the moment, rather than bouncing ideas around here. Such is life!

Good luck with the exam :D


Thank you very much! You aren't around here often, you should more, very good to debate with, learned a lot :)
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Science is not where budgets should be cut. My 2 cents.


I'm with you on that :) Problem is that it is an easy/quiet cut... if you cut military spending, the conservative politicians will kick up a fuss, and everyone will panic that it means you'll get invaded or there'll be huge job losses. If you cut benefits, then people will complain about children being put into poverty. If you put taxes up, people complain...

If you cut science budgets, people don't really notice (apart from the scientists). Particularly for the kind of work I do (astronomy) -- there are no direct, immediate, obvious benefits to the general public, so they don't really care if, for example, the UK is no longer able to use the Gemini telescopes.

The media, and much of the general public, really struggle to think much into the future -- I've actually had people tell me "Well, yes, ok, science gave us all the cool/useful things I enjoy today. But what will it give me tomorrow? You can't say, 'cos it hasn't been invented yet? Well, we clearly don't need it then! I'd rather have lower taxes, than have some ivory-tower scientist looking into something irrelevent, thankyou!". Or at least, words to that effect...

nite all, today 3 invests, tomorrow/today shary and 2 invests.
basically, today we will be saying and then there was two.
Quoting Quadrantid:


I'm with you on that :) Problem is that it is an easy/quiet cut... if you cut military spending, the conservative politicians will kick up a fuss, and everyone will panic that it means you'll get invaded or there'll be huge job losses. If you cut benefits, then people will complain about children being put into poverty. If you put taxes up, people complain...

If you cut science budgets, people don't really notice (apart from the scientists). Particularly for the kind of work I do (astronomy) -- there are no direct, immediate, obvious benefits to the general public, so they don't really care if, for example, the UK is no longer able to use the Gemini telescopes.

The media, and much of the general public, really struggle to think much into the future -- I've actually had people tell me "Well, yes, ok, science gave us all the cool/useful things I enjoy today. But what will it give me tomorrow? You can't say, 'cos it hasn't been invented yet? Well, we clearly don't need it then! I'd rather have lower taxes, than have some ivory-tower scientist looking into something irrelevent, thankyou!". Or at least, words to that effect...



do you work for nasa? or a private firm?
Quoting pottery:

I did not know that.....
never thought about it, frankly.
What are catalytic converters for. then?


They reduce NOx and CO. "Smog" basically.

I, personally thank those that got them mandated.

Introduced only in 1975.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thank you very much! You aren't around here often, you should more, very good to debate with, learned a lot :)


I've lurked for a long time, but never really joined in 'till lately :) It's good fun to have a nice debate -- I've learned so much about climate and weather from this blog, it's nice to be able to chip in when things (occasionally) drift to my kind of work :) Has been a fun afternoon discussing things with you all, while I wait for my new boss to finish building my new work computer... :D
Quoting Skyepony:
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.

to me it's more like 3 tropical storms likely during halloween
invest 91L
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


do you work for nasa? or a private firm?


Am working at the University of New South Wales, in Australia, at the moment -- moved out here just over a month ago from the UK. Academic all the way -- so my post is government, rather than private, funded... but you don't get much in the way of private funding for Solar system dynamics and planet search work :)
Quoting Seastep:
Maybe we should get rid of the CO reduction of catalytic converters?

2 CO O2 = 2 CO2

Catalytic converters create CO2, using up O2 in the process and more O2 as a bonus.

CO is not a greenhouse gas that I am aware of.

Zero CO2 emission vehicles at relatively low cost and in a short period of time.
that will be worst.... CO is poisonous to humans.... Imagine a 18 million pop. city with such emissions....
667 TROPICAL LOW 1006 INVEST 91L
PotteryDude, you make me laugh, is a good thing. Stay true and put on clean underwear before the weekend.

Orca, your post are always valued, for weather inisight as well as humor.

Were is K'Man? I'm on the coast of FPH, his insight is ALWAYS valued.

JFlorida, DestinJeff may or MAY not have other login nics here, - I am NOT one of them.



On the GW debate - the human species is arrogant enough to think they are are a real player on the earths natural cycles, - and also greedy enough to make money off of being able to SCREEM about it in the media. God Bless Al Gore's Truth about making money.


Just another lurkers drive by post.
Quoting Quadrantid:


I'm with you on that :) Problem is that it is an easy/quiet cut... if you cut military spending, the conservative politicians will kick up a fuss, and everyone will panic that it means you'll get invaded or there'll be huge job losses. If you cut benefits, then people will complain about children being put into poverty. If you put taxes up, people complain...

If you cut science budgets, people don't really notice (apart from the scientists). Particularly for the kind of work I do (astronomy) -- there are no direct, immediate, obvious benefits to the general public, so they don't really care if, for example, the UK is no longer able to use the Gemini telescopes.

The media, and much of the general public, really struggle to think much into the future -- I've actually had people tell me "Well, yes, ok, science gave us all the cool/useful things I enjoy today. But what will it give me tomorrow? You can't say, 'cos it hasn't been invented yet? Well, we clearly don't need it then! I'd rather have lower taxes, than have some ivory-tower scientist looking into something irrelevent, thankyou!". Or at least, words to that effect...


Sad but true. Esoteric breakthroughs that take a while to impact the populace, are difficult to fund.
WOW!!!!!TROPICAL LOW 1006MB LOW
Aren't you clever Ms. Skyepony.
Halloween is my birthday.
Trick or Treat.
675. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.


omg jajajajaja
Quoting Quadrantid:


Am working at the University of New South Wales, in Australia, at the moment -- moved out here just over a month ago from the UK. Academic all the way -- so my post is government, rather than private, funded... but you don't get much in the way of private funding for Solar system dynamics and planet search work :)


Alright, that sounds so sweet. I remember growing up I knew I either wanted to do Astronomy or Meteorology. Meteorology is just much more faster paced. I hope you find the next earth! make sure you tell the blog first though ;)
Quoting Skyepony:
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.



+100
Quoting capesanblas:
PotteryDude, you make me laugh, is a good thing. Stay true and put on clean underwear before the weekend.

Orca, your post are always valued, for weather inisight as well as humor.

Were is K'Man? I'm on the coast of FPH, his insight is ALWAYS valued.

