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Spring snowstorm adds to flooding potential for the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:52 PM GMT on March 24, 2011

A major spring snowstorm dumped heavy snow in excess of six inches over a wide swath of the Upper Midwest this week, adding to a snowpack that is already near or in excess of record levels over Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This is bad news for residents in flood-prone areas of the Upper Midwest, as the new storm added more than half an inch of melted rainfall equivalent to the record wet snowpack. When all that snow melts in April, we can expect major and possibly record flooding for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and the Upper Mississippi River north of St. Louis, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Their March Spring Flood Outlook released last week warned: A large swath of the North Central United States is at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring. Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation have left soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. National Weather Service models show this year's snowpack contains a water content ranked among the highest of the last 60 years, which is similar to the past two years. This threat area extends from northeastern Montana through Wisconsin and along the Mississippi River south to St. Louis. For the third consecutive year, forecasters predict major flooding along the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other areas of the Midwest primed for major flooding include Devils Lake in North Dakota, the Milk River in Northeastern Montana, the James and Big Sioux Rivers in South Dakota, the Minnesota River, and the Mississippi River from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minnesota, downstream to St. Louis.


Figure 1. U.S. spring 2011 flood risk. Image credit: NWS.


Figure 2. NOAA's latest significant river flood outlook shows that spring flooding is already occurring over South Dakota and on the Mississippi River near its junction with the Ohio River, but is not yet widespread across the Upper Midwest.

There is a huge amount of snow on the ground in North Dakota along the tributaries of the Red River, thanks to fall precipitation that was 150% - 300% of normal, and winter snows that have dumped up to 400% more precipitation than usual. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 4 - 6 inches of rain. If heavy rains occur at the same time that the snow melts, there is the potential for the greatest flood in history to affect the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, the largest and third largest cities in North Dakota. NWS is giving a 35% chance that Fargo will see its greatest flood in history this spring, up from the 20% chance they gave in their February spring flood outlook.

The situation is similar in Minnesota, which has received about double its normal precipitation over the past 3 to 4 months, resulting in the 5th snowiest winter on record in Minneapolis. Snow depths are in excess of 20 inches over wide swaths of of the state, and this snow has a very high water content equivalent to 4 - 6 inches of rain. NWS is giving a 95% chance that the Mississippi River at St. Paul will exceed major flood stage this spring.

In South Dakota, heavy snows this winter have also left a snowpack with a high water content over the northeast corner of the state. The NWS is predicting a 25% chance that the the James River at Huron, SD will reach its highest flood height in history, and a 50% chance for the Big Sioux River at Brookings, SD.


Figure 3. The snow water equivalent of the Upper Midwest's snowpack as of March 24, 2011. Large sections of Minnesota and North Dakota have the equivalent of 3.9 - 5.9 inches of rain (purple colors) stored in their snowpack. Image credit: NWS/NOHRSC.

When will all this flooding occur?
The latest guidance from the GFS model predicts winter-like conditions will persist over the Upper Midwest for the next week, with no major storms for the region through early next week. Late next week, there is the potential for a snowstorm that could bring an additional 0.5 - 1" of melted equivalent snow, though this is very uncertain at this point. The first chance of a major thaw will not occur until Sunday, April 3. This will give some time for the current pulse of flood waters generated during last week's warm spell over South Dakota and southern Minnesota to move downstream, and makes the peak of this year's spring flood unlikely to occur until at least the second week of April. Looking back at past great floods in the Upper Midwest, the record 2009 Red River flood peaked on March 28 in Fargo. The great 1997 Red River flood that devastated Grand Forks, causing $3.5 billion in damage, crested on April 18. St. Paul's greatest flood in history crested on April 19, 1965. I expect this year's peak flood will most likely arrive during the 3rd week of April.

Mostly offshore winds expected over Japan for the next week
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will mostly head eastwards out to sea over the next week, thanks to high pressure that will dominate Japan's weather. Latest trajectory plots using NOAA's HYSPLIT model do not show air from the Fukushima plant heading towards Tokyo over the next four days.

Jeff Masters
Not liking Spring
Not liking Spring
10 inches of snow today. Not good if you're a robin.
Spring?
Spring?
Spring?

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

When trying to post an image, and you get the red x instead, what is the most likely thing you're not doing correctly?

you have to copy and paste image code into box after you click on image bar make sure the complete address and size are embeded with in the box when you copy do not include http:// that is added for you in the image box remember only one http://
1006. flsky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Incredible image - is this why my FM radio reception has been so crappy lately?
lOOKS LIKE SOMEONE IS TRYING TO CRASH THE SITE AGAIN....
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Euro! Looks like we are finally going to get a little rain in Florida finally. It is very dry.


Unfortunately for you, the real heavy rain will probably be further north up in Central and North Florida, my area. That's where the front will be stalling and the most lift and convergence will occur. At least that's what is expected anyway.

Hopefully though, you can get some sort of significant lifting to occur down there in South Florida that isn't in the forecast. That does sometimes happen, and there will be very high moisture of course down there to work with upcoming this week.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Here in Florida, that is not a very familiar sound, but its not that we don't have tornadoes, we have lots of them, we just don't have sirens or basements! lol

Good thing most of our large amount of tornadoes here are either F0 to F1, stronger tornadoes F3 or greater are a lot less common here than in the plains.
1010. flsky
To the person who said we had the same computer, plus the same computer settings, the other night -- would you please tell what your Java settings are? Thanks!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you have to copy and paste image code into box after you click on image bar make sure the complete address and size are embeded with in the box when you copy do not include http:// that is added for you in the image box remember only one http://


OK......when my head quits spinning, I'll try harder......SHOWOFF !!!! :) thanks
1013. flsky
Quoting RTLSNK:


The "Canadian Sphynx" is recognized by Cat Fancy Associations as being a unique and healthy breed. One of them won the TICA International Cat of the Year Award in 2006. They are from Toronto, Canada, eh?
(Inside joke for Orca and Keeper) :)

Looks cold and with tears in his eyes.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Guys some of the models are showing over 10" of rain in C FL by next Saturday. Amazing to see this much rain in forecast for this time of year. NWS of melbourne is saying temps aloft at 500 milibars is forecast to -12 to -14 on Monday. Basically that means C FL could see severe wx Monday with such steep lapse rates. Monday thru Wed looks to be very wet in C FL then summertime seabreeze storms on Thursday and Friday/Saturday could have flooding type rains across all of the FL Penisula.

P.S You guys in GA,AL,and SC stay safe and take cover when a warning is sounded.


Yeah the computer models are going to town next week here in Florida. I would love to see all this crazy weather, but the models may be overdoing it a bit, time will tell.

But, if models continue to show what they are showing, and they do verify, we are gonna have an unusually exciting week of weather for late March/early April :)
Kyodo: 10 mil. times normal level of radioactivity in water at No. 2 reactor
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
test


Test complete. We are going live in 3....2...
1017. flsky
If this plays out, I would love it!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah the computer models are going to town next week here in Florida. I would love to see all this crazy weather, but the models may be overdoing it a bit, time will tell.

But, if models continue to show what they are showing, and they do verify, we are gonna have an unusually exciting week of weather for late March/early April :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: 10 mil. times normal level of radioactivity in water at No. 2 reactor


I would guess that suggests the core is approaching full melt down? No. 3 reactor has the plutonium, correct?
19P BUNE

Quoting flsky:
If this plays out, I would love it!



Yeah me too!

Without adding any bias of what I want, at the very least much of Central and North Florida has multiple opportunities for some good beneficial rain. As to how much, we'll find out in time. I'm expecting at least some heavy rain for many of us.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would guess that suggests the core is approaching full melt down? No. 3 reactor has the plutonium, correct?

