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Steering current forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:25 PM GMT on July 27, 2007

Thunderstorm activity in association with a westward-moving tropical wave has decreased over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this morning. Wind shear is 15-20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 15 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur. Wind shear is also expected to be 20 knots or higher over the Caribbean for the next week, which should stifle any development there.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, develop a tropical storm off the coast of Africa by Monday. The African wave that would likely be the seed for this moved off the coast last night, but looks unimpressive this morning. Wind shear is 30 knots over the wave and the surrounding region of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and is forecast to remain high in this region for several days. Any tropical storm development will probably have to wait until the wave gets at least 1000 miles from the coast. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is relatively weak and far to the north at present, so dry air and Saharan dust should not be a major impediment. The UKMET and NOPGAPS models do not develop anything over the coming week, and predict high wind shear over the region. My best guess is that the earliest we would see a tropical storm form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles would be Thursday August 2nd.

Steering current forecast
The hurricane steering pattern for the next two weeks over the North Atlantic should be near normal, with no areas at above-average risk for a hurricane strike. The tool I like to use to study steering currents is the 500 millibar (mb) upper-air forecast from the latest run of the GFS model. Plotted on these maps are lines showing how high above sea level one finds a pressure of 500 mb. Where a U-shaped bend occurs, a trough of low pressure is present. Any tropical cyclones that get far enough north to "feel" the trough's presence will recurve to the north. Conversely, an upside-down "U" in the 500 mb height lines reveals the presence of a ridge of high pressure. Ridges force tropical cyclones to move westward (in the Northern Hemisphere.) As seen in Figure 1, a ridge of high pressure was present this morning over the U.S. East Coast, with troughs of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes. Under this steering pattern, any hurricanes in the mid-Atlantic north of about 25 degrees latitude would be recurved by the mid-Atlantic trough, but storms closer to the U.S. would not get recurved until they came very close to the coast and began feeling the Great Lakes trough. One can pull up a loop going out a full 16 days of the 500 mb forecast and watch the evolution of the trough/ridge pattern to see how the steering currents might change.


Figure 1. GFS model forecast of heights of the 500 mb surface above sea level (white lines) for 8am EDT today. The colors show how much counter-clockwise spin is present (vorticity). High vorticity is associated with storms.

To get an idea of the uncertainty in these steering pattern forecasts, a good tool to use is the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) charts. The GEFS charts show runs of the GFS model done using 20 slightly different initial conditions. This creates an "ensemble" of 20 possible forecasts. By examining how these 20 different forecasts diverge with time, one can get an idea of how confident one should be of major changes forecast by the GFS model.

These 20 forecast solutions are plotted as a series of colored lines that trace out the height (in decameters, or tens of meters) above sea level where a certain pressure is found. It turns out that the southern edge of the jet stream is currently found at a 500 mb height of about 582 decameters (5820 meters). Go to the NOAA experimental model graphics web site, click on the latest "Charts" link for the GEFS model, then select to plot up the "500mb 540/582 Hgt Contours". The loop takes a while to load, but gives one the best idea of how the steering currents might evolve. The 20 forecasts all lie close to each other the first few days of the forecast, then begin to diverge at later times. By the end of two weeks, you'll see why these are called "spaghetti plots" (Figure 2).



Figure 2. Forecast of the location where the 500 mb pressure surface will be at a height of 582 decameters (5280 meters) above sea level. This height marks the approximate southern boundary of the jet stream. Top image: the forecast for 8am EDT today. Bottom map: the forecast for 26 days from now. The 20 different lines correspond to 20 different runs of the GFS model with slightly different initial conditions. The runs were all initialized at 06 GMT (8am EDT) July 27. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

For this morning's GEFS run, we see that 16 days from now most of the 20 ensemble members are predicting a shallow trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S., similar to what we've seen through most of June and July this year, and during the entire 2006 hurricane season. However, the trough is forecast to be not as strong as we saw in 2006, and thus will be less likely to recurve storms approaching the U.S. This trough is also forecast to be transient--GEFS runs ever past week are pointing to a near-normal jet stream pattern over the coming two weeks, bringing an alternating series of weak ridges and troughs across North America and the Atlantic. This will bring a near normal chance of landfalling tropical cyclones to all regions of the Atlantic. This is in contrast to the steering pattern of 2006, which saw the jet stream get "stuck" in place, with a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. most of the season.

My next update will be Sunday, unless there's some major development to talk about.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Posted By: IKE at 5:35 PM CDT on July 27, 2007.

So conditions haven't been favorable in any spot in the Atlantic this season? There's been no red box all year that I've seen.


Not quite...



Starting to shoot up and well above average...

Here is what 2004 looked like:



Black line = normal probability, blue = actual; red circles = storm formations.
502. eye
look at the barcode thing, any color is favorable, the red is really favorable....read the key
503. RL3AO
There is the depression

1
This clearly shows that the East Pacific ramps up much earlier than the Atlantic; in fact, if you look carefully, the climatological probability is actually starting to decrease:

franck, i didn't see that. Something I have noticed, it rained here this morning. It's rained all around me since then, but not right here. I'm fairly close to the coast, just east of center of state. LOL The Cameron low and New Orleans low would be close same distance from me, by the hwys.
507. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:44 PM CDT on July 27, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 5:35 PM CDT on July 27, 2007.

So conditions haven't been favorable in any spot in the Atlantic this season? There's been no red box all year that I've seen.

Not quite...



Thanks for the N-fo STL....
jp
favorability is based on what is there AND conditions.
Posted By: HIEXPRESS at 9:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Posting a link to this story - Just FYI. You got a problem with that?

Geesh, Now that is Internet Squabbling taken to the extreme. As was said in the movie Stripes: "Lighten Up Francis!" The ad, but ironic part is both these guys were in the armed forces at one point in their lives. The Navy and Marines going at it over a few words typed on the internet. HHmmmm, gives the term "shell-shocked" something to think about, and who knows about that Agent Orange, yikes. OK, back to the Tropics. It is the ole wait and see with the waves in the Eastern ATLantic. GFS has some development in the future, but just a little to far down the line as of this time. Just have to watch the pulsation of convection and any LLC that may try to develop and tighten over the next few days. If any significant development occurs, I believe, it would come from the latter of the two waves at this time.
510. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:49 PM CDT on July 27, 2007.
This clearly shows that the East Pacific ramps up much earlier than the Atlantic; in fact, if you look carefully, the climatological probability is actually starting to decrease:


I didn't know it decreased in the east PAC this early!
512. RL3AO
It has another peak in September Ike.
513. IKE
Posted By: RL3AO at 6:02 PM CDT on July 27, 2007.
It has another peak in September Ike.


OK.
The East Pacific (more properly, the eastern half) has a double peak in activity; this is last year's graph:



According to the NHC, activity from July-October is pretty constant (each month usually has 2 hurricanes and one major hurricane, with 4 storms in each month except for 2 in October).
515. IKE
What causes that?
So many people think that 2007 has no chance. But can I make an observation? I've noticed that La Nia years typically start off slow, then get active late -- which was the exact opposite of 2006.

List of La Nia years off the top of my head (note that there are many more than I list here):

1st storm formation in each year:

1950: August 12
1955: July 31
1978: July 30 (the subtropical storm doesn't count in my book)
1984: August 28
1985: July 15
1988: August 7
1998: July 29
1999: June 12 (it started early, but ended up being VERY SLOW until August 18 with the formation of Bret)
2000: August 4

Now for how many storms formed in those years, despite slow early season activity:

1950: 13
1955: 12
1978: 12
1984: 13
1985: 11
1988: 12
1998: 14
1999: 12
2000: 15

See, don't count this season out just yet. Most La Nia years seem to start slow, then get active later. Perhaps MJO is generally downward during the beginning of the season during La Nia years? Dunno, but there has to be something causing that.
517. RL3AO
Not that many are saying the season is a bust and most of those who do are trolls.
Also, even if you don't follow the Pacific, trends there can be important because of the association between the Pacific and Atlantic; for instance, this is from one of Cosme's discussions:

ONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS
HAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME.

I am not sure what years those are though. The West Pacific has also been considerably slower than average with 4 storms as of now, possibly 5 by the end of the month if 97W develops, still below average, I think they were supposed to have about 5 as of last month, there are quite a few seasons that have had 2-3 times as many storms by now; you may remember that they forecast both the East and West Pacific seasons to be below average due to La Nina developing.
Just to give y'all an idea of how saturated Texas is. Although the Houston metro area has not been hit as bad as other parts of Texas, 1.5 inches of rain today cause street flooding in north Houston and raised the bayous. 1.5 inches is not that much rain for the area - everyone is just so saturated. Let's just hope that everything gets a chance to dry out before a cane or TS may hit.
Just to give y'all an idea of how saturated Texas is. Although the Houston metro area has not been hit as bad as other parts of Texas, 1.5 inches of rain today cause street flooding in north Houston and raised the bayous. 1.5 inches is not that much rain for the area - everyone is just so saturated. Let's just hope that everything gets a chance to dry out before a cane or TS may hit.
521. RL3AO
STL, 97W is already a 30kt depression. Only needs a little more strengthening to become Usagi.
Perhaps MJO is generally downward during the beginning of the season during La Nia years?

