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Strengthening Tomas headed for the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 AM GMT on October 30, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas has exploded into existence in spectacular fashion, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this amazingly active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. I'm reporting to you live from the National Hurricane Center tonight, where forecasters are working hard to stay abreast of Tomas' intensification. Three hurricane specialists are on duty tonight--Dave Roberts, who is handling Tropical Storm Shary, and Robbie Berg and Dan Brown, who are focusing on Tomas. The Hurricane Hunters have just left Tomas, as of 8pm EDT, and they found a significant increase in winds. Winds at their 1500 foot flight level were 70 mph, and surface winds as measured by the SFMR instrument were near 60 mph. This supports an increase in Tomas' winds to 60 mph in tonight's 8pm EDT public advisory. Since this is such a large increase in intensity from what was forecast--Tomas was not supposed to have 60 mph winds for another 24 hours--this necessitates issuance of a special advisory package. A full set of forecast maps, a marine advisory, wind probability forecast, and a discussion just went out to the world. While all this was occurring, several phone calls to Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique were made, alerting the islands to the fact that a Hurricane Warning may be required with the 11pm advisory tonight. NHC has both French speaking and Spanish speaking meteorologists on staff that can coordinate with the islands that don't have English as their main language. I listened in on a 5-minute conversation in French between the weather service in Martinique and NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek, as they discussed when Martinique may want to issue a Hurricane Warning.


Figure 1. Warren VonWerne (right) of CARCAH presents the latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters to hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
The forecasters at NHC are puzzling over the latest intensity forecasts for Tomas. The latest intensity forecast from the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models are not that impressive, and they keep Tomas as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane for the next five days. The wind shear forecast from SHIPS is particularly odd--the latest 18Z forecast predicts high wind shear of 20+ knots beginning Sunday morning, and the previous SHIPS forecast held wind shear below 15 knots for the next five days. The latest runs by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all show a very favorable environment for intensification over the next five days over the Caribbean, with Tomas positioning itself beneath an upper level high in a light wind shear environment. The best bet is that Tomas will intensify into a major hurricane over the Central Caribbean by early next week.


Figure 2. NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek discusses the latest intensity forecast for Tomas with the Martinique weather service (in French.) In the background, hurricane specialist Dave Roberts works on advisories for Tropical Storm Shary.

Track forecast for Tomas
After Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, there are two possible track scenarios depicted by the models--a continued westerly motion towards Nicaragua, or a sharp turn to the north, with a track over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. Steering currents will be weak, and we'll just have to wait and see how the steering currents evolve.

Tomas' formation location unprecedented this late in the season
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.

The formation of a tropical storm so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (60°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 60°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 60°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic Ocean on October 29. There have been only four hurricane seasons since 1851 that have had two simultaneous named storms later in the year. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

Next update
I'll have more late Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

pressure still dropping 993.1
992.8 still dropping
504. KBH
hey guys what's the latest on the location of centre of Tomas? is it still ESE or moving north?
A stunningly quick drop... where are you getting this information from, HuracandelCaribe?

Thank you for it, though.
Link, courtesy of Huracandel. :)
Link
992.1
when will it stop
Thank you both... I'll have to figure out how to convert that to millibars. :-)
i think wind shift is starting
Shary's a hurricane!
Quoting flibinite:
Thank you both... I'll have to figure out how to convert that to millibars. :-)


Random website, but should help you.
Link
Interesting NHC discussion on classifying Shary as a hurricane:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT. THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 33.6N 59.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 35.7N 54.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 48.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN
...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR
ON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL
MAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER
INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
SHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS...
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY
RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT TRMM PASS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS OUT...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF TOMAS...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY A
NORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH REMAIN
FARTHER SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW
DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE
POTENTIAL NORTHWARD TURN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 12.9N 59.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 61.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 14.1N 63.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 14.6N 65.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.1N 68.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.5N 71.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
the official pressure will be between 991 and 994
Between watching various links on Tomas, watching his pressure bomb out via HuracandelCaribe's updates (thanks!), and now gazing at Shary in amazement, because I really thought she couldn't do what she's doing... I'm staying up WAY TOO LATE! haha
This blog eats up a lot of my life during hurricane season. :)
0k 994
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Between watching various links on Tomas, watching his pressure bomb out via HuracandelCaribe's updates (thanks!), and now gazing at Shary in amazement, because I really thought she couldn't do what she's doing... I'm staying up WAY TOO LATE! haha
This blog eats up a lot of my life during hurricane season. :)


Likewise...it's addictive. Just one more advisory... :P
522. JLPR2
LOL! I came to check on Tomas and find out Shary is a cane? O.o LOL

That was the last thing I expected.
523. JLPR2
Well, back to bed. :]
Thanks Kori!!

All I got is WOW!!
Getting a bit of rain now and the mind stirrings of a gentle breeze.
can someone please post the link to the barbados radar - have looked everywhere - can't find it.
So we still in for another set of pounding...
528. JRRP
no puedo dormir sabiendo que hay un ciclon amenazandonos
529. SLU
Quoting barbadosjulie:
So we still in for another set of pounding...


Hi Julie. What is the situation with Tomas in Barbados? Any damage? How strong are the winds?
Slu...most of christ church power is out...the winds died down a bit but have now picked up again...I'm using my phone as I also have no electricity...reports are in that roofs are off and someone lost a verandah. Rain has subsided for now
531. JRRP

north
Julie stay safe.... good luck to your and your Island, my heart goes out to you.
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned northward to (8.9degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (4.5degrees north of) West NorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~19.3mph(~31.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~10mph(~16.1km/h)
Invest91L
29Oct 06amGMT - - 9.3n53.7w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
TropicalDepression21
29Oct 12pmGMT - 10.0n55.3w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
TS.Thomas
29Oct 06pmGMT - 10.8n56.8w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - - 998mb - ATCF
29Oct 09pmGMT - 11.1n57.5w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - . - 998mb - NHC.Adv.#1
30Oct 12amGMT - 11.6n57.6w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 999mb - NHC.Adv.#2
30Oct 03amGMT - 12.2n58.4w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3
30Oct 06amGMT - 12.4n58.8w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3A
30Oct 09amGMT - 12.9n59.5w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#4

Copy&paste 9.3n53.7w, 10.0n55.3w, 10.8n56.8w, 11.1n57.5w-11.6n57.6w, 11.6n57.6w-12.2n58.4w, 12.2n58.4w-12.4n58.8w, 12.4n58.8w-12.9n59.5w, bla, fdf, 12.9n59.5w-13.888n60.89w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straighline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5&1/2 hours from now to AnseCanot,St.Lucia

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Thanks Grenada
535. SLU
Quoting barbadosjulie:
Slu...most of christ church power is out...the winds died down a bit but have now picked up again...I'm using my phone as I also have no electricity...reports are in that roofs are off and someone lost a verandah. Rain has subsided for now


Ok. Stay safe. Part 2 of a hurricane is always the stronger phase and this should begin to affect you guys shortly. It looks like St. Lucia might get the brunt of the system though. I'm in Trinidad now which was initially threatened and persons here did take the warnings seriously enough. However, in St. Lucia, most people seem to be unaware of the situation that it developing this morning and very few if any preparations have been made. Worse yet, it's the annual Creole Day celebrations so many people are actually in a festive mood this weekend. It's basically too late to do anything now since the winds are beginning to increase there already and the radar shows that some awful weather is approaching.
People I spoke to hear were taking it pretty seriously but some had only heard about it yesterday afternoon so little time to prepare properly, of course in theory we should all be prepared the whole season but in reality lots thought it was all over for the year.
Thanks for the advice...my household ready, I just hope the others are.. :(
539. SLU
Quoting barbadosjulie:
Thanks for the advice...my household ready, I just hope the others are.. :(


I hope so too!
Thanks for the update at this late hour, Kori. You dah man! So to speak. :)
Ok, I'm gettin' punchy. I'm off to bed. Stay safe all of you in harm's way.
Good night guys. Stay safe all of you in the islands. And keep us updated!
This morning's random thought:

With Shary's improbable rise to hurricane status and the near certainty of Tomas' making it there, that will mean there have been five consecutive hurricanes beginning with Otto. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but a cursory glance shows that's a relatively infrequent occurrence, though not quite a rarity. It happened most recently in 1998 (six in a row, from Ivan through Nicole) and 2005 (Maria through Rita). There were also five consecutive hurricanes in the very active years of 1887 and 1933.

What sets 2010 apart from those other years, however, is that this year's five in a row took place in October, whereas the others were closer to the climatological "peak" of the season: 8/14-9/18 for 1887, 8/28—9/25 in 1933, 9/19—12/1 in 1998, and 9/2—9/24 in 2005. (Note that 1998's six took nearly two-and-a-half months to finish)

To summarize a key point: all five of this October's TCs became (or shortly will have become) hurricanes, and that appears to have never happened before (though I'll keep checking).
546. JRRP
Meow. Shary is a Hurricane? I thought she was going to dissipate?

