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Spring flooding hits Midwest; Southeast drought eases

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:04 PM GMT on March 20, 2008

This year's annual spring flooding season is upon us, and it's been a worse flood year than usual across much of the Midwestern U.S. At least 13 people have been killed due to the flooding this week, with another three persons missing. A slow moving storm system brought rains in excess of ten inches to the region (Figure 1). These rains, combined with melting from unusually heavy snows this winter, have led to the floods.


Figure 1. Heavy rains exceeding 10 inches have fallen in some portions of the Midwest over the past week. Image credit: NOAA.

According to NOAA, 224 cities are experiencing flooding today, with major flooding reported in 13 cities in Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Illinois. As snow continues to melt and runoff from the recent rains continues to increase the flooding, an additional 13 cities are expected to observe major flooding in the next 48 hours. Fortunately, no heavy rain is expected in the next three days, so a long duration flooding event is not likely.


Figure 2. The NOAA flood outlook calls for significant river flooding across much of the Midwest through Monday. Image credit: NOAA.

Flooding outlook for this Spring
According to NOAA, Above-normal flood potential is expected this Spring in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho. Snow depths up to a foot above usual in upstate New York and much of New England could cause flooding in the Connecticut River Valley; locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in the snow pack, leading to a higher than normal flood potential there; and Wisconsin and northern Illinois have had heavy snows this winter that could cause continued flooding concerns this Spring.

Southeast drought continues to improve
On the plus side, the area of the Southeast U.S. covered by the severest form of drought--exceptional drought--has shrunk to a small spot over southern Tennessee/northern Alabama, and Georgia is free of exceptional drought for the first time since July. The drought is expected to continue to improve between now and June over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters
Batesville's west side is flooded.
Batesville's west side is flooded.
Hundreds of residents ere evacuated earlier today. As the water continues to rise, hundreds more may have to leave their homes.
Flooding Strikes NE Arkansas & SE Missouri
Flooding Strikes NE Arkansas & SE Missouri
Severe flooding hits the area. My stepfather took a friend up and snapped these shots. Photos taken around HWY 53 area around Qulin and Poplar Bluff. Others taken in Clay County, Arkansas.
Kroger 3
Kroger 3
Local flooding

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update.

It is always either not enough rain or too much!

Happy First Day of Spring everyone!!!
Thanks for the update Dr. M !
Good Afternoon....


Today is the official start of the spring season. The vernal equinox began 0548 UTC or 0148 EDT/AST this morning and will end on June 20 at 2359 UTC or 1959 EDT/AST.

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The western flank of a mid-upper ridge over the Southwest Atlantic is maintaining pronounce southwesterly winds aloft over the Gulf Region. A surface cold front is embedded under this southwesterly flow of moisture from extreme southeastern Mexico at 17N/95W across the Yucatan, the Southeastern Gulf and The Florida Peninsula, before entering the Atlantic. Visible imagery showed a swath of multilayer cloudiness and showers within 120 nmi behind the leading edge frontal ropes clouds north of 22N. A much broader zone of cloudiness and showers lies across the Yucatan Peninsula, and Northern Central America, partly due to enhanced lift along the terrain.

Meanwhile, the associated high pressure ridge has build across the Southern United States, Mainland Mexico, and into the Gulf behind the front. This high is producing exceptionally fair skies across the area, 20 knots of offshore flow and 7-10 ft northwest swells over open waters behind the front.

A very deep layer ridge extending from a 1023 mb high at the surface to a 200 mb ridge in the upper levels. A cold front continues from the Central Florida Peninsula and surges northeastward along the coastal waters of the Eastern United States. The front more or less surges around the flow of the ridge. Dry air is noted elsewhere near the heart of the ridge with light surface winds and scattered stratocumulus clouds. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a large low pressure area in the far North Atlantic is generating 20-30 knot winds and extremely large open ocean swells of 22 ft which are impacting the Northern Caribbean. See Caribbean heading.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A broad zone of broken to overcast cloudiness and showers are seen along Central America from 87W to 92W north of 15N. This activity is associated with a surface cold front. Weak upper ridging and dry air is seen across the remainder of the Caribbean, hindering much vertical development of cloudiness with only broken and dusty stratocumulus clouds embedded within the surface flow. A moderate high pressure system is maintaining a somewhat tight pressure gradient across the North Central Atlantic which is producing large open ocean waves. These waves are being directed towards the Northeast Caribbean in the form of 16-20 ft swells. Because of this, marine conditions remain hazardous, and swimmers and small craft should avoid these waters in the meantime. Additionally, structural damages to ports and piers are possible. These swells are less significant within the Caribbean Sea where 8-9 ft seas everywhere and near 13 ft along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean Sea.

by W456
Invest 95P, on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. Excellent satellite signiture with expanding cruve banding. Excellent outflow under and upper anticyclone in the southern quadrants.

Thank you Dr. Masters,

As seems to be the norm,mother nature corrects deficits with excess.So much of the country was is different degrees of drought last year,and looks like this spring is going to be just the opposite
thanks dr spring has sprung
70 days till hurricane season
thanks dr spring has sprung
70 days till hurricane season
freaky double post
Large waves along the north coast of Trinidad have resulted in several beaches being closed by lifeguards today. Reports of large waves along both the east and south coasts as well.
The surfers are enjoying this, but the fishing boats cannot leave the small harbours along the coast, resulting in lack of fresh fish for the table, a traditional Easter food.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Master's!
fun surf today in the gomex, waist high - couldn't get wet - work, work, work The east coast of FL had monster waves --the size we normally see during a hurricane --- amazing
beautiful summary on Central America & the Carib region - now I understand why these big waves are happening - was really confused prior - thanx Weather456! The photos from the east coast of FL are amazing HUGE heavy water - www.gulfster.com scroll down for the photo
My son just helped me get this East coast of FL photo on the blog --(I am so computer illiterate) --but --check out that wave!!! so this is what a moderate high pressure system maintaining a tight pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic produces! I am so stoked to match the description with the result --better yet I get to understand how the weather makes the waves, just love this blog, just love weather -
OK take a look at the GFS and the Gulf storm hitting Florida Sunday.
GOM IR loop Link
anyone herd any early predctions on 2008 hurricane season?
Stormhank,

If you'd like to read my early forecast you can view it here
hummmmm, Gom looks interesting for getting waves, but how will it affect the Sunday Polo games?

This season has been hell with all the wind - extra work for horse and rider.
Early work tomorrow, wondering about the life spanof that blob in the gomex, G'nght
Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models Link
19. stormhank 9:29 PM EDT on March 20, 2008
anyone herd any early predctions on 2008 hurricane season?

predictions?I think its best to put effort towards storm preps as nobody can tell you with good accuracy what areas are going to be impacted this upcoming tropical season.Predictions such as grays december update are just beyond ridiculous as its nearly impossible to even get an idea on what different atmospheric conditions will around 6-7 months out.Once early may comes around things will become a little more clear on what type of season we might have.

Iam just tired of all these predictions all over the place the best thing you can do is just be ready come june 1. Only takes 1.

I prefer pinning a map of the Tropical Atlantic on a dart board.

www.AdriansWeather.com
30%chance Monday for snow for portions of N.C.


The low should arrive in the morning hours.Depending on the track and still further down the road totals are unsure.
We may have to watch this rather small, but fascinating surface low off the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 24 to 48 hours to see how it reacts with the frontal boundary that passed through South Florida.
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Updated to 5.2Link


Update time = Fri Mar 21 2:19:05 UTC 2008

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2008/03/21 00:26:14 35.318 81.295 10.0 XINJIANG-XIZANG
Valid Friday:

Photobucket



Valid Saturday:


Photobucket

It occurred two Hours ago..
Thursday, March 20, 2008 at 07:26:13 PM (CDT)
pat i think thats an aftershock.
Most Likely...Looks to be in a remote are .
Hmmmm...

In the Himalayas, huh?

Rebound from lost glaciers? lol
Japan Meteorological Agency

Earthquake Information (Earthquake Information)
Issued at 07:59 JST 21 Mar 2008

Time & Date: 07:33 JST 21 Mar 2008
-------------------17:33 CDT 20 Mar 2008

Location: 35.8N 81.4E
Depth: 30km
Magnitude: 7.1
Region of World: WESTERN CHINA
Caribou, ME breaks their seasonal snowfall record tonight. Could tally over 200" before the season is over.

At 8:50pm Caribou, ME has recored 181.8" of snow thus far this winter after 9.9" from this most recent storm, breaking the old record of 181.1" of snow set during the winter of 1954-55.
Statement as of 10:14 PM CDT on March 20, 2008


The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at St. Louis
* until Sunday evening.
* At 10:00 PM Thursday the stage was 30.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river is expected to crest near 31.2 feet tomorrow
morning.
* Impact... at 31.0 feet... water begins entering the downtown parking
garage.
low pressure over yuc at the end of frontal boundry should generate an area of disturb weather over fla pens. starting 00z sun at the moment most should be confine south of tampa with most intense areas off west coast then trackin eastward over lower pen rain totals near 15 to 25 mm in heavy showers possible
Anyone still online on the message board? :)
For those of you who have a main portrait picture, i can't get mine to replace the default one. I uploaded it, but can't figure out how to make it my portrait.


Help anyone????
Good day for a touch of "Fridayitis" on the Gulf Coast:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
302 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2008

...THE THEME OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...VERY NICE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF EXCELLENT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
Good morning from the two tone talk club!!!!!!!!!
A flood in the mid-west. Wow theres some news I'v never heard before.
Deadly Rains in the U.S. Midwest



This image shows rainfall totals for March 13-20, 2008, based on output from the near-real-time, Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The analysis is based in part on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Rain extends from central Texas northeastward up into southern Pennsylvania. The highest rainfall totals (shown in red) are about 200 millimeters (about 8 inches) and are located over western Arkansas. A broad area of rainfall of at least 100 mm (about 4 inches, shown in yellow) covers most of southern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma, with embedded higher amounts on the order 150 mm (about 6 inches, shown in orange). TRMM does not observe rainfall with the same level of detail as ground-based rain gauges or weather radars; instead it sees a broad area at one time. Locally, there were reports of up to a foot of rain in parts of Missouri. At least 13 deaths were being blamed on the weather, and numerous rivers were at or above flood stage across the Midwest. More...

NASA images by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC). Caption by Steve Lang (SSAI/NASA GSFC).

