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Strengthening Cristobal Headed Out to Sea; 97L and Gulf of Mexico Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on August 25, 2014

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as the storm heads slowly north-northeastwards out to sea. Satellite loops show that Cristobal is struggling with wind shear, with a center of circulation that is completely exposed to view, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south and east sides of the center. The shear is expected to relax by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure captures the storm and accelerates it to the northeast, out to sea. Cristobal will likely be intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane as it brushes Bermuda on Wednesday, and the 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave that island a 41% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Cristobal over the Southeast Bahamas at 15:55 UTC (11:55 am EDT) on August 24, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 45 mph Image credit: NASA.

Keeping an eye on 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 12°N, 40°W on Monday morning, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would mostly stay in the moderate range for the next five days, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday, according to the Monday morning runs of the GFS and European models. One of the 00Z Monday runs of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the UKMET model, showed some weak development of 97L by Friday as it passes just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.

Keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico
In the Gulf of Mexico, a weak cold front is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms in the Louisiana coastal waters. This activity will spread to the Texas coastal waters by Wednesday. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, we should monitor this area for development. About 1/3 of the 20 members of the 06Z Monday GFS model ensemble showed some development in the Gulf on Thursday or Friday. (The GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) The preferred track of the system was to the west towards Texas.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific taken at 20:40 UTC (4:40 pm EDT) on August 24, 2014. At the time, Marie was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Mighty Hurricane Marie generating huge waves in Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Marie exploded into the Eastern Pacific's first Category 5 hurricane in four years on Sunday, maintaining Category 5 winds of 160 mph for six hours before an eyewall replacement cycle weakened the storm slightly. The hurricane was still a very powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on Monday morning, though satellite loops showed a steady degradation of the cloud pattern, with the eyewall cloud tops warming and the areal coverage of the strongest thunderstorms decreasing. The storm is headed northwest over cooler waters and into drier air, and will not affect any land areas. However, Marie's tropical storm-force winds cover a huge area of ocean, up to 310 miles from the center, and these winds are generating massive swells that are bringing high surf to the shores of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. These swells will pound the shores of Southern California Tuesday through Thursday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Los Angeles, where waves of 10 - 15 feet will potentially cause structural damage to piers and beachside property as well as significant beach erosion. The powerful surf will be accompanied by strong rip currents and long-shore currents, making for very hazardous swimming and surfing conditions. According to NWS in San Diego, Marie's ascension to Category 4 status on August 24 is the earliest in the year the Eastern Pacific has seen its 5th major hurricane since reliable records began in 1949.

You can see a spectacular loop of infrared satellite images of Marie as it intensified into a Category 5 storm on Sunday at the CIMSS University of Wisconsin.

The GOES-West Satellite will be in rapid scan mode over Marie on Monday, and loops will be available at the NOAA/RAMMB website.

The Western Pacific remains quiet, with no new named storms expected to develop over the next five days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently in a phase that creates sinking air of the Western Pacific. This discourages tropical cyclone formation. By late next week, this suppressed phase of the MJO will likely shift so that tropical storm formation is suppressed over the Atlantic, keeping the traditional peak portion of the Atlantic hurricane season quieter than usual.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Geez I think everyone on here wants a hurricane with that eye, it just doesn't happen all the time. If it has the winds of a hurricane, then it is a hurricane. Not everything is perfect you know. This guy is going to fool you and be like a real one before he's off the map.
1002. Patrap
Tops to 60K plus

Maybe 2005 sucked all the life out of the Atlantic? Anymore, I see a storm, it's either broke or headed out to sea..
I have been reading a lot of comments disparaging Cristobal based on its satellite appearance. It is true that it does not look like a conventional hurricane. However, both this system and Bertha before had sustained winds measured at hurricane force. As they are tropical systems, this makes them hurricanes.

The position of the system is key. Right now, it is to the west of the subtropical ridge. This drives its slow northward motion, soon to be faster to the NE. This also means that a substantially steeper pressure gradient exists between the system center and the western edge of the circulation.

The system's motion is in a direction to make the SE quadrant the strongest. The high pressure gradient amplifies the winds on this side of the system. To top it off, the shear direction pushes the heaviest convection SE of the storm center.

The result is hurricane force winds in a system that normally would only have winds at 50 knots or so.

Additionally, the central pressure did drop to and likely below 990mb, so Hurricane force winds are not that usual. 987mb is typically the pressure of a minimal hurricane, so Cristobal reaching hurricane strength at its present rather sketchy level of organization is not surprising.
Levi's recon site is stuck again.
1007. Patrap
2008 and 2012 were no picnics for Millions.

So,............
Quoting 1003. ProgressivePulse:

Maybe 2005 sucked all the life out of the Atlantic? Anymore, I see a storm, it's either broke or headed out to sea..


A lot are referencing 2005 as the end all of the Atlantic. It was certainly anomalous, very much so, it's extremely likely we will never see that type of year again.

But c'mon, there was 2007 with two land falling category fives. 2008 had some powerful category 4s, 2010 and 2011 were great years and even 2012 was cranking out some good storms.
I was taking one last look today and thought "Sigh, still 45mph." I was shocked to see the advisory at 75. Looks worse than Bertha.
Quoting 999. sar2401:

Looks like our chase is kind of down the tubes for now...


I have about 50% confidence we'll see the subtropical rose nose westward into the United States during September. The pattern flipped around the middle of August, as evidenced by the enormous heat ridge sitting over the eastern United States. The global models are often too quick to break down deep amplified continental ridges and troughs (take the troughs into consideration for the last few years), and mid-latitude cooling would also support heights increasing farther east as well.

My forecast is based on persistence and the fact that this year hasn't seen troughs quite as far south-reaching.

