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Still watching for a potential early-season Atlantic subtropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:10 PM GMT on May 16, 2009

The latest 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to indicate the possibility of an early season subtropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico 3 - 7 days from now. A modest area of low shear air is expected to open up between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south, between Cuba and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models have not been consistent with the timing or the size of this low shear area, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them back off again from this forecast with Sunday's set of runs. Nevertheless, I'll call once again for a 10% chance of development of a subtropical depression in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, 4 - 7 days from now. There isn't much of a disturbance at present to look at--there are some scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica, but they are under a hefty 30 knots of wind shear. These showers should gradually increase in intensity and areal coverage over the next two days, and phase space diagrams from Florida State University indicate that an extratropical low may form near the western tip of Cuba 2 - 3 days from now. The storm may then gradually transition to a subtropical or tropical system later in the week, if the shear is low enough. Even if the shear is high and the storm remains extratropical, it could be a substantial rain-maker where it comes ashore. The models target the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle as the most likely landfall location, but it is too early to place any confidence in this track.

There is also about a 10% chance a subtropical storm may form in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.


Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Wundermet:
Once shear decreases, there is a chance that the center will relocate, which will alter the model consensus.


Shear is actually what causes a center to relocate. If shear persists then we might see the center relocate to the SE of Jamaica where the heavy convection has been shunted to. If the shear continues to ease look for the convection to build back to the W between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands .

That is where the trough axis is and also where we see a rotation in the cloud field.
1002. cg2916
Once the shear drops, the system should get more organized. At this point, it seems that only shear is holding it back.
Quoting IKE:


While I'm pushing a mower up and down a hill.:(

Lucky.



No hills on the SW end of the island where I live. Flat as a table top LOL
is there any possible way this could hit the florida peninsula. i'm in mobile,al
Quoting kmanislander:


Shear is actually what causes a center to relocate. If shear persists then we might see the center relocate to the SE of Jamaica where the heavy convection has been shunted to. If the shear continues to ease look for the convection to build back to the W between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands .

That is where the trough axis is and also where we see a rotation in the cloud field.


If it does relocate beneath the convection mass, the track will shift further east. The 12z run will be interesting nonetheless.
See you all later. Time to hit the links.
1007. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


No hills on the SW end of the island where I live. Flat as a table top LOL


Figures....:(

LOL...enjoy your golf KMAN.
1008. cg2916
Looking a bit better... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html.
1009. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
See you all later. Time to hit the links.


FOUR!
1010. ackee
most of the showers is moveing east there is a slight spin SE of jamaica if this contiune dont see anything devloping from this system
1011. IKE
Latest image....

Quoting kmanislander:


Shear is actually what causes a center to relocate. If shear persists then we might see the center relocate to the SE of Jamaica where the heavy convection has been shunted to. If the shear continues to ease look for the convection to build back to the W between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands .

That is where the trough axis is and also where we see a rotation in the cloud field.


It blew up!
WOW
1012

The winds does seem more cyclonic near the convection
1015. cg2916
Quoting SevereHurricane:
It blew up!
WOW

?
Severehurricane don't let it deceive you, it is highly disorganized
Good morning all... Maybe first Invest of the year?
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE LINE FROM 11N40W TO 5N42W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE ANALYSIS A FEW
DAYS AGO AND THEN DROPPED BECAUSE IT WAS NOT ABLE TO BE DETECTED
IN OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THAT TIME ANY MORE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W.


Just thought to put that out there.

For the Caribbean.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG 79W/80W FROM 16N TO 21N. MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY TO THE EAST OF
THE LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL AND 78W.
Quoting Wundermet:
Severehurricane don't let it deceive you, it is highly disorganized


I know,
It doesn't even contain a LLC.
Convectivly speaking it is still looking healthier by the image.
This is starting to gain Sub-Tropical characteristics.
1021. hahaguy
Wow I just looked at radar it has some really nice convection.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is starting to gain Sub-Tropical characteristics.


Is it just me or does it look kinda dry?
Hi all! It's been awhile! Haven't "seen" many of you in the off season... And now we are about to get started again. Crazy! We'll see if my nerves can handle another summer ;)
Wait a minute!. Does Weather456 work for the NHC? This was posted on is blog at 5am:

There are no tropical waves analyzed at this time in the tropical Atlantic or over the mainland of Africa. The first tropical wave that emerged over the waters last week is not being analyzed by the Tropical Prediction center but based on continuation, TPW loops and low level infrared winds, the feature is most likely located near 40W, south of 10N.

