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Still Too Soon to Write Off Struggling 99L

By: Bob Henson 3:42 PM GMT on August 26, 2016

After vexing and perplexing forecasters and the public for days, the strong tropical wave dubbed Invest 99L is attempting once more to organize itself. The elongated circulation associated with 99L extends from the far southeastern Bahama Islands across eastern Cuba to just west of Jamaica. As of early Friday, 99L had failed to develop a coherent circulation, with a low-level center devoid of showers and thunderstorms (convection) spinning hundreds of miles north of intense convection over parts of Hispaniola and Jamaica. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission that had been scheduled for Friday morning was cancelled.

The main reason for 99L’s failure to develop has been unexpectedly strong vertical wind shear, as evident in the high-level cirrus blowing northward off the tops of thunderstorms. This wind shear has injected relatively dry air into the wave while keeping a consolidated center from forming. However, 99L is now moving into a region of much lower wind shear for the next couple of days, as indicated by Friday morning (12Z) data from the SHIPS statistical model. A new burst of convection appeared on Friday morning near the low-level circulation between far eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahama Islands (see Figure 1). If this were to persist, it could make the beginning of a long-awaited growth phase for 99L. The National Hurricane Center reduced the 2-day odds that 99L would become a tropical depression to 20% in its 8 AM Tropical Weather Update. I wouldn’t be surprised to see those odds going back up at 2 pm if the convection continues to blossom near 99L’s center. In order to develop further, 99L will need to fend off dry air that continues to influence its thunderstorm activity (see Figure 2).


Figure 1. Infrared image of Invest 99L as of 1415Z (10:15 am EDT) Friday, August 26, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of 99L taken at 11:08 am EDT August 26, 2016. A surface circulation center was trying to form over the central Bahamas. Heavy thunderstorms were building along the southeast side of the center, but were ingesting dry mid-level air. This dry air is heavier than moist air, and creates strong downdrafts within its thunderstorms that are robbing 99L of moisture. When these downdraft hit the ocean, they spread out horizontally, creating an arc-shaped band of surface cumulus clouds showing the outflow boundary of the air from the downdraft. As 99L continues to struggle with dry air, expect to see more of these arc-shaped outflow boundaries.

A victory for the GFS--but it’s too soon to write off 99L
In the latest iteration of the “ECMWF vs. GFS” battle that has raged for years, the GFS appears to have won the latest round. Several of our most reliable models, including the ECMWF and UKMET, developed 99L into a tropical storm by today, while the GFS remained insistent that no major development would occur. Kudos to the GFS for this one!

Even the more gung-ho runs of the ECMWF and UKMET earlier this week generally intensified 99L at a fairly modest pace for the period from Wednesday through Friday, with more rapid strengthening toward this weekend. Although it is not well organized enough to take full advantage of the situation, 99L is now entering a region of light to moderate wind shear (5 - 15 knots) and very warm sea-surface temperatures (29.5 - 30°C or 85 - 86°F), which would allow a more organized system to intensify. Though the odds of any rapid development are fairly low, it would be prudent to monitor Friday’s convective blow-up and make sure that 99L has no surprises up its sleeve.

Outlook for 99L this weekend and beyond
The 00Z Friday ensemble of the GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement that 99L will continue moving west-northwest on a track that would put it somewhere in or near the Florida Keys around Sunday. None of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members bring 99L up to tropical storm strength before that point, while the HWRF--overall the best-performing intensity model of recent years--is an outlier, calling for 99L to reach tropical storm strength by Sunday. If 99L does organize today, we'll be looking closely at the next couple of rounds of models to see if any major changes occur. In any event, this morning’s burst of convection reminds us that 99L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to southern Florida over the weekend.

There remains plenty of uncertainty over 99L’s future beyond the weekend. The operational GFS and ECMWF model runs from 0Z Friday take 99L northward through the eastern Gulf and into the upper Gulf Coast of Florida. A minority of GFS ensemble members bring 99L further west, while the four ECMWF ensemble members that make up the “high probability cluster” (those that have performed the best on 99L over the last 24 hours) keep the system moving northward, very close to Florida’s west coast, as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The HWRF and UKMET are more aggressive on intensifying 99L further west in the open Gulf, where there would be less interaction with land. We can expect models to get a better handle on 99L if and when it develops a coherent circulation.

The bottom line: 99L remains a system well worth monitoring as it makes its way into south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 3. Members of the GFS ensemble modeling system (GEFS) are in close agreement that 99L will end up in or near the Florida Straits, but there is still wide disagreement on its path beyond that point later next week. These paths were generated at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Friday, August 26, 2016, based on data from the 06Z Friday model runs.

A pair of East Pacific systems worth watching
Next week may be active in the East and Central Pacific, as two systems--Tropical Storm Lester and Invest 98E--chug westward on trajectories that could put them in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late next week or beyond. Already well-organized, Lester is packing top sustained winds of 60 mph. Wind shear is injecting some dry air into Lester, but that should abate over the weekend, allowing Lester to become a hurricane as it continues on a nearly due-west path as projected by the 5:00 am EDT outlook from NHC. Further to the west, 98E is off to a healthy start, with a large and growing shield of convection. NHC gives 98E an 80% chance of development by Sunday, and models are in broad agreement that it will become Tropical Storm Madeline in the next several days. 98E will have a northward component to its motion at first, but in the longer range it should end up heading westward a few hundred miles ahead of Lester, likely peaking below hurricane strength.


Figure 4. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Lester produced with data from NASA’s MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) as of 0915Z (5:15 am EDT) Friday, August 26, 2016. Image credit: CSU/RAMMB/CIRA.

A couple of factors are making 98L and Lester worth keeping an eye on:

--Although SSTs are cooler than average near the equator (with a borderline La Niña attempting to develop) and in the subtropics around 30°N, sandwiched in between is a region of SSTs that are 0.5°C to 1.0°C above average in the latitude belt around 15-20°N, which includes Hawaii. This would allow a westward-moving system approaching Hawaii to remain over waters near or just above 26°C (79°F), a standard benchmark for supporting tropical development.

--A very strong upper-level ridge in the Northeast Pacific should keep Lester and 98E from heading very far northwest or recurving northeast in the common fashion of East Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes. Such paths typically sound the death knell for these cyclones, as they end up over the cool waters north of 20°N.