As long as the ridge remains over the eastern US, the western Atlantic should light up. We're already seeing evidence of that with Cristobal and now the GoM.
Quoting 998. sar2401:

Well, that Spanish accent tells me you're Italian. :-)
Not bad actually my dad was italian my mom is honduran. You won a cookie.
Quoting 1000. KoritheMan:



I picked one because Ed is the shortened version of the name of the main character of Fullmetal Alchemist. He's quite awesome.
Prefer Mustang he is epic.
Quoting 984. KoritheMan:



What if we get another trash low in the Gulf of Mexico? Even on my doorstep, trash is still trash ya know. ;)
I won't care if I got a crappy ts I would take whatever is given to me.
1012. Dakster
Quoting 1004. MaxL1023:

I have been reading a lot of comments disparaging Cristobal based on its satellite appearance. It is true that it does not look like a conventional hurricane. However, both this system and Bertha before had sustained winds measured at hurricane force. As they are tropical systems, this makes them hurricanes.

The position of the system is key. Right now, it is to the west of the subtropical ridge. This drives its slow northward motion, soon to be faster to the NE. This also means that a substantially steeper pressure gradient exists between the system center and the western edge of the circulation.

The system's motion is in a direction to make the SE quadrant the strongest. The high pressure gradient amplifies the winds on this side of the system. To top it off, the shear direction pushes the heaviest convection SE of the storm center.

The result is hurricane force winds in a system that normally would only have winds at 50 knots or so.

Additionally, the central pressure did drop to and likely below 990mb, so Hurricane force winds are not that usual. 987mb is typically the pressure of a minimal hurricane, so Cristobal reaching hurricane strength at its present rather sketchy level of organization is not surprising.


In other words it looks like a low end Cat 1 Hurricane...
Quoting 1008. LostTomorrows:



A lot are referencing 2005 as the end all of the Atlantic. It was certainly anomalous, very much so, it's extremely likely we will never see that type of year again.

But c'mon, there was 2007 with two land falling category fives. 2008 had some powerful category 4s, 2010 and 2011 were great years and even 2012 was cranking out some good storms.
2008 and 2010 were epic years.
by Tuesday night winds will go up to 100 mph
1015. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I picked one because Ed is the shortened version of the name of the main character of Fullmetal Alchemist. He's quite awesome.
I'm sure he is. I'm old. I have no idea what you're talking about.
1016. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You think that's bad?

Category 2 Hurricane Earl:

Hey, I got a lot of rain from Earl. Don't be talking bad about Earl. He was my buddy.
What interesting is 3 Hurricanes before Sept 1
In 2013 we didn't even see our first till Sept
In 2011 we only saw 2 Hurricane one which continued thru Sept.
In 2010 same as 2011
In 2009 first one was in August
In 2008 the 3rd one formed in Aug continued thru Sept.
In 2007 first one formed in August
In 2006 first Hurricane formed in August
In 2002 first and all the hurricanes formed in Sept.
In 2001 first hurricane didn't form till a Sept
In 2000 first hurricane first and second formed in August

So right now we are a head
1019. sar2401
Quoting winter123:
I was taking one last look today and thought "Sigh, still 45mph." I was shocked to see the advisory at 75. Looks worse than Bertha.
Even those who have been wasting our entire evening exchanging pleasantries were shocked at the 20 minute after 8 advisory...especially when it disappeared for about 20 minutes. It's all been downhill from Arthur. I can only imagine what Zeke, or whoever or whatever the Z name storm is, will look like. Probably like some kind of lobster...or a rattlesnake.
Quoting 1017. wunderkidcayman:

What interesting is 3 Hurricanes before Sept 1
In 2013 we didn't even see our first till Sept
In 2011 we only saw 2 Hurricane one which continued thru Sept.
In 2010 same as 2011
In 2009 first one was in August
In 2008 the 3rd one formed in Aug continued thru Sept.
In 2007 first one formed in August
In 2006 first Hurricane formed in August
In 2002 first and all the hurricanes formed in Sept.
In 2001 first hurricane didn't form till a Sept
In 2000 first hurricane first and second formed in August

So right now we are a head

all the hurricanes right next to east coast so far..!!!
Quoting 1015. sar2401:

I'm sure he is. I'm old. I have no idea what you're talking about.
Anime Sar is what my generation see.
1023. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
What interesting is 3 Hurricanes before Sept 1
In 2013 we didn't even see our first till Sept
In 2011 we only saw 2 Hurricane one which continued thru Sept.
In 2010 same as 2011
In 2009 first one was in August
In 2008 the 3rd one formed in Aug continued thru Sept.
In 2007 first one formed in August
In 2006 first Hurricane formed in August
In 2002 first and all the hurricanes formed in Sept.
In 2001 first hurricane didn't form till a Sept
In 2000 first hurricane first and second formed in August

So right now we are a head
Look, "a head" is where I used to go tinkle on the boat. "Ahead" is when we're ahead of something, like hurricane stuff, or that woman's husband that's been looking for us. Let's get this straight.
Quoting hurricanes2018:

all the hurricanes right next to east coast so far..!!!

I don't think this trend will continue
1025. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Anime Sar is what my generation see.
Don't call me Anime. Is that another weird hurricane name? I like Ed...or Fred, not that weird stuff.
Quoting 1017. wunderkidcayman:

What interesting is 3 Hurricanes before Sept 1
In 2013 we didn't even see our first till Sept
In 2011 we only saw 2 Hurricane one which continued thru Sept.
In 2010 same as 2011
In 2009 first one was in August
In 2008 the 3rd one formed in Aug continued thru Sept.
In 2007 first one formed in August
In 2006 first Hurricane formed in August
In 2002 first and all the hurricanes formed in Sept.
In 2001 first hurricane didn't form till a Sept
In 2000 first hurricane first and second formed in August

So right now we are a head


They've all occurred in the mid-latitudes. Not a good sign for activity.
1027. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I have about 50% confidence we'll see the subtropical rose nose westward into the United States during September. The pattern flipped around the middle of August, as evidenced by the enormous heat ridge sitting over the eastern United States. The global models are often too quick to break down deep amplified continental ridges and troughs (take the troughs into consideration for the last few years), and mid-latitude cooling would also support heights increasing farther east as well.