Now look at:

1018. CybrTeddy 12:43 PM GMT on May 17, 2009
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE LINE FROM 11N40W TO 5N42W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE ANALYSIS A FEW
DAYS AGO AND THEN DROPPED BECAUSE IT WAS NOT ABLE TO BE DETECTED
IN OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THAT TIME ANY MORE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W.

For some reason, he always seems to be ahead of them.
ir. cloud top need to get alittle higher. any jamaica reports?
howdy all, holey moley a blob already, free entertainment getting started early this year. This is not scientific but I recon it will go to the DR because the boss just flew down there to dive on our wreck we have in samana bay and the bad weather follows him every where, he has major bad karma weather wise LOL
Geeze, 06GFS is getting a little low happy for Florida. Showing 3 Lows in the Forecast period to traverse the state. I am not wishing for rain anymore, lol, we would be waterlogged for sure if this were to come true.
1024. hurricaneseason2006 8:51 AM AST on May 17, 2009

No I do not work for them.

Speaking of NHC

NHC to reference new experimental Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Quoting Weather456:
1024. hurricaneseason2006 8:51 AM AST on May 17, 2009

No I do not work for them.

Speaking of NHC

NHC to reference new experimental Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale


Not sure how everyone feels about the sep. categorizations... but I think it's a great idea. I think it would have saved lives in Ike.
Blog Refresh


Area of Interest #1


Area of Interest #2
Good Morning everyone
good morning
Hey TS! Was just on your drink blog :)
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Hey TS! Was just on your drink blog :)


MY Drink Blog.......hummmmmmmmm....LOL

Its not that long is it.......LOL
1036. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:


MY Drink Blog.......hummmmmmmmm....LOL

Its not that long is it.......LOL

Didn't you say you had your own model? Where is it?
Good Morning. This is my first post. Can someone bring me up to speed on what happened last night.
Well TS, my avatar has changed this year. It used to be my nice little rainbow LOL. A bit of a change huh?
Quoting cg2916:

Didn't you say you had your own model? Where is it?


Its actually a statisictically Model of inputted values to determine if conditions are above or below average for development....its at my web site under the tab......TROPICAL PREDICTION ANALYSIS

Link
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Well TS, my avatar has changed this year. It used to be my nice little rainbow LOL. A bit of a change huh?


LOL..Hey all you have left to do is clean the closet out....ROFLMAO
1041. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its actually a statisictically Model of inputted values to determine if conditions are are above or below average for development....its at my web site under the tab......TROPICAL PREDICTION ANALYSIS

Link


Hi all, Just jumpin in for a few. Does our item in the Carrib, have any low level circulation yet? I have not had a chance to back read the 1000 entries yet :)


Tampa did you use your model for your picks?

Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL..Hey all you have left to do is clean the closet out....ROFLMAO


HAHA.. man I hope not. That was scary that day! But I would like some rain... NOTHING else. I'll be very specific about that this year.

Hey - the black dot in my avatar is my house lol ;)
What's new with the Caribbean disturbance. Did the Quickscat pick it up on its last pass
1044. dearmas
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its actually a statisictically Model of inputted values to determine if conditions are are above or below average for development....its at my web site under the tab......TROPICAL PREDICTION ANALYSIS

Link


Did you see the 7 day rain for us in Tampa, wow lots of rain on the way
Quoting Ossqss:


Hi all, Just jumpin in for a few. Does our item in the Carrib, have any low level circulation yet? I have not had a chance to back read the 1000 entries yet :)


Tampa did you use your model for your picks?



Yes i used the model......if you look at the far tab at the bottom.....you can see what i choose for the Yearly Outlook and it coinsides with what i sent you....

Also nothing close to the lower levels yet.....everything is very high up at 500mb before anything appears....WAY UP THERE!
Beautiful Music by Ryan Farish, You can buy his albums online, I have a few.

Quoting surfmom:
Ike -- up so early on a sunday morning???? must be something to look at.... hee, hee



nice waves for you yesterday SM,did you catch any????
weak anti cyclone building over the cent. carib. disturbance
1049. Ossqss
As the novice hesitantly asks --- Is that a bit of outflow starting on this WV loop?