Unusually high SSTs associated with El Niño and long-term warming have given Hawaii more than its historical share of tropical storm action in recent years. Two tropical cyclones moving from east to west became the first since Hawaii's statehood (1959] to make landfall in the Big Island: Tropical Storm Iselle (August 2014) and Tropical Storm Darby (July 2016). (In addition, an unnamed tropical storm hit the Big Island in 1958.) We have plenty of time to monitor both 98E and Lester. If 98E does become Madeline, it will keep us well ahead of schedule for East Pacific named storms. For the period 1971-2009, the average formation date of the “M” storm was September 28.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next update late Friday afternoon.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Long-range projected tracks for Invest 98E (EP98) and Tropical Storm Lester, produced by the 20 members of the GFS ensemble modeling system (GEFS) as of 00Z Friday, August 26, 2016. Any encounter with the Hawaiian Islands would be no sooner than Wednesday, August 31, and the systems would most likely be at tropical storm strength at best. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link

good vorticity between Cayman and Jamaica. I know the models don't do anything with it but worth a look. Speed up the loop and zoom in on Jamaica to see.
Quoting 475. StormTrackerScott:

45 to 55knt wind barbs on the Eastside of this circulation yet no recon with what appears to be a closed circulation. Just ridiculous.!


and there wont be any recon today has it been cancel this AM
Quoting 477. DelawareJack:

Finally, some calm and blessedly accurate and NON-HYPED comments from M. Suddeth ( Thank you Mark! )

[snipped numerous comments describing 99L]

.... Instead, the Euro now has weak energy bringing possible heavy rain to portions of Florida. No hurricane in to Louisiana or elsewhere, just a strung out mess. Odds of development over the next five days are down to 60%. Strong wind has all but beat the system in to oblivion.

There is virtually no convection or thunderstorm activity with it and the USAF Hurricane Hunter crew has been grounded since there’s nothing there to investigate.

Mark's cogent comments in their entirety >> http://hurricanetrack.com/
I love this bolded part .... sure hope he's right, since SE Bahamas might get flooded out again .... by the non-existent convection....
Quoting 480. Ricki13th:

New vort map has move north away from Cuba in the last 3 hours

Old:


New:



Looking a bit deeper too.

Made me go look at https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-81.04,21.61,3000 and surface looks much better than yesterday. Mid and upper levels aren't on spot though still.



Bonnie over S.FL could be similar to what happens here, maybe?
This storm makes me want chocolate.

Or maybe I just want chocolate. Either way I am an off to the store.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 465. TheInsomniac4:



Government weather machine?


I have no 1st amendment rights as I am under a gag order. LOL
Quoting 501. Saltydogbwi1:

Link

good vorticity between Cayman and Jamaica. I know the models don't do anything with it but worth a look. Speed up the loop and zoom in on Jamaica to see.
I been looking at that this p.m ... some convection is popping with it, too.

Dr Masters, I'd love to see a blog detailing how computer models work. I've had questions piling up throughout the years. If anyone has any answers, let me know!

Do models have any run to run adjustments? For example, if the GFS continually shows a storm moving too far south, is it aware of its bias and try to adjust accordingly?

Do models get most of their info directly from satellites, or is skew t data added on a twice a day basis?

Is there any model to model communication?

Thanks.
Quoting 494. StormTrackerScott:

I bet we have a hurricane by tomorrow night. Nice outflow building over 99L. Seems to be hitting the gas pedal today. A track up thru the FL Keys then north of Tampa as a CAT. 2 or 3 at landfall near Cedar Key you watch!

I do think a Cat 1 is likely over S FL and the Keys late Sunday or Monday.




Not likely.

There's still too much working against it. It's also not a closed low yet.
514. Ed22
Quoting 460. LafLA:



Get your glasses fixed bro...
It looks very well closed to me, NHC is inconsistent in their statement at 1pm; tonight is going to be game changer for 99L.
Quoting 508. BahaHurican:

I been looking at that this p.m ... some convection is popping with it, too.




Link
Quoting 508. BahaHurican:

I been looking at that this p.m ... some convection is popping with it, too.




Link

99L split in 2 in 1 vort south of Grand Cayman, the other in the SE Bahamas, one south of Grand Cayman appears to be closed
NDBC
Location: 26.007N 85.648W--208 nautical miles west of Naples Florida...


Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: NW (310°) at 1.9 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Average Wave Period: 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Dew Point: 71.6 F
Water Temperature: 85.6 F
Quoting 495. BTRsquatter:



I was so skeptical of the wunderground show on TWC but I must say I was proven wrong. Mike Bettes truly is a big weather nerd and it shows. Not to mention he survived the tornado flipping his car, El rino tornado if I'm not mistaken. They put on an interesting 2 hours and don't unnecessarily 'hype' things too much. And I'll just go ahead and say it, Dillingham is hot and also nerdy, hope that doesn't shut down this G rated blog.
I can't comment on the hot part, but I caught the show for the first time a couple of weeks ago and was impressed. They seem to keep it technical enough to keep the nerd end of the audience interested while making it user-friendly enough for general audiences to stay involved.
And as you say, Bettes comes across as if he has been freed from forced cooldom ....
519. A4Guy
Rotation doesn't seem as robust and obvious as it did this morning.
Quoting 514. Ed22:

It looks very well closed to me, NHC is inconsistent in their statement at 1pm; tonight is going to be game changer for 99L.




That is the west side of the storm. Not closed yet. It is trying to get there but will take time.
But nothing changed from earlier (as of 2:00 pm) as to a tilted circulation with no stacking between the surface and mid level vort: and it is the ULL to the SE of the coc that is enhancing the convection we were seeing earlier today: still waiting on d-max in the early am tomorrow for any significant changes IMHO.

Surface:


Mid:



Upper:
Quoting 440. GetReal:



Mean while in the GOM????


Rain????
Quoting 498. Michfan:





Here is the western side of that image. It is nowhere near closed off yet.
Thought I caught a few westerly flags on both edges of the images, myself.... but hard to tell.

I can tell you that winds at New Providence have definitely been from the NE ....
Quoting 471. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah "Bro" now don't you look funny!