JFlorida, DestinJeff may or MAY not have other login nics here, - I am NOT one of them.



On the GW debate - the human species is arrogant enough to think they are are a real player on the earths natural cycles, - and also greedy enough to make money off of being able to SCREEM about it in the media. God Bless Al Gore's Truth about making money.


Just another lurkers drive by post.


Drive by anytime. A good night to you.
Quoting Seastep:
Maybe we should get rid of the CO reduction of catalytic converters?

2 CO O2 = 2 CO2

Catalytic converters create CO2, using up O2 in the process and more O2 as a bonus.

CO is not a greenhouse gas that I am aware of.

Zero CO2 emission vehicles at relatively low cost and in a short period of time.


CO or Carbon Monoxide is a very toxic gas, those are made so the air quality is much better.
Quoting traumaboyy:


+100


Hey TB, what it is?
CAT 4 AGAIN!!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey TB, what it is?


Passing well!! How are you this early morning??


Horsemen of the Apocalpse
Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving 90L a 60% of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Another area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles west of 90L is disorganized, and is also being given a 60% chance of developing. I FIX IT!!!

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Alright, that sounds so sweet. I remember growing up I knew I either wanted to do Astronomy or Meteorology. Meteorology is just much more faster paced. I hope you find the next earth! make sure you tell the blog first though ;)


If I hadn't seen the Sky at Night when I was 5 (blame Patrick Moore for me being into Astronomy), I'd've likely tried to get into either Meteorology or Earthquakes/Volcanoes. Fortunately, I found my calling early enough that I could work my way to the job I've got now. It's awesome being able to do your hobby as a job :) Certainly made all the tedious physics I had to learn worthwhile ;)

The beauty of all the exoplanet/habitability stuff is that I can start to dabble and learn about things like tectonics and weather, and justify it as work related, it's perfect :)

Finding an exoEarth will be awesome, though I suspect Keplar has already found some, and are just waiting for more data to confirm/announce them. That's a hunch based on no information whatsoever, aside from knowing, vaguely, what spec Keplar has, and guessing how many exoEarths it could find :D
Quoting traumaboyy:


Passing well!! How are you this early morning??


I concur. Haven't spoken with you in a good bit. Glad to re-up. Some wild weather. Hope you and your's were spared.
Quoting pottery:

I did not know that.....
never thought about it, frankly.
What are catalytic converters for. then?


I actually mis-spoke and corrected. An internal combustion engine emits zero CO2 without a catalytic converter.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


CO or Carbon Monoxide is a very toxic gas, those are made so the air quality is much better.


I agree 100%.
Quoting Skyepony:
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.



Love it!
Quoting Quadrantid:


If I hadn't seen the Sky at Night when I was 5 (blame Patrick Moore for me being into Astronomy), I'd've likely tried to get into either Meteorology or Earthquakes/Volcanoes. Fortunately, I found my calling early enough that I could work my way to the job I've got now. It's awesome being able to do your hobby as a job :) Certainly made all the tedious physics I had to learn worthwhile ;)

The beauty of all the exoplanet/habitability stuff is that I can start to dabble and learn about things like tectonics and weather, and justify it as work related, it's perfect :)

Finding an exoEarth will be awesome, though I suspect Keplar has already found some, and are just waiting for more data to confirm/announce them. That's a hunch based on no information whatsoever, aside from knowing, vaguely, what spec Keplar has, and guessing how many exoEarths it could find :D


Keplar is the one that measures the brightness of stars looking for planets that transit them right?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I concur. Haven't spoken with you in a good bit. Glad to re-up. Some wild weather. Hope you and your's were spared.


Right now I will accept any weather that includes RAIN!!
Quoting sunlinepr:
that will be worst.... CO is poisonous to humans.... Imagine a 18 million pop. city with such emissions....


You're right, it is worse for population centers, imo, but the planet comes first. Not an extremely small percentage of the earth's surface area.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Keplar is the one that measures the brightness of stars looking for planets that transit them right?


Pretty much -- here's the Kepler home page. Dunno why I keep mispelling it :)

Anyways, if there are exoEarths out there, then Kepler should find loads (and likely already has detected some!). I don't think it'll find any close enough to study in any depth, but it'd still be awesome to have it confirmed that they're out there!
Quoting Seastep:


You're right, it is worse for population centers, imo, but the planet comes first. Not an extremely small percentage of the earth's surface area.


Its a poisonous gas, carbon monoxide kills a lot of people now, even with them. anytime you drive down the road youd need to wear a gas mask...
Some rain here in Caguas PR....

Quoting Quadrantid:


Pretty much -- here's the Kepler home page. Dunno why I keep mispelling it :)

Anyways, if there are exoEarths out there, then Kepler should find loads (and likely already has detected some!). I don't think it'll find any close enough to study in any depth, but it'd still be awesome to have it confirmed that they're out there!


thats insane I was watching the show The Universe, I cant believe how sensitive it is. Im sure your telescope can take it ;) Ive been out at sea at night with a full moon. It was almost as bright as day. It is still the most beautiful sight ive ever seen.
If we stopped using catalytic converters, it would simply mean a delay in converting CO to CO2. It would happen anyway, naturally. You can learn a lot goggling the question.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Right now I will accept any weather that includes RAIN!!


Seconded! Pretty dry here as well. No fire warning yet, but it's not far away.
Chaba is looking pretty good if you ask me!

Quoting Seastep:


You're right, it is worse for population centers, imo, but the planet comes first. Not an extremely small percentage of the earth's surface area.


That's one of the problems in Mexico City; they have to alternate cars by day, depending on their plate numbers in order to have less cars going around (That what I been told by some friends who live there)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats insane I was watching the show The Universe, I cant believe how sensitive it is. Im sure your telescope can take it ;) Ive been out at sea at night with a full moon. It was almost as bright as day. It is still the most beautiful sight ive ever seen.