Link
good morning, can anyone please show me the models of this wave around jamaica. Thanks
Save this for the peak parts of Hurricane season!
Link
Quoting canesrule1:
good morning, can anyone please show me the models of this wave around jamaica. Thanks


06Z



00Z

Does anybody know the exact center of the carib disturbance
wundermet what's the link you get that from???
Quoting canesrule1:
wundermet what's the link you get that from???


Link
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Does anybody know the exact center of the carib disturbance


There is not a surface low yet.
Well I'm ready for this year... with a new outlook on the season, that's for sure. I look forward to learning from all our regs.

Later!
Good Morning. possible COC 17N/77.5W well removed from the deepest convection, in my opinion I think it has at least 30-50% chance of developing.
thanks, looks like its coming to miami, where i live
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


There is not a surface low yet.


Thanks. I really wanted to know because we are getting effects from this system right now
I'll be watching the area of convection in the central/east GOM for our "system" to develop in this area w/a ULL first froming over the area....
Actually a Sub-Tropical storm is getting better organized in the Atlantic than the blob south......It is getting LLC going.
in my opinion, ill give it a 70% chance, because its going under shear so that will make the center have to relocate possibly putting the COC where the deep convection is.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Geeze, 06GFS is getting a little low happy for Florida. Showing 3 Lows in the Forecast period to traverse the state. I am not wishing for rain anymore, lol, we would be waterlogged for sure if this were to come true.

Wow, getting 2004 flashbacks. If the Bermuda high stays where it is now and the early season is this active Central Florida may be in for a rough time. Although I think is way too early to panic since all we have at this stage are models and not even an invest.
1066. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:
Actually a Sub-Tropical storm is getting better organized in the Atlantic than the blob south......It is getting LLC going.

Hmmm....
Quoting TampaSpin:
Actually a Sub-Tropical storm is getting better organized in the Atlantic than the blob south......It is getting LLC going.
No way, the one in the atlantic is too dried out and no convection all it is, is just a swirling low.
Quoting canesrule1:
No way, the one in the atlantic is too dried out and no convection all it is, is just a swirling low.


I guess we will see in time....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/jsl-l.jpg
There is no center in the carribean...not even close..the disturbance is a trough in the mid and upper levels

Over the next 24-36 hrs..a broad low will form near Cuba...and move N..exact location of the low is different in each model you look @. The low wont be fully @ the surface @ any time during the next 4-5 days. Pressures will drop over the gulf stream Tues into Weds...and a sub-tropical storm could be classified.. how strong this gets before coming ashore in eastern florida is too hard to guess..and once in the gulf..it has a chance to develop a warmer core Thurs into Friday.

Overall...its not there now or even during the next 24hrs.. everything you may see are not in the low levels...and by Monday..it will still be just becoming a large broad circulation..with a mid level low forming near cuba from this trough in the mid-levels. It wont pick up really any tropical char until Mon night into Tues once off the Keys or S Florida.
check it out
Looks like the caribbean blob is fading away imo
Quoting canesrule1:
in my opinion, ill give it a 70% chance, because its going under shear so that will make the center have to relocate possibly putting the COC where the deep convection is.


70% chance for it develop into WHAT a named storm......WOW!
Quoting scottsvb:
There is no center in the carribean...not even close..the disturbance is a trough in the mid and upper levels

Over the next 24-36 hrs..a broad low will form near Cuba...and move N..exact location of the low is different in each model you look @. The low wont be fully @ the surface @ any time during the next 4-5 days. Pressures will drop over the gulf stream Tues into Weds...and a sub-tropical storm could be classified.. how strong this gets before coming ashore in eastern florida is too hard to guess..and once in the gulf..it has a chance to develop a warmer core Thurs into Friday.

Overall...its not there now or even during the next 24hrs.. everything you may see are not in the low levels...and by Monday..it will still be just becoming a large broad circulation..with a mid level low forming near cuba from this trough in the mid-levels. It wont pick up really any tropical char until Mon night into Tues once off the Keys or S Florida.