Appears Tomas is moving a little more north than expected. I still don't think the models have a good handle on him just yet. Good thing we have competent forecasters on this. (and some incompetent ones keeping them in check)
Quoting Cat5hit:
Meow. Shary is a Hurricane? I thought she was going to dissipate?

Appears Tomas is moving a little more north than expected. I still don't think the models have a good handle on him just yet. Good thing we have competent forecasters on this. (and some incompetent ones keeping them in check)

OMG I don't have my glasses on and I read your name and said to myself "self how did wunderground allow such a name like catpoop on here".
back to weather, the models may not have a good read on Tomas but the NHC has shown time & time again this season to have a good read through the first 3 days at the least.
That being said things don't bode well for Haiti but it looks like Jamaica is in better shape than it was before but all of that is still over 5 days out.
hey 954FtLCanecan you post the link to that radar
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey 954FtLCanecan you post the link to that radar

Link
Here ya geaux!
I am beginning to think that I should change the handle...

A nail biter Tomas is...
Quoting Cat5hit:
I am beginning to think that I should change the handle...

A nail biter Tomas is...

Nah its a good name, as I mentioned I wasn't wearing my glasses. OK how about dog5hit?... lol.
553. JRRP
eye ???
13.3n
59.9w
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Nah its a good name, as I mentioned I wasn't wearing my glasses. OK how about dog5hit?... lol.


LOL... I got a bunch of that in the yard. Hopefully A storm doesn't come through otherwise it will spread throughout the neighborhood.
Quoting JRRP:
eye ???
13.3n
59.9w


Aye.
Hurricane Hunters just west of Saint Lucia heading SSE. Surface winds from the NE at 39mph
Quoting Cat5hit:


LOL... I got a bunch of that in the yard. Hopefully A storm doesn't come through otherwise it will spread throughout the neighborhood.
Link
Here's one for ya "cat poop causes hookworm epedemic on Miami Beach". The chamber of commerce will not be happy if they read this. This is an isolated area.
Tomas' first visible !!!
Nice and can't wait to see Tomas this morning... Should be an interesting day.
Severe wind and rain has began again...lots of trees down. Power out....
Good morning Tomas would you like a cup of coffee.
Quoting barbadosjulie:
Severe wind and rain has began again...lots of trees down. Power out....

wow, yeah we can see the eye has passed over and you are now to the east of it. In a way you are lucky that the storm is just ramping up. Thank your lucky stars! and stay safe. Things should get better soon!
562. mbjjm

Lots of roofs blown off in Barbados

Live radio from Barbados
563. JRRP
Quoting barbadosjulie:
Severe wind and rain has began again...lots of trees down. Power out....

eye wall
564. SLU
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, ( M. C. W. T. & P. U. )
************************************************************
HEWANORRA METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, VIEUX FORT, ST.LUCIA.
************************************************************

6:00 AM...DATE...OCTOBER 30, 2010...FORECASTER....HERBERT REGIS.

PRESENT WEATHER AT HEWANORRA.....OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN.
AT GFL CHARLES...OVERCAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS.
PRESENT TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA....25 C OR 77 F.
LAST NIGHT'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...24 C OR 76 F.
WIND AT HEWANORRA IS BLOWING FROM THE EAST AT 28 MPH OR
43 KM/H.
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDED AT 2:00 AM AT HEWANORRA.....13.5 MM.

SUNSET TODAY...5:42 PM.....SUNRISE TOMORROW.....6:02 AM.

WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHTS RECORDED 4 MILES OR 6 KM NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.
*******************************************************************
AVERAGE HEIGHT IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.......6.6 FEET OR 2.3 METRES.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.......12.9 FEET OR 3.9 METRES.

FORECAST FOR SAINT LUCIA VALID FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
*****************************************************
WINDS.....EASTERLY AT 18 TO 38 MPH? OR 29 TO 59 KM/H.
WEATHER...CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SEAS IN A 25 MILE OR 40 KM RADIUS FROM ST. LUCIA.
*********************************************************************
TIDES FOR CASTRIES HARBOUR....HIGH AT 9:02 AM...LOW AT 1:40 PM.
TIDES FOR VIEUX FORT BAY.....HIGH AT 10:09 AM...LOW AT 3:07 PM.
SEAS..ROUGH WITH WAVES 10 TO 12 FEET OR 3.0 TO 3.7 METRES. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.


OUTLOOK FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
********************************
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
*************************
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ARE BEING ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.

I think I will apply for a job at the local weather service. They are very poor in forecasting the weather and fail to adequately warn the public of the dangers that exists with these systems at times.
565. mbjjm
Barbados now reporting 56mph gusts,sustained 35mph

METAR TBPB 301100Z 18030G49KT 0500 RA BKN008CB BKN010 25/25 Q1001 NOSIG
Good Morning...

Interesting... HURR Shary.
All the weather stations in Barbados stopped transmitting data. The last one just stopped 4min ago.
568. JRRP
NGP 06Z
Link
similar to
another one behind tomas?
Hurricane hunters found a minimum pressure of 992mb so far in Tomas.
571. JRRP
guys Tomas's eye is shrinking on radar
Quoting Neapolitan:
This morning's random thought:

With Shary's improbable rise to hurricane status and the near certainty of Tomas' making it there, that will mean there have been five consecutive hurricanes beginning with Otto. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but a cursory glance shows that's a relatively infrequent occurrence, though not quite a rarity. It happened most recently in 1998 (six in a row, from Ivan through Nicole) and 2005 (Maria through Rita). There were also five consecutive hurricanes in the very active years of 1887 and 1933.

What sets 2010 apart from those other years, however, is that this year's five in a row took place in October, whereas the others were closer to the climatological "peak" of the season: 8/14-9/18 for 1887, 8/28—9/25 in 1933, 9/19—12/1 in 1998, and 9/2—9/24 in 2005. (Note that 1998's six took nearly two-and-a-half months to finish)

To summarize a key point: all five of this October's TCs became (or shortly will have become) hurricanes, and that appears to have never happened before (though I'll keep checking).


And we are not done... if the next storm rises to that Hurricane status again it will be 6 in a row
Good Morning All....I see Tomas made some big changes in the last 9 hours or so....hot sun down here...how is barbados holding up?
Quoting mbjjm:

Lots of roofs blown off in Barbados

Live radio from Barbados

Thanks for this link. Seems like lots of damage on the Island. They are saying it has gotten rally bad in the past 15 min. Lady just called seemed to be trapped in house and could no get thru to emergency personnel. Lots of large trees down. Interesting listening
NHC stubborn with track Tomas to be closer to PR than Jamaica
Quoting mbjjm:

Lots of roofs blown off in Barbados

Live radio from Barbados

Thanks for the link! wow they are lucky it's only a trop storm/cat1
Quoting FFtrombi:
Hurricane hunters found a minimum pressure of 992mb so far in Tomas.
URNT12 KNHC 301130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/10:47:40Z
B. 12 deg 59 min N
059 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3033 m
D. 51 kt
E. 298 deg 23 nm
F. 020 deg 52 kt
G. 301 deg 57 nm
H. EXTRAP 993 mb
I. 10 C / 3043 m
J. 13 C / 3046 m
K. 1 C / NA
L. SPIRAL EYEWALL
M. E36/50/30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 04
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 10:31:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
SEVERAL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TO CTR FROM NORTH
;

Quoting DestinJeff:
Free at last! Free at last!

Thank KOTG Almighty, I'm free at last!

Good Morning!!!
Quoting emcf30:

Thanks for this link. Seems like lots of damage on the Island. They are saying it has gotten rally bad in the past 15 min. Lady just called seemed to be trapped in house and could no get thru to emergency personnel. Lots of large trees down. Interesting listening


Thanksfully that's not another Earl intensity wise. Earl's southern eyewall affected the N Lesser Antilles as a cat 3 hurricane with little roofs damage overall. The Northern islands would be more accustomed with intense storms.
582. SLU
Barbados has received a serious blow from Tomas. St Lucia and St. Vincent need to be prepared for a tough day ahead. Based on the radar and track, St. Lucia could be the worst affected since it will end up in the northern quadrant.
Quoting poknsnok:
NHC stubborn with track Tomas to be closer to PR than Jamaica

PR wishcaster!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
URNT12 KNHC 301130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/10:47:40Z
B. 12 deg 59 min N
059 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3033 m
D. 51 kt
E. 298 deg 23 nm
F. 020 deg 52 kt
G. 301 deg 57 nm
H. EXTRAP 993 mb
I. 10 C / 3043 m
J. 13 C / 3046 m
K. 1 C / NA
L. SPIRAL EYEWALL
M. E36/50/30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 04
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 10:31:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
SEVERAL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TO CTR FROM NORTH
;



Yes. They came in on the WSW part of the eye and exited on the SSE; the winds will doubtless be considerably higher on the next pass if they puncture it on the visibly stronger NE quadrant...
Quoting Neapolitan:


Yes. They came in on the WSW part of the eye and exited on the SSE; the winds will doubtless be considerably higher on the next pass if they puncture it on the visibly stronger NE quadrant...