My forecast is based on persistence and the fact that this year hasn't seen troughs quite as far south-reaching.

As long as the ridge remains over the eastern US, the western Atlantic should light up. We're already seeing evidence of that with Cristobal and now the GoM.
I just wanted a yes or no so I'd know if I should gas up the car, not a long dissertation.
Quoting KoritheMan:


They've all occurred in the mid-latitudes. Not a good sign for activity.

I don't think this trend will continue
moving west at 20 mph its move over 400 miles in one day
1009: I disagree Bertha was worser
1031. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Fay. Fayed?
Fayed would work too if we had to combine a female and male name to keep all the various pressure groups off our backs.
1032. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I don't think this trend will continue
You said that before. You can't use the same reply twice. It's a blog rule.
2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?
2014 Hurricane Arthur Land fall on the outerbanks of NC
1035. ncstorm
Quick post but anyone happen to see the 18z Navgem..

last frame at 180 hours..first storm heading for the US east coast..

Quoting 1033. ProgressivePulse:

2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?


Arthur was a Category 2, dude.
Quoting 1033. ProgressivePulse:

2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?


Arthur (Cat2)
1039. ncstorm
Good night all..

12z JMA at 144 hours
Quoting hurricanes2018:
moving west at 20 mph its move over 400 miles in one day

Hmm not looking too bad at the moment
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

I just wanted a yes or no so I'd know if I should gas up the car, not a long dissertation.


*blushes*

Sorry.

*looks the other way*
1042. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, neither Salt Pond or Georgetown are as sleepy as they once were ... lol ... somebody's bottling water on Long Island, from what I saw, so I guess it'd be easier to get some 5 gallon bottles for drinking.... I suppose for bathing the sea is always there... The thing is, the further SE you go, the drier it gets. You'd really need the "inside track" to ensure supplies further south than Long Island...

I will definitely ask my dad about this tomorrow. My curiosity is now stirred on the subject ....
Do you still get down here from time to time?
Last time I was there was 2009 for some diving, plus losing the house at the Atlantis. No more boat though. Had to sell it when my wife died, darn it. Since I have another house now, I was thinking I needed to get back down to the Atlantis and see if I could win my other house back. :-)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?


Umm this year US get Arthur
1045. xcool
Quoting ncstorm:
Good night all..

12z JMA at 144 hours


oh noo we all doom lol
1046. sar2401
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Especially if you're looking for action and you live in the......Caymans.
Wait. You mean none of those have hit...the Caymans?
1047. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


*blushes*

Sorry.

*looks the other way*
Oh, sure you are. You're just practicing up for the essay part of the GED. You can't fool me. :-)
Go away Christobal I'm bored out of my ever-lovin mind with you!
1049. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I'm not looking for anything
Flagged
Of course you are. We all are. Why else would we be here? Nothing wrong with that, as long as you let the rest of us get first dibs occasionally.
Quoting 1037. CosmicEvents:


Especially if you're looking for action and you live in the......Caymans.


I'm in the mid-latitudes so I still have hope. :P
Quoting 907. Patrap:


Almost looks like Dumbo!!
1052. sar2401
Seriously though, anyone ever remember a time that a TS got upgraded to a hurricane, the Doc just let it ride until later, and we just joked around about stuff the whole evening? What a pathetic mess of a season...
Quoting 1033. ProgressivePulse:

2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?
Arthur?
1054. Patrap
Yer missin out Kori....


Quoting 1054. Patrap:

Yer missin out Kori....





I'm about 60 miles to your west. :)
Some forget that Ike, Isaac, Irene, and Sandy all caused major damage, "not necessarily wind related damage" but storm surge and flooding damage. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale is a scale that measures the intensity of wind and its corresponding damage in that regards. 3 of the 4 names on this list are now retired. To further my point TS Allison caused life threatening flooding and major damage as a result and that too was retired.
Looking at 500 mb GFS forecast heights over North America, even though it shows 97L continuing with enough of a Northerly component in its WNW motion it gets North of the islands (with no real development, but it can be tracked via vorticity and PW) the first trough that might have a shot at getting it is forecast to be fairly low amplitude and might not catch it. Still, the GFS forecast that far North that far East, probably OTS. If the GFS is correct...



97L is entering stage right...

BTW 97L and that's as far as I'll go.

Quoting 1052. sar2401:

Seriously though, anyone ever remember a time that a TS got upgraded to a hurricane, the Doc just let it ride until later, and we just joked around about stuff the whole evening? What a pathetic mess of a season...


Can't even get a decent looking hurricane lately. Cristobal has strengthened in such an odd way, based on the satellite presentation. Lopsided and sheared looking occasionally achieving more symmetry before decoupling again. That, and as all the other hurricanes in the SW Atlantic in recent history have done, it is going to make a beeline straight to the NE, possibly posing a threat to Bermuda. At least the storm has contributed to a good breeze here and slightly less hot weather. Haven't had much rain the whole month. Everything is starting to dry out here.
1061. Patrap
Quoting 1056. KoritheMan:



I'm about 60 miles to your west. :)


Praireville .

Quoting sar2401:
Of course you are. We all are. Why else would we be here? Nothing wrong with that, as long as you let the rest of us get first dibs occasionally.

I never joined weather underground for that reason
Quoting 1033. ProgressivePulse:

2006 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2007 - Humberto (Cat 1)

2008 - Gustav (Cat2), Ike (Cat2), Dolly (Cat1)

2009 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2010 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2011- Irene (Cat1)

2012 - Isaac (Cat 1)

2013 - No US Hurricane Landfalls

2014?