A surface Low pressure is developing in the GOM. This could make for some interesting weather for Florida Saturday and Sunday.
what are we seeing for Saturday in the SRQ/Tampa area.......kid has a veryimportant polo game (horses)
hmmmmm, we need the rain...timing is everything
Looks like heavy rain coming....looking at some models...This is a 48 Hour pic of the GFS model.
If the rain comes into to SWFL in the PM early/ AM, Polo games should go on, the fields are very dry so the grass will drink up the water. plus they have an interesting drainage watering system. (Unique in the States) SRQ Polo Club can water the fields from underground, but they can also drain the fields --like a vacuum if they need to. Problem is playing in the rain is very dicey. The grass gets slippery, and the horses shoes (if they don't have spikes) can slip on the wet. Often they call the games off, but sometimes they "push it" (in a mother's opinion) So I guess I am wishcasting for that rain to come in tonight and be gone with enough time for safe fields tomorrow by 1:00PM LOL.
Well the newspaper gives me 30%, WU gives 40% -- oh well
QPF.....Valid Saturday:


Photobucket
Oh Storm, you are the bearer of GOOD NEWS!
bbl
The surface low is just exiting the northern coast of the Yucatan. Hopefully that can increase the coverage of rain in South Florida this weekend, especially in the North and Western sections of Lake O.
i got it on floater 4km g8 vis ir its intersecting at
track point 90w/23.9n small compact little system coming here watch it now
Here's the center of circulation. The NWS forecast for the Tampa area is calling for 40% chance T-Storms tomorrow at the moment. The chance increases farther south.

it will ride below 28.0n
Glad it's not the season yet!

Afternoon, Storm. I couldn't agree more!
Also agree with that. Another 3 or 4 months and we could be looking @ the Arthur.

There's some memory sparking names back this year.

2008 Hurricane Names
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Good afternoon!

La Nina is starting to weaken (Slightly, not sure if it will continue). I have a blog on it (The information is from the ENSO Wrap up site). Link
2nd that one my friend, could be a busy year for many if it doesn't.
ya if it was this one will be one of those fast spin ups from nuttin to wicked in 12 hrs or less
GOM GOES-12 Low Cloud Product Image.
Click to ENlarge Link
38. Tazmanian 10:59 PM CDT on March 20, 2008
Statement as of 10:14 PM CDT on March 20, 2008


The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at St. Louis
* until Sunday evening.
* At 10:00 PM Thursday the stage was 30.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river is expected to crest near 31.2 feet tomorrow
morning.
* Impact... at 31.0 feet... water begins entering the downtown parking
garage.


Taz, that is nothing; most of the rain didn't even fall north of St. Louis; downtown St. Louis is also protected by a 52 foot floodwall, even the 1993 flood was 2 feet lower than that. This is however a problem (floodwaters have flooded one of the roads into my neighborhood and people have been evacuated from parts of St. Louis County):



849 am CDT Fri Mar 21 2008

... Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...
the Flood Warning continues for
the Meramec river at Valley Park
* until Thursday morning... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:45 am Friday the stage was 32.8 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 40.0 feet by
Saturday evening.
* The river will fall below flood stage late Wednesday morning.
* Impact... at 39.7 feet... 39.73... flood of record on December 6, 1982


849 am CDT Fri Mar 21 2008

The Flood Warning continues for
the Meramec river near Eureka
* until Wednesday morning... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:30 am Friday the stage was 37.9 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 43.0 feet by
early afternoon on Saturday.
* The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
* Impact... at 42.9 feet... this is the record flood level that was
reached on December 6 1982
.

That is going to hurt a lot, although some places like Valley Park may be protected (they had a levee built in 2005, I have heard reports of levees being breached though)... Worse, NOAA says that what is happening now is only "a sign of things to come", like they are calling for another 1993 or something (the 1993 flood itself wasn't as rare as you might think, there were floods with higher flow rates in the past, but levels were not as high because levees now constrain the rivers)... wait until the record snow up north melts (plus a few more rainstorms)...

Here are some more pictures:



The last one shows the flood wall that I mentioned.
we got 69 days till official start and counting it will move along wont be long now before u know it it'll be apr 21
then we'll have 39 days from that point
High river puts city on alert
Thursday March 20, 2008, 9:06 PM
Story: Link


Storm,were watching that low very closely here in New England,looks like it will move out to sea after Florida,but it makes me nervous
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A weak upper trough continues dig along 99W inducing dry conditions over Mexico and a southwesterly flow of mid-upper level moisture across the Gulf of Mexico in the form of cirrus clouds extending from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to the Southwest Atlantic. Visible imagery indicated that a surface low is situated over the South-Central Gulf just to the north of the Yucatan Coast with a frontal boundary extending from the low through the Florida Straits and into the Atlantic. A broad zone of scattered to broken cloudiness is seen across the Central and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a broad surface anticyclone is sprawled out over the region at 34N/80W providing exceptional fair skies and tranquil conditions over the Southern United States, and 10-20 knot anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will be lowest along the Northeastern Gulf coast where the flow is mainly offshore, 3-4ft and highest across central Gulf waters near the front at 7-9 ft.

The mid-upper moisture surge with the accompanied surface cold front below stretches from the Straits of Florida across the Northern Bahaman Islands and along 25N/75W 27N/70W 28N/65W to beyond 33N/50W. A well define band of scattered showers lies within 120 nmi of the front. Meanwhile, surface observations and QuikSCAT showed strong offshore winds of 35-40 knots producing 9-15 ft northwesterly swells across the Atlantic behind the front north of 30N. Some of these swells will travel and reach the shores the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola. A 1022 mb high is located ahead of the front at 23N/65W supporting widely broken low clouds and 10 knot easterly flow south of 20N.

by W456

Rocky Bay, Bahamas

Afternoon, everybody. I'm not so pleased about the weather right now, though we can use the rain. I FINALLY have a few days off, and what happens? It rains! [sigh]

I'd planned to take advantage of the time off to do some sunrise-sunset photography, but so far the clouds have stymied me. Oh, well, it's a good excuse to hang around in here all afternoon. Maybe the clouds will garner me some super shots tomorrow evening or Easter morning. . . .
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The upper level pattern across the regions continues to flatten out with steady westerlies at 200 mb. Despite this, mid-upper level dry remains over the area hindering any vertical development of clouds. At the surface, the 1022 mb high over the Atlantic is providing the region with 10-20 knot surface winds which are driving patches of low level cloudiness into the region, mainly across the Northeast. This will induce persons of passing showers. Another area of increase cloudiness lies across Central America from Honduras to the Yucatan associated with a stalled out frontal boundary. Seas have generally subsided across the Atlantic shores of the Eastern Caribbean but remain high at around 10-15 ft and even higher through the various channels between the islands. Small craft advisory remains in effect. Seas should return to normal later this weekend and on Monday, and increasing again Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front passes. 5-6 ft seas over Caribbean waters, subsiding to 4-5 ft west of 70W. Highest seas along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean on the order of 9-12 ft.

by W456

La Petite Anse, Saint Barts, Leeward Islands

Which type of disaster is most likely to kill over 1,000 people in a single event in the U.S. in the coming decade?

Heat wave (record: 600 deaths, Chicago 1995 heat wave)


That is wrong...

From the NCDC:

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988. 1988 drought in central and eastern U.S. with very severe losses to agriculture and related industries; estimated $40.0 (61.6) billion damage/costs; estimated 5,000 to 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).

Drought/Heat Wave June-September 1980. Central and eastern U.S.; estimated $20.0 (48.4) billion damage/costs to agriculture and related industries; estimated 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).

From Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters


Surprised that only 8 people/7.5% selected heat wave (including me). And it seems like many think another Katrina is likely?
That is wrong...

From the NCDC:

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988. 1988 drought in central and eastern U.S. with very severe losses to agriculture and related industries; estimated $40.0 (61.6) billion damage/costs; estimated 5,000 to 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).


Wow...I never knew a heat wave could kill so many... You might want to email Dr. Masters about that information.
Excessive heat is by far the leading cause of weather-related fatalities:

90. Inyo
Michael, looks like that chart is Pre-Katrina though. Heat would still win but that would bump up hurricanes a bit
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 21MAR)
==========================
Convective clouds are seen over southeast Arabian Sea and parts of South Andaman Sea.

1800z 21MAR - Marine Discussion
=============================
The low pressure area over Cape Commorin-Maldives area now lies over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area and off Kerala coast persists.

The low pressure area mentioned above is likely to become more marked.
Here's your post Katrina..



Here's the current nws SLOSH based product. Which this bigger picture one came out last year & wasn't really impressive (guess neither was our surges). East Central FL has one for where each type of surge is evaluted how far it may go. Really great info but not so user friendly. For current storms we have this. Goes down to streets on google earth, forecast or best preforming model usually.
1997-2006

117 - 10yrs avg HURRICANE
170 - 10yrs avg EXCESSIVE HEAT

1995-2003

19 - 8yrs avg HURRICANE
230 - 8ys avg EXCESSIVE HEAT

That is some difference
ENSO:


Updated March 6, 2008

(Sea surface temperature (?C) departure from normal)


Current forecasts predict cold anomalies to slowly weaken through the 2008 Season.
Looks like more trouble coming for the central U.S....


The European model (ecmwf) and GFS are fairly similar in forecasting a significant
return of low level moisture overrunning this front. The European model (ecmwf) is
forecasting tremendous 850 mb moisture convergence/warm air
advection
into the area Thursday night. The cold front is expected
to move across the region Friday night. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS have the
back edge of the rain at sunrise Saturday across southern
Illinois/southeast MO. At this point, expect several periods of heavy rain
across portions of the forecast area from Wednesday through Friday.
Not exactly what we need
.
let it begin
gom disturbance
wv shows something popin lets see how far it goes
Good evening all. Watching the RGB imagery, it appears that some strong convection has just begun to develop over and around the surface low in the GOM. It could get quite interesting overnight as the low starts moving towards South Florida. Computer models indicate that we could some hefty rainfall all over the area, including Lake Okeechobee. Thoughts on the weather here tomorrow and early Sunday?
i have it on ir enhance micron 11 shows tops to minus -38 to -42 i get updated imagest every 10 minutes
Hades and others ... sometimes a hurricane kills like a heat wave does.

A number of deaths associated with Rita were from heat exhaustion. From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL182005_Rita.pdf:

Seven fatalities have been directly attributed to the forces of Rita. One was due to drowning near Lake Charles, Louisiana; two people died in Hardin, Texas when a tree was blown down onto their home; one person died when a tree fell on her home in Point Blank, Texas; another person was killed by a falling tree in Angelina County, Texas; one person was killed in a tornado near Isola, Mississippi; and one person drowned in a rip current at Miramar Beach in the Florida panhandle on 24 September. At least 55 'indirect' fatalities have been reported in Texas. Six of these occurred in Beaumont due to carbon monoxide poisoning. A bus accident south of Dallas during the course of the evacuation killed more than 20 persons, mostly elderly evacuees from a nursing home. Other persons died during the evacuation due to heat exhaustion.

The numbers given are indefinite but the "other persons" had to be a large percentage of the indirect fatalities.
CCHS-If it was june instead of march i would say we would get some much needed rain.
Monitoring the Mississippi flood story, obviously...
NOLA-lol-yes monitoring the floods up north but we need rain where i live.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA ADVISORY NUMBER FIVE
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm 14R [994 hPa] located near 16.0S 59.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm was reported moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Near Gale-Force Winds in the southern semi-circle up to 90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds within the southeastern sector

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.6S 58.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 16.8S 57.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 54.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
====================
Environmental pressures remain low and the gradient is weak in the center of the circulation (so winds near the center are rather weak) The center is still estimated on the northeastern edge of the deep convection, undergoing a moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear on the southern edge of the tropical easterly jet. Winds according to 1717z METOP/ASCAT DATA are still very weak near the center. The MSLP is estimated at 994 hPa, referring to Saint Brandon Island SLP 995 hPa. At 2300z Gale-Force Winds, justifying the naming, exists only in the south, rather far from the center and under deep convection.