DiDo
Quoting hurricanealley:
Looks like the caribbean blob is fading away imo


Hey, are you looking over your shoulder at the RAYS yet.....there coming!
Quoting TampaSpin:


70% chance for it develop into WHAT a named storm......WOW!
to develop a COC
the circulation everyone's seeing in our blob is in the mid-levels, not the surface,don't be suprised if it gets torn apart in the next 12hrs....but then again the area has persisted for about 24hrs now!!!,I'd place my bets on a area forming in the central/south GOM area...
Nothing anywere down there in regards to a surface circulation yet as the trough seems to be interacting with the fast upper level winds in the vicinity.Having seen any significant pressure drops in the area as of yet.
no LLC but a definitive mid level spin removed from the deepest convection.
Quoting canesrule1:
to develop a COC


So what is your difinition of a COC for Tropical development! Hummmmm
Quoting TampaSpin:


So what is your difinition of a COC for Tropical development! Hummmmm
What???
Quoting stillwaiting:
the circulation everyone's seeing in our blob is in the mid-levels, not the surface,don't be suprised if it gets torn apart in the next 12hrs....but then again the area has persisted for about 24hrs now!!!,I'd place my bets on a area forming in the central/south GOM area...


The Caribbean disturbance is going to get absorbed by the ULL coming in the Gulf.That's where the surface low will likely develop.
Below is the 850mb Vorticity and you have to go all the way to 500mb Vorticity before anything shows......ITS WAY UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE....i would not even consider it a mid level spin...Look in the middle of the Atlantic there is a nice Vorticity return at the 850mb in the middle of the Atlantic.



Quoting TampaSpin:


So what is your difinition of a COC for Tropical development! Hummmmm


What does your model say... yes or no?
Quoting canesrule1:
No way, the one in the atlantic is too dried out and no convection all it is, is just a swirling low.


Guess you weren't around for Andrea.
Lol. That was a dried STS, worse than that Extra/Sub Tropical Low in the Atlantic.
There is circulation in the mid levels of the atmosphere way south of jamaica in the latest loop
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey, are you looking over your shoulder at the RAYS yet.....there coming!


Great to see you guys starting to play well
Quoting hurricanealley:


Great to see you guys starting to play well


lol

GO SOX!
Quoting Orcasystems:


What does your model say... yes or no?


Give me 5 minutes to input the current values...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Guess you weren't around for Andrea.
Lol. That was a dried STS, worse than that Extra/Sub Tropical Low in the Atlantic.
I was around for andrea, and i will give you that she was more dried out, but this one is just a low with no convection, but i see what you mean.
Quoting canesrule1:
There is circulation in the mid levels of the atmosphere way south of jamaica in the latest loop
Quoting stormpetrol:
no LLC but a definitive mid level spin removed from the deepest convection.


I would say so myself, but to be honest I'm not that sure.
12z NAM is running
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey, are you looking over your shoulder at the RAYS yet.....there coming!


ROFL, I just looked at the standings... most teams can look over their shoulders to see the Rays.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv-l.jpg
Check it out you can see both systems how affected they are with the shear
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, I just looked at the standings... most teams can look over their shoulders to see the Rays.


Hey now....LOL....

Orca.....look at my values i put in and let me know if you see something different....but, the values i inputted only comes back with a +3% abover average conditions for development. Thats not much....
Quoting SevereHurricane:


lol

GO SOX!


Hopefully we can sweep the Blue Jays this week
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif
how can you post pictures on the comments, thanks.
Quoting hurricanealley:


Hopefully we can sweep the Blue Jays this week


They will...
1100. Patrap
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

Caribbean Sector,IR Loop
Quoting SevereHurricane:


The Caribbean disturbance is going to get absorbed by the ULL coming in the Gulf.That's where the surface low will likely develop.



possibly!!!..or a ULL w/split from the jet over the area and slowly MAY work to the surface IF its over warmer deep water and there's less sheer ...
Quoting canesrule1:
I was around for andrea, and i will give you that she was more dried out, but this one is just a low with no convection, but i see what you mean.


Andrea barley had any precipitation on radar, this one has much more. Andrea looked like a spinning version of a partly cloudy day in Florida with wind.
over 10% now. mjo is pulsing near the gulf. need to look the big picture. here is what i think will happen. starting tomorrow the weak carib system should start moving slowly north while this stalled out front moves into cent fl. as the system moves north into the front they slowly merge into one. tuesday or wednes as the high builds in it moves slowly wnw into fl and accross then up into the panhandle friday. it is going to be a slow process. will it develop? maybe a td.weak subtropical storm fasten down the hatches e florida happy weather
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey now....LOL....

Orca.....look at my values i put in and let me know if you see something different....but, the values i inputted only comes back with a 3% abover average conditions for development. Thats not much....