On the final NHC report, a small part of Suffolk County, New York received sustained 65 knot winds while Sandy was still classified as a hurricane by NHC. The landfall in New Jersey was as a warm core post-tropical storm, but Sandy counts as a Cat 1 hurricane for New York. Or a small part of Suffolk County, anyway.
1064. Danali
Maybe not the best place to ask this, and if not, could someone help me know where to look: I have been watching the SOI numbers, and while back at the beginning of August it was .11 on the 90 day average, since then it has been firmly in the negatives, and now we are at -3.33 for the 90 day average and -9.3 for the 30 day. I am having trouble locating which markers or numbers are important for an El Nino year. I just see "negative SOI is another indicator" but I can't figure out what numbers they need to reach and for what time. Any help is appreciated.
1065. Siker
Lol, the upcoming pattern is kind of mocking per the GFS to anyone hoping for a landfall. 6 straight days of solid ridging off the east coast, a true Bermuda high, but when 97L finally makes it to the Bahamas, the trough from hell is approaching and might make it in time:



Quoting 1057. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Some forget that Ike, Isaac, Irene, and Sandy all caused major damage, "not necessarily wind related damage" but storm surge and flooding damage. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale is a scale that measures the intensity of wind and its corresponding damage in that regards. 3 of the 4 names on this list are now retired. To further my point TS Allison caused life threatening flooding and major damage as a result and that too was retired.


A lot of the younger people started watching hurricanes during the early and mid 2000s, when there was a lot of blocking. Storms didn't recurve then. It wasn't a thing.

That creates bias.
Quoting 1065. Siker:

Lol, the upcoming pattern is kind of mocking per the GFS to anyone hoping for a landfall. 6 straight days of solid ridging off the east coast, a true Bermuda high, but when 97L finally makes it to the Bahamas, the trough from hell is approaching and might make it in time:






The "trough from hell"? It's a progressive shortwave, dude.
1068. Dakster
Quoting 1061. Patrap:



Praireville .




When is the gumbo gonna be ready, Patrap?
1069. Patrap
1070. Patrap
Quoting 1068. Dakster:



When is the gumbo gonna be ready, Patrap?


Friday round 2pm.
Sar your scuppering hilarious tonight. You must be hammered. Your cold calculating practicality has been replaced with some George Calinesque humor. Had me laughing for quite awhile. So we had Rosanne Barre and Rosie Odonelle hurricanes last two, season is shaping up to be a huge bust for national forecasters again. We'll reach between 10-14 storms now it seems with 6-8 hurricanes, who knows about majors?
1072. xcool
more rain
1073. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:


The "trough from hell"? It's a progressive shortwave, dude.


Sorry, not totally experienced with types and strengths of troughs, looked pretty decent on anomaly maps.
Quoting 1071. DeepSeaRising:

Sar your scuppering hilarious tonight. You must be hammered. Your cold calculating practicality has been replaced with some George Calinesque humor. Had me laughing for quite awhile. So we had Rosanne Barre and Rosie Odonelle hurricanes last two, season is shaping up to be a huge bust for national forecasters again. We'll reach between 10-14 storms now it seems with 6-8 hurricanes, who knows about majors?


I know about major headaches. We've had a lot of those. :)
Quoting 1066. KoritheMan:



A lot of the younger people started watching hurricanes during the early and mid 2000s, when there was a lot of blocking. Storms didn't recurve then. It wasn't a thing.

That creates bias.


I started tracking hurricanes as an eleven year old in 1995, with Hurricane Erin. Most storms recurved back then too. Lately they all have either recurved before FL or gone WAY south (the ones that go south have been scarce). This, combined with a general lack of impressive storms has made for a lot of boring tropical weather watching.
Quoting 1064. Danali:

Maybe not the best place to ask this, and if not, could someone help me know where to look: I have been watching the SOI numbers, and while back at the beginning of August it was .11 on the 90 day average, since then it has been firmly in the negatives, and now we are at -3.33 for the 90 day average and -9.3 for the 30 day. I am having trouble locating which markers or numbers are important for an El Nino year. I just see "negative SOI is another indicator" but I can't figure out what numbers they need to reach and for what time. Any help is appreciated.


As far as I know there isn't one. But I'm not positive on that.
Quoting 1066. KoritheMan:



A lot of the younger people started watching hurricanes during the early and mid 2000s, when there was a lot of blocking. Storms didn't recurve then. It wasn't a thing.

That creates bias.
You are not getting my point, I'm not discussing the pattern, more so the categorization of storms and the ones that make landfall. Anything below a Category 3 Hurricane is capable of doing just as much or even more damage then a Category 3 or higher hurricane. Mainly because of the storm surge and inland flooding. In fact, Sandy and Ike are ahead of Wilma and Andrew for most costliest Atlantic Hurricanes.
Quoting 1075. HurrMichaelOrl:



I started tracking hurricanes as an eleven year old in 1995, with Hurricane Erin. Most storms recurved back then too. Lately they all have either recurved before FL or gone WAY south (the ones that go south have been scarce). This, combined with a general lack of impressive storms has made for a lot of boring tropical weather watching.


It'll reverse eventually. Besides, we still usually get "lucky" (or unlucky depending on your paradigm) and have one good US landfall sneak through.
1079. Dakster
Quoting 1070. Patrap:



Friday round 2pm.


Can you make one without oil for me?
Quoting 1077. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You are not getting my point, I'm not discussing the pattern, more so the categorization of storms and the ones that make landfall. Anything below a Category 3 Hurricane is capable of doing just as much or even more damage then a Category 3 or higher hurricane. Mainly because of the storm surge and inland flooding. In fact, Sandy and Ike are ahead of Wilma and Andrew for most costliest Atlantic Hurricanes.


I got your point. I just used it as an excuse to create a new one. Sue me. :)
1081. silas
Yawn. You know it's bad when when Wisconsin weather is more interesting than the tropics in late August. Night everyone.
Bed time, 97L has a closed low as of tau 183, is still heading WNW, and might beat the trough for a possible Carolinas landfall.