Now, now guys keep it civil. Remember our motto here: "Bros before lows."
Quoting 522. LouisPasteur:
Rain????
I know of some people who don't need rain.
Quoting 496. tkeith:



I might just as well sell my golf clubs... "sigh"


T-Keith! How are you ? How did you do for the flood??
Quoting 491. Patrap: Is it going to rain on the way to the Dome tonight????


Quoting 524. SavannahStorm:



Now, now guys keep it civil. Remember our motto here: "Bros before lows."


heh.
Looks like 99L parked itself on Crooked and Acklins Island. Same place hit by Hurricane Joachin last year.
Hello everyone,

It's been ages since I've posted. 99L looks so much better today than it did yesterday! The moisture field still looks like it's slowly expanding. I definitely believe there's a good chance this will become a Tropical Storm before it strikes/swipes S. FL.
Quoting 522. LouisPasteur:



Rain????

The system in the Gulf is being watched by the NHC with a 10% chance of development it may seem small but you never know with these things...
Quoting 487. MrTornadochase:


Yes they've created giant fans to generate shear to rip apart and blow storms away from the US along with SAL creators to vaporize anything that wants to form. (JK)
I use a disintegrating gun myself
Hi everyone, I've been a lurker here since right before Rita tried to wipe us away.

I am leaving on a cruise out of Galveston, TX tomorrow returning on Thursday morning. How concerned should I be?? I live in Southwest Louisiana and my kids will be here with family.

Thanks for always providing such good information when things get stressful!
Quoting 532. MrTornadochase:


The system in the Gulf is being watched by the NHC with a 10% chance of development it may seem small but you never know with these things...
Hi everyone. I think it will limp by the Keys and then watch out when it gets to the Gulf. I think this is a Texas storm.
Quoting 529. unknowncomic:

Looks like 99L parked itself on Crooked and Acklins Island. Same place hit by Hurricane Joachin last year.

Right it looks almost like its stalled.
The current presentation in the Gulf, along with 99L supposedly inbound, just made things a lot more difficult to forecast over the weekend: I give up..................................





Bring her who DAT brella.

The Superdome has a new look inside with huge HD screens in each end zone.

New lighting...and lots more

Saints unveil new high-definition end zone boards, other Superdome renovations

August 24, 2016 - 12:02 PM CDT
Posted by: Sabrina Trahan
Category: General, Saints, Saints Hall Of Fame
Quoting 516. stormpetrol:



Link

99L split in 2 in 1 vort south of Grand Cayman, the other in the SE Bahamas, one south of Grand Cayman appears to be closed


The difference between the Bahamas Vorticity and the Western Caribbean one is that the Bahamas one has vorticity relatively close to it in the mid and upper levels whereas the Caribbean has none only really low level spin.
540. OKsky
Quoting 533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I use a disintegrating gun myself



Did you buy that from PedleyCA?
Quoting 521. weathermanwannabe:

But nothing changed from earlier (as of 2:00 pm) as to a tilted circulation with no stacking between the surface and mid level vort: and it is the ULL to the SE of the coc that is enhancing the convection we were seeing earlier today: still waiting on d-max in the early am tomorrow for any significant changes IMHO.

Surface:


Mid:



Upper:



Ah that's good to see, shows about the same as the nullschool map, nice to see the maps confirming each other!
Quoting 540. OKsky:



Did you buy that from PedleyCA?
lol
Does 99 still have a "swirl" somewhere? I cant find one with visible sat image.
Is there any chance that the Mid Level Center will become the more dominant center and works it's way to the surface? It looks like the Mid Level is just to the north of Haiti, and the Low Level circulation is around Long Island/Long Cay. It just seems like the Low Level circulation dissolved, so I'm wondering where the next one might form.
Quoting 534. rlm252003:

Hi everyone, I've been a lurker here since right before Rita tried to wipe us away.

I am leaving on a cruise out of Galveston, TX tomorrow returning on Thursday morning. How concerned should I be?? I live in Southwest Louisiana and my kids will be here with family.

Thanks for always providing such good information when things get stressful!


Depends on where you're going
Quoting 538. Patrap:

Bring her who DAT brella.

The Superdome has a new look inside with huge HD screens in each end zone.

New lighting...and lots more

Saints unveil new high-definition end zone boards, other Superdome renovations

August 24, 2016 - 12:02 PM CDT
Posted by: Sabrina Trahan
Category: General, Saints, Saints Hall Of Fame


Who Dat baby!
We ready Pat!
and we not scared of no rain or no steeler!
DMAX tonight will definitely be interesting to see how 99L does. It's worth noting that the 12z GFS run (not sure if it was mentioned earlier) appeared to develop 99L into a tropical depression the NE GOM:

Anyway, Gaston looks to be struggling this afternoon with wind shear and has a rather asymmetric appearance.
548. hamla
Fats
let the four winds blow from the east to the west
Quoting 529. unknowncomic:

Looks like 99L parked itself on Crooked and Acklins Island. Same place hit by Hurricane Joachin last year.


If this is the case, then I believe it gives itself a better chance to consolidate. It's still disorganized, but far better than 24 hrs ago, but not too horrible considering it is Dmin.
Quoting 540. OKsky:



Did you buy that from PedleyCA?
I was about to say something like that, lol.
Better from 99L. Deadmans cay site reporting winds due NorthEast and a pressure of 1008 mbs.
Wind shear isn't and shouldn't be much of an issue for 99L as it is falling over the system and is now in the 10-15kt range over most of it:



The main issue is the dry air to the west that's been a consistent feature. With wind shear now at reasonable levels, it should be able to mix out the dry air with all the convection it's firing, particularly tonight when Dmax occurs.

Wishcasters: 99L has a closed low! It should be classified!
Everyone Else: What evidence do you have that the surface circulation has closed?
Wishcasters: Well I squinted really really hard, pressed my nose against my computer screen, and I saw it on the satellite loop.
Quoting 545. JrWeathermanFL:



Depends on where you're going



We are going to Cozumel and Progreso.
Looking at the recent ASCAT pass it appears as if 99L has winds back close to TS force, with a couple 30 kt vectors showing up. This is above the ATCF estimate of 25 kt.
Quoting 554. pipelines:

Wishcasters: 99L has a closed low! It should be classified!
Everyone Else: What evidence do you have that the surface circulation has closed?
Wishcasters: Well I squinted really really hard, pressed my nose against my computer screen, and I saw it on the satellite loop.