Well, No. 2 is the reactor for which a core breach is suspected, and the one for which a large vertical crack has been seen. I'm no nuclear physicist, but I'd say if the water is that radioactive, there's a good chance there is a serious breach...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, No. 2 is the reactor for which a core breach is suspected, and the one for which a large vertical crack has been seen. I'm no nuclear physicist, but I'd say if the water is that radioactive, there's a good chance there is a serious breach...


I just heard, on the link above, that nuclear fission is possibly happening in reactor #2. They say that the radiation that is leaking from #2 has a very short half life. Let us keep our fingers crossed that this situation does not degrade further.
1024. Patrap




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1144 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2011



Long term...
long term forecast still one of very low confidence. 12z GFS
solution significantly out of step with 06z GFS...a majority of
00z GFS members...and the 00z and 12z European model (ecmwf). There is some support
for 12z GFS by the 12z Gem...but a slow moving strong closed low
moving along the Gulf Coast is climatologically not favored. 12z
European model (ecmwf) does seem to fit somewhat with the previous forecast
solution...so will not make any changes for the extended forecast
in this package. 35
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: 10 mil. times normal level of radioactivity in water at No. 2 reactor


We have added some zeros.

10^6.

I hope we don't see more. Those thousand-fold jumps are a bit disconcerting. If I were in charge of this mess, there would be men with machine guns stationed in TEPCO's offices making very sure everyone understood how important this is. The US military should be invited in to direct the crisis if no one else is willing to step in.

The US Navy and Air Force no doubt have a lot of information by now, but they are not sharing either. If anything really concerns me right now, it is that. Where is the Department of Defense on the reactor crisis? Not front and center.

Please note carefully: this is not a political comment - I am very concerned about the awful flow of information in a very serious crisis. And now Japan is pointing the finger at TEPCO and basically saying: "it's all yours." That is not the way to run this particular operation, in my humble opinion. There is a serious crisis management problem, and what a poor choice of disasters for it.

WTO
1026. Patrap
RTnews: Radiation levels in the sea near Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant have spiked to more than 1,000 times the norm. It's been over two weeks now since the devastating earthquake and tsunami which caused the accident at the facility. The official death toll from the disaster stands at over 10,000 people, with many more missing or homeless. Emergency teams are still struggling to control the situation at the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant. Several workers sustained radiation burns while installing cables as part of efforts to restore the critical cooling systems. Nuclear energy experts say the damage to the site is having a dangerous effect on the environment and people's health.


1027. Patrap
Workers evacuated as radiation levels climb

Updated 15 minutes ago
Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant

The Japanese Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says radiation levels in the ocean pose no threat to marine life or food safety. (www.greenpacks.org)

* Related Story: Uncertainty as Japan's radiation levels surge
* Related Story: Japan's PM says nuke situation dire
* Related Story: Reactor workers exposed to radioactive water

The operator of Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant says the radioactivity in the water at the No. 2 reactor is 10 million times the usual level.

TEPCO says workers trying to cool the reactor have been have been evacuated from its turbine building.

Radiation levels in the sea off the Fukushima Daiichi plant are also on the rise as Japanese engineers struggle to pump radioactive water from the station.

The offshore radiation levels have now risen to 1,850 times normal from 1,250 on Saturday, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said.

Senior agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama says the radiation particles will be dispersed and diluted, posing no threat to marine life or food safety.

Meanwhile, Yukiya Amano, director-general of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned Japan's nuclear emergency could go on for weeks, if not months.

"This is a very serious accident by all standards. It is not yet over," he told the New York Times.

Mr Amano, a former Japanese diplomat who visited Japan after the quake, says authorities are still unsure about whether the plant's reactor cores and spent fuel are covered with the water needed to cool them.

He told the newspaper he saw a few "positive signs" with the restoration of some electric power to the plant.

"More efforts should be done to put an end to the accident," he said, adding he was not criticising Japan's response.

The IAEA says it has sent two additional teams to Japan over the past two days, one to help in monitoring radiation and one to assess food contamination.

Engineers trying to stabilise the plant have to pump out radioactive water found in buildings housing three of the six reactors.

On Thursday, three workers were taken to hospital from reactor No. 3 after stepping in water with radiation levels 10,000 times higher than usually found in a reactor.

That raised fears the core's container could be damaged.

An official from plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) told a news conference experts still had to determine where to put some of the contaminated water while engineers were trying to fully restore the plant's power.

Two of the plant's reactors are now seen as safe but the other four are volatile, occasionally emitting steam and smoke.

However, the nuclear safety agency said on Saturday that temperature and pressure in all reactors had stabilised.

The government has said the situation was nowhere near to being resolved, although it was not deteriorating.

"We are preventing the situation from worsening," chief cabinet secretary Yukio Edano said.

"But there is still no room for complacency."

So far, no significant levels of radiation have been detected beyond the vicinity of the plant in Fukushima.

The crisis at the plant, 240 kilometres north of Tokyo, has overshadowed a relief and recovery effort from the magnitude 9.0 quake and the huge tsunami it triggered on March 11 that left more than 27,100 people dead or missing in north-east Japan.

- Reuters
Ouchies :(

From Link:

...the level of exposure of their legs was estimated to be from 2 to 6 Sv ... (my emphasis)

From Link - that may have a 5 - 50% Mortality Rate.

:(
In honor of EarthHour

Given that load-matching on EarthHour scale necessitates shutting down then restarting powerplants -- and such cycling is HIGHLY inefficient, while also causing an excess of equipment wear&tear -- I find myself wondering whether the net effect is good or bad.
Quoting chimera245:
Ouchies :(

From Link:

...the level of exposure of their legs was estimated to be from 2 to 6 Sv ... (my emphasis)

From Link - that may have a 5 - 50% Mortality Rate.

:(


ouchies is right 2000 to 6000 mSv

I'm not sure how much more serious than that it can get. What was their exposure time?
...the level of exposure of their legs was estimated to be from 2 to 6 Sv ... (my emphasis)that may have a 5 - 50% Mortality Rate.
:(


The Wiki dose rates are for whole body - your torso. The workers were exposed on the lower legs. Whole body dose was probably about 5% of the leg dose, well below 1 Sv. Still a serious exposure, their legs are likely to be badly damaged, but the workers should survive.
Health effects depend on what kind of radiation:
Some reports suggested that the skin radiation exposure amounted to 2000 to 6000 millisieverts [2to6Sv] ...that much full-body gamma radiation over the course of an hour would be deadly.
However, in this case the burns were due to shorter-range beta radiation. The gamma radiation exposure was estimated at 170 to 180 millisieverts.

Spring forward and fall back
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: 10 mil. times normal level of radioactivity in water at No. 2 reactor


Radiation soars at Japan nuclear plant

Very high levels of radiation detected in water leaking from a reactor at a nuclear plant in Japan have dealt a new setback to efforts to bring the stricken facility under control.

The operator of the Fukushima Daiichi plant said on Sunday it had detected radiation levels 10 million times higher than usual in leaked water at reactor two, as white steam continued to rise from the tsunami-battered facility.

The radiation level was 1000 millisieverts an hour, making it too dangerous to remain at the reactor turbine building and forcing the evacuation of workers there, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said.

'It is an extremely high figure,' nuclear safety agency spokesman Hidehiko Nishiyama said of the latest reading. 'There is a high possibility that (the water) came from the reactor.'