7.5 day play by play of the GFS isn't always correct. But at least it has a chance to impact the US, and stay well clear of the Gulf.
I don't know the numbers, but most true CV storms recurve, the few that don't tend to be memorable.
Quoting 1066. KoritheMan:



A lot of the younger people started watching hurricanes during the early and mid 2000s, when there was a lot of blocking. Storms didn't recurve then. It wasn't a thing.

That creates bias.


Plus a lot of morons think every season is going to be above average... like that is statistically possible
Quoting 1073. Siker:



Sorry, not totally experienced with types and strengths of troughs, looked pretty decent on anomaly maps.


It doesn't take much of a trough to cause below normal height anomalies to appear. That's pretty much what a trough is, actually; an anomalous area of low pressure.
Quoting 1083. EdMahmoud:

I don't know the numbers, but most true CV storms recurve, the few that don't tend to be memorable.


Bingo.
Quoting 1081. silas:

Yawn. You know it's bad when when Wisconsin weather is more interesting than the tropics in late August. Night everyone.



Yes we're watching a cold front and whether it will go far enough north to bring us moderate rain and thunderstorms on Thursday/Friday. So exciting! Tropics right now are very exciting IMO. Lots going on, including a hurricane. We, a week ago, though we might have to wait till September for anything. Fog tomorrow for me here in SC Wisconsin; suck that tropics! Season is off and running.
1081: No it's not. Have you been checking the tropics lately lol
Quoting 1064. Danali:

Maybe not the best place to ask this, and if not, could someone help me know where to look: I have been watching the SOI numbers, and while back at the beginning of August it was .11 on the 90 day average, since then it has been firmly in the negatives, and now we are at -3.33 for the 90 day average and -9.3 for the 30 day. I am having trouble locating which markers or numbers are important for an El Nino year. I just see "negative SOI is another indicator" but I can't figure out what numbers they need to reach and for what time. Any help is appreciated.



I believe that it is -7.0 but not sure if it for 90 days or not
Quoting 1079. Dakster:



Can you make one without oil for me?
Does he have to ride his bike to the store too? geesh. :)
1091. Siker
Anyway, my talk of the trough was for nought. This happens:



Quoting 1080. KoritheMan:



I got your point. I just used it as an excuse to create a new one. Sue me. :)
Oh okay. You brought up a good point about the blocking pattern as well that was in place from 2000-2005. From 1995-2000 it was mostly about East Coast storms.
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:



Arthur was a Category 2, dude.


Yeah I know. Year still ongoing so I put a ? as there isn't a final tally yet. Figured it wouldn't be best to compare an incomplete year to other complete years. Arthur may be the one and only?
Quoting 1091. Siker:

Anyway, my talk of the trough was for nought. This happens:






Into GA? That never happens, lol.
Next week looks pretty active across the Atlantic, ahead of the strong downwelling convectively-suppressed (it's 1am...) kelvin wave. The GFS suggests that 97L will develop after passing through the northern Leeward Islands, and the model eventually takes it into the Georgia-South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm. Meanwhile, it shows the tropical wave over western Africa moving offshore in a few days and becoming a strong Category 1 hurricane while passing through the southern Cape Verde Islands (dubious). Lastly, the GFS shows a high-amplitude tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean interacting with the monsoon trough, leading to a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche in the long range.

Oh, and it shows Cristobal becoming a major hurricane on his way out:

Growing support from the models tonight on 97L.
1097. FOREX
Quoting 1096. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Growing support from the models tonight on 97L.
so no chance at all its a gulf storm?
Time: 04:53:00Z
Coordinates: 25.4667N 72.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,411 meters (~ 4,629 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 988.7 mb (~ 29.20 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 158° at 4 knots (From the SSE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (~ 70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 7 knots* (~ 8.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr* (~ 0.08 in/hr*)
Quoting 1097. FOREX:

so no chance at all its a gulf storm?

For next week yes it does
How "fitting" on the 50th anniversary of Dora.......believe me JAX can't handle it now...


Quoting 1097. FOREX:

so no chance at all its a gulf storm?


I wouldn't say NO chance, but slim unless it can stay very weak.
Quoting 1097. FOREX:

so no chance at all its a gulf storm?
Ask that question in a couple days it's too far out in time to know and still out in the Central Atlantic. The synoptic pattern has been progressively changing from longwaves to shortwaves to ridging. And there is always a chance something gets into the GOM, just depends on timing and location of these features. We also never speak in absolutes in Meteorology.
1103. FOREX
Quoting 1101. KoritheMan:



I wouldn't say NO chance, but slim unless it can stay very weak.
was hoping you or I would get our storm out of it.lol
Anyways I'm out have a goodnight all.
1105. Dakster
Quoting 1090. Abacosurf:

Does he have to ride his bike to the store too? geesh. :)


No I can pick him up and take him...
That's a pretty darn big storm in the C-ATL. High latitude though.





1107. Dakster
PP - If one forms that big - it needs to stay out to sea...
1108. FOREX
can someone post updated spaghetti models for 97L, I don't know where to find them. thanks.
I would like to see that real time though. That thing nearly takes up 2/3rd's of the Atlantic.
1110. BayFog


NW Pacific: No dry air here.
1111. FOREX
Happy 49th Birthday to me.
1112. Dakster
Quoting 1111. FOREX:

Happy 49th Birthday to me.


HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!

1113. TXCWC
0Z GFS / 0Z GEM / 12Z NAVGEM run (for what it's worth) now developing invest 97 in the 7 day timeframe and possible other development in Gulf and more in the deep Atlantic. If Euro latches onto it will be basically a done deal. Active Atlantic period looks like is around the corner.

GFS 180hrs possible Gulf and East Coast threats near the same time


Quoting 1111. FOREX:

Happy 49th Birthday to me.


God you're old.

:)
Quoting FOREX:
Happy 49th Birthday to me.