It's amazing what you can do with good equipment, and above the atmosphere :)

You need to get out on the sea on a moonless night -- if you think full moon is awesome, wait until you see the milky way so bright you almost feel like you could read a book by it :) I think, nominally, the only Venus, Jupiter and Mars are bright enough for you to read (aside from Sun + Moon), but it's still breathtaking :D

Sadly, most planet search work is done during "bright" time (around full moon), so my trips to the observatory while I'm at UNSW will be when the moon is too bright to get to know the southern sky. Still, I can't complain really :D
Quoting Quadrantid:


Pretty much -- here's the Kepler home page. Dunno why I keep mispelling it :)

Anyways, if there are exoEarths out there, then Kepler should find loads (and likely already has detected some!). I don't think it'll find any close enough to study in any depth, but it'd still be awesome to have it confirmed that they're out there!


Agreed! To quote the movie Contact, "it'd be an awful waste of Space", if we were alone in the universe.
Quoting Quadrantid:


It's amazing what you can do with good equipment, and above the atmosphere :)

You need to get out on the sea on a moonless night -- if you think full moon is awesome, wait until you see the milky way so bright you almost feel like you could read a book by it :) I think, nominally, the only Venus, Jupiter and Mars are bright enough for you to read (aside from Sun + Moon), but it's still breathtaking :D

Sadly, most planet search work is done during "bright" time (around full moon), so my trips to the observatory while I'm at UNSW will be when the moon is too bright to get to know the southern sky. Still, I can't complain really :D


why wouldnt they do it during a new moon?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its a poisonous gas, carbon monoxide kills a lot of people now, even with them. anytime you drive down the road youd need to wear a gas mask...


Meh, it's only 500 deaths per year and most of those are from stupidity.

CO2 will supposedly kill billions.
Quoting Seastep:


Meh, it's only 500 deaths per year and most of those are from stupidity.

CO2 will supposedly kill billions.

The CO will be converted anyway to CO2---we use converters so it is immediate and we do not have the toxic effects while waiting for "natural" conversion.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


why wouldnt they do it during a new moon?


The people I work with are doing radial velocity work (looking at the spectrum of the star, and watching the spectral lines be red- then blue-shifted as the planet and star orbit their centre of mass). That basically takes the light gathered by the telescope and puts it through a spectrometer -- so you don't need perfect dark skies. Other astronomy projects (mainly extragalactic things, and projects looking at very faint objects) take the dark time - the radial velocity search isn't really affected by moonlight (since it's looking at pretty bright stars, in order to have enough light to get accurate spectra), so makes do with bright time so everyone gets their turn at the telescope :D
The mind boggles :(

From the BBC website

'No alert' in Indonesian tsunami

A crucial link in Indonesia's tsunami warning system was not working during Monday's tsunami because it had been vandalised, says an Indonesian official.

-------------------------------

Really depressing to think that vandalism could have cost so many lives -- although of course (as the article says) the earthquake was so close to shore that the waves arrived within just a few minutes -- maybe the buoys would have made no difference, but it's really sad to think that people would vandalise something that has the potential to save hundreds of lives :(
Quoting Quadrantid:


The people I work with are doing radial velocity work (looking at the spectrum of the star, and watching the spectral lines be red- then blue-shifted as the planet and star orbit their centre of mass). That basically takes the light gathered by the telescope and puts it through a spectrometer -- so you don't need perfect dark skies. Other astronomy projects (mainly extragalactic things, and projects looking at very faint objects) take the dark time - the radial velocity search isn't really affected by moonlight (since it's looking at pretty bright stars, in order to have enough light to get accurate spectra), so makes do with bright time so everyone gets their turn at the telescope :D


What physics did you have to do, Im thinking about either doing Quantum or Thermodynamics, not sure what to do.
MENTAWAI ISLANDS, Indonesia – The death toll from a tsunami and a volcano rose to more than 340 Thursday as more victims of Indonesia's double disasters were found and an official said a warning system installed after a deadly ocean wave in 2004 had broken from a lack of maintenance.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
If we stopped using catalytic converters, it would simply mean a delay in converting CO to CO2. It would happen anyway, naturally. You can learn a lot goggling the question.


Please enlighten me with a link.

How long is that conversion and at what rate?

Seriously, I do not know.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What physics did you have to do, Im thinking about either doing Quantum or Thermodynamics, not sure what to do.


To get onto an Astro Ph.D., all the advice I was given said it was more important to do a Physics degree than an Astronomy degree -- basically, the basic physics you get taught on a Physics degree is really important...

So I did a 4 year Physics & Astronomy degree at the University of Durham in the UK -- it was a master's degree (three year version would have been batchelors). Meant that I ended up doing things like Quantum, Thermodynamics, Relativity, and all the rest, as well as my astro stuff. Which gave me a broader background to take into my astronomy career.

It sounds kind of perverse (doing less Astro at degree if you want it as a career), but things worked out, so I guess it was good advice :) Degrees in the UK are much more narrowly focussed than those in the US, as best I can gather, so the only none physics/maths/astronomy course I did in my four years was a first year single module on the philosphy of science... which seemed pointless at the time, but has come in handy since.

So the net result is that I got a very focussed education, finished my Ph.D. (well, D.Phil. :P) at 24, and started work as a post-doc much earlier than I would have in the US or mainland Europe, but the flip side is that I'm not as broadly educated. Personally, I think the broader degree schemes in the US and Europe are a great idea :)
Quoting Seastep:


Please enlighten me with a link.


Catalytic Converters - Various types

Link
Quoting Quadrantid:


To get onto an Astro Ph.D., all the advice I was given said it was more important to do a Physics degree than an Astronomy degree -- basically, the basic physics you get taught on a Physics degree is really important...

So I did a 4 year Physics & Astronomy degree at the University of Durham in the UK -- it was a master's degree (three year version would have been batchelors). Meant that I ended up doing things like Quantum, Thermodynamics, Relativity, and all the rest, as well as my astro stuff. Which gave me a broader background to take into my astronomy career.

It sounds kind of perverse (doing less Astro at degree if you want it as a career), but things worked out, so I guess it was good advice :) Degrees in the UK are much more narrowly focussed than those in the US, as best I can gather, so the only none physics/maths/astronomy course I did in my four years was a first year single module on the philosphy of science... which seemed pointless at the time, but has come in handy since.

