WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Strong tropical wave blows into the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2006

A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains. Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center, which appears to be near 11N 59W, near the islands of Trinidad and Tobago and just off the South American coast. The storm's organization has steadily increased since yesterday, and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed. The storm has two main areas of intense thunderstorms visible on satellite imagery this morning that are almost disconnected. I expect the northern mass will dissipate today, since it is much farther from the center of circulation.

Wind shear is favorable in a small area over the storm--5-10 knots--and is forecast to remain low through the next five days. However, there is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, so the forecast of low shear could easily change. A large area of dry air and Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Caribbean, and may be a modest impediment to intensification. The primary difficulty for the storm lies in its close proximity to South America. The storm center may hug the coast through Saturday, limiting its development. The storm should bring heavy rains and winds near tropical storm force over the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Friday. After that, there is a lot of uncertainty.

The computer models
The latest 8pm and 2am EDT computer model runs have a variety of solutions. The Canadian model continues to be very consistent and very gung-ho, developing 97L into a strong tropical storm on Saturday, south of Jamaica, then taking the storm into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. The NOGAPS model is also consistent, assuming a more southerly track will occur with no development due to close proximity to the South American coast. The GFS takes a weak tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Saturday, then into the Bahamas. The GFDL has the same idea, but has a much stronger system that becomes a Category 1 hurricane in the Bahamas on Monday.

The run-to-run consistency of the GFDL has been poor, and both the GFDL and GFS have not done a good job forecasting the initial track of the storm so far. A more southerly track betwen Jamaica and Honduras like the Canadian and NOGAPS models are suggesting is probably more reasonable. If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane, as the GFDL and Canadian models have been suggesting. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but it appears that Jamaica, Cuba, and the Yucatan would be at highest risk in the Caribbean. No part of the U.S. coast can be ruled out as a target in the longer term.

Got travel plans to the Caribbean this week? Don't change them yet. This appears to be an all-or-nothing kind of situation, and we could get nothing. It may not be until Saturday that we have a reasonable idea if this storm will be a major threat.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Invest 97L.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance 97L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Debby
Tropical Storm Debby remains a minimal tropical storm today, but is expected to slowly intensify in response to some warmer waters along her path the next two days. By the time Debby turns north this weekend, she could attain hurricane status. Early next week, Debby is expected to get caught up in the jet stream and die in the North Atlantic.

I'll have an update this afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters check out 97L.

Why the 2am run of the GFDL failed
The 2am EDT run of the GFDL model failed on 97L this morning, so I was quoting the results from the 8pm EDT run last night. I got an email from Morris Bender of the GFDL project this morning on why the 2am GFDL run failed:

The vortex initialized from our initialization was very weak as the initializaiton process spins up the storm to match the observed initial winds. Since the easterlies in the lower level were very strong in the GFS analysis, it initialized a disturbance with very weak vorticity.

As you can see at hour 0 there was almost no circulation intially. As a result, our grid movement shut down at 3 hours and the inner nests could no longer follow the storm for the rest of the forecast.

The previous runs also had a very weak initial disturbance but there was enough of a pressure gradient that the inner nests continued to follow the vortex and eventually with the high resolution it developed into a signficant tropical cyclone.

In the 6z run, the weak distrubance moved out of the high resolution inner grid, into the coarse resolution, and so all we had left was a very weak disturbance that could not be resolved in the corase outer mesh.


As you can see, getting the computer models to work on weak disturbances is a difficult business! We should not put too much faith in the computer models for any weak system; it is too difficult for the models to get the starting conditions of the storm correct.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wind shear is favorable in a small area over the storm--5-10 knots--and is forecast to remain low through the next five days. However, there is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, so the forecast of low shear could easily change.
Thanks Doctor M.
Thanks Dr. M.
Where's Togabo? ;-)

How serious of a hurricane are we talking about here?
Let the shredding of the Dr's update begin!
Posted By: mctypething at 1:31 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
first


U nOOb


Looks like we gonna have to wait until this weekend to debate this. Might as well close down shop...
..sees nothing sig..staus quo on 97L..GM All....
It's another ABC island thing right now.
AllyBama, Good Morning
good explanation DR. M. Thanks
thanks Dr M

S of Jamaica eh ---hmmmm
Not good for Cayman either

lets hope there is no closed low before it gets to 63W. Climatology would then dictate no development before the W Caribbean -- unless this is another exceptional yr of rule breaking in the tropics !!

We have thunder rolling outside now and it is starting to get dark. Another rainy day it looks like for us
..see no sig changes..all is status quo with 97L..Gmorning
Sounds to me like we can't really make any "good" predictions until this weekend...

That sucks.
"If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane"

Serious...... I hate it when Dr. Masters uses adjectives!


As for why no info from the Dr. on EPAC.....

how many EPAC bloggers do we have on this blog?????? do we have 1?? LOL
Tobago is a little Island off of Trinidad, if u look on the map and u know where Trinidad is it is directly above Trinidad to the right
Thanks for the update DR M.

Did anyone notice that the latest GFS has a weak system form off the Ga coast and then imediatly move W on shore? Any thoughts on this? There is also some serious convection rolling off the SC coast this morning...

Looking for models?
Debby
Tropical Storm Debby remains a minimal tropical storm today, but is expected to slowly intensify in response to some warmer waters along her path the next two days. By the time Debby turns north this weekend, she could attain hurricane status
My girl stays strong and only brings "E" ticket carnival rides to the fishies...tra la laing my way through the forest tossing rose petals..on my way to pick out gs's cheerleading outfit
My prediction is keep checking the Canadian model. The only one that picked this up correctly from the beginning. Unless of course something else develops and the GFDL was correct also.
,,because e-pac are not a threat at anytime to US interest...
SJ, definately some nasty weather off the SC coast.... is it flooding down there yet????

rain doesnt seem to be moving......
A recent burst of convection right near the center of 97L and additional banding beginning on the latest NASA run.
Looking for models?
............................
sounds like an ad for a porn site...not that i would know what an ad for one of those sites looked like
S America is not always a problem for these systems. I would not place too much hope in that factor to kill 97L. At best it is only likely to slow the pace of development. Shear would be a better bet
See 1996
Link
...Only Okinowa & Guam are directly affected by e-pac systems..as Military bases..they get their info on threats from a differnt source other than the NHC,,,
ricderr - lol
then taking the storm into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane


oh no
morning ally...how's life today?


here is the area on the gfs SJ cited..... interesting SJ..... is there a front..... could it be subtropical......