Happy Birthday! :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


God you're old.

:)


Oh hush you! My granddaughter is now taller than I am. :P
1117. FOREX
Quoting 1114. KoritheMan:



God you're old.

:)
senior discounts coming in a few years Kori. my Wife works for the same company you do but store 818.
1118. Dakster
Quoting 1114. KoritheMan:



God you're old.

:)


Easy there young whipper snapper...

Quoting TXCWC:
0Z GFS / 0Z GEM / 12Z NAVGEM run (for what it's worth) now developing invest 97 in the 7 day timeframe and possible other development in Gulf and more in the deep Atlantic. If Euro latches onto it will be basically a done deal. Active Atlantic period looks like is around the corner.

GFS 180hrs possible Gulf and East Coast threats near the same time




Well, the 12z Euro had a storm into the Corpus Christi area at 9 days. But had 97l undeveloped shooting the Florida straits.
Quoting 1116. AtHomeInTX:



Oh hush you! My granddaughter is now taller than I am. :P


It all goes downhill after 20.

I mean... s***. Reverse my age and I'd be 32. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


It all goes downhill after 20.

I mean... s***. Reverse my age and I'd be 32. :P


Lol. Don't worry the best is yet to come. :)
1122. FOREX
Quoting 1119. AtHomeInTX:



Well, the 12z Euro had a storm into the Corpus Christi area at 9 days. But had 97l undeveloped shooting the Florida straits.
Seems as if 97L is already on its way towards development. Euro is out to lunch.lol
1124. Dakster
Quoting 1120. KoritheMan:



It all goes downhill after 20.

I mean... s***. Reverse my age and I'd be 32. :P


Yep. Pretty soon you will be taking all kinds of meds... Then some joint or joints in your body will decide it doesn't want to work anymore - for me that is the knees. Eyesight and/or hearing loss...

And then finally incontinence, right Grothar? (I haven't gotten there yet)
Quoting 1121. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. Don't worry the best is yet to come. :)


How optimistic.
Quoting FOREX:
Seems as if 97L is already on its way towards development. Euro is out to lunch.lol


Wouldn't be the first time. :) But as we all know, ain't no telling what it will do at this point.
1127. FOREX
Is Cristobal moving west yet? Just kidding. Hate being a wishcaster.
Quoting 1126. AtHomeInTX:



Wouldn't be the first time. :) But as we all know, ain't no telling what it will do at this point.


Euro seems to latch on when waves actually start doing something. It's usually the last to catch onto cyclogenesis.
1129. Dakster
Quoting 1127. FOREX:

Is Cristobal moving west yet? Just kidding. Hate being a wishcaster.


When did he stop moving west?
1130. FOREX
Quoting 1124. Dakster:



Yep. Pretty soon you will be taking all kinds of meds... Then some joint or joints in your body will decide it doesn't want to work anymore - for me that is the knees. Eyesight and/or hearing loss...

And then finally incontinence, right Grothar? (I haven't gotten there yet)
Don't forget teeth falling out.
Quoting 1124. Dakster:



Yep. Pretty soon you will be taking all kinds of meds... Then some joint or joints in your body will decide it doesn't want to work anymore - for me that is the knees. Eyesight and/or hearing loss...

And then finally incontinence, right Grothar? (I haven't gotten there yet)


I better not ever get incontinent.
Quoting KoritheMan:


How optimistic.


Oh wow! Guess it is. How unlike me. Well, I did miss my nap today. So I may not be quite myself. lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Euro seems to latch on when waves actually start doing something. It's usually the last to catch onto cyclogenesis.


Yeah, noticed that lately.
1134. Dakster
Quoting 1130. FOREX:

Don't forget teeth falling out.


I just applied a broad brush of the fun of getting old. THere are many others too. One that is getting me know is short term memory loss... I can't remember where i put something down I had a minute ago...

Kori - I'll take incontinence over ED though... Don't suffer form either though.
1135. FOREX
Quoting 1129. Dakster:



When did he stop moving west?
I don't know, like 9 hours ago I saw a blurb from StormTrackerscott about a westward movement by Tuesday if he is still stalled.
Quoting FOREX:
Don't forget teeth falling out.


seriously not helping my argument y'all. lol
1137. FOREX
Quoting 1134. Dakster:



I just applied a broad brush of the fun of getting old. THere are many others too. One that is getting me know is short term memory loss... I can't remember where i put something down I had a minute ago...

Kori - I'll take incontinence over ED though... Don't suffer form either though.
With me the first to go was my eyesight.
1138. Dakster
I have been in many places, but I’ve never been in Cahoots.Apparently, you can’t go alone. You have to be in Cahoots with someone.

I’ve also never been in Cognito. I hear no one recognizes you there.

I have, however, been in Sane. They don’t have an airport; you have to be driven there.I have made several trips there, thanks to my friends, family and work. Not an interesting place.

I would like to go to Conclusions, but you have to jump, and I’m not too much on physical activity anymore.

I have also been in Doubt. That is a sad place to go, and I try not to visit there too often.

I’ve been in Flexible, but only when it was very important to stand firm and some people don’t like me there.

Sometimes I’m in Capable, and I go there more often as I’m getting older. When I am there I often don’t recognize it.

One of my favorite places to be is in Suspense! It really gets the adrenalin flowing and pumps up the old heart! At my age I need all the stimuli I can get!

And, sometimes I think I am in Vincible, but life shows me I am not.

I have been in Trouble many times. The older I get, the easier it is to get there.

I hear you eventually end up in continent, a wet and damp place that you don't want to be in.
Quoting 1134. Dakster:



I just applied a broad brush of the fun of getting old. THere are many others too. One that is getting me know is short term memory loss... I can't remember where i put something down I had a minute ago...

Kori - I'll take incontinence over ED though... Don't suffer form either though.