So the net result is that I got a very focussed education, finished my Ph.D. (well, D.Phil. :P) at 24, and started work as a post-doc much earlier than I would have in the US or mainland Europe, but the flip side is that I'm not as broadly educated. Personally, I think the broader degree schemes in the US and Europe are a great idea :)


Yeah here it take 5 years or more to get a masters degree. And sometimes over ten years in school for a PHD, its actually the same advice I got, get a physics degree as meteorology, like astronomy, is all based off physics. Im sure for the weather side ill be told to do thermo and fluid dynamics, but quantum mechanics interests me.
Sorry I am not good at links, I don't post often, goggle: what happens to CO in the atmosphere? The first entry is "toxic profile for carbon monoxide".
Quoting Seastep:


Please enlighten me.
Que mucho Chaba....







Have a nice night all!
Quoting sunlinepr:


Catalytic Converters - Various types

Link


Not on catalytic converters. On CO being naturally turned into CO2.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah here it take 5 years or more to get a masters degree. And sometimes over ten years in school for a PHD, its actually the same advice I got, get a physics degree as meteorology, like astronomy, is all based off physics. Im sure for the weather side ill be told to do thermo and fluid dynamics, but quantum mechanics interests me.


It's a strange situation -- my D.Phil. took me three years -- the usual in the UK is about three and a half to four years, these days. Again, though, you're much more narrowly focussed, which I'm not sure is a good thing!

Thermo and hydrodynamics sound pretty key to meteorology to me -- though I suspect Quantum could be useful to you too, at some point! Basically, I tend to find everything can have a use, one way or another -- and you're more likely to do well in something if you're interested or enjoy it :)

Given how everything is heavily computer model based, could always be worth doing a computer module, too :) I learned fortran as part of my undergrad studies (yes, I know that makes me a fossil), and I still use it in pretty much every piece of research I do :)
I love catalytic converters, btw.

Good stuff.
Quoting Quadrantid:


It's a strange situation -- my D.Phil. took me three years -- the usual in the UK is about three and a half to four years, these days. Again, though, you're much more narrowly focussed, which I'm not sure is a good thing!

Thermo and hydrodynamics sound pretty key to meteorology to me -- though I suspect Quantum could be useful to you too, at some point! Basically, I tend to find everything can have a use, one way or another -- and you're more likely to do well in something if you're interested or enjoy it :)

Given how everything is heavily computer model based, could always be worth doing a computer module, too :) I learned fortran as part of my undergrad studies (yes, I know that makes me a fossil), and I still use it in pretty much every piece of research I do :)


haha, yeah Im required to take 4 semesters of computer science for it, so I should get enough. Alright im heading to bed, Night all great chattin
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


haha, yeah Im required to take 4 semesters of computer science for it, so I should get enough. Alright im heading to bed, Night all great chattin


Sleep well :)

I best head off too -- need to get back, fire up the barbie, and start cooking before my gf gets in :) Thanks for plenty of fun debating folks :)
Quoting Seastep:


Not on catalytic converters. On CO being naturally turned into CO2.


There are a lot of links; do a search on Yahoo.... or any search engine

I found this

Link

Gnite all...
Many NC counties are being dropped from tornado watches. Glad to see that! Thoughts go out to those affected by yesterday's storms.
729. JRRP
see you tomorrow
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280546
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING WITHIN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
so 92L went from 30 to 60% ...
274
TCNA21 RJTD 280600
CCAA 28060 47644 CHABA(1014) 18248 11292 12344 265// 90508=

October 28 2010, 0600z
Typhoon Chaba (TY 18)
24.8N 129.2E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

---
Chaba is almost a Category 5.
Quoting CaribBoy:
so 92L went from 30 to 60% ...


I thought it had the most potential of the three starting this morning.

Really improved in all areas.

Edited: For some reason I cannot get that they labeled the newer probable system 91 and the one already tagged with a % 92.
Subtropical Storm Shary is forming near Bermuda, all 3 invests may in fact develop, that would put us to 20 named storms. See, it wasn't impossible lol. We'll what happens, it seems 92L has the best chance to become a named system out of the 3 invests.
Quoting Seastep:


That's 91L and I thought it had the most potential of the three starting this morning.

Really improved in all areas.


No. 91L is the tropical wave east of the Windwards. 92L is the disturbance north of the Leewards.
Quoting reedzone:
Subtropical Storm Shary is forming near Bermuda, all 3 invests may in fact develop, that would put us to 20 named storms. See, it wasn't impossible lol. We'll what happens, it seems 92L has the best chance to become a named system out of the 3 invests.


Still hoping we hit Alpha.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still hoping we hit Alpha.


That would be something :)

2005 we hit Alpha, then 5 years later Alpha?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWELVE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01 2010-2011
10:00 AM Réunion October 28 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01R (1001 hPa) located at 13.6S 81.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.5S 79.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.1S/77.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.3S 74.3E - 20 knots (Depression se comblant)

Additional Information
========================

Sea surface temperature (around 26C) limits convective activity despite a weakening vertical wind shear. Strongest winds mainly extend far in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to 0327z ASCAT swath. Significative re-intensification is not expected within the next 120 hours over this globally westward forecasted track. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a west southwestward track within the next 36 hours to 48 hours and then a recurve west northwestward track on the equatorward edge of the low level subtropical anticyclonic belt.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. 91L is the tropical wave east of the Windwards. 92L is the disturbance north of the Leewards.


Yeah, see my edit. When it was referred twice, I double-checked.

Still don't get why the one that was already tagged was not the first invest.

Completely irrelevant to anything, though. Just a curiosity to me.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON CHABA (T1014)
15:00 PM JST October 28 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chaba (935 hPa) located at 24.8N 129.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 27.2N 131.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 31.6N 134.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 37.0N 144.0E - Extratropical
I'm guessing this won't be at 20% for very long.

To summarize (from ATCF & NHC):

90L: 35 knots | 1008 mb | 26.9N/41.1W | 50% (orange)

91L: 30 knots | 1006 mb | 06.8N/46.8W | 20% (yellow)

92L: 30 knots | 1009 mb | 23.5N/56.7W | 60% (red)

So neither the one with the lowest central pressure nor the one with the highest wind speed have the best odds for development. Just goes to show that the pros do, indeed, no more than most of us armchair mets do. ;-)

------------------------------------------

HAMweather says that 326 record high, or high minimum, temps have been set or tied in the United States in the past 24 hours, while just 21 record lows or low maximums have been. The map's very lopsided though, clearly showing the general location of the cold front; as that moves off the east coast later, there's no doubt the record high/record low ratio will go back to being a lot less lopsided.
743. ackee
Quoting alfabob:
I'm guessing this won't be at 20% for very long.