Environmental conditions are expected to improve under the upper level ridge for the next 12-24 hours. Some further development is expected as this system should track west-southwestwards then west-northwestwards on the northern edge of subtropical high pressures during the next few days. A wide and deep trough should attract the system southward after 72 hours.

The expose LLCC of 24P

I hope that low in the gulf of Mexico will stay in the gulf through the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning and that the clouds dissipate here in Melbourne so that I can do my observation using FIT's new telescope. The weather is very unpredictable here and we need some clear nights to do some observations of transiting exoplanets around other stars which require high level of accuracy since the dip in the light curve of these stars are only a few percent max and any clouds will ruin the observation even with comparison stars and data reduction.
does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008? and what impact itwill possibly have on upcoming hurricane season?? also does nay have any early predictions on upcoming hurricane season activity? thanks for any replys... hank
Happy Easter Weekend to All. And those up late updating too.
does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008?


Technical ENSO Update
19 March 2008

> Current conditions
> Expected conditions
Link



Forecasting El Nino Link

Because El Nino has such a large effect of weather patterns, many wish to forecast its coming. Two approaches are used: Statistical Models and Dynamical Models. Both seem to be equally accurate (or inaccurate).



does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008? and what impact itwill possibly have on upcoming hurricane season??

Go here. They mention in that article that La Niña could weaken a bit (it is already weakening a little bit) during the season, which could potentially alter the steering currents and put the U.S. in danger. They even mention the possibility of neutral conditions for this season, which is even worse (especially if it is a cold bias neutral, which is likely if La Niña weakens into an ENSO neutral event). The strongest La Niña's tend to cause storms to track further south and west, like in 1988 and 2007.

also does nay have any early predictions on upcoming hurricane season activity? thanks for any replys... hank

I'll throw a prediction out there, even though this is not going to count as my true prediction for the season (that'll come May 31): 13/9/4

Also, something else interesting...

Yet another tropical cyclone could hit Madagascar:

LINK 97S

Western Australia has another invest to watch along with 96S that may creep back into the Central Indian Ocean region

Tropical Cyclone Potential
--------------------------
Sunday-Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE
La Nina may not last that much longer, due to extreme (record) levels of heat in the ocean subsurface (also interesting is the upward trend through the period; the last few El Ninos also failed to remove much heat from the ocean, which normally cools during El Ninos and warms during La Ninas - the subsurface, that is):





The CFS forecasts it to completely underspread the surface by next month, and has been trending warmer thereafter (still shows a La Nina though the end of the period/through next fall, but not for long if this continues, it also seems to be underestimating the surface warmth in the eastern Pacific, I also don't see the warm subsurface anomalies simply disappearing/shrinking like it shows without warming the surface/releasing heat):




Currently, the atmosphere itself is still very strongly in a La Nina state (at record levels accoring to one index), but that appears to be the only thing sustaining it right now, since warmer than normal water is already being upwelled (the surface water is normally warmer than the subsurface water, so even warmer than normal subsurface water can still cool the surface, but not as easily and it gets harder as the subsurface warms, which may eventually break down the atmsopheric circulation).
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 22MAR)
==========================
A well marked low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea. It is likely to intensify further in association with the system convective clouds are seen over southeast Arabian Sea.

Convective clouds are also seen over parts of south pennisula of south Andaman Sea
my early season hurricane predictions

3 tropical storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes

1 us landfalling ts
0 us landfalling hurricane

this season is going to be a bust, arthur will come early in the season and everyone will freak out that this season will be monstrous like 2005 but it will turn out to be a record low season

ive had this prediction for 2008 since sept 2007, im not backing out of it now
Currently, the atmosphere itself is still very strongly in a La Nina state (at record levels accoring to one index), but that appears to be the only thing sustaining it right now, since warmer than normal water is already being upwelled (the surface water is normally warmer than the subsurface water, so even warmer than normal subsurface water can still cool the surface, but not as easily and it gets harder as the subsurface warms, which may eventually break down the atmsopheric circulation).

Are you saying that El Niño may develop? Or at least ENSO neutral conditions?

ive had this prediction for 2008 since sept 2007, im not backing out of it now

Look who just earned himself the ignore list. This is something I was hoping to avoid this year (heck, I'm even hoping to avoid the westcasters that want destruction, so don't feel bad), but alas, that's obviously too much to ask for.

Just watch what you say on here.
STL, looking at the subsurface anomalies in the Pacific, I won't be surprised if by the end of Hurricane Season 08 we are in a full fledged El Nino. Maybe a strong one not long after. As the warmer waters are upwelled, the summer sun will have a rapid warming effect on the Pacific. I know the Forecast models are still in the "neutral to Nina" area, but look at the Models 3 months ago, 2 months ago, & last month. There is a definite & consistent upward trend. Continue that trend another 2 months and your'e fairly well into El Nino territory by the end of the season. It will still take time for the effects of this La Nina to dissipate, and I doubt a total shift to El Nino will occur before late 08 Hurricane season but the writing is on the wall for an El Nino by 09. A weakening La Nina to Neutral pattern will make for a nasty season along the Eastern Seaboard.
I disagree with Altesic's forecast. While I dont get into numbers of named storms I believe it will be average to slightly above numberswise but the all important tracks(which is what really matters) I am tending to think will favor the Eastern Seaboard. Florida is not out of the woods but points north are the more likely candidates for a major landfall this year.
Heavy moisture lurking off shore.....
12hours GFS

24hours GFS
LOL...CMC tropical storm!

Is that CMC model picking up the extratropical low forming in the Gulf currently or is that something later on? (Not that I'd put much stock in the CMC just yet)
No, this is the fantasyland of the long-range CMC.
If these so-called models are based on previous weather,(which is what I understand them to be) how could it think there will be tropical activity anytime in the next 3 months? Even the CMC shouldn't be doing that now. That usually starts about May.
LOL...CMC tropical storm!

Morning eaglesrock.

I see that CMC is already beginning to over develop storms LOL. The chances of that occuring are just about as likely as the tropical system the GFS wants to develop out 384 hours near Cape Verde.
Wow, didn't notice that the GFS had one already...maybe tropical season is upon us! LOL!!!!
i'll be the first to say it dont pay attention to cmc its on crack
Morning all.

Be aware; there is a high probability that either the models have ingested some hallucinagenic substance, or the model users have . . .

LOL

I'm just hoping the low in the Gulf goes far enough north of us to keep the day fairly sunny in the north central Bahamas.
Looks like Tampa area and points south are going to get slammed later this morning . ..
The Mid-Atlantic will get slammed with severe weather and 60-80 degree temps next weekend if the DGEX model is right. Just look at those high humidities moving in at 700 and 850 mb, and those temps!


You mean that little thing? LOL! It looks quite wet just looking at the long-range radar out of Tampa. The echo intenseity will only increase as the rain gets closer to the radar base, allowing it to be picked up better.

Link
Don't have be big to sucker-punch. . .
It looks like that storm blew up quite fast!

Link
Its a Short Wave in the GOM,nothing more.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008


.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG BRANCH OF THE JET TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MAIN AXIS OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE IS NOW
STREAMING WITHIN THE FLOW AND BISECTS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS.


GOM IR Loop of the Shear ..and the Poofiness.

IR Loop Link

GOM Low Cloud Product ..Link
Don't have be big to sucker-punch. . .

Exactly...the latest Weatherwise magazine has an article about the little clipper that dropped a foot of snow in NE PA.
as per high def level 2 radar some heavy storms dev over keys sw of fla mainland
looks to be rain southern half of tampa south
Tops to 43K noted



NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Echo Tops Range 124 NMI Link
Cassini Spacecraft Finds Ocean May Exist Beneath Titan's Crust
Story: Link
Tampa? we have 2 seabreeze fronts setting up on the east coast. With the sun shining bright, and the dynamics of the warm front, low in Gulf, there will be some nasty storms here very shortly. Likely popping up long before the west coast activity arrives.
Hopefully quite a bit of the "punch" will fall into the Okeechobee bowl . . .
U.S. Coastal Waters Forecasts by Zone - South - Key West, FL
Coastal Marine Zone Forecasts by the Key West, FL Forecast OfficeLink
Between the precip already falling in Tampa and the skies here on the East Coast(photos on my blog), Lake O will get some good rains.
PSU Electronic E-Wall. Link
dbz running between 51 56 and increasing heavy showers with some thunder over and n of keys with building precip west of west coast precip totals for south fla running between 20 to 30 mm with up to 50 mm in storms
Look for it to fill in rapidly over the southern half of the Peninsula. Skies are darkening quickly here.
16 frame GOM IR loop, PSU Link
Good morning all. Looks like we have a very nice setup for some much needed rainfall in Central and Southern Florida. I'm feeling quite a moisture surge moving northward here. Watching the satellite and radar imagery, I believe you are correct Ivansrvivr. This will be a very unsettled afternoon.
Ivansrvivr-Do you expect any severe weather asociated with that small low in the gulf when it moves across the state?
hey pat heres a good site updates sats every 10 min updates radar every 4 to 6 mins
weatherTAP.com sign up for free trial or become a member for 6.95 a month
it has high def level 2 radar with lots of sat enhancements
All I have to do is look out the window. There will be showers and thunderstorms developing over Eastern Palm Beach Co anytime now.
The main severe weather threats for Southern and Central Florida will be possible localized flooding, small hail, and dangerous lightning. I don't see these storms producing very strong winds or even tornadoes, although it can't be ruled out.
its building nicly cchs as for any severe maybe a couple of more hrs
Thanks,.. all radars are useful tools.
Possibly in the areas south and east of the solid area of rain that is moving E from Tampa. The sun has been out and it looks very unstable here.
I do agree with CC that the severe threat is more like our typical summer severe threat. Still there is a warm front moving northward and that will produce some turning of winds at different heights. I still think that heavy rain and lightning are the biggest concern.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008


...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO...PRIMARILY OVER MARTIN...
SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER...A RAPID INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH...MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO...FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND
OTHER LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS MARTIN...
SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD APPROACH ONE INCH IN
THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE SURF
ZONE AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...RESULTING IN A HIGH RISK
OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS TODAY. BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH
BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS BEFORE VENTURING INTO THE WATER.
SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. EVEN THOSE
USING SURF OR BOOGIE BOARDS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THE TREASURE COAST AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...DUE TO GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NORTH INTERIOR SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
Thank You-We can certainly use the rainfall but do not want any of the rough stuff.
The storm popping in coastal southern Broward co is the one to watch. I wont be surprised if develops northward quickly
your welcome pat
We're lucky that this is not hurricane season as we could have been looking at a possible tropical system developing in the GOM. There has been a very intense convective burst building in the GOM. Just take a look at these satellite images.