I think Tomas is a hurricane right now personally.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think Tomas is a hurricane right now personally.


I agree 100%, and believe that will be official very shortly...
Quoting Neapolitan:


I agree 100%, and believe that will be official very shortly...


Quite a year to have two hurricanes in late October at the same time.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

PR wishcaster!


Looks to me like NHC track takes it straight to Jamaica and a good distance south of Puerto Rico.
I am thinking 70 knts surface winds and close to 95 knt flight level winds on the next pass
Quoting CaribBoy:


Thanksfully that's not another Earl intensity wise. Earl's southern eyewall affected the N Lesser Antilles as a cat 3 hurricane with little roofs damage overall. The Northern islands would be more accustomed with intense storms.

I agree, There appears to be much more damage with a much weaker storm. They are reporting houses tumbled ontop of each other and wide spread damage to roofs and ect. emergency management just stated worst is yet to come.
They're finding 50 knots surface winds (uncontaminated) and they're still 20-30 miles or so from the eye.
Goodmorning, Is there any chance at all of Tomas hitting the US?
593. JRRP
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks to me like NHC track takes it straight to Jamaica and a good distance south of Puerto Rico.

OMG Xtrap hits my house
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Is there any chance at all of Tomas hitting the US?

Probably, though it would be a very small chance. Say 1-in-150?
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Is there any chance at all of Tomas hitting the US?


I'll give it about 1% chance.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Is there any chance at all of Tomas hitting the US?

It doesn't look like it at this time.
Quoting poknsnok:
NHC stubborn with track Tomas to be closer to PR than Jamaica


Based on what?
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Is there any chance at all of Tomas hitting the US?


Depends on what you mean the US... because PR is part of the US and there is about a 25% chance of a hit there
Quoting Neapolitan:

Probably, though it would be a very small chance. Say 1-in-150?
I like those odds. There was some debate on here last night that the front would not pull Tomas poleward as fast and the N Gulf Coast may have a problem with Tomas.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Depends on what you mean the US... because PR is part of the US and there is about a 25% chance of a hit there
Lower 48
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I'll give it about 1% chance.
Great
Quoting emcf30:

I agree, There appears to be much more damage with a much weaker storm. They are reporting houses tumbled ontop of each other and wide spread damage to roofs and ect. emergency management just stated worst is yet to come.


Sad, good luck to them
Quoting Neapolitan:


I agree 100%, and believe that will be official very shortly...
Good Morning! I agree, and those in Jamaica and Haiti should take him seriously. Haiti is already going through enough; this could be devastating.
605. IKE
5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 12.9°N 59.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb

...........................................

...TOMAS CAUSES DAMAGE ON BARBADOS...NOW HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AT NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...
8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.1°N 60.1°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Link
Here's one for ya "cat poop causes hookworm epedemic on Miami Beach". The chamber of commerce will not be happy if they read this. This is an isolated area.
Tomas' first visible !!!
Now I can't walk on the beach barefoot.
Quoting IKE:
5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 12.9N 59.5W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb

...........................................

...TOMAS CAUSES DAMAGE ON BARBADOS...NOW HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AT NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...
8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.1N 60.1W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb

Click for Loop

It's sound like it's really bad in Barbados, listening to VOB 92.9 fm live http://vob929.ocmnet.net/voblive.html

It looks like St Vincent and St Lucia are in the line of fire.
Recon is finding 70 knt flight level winds and 55 knt surface winds and they have not even started to turn toward the center yet
06z HWRF

HWRF trending east again. I'm wondering why it is so different than the other models... although much have aslo shifted east at 2AM..
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Depends on what you mean the US... because PR is part of the US and there is about a 25% chance of a hit there
Even without a direct hit, if Tomas is a heavy rainmaker, damage could be extensive. Again, and not to sound like a broken record but rain (non-surge) flooding is the leading result of fatalities in tropical systems. Those in Puerto Rico should be prepared and aware.
Yes, both Jamaica and Haiti need to be on guard. However, the model consensus now seems to be pointing towards Hispaniola and the NHC is also starting to trend that way.
Tomas will not hit Puerto Rico. I don't like to make predictions but this is a fact!
What Ike is to FL I am to Puerto Rico.
Quoting Triniman:
It's sound like it's really bad in Barbados, listening to VOB 92.9 fm live http://vob929.ocmnet.net/voblive.html



Bad link.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Free at last! Free at last!

Thank KOTG Almighty, I'm free at last!


Welcome back, Jeff. Missed ya!
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Tomas will not hit Puerto Rico. I don't often make predictions but this one is a fact!


although chances for PR are low, forecast is still uncertain..
Lsst line in the NHC 5am Discussion..."Late in the period, the forward speed is quite slow due to the LARGE UNCERTAINTY in the timing and sharpness of the potiential Northward turn"
621. P451
I see Shary did make Hurricane status afterall. Late yesterday afternoon she certainly looked like it based on what Recon was finding and her core on Bermuda radar was clearly that of a hurricane.

Now Tomas is going to make the leap if he hasn't yet already.

If Barbados had a lot of damage from a 70mph TS then Tomas is going to destroy someone in the Caribbean unfortunately.

Think how Katrina as a minimal Cat 1 really caused a lot of damage in south Florida.

Quoting jambev:
Yes, both Jamaica and Haiti need to be on guard. However, the model consensus now seems to be pointing towards Hispaniola and the NHC is also starting to trend that way.
The conditions in Haiti are already awful and now with Cholera now afflicting hundreds of people, the last thing they need is a direct hit or a near miss from a major hurricane.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
The conditions in Haiti are already awful and now with Cholera now afflicting hundreds of people, the last thing they need is a direct hit or a near miss from a major hurricane.
so what can be done? i look for intensification of this system more than nhc could be a major by tomorrow
track chart will shift to the south, TOMAS is tracking west now.
627. Gorty
To my untrianed eye, it seems like Tomas is not doing very good. He seems disorganized to me with a hard to find center.
The way that Shary is hanging in there, increasing in intensity and riding the front reminds me of Vince from 2005 who did much the same thing over coldish water in the Eastern Atlantic. I seem to remember at the time there was commentary on a peculiar kind of tropical system that could do this over colder than average water and still intensify. Never heard any more on this though since.

Tomas is bad news I feel.....
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link
It does look to be more west for now.
things sound bad in barbados, just lost thier PM and now hit by a cat 1 hurricane, hang in there barbados we are all praying for you.
634. JRRP
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
track chart will shift to the south, TOMAS is tracking west now.

really ?
keep posting them! mark my word it will shift because Tomas is going to slow down
Quoting Gorty:
To my untrianed eye, it seems like Tomas is not doing very good. He seems disorganized to me with a hard to find center.

What does your untrained eye see on this RADAR loop?
638. ackee
latest 8am model runs have shift again further South last run was further North and East
639. P451
I think Tomas' broad center is fooling us into thinking maybe he's tracking west. Seems to be a large wobbling center.

Tomas always had trouble caused a tight core presentation on color infared imagery. This appears no different. Radar shows a different story as does the reports out of Barbados.

Movement of Tomas, still W-NW, what's happening is that it's building an eye wall, it's strengthening.See this radar loop.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html
i am looking at the radar and the coc is tracking west, ok!!!!
642. P451
Quoting CaribBoy:
06z HWRF

HWRF trending east again. I'm wondering why it is so different than the other models... although much have aslo shifted east at 2AM..


HWRF has had a constant northerly biased in model guidance in the Caribbean throughout the season.

Simply a model that has shown it cannot pin down a Caribbean system this year - for whatever reason.

It was a lot closer to model guidance in the Atlantic systems however.
Quoting P451:
I think Tomas' broad center is fooling us into thinking maybe he's tracking west. Seems to be a large wobbling center.

Tomas always had trouble caused a tight core presentation on color infared imagery. This appears no different. Radar shows a different story as does the reports out of Barbados.


Going WNW to me. this loop shows it also.
644. Gorty
Quoting AussieStorm:

What does your untrained eye see on this RADAR loop?


Much better but infrared Sat and normal Sat presntation doesnt look as good as the radar mainly at the center I am talking about. But based on reprts from tjose islands and the radar, I can see Tomas being Cat. 1 at 11:00 am. But he will take some time to get up to cat 3.
I'm looking the radar also and is tracking WNW, ok.
646. P451
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Even though the west side of the convection is warming some the east side is clearly exploding and looking to wrap around during the course of the day. Also you can note Tomas is starting to shed that outer shield some and a more defined system is evident in that loop.

I would watch that convection just to his NE wrap around while he continues to shed his "basket" (referring to an egg in a basket presentation he's had at times) --- and see if that core tightens up during the day.

Seems like it's going to. Tomas is probably going to look a whole lot more menacing and balanced later today.