I agree probaly up to 40% at 8am
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING WITHIN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

that was very fast 20% to 60% in 24 hours..form invest 92l
wow the Atlantic blew up I think 90L won't develop however 92L will become ts/ss shary and 91l will eventually become Tomas. I think the million dollar question now will be how far south 91L travels. a northern route would give us a category 1 Omar(08) where as a southern path over S America could give us anything
I will be very interested to see if all 3 invests develop.. I suspect 92L will become Shary, 90L will become Tomas and 91L will become Virginie.
Good mornin wu-bloggers! Good coffee to all.

Oh there he is.

swooon....kerthunk.
cold weather come soon for the east coast!!!
Wow I didn't expect this kind of activity with two forming cyclones on Late October. 20 storms seems likely now. Too bad I need to leave for school.
NEEDS TO WATCH ALL THREE STORMS OR INVESTS HERE
MAYBE 60% AT 8AM ON INVEST 92L.
Morning, AquaK9 and all. In the seventies here already, I'm ready for the cold front that's supposed to be coming. We're in a high wind advisory and still in a Red Flag Fire Warning. Where's the rain??
Quoting aquak9:
Good mornin wu-bloggers! Good coffee to all.

Oh there he is.

swooon....kerthunk.
Morning Waterpuppy
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html
Gambler! good morning! another fine gentleman who makes me swoon with his words- no avatar needed!

(poor nea is off in a corner, blushing)

aislinipps- no rain. Buy a water barrel, the southeast is gonna be in trouble again due to no rain this winter.

16+16=32...see ya'll saturday.
91 knocking on the door of november will the john hope rule apply? living on the islands ive been watching the water closely. no sign of a water rise yet. oh yea 91 the john hope rule falls.
INVEST 92L UP TO 70% BY 8AM INVEST 90L GOING UP TO 60% BY 8AM INVEST 91L GOING UP TO 30% AT 8AM..
Eep! go to bed with one blob, get up with three?
What's up with Mother Nature?
INVEST 92L UP TO 70% BY 8AM INVEST 90L GOING UP TO 60% BY 8AM INVEST 91L GOING UP TO 30% AT 8AM..
3 disturbances could develop and if they do that gives us 20 for the year. And yet, not one of them will make a direct hit on the U.S. which is stunning that we could have 20 storms and not one would make a direct U.S. landfall.
Today will be a busy day in here
91L---20%----Really????
Quoting aquak9:
Gambler! good morning! another fine gentleman who makes me swoon with his words- no avatar needed!

(poor nea is off in a corner, blushing)

aislinipps- no rain. Buy a water barrel, the southeast is gonna be in trouble again due to no rain this winter.

16+16=32...see ya'll saturday.


We finally got some rain here this morning. A good little storm.
We got heavy rain this morning here in Mobile. We had been dry as a bone until this past week. Dont give up FL.
Is it my imagination or does 91L look like its at least a TD?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
3 disturbances could develop and if they do that gives us 20 for the year. And yet, not one of them will make a direct hit on the U.S. which is stunning that we could have 20 storms and not one would make a direct U.S. landfall.
yea but 91 has the potential to put a major monkey wrench in trying to rehab haiti. camping is no fun in a downpour. the u.s. has a vested interest in that area. there is alot of moisture with the system it will be interesting how much rain the windwards get as 91 or whatever passes through
INV/92L/XX
MARK
25.63N/58.55W
POSS.T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
7.58N/48.88W
ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT..
.OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT.
..OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
91L needs to stay away from Bonaire!
we may easily have 20 named storms before November... and I still think 1-2 more in November bringing us up to 22 named storms this year
Quoting clwstmchasr:
3 disturbances could develop and if they do that gives us 20 for the year. And yet, not one of them will make a direct hit on the U.S. which is stunning that we could have 20 storms and not one would make a direct U.S. landfall.


Bonnie did but that was more like an afternoon thunderstorm.
Off to Vancouver... I will update again tonight.


Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Ah, aqua, no corner, no blushing; just getting the kids up and off...just another of the thrills of single parenthood. ;-)

It's going to be very interesting to watch the possible development and/or interplay of the three invests. It's intriguing that 92L is the only one singled out by the NHC as a possible subtropical system; to my non-expert eye, 90L would seem to be a better candidate for that. One thing people should remember: the NHC's odds are only for the 48 hours after a particular TWO; they are not necessarily indicative of whether they think a TC will eventually form some days down the road--so don't assume they necessarily feel 91L won't eventually be something...

Meanwhile, the sad and scraggly remains of Richard are meeting up with the tail end of the big cold front draped across the country, and the result is a bit of convergence-based convection in the western GOM. I'm not in any way implying that something will come of this, just so you know; just brought it up for the sake of those who may find it interesting...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


take care big fish don't go to the bad side of town
778. DDR
Morning all
Heavy rain showers approaching Trinidad this morning,may pick up around 4 inches by weeks end.Its been dry here for 3 weeks now with the odd shower.
Radar...Link
Current conditions in New Orleans...

Here comes the drier, cooler air though...just a couple of more hours.

Harvey Canal, Harvey, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
77.8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 30.08 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 80 °F


92 expected here in Orlando today which would break another record for the 4th straight day. Also we may hit 90 next Monday and Tuesday and if that happens that would be the first time in history that we hit 90 in November. On another note watching the models for next Tuesday and Wednesday as FL could really get nailed not just with lots of rain but severe wx as well IF the 06Z GFS pans out.
Good morning all....

DDR, I still cannot access the Radar.
But looking at the Rainbow Loops, the weather looks to be interesting during the next couple of days.
Going Down the Islands tomorrow.
HUH!
Jeff,

I know it is way too early to say but some of the models are showing the system near south america to go WNW and get as far as the central or western caribbean due to a strong high above it then being picked up by the trough due to the strong east coast storm.

I saw two runs where the storm is pulled over cuba then close to florida; however, as of now Florida is not even in any path of this (yet eventhough it is too early to say anything).

what do you think as the system develops? does this look more like an east coast US storm or florida and GOM in the future?
Statement as of 4:34 PM EDT on October 27, 2010


Good morning

... Record high temperature broken at Orlando... a record high temperature of 91 degrees was set at Orlando Wednesday.
This breaks the old record of 89 which last occurred in 2009.
Source: Wuground.
Have a great day everyone.
Another packed day for me today.