Great news. Based upon satellite loops, if that convective burst maintains itself, it will move directly over Lake Okeechobee late this afternoon and will linger for several hours. Looks like rainfall rates near 3 inches per hour with this convection.
StormW that is exactly what i think is likely to happen. The deep waters have warmed to the point where upwelling isn't going to feed this La Nina much longer at all. The strengthening sun will warm the upwelled waters quickly as spring leads into summer. Then the SOI will drop like a rock as warm anomalies spread from both sides of the Pacific. Still I don't think it will be into El Nino until after this hurricane season is done. I think this hurricane season will be "La Nina to ENSO neutral" overall as it will take time for La Nina's effects to wane.
As I was telling Adrian last night, these "little" low pressure systems can strengthen quickly over the Gulf when there is ample moisture available.
This is quite interesting. Let me know what you see here.
ive been a member now for almost a year storm yes it very good site i really like features as well and the updating freqency is what i like the most every 4 to 6 mins with that radar and every 10 to 15 mins for sats
I have a question...

With all this flooding to the north, what does this mean for us along the Mississippi river here in south Louisiana? Any ideas when the river will crest here?

Might be interesting to take a peek over the levee.
CC, those winds indicate a stronger than expected surface low forming in the Gulf. The northeast side has the strongest winds but it has a definite closed circulation. (Thats what I see.)
168 Hmann. Unless there is more heavy rain further south, the Mississippi wont flood where you are. It will drain slowly south and its many tributaries and wide path will reduce the crest the further south you go.
I have a question...

With all this flooding to the north, what does this mean for us along the Mississippi river here in south Louisiana? Any ideas when the river will crest here?

Might be interesting to take a peek over the levee.


High river puts city on alert
Thursday March 20, 2008, 9:06 PM
Story: Link

At 69W looks like the Bermuda high is in it's classic August position.
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued March 20, 2008 by W456

Main Indicators

ENSO
Rainfall Patterns over Western Africa
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
Continuations of above average activity

Overview of Indicators

During El Nino, high SST over the eastern Pacific causes more deep convection there. The resultant outflow aloft enhances upper tropospheric westerlies over the Caribbean and western equatorial Atlantic. Consequently, the 200 mb anticyclonic flow necessary for tropical cyclones to develop is reduced. During Neutrals and weak to moderate La Nina, low SSTs over the eastern Pacific suppress deep convection there. The resultant subsidence enhances lift and weak to moderate upper level easterlies over the Tropical Atlantic Summer, which favors tropical cyclone development.

West Africa represents the birth place of most Atlantic tropical cyclones. It is also the origin of the West African Dust outbreaks known as the Sahara Air Layer. Wetter than normal conditions over Sub-Shara Africa indicate wetter and cooler tropical waves decreasing the temperature gradient between the sea surface temperature and the 700 mb wave axis and suppressing convection. However, wetter than normal conditions also indicate reduce dust phenomena during the season. Drier than normal conditions produces hotter waves at 700 mb and as they move over the cooler sea surface temperatures, the temperature difference is enough to initiate convection which is needed for cyclogenesis. Though, drier conditions over West Africa means enhanced African Dust.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low. The negative NAO index phase shows a weak and further centralized subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low. Negative NAO values imply more ridging in the central Atlantic and a warm North Atlantic Ocean due to stronger southerly winds during this period. Positive NAO values imply more ridging in the Eastern Atlantic and cooler sea surface temperatures especiallu along the West African Coast. A stronger ridge also indicate the probability of drier conditions over West Africa.

During the QBO, Atlantic tropical cyclones are more frequent when 30 mb winds are westerly and increasing, rather than easterly and increasing. There have been 44% more hurricanes and 74% more hurricane days during the west as opposed to east phase of the QBO.

Overview of Current and Extended Conditions

The current ENSO forecast calls for a weakening La Nina from now till June. During the months of May to August, temperature anomalies are forecast to be slightly cooler to near neutral conditions. Weak to neutral La Nina favor a slight increase in both the number of hurricanes and their intensity. These neutral conditions will extend into the remainder of the season up to November.

Over the past six months, there have been drier than normal conditions over Sub-Shara Africa which will indicate hotter and drier African Waves and increase Saharan Dust. Hotter and drier waves are more favored to produce convection as they enter the Atlantic and I believe this maybe the case between dust outbreaks. Also, a more eastward and stronger subtropical ridge (Positive NAO) will favor drier and dustier conditions and a more westward and weaker ridge (Negative NAO). Currently, the NAO index is near neutral but forecast to enter negative values this April which may indicate cooler Central Atlantic SSTs but warmer SSTs west of 60W and east of 30W.

The current tropical winds between 30 mb and 50 mb over the Tropical Atlantic are easterly and that corresponds to a 40 yr average between 1950-1999 of 8.53 storms. Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is inhibited during easterly phases of the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric wind ventilation and increased upper-troposphere-lower stratosphere wind shear. However, the trend of these stratospheric winds is decreasing and if this trend continues, the July 50-30 mb winds will enter a more weak easterly to weak westerly phase.

The Forecast

Based on the above information, adjustments to the normal seasonal average can be made. The 1950-2005 NOAA average is 11.0 named storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. An addition of 2 storms for weak La Nina to Neutral. An addition of 2 storms for hotter tropical waves and subtraction of 1 storm for enhanced Saharan Conditions. An addition of 1 storm for negative NAO for April and an addition of 1 storm for expected QBO conditions. An addition of 1 storm for continuation of above normal tropical cyclone activity of past hurricane seasons

Preliminary Seasonal Forecast 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Note: This forecast is subject to change and will be updated in May to inlcude SLP anomalies, 200 mb winds, 50 mb winds, sea surface temperatures and tracks.


Figure 1. CFS Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Forecast


Figure 2. 6-month Accumulated Precipitation % of Normal
Seasonal Forecasts are not an Indicator of what will happen, Its a guess at best.
Another view of the CMC showing a 'cane near Florida:

Storm, I meant the GOM.
true pat its like pissing in the wind who knows where its gonna go
iam getting some 55dbz signutures n of keys just south of mainland which indicates storms reaching severe levels
Forecasts, the seasonal Hurricane types are full of Many Variables. A MIT Super Puter cant crunch all the numbers, lets alone a Human.
I never look at one..nor worry over them.
Following the real storms and Observing them in the real time is best to understands the Single storm.Let alone 6 months worth. And No one nor computer can get a Handle on upwelling trends in a future scenario. Thats why I focus on Impacts and aftereffects. It's where the science meets the coastline, and Humans.
i tell it like it is jfv i wont lie or make more of it than it is and when it comes to weather its a crap shoot anything goes
my moto is
it can and will change everytime
179. Patrap 11:49 AM AST on March 22, 2008
Seasonal Forecasts are not an Indicator of what will happen, Its a guess at best.


Well if that is the case, then that is my guess.

Thanks JFV
Great Job 456.

456, Post La Nina seasons have been bad for the Eastern Seaboard 4 times in a row. Think Hugo, Isabelle, Gloria for examples. Your forecast of a stronger Eastward Bermuda high seems to indicate the same thing. I don't ever focus on numbers of named storms but I think it will be average to slightly above average. Steering is the key. The I'm thinking early Carribean development would tend westward, the cape verde storms could be bad for the Carolinas, while late season Carribean development would tend towards Florida.
JFV, to answer your question, I've decided to hold back on my predictions since there are changes occuring now with La Nina and since I want to gather more data before I make them official predictions. I apologize for the delay.
197. GBlet
Hello everyone! The gomex looks ripe today. Can anyone tell me what effect La Nina has on the upcoming tornado season? Living in the middle of "Tornado Alley" can make a person nuts sometimes. We are hoping to not repeat last year!
Interesting numbers, 456.

I don't think they are out of the ball park, IF the forecast conditions materialize. I think the key variable will be how much the La Nina moderates, and to what extent. If we are practically at El Nino by November, I'd be very surprised.

I'm also wondering how much of an increase in SSTs we will see between Jun and August. If we are in an ENSO-neutral state by Sept-Oct, warmer than usual waters in the MDO would mean major landfalling storms are more likely.
200. JFV 12:35 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Hey Weatherman, would your website enter some kind or type of emergency mode; if there ever were a major hurricane headed directly towards South Florida?


Of course, JFV. I'll be working my site, making constant emails, and on the phone quite often. Always looking out for everyone.

203. GBlet
I miss Bonedog.....
The warm MDO waters have been absent the last few years. (I believe due to the "hyperactive 04 and 05 seasons) This may be the year they return. I know most forecasters and models arent expecting El Nino conditions anytime soon but look at the Pacific. Warm anomalies are eating away at the current La Nina from both ends and from below. While I do think El Nino conditions are possible by the end of the season, I don't think they will occur anywhere near soon enough to have a significant impact on this years' Atlantic Hurricane season. I think it will be effectively Nina to Neutral this season.
If you look at all the next season forecasts they are all shots in the dark. Nobody predicted last season right before it started. Were all just guessing. It's not much different than filling out your Brackets for college basketball. As the season nears there will be more guesses and predictions. Lets just hope that there's no loss of life or property this season.
Yes JFV. Why?
JFV, by the time the season starts there will 30-40times the current traffic on this blog daily. There will be so much traffic here you will have more resources than you could ever imagine.
Looks like a warm front has formed out ahead of the low. This will bring rain up past Tampa Link
Hey folks for florida radars use my page you cant go wrong ive added many sites that will be of great use during days like today.SEE HERE
Hurricane... great site, but the link for the tampa/ruskin radar is wrong. It links to the tallahassee radar instead.
Re: 201

About the SSTs, I was saying that warmer waters generally mean storms which form have more fuel to become - and remain - major hurricanes, which makes landfall at those higher strengths possible. So far, temps haven't been anomalously warm across the bulk of the tropical ATL, so we may not have to worry about deep pools of warm water building up.

Unfortunately, as the past has proven numerous times, it only takes one strike to ruin a summer . . .
dbz approaching 60 63 in se fla mainland w sw of miami
Watching radar loops, it appears that storms have begun to explode across South Florida and have now begun to fill in over the area. Prepare for some very heavy rainfall over several hours. This will be one nasty afternoon where you'll need to make indoor plans for all areas Tampa southward. FLWeatherFreak, that is not the warm front coming up into Tampa. The warm front can clearly be seen over the Florida Keys, moving norhtward into Southern Florida. You guys are just getting a moisture surge in correlation with the approaching warm front.
214. FLWeatherFreak91 1:21 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Hurricane... great site, but the link for the tampa/ruskin radar is wrong. It links to the tallahassee radar instead.

Link fixed sorry about that scroll down you can always use the tampa radar from dupage.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SPREADING MOSTLY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL VARY
SOME ON THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE.
Youre right about it taking one and that's why I find steering and tracks much more important than total number of named systems.
I will be back later. I'll be watching the radar.
220. Ivansrvivr 1:35 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Youre right about it taking one and that's why I find steering and tracks much more important than total number of named systems.


I think total number does matter, in that the more storms there are "out there", the greater chance there is that one will hit you. So I prioritize (steering =1, count = 2) rather than not paying attention to count. For example, 1992 was terrible for Florida, but 2004 was worse.