ED would be worse.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Cristobal, located a couple of hundred miles
north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1141. JRRP
97L has a chance to either go north or west after it nears the islands. GFS and ECMWF show lower heights between 700 and 500 mb, but even the mid-level ridging appears stronger north of the Caribbean than it was with Cristobal. Could be interesting days ahead if it doesn't recurve.
1143. Jaxpan
persistence... out to sea.. sorry
Quoting 1142. KoritheMan:

97L has a chance to either go north or west after it nears the islands. GFS and ECMWF show lower heights between 700 and 500 mb, but even the mid-level ridging appears stronger north of the Caribbean than it was with Cristobal. Could be interesting days ahead if it doesn't recurve.
Quoting 1143. Jaxpan:

persistence... out to sea.. sorry


I didn't say it would or wouldn't go out to sea. I was stating possibilities. Either scenario is viable, if it even develops.

All we really know is that it'll head westward in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles.
1145. LargoFl
1146. LargoFl
I am watching invest 97L TO
1148. ncstorm
Good Morning ..first day of school here..up at the crack of dawn..

00z run of the Navgem..first storm heading for the east coast on the last frame..



06z is running now..
maybe invest 98L in A FEW DAYS FROM NOW..
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It's 73 degrees yet again this morning. After hours of looking like we were getting rain and a dangerous thunderstorm warning, it finally rained at about 10:30 last night for a few minutes.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Berry Stuffed French Toast with Vanilla Yogurt Sauce, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, bacon, egg and cheese Breakfast Cupcakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or Creole coffee. Enjoy!
WATCHING
1153. K8eCane
well i have awakened and seen my idol Carl Parker so im good to go...morning everybody
BIG ??
even though the models say it has a chance to move into the carib more likely than not where my $ is its following cristobal out to sea. the trend is set danger lies if something develops in the carib otherwise its a fish
here we go again


Well no matter what it looks like, at least we have a hurricane that's not going to impact any sort of land directly.
And we have 97L
And a possible CV system that now the NHC is predicting too
And something to watch in the Gulf.

Surely a big change from last Tuesday...
this tropical wave got a nice spin to this morning to no yellow x on this one yet
1159. FOREX
I'm giving 97L a zero chance of development, sorry.


the tropical wave at 20%
watch out for invest 97L I gave it 50% in the next five days
new update soon at 8am on the hurricane and invest 97L
big ?? here we have a low at AFRICAN COAST but no yellow x for it now
Quoting 1163. hurricanes2018:

big ?? here we have a low at AFRICAN COAST but no yellow x for it now


NHC sorta of hid that yellow X. If you go to the 5-day forecast, it is still there.
Quoting 1150. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It's 73 degrees yet again this morning. After hours of looking like we were getting rain and a dangerous thunderstorm warning, it finally rained at about 10:30 last night for a few minutes.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Berry Stuffed French Toast with Vanilla Yogurt Sauce, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, bacon, egg and cheese Breakfast Cupcakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or Creole coffee. Enjoy!


I can't come down to LA but this always sounds good in the morning even if it is off topic
We have Electricity AND it's NOT raining!!

OK... I am declaring today as D. O. D.
(Those of you who have been through such Tropical systems may guess correctly...)
DRYING OUT DAY

This morning I emptied another .5 inches out of the Rain Gage... SO...
Here is my rain cumulative total: My "official" total rainfall recorded during this storm was...
Cristobal's total rainfall recorded here in Long Bay Hills IS:
SEVENTEEN AND ONE TENTH INCHES!!! (17.1 inches)
WOW, a new experience for me! WOW again!

Providenciales
Turks abd Caicos Islands
It looks like we're in the clear this week from the tropics.So We can have our Family reunion this week.Thank goodness.Cristobal is out to sea and I'm not sure about the future of 97L.
Quoting 1134. Dakster:



I just applied a broad brush of the fun of getting old. THere are many others too. One that is getting me know is short term memory loss... I can't remember where i put something down I had a minute ago...

Kori - I'll take incontinence over ED though... Don't suffer form either though.


For me the #1 problem is healing time. When I get injured it takes a long long time to heal and I have had tendinitis in various places (plantar fascitis for a year, off and on tennis AND golfer's elbow from gardening, specifically turning over rocky soil by hand, sore knees). And I have to be careful.. I tore a knee meniscus just helping somebody move.. I lifted an 80 pound bookshelf and injured it. You retain full muscle strength into your 50s but it becomes increasingly dangerous to USE that strength. Flexibility also declined sharply for me after 30. There has been no noticeable mental change at all (I wasn't any sharper at 25).

When you turn 40 or so your eye lenses become inflexible and you have one focal length. People with good vision need reading glasses when this happens. People with nearsightedness need bifocals but we have the advantage of being able to read and do close work without glasses and this is a HUGE benefit of myopia after 40. I didn't much care when I needed glasses at age 11 but I REALLY despise the loss of lens flexibility.
Good morning. Lots to watch in the tropics right now but no imminent threats.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
1171. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
We have Electricity AND it's NOT raining!!

OK... I am declaring today as D. O. D.
(Those of you who have been through such Tropical systems may guess correctly...)
DRYING OUT DAY

This morning I emptied another .5 inches out of the Rain Gage... SO...
Here is my rain cumulative total: My "official" total rainfall recorded during this storm was...
Cristobal's total rainfall recorded here in Long Bay Hills IS:
SEVENTEEN AND ONE TENTH INCHES!!! (17.1 inches)
WOW, a new experience for me! WOW again!

Providenciales
Turks abd Caicos Islands

If we ever got that kind of rainfall here in the hills, it would be a Catastrophe !

Happy you are seeing some sunshine today.
We got a brief, heavy shower last night, and it's an overcast morning.
Flying to Tobago after lunch for 4 days, so I trust that you guys will keep an eye on things while I'm gone ?
Models seem to wanna bring 97L to N FL or even GA at days 9 & 10. Models also develope 97L beyond 5 days .