Me: I about dont care if it is a one or five...let's just get it over with. :) Not scared :)
In terms of Gaston, the wind shear was forecast and it should subside this evening/overnight as Gaston moves into a lower shear environment (shear is falling as well):





Gaston should be back to hurricane strength later tomorrow and perhaps will undergo a period of significant intensification into our first major by late sunday/early monday (moving into waters of 28C+ with low wind shear).
Quoting 553. Envoirment:

Wind shear isn't and shouldn't be much of an issue for 99L as it is falling over the system and is now in the 10-15kt range over most of it:



The main issue is the dry air to the west that's been a consistent feature. With wind shear now at reasonable levels, it should be able to mix out the dry air with all the convection it's firing, particularly tonight when Dmax occurs.




Looks like a small, weak upper low just east of Eluthera and Cat Island. Imparting a bit of shear still. But appears to be some upper divergence as well, which is keeping the storms going a bit.
Hi Gang,

Why does the HRWF model show 99L getting to Cat 4 and hitting Near Destin, FL, while the others indicate at worst a Cat 1? Just curious as to what makes the HRWF different then the rest.
Quoting 552. Heresince2005:

Better from 99L. Deadmans cay site reporting winds due NorthEast and a pressure of 1008 mbs.
LOL, what a name for an island. I wonder if there is treasure there or maybe they are skulls there from old pirates.
Ok I'm not saying this is for sure stalled, but I ran the visible back 7 hours and I see little to no movement. Anyone else picking up on that?
Meanwhile 4+" in the bucket at KEYW since Wednesday, thumping again out there right now. It was just about this time in 2005 we got 10" in 12 hours from Katrina.
It's so weird how the models have completely flip flopped on 99L. Last week, it was the GFS showing development and the EURO showed nothing. Then both models showed nothing. Then, it flipped to the GFS showing nothing and the EURO showing a powerful major. Then both models showed nothing. Now, the GFS is back on board showing a TD out of 99L in the NE GOM and the EURO is showing nothing...what a ride it has been with 99L, which has been an invest for 8 days now.
I may just be bleary-eyed from looking at loops all day (sorry, boss), but the last few frames of the water vapor loop (really zoomed in) seem to show a stationary spin at about 23.8N, 76.2W.
Still looks like 99L is getting tops blown off from the SW
Quoting 561. GTstormChaserCaleb:

LOL, what a name for an island. I wonder if there is treasure there or maybe they are skulls there from old pirates.
Deadman's Cay is on Long Island.... which is full of names like Hard Bargain, Salt Pond etc....
Quoting 562. charlottefl:

Ok I'm not saying this is for sure stalled, but I ran the visible back 7 hours and I see little to no movement. Anyone else picking up on that?


If you look at the visible you see the spin still moving WNW leaving the thunderstorms behind.
Looking better!
Link
US National Weather Service Lake Charles Louisiana

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles is still monitoring Invest 99L in the Bahamas. According to NHC, this system has a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through this weekend while it is in the Bahamas, but a medium (60%) chance of development when it enters the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Meanwhile an area of disturbed weather off the Louisiana coast has a low (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, as it moves to the west and reaches the Texas coast this weekend. This system will bring the potential for heavy rains (2 to 4 inches) and higher tides for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor of southeast Texas and southwest and south central Louisiana. If heavy rain moves into areas that are still recovering from the flood of two weekends ago, additional flooding will be possible.

Looks like a fully open wave now.
Albert town has winds from SE and similar pressure
One day STS is going to accidentally be right and we're never gonna hear the end of it, well at least the ones who don't have him on ignore.
Quoting 506. Qazulight:

This storm makes me want chocolate.

Or maybe I just want chocolate. Either way I am an off to the store.

Cheers
Qazulight
+100!
Quoting 565. CBJeff:

I may just be bleary-eyed from looking at loops all day (sorry, boss), but the last few frames of the water vapor loop (really zoomed in) seem to show a stationary spin at about 23.8N, 76.2W.


I don't see it on this Satellite Loop
Quoting 572. Heresince2005:

Albert town has winds from SE and similar pressure
Hmmm. Albert Town is on Long Cay, which is to the SE of Long Island, near Crooked Island. Used to be the post office for the archipelago 110 years ago.
stormtop shot blanks on a bunch of systems until the character had a royal flush with katrina. scott thanks for your forecast.
I just looked at the close-up RAMMB loop on 91L; the naked circulation visible earlier today outrunning the earlier convective action is gone; not sure that it is "stalled" per se..........The potential coc could have fallen apart or trying to reform underneath the new convective burst to the SE......................If the pressures can't get back down due to a nice convective burst again overnight, I don't know what to tell you...................Anyone's guess is welcome:











Looks like 98E should be declared Madeline.
Could the disturbed thing in the gulf now absorb some of the fuel that 99L would use to strengthen? I guess Im thinking in terms of water temperatures.
The smartest thing 99L has done since coming off Africa was to put the brakes on and put it in park. Now it is just sitting there probably waiting for the mid level vort to stack up. I expect some new convection to fire further east near the Mid level and get pulled east to the low level vort, Just my take. Tonight is going to be interesting.
Quoting 554. pipelines:

Wishcasters: 99L has a closed low! It should be classified!
Everyone Else: What evidence do you have that the surface circulation has closed?
Wishcasters: Well I squinted really really hard, pressed my nose against my computer screen, and I saw it on the satellite loop.


That's far more effective than my just wanting it to be there, so it is strategy.
18Z nam still going into SFL

Cat 2 Lionrock southeast of Japan.
Quoting 581. BayFog:



Looks like 98E should be declared Madeline.