I'm just hoping we don't get a "worst case scenario", with repeat intense storms over the same general area the way we did in '04. That wasn't much fun.
I've gotta go also. Back this evening.

Hope it doesn't rain here . . .
BAHA-HURRICANE-Amen to that.I am refering to that comment you made about 2004 Hurricane season.
entire west fla coast tampa s to keys fully engulfed with newest dev max dbz 59 collier south nice rains
I recall several years (the last two being perfect examples) that were above normal in numbers but the steering prevented US landfalls, i suppose if you wanted to get technical about it there was something of a Florida landfall in 06 but steering pushed the majors away. Steering was what made 04 a nightmare for Florida and the late 90's so bad for the Carolinas. Steering also kept Florida from being hit through the 80s until 99.
I forgot the 2 that hit Pensacola in 95. But that too was steering.
now we wait and see what it spins up to be
as it gets to the east
and the western sea
I'm back now.
There is now new convection developing farther out into the GOM on the western quadrant of the surface low. Widespread rain and storms have now overspread all Miami-Dade county with some quite impressive rainfall totals starting to accumulate. Only a matter of time before all this rain moves into my area and really gives us a much-needed soaking. Here are the latest satellite images.



Taking a look at the satellite imagery, could we daresay that there looks to be some tropical development taking place? The QuikSCAT I posted earlier had indicated a closed surface circulation with some 30kt+ winds. You can also see convection has begun building on the western portion. Something just seems unusual regarding this system. Looks more tropical to me than extratropical.
lets just watch cchs
The ares of low-level circ. is under 30 knt shear compared to 50 which lies to its east...I believe the low shows tropical characteristics although it's not going anywhere big...
Does this system have a warm core or cold core?
Is it all that surprising that the low would have some tropical characteristics? SSTs are marginal. There is warm tropical air being drawn in to the system. It is likely tropical at the surface, but not up top. Upper level winds are too strong for it to fully develop as a tropical system. We need a good tropical downpour over the entire peninsula.
Lets just call it Sub-tropical.
AMSU says neither warm core nor cold core.
It looks cold core to me...in any case if this was late May or June then this would have a better, significant shot at tropical genesis (as ocean temperatures would be warmer and shear would be reduced).

Cyclone Phase Diagrams from the UKMET model show a deep, asymmetric cold core.
that low in the cyclone phase diagram is future cyclone. Is that same as the one as in the Gulf?
The upper level overcast is overhead now. It doesn't have that "tropical" look to it. Looks more like a winter type system. Any tropical characteristics would likely be confined to the surface. If it were June or July, with calm upper level winds, It wouldn't take long for it to go tropical.
W456 - the UKMET initiates that storm 18 hours from now. It was the closest I could find since none of the other models have phase diagrams on the current system (NOGAPS and CMC initiate the low once it has emerged off of the east coast of Florida).
the convection on the western side of the low could be the formation of a cold front.
The NOGAPS and CMC are a bit late on this one.
Hey guys. It had gotten very dark here is West Palm Beach, but no rain, at least at my neighborhood, to speak of.
JFV, there's a flood advisory out for your county.

Link
if and i say if it would dev warning would have litle time if any at all at this point hunker down wait it out things can change in a blink of an eye
Seems like the NWS has changed their tune quite a bit in terms of possible severe weather and how strong the cold front will be once it passes through South Florida.
NWS Miami Forecast Discussion
Southeast Florida should prepare for some significant flooding as it appears the warm front has been moving much slower than anticipated. In addition, it appears the warm front and the GOM low will merge together later this evening and really enhance the rainfall and storms over the area. Surprisingly, still no rain here in Cooper City, although the skies have become terribly dark. Just heard the first rumble of thunder today while typing this. Radar imagery for South Florida is below.
Anyone there? Starting to look very ominous here. How you hanging in there JFV? Has the flooding started to get very bad?
...much water. Good thing Florida very porous.
Nothing severe but its coming down pretty good thats for sure.Moderate to Heavy Rainfall.

In the radar link provided by Adrian, it appears like a bow-echo has formed just north of Key West. If any severe weather does develop in South Florida from this system, it will be once the surface low moves onland and interacts with the warm front.
JFV, not much has happened thus far. That intense rainfall you guys have been receiving seems to be moving northward at a snail's pace causing some amazing training to occur. Once those rains reach here, which will take only about another 10 to 15 minutes, then I'll finally have some action to report. Stay safe JFV.
Remember, turn around-don't drown!!!
Appears like the surface low has just begun making it overland as I have noticed quite an eastward surge in precipitation on radar. Looks like the heavy rains have only just begun here in Cooper City. Anyone else notice this on radar? Something else to point out; on satellite imagery it seems like the convection continues to build back on itself out in the GOM as it continues to move eastward into Southern Florida. Not like it already hasn't happened, but someone could really get some flooding rains from training. Not looking very good now and it shows no signs of slowing down or weakening anytime soon.
I'm in the teeny hole in the rainfall in Palm Beach Co. The only spot in 100+ miles that's not getting poured on. That won't last though.
On radar, it appears that I should brace for several hours with steady moderate to heavy rainfall upcoming. This will be only the second time this entire year where I'll have rain lasting for more than 15 minutes at a time. Very excited right now.
CC, I don't think that's the low moving onshore. Looks more like the low is strengthening and the mid and upper level winds are carrying the Precip northeastward. If the Low was moving onshore, the warm front would be moving northward much faster. It is still hanging in the keys indicating the low is still fairly far out in the GOM
I have been saying this since early Jan - this winter/spring are going agaist all logic. Here we are in a Strong La Nina and it we are getting rain every 3-5 here in West Central Fl. Right now we have a nice steady rain shield covering the entire area. Make no sense to me at all but I'll take the rain.
You're right Ivansrvivr. Made a mistake there.
I'M FROM INDIANA, WHAT WILL THIS RAIN TO TO EASE THE ISSUES AT Lake Okeechobee?
I should have raked the yard yesterday so that the rain could penetrate fully into the ground. I have so many leaves on my yard that I don't know how much rain it will penetrate through the ground.
1.5 inches will hopefully bring much needed water to Lake Okeechobee. However; most of the heavy rain is currently to the south and west of Miami.
HUH?
TerraNova, Lake Okeechobee is in South-Central Florida. You're thinking about Lake Ponchitrain right now.
trunkmonkey- If you could rephrase your question into some form of understandable English then someone will answer you lol. I have no idea what the hell that was supposed to mean
THANK YOU CCHSWEATHERMAN
Very little I'm afraid. We average nearly 60 inches per year here. We depend on the summer rains. This is the "dry season" and from now thru June it may not rain another drop. Last summer, all the rains fell where it wouldn't drain into the lake. Anything helps, but what is 3-5 inches compared to the 40-60 that falls in the summer and fall. We're honestly very lucky we're getting this rain.
trunkmonkey, I assume you meant "to do", that's ok :-)

... And to answer you, hopefully a lot.
with the low lake levels at Lake Okeechobee, will this rain have an inpact of filling the lake back up?
3-5 inches over Lake O and the Kissimmee valley to it's north will raise the lake half an inch
trunkmonkey- Lake O is a huge lake, any rain is better than no rain. But it will take more then a biblical amount event to fill it up in one rain event.
For Reference and Linkage;
Severe Weather Text Page
Note: This browser will refresh itself every 5 minutes. Link
LOL I know I changed it right after I posted it. These lakes get me confused sometimes.
The lake while huge, but it has shrunk to less than 2/3rds it's normal size. When the level rises now, it goes out as much as up.
CC, this rain will soak in just fine.
Just like Ivansrvivr said; a half inch, but Lake O is significantly lower than just by half an inch. Infact it is currently at 10.17ft and average is 14.09ft . But again, 1/2 inch will be better then 0.
u need a hurricane to fill that lake in one shot
teardrops won't do. =)
The lake will also drop dramatically as we move into spring and temps heat up but the humidity is still low. Sun angle will also evap more water out of the lake as we move into spring so it needs every drop it can get.
HERE ARE SOME YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR 2007 INTO 2008 AND THE 14 MONTH PERIOD
COVERING FROM JANUARY 1, 2007 TO MARCH 19, 2008.
NOAA Hydro Link Link

AIRPORTS 14 MONTH : 14 MONTH : DRY : DRY TOTALS DEPARTURES
TOTALS DEPARTURES SEASON SEASON
07-08 TOTAL 07-08 DEP.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 71.29 : 7.49 : 8.90 : -2.18
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 69.44 : -3.67 : 16.25 : 1.73
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 75.46 : 5.33 : 14.54 : -2.63
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 37.73 : -19.73 : 3.67 : -5.37

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 46.45 : -9.74 : 4.98 : -3.58
DEVILS GARDEN : 40.24 : -10.91 : 6.67 : -3.19
CLEWISTON : 40.71 : -9.97 : 9.13 : -1.80
BELLE GLADE : 53.52 : -9.08 : 7.14 : -0.49
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 34.98 : -18.56 : 9.51 : -1.56
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 48.35 : -6.69 : 6.73 : -3.04
MIAMI BEACH : 73.07 : 13.64 : 12.06 : 0.36

AS A RESULT...GLADES COUNTY REMAINS IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITION
(D3). THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY...ALONG WITH
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA REMAIN IN A SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS
(D2)...WHILE THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY REMAINS IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT STATUS (D1). MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY HAVE BEEN PUT INTO A MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS (D1)...WHILE
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS AND METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY REMAIN
IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATUS (D0). THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES WERE NOT IN A DROUGHT STATUS.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

WELLS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS ARE AT THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT
LEVEL...WHILE THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WERE 10 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WELLS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS ARE AT ADEQUATE LEVELS OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ROSE
ABOUT 2 TENTHS OF A FOOT TO AROUND 10.2 FEET DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF MARCH. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 4 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.
A hurricane isn't going to do much for the lake. Remember the SFLWMD will drain the canal system that the lake feeds before a tropical system. What we need is a good rainy season with lots of afternoon thunderstorms.
The storms north of Key West have been weakening. Max dBZ has dropped from 57 to 52 in the last few images. The coverage of the lighter rain; however, has expanded considerably.

That's alot of moderate to major flooding


VALLEY PARK, Mo. (AP) — Residents in this community along the Meramec River are crossing their fingers that the town's new earthen levee, built to withstand a 100-year flood, will pass its first big test.

The surging Meramec was expected to crest at a record 40 feet on Saturday — 24 feet above flood stage.

Flood-weary residents in Missouri, Arkansas and Ohio fought to save their homes Friday after heavy rainstorms pushed swollen rivers out of their banks, and a fresh snowstorm blew through parts of the Upper Midwest, canceling flights and some Good Friday services.

In southern Missouri, several breached levees released floodwaters that forced authorities to evacuate towns west of Cape Girardeau. At least 200 homes and 13 businesses have been evacuated in Cape Girardeau County, said emergency management director Dick Knaup.

At least 70 Missouri counties have reported flooding this week.