A single dose of 1000 millisieverts can cause temporary radiation sickness, including nausea and vomiting. An exposure of 100 millisieverts per year is considered the lowest level at which an increase in cancer risk is evident.

Amid concerns that fuel-rod vessels or their valves and pipes are leaking, chief government spokesman Yukio Edano admitted progress at the site was slow.

'We'd like to be able to give a clear outline as to when this will be resolved,' Edano told public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.

'But I can't be any more optimistic than what the reality of it is.'

There was also a warning from the head of the world's atomic watchdog agency that Japan's nuclear emergency could go on for weeks, if not months, given the enormous damage to the plant, The New York Times reported.

Japanese authorities were still unsure about whether the reactor cores and spent fuel were covered with the water needed to cool them, Yukiya Amano, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the newspaper.

Urgent efforts to pump away pools of highly radioactive water near the reactors began on Sunday, after several workers suffered radiation burns while installing cables as part of work to restore critical reactor cooling systems.

The incident has heaped yet more pressure on under-fire TEPCO after the workers, aged in their 20s and 30s, were exposed to highly radioactive water while wearing inadequate safety gear.

Edano pledged more effort would be made to improve the reporting of developments at the plant amid growing public unease over a flow of seemingly erratic and opaque information.

'We will have more detailed monitoring in high-risk areas and increase the capability of making forecasts so as not to be late in tackling this problem,' he said.

Slow progress at the Fukushima site has added to the gloom hanging over the country since a 9.0-magnitude quake struck on March 11, sending a huge tsunami crashing into the northeast coast in Japan's worst disaster since World War II.

The wave easily overwhelmed the world's biggest sea defences and erased entire towns.

The confirmed death toll stood at 10,489 on Sunday, with 16,621 missing and 2777 injured, the National Police Agency said.

The tsunami knocked out cooling systems for the six reactors at the Fukushima plant, leading to suspected partial meltdowns in three of them. Hydrogen explosions and fires have also ripped through the facility.

A worst-case scenario feared at the Number Three reactor is that the fuel inside the reactor core - a volatile uranium-plutonium mix - has already started to burn its way through its steel pressure vessel.

Fire engines have hosed huge amounts of seawater onto the plant in a bid to keep the fuel rods inside reactor cores and pools from being exposed to the air, and prevent a full meltdown.

Several hundred metres offshore in the Pacific Ocean, levels of radioactive iodine some 1850 times the legal limit were reported on Sunday, up from 1250 times on Saturday, TEPCO said.

Japan's nuclear safety agency has ruled out an immediate threat to marine life and seafood safety, saying the radiation would be quickly dispersed by tides, amid some signs of gradual progress at the site.

The nuclear safety agency on Sunday said workers planned to start using electric pumps instead of fire trucks for cooling operations at reactor Number One.

High-voltage electric cables have been reconnected to the reactors and power has been partially restored to enable lighting in some reactor control rooms.

Worried about the salt buildup in the crippled plant, engineers have started pumping fresh water into some of the reactors. The US military has supported the effort by sending two full water barges from a naval base near Tokyo.

Radioactive vapour from the plant has contaminated farm produce and dairy products in the region, leading to shipment halts in Japan as well as the US, the European Union, China and a host of other nations.

Singapore extended a ban on food imports from Japan on Saturday, suspending imports of all fruit and vegetables from the whole Kanto region, a large area including greater Tokyo.

Higher than normal radiation was last week detected in tap water in and around Tokyo, some 250 kilometres from the plant, leading authorities at one stage to warn against using it for baby milk formula.

Japan has encouraged those living up to 10km beyond the plant's 20km exclusion zone to leave. The 30km zone is below the 80km advised by the US.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kyodo: 10 mil. times normal level of radioactivity in water at No. 2 reactor


To give an idea of how bad this is, according to CNN the isotope involved is I-134 which has about a 1 hour half-life. With that short a half life, ALL of the I-134 would be gone in 24 hours. That means it is still being produced from fission reactions inside the system or the levels were insanely high a few days ago (think trillions of Sv/hr dose rates)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, No. 2 is the reactor for which a core breach is suspected, and the one for which a large vertical crack has been seen. I'm no nuclear physicist, but I'd say if the water is that radioactive, there's a good chance there is a serious breach...


A few days ago people were saying radiation at 10 times normal was OK.

Next we here that radiation at 1000s times above normal is not even as much as a chest x ray,

Then we here that neutron beams have been reported and monitored emitted from the site, ''they don't come from workers flashlighs in dark reactor rooms.''

Then we have a mere million times normal radiation but ''no worries'' just carry on but don't drink the water?

This morning for us here we understand that the levels can be measured in 10s of millions of times normal!! {Makes you wonder who set the NORMAL?}

Last night I watched a physics professor giving an interview in which he implied that there might be fission reactions still going on unchecked.

What next? Explosions and glows in the dark?
Anyone watched the Formula 1 race in Melbourne?
If yes,what you think about it?
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Anyone watched the Formula 1 race in Melbourne?
If yes,what you think about it?

Yes i watched, it got a bit boring. I love the F1.
Hi,

45 with light rain on the Carolina Coast this morning .
Quoting PlazaRed:
What next? Explosions and glows in the dark?

Possibly. And if/when that happens, you can rest assured that TEPCO's very tired spokespeople will dutifully appear right there on NHK telling us that things are fine, it's really not a big deal, the situation is under control. Even if you live within a few hundred kilometers of the plant, following a few very simple rules will keep you safe: just stay inside for the next several years, wear an air-right decontamination suit at all times, avoid any eating or drinking, try to breathe as little as possible, and don't ever plan on having kids.
Acropolis Update!

A leading Scientist said that there is not much of a problem with Plutonium as it releases its 'radiation' very slowly having a half life of about 24,000 years, they omitted to mention that its very poisonous as well and if you scatter the planet with it, its going to still kill people/things a few hundred thousand years from now.
They added that the short life radioactive isotopes are much 'worse' as they release their radioactivity very quickly in a few hours or days so keep your umbrellas handy, when you go out foraging for nuts and grubs, to ward of this little nasty for the next week or so until the long term lurkers get blasted out and about.
Meanwhile, is there any rumour in the truth that Japanese car manufactures have temporarily halted production so as to install Geiger counters in all new models to cu out engines before you get too close to hot spots?
North FL and S GA is going to get rocked today! I would not be surprised if a moderate risk area gets issued for the Jacksonville area. Be careful and if a tornado warning is issued then take cover.
1042. aquak9
g'morning dayshift

I tried to read back and get an update- but I got stuck on Keeper's linkin park- so we are all doom?

my spinach is not glowing yet, actually it is growing pretty and healthy

I am about as confused about the reactors as I am about the rain- is it all a dream- I think the Delsym still has me in it's clutches
1043. IKE
5 day QPF....


1037. I think the race was amazing.New rules are very good(maybe DRS is too weak,but maybe start-finish straight on Albert Park is too short).Good debut for S.Perez(why he pitted only once???). V.Petrov-best performance in career and 3rd place.LotusRenault is really good(Kubica will probably fight for championship with this car and his talent)
Red Bull-ultralight KERS is amazingly helpful.Other drivers also performed good.
Next race? Sepang in Malaysia-amazing circuit and possible monsoonal rains give a chance for lot of good emotions. Can't wait for 8 April!
From Miami NWS Discussion

Extended Period...GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF/N
FLA WHILE THE ECMWF ROTATES THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FORMER LEADS TO QUITE UNSETTLED WEATHER FRI/EARLY SAT WHILE THE
LATTER ALLOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MAYBE NOT AS VOCIFEROUS.
AT THIS TIME AWAITING A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN TO HANG MY HAT UPON
TO WARRANT A CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

For West Palm Beach:

1046. aquak9
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.
1047. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.
lol

Just trying to give you hope!
Quoting aquak9:
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.