I don't think it stands a chance actually...



The shear will kill anything, or at least stop anything from developing
Quoting stillwaiting:



possibly!!!..or a ULL w/split from the jet over the area and slowly MAY work to the surface IF its over warmer deep water and there's less sheer ...


IMO there are several possible scenarios and that one.
Good morning all! I over-slept. Speak to me y'all, what's the latest info in regards to our system this marvelous morning?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don;t think it stands a chance actually...



The shear will kill anything, or at least stop anything from developing


Yeppers your correct.....
1110. Patrap
GFSO last 4 cycles
how do you post an image please tell me ,thanks.
Hmmm in 90 minutes.. I am going to be left alll alone to fend for myself.. SWMBO is gone for a week to Quebec... oh how will I survive all by my little lonesome.. with a full beer fridge and Hockey games.. oh woe is me :)
Quoting canesrule1:
how do you post an image please tell me thanks.


RobdaHood has a tutorial on his blog :)
'mornin' everyone.

Arm soreness from digging 70 holes on Friday is about over. I can type again! :)

This is a very interesting pre-game to the beginning of this year's hurricane season. The ULL spinnin' up and stayin' put...[we've all seen that before...] and the convection in the Carribean. Westerlies still movin' along...

Pretty cool! FL may get another dry day today, but I believe lots of rain is comin' soon.
1115. Patrap

SREF Last 4 Cycles
1116. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yeppers your correct.....


Shear value tendencies are dropping around the system, only time will tell.
I think we'll all be watching to the central/eastern GOM area by tomorrow morning....it appears the ULL may be starting to form south of AL/MISS border ou in the GOM:Link

this will be the area to watch,IMO...
1119. arasky
This is predicted in the Farmer's Almanac for Florida's long range May-June outlook.
Yea its trying to form now(ULL)guarantee it!!!
Only shear values at around 50knots for say or stronger would destroy this critter, otherwise watch out for development.
1122. Patrap
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Quoting stillwaiting:
Yea its trying to form now(ULL)guarantee it!!!


NO, not that, it's clearly attempting to form a SC.
it may form into T.D status if it gets a LLC, and then quickly die.
The plot thickens and the games begin, BRB, all.
the disturbance certinally has good convection.
1128. Patrap
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good morning all! I over-slept. Speak to me y'all, what's the latest info in regards to our system this marvelous morning?


good morning and a marvelous one at that,but dam that FL sun is strong!!!!,hows ft leeezy treating ya???......keep an eye on the cenral GOM area today.....
80% rain chance Tommrow and Tuesday.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Only shear values at around 50knots for say or stronger would destroy this critter, otherwise watch out for development.


It is next to impossible for anything to develop with these low of SST's and Shear of over 20kts.....Folks it's just not going to happen....Now could a Sub-Tropical something develop possibly but, nothing truly Tropical in nature.....
Quoting CycloneOz:
'mornin' everyone.

Arm soreness from digging 70 holes on Friday is about over. I can type again! :)

This is a very interesting pre-game to the beginning of this year's hurricane season. The ULL spinnin' up and stayin' put...[we've all seen that before...] and the convection in the Carribean. Westerlies still movin' along...

Pretty cool! FL may get another dry day today, but I believe lots of rain is comin' soon.



morning!!!,most of us know this scenerio,wait and see....
Good morning, just stopping in quickly. Caribbean disturbance still looks rather sheared, so I expect no imminent development. I'll keep an eye on it the next few days, if only for the lack of nothing better to watch.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It is next to impossible for anything to develop with these low of SST's and Shear of over 20kts.....Folks it's just not going to happen....Now could a Sub-Tropical something develop possibly but, nothing truly Tropical in nature.....


I dont see SST's as the issue here, more of a shear problem. Would have to agree subtropical development is much more likely than tropical.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It is next to impossible for anything to develop with these low of SST's and Shear of over 20kts.....Folks it's just not going to happen....Now could a Sub-Tropical something develop possibly but, nothing truly Tropical in nature.....


I agree with you on the shear aspect, but not completely on the SST's. Water temp is plenty warm to allow for tropical development there, albeit not warm enough for explosive development.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It is next to impossible for anything to develop with these low of SST's and Shear of over 20kts.....Folks it's just not going to happen....Now could a Sub-Tropical something develop possibly but, nothing truly Tropical in nature.....