That is interesting, and I noticed in the weekly ENSO updates from the CPC that they show that suppressed convection has been persistant over the East Pacific and Atlantic:

Hmm, that is weird STL... That could be one contributing factor (out of the many) for no storms since June 1 in the Atlantic.
the season is just getting started properly, nothing slow about it.
the local met was on again, the 3rd low possibly forming is at the mouth of the MS river, I got it close to correct when I said Venice. There is a 4th, which he saw trying to form, south of Lafayette. The 4th IF it forms would possibly something to worry about.

He then pointed out the ones being discussed here, just called attention to them, didn't give a lot of info. Considering some parts of Acadiana are getting 2 - 4 inches per hour right now, can't blame him.
This site actually has an index that measures the strength of ENSO related precipitation to show how strong the signal is in the atmosphere; I have been keeping track of it since early this month, and it seems pretty well correlated with SST changes (it briefly went positive in late May, followed by considerable warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, now the opposite appears to be happening):



SSTs from earlier this month (notice the westerly winds in the far western Pacfiic; that is related to Man-Yi, which suggests how Ioke sped up the development of El Nino last year, except Ioke crossed the entire Pacific):


Current SSTs:


Notice that the area near 110W has cooled from near to slightly above average to 2.5C or more below average (the signficance of that can be seen on this page, which tracks the SST at 110W, though the CPC uses a region that is a bit further west).
http://members.lycos.co.uk/loveatfirstsight4/happyhour.gif

...hey, gang! T G I F, finally! Time to relax...for a bit at least!

...our CATL waves doing anything?
Nice Graphics STL.. The Girl is coming on strong..

Hey SW!

Dang Right MoonlightCowboy!
Hey, Jp, StormW, all!

...STL, sure knows how to post some great data!
does all the flooding in texas mean that when the rain finally stops the heat index will soar with high humidity and normal heat?
I also noticed that rainfall across equatorial Africa has been well above average over the last month (the site that I linked to earlier).
535. RL3AO
I didn't see this posted earlier so here. About 4 hours old.

1
536. RL3AO
The ITCZ has seemed to be very active the past month or so. Lots on systems that have caught out eye.
no bloggin for me today.
so i guess micheal that that means anytime now we should start seeing storms form. It goes right in line with all the new t waves.
Hey guys, just on to take care of this italicized font for those of use who like to view on "Show All Comments."

There. That should do it... I hope.
dang micheak your like the "ssts an other climate things that influence tropical systems" expert man! You know soooo much. I got a lot to learn still!
541. RL3AO
TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N ON THE
1800 UTC SFC MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE SOME TURNING IS NOTED ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. LOOKING FURTHER EAST...A
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA AND WILL
PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. THE RAOB FROM
BAMAKO MALI SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW GOOD TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.

this is from the 805 pm TWD>
Wikipedia's Featured Article of the day is Hurricane Kenna!

Link
000
AXNT20 KNHC 272352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N ON THE
1800 UTC SFC MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE SOME TURNING IS NOTED ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. LOOKING FURTHER EAST...A
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA AND WILL
PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. THE RAOB FROM
BAMAKO MALI SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW GOOD TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W MOVING W 5-10 KT. A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. ISOLATED CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
MAINLY FROM 9N-14N. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN SSMI-DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W/80W S
OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE PAIRED WITH THE ITCZ IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL AS A
POLEWARD INFLECTION OF HIGH MOISTURE IN SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N16W 8N22W 10N30W 11N41W 10N50W
9N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL
WAVE. METSAT-9 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS IS SHOWING THE WESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT HAS ALREADY MOVED
INLAND. THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 26N WEST OF 88W. AS OF
27/2100 UTC A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N96W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NE MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO FLARED UP. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF FROM MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC HIGHS OF 1016 MB ARE
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE LOUISIANA. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF IS HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR W ATLC. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WED. AS IS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
BASIN ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONE OF THIS WAVE IS ALONG 80W. SEE
ABOVE. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA RELATED TO THE SEMI-PERMANENT
LOW PRES THAT SITS THERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRETTY QUIET. UPPER NE FLOW AROUND RIDGING DOMINATES THE NW
PORTION...AHEAD OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING NE
FROM COSTA RICA TO NEAR HAITI. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHILE TROUGHING AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E COASTAL WATERS...
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WRN ATLC W OF 77W. THIS REGION IS UNDER
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST COAST AND RIDGING EXTENDING E FROM THE GULF ALONG 26N OUT
TO NEAR 70W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N72W AND
CONTINUES MAINLY S TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. AN UPPER LOW HAS REMAINED QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
29N61W. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE IS ALSO
ANALYZED ALONG 3058W 25N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGING AND ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E
ATLC. A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W ALSO
DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
GR
And out of that mess^^

LOOKING FURTHER EAST...A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA AND WILL
PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. THE RAOB FROM BAMAKO MALI SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW GOOD TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.
...may roll off slightly n of the itcz?
It needs to get out of that area of high shear, and fast. Otherwise, turn to the CATL over the next few days.
water vapour loop with distinct turning Near 11N 48W


Link
Tke LLC in the CALT is trying to break away from the main cloud mass
From the NHC's discussion posted above:

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND.

The low is no longer plotted on the map but I saw what's left an hour ago. Interesting drive home from work entering the central part of this weak circulation. Broken clouds were curving around me on all sides, not moving particularly, lots of stratiform, limited cumulus. I'm more used to all the clouds in the sky moving in about the same direction. Gives me a little tingle to observe. LOL!

This disturbance is what I'd call a near miss.
That's a whole lot of dry air from northern S America NE onward... it's gonna take some time and a few waves to moisten it up.
I agree, bappit. What was strange for me was the light rain. It was kind of like a really heavy, dense mist.
I don't know stoorm. That looks like a bunch of clouds drifting in the easterlies.

Clouds evaporating and forming can give the appearance of movement. On radar backbuilding can make rain look stationary. Appearances can be deceiving. I'd pay more attention to clouds with a direct connection to the surface, not the fuzzy debris clouds left over from convection.
Yep, OneDay, we don't get that kind of rain in summer too much.
The moisture content is wayyyyyy up there.
bappit are you in Tx? yea I guess so -if you saw the low.

I was checking the pressures and, factoring in height, I think the lows in the gulf are the lowest. The front seems to have curved down over Florida more than forecast.

Even with the shear I think development is still possible in the central gulf.


Sorry nash haven't been watching that area - a lot are - don't know where they all ran off to.
Hey guys. Can't stay on.. Very tired. Just wanted to know what is going on in terms of the wave off Africa...

I checked the Euro model at 12z and it still showed a storm... Any updates?
Good evening...

Hurricane Season Far From Over

Here is an update from accuweather on the season so far.

Joe b says he see's 6-7 systems affecting the united this hurricane season.More here + a 5 minute video from joe.
lots of tubulance and upper movement of air as per ir sat all over the place n.a east coarst nor and sou atlantic someting coming wont be long now 4 to 6 days maybe
I can not believe we have barely gotten any rain here in northwest Houston today. We were totally prepared for thunderstorms and flooding, but have barely gotten .15" of rain. I've noticed that throughout the day the thunderstorms have stayed nmostley over the GOM. Thank you God...we didn't need any more rain.

This season has been very quiet so far....as has been the last few years, for the Galv/Hou coast. I think I'm going to reduce our homeowners insurance deductable...cuz I know we are over due for a big one.

Allyson
562. RL3AO
A TCFA has been issued for 91S. If this becomes a depression, it would be like a system becoming a depression in the Atlantic in February.
563. CJ5
Not much going on...some indepth wave watching is all. Right now there are two of interest both have some potential.

I am still impressed with the disturbance over Mali right now...I will make no predictions but will watch very closely...lol
The UKMET is still tracking Cosme.

cosme

565. RL3AO
Cosme remnants = 97W?
Check out this buoy report off the carolina coast during hurricane floyd. You can clearly see when the eye passed over.
Yeah, sc, the buoy graphs are cool.

Feel the buoy, be the buoy.
The buoy rules.

The gulf blob should start firing up again soon.


The wind directions im watching now. Yea they are frontal but im thinking they will enhance the formation of a surface low along the trough.

look at these two (note wind dir)

Station 42019 - Freeport, TX 60 NM South of Freeport, TX

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
Hey everyone. I've been lurkin here for the last few months, but don't have much to add so I keep quiet. I'm a former yankee, now livin in Mobile, Al. Moved down right after Katrina. I'm tryin to prepare for the season but I need some info on generators (size, what it will power up.. etc....) Can someone help?
JFlorida--
I checked one of the buoys off the Texas coast. Can see the usual diurnal pressure changes. Tides in the atmosphere cause that once each day. Slight downward trend, but the scale of the graph tends to exaggerate the smaller changes. Have to see how far up the next up swing goes, but I don't see anything at the surface to focus convection in a particular area now that the low has gone poof. Also, somebody keeps harping about the shear, whatever that is!
The 850 vort still points at the Texas coastal area - but that is old.