A crude image showing what I think the progression here is.



Blue - main system becoming balanced and defined as it sheds it's womb(basket) in green. Yellow feeder band setting up as primary as green is shed. Pink arrows show newest convective ball that could wrap around the entire core as the day goes on.

Good morning everyone

The wind flags in this image pretty much tell us where the center is. To me,I would say it is immediately to the SW of Barbados where they now have winds straight out of the South.

SOME PEOPLE ON THIS BLOGG HAVE NO IDEA ON COMPASS DIRECTIONS.
649. txjac
Nice analysis P451, very interesting. Thank you for presenting it in "layman's terms"
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
SOME PEOPLE ON THIS BLOGG HAVE NO IDEA ON COMPASS DIRECTIONS.

Looking at RADAR and also watching the HH'ers, Tomas is going slightly north of due west. hence, WNW.
For the directionally challenged

Quoting CybrTeddy:



Bad link.


Put a www into the link
AL, 21, 2010103012, 131N, 601W, 60, 993, TS
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (3.7degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of (8.9degrees west of) NorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~14.3mph(~23.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~19.3mph(~31.1km/h)
TropicalDepression21
29Oct 12pmGMT - 10.0n55.3w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
TS.Thomas
29Oct 06pmGMT - 10.8n56.8w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - - 998mb - ATCF
29Oct 09pmGMT - 11.1n57.5w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - . - 998mb - NHC.Adv.#1
30Oct 12amGMT - 11.6n57.6w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 999mb - NHC.Adv.#2
30Oct 03amGMT - 12.2n58.4w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3
30Oct 06amGMT - 12.4n58.8w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3A
30Oct 09amGMT - 12.9n59.5w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#4
30Oct 12pmGMT - 13.1n60.1w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#4A

Copy&paste 10.0n55.3w, 10.8n56.8w, 11.1n57.5w, 11.6n57.6w-12.2n58.4w, 12.2n58.4w-12.4n58.8w, 12.4n58.8w-12.9n59.5w, 12.9n59.5w-13.1n60.1w, ccs, gbj, svd, 13.1n60.1w-13.442n61.13w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~4hours from now to passing ~4.1miles(~6.7kilometres)north of Fancy,St.Vincent

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting Orcasystems:




There you go. The center is right where I said it was, immediately to the SW of Barbados
It looks like St Vincent is going to be in the Southern half of the eye
Quoting AussieStorm:

What does your untrained eye see on this RADAR loop?


Big! Nasty and, yep, a center. Poor Haiti. Almost has to get hit no matter where Tomas goes because of the size and Haiti is a permanent disaster zone even in years when they don't get a direct hit.
Tomas looks to be going W or just N of W
Link
CHECK RADAR
661. asdip
Here in St Lucia, v.strong winds, trees and poles down, not looking good.
The high over the GOM continues to press on to the East and the weakness in the steering caused by Shary is closing off quickly. The track of Tomas will respond to this by flattening out during the course of the next 18 hours to a more Westerly heading, say 280 to 290 degrees IMO.

Link
SHORTWAVE IMAGERY
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link
CHECK RADAR
please quit shouting. My head is hurting.
Quoting kmanislander:


There you go. The center is right where I said it was, immediately to the SW of Barbados


Actually.. due west
LAte season buri anes are very hard to predict because the atmosphere is so dynamic. The ridge that is supposed to keep the Thomas south has not formed yet and the track is totally dependent on the depth and intensity of that ridge. Right now there is a trough north of Thomas that if it stalled he would go up into. Luckily for us islanders it's moving and not digging down enough.
But still dependingon that ridge the track may move north or south 150 miles or so. The GFS has had it all the way down over SA and allthe way to 16N on various runs over the last two days. It also appears there are competing upper level centers on IR but Thomas is intensifying anyway.

As a note limiting factor to intensification will bee DRY AIR that will be filling in to the north. But with all that hot water to draw on I can see a cat 3 especially if it takes the soutthern track
sorry didnt realise caps was on , my apologies.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. due west


The dropsonde in your google image is off the SW corner of Barbados
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sorry didnt realise caps was on , my apologies.
Thanks
Models are still flopping around like a wounded whaoo on the deck.

I will be leaving for St. Thomas on Thurs. Will Tomas impact my travel?
Quoting kmanislander:


The dropsonde in your google image is off the SW corner of Barbados


The dropsonde/Observation reports are not displayed on the track, they are offset. The second Vortex run has not been plotted yet, but its due west.
Quoting asdip:
Here in St Lucia, v.strong winds, trees and poles down, not looking good.

Hey, Stay safe please.
Quoting thebandman:
I will be leaving for St. Thomas on Thurs. Will Tomas impact my travel?
nah your good to go
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Models are still flopping around like a wounded whaoo on the deck.



Typical when you have a late season system. Trying to forecast the track more than 24 to 48 hours out becomes a real challenge.
Quoting kmanislander:


The dropsonde in your google image is off the SW corner of Barbados
URNT12 KNHC 301301
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/12:31:30Z
B. 13 deg 07 min N
060 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 3044 m
D. 65 kt
E. 056 deg 18 nm
F. 143 deg 62 kt
G. 052 deg 28 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 9 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3047 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C50
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 11:47:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
NOT A SOLID EYEWALL FIXED CTR NEAR END OF A SPIRAL IN THE EYE AREA
MAX SFC WINDS WELL WITHIN THE RADAR CENTER
SONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX SFMR WINDS RECORDED 72 KTS AT SFC
;



Hurricane ?




Vortex Plotted... due west

Some people here need glasses.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html


Radar again......:rolleyes.jpg:
Quoting Orcasystems:


The dropsonde/Observation reports are not displayed on the track, they are offset. The second Vortex run has not been plotted yet, but its due west.


Okay, will wait to see it. Not much distance between the two positions given the size of Barbados.
Quoting kmanislander:


Typical when you have a late season system. Trying to forecast the track more than 24 to 48 hours out becomes a real challenge.


I am not sure what you two are talking about... but the system is dead centre of the projected track, and has been since yesterday
asdip what area in st lucia you are referring to. in the north heavy rain with gusts to 45mph
Quoting Gorty:


Much better but infrared Sat and normal Sat presntation doesnt look as good as the radar mainly at the center I am talking about. But based on reprts from tjose islands and the radar, I can see Tomas being Cat. 1 at 11:00 am. But he will take some time to get up to cat 3.
A Cat 1 at 11:00AM, Cat 2, as it passes South of PR, tomorrow around 2:00pm, and a Cat 3 Monday SE of Haiti as it makes the turn to E or ENE ....
Orcasystems , i agree a due west movement
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not sure what you two are talking about... but the system is dead centre of the projected track, and has been since yesterday


I was responding to his statement regarding the models at the end of the runs, not what is happening now.
686. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
asdip what area in st lucia you are referring to. in the north heavy rain with gusts to 45mph


Morning Storm.

I heard that the winds are picking up. Gusts to 53mph and roofs blowing off in VF already. It's hard for me to be away from home in a time like this.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Orcasystems , i agree a due west movement


I never said it was going due west...I said it was due west of Barbados... its not tracking due west at all. Its tracking around 290-295
Recon

P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 11:47:10Z
SLP
EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
NOT A SOLID EYEWALL FIXED CTR NEAR END OF A
SPIRAL IN THE EYE AREA
MAX SFC WINDS WELL WITHIN THE RADAR CENTER
SONDE
RELEASED NEAR MAX SFMR WINDS RECORDED 72 KTS AT SFC




Quoting stormwatcherCI:
URNT12 KNHC 301301
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/12:31:30Z
B. 13 deg 07 min N
060 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 3044 m
D. 65 kt
E. 056 deg 18 nm
F. 143 deg 62 kt
G. 052 deg 28 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 9 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3047 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C50
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 11:47:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
NOT A SOLID EYEWALL FIXED CTR NEAR END OF A SPIRAL IN THE EYE AREA
MAX SFC WINDS WELL WITHIN THE RADAR CENTER
SONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX SFMR WINDS RECORDED 72 KTS AT SFC
;



Hurricane ?


Looks that way but the pressure just came up 2 mbs. Probably upgrade at 11 if no further pressure rise and organization holds
From recon its a hurricane currently positioned due west of barbados and tracking at 290 WNW
Quoting Orcasystems:


I never said it was going due west...I said it was due west of Barbados... its not tracking due west at all. Its tracking around 290-295



O mine, Some body was owned very hard, thanks Orca for the clarification.....
Quoting kmanislander:
The high over the GOM continues to press on to the East and the weakness in the steering caused by Shary is closing off quickly. The track of Tomas will respond to this by flattening out during the course of the next 18 hours to a more Westerly heading, say 280 to 290 degrees IMO.

