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Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

7000 comments on the sky is falling...
Quoting mikatnight:
No matter where you go, it's always something...

Presidential disaster declarations related to flooding in the United States, shown by county: Green areas represent one declaration; yellow areas represent two declarations; orange areas represent three declarations; red areas represent four or more declarations between June 1, 1965, and June 1, 2003. Map not to scale. Sources: FEMA, Michael Baker Jr., Inc., the National Atlas, and the USGS



Link


What are all the black county's?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Post 7000?



yup your post 7,000


and you this won a 72hr banned



this kinding



OK OK -Gotcha!!!
7006. xcool
Quoting sammywammybamy:





WANTED




Incredible make-up job...I never woulda guessed. Does explain how he's able to circumvent the bans so effortlessly...
7008. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS Day 6:

It also develops a low in the SW Caribbean and brings it up into the Gulf of Honduras on this frame, though it loses the "L" symbol.

If that pans out, there is a weak trough to the north that could bring it into the Gulf of Mexico.
If this thing develops, when do you all think it may become a TD?
this could be the 1st 10,00 blog
"Storms of my Grandchildren"

I'm 32 years old, but I'll probably have grandchildren by the time Dr. M updates his blog...
Hey all! do u think i will be fine to go to orlando on mon and return on fri? I live in south florida and I don't wanna be gone if a storm comes....
Quoting ElConando:


What are all the black county's?


Places to evacuate to?
Quoting CaneWarning:
If this thing develops, when do you all think it may become a TD?



i say in the next 24 too 48 hrs
7016. Levi32
18z catching on to 90L at 168 hours:

ok next mark is 10,000 posts come on people lets pick up the pace
Quoting Levi32:
18z catching on to 90L at 168 hours:




look at all them storms
Quoting CaneWarning:
If this thing develops, when do you all think it may become a TD?


17 minutes... ;)
This is starting to look like a very ugly beginnning of August and we ain't there yet....The SW Caribbean may be start to rotate some too as the ULL to the WEst is helping to vent something there it appears as well....READY! SET! GO!...
Quoting Intimidator3:


17 minutes... ;)


Oh really?
this wait in tell the end of augs
Finally something to watch....
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
This thing will be a Major Hurricane by sunrise.


Major Hurricane Upcaster
Quoting mikatnight:


Places to evacuate to?


Seems like that map was missing data. Dade county had a flood disaster declaration from President Clinton in Oct of 2000.
Quoting Intimidator3:


17 minutes... ;)


minutes caster!
7030. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
18z catching on to 90L at 168 hours:

That 90L will raise some eyebrows in Florida this time next week...jmo
i have a feeling that are 10% on are wave may be geting bump up too 20% too 30% and we may have 91L be for days end

Quoting Tazmanian:
i have a feeling that are 10% on are wave may be geting bump up too 20% too 30% and we may have 91L be for days end

carribean is really getting fired up
Quoting hydrus:
That 90L will raise some eyebrows in Florida this time next week...jmo


Or rip some out, you never know.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
carribean is really getting fired up


yup


well you guys want some in too track well here you go
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
This thing will be a Major Hurricane by sunrise.


Hey, hey, that's a little far fetched don't ya think? But a TD by Tomorrow is still a very good possibility. Hey, you never know.
HWRF is beginning to come out for 90L.

I wonder if it will be back to its old trick of doing a Typhoon Tip-style megabomb on any system in decent conditions, or if it will continue with what it has been doing lately and either staying waaaay weak or not deviating from the reasonable range of intensity. There hasn't really been a system like 90L yet this year. 92L in June was, of course, a CATL wave, but the conditions weren't good.
7037. Dakster
If PRO is the opposite of CON, does that make congress the opposite of progress?

Are we still trying to forecast the location of a storm's landfall around August 10th?
Quoting Drakoen:
Another thing I need to comment on is how terrible the new GFS is. It may do well with tracking cyclones when they actually form, but the new GFS has numerous problems from not handling winds properly to having dry air biased. The new GFS will probably have an affect on the hurricane models since the hurricane models use the GFS boundary layer scheme.


are they going to "fix" it or do something about it? or is it a done deal?
Quoting ElConando:


Or rip some out, you never know.


RIP 90L?
7041. hydrus
Quoting Seflhurricane:
carribean is really getting fired up
And the water temperatures are in the mid and upper 80,s. Lotsa energy out there for cyclones.
7042. Levi32
Day 13:

omg we hit 7000 posts wow very good chance of 10000 is increasing
7044. pottery
All day long I wondered why the sky was so dark and sort of yellow.
Now I see that the NHC has put a yellow blob right overhead!
It has caused heavy rain, thunder and lightening, and mud.
What have I done to reserve this ?
7045. scott39
Man, I leave here for a couple of days and look what somebody started. The tropics are pissed at the ones who said this season would be "slow" or a "bust"!LOL
Quoting Levi32:
Day 13:



Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?
I'd like to install a quality weather station w/computer interface hopefully for under $500.00. Would love some input. Davis? Oregon Scientific? Don't want something that's gonna die @ 90kts.
7049. Drakoen
Quoting truecajun:


are they going to "fix" it or do something about it? or is it a done deal?


According to the HPC we can expect the errors in the GFS to continue to occur. No word to my knowledge of any fixing but I suppose they would be trying to work on it.
Quoting Levi32:
Day 13:




look at all them name storms out there on the GFS


we may be back too A by SEP
invest 90L BE ANYWERE IN 190 HOURS FROM NOW ITS TO FAR OUT TO KNOW WHERE THE STORM GOING TO HIT LAND..ITS MOVING VERY SLOW..
Good Evening All!

Nice little 38,000 ft. thunder boomer happening here. Need the rain to cool down, the thermometer hit 99.9 yesterday. I see we have a new invest to watch.
7053. xcool
HAHA GFS YEA OK
7054. xcool


7055. Dakster
Quoting Congress:


Careful there, my b-day is the following day.


Happy early birthday, I hope you didn't want a major hurricane on your birthday for a present.
Quoting btwntx08:
omg we hit 7000 posts wow very good chance of 10000 is increasing



yup
7057. KYDan
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
invest 90L BE ANYWERE IN 190 HOURS FROM NOW ITS TO FAR OUT TO KNOW WHERE THE STORM GOING TO HIT LAND..ITS MOVING VERY SLOW..