The shear actually isn't that bad.

Oh yea you can actually see the Area of interest on the IR firing up - LOOK AT THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER RIGHT ON THE GULF

Looks to be headed SE - but im not sure.

Its an area of circ I think but not a surface low.
hey everyone just came in from work been gone all day so whats going on in the tropics anything possibly forming or looking interesting tonight?
YankeeRebel, Welcome to the WU Blogs!☺
Always Feel Free To Ask Questions;
Lot's of Great Folks To Learn From &
Shoot The Breeze With.
FRAN

BTW, Excellent Screen Name :o)
oh yea yankeerebel - sorry, welcome.

I know nothing bout buying no generator BUT Ive seen pics of one people built themselves

it looks like a disaster, but and interesting one

This is what im talken about! Heck yea!!
Does anyone know if the BBob site is a non-profit?
thanks FLcrackergirl. this is a cool site, you can learn alot. Like I said, I'm tryin to learn what to have in the event of a storm. I'm not goin to ride one out but I'm not goin to stay away forever either so I'm lookin for info on generators and such...
JFlorida, that is the Cameron spin that i mentioned earlier - it showed up well on radar at 6pm when local met pointed it out to his viewers
hi Granny - did he happen to say what direction he thought it was going?
Posted By: RL3AO at 2:27 AM GMT on July 28, 2007.

Cosme remnants = 97W?

--------------------------
sort of.. Cosme dissipated just after it crossed the international dateline a few days later it moved into lower shear and a new low formed. The JTWC designated the new low 97W.
Dog is in the woods
is the wave at around 41W looking dead or maintaining convection? Any waves looking decent at least on this Friday night?
Dr Neil Frank, formerly with the NHC, just talked about the blogee thingee - he said that there is parent low which formed some siblings which threw off to LA. Sorry I thought that it was funny.lolol
Evenin all - just stopping in briefly - very tired tonight. Anything worth taking a look at right now?
lol JF, thanks but I think I'll leave that up to the experts. The idea is to keep the home intact, lol. Appreciate it though.
JFlorida, no - he didn't
but it seems to have moved south. On his local radar - there were several spins, one in Cameron parish, which that one is south of, one around Houston, one at the mouth of the Ms river and one south of marsh island in the water - it became visible as he was talking, it kinda surprised him LOL there is a H in that spot now tho
I was just going to mention the pregnant low sitting over SE Texas myself. I love Dr. Frank's weather reports.
Hornfan, wish I had seen Neil Frank! I would've enjoyed hearing about all the little counterclockwise spins that were developing over this way. It was a bit strange watching them on radar this afternoon.
paula
yankeerebel go to this site... http://www.cumminsonan.com/ All you need to know... Buy a good one if you do, the cheap ones will burn up electronics and medical equipment..
yankeerebel, welcome to the Gulf Coast! Your question stirs up some conflicting thoughts since I have never even considered buying a generator, but ... I'm curious.

2005 rattled people, and I believe in regression to the mean. Also my list of experiences includes Audrey, Flossie, Carla, Hilda, Betsy, Camille, Andrew, Allison, Rita and others I have forgotten.

But then the coasts have built up a lot so there is more to repair after a storm, takes longer. Some of the Florida members probably have some stories to tell about the relatively modest hurricanes that struck that state in 2004 and 2005 and caused big headaches. (Charley was a cat 4 but small and moved pretty quickly.) The vulnerability of your location is a big factor, too.

Severe consequences are rare and limited in the area they affect, particularly since hurricanes are quite assymetrical. The west side fairs a lot better than the east. The top winds and surge of a storm are expected only on the east. Winds decrease rapidly inland. Basically the storm shrinks in size as soon as it hits the coast. Storms also vary greatly in size and speed of movement. Things have to come together just right to get Katrina-like damage--and that required human incompetence, too.

In fact, I am probably more concerned about the sanity of our way of life than I am about the storms. If everyone in Houston fills their gas tanks up at the same time, the stations will run out of gasoline--everywhere in the city. I was disgusted with the way Houston panicked over Rita. 48 hours before landfall the highways were choked, almost all stores closed and shelves empty in what was open.

I'm ranting. I'll stop.


I know its early, but definitely something to watch!

Another massive wave should be coming off in a day or two....

business will definitely be picking up!
Well, my wife is originally from here but never had to go without electricity. We stayed with her dad for 5 days after Katrina because he had power about 40 miles north of here so I'm just tryin to prepare and take care of the family. My attitude, better to have and not need.
yankeerebel, you should call your local power company for help. They can provide all the safety info you need along with power requirements. They can also help with special equipment for hooking one up to the house without endangering other people on the grid (ie. so you don't accidentally power up the lines coming out of your house and electrocute a lineman repairing lines down the street who thinks the lines are dead, only to find you have powered them up).
lol, I know how to deal with a blizzard!!! :)
Evening all ☺

Guess this is the latest quickscat of the African waves. Seems like this pass was about 5:00pm est?

Quickscat pass

This is the descending pass.

Find the Quickscat page and much more from here.
A Couple of Generator Linkies:

GeneratorJoe's Faq Page

AllWeatherFriends.net has an Ongoing Discussion Thread Mobal's Generator Tips.
(You'll Need To Register, But No Big Deal. Most of AWF's Moderator's Are WU Bloggers Too.)
Coincidently, Mobal is from Mobile Also.

sorry, for delayed response...blog ate my first post
I do know some about generators, survivial, how to prepare, stuff like that. But is this the chat room to share that info? Don't want to be considered Spam or not on topic.
Dodabear, didn't think of that but it sounds like a good idea. Are you talking about portable generators or full house units though?
Hey Fran ☺

Good to see ya thel!
Preparedness is always on topic zingo!~)
np Flcracker. Thank You. Zingo, I'm gonna guess it's not spam because in does inadvertantly pertain to the subject. I could be wrong though.
yankeerebel, you asked a darn good question. Lot's of good info coming from the other folks. Nice to see the board workin!
I plan on goin to the local Home Depot tomorrow and askin alot. Just thought I'd try to get a little knowledge first and not go in lookin stupid, lol.
yankeerebel Actually, it doesn't matter if it is a portable or full house unit. Our utility will provide the equipment for free. They feel it is worth it to save their linemen's lives.
HiYa, SJ! {waves heartily}

Zingo, Storm Prep Suggesstions, Directions & Linkies Never Considered Spam :o)
hey SJ
bappit:

That kind of information is completely irresponsible and without merit. Your "rant" is completely fallacious. I have lived on the coast in Niceville, FL (just north of Destin) for 13 years and I have NEVER heard such tripe.

Severe consequences are rare and limited in the area they affect
FALSE - severe consequences are widespread. If you want proof, go look at what happened when Opal landed. Look at what happened when Ivan landed. Look at happened when Dennis landed. Look at what happened when Katrina landed.

In the case of Opal, they were feeling the effects of the storm directly in Atlanta when the L passed over them - 370 miles inland. Over 100,000 were without power in the Atlanta area for over 3 days.

Depending on the strength of the low pressure system, the effects can be far reaching.

The west side fairs a lot better than the east.
FALSE. While the west does not necessarily experience the effects of the offshore winds, they typically receive the same frequency of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, which are just as deadly (if not more so) than the wind on the eastern side of the storm.

In fact, I am probably more concerned about the sanity of our way of life than I am about the storms

Perhaps - but that says that you do not value human life very highly. Anyone that is in the cone of uncertainty (not just "on the black line") should be considering evacuation if they live near the coast.

Your post was irresponsible and misleading. While I champion everyone's right to an opinion and free speech, I do not support it to the point of misinformation. I am going to ask that your submission be reviewed for the purpose of being banned.
Where is everyone from?
Cape Coral FL
Niceville (if you couldn't guess) FL - just down the road from you...
Hey Buhdog, good to see ya

Charleston, SC yr; welcome aboard
Thanks guys, I am only learning weather, but no power for over week, I do know how to get ready for a storm.

Decide what type Generator you want. Look at online places --Home Depot, Lowes, Sams Club.
Decide how much money you want to put in one. Couple hundred for a little gas (OUTSIDE IN DA YARD STUFF--NO FUMES IN HOUSE), or a nice expensive sit beside the house big on machine.

Next you decide if you want an electrican to install a turn on switch for you outside and you can just turn in on flipping a switch. That cost too :(

Decide if you want a disel or gas powered one, you will have to stock up if you plan to use it.

We crank ours up every July 4th because you want to check them out at least once a year.

Does this help any??
613. cjnew
I agree with everything you said MrNiceville.

I'm in Panama City Fl
North Topsail Area, North Carolina here

Daughter lives in Charleston, SC on a island
On the subject of generators:

1) A 5500W unit can power most of what you need to live on and are fairly inexpensive ($600-700). You can power a small refrigerator, a TV, and a small window A/C unit with one.