Thel...there's a cold front in the picture there I believe. Check the local NWS office. I read something about that earlier but do not remember which office.
ricderr - life is wonderful right now..have to go to work shortly though :(
and how are you?
the weather here right now is only overcast, we do have some high gusts, as the normal wind is stronger than normal. The rain has stopped, do you all think we'll get any more, what about T-storms?
If the Canadian model is correct...then I'm getting my gas cans filled up tomorrow. Pensacola is selling at $2.68/gal. As soon as this system developes and is forcasted to intensify as it heads to the GOM...damn sure the price of gas will intesify as well. Get is while it's "cheap"! lol
97L will never become a td
Hello All,
I've been lurking a couple of months and have learned a great deal thanks to you. I've a question. What is the name of the "Canadian" model that Dr. Masters refers to?
i'm very good..enjoying some well deserved leave....waiting for the admiral to appear..awake and beautified....she's promised me a day of shopping and lunch..gag, choke and squirm...i made a comment that the king was only interested in getting in 18 this afternoon whereupon i received the look of death and decided to abide by her wishes
I'm glad Dr. Masters made that addendum about the failed GFDL run.

We definately have something to watch folks. If you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast, you need to pay close attention.
weatherbrat - good price on gas! Sam's posted $2.71 yesterday..and your're right about the price spiking upward. plan on filling a few gas cans next few days..just in case.
..heres a snippet of a local kind..but relavent..."Times picayune today...Many or most of 34 pumps motors thr Army Corps of Engineers is installing in floodgatesat the 17th Street , Orleans Ave.,and London Ave canals may have to be rebuilt to fix a vibration problem that forced officials to shut them down during the Monday tests.The vibration problem is likely to further delay the billion -dollar floodgate project designed to spare much of the New Orleans area from another catastrophic storm surge.........
That's the name, I believe. The Canadian Model. :)
could be another Beyrl stalled front deal.......thats what it looks like..... guess we'll have to keep an eye out......

GOM pressures are remaining high to have so many clouds.
Rapid Intensification...here I come
Rapid Intensification...here I come
Rapid Intensification...here I come



ah..reminds me of Wilma..went from a quiet tropical storm to a CAT 5 in bout 12 hours...ahhh sweet roses
..they cranked up all 3 of the outfall canals floogates pumps @ the same time in 3 different locations..the intakes werent in low enough..the pumps couldnt grab enuf water to run properly..and the pumps Hummed & vibrated so bad the liners for the floodgate walls..may have warped..its a comedy of errors....
CMC model.
ricderr - so glad that you are having so much fun on your leave! lol
my hubby on course already this a.m. - tries to play before heat and p.m. showers arrive :)
..GIGO..garbage in ..garbage out..an Apollo artifact relates to the GFDL..LOL
(what a waste of time&money the leaves are. people need to move outta under sea level conditions and just bull doze that area)
..I love the smell of Java scripts in da morning..reminds me of...of Victory..ahhhhhhhhhh!
Just got a report from Trinidad serious wind trees down, and RAIN RAIN RAIN.
Running closeup vis loop from weathertap, there IS an exposed LLC jusy west of Barbados, IVO St. Vincnets

StormW, it certainly appears that may be the case.



wonder if there is something like that in that southern portion????
ally...i am so jealous...while i'm suffering through looking at fabrics for new drapes...he'll be perfecting his putting game..life is not fair at all..LOL
ricderr is a very smart man
I'm not sure I buy the lower blob taking over. The mid-level circ to the east of Grenada still appears healthy. If that is the case the latest wind shear analysis has lifted the shear some in front of it, but just to the north shear remains high. I think convection will continue to build today over the mid level circ enough to have a depression by tomorrow. The steering currents take it due west for now and that should keep the main circ below the high sheer.
steering currents
Link
current wind shear
Link
floater 2 visible loop
Link
its Levees...the Corps failed Louisiana..period..geta grip...
...sees the idiocy in the previous post from whrilwind...Im a resident here and so are many who post here...your comment is non sequitor
Thanks Randrewl.
correction to my earlier post. Circulation is northeast of grenada.
OK..the admiral is about....time to play chaufer....eww and ahh at the correct time...and carry the bags....enjoy your morning everyone
yes..life is not fair...he plays and wants a new set of cobras..so i work to buy him new set of cobras..what is wrong with this picture! lol
(you do know there are reports that the govenment blew some of the leeves to save the richer part of the neiborhood, right) (there were reports on that and some rappers made songs about that)
good day ricderr!
..if the oufall Canals & the Indudtrial canal breeches wouldnt have failed @ Cat 2 levels...we wouldnt b having this discussion...The storm conditions that were on the west side of katrina..ie:..the surge level..was only 12-15 ft in Lake Ponchatrain..the designs failed..and inundated us from 4 different breeches...not a 28 ft surge like on Miss coast..
i agree vortex, if you ref my earlier comments, i believe the northern portion is the part to watch..... but at this point, we'll just have to watch and see what happens the next 3-4 hrs or so.....
God Bless New Orleans. And God pleeeeeeeeeze Bless the New Orleans Saints.

Being pretty much a cyclogenesis-stupid kinda guy, is there anything to be concerned about all that wet stuff in the southern GOM?
It appears Dr. Masters' morning 97L center position and idea that the southern blob will take over is just wrong. As many are now posting, a weak, exposed vortex appears to be approaching the water between St. Vincent and Grenada. The vortex is outracing the convection and if this does not change 97L is in trouble.
This weather pattern is very complex and poses a potential treat for a tropical disturbance to form in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Think someone yesterday said this and will move across Fl into the carolinas.
Whirlwind.... Joining in with the propaganda??? Be careful. You are not recieving correct info. As far as wasting money on the coast... research and see how far "sea level" goes. If that is a waste then lets move Cali., too many earthquakes. Mid-west has too many tornados. North gets too cold. Where doe you live. There is no Utopia. Just have to survive.
tks Gulfscotsman - i noticed rain lurking off the coast on earlier local radar. becareful other there on the bluff- don't slip off!
LyonOfLongBeach A large area of disturbed weather covers the Gulf of Mexico driven by a large and strong upper level low centered south of Mobile Alabama - and several low centers along a surface trough. A possible 1012mb low is in the Southern Gulf of Mexico NW of the Yucatan. This weather pattern is very complex and poses a potential treat for a tropical disturbance to form in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Coutesy of the Scot



well, least now we know "where" to look.....
StormW ...Good job. I've been watching this shear go to work since I got up around 6.
.LOL about Blowing up..if you could have gone out in Cat 3 conditions ..set charges...did the set-up..er..ran the det wire,..@ 4 different locales..you a Much better Plastics man than I ever was in the Marine Corps...plus its an Urban myth that goes back to when the US blwe the Levees on the Miss River in 1927..above New Orleans during a spring flood..into ..sugarcane fields..that memory was translated to the Lower 9th in 65 when Cat 3 Betsy came thru here..The same was sid then..its a myth..nothing more..Now ..if ya wanted to take out a structure during a Cat 3 Storm ..you would need a ground based laser designator..and F-18 or 15..flying above the tops..to fire a 2000lb guided munition...thats the way to do it...LOL
StormW, my feeling is the shear conditions along 97L's path for the next couple of days has deteriorated.
musicallydeclined - not trying to move noone. If you live under sea level or close, then you should not complain if your house is under water. you know the risks of living there, thats what im saying.
I live in WPB in south FL. I know the risks here, I dont complain.
I keep reading how the Saharan dust keeps impeding storm intensification this Summer. Is this the norm or an unusual year for this and is this cloud of dust visible by satellite imagery? Is this what I'm seeing when I look at a loop of the central Atlantic? As the frames move, I see a brighter area south of the Cape Verde Island that sweeps across just north of South America and through the Lesser Antilles.
I wonder if they are still going to fly today if 97L is getting its butt kicked.
Whirlwind,

