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Sprawling Nor'easter still bringing heavy snow, damaging coastal floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:15 PM GMT on March 08, 2013

It's not often that a Nor'easter centered more than 600 miles out to sea brings heavy snow and and major coastal flooding to New England, but Winter Storm Saturn is a one-of-a-kind. The massive storm, which was centered about 600 miles east-southeast of New York City at 7 am EST, sprawls out over a huge area of ocean more than 1000 miles across. While the central pressure of 988 mb is not exceptionally low for a Nor'easter, the sheer size of the storm is allowing Saturn to pile up a formidable storm surge, which hammered the coast of Eastern Massachusetts during the Friday morning high tide cycle, causing severe erosion, widespread street flooding, and damage to roads and houses. Snowfall amounts as high as 18" have fallen in Massachusetts (in West Walpole), and a band of moderate snow has set up along an arc from New York City to Boston. The big storm has dumped 6+" of snow on seventeen states this week, from North Dakota to Massachusetts. The deepest snows fell in the Appalachian Mountains of western Virginia and eastern West Virginia, where a number of locations received over twenty inches. The top snow-getter was Franklin, West Virginia, with 24".


Figure 1. Satellite image of Winter Storm Saturn at 9:45 am EST Friday March 8, 2013. Image credit: NASA/GSFC. There's a nice 3-day animation of these satellite images available from NASA.


Figure 2. A house slides into the ocean waters at Plum Island, MA, after being hit by pounding waves from Winter Storm Saturn on Friday, March 8, 2013. (Courtesy: NECN)

Moderate to major coastal flooding in Massachusetts
The island of Nantucket, MA, which is south of Cape Cod and thus the land area closest to the center of WInter Storm Saturn, has received the worst pounding from the storm's wind and water. The island has observed wind gusts greater than 40 mph every single hour since 6 pm Wednesday evening, and will probably continue to so so until late Friday afternoon (thanks to Eric Fisher for this stat.) A storm surge of 3' hit Nantucket Island on both Thursday and Friday. The storm tide--the height of the water above the high tide mark--reached 2.63' during the Friday morning high tide, and 2.57' during the Thursday morning high tide cycle. These heights beat out the Blizzard of 1978 for 5th highest Nantucket water level since records began in 1965. Only Nor'easters in 1991, 2013 (Nemo), 1992, and 1987 brought higher water levels to Nantucket. Boston was too far to the north of Winter Storm Saturn to receive a top-ten storm tide; the storm surge water level peaked at 2.62' above the high tide mark during the Friday morning high tide, well short of the 3.43' needed to crack Boston's top-ten list.

Our Winter Storm Saturn Section has more on the storm. You can also track current storm surge levels using our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.

Join me in Austin, TX on Monday for "Climate Change and the Individual"
I'll be in Austin, Texas on Monday March 11, where I'll be speaking at a panel discussion on climate change that the public is invited to (it's free.) The event is at Bourbon Girl, 212 East 6th Street, 2:30 - 3:30 pm. On stage with me will be David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Channel, and Peter Glatzer and Adrian Grenier, co-founders of SHFT.com. Adrian is the star of the HBO TV series, Entourage. SHFT.com's mission is to convey a more sustainable approach to the way we live through video, design, art and culture. The event is part of "SHFT@Austin", which runs from 10:30 am - 6 pm at Bourbon Girl. The event features a Green Gadget Lab, SHFT's Year on the Road Photo Gallery, in-car app demos in Ford electric cars, and some of The Weather Channel's latest innovations.


Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a very detailed article in the Washington Post on what it would take for the U.S. to catch up to the European ECMWF group in forecasting skill: "the benefit of additional money can be important, but the impact will be patchy. To be the best in forecasting, the U.S. must face the underlying issues of fragmentation and provide the U.S. organizations responsible for weather forecasting a stable environment in which to function. "

Jeff Masters
Rough Corner
Rough Corner
Sideways blowing snow - always a challenge.
Safe Now
Safe Now
You can see the wet line on the side of the home that indicates where the waves reached during the height of the tide. Now, two hours later, the emergency vehicles have pulled back somewhat, and are allowing cars onto either end of the stretch of beaches. The middle beach, full of rocks, which the waves cast onto the roadway, is still closed at this time.
snow 14+ inches
snow 14+ inches
Chance of snow 100% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.

Winter Weather Saturn

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks doc...
Thanks Jeff. I'm not a fan of snow, especially when it's sideways...
This snow is unbelievable...it just keeps coming no matter what..
I had to increase the snowfall forecast again...



it's also in my blog...
Thanks Dr. M. It keeps coming and coming and coming!
Thanks Doc! That 24" top amount may get toppled up here this morning.
Thanks Dr Masters. A reminder to move clocks ahead one hour on Saturday night as Daylight Saving Time arrives In other words one hour less to sleep.
Thanks Doc!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Thanks Doc! That 24" top amount may get toppled up here this morning.


I bet your having fun with all that snow, aint ya?
Quoting SPLbeater:


I bet your having fun with all that snow, aint ya?