90L is the wave far away from Bermuda...the 50%.

91L is the wave to the east of the island...the 20%.

92L is the wave to the north of the islands, near Bermuda....the 60%.

I expect 2 Sub Tropical Storms or Tropical Storms when I get home from school today.
Quoting kshipre1:
Jeff,

I know it is way too early to say but some of the models are showing the system near south america to go WNW and get as far as the central or western caribbean due to a strong high above it then being picked up by the trough due to the strong east coast storm.

I saw two runs where the storm is pulled over cuba then close to florida; however, as of now Florida is not even in any path of this (yet eventhough it is too early to say anything).

what do you think as the system develops? does this look more like an east coast US storm or florida and GOM in the future?


I think the US is safe from all three disturbances. The reason isa huge dip over the SE in the Jet stream with 120 mph screaming over FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_162.shtml
91L...the yellow...30kt 1006mb
90L...the orange...35kt 1008mb
92L...the red...30kt 1009mb
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
take care big fish don't go to the bad side of town

Dont listen to him, Orca.
The 'bad' side is where all the fun is....

Off to do stuff.
There are clouds to my East, and it feels damp.
The tale of the tape:

90L: 35 knots | 1010 mb | 26.9N/41.1W | 50% (orange)

90L has been dropped from a low back to a disturbance, pressure's risen two millibars, winds have dropped, and low-level circulation is becoming elongated. Lots of shear, and this one doesn't look very good at all right now.

91L: 30 knots | 1006 mb | 07.2N/48.6W | 20% (yellow)

91L continues to improve, and is moving a bit north of due west so may miss the SA coast. Pressure's down two millibars, and satellite appearance is improving by the hour.

92L: 30 knots | 1009 mb | 24.1N/58.7W | 60% (red)

92L has been upgraded to a low from a disturbance. Pressure and winds are steady at 1009mb and 30 knots (respectively), and it looks healthy on satellite, as well, though a bit top heavy convection-wise.
Quoting sunlinepr:




Its percentages should go way up when I get home from school today...
The one to watch, most dangerous, is 91L, due to its S location. The other two invests are going Fish.... to the Atl
thanks Jeff. one quick thing which I did not understand. what is about the 120mph and florida?

and, is the reason the US should be safe from these storms is because the jet is dipping quite a bit further south which will cause recurve early?
Quoting sunlinepr:
The one to watch, most dangerous, is 91L, due to its S location. The other two invests are going Fish.... to the Atl


US should be safe from 91L as well. Now PR could be a different story and if I lived there I would watch this closely.
Its looking like only 2/3 Invests will develop before October ends...

Invest 91L and 92L...90L is weakening.

That leaves us with Shary and Tomas for this month.

Otto+Paula+Richard+Shary+Tomas = 5 named storms...

If by chance all three of them develop, we will set and tie another record for 6 storms in October *2005*
798. 7544
loooks like 92l wants to keep going west no turn yet there but one is expected out to sea

91L is still the one to watch as it will head for the cariabien at 1006mb now this might develope first imo
NOUS42 KNHC 271520 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EDT WED 27 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-148 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK : PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 9.0N AND 57.5W FOR 29/1800Z WITH FOLLOW ON 6 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. ---ADDED


92L very close to Shary right now...
Has recon been scheduled for 91L yet?
Quoting Jeff9641:


US should be safe from 91L as well. Now PR could be a different story and if I lived there I would watch this closely.


On Alert here in PR.....
Quoting 7544:
loooks like 92l wants to keep going west no turn yet there but one is expected out to sea

91L is still the one to watch as it will head for the cariabien at 1006mb now this might develope first imo


Severely doubt that...Its not as well organized as 92L yet.
thanks Jeff. one quick thing which I did not understand. what is about the 120mph and florida?

and, is the reason the US should be safe from these storms is because the jet is dipping quite a bit further south which will cause recurve early?
10
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Its looking like only 2/3 Invests will develop before October ends...

Invest 91L and 92L...90L is weakening.

That leaves us with Shary and Tomas for this month.

Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas = 5 named storms...

If by chance all three of them develop, we will set and tie another record for 6 storms in October *2005*


If just one develops, 2010 will beat the record set in 2005 for the most storms to develop over September and October, and we'll tie 2005 with the most storms to develop over the August-October period (16). If two storms develop, we'll beat that second record as well. (As you may recall, the two prior seasons with eight September storms saw only one October storm combined; 2010 is already well over that.)

My guess for the 11:00 TWO: 90L will be dropped back to yellow (10%-20%), 91L will be raised to orange (30%-40%), and 92L will stay as it is.
CMC places 91L S of PR; Waiting for Levi's insight

Quoting kshipre1:
thanks Jeff. one quick thing which I did not understand. what is about the 120mph and florida?

and, is the reason the US should be safe from these storms is because the jet is dipping quite a bit further south which will cause recurve early?


Exactly!
Quoting Neapolitan:
10

If just one develops, 2010 will beat the record set in 2005 for the most storms to develop over September and October, and we'll tie 2005 with the most storms to develop over the August-October period (16). If two storms develop, we'll beat that second record as well. (As you may recall, the two prior seasons with eight September storms saw only one October storm combined; 2010 is already well over that.)

My guess for the 11:00 TWO: 90L will be dropped back to yellow (10%-20%), 91L will be raised to orange (30%-40%), and 92L will stay as it is.


Since when is there a 11AM TWO...? Anyways..

90L: 30%

91L: 40%

92L: 70%
cool, thanks Jeff. but what about the 120mph and florida in relation to the jet stream? what is 120mph? sorry
Here is my guess for the next TWO

Nea, How many of the named storms were forecast by the models? Like 92l came out of thin air, it seems.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like August. Look at the wave coming off Africa.
Quoting naviguesser:
Regarding palm trees in Greenland:

I remember reading a while ago that there was a theory that the poles of the Earth switch and move every x thousand years. A bit fuzzier recollection is that when this happens, where the "equator" ends up is dependent on where things stop after the shift. According to this line of thought, Greenland could have ended up on the equator and no Global Warming would have been required to grow palm trees there. I have no references for this, but seemed like a great time to stir the pot...