I guess you don't have a very high level of education......... Reports from the government........hmmmmmmm. DON'T BELEIVE THE HYPE!!! No levees were blown, during the actual flooding. Towards the mouth of the river a levee was blown to allow flood waters that were trapped within the levee system, a means of getting out. NEW ORLEANS, MY HOME!!!
Whirlwind has absolutely no business telling people to move from New Orleans. There is NO location in this world that is safe from natural disasters. I am offended that this person would think so little of human beings. How would he/she like to be told to move from his/her hometown? Some people are so insensitive.
StormW...Just keep doing what you're doing.
.....plus to desecrate the area with such words as we approach the sad Anniversery of such a loss..is frankly...UNAmerican..and an insult to those who gave so much..for so long to so many...and to those who sent money..and those who opened their homes & lives to the worst Nat Dis in US History..but you an xample as to how our plight is percieved nationwide..come on down..Ill be glad to give ya the tour..but the tour stretches from Kenner ,..to Mobile Bay...
well, don't know the results, but it looks like convection is on the increase on 97L....

i would say if the shear relaxes at all, we could have genesis........
Whirlwind- just pointing out that certain comments are uncalled for. No one wants to hear about their home bulldozed. Oh and by the way I do not live in New Orleans but grew up north of there. The rappers are always a reliable source of info. lol.
what does gfdl have against us poor folk living on the gulf coast beaches? :0 they're worse than jim cantore
Patrap...You guys really need to take this stuff to another blog please.
..now ..back to the present and 97L...anybody have a motion ..& speed..?...
MusicallyDeclined wrote:

Whirlwind.... Joining in with the propaganda??? Be careful. You are not recieving correct info. As far as wasting money on the coast... research and see how far "sea level" goes.

I agree with you to a certain extent. There is a lot of hype out there. OTOH, if your house / neighbourhood regularly floods with a high tide or 3 inches of rain, u should consider doing what others have done over the years. I'm trying to remember which city it was in either OK or NE that declared the areas along its riverbanks a flood plain, refused to allow people to rebuild in the flood plain, and grassed and treed it as a green space. That is good common sense. I think this has also been done in Miami, though to what extent I am not certain. Of course this takes some guts and gumption from elected officials as well as $$ to help people relocate.
Isn't it currently in relatively "light" shear around 10kts?? The 40kt shear is well off to its west. It shouldn't be feeling that just yet.
..LOl..Randrool...LOL
thelmores, if anything the net shear will only increase over the next couple of days as 97L races westward toward a big upper trough over the western Caribbean that is moving slowly.
well, we can argue, or whatever.... but personally, i would not let my family live below sea level along the gulf coast...... the idea seems rediculous to me! LOL
Here is a nice color loop of the Caribbean, there is now way 97L gets pulled up to the Bahamas, and not to sound like stormtop, but this could be a dangerous storm next week. The moister feed could get cut off by South America though, and the whole thing could fizzle and drift west. (I hope) You all can see how it is pulling moisture from the south east. I don't see a Bahama track. LinkLink
hi im from Trinidad and Tobago a twin island republic just north of venezuela.
It been rainy for most of yestreday and today but wind gust have been at a minimum and i attribute this to the fact that to the north of trinidad there is a mountain range throught that helps protect the island, we have been fortunate so far to never had a direct hit from any hurricane, lets hope this continues thanks
Whirlwind, no one blew any levees. The government knew there were people sheltered in their homes. To blow a levee would be commiting murder. Sit back in your WPB home and be quiet. Everyone here is working to get the city repaired. People want to come home.
Hawkeyewx...That's what I'm seeing also! So much for all the favorable conditions. Things change fast. What we have seen here this morning shows that beautifully. I do not rely on shear forecasts. Just work the WV loops.
Just started raining here, overcast, cloud cover all over, 1001mb, wind is at 21.9mph with the highest gusts at 25.7mph.
St. George in Barbados
Guys...can you all please take your Louisiana argument somewhere else?
go to Margie Kieper's blog on this website..it deals with the storm surge from Katrina. worlds of data and pics from LA to AL. very disturbing to those of us who were cut off from national news at that time..
..
Nash my analysis of the infared and water vapor loops shows the shear getting to it earlier. In the last couple of hours more convection has been able to hold on to the north and west. This seems to bear out cimss analysis of the shear lifting a little to the north and west from their earlier reports.
New Orleans is like any other American city.....a victim of Urban Sprawl. 150 yrs ago, everyone who lived in New Orleans proper lived in the historical areas, the areas that didn't receive a lot of flooding. Unfortunately, with industry comes more people....people need housing, and the more housing and development, the more flooding we experience.

Where do you propose these displaced people move to? And if they do move, you have created more urban sprawl someplace else.

Thanks for your analysis guys.
StormW, shear charts are fine, but the best thing to do is just look at the satellite loops. This morning you can see the exposed center of 97L racing westward with the trade winds through the islands while blowoff cirrus over by the ABC islands has begun to shoot eastward. Bottom line is 97L is in trouble.
StormW....Five minutes after you look at an analysis everything has changed. Dr. M. is always in conflict with them also.
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
Hawkeyewx...That's what I'm seeing also! So much for all the favorable conditions. Things change fast. What we have seen here this morning shows that beautifully. I do not rely on shear forecasts. Just work the WV loops.


Randrewl I really don't think much changed. That high shear has been there all along. I still have no clue what the NHC was talking about with their favorable conditions, other than trying to get attention because the chance remains decent for a strong cyclone to form. I do agree the shear forecsts should be taken with a grain of salt.
I shal shut it....

hmmm.. isnt 97 looking pretty today..errrmmm
stormw...maybe you should start your own weather blog. The doctor has spoken, wind shear light for the next 5 days. Got to met school or something.
vortextrance...What I saw this morning was much higher shear further south than it was expected to be....we're seeing that now. You're right....there's still plenty of shear to deal with.
Are the links I posted working...anyone? I'm about to punt this computer out the window.
StormW...That's the truth. But at the time what else do you have to work with? Till you can actually see it working it is just a forecast.
Posted By: cajunkid at 9:35 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
Are the links I posted working...anyone? I'm about to punt this computer out the window.


When you do your links you made an error.

http://http//www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat_pages/single/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/vis_ir_background/goes/Latest.html

you put http twice. thats y the link no workie. Just FYI
StormW...I see a 2:34 post...is that it?
not working... cajunkid
97L is smaller, but convection continues to flare.
GulfScotsman Andrew was the best example of resurrection.