It never gets old :)
Thank you Dr. Masters... Wow, Seems like a new weather surprise every week.
Will you sing karaoke while at the Bourbon Girl? Only place on 6th street to partake.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It never gets old :)


Throw a snowball at someone for me...my winter was once again just short of nothing
Hey Doc.. have fun with the Bourbon Girl!...oh, I mean AT the Bourbon Girl! Hob nobbin' with the stars and stuff.. (I wonder what climate groupies look like??)
House Votes to Increase Weather Satellite Funding


The House of Representatives approved legislation Wednesday that would ease a budget shortfall that threatens to delay a key weather satellite program.

Lawmakers voted 267-151 to pass a spending bill that would keep the federal government operating after the current stopgap funding legislation expires on March 27.

Although the bill would keep funding flat at the 2012 level for most federal agencies and departments, it makes an exception for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration%u2019s geostationary weather satellites.

The new spending bill would set aside $802 million for NOAA%u2019s next generation of geostationary probes, known as GOES-R %u2014 $186 million more than the program received in 2012.


That should be welcome news for NOAA, which has warned that budget shortfalls this year could delay the launches of the first two GOES-R satellites, now scheduled for 2015 and 2017. The agency says it needs $802 million in 2013 to begin purchasing and testing the equipment that will launch the two probes into orbit and process the information they collect.

They got it.


The legislation must be approved by the Senate before it can become law. And there are indications that Senate Appropriations Chairwoman Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) intends to take a different approach to funding the federal government once the current continuing budget resolution expires later this month. Mikulski is exploring plans to amend the House bill to include regular yearlong budgets for several agencies and departments, including Commerce, Politico reported yesterday.

And even if the funding laid out in the current version of the House bill becomes law, a classic bit of Washington tap-dancing would reduce the amount agencies actually receive. That's because the $1.043 trillion the bill budgets for federal operations is still subject to sequestration. That means funding throughout the bill would be reduced by 5 percent percent before the first dollar is doled out.

Under those rules, the $802 million the House bill sets aside for NOAA%u2019s GOES-R satellites shrinks to roughly $762 million. That's less than the amount that NOAA says is necessary to keep GOES-R on track, but it's still more than Congress has approved for the program so far this year.
Thanks Dr Masters.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
House Votes to Increase Weather Satellite Funding


The House of Representatives approved legislation Wednesday that would ease a budget shortfall that threatens to delay a key weather satellite program.

Lawmakers voted 267-151 to pass a spending bill that would keep the federal government operating after the current stopgap funding legislation expires on March 27.

Although the bill would keep funding flat at the 2012 level for most federal agencies and departments, it makes an exception for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration%u2019s geostationary weather satellites.

The new spending bill would set aside $802 million for NOAA%u2019s next generation of geostationary probes, known as GOES-R %u2014 $186 million more than the program received in 2012.


That should be welcome news for NOAA, which has warned that budget shortfalls this year could delay the launches of the first two GOES-R satellites, now scheduled for 2015 and 2017. The agency says it needs $802 million in 2013 to begin purchasing and testing the equipment that will launch the two probes into orbit and process the information they collect.

They got it.


The legislation must be approved by the Senate before it can become law. And there are indications that Senate Appropriations Chairwoman Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) intends to take a different approach to funding the federal government once the current continuing budget resolution expires later this month. Mikulski is exploring plans to amend the House bill to include regular yearlong budgets for several agencies and departments, including Commerce, Politico reported yesterday.

And even if the funding laid out in the current version of the House bill becomes law, a classic bit of Washington tap-dancing would reduce the amount agencies actually receive. That's because the $1.043 trillion the bill budgets for federal operations is still subject to sequestration. That means funding throughout the bill would be reduced by 5 percent percent before the first dollar is doled out.

Under those rules, the $802 million the House bill sets aside for NOAA%u2019s GOES-R satellites shrinks to roughly $762 million. That's less than the amount that NOAA says is necessary to keep GOES-R on track, but it's still more than Congress has approved for the program so far this year.


Thats good news! and an area that only really a govt could take responsibility to pay for ... IMO
Good morning all and thank you Dr. Masters. Love the pictures
Quoting VR46L:


Thats good news! and an area that only really a govt could take responsibility to pay for ... IMO


as part of climate change awareness Obama wants to take care of.
Sweet, I'll be in the Austin area on Monday. I'll have to see if I can stop by!

Anyway, the WPC (it's strange not saying HPC anymore) has analyzed a Norlun Trough over New England in their latest analysis, which is responsible for the continued snows.



This is in turn caused by the phasing secondary disturbance. As the disturbance continues to phase with the main storm, it has resulted in the elongation of the mid-level circulation, and with the circulation extending back towards the northeast, so is the mid-level forcing. This forcing is causing some pressure falls at the surface (manifested in the Norlun Trough) as well as the continued snows even with the main part of the circulation now far away. This can be seen quite well on both 700 mb vertical velocity and on water vapor.



I need to see if I can get Monday off ...only a couple hour drive to Austin ...anybody here in Texas/Houston area want to go with?
more and more snow keeps coming from the east
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
House Votes to Increase Weather Satellite Funding


The House of Representatives approved legislation Wednesday that would ease a budget shortfall that threatens to delay a key weather satellite program.