2) The home-sized ones that are powered from natural gas utilty lines are great, until the proverbial stuff hits the fan. If a hurricane/tornado/plague of locusts blows through, there's no guarantee that you'll have utility gas.

3) While more expensive to begin with, consider a diesel powered unit. When the above mentioned stuff hits the fan, gasoline will be rarer than hen's teeth, but diesel will tend to stick around longer since not everyone has diesel cars and generators.

4) TEST TEST TEST. Run your generator once a month with a load. Make sure it starts cleanly and can put out power.

5) Don't store the generator with fuel in the tank. Store fuel separately. Use a fuel stabilizer to keep the fuel from turning into shellac. Testing your generator on a regular basis will help you keep your fuel stockpile fresh.

6) ABSOLUTELY DO NOT connect your generator to your main breaker panel without a way to disconnect your panel from the street utility lines. Your electric company linemen will thank you. Several companies make automatic transfer switches that will disconnect your panel from the street the instant they see power on the backup circuits.


I've worked in the emergency response field (firefighter, EMT, rescue units) for the past 10 years or so, so if you have any additional questions, feel free to ask or WunderMail me.
And I'm in Atlanta, GA. Lived in Cape Coral, FL a few years ago and got to experience the wonders of Hurricane Charley.
Yankeerebel - also consider getting plywood to "make" shutters for your windows, if you don't have shutters.

There is a product (I think it's brand name is PlyLox) that allows you to erect plywood sheets directly over your windows, if they're inset in brick. I use them every time - easy to get up and (more importantly) easy to get down without nails or screws. No mess or marks left behind. I didn't lose anything during Ivan and we clocked 100+ mph winds here.

Also - the essentials - bottled water (or fill your tub), canned food (and a can opener), gasoline cans, batteries for radios and flashlights, a coleman stove (if you don't have nat gas), a first aid kit, visquene (plastic sheeting), you get the idea...
Nice area up there zingo, welcome!

ok, off to bed y'all, see everyone tomorrow.

ty zingo, appreciate it. MrNiceville, how far is that from here? It looks familiar. I drive trucks and once a month I take I-10 through Fla and head up to Dothan, Al. I think I've seen that name.
I'd recommend getting the coleman stove and a few bottles of propane even if you have natural gas. There's no guaranteeing the presence of street utilities in the event of a distaster.
NiTe SJ............don't let the bed blobs bite
I've got a 7500 Disel that can operate two campers and a welder on a trailer for the house, but have used the small honda for the house mostly. You really don't need to power up everything, only what you need to get by. Each home is different, you might want more things to run, which means a larger unit. My main items are Freezer, Fridge, and computer. Honda will run all these at once. The Honda is used most because it is easilier to get hooked up and started. Welder is used at church to house evacts inland.
Good morning to whoever is still here.
Thanks SJ have a good nite
Y'all have been a huge help. Thank You. Like I said, I don't plan on ridin it out but I'm not gonna stay away long after one passes. I stayed through a ts in Tampa back in the late 90's and it wasn't bad, but I was single than, and my wife said we will not stay, lol. I just want to be prepared for a while without power.
very important----Download Home Inventory program for the Home Institute. It is free. Get a picture of EVERYTHING you own. This program will even let you scan in your receipt and put it with the pictures room by room. To prove contents to a Insurance Co. is sometime hard to do. Get you paperwork in order and make a copy to send to someone you trust. You might need it one day and it could make a difference on what you can get paid for.
Zingo, I'm mostly concerned with the fridge and freezer , and a 1 room AC unit. Maybe tv if it'll hold but not really worried about that.
Yankeerebel - we're south on 85 from the Crestview exit - about 30 miles or so. If you ever go to Destin and use the Mid-Bay bridge, you have to go through Niceville to get to it.

As you know, it's an easy hop - about 1:45 from my door to the Jubilee Parkway (eastern side). Bet you're glad you don't have to deal with that eastbound weigh station in Pensacola anymore (the one they built on the side of I-10 before you hit the Pcola bay bridge).
Make sure you have REPLACEMENT VALUE on your home insurance policy. I don't know if all insurance companies will write it, but get it if you dont have it.
do pictures suffice or does it have to be video??
When sizing a generator to run things like a fridge/freezer/AC unit, make sure that you get one that's large enough to handle the surge/peak draw of these units. Remember, these things all draw a load of current when they initially start their respective compressors and fans, then current draw falls off quickly as the motors come up to speed.
lol Mr Niceville. We always made a joke about those stations heading east, but heading east isn't my problem. I'm empty heading up to Dothan but on the way back I take the back roads of Al. I am scale dodgin big-time, lol.
Water Water and more Water. Coke 2 liter bottles are perfect. Save em and use them. People who have county or city water do not understand most of them work off gravity. You may have water the day after storm, but if those pumps aren't pumping, you gonna run out as soon as tanks empty. I stock up and at times never used it, but my hubby use to make fun of me stockpling, he don't no more. It doesnt cost a thing.

The gas camp stove is a great idea, just be show it is clean and you fuel for it.

I got to have my coffee, I got a stovetop camp coffee pot, makes best HOT coffee. You will meet neighbors you lived near for years. They will smell it and come running after a storm!
so, what kind of power would that take,Parkay?
LOL zingocat - forgot about that!

Ice is good to have too. It helps keep the beer cold in the cooler while your sitting in your garage, watching the weather go by with your neighbors. Some of the best block parties we've had were while waiting for the storms (TS and Cat 1 variety ONLY)...
PICTURES! The program is at the Insurance Information Institute. It is free. Video is good, but an adjuster may not be in a postion to see it (might not have anything to play it on.) If you can show me a picture of that hutch taken before being under all that stuff in the room I am looking at that has no ceiling now, hey, I know it was there and you can show BEFORE damage. Receipt is big help in pricing.
We always make sure we have plenty of water and Gatorade. I definitely understand the importance of hydration.
what if you don't have receipts? Alot of stuff is years old..
We take turns having Freezer parties after a storm. Who is neighbor has meat ready to cook on grill? Make sure you got plenty of charcol or gas for grill.

Ice is easy here--go to fish house and they have rooms of ice. Salt water gonna get it anyway. They sell cheap or give it away.

May I take this time to say three famous words connected to a hurricane?

TOLIET PAPER BATTERIES

If you can't get these at stores where people are buying them up, go to a office supply store. They will probably have it when others are sold out. But buy ahead! Be prepared!!
lol Mr Niceville. That's what it was like for that ts I went through in Tampa. I was in the Air Force and was livin in the dorms on base. We just drank beers and laughed at the flickering lights.
Depends on the size of things. When I sized a generator for a house, I took measurements of their fridge, chest freezer, and 7500BTU window unit. They each drew around 1500W peak, 575-600W run. So, technically, they needed a generator that could support a 4500W-5000W peak load.

Now, you can undersize your unit and roll the dice and hope that not all three units start simultaneously (which, given the fact that startup current draw only lasts about 1/2-3/4 second, is a reasonable chance that it won't happen).
If you dont' have receipt, it will have to be estimated. The Insurance company will get a price. The receipt is better for you to show this is what I paid. And dont forget, contents is what's damaged in the home. Show little things too, they add up.

Make sure your outside storage buildings are covered and made sure they are covered for the amount you would need to replace it.
Well, I'm not thinkin gloom and doom but I also know Mobile hasn't had a direct hit in years and I want to be prepared. Like I said, I know how to prepare for a blizzard but this is a totally different animal.
I could go on and on with this stuff. Little things you never think off.

I have a list of everything I would evact with.
Remember some things are not covered on a home owners policy. Like guns, coins, jewerly only $1000.00 is the norm.
I was lookin online at some 5000w generators tonight and they got a decent review. Not sure how doctored those reviews are but it made it sound like you could power up quite a bit.
If you stay, put your importpant papers and pictures in plastic zip lock bags, including your Insurance policy. Have all your items together in case you have to leave.

Several ways to do this:

Send copies to someone out of state you love and trust.

Safe Deposit Box

Keep them in shoe box, include on your list to leave with, pack em when you leave.

And finally, if you are over 80 you probably already have all this stuff in a quart jar buried in the back yard!!!
We've talked about things to evac with from real valuable stuff to things that are sentimental value. That part I have covered, it's the stuff after w/o power I'm concerned about. Some people have money to stay away till power comes back on. I'm not one of those people, lol.
My camper generator came of Ebay. Brought it brand new in box. Got good deal and BTW sent copy of receipt to Insurance Company to make sure it was covered. Model # Serial #, etc.
lol at the quart jar thing. Nope, not there..
now, model and serial numbers are something I do have..
After Floyd I would not leave my home. 9 trees down in front yard, stopped counting after 35. I was afraid I would miss the FEMA or Insurance Adjuster or the house could be broken into with windows up.

Insurance would have paid for us a hotel, but remember line men come from all over and they work LLLLLLLong hours just for us. They have to sleep and need showers too. They take presidence over us. We did have a roof over our heads.
Hey tropicaldude. You can extend some latitude, this is learnin for me. Noone is tryin to stop you from talkin about that. Hell, I'm interested in it too.
In my work I've dealt with State Farm Catastrophe and have seen the stress in them. You're right,it wears on them too.
Someone please tell me why a day after a storm it just gets hot and humid? Happens everytime.