GFS


CMC


NAVGEM
Please feel free to post model runs and ensemble guidance on my Florida Blog.

Link
1174. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models seem to wanna bring 97L to N FL or even GA at days 9 & 10. Models also develope 97L beyond 5 days .

GFS


CMC


NAVGEM


Ugh, not again Scott. I guess FL is doomed again. Every week we get nailed by a fantasy storm lol. Throw enough darts maybe you'll hit one day.
Quoting 1172. StormTrackerScott:

Models seem to wanna bring 97L to N FL or even GA at days 9 & 10. Models also develope 97L beyond 5 days .

GFS


CMC


NAVGEM

I SAY IT before invest 97L need to be watch all 24 hours a day
1176. beell
Quoting 1166. CaicosRetiredSailor:

We have Electricity AND it's NOT raining!!

OK... I am declaring today as D. O. D.
(Those of you who have been through such Tropical systems may guess correctly...)
DRYING OUT DAY

This morning I emptied another .5 inches out of the Rain Gage... SO...
Here is my rain cumulative total: My "official" total rainfall recorded during this storm was...
Cristobal's total rainfall recorded here in Long Bay Hills IS:
SEVENTEEN AND ONE TENTH INCHES!!! (17.1 inches)
WOW, a new experience for me! WOW again!

Providenciales
Turks abd Caicos Islands


Definitely a fish storm, CRS.
#1168

I hear ya. Flexibility however does not have to be lost. And it can be regained. Gentle stretching , or perhaps gentle yoga will help.. I am more " flexible" than many of my friends decades younger. Use it or lose it comes to mind here. Get down on the floor and play with the dog or cat or grandkid LOL
getting buzy now!!
who makes the money on developing these models. do they give refunds?
Aww, I was hoping Cristobal was going to look pretty when I got up. :( Well at least he hasn't been completely sheared again and has some nice convection partially covering him. :)

Also, it rained all day yesterday and has been raining all day today too. I think I've had around 2-2.5 inches of rain the last 2 days!
1181. tramp96
Quoting 1165. georgevandenberghe:



I can't come down to LA but this always sounds good in the morning even if it is off topic


Breakfast is always on topic : )
WE are going to have invest 98L SOON by tonight
1183. GatorWX
Morning. Quite an odd looking storm. Almost looks like some sort of hybrid warm/cold core. I wonder if we'll see the pressure begin to drop without corresponding satellite presentation. I know everyone on here is annoyed by these sorta pathetic systems of recent, but studying them has been intriguing. I'm not entirely sure if it's the gyrating monsoonal waves are the cause, the atmosphere around the systems (dry air and shear) or a combination of the two. I've seen many similarities between them lately. It's only been in our atl basin that I've noticed. It's been interesting after watching season after season with monsters. Something on a big scale seems to have changed. It's been evident since '07-'09 and since.


97L sould be no has ex 97L has it has been drop from the back up navy site all so best track has not update ex 97L sicne 6:16pm last night so what ever mode maps you post for ex 97L you likey find that they are old
1185. Jaxpan
Did you read this before you posted?
Quoting 1184. Tazmanian:

97L sould be no has ex 97L has it has been drop from the back up navy site all so best track has not update ex 97L sicne 6:16pm last night so what ever mode maps you post for ex 97L you likey find that they are old
Jaxpan-----don't go there.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1185. Jaxpan:

Did you read this before you posted?


Leave Taz alone.
1189. GatorWX

Congrats!

Quoting 1166. CaicosRetiredSailor:

We have Electricity AND it's NOT raining!!

OK... I am declaring today as D. O. D.
(Those of you who have been through such Tropical systems may guess correctly...)
DRYING OUT DAY

This morning I emptied another .5 inches out of the Rain Gage... SO...
Here is my rain cumulative total: My "official" total rainfall recorded during this storm was...
Cristobal's total rainfall recorded here in Long Bay Hills IS:
SEVENTEEN AND ONE TENTH INCHES!!! (17.1 inches)
WOW, a new experience for me! WOW again!

Providenciales
Turks abd Caicos Islands
Quoting 1183. GatorWX:

Morning. Quite an odd looking storm. Almost looks like some sort of hybrid warm/cold core. I wonder if we'll see the pressure begin to drop without corresponding satellite presentation. I know everyone on here is annoyed by these sorta pathetic systems of recent, but studying them has been intriguing. I'm not entirely sure if it's the gyrating monsoonal waves are the cause, the atmosphere around the systems (dry air and shear) or a combination of the two. I've seen many similarities between them lately. It's only been in our atl basin that I've noticed. It's been interesting after watching season after season with monsters. Something on a big scale seems to have changed. It's been evident since '07-'09 and since.





My guess is dry, sinking air. These storms, with exception of Arthur, can't seem to exist or intensify without attachment to the ITCZ or a trough. I agree, hybrid. I think they are very dangerous, because like Sandy they seem to inflict larger swaths of damage and could be prone to hit areas normally not highly favored for tropical landfall. Like Nor'easters on steroids.

I'm still in fear of the mother of all Nor'easters that could trump even Sandy's wrath. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. 100-200 miles further west and it could have reshaped much of the east coast coastline and brought massive flooding even well inland.
1192. 2ifbyC
Quoting 1177. SunnyDaysFla:



Get down on the floor and play with the dog or cat or grandkid LOL


Ya gonna help me back up?
1193. ricderr
ENSO 3.4 on the rise........another warm pool creeping closer....and the SOI finally in el nino values.....

mother nature is in labor....push lady push.......we're expecting a baby boy.....







Hmm somebody might be pleased
GOM system
3 5 day AOIs



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

1195. hydrus
All everyone is talking about today is that weather we had yesterday and how it "felt" tropical. I sure hope we don't get any more this weekend. We already paid for a camping spot for our RV for Labor Day weekend!
Is that what I think it is?

For all of you saying he needs an eye, he's working on it.