Lawmakers voted 267-151 to pass a spending bill that would keep the federal government operating after the current stopgap funding legislation expires on March 27.

Although the bill would keep funding flat at the 2012 level for most federal agencies and departments, it makes an exception for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s geostationary weather satellites.

The new spending bill would set aside $802 million for NOAA’s next generation of geostationary probes, known as GOES-R — $186 million more than the program received in 2012.


The GOES-R has it's own website and it's pretty sweet.. They also have a nice selection of downloadable logos like this one... I hope they are selling advertising space on the satellite to offset some of this cost :(
be a lil cautious driving monday in texas.......
20" in rutland MA on top of old leftover snow.
saw a pic with mailboxes almost covered in snow in MA
Hopefully we get some rain tues/wens...........
Hello Mr. Eye ^_^

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


as part of climate change awareness Obama wants to take care of.


Maybe but its good for people who forecast or track weather too . As models still miss things, the eye still can catch things missed by Models


nice here today highs may reach near 50 by mid afternoon
snow a little stronger in intensity..fighting all the odds!
Thanks Doc!
Thanks Dr Masters
Quoting Thrawst:
Hello Mr. Eye ^_^

Sandra looks good
Hey all. I screwed up yesterday.

Cleanup from our crippling snowstorm in Reykjavík was well finished, and in fact it was lightly raining. So I decided to head out into the countryside (read: the middle of nowhere) to resume my home search. My car has only summer tires and low clearance, but hey, everything was clear, even the mountain roads. One potential home site was too far away and too high altitude and too bad roads so I scratched it off the list. By then the rain had turned to snow and it was just beginning to stick, so I decided I didn't want to waste time getting back home. I decided to shortcut it south to Þingvallavegur, thinking, I'll just head down though the mountains and out into the open plains on a major road used by the tour companies. Didn't realize that to get to Þingvallavegur that I had to go *up* through the mountains, that these were high-altitude plains that it ran through. And when I got there it was worse than the mountain road! Not kept clear at all like the Ring Road. All in all it was a terror, sliding all over the place - I have no idea how I made it back without sliding off the road (potentially, in some places, into a ravine).

Spring can't come soon enough. I love those spring snowstorms here that melt away 10-30 minutes after they pound on you. ;)

How are you all liking your snow on the other side of the pond? :)
The storm has significantly underperformed in DC, but has over performed in New England.
Quoting KarenRei:
Hey all. I screwed up yesterday.

Cleanup from our crippling snowstorm in Reykjavík was well finished, and in fact it was lightly raining. So I decided to head out into the countryside (read: the middle of nowhere) to resume my home search. My car has only summer tires and low clearance, but hey, everything was clear, even the mountain roads. One potential home site was too far away and too high altitude and too bad roads so I scratched it off the list. By then the rain had turned to snow and it was just beginning to stick, so I decided I didn't want to waste time getting back home. I decided to shortcut it south to Þingvallavegur, thinking, I'll just head down though the mountains and out into the open plains on a major road used by the tour companies. Didn't realize that to get to Þingvallavegur that I had to go *up* through the mountains, that these were high-altitude plains that it ran through. And when I got there it was worse than the mountain road! Not kept clear at all like the Ring Road. All in all it was a terror, sliding all over the place - I have no idea how I made it back without sliding off the road (potentially, in some places, into a ravine).

Spring can't come soon enough. I love those spring snowstorms here that melt away 10-30 minutes after they pound on you. ;)

How are you all liking your snow on the other side of the pond? :)


yep I was fearing some big weather in the Island was happening.. a very tight pressure gradient (70 mb!) generating very gusty winds. Also snow was a big issue too.
some alerts being cancelled across the region
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm has significantly underperformed in DC, but has over performed in New England.


GFS Supported these amounts on a large scale a few days ago.

widespread 18-24inches, but that means on a small scale higher amounts were possible.
It's biggest mistake was backing off a day or two ago.


45 outside my window

snow melt in full progress

with temps remaining mild into the weekend and early next week with rain sunday and monday we should lose most if not all of the snow in my area over the next 3 days or so
Ice storm warning
Quoting KarenRei:
Hey all. I screwed up yesterday.

Cleanup from our crippling snowstorm in Reykjavík was well finished, and in fact it was lightly raining. So I decided to head out into the countryside (read: the middle of nowhere) to resume my home search. My car has only summer tires and low clearance, but hey, everything was clear, even the mountain roads. One potential home site was too far away and too high altitude and too bad roads so I scratched it off the list. By then the rain had turned to snow and it was just beginning to stick, so I decided I didn't want to waste time getting back home. I decided to shortcut it south to Þingvallavegur, thinking, I'll just head down though the mountains and out into the open plains on a major road used by the tour companies. Didn't realize that to get to Þingvallavegur that I had to go *up* through the mountains, that these were high-altitude plains that it ran through. And when I got there it was worse than the mountain road! Not kept clear at all like the Ring Road. All in all it was a terror, sliding all over the place - I have no idea how I made it back without sliding off the road (potentially, in some places, into a ravine).