If I go out to a storm to work I will need to be self suffient for two weeks.
the dog is in the woods
Did I mention swimming pools?? They turn all black and ugly from the dirt and trash from the trees.

Make use of it, grab a 5 gallon bucket and flush that commode!! Could be best salution. If you have your own septic tank you should be fine. Public I am not sure of, depends on you situation. You can clean inside of toliet after power comes on or just keep a cleaner in it.
Cause the storm is still trying to drag a bunch of tropical moisture up with it?

4 days of heat & humidity with no power and A/C after Charley just sucked. Fortunately, we had our pool and I managed to hot wire together enough parts and pieces (a computer UPS + the battery out of my car) to run a box fan at night so we could at least sleep comfortably. Macguyver was an amateur :)
what do you do?
lmao at the Macguyver reference. But can you build a bomb out of a stick of gum???
I disassembled the UPS, disconnected the internal battery (A small 12V 6AH gelled electrolyte battery which had gone bad), and connected the car battery in place of it.

It would run the fan for about 6 hours before the battery ran low enough for the UPS to trip out and stop working. The battery was then not charged enough to start the car, but I worked around that. Our driveway was long enough and inclined enough that I could open the garage door, start rolling backward down the driveway , and pop the clutch (yay stick shifts!).

Run the car for about 45 minutes to charge the battery. Repeat as needed.
Parkay, hubby did the same thing here, for the 'puter though in prep for both K and Rita. LOL
I try to have at least a couple weeks of drinking water in the house, too. You never know whether or not you'll have salt water intrusion into the city lines. We did after Rita for about 3mths.
"Posted By: Dodabear at 11:43 AM CDT on July 27, 2007.

I don't know why you guys are looking at models, have you forgotten this already??????

Posted By: stormkat at 10:22 AM EDT on July 26, 2007.
it wont be boaring for long as i said august 3rd we will have our first hurricane of the season...gentlemen and ladies start your engines its time to get really serious....dont worry about the area in the GOM to much shear and that low over texas wlll kill anything from happeneing...next week look out especially the caribbean sea its going to be very active few months...it will be interesting...StormKat


I mean...... come on..... so it is written, so it shall be....... Hurricane by August 3rd. The models just don't understand."


Well, I claim the 4th of August. It is written in clay. One of us will be right. Somebody want to take the 5th?
Forget the models for a moment and look at climatology. The E. Pac has been dead so far. That's the warning light flashing. Active E.Pac early leads to diminished Atlantic season. Inactive E.Pac leads to active Atlantic season. This year; record low activity in E.Pac! Less than 05, 04, or 98. the Writing is on the wall.
not the 5th, but I was withouy power for 8 days with charley... 5 miles NE of downtown orlando. was not too bad, had no fans, not nothing. cold showers felt great till about day 5 lol. it was very interesting, the neighborhood was blocked ny oak trees till about 2PM. it was an experience...
667. RL3AO
4 storms and 7 depressions doesn't really count as dead. Average is 15 and the EPac should finish with around 12 or so. Record low is 8.
8days? Try a month and a half in P'cola after Ivan. No Radio, no tv, every media outlet from Tallahassee to Mobile was flattened.
E.pac usually gets some fairly well developed Hurricanes. The bulk of the E Pac season happens early. already more than half over. Only 4 named storms leaves it possible to break record. However, slow E.Pac is a telltale sign of high number of Atl. storms. Where they are steered to is another story though.
Someone please tell me why a day after a storm it just gets hot and humid? Happens everytime.

Because a tropical cyclone is a giant heat engine, and is necessary evil, I guess you could say. It drops a ton of tropical moisture over a wide area, thus heating up the air and causing humidity levels to significantly rise. The oceans are warm, thus the moisture it gets from the ocean is warm. That simple. :)

Posted By: stormkat at 10:22 AM EDT on July 26, 2007.
it wont be boaring for long as i said august 3rd we will have our first hurricane of the season...gentlemen and ladies start your engines its time to get really serious....dont worry about the area in the GOM to much shear and that low over texas wlll kill anything from happeneing...next week look out especially the caribbean sea its going to be very active few months...it will be interesting...StormKat


Let's see if that verifies... God. *rolls eyes*
E.pac usually gets some fairly well developed Hurricanes. The bulk of the E Pac season happens early.

Very true. Adolph in 2001 formed in May, becoming a Category 4, the strongest on record in May for the East Pacific. I can think of others, but not right now... >_>

And the SSTs are generally quite warm around the WHWP (Western Hemisphere Warm Pool) during the early part of the East Pacific season, thus storms grow large and powerful early on, and less powerful later on, as the WHWP's core of warm waters moves into the Atlantic basin.

Also, early season major hurricanes tend to upwell the warm water that powers them, thus that also makes it harder for subsequent tropical cyclones to develop into major hurricanes. There is a slight peak around mid to late September though in the East Pacific.

A Category 5 typically takes an El Nio for it to develop (Kenna in 2002 went from 70 mph to 165 mph in very little time during El Nio).
Hey all long time lurker, thought I would chime in on the after the hurricane topic, I have been a adjuster for many years and have worked Isabel, the charley years and then in Fl and new Orleans for Katrina, the major thing I would tell everyone to do (especially in Florida) is read and understand your policy very well, a lot of the Florida insurance companies have exclusions, endorsements etc that will really limit your coverage.....especially if you are close to the coast line, a lot of main stream companies will not cover the wind portion and you may be required to go through citizens (LA also has a citizens group), just make sure that you are covered,

Then make sure you know what is and is not covered prior to any storm that may damage your home. It is a very good idea to take a video camera through your home in case everything is gone and as a person stated before and store it at a family members home that does not live near you....if you dont do that, then after a storm has damaged you home, draw each room on a piece of paper, then draw in the big furniture and that will help you remember, anyways, hope I dont have to ever meet any of you in person(that usually means something bad happened)

BTW I love everyones comments; it has helped me to be much more educated as to the science of hurricanes....
I agree with all of that, catadjuster76. Have a great night. :)
We used to run 12v lights off of a running lawnmower before we got the generator going.

Doesn't run the well, but at least we could see the bugs we were swatting.

Inverter would run the laptop to watch the weather until we got the generator as well.

You don't know what you're capable of until you are out of options.
As for heat and humidity, 150 miles inland, it went from 96F to high 70's. Got downright comfortable here after the hurricanes were done. Too bad it didn't last as long as the power outage did.
well it doesnt look like that wave you all wanted to develop will develop any time soon... so many called for August 1st... but i seriously have my doubts... id say we have a system out and about by August 10th (it may form earlier but by that day we will be talking about SOMETHING atleast more official then a good looking wave entering Africa off of the INDIAN OCEAN!!
Also, early season major hurricanes tend to upwell the warm water that powers them, thus that also makes it harder for subsequent tropical cyclones to develop into major hurricanes

E.Pac had plenty of upwelling last year. W.Atlantic basin had virtually none. My fear is that the waters off our shores are warmer down deep(+cycle of MDO) especially West and South of Bermuda. I'm not aware of anyone who takes readings of deeper waters. I believe that deep water temps are the variable that makes many storms' strength difficult to predict.
A Category 5 typically takes an El Nio for it to develop (Kenna in 2002 went from 70 mph to 165 mph in very little time during El Nio).

i agree

ioke would also be wonderfull example!

so wen do y'all think these things will spin up like a jackrabbit in a wheel barrel and turn into a storm?
IOKE triggered El Nino. Look for Jackrabbits, along with Mountain Lions and GrizzlyBears in 2-3 weeks. All the warmest water is closer to land than in 04 & 05. Excluding Charley, Most of the big ones were weakening at landfall. Different scenario this year. Don't expect 19 or 20 storms like in 05. Figure on the 11-13 being strong.
IS there any presidence in the aprostophe shaped low pressure systems in the northern hemiphere??And if there is what years were they and what type of weather was prevelant that year .
It is normal for a coma shaped low pressure system in the united states even as they come down from the NW tward texas and then track north east from there.there are two apostrophe shaped low pressure systems just off theeast coast as well as the one in texas at the momment .
Does anyone know why and what causes this phenomenon?
I don't really understand what you mean, dewfree. Sorry. :(

Excluding Charley, Most of the big ones were weakening at landfall.

Alex wasn't weakening, but strengthening. Although Alex didn't make landfall, it came close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to coastal North Carolina. Jeanne strengthened before landfall... The only ones weakening before landfall were Frances and Ivan, and Ivan was nearly a Cat 4 at landfall. Some sources say 115, others say 130; I am inclined to go with 130. It was a horrendous storm, and if it had hit New Orleans, damage would've been far worse than with Katrina, no doubt. Ivan was worse, IMO.
benirica, just wait until August 10 or so, I think we'll see our next storm, possibly before then. This season is by no means slow, and will get active; we'll wish it was July again.