Good morning K-Man..What your talking about shows up well on the MIMIC-TPW..Notice how well Tomas Massive spin looks..
Quoting kmanislander:


Looks that way but the pressure just came up 2 mbs. Probably upgrade at 11 if no further pressure rise and organization holds


Saw a 993 earlier, yesterdays recon showed 1001 mb but the NHC went the lower route.
694. P451


No big surprise, but ATCF says Tomas is a hurricane; NHC should upgrade shortly:

NHC_ATCF
invest_al212010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010301320
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 80, 50, 90, 1009, 225, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TOMAS, M,
AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 25, 15, 40, 1009, 225, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TOMAS, M,
AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 0, 1009, 225, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TOMAS, M,
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning K-Man..What your talking about shows up well on the MIMIC-TPW..Notice how well Tomas Massive spin looks..


Yeah, you can really see that high coming down from the NW
Headed to Punta Cana ..next week ....yay!!
Tomas
699. Mixed
Rain And Wind Starting To Pick Up Greatly Here In The North Of St Lucia
Hurricane Tomas
AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU

19-12-5
Two simultaneous hurricanes in late October.

AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU,
From about an hour ago:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 OCT 2010 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 13:07:23 N Lon : 60:08:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -34.7C Cloud Region Temp : -50.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:31:12 N Lon: 60:44:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
Morning Kman.....And all!
kman, thanks soooo much for the "directionally challenged" chart. I can now put the degree heading with the directional heading and it makes is so much clearer in understanding the actual storm path. I have learned so much in this blog over the years....you all are DA BOMB! And good morning to all. Looks like the unusual and interesting season just keeps on going like the Energizer Bunny!LOL
Quoting miken62:
Headed to Punta Cana ..next week ....yay!!


Where's Puta Cana?
The trough that is to move Tomas out is on the West Coast now over California. Timing will be a real player here.
That's 19-12-5 (on the way to 19-12-6), in case any of you are keeping score at home... ;-)
Quoting Dakster:


Where's Puta Cana?


Hey my friend, is Punta Cana de "N" word is very important on that word, Punta Cana is in Dominican Republic.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's 19-12-5 (on the way to 19-12-6), in case any of you are keeping score at home... ;-)


Talk about an active season...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning Kman.....And all!


I was hoping we wouldn't see one like Tomas this year. Virtually every system that has come up from that origin point has done a lot of damage along the way. One blessing is the TCHP has fallen off but not enough to prevent this becoming a major I am afraid.
SHIPS Shear Forecast for Tomas (12z):


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 10 8 15 21 17 20 15 14 13 21 22 9 8
Thanks... I would be worried going to the DR in the next few days. Definetly watching where Tomas is going.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
kman, thanks soooo much for the "directionally challenged" chart. I can now put the degree heading with the directional heading and it makes is so much clearer in understanding the actual storm path. I have learned so much in this blog over the years....you all are DA BOMB! And good morning to all. Looks like the unusual and interesting season just keeps on going like the Energizer Bunny!LOL


You're welcome. It's the best compass rose I have found for tracking tropical systems.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Talk about an active season...


Indeed. Too, only two previous seasons have recorded as many as 12 hurricanes: 1969 (which also had 12) and 2005, with the all-time record of 15.
so will they go with the 70 knts that recon found?
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's 19-12-5 (on the way to 19-12-6), in case any of you are keeping score at home... ;-)

Gotta update the books. Still can't believe Shary made it. Incredible season. Day before Halloween and this type of activity going on. Wow.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Indeed. Too, only two previous seasons have recorded as many as 12 hurricanes: 1969 (which also had 12) and 2005, with the all-time record of 15.
Which season has had this many TCs, with no Hurricane strikes on the lower 48?
Looks like we'll have a Halloween hurricane.

Last time that happened I think was Noel in 2007.
Quoting scott39:
Which season has had this many TCs, with no Hurricane strikes on the lower 48?

Good question. Another good one: which season has had so many TCs with no hurricane strikes on the lower 48 yet causing so much devastation elsewhere?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 01U
9:00 PM WST October 30 2010
======================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 01U (1002 hPa) located at 7.8S 95.6E or about 505 km north northwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday. Although it is currently moving towards the west southwest, it is expected to take a southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands on Tuesday. Conditions are favorable for intensification and there is a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Saturday or Sunday, but may develop during Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.1S 94.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 8.6S 94.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 10.2S 96.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 12.3S 96.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================
Over the last six hours the system has consolidated with deep convection now beginning to wrap around the centre. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to overcome moderate shear.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 0244Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots in the western semicircle, however given the previously reported low bias of ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region are 30-35 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This system is considered to be very close to TC intensity and gales are likely to extend around the LLCC during the next diurnally favorable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favorable during Sunday and the system will remain over SST>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during Sunday. This also brings the system into light shear and by Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favorable conditions. The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental to this system, so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds. As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday.
Shear has been falling off ahead of Tomas which will further aid in the intensification process.

2010's the 3rd most active hurricane season

1887 had 19-11-2, 1995 had 19-11-5, 2010 has 19-12-5.

I never thought we'd see this level of activity so soon after 2005.

And we still have a month to go, plus with the likelihood of a post-season storm I am thinking 2010 will end with Walter or Alpha
Quoting Neapolitan:

Good question. Another good one: which season has had so many TCs with no hurricane strikes on the lower 48 yet causing so much devastation elsewhere?
Probably the same one.
Thomas now a cat 1 hurricane http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #83
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (T1014)
21:00 PM JST October 30 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chaba (994 hPa) located at 34.7N 141.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 24 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 38.9N 149.8E - Extratropical


Barbados - Lightning Rate Graph - last 24 hours

That Barbados radio station that was posted earlier is creeping me out with the Jesus music and Tomas.

Pretty darn ominous,

certainly a dangerous situation.
After 72 hours, timings in going to mean everything in regards to when the longwave trough digs, slows him down, and picks him up.




Hurricane Thomas, with updated tracks even :)
Hurricane Tomas.
Quoting kmanislander:
Shear has been falling off ahead of Tomas which will further aid in the intensification process.


The SHIPS (12z) forecast shows on average only 10-20 knots of shear max during the next 5 days for him, which is more than enough to allow strengthening. He's going to get very strong.
The weakness north of Tomas will be closing soon and force Tomas more due West. With the High North of Tomas....look for Tomas to speed up more than the models are showing before slowing down. That High to its north is pretty strong. Looks to me like a more Central Cuba turn to the North.
what are the thoughts on a us hit with Thomas?
Quoting goldmind:


Barbados - Lightning Rate Graph - last 24 hours


This is really cool. Nice post.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Indeed. Too, only two previous seasons have recorded as many as 12 hurricanes: 1969 (which also had 12) and 2005, with the all-time record of 15.


To be honest, back in July I was doubting that we'd see 16 even. This season sure proved us wrong.
Quoting TampaSpin:
The weakness north of Tomas will be closing soon and force Tomas more due West. With the High North of Tomas....look for Tomas to speed up more than the models are showing before slowing down. That High to its north is pretty strong. Looks to me like a more Central Cuba turn to the North.

Yes. He'll more than likely accelerate due to the stronger steering of the high.
Just remember the trend with models late in the year. They tend to initially over play the troughs and under play high pressure. Remember what the models had Richard doing into the GOM and he went South. Not saying Tomas will be that far south but, Further WEst is a good bet.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010's the 3rd most active hurricane season

1887 had 19-11-2, 1995 had 19-11-5, 2010 has 19-12-5.

I never thought we'd see this level of activity so soon after 2005.

And we still have a month to go, plus with the likelihood of a post-season storm I am thinking 2010 will end with Walter or Alpha
Good morning Ted..What about 1933. It had 21 storms..
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just remember the trend with models late in the year. The tend to initially over play the troughs and under play high pressure. Remember what the models had Richard doing into the GOM and he went South. Not saying Tomas will be that far south but, Further WEst is a good bet.
mmmmmmm...interesting!
The eye is starting to form up visibly.

Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Ted..What about 1933. It had 21 storms..


That was the 2nd most active season. 2010 will probably either tie or beat it for 2nd place.
Lightning/2000 v5.2.2 Summary (Saturday, October 30, 2010 at 7:42:11 AM N)

Since midnight (462.2 mins.):
Total strokes: 4722 (avg. 10.2/min.)
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/180.JPG
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Nice pic.
Back later. BFN
Quoting atmoaggie:


check out that eye....what was the wind speed on the first advisory yesterday did it jump right to tropical storm?
Quoting goldmind:
Lightning/2000 v5.2.2 Summary (Saturday, October 30, 2010 at 7:42:11 AM N)

Since midnight (462.2 mins.):
Total strokes: 4722 (avg. 10.2/min.)

Talk about some serious energy.
Quoting atmoaggie:
thanks atmoaggie you just helped me prove a point
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thanks atmoaggie you just helped me prove a point
I saw your post about eye clearing...
Growing, and surface winds to 72 knots (83 mph), but still has some work to do...