Spring can't come soon enough. I love those spring snowstorms here that melt away 10-30 minutes after they pound on you. ;)

How are you all liking your snow on the other side of the pond? :)

Sounds like you gave your guardian angel some overtime!
Thank God you made it through safe and sound.. and a bit wiser for the experience I'm sure.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yep I was fearing some big weather in the Island was happening.. a very tight pressure gradient (70 mb!) generating very gusty winds. Also snow was a big issue too.


Wow, 70mb? Geez, I'm surprised it wasn't worse. Was that yesterday or Wednesday? Wednesday was when Reykjavík was crippled. I couldn't even get out of my parking lot. The bus service was giving meals to stranded passengers - even 4x4s weren't supposed to be on the roads.

Anyway, lesson learned - when planning your route, use "topographic mode" on your map program, not "satellite mode". :Þ Because it was purely an altitude problem, as soon as I dropped a couple hundred meters the roads were just fine again.
Quoting JNCali:

Sounds like you gave your guardian angel some overtime!
Thank God you made it through safe and sound.. and a bit wiser for the experience I'm sure.


Haha, once I was back in Reykjavík I routed not straight home but to Laugardalslaug, one of the larger swimming pools (which here, because we use hot geothermal water, are more like spas), I just had to relax for a bit before doing anything else. I felt like I'd just run a marathon, from clenching so much for over an hour!

At least I think I leveled up in "recovering from spins on windy, snowy roads with minimal visibility" ;)
Starting with Sandy,this has been the year of massive storms and unpredictabliity.That fetch off the atlantic doesn't show any signs of letting up.some areas around me are going to top 2' easily.
And to think yesterday's forecast was for 4-8,with some areas maybe 10"/.
Quoting KarenRei:


Wow, 70mb? Geez, I'm surprised it wasn't worse. Was that yesterday or Wednesday? Wednesday was when Reykjavík was crippled. I couldn't even get out of my parking lot. The bus service was giving meals to stranded passengers - even 4x4s weren't supposed to be on the roads.

Anyway, lesson learned - when planning your route, use "topographic mode" on your map program, not "satellite mode". :Þ Because it was purely an altitude problem, as soon as I dropped a couple hundred meters the roads were just fine again.


I based my prediction from this map..it's a different look now

Thanks Doc!

Hey everyone,

I will be out chasing in the Texas Panhandle today, so I will have my stream up.

Feel free to check it out this afternoon. Should have it up around 1:30pm cst.

Live Stream
snow shield is slowly getting smaller it will end soon not much longer

Highest snowfall totals so far:

Holden, MA..........22"
Staffordville, CT...20.8"
Shrewsbury, MA...20"

My location...10"
Thanks Doc.
11,811 customers in CT w/o power.
As a recently-transplanted Austinite, I was a little confused about this Bourbon Girl Dr. Masters will be speaking at...new bar I didn't know? Then I realized it's the replacement for Spill, recently closed down in a cocaine trafficking ring: Link

Well played.
As the secondary disturbance continues to rotate around and phase with the main system, forcing over New England should significantly drop off, leading to an end in meaningful pricipitation in just a few hours.

Quoting NEwxguy:
Starting with Sandy,this has been the year of massive storms and unpredictabliity.That fetch off the atlantic doesn't show any signs of letting up.some areas around me are going to top 2' easily.
And to think yesterday's forecast was for 4-8,with some areas maybe 10"/.
yeah these storms are very unpredictable...however once a particular weather pattern is set, at least temporarily, these storms follow the same path. NE US keeps getting slammed! Don't forget Irene in 2011 that hit NY as well. Can't wait until Hurricane Season again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm has significantly underperformed in DC, but has over performed in New England.
Most things "underperform" in DC...won't mention any names though....LOL
Quoting 1900hurricane:
As the secondary disturbance continues to rotate around and phase with the main system, forcing over New England should significantly drop off, leading to an end in meaningful pricipitation in just a few hours.

Is this to be "Triton?" or something?
I saw some 5 year-old kids playing here too

The snow hole over Rhode Island continues:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&produc t=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Has since last evening. Could it have something to do with the influence of Narragansett Bay somehow stabilizing the wind flow and interrupting the lift needed for precipitation?
Its ridiculous,this system is over 600 miles ese of NY and by rights shouldn't be effecting anyone except shipping.
Absolutely beautiful day here in south Florida.... Windows and doors are open... Not hot, not cold....Low 70's.
Quoting Waltanater:
Is this to be "Triton?" or something?

No, it's not significant enough to be named, especially with it becoming a part of Saturn as we speak. You can actually trace the second disturbance's path from southeast Ontario using this water vapor loop. It ends up being the little hook thing off the mid-atlantic coast.
Quoting hugecoldfront:
The snow hole over Rhode Island continues:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&pr oduc t=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Has since last evening. Could it have something to do with the influence of Narragansett Bay somehow stabilizing the wind flow and interrupting the lift needed for precipitation?