You wouldnt have any sat pics of that happening would ya?
Probably shouldn't say this but I come here everyday to read the blog and find out what is going on with the weather. However, more and more I see many comments that are not weather related (just as this is). It takes up space, time and engery. I know there is a chat site associated with this so why don't the folks who want to discuss what happened to them during a storm go there and talk about it? By the way I live on the Gulf Coast of Fl and have been through several hurricanes. It just gets old seeing the bickering. I would also like to add that I most enjoy Gulfscotsman posts. He sticks to the subject and does is research. There are several others that I also enjoy reading their comments. So please stick the the weather.
no the links are not working
Storm Re-post I'm not finding it.
Cajun try the preview button. You can test them to see if they work.
Dr Master's thanks for the update and will be watching this wave over the next few days very carefully!!!
Hey StormW - people giving you heat today? Want me to beat em up for you? ;)
StormW - hey man. might you have some links to shear forecasts? thx
Rapid stormw has informative posts. Many on here disagree with the Dr's analysis this morning. That doesn't mean he is wrong, but there isn't anything wrong with having a different opinion.
StormW....OK.....I know personally how well you have done here this season. That's all that matters to me. Keep up the good work!
Can you see me now?
Looking at 97L....where the heck is the COC? Cant't see anything from the loops.
is that an exposed low level vortex at 12.5N61.4W ??Link
I guess no TD today as earlier thought.
No problem, I'm sure he's STORMPOT's brother or something. I have my own "favorites", Stormw is not on that list.
nash28....Morning. Yep, doesn't look like a TD situation yet does it? Should be an interesting day.
Link
now here is a good color loop...thanks whirlwind...I clicked link twice and didn't even look at the whole thing...stupid stupid stupid...more coffee
Ok StormW and Randrewl, what are your intensity forecast for 97L? I think Dr Masters has the right idea and is accurate in the track. Link
Let's put it this way StormW - I am going to listen to what you tell me...you say "pack and leave", I'm packing and leaving. BTW - I apprediate all the help that you've given me trying to understand hurricanes and storms as well as putting me on your daily forecast from your WORK AT THE STORM CENTER.
MamaWolf:

GulScotsman does not always stick to the subject of weather......often, when things get boring we sing songs, or make up songs.

To be honest, I'm tired of people posting what we should and should not discuss.
where's 97L going?
cajunkid....Just check the CMC.
Hel-lo Venezuela. Let's hope the coast of South America does a number on this thing. If it does develop and turn north, it could bring some pretty bad flooding to Hispanola or other islands even if it is only a TS.
I personally hope that the storms continue to stay away, die, or get shoved out to sea. The entire Gulf Coast and E.Coast of FL could really use an uneventful year or two. I was working in Melbourne for three weeks in July and there is still a lot of work to do there to recover from 2004.

That being said, I will be the first to officially wishcast 97L into the northern coast of SA as nothing more than it is right now.

Question for SOMEONE to answer-

I keep reading how the Saharan dust keeps impeding storm intensification this Summer. Is this the norm or an unusual year for this and is this cloud of dust visible by satellite imagery? Is this what I'm seeing when I look at a loop of the central Atlantic? As the frames move, I see a brighter area south of the Cape Verde Island that sweeps across just north of South America and through the Lesser Antilles.
I think some folks have been eating "grouchy sandwiches" for lunch today...
Looks like the circulation center is farther north than previously thought.
it is human nature to want to share thoughts,etc on the subject at hand. weather. so every now and again someone gets off subject, wow what a crime. sorry but people that complain really get on my nerves. just go with flow.
Hi!
I really don't know anything about weather or hurricanes but I do know that I am supposed to be leaving for Varadero, Cuba on Saturday. I would love it if someone could tell me whether or not I should cancel my trip since I really don't understand much of this stuff. I would appreciate any advice.
has anyone taken a look at the zoom of the link attached to my post of 2:48gmt ??

If the COC is where I think it is then this system is already pretty far N and shear will likely do a number on it over the next 2 days
The best way to see the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is dry and dusty, is on the water vapor loop of a satellite. What you will see is not the dust itself but the extremely dry air (dark colors) accompanying it.
StormW - thanks man. funny..I always use that for tracks but never noticed the shear forecasts..duh..

so it does appear shear will lessen up alot in the carrib.


Gulfscotsman- heres a link to historical facts and such on Andrew. Link

It has some interesting stuff. check it out
lyon , no kidding...dennis and ivan killed our tourism and real estate business ..... houses falling onto a beach tend to do that
Posted By: CCanuck at 2:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
Hi!
I really don't know anything about weather or hurricanes but I do know that I am supposed to be leaving for Varadero, Cuba on Saturday. I would love it if someone could tell me whether or not I should cancel my trip since I really don't understand much of this stuff. I would appreciate any advice.


Dr. M has some good advice on that question in his blog today.
Look at the winds at Barbados

10:15 AM 78.8 F / 26.0 C Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa
Winds: ESE 28.8 mph / 46.3 km/h
Gusts: 50.6 mph / 81.5 km/h
Conditions: Rain Heavy Rain
Randrewl, I hope the cmc is wrong!
I like my "grouchy sandwiches" with a side of sour grapes.

What the heck did I do with my coffee?
I guess the fact that this is a Weather Blog doesnt' mean anything...Guess I misunderstood the purpose of this site. Sorry....
kmanislander...Well, you can't miss that exposed COC can you. It is north and it doesn't look to be doing much in the convection process while it is exposing itself like this!
Hey Robin, how did you fare through the storms yesterday?

Our lawn got a little drink, but nothing spectacular.
hey cyclogenesis

r u thinking 12.5N61.4W for the COC ??
cajunkid ...I certainly do also!
Randrewl, Sorry, Not to prove you wrong, but for the people at home.
27windows-my lawn got a good drenching. and 5 miles away at my job not a drop. and then tues night we had a good soaking too. my impatients are loving it. they were looking very august burnt.
Gusts to 50mph..wow
Wants-to-be-Ernesto probably won't make it past the Venezuelan coast, methinks.

Oh well, maybe next blob...
I'm not relying on the CMC intensity forecast....at least not right now. I just feel it is accurate on where it picks something up. Off Colombia.
randrewL

now that we have an exposed COC does that bring an end to the debate as to whether or not there is a LLC ??

lol
MamaWolf - It's okay. We generally stay in or around the topic of tropical weather, and we also typically police the blog to chase away extreme digressions - mostly inappropriate political banter. But the occassional "Go Southern Miss!" (shameless plug) is acceptable.
LOL!
mama ....... relax .... you gain info here ..... the avg person won't hear about 97L until next week
..my omelete was great..Looks like maybe..just an obs,,that 97L may have ingested some Continental dreir air off the S. American land mass this early am b-4 sunrise,...Notice the dry inflow pattern to the se of the CoC..believe that may have inhibited the system some..but I look for it to re-fire a daylight Sun angle increases...
97L is looking healthy. The flaring is increasing.
Robin, from what I can gather, we are to expect a lot more of those "tropical" showers, as we are in between two highs. Seems that those highs are usually what saves us from being hit by hurricanes.