000
URNT12 KNHC 301301
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/12:31:30Z
B. 13 deg 07 min N
060 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 3044 m
D. 65 kt
E. 056 deg 18 nm
F. 143 deg 62 kt
G. 052 deg 28 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 9 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3047 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C50
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 11:47:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
NOT A SOLID EYEWALL FIXED CTR NEAR END OF A SPIRAL IN THE EYE AREA
MAX SFC WINDS WELL WITHIN THE RADAR CENTER
SONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX SFMR WINDS RECORDED 72 KTS AT SFC
;
A pretty broad upper-level AC that will be protecting him throughout much of his journey.

what is that wave SE of Thomas... will it follow Thomas?
Shary is probably the most ill defined hurricane ive ever seen!
that was kmanislander, however iwas telling everyone based on radar imagery the coc is moving due west and got flamed for it.
Gotta run......Got everything you need at my WU blog with links to take you......enjoy and have a good day.
it is a wave..just as you described.

amazing
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Shary is probably the most ill defined hurricane ive ever seen!


yea but recon and ASCAT proved she made it to hurricane status
Very impressive Upper Level Divergence

Buoy well to the west..http://www.Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.500N 63.5W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 30 Oct 2010 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.90 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F
i think the forecast path will shift North again at 11 am
So Tomas went north of Barbados
and is now turning west again.
Quoting uncljbnd:
it is a wave..just as you described.

amazing


right but will it pull northward like Thomas did
Quoting CybrTeddy:


To be honest, back in July I was doubting that we'd see 16 even. This season sure proved us wrong.

I can proudly say--now--that I steadfastly stuck with 20-12-6, so all that's left is for Tomas to make major--almost a lock--and one more TS to form by December 31.
Shari does look a bit ragged..
sure..and then it will dissipate like most waves do
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 01U
9:00 PM WST October 30 2010
======================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 01U (1002 hPa) located at 7.8S 95.6E or about 505 km north northwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday. Although it is currently moving towards the west southwest, it is expected to take a southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands on Tuesday. Conditions are favorable for intensification and there is a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Saturday or Sunday, but may develop during Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.1S 94.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 8.6S 94.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 10.2S 96.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 12.3S 96.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================
Over the last six hours the system has consolidated with deep convection now beginning to wrap around the centre. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to overcome moderate shear.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 0244Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots in the western semicircle, however given the previously reported low bias of ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region are 30-35 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This system is considered to be very close to TC intensity and gales are likely to extend around the LLCC during the next diurnally favorable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favorable during Sunday and the system will remain over SST>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during Sunday. This also brings the system into light shear and by Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favorable conditions. The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental to this system, so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds. As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday.

Another storm developing a little early in the southern hemisphere.
its a hurricane
Quoting Neapolitan:

I can proudly say--now--that I steadfastly stuck with 20-12-6, so all that's left is for Tomas to make major--almost a lock--and one more TS to form by December 31.
When do you start working at the NHC?..:)
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
that was kmanislander, however iwas telling everyone based on radar imagery the coc is moving due west and got flamed for it.


Due West is pretty close...YOu should now by now that Orca knows everything.....LOL.....See ya all.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Shary is probably the most ill defined hurricane ive ever seen!

Judging just by satellite imagery, it'd be very hard to tell! He has a strange appearance. But a hurricane nonetheless, as recon and ASCAT suggest.
me too see yah all later......
Quoting kmanislander:


I was hoping we wouldn't see one like Tomas this year. Virtually every system that has come up from that origin point has done a lot of damage along the way. One blessing is the TCHP has fallen off but not enough to prevent this becoming a major I am afraid.


And indicators point to Hispaniola.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So Tomas went north of Barbados
and is now turning west again.

Nope went just south of Barbados.
Pretty impressive for our boy Tomas.

1) Has any North Atlantic storm south of 15 degrees north spun up from invest to hurricane this quickly before (and with such a large wind field?)

2) Did Tomás originate in a wave that traveled over from Africa? Given the time of year, that would be an amusing factoid, if so.

3) Any thoughts about the blob near 5N 43W? Is this the next one?
this could follow a paloma or mabie a charley type path is my thinking right now
wow!!look at the high wind shear moving south..
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
that was kmanislander, however iwas telling everyone based on radar imagery the coc is moving due west and got flamed for it.
Right. Past time for a coffee....
Another thing to note that in addition to the light shear present over Tomas, he'll also continue to be traversing over a very rich, moist mid-level atmosphere. Dry air won't be a problem with him a bit.

SHIPS (12z) Relative Humidity Levels

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 63 64 68 67 68 69 69 73 76 74 74 71 69
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
wow!!look at the high wind shear moving south..


its not forecasted to impact Thomas though
Ummm... Why did the opposite happen, Tomas was supposed to be a Hurricane, not Shary lol.. Weird season. Well the Hurricane streak continues from Otto to Shary and most likely Tomas later today.
Cloud pattern has become ragged in the past 6-12 hours.


Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what is that wave SE of Thomas... will it follow Thomas?


i dont think so but Thomas wasnt thought to develop for a time either so lets watch it and see what it does
its moving north not south
Tomas is not finished with Barbados yet.
LinkIRLoop
with 2 hurricanes is it Oct 30 or Aug 30? lol
Quoting reedzone:
Ummm... Why did the opposite happen, Tomas was supposed to be a Hurricane, not Shary lol.. Weird season. Well the Hurricane streak continues from Otto to Shary and most likely Tomas later today.


Its been a Hurricane for about an hour now reed

Quoting reedzone:
Ummm... Why did the opposite happen, Tomas was supposed to be a Hurricane, not Shary lol.. Weird season. Well the Hurricane streak continues from Otto to Shary and most likely Tomas later today.

AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU
Quoting hydrus:
When do you start working at the NHC?..:)

Hey, I never claimed to be good--just stubborn and persistent enough to hold out until luck kicked in. ;-)
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Tomas
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Amazing, the numbers could total to this..
20/12/6
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Cloud pattern has become ragged in the past 6-12 hours.



It sure has
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Tomas
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







the models this morn are showing steady weakening
Quoting weatherlover94:
this could follow a paloma or mabie a charley type path is my thinking right now

Probably not Charlie. I don't see this getting anywhere near FL.
i dont think that will happen
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Probably not Charlie. I don't see this getting anywhere near FL.


cant totally rule it out though these things can pull tricks on us
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Tomas
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Seems like most of them are now responding to the longwave expected to dig in.
Quoting weatherlover94:


cant totally rule it out though these things can pull tricks on us

Trick or Treat!
I think the HH is having problems again... with their reports.. its been to long without an update again... they should be at the Vortex position.
27 minutes since the last HDOB.
it'll fix itself dont worry wont be ragged for long
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Trick or Treat!


you got it

I think a flora like track is very possible hopefully Tomas won't be anywhere near as devestating
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think a flora like track is very possible hopefully Tomas won't be anywhere near as devestating

Hmmm...That's the closest possibility I've seen at least.
...Tomas causes damage on Barbados...now heading toward the northern Windward Islands at near-hurricane strength...


summary of 800 am AST...1200 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.1n 60.1w
about 70 mi...115 km se of St. Lucia
about 70 mi...115 km E of St. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/hr
present movement...WNW or 300 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr minimum central pressure...993 mb...29.32 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and The Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada
* Dominica

a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area outside the United States...please monitor products issued by your National Meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am AST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near latitude 13.1 north...longitude 60.1 west.

Tomas is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track...the center of Tomas will pass through the northern Windward Islands this afternoon and enter the eastern Caribbean Sea by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Tomas is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km from the center. During the past hour...a wind gust to 63 mph...100 km/hr...was reported on Barbados. Information from the Barbados meteorological service indicates that damage to homes and downed power lines have been reported on the island.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring on Barbados...and will spread across the remainder of the warning area this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning.

Rainfall...Tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches...across portions of the windward and southern Leeward Islands.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels within areas of onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by large and potentially destructive waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart/cangialosi


Can't forget about our girl Shary:

Hurricane SHARY: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 21 hours lead
822:

Barbados had a pretty rough night. Hope the folks there stayed safe.
This is the best storm I could find that traveled across the Caribbean so late in the season, this is 1895


It's just rare and not likely for Tomas to reach the Western Caribbean without getting pulled.
the eye approaching Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html
...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
000
WTNT31 KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Tomas in Barbados







Finally updated.. :)
...SHARY RACING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 55.6W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
19/12/5
Quoting reedzone:
19/12/5

Bingo
Th NAM is rather interesting.I noticed a spin over Colombia yesterday, and the NAM develops it..LinkLink
Two canes simultaneously a day before Halloween. How about that.
Forecast Discussion for Shary:

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING
HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
OVER COOLER WATER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 35.9N 55.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 38.0N 50.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
Quoting reedzone:
This is the best storm I could find that traveled across the Caribbean so late in the season, this is 1895


It's just rare and not likely for Tomas to reach the Western Caribbean without getting pulled.


How could you forget Lenny?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


St. Lucia and St. Vincent in for some rough weather momentarily.
Hurricane TOMAS: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 21 hours lead:

Quoting Grothar:


How could you forget Lenny?