I wouldn't speak so confidently if I were you, TS. Because remember, with Mother Nature one NEVER EVER knows and that is for damn sure right there. Smiles.
tampaspin you just put the jinx on us LOL
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I wouldn't speak so confidently if I were you, TS. Because remember, with Mother Nature one NEVER EVER knows and that is for damn sure right there. Smiles.
I agree with you 100%
As it stands right now, I wouldn't say this is gonna be our first storm of the season, unless it does find itself in a pocket of modestly low shear in a couple days time.
sub tropical development is definatly possible but it would take a whileas long as shear values do not go up which is almost never a given.
Quoting extreme236:


I dont see SST's as the issue here, more of a shear problem. Would have to agree subtropical development is much more likely than tropical.


12z NAM has a weak low during circles all around southeast florida through 78hrs.rain rain rain
Quoting Vortex95:
the disturbance certinally has good convection.

We are getting some of that convection where we are
Quoting extreme236:
As it stands right now, I wouldn't say this is gonna be our first storm of the season, unless it does find itself in a pocket of modestly low shear in a couple days time.


I think its reasonable to look in the CATL at that Low for the first one. This Caribbean system though might have a better chance because it has loads of models going for it.
Quoting hurricane23:


12z NAM has a weak low during circles all around southeast florida through 72hrs.rain rain rain


No storm anymore, Adrian. :(
1145. Heh a 20 incher?
ULL forming in the GOM now:Link
Quoting keywestbrat:
tampaspin you just put the jinx on us LOL


NO NO NO.....we are all just going to get a ton of rain which we all need......

OH here is some Troll Juice Recipes that you all might need today....LOL
Anyways the latest GFS model shows another system hitting Florida in about 200 hours from now, thoughts?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


No storm anymore, Adrian. :(



how do you know his name if your new here JFV????
Quoting hurricane23:


12z NAM has a weak low during circles all around southeast florida through 78hrs.rain rain rain


That sucks...I don't mind the occasional day of rain but when it gets excessive like that its not fun.
Quoting stillwaiting:
ULL forming in the GOM now:Link


Sometimes an ULL can help Vent a system and help it Organize......but, that is usually during the Heat of Season.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


No storm anymore, Adrian. :(



However, can that ''low'' provoke TS watches to be placed in SF by the NHC during that period of time?
Quoting Vortex95:
1145. Heh a 20 incher?

It was raining all through the night and a little in the morning and it's cold now and more clouds rolling in from the east
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Anyways the latest GFS model shows another system hitting Florida in about 200 hours from now, thoughts?


200 hours from now answers your own question I think lol
I learned it a couple of days ago, and I'M NOT JFV.
You're right, EX.
TS: should drop SSE and might be what the models have been picking up on in that area,IMO this would be the feature to watch as it is forcast to be in our region for atleast the next 120hrs.....
1164. Ossqss
An alternate discussion from this morning on the system and the european model referenced in it with a loop button upper right.

Link

Link
Quoting WeatherStudent:
I learned it a couple of days ago, and I'M NOT JFV.


Haven't been here for more than a couple days but you post just like him. Just sayin...
Quoting WeatherStudent:
I learned it a couple of days ago, and I'M NOT JFV.



from who???,you just sound alot like him..sir and all..
1167. Drakoen
1168. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:



how do you know his name if your new here JFV????


Ding-ding-ding!!!!!!

1169. Patrap
Any talk or Quoting of a JFV sighting or other monomania will be flagged and action requested ASAP.

Grow up or MOVE on.

Millions see here daily and your BS is embarrassing all of us.
ok back to MET 101... A tropical system needs a upper level high to for its exhaust...not a upper level low.... sheer over 15kt isnt good for a tropical system unless its moving in the same direction as the sheer..and then its only slightly better.

If this system forms...it will be around Cuba or near the bahamas on monday into monday night..and it wont be more than subtropical @ best until the sheer relaxes and a ridge develops..otherwise it needs a warm core. ULL=cold core!
1172. IKE
Raining at my house right now. Got through mowing my yard just in time.

Rain and 77 degrees.
1173. Patrap
Guess I should have that morning med now..LOL
1174. Patrap
Got it in under the wire eh IKE...?
Have daughters Graduation today at 3 here.
1175. IKE
Quoting Wundermet:
12Z NAM


Are you new?