Patrap showed perfectly why the lake is so low. All the rain fell on the East Coast last summer and very little went inland (most unusual) We got poured on everyday over here but none made it to the kissimmee valley or Lake O. This is the only place in the world where it can rain everyday but youre still in a drought.
yeah, so it won't flood. After the 1928 hurricane, they built that dam.
Terra, that is the norm here. Those storms used up the heat that they were feeding on and are now weakening. It is possible for more to re-fire once the old ones die off.
The Missouri Event continues...and is very bad still as Skyepony pointed out.
Forecasts for Missouri — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather Link
Storm total on the left, base reflectivity on the right.

Terra, look at the sat of the GOM. There is more convection firing to the west of what you see on radar.
Up until the TX last year I can't really remember much flooding like this. We're talking 20 ' above flood stage in some places.


The flooding is likely only going to get worse ("a sign of things to come" as NOAA puts it):




Luckily I don't have to worry about my house getting flooded even though I live less than 2 miles from the Meramec River (it has totally flooded out one of the roads into my neighborhood though).


(red dot is where I live, the Meramec is at the bottom)
Thanks Ivansrvivr, I'm not as familiar with FL storms as I am with supercell activity farther north. It must be the tropical moisture and today the warm air advection from the south is strong; correct?
Having seen what storm surge does on the Gulf coast, it is very saddening seeing flood damage. I'd take wind over surge/flood anyday.
Looks like a Spring as in 97 maybe Skyepony.
They may have to Open the Bonnett Carre Spillway above US if the trend continues.



High river puts city on alert
Thursday March 20, 2008, 9:06 PM
Story: Link

Terra, look at the sat of the GOM. There is more convection firing to the west of what you see on radar.

Ya I know...but that's not what I was talking about.
Correct. Throw in some seabreeze action which adds lift. You won't see tornadoes much or large hail, but we get rains like what have fallen in the midwest fairly often.
Spillway to the Left into Lake Pontchartrain..
Miss. River is the water right of the Spillway Structure. Link

Corps of Engineers -- The Bonnet Carre' Spillway
The Bonnet Carre' Spillway is a vital element of the comprehensive plan for flood control in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Link
The Mississippi river will not be quick to receed either. Not in that part of the country.
Latest surface analysis:


Photobucket
Low is not onshore yet. It will rain like this possibly all night.
Probably get a little noisy later tonight too.
That's peggged at 1013mb now.
It's quite noisy here now.
Still experiencing a steady moderate rainfall here in Cooper City. This is very good news. Much more to come from out in the GOM.
There is a good area of rain over the kissimmee valley and the southern area of rain has reached Lake O. The Low is not moving quickly. This is just the kind of rain we need. Moderate to almost heavy and steady.
cold front developing out gom assc. with surface low
threat of severe along cold front
The rain falling now is stabilizing the atmosphere so severe wx would seem less likely. this is a much more vigorous low than was predicted so I wouldn't rule it out.
Looks like the rain will continue through the evening in the Bay area.
the rain falling now has stabilized the atmosphere making severe wx less likely. However this low is much more vigorous than forecast so I wouldn't rule it out.
Hey Nash. Happy Easter.
Same to you Ivan!
Nice to see you again Nash. What are you seeing right now?
sun going down now iam losing vis
Has anyone looked at this system on the water vapor loop? It looks like the energy driving this system is closer to Texas than FL. It drawing moisture off the yucatan.
The Weather in Texas is another Low/Cold Front dissociated from that 1013mb GOM Low near Fla, that is a Short wave Low along the old frontal Boundary.


Surface fronts animated Link

GOES-IR Loop GOM Link
Patrap, check the WV loop. it looks like the trough driving this system is farther back in the GOM.
The rainband north of tampa extends into the GOM and is easing southward. There will still at least be some showers or T-showers overnight for West Central Fl.
picking up 60 dbz sw awon park
It feels like hurricane season posting all these graphs...but look how quickly shear is decreasing. Could this mean an early start to hurricane season?

eagles dont worry iam sure
2008 will be great!
Shear is just one of many elements needed for tropical development. That drop in shear could indicate an early start to the Cape Verde season. Lower shear doen't help much if there are no triggers for development or SSTs are too cool.
eagle we got 5 hrs and 67 days edt to go
National Hurricane Preparedness Week

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

Link
Tropical Cyclones Climatology Page

Subject: G1) When is hurricane season? Link

Home page Link
heavy trailing rain s side of tampa to sarasoda south
Could this mean an early start to hurricane season?

I doubt that very much. There is a huge amount of dry air (SAL), across the entire Atlantic ocean.
Looks like Lake O is getting some much needed rainfall.
Flooding in S IL by Hawg8

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF COAST
STATES JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE W OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER S LOUISIANA TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S.
INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST MOVING INTO THE NW GULF. A ILL-DEFINED 1013 MB LOW IS IN
THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW TO
THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E FROM THE 1013 MB LOW ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND
FORT MYERS THEN DIPS S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC S OF
WEST PALM BEACH. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 24N-29N E OF 87W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED.

The GFS seems to want to develop an invest in the long-range...this has been on 3 straight runs now.

Evening everybody. I'm watching this system over FL with interest. One reason is that, while it seems to be dropping quite a lot of rain on the South FL area, so far Nassau hasn't seen a drop.



Looks like Grand Bahama and Abaco are getting a soaking, though.
eagle,

can you reduce the size of the image you just posted?

Thanks.
If one has IE instead of Firefox here.
You wont get images resized automatically.


Firefox2,Link is recommended by wunderground developers. For all your weather browsing needs here.
Baha: I will do it, but if you get Firefox, then resizing won't be necessary.

This is to other people, too.
I am currently trying Firefox for the first time. It is a little slower than Safari 3.1 but it is smooth. I am impressed
Auto spell checker is included in Firefox 2 also.
US SATELLITE OVERLAYS LAST OBS: 00UTC 23MAR08
SFC PRES/RADAR Loop Link
Eagles or anyone else; on post #337 I have a question; is it the yellow on the equator that the GFS is developing? if so, how can that be? I thought systems can't develop that far south, so I don't think it is. So I think it's the system closer to 13-15°North. I would just like to make sure I know what I'm seeing, and what I think I'm seeing is correct. Thanks in advance!
Its a model that all.
Dont give anything any credence till May at least.
And the season Never Starts that far east in the Atlantic.
Most early invest form in the BOC, Southern GOM, or Caribbean.
Models ..especially long range ones..are not Gospel.
One can watch the Last 10 days of Waves in the Atlantic here.
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Link
I actually like the spellchecker in safari better.
Looks like more to come for South Florida. Have a great night and Happy Easter to you all.

rain here in Punta Gorda Fl all day long now we have lighting
Yes Pat, thanks. I just wanted to make sure I was looking at what I thought I was. :)
I doubt that very much. There is a huge amount of dry air (SAL), across the entire Atlantic ocean.

True. African dust outbreaks are quite common during the Spring and even early summer (June and July).

Its a model that all.
Dont give anything any credence till May at least.
And the season Never Starts that far east in the Atlantic.
Most early invest form in the BOC, Southern GOM, or Caribbean.
Models ..especially long range ones..are not Gospel.


Well said. Actually, I'd think an invest would be more likely to form in the subtropical Atlantic than anywhere else at this time of year. I believe the Category 2 hurricane of March 1908 that struck the Leeward Islands originated north of the islands in the subtropical Atlantic.

And yeah, models definitely aren't gospel. I wouldn't worry about any of this until around May 15.
New blog entry and pics of Antarctic cruise are should be up--and they are in my photo section.
Happy Easter everyone! The weather looks great along much of the eastern seaboard and the southwest.
Hi, first time poster, not new to the site, I have been watching from 2005.

Is this year going to be a La Nina, El Nino, or ENSO?
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The upper flow across the Gulf has become northwesterly between a weak trough along 85W and a broad ridge over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This flow is relatively dry and confluent in nature providing for stable conditions in the mid-upper levels across Mexico, the Southern United States and the Gulf west of 85W. At the surface, observations through 1500 UTC indicated a weak frontal boundary lies across the Northern Gulf from the Big Ben area of Florida to the Texas Mexican border. This feature remains absent of significant shower activity due to the stable environment it is embedded in...shallow clouds exist instead. Another more define frontal trough boundary extends from near 23N/90W across the Southern Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are within 60 nmi of the front/trough over the Gulf and within 200 nmi over Florida.

The surface flow over the Gulf this afternoon is being maintained by a strong 1035 mb high over the Upper Plains. QuikSCAT, surface observations and DMSP SSM/I Microwave Imagery revealed northeast winds of 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf, increasing to 20 knots in the Central and Western Gulf. Northeasterly swells over the entire Gulf at 1-2 ft over the Eastern part, increasing to 5-6 ft over open waters of the Central Gulf, then subsiding to 3-4 ft over the Western Gulf, mainly along the coast of Mexico, Texas and Louisiana.

A band of overcast cloudiness and showers continues across the Southern Florida, across the extreme Northern Bahamas to beyond 30N/70W. Wind shifts reported by marine stations indicated the presence of a frontal boundary and this further supported by frontal rope structures at the leading edge of the cloud band. Meanwhile, a well define high is analyzed 1025 mb at 31N/49W based on visible imagery and surface analysis (See Below). Patches of broken cloudiness is seen rotating around the flow of the high from 40W to 70W south of 27N. Fair weather is noted elsewhere.

by W456

Central Subtropics



Analysed surface flow based on the motion of cloud elements

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A sharp upper trough is digging across the Western Caribbean along 85W to 8N. Meanwhile, the western flank of an upper ridge dominates the remainder of the area east of the trough. The southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow between these two features is advecting scattered cirrus streamers over the basin from 83W to 60W. Meanwhile, surface high pressure north of our region is maintaining 20 knot tradewind flow east of 80W decreasing to below 10 knots west of 80W, with the highest trades along the South American Coast near 30 knots. These trades will bring patches of moisture into the region, causing few passing showers mainly across the Northern Caribbean. Otherwise, fair weather dominates. Seas have substantially subsided to 3-4 ft over the Eastern Caribbean shores, increasing to 6-8 ft over the open Caribbean Sea to 80W and subside once more to 3-4 ft beyond. The highest seas are 10 ft right along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean, where the pressure gradient has tighten between the subtropical ridge and the climatological heat low over Colombia.

by W456
I was just about to comment that the Low didnt push the front southward as it passed, maybe a new low is forming to the west, or yesterdays low hasnt moved much. We have very unstable conditions here on the east coast.
I had 6 inches of rain yesterday/this morning.
thundershowers still occurring over s fla
hey all. how can i send the doc pics?
i have some awesome pictures from the impressive waves brought to Puerto Rico from a winter storm in the north atlantic.
would love to share them .
Storms developing here on East Coast. Got a good photo of how dark and low those clouds are hanging.
by the way dos any one see any thing missing???


366. benirica 1:42 PM AST on March 23, 2008
hey all. how can i send the doc pics?
i have some awesome pictures from the impressive waves brought to Puerto Rico from a winter storm in the north atlantic.
would love to share them .