I don't know the answer to that question but it definitely merits a response.
beautiful sunny and getting warm around here,Nice day..
East Coast of Florida...................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THIS WEEKEND AS LARGE
SWELLS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD 11 TO 13 FEET
OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ROUGH...POUNDING SURF THIS WEEKEND WITH A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

IN ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SOME SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

KELLY
Not a good fishing weekend.....



Quoting 1900hurricane:

No, it's not significant enough to be named, especially with it becoming a part of Saturn as we speak. You can actually trace the second disturbance's path from southeast Ontario using this water vapor loop. It ends up being the little hook thing off the mid-atlantic coast.
I think I was looking at the wrong area of the map then...I was concerned about the storm from the west heading east across the US...that should be named next. There was hint last night that they will name it. Thanks.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Not a good fishing weekend.....



yes boating etc might get dangerous til that storm moves more eastward,they say minor coastal flooding might be possible as well
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Absolutely beautiful day here in south Florida.... Windows and doors are open... Not hot, not cold....Low 70's.
"Goldilocks" weather!
Hopefully the Cold is gone for us.............
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Not a good fishing weekend.....



Nope
??? something amiss with the blog.
Quoting LargoFl:
Hopefully the Cold is gone for us.............


I know what you mean.
After living almost 30 years in Florida, I am not at all acclimated to cold weather.
Ever so slowly, the precip shield is dropping south and rotating out of the region. Still moderate snow accumulating here now, but I don't think it'll continue much longer, probably a transition to light snow and flurries, or maybe even some light rain, within an hour or two.
Quoting Chicklit:


I know what you mean.
After living almost 30 years in Florida, I am not at all acclimated to cold weather.
yes we are just not used to it, although some like it, i surely dont lol.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
??? something amiss with the blog.
What's the problem Just?
Quoting LargoFl:
yes we are just not used to it, although some like it, i surely dont lol.

I don't know anyone who likes it that lives here full time (sure makes my cat more affectionate though, lol).
Quoting Chicklit:

I don't know anyone who likes it that lives here full time lol.
Last week it got into the 40's.... I hate it.... I grew up in Ohio and spent 2 years in Alaska when my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB there... I don't know how I survived it
I am in Coventry, CT, which is inland and to the eastern side of the state. 18"+ on the ground here and the radar tells me more is on the way. Went to bed last night expecting a couple inches. Too bad the snow blower broke during cleanup after Nemo, when we had approx 3' on the ground.

Sorry D.C. Metro, we took all your snow!
Guess I can safely start getting the garden ready etc,maybe i should wait a week to see how the temps go,my neighbor is already doing it, she has a wonderful flower garden.
Quoting wideblacksky:
I am in Coventry, CT, which is inland and to the eastern side of the state. 18" on the ground here and the radar tells me more is on the way. Went to bed last night expecting a couple inches. Too bad the snow blower broke during cleanup after Nemo, when we had approx 3' on the ground.

Sorry D.C. Metro, we took all your snow!


well, welcome to the blog... thanks for the info. Good to have another nutmegger here!
yep..the snow is breaking down..not much more coming from the ocean either. Rain is slowly taking over
Although it keeps snowing here

lol hail in west hollywood ca
GFS says more Massachusetts snow in 1 week

deep cold:

and another freeze for me
Something interesting,

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/02/earthquake s-booms-big-enough-to-be-detected-from-orbit/
Something is not working... Lake 'Vostock'...

Unknown bacteria, some interesting stuff today. Sorry... gotta google this and the earthquake booms.
Good afternoon. Conditions in the beaches are bad as very high swells with rip currents are prevailing in the north coasts of Puerto Rico,the USVI,BVI and Northern Leewards.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS SAME BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING A NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS...HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS...AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECT AND THE DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE GFS
MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN SLOWLY ON
SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT 1.0 INCH OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY CAUSE
VCSH ACROSS TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. VERY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. FOR THOSE REASONS
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES...AS WELL AS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 20 40 40 20
STT 83 72 83 72 / 20 40 40 20
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
What's the problem Just?
I don't know, 'Sustainableag' that I posted on will not go away... has -11240 seconds ago. Just wierd. Maybe me. Old dog that I may have to put down tomorrow.... hope not, 13... life can suck sometimes.
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Puerto Rico and USVI. I imagine that the surfers are happy with this.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

...PROLONGED HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 8 TO 12 FEET AT 13 TO
15 SECONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER
ALONG EXPOSED REEFS. AS A RESULT...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-090315-
/O.COR.TJSJ.SU.Y.0008.130309T1200Z-130312T1800Z/
/O.COR.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.130309T2000Z-130311T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
255 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM AST
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM AST
TUESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* WAVES AND SURF: LARGE SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FEET THIS WEEKEND...
BUILDING GRADUALLY TO 12 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS WEEKEND...
AND UP TO 20 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS.

* COASTAL FLOODING: BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

AGUADILLA HARBOR: 6:37 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.07 FEET.