Back on topic, 3 AOIs this late in Oct... could be an interesting November


Was scrolling through the discussion and found this... Wow! People say crazy things on here an I just ignore it 99% of the time, but this takes the cake and I had to comment. So, every once in a while the Poles just switch position, huh? Maybe the equator (which is defined to be such that it evenly divides the hemispheres) will end it up in Alaska. :) Maybe that's what killed the dinosaurs. Even if you don't understand physics, wouldn't you stop and think, "How in the world would this happen?"

It's the magnetic poles, not the geographical poles by the way.
seems a bit odd imo to see 3 invests form in a not climatologically favorable area for tc development,more like july pattern,imo somethinggg wierd is going on w/the wx,how many times this yr was a tc headed towrds the US and they either fell apart of curved out to sea or into the yucatan area,it doesnt add up....haarp pumping the ridge over the se at times and sending down strong troughs thru the NE in mid august???,if we are messing w/wx patterns were all going to be in for a ride as mother nature will fight back and we will see alot more superstorms and abnormal wx....jmo
Dynamic models out.



Howdy all...it's 28 October, it was 83 degrees at 6:45 this morning and there are 3 invests out there. Did someone flip the wrong switch somewhere?
isnt denier a thread count? like 300 denier cotton sheets right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Since when is there a 11AM TWO...? Anyways..

90L: 30%

91L: 40%

92L: 70%

My bad; I meant TWU. You know, update. Which there will be. In just a few moments...
Quoting Grothar:
Dynamic models out.



91L is a large system. Geritol is delicious. Isnt it?...:)
821. Jax82
Quoting scooster67:
Nea, How many of the named storms were forecast by the models? Like 92l came out of thin air, it seems.

Well, I usually don't follow the models as closely as some here do--I tend to use them more as a general idea of what's possible than as a glimpse into what will be--so I honestly couldn't say with any accuracy which of these storms they showed. However, I posted several satellite loops a week or so ago showing the precursor to 91L rolling off the African coast, and I remember one user or another saying, "That's the system the CMC brings to the Caribbean in a week", so that one appears to have been picked up. 90L, of course, has been out there for eight or nine days now, so I don't know whether any of the models saw it. As for 92L, I don't recall hearing or reading about it. I and others mentioned it Tuesday afternoon as "something of possible interest", but that's about it.
Quoting hydrus:
91L is a large system. Geritol is delicious. Isnt it?...:)


91L on Geritol.

Quoting RipplinH2O:
Howdy all...it's 28 October, it was 83 degrees at 6:45 this morning and there are 3 invests out there. Did someone flip the wrong switch somewhere?


Must have. Recovering from a allergy attack, which is normal for Spring and the pear tree has several buds blooming. Feels like a normal FL Panhandle Spring.
Hope Pottery has his snorkel, and fins handy.
Quoting stillwaiting:
seems a bit odd imo to see 3 invests form in a not climatologically favorable area for tc development,more like july pattern,imo somethinggg wierd is going on w/the wx,how many times this yr was a tc headed towrds the US and they either fell apart of curved out to sea or into the yucatan area,it doesnt add up....haarp pumping the ridge over the se at times and sending down strong troughs thru the NE in mid august???,if we are messing w/wx patterns were all going to be in for a ride as mother nature will fight back and we will see alot more superstorms and abnormal wx....jmo


Stillwaiting - since you dared to type the word -- I'm going to be BRAVE & jump in w/you..... I've been "thinking" HAARP all season..... and yes, always consequences for action... you don't mess w/MaNature.
Quoting Grothar:
Dynamic models out.



The NCEP model shows an active Caribbean Sea for a good part of November...NCEP..Link
Some early concensus models on 91L

Link
Late consensus model for 91L

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92L very close to Shary right now...
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Has recon been scheduled for 91L yet?
See post 799. Scheduled for tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:


91L on Geritol.

Yes, yes...I remember in the 1960,s we would seed hurricanes. Instead of silver iodide, Geritol tablets.
818 twhcracker "isn't denier a thread count? like 300 denier cotton sheets right?"

If it were so, this blog would be smoother than silk.

As for palm trees cuz of the Earth tipping to put Greenland on the equator... A little too much warming for palm trees to survive, or mountains for that matter. The energy that'd hafta be expended would be so high that the waste heat would vaporize the oceans, then turn life into carbon dioxide and water before melting the Earth's crust.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, I usually don't follow the models as closely as some here do--I tend to use them more as a general idea of what's possible than as a glimpse into what will be--so I honestly couldn't say with any accuracy which of these storms they showed. However, I posted several satellite loops a week or so ago showing the precursor to 91L rolling off the African coast, and I remember one user or another saying, "That's the system the CMC brings to the Caribbean in a week", so that one appears to have been picked up. 90L, of course, has been out there for eight or nine days now, so I don't know whether any of the models saw it. As for 92L, I don't recall hearing or reading about it. I and others mentioned it Tuesday afternoon as "something of possible interest", but that's about it.
i had been watching the GFS all week, and it has had a solution that 91L and 92L would form but yesturday started to hint at 90L forming as well
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, yes...I remember in the 1960,s we would seed hurricanes. Instead of silver iodide, Geritol tablets.


The 60's, boy you must be old to remember that.
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, yes...I remember in the 1960,s we would seed hurricanes. Instead of silver iodide, Geritol tablets.


Man, what a big spinnin monster...
Quoting Grothar:


The 60's, boy you must be old to remember that.


I don't know you guys, but I don't remember it, but I read it when I was in pre-kinder....
Anyone think we will be hit in the CONUS??
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't know you guys, but I don't remember it, but I read it when I was in pre-kinder....