They just declared it 14 E, but I think it's jumped to TS status already.
Quoting 580. weathermanwannabe:

I just looked at the close-up RAMMB loop on 91L; the naked circulation visible earlier today outrunning the earlier convective action is gone; not sure that it is "stalled" per se..........The potential coc could have fallen apart or trying to reform underneath the new convective burst to the SE......................If the pressures can't get back down due to a nice convective burst again overnight, I don't know what to tell you...................Anyone's guess is welcome:






I think you are right. The circulation swirl has dissipated, but I do think that a new circulation may be trying to form just to the North of Haiti. If you look at the low level clouds, there appears to be some spin there.
I've been working on some tongue-in-cheek rules for the blog...let me know what y'all think :P

1. You are not smarter than the NHC.
2. Don't listen to the models more than 7 days out.
3. The storm will almost never be as strong as the CMC says.
4. Your eyes are tricking you - the tropical system is likely not stationary. It's also probably not randomly changing directions toward your house in between NHC updates.
5. Respect the old people on here.
6. Just because one model points a storm at your hometown doesn't mean it's heading for your hometown.
7. Eat crow when you're wrong and treat it as a learning opportunity.
8. Don't post 1000 comments about how everyone is blind and can't see the obvious _________ (pick one: closed circulation/open wave, strengthening/weakening, track change, eye relocation, etc)
9. Do show off your F9 skills and be the first person to post an update by the NHC or Levi.
10. Support disaster relief efforts by donating to Portlight.

Quoting 459. wunderkidcayman:



the spin hit long island Bahamas and dissipated

S like between Cuba and Haiti and Turks and Caicos

it should continue W into Cuba



only you mate

Actually you and another Cayman mate both said to either watch the Jamaica area or the spin was off of Jamiaca...shall we go back and "pull the video"?


Plenty of convection, but fortunately no evidence of organization.
593. Tcwx2
Incredible! The EURO shows Gaston still hanging around at day 10! But the GFS has it gone by then. Can't you two agree for once!
This is a good plausible explanation for the current look of 91; the sudden outburst of storms in the E-Pac has now put the brakes on any development in the Atlantic basin for the next 10 days due the inverse relationship...................................... :)




Combined image of all basins




14-E (center) and Lester (right), both on a possible course to Hawaii.
It hasn't stalled. A lot of you are trying to track a "center" that does not truly exist. It is still a wave and it is expected to slow way down over the next 24-48 hours. There is really nothing other than rain to track or investigate until it starts to enter the Gulf. Then things will get interesting and once a true center is formed, models will get a better grip on track and intensity.
Quoting 587. BayFog:


Cat 2 Lionrock southeast of Japan.


Looks like it went under an EWRC and allowed dry air into the circulation. Should mix it out and strengthen into a very powerful storm. The GFS doesn't bring it into Japan anymore - it has it stalling before being taken out to sea. The Euro is still showing it making a sharp turn into Japan as a major though. Fingers crossed the GFS wins out.

Quoting 596. HaboobsRsweet:

It hasn't stalled. A lot of you are trying to track a "center" that does not truly exist. It is still a wave and it is expected to slow way down over the next 24-48 hours. There is really nothing other than rain to track or investigate until it starts to enter the Gulf. Then things will get interesting and once a true center is formed, models will get a better grip on track and intensity.

Yes, definitely, although it does still have circulation https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-72.93,23.50,2428/loc=-74.690, 22.318
To me this is complicated weather scenario,it seems that 99L is not moving?,plus the moisture field is expanding,almost touching Gaston to the East,this is huge circulation,hope that it's not more than a Tropical Depression or a low Tropical Storm when it moves over the Florida Key's or South Florida?.
Quoting 590. galvestonhurricane:

I've been working on some tongue-in-cheek rules for the blog...let me know what y'all think :P

1. You are not smarter than the NHC.
2. Don't listen to the models more than 7 days out.
3. The storm will almost never be as strong as the CMC says.
4. Your eyes are tricking you - the tropical system is likely not stationary. It's also probably not randomly changing directions toward your house in between NHC updates.
5. Respect the old people on here.
6. Just because one model points a storm at your hometown doesn't mean it's heading for your hometown.
7. Eat crow when you're wrong and treat it as a learning opportunity.
8. Don't post 1000 comments about how everyone is blind and can't see the obvious _________ (pick one: closed circulation/open wave, strengthening/weakening, track change, eye relocation, etc)
9. Do show off your F9 skills and be the first person to post an update by the NHC or Levi.
10. Support disaster relief efforts by donating to Portlight.



Rule #2 should be 5 days, heck maybe even 3 :p
Rule #3 - CMC isn't good at intensity and storms can often be a lot stronger than it shows - seen it lots of times in the Indian Ocean/WPAC and likely with Gaston too.

Nice set of rules though :)
Keep An Eye on the Area just east of grand Inagua in the Bahamas looks like a broad area of low pressure is trying to form . Tonight will be interesting ,but for sure 99L Has slowed down considerably .
603. IDTH
I'm back, I just had a great time with two of my friends that made my birthday incredibly enjoyable.

Anywho, enough about me! I see shear has completely let up around 99L and it seems to have stalled somewhat.



Regardless of conditions, it all comes down to whatever 99L can do in the next 30 or so hours.
Everyone, as usual, have a safe weather weekend; will check in over the weekend if 99L reaches TD status before Monday morning and if not, see Yall then; one big mess out there at the moment in the Caribbean, Western Atlantic, and Gulf.




Quoting 591. hunkerdown:



Actually you and another Cayman mate both said to either watch the Jamaica area or the spin was off of Jamiaca...shall we go back and "pull the video"?

Are you talking about the LLC down at the other end of 99L's Twave? We were looking at that earlier ....

As Salty was saying earlier, it doesn't seem likely to spin up into anything serious, and currently there's only vorticity at the low levels.... but it's an interesting artifact..... I'm curious to see if it continues building convection overnight.
Wow. These two guys hold themselves as champion predictors of long term global warming yet they can't predict a storm two days out.

Perfect example of how mother nature defies prediction.

BZ
607. IDTH

Quoting 602. Seflhurricane:

Keep An Eye on the Area just east of grand Inagua in the Bahamas looks like a broad area of low pressure is trying to form . Tonight will be interesting ,but for sure 99L Has slowed down considerably .


If that is the area to watch, it is already surrounded by deeper convection. Not sure if that broad low is surface-based or at 500mb though. Good eye tho.
610. IDTH
Vorticity increased since I left.



Current steering layer at 700-850 MB.



I'll be back later tonight.
Holy Hell 99L

You bore me.
Quoting 610. IDTH:

(...)

I'll be back later tonight.


I just couldn't resist...
Quoting 606. bjrabbit:

Wow. These two guys hold themselves as champion predictors of long term global warming yet they can't predict a storm two days out.

Perfect example of how mother nature defies prediction.