I thought the same thing. Aquak9 be careful as severe wx will move your this afternoon. Nothing now but storms will fire fast come early afternoon as your mid level temps are in the -13 range.
1049. aquak9
Rasta- I know you mean well...but PLEASE do not TEASE me with rain and severe. I am like addicted to that stuff. There will be no severe over my roof, not today, not this week.

Altho my dewpoint and temp are close, I simply do not feel that "heebie jeebie" feeling I get when there's gonna be a severe outbreak. B'sides...it just never gets like that here. That last 2 times that SPC put me under a mod risk? I did not even see a DROP of rain.
Quoting aquak9:
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.

Yeah, they used vociferous--but neither correctly nor in the proper context. Loss of 15 yards for inappropriate use of a thesaurus...

The Delsym wearing off yet? ;-)
1051. aquak9
Nea...I did not realize I took a RECREATIONAL DOSE, ok?

ya'll enjoy the day, peace man, right on.
1052. sotv
Quoting NWwatcher:


To give an idea of how bad this is, according to CNN the isotope involved is I-134 which has about a 1 hour half-life. With that short a half life, ALL of the I-134 would be gone in 24 hours. That means it is still being produced from fission reactions inside the system or the levels were insanely high a few days ago (think trillions of Sv/hr dose rates)


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....
Quoting aquak9:
Nea...I did not realize I took a RECREATIONAL DOSE, ok?

ya'll enjoy the day, peace man, right on.


lol - morning Aqua. we are all doom.
1054. Jax82
Sure doesnt look like rain today looking outside now, 70 degrees, not a cloud in the sky. Should be a good beach day even if a forecast for rain!
Morning all, hope everyones enjoying their weekend.

I just took a quick look at the SST's in the ATL. For the most part - they're average to above average particularly in the GOMEX, while the Caribbean remains pretty cool compared to 2010.


If I had to determine an 'analog year' just based on the SST patterns in place - I'd go with 2008. Major difference though is off the Caribbean islands.
Quoting sotv:


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....


I've heard that line before. And others like it. I am assuming the worst until somebody says or does something sensible to cause me to change my mind. "Confusion" or "errors" won't do it. That quota has been used up.

WTO
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, hope everyones enjoying their weekend.

I just took a quick look at the SST's in the ATL. For the most part - they're average to above average particularly in the GOMEX, while the Caribbean remains pretty cool compared to 2010.


If I had to determine an 'analog year' just based on the SST patterns in place - I'd go with 2008.


I have really missed those SST maps. I look forward to seeing hundreds more as we go forward into the season. j/k, although there is some truth to it.

Edit: it seems the warm temperatures extend significantly further north in the MDR than at this time in 2008. There is much more to it than SST, of course.
Quoting sotv:


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.
msnbc.msn.com:

BREAKING NEWS: Operators of Japan nuclear plant say huge spike in radiation levels was a mistake


I love the language. It was definitely a mistake, but were the readings inaccurate?

Those examining the injured workers estimated that they had been exposed to 2 to 6 Sv. That is on the basis of a physical exam and the damage to the skin. Not sure what kind of (significant) error can be made there.

It was stated that the radiation level at the water surface was 1000 mSv. At that rate, and given the 250 mSv maximum annual dosage, an unexposed worker could work for max 15 minutes to stay below 250 mSv. If there is external contamination (there will be) the time will be shorter to allow for decontamination of garments, skin scrubbing etc. within the safe exposure window.

More bodies buried. They even tried to sow confusion on which reactor was having the problems. "It's no. 3 ... no, sorry, it's no. 2." I'm suspecting that the truth will arrive long after the problems are experienced going forward. Unless we see something REALLY blatant, like a massive steam explosion. Just like BP, they will hide it and worry more about the financial consequences than about the unfolding disaster itself. Or so it seems.

WTO
growing crisis? cnn been calling the fuji gig for two weeks now if it was corn it would be 10 ft tall.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.


I like that "slightly" that they slid in there. Maybe it's only 9.5 million times more radioactive.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
msnbc.msn.com:

BREAKING NEWS: Operators of Japan nuclear plant say huge spike in radiation levels was a mistake


I love the language. It was definitely a mistake, but were the readings inaccurate?

Those examining the injured workers estimated that they had been exposed to 2 to 6 Sv. That is on the basis of a physical exam and the damage to the skin. Not sure what kind of (significant) error can be made there.

It was stated that the radiation level at the water surface was 1000 mSv. At that rate, and given the 250 mSv maximum annual dosage, an unexposed worker could work for max 15 minutes to stay below 250 mSv. If there is external contamination (there will be) the time will be shorter to allow for decontamination of garments, skin scrubbing etc. within the safe exposure window.

More bodies buried. They even tried to sow confusion on which reactor was having the problems. "It's no. 3 ... no, sorry, it's no. 2." I'm suspecting that the truth will arrive long after the problems are experienced going forward. Unless we see something REALLY blatant, like a massive steam explosion. Just like BP, they will hide it and worry more about the financial consequences than about the unfolding disaster itself. Or so it seems.

WTO

WTO




CRAZY
owhl here ya are Robin Eugene Rudabager Frances Ugene Baker with a two headed two tone triple g scream!
1066. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.


Maybe they just wanted to sound less "vociferous"
1067. aquak9
oh no!! it's the two-tone talk guy again!!

don't worry- just like all the oil in the gulf of mexico, all this radiation will magicly disappear, too.

how do you spell magicly? ok, nevermind

wait- the oil was never there in the first place, right? no...uhm, oil is good for us. So is radiation.

This really is BP all over again. First my seafood, now my spinach.


That dry line is exploding........be careful people. Have a good day! Its gonna be rocking it appears.
1069. RTLSNK
Have rain, willing to share, call 1-800-wet-lawn, bring large rain barrels. :)
Shutting Hal down once again. :(
If anyone wants to see the weather around Japan, go here, select 24hrs then press play.
1071. beell
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL AND WILL VARY LOCALLY...DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES AND FORTUITOUS SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS


That's just what I was thinking.

Frontal zone/outflow boundary on visible fromSC/Central GA and on into LA.






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION
EWD TO CSTL GA/NRN FL/SRN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S...ON SRN SIDE OF
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER CNTRL CANADA. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER
CO SHOULD REACH ERN KS/NE OK BY THIS EVE...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING
SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E INTO ERN KY/ERN TN BY 12Z MON.
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT...AT BEST...
ONLY VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
AFFECT REGIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH /I.E...FROM E TX AND LA TO THE
GA-SC CST/.

AT LWR LVLS...FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM
SRN SC/CNTRL GA WSW INTO SRN LA/SE TX EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY S
THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHALLOW BUT VERY COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
MS VLY/GRT LKS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. A WEAK WAVE/
INFLECTION MAY PERSIST OVER GA TODAY...NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
.

...CNTRL GULF CST INTO AL/GA/SRN SC AND FAR NRN FL...
SVR THREAT AND STORM COVERAGE EACH SHOULD MAXIMIZE THIS AFTN ALONG
AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING AND RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ SHOULD
YIELD MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF STG MID AND UPR-LVL FLOW /50-60
KTS AT 500 MB AND 90-110 KTS AT 250 MB/ WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE WINDS FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION TO EPISODIC STORMS ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A BAND OF
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER S WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
.. SUPPORTED BY
925-850 MB CONFLUENCE FROM SE AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO S
GA.

WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH 40-50 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR LIKELY TO BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
. THIS MAY FOSTER THREAT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. TORNADOES
ALSO MAY OCCUR. BUT GIVEN OVERALL SETUP...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL AND WILL VARY LOCALLY...DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES AND FORTUITOUS SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE
SAVANNAH RVR VLY OF ERN GA/SC. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LVL
STABILIZATION.

....ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY...
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF CO UPR IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR AND
LOW-LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO ERN AR/NRN LA. CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML WILL
ENHANCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
...WITH POCKETS/STREAKS OF 1500 J/KG
MUCAPE POSSIBLE. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL.

...MID/UPR TX GULF CST... A VERY CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR SFC-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST...WHERE A SECONDARY BRANCH OF
LOW-LVL INFLOW WILL IMPINGE ON WRN END OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF EML CAP AND THE REGION/S DISTANCE FROM CNTRL PLNS
UPR IMPULSE...LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT ATTM LOOKS LOW.

HOWEVER...REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF
LOW SVR PROBABILITIES IN LATER OTLKS.

..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/27/2011
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)

Morning all. I would have been in here sooner, but got distracted watching a Tennessee Williams film with Ron Howard's daughter in it. I laughed till I cried... though somehow I don't think that was TWs intended audience reaction...

Oh, WX..... weather's great here today.... who knows how long it will last ....

I'm out for the nonce... have a great Sunday...
Good morning, we have another beautiful spring day in Florida until the much-needed rain arrives this week.

610 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY...MOVING TO SOUTH GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO AUGUSTA.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG A CARROLLTON TO EATONTON LINE...
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. AS A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ALABAMA...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000 TO 2000 WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-1 ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

$$




Quoting Skyepony:
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)


Just one of a thousand mixed signals. I just read that a mere one-half liter of the seawater off of Fukushima contains as much radioactive iodine as a person can be safely exposed to in an entire year--followed by the TEPCO people saying, well, yes, that may be true, but it'll be diluted, so there's no need to worry.

Diluted. You know, just like the oil from the BP spill. Just like the mercury from every coal-fired power plant in the world.

To echo aqua: there are soundings of BP in TEPCO's dealings. Early on it was obvious that tens of thousands of barrels of oil were spewing from the Deepwater Horizon well, yet every time some scientists would come up with a very educated estimate, BP would respond by syaing, "Oh, that's too high; it's really no more than a few gallons per day at most." Now every time some high radioactivity reading is released to the public, TEPCO is right there to deny and/or downplay.

It's a depressingly--and predictably--familiar scene.

Wow, 94 degrees in Waco, TX yesterday.
Looks like CycloneOz is having fun these days. Those are pretty cool shows, Oz!
Found this website that has updates on the nuclear situation in Japan.
There is snow on the ground in Luray,VA. This is WRONG. It is an Immutable Law of Nature that it may not snow in the Shenandoah Valley after St. Patty's Day.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
There is snow on the ground in Luray,VA. This is WRONG. It is an Immutable Law of Nature that it may not snow in the Shenandoah Valley after St. Patty's Day.


It is the 27th of March in Central Virginia ----- it is 29° and it is snowing.

Go figure!

Have 2 inches on the ground and expect another inch before noon.

Good grief.

I am not really in Dutch Harbor --- am I?

Nope -- Dutch is warmer and it isn't snowing.

LOL What crazy weather we are having.
End times

Lookin forward to cane season and regular F5 events (in the blog)

maybe a Weatherstudent / JFV sighting

Quoting Skyepony:
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)

Quoting AussieStorm:
Found this website that has updates on the nuclear situation in Japan.


Seems like one of the water systems that directly supply coolant sprung a leak with radiation levels that high.
Complete Update





Germany is way ahead of everyone else in renewable energy:

" In Germany, the installed capacity of renewable power stations has increased significantly during the last years. Since 2000 wind power has the highest capacity of all renewables although hydroelectric power stations normally have more full load hours per year.

Photovoltaic installations have also grown rapidly during the last years. The total installed capacity of power stations in Germany has risen due to the newly installed renewable power stations whereas the capacity of conventional power station has decreased since beginning of the 1990s.

The renewable share of the total capacity has increase more than six times since beginning of the 1990s and reached double-digit numbers. Since the year 2004 the installed renewable capacity in Germany is higher than the nuclear power capacity. "

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

Just one of a thousand mixed signals. I just read that a mere one-half liter of the seawater off of Fukushima contains as much radioactive iodine as a person can be safely exposed to in an entire year--followed by the TEPCO people saying, well, yes, that may be true, but it'll be diluted, so there's no need to worry.

Diluted. You know, just like the oil from the BP spill. Just like the mercury from every coal-fired power plant in the world.

To echo aqua: there are soundings of BP in TEPCO's dealings. Early on it was obvious that tens of thousands of barrels of oil were spewing from the Deepwater Horizon well, yet every time some scientists would come up with a very educated estimate, BP would respond by syaing, "Oh, that's too high; it's really no more than a few gallons per day at most." Now every time some high radioactivity reading is released to the public, TEPCO is right there to deny and/or downplay.

It's a depressingly--and predictably--familiar scene.



The reason they aren't worried is because of the short half life. In 8 days that will drop to a 6 month dose. In another, a 3 month dose. Another, 1.5 month dose. And so on and so forth.

In two months, there will be only a small amount left and by then it will be spread very thinly.

Cesium and to a lesser extent, cobalt, are much more worrying with their longer half lives.

I don't think they're downplaying much. I think the media is overhyping. You'd think the west coast of the US was going to be a Thunderdome-esque radioactive wasteland listening to the 24 hour news networks.
Quoting Chicklit:
Germany is way ahead of everyone else in renewable energy:

In Germany, the installed capacity of renewable power stations has increased significantly during the last years. Since 2000 wind power has the highest capacity of all renewables although hydroelectric power stations normally have more full load hours per year.

Photovoltaic installations have also grown rapidly during the last years. The total installed capacity of power stations in Germany has risen due to the newly installed renewable power stations whereas the capacity of conventional power station has decreased since beginning of the 1990s.

The renewable share of the total capacity has increase more than six times since beginning of the 1990s and reached double-digit numbers. Since the year 2004 the installed renewable capacity in Germany is higher than the nuclear power capacity.

Link


Even China is doing better than we are at renewable power. They are currently the number one investor in renewable energy sources and outstrip the US 2-to-1 in spending.

On a completely unrelated note, I just saw this advert at the bottom of the page:

Public Health Alert: Reishi may help avoid radiation injury

I know adverts are necessary, but can you at least have adverts that aren't scaremongering scams?
1087. hydrus
Quoting RTLSNK:
Have rain, willing to share, call 1-800-wet-lawn, bring large rain barrels. :)
Shutting Hal down once again. :(
This could end up being another long day for yall..Good morning...Stay safe..:)
If you would like an interesting read about a sustainable energy zero carbon energy plan from Melbourne University, go here. It's in PDF format.
Man, cyclone Oz should be visiting central GA wherever he is. Severe so far here in Macon:

Tornado Watch: 3
Severe Thunderstorm Watch: 1
Tornado Warning: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: 5
Significant Weather Advisory: 2

We've been in the bulls eye again so far today, looks like this next storm might be the last for now though.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The reason they aren't worried is because of the short half life. In 8 days that will drop to a 6 month dose. In another, a 3 month dose. Another, 1.5 month dose. And so on and so forth.

In two months, there will be only a small amount left and by then it will be spread very thinly.

Cesium and to a lesser extent, cobalt, are much more worrying with their longer half lives.