Hopefully 97L will fizzle away, and our very ripe and ready GOM will not get a chance to develop anything.
man, you guys are fast this morning. I might need to log off. Link
Posted By: StormW at 2:59 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
Whirlwind,
IRT shear: depending on which model you believe. Thing to do is look at a current analysis shear map, and see which model is the closest on the current analysis. Doesn't work all the time...but it's a starting point.


I believe this to be the best approach as well. That's what I did yesterday to forecast the current situation.
Noob question: What is the typical threshold for unfavorable wind shear? At what point can a developing system shake it off?
to me it looks like a small arrea of convection is beginning to wrap the coc on the North side - my 2 pennies
I was looking at some models for 97L. Is the CLP5 the Canadian model?
littlefish i dont know where you are looking but 97L is looking poor to me


shear north and west seems awefully high.... certainly too high for any significant developmnt.....
Mama, pretend you're in a restaurant and everyone is talking at the same time. If someone writes something you don't want to hear, then just pass on that one and go to somebody else...It's the www: WorldWideWeb.

Back to the tropics, somebody posted Charlie's track yesterday...Don't know about the shear for that one, but maybe you techies could do some research?
north side sure appears to be getting hit by pretty good shear
27windows yes we have good chance thru sunday from what i can tell and i wanted to go camping,gulf fishing this weekend so badly. going to look at weather forecast for corpus area and see if can risk it. but it can rain all weekend i dont care.
,the GOMULL has been a persistant bugger to shake..its now kicking up some T-storms along the SE Coast of La,Miss...bringing welcomed N winds to the S Shore of lake Ponchatrain...nice.
226. emtkz
Looks like Northern Half of 97L is only part that now has a chance.

Link

Any Thoughts?
227. K8e1
can anyone tell me if theres something forming off the SC coast? SJ are you on here? or Thelmores? One of the models alluded to it think it was the GFS
low level circulation just south of St. Vincent a
230. K8e1
i have a bad feeling about 97
gulf coast watch out
MamaWolf, You have apoint about what this site is supposed to be. But on the slower days I do not have an issue of GulfScot singing, Patrap reminiscing (spelling?), or anyone else keeping it light. What is really disruptive is the petty arguments about who is right and who is wrong.
Storm W you have mail
234. K8e1
can anyone tell me if theres something forming off the SC coast? SJ are you on here? or Thelmores? One of the models alluded to it think it was the GFS
"97L is looking healthy. The flaring is increasing"

inbelievable how people can look at the same thing, yet come to different conclusions..... the ONLY thing i see atm, is lots of shear...... thus little or slow development at best......
StormW...Yeah You're welcome. I've gotta run...meahwhile Gulf is on the right track...watch that eastern side for another COC.
GulfScotsman:Glad to see you on here this morning. Really enjoy your posts.You remind me so much of one of my all-time-favorie authors who said "the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to funtion" Your comments really so stimulate the mind. Thank You"
Tropical Storm Debby: 11AM EST Thur., Aug24
Position: 20.4N 37.8W
12hr Movement: 1.6N 3.1W
Movement: WNW 20mph
Pressure: 1000mb, 29.53inches
Winds: 50mph
Status: Hurricane within 48 hours. 75% chance.
Path/Time: E United States by Wednesday, August 30th
Watches/Warnings: None




97L: 11PM EST Wed, Aug23
Position: 12.3N 60.5W
12hr Movement: 0.4N 4.1W
Movement: W +/- 25mph
Pressure: n/a
Winds: +/- 20-30knots
Status: TD within 5 days. 80% chance.
Path/Time: Honduras/Nicaragua Border by Sunday, August 27th
Belize by Monday, August 28th
Southern Mexico by Tuesday, August 29th
Watches/Warnings: None


..antidisestablishmentariism...er is that better....?...LOL...
Interesting link emtkz. What do you guys think? Is it crash diving into the coastline? Or will it be like Chris and keep on keepin' on?
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 3:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
observance of the long loop IR/VIS sat suggests that 97L is a classic wave with multiple vortex lows (screaming eagle) - none of which is the final home for TD formation. The exposed circulation over the Antillies is NOT - in my opinion the primary focus.

I anticipate a large burst of convection to form along the trailing edge of the wave - and this has started already. That is where a likely vortex that creates a TD will come from.


Good obs Gulf. That is an impressive flare up to the east of the exposed coc. If that area does take over there should be more room from the shear, but not a lot. I will be interested to see the updated cimss. It appears the shear has slacked some over the main convection area.
.The mind is a not a vessel to be filled..but a fire to be lit...
the gfdl and gfs are shot to hell right now ...what gives...StormW, put me on your update from the storm center
244. K8e1
THELMORES or StormJunkie if youre here
see my question
itll go north if it intesifies, stay south if shear and saharan air keep it under wraps
97L looks like it could be big trouble in the next couple days. Watch out!
we'll know a lot more by tonight
For as big and ugly as these can get, they sure may start off fragile... 97L looks pretty impressive, just a bit of dry air cracking in through the westerly side but otherwise looks like TD5.
K8, for now there is just a cold front n place.... but as the trough pulls away in a day or two, you "could" get a cutoff low..... which could gain some tropical characteristics..... but imho is not much to worry about...... the upper level winds dont look to favorable, 20-30knots of shear atm..... just keep an eye in the next 24-36hrs....
252. K8e1
DID ANYONE SEE MY QUESTION?
littlefish, you must have a closed surface circulation for a tropical depression.... we don't have that.... and with the shear as high as it is.... doesnt look likely for the short term......
255. K8e1
ooops sorry
thanks thelmores
i'm in wilmington
Anybody have latest mbar reading for 97L? Are there any buoys out there?
257. K8e1
thanks stormw
you can answer my questions anytime
off to work everyone. i will check site during the day to see what is transpiring..StormW and Gulf keep it sane in here! lol

..will get more concerned only if 97L reaches the Yucatan/Cuba area with a Northerly component and a named storm..all the invests runs determine that this may be the case..but..High GOM SSts and low shear could come into serious play if the intensity & forecast movement pans out...end of line ..Off to feed Shrimp to the Trout..or Flounder..or croakers...
260. K8e1
97 l is spooking me
seen too many like him
NEWBIE QUESTION
Can deep convection to the south of 97L prevent shear from reaching the coc?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 955
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS IN
SQUALLS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THE WAVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
another good site Link
I see no evidence of any other vortices besides the one moving between St. Vincent and Grenada right now. Barbados has a strong ese wind, St. Vincent a strong east wind, Tobago a ssw wind, and Grenada a weak sw wind. The exposed vortex we can all see on satellite is the main and only center.
Posted By: Interpolator at 3:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
NEWBIE QUESTION
Can deep convection to the south of 97L prevent shear from reaching the coc?