BZ
Thanks for your contribution to the conversation.
Quoting 573. ElConando:

One day STS is going to accidentally be right and we're never gonna hear the end of it, well at least the ones who don't have him on ignore.

Happened last year with his Super El Nino
Quoting 610. IDTH:

Vorticity increased since I left.



Current steering layer at 700-850 MB.



I'll be back later tonight.


OMG i finally found my satellite image of Elvis...but maybe not
Quoting 609. RockinghamRob:



Nobody cares about the Epac.
Speak for yourself.
618. IDTH
Last thing before I go again


Quoting 609. RockinghamRob:



Nobody cares about the Epac.
can ya say anything else
Invest 99L still looks like its fighting off shear, 10-15knots, and the system isn't moving much.
Gotta say.... this is the first time in a week that I've been able to keep up with the p.m. comment rate in the blog .... lol ...
Quoting 611. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

99L

I wonder is that is the LCC underneath the clouds toward the end of the loop??,if that is the case the LCC is wrapping thunderstorms.
Quoting 619. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

can ya say anything else


yeah. i make some sweet Gaston memes
Here is a possible #11, or substitute in your top 10

11. Not every storm is going to experience rapid intensification

Quoting 590. galvestonhurricane:

I've been working on some tongue-in-cheek rules for the blog...let me know what y'all think :P

1. You are not smarter than the NHC.
2. Don't listen to the models more than 7 days out.
3. The storm will almost never be as strong as the CMC says.
4. Your eyes are tricking you - the tropical system is likely not stationary. It's also probably not randomly changing directions toward your house in between NHC updates.
5. Respect the old people on here.
6. Just because one model points a storm at your hometown doesn't mean it's heading for your hometown.
7. Eat crow when you're wrong and treat it as a learning opportunity.
8. Don't post 1000 comments about how everyone is blind and can't see the obvious _________ (pick one: closed circulation/open wave, strengthening/weakening, track change, eye relocation, etc)
9. Do show off your F9 skills and be the first person to post an update by the NHC or Levi.
10. Support disaster relief efforts by donating to Portlight.

625. Wots
Hello, long time lurker here. If your eyes are, like mine, tired of watching elusive circulations around Crooked Island, there is a small one, closed, with west winds, and with some convection firing on its east side, around a hundred miles south of Bermuda. May be Fiona´s ghost?

Back to lurking....
Quoting 622. Hurricane1956:

I wonder is that the LCC underneath the clouds toward the end of the loop??,if that is the case the LCC is wrapping thunderstorms.


I agree.. that is the coc... look at it pull the storms around itself in the last frame
I saw a post a few pages back asking why the HWRF is blowing up 99L when none of the other models are. Eric Blake from the NHC explains it well under 120 characters.

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99L
If you believe the GFS it will be a week or next Friday before 99l system moves inland
Quoting 609. RockinghamRob:



Nobody cares about the Epac.


... I do?
Happy B-day! Looks like it has slowed down and convection looks good.

Quoting 603. IDTH:

I'm back, I just had a great time with two of my friends that made my birthday incredibly enjoyable.

Anywho, enough about me! I see shear has completely let up around 99L and it seems to have stalled somewhat.



Regardless of conditions, it all comes down to whatever 99L can do in the next 30 or so hours.
Snooze Fest.
Quoting 606. bjrabbit:

Wow. These two guys hold themselves as champion predictors of long term global warming yet they can't predict a storm two days out.

Perfect example of how mother nature defies prediction.

BZ

Except that AGW has been verified.
2016 is likely to be the warmest year on record with the other top ten currently being: 2015,2014,2010,2013,2005,2009,1998,2007,2005
Quoting 614. BahaHurican:

Thanks for your contribution to the conversation.


Glad to help.
Quoting 627. CybrTeddy:

I saw a post a few pages back asking why the HWRF is blowing up 99L when none of the other models are. Eric Blake from the NHC explains it well 120 characters.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99L


Quoting 627. CybrTeddy:

I saw a post a few pages back asking why the HWRF is blowing up 99L when none of the other models are. Eric Blake from the NHC explains it well 120 characters.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99L


I sure miss Neil Frank or Max Mayfield Richard Knabb reminds me of TWC oh I forgot where I am.
Quoting 630. CybrTeddy:



... I do?

me too!
637. OKsky
Quoting 606. bjrabbit:

Wow. These two guys hold themselves as champion predictors of long term global warming yet they can't predict a storm two days out.

Perfect example of how mother nature defies prediction.

BZ


........and here is a perfect of example of how ideology defies logic.
Just a quick question and it might be silly,if the 18 z comes out or fully loaded at 6pm central time (which it does),when does it come out in the eastern time or mountain time.?
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


Except that AGW has been verified with man dumping millions of tones of CO2 into the atmosphere every day.
2016 likely to be that warmest year on record with the top ten currently being: 2015,2014,2010,2013,2005,2009,1998,2007,2005


Very humorous for a Friday afternoon. Verified? Let's VERIFY how many plywood sheets have been sold from Lowes and Home Depot in south Florida and Key West from this bogus forecast.

Remember...they used to burn people at the stake who didn't believe the sun revolved around the earth...proven science in that day.
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


Except that AGW has been verified with man dumping millions of tones of CO2 into the atmosphere every day.
2016 likely to be that warmest year on record with the top ten currently being: 2015,2014,2010,2013,2005,2009,1998,2007,2005


Idk, i think the age of the dinosaurs was pretty hot. as was the medieval times. Just so happens that they decided to keep accurate records as we are coming out of the "Little Ice Age" that lasted from 1200-1800

My forecast video.
Quoting 639. bjrabbit:



.
now a days we just wack em with a hammer
Quoting 637. OKsky:



........and here is a perfect of example of how ideology defies logic.