I don't think they're downplaying much. I think the media is overhyping. You'd think the west coast of the US was going to be a Thunderdome-esque radioactive wasteland listening to the 24 hour news networks.

No, they are definitely downplaying. And that's not just my opinion, or the opinion of a few rabid anti-nuclear wackos; that's what nuclear physicists are saying. The only people who think things are being "overhyped" are nuclear industry types.

I would ask this: if there's truly nothing to fear, why the lack of openness by TEPCO and the Japanese government? Why the constant backing and filling? Why the admissions by TEPCO that they have been less than forthcoming? Why the consistent usage of double-speak and vague or obfuscatory language?

I'll go on record again as stating that I'm not worried at all at this point about Fukushima fallout directly affecting the U.S. I'm far more concerned about the lack of foresight shown by the plant's developers. I'm far more concerned about TEPCO's dismissal of warnings about what could happen should a large tsunami wash over the plant. I'm far more concerned with the short-term and long-term affects of all that radiation belching into the Japanese air and sea.

In short, I'm far more concerned about the fact that, as presently instituted, nuclear energy is not clean, it's not safe, and--worst of all--it's far from adequately regulated.
1091. Patrap
Burials In Quake-Hit Towns Deepen Japan's Tragedy

by The Associated Press



YAMAMOTO, Japan March 27, 2011, 05:05 am ET

The funeral for Chieko Mori's daughter and granddaughter was an affront to Japanese sacred customs — the two were placed in simple wooden coffins that soldiers lowered into a ditch in a vegetable patch as a backhoe poured in earth, burying them alongside scores of other bodies.

Such an unceremonious disposal of the dead would be unthinkable in Japan in normal times. But the devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami have left a huge backlog of thousands of bodies in makeshift morgues, leaving local governments no choice but to bury them in hastily dug mass graves.

In small-town Japan, the funeral is an elaborate and highly formalized Buddhist ritual, in which the body is washed, dressed and cremated, the ashes interred at the family tomb.

So this — mass graves, heavy machinery, improvised rites — is almost unbearable, a tragedy that robs both survivors and the dead of closure.

Since the tragedy, Mori has been in a deep shock and doesn't always respond when spoken to. Her husband, son-in-law, and another granddaughter are also dead, and they will be buried in mass graves in upcoming days. Her sister, Tomiko Sato, came from a nearby town to attend the funeral on Saturday, to relieve Mori of the burden.

"We were told at town hall that they didn't have the resources, and if we wanted proper cremations we could drive the bodies to Yamagata ourselves," Sato said, referring to a neighboring prefecture about 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the west — too far to travel with gasoline so scarce.

"But this is a temporary grave, and the government said they would cremate the bodies within two years, so we can move them to the family grave."

Saturday's mass burial was the first in Yamamoto, a town of 16,700 with about 1,000 dead or missing. Eleven uniform plywood caskets were buried, with 400 more planned in the coming days. A Buddhist priest apologized for the conditions before chanting traditional hymns, and relatives pried off the lids to caress the dead, placing garbage bags full of their belongings inside and later sobbing as white-gloved troops hoisted the coffins away.

For Sato, just finding the bodies was an achievement — she borrowed gas for her car and circled local evacuee centers for two weeks to track down the whole family, who grew strawberries in a coastal area where many houses are completely destroyed. The last to be found was Honoka, a granddaughter in junior high school, whose body was damaged beyond recognition.

"She wasn't wearing her school uniform, but her teacher contacted her boyfriend, who told us about a necklace and a bracelet he had given her. She was wearing both," she said.

The last time the whole family got together was in early December, for take-out sushi at the Mori family's now destroyed home.

The setting at Yamamoto was in stark contrast to a burial earlier in the day at Higashimatsushima, a town about 40 miles (70 kilometers) north up the coast. Soldiers there had dug pits in a muddy field at a recycling center, and a morning ceremony took place in freezing rain, against a backdrop of cubes of crushed plastic bottles and stacks of fluorescent light tubes.

Many relatives were bused in from evacuee centers and arrived in sweat pants and tennis shoes. Soldiers lowered coffins into the long ditches, and an official with a bullhorn called out the names of the dead, apologizing when he mispronounced one. Mourners in white masks sobbed from beneath their umbrellas.

"We lost my wife's father in the tsunami. He wasn't my grandfather, but we were very close, and I called him `gramps.' He was a very kind man — he didn't like to drink but would always buy me a nice bottle of sake," said Koji Ushigome.

His father-in-law, Yuichi Takahashi, died in the tsunami at age 81, and was lowered into the ground in a white wooden coffin, with the number `670' written on the side in black magic marker. Officials were carefully noting the location of the coffins so the remains can one day be exhumed and receive a proper burial.

Officials stressed the temporary nature of the burials, and said they had little choice given the vast number of bodies. The official death toll from the quake and tsunami has passed 10,100, with more than 17,000 listed as missing

"The bodies are fairly decomposed now. These are not funerals, just short-term interments," said town official Toshiaki Aizawa.

Behind him, three cars full of mourners pulled up in the parking lot for the next set of bodies.
1092. Grothar
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Even China is doing better than we are at renewable power. They are currently the number one investor in renewable energy sources and outstrip the US 2-to-1 in spending.

On a completely unrelated note, I just saw this advert at the bottom of the page:

Public Health Alert: Reishi may help avoid radiation injury

I know adverts are necessary, but can you at least have adverts that aren't scaremongering scams?


Not for long.
They're heavily investing in nuclear energy.

Nuclear Power in China
(Updated 10 March 2011)

Mainland China has 13 nuclear power reactors in operation, more than 25 under construction, and more about to start construction soon.
Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give more than a ten-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030, and 400 GWe by 2050.
China is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle.
Most of mainland China's electricity is produced from fossil fuels (80% from coal, 2% from oil, 1% from gas in 2006) and hydropower (15%). Two large hydro projects are recent additions: Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 GWe. Rapid growth in demand has given rise to power shortages, and the reliance on fossil fuels has led to much air pollution. The economic loss due to pollution is put by the World Bank at almost 6% of GDP.1


world-nuclar.org
1094. beell
click graphic for text discussion
1095. RTLSNK
Definitely an E-ticket ride here this morning.
K5 and I8 coming in now south of me.
1097. beell
This piece is a year old but I doubt the shortage of qualified construction and operating personnel has changed.

China Daily

More experienced nuclear workers necessary
By Xie Yu (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-03-09 07:53

BEIJING: A shortage of experienced technicians is posing a grave challenge to China's nuclear safety as the country is rapidly expanding nuclear power plants, a former nuclear safety administrator has said.

"Experienced senior technicians currently comprise less than one-third of operating staff, while the rest of the positions are filled by new hands," said Wang Yuqing, former director of the National Nuclear Safety Administration.

Stressing that there has been a drop in the proportion of experienced technicians across all operating staff at nuclear plants, he attributed the disparity in the proportion of experienced technicians to operating staff to the rapid growth in the nuclear power industry.

Wang, a member of the CPPCC national committee, said nuclear power is a unique industry, in which specialized skills and experience are required for an aptitude in safety that cannot be acquired from text books alone.

For example, a nuclear power plant used to have 500 to 600 operating staff, with 80 percent of them having four to five years of experience. Now, however, five to six new units are started at one time, which means the 80 percent of experienced staff are spread across the new units, he said.

In order to meet the energy shortage and combat climate change, China has actively expanded its nuclear industry in recent years.

Ye Qizhen, deputy director of the science and technology committee of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), said China's installed capacity of nuclear power is expected to reach 70 million kW by 2020, 200 million kW by 2030 and 400 million kW by 2050.