Lenny with the big ear traveled, east. I was talking about storms moving west :P
I wonder what happened to Recon? They haven't reported any HDOB data since 10:01a.m EDT.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Two canes simultaneously a day before Halloween. How about that.
What makes me laugh is back in 1983, I would wait for what seemed like a year for one of these storms to form so I could track and observe it. Now it is hard sometimes just to keep up with the current readings. There were only 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm that year..Tomas looking a little off kilter at the moment..
Quoting reedzone:


Lenny with the big ear traveled, east. I was talking about storms moving west :P


LOL. Strange, storm that one. and powerful, too.
Quoting hydrus:
What makes me laugh is back in 1983, I would wait for what seemed like a year for one of these storms to form so I could track and observe it. Now it is hard sometimes just to keep up with the current readings. There were only 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm that year..Tomas looking a little off kilter at the moment..

My gosh, that was a very dull, quiet season. Well you sure have paid your dues playing the waiting game. These two are out there, but Shary is going to getting frail very soon.
Quoting hydrus:
What makes me laugh is back in 1983, I would wait for what seemed like a year for one of these storms to form so I could track and observe it. Now it is hard sometimes just to keep up with the current readings. There were only 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm that year..Tomas looking a little off kilter at the moment..


Wow, all the way to 1983? Everthing must have still been in black & white. (Morning, hydrus)
Quoting goldmind:
the eye approaching Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html


Thanks for the Address, I couldn;t pick out the eye on sat loops.
854. afj3
Anybody want to guess what's in store for Jamaica?
Path shifted south a bit.
Quoting afj3:
Anybody want to guess what's in store for Jamaica?

Not bright sunshine filled days, that's for sure. lol
858. afj3
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not bright sunshine filled days, that's for sure. lol

Oh Lord. Not good!
The tale of two ridges steering our boy Tomas. As one weakens, the other moves in.

Quoting Grothar:


Wow, all the way to 1983? Everthing must have still been in black & white. (Morning, hydrus)
Wuzup Gro..1983 was a cool year for me though. Traveled a lot and met some great people...If there is an eye it is not well formed..
Quoting afj3:
Anybody want to guess what's in store for Jamaica?


DOOM
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Gro..!983 was a cool year for me though. Traveled a lot and met some great people...If there is an eye it is not well formed..


Cat 1 canes don't have fully developed eyes yet, once it gets to Cat 2 we will see one.
Quoting afj3:

Oh Lord. Not good!

It's all about the timing. The faster he moves riding that stronger mid-level ridge that will build and move to the north of him, the further west he'll get before the longwave picks him up. Perhaps he'll slow down, pivot, and respond to the trough before he makes it to Jamaica.
Quoting afj3:
Anybody want to guess what's in store for Jamaica?

Tropical Storm Tomas is expected to become a major Hurricane east of Jamaica on Thursday.
All interests are, therefore, advised to pay close attention to Releases issued by the Meteorological Service. From Met service JA
Quoting Patrap:
Tomas in Barbados





Great video Pat, our first peek of Tomas' fury.
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Tomas
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Quoting afj3:
Anybody want to guess what's in store for Jamaica?


Too early to tell. All depends on the right hook. It will be a close call.
Theres a few more TOMAS striking Barbados Vids on Utube this morning,,,
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Tomas
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







They're flip-flopping again..........Here we go.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Two canes simultaneously a day before Halloween. How about that.


Where are the downcasters that insisted that the season was over? Tell that to our friends in Barbados.
The ECMWF does not show Tomas very well..Link
The eye isn't perfect but definitely discernibleLink
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301501
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS MORNING FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH SEVERAL 64-66 KT RELIABLE SFMR
WINDS. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL INDICATED
A SURFACE WIND OF 72 KT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LESSER SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF AROUND 66
KT. A COMBINATION OF THIS DATA EASILY SUPPORTS A 65-KT HURRICANE...
AND TOMAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED ACCORDINGLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE LATEST RECON FIX
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM SAN JUAN REVEALED 30-METER 500 MB HEIGHT
INCREASES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS HAS STARTED AS THE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS CAPTURED HURRICANE SHARY LIFTS RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE
NEXT 72-96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE TOMAS ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A
BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAYS
2-3 AND THEN DIG MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT...AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAY 5. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
AND A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...
AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

TOMAS HAS DEVELOPED A 30-40 NMI DIAMETER EYE NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. A COMBINATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEP WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WESTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND INDUCE SOME
SHEAR ON TOMAS...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
USUALLY WITH WESTERLY SHEAR COMES DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THIS
INHIBITING FACTOR WAS CLEARLY INDICATED IN UPPER-AIR DATA WEST OF
65W LONGITUDE THIS MORNING. BY 72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...AND A INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS...WHICH MAKES A TOMAS A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 13.3N 60.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 13.8N 62.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 14.4N 64.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.8N 67.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.2N 69.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.6N 72.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 75.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Where are the downcasters that insisted that the season was over? Tell that to our friends in Barbados.

Yeah. exactly.
875:

Gotta love Stacy Stewart's discussions. Detailed and covers everything.
no change to the forecast path or intensity
Quoting Fla55Native:
The eye isn't perfect but definitely discernibleLink

Yep


The following is an open letter from Richard Lumarque, the extraordinary man who headed up our field team in Haiti after the earthquake in January. For those of you who followed our efforts in the aftermath of the earthquake you will remember the amazing job that Richard, his cousin Tabitha and their team did in the early days; they worked miracles and without them we would have accomplished a mere fraction of what we did.




Portlight Featured Wunderground Entry


Richard in Haiti earlier this year doing the Best of Works..






Help us Bring some Joy to those without much this season..




HAITI TOYS FOR CHRISTMAS DREAM



Dear Paul,


I want to start by thanking you for the interest and sincere caring your organization has shown to the underprivileged and poor people of the island of Haiti.


After being devastated by the earthquake of January 12th of this year where countless people lost their lives and forcing countless men, women and children to live in sub-human conditions, the survivors are now faced with an outbreak of cholera that threatens all of them. With the holidays coming, we want, once again, to come up with a way to give these people a ray of hope. We want to remind them that Portlight Strategies and the good-hearted people of America have not forgotten about them; we want them to know that we share their pain and suffering.


If you watch the news as I do, you will see that the big NGOs with millions of dollars in donations are still facing the same difficulties they have since the earthquake: supplies are locked up in warehouses and not being distributed in a timely manner to help the people that need these supplies the most. After doing some research on how we can make a difference for the Holidays, I think we can accomplish the following objective:


The Sean Penn foundation had taken a special interest in a camp located in the city of Petionville that holds about 40,000 of the homeless. He started a school for primary education which provides about 250 primary school students an opportunity for a quality education. The school was being cared for by another NGO but they too stopped providing the necessary funds to sustain the school. University Quisqueya up to now has been sustaining the operation of the school which employs 8 to 10 teachers with a salary of $400.00US for each teacher. The University is also facing difficult times as the entire University’s buildings had been destroyed by the earthquake.


There is also a school on the outskirts of the city of Jacmel called Centre Educatif de Fond Jean-Noel that provides education for about 600 students from Kindergarten through High School; the students’ ages vary from 5 to 18 years old. They even have a computer lab. That school was also supported by the efforts of the University Quisqueya and again, the funding has dried up. Soon, these 800 students will be without any opportunity for organized education unless we do something. These children are in desperate need of our help.


My dream is to be able to raise enough funds to pay for the salary of about 12 to 15 teachers for the next year. $5,000.00US a month for 12 months = $60,000.00US. In addition to the salaries for the staff, they need all kinds of school supplies; backpacks, pens, pencils, notepads and even lunch boxes. My further hope is to raise enough to buy some simple Christmas presents for about 800 students to bring a small ray of hope to these children whose lives have been forever changed by this tragedy.


Also, Haiti has been without electricity for about a month now. They need good quality flashlights, batteries and lanterns to sustain them. The kids are so desperate for a decent education that they are willing to learn with a lamp.


In the face of this devastation, we can make a difference. The key to the future of Haiti will be the children we educate today; these children are the future leaders of Haiti. They can lead these people to progress, democracy and a government without corruption but only if they receive the education that we in America take for granted.


I pray that we can find God’s Grace and Blessing in this endeavor and accomplish this task. We have very little time to accomplish this task but if we give of ourselves, we can do it.


Thank you for all your support, love and caring. God bless Portlight and God Bless the United States of America.