Look in the upper right hand corner of the blog under About JeffMasters.....click on Contact This Blog's Aurthor. This will then send you to wunder email page so you can send him the links to the images or web page(s) where the images are located via wunder email.
heavy storms sse of lake o offshore miami and north of there fla 66 dbz max some rotation detected
I was taking pics a few minutes ago, and I noticed that the low level clouds were moving westward. That means a seabreeze is setting up. That could add fuel to the fire, and even promote rotation in stronger storms.
One silver lining: Lake Lanier, GA flood plain got over 2 inches of rain
showers thunder diminishing movin out clearing shortly with breezy somewhat cooler conditions s se fla
359. weatherfromFlorida 11:42 AM EDT
Hi, first time poster, not new to the site, I have been watching from 2005.

Is this year going to be a La Nina, El Nino, or ENSO?


Welcome to the blog weatherfromflorida. ENSO = ElNino Southern Oscillation, It's comprised of the extremes of ELNino, and LaNina, and the neutral conditions inbetween.

Here's an explanation (others abound)& an update.
ENSO

ENSO Update
is this the last cold front set up????

I hope so. I'm sick of the cold.
Good evening everyone! How are the tropics looking? Any new updates?
376. KoritheMan 8:53 PM CDT on March 23, 2008
is this the last cold front set up????

I hope so. I'm sick of the cold.



You aren't the only one; here is something the Chicago NWS put up today:

Wisconsin is certainly also sick of snow by now as well:


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
730 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...MADISON WINTER SEASONAL SNOWFALL EXCEEDS THE CENTURY MARK...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVING THE DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT IN MADISON 0.4
INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 7PM.

THIS PUSHED THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE 2007-2008 WINTER SEASON TO
100.1 INCHES. THIS SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 76.1 INCHES DURING
THE 1978-79 WINTER SEASON.


2 feet above the old record... that will also all melt and cause even more flooding, especially since the wet pattern looks to continue.
That pic was funny in a weird way, STL. Heh.
Hope you all had a great Easter Weekend.
I didn't hear about the south Florida flooding many of you seem to be talking about, but I was having a great vacation all week at a water management conference.
Good Morning Folks.......A little cooler weather over the next few days for the SE/North Florida as some dry/cold air pushes in but it should be nice for the next week....Also, the Bermuda High will start to develop and slide into it's Springtime position off the coast; who knows where it will be during the peak of Hurricane Season but where it "parks" over the next two months will be a factor in early season predictions as far as potential CONUS threats......(Same predicitons last year which forcasted a dire situation for the Gulf/Florida which, thankfully, never materialized)........You just never know and I am no fan of long-term predictions when it comes to H season....
GM all,still waiting for a little preview of spring here in New England,but do see anything for the forseeable future,hope everyone is safe in the flood areas of the Mississippi
Good Morning from 11n 61w.
Looking at the Sat. Images and the water vapour loops today, and noting some un-seasonal equatorial moisture in the mid/low altitudes from 30w to 55 w or thereabouts.
Also, no sign of Sahara dust as yet and this is good/bad. By this time last year the dust was thick, and I suggested a "boo" Atlantic Hurricane season. Came to pass too. The 2 storms that became major Hurricanes last year only got going when they passed 60 w, out of the influence of the SAL.
The current set up could of course change tomorow, and other things also apply.
In the meantime, I'm saying that if we dont see an increase in SAL before June, I would expect that this year the Tropical Atlantic could become a most interesting area ................
Morning All!

We got that much anticipated rain Storm W. A little more than expected as well, smiles all around. Good day to ya.
Good morning
Broward County seemed to get the most out of this storm SW. Over 5" on Saturday alone and tons more yesterday.
Weekend rain not enough to dent drought

By John Holland and Chrystian Tejedor | Sun-Sentinel.com
9:17 AM EDT, March 24, 2008

Lake Okeechobee picked up a few drops of rain over the soggy weekend, but nowhere near enough to eliminate drought conditions, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

"It's not enough to see us recover," meteorologist Barry Baxter said. "It kind of counterbalances the evaporation this time of year. It keeps us in the status quo."

Most of the weekend's rain fell south and east of the lake, which means the water is carried out into the ocean, Baxter said.
Storm you only got .39 from all that. It topped my rain guage off (roughly 6 inches) The heaviest rain was yesterday around 7 a.m or so. I think the Lake got some good rain.
The everglades south of the lake need water too and they did get plenty of rain. Still as it gets hotter, and sun angle increases Lake O will drop faster into spring.
Tropical Cyclone 26S

Issued 1600 UTC Mon 24 Mar 2008

Tropical cyclone 26S is located near 13.3S-103.2E drifting southeastward. Estimated surface winds are near 35 knots and estimated minimum central pressure is at 997 millibars. Wind shear is northeasterly at 20 knots and sea surface temperatures are 28C.

The center of 26S was determined using QuikSCAT, microwave imagery, total precipitable water measurements, 850 mb vorticity and short-wave infrared imagery. Surface winds and pressure were estimated using QuikSCAT which showed a few uncontaminated wind barbs of 35 knots and dvorak intensity techniques which showed a 0.40 cloud band which corresponds to CI 2.5, 35 knots and 997 mb. Recent MSAT infrared imagery showed the cyclone associated with very cold convection with the low level circulation on the eastern edge of the convection as seen in microwave imagery due to 20 knots of northeasterly wind shear. However, there are signs that vertical wind shear is decreasing over the system as the cold cloud cover has become more symmetrical and organized near the LLCC, thus intensity maybe higher than 35 knots. Furthermore, there is a weak outflow vent to the south of the system that should aid in development. Currently, both the GFS and CMC take the system towards the southeast under the influence of a weak ridge induced by the passage of mid-latitude trough; but the GFS weakens the system by Thursday, while the CMC shows a much more significant tropical cyclone nearing the coast of Northwestern Australia, that same time. My thinking is that the cyclone should intensify to a moderate tropical cyclone based on favorable conditions but not as intense as the CMC forecast.

by W456



00Z CMC Forecast Valid 84 hrs



00Z GFS

Shortwave Infrared Imagery with QuikSCAT winds and synoptic observations from buoy and ships overlaid. Some of the tools used for finding position and intensity.



An earlier microwave overpass by TRMM

Tropical cyclone (tc) 26s located approximately 360 nm east of the
Cocos Islands, has tracked southeastward at 04 knots over the past 06
hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts improved convect-
ive banding and consolidation over the past 12 hours. A 240822z trmm
37ghz image and a 241042z AMSU image depict a well-defined low-
level circulation center (LLCC) positioned slightly east of a
developing CDO feature. Animated water vapor imagery shows good
poleward outflow ahead of a midlatitude trough southwest of the
system and a developing anticyclone over the center. Upper level
analysis indicates a favorable environment for further development
with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and high ocean heat
content. The current intensity is based on the high end of Dvorak
estimates of 30-35 knots. Tc 26s is forecast to track increasingly
southward under the steering influence of the low to mid-level
subtropical ridge located east of the system. The steering ridge
is expected to remain relatively weak as the system consolidates,
therefore, track speeds are slow through the period. This forecast
is slightly faster and west of the consensus due to poor initial-
ization of the gfni tracker and initial erroneous equatorward track.
Tc 26s is expected to intensify at a 10-15 knot per day rate due
to favorable outflow and SST.
This warning supersedes and cancels
ref a, navpacmetoccen 240221z Mar 08 tropical cyclone formation
alert (wtxs21 pgtw 240230). Maximum significant wave height at
241200z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 250300z and 251500z.
i noted on some blogs like my blog and dr m blog that the Contact This Blog's Aurthor. is missing


has any one noted the same thing on there blogs???
402. Tazmanian 5:06 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
i noted on some blogs like my blog and dr m blog that the Contact This Blog's Aurthor. is missing


has any one noted the same thing on there blogs???




I see it up in the top right.
i noted on some blogs like my blog



I saw in your blog where it says "Write a message to Tazmanian"
it seen like some can see it and some cant see it
Hello is anyone on this afternoon
Hello everyone i dont know if anyone remembers me i'm glad to be back this year...the spring has been quite violent with a dangerous tornado season....i was wondering if some think there could be a link between a hyperactive tornado season and the oncoming hurricane season
Afternoon all.

Things are clouding over here this afternoon, and it looks like we may get some of the rain we missed out on yesterday. So far it's still dry, though.
Just found out that I have a friend at work (who just told me and showed me pictures)that lost her home (in North Florida near Tallahassee)when it was hit by a tornado up here a few weeks ago (says she "felt" the house float up in the air and drop back down) and it turns out that it was lifted off the foundation and set back down......The good news is that she is ok (cuts and bruises) but the bad news is, as she told me this morning, that she moved up here in 1993 to get away from Hurricanes after losing her home in Hurricane Andrew (she lived in Homestead at the time)...........What horrific luck but she is a trooper............
Funny the CMC has some company!Before anyone begins to worry this is not going to happen.Any models skill at 300 plus hours most of the time should not be taken serious.Skill level is very poor.If anything it should be used as sign that tropical season will be here before you know it.

GFS @ 384!



www.AdriansWeather.com

Almost forgot for those that have never visited the NHC here is your chance to see what it looks like inside.Living in miami ive had the chance to visit on many occasions but for those who have not had the opportunity here is your chance.

Those rooms included in the virtual tour are the National Hurricane Center operations, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) operations, the Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination All Hurricanes (CARCAH), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) liaison, Media & Seminar Room, NOAA Miami Regional Library, and the NOAA National Weather Service Miami Forecast Office.


NHC Virtual Tour
Just went online and found the story....Wow..

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Severe thunderstorms and at least two tornadoes hit northern Florida on Friday, killing two people, causing minor injuries, destroying several homes and knocking down power lines.

*********, who lost her home in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead, was happy to survive the weather outside Tallahassee. She was knocked to the floor in her bedroom when high winds blew the home off its foundation, ripped away the roof and shredded the brick fireplace.

"It was just awful," said *******. "This is my second round."


God Bless Her.................
411. hurricane23 8:07 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
Almost forgot for those that have never visited the NHC here is your chance to see what it looks like inside.



I'd like to see it in full operation during an actual huricane. They must go into some kind of lockdown mode???
413. TEXASYANKEE43 4:42 PM EDT on March 24, 2008
411. hurricane23 8:07 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
Almost forgot for those that have never visited the NHC here is your chance to see what it looks like inside.



I'd like to see it in full operation during an actual huricane.

Its an incredible experience! I was there during charley back in 04.
414. hurricane23 8:46 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
Its an incredible experience! I was there during charley back in 04.


I'll bet it is a real busy place, every second. (24/7) I'd love to see it in action!
Funny the CMC has some company

I don't get this... the CMC has NOTHING even remotely tropical in the Atlantic (according the the cyclone phase diagrams here; the closest I can find is some lows over Africa).
Morning everyone. I see the GFS still is holding on to its development of a Cape Verde storm (not that that means anything). The GFS has been showing this for quite a while now (run to run consistency) but still this is (as H23 said) more than 300 hours out and therefore probably not going to happen.

Ya the CMC was doing the same thing with the gulf low a few days ago. Chances are that's not the last we've seen of the CMC's odd tendency to overdevelop systems.