Very funny! LOL
Looking at 91L, where the heat is left in the Caribbean, big pic WV loop I'm a little concerned for Haiti/DR. HWRF takes it more toward PR but watching the run 92L isn't nearly as strong as it is on the HWRF run for 92L. I lean toward global models when multiple blobs are in play. GFS doesn't seem to inish 91L well on the last run. CMC has outpaced the rest on 90L 61nm error last 24hrs, 2nd is HWRF with 83nm. Notice CMC is leaning toward Hispaniola.
Here in PR the only fact that can help us right now, is that shear keeps it from developing (doesn't seems so), so that it will reach us as a wave or TD.... Else, it looks serious, for me, at this moment....
Quoting Grothar:


The 60's, boy you must be old to remember that.
Well at least they didnt try to carbon date me. You on the other hand...;)
We may get that hyperactive season after all..
PEOPLE IN THE ISLANDS BEWARE..
While 91L is going to have to fight off shear it got a well defined well stacked circulation on RGB satellite, especially for a storm so far south. Plenty of moisture, warm ocean TCHP everything going for it. Until it goes north.
There is 50KNT of shear over us now but that may relax a bit as the upper level low causing 92L becomes more organized and moves NW which incidentally will suck 91L North over some islands right now looks like the DR but my feeling is it will be farther east..

Is there any blogger here that looks like JFK??? You May anwser that post please....
Quoting sunlinepr:


Man, what a big spinnin monster...
91L is growing...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Here in PR the only fact that can help us right now, is that shear keeps it from developing (doesn't seems so), so that it will reach us as a wave or TD.... Else, it looks serious, for me, at this moment....

I am not taking this one lightly..it's late and climatology is against it and right now shear is 30-50 knots to it's north.. but the 120HR upper air forecasts have that shear relaxing..
And right now it looks to be developing before it gets to the shear so it will have to be torn apart..which takes time..
Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at 91L, where the heat is left in the Caribbean, big pic WV loop I'm a little concerned for Haiti/DR. HWRF takes it more toward PR but watching the run 92L isn't nearly as strong as it is on the HWRF run for 92L. I lean toward global models when multiple blobs are in play. GFS doesn't seem to inish 91L well on the last run. CMC has outpaced the rest on 90L 61nm error last 24hrs, 2nd is HWRF with 83nm. Notice CMC is leaning toward Hispaniola.


Good model analysis....
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone think we will be hit in the CONUS??


Jeff alluded to the jet stream being so far south screaming at 120MPH that it's improable that CONUS would be affected by 91L under those circumstances; that is, unless the jet stream pulls back.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone think we will be hit in the CONUS??


Knowing that i've been through Wilma, anything is possible.
If you remember the '60s, you weren't there.
We already got the hyperactive season this just adds to it ;)
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone think we will be hit in the CONUS??


I think Conus hits from now on will come from the West....
Quoting aspectre:
If you remember the '60s, you weren't there.


My "look alike" Marilyn Monroe was very much a live and living life back in the 50's and 60's...



Quoting FlaBlondie:


Oh no my dear, we don't want any more of that old nasty Wilma stuff coming here and messing up a perfectly good Halloween..



Haha I know, I was speaking of 91L.
Quoting Skyepony:
I know I probably shouldn't~ but I couldn't help but draw all over the Graphical TWO...it's still their forecast.


Very creative...and nice to see your lighter side.
92L reminds me a heck alot of Olga in 2007, the structure that is..
Quoting FlaBlondie:


Oh no my dear, we don't want any more of that old nasty Wilma stuff coming here and messing up a perfectly good Halloween..







(double takes....questions many things) moves on
Quoting reedzone:
92L reminds me a heck alot of Olga in 2007, the structure that is..


The only dif. is that olga looked like this N of RD... 91L looks healthier more than 900 miles away....

I originally didn't think that 91L would develop, but it's looking very good this morning.

Quoting Buhdog:


(double takes....questions many things) moves on


I'm with you on this one. So many things are wrong with that.
STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!!!
ENTERPRISE, ALABAMA IS GETTING RAIN!!!!!!!

Man, it's been dry over here!

Anyhow, I see the NHC website has decorated their map for fall. All the Red, Orange, and Yellow colors really spruce things up! I have to look through here and get the full synopsis.

Right after I get a coffee!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I originally didn't think that 91L would develop, but it's looking very good this morning.


This one has the best chance out of all three.
Quoting sunlinepr:


The only dif. is that olga looked like this N of RD... 91L looks like that more than 900 miles away....



You mean 92L :P
Houston set a record yesterdy at 94. This morning winds are blowing 30 gusting to 40mph and dewpoints have tanked into the 20s with red flag warning in place.
POSS T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
7.58N/48.88W
Quoting cat5hurricane:

This one has the best chance out of all three.


92L is at 60%, should become a Subtropical Storm very soon, the 91L is next in line for Thomas I believe.
883. JRRP

Quoting RitaEvac:
Houston set a record yesterdy at 94. This morning winds are blowing 30 gusting to 40mph and dewpoints have tanked into the 20s with red flag warning in place.

94. Talk about some dry heat in the Space City.
POSS. T.C.F.A.
INV/92L/XX
MARK
25.63N/58.55W
Quoting caneswatch:


I'm with you on this one. So many things are wrong with that.


I have met quite a few girls over the years who have played to the monroe tip...Weird. I suppose it would be great for 1 nice long weekend. The weather in SWFL is downright muggy and too hot. This indian summer sucks.
863 FlaBlondie "My "look alike" Marilyn Monroe... "

Ain't Holloween yet: no need to go braggin' that ya look like ya been decayin' for the past 50-odd years.
Quoting reedzone:


92L is at 60%, should become a Subtropical Storm very soon, the 91L is next in line for Thomas I believe.

I do believe 92L will become a subtropical storm as well--and probably develop faster than 91L. But 91L will become a bigger nuisance down the road I think.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

94. Talk about some dry heat in the Space City.


Nah, dewpoints were in the 70s yesterday
Quoting reedzone:


You mean 92L :P


Sorry, I'm not considering 90 & 92 dangerous to land; I'm concerned about 91L....
XRichard is about to affect the CONUS, remember, the reason why it grew in thunderstorms yesterday is because wind shear has dropped to 10-20 knots as the jet stream lifted north before the trough. Nothing but a remnant low but eventually Richard was going to recurve, I had stated this days ago when it was struggling as a TS. It's October, not September and storms down there will recurve eventually.

Quoting aspectre:
If you remember the '60s, you weren't there.
ROFL Well maybe not old enough to participate?
895. Jax82
896. Jax82
NEW BLOG
Hi all thought i would finally register after lurking for years, hope to learn some more thongs from the blog
Hi blog thought i would finally register after lurking for years, hope to learn some more from the good folks here, cheers