Sincerely,

Richard Lumarque
Gotta love how some people can see the silver lining in a eyewall cloud -- at least they get to feel superior to the downcasters. This storm might wreak some serious havoc on Jamaica, Cuba and/or Hispaniola, but at least you get to be the winner on the internet! Yay!
Question - After thomas passes the leeward islands is gonna explode?
Quoting tropicfreak:


Cat 1 canes don't have fully developed eyes yet, once it gets to Cat 2 we will see one.
I dunno...I have seen tropical storms that had an eye more pronounced then Tomas,s..
Quoting goldmind:
Question - After thomas passes the leeward islands is gonna explode?
That is my pediction..I hope I eat crow..:)
The eye of Tomas is just a few miles from moving onshore over the islands of St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Lucia. St. Vicent and the Grenadines are currently experiencing the eastern semicircle of the eyewall while St. Lucia is experiencing the northwestern semicircle of the eyewall. The worst conditions are yet to come however since data from Recon reveals that the strongest winds are located around the eastern and northeastern semicircles.

Quoting hydrus:
I dunno...I have seen tropical storms that had an eye more pronounced then Tomas,s..


Like Fay, over land?
Quoting Grothar:


How could you forget Lenny?


Thanks for bringing Lenny up.... what was Omar's track?
Tomas is now very nicely stacked vertically with the surface and flight level centers near perfectly aligned.

My suspicion is that he will hit CAT 2 ahead of schedule. Although those islands are too small to really impede development many are mountainous and will impart some friction and disruption to the developing core. Once Tomas hits the open sea he will have a clear run for several days.



The recent trends on radar are concerning. The southern eyewall filled in quickly.
Quoting goldmind:
Question - After thomas passes the leeward islands is gonna explode?


There's enough thermal energy compared to the Gom that has cooled down - to intensify...

Another question - The wind shear is low, The caribbean sea is so vast and so hot, it's possible thomas be another "Megi"?
I hope not.
Winds over land on Saint Lucia
East North East 59 knots.
St. Vincent is a volcanic island of steep mountain ridges, valleys and waterfalls. The backbone of mountains extends from north to south. The north is dominated by the La Soufriere volcano which reaches a height of 4,040 ft (1,219 meters); its last eruption was in 1979. The mountain range drops steeply on the western coast and slopes more gently on the eastern coast. Other mountain peaks on St. Vincent are Morne Garu, Grand Bonhomme, and Mount St. Andrews.



Source
Quoting goldmind:
Question - After thomas passes the leeward islands is gonna explode?

yes after he passes the Leeward islands will explode... quite a scary scenario!
But yes it looks like Tomas will bomb.... thank god it isn't September... so sorry for those island countries that might be in the path. Best scenario right now is for Tomas to shoot the gap between Haiti & Cuba.
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, all the way to 1983? Everthing must have still been in black & white. (Morning, hydrus)
Even that must have seemed amazing to you, Grothar. Question: Do you see sepia-toned in the mirror?
anyone have a st vincent radio link?
Quoting kmanislander:
Tomas is now very nicely stacked vertically with the surface and flight level centers near perfectly aligned.

My suspicion is that he will hit CAT 2 ahead of schedule. Although those islands are too small to really impede development many are mountainous and will impart some friction and disruption to the developing core. Once Tomas hits the open sea he will have a clear run for several days.




Hey Kman, what are your thoughts trackwise?
T.C.F.W
21L/H/T/C1
MARK
13.10n/60.33w
Quoting kmanislander:
Tomas is now very nicely stacked vertically with the surface and flight level centers near perfectly aligned.

My suspicion is that he will hit CAT 2 ahead of schedule. Although those islands are too small to really impede development many are mountainous and will impart some friction and disruption to the developing core. Once Tomas hits the open sea he will have a clear run for several days.




Kman now it will only go over 1 island, not much impeding him.
BTW....My stepfathers name was Tomas and I hated him!!!
Ok, some of us have to go to work :(
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
any word from barbadoes this am how they doing
905. Relix
Feeling pretty safe here at PR, though I would prefer it to go directly over us than go through Haiti. They don't deserve this =/
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any word from barbadoes this am how they doing
\
we were listening to the radio feed, it sounded like a bunch of trees down and aluminum roofs off but not much else.
wont the high ridge keep Tomas S of Haiti?
Recon just transmitted a Vortex message. A lot of missing data though due to computer problems.

I also wouldn't completely trust the validity of this data.

The 995mb reading for minimum surface pressure was based off a dropsonde that was supposedly dropped in the eye. They found 29mph surface winds in the eye.

000
URNT12 KNHC 301515 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 30/1406Z
B. 13 deg 03 min N
060 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 3047 M
D. 53 KT
E. 124 deg 07 NM
F. 244 deg 45 KT
G. 134 deg 37 NM
H. 995 MB
I. -
J. -
K. -
L. -
M. -
N. -
O. -
P. AF300 0222A TOMAS OB 16
MAX FL LVL WIND OUT BOUND 67 KT N QUAD 1416Z
MISSING DATA I THRU O BECAUSE OF COM PROBLEMS
909. P451
Satellite imagery showing a pronounced dry air slot streaming in from the south. Whether or not this disrupts Tomas core remains to be seen. This feature is probably mostly due to land interaction with the islands.

Once Tomas clears the islands, if atmospheric conditions remain good (shear, moisture) then he will tighten up and intensify.

The other thing to watch as was seen early this morning was the blow up of thunderstorms in his NE quad which have now rotated around heading into his SW quad. Will this continue and pinch off that dry slot? Will they continue to wrap around creating a solid ring of convection around his core?

Just things to watch over the course of the day.

Also keep in mind that Tomas has had a poor representation of his core on satellite imagery but the radar imagery shows otherwise - so don't pay full attention to the satellite and declare him ragged. Other tools are showing contrary to that.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Hey Kman, what are your thoughts trackwise?


Right now, a close call for Jamaica, possibly turning North as near as 50 miles East and swinging North near the tip of the Tiburon peninsula. This is very far out in time as you know and will depend on the evolution of the trough / ridge interaction late next week.

As you know long range track forecast errors by even the professionals can be off by hundreds of miles so take this with a grain of salt for now. I do however see Tomas making it quite deep into the central Caribbean before lifting out. The high over the GOM continues to push East and the last few satellite frames seem to suggest that the heading may have flattened a bit to 285 from 290 degrees.

The eye is clearing out quickly and headed directly for St Vincent. They will take a hard blow from this.
Quoting scott39:
wont the high ridge keep Tomas S of Haiti?

That's what the NHC is thinking, but the possible curve at the end of the forecast period is leaving things very ify.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
\
we were listening to the radio feed, it sounded like a bunch of trees down and aluminum roofs off but not much else.
lets hope thats all they still got a few more hrs yet
913. P451
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon just transmitted a Vortex message. A lot of missing data though due to computer problems.

I also wouldn't completely trust the validity of this data.



I would agree. Seems something went bad up there shortly after that 995mb vort from earlier today.
Quoting kmanislander:


Right now, a close call for Jamaica, possibly turning North as near as 50 miles East and swinging North near the tip of the Barahona peninsula. This is very far out in time as you know and will depend on the evolution of the trough / ridge interaction late next week.

As you know long range track forecast errors by even the professionals can be off by hundreds of miles so take this with a grain of salt for now. I do however see Tomas making it quite deep into the central Caribbean before lifting out. The high over the GOM continues to push East and the last few satellite frames seem to suggest that the heading may have flattened a bit to 285 from 290 degrees.

The eye is clearing out quickly and headed directly for St Vincent. They will take a hard blow from this.

Thanks, will keep an eye on it for now.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Kman now it will only go over 1 island, not much impeding him.
BTW....My stepfathers name was Tomas and I hated him!!!


St Vincent has 4000 foot peaks. Some disruption to the core will result but not enough to do a lot of damage to the circulation.
up next St Vincent direct strike
Ragged eye beginning to clear out on visible satellite imagery.

NEW BLOG!!!!!
Look how Richard was forecasted to curve in the first couple of days of developement. Im not buying into the trough until it gets closer in the forecast. Caribbean TCs are much harder to forecast.
Eye becoming more visible and defined.



Hurricane Tomas' Eye is about ready to hit St Vincent
923. P451
They're having their problems. Wouldn't trust these as center fixes to determine an exact course. Drew solid red line through the fixes in order. Perhaps the third one from the right (dropsonde) is what you want to discount and smooth out between the 1st, 2nd, and 4th.





I think Tomas will pull off a Ivan/Dean intensity trick and I think Tomas will pull a Ivan track up to 80-81W thereafter I think that he will recurve into Central Cuba and Bahamas maybe like Paloma after it left cayman Brac

(with the Paloma track I expect it to go out to open atlantic instead of turning around
Quoting tropicfreak:


Like Fay, over land?
lol Yeah, and quite a few others...
926. Mixed
Looks Like St Lucia Is Going To Get The North Eastern Side Of The Storm, Thats Not Good Because Quite A Bit Of Damage Has Occured On This Island Already, A Couple Big Trees Have Gone Down Near Me.
getting first rain bands in St. Croix USVI
Just had a smattering of rain with a gentle breeze and spoke to someone in the North of Grenada who told me it had been raining this am but not much more so far. How lucky were we? Stay safe all in St.Lucia and St. Vincent.

(Hope I'm OK posting this stuff here :) )