No. Shear is like a knife thats cuts the tops of convection.
Posted By: Tannim at 10:08 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
MamaWolf, You have apoint about what this site is supposed to be. But on the slower days I do not have an issue of GulfScot singing, Patrap reminiscing (spelling?), or anyone else keeping it light. What is really disruptive is the petty arguments about who is right and who is wrong.


But they can't stop!! LOL It makes everyone else feel superior.
Slap me with a wet noodle as one who doesn't know anything and doesn't pretend to. I know hurricanes come from the SE someplace but as far as the nuances I am a babe and really appreciate this site as canes are REALLY affecting my life now. Wanna say thanks before things get crazy IF they do, I think the opposing viewpoints sometimes prove valuable. no tounge in cheek.
Terry
So, moving on...I'm kind of nervous about that cluster underneath "Debby" and the wave that's come off Africa. They're going to be trouble, I can sense it.
agreed hawk.....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT."

so recon is still on???? and what is this "potential" that the nhc see's????? anybody???
Thanks Hawkeye. I haven't seen you on much this year, but I remember you being one of the most infromed during last season.
The voices...the constant chatter of repeating mantras, catch phrases, and competing theories. One voice of the cartoon character talking too slow and others of voices heard long ago. All to the climax of just one conclusion. "Um, yes..I would like a cheeseburger please."

Just for you, Gulf ;-)
GulfScotsman, I like when the crack appears behind a beauty in the shadow of my noble bird.
Posted By: vortextrance at 3:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
Posted By: Interpolator at 3:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
NEWBIE QUESTION
Can deep convection to the south of 97L prevent shear from reaching the coc?

No. Shear is like a knife thats cuts the tops of convection.

But isn't there a strong anticyclonic activity or whatever on top of 97L that they (NHC) think will thwart the shear or most of it?? No site I think I heard about the anticylonic on this one on here?
Terry
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 11.5N 59.0W
E. 24/1600Z TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 25/1800Z
NEAR 13N AND 64W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Summer Plan Winter Plan
A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
F. Altitude(s) on Station
G. Remarks (if needed)
A. Track/Control Point/Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Drops Required/Added Positions
E. Altitude/Expiration Time
F. Remarks (if needed)


so if the HH's are going, they should soon take off???
thelmores, I bet they don't go till tomorrow
recon is a go, plane is about to take off from st. croix....
It's in the air right now.
Hi everyone,

First chance to check in this morning on any tropical news, models, etc..

I know 97 is way out but, holy smokes, I don't like the latest CMC model at 144 hrs. That's Rita all over again. Geez!

But again, it's way out. :)
Where are ya'll getting the info on the HH plane?
Link Live recon reports updated every 10 minutes.
I stand corrected. This might get interesting. Thanks thelmores
well, once the HH'S get on station, guess we'll have alot more answers....

i suspect we have winds to supprt TD5.... but i have my doubts we will get a closed surface feature.....

guess we'll know soon! :)
Given that the early phases of cyclogenesis are the least well understood and are poorly predicted by the models, I would think the HH would fly quite often into questionable invests. The more accurate information should better seed the next model runs and the route flexibility should provide the ability to garner more precise data that is invisible to other means. All of this should facilitate better predictions.

Am I wrong?
Zap
Hello. I think 97L looks great and is looking better by the minute. Of course, I don't know anything. Can someone please tell me why I'm so wrong?
It's in the air right now.

I'm very eager to see how their findings affect the outlook.
Recon is go. I'd say there's a 90% chance of TS Ernesto by tomorrow.
it looks like a LLC is reforming near 13N61W
294. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 10:49 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
it looks like a LLC is reforming near 13N61W


It looks better now than it did a couple of hours ago.
yellow bird
high in a tree
this need not be
why, so many lasses
like fish in the sea
Hmmmmmmmmmm St. Croix......can't be more than a two hour flight to 97L...does anyone know for certain?
Posted By: thelmores at 3:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
well, once the HH'S get on station, guess we'll have alot more answers....

i suspect we have winds to supprt TD5.... but i have my doubts we will get a closed surface feature.....

guess we'll know soon! :)


Agree. I don't see one forming by the time they get there, but obs are always get to have.
The counter-clockwise circulation south off the coast of New Orleans for the past day or so -- is that an UPPER level low? Can an upper level low ever spawn a tropical storm/hurricane?

Thanks.
If you want my opinion, I think the recon will find a newly born TD when they get there. The winds sure aren't a problem, and the circulation is closing if not closed already. Look for reformation of the center to the east.
301. IKE
Posted By: EcoTulane at 10:52 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
The counter-clockwise circulation south off the coast of New Orleans for the past day or so -- is that an UPPER level low? Can an upper level low ever spawn a tropical storm/hurricane?

Thanks.


Yes it's a ULL and yes to your 2nd question..but it doesn't happen often.

It appears to be diving WSW.
Is there any theory as to what determines the initial size of a disturbance as it organizes? Why do some start very small, while other are large from the outset?



From the high-pitched prognosticator:

Energy is contagious
Enthusiasm spreads
Tides respond to lunar gravitation
Everything turns in synchronous relation

Hawkeye was going by current obs. Meaning one hadn't formed yet. There is no reason to think a new center can't form, it happens all the time. It will have to happen if 97L is going to survive.
304. IKE
I'll say they find a TD too.

TD5 will be beon.
"PLANT GONE!!!!!"

thought you were talking about cannibas or something! LOL
306. IKE
*born*
Posted By: EcoTulane at 3:50 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
The counter-clockwise circulation south off the coast of New Orleans for the past day or so -- is that an UPPER level low? Can an upper level low ever spawn a tropical storm/hurricane?

Thanks.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oooooooooo Oooooooooooo Lemme try to answer, ok?

From what I have learned on here, and these brilliant minds have taught me well, a ULL can become a LLC but it takes a long, long time and it's very unlikely to develop anyway.

Did I answer correctly? If not forgive me and ignore this post, but please don't ignore my off topic, humorous posts.
97L: 11AM EST Thur., Aug24
Position: 12.3N 60.5W
12hr Movement: 0.4N 4.1W
Movement: W +/- 20mph
Pressure: n/a
Winds: +/- 30-40knots
Status: TD within 3 days. 80% chance.
Path/Time: Jamaica by Saturday, August 26th
Southern Mexico Tip by Monday, August 28th
E Mexico by Wednesday, August 30th
Watches/Warnings: None


Deviating from weather a bit...please note that Pluto has been stripped of planetary status and world oil prices are higher today, as there is a problem with a BP pump compressor
somewhere along the Alaska pipeline. If another one of those goes out, it's like $5 per gallon immediately!!!
We are experiencing heavy rain and consistance winds of 30mph
Afternoon all...

thel, I am suprised that you are not drawing little swirly things from the Charleston radar....Area just E of Hilton Head...