Note that I did say I THINK.
oh me never mind then Maybe im not getting the point across or maybe my language skills lack who knows . I was just curious about the apostrophe shaped lows that was all . normally they are coma shaped in there nature but ok . it will be alright .as far as August 4 humm cool my birth day . anyway he he yaw have a good one ,.
morning all. just to chime in on the generator post, what we did in 04/05 is put the generator on the back porch,chained it to column and ran extention cords through the house. Used a window a/c unit for the bedroom,
ran the fridge,some lights,the saltwater tank etc....it was paradise!![lol].
back to the weather, things are looking interesting this morning.
the ECMWF is no longer forecasting development. The GFS still shows development. the CMC of course does. The nogaps hints something.
Twentyseven80 you have a strange version of paradise!

But you were more comfortable than most, that is for sure. I had the generator, but no room A/C.

I'm voting for August 10th as the first HURRICANE to form.
Good Morning - thought I'd add my hurricane story -

Frances was still raging on a Monday morning. My husband had no choice (due to an insane employer)but to drive 50 miles to the business he ran. We had been without power since the day before. If he had to go out in that storm and possibly be hurt or worse, he was going clean and with hot food in his tummy. I heated water with a propane stove and took it into the bathroom for him to wash up. Then I made coffee and a hot breakfast on our grill. The damage was pretty bad along his way to work and the roads were flooded. Although we got our power back within two days, the business was without power for a week. We rigged it up and ran that business with lanterns and a calculator.

When you are put in a difficult situation, you'd be surprised at what you can do. Although there were a few that showed their worst, most of our neighbors showed their best.
Talking about Generators the most eficient is the 15kw home style by koler.{Talking about Generators the most eficient is the 15kw home style by koler.{Talking about Generators the most eficient is the 15kw home
style by koler.{

That is if youare serious about them . best to operate on 12 with batteries then run watrer heater and cooling units on these with low loads they are eficient . but hey just an idea .That is if you are serious obout them .
We finally broke down after Frances and bought a generator. We are thankful that we haven't had the opportunity to use it as of yet. I usually re-stock my hurricane supplies before the beginning of hurricane season so I don't have to beat people to the store for supplies if a storm is on the horizon. I added to my stock during the tax free week this year. But is anyone ever really ready for a storm?

As for predictions - I'll wait for StormW's update today. He's usually right.
considering the current and future prices of gasoline natural or propane is the most efficient way of powering a generator . .I know a guy that built his own using a honda motor as the power source. The way he set it up and gear reduced it down it was very efficient as well .It was used along the Gulf coast for weeks during two different events . The generator Honda motor idled the whole time .using aproximately 7 gallons every two days . But remeber this they had to travel about 100 miles for fuel . so if it were me I would purchace a propane setup . and keep a tank on property full . for use with generator.
Probably better if you build it yourself . you can get a 10,000 wattt Altenator from Harbor frieght for around 300.00 dallors see ya have a good one bye bye now ya here
Well before I get kicked off again does anyone know how small a genarator can be just to run a small portable a/c I live in so fl and Im not looking forward to losing power when this season kicks in. I also went throught Fransis & Gean info please thanks
Korithe; Katrina and Rita were both 5s in the central Gulf. As was Ivan. I was in no way trying to diminish any of those devastating storms, but only pointing out that had any one of them undergone Andrew-like intensification just before landfall, things could have been far far worse. With the warmer water closer to the coasts thiis year, as well as a year free of upwelling, we might not be so fortunate. I KNOW that had Ivan been a 5 at lanfall, I wouldn't be alive to be blogging with the wonderful folks here.
im back
but the wunderful t.s like low pressure has brought havoc to the internet!
I found that a good sized car"inverter" works as well as a generator in most smaller aplications.
I was thinking a inverter but this unit uses 900 watts so the batterie wouldnt last what about a tiny genarator anyone tried this??
IOKE triggered El Nino. Look for Jackrabbits, along with Mountain Lions and GrizzlyBears in 2-3 weeks. All the warmest water is closer to land than in 04 & 05. Excluding Charley, Most of the big ones were weakening at landfall. Different scenario this year. Don't expect 19 or 20 storms like in 05. Figure on the 11-13 being strong.

how can a hurricane trigger an el nino

ioke should not hgave happened that was a FREAKWEATHER EVENT.

anyway
has the w africa wave fizzled yet????????
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:45 AM GMT on July 28, 2007.
the ECMWF is no longer forecasting development.



Where Drak? sorry I didn't read much yesterday. Just sitting here in MS waiting for that THING offshore to make it monsoon here. If it keeps hanging around it might do something?
Someone needs to have a talk with 2 cents babysitter. This is not ROMPERROOM! Please chill with the infantile language so us ADULTS can talk tropics.
any 1 heard of the halloween northeaster?????????
WATER SPOUTS About off DELRAY beach
"so us ADULTS can talk tropics"

soz mate but im 11 and im in to the tropics
@ least im not a stupid person like he is!


has any 1 heard of the perfect storm (halloween nor'easter)??????
i need to know about it for my history project!!!!!
Long lasting westerly winds to the south of IOKE's massive crculation reversed the pacific trade winds and pushed warm water eastward triggering el nino. The massive outflow from IOKE Affected weather systems around the world. Part of last year's quietish season was all the upwelling from the 3 seasons we had in 05
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 12:34 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.

Long lasting westerly winds to the south of IOKE's massive crculation reversed the pacific trade winds and pushed warm water eastward triggering el nino. The massive outflow from IOKE Affected weather systems around the world. Part of last year's quietish season was all the upwelling from the 3 seasons we had in 05


so it does cause an el nino!!!!!!

was it just something waiting to happen or was it unexpected??????
Adult has nothing to do with age. Points can be well made without being disrespectful to the rest of us.
I have learned from lurking for so long, that age really doesn't matter on this blog....it's those with a thirst for knowledge and an ability to share a rational thought that count. Those who can't should go play on MySpace.

Mit500. I don't have the link, but the NOAA website is jam packed with info on the Halloween nor'easter. Good luck on your project.
UMY2CNTS i am 11 and i refrain my self form saying such rude things over the internet - people may find it offenceive- like i do!
Posted By: ladyweatherbug at 12:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.

I have learned from lurking for so long, that age really doesn't matter on this blog....it's those with a thirst for knowledge and an ability to share a rational thought that count. Those who can't should go play on MySpace.

Mit500. I don't have the link, but the NOAA website is jam packed with info on the Halloween nor'easter. Good luck on your project.


thank u

and hear hear for the first bit!
umy2cents - here's a quarter - now run along and play somewhere else.

mit500 - what kind of info are you looking for exactly?
Well I understand that and I dont like to be rude only when rude too also this post was for that Ivan guy. I do take Tropics serious since I live in the tropics I realize the topic here but we are not experts or I do belive we wouldnt be here .Just making it real not trying to offend
i got every thing BUT WHY did noaa not class it as a tropical cyclone of any type and - was there any espionage going on while it was happening!
Posted By: UMY2CNTS at 12:41 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.

Well I understand that and I dont like to be rude only when rude too also this post was for that Ivan guy. I do take Tropics serious since I live in the tropics I realize the topic here but we are not experts or I do belive we wouldnt be here .Just making it real not trying to offend

________________________________________________

Y SHOULDX WE BELIVE U
WE HAVE NO PROOF THAT U WHERE SORRY U WHERE BEING NOT VERY KIND RATHER RUDE AND I THINK I SPEAK FOR MOST OF TO SAY THAT U HAVE BEEN REPORTED!
i got every thing BUT WHY did noaa not class it as a tropical cyclone of any type and - was there any espionage going on while it was happening!

Actually the NHC did classify it has an unnamed hurricane. Link
Mit - not sure.....can't seem to find out. Have you sent an e-mail to NOAA? They are really great about e-mailing back. Also - send an email to Dr Masters. I'm sure he can direct you to some info.
It caught alot of forecasters off guard. When the warm water pools in the W.Pac, it takes a trigger to set it in motion. Without IOKE we may have had a stronger El Nino later. Still, I doubt much would have happened last year anyways because of all the 04/05 activity. The tropics needed a year to recharge. Those big storms cause lots of upwelling, cooling the waters beneath the surface. Now those same forecasters are seeing the quiet June and July and saying the season's over. I believe were in for a nasty ride this year, just not 20+ storms.
ill send 1 to dr masters

i live in the uk
so i wont contact noaa
coz
1. i dont know how to contact
2. im 11 and i dont want to raise suspision
AHA!! Leave it to WPBH!! I will be back later. Gotta mow the grass for an old widow before it rains.