I think I know you.
1176. Drakoen
I disagree with the NHC's placement of the surface trough. The quicksat reveals it may be further east closer to 76W.Link
Quoting Patrap:
Any talk or Quoting of a JFV sighting or other monomania will be flagged and action requested ASAP.

Grow up or MOVE on.

Millions see here daily and your BS is embarrassing all of us.


I hope your not talking to me....
1178. Patrap
GOM WV Still

Quoting IKE:


Are you new?

I think I know you.


Yes, Futuremet

I will not lie
12z NAM is more slow on movement,its almost stationary in the GOM.

Link
Wind Forecast

Good morning everyone. Good to see you again Extreme, how are you?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Good morning everyone. Good to see you again Extreme, how are you?



Hey, I'm doing good. Good to see you still around.
Quoting scottsvb:
ok back to MET 101... A tropical system needs a upper level high to for its exhaust...not a upper level low.... sheer over 15kt isnt good for a tropical system unless its moving in the same direction as the sheer..and then its only slightly better.

If this system forms...it will be around Cuba or near the bahamas on monday into monday night..and it wont be more than subtropical @ best until the sheer relaxes and a ridge develops..otherwise it needs a warm core. ULL=cold core!


That's if it's under the ull. If the ull forms in the gulf and splits the subtropical jet (which ull's do if the cut off from the jet. There is almost always and area of lower shear somewhere east of a ull while higher shear everywhere else.) Then the storm can form tropically.
Quoting stillwaiting:


I hope your not talking to me....


You tell em, Pat.
1187. IKE
Quoting Wundermet:


Yes, Futuremet

I will not lie


I thought so. I wasn't going to say for fear of you know what.....

Funny how you can tell who someone is by their way of typing....
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO NO NO.....we are all just going to get a ton of rain which we all need......

OH here is some Troll Juice Recipes that you all might need today....LOL

pisst, just don't tell okeechobee core of engineers, we don't need them to start letting the water out of the lake again, LOL
welcome back aboard wondermet,great to hear your opinions again!!!!
more rain moving in soon
1191. IKE
OMG this blog.
I think a LLC is trying to form, im seeing one at about 16 and 76
1195. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z NAM is more slow on movement,its almost stationary in the GOM.

Link


Looks like it's going to do a loop-de-loop and then head back north.
Quoting IKE:
OMG this blog.


And the season hasn't even started yet lol
1197. Drakoen
At least we have something to look at on satellite.
Quoting IKE:


I thought so. I wasn't going to say for fear of you know what.....

Funny how you can tell who someone is by their way of typing....


Okay, let us abandon this subject, it will only cause a ruckus
Quoting WeatherStudent:



However, can that ''low'' provoke TS watches to be placed in SF by the NHC during that period of time?


(NO) Winds may gust in the 40-50 mph range offshore once this things makes it into the gulf when it may have the chance to spin up.The combination of tight pressure gradient between the low pressure system and the high will produce windy conditions across southeast florida with possible periods of heavy rainfall. Better get use to this as we are just embarking on the rainy season so daily thunderstorms are a way of life mon-sunday for the next few months.
Quoting canesrule1:
I think a LLC is trying to form, im seeing one at about 16 and 76

not impossible,but close to it...sorry,
Latest HWO from Miami.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOPING. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST AND STORMIEST PERIOD WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL...EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING.

there's a flash flood watch up for me
1203. Patrap
All those GFS solutions seem to want to hang near The N GOM or in it proper.

Ike you have Cane scent on ya ?
I would guess any "spin" anyone see's is in the mid levels....
1205. Drakoen
The Cuban radar is showing some circulation just SE of Jamaica.
AOI
TRACK MARK
17.7N/75.5W
Quoting hurricane23:


(NO) Winds may gust in the 40-50 mph range offshore once this things makes it into the gulf when it may have the chance to spin up.The combination of tight pressure gradient between the low pressure system and the high will produce windy conditions across southeast florida with possible periods of heavy rainfall. Better get use to this as we are just embarking on the rainy season so daily thunderstorms are a way of life mon-sunday for the next few months.


Gotcha, but can't winds of that magnitude at least cause us some inconviences down here?
I just want some rain here in miami, No tropical development wanted
I'm kinda curious to see how this season compares to last season. I know each season is unique but last year we had so many oddities...was some fascinating stuff.
Looks like rainy season has begun at my house- Link

I imagine this is only the beginning.