So anyone think the GFS is on to anything off the E Coast?
Where do you guys, calling for TD5, think the llc is closed at?
315. IKE
Posted By: barbadosjulie at 10:58 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
We are experiencing heavy rain and consistance winds of 30mph


I see from the hourly obs the winds are SE at over 30. Pressure has risen from earlier today.
the HH's may not find a TD when they arrive, but could possible have one develop while on station..... wouldnt that be interesting! :)
You can see the "center" just north of Greneda. I think it will reform east though. Watch for that reformation it could be a big step in its development.
319. IKE
Around 12N, 60W...

Hey I'm an amateur...if I'm wrong..I'm wrong.
Good Afternoon All
Right now the vortex center is at 12.6n 61.8w
97L INvest

prbly more like 13, 61 after the latest pass
Hello 456!
Ike

the suspected center near 13n would explain the strond band of thundershoers draped across Barbados from the SSE
SJ..... just don't see much tropical....YET! LOL

ya'll flooded down there???




guess we'll have to see if this "feature" develops into anything besides one heck of a rainstorm!!!
Hey we need some rain in Central Florida...Are we going to get any?
seabreeze is on its way from the west today, weatherbyrd, rain in a few hours
And is 97L going to turn into a hurricane?
330. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 11:05 AM CDT on August 24, 2006.
Ike

the suspected center near 13n would explain the strond band of thundershoers draped across Barbados from the SSE


Yo bud.....
We are all wrong sometimes IKE. I agree with you and Gulf that soemthing might be trying reform there. I doubt it happens quick enough to be a depression by this afternoon, but I am also an amatuer.
Awesome! The sun gets old after a while...lol
maybe even 1 hour
hey SJ.... looks like some spin off charleston as well.....
Can someone tell me how long we should should continue seeing the effects of 9L here in Barbados, i have something planed for tonight and i need to know if to cancell it
all signs point to yes on a hurricane for the moment, doubtful to be a TD until later on this evening
On the water vapor loop, you can see how 97L is pushing all that Saharan dust in front of it. This may be the primary reason why we're not yet seeing a closed circulation. A CC may take another day or so to form IMO.
Hello all from soggy Charleston SC...

Over 4" of rain fell here in the past couple of hours..

Waist deep water on down town streets...





well well well...still looks like GOM is the target
That is the most continous raind we have seen in quite some time thel. rained from about 8 to noon...Heavy too. You circled the correct area, now look at the radar loop....Looks minutely interesting...

Charleston Radar....Animate it and look at the area thel circled.
Oops forgot the Link
BarbadosJulie you will get about another 12 hours of thunderstorms before it's over. The winds might let up a little bit here soon, but not much until you're out of it. As for if you cancel your plans, that's for you to decide based on the weather outside. This is no hurricane, and unless it's REALLY BAD, I don't see why you should cancel anything.
barbados should calm down within the next 24-36 hours
Link

click on "interactive" for 97L and say hmmmmm
Out of all the computer models which one seems to be right more times then the rest? I've heard the GFDL is the most accurate is this true?
Waist 459? I knew it had to be bad down there, but good lord. I am over by Duncan's boat harbor now. Is it high tide also?
well according to what I just posted, all models look to be agreeing on a GOM track
The Canadian model has 97L as hurricane in the gulf next week. Love you guys in Florida and Texas but I don't think we could take another one in La. right now.
WB, it varies from system to sytem, and I prefer the GFDL on well defined tropical systems, but sometimes it struggles with the weaker ones and invests....
I have to go now. Later everyone!
whats going on stormjunkie, levi

whew i was worried we would have a td by now...it was looking good last night.
And what does Canada know about hurricanes anyway?
Tide is turning ..going out..

buy a paper tomorrow you may see me ..

A reporter took some pictures of me pushing a van out of the street..King &Huger St..
I don't think any model does all that well with invests...it's kinda like predicting who's gonna win the super bowl before the season starts. you don't even really know who's gonna make the playoffs but you are trying to predict the super bowl.
its still lookin good bama, strong winds and starting to show signs of closing up
Looking for the best models? You can find most of the here. Using the first link in the model list, set the field to 850mb vorticity on model run you want to see and click animate. Then scroll right and click forward through the model. Note that the GFDL field must be set to surface pressure.
we might be about to witness a monster
And by the was, don't send the hurricanes to Florida. It is not our fault you live in a city below sea level!
Good afternoon guys...lets see what recon finds.
yea i just noticed that the convection is starting to flare up on the southwest side of area...looks like its pulling this convection in to wrap around the north side.


It was dark all around
There was frost in the ground
When the tigers broke free
And no one survived from the Royal Fusiliers, Company C

Stormjunkie you got too much going on.
is the recon flying there yet...what is the eta for them to reach the system?
yep, im out to lunch, we'll see action this evening or tonight for sure
does anyone know when we will know something from recon?
stormjunkie your site is pretty cool. What do you do for a living?
During reconnaissance of tropical system INVEST a maximum wind speed of 41 mph, at 9882 feet, was found by the government plane.

16:07:30 13.36 -62.5 8180 62 41 41 55 41

15 minutes ago....
Does Jeff Masters ever get on here and chat?
"Does Jeff Masters ever get on here and chat?"

not really, but he will "break in" sometimes and add or correct some information/ misinformation


Hi emagirl!
Looks to me like shear is really affecting 97L right now.
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 4:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
we might be about to witness a monster


Calm down Story, everyone is fine for now, just keep an eye on it.

On that note, I can not believe that I can not get anyone to bite on the area off the E coast....

Got to get back to work. See ya'll later.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. You can find some of the best free weather data available on the web from here.
it is jp...im looking at it right now and it is changing everytime i reload the page.
we have a TS?
well then does that mean it is a TD
Kind of a gaping hole opening up near center of 97L. Lots of convection, just nor in the right area...
The Caribbean going to erupt into Storm making machine now....
hi WeatherByrd
16:09:00 13.23 -62.53 3501 52 36 37 67 64

36 kts at 3501 feet...what does that equal at the surface?
WB, I work in a manufacturing plant because I do not have the time, money, or education to do what I would like to...lol.

I hope to bring more functionality to the site over this winter, but it will always serve the main purpose of being a portal to great FREE weather info.