TTFN

Mit - again, good luck!
thank you
Ivan - I agree. The season may not produce as many storms as predicted, but it only takes one to wreak havoc. Okay...that's it. Gotta go!!
Anything can happen in late August through September. I hope we have another quiet 10 storm season.
hello
i got every thing BUT WHY did noaa not class it as a tropical cyclone of any type and - was there any espionage going on while it was happening

Why didn't Noaa classify the Thanksgiving storm in 84? The fact is, once it's over it doesn't matter classified or not; the damage is the same








Actually the NHC did classify it has an unnamed hurricane. Link

it says it was sub tropical - so that explains it was not named

sub tropical cyclones (before 03 i think)
never got named back then

thank you
That was noreaster, not a tropical cyclone. (The '84 Thanksgiving storm)
Why didn't Noaa classify the Thanksgiving storm in 84? The fact is, once it's over it doesn't matter classified or not; the damage is the same


dont confuse me im only 11
Hi everyone,

I've been here 2 years now and I don't recognize any of your handles, but I wanted to leave a question in case any of you can answer.

I just looked at radar and sat... we have so many big red blobs out there... are any of them developing? I didn't see much circulation on any of them myself. That one due north of Haiti looks round but couldn't see a swirl.

I will return to see your answers.

Thanks!
Gams
Wind shear will destroy whatever tries to form right now.
Morning all ☺

I see we have a little convection with the CATL wave. Quickscat does not look real impressive though. There is a purple barb with the wave S of the CV islands

When you are put in a difficult situation, you'd be surprised at what you can do. Although there were a few that showed their worst, most of our neighbors showed their best.

This was pretty much the way it was after Hugo. Most everyone pitched in. It was one of the good things to come out of the storm. Amazing to see the potential we have to pull together.



I found that a good sized car"inverter" works as well as a generator in most smaller aplications.


Great poit IS! Had not thought about that. Save the generator and gas for running the fridge and occasionally the ac, use the inverter for pc small light etc. Would be best to buy a separate battery and just switch it out with the one in the car and let it charge there...
LADYWEATHERBUG is right on both counts. 1 storm, and wpb better get your wardwork done NOW. "Afternoon" thunderstorms showed up at 10:30 am yesterday. I saw a 'spout westerday
On 95 northbound, looking east.
I see SJ is here now.. was going to your blog next !!!!
ive found a picture for my history project

here it is :
2cents; I'm 34. The Alsheimers is catching up though.
where is the picture,
HAY STORM thanks for the info I will try it have a good one
SJ, is that anything interesting north of Haiti? or just thunderstorms?
i dont know


well heres the link anyway

Link
If you have 2 cars, use one to charge invertor, the other to jump the first one off if you kill the batt. It's a cheap $20 and up way for those who cant afford a four figure generator.
2cents, no hard feelings. I keep in mind that there are folks from all walks of life on this blog. Some parents wouldn't want their 11 year old reading that kind of stuff. Older folks find that offensive too. We're all smart enough to converse w/o being vulgar.
good morning everyone

How come no one is talking about 98L ??
Have not looked yet gamma, I think the CATL to EATL is likely the area we need to watch though.

that, guess I was worng about that huh :~) added at 1:17GMT

Morning Quickscat Pass
Click image to see larger frame view merged image of this mornings pass.

Purple barb. The CATL looks messy, and there does not appear to be a closed low with the wave that came off yesterday?
750. PBG00
Cause it's kiddie hour in here right now!
I missed getting a picture of the Water spouts of the coast this morning they are gone now at least from were im looking East to the Bahamas Its foggy no to common around here in so Florida
752. PBG00
You must be way south then because it is beautiful here! First nice morning we have had all week.
I sometimes agree. This blog could be and is an excellent educational tool for young folks who may be our next geneeration of hurricane hunters. I do think some kind of internet regulaton is needed.
Time to go mow. Be back in an hour. :)
756. PBG00
It's all good when it is constructive..some of their bantor is distracting.
757. PBG00
my2cents..where in s fl are you?
lol kman :~) I guess no one knew it was there, boy are we slow this morning. Not enough coffee..

Gamma, there is a little model support for that area and as you can see it is now 98l. Looks like it will get taken N. Could be a problem for the extreme NE if it develops but everyone should keep an eye on it just in case with the closer proximity to the coast. This trough should sweep it away though.
Just because it's there doesnt make it right. If my space was giving away kiddie porn or crack would that be okay too? My point is we don't have to contribute to it. Were here because we share a common interest in (tropical) meteorology. Not bodily functions.
Hi SJ

Gee here I am still in NY on vacation and I have to take a break from all that eating and drinking to bring you guys up to date LOL
Im in Boca Delray I guess Right on the line I seen them about a hour ago they were more north yesterday. There were around 3 miles out I would say right out the Boca inlet
lol Thanks kman! ☺

I think with Gamma's question and another 30 minutes I may have gotten there...lol

Kudos to both!
Where is 98L located?
anyway today is my last day in NY as we fly home tomorrow so I am off to do my last tourist bit.
Will check back with you all later

BFN
765. PBG00
Have fun..
your invited to my blog party!
thanks
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:25 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.
lol kman :~) I guess no one knew it was there, boy are we slow this morning. Not enough coffee..

Gamma, there is a little model support for that area and as you can see it is now 98l. Looks like it will get taken N. Could be a problem for the extreme NE if it develops but everyone should keep an eye on it just in case with the closer proximity to the coast. This trough should sweep it away though


....coffee? lol

...big party at Jp's last nite! lol


tons of errands today. Hold the fort down and keep the gate closed!

Morning All,
Thanks gams & SJ for causing me to look outside... I can see the edge of "blobiness" 98L just to the north
Bar. still up at 30... will watch it
CRS
Morning Rick, good to see ya CRS ☺

Just E of the lower Bahamas.

NRL Site Good view of it here.

Find that link and much more from one navigational page.
let us all go to my blog!!!!!!!!!
98LINVEST.20kts-1012mb-253N-738W


this sould help


98L GFS Cyclonephase....There's not much to it.
Link
: WPBHurricane05 the mb is 1009mb not 1012mn for 98L
Taz- That is directly from the navy site.
This blob is a waste of invest numbers.
98L should stay out to sea with the current trof of low right of the eastcoast.
781. PBG00
I would agree...I would have thought the wave off africa catching the models eyes would be 98l.
: WPBHurricane05 i no that i siad 98L has a mb of 1009 not 1012 you most have got in the 1012 when 98L 1st pop up now the mb is a little lower down to 1009 now
I don't even see a low on the QuickScat.
SJ, Thanks!!!!
785. PBG00
Taz..what are you doin up so early on a saturday?
LMAO, 2cents!

...98L there? no hint. Nothing from Doc or the NHC yesterday? Just shows that things can change on a dime and give you nine cents change!

MLC<---------------out to daughter's house to paint! (pray for me) lol
TAFB surface forecast has it at 1014 in 24 hours. Link
788. PBG00
Stay cool.mlc
28/1145 UTC 25.9N 74.0W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean


has for me geting up on sat at this time of day i all way doing i this doing too see whats going on
As i noted with the current trof of low pressure in place this mess is most likely shooting up straight north and out to sea.

fff
Not even listed as a low on the latest surface map. Although I am sure it will be and that it will be discussed in the next TWO. There is some model support for it as of the latest runs though.

wpb, Quickscat may have just missed it off the right edge of that ascending pass?
It is like the new boy on the block. People are upset with him scold him degrade him but let me tell you he is here Welcome no invest.
I agree 23, and hope no one is arguing that point, although the whole E coast should still keep an eye on it. There is almost no way this trough misses it though. I think the more interesting question is if we see a TD or maybe even Chantel out of this?
Needs to stay still could be the answer to a bunch of surfers dreams.
the SDD has put up 98L own Floater

Folks keep in mind the intensity NHC models are most likely not correct as they think there is an area of low pressure there which in my opinion there is not.Pressure's in the area range from 1010-1014mb.The track should be north and out to sea.

The real season starts in 2 weeks or so.
G morning..the GFSx takes it up and away as it elongates along the front..Link
Made my morning 2cents
every 1 go on the chat please we bored
800. PBG00
So..did this just spring up overnight?
801. SLU
203
WHXX01 KWBC 281254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070728 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070728 1200 070729 0000 070729 1200 070730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 73.8W 26.2N 73.6W 27.8N 72.5W 29.4N 71.1W
BAMD 25.3N 73.8W 26.3N 73.0W 28.1N 71.9W 30.3N 70.4W
BAMM 25.3N 73.8W 26.2N 73.6W 28.0N 73.0W 29.8N 71.8W
LBAR 25.3N 73.8W 25.9N 73.4W 27.2N 72.8W 29.1N 72.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070730 1200 070731 1200 070801 1200 070802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.0N 69.3W 34.6N 65.5W 39.4N 61.3W 41.9N 54.3W
BAMD 32.3N 68.4W 36.5N 63.5W 41.8N 58.0W 48.2N 42.8W
BAMM 31.7N 70.2W 35.8N 66.2W 40.6N 62.3W 43.4N 51.1W
LBAR 31.2N 71.3W 35.8N 68.7W 40.4N 61.7W 44.5N 48.0W
SHIP 48KTS 61KTS 65KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 61KTS 65KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 73.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
can people go on the chat please

we are so boredd
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin
Link
804. PBG00
Look..Mit..not when there is something to talk about out there..stay here and learn something..If your here for the weather.
Watching the genesis process when it isn't likely that it will effect land is one of the best ways to do it 23. And actually, for what it is worth, which is not much...the cmc has a fairly organized system grazing the NE. It is an interesting feature to watch. Although I would think shear would start to take effect on it as it gets caught up in between the front and the high.
Weather History
Did you know that...
On this date in 1609, a hurricane tracking near the Bahama Islands crippled The Sea Venture, forcing the people aboard to take shelter on the islands. The captain initially named the islands Somers Islands after himself. Most of the colonists moved to Virgina the next year, but the island still celebrates Somers Day on this date.