For those of you that live in South Florida, WPBT PBS 2 will have "Anatomy of a Hurricane" from 11:30 am to 12:00 pm. Looks like they hung out at the National Hurricane Center during the 04 season.
1211. Patrap
Cuban Radar,Pilón

1206

Keeper, reduce the size...
Quoting canesrule1:
I think a LLC is trying to form, im seeing one at about 16 and 76

I see it too on the Caribbean visible
Quoting Patrap:
Any talk or Quoting of a JFV sighting or other monomania will be flagged and action requested ASAP.

Grow up or MOVE on.

Millions see here daily and your BS is embarrassing all of us.


Pat i agree....Ya he can get under your skin but, overall he's a great young man...If he does log on and ask stupid and silly questions....SO FREAKING WHAT...Heck we all do. Everyone just needs to chill and stop the talk. If you don't like what he says....grow up and ignor it......Let's move on!
Off subject but.
Atlantis is doing another EVA on the Hubble right now, if anyone wants to check it out go to the NASA website. Pretty amazing pictures from the astronauts helment cams and the shuttles images of Earth. They should fly over the blob in the Caribbean in a few ours :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
TRACK MARK
17.7N/75.5W


What's that? It looks like a meteorological hoover craft.
1217. Drakoen
I'm looking at this radar
1218. Patrap
Keeper,those Plymouth B&W images are like,er..strrrrrrrrrrrretched all the time or distorted

There are many better sites for them. Plus the Land mass outlines are grossly simplified.
1219. Patrap
That Hora View must be better located Drak,,lotsa Mts to disrupt the other.
Ok so can someone clarify this for me. I always thought that we were waiting for a low to cut off from the front approaching the southeastern united states to develop into the potential system with the aid of the trof south of Cuba. However, by the looks of the things now its this trof itself thats going to develop with the aid of the front reducing shear, correct?
Quoting Drakoen:
The Cuban radar is showing some circulation just SE of Jamaica.


as the same for visible imagery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
TRACK MARK
17.7N/75.5W

WOW! that's right off of the coast of where I am I'm in Jamaica and many clouds are coming in fast from the east
80% rain chance over nxt two days is cause for minor concern on street flooding. Most will minor but some in low lying areas of S Fla could cause issues. Remember if you see a street that is mostly flooded and cannot judge the depth with confidence or if your vehicle is too low turn back.
Flood watches may be posted if needed tommorow. Do not panic they most likely would a precautionary.
1224. Patrap
New ENTRY up..abandon this one..LOL
not much to see in the jamaican radar
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Ok so can someone clarify this for me. I always thought that we were waiting for a low to cut off from the front approaching the southeastern united states to develop into the potential system with the aid of the trof south of Cuba. However, by the looks of the things now its this trof itself thats going to develop with the aid of the front reducing shear, correct?


Correct, because as you could clearly see, the through is already embedded onto the actual ball of convection, currently situated southeast of Jamaica.
I see a low, in the visible caribbean satellite
Quoting canesrule1:
I see a low, in the visible caribbean satellite


May you post the link for that, please?
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Looks like rainy season has begun at my house- Link

I imagine this is only the beginning.

For those of you that live in South Florida, WPBT PBS 2 will have "Anatomy of a Hurricane" from 11:30 am to 12:00 pm. Looks like they hung out at the National Hurricane Center during the 04 season.


Hey WPM i put together a florida radar page which includes news radars from CBS 12 StormTrac Doppler Radar and NBC6 from down here feel free to use.I just added a few weeks back the new Intellicast Hi-Res Interactive Radar.One of my favorites is COD and RAP.
Does someone have a link to GFS shear forecast maps? or any other shear forecast models?
Circulation just east of Jamaica is in the mid-levels!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


May you post the link for that, please?

Its around 16 and 78
Quoting WeatherStudent:


May you post the link for that, please?
winds are at tropical depression status at the wave in the caribbean i am just waiting for the circulation to go from the mid levels to the low levels. We will have an invest 90L soon, in the next hours.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

WOW! that's right off of the coast of where I am I'm in Jamaica and many clouds are coming in fast from the east



see anything from the west yet???or south???,I just see a influx of wx surging from the SE towards cuba and than towards FL as a ULL strengthens in the eastern GOM...that radar image is decieving,anything at all would be in the mid levels,IMO and would dissapate quickly...
I didn't think we'd be tracking mid-level swirls until there was something in the GOM...
.