ARECIBO HARBOR: 6:51 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.17 FEET.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 7:10 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.17 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 6:30 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 0.41 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
hailmaker in cali
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I don't know, 'Sustainableag' that I posted on will not go away... has -11240 seconds ago. Just wierd. Maybe me. Old dog that I may have to put down tomorrow.... hope not, 13... life can suck sometimes.


Glitch in the Community Activity Panel? I see it too.
And the time ("seconds ago") is in count down mode, huh!
A very dangerous COLD SPELL on the way for New England. Highs ranging from 10 to -10 for highs later next week. Coldest air thus far this winter on the way by for New England

WOW!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I don't know, 'Sustainableag' that I posted on will not go away... has -11240 seconds ago. Just wierd. Maybe me. Old dog that I may have to put down tomorrow.... hope not, 13... life can suck sometimes.
I'm sorry Just..... That really sucks. Been there
What is up with TWC showing Cantore & Abrams playing in the snow together. I mean really! Show wx related topics not this nonsense.

Link
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
A very dangerous COLD SPELL on the way for New England. Highs ranging from 10 to -10 for highs later next week. Coldest air thus far this winter on the way by for for New England

WOW!


at 850mb sure.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


at 850mb sure.


Expect brutal conditions at the surface with highs struggling to get above 0.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
A very dangerous COLD SPELL on the way for New England. Highs ranging from 10 to -10 for highs later next week. Coldest air thus far this winter on the way by for New England

WOW!


Here, we are getting into the mid 30's next week!
At other companies this would be frowned apon but I guess TWC has different rules in place. No fraternization at my work place.
warm sun sure feels good huh
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Here, we are getting into the mid 30's next week!


LOL! Well see about that. I think your TV stations up there are waiting for more consistency before dropping the bomb on ya.
Quoting barbamz:


Glitch in the Community Activity Panel? I see it too.
And the time ("seconds ago") is in count down mode, huh!


Quoting myself, lol. "Count down" on this panel with "sustainableag" is still ongoing. I hope this isn't some sort of virus?! *Shiver*.
Have a good night together, I'm out. Barb
When is this cold spell suppose to hit?.
Max, trHu. in norwalk, I don't know how your getting so much snow compared to Stamford, 8-10 miles from your location. Here we have about 6" and have not added 1 inch since 9am. My temp. has been above freezing since about 10am--now up to 37F. , and the snowfall rate after 9am has been light and intermittent. On your snow map, better put a "Snow guard shield" over Stamford!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Well see about that. I think your TV stations up there are waiting for more consistency before dropping the bomb on ya.


The NWS, Accuweather, Intellicast, and everyone else, agree it will be in the 30's next week.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When is this cold spell suppose to hit?.


Next Saturday is when it really moves in but I think the targeted area is going to be north of you like from NYC north.

If The Weather Channel is going to name winter storms like the way they do, they might as well start using this symbol on the weather maps.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Expect brutal conditions at the surface with highs struggling to get above 0.


not even close



more like 5-10F at night in the extreme NE

10-20F daytime extreme NE
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The NWS, Accuweather, Intellicast, and everyone else, agree it will be in the 30's next week.


Those temps change as we move into next week. Again this cold airmass wouldn't drop in until next Saturday so the models could change.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
What is up with TWC showing Cantore & Abrams playing in the snow together. I mean really! Show wx related topics not this nonsense.

Link


live reporters started playing...big deal...
I supposed you wanted them to keep their reporters in line?


Narrow line of rain coming in now. Started a few minutes ago.
Says we had .07 yesterday and .33 this morning (early).
It is 55.6° now. Low was 49.7° and High was 56° which was 23 minutes ago
(11:20PST)
121. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
What is up with TWC showing Cantore & Abrams playing in the snow together. I mean really! Show wx related topics not this nonsense.

Link


Not going there ......
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those temps change as we move into next week. Again this cold airmass wouldn't drop in until next Saturday so the models could change.



Well, I am in Wisconsin, so we should be out of the cold air mass mainly.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not even close



more like 5-10F at night in the extreme NE

10-20F daytime extreme NE


That's the GFS. The Euro is much colder. Either way take the GFS at 10 to 20 during the day and you don't call that brutal with winds blowing 30mph? Come on kid.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Well, I am in Wisconsin, so we should be out of the cold air mass mainly.



Yeah, I think NYC north should really watch the models over the coming days as cold air dives in from Quebec from NW to SE.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
I don't know, 'Sustainableag' that I posted on will not go away... has -11240 seconds ago. Just wierd. Maybe me. Old dog that I may have to put down tomorrow.... hope not, 13... life can suck sometimes.


Oh, I'm sorry. My dog is 11. The last one lived but 10 years. So 13 is doing pretty well. So sorry tho.

I started transplanting about a week ago here in east central Florida. We're beyond any chance of freeze and we never really did have cold weather enough to freeze over here near the beach. Our big problem now is the dry weather. Strong smell of smoke in the air while walking the dog this morning.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


live reporters started playing...big deal...
I supposed you wanted them to keep their reporters in line?


I won't go any further.
The tropical Atlantic is now baking with widespread 1.0C sea surface temperature anomalies, while the SW and mid-latitude Atlantic continue to cool. This is thanks to the negative NAO pattern we have had starting during the last week of February.