Michael STL - the cyclonephase diagrams only go out 144 hours from the initiation time (it took me a while to figure that out myself lol). Also; I think H23 was reffering to the cyclone that CMC was forming in the gulf last week.
Nice, Cool & Breezey here in West Palm. For those complaining how "cold" it is....Please keep your posts shut as we go thru the 90's during July thru August...I for one enjoy lower electric bills
Vostok,Antarctica Link

W. Palm Beach Link
Thank you Pat...very nice...Always enjoy your posts..
Thanx.
100Plus degree spread on those two.



Brrrrrrr!
GFS (18z run) now shows not one but TWO tropical cyclones forming out in the extreme long range. The first being the Cape Verde system of course; the second being an apparent cyclone hovering off the coast of Brazil.

Note that none of this should be taken seriously. Storms predicted in the 300 hour timeframe or after have a very very low chance of occurence; especially since we still have at least two months left until the possiblity of tropical cyclones begins to increase.

Great Night!
Has Dennis Hastert come out yet and declare that these flooded homes and buildings not be rebuilt, like he stated about my city of New Orleans? Or how about those wildfires or mudslides in California, man they're always having that, hey! - shouldn't rebuild!
"The Saints Are Coming" Link
426. Inyo
A huge number of the fires and mudslides in California that you see on the news are concentrated in the same areas (such as malibu) and yes, maybe those areas should not be rebuilt. You can't really compare this with Katrina, where a whole city of relatively poor people lost their homes. Some of the San Diego fires got beyond the mansions on the edge of the mountains, but that was the exception.

And yeah, pretty much all mudslides are in Malibu or La Conchita or somewhere like that. Nothing like Katrina at all.
ATV and ISS pass over the Se in a few.

ATV Link

ISS Link
411. hurricane23
...If anything it should be used as sign that tropical season will be here before you know it.

Yes, and if these current SST anomalies hold:Link
maybe they override the typical LaNina (if it persists) late start to the season. (exception 1999 Arlene)
Hello everyone i dont know if anyone remembers me i'm glad to be back this year...the spring has been quite violent with a dangerous tornado season....i was wondering if some think there could be a link between a hyperactive tornado season and the oncoming hurricane season

I remember you. And I'm not sure about there being correlation between an active hurricane season and a hyperactive tornado season.
Good Morning

Pattern Evolution of Pancho

Curve band pattern: 1.05 cloud band arc seen on visible imagery.

Curve Band Pattern DT 3.7
MET 3.5

CI - 3.7/57 kts/983 mb

The data T-no (DT) of the curve band pattern was used rather than the model expected T-no (MET)because MOSIACS Visible imagery (below) and MIMIC animation from the CIMSS showed increase pattern evolution.



desperately seeking spring here in the northeast
Good Morning Folks......Temps dropped just "above" freezing last night in North Florida but all of the flowers in my yard and in the neghborhood (Beautiful Azalias/Dogwoods/Wysterias) appear to have survived this late March shot.....Hate it when the temps actually drop below freezing this time of year and kill off the budding flowers.......
Now we watch closely as the weakening of the La Nina and the fact it is getting to be warm may be able to get us to start timing 40 day pulses which would put our part of the world in a favorable upward motion pattern for tropical systems late June, early Aug, mid Sep, late Oct. If we have a neutralish ENSO next winter, one can see a nasty December.

Sorry I don't buy it (unless it actually happens)....Know a lot of people respect Bastardi but he predicted a dire season for the Gulf last year and it never materialized....I don't give credence anymore to these extremely long term forcasts and predictions and take a "wait and see" attitude as conditions develop and/or change once we get into the season..................
Its going to be interesting to see how that pans out Storm,would make for any interesting tropical season,but I don't have a lot of faith in long range forecasts.
Blue Angels just took off. Good Morn all. Tropical season sson to be on us!
Hey,Storm,
Speculation is half the fun of tropical season,but in the end when tropical season arrives usually all the long range forecasts are thrown out the window,because all the ingredients didn't come together the way it was thought.
Norcross-Mayfield warning system sold

Posted on Tue, Mar. 25, 2008
By MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

An emergency warning system being developed by South Florida's two most prominent hurricane forecasters -- former hurricane center director Max Mayfield and broadcaster Bryan Norcross -- has been acquired by a small, publicly traded company.

The system, called America's Emergency Network, is being built to give the media, local residents and others direct access to information released by state and local emergency operations centers.

Norcross, who also serves as WFOR-CBS 4's hurricane specialist, announced Tuesday that AEN had been acquired by Brampton Crest International, a Miami Beach company that specializes in making loans to real estate firms and other entities.

He and Mayfield, who retired last year from the hurricane center and now works for WPLG-ABC 10 as a hurricane expert, have been developing AEN for about a year.

They say it will serve as an Internet- and satellite-based clearinghouse for preparedness and post-disaster advisories issued by government emergency managers to South Floridians and residents of other areas.

Those messages include prestorm tips and evacuation orders, post-storm updates about rescue operations and relief distribution sites, and crucial information about other emergencies.

''This deal gives us an advantage because there is so much interest in the emergency community,'' Norcross said. ``After talking to a lot of people in the financial world, we thought that moving into the public [corporate] arena was the way to go.''

The arrangement calls for Brampton to issue 100 million common shares and follows a $1 million private placement of shares that will be used to finance AEN, according to a company statement.

Brampton will be renamed The AEN Group. Norcross has been appointed as its president and chief executive officer and Mayfield is now senior executive vice president of government relations.


The "mean" number of named storms in any given year, for the tropical atlantic season, is around 10 per year (with around 6 developing into hurricanes) so when we look at the long term predictions (and especially the earlier ones as we will soon see when Colorado/Gray release their first one in April), they usually "guestimate" between around 11 and upwards........It all depends on what actually happens (with all of the variables once the season actually starts)when their forcasts are adjusted later in the season but the numbers go up or down on the back end....Either way (with Andrew being a classic example), it only takes one major hurricane to hit a poopulated area to make the books in terms of property damage and/or loss of life............Eternal vigilence and preparation every year is the best we can hope for in this business.....
3 spacecraft in One pass, minutes apart tonight.

Heavens-Above Home Page.Link
These times will work for Houston,approx too.

New Orleans ATV pass, groundtrack and times Link

Shuttle Pass 5 minutes later,same plane. Link

ISS pass Link
432. NEwxguy 12:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
desperately seeking spring here in the northeast


Well, the trees are spewing pollen here in SE LA, but had to scrape the frost off the car windows this morning. That isn't very common for the last week of March.

You might not like our lagging spring, but I find it much more fun than sweating.
The cold Made my left rear Tire that had a slowww leak, go down all the way atmo..LOL

Im off to plug dat sucka.

Then I'm gonna pre-flight all my window A/C units too. Jazz Fest will bring the Heat.
445. atmoaggie 3:03 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
432. NEwxguy 12:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
desperately seeking spring here in the northeast

Well, the trees are spewing pollen here in SE LA, but had to scrape the frost off the car windows this morning. That isn't very common for the last week of March.

You might not like our lagging spring, but I find it much more fun than sweating.

I understand for all of you in the south,your not looking forward to the heat,since it lasts so long,but here in the northeast its been a long winter,and would look forward to a little sweat.
Not only have the early hurricane forcasts been a bust but the ones on June 1st as well. The last two hurricane seasons were supposed to be really, really bad and all we got is drizzle & fizzle. If the major forecasting agencies keep calling for an active season, they are bound to be right eventually. Just think of a broken clock being right twice a day.
Actually Gainesville Gator, last year's forecasts were very accurate. "Active season"
does not necessarily mean active where you are, it means active overall. Even in a very active season, Gainesville is very unlikely to get hit.
448. GainesvilleGator 12:27 PM EDT on March 25, 2008
Not only have the early hurricane forcasts been a bust but the ones on June 1st as well. The last two hurricane seasons were supposed to be really, really bad and all we got is drizzle & fizzle.


Need to be careful about that as it may have been "drizzle & fizzle" for the CONUS but a lot of lives were lost in the Carribean and the Yucatan when Dean plowed accross.....The Season affects the entire Tropics and not just the U.S.........
Good point, Kris. I think sometimes people forget that "active" is defined by number of storms that actually form, not by number of landfalls. I'm thinking about the seasons where we've had 15 or 16 storms, many of them majors, but only one or two landfalls in the US. 2003 was a case in point, with 16 named storms but only two hurricanes striking the US, neither as a major. Even in the whole basin there were only 4 hurricane landfalls.
if that sleeping giant Dr M mentioned took advantage of it's opportunity, it would of easily be another category 5!
Anyone have any information on strength of la niña and cyclogenesis? I have only seen research on number of hurricanes that formed in string la niña years versus strong el niño years, but never strong la niña years versus moderate la niña years and that would be very interesting to me. I know you've been busy Adrian but whenever you get a chance that would be great. Or anyone else who could help with this.
Strong La Nina years tend to have less hurricanes than moderate La Nina years. It appears that this La Nina will be over by hurricane season anyway, and we will be in neutral conditions.
Antarctica - A chunk of ice nearly seven times the size of Manhattan Island has collapsed into the ocean. Article from CNN:

Link
Someone check da thermostat please..


Antarctic ice shelf 'hanging by a thread'

Movie Camera

* 18:08 25 March 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
* Catherine Brahi Link
New Mississippi delta would limit hurricane damage

* 13:20 18 February 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
* Phil McKenna
Story: Link

Diverting parts of the Mississippi would create up to 1000 square kilometres of new wetlands between New Orleans, Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico, forming a vital storm surge buffer against hurricanes, researchers say. The formation of new delta lands could also help stem ongoing coastal erosion without disrupting important shipping traffic.

"The scientific and engineering barriers are easily overcome," says Gary Parker, a geologist and engineer at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign, who developed the plan with colleagues. "The big issue is political will".

Details of the scheme were unveiled on Sunday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston, US.





Nuetral yr means what? Fearful this yr for some reason. Good luck.
It appears that this La Nina will be over by hurricane season anyway, and we will be in neutral conditions.

Has anybody thought of the possibility of another 2006 though?





Sure a lot of heat in the oceans... even more than before 1997 (in the west Pacific warm pool anyway; overall anomalies have been positive for the last few weeks and rapidly rising)...
MODIS rapid response satellite pic of partial Wilkins ice shelf collapse.



This is the 4km resolution image showing where the collapse is.

Here's the 250m resolution image **Very large file 3.92MB
459. leftovers 3:35 PM CDT on March 25, 2008
Nuetral yr means what? Fearful this yr for some reason


I am always fearful since Katrina/Rita
The system, called America's Emergency Network, is being built to give the media, local residents and others direct access to information released by state and local emergency operations centers.


Inotherwords, Mayfield-Norcross basically found a way to just fix a broken govt run system. We pay taxes to the govt to provide this very thing, but they fail, so private entreprenuers come in and fix it, and capitalize off it.
Mayfield-Norcross: winners.
FEMA, NWS, NHC: losers (but collecting a govt paycheck and pension so don't care.)
I wonder if we will ever hear from StormKat again???