Thanks for the props! :)
SJ
Ok help me out here for just a minute. I'm new. Shear is where the wind direction is defferent from the upper levels and the lower levels?
"On that note, I can not believe that I can not get anyone to bite on the area off the E coast...."

i bit, i bit! LOL

I'LL BE WATCHIN! ;)
what is "flight level"? I noticed that they dipped down from an altitude of 19000 to about 3500....so which one would I look at for the 15% decrease?
Dr. M comes on here once-in-awhile to chat. Usually when things are changing or things are heating up regarding tropical systems. He'll have an update on the reconn this afternoon per his earlier update. Looks like 97L has a fat donut hole in the middle where convection should be for a developnig system. Good convection outside that area though...
The storm on the East coast had like 3 minutes to do something before it hits land.
JP its a combination of both features right now.
672
SXXX50 KNHC 241617
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 09 KNHC
1609. 1312N 06233W 00690 0021 049 027 216 216 028 00733 0000000000
1610 1309N 06233W 00463 0001 050 022 238 238 024 00482 0000000100
1610. 1308N 06231W 00396 5001 050 020 244 244 021 00406 0000000100
1611 1307N 06230W 00316 5007 050 022 252 252 025 00320 0000000100
1611. 1306N 06228W 00305 5009 051 026 256 256 027 00307 0000000100
1612 1306N 06226W 00306 5010 050 028 256 256 029 00307 0000000100
1612. 1306N 06225W 00300 5010 048 027 256 228 027 00300 0000000000
1613 1305N 06223W 00306 5011 045 028 252 228 030 00306 0000000000
1613. 1304N 06222W 00310 5012 035 024 246 232 025 00309 0000000000
1614 1303N 06221W 00310 5013 035 026 246 228 027 00308 0000000000
1614. 1301N 06220W 00307 5012 037 027 246 224 027 00305 0000000000
1615 1259N 06219W 00301 5013 038 026 246 224 026 00298 0000000000
1615. 1257N 06218W 00305 5014 039 025 248 216 026 00302 0000000000
1616 1256N 06216W 00305 5014 034 024 246 226 025 00301 0000000000
1616. 1254N 06215W 00305 5014 034 024 246 228 024 00302 0000000000
1617 1252N 06214W 00304 5014 031 022 246 232 023 00300 0000000000
1617. 1251N 06213W 00305 5015 028 020 246 236 020 00300 0000000000
1618 1249N 06212W 00305 5015 028 019 250 234 019 00300 0000000000
1618. 1247N 06211W 00305 5015 029 019 250 236 019 00300 0000000000
1619 1246N 06210W 00305 5016 031 017 248 238 017 00300 0000000000
here is an update from the flight

During reconnaissance of tropical system INVEST a maximum sustained wind speed of 32 mph at 1004 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 34 mph at 1004 feet, were found by the government plane.
Have ya'll seen Dr M's update?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
Looks to me like shear is really affecting 97L right now.


I'm not sure if the sheer is affecting it that much. It may be the Saharan dust to 97L's west.
oh sweet link thelmores!!
WB, the E coast area is currently moving away from land, but the GFS hints at it getting pushed back in a couple of days.
so on the flight...what are we watching besides wind speed. Cant something be told about a storm from the temps and dew points aswell?
It looks like it starting to get some wrap around the center, somewhat. Anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
it sort of looks to me like the surface rotation seen by the visible satellite is trying to race away from the convection.

Link
New Blog is up!!!
For some reason I just have the feeling that 97L will be getting really big. Scientific data aside, anyone else feel the same thing?
fran1983 at 4:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2006.
It looks like it starting to get some wrap around the center, somewhat. Anybody else see this?


Definitely. I believe it's main impediment may be the dust to it's west. Link
(Guys here is a close visible pic of 97L)





Every time I get excited about a tropical system like Wants-to-be-Ernesto (97L), they go poof or otherwise go somewhere else.

So I'm adopting an unreasonably and reflexively knee-jerk skeptical stance on every system for the rest of this year. Starting with this pathetic, useless, wimpy, going-to-get-blown-apart blob.

Wants-to-be-Ernesto is going to fizz away, and if it doesn't, it's going to whiz by the West or North gulf states as a passing drizzle, and miss Tampa altogether.

That's not a forecast, that's a prediction!

;)
Guys i think 97L will be a short lived system as there is between 25-30kts of shear to west of this mess.SEE HERE
Atlantic Today
The large continental Upper Level High (ULH), that was centered over the USA has broken into two centered areas, due to a 200mb polar trough. The first one is centered over Northern Texas, the other centered over Florida.
On the Eastern periphery of the latter high is an elongated Upper Level trough, extending from the North Central Atlantic, southwestward towards the Central Bahamas. There are two upper level lows located along the trough, at 35N and 22N. The one at 22N is producing numerous showers over the South central Bahamas Islands.

There is an upper level low located south of New Orleans, Louisiana, along the ULH over Florida is helping to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms cross the entire Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast States and Eastern Mexico.

The Eastern Caribbean Sea is dominated by Upper Level Ridging in associated with a large Upper Level High centered east of Trinidad. The NW quadrant of the ULH and some SE flow extending from the Upper Level trough near the Bahamas is generating strong wind shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and, just north and east of the Islands. This high is moving in the general direction of 97L, helping to create Upper Air divergence and low wind shear around the area of 97L.

A tropical wave is inland over Central America and another is the South Caribbean Sea, south of Haiti, moving west.

A central Atlantic Tropical Wave (97) accompanied by an area of low pressure (1009mbars), with its axis along the ITCZ at 60W, has increased in shower activity and organization today. The wave is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados.

Discussion of 97L
The Upper Air atmosphere is quite favorable for development, with Upper Level Water Vapor and Upper Air Divergence both favorable.

There is some strong Upper Level Winds north of 97L, that forecast to decrease as the ULH moves NW.

Future of 97L
If 97L will continue to move WNW, into the SE Caribbean Sea into more favorable environment, as dry air decreases into the Caribbean Sea.

Surface Observations
Sea Surface Temperatures are above 80 degrees in the area.

Waves are 5-10 feet approaching the Windward Islands.

Buoys/Ships
Bouy C6EN4, located in the SE Caribbean Sea, measured a central pressure of 1012.5mbars and winds from the NE at 20knots.

Land-Based Stations at 12PMAST
POINT, Grenada (TGPY)
Pressure:1010mbars
Winds: SSW at 4m/s

CROWN, Trinidad and Tobago (TTCP)
Pressure: 1010.8mbars
Winds: SSW at 6m/s

Grantley Adams, Barbados
Pressure: 1012mbars
Winds: SE at 44km/h.

A subtropical surface high is located SE of Bermuda, at 30N/57W, with surface ridging seen all the way to the SE United States. This will be help steering 97L to the NW in time.

At 11amAST, Tropical Storm Debby was located 20.4N, 37.8W, in the open Atlantic. The tropical storm is moving WNW at 19mph. Debby has winds of 50mph and a central pressure of 1000mbars. It is forecast to continue moving WNW around a ridge (associated with a stronger High in the North Atlantic) then NW as the ridge is weakened by a Central Atlantic Upper Level trough. Debby could become the seasons first Hurricane.

By Weather456
What time is recon flying this beast?
alaina1085, right now.
OMG! Is that an eye forming in 97L?
well i am gone to lunch i will catch up with you guys in an hour
there is no eye...lol...if anything 97L has a steep uphill battle...look at the dry air Link