As I have spoken about, this has a significant impact on Atlantic SSTs, and a pattern such as this, if it persists through most of March, could make the hurricane season a more active one. The tropical Atlantic was not warmer than normal 4 weeks ago.



The GFS ensemble average MSLP anomaly for the next week certainly keeps this pattern going.

I wonder what happens when sustainableg posts that blog........ :D

T-8489 secs
My 10-day temperature outlook.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's the GFS. The Euro is much colder. Either way take the GFS at 10 to 20 during the day and you don't call that brutal with winds blowing 30mph? Come on kid.


it's brutal.... never disagreed
Anyone know what this countdown is??? Glitch or worse...
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Anyone know what this countdown is??? Glitch or worse...
Where???
Okay. What is wrong with the community activity?
Quoting Levi32:
The tropical Atlantic is now baking with widespread 1.0C sea surface temperature anomalies, while the SW and mid-latitude Atlantic continue to cool. This is thanks to the negative NAO pattern we have had starting during the last week of February.

As I have spoken about, this has a significant impact on Atlantic SSTs, and a pattern such as this, if it persists through most of March, could make the hurricane season a more active one. The tropical Atlantic was not warmer than normal 4 weeks ago.



The GFS ensemble average MSLP anomaly for the next week certainly keeps this pattern going.



Hi Levi. A important factor that can mitigate the formation of strong hurricanes and that is the quantity over quality thing may be the lack of instability in the Tropical Atlantic. What do you think about this?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Okay. What is wrong with the community activity?
If a second there is a second here, then something should happen in 125-130 mins.
Quoting Levi32:
The tropical Atlantic is now baking with widespread 1.0C sea surface temperature anomalies, while the SW and mid-latitude Atlantic continue to cool. This is thanks to the negative NAO pattern we have had starting during the last week of February.

As I have spoken about, this has a significant impact on Atlantic SSTs, and a pattern such as this, if it persists through most of March, could make the hurricane season a more active one. The tropical Atlantic was not warmer than normal 4 weeks ago.



The GFS ensemble average MSLP anomaly for the next week certainly keeps this pattern going.



Other variable have to be in place as well. With one being instability which is lacking again this year across the Atlantic Basin.


I am going off of the site and shut it down this evening... weird crap is happening. That 'Sustainableag' has a countdown that WILL NOT GO AWAY. Take someone else's advice and get out of here. Bug, viral, worm. No chance with me. My 'Mason' who I love dearly:(
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Other variable have to be in place as well. With one being instability which is lacking again this year across the Atlantic Basin.



That could change though.
Quoting Levi32:
The tropical Atlantic is now baking with widespread 1.0C sea surface temperature anomalies, while the SW and mid-latitude Atlantic continue to cool. This is thanks to the negative NAO pattern we have had starting during the last week of February.

As I have spoken about, this has a significant impact on Atlantic SSTs, and a pattern such as this, if it persists through most of March, could make the hurricane season a more active one. The tropical Atlantic was not warmer than normal 4 weeks ago.



The GFS ensemble average MSLP anomaly for the next week certainly keeps this pattern going.




Don't put all your eggs in one basket because we may have the same issue this upcoming hurricane season as last year and that's storms forming close to home or around 30N.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


That could change though.


This is true but that has been the problem the last few years.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Okay. What is wrong with the community activity?
A blogger has a countdown on community activity.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
A blogger has a countdown on community activity.
7,000 seconds to 'What'... don't know.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not even close



more like 5-10F at night in the extreme NE

10-20F daytime extreme NE

Even warmer than that...the image you posted is valid at 8am. Lows near 10F in extreme northwestern Maine.
snow coming to an end maybe another h or so before it clears out

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
deep cold:

and another freeze for me
That may change a bit being 192 hours out. The GFS has it lookin like a back door cold front kinda thing.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
7,000 seconds to 'What'... don't know.
'Keeper of the gate' had a 'Welcome' for this site. I responded to this site as well.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
4:49 AM EST March 9 2013
=====================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (985 hPa) located at 15.3S 157.8E or 1250 km east northeast of Townsville and 700 km south southwest of Honiara has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots

Storm Force Winds
================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrants
220 NN from the center in southwest quadrant
250 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.7S 158.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.4S 159.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.6S 161.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.6S 162.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Dvorak Analysis based on a curved band pattern with 1.05 degree wrap on a log10 spiral with an added 0.5 for white band, giving DT of 4.5. MT and PT both suggest 4.0. FT based on DT, though restricted by rules.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has generally developed at a standard rate over the last 24 hours with the overall organization of the system now exhibiting a clean curved band pattern. Sandra should continue to develop at this rate over the next 24 hours, though there is the potential for rapid intensification with the system expected to continue to move in a low wind shear environment to the west of an upper level high while moving over warm sea surface temperatures.