I thought we were talking about science, not logic. Be consistent at least.
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


Except that AGW has been verified with man dumping millions of tones of CO2 into the atmosphere every day.
2016 likely to be that warmest year on record with the top ten currently being: 2015,2014,2010,2013,2005,2009,1998,2007,2005

I think the nuclear waste that has been pouring into Pacific Ocean from Fukushima should be the primary focus of any global warming discussions.
Quoting 640. RockinghamRob:



Idk, i think the age of the dinosaurs was pretty hot. as was the medieval times. Just so happens that they decided to keep accurate records as we are coming out of the "Little Ice Age" that lasted from 1200-1800


Yes RockinghamBob you are correct...they keep records of temperatures at airports that have the heat of adjacent runways to affect local temperatures.....mmm....why do storms blow up in the US to the EAST of cities...could it be the heat island effect?
Quoting 640. RockinghamRob:



Idk, i think the age of the dinosaurs was pretty hot. as was the medieval times. Just so happens that they decided to keep accurate records as we are coming out of the "Little Ice Age" that lasted from 1200-1800


The little ice age was hundreds of years ago. The dinosaurs existed MILLIONS of years ago. The comparison is completely invalid.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Both of the disagreeing models now agree on shooting possible Ian across the Atlantic straight west. Recurve denied.


Isn't that comforting :)
Quoting 640. RockinghamRob:



Idk, i think the age of the dinosaurs was pretty hot. as was the medieval times. Just so happens that they decided to keep accurate records as we are coming out of the "Little Ice Age" that lasted from 1200-1800


Go look up the ice core samples from Greenland then get back to me. We have verifiable data for quite a bit of the history of this planet. Just because some choose to cherry pick what they do and don't want to believe isn't science's problem.
Quoting 646. tigerdeF:



The little ice age was hundreds of years ago. The dinosaurs existed MILLIONS of years ago. The comparison is completely invalid.


Because it doesn't fit your neat little worldview.....this has nothing to do with science.
Quoting 645. bjrabbit:



Yes RockinghamBob you are correct...they keep records of temperatures at airports that have the heat of adjacent runways to affect local temperatures.....mmm....why do storms blow up in the US to the EAST of cities...could it be the heat island effect?


Exactly. If they took the temp readings in a grassy field outside the cities and away from black pavement and rooves, it would most likely result in average temperatures. For example, Boston has been 70 or higher at night since it holds on to the heat. Where I live in Stratham, NH. It gets down into the low sixties/high fifties most nights even after a 90 degree day
I hope 99L survives through the Bahamas, moves south through the FL straights, goes into the GOM and inexplicably moves south to the Bay of Campeche, builds enough convection to survive crossing Mexico until hitting the EPAC and getting renumbered... The blog would collectively implode and create a ripple in space time!

99L

Wow... looks like somebody whacked Gaston .... no wonder the NHC forecast is no longer calling for a major from it....
Quoting 649. Michfan:



Go look up the ice core samples from Greenland then get back to me. We have verifiable data for quite a bit of the history of this planet. Just because some choose to cherry pick what they do and don't want to believe isn't science's problem.


You mean the island that is buried in ice? You guys just don't get it. Man's activity is a pittance to mother nature...volcanism...the SUN...perturbations in the earth's orbit. I bring up on this blog that they used to burn people at the stake over the fact that they disagreed with the "proven science" of the day that the sun revolved around the earth...man has no clue what determines weather and climate and to believe so, is unbelievable arrogance...
Quoting 639. bjrabbit:



Very humorous for a Friday afternoon. Verified? Let's VERIFY how many plywood sheets have been sold from Lowes and Home Depot in south Florida and Key West from this bogus forecast.

Remember...they used to burn people at the stake who didn't believe the sun revolved around the earth...proven science in that day.


I don't think you understand the words "proven" at least in a scientific sense.

So let me get this right..... because science has been wrong in the past, all science now is false? So if the geocentric model of the universe was wrong, and I'm assuming you also think the heliocentric model of the universe is wrong, what is right? Clearly you know better than those "scientists", they're just wasting time studying and predicting climate. They should just ask you and save themselves all the trouble.

Quoting 652. RockinghamRob:



Exactly. If they took the temp readings in a grassy field outside the cities and away from black pavement and rooves, it would most likely result in average temperatures. For example, Boston has been 70 or higher at night since it holds on to the heat. Where I live in Stratham, NH. It gets down into the low sixties/high fifties most nights even after a 90 degree day


You da man!
Something about the satellite on 99L is telling me it's going to explode once D-Max comes around...



Might be the convective blowups all over the place around it.

If/When this thing gets stacked and gets going, I fear it's going to ramp up pretty quickly, don't keep your eye off of it, I made the mistake of doing that yesterday. She's a fighter and very persistant.
Quoting 652. RockinghamRob:



Exactly. If they took the temp readings in a grassy field outside the cities and away from black pavement and rooves, it would most likely result in average temperatures. For example, Boston has been 70 or higher at night since it holds on to the heat. Where I live in Stratham, NH. It gets down into the low sixties/high fifties most nights even after a 90 degree day


Rural and urban locations show the same trends. UHI is adjusted for. Thanks for playing. Back to 99L please.
Quoting 645. bjrabbit:



Yes RockinghamBob you are correct...they keep records of temperatures at airports that have the heat of adjacent runways to affect local temperatures.....mmm....why do storms blow up in the US to the EAST of cities...could it be the heat island effect?


For snowstorms a track to the east is almost always optimal and that's why blowups to the east get noticed while blowups to the west turn into warm events. Pressure gradients also tend to be stronger on the poleward and western quadrants of midlatitude cyclones and that's why storms to the east again get more notice.

Upper air temperatures above the influence of heat islands have also been increasing as have temperatures in remote unurbanized areas. Timeseries of SURFACE temperatures in urban and suburban locations do have a large heat island signal that has to be accounted for before conclusions of more widespread warming can be inferred from them. That's been done, the warming apart from heat island effects, remains, persists and increases over the past several decades. The Arctic is not heavily urbanized.. it's warming much faster than lower latitudes.
Quoting 656. pipelines:



I don't think you understand the words "proven" at least in a scientific sense.

So let me get this right..... because science has been wrong in the past, all science now is false? So if the geocentric model of the universe was wrong, and I'm assuming you also think the heliocentric model of the universe is wrong, what is right? Clearly you know better than those "scientists", they're just wasting time studying and predicting climate. They should just ask you and save themselves all the trouble.




They can't accurately predict a storm two days out...yet, I am supposed to buy in on their long range assumptions? These scientists have an agenda...they like to eat...and doing research on this nonsense brings them funding.
Quoting 659. Naga5000:



Rural and urban locations show the same trends. UHI is adjusted for. Thanks for playing. Back to 99L please.