Didn't you just say that Invest 90L wasn't going to be designated today?
epic blog.
Quoting Levi32:
Day 13:


omg is it finally showing a ga landfall lol
Quoting scott39:
Man, I leave here for a couple of days and look what somebody started. The tropics are pissed at the ones who said this season would be "slow" or a "bust"!LOL


This season will be no bust and that's a fact. It'll be bust for the people still recovering from say Ivan or Katrina because they will be in for some more-than-nasty weather at the least.
Quoting Dakster:
If PRO is the opposite of CON, does that make congress the opposite of progress?

Are we still trying to forecast the location of a storm's landfall around August 10th?


Wow...so we're just throwing darts into a map?
Quoting Snowlover123:


Didn't you just say that Invest 90L wasn't going to be designated today?



lol they 1st start downcaster then we they see 90L they start wishcasting lol
7067. xcool
Congress jfv Mind ya Buizness
Orange circle for 90L at 8 pm , 20% for the AOI by the windwards at 8pm, another yellow circle in the western caribbean near 14/77 at 8pm?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?


I think it's a possibility that a Georgia landfall could occur. It could also go into the GOMEX, go up the East Coast, or stay south. Many uncertainties right now, but this is consistent with the last run. Interesting...
7070. Patrap
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Womp,,wahhhh


Better luck next time.

7071. Levi32
Notice the GFS showing a fragile ridging pattern building back into the eastern US in the long-range as the MJO creeps back towards the Atlantic, and that is something that could prevent this from recurving, but the future track of this system remains largely unknown past 60W.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Orange circle for 90L at 8 pm , 20% for the AOI by the windwards at 8pm, another yellow circle in the western caribbean near 14/77 at 8pm?




yup may be
7073. hydrus
Quoting Congress:
sORRY, sCOTTY, 90 will never enter the gom, OK? :(. iTS AN ecOAST tHREATER AND THAT'S FINAL.
Maybe east coast of Florida.
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol they 1st start downcaster then we they see 90L they start wishcasting lol


Correct!
Quoting Patrap:
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Womp,,wahhhh


Better luck next time.



LOL...someone was reporting your demise?
7076. Levi32
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.

7077. Drakoen
GFS and ECMWF look like polar opposites regarding the 500mb patter the GFS features a trough creating a substantial enough weakness while the ECMWF has a big ol' ridge. The GEFS ensemble forecast of a positive NAO would tend to favor a trough but it's hard to combat the ECMWF and its forecast of increasing heights over the Great Lakes region.
7079. xcool


jfv
7081. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?


I think it is showing us something that could happen and I don't feel that it is wildly off. The pattern will favor ridging building back into the eastern US but we cannot know for sure this far out whether the trough will be able to recurve a hurricane sitting down there. It's simply too far out to know.
7082. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.

How strong of a TC is that showing?
Quoting Levi32:
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.




some one said salt wait i get the popcorn out so you can put some on it
7084. xcool
Congress stop put last name on here you dam fool
7085. FLdewey
The prodigal Janiel returns...
Quoting Levi32:
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.



A little further north than the last run. We'll have to see if this continues, and becomes an East Coast storm, or will completely change in the 0Z run, as that is when the fresh data gets sent to the models.
7087. Relix
Meh. I am sure the Puerto Rico barrier will stop the system from getting here. =P
Quoting Snowlover123:


Didn't you just say that Invest 90L wasn't going to be designated today?
I DID SAY THAT..i was thinking this morning invest 90L WILL BE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
7089. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS and ECMWF look like polar opposites regarding the 500mb patter the GFS features a trough creating a substantial enough weakness while the ECMWF has a big ol' ridge. The GEFS ensemble forecast of a positive NAO would tend to favor a trough but it's hard to combat the ECMWF and its forecast of increasing heights over the Great Lakes region.


ECMWF will probably beat the GFS as it usually does, but the ECMWF does have a trough that could have a chance at recurving the system, but both models show the ridge winning and taking it west ultimately.
7090. pottery
Pat, how was it "over there"?
Welcome back!
7091. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
How strong of a TC is that showing?


A mature hurricane, but it matters little what intensity it is showing. Just the fact that it is a mature tropical cyclone.
7092. unf97
Quoting stormpetrol:
Orange circle for 90L at 8 pm , 20% for the AOI by the windwards at 8pm, another yellow circle in the western caribbean near 14/77 at 8pm?


Yes, I definitely think NHC should put a yellow circle on the disturbance in the western Caribbean too. That AOI looks rather vigorous early this evening.
7093. IKE
Dram time on the blog...by the same bloggers.
7094. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
All day long I wondered why the sky was so dark and sort of yellow.
Now I see that the NHC has put a yellow blob right overhead!
It has caused heavy rain, thunder and lightening, and mud.
What have I done to reserve this ?
I was saying to myself, Pottery is going to get some rain on the omnipotent Calabash Tree....Good Evening Pott....:)
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
I DID SAY THAT..i was thinking this morning invest 90L WILL BE ON FRIDAY MORNING.


It is 12 hours earlier. What was your thinking, intensification wise, for this system? As it would probably now happen 12 hours earlier.
Is there any chance of another Floyd or Isabel?
Quoting Congress:
Storm, how far into the bahamas?


It doesn't necessarily have to go into the Bahamas. It could go north or south, as seen with different models. We don't know quite yet. ;)
7100. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
I was saying to myself, Pottery is going to get some rain on the omnipotent Calabash Tree....Good Evening Pott....:)

Thanks. But can you turn it off now?
LOL
7101. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


ECMWF will probably beat the GFS as it usually does, but the ECMWF does have a trough that could have a chance at recurving the system, but both models show the ridge winning and taking it west ultimately.


Trough looks flatter and faster on the ECMWF and by the time the heights decrease enough the system is already under the 500mb CONUS ridge.
7102. Levi32
The TUTT is in a great position to ventilate 90L should it end up off the SE US coast.

7103. xcool
Congress so Your Point
Quoting Congress:
Storm, how far into the bahamas?

Too low in Lat / I think most storms/hurricanes this year will be Caribbean Cruisers.
7106. Patrap
Quoting pottery:
Pat, how was it "over there"?
Welcome back!





I wasnt banned.
Thats just wishful thinking for some,LOL


I made post earlier today for the wunderbroadcast Network.

Been Busy doing stuff for the portlight Project,

Disaster Relief Trailer

Posted by: Portlight, 12:29 PM CDT on July 29, 2010


When one faces these kinda Moments..


4. Patrap 1:26 PM CDT on July 29, 2010
calm down congress lol gots lot of time to watch it
Quoting Drakoen:


Trough looks flatter and faster on the ECMWF and by the time the heights decrease enough the system is already under the 500mb CONUS ridge.
Which means no curve, right?
7109. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...someone was reporting your demise?
Him and that NttyGrtty dude have been having it out for months it seems. I wonder what the deal is...
7110. xcool
bye jfv drama queen back to tropical weather
Quoting Patrap:
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Womp,,wahhhh


Better luck next time.



I am so glad to see ya, some folks said they thought u was banned. Of course I didn't believe them. something over JFlorida and another blogger, JFlorida pushed some of the crap to far in my opinion. Just glad ur back.

So what do ya think about the wave out there? I think it's kinda of descent but i am no weather person.

Hey Floodman, how r ya? :)
Sheri
I'd like to install a quality weather station w/computer interface hopefully for under $500.00. Would love some input. Davis? Oregon Scientific? Don't want something that's gonna die @ 90kts. No reply. I'll try one more time. Also plan to link a webcam as needed.
7113. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Trough looks flatter and faster on the ECMWF and by the time the heights decrease enough the system is already under the 500mb CONUS ridge.


Yes. I say a chance because this far out the timing of when the trough and invest 90L arrive in the area may change. So far, I have seen nothing wanting to recurve this well east of the US.
7115. pottery
Quoting Patrap:



I wasnt banned.
Thats just wishful thinking for some,LOL


I made post earlier today for the wunderbroadcast Network.

Been Busy doing stuff for the portlight Project,

Disaster Relief Trailer

Posted by: Portlight, 12:29 PM CDT on July 29, 2010

LOL I knew you were not banned.
I was joking.....

Been coming down here all day, sometimes heavy.
Pressure bottomed out at 1010 two hours ago.
No breeze, but lots of electricity from 1 pm to about 4 pm.
7116. hydrus
Quoting stormpetrol:

Too low in Lat / I think most storms/hurricanes this year will be Caribbean Cruisers.
Great. and all that hot water to power them up... If that does happen, we may see another cat-5 landfall. Naturally I pray that does not happen.
less then 1hrs be for the new two comes out cant wait
7118. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

LOL I knew you were not banned.
I was joking.....

Been coming down here all day, sometimes heavy.
Pressure bottomed out at 1010 two hours ago.
No breeze, but lots of electricity from 1 pm to about 4 pm.



Life in da tropics
7119. Drakoen
Quoting muddertracker:
Which means no curve, right?


Right
Interesting how the alphabetical blog listing has been shifted to under 'member handle'
7121. pottery
BBL..
7122. Patrap
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I am so glad to see ya, some folks said they thought u was banned. Of course I didn't believe them. something over JFlorida and another blogger, JFlorida pushed some of the crap to far in my opinion. Just glad ur back.

So what do ya think about the wave out there? I think it's kinda of descent but i am no weather person.

Hey Floodman, how r ya? :)
Sheri


Havent checked out 90L

So dunno is my easy synopsis
Quoting muddertracker:
Which means no curve, right?
Yep.
7124. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Yes. I say a chance because this far out the timing of when the trough and invest 90L arrive in the area may change. So far, I have seen nothing wanting to recurve this well east of the US.
So you see 60W as being the time period when the forecast track will be clearer? If so, When do you anticipate 90L to be at 60W?
Quoting Levi32:
The TUTT is in a great position to ventilate 90L should it end up off the SE US coast.

THAT IS BIG HIGH IN SOUTHEAST
Quoting gator23:

if you are going to put up fake pictures you think you could have piked a better looking girl.


LOLLOLLOL!!!!
7128. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
So you see 60W as being the time period when the forecast track will be clearer? If so, When do you anticipate 90L to be at 60W?


Well the track will naturally be much clearer by the time it reaches 60W. Right now the track beyond 60W is largely unknown. It should arrive there, near the northern Antilles, in 5-7 days.
7129. xcool
gator23:
lmao
Quoting muddertracker:
Which means no curve, right?


Reminds me of the highway between Dallas and Fort Worth. No curves.
invest 90L WILL NOT BE A FISH STORM. I DO NOT SEE IT HAPPERN AT ALL. MIDDLE NEXT WEEK ALL I SEE IS BIG HIGHS TO THE NORTH ITS WILL KEEEP THIS STOM MOVING WEST NORTH WEST RIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST COAST
Wow just checking in to see if I was right yesterday and I see we have 90L....
Now maybe this "Blog" will get back to "Weather" and not so much GW stuff....

Taco :o)
Quoting Drakoen:
Another thing I need to comment on is how terrible the new GFS is. It may do well with tracking cyclones when they actually form, but the new GFS has numerous problems from not handling winds properly to having dry air biased. The new GFS will probably have an affect on the hurricane models since the hurricane models use the GFS boundary layer scheme.


Before you try, convict and execute the new GFS, you may want to look at some data
7134. FLdewey
Dumps like a truck...
7135. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Well the track will naturally be much clearer by the time it reaches 60W. Right now the track beyond 60W is largely unknown. It should arrive there, near the northern Antilles, in 5-7 days.
thanks
not sure if its been posted,global warming undeniable report
Nice mid to low-level spin associated with 90L.

Floater
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I'd like to install a quality weather station w/computer interface hopefully for under $500.00. Would love some input. Davis? Oregon Scientific? Don't want something that's gonna die @ 90kts. No reply. I'll try one more time. Also plan to link a webcam as needed.


Liked my Tycon PWS so far. It's no Davis but much cheaper. Been running it through a Weatherplug so it's online 24/7 for 5watts a day.
Quoting stillwaiting:
not sure if its been posted,global warming undeniable report



90L plzs where not talking about GW today
7143. gator23
Quoting DestinJeff:


Basil Marceaux (.com) in your Wunderbox.


priceless
90L models thus far:

7146. Drakoen
General consensus on the models taking 90L towards the northern Lesser Antilles

Nrt, I will look at that.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Reminds me of the highway between Dallas and Fort Worth. No curves.

You mean I-30?
7148. gator23
Quoting Congress:


I know, Rob, my bad.

how do you know his name?
7149. Levi32
One should keep in mind that 90L isn't even guaranteed to develop. It may remain weak for many days yet before getting into an area where it can ramp up, and whether it can will depend on how it holds together over the next few days. You likely won't see this rapidly strengthening during the next few days.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I am so glad to see ya, some folks said they thought u was banned. Of course I didn't believe them. something over JFlorida and another blogger, JFlorida pushed some of the crap to far in my opinion. Just glad ur back.

So what do ya think about the wave out there? I think it's kinda of descent but i am no weather person.

Hey Floodman, how r ya? :)
Sheri


I didn't see JFLORIDA push anything too far. I saw a lot of others who did.
7151. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


Basil Marceaux (.com) in your Wunderbox.



I'd vote for the guy... Looks like he has it more together than Rick Scott. :-o
7153. Dakster
Quoting Skyepony:


Liked my Tycon PWS so far. Been running it through a Weatherplug so it's online 24/7 for 5watts a day.


Weatherplug?
Hi Taz what is the link to the models you look at? I'd like to bookmark them .
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Reminds me of the highway between Dallas and Fort Worth. No curves.
Exactly! lol..btw, is Dallas county still dry?
Quoting gator23:

how do you know his name?


Thats JFV
Thank you Storm! From what I've researched, it sounds as if the Davis is the way to go. I really do appreciate your advice.
12Z ECMWF

240Hr


12Z GFS

240Hr
7159. hydrus
Quoting stillwaiting:
not sure if its been posted,global warming undeniable report
I thought they already proved, that it is an established fact the the Earth is warming. The real issue was how much of the global warming is being caused by mankind?
Quoting galvestongal:
Hi Taz what is the link to the models you look at? I'd like to bookmark them .


here

Link



Quoting hydrus:
I thought they already proved, that it is an established fact the the Earth is warming. The real issue was how much of the global warming is being caused by mankind?



Trop weather olny Plzs
Quoting muddertracker:
Exactly! lol..btw, is Dallas county still dry?


I live in Tarrant County...The county to the west of Dallas County. Yes, its still dry, b ut some places have been getting heavy rain lately. Pattern change is taking place though, and we'll hit the 100-105 degree range this weekend and next week, with head indicies in the 105-110 degree range.
Quoting StormW:

Davis would be the one to go with, however they are pricey. Go here, or on Ebay

PROVANTAGE


Davis Vantage Weather Pro 2 here... I love it.. I connected it to the site and have owned it for over 4 years...
Quoting Tazmanian:



90L plzs where not talking about GW today


Says who?
Thanks Sky! I'll look at that also. Wish I could have it up and runnin' now, but it'll probably be a stockin' stuffer if I'm lucky the way this year's goin'
Quoting BenBIogger:
ECMWF

240Hr
Me and CybrTeddy have noted that the 00z ECMWF is more aggressive on the development of 90L while the 12z ECMWF is weaker. Watch the 00z run tonight trend stronger.
Troughs, Ridges, Timing, Strength, ULL's

Fun Fun. Looks like a tricky forecast shaping up down the line should 90L decide to pull the trigger.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Says who?

says us
i think we will have a name storm evere other day in AUG
I don't normally get into the who said what on the blog - but several people have made the comment that Pat makes derogatory comments about Florida and/or the Florida bloggers. To my knowledge, I have never seen Pat make such blanket comments. He also goes out of his way to post information that is relevant for many areas, not just his. Hate to see people blamed for something that aren't guilty of.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Says who?


Says the people of the blog!
Satellite imagery shows that 90L has a pretty well-defined MLC near 7.5N and 31.2W.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live in Tarrant County...The county to the west of Dallas County. Yes, its still dry, b ut some places have been getting heavy rain lately. Pattern change is taking place though, and we'll hit the 100-105 degree range this weekend and next week, with head indicies in the 105-110 degree range.
I can relate to that..I live northwest of Austin, and it's been wet here, too. We are plus 4 inches on the year for rain...but we are expected to break 100 degress on Sunday for the first time this summer. Last summer we had 40 days of 100+ degree temp. Brutal.
7177. hahaguy
Quoting zoomiami:
I don't normally get into the who said what on the blog - but several people have made the comment that Pat makes derogatory comments about Florida and/or the Florida bloggers. To my knowledge, I have never seen Pat make such blanket comments. He also goes out of his way to post information that is relevant for many areas, not just his. Hate to see people blamed for something that aren't guilty of.


Well said zoo.
7178. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:



Trop weather olny Plzs
Forgive me Taz. I posting here for three years and maybe twice I posted on the subject of global warming. I wont do it again.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Troughs, Ridges, Timing, Strength, ULL's

Fun Fun. Looks like a tricky forecast shaping up down the line should 90L decide to pull the trigger.


No such thing as an ordinary track, the good old days are gone! lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thats JFV
where what is his user name to ignore him QUICK
Thank you Taz!
Quoting stillwaiting:
not sure if its been posted,global warming undeniable report


I did see it, and posted on it. Got a few interesting responses, but folks don't seem to want to talk about ther actual blog topic, I guess. (And please don't pay any attention to those telling you not to talk about GW anymore; it's the Doc's blog, and the Doc brought it up, so it's fair game. They can always skip the commenst they find uninteresting, as I myself do.)
Hi Haha -- long time no see.

Are you getting ready for the storms to start popping?
Good Evening

Blog Update

Tropical Invest 90L
HWRF



Quoting btwntx08:

says us


By "us", I assume you're no longer including the owner/author of the very blog in which you're posting? Yeah, good luck with that; let me know how it works for you... :-)
Quoting zoomiami:


No such thing as an ordinary track, the good old days are gone! lol
Quoting zoomiami:


No such thing as an ordinary track, the good old days are gone! lol


No they aren't! Remember Bonnie was in a straight forward steering environment :-b

7190. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Good Evening

Blog Update

Tropical Invest 90L


Evening 456.
90L remains weak=southern antellies,a bit stronger=northern antellies......imo towards southern hispanola coast area...
SOMETHING NEW ON THE EAST COAST.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Evening

Blog Update

Tropical Invest 90L
thanks 456
7194. hahaguy
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Haha -- long time no see.

Are you getting ready for the storms to start popping?


Hey zoo, I had to take a break from here to regain some of my sanity lol. Yep I'm all ready for the storms to start popping. How about you?
The Davis looks doable. Maybe if I install it now Murphys law will bring on a strong 34kt peak wind for the year.
Good Evening

Blog Update

Tropical Invest 90L
7197. Levi32
HWRF looks a bit too far north to me, as usual.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Says the people of the blog!


I think you're wrong; please see my comment #7187.
Quoting Dakster:


Weatherplug?


Here's a picture..it's a little computer just for the PWS. Uploads in rapid fire 24/7 on it's own, restarts itself after a power outage. Every few months I dump the data saved on the PWS base to my computer to save it, then plug it back into the Weatherplug. I think they are available to the public now.
7200. ssmate
Quoting Neapolitan:


I did see it, and posted on it. Got a few interesting responses, but folks don't seem to want to talk about ther actual blog topic, I guess. (And please don't pay any attention to those telling you not to talk about GW anymore; it's the Doc's blog, and the Doc brought it up, so it's fair game. They can always skip the commenst they find uninteresting, as I myself do.)
The topic was posted three days ago when nothing was going on. Now there's something going on.
7202. java162
Quoting Weather456:
Good Evening

Blog Update

Tropical Invest 90L


thought you were dead....
The models are going to be all over the place until this pulls out of the ITCZ and closes a center, then they still will, lol.
Quoting Ivanhater:
HWRF




wow a cat 2 i believe
at this rate this blog is going we may hit 10,000 buy no later then later tonight or firday
7207. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live in Tarrant County...The county to the west of Dallas County. Yes, its still dry, b ut some places have been getting heavy rain lately. Pattern change is taking place though, and we'll hit the 100-105 degree range this weekend and next week, with head indicies in the 105-110 degree range.


Heading up to north of Denton for a couple of birthday parties this weekend. Not looking forward to the heat there. :P Of course, we are supposed to get really hot down here over the next few days as well.
Quoting zoomiami:
I don't normally get into the who said what on the blog - but several people have made the comment that Pat makes derogatory comments about Florida and/or the Florida bloggers. To my knowledge, I have never seen Pat make such blanket comments. He also goes out of his way to post information that is relevant for many areas, not just his. Hate to see people blamed for something that aren't guilty of.


Zoo, I totally agree with you. He really tries to help everyone he can.
Sheri
I DO NOT LIKE THIS AT ALL.
all most time for the two
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


OMG... what does the GFDL show?
the hwrf is also developing it significantly.
Never heard of weatherplug. Is it like weatherbug?
Thanks all for the PWS info. Natures callin' (hunger) Will bbl.
plzs go too the nhc and re move the yellow markings from them
Quoting Levi32:
HWRF looks a bit too far north to me, as usual.
Agreed.
Just a correction to the blog

cloud tops have warmed
Quoting Tazmanian:
all most time for the two


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%
Quoting Snowlover123:


OMG... what does the GFDL show?
HWRF comes out first followed by the GFDL...in other words the GFDL has yet to come out.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Agreed.

yep a tad to much poleward lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF comes out first followed by the GFDL...in other words the GFDL has yet to come out.


Thanks. :)
Quoting ssmate:
The topic was posted three days ago when nothing was going on. Now there's something going on.


And yet Dr. Masters hasn't yet posted another blog. Hmmm...

(On top of which, GW will be "going on" l-o-n-g after every tropical cyclone this year has faded into so many cirrus clouds.)
They have a new unit out the Vantage Vue, it's a bit cheaper, and it' all one piece, kinda nice..

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Thank you Storm! From what I've researched, it sounds as if the Davis is the way to go. I really do appreciate your advice.
Quoting Weather456:
Just a correction to the blog

cloud tops have warmed


It looks very good, considering it's in its D-MIN phase right now.
Well I hate to say this but "This Blog" is about GW and "Not Tropics"... It has everything to do with Climate Change.
So if someone on here wants to talk about "GW"
then I gess they have that right.... Thats also why I have not been
on here lately because I hate any thing to do with "GW".
I believe it is a cycle that we are in.... But again thats just me....
This Blog starts out with this,"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity"
so if you want to talk about it go ahead, I will come back when the Blog goes back to "Tropics"...

Taco :o)
Quoting Snowlover123:


OMG... what does the GFDL show?


000
WHXX01 KWBC 291859
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC THU JUL 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100729 1800 100730 0600 100730 1800 100731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 30.0W 8.5N 31.1W 8.6N 32.4W 8.9N 33.7W
BAMD 8.5N 30.0W 8.4N 31.3W 8.7N 32.6W 9.2N 33.8W
BAMM 8.5N 30.0W 8.5N 31.2W 8.8N 32.4W 9.3N 33.7W
LBAR 8.5N 30.0W 8.2N 32.5W 8.5N 35.5W 9.1N 38.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100731 1800 100801 1800 100802 1800 100803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 35.0W 9.6N 38.4W 11.0N 43.8W 13.9N 51.1W
BAMD 9.9N 35.5W 11.1N 39.6W 12.6N 44.9W 15.1N 50.7W
BAMM 9.8N 35.3W 10.3N 39.3W 11.1N 44.8W 13.2N 51.3W
LBAR 10.1N 41.9W 11.6N 48.4W 12.1N 54.0W 14.4N 57.0W
SHIP 54KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS
DSHP 54KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 27.0W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 23.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%


Caribbean Wave: 10-20%
90L:20-30%
Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%



E on both storms
Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%
Quoting Tazmanian:



E on both storms


lol, you're funny. :)
Quoting Snowlover123:


lol, you're funny. :)



thank you
Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%


TBH I don't think they'll change it this TWO.

So I guess A and A for me.
So the entire sentence should read:

Cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours which is an indication of diurnal minimum and that the system is becoming independent of the ITCZ.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%


Caribbean Wave: 10% or 20%

90L: IMO 30%, probably 20% though
7237. angiest
7227 - Looks like they may need to increase the likelihood of development in the next 48 hours by quite a bit, based on what SHIPS says...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The way that the hurricane is tilted looks like Hurricane Bill.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bill.A2009231.1415.250m.jpg
81 knots is bout 94 mph, let's hope the ships is being generous with 90l.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Poll:

Next TWO:

Caribbean Wave:
A)0-10%
B)10-20%
C)20-30%
D)30-40%
E)Greater than 40%

90L
A)10-20%
B)20-30%
C)30-40%
D)40-50%
E)Greater than 50%
Probably no development of either feature in the next 48 hours since 90L has to detach itself from the ITCZ completely and PGI20L needs to get to the more favorable western Caribbean. IMO, I would leave both numbers the same (90L at 20% and PGI20L at 10%).
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


No they aren't! Remember Bonnie was in a straight forward steering environment :-b



Yes, you are right about that. I was commenting on the development of Bonnie, and the track. People wonder why those of us in Florida get skittish when it looks like something might pop. Bonnie went from nothing to a named storm, to ashore in about 28 hours. Fortunately it did not intensify, but its even chances that something coming across the gulf stream could. There was no time to prepare, and if it had been a cat 1 it would not have been a nice day.

In the blog during Bonnie someone posted several storms in the last 10 years that have done the same thing. Even with all of our new technology you still have to pay attention.
Quoting Congress:
poleward bias, levi. remember they bonnie near soutehrn GA for pete's sakes.



You are officially the first Georgiacaster. Ever.
7244. WxLogic
Good evening...

My goodness this AM the 2 areas that were being discussed now have probabilities and one is already an invest 90L which GFS develops briefly.
Quoting muddertracker:
81 knots is bout 94 mph, let's hope the ships is being generous with 90l.

It's in a very favorable environment, so I would question if it's underestimating
bill was ia through, colin will a ridges year, meaning forget about it, colin will not go out to sea.
Quoting zoomiami:



I don't normally get into the who said what on the blog - but several people have made the comment that Pat makes derogatory comments about Florida and/or the Florida bloggers. To my knowledge, I have never seen Pat make such blanket comments. He also goes out of his way to post information that is relevant for many areas, not just his. Hate to see people blamed for something that aren't guilty of.
I agree. I think what some people may be reacting to is the somewhat overly Florida-centric posts of some of the bloggers on here. While it is recognized that Florida has a very strong presence here on Dr. M's blog, there is also another dozen or so states and many countries that are at risk from north Atlantic tropical cyclones.

As for Pat... There are not that many bloggers that are as even-handed and level-headed as him. It doesn't matter if a TC is going to impact Florida, Mexico, Louisiana, or the Outer Banks... he is going to post the info he has for it.
The SHIPS intensity model has been over-doing intensity big time this season. It kept wanting to make Bonnie a 60mph TS in the Gulf when it dissipated into an open wave. I wouldn't take the SHIPS' word until we have a developed system when it will perform better.
7249. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Before you try, convict and execute the new GFS, you may want to look at some data


Okay the new GFS has made nice improvements in skill level, but its handling of the deep tropics is poor; I guess I should have been more specific in my post in it being terrible with the tropics which is my main focus. Looking at the power point the new GFS has problems with the QBO and has had an increase in the negative bias winds in the tropics. The new GFS is also weaker with the African easterly Jet compared to the previous GFS and according to international desk they think the new GFS and ECMWF are too weak with the strength of tropical waves.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


HWRF makes it a Major Hurricane!? :o
Haha -- doing good -- trying to get back in the routine of watching the storms, invest, etc.
HWRF going too northward...strength is possible but a bit overdone.

120 hours.




I've never seen Pat make an unfair derogatory comment about Florida. And I've seen a lot in the blogs.
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined realistically as climate is them all combined plus any weather phenomena occurring in the warming, now modeled, climate.

I dont see why things cannot be discussed concurrently as a good 70-80 percent of the blog is small talk and repetition with no bearing on anything whatsoever.

Please leave and dont return if it is too much for you to allow others to voice their concerns reasonably in a forum.
DrM, would you please change the blog back to the tropics? So we can put a stop to this GW bull hockey, not everyone believes in it and some like i just think it's a cycle we are going thru.
We have a wave out there that is very interesting and would like to hear what you have to say about it.
Thank You,
Sheri
Quoting angiest:
7227 - Looks like they may need to increase the likelihood of development in the next 48 hours by quite a bit, based on what SHIPS says...

Based on SHIPS? Are you serious...that model is junk. Wait 24 hours for the models to get their act together on this system.
90L is starting to pull away from the ITCZ, expect major convection loss as it does so, then it will start sustaining itself.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined realistically as climate is them all combined plus any weather phenomena occurring in the warming, now modeled, climate.

I dont see why things cannot be discussed concurrently as a good 70-80 percent of the blog is small talk and repetition with no bearing on anything whatsoever.

Please leave and dont return if it is too much for you to allow others to voice their concerns reasonably in a forum.


Hi GW man!
Quoting Congress:
rob im sorry for all the insults, plz can you forgive me? :(

yea
Quoting muddertracker:
81 knots is bout 94 mph, let's hope the ships is being generous with 90l.

Its also 900mb (5000-8000 ft or so)winds, which is going to be a good 15-20% stronger than surface level.
Quoting MississippiWx:
The SHIPS intensity model has been over-doing intensity big time this season. It kept wanting to make Bonnie a 60mph TS in the Gulf when it dissipated into an open wave. I wouldn't take the SHIPS' word until we have a developed system when it will perform better.


SHIPS always overstate intensity.

SHIPS should be used to get a general idea of the environment ahead of a system rather than for initial intensity.
For those out there who mess with Patrap...remember..."Hooper drives the boat"...and YOU ain't Hooper.
INV/90/L
MARK
7.9N/31.3W
90L is still way to far south for development in the next 24-48 hours. it will move out of the ITCZ but got to give it time. Going to be a fun one to watch but we are still a few days away.
7265. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:


Okay the new GFS has made nice improvements in skill level, but its handling of the deep tropics is poor; I guess I should have been more specific in my post in it being terrible with the tropics which is my main focus. Looking at the power point the new GFS has problems with the QBO and has had an increase in the negative bias winds in the tropics. The new GFS is also weaker with the African easterly Jet compared to the previous GFS and according to international desk they think the new GFS and ECMWF are too weak with the strength of tropical waves.
Quoting btwntx08:

yea


You know who that is right?
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Based on SHIPS? Are you serious...that model is junk. Wait 24 hours for the models to get their act together on this system.
Model is junk? The model isn't "junk" it just tends to overdo intensity, it is a pretty good model for forecasting the conditions that are forecasted to be around at system at a given time.
7268. Bonz
Good evening from S. Florida. I take one day off from the blog and an invest forms?
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
DrM, would you please change the blog back to the tropics? So we can put a stop to this GW bull hockey, not everyone believes in it and some like i just think it's a cycle we are going thru.
We have a wave out there that is very interesting and would like to hear what you have to say about it.
Thank You,
Sheri


OMG reporte... I mean seconded. ;) Well said.
7270. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF going too northward...strength is possible but a bit overdone.

120 hours.






HWRF is mostly trash. It has a poleward bias in track and it's always overdone on the intensity, yet is often underdone in the wind/pressure relationship.
Quoting Weather456:


SHIPS always overstate intensity.

SHIPS should be used to get a general idea of the environment ahead of a system rather than for initial intensity.


Yeah, I don't doubt the system has a chance of becoming a strong hurricane. I just don't believe it will happen as quickly as the SHIPS and even the HWRF are forecasting. If this were totally independent of the ITCZ, then I might be more inclined to believe them.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
DrM, would you please change the blog back to the tropics? So we can put a stop to this GW bull hockey, not everyone believes in it and some like i just think it's a cycle we are going thru.
We have a wave out there that is very interesting and would like to hear what you have to say about it.
Thank You,
Sheri

Hey Sheri I believe Dr Masters is off for the week and thats why we have not had a change in the Blog....

Taco :o)
By the way I "Totally Agree" with you 100%
7273. FLdewey
I don't think it had anything to do with Florida... I think the stalker has some deeper issues to work out. :-s
Quoting CybrTeddy:
90L is starting to pull away from the ITCZ, expect major convection loss as it does so, then it will start sustaining itself.


I agree. And once it completely does pull out, we should expect development to take place.
imo 90L at 8 20%, Antilles Disturbance 10%.


120 HR NEAR 19N 51W NEAR CAT 3
Quoting Levi32:


HWRF is mostly trash. It has a poleward bias in track and it's always overdone on the intensity, yet is often underdone in the wind/pressure relationship.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Model is junk? The model isn't "junk" it just tends to overdo intensity, it is a pretty good model for forecasting the conditions that are forecasted to be around at system at a given time.

7279. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Model is junk? The model isn't "junk" it just tends to overdo intensity, it is a pretty good model for forecasting the conditions that are forecasted to be around at system at a given time.


And I think I mentioned it in the context of the probability for development, not the initiation of advisories.

If it were junk, I doubt NHC would mention it in storm discussions.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


120 HR NEAR 19N 51W NEAR CAT 3


109 kts. is above a cat 3. 100 kts. is a cat 3.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined ....

You said it, now you Prove it.
Quoting Levi32:


HWRF is mostly trash. It has a poleward bias in track and it's always overdone on the intensity, yet is often underdone in the wind/pressure relationship.
Agreed.
Quoting Levi32:


HWRF is mostly trash. It has a poleward bias in track and it's always overdone on the intensity, yet is often underdone in the wind/pressure relationship.

It seems to handle epac storms better, tho. (I think that was the HWRF, at least)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Model is junk? The model isn't "junk" it just tends to overdo intensity, it is a pretty good model for forecasting the conditions that are forecasted to be around at system at a given time.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaa keep telling yourself that. I trust that model about as far as I can kick a mule across a field. It is total junk in my eyes. Give me a satellite loop and I can tell you what the environment is around the system without the SHIPS model input.
Quoting Snowlover123:


109 kts. is above a cat 3. 100 kts. is a cat 3.
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
imo 90L at 8 20%, Antilles Disturbance 10%.


Agreed. I don't expect to see any change in the percentage for 90L since it has lost a lot of convection. If it is increased to 30%, it's simply because it was classified an invest and has a 1010mb low associated with it.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined realistically as climate is them all combined plus any weather phenomena occurring in the warming, now modeled, climate.

I dont see why things cannot be discussed concurrently as a good 70-80 percent of the blog is small talk and repetition with no bearing on anything whatsoever.

Please leave and dont return if it is too much for you to allow others to voice their concerns reasonably in a forum.


Very well put; I couldn't agree with you more.

I've been watching this blog for years, but only got around to joining last year, as my job kept me from participating. I try to join in now when I can, but I have to say it's highly annoying to wade through literally hundreds of posts stating "Hey, how ya' doin?" or "Is there any chance 92L will hit central Florida as a Cat 5?" or "JFV, we know it's you. POOF!", only to be told by the same people making those statements to stop commenting on the very topic of the blog entry. But you know what I do when I'm annoyed by a certain post? I skip pver it. To those so deeply bothered by talk of GW, I'd politely suggest you do the same.
90L in my opinion will become a significant storm but will track more westward.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.


Ohhhh okay. 900 mb isn't that far above the surface though.
7290. Levi32
Quoting jeffs713:

It seems to handle epac storms better, tho. (I think that was the HWRF, at least)


Most models do. East Pacific systems are very simple compared to what we have to deal with in the Atlantic.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.
Quoting Drakoen:


Okay the new GFS has made nice improvements in skill level, but its handling of the deep tropics is poor; I guess I should have been more specific in my post in it being terrible with the tropics which is my main focus. Looking at the power point the new GFS has problems with the QBO and has had an increase in the negative bias winds in the tropics. The new GFS is also weaker with the African easterly Jet compared to the previous GFS and according to international desk they think the new GFS and ECMWF are too weak with the strength of tropical waves.


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Hi GW man!


Actually several years ago I spent all of my blogging time in here chasing swirls, there is more to weather than hurricanes and climate is the study of large scale weather trends.

7294. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.


About 82 knots.
90L=MONSTER
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Actually several years ago I spent all of my blogging time in here chasing swirls, there is more to weather than hurricanes and climate is the study of large scale weather trends.



That is your opinion.
Quoting jeffs713:

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.
So just a little but more than 80 knots. Thanks for the info!
7298. FLdewey
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Actually several years ago I spent all of my blogging time in here chasing swirls, there is more to weather than hurricanes and climate is the study of large scale weather trends.



Well we look forward to you going back to serious topics while we chase swirls. ;-)
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ohhhh okay. 900 mb isn't that far above the surface though.

5000 feet can make a big difference. less friction, for one thing.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. I don't expect to see any change in the percentage for 90L since it has lost a lot of convection. If it is increased to 30%, it's simply because it was classified an invest and has a 1010mb low associated with it.


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.
Really?
7302. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.


I read the powerpoint, and I think it is likely what the HPC international desk thinks, that it is somewhere in between, with the ECMWF/New GFS on one end and the old GFS on the other. I agree with every observation they made. Hopefully some improvements are made soon because the trade wind errors are pretty bad, and can result in a great deal of inaccuracy in the tropics.
7303. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.


I'm favoring the old GFS for the tropics than the new GFS based on the document you provided. Do have have documents regarding the new GFS handling of moisture and the skill level?
omg no there is a new blog sorry folks
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Sheri I believe Dr Masters is off for the week and thats why we have not had a change in the Blog....

Taco :o)
By the way I "Totally Agree" with you 100%


Thanks Taco :)
So what cha think about the wave? Is it trying to detach itself from the Itz? probably spelled that wrong.
sheri
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L=MONSTER

Hate to say so KOTG , but you could be spot on, I would say anywhere from the gulf coast to to N Carolina needs to watch it.
Quoting btwntx08:
omg no there is a new blog sorry folks


Didn't he say "Friday @ latest?"
Quoting Snowlover123:


That is your opinion.


Ummm...what? So there isn't more to weather than hurricanes? So climate isn't the study of large scale weather trend?
LESS than 20mins to NHC TWO update activate your F5keys now
NEW BLOG FINALLY!
7312. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really?


Diurnal cycles affect everything in the tropics, with no bias towards certain types of systems. Certain tropical systems will sometimes swing back and forth more drastically with the diurnal cycles when they are sitting on the edge of a cliff and are close to not being able to sustain themselves. 92L this year was the most classic example of that you will ever find.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hate to say so KOTG , but you could be spot on, I would say anywhere from the gulf coast to to N Carolina needs to watch it.


Most of the convection, according to some of these model runs, is to the north of the system, so if it does make landfall in NC, like Isabel, the Mid-Atlantic would get hit.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7f/Hurricane_Isabel_18_sept_2003_1555Z.jpg/45 5px-Hurricane_Isabel_18_sept_2003_1555Z.jpg

Isabel @ landfall.
7314. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I read the powerpoint, and I think it is likely what the HPC international desk thinks, that it is somewhere in between, with the ECMWF/New GFS on one end and the old GFS on the other. I agree with every observation they made. Hopefully some improvements are made soon because the trade wind errors are pretty bad, and can result in a great deal of inaccuracy in the tropics.


The thing that stood out to me the most was the differences in the African Easterly Jet. It really is a shame to see considering the AEJ breeds easterly waves.
Gulp, KOTG.
Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal cycles affect everything in the tropics, with no bias towards certain types of systems. Certain tropical systems will sometimes swing back and forth more drastically with the diurnal cycles when they are sitting on the edge of a cliff and are close to not being able to sustain themselves. 92L this year was the most classic example of that you will ever find.
Ok. Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.


Yes, I know that.

NEW BLOG NO MORE GW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:


Very well put; I couldn't agree with you more.

I've been watching this blog for years, but only got around to joining last year, as my job kept me from participating. I try to join in now when I can, but I have to say it's highly annoying to wade through literally hundreds of posts stating "Hey, how ya' doin?" or "Is there any chance 92L will hit central Florida as a Cat 5?" or "JFV, we know i's you. POOF!", only to be told by those same people to stop commenting on the very topic of the blog post. But you know what I do when I'm annoyed by a certain post? I skip pver it. To those so deeply bothered by talk of GW, I'd politely suggest you do the same.


Yea there are too many non technical obstructions to reasonable discourse in here sometimes. This is ultimately a science based site and that is the reason for its popularity and longevity.

Unfortunately as international traffic increases - as I have noticed on my blog, this as a predominately American concerned area becomes more of an embarrassment on a larger scale, to me as a rural Floridian.

People posting irresponsibility shouldn't be the status quo, but I also think that is valid advice and I ignore most of it. I do not like to see others being treated poorly however for discussing the blog topic.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea there are too many non technical obstructions to reasonable discourse in here sometimes. This is ultimately a science based site and that is the reason for its popularity and longevity.

Unfortunately as international traffic increases - as I have noticed on my blog, this as a predominately American concerned area becomes more of an embarrassment on a larger scale, to me as a rural Floridian.

People posting irresponsibility shouldn't be the status quo, but I also think that is valid advice and I ignore most of it. I do not like to see others being treated poorly however for discussing the blog topic.

BYE
"Climate Change" is a more apt and descriptive label to the effects of global warming. As you are applying a large general observation to a specific area at a time when discussing it usually - and that specific area may or may not be warming even though it is experiencing change on some level.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree. And once it completely does pull out, we should expect development to take place.

How fast there is some dry air to the north as well as dust? I think it will develop but not as fast as it might otherwise..


wow very very good conditions for 90L

from SSD



from RAMMB

Quoting jeffs713:

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So just a little but more than 80 knots. Thanks for the info!


Quoting Levi32:


About 82 knots.



Where are you guys getting that? 20% of 109 is 21.8, or around 22. 109-22 is 87. 15% of 109 is around 16. 109-16 is 93, so 87-93 knots, so more or less 90 knots rather than 80 knots. I think?
Quoting Drakoen:


The thing that stood out to me the most was the differences in the African Easterly Jet. It really is a shame to see considering the AEJ breeds easterly waves.
Sorry and it's probably posted a couple hundred comments back but link the to the PP file please..
I saw someone said a 20knot discrepancies in Trade Winds? That deadly for me..20 knots is a nice sail 40 knots is BAD..
Wowsa! Talking about bullish on 90L!

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND ITS STILL AT 650 MILES. THIS INVEST 90l IS MOVING VERY SLOW
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


120 HR NEAR 19N 51W NEAR CAT 3
THAT is way off..i do not see that happern at all. not in 120 hours..this invest 90L IS MOVING TO SLOW.
6 HOURS WENT BY AND INVEST 90L ONLY MOVE 50 MILES..THAT IS SO SLOW.
% IS GOING HIGHER
74 blog pages in my short view - now, that's a storm comin up or wat ;)
Speak normally....you sound so fake! Get lost with your dialogue..I thought you would disappear by now..Goodbye and fly away with your GW thoughrs!!!! Bye the way make sure you stay in N. Florida with your good ole boys and stay out of S. Florida


Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea there are too many non technical obstructions to reasonable discourse in here sometimes. This is ultimately a science based site and that is the reason for its popularity and longevity.

Unfortunately as international traffic increases - as I have noticed on my blog, this as a predominately American concerned area becomes more of an embarrassment on a larger scale, to me as a rural Floridian.

People posting irresponsibility shouldn't be the status quo, but I also think that is valid advice and I ignore most of it. I do not like to see others being treated poorly however for discussing the blog topic.
Some of my African and Arab American friends asked why are no hurricanes named by their names such as Jamal, Lekeisha, Akbar and Abdul, for example? They use all kinds of European, Hispanic, even Russian and occasional Asian names. Is there a racial bias in naming these storms?
wow, left some hours, came back and over 7300+ posts! Is this finally a record?