Sandra is expected to continue to move in an east to southeast direction over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-level trough moving across the Pacific Ocean to the southeast of New Caledonia. The system should adopt more of a south to southeast track on Monday as the mid-level trough weakens and as a result allowing an upper level high to the north of Fiji to become the dominant steering influence.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Don't put all your eggs in one basket because we may have the same issue this upcoming hurricane season as last year and that's storms forming close to home or around 30N.



Who said anything about one basket?

Also, so far the Atlantic SST profile is nearly opposite that of last year at this time. The late-winter SST profile usually persists into the summer period. Persistence through March into April will be key.

2012 March 8:



2013 March 7:

Tropical Atlantic vertical instability matters little until late May and June. Even in 2005, instability was actually below normal until the start of the season.

After all, an equatorial ridge axis sits over the MDR at this time of year lol. Expect nothing less than strongly stable conditions.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not really, airburst nuclear weapons have a very limited affect radiation wise on people and the environment around it. If this were not true a large portion of the United States would not be occupied. Example, Hiroshima. The initial radiation on the populace was quite horrible (1-2 days), that being said it is now a very large city in which radiation levels are rather low and not harmful. I am basing things on what has happened not what theoretically could happen under very specific circumstances. I believe well over 2000 nuclear test have occurred in the past 70 years sense the first and 300 of which have occurred in The Untited States. Most of which were airburst. The only real danger with an airburst nuclear weapons radiation wise is the initial radiation and the real only long term radiation threat is that some debris is radiated from the blast. I am talking about long term nuclear fallout. Not sure if you are but a proper airburst of a nuclear weapon has minimal affect radiation wise on environment. You are not giving me facts, only theoretical's. I also do not appreciate the pretentious and rude attitude you give when someone disagrees with you. So I stick by with my initial point. If a plane was carrying a nuclear weapon in an attempt to deliver it via air then was shot down via AA systems the radiation affect would be minimal to none. In fact the only danger caused by this would be the debris falling from the plane that will be irradiated.
No, I gave you an entire wikipedia article on why nuclear radiation in the air is bad. In case you didn't read it, here are the first three sentences:

"Nuclear fallout, or simply fallout, also known as Black Rain, is the residual radioactive material propelled into the upper atmosphere following a nuclear blast or a nuclear reaction conducted in an unshielded facility, so called because it "falls out" of the sky after the explosion and shock wave have passed. It commonly refers to the radioactive dust and ash created when a nuclear weapon explodes, but such dust can also originate from a damaged nuclear plant.
This radioactive dust, consisting of material either directly vaporized by a nuclear blast or charged by exposure, is a highly dangerous kind of radioactive contamination."


Nuclear radiation is highly dangerous, I'm not sure why you still don't understand this. Yes, airburst explosions will create less nuclear fallout and yes, the initial radiation exposure from the explosion is the most harmful, but the residual radiation left in the surrounding environment is still very harmful. There is no denying that. How harmful it is depends on the strength of the explosion, and our position relative to the explosion, but regardless, radiation in the air is bad. Last night you were insisting radiation in the air is harmless and safe. Truth is, no amount of nuclear radiation is ever good for any living being. You are wrong, end of discussion.
Re: #150 - thanks for those details, Levi!
appears we have a warming neutral likly going to nino as we go further along



I'll be doing my blog on this upcoming hurricane season as soon as I get home.
compare for tropical atlantic shows a warming trend as well



Just took another measurement- 20". Really amazing. This rivals the blizzard in terms of accumulation. Highest total on the NWS page is 24.4", although I've heard some rumors of higher reports. Snow is hanging on, but steadily weakening and heading for the coast. Maybe another inch to go. Temperatures have become pretty marginal as well.
MA,
I haven't taken my readings yet,but suspect it will be close to you,but whats really amazing.In the blizzard it was a much fluffier snow,so it was easier to accumulate higher totals,this was a very wet and compact snow,so the snow totals are really impressive.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just took another measurement- 20". Really amazing. This rivals the blizzard in terms of accumulation. Highest total on the NWS page is 24.4", although I've heard some rumors of higher reports. Snow is hanging on, but steadily weakening and heading for the coast. Maybe another inch to go. Temperatures have become pretty marginal as well.


I went outside and measured 7"
enjoy the weekend,look whats coming Monday......
GFS has it as rain thank goodness..............
I don't who if I'm the only one with the issue but in the community activity there are two posts by sustainable (?) and it says -7734 seconds.... ???

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I don't who if I'm the only one with the issue but in the community activity there are two posts by sustainable (?) and it says -7734 seconds.... ???

we can all see it checking into it waiting on reply from higher up
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I don't who if I'm the only one with the issue but in the community activity there are two posts by sustainable (?) and it says -7734 seconds.... ???



Both of those posts appear to have been removed.
DOOM
it apears to be corrected
167. N3EG
Quoting PedleyCA:
DOOM


Darn. I thought we were counting down to a meteor strike or something interesting.

Back to sleep...
It bothers me when I see people people blame a lack of vertical instability on lower tropical Atlantic activity. It is true that when vertical instability is low conditions are less favorable, and when it is high, conditions are more favorable for an above average season. For this reason, vertical instability can be used to predict levels of activity. However, it bothers