Key word "Adjusted for" Who the f determines that? People dependent on funding so that they can feed their families? It's a hoax and 99L is an enigma...because science can't figure it out...hah!
Keeper, Can we please remove the purposeful derailment of the blog by climate disinformers?
Quoting 652. RockinghamRob:



Exactly. If they took the temp readings in a grassy field outside the cities and away from black pavement and rooves, it would most likely result in average temperatures. For example, Boston has been 70 or higher at night since it holds on to the heat. Where I live in Stratham, NH. It gets down into the low sixties/high fifties most nights even after a 90 degree day


You argument might have some merit if they were comparing temperatures in Boston to historical temperatures in Stratham, they don't. There are a number of weather stations that are in rural and city environments, they all show the same trend.
Not to mention most of those weather stations have been in the same city environment for 50+ years.

Try a different argument, this one is garbage.
Quoting 661. pipelines:



Just because you're too ignorant to understand the basic concepts of atmospheric dynamics, doesn't mean the rest of us are. If you were correct, than all weather predictions would be bunk, but they aren't.

Maybe you should live under a rock, leave the scary science stuff to the rest of us.


I thought personal attacks were not allowed on this blog...oh my mistake...I'm the enemy so you can say whatever.
Quoting 662. bjrabbit:



They can't accurately predict a storm two days out...yet, I am supposed to buy in on their long range assumptions? These scientists have an agenda...they like to eat...and doing research on this nonsense brings them funding.


Storms can be predicted two days out with high accuracy. Five days out? Not so much. But they know exactly why that is. There are too many variables at work, the system is inherently chaotic that far out. Science tell us this.

At that point you're better off relying on your Farmer's Almanac, instead of a model. And yet that is still scientific prediction. And we can always improve our models and push up against that boundary.

A century ago we'd get hit by a hurricane and have no idea it was even coming. Would you prefer that way of life? You can turn off your computer and sequester yourself in a cabin in the swamp if you don't trust any forecasting.
Quoting 662. bjrabbit:



They can't accurately predict a storm two days out...yet, I am supposed to buy in on their long range assumptions? These scientists have an agenda...they like to eat...and doing research on this nonsense brings them funding.


Large scale atmospheric trends are far easier to predict. That's why they can forecast temps and daily rain chances with a fair amount of accuracy, but forecasting where a tornado is going to hit a day in advance is nearly impossible.

Forecasting cyclone genesis is in no way similar to forecasting basic global temperature trends. If you can't see the difference, there is no reason to even discuss this with you. Common sense can't be taught I'm afraid.
we now have 91L

but not sure where its at

AL, 91, 2016082618, , BEST, 0, 305N, 648W, 20, 1014, LO,
Quoting 670. thetwilightzone:

we now have 91L

but not sure where its at

AL, 91, 2016082618, , BEST, 0, 305N, 648W, 20, 1014, LO,

I believe that's ex-fiona
Quoting 670. thetwilightzone:

we now have 91L

but not sure where its at

AL, 91, 2016082618, , BEST, 0, 305N, 648W, 20, 1014, LO,
By Bermuda

AKA: Ex-Fiona.
We have a New Blog!
674. MahFL
Quoting 603. IDTH:

I'm back, I just had a great time with two of my friends that made my birthday incredibly enjoyable.

Anywho, enough about me! I see shear has completely let up around 99L...


No it has not, there is moderate shear from the SSW. The shear map says it should be lower and from the W, but the shear maps are obviously underdoing the real shear.
Quoting 673. bigwes6844:

We have a New Blog!
lol was wondering why it seemed so slow all of a sudden.

Quoting 666. bjrabbit:



I thought personal attacks were not allowed on this blog...oh my mistake...I'm the enemy so you can say whatever.

In geology we say "The past is the key to the present" and vice versa. We have a firm understanding of what the climate was in the past thanks to geology.  We know how long earth's heating and cooling periods were and what caused them including sea level rise and fall, by studying geologic evidence and using carbon dating.  We can see recent tangible evidence to understand how quickly our planet is warming.  We can clearly see, and have plenty of evidence, that humans are causing global warming due to our technological advances that enable us to quickly alter the earth's climate within decades instead of tens of thousands to millions of years. 
I can't comprehend how anyone can argue against this evidence.  Thankfully, there is no debate within learning institutions and there is some hope that our younger generations will figure out this problem of epic proportions.  Unfortunately we have left this problem to our children to figure out and it may be too late. 

Quoting 645. bjrabbit:



Yes RockinghamBob you are correct...they keep records of temperatures at airports that Blah blah blah.....


Here in Arizona the thermometers at the airports actually read cooler than the surrounding areas. I think your "theory" is a crock...
Quoting 639. bjrabbit:



...proven science in that day.

Evidence? Or are you just randomly saying things?
Anyone have any interest yet in 91L?
Quoting 616. K8eCane:



OMG i finally found my satellite image of Elvis...but maybe not


He's got those big ol sunglasses on
Quoting 680. hurrikanehunter14:

Anyone have any interest yet in 91L?



Yes. If it gets renamed Fiona and comes to NC I'm fist fighting it.

Quoting 676. recordfinder:


In geology we say "The past is the key to the present" and vice versa. We have a firm understanding of what the climate was in the past thanks to geology.  We know how long earth's heating and cooling periods were and what caused them including sea level rise and fall, by studying geologic evidence and using carbon dating.  We can see recent tangible evidence to understand how quickly our planet is warming.  We can clearly see, and have plenty of evidence, that humans are causing global warming due to our technological advances that enable us to quickly alter the earth's climate within decades instead of tens of thousands to millions of years. 
I can't comprehend how anyone can argue against this evidence.  Thankfully, there is no debate within learning institutions and there is some hope that our younger generations will figure out this problem of epic proportions.  Unfortunately we have left this problem to our children to figure out and it may be too late. 




Welp [Link]
test...




686. vis0

Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Boom!


i know i'm WAYYY behind in reading the blogs but if i may, STS give it another 36 hrs then a few bing bangs then boom.and the lesser bangs from other directions, blobs might be swarming. i worry 2-fold floods and then stagnant water (flies) i wish kids sneakers could have some fly killing repelant under then since as kids we all jump into puddles (a big no no with zika nowadays) but if sneakers had repellant even if we told not to jump into puddles and they did the repellant would kill flies "eggs", of course the chemicals could also harm the kids so best thing is for adults to make sure no puddles are within their block. LETS OB