"It means nuclear power will account for 7 percent of China's overall power capacity in 2020, 15 percent in 2030 and 22 percent in 2050," Ye added.

China has approved the construction of 28 more units capable of producing nuclear power, of which 24 are under construction, and another 11 units are already in operation.

In addition to the lack of experienced operators, there is also a shortage of supervisors, according to Wang.

There are currently about 300 official supervisors for nuclear power safety in China. In other countries, such as the US, France, and Japan, there are usually 35 to 40 people who supervise a single unit.

"We already have 11 units under operation, which need about 400 people. For those under construction, we need even more," he said.

Along with skilled manpower shortages, Wang highlighted the need for security controls at nuclear plants.

"The general situation for nuclear security is good," he said, adding that the central government has been giving greater attention to the issue.

As the industry continues to expand at a rapid rate, he called for corporate culture and the awareness of nuclear safety issues to remain in tandem with these developments.

Wang also noted that since China is using more equipment designed and produced in China, rather than importing it from abroad, it is "of the utmost importance to guarantee the quality of this equipment to minimize any potential risks".

According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, China's nuclear power plants experienced 13 operating incidents in the first nine months of 2008, but they had no effect on nuclear safety.
Quoting RTLSNK:
Definitely an E-ticket ride here this morning.
K5 and I8 coming in now south of me.
daytime heat effect good lift strong to severe with a possible extreme storm as afternoon wears on
Prior to 2008, the government had planned to increase nuclear generating capacity to 40 GWe by 2020 (out of a total 1000 GWe planned), with a further 18 GWe nuclear being under construction then. However, government targets for nuclear power have been increasing. As of June 2010, official installed nuclear capacity projections were 70-80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030 and 400-500 GWe by 2050. China Daily in January 2011 quoted a senior official projecting 86 GWe target in 2020.

In September 2010, the China Daily reported that China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) alone plans to invest CNY 800 billion ($120 billion) into nuclear energy projects by 2020. Total investment in nuclear power plants, in which CNNC will hold controlling stakes, will reach CNY 500 billion ($75 billion) by 2015, resulting in 40 GWe on line, according to CNNC. In order to fund the company's expansion target, CNNC plans to list its subsidiary, CNNC Nuclear Power Co Ltd in 2011, to attract strategic investors.

...In January 2011 a report from the State Council Research Office (SCRO), which makes independent policy recommendations to the State Council on strategic matters, was published. While approving the enormous progress made on many fronts, it cautioned concerning provincial and corporate enthusiasm for new nuclear power plants and said that the 2020 target should be restricted to 70 GWe of new plant actually operating so as to avoid placing undue demand on quality control issues in the supply chain.

Another 30 GWe could be under construction....

Anyway, I don't usually read long posts on this site...To find out more just check out this Link

The story was last updated March 10th.
1100. beell
Quoting RTLSNK:
Definitely an E-ticket ride here this morning.
K5 and I8 coming in now south of me.


Ya'll are in the "sweet" spot along the boundary. Starting to see some signs of rotation (on SRV loops) in the cells to your SE-to the N of I-16. One in particular just ENE of Dublin.
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, they are definitely downplaying. And that's not just my opinion, or the opinion of a few rabid anti-nuclear wackos; that's what nuclear physicists are saying. The only people who think things are being "overhyped" are nuclear industry types.

I would ask this: if there's truly nothing to fear, why the lack of openness by TEPCO and the Japanese government? Why the constant backing and filling? Why the admissions by TEPCO that they have been less than forthcoming? Why the consistent usage of double-speak and vague or obfuscatory language?

I'll go on record again as stating that I'm not worried at all at this point about Fukushima fallout directly affecting the U.S. I'm far more concerned about the lack of foresight shown by the plant's developers. I'm far more concerned about TEPCO's dismissal of warnings about what could happen should a large tsunami wash over the plant. I'm far more concerned with the short-term and long-term affects of all that radiation belching into the Japanese air and sea.

In short, I'm far more concerned about the fact that, as presently instituted, nuclear energy is not clean, it's not safe, and--worst of all--it's far from adequately regulated.


I see. You're specifically referring to the effects on Japan. I thought you were talking about the nonsense here. My bad.

In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated to the point where hardly anyone is willing to build a nuclear plant (let alone nuclear research) due to the expense. It's a government controlled entity. Same with France and multiple other countries.

Japan is a bit different. TEPCO is a company that has been reprimanded on several occasions for not adhering to standards. Cheaper that way. And since they weren't any real penalties they didn't care much. And why spend millions on safety improvements on plants when Nothing Bad Will Happen(tm). Why upgrade plants to safer designs when it's cheaper to just leave things the way they are?

Nuclear power is safe AND clean. Even wind power causes more deaths per year. But you can't be half-a$$ about it, and you certainly can't leave it in the hands of for-profit corporations willing to cut corners and ignore warnings to keep their bottom line intact.

TEPCO thought they could do that. They were wrong. It's quite likely that after this the Japanese government will step in with a much heavier hand, and TEPCO will take a pretty significant hit. They may even be removed from the chain entirely (they should be).

Looks like the majority conservative party in Germany (CDU) is about to lose a key election due in part to a pro-nuclear energy stance:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/27/angel a-merkel-baden-wurttemberg-elections

Link
1104. beell
There ya go, Snake. Severe T-Storm Warning-half-dollar size hail. A supercell is born.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
Sunday, March 27, 11 p.m. ET, Tokyo

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that the data on the high concentration of radioactive iodine 134, which was published this morning, was found to be wrong. They will announce the new data later. The previous data, experts pointed out, suggests that the core is critical.
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....





That QPF map doesn't really make any sense to me, the reason why is all the models show the heaviest convection over Central Florida as well as the front stalling in Central Florida. I also think a QPF of 3.5 inches widespread my be overdoing it a bit considering this is the driest time of year, but widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches seems more reasonable. However, because of very high moisture content and intense convection, isolated much heavier amounts could exist.
"No, they are definitely downplaying. And that's not just my opinion, or the opinion of a few rabid anti-nuclear wackos; that's what nuclear physicists are saying. The only people who think things are being "overhyped" are nuclear industry types."

Nea, an opinion poll in my country, held thursday and friday, showed 75% of the people were convinced that they were downplaying.
1101. Xyrus2000 4:39 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated . . .

: So was the oil drilling industry if you listened to those promoting off-shore-drilling.
Xyrus,

in my small country we have only 1 nuclear reactor. Since 1980 there have been 372 incidents, including loss of electricity which caused loss of the systems cooling as well as the emergency-cooling. When both cooling-systems were down the diesel-driven-cooling was overheated and went down also. Only an emergency powerline to an old coal plant saved us then.

"In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated to the point where hardly anyone is willing to build a nuclear plant (let alone nuclear research) due to the expense. It's a government controlled entity. Same with France and multiple other countries."

I live in the Netherlands, this nuclear facility is not privately owned. But these things happen you know.
And saying that more people die of wind power is really BS. You should look up what Chernobyl caused.
And then you should realise that WHO (World Health Organisation) can't come up with the numbers they really found because of an agreement with the UN, especially the IAEA.
1112. Patrap
Solar Update - An M1.0 Solar Flare took place at
www.solarham.com

23:22 UTC Friday and was followed by what looks to be a C-Class flare early on Saturday which produced a small CME as seen in the latest Lasco C2 movie.

The visible solar disk consists of Sunspots 1176, 1177, 1178, 1180 and 1181. The most active region 1176 may still produce another M-Class flare.