All guidance takes it on a journey out to sea.

Enjoy the dry mornings across florida as the afternoon hours look quite stormy.Adrian
SLU, 60kts huh? I don't trust them ships models yet, but hey what do I know. ☺ It will be real interesting to see the GFDL and some more of the HWRF.
I don't think any one disputes it is going out to sea 23. Will it develop? and how strong could it get?
810. CJ5
Morning all.

Well I see an invest was named 98L. The convection look somewhat impressive but that is about it. I guess a it will be the first fish storm of the season lol

Elsewhere in the tropics is the disturbance we were watching yesterday that did have some LLC now at 18/17 but not impressive this am.

37/17 has some convection but that is it. No low or circulation that I can see. Just something to watch.

51/16 is not impressive at all. I am not convinced this will amount to anything.

81/19 is nothing.

Oh wait, the GOM Blob is back. One thing for sure on this is that the blog will quickly jump to 30 pages.

On the horizon I am still thinking the Mali distrubance will be something to watch. Just a hunch as its just another of many of the waves we have seen in the last two weeks.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:59 AM EDT on July 28, 2007. (hide)
Watching the genesis process when it isn't likely that it will effect land is one of the best ways to do it 23. And actually, for what it is worth, which is not much...the cmc has a fairly organized system grazing the NE. It is an interesting feature to watch. Although I would think shear would start to take effect on it as it gets caught up in between the front and the high.

The convection right now is most likely being inhanced by an ULL near in the area but conditions in the area from what i see look to become unfavorable in the coming hours.

This area will likely go poof as Upper level winds most likely will increase.As you stated since were moving into august its always best to keep an eye on the situation in the tropics.I dont expect this one to pull a fast one.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.

I don't think any one disputes it is going out to sea 23. Will it develop? and how strong could it get?

Its not even a T.D, so It would have to be a educated GUESS of how strong it will become.
NHC's take on the CV activity:

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 18W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING COVERING AN AREA ABOUT 4 DEG EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE S END OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-19W.

So 282 hours out (or 11.75 days) before PR. A lot of time for stuff to happen, shear, SAL, ITCZ containment, steering, etc. We have had a lot of false positives in the last month that have ended sheared or dusted or whatever, I am hopeful for more of the same. <--neg. wishcast
NC, I was just pointing out that those will be some of the most interesting parts to discuss regarding 98l.

I agree that conditions should become unfavorable 23, in a few hours, not sure about that, but over the next day or two yes. None the less there is some model support for development and there even seems to be a small area of low shear that rides along with this thing as it moves N. So it makes me question exactly how bad conditions will become.
NorthxCakalaky at 10:00 AM EDT on July 28, 2007.
Weather History
tracking near the Bahama Islands


You're not the first, nor the last to confuse Bahamas with BERMUDA

but it still always amazes me...lol
CRS
Dust shouldnt be a problem since its way west of the mid-Atlantic? Right?
Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 2:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.

NorthxCakalaky at 10:00 AM EDT on July 28, 2007.
Weather History
tracking near the Bahama Islands

You're not the first, nor the last to confuse Bahamas with BERMUDA

but it still always amazes me...lol
CRS


Wasnt confused. Just telling the history section on weatherunderground. > It is now starting to talk more tropical history, probaly since its about late July.
819. d92
I have a question for the forum. What's the best way to look at a mid-level disturbance like the GOM blob in the models. I can see the high vorticity on the GFS 500mb plot; but I can't find a model plot that shows any low pressure. The SLP plots don't show anything at all. I don't see anything on the high-level plots, either. Of course, I can see it on the satellite pictures, especially the infrared. But that doesn't tell me very much about what's really going on with the system. Am I missing something? Which model plot should I be looking at, and what should I look for? Thanks a bunch for any help you can give me.
Storm blows first settlers onto Bermuda Islands
Link
The Sea Venture was bound for Virginia to relieve the starving Jamestown colonists when a hurricane crippled the ship on July 28, 1609.

Many of the 150 men, women and children aboard found safety on the Bermuda Islands, which for a time was called Somers Islands after the ship's captain, Adm. Sir George Somers.

Though the island was uninhabited, Spaniards had visited Bermuda earlier and set ashore wild pigs. The shipwrecked passengers fed on the pigs and the other plentiful game of the island.

Though most of the colonists moved on to Virginia the next year, the island still celebrates Somers Day each July 28, and Bermuda's coat of arms features the wreck of the Sea Venture.

hmmmmmmmmm.....
CRS
D92: Balance as many models as you can. Look for persistence and then outflow,lowering s.s.pressures and don't forget climatology. If youre watching a blob that just came off africa in june-forget it. Check if it's in an area where storms tend to form in that particular period of time.
This web site contains maps of the wind fields of numerous Atlantic hurricanes. The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory provides this information as part of the H*Wind Project. This site contains some cool and highly educational information.

This link shows Rita at landfall. This swath map gives an even better view of where the damaging winds were. Notice how much smaller the windfield is over land than over water. I believe this is mainly due to the boundary layer being deeper over land than water. On any given day you will probably find the wind speeds higher at the coast than inland. You can look at the clouds in the sky and see that they are moving faster than the air at the ground. Tall buildings will experience much stronger winds in a hurricane than houses. Etc.

Here is Katrina well after landfall. You can easily see how much stronger the eastern side of the storm is than the left.

Here is Jeanne before landfall in 2004. The windfield is obviously assymetric. Here is Jeanne again after landfall. The strongest surface winds remain offshore even though the center is well inland. The drop in wind speed from water to land is striking.

Another cool web site is this one on Hurricane Andrew as it struck the Florida coast. Here are pictures of extreme
damage. Fortunately, only three category five hurricanes have struck the U.S. in over 100 years.



Bappit: Are you taking into account that forward motion increases winds inthe Right front Quadrant due to momentum.i.e Hurricane w/ 100 mph winds moving at 15 mph will have 115 on right front quadrant
Posted By: bappit at 3:45 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.
This web site contains maps of the wind fields of numerous Atlantic hurricanes. The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory provides this information as part of the H*Wind Project. This site contains some cool and highly educational information.

Babbit - Very cool link. One thing though that is neglected is the effect of tornados. Some storms spawn more than others, for example Frances spawned many, with the paths of two in my small beachside town of Satellite Beach alone evident from the swaths of severely damaged and blown-off roofs


This link shows Rita at landfall. This swath map gives an even better view of where the damaging winds were. Notice how much smaller the windfield is over land than over water. I believe this is mainly due to the boundary layer being deeper over land than water.


No doubt that plays a role, as the difference from being on the beach or standing atop the backing dunes vs. being on the landside of the dunes is often very apparent. One missing piece though is in very strong hurricanes the flying debris becomes the main mode of wind destruction as you work your way inland from the beach (I.e. Hugo).

Except for these couple of factors not shown, very good information.
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 4:10 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.
Bappit: Are you taking into account that forward motion increases winds inthe Right front Quadrant due to momentum.i.e Hurricane w/ 100 mph winds moving at 15 mph will have 115 on right front quadrant

The forward speed of the hurricane is very important in another respect as well. I once went through a derecho in the midwest with winds similar to a CAT 1 hurricane for only about a half hour, but the onset of the winds was so sudden that the blowdown of deciduous trees was tremendous, and significant fraction of all trees were blown down or severely damaged (causing further damage as they fell). I think a slow-moving Cat 1 does less damage in this respect because the slow steady onset of winds gives the leaves time to be stripped away and shredded, giving the tree a better chance of standing due to decreased wind resistance.

Charley was similar in that it was so fast-moving the winds came on suddenly, taking out a lot of trees such as live oaks and other deciduous trees, which of course caused more damage as they fell onto houses, cars, power lines, etc.
827. RL3AO
Hello hello hello. When I heard invest I didn't think Bahamas.
Posted By: RL3AO at 5:28 PM GMT on July 28, 2007.
Hello hello hello. When I heard invest I didn't think Bahamas.

Me either R3AO. I am having a hard time imagining much of a future for INVEST AL982007. With the unseasonal mid-upper level trough dropping due south over the FL peninsula and the Huge ULL to the NE, escape to the north seems practically cut off without getting heavily sheared, I am having a hard time envisaging 98L being anything more than a transient feature. Besides, whatever cyclonic circulation it has seems to be more at the mid-levels in the visible loops, and the convection has more of a comma-shape right now. Maybe I am missing something obvious...but so far this season the last few namings of the Invests have seemed to be a death knell for any tropical system.

Let's see what happens tonight.
New Blog...LOL spending the last hour talking to myself again :-)