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Storm surge barriers: the New England experience

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:22 PM GMT on November 25, 2011

Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the strongest hurricane to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. A destructive storm surge of 13 feet (4 meters) barreled though Long Island Sound into Stamford, Connecticut, inundating the downtown region and causing heavy damage ($6 million in 1938 dollars.) Sixteen years later, a storm surge from Hurricane Carol of 1954 inundated the city again, causing $3.4 million in damage. In response to these twin storm surge disasters, work was begun in 1965 on a 17-foot high, $14 million (1965 dollars) hurricane barrier. Completed in 1969, the barrier across Stamford Harbor is high enough to protect the city from a storm surge of 14.8 feet above mean sea level. Had the barrier been in place during Hurricane Carol, the Army Corps of Engineers estimates damage to Stamford could have been reduced by 85%.


Figure 1. Bedford Street looking south towards Broad Street in Stamford, Connecticut, after the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Image credit: stamfordhistory.org.


Figure 2. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters the Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The Providence storm surge barrier
Stamford isn't the only New England city that suffered destructive storm surges from the 1938 and 1954 hurricanes. The 1938 hurricane brought a storm surge that covered the commercial district of Providence, Rhode Island with 8 feet (2.5 m) of water, causing $16.3 million in damage. On August 31, 1954, Hurricane Carol produced a storm surge of up to 14.4 feet (4.4 m) in Narragansett Bay, surpassing that of the New England Hurricane of 1938. The resulting storm surge flooded downtown Providence with 12 feet (3.7 m) of water. Some entire coastal communities were nearly destroyed, and damage was estimated at $25.1 million. In response to the devastation wrought by these storms, a $15 million hurricane barrier 25 feet (7.6 m) high was built across the 1000-foot (300 m) entrance to Providence Harbor between 1961 - 1966.


Figure 3. A ship passes through the Providence, Rhode Island storm surge barrier. Image credit: Douglas Hill, EngScD, P.E., Stony Brook University.

The New Bedford storm surge barrier
New Bedford, Massachusetts lies near the end of a narrow bay, and narrow bays and river estuaries can act as funnels that focus storm surges to extreme heights if the hurricane's direction of motion is aligned so that the surge propagates up the bottleneck. In fact, the shape of the coast near New Bedford makes it the most vulnerable portion of the U.S. coast for a hurricane storm surge. The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford. Destructive storm surges hit New Bedford during the 1938 hurricane and 1954's Hurricane Carol, the latter storm causing $8.3 million in flood damages. A hurricane barrier 23 feet (7 m) high and 4900 feet (1500 m) long across New Bedford Harbor was completed in 1966 at a cost of $19 million (1966 dollars.) The barrier separates the New Bedford Harbor from Buzzard's Bay, and successfully kept out the 8 foot (2.5 m) storm surge from Hurricane Bob in 1991, and a 6.5 foot (2 m) surge from the January 1997 Nor'easter.


Figure 4.The 4,900 foot-long New Bedford, Massachusetts storm surge barrier as seen using Google Earth. The city of New Bedford lies to the north (top) of this image.


Figure 5.The four regions of the U.S. theoretically prone to storm surges in excess of 33 feet at the coast. These Maximum of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters (MOM) SLOSH model plots are for a maximum strength hurricane hitting at high tide. A theoretical peak storm surge of 33 - 34 feet (pink colors) is predicted by the SLOSH model for New York City near the JFK Airport (upper left), for the Big Bend region of the Florida Gulf Coast (lower right), and for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (lower left). The highest theoretical surge occurs at New Bedford, Massachusetts (upper right): 38.5 feet for a Category 4 hurricane.