Sunspots (Saturday)


1113. Drakoen
Quoting Jedkins01:



That QPF map doesn't really make any sense to me, the reason why is all the models show the heaviest convection over Central Florida as well as the front stalling in Central Florida. I also think a QPF of 3.5 inches widespread my be overdoing it a bit considering this is the driest time of year, but widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches seems more reasonable. However, because of very high moisture content and intense convection, isolated much heavier amounts could exist.


That map from the HPC is good for now, maybe narrowing that region of highest QPF just a bit. Looking at the latest and previous runs of the GFS as well as the GEFS, they have been showing a large region between 3-4 inches around the Gulf Coast region from Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida where the dynamics will be the best. The axis of heaviest precip lies around the I-10 corridor of those aforementioned areas.
1114. Xandra
Interesting reading about Radiological Terrorism - Sabotage of Spent Fuel Pool - from INESAP (International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation) Link
1115. Drakoen
Over South Georgia with a Tornado Warning.

cover of the news week it gives me an uneasy feeling.
hey drakoen,how much rain do u see jacksonville,florida getting?
Looks like the hottest day of the year for FL so far.
EXTREME


1121. RTLSNK
Storms firing farther South of us now:
Warmth In The Gulf; Top 5...
2005: 31% Capable of TC; 3rd Place


2008: 16% Capable of TC; 4th Place


2007: 35% Capable of TC; 2nd Place


2010: 4% Capable of TC; 5th Place


2011: 37% Capable of TC; 1st Place


So Currently 2011 is in the lead with 37% of the Gulf 26 C or more, The Bay of Campeche is beginning to warm as well as Florida; East and West Coast.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the hottest day of the year for FL so far.
85 to 90 F looks like, We got those Warm temps late last week, not its cooler because of a low or front haven't paid much attention to the forecast lately.
This is a serious situation, there are several cell with 70+ DBZ rating on them in Central Georgia! Ive never seen that many!
94 here in Orlando!!! Hell I think we may hit 97 or 98 over the next few hours. Amazing! I have never seen it this hot so early in the year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the hottest day of the year for FL so far.


Yep its 87 at my place!
Quoting RastaSteve:
94 here in Orlando!!! Hell I think we may hit 97 or 98 over the next few hours. Amazing! I have never seen it this hot so early in the year.


Well its 91 at Orlando International but I bet local temps are higher, 90s in March, that's pretty crazy! The forecast for Orlando when you click on it is 87, LOL so much for that.


The forecast for my place was 82 today on the west side of state but even here it has reached 87!

I love this weather though!
Quoting Drakoen:


That map from the HPC is good for now, maybe narrowing that region of highest QPF just a bit. Looking at the latest and previous runs of the GFS as well as the GEFS, they have been showing a large region between 3-4 inches around the Gulf Coast region from Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida where the dynamics will be the best. The axis of heaviest precip lies around the I-10 corridor of those aforementioned areas.



Yeah, I'm just playing it as a wait and see, there isn't a lot of confidence in this forecast as I'm sure you're aware of. So I wouldn't bet on anything.
Quoting Jedkins01:



That QPF map doesn't really make any sense to me, the reason why is all the models show the heaviest convection over Central Florida as well as the front stalling in Central Florida. I also think a QPF of 3.5 inches widespread my be overdoing it a bit considering this is the driest time of year, but widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches seems more reasonable. However, because of very high moisture content and intense convection, isolated much heavier amounts could exist.


Yeah, you may want to reconsider as the NWS of Melbourne thinks some area tomorrow alone will get 2" to 3". Expect a big explosion of storms later tonight into tomorrow morning over C FL.
Quoting RastaSteve:
94 here in Orlando!!! Hell I think we may hit 97 or 98 over the next few hours. Amazing! I have never seen it this hot so early in the year.
Im tellin you! This has been the warmest year down in Texas and Florida in years. Last Wednesday we hit 93 and Thursday and Friday were 90. At this time last year we saw 70's and didnt see 90's til May. So were going to see those Gulf SSt's jump in April-May.
How much rain do u see jacksonville,florida getting?
Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah, you may want to reconsider as the NWS of Melbourne thinks some area tomorrow alone will get 2" to 3". Expect a big explosion of storms later tonight into tomorrow morning over C FL.

Keep in mind though, that's referring to some areas. With PW's getting up around 2.00 inches and steep lapse rates, there's gonna be very intense rainfall as there is always is in Florida. But remember rainfall down here in Florida is not usually uniform or predictable like it is up North. Up north you typically get large swaths of stratiform rain that produce even distribution of rain. Even convection up there takes on a similar form with elevated convection generally producing fairly uniform coverage.

However here in Florida you'll have some areas get 2 or 3, while others get very little. Which averages around 1 inch distributed QPF. Now that's not always the case, that's just a general example, obviously weather is more variable than that, but you get the picture.


I am expecting some pretty impressive storm coverage tomorrow though.
1134. beell
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
How much rain do u see jacksonville,florida getting?


1.5" total. Monday through Thursday.
1135. Patrap
Be Back Later...
1137. Drakoen
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
hey drakoen,how much rain do u see jacksonville,florida getting?


1.5in-2in
Hey, warm day here in New Smyrna Beach...
Weather Station
Bethune Beach, New Smyrna Beach
Elevation
35 ft Station Select Now
93.3 °FFeels Like 89 °F Mostly Cloudy

BY YURI KAGEYAMA and MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Yuri Kageyama And Mari Yamaguchi, Associated Press – 1 hr 43 mins ago
TOKYO – Mounting problems, including badly miscalculated radiation figures and inadequate storage tanks for huge amounts of contaminated water, stymied emergency workers Sunday as they struggled to nudge Japan's stricken nuclear complex back from the edge of disaster.

Workers are attempting to remove the radioactive water from the tsunami-ravaged nuclear compound and restart the regular cooling systems for the dangerously hot fuel.

The day began with company officials reporting that radiation in leaking water in the Unit 2 reactor was 10 million times above normal, a spike that forced employees to flee the unit. The day ended with officials saying the huge figure had been miscalculated and offering apologies.

"The number is not credible," said Tokyo Electric Power Co. spokesman Takashi Kurita. "We are very sorry."

A few hours later, TEPCO Vice President Sakae Muto said a new test had found radiation levels 100,000 times above normal — far better than the first results, though still very high.

But he ruled out having an independent monitor oversee the various checks despite the errors
.

Link
According to the Japan National Police Agency, the confirmed death toll from the earthquake is now 10,804 and the number missing is 16,244. The combined total is 27,048.


Daily change in confirmed dead +315
Daily change in listed missing -377

Daily combined total for both: -62
New blog
* until 515 PM EDT

* at 407 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms... along a line extending from I-16/I-95
interchange to 11 miles west of Ellabell... moving southeast at 35
mph.

Prepare now for the following hazards...
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...
half dollar size hail...

* some locations in the warning include...
I-16/I-95 interchange... Pooler... Garden City... Flemington... Windsor
Forest... White Bluff... Richmond Hill...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Report hail... downed trees... limbs... and power lines directly to the
Charleston National Weather Service at 1-888-383-2024.


Lat... Lon 3212 8172 3211 8151 3223 8144 3221 8110
3181 8113 3183 8136 3188 8174
time... Mot... loc 2012z 302deg 32kt 3206 8122 3204 8162

The two tone sassa frass
Something wrong or did everybody fall asleep?
Well, when I am the last one in, I'll turn off the lights and lock the door.
Goodnight.

Quoting RukusBoondocks:
The two tone sassa frass
give it up rufus the dufus