More storm surge barriers needed
Storm surge barriers in Stamford, New Bedford, and Providence have already proved their worth and prevented damages more than the cost of their construction. For example, the Stamford barrier kept out the storm surge from the December 1992 Nor'easter, which neighboring New York City suffered storm surge flooding of it subway system and roads that caused hundreds of millions in damage. Similar barriers in the Netherlands and England's Thames River have also proved their worth, and multi-billion dollar storm surge barriers are nearing completion in St. Petersburg, Russia and the Venice Lagoon in Italy. Many more such barriers will be needed world-wide in the coming decades, because of sea level rise.
Sea level rose an average of 7 inches (18 cm) during the 20th century. The 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted global sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 feet (18 - 59 cm) by 2100--excluding the contribution from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Several studies published since that report predict much higher levels of sea level increase will occur if one includes the melting from Greenland and Antarctica, For example, a 2008 paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (80 - 200 cm.) If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, storm surge damage could easily double of triple, particularly if climate change makes the strongest storms stronger. A Report to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing development on the U.S. coast would experience a 36 - 58% increase in annual damages for a 1-foot rise in sea level, and a 102 - 200% increase for a 3-foot rise. Much of this additional damage would result from storm surges riding on top of heightened sea levels. As I'll report on in future blog posts in this series, even if the sea level does not rise this century, there are three locations along the U.S. coast that should immediately begin planning to install hurricane storm surge barriers: New York City, Galveston/Houston, and Tampa Bay.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting tropicfreak:


AMEN



The Bible isn't just a bunch of stories and crap VABeach, it contains the Ultimate Truth! The Bible is nothing but the truth! The ONE AND ONLY perfect God wrote this and if you are going to disrespect it then you are well on your way to burning in hell forever.


Take this off of here please. We're tired of seeing religious BS on here.
Remember...there are books of the Bible the Vatican will not release.
Religion on WU?


Eject Goose.. Eject!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Religion on WU?


Eject Goose.. Eject!


Now back on topic. A lovely view of the West Pacific.



That swirl to the ENE of the Philippines would be a TS if it were in the Atlantic near Bermuda.....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Religion on WU?


Eject Goose.. Eject!


And religion becomes a subject of the blog again..

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

Anybody who speaks a word about religion is getting reported to admin. I hope you get banned. :-)
Ok stop with religious stuff.I came here to see if anybody posted anything interesting about the weather, or the inner workings of the earth. Sadly this is not true. There is nothing more dangerous in this world than religion.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And religion becomes a subject of the blog again..

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

Anybody who speaks a word about religion is getting reported to admin. I hope you get banned. :-)
Yo I just saw this, was not on the screen when posting.
Quoting SPLbeater:


God is pre-existent. God has been here for ever, ever and ever. there is NO beginneing to God, nobody nothing created him. he is eternal, and cannot correct himself because he has nothing to correct


lolololol
And yes, seriously. Stop it with the religious bull****, ffs. Nobody cares about your half-assed theological ramblings, probably even those who believe the same things you do. Now I know you're going to take this as "you're just frustrated because you know I'm right, you god-rebelling atheist you", but rest assured I have more firmness in my convictions than that.

Just remember what Saint Francis of Assissi once said:

"Preach the gospel at all times, and if necessary use words."

Now buzz off.
So hows the snow for the Southern US looking right now? NWS add Rain/Snow to the forecast! I hope we get a dusting.
I see some N/C Tennessee getting a mix, probably gon change over during nightfall
On topic, here is what I've done in the "Meteorological Statistics" section for my report on Tropical Storm Lee:


b. Meteorological Statistics

Lee's peak intensity is difficult to assess, due to a sharp dichotomy within the available data. Near the time of peak intensity, flight-level winds from a reconnaissance aircraft occasionally supported surface winds of 50 kt, which was the intensity operationally assigned to Lee by the National Hurricane Center. In addition, an oil rig located south of Grand Isle reported sustained winds at the threshold of 50 kt at an elevation of 200 feet near 1200 UTC September 3. However, the standard methodology by which to adequately measure surface winds is at a height of 33 feet, so it is plausible that these winds were not quite being experienced at the surface. In addition, although the satellite and radar presentation of the tropical cyclone was improving during this time, the almost immediate degradation in appearance, along with surface observations from central and southeastern Louisiana, support lowering the wind to 45 kt. Even then, it is likely that these winds were confined to immediate coastal areas away from official observing sites, as well as in areas over water to the east of the center. Nevertheless, reconnaissance aircraft reported fairly strong winds at 850 mb with Lee during this time, so it is possible that brief wind gusts in excess of at least 50 kt occurred in areas of deeper convection in associated rainbands. However, convection was apparently never sustained or vigorous enough to successfully translate these winds aloft to the surface for any meaningful amount of time, if at all.

And yes, I realize I'm way behind the scheduled December 1 deadline, but you try and do it while working the morning shift when you aren't a morning person. :/
Quoting KoritheMan:
On topic, here is what I've done in the "Meteorological Statistics" section for my report on Tropical Storm Lee:


b. Meteorological Statistics

Lee's peak intensity is difficult to assess, due to a sharp dichotomy within the available data. Near the time of peak intensity, flight-level winds from a reconnaissance aircraft occasionally supported surface winds of 50 kt, which was the intensity operationally assigned to Lee by the National Hurricane Center. In addition, an oil rig located south of Grand Isle reported sustained winds at the threshold of 50 kt at an elevation of 200 feet near 1200 UTC September 3. However, the standard methodology by which to adequately measure surface winds is at a height of 33 feet, so it is plausible that these winds were not quite being experienced at the surface. In addition, although the satellite and radar presentation of the tropical cyclone was improving during this time, the almost immediate degradation in appearance, along with surface observations from central and southeastern Louisiana, support lowering the wind to 45 kt. Even then, it is likely that these winds were confined to immediate coastal areas away from official observing sites, as well as in areas over water to the east of the center. Nevertheless, reconnaissance aircraft reported fairly strong winds at 850 mb with Lee during this time, so it is possible that brief wind gusts in excess of at least 50 kt occurred in areas of deeper convection in associated rainbands. However, convection was apparently never sustained or vigorous enough to successfully translate these winds aloft to the surface for any meaningful amount of time, if at all.

And yes, I realize I'm way behind the scheduled December 1 deadline, but you try and do it while working the morning shift when you aren't a morning person. :/

November 30 deadline*
Quoting SPLbeater:


Christianity isnt a religion. its a relationship with Jesus Christ. now im done with this subject because i want to talk cyclones. TA13 mail me your bad attitude comments, dont need them here


Okay...how old is planet earth? This is weather related.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Christianity isnt a religion.


"But... if I admit to it being a religion, my entire life will have been a lie!"

Seriously, why the **** are so many Christians afraid to admit this? Is your faith so weak that admittance of such somehow undermines the very foundation of your beliefs?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And religion becomes a subject of the blog again..

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

Anybody who speaks a word about religion is getting reported to admin. I hope you get banned. :-)


Thank you my good friend.
Forget this, u guys just cant help yourselves. Tropical when this is over PM me.
Quoting KoritheMan:


"But... if I admit to it being a religion, my entire life will have been a lie!"

Seriously, why the **** are so many Christians afraid to admit this? Is your faith so weak that admittance of such somehow undermines the very foundation of your beliefs?

*Moves mouse to |!| button*.....I will press it, even on you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

November 30 deadline*


No, December 1. That's when the NHC releases theirs.
28 NOV 2011 023000UTC

CI#/ Pressure/ Vmax
2.8/ 1000.8mb/ 41.0kt

Raw T# 2.8
Adj T# 2.8
Final T# 2.8

Center Temp: -65.1C
Cloud Region Temp: -67.3C

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

how is it the raw, adj, and final T#'s can be excactly the same?
Quoting caneswatch:


Thank you my good friend.


I am on your side too canes...Just trying to prove a point. Don't think bad of me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? You were supposed to be terrified and everybody was supposed to go back to the weather...

LOL.


Well how about this? Since I'm doing Lee's report as we speak, I'll post the data as it comes in.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I am on your side too canes...Just trying to prove a point. Don't think bad of me.


I'm not :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well how about this? Since I'm doing Lee's report as we speak, I'll post the data as it comes in.


You shouldn't do anybody else's school work for them. Let Lee do it himself.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Okay...how old is planet earth? This is weather related.



I still don't understand why we just can't ask Grothar...
Quoting Grothar:


You shouldn't do anybody else's school work for them. Let Lee do it himself.


ZING!
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.


and all i wanted was snow... sigh... dang it
Quoting Grothar:


You shouldn't do anybody else's school work for them. Let Lee do it himself.


Yeah but see, I have something in common with Lee. He made landfall here, after all. ;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



I still don't understand why we just can't ask Grothar...


I'm under a gag order.
Quoting Grothar:
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.




Hehehe

Is this the microwave image? i think this is what i been searching for for months
Quoting Grothar:
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.




LOL. smart workers xD
Quoting Grothar:


I'm under a gag order.


Not according to Mrs. Grothar.
Quoting Grothar:
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.




Sigh, only here in South Florida haha
I think 05A is more then 35kts....i would say 40kt atleast, looking at this
Quoting Grothar:
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.




Could it be that since schools are having trouble getting funding that they have reorganized under a new name?
And the SW Pacific remains quiet..for now, lol
Watching the temp slide down toward 37.. maybe snow tonight.. tomorrow night almost certain.. Middle TN is full of surprises!
Quoting JNCali:
Watching the temp slide down toward 37.. maybe snow tonight.. tomorrow night almost certain.. Middle TN is full of surprises!


i trade you an inch of rainwater inside a lil cup for a snowball..
I'll be leaving tomorrow and probably won't be on for a while. Remember, 'tis the season to be jolly. Play nice while I am gone.
Quoting Grothar:
I'll be leaving tomorrow and probably won't be on for a while. Remember, 'tis the season to be jolly. Play nice while I am gone.


Meh, there's no joy to be had in Christmas anyway. Last minute shopping, frantic preparation of dinner/dessert, and the inevitable family drama.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 28 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression O ver East Central Arabian Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central Arabian Sea continued to move northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB04-2011 lays centered near 13.5N 70.0E, or 400 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 700 km southwest of Mumbai and 550 km west of Manglore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 24 hrs. and then it is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast.

Forecast and Intensity (Estimated)
=======================

6 HRS: 14.5N 69.0E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 15.0N 68.0E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 65.5E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 17.0N 63.0E - 25-30 knots (Depression)
Quoting Grothar:
I'll be leaving tomorrow and probably won't be on for a while. Remember, 'tis the season to be jolly. Play nice while I am gone.


I guess you did not get the memo, Grothar. You are suppose to go the NE coast in summer and the SE coast in winter. Hawaii is open year round.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meh, there's no joy to be had in Christmas anyway. Last minute shopping, frantic preparation of dinner/dessert, and the inevitable family drama.


Ok, Ebenezer, you take care, too!
Quoting Grothar:


Ok, Ebenezer, you take care, too!


;)
Quoting Grothar:
I'll be leaving tomorrow and probably won't be on for a while. Remember, 'tis the season to be jolly. Play nice while I am gone.


We will miss you Gro!
TAWX, if you're still around...

*continued from previous page*

Lee's large wind field produced tropical storm force winds across a large section of the northern Gulf Coast. Sustained winds of 25 kt, with a gust to 35 kt, were reported in Baton Rouge near 1000 UTC local time on September 3. New Orleans Lakefront airport reported an almost continuous flurry of tropical storm force wind gusts beginning from September 2 through September 5, and sustained winds briefly achieved 35 kt, accompanied by gusts to near 50 kt, at 1026 UTC September 3. A wind gust to 40 kt was recorded in Biloxi, Mississippi at 1042 UTC local time September 5, though this was observation has not been corroborated by an official National Weather Service observing station. Mobile, Alabama reported a peak wind gust of 45 kt just after 0600 UTC September 5. The highest wind reports from an official reporting station occurred in Pensacola, Florida on September 5 just prior to 1600 UTC, when a wind gust to 60 kt was reported, accompanied by sustained winds of 40 kt. While Lee was still producing tropical storm force winds during this time, cold air advection associated with an unseasonably strong cold front moving through the central United States had successfully caused Lee to become post-tropical during that time. It is likely that the lingering convection in the eastern quadrant on September 5 was due to warm southerly flow in advance of the front keeping that portion of the circulation healthy, or at least more tropical.
India Meteorological Department
Additional Information for Advisory #10
======================================

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T2.0. The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 19.0N and 64.0E to 71.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.
Quoting Grothar:
I'll be leaving tomorrow and probably won't be on for a while. Remember, 'tis the season to be jolly. Play nice while I am gone.


Cheers Grothar...

You hurry on back safely, Grothar :)
Trolling the weather wire..

Freeze warning SE Texas..

Chance of flooding this week in Chatanooga/N GA area..

Another tragic drought loss in TX...Christmas Trees. 2/3rds of them died..


Wacky weather day in Alberta

Edmonton will see 20-degree swings this week, meteorologist says

In downtown Calgary, winds were clocked at 149 kilometres per hour. The high winds wreaked havoc throughout the city, downing power lines, breaking windows, and even ripping off three light-rail crossing arms, causing transit delays. Police urged residents to stay indoors as flying debris became a hazard on roads and walkways.

Near Hinton, RCMP said poor weather had created hazardous driving conditions after a passenger bus carrying a midget AA hockey team from Edmonton rolled shortly before 1:30 p.m. Sunday.



2 week UN climate summit starts tomorrow in S Africa.

Zimbabwe had a thin harvest leaving ~1 million hungry.

Australia hailed they drought proofed their food bowl, their environmentalists say plan isn't sustainable.
Hades~ TRMM hasn't had a pass of 05A in 2 days. Should get a pass soon.
Dvorak Intensity says 50< mph winds with 05A

CI#/ Pressure/ Vmax
3.1/ 996.9mb/ 47.0kt
05A
As of 050000UTC 11/28/2011

Raw T# 4.0
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.1
It just blew up..
what i cant figure out, is why the JTWC doesnt seem to be factoring in the T#'s? 35kts, and 47kts arent very close:)
Quoting SPLbeater:
As of 050000UTC 11/28/2011

Raw T# 4.0
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.1


In the half hour since it dropped nearly a mb.

2011NOV28 053000 3.2 988.2/ +0.0 / 49.0 3.2 3.3 4.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -84.46 -87.02 UNIFRM N/A 14.84 -68.15 FCST
Quoting Skyepony:
It just blew up..


nice, lol.
Comin together...
im hungry
Quoting SPLbeater:


nice, lol.


It had that same 0500 time stamp you were talking about too. Check that loop, it just goes boOM..

I'm out.
060000 UTC Tropical Cyclone 05A

CI#/ Pressure/ Vmax
3.3/ 994.4mb/ 51.0kt
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 28 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 14.0N 69.5E, or 450 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 650 km southwest of Mumbai and 600 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.
Statement as of 3:36 AM CST on November 28, 2011


... Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Storm
Watch...
which is in effect from this evening through Tuesday
morning.

* Snow accumulations... 3 inches or more.

* Timing... 6 PM CST this evening to noon CST Tuesday. The period
of heaviest snow will occur from midnight CST tonight until 6 am
CST Tuesday.

* Impacts... snow may disrupt travel across the watch area. Be
prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities... and
use caution while driving.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor
the latest forecasts.



Sjm
s.pac is pretty stormy for their late spring
Good Morning, all. A whole 35 degrees here in Louisiana. Going to have to go out a few minutes early and start the car up. Hope everyone has a wonderful Monday.
A few of my comments got removed last night for violating the community standards. I apologize for what I said in those comments, as I had had a few too many in the evening. What I said was inflammatory and unnecessary. I hope you all don't hold that against me.
63*F in Macon, Georgia this morning with light rain moving into the area. Forecast for tonight is a drop in temp to 34 degrees and a 30% chance of light snow Tues morning.

That would be really cool for the 29 th of November. Will get some photos if that happens. :)

Have a great day everyone.

Muggy outside with the front approaching. After today, beautiful for the rest of the week...



SNOWY day across the South today. Some places could get some snow flurries all the way down to Gulf Port, MISS.

Boy this looks very El-Ninoish.

More snow maybe on tap for the South next week. This seems to be the trend the last several years.



GFS wants to develope a December storm in the Caribbean.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
More snow maybe on tap for the South next week. This seems to be the trend the last several years.





That shows the rain/snow line right over DC just in time for my birthday!
Quoting islander101010:
s.pac is pretty stormy for their late spring

SPAC???? Where? What about the Indian Ocean, 2 invests and a TD.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH...


Winter Storm Watch

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM
CST TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
There is a consensus among the models that this will continue northwestward towards Puerto Rico before turning towards the north. All of the models consolidate it, many develop it into a subtropical/tropical cyclone...We'll have to see how it plays out over the next four days or so.


I heard that a strong El-Nino is possible next winter over the weekend I believe on MSNBC. If this happens then drought could appear over Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, ect. This also could throw a wrench into next years Hurricane Season.

Edit: Nevermind
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What? It takes several months to transition from La Nina to El Nino...It doesn't happen over a weekend...

We're not seeing El Nino until the end of next hurricane season...at least.
\


I meant next Winter and I've already changed this.
120000UTC

CI#/ Pressure/ Vmax
3.5/ 992.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Raw T# 3.4
Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening Flag: ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag: OFF
Never tracked one of these before..



whats going on,, 2 to 4 inches of snow for tupelo ms and here in pinehurst nc , nada nothing!!!! that is just wrong!
Quoting Grothar:
Street painters misspell school street sign -- in Lauderhill school zone
A sign painted in the road on NW 50th Street reads "scohol." The… (Amy Beth Bennett, Sun Sentinel)October 28, 2011|By Danielle Alvarez and Ihosvani Rodriguez, Sun SentinelLAUDERHILL — This could spell trouble for a group of pavement painters.

Just a block away from an elementary school, subcontractors goofed and stenciled the pavement with the letters “scohol.” Yep, you read that right: “scohol” instead of “school.”

The crew, working near the corner of 50th Street and Pine Island Road, seemingly failed to spell check its work on nearby signs for Banyan Elementary School.




That's because they can't speak or spell English, America wants cheap labor and this is what you get.

Freezing temps across SE TX this morning, with frosty roofs, open fields, pastures covered in a white essence. Temps from 29-32 degrees widespread. Bird bath was ice solid over as I went out to check before work.

And 1.05" of rain Saturday
Shaky mornin... 5.2


GFS has joined CMC in developing some Low NE PR...

so according to ADT, 05A got to atleast 60mph. but with JTWC, it only at 40mph. im pretty sure JTWC has it wrong
Freezing temps across SE TX this morning, with frosty roofs, open fields, pastures covered in a white essence. Temps from 29-32 degrees widespread. Bird bath was ice solid over as I went out to check before work.

And 1.05" of rain Saturday
Oh oh. Another embarrassment.

Last week, 5,000 files of private email correspondence among several of the world's top climate scientists were anonymously leaked onto the Internet. Like the first "climategate" leak of 2009, the latest release shows top scientists in the field fudging data, conspiring to bully and silence opponents, and displaying far less certainty about the reliability of anthropogenic global warming theory in private than they ever admit in public.

The scientists include men like Michael Mann of Penn State University and Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia, both of whose reports inform what President Obama has called "the gold standard" of international climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Quoting sunlinepr:
Shaky mornin... 5.2


There
s a large coronal mass ejection arriving on this side of the world today so some extra shaking can be expected.
608. mati
Massive wind storm in southern Alberta Canada.
Winds of up to 130km an hour tore through the province...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/109347 0--windows-ripped-from-office-building-in-calgary- windstorm

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/2 0111128/calgary-windstorm-southern-alberta-111128/ 20111128/?hub=MontrealHome

A friend saw 3 transport trucks blown off the highway and onto their sides...
Not waving, drowning. Thanks Dr. Masters.
6th Earthquake in 4 Days Recorded in Oklahoma

Published November 27, 2011
SPARKS, Oklahoma – Another small earthquake has been reported in Oklahoma.

The U.S. Geological Survey says a 3.2 magnitude quake struck just before 6 a.m. Sunday about 27 miles northeast of Oklahoma City. The Logan County Sheriff's Office says no damage was reported

On Saturday, a 2.4 magnitude tremor was recorded at about 7 a.m. about 50 miles northeast of Oklahoma City near Sparks.

Sunday's earthquake is the sixth in the area since Thursday, when a 3.7 magnitude quake was recorded near Prague. Three more were recorded Friday.

A 5.6 magnitude quake, the strongest ever recorded in Oklahoma, shook the state Nov. 5. That quake damaged dozens of homes, buckled a highway and caused other damage.

Geologists say earthquakes with magnitudes of 2.5 to 3.0 are generally the smallest felt by humans.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a consensus among the models that this will continue northwestward towards Puerto Rico before turning towards the north. All of the models consolidate it, many develop it into a subtropical/tropical cyclone...We'll have to see how it plays out over the next four days or so.




Is anyone else watching this? Latest PR forecast has it moving east of the lesser Antilles? A front moving in over Florida should keep it well East and North of the islands should it develop.

Had 6.4 earlier near New Guinea this morning CST
Quoting caperes2011:
Oh oh. Another embarrassment.

Last week, 5,000 files of private email correspondence among several of the world's top climate scientists were anonymously leaked onto the Internet. Like the first "climategate" leak of 2009, the latest release shows top scientists in the field fudging data, conspiring to bully and silence opponents, and displaying far less certainty about the reliability of anthropogenic global warming theory in private than they ever admit in public.

The scientists include men like Michael Mann of Penn State University and Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia, both of whose reports inform what President Obama has called "the gold standard" of international climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Fortunately, the credible major media appear to be so far doing their job this time researching and asking questions before reporting. It could be because they were so badly burned after the first "climategate", printing breathless headlines proclaiming an end to warming, just before nine separate independent investigations found no merit whatsoever to the accusations of wrongdoing. No conspiring, no bullying, no silencing, and no more uncertainty than usual; just scientists doing a difficult job as well as they can under sometimes harsh circumstances.

It sure would be nice to get some of that Tennessee snow down here in Florida; we've been much warmer than normal for the past two weeks, and are still waiting for our first real cold snap of the year. I hear next week may bring some frigid air our way...
Gotta love how the GW Agenda keep PUSHING! Follow the MONEY PEOPLE! That is all its about!
615. eddye
wow can jacksonville be looking at snow wensday and also how cold do u think it could get
616. flsky
Underwater icicle (brinicle) formation video.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

Fortunately, the credible major media appear to be so far doing their job this time researching and asking questions before reporting. It could be because they were so badly burned after the first "climategate", printing breathless headlines proclaiming an end to warming, just before nine separate independent investigations found no merit whatsoever to the accusations of wrongdoing. No conspiring, no bullying, no silencing, and no more uncertainty than usual; just scientists doing a difficult job as well as they can under sometimes harsh circumstances.

It sure would be nice to get some of that Tennessee snow down here in Florida; we've been much warmer than normal for the past two weeks, and are still waiting for our first real cold snap of the year. I hear next week may bring some frigid air our way...


Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL... just who conducted those nine separate independent investigations?

You decry the other side for leaving details out, why not make the first move and show everybody the right way to do things, and reveal those identities.

Let the rest of the population decide, for themselves, just how independent those investigations really were, as opposed to deciding for them like you seem to be doing now.

BTW...Have you taken the time to read any of those e-mails, either the earlier or the latest versions? I have, and what I have read is a clear demonstration of dishonest science. Either their schooling has dropped to an abhorrent low, or they are just lazy.

Did they break the law? Good question.


At 12:00 PM UTC. Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered near 15.0N 68.0E, or 650 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 700 km southwest of Mumbai, (India) 600 km west-southwest of Goa and 1150 km southeast of Masirah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The convection shows slight disorganization during past 6 hours, however, it may be temporarily due to diurnal variation. The organization of the convection attained peak intensity at around 6:00 AM UTC. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 21.0N and 61.0E to 71.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure is 998 hPa and the state of the sea is very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index lies in phase 3 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical forecast it would lie over the same phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 3 is favorable for intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreases to north and west. The ocean heat content is (80-90 kj/cm2) over southeast and central Arabian sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and northern Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence do not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has not changed during past 6 hours, it is moderate to high. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over central India. As a result, the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper tropospheric. However, after 24 hours, the system will move closer to west central Arabian Sea it will experience colder sea and also increase in vertical wind shear due to approaching westerly trough at middle and upper level which runs along 45.0E to the north of 15.0N. As a result if may show weakening trend after 24 hours. While some models like ECMWF suggest initial west northwest movement and then southwestwards. The GFS model shows northeastward recurvature of the system after 72 hours when the system reaches 20.0N.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 15.3N 67.3E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.6N 66.6E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 17.2N 63.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 18.5N 60.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting clamshell:


Perhaps you might TELL US ALL just who conducted those nine separate independent investigations?

You decry the other side for leaving details out, why not make the first move and show everybody the right way to do things, and reveal those identities.

Let the rest of the population decide, for themselves, just how independent those investigations really were, as opposed to deciding for them like you seem to be doing now.




NOW wouldn't that open up the discussion for criticism to probe the background of every study they have done! Which, is what they do with everything THEY don't like the science they don't agree with.......LOL
i wish we had another Ophelia to watch.....
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOW wouldn't that open up the discussion for criticism to probe the background of every study they have done which is what they do with everything THEY don't like the science they don't agree with.......LOL


Absolutely.

What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

Science is supposed to be an open book for all to see. Hiding or withholding data or deleting it is so suspicious, everyone should raise an eyebrow to that sort of conduct.

Neither side should expect to enjoy not having to be scrutinized.


RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 28 2011
=================================

During the last 24 hours, thunderstorm activity has strengthened within the oriental part of the ITCZ
between equator to 10S and 70E to 85E. At this time, it remains fluctuating and without any organization. Surface obs (buoys 23010 and 23692) along with ASCAT data of yesterday evening (1630Z) and this morning (0332Z) suggest that a weak low has formed in this area (position based on ascat data: 4.8S 80.0E). Estimated MSLP is 1006 hPa and winds are in the 5-15 kts range reaching locally 20 kt in the southern semi-circle. Initial motion seems to be rather fast at 10-15 kt towards the Southwest.

At present time, environmental conditions appear marginal with rather strong shear and poor
monsoon inflow. SST are in the 29C range. Within the next few days, if the current
southwestwards fast moving motion continues, shear should gradually decrease (mainly south of
10S). Low level inflow should stay marginal Tuesday and part of Wednesday (weaker subtropical
ridge due to a transient mid-lat trough), but should improve significantly after that as the ridge
rebuits from the southwest associated to a forecast rather strong monsoon flow between 60E and
80E.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected Tuesday. It becomes poor to fair Wednesday
and Thursday.


Quoting clamshell:


Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL... just who conducted those nine separate independent investigations?

You decry the other side for leaving details out, why not make the first move and show everybody the right way to do things, and reveal those identities.

Let the rest of the population decide, for themselves, just how independent those investigations really were, as opposed to deciding for them like you seem to be doing now.

BTW...Have you taken the time to read any of those e-mails, either the earlier or the latest versions? I have, and what I have read is a clear demonstration of dishonest science. Either their schooling has dropped to an abhorrent low, or they are just lazy.

Did they break the law? Good question.




Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL

http://www.unep.org/pdf/PressReleases/Project_on_ Climate_Science_review.pdf


I am not so techie as some, but do copy and paste the link above.

I have a big, wide, mean independent streak, so I do my own research instead of taking what I have heard as the literal truth. A quick google search will reveal arguments for both sides. Always check for yourself.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL

http://www.unep.org/pdf/PressReleases/Project_on_ Climate_Science_review.pdf


I am not so techie as some, but do copy and paste the link above.

I have a big, wide, mean independent streak, so I do my own research instead of taking what I have heard as the literal truth. A quick google search will reveal arguments for both sides. Always check for yourself.


Site responds Error! Page not found.

Regardless, the UN is hardly what anyone could possibly call an unbiased source or any form of information regarding the subject of climate or its effect on mankind. Which leads to my previous point, we need to be very careful in our selection of sources that we, personally, deem as reputable and dependably not biased.

This what we all should have been doing a long long time ago. The job of the media should be to draw our attention to a particular issue and then it should be OUR responsibility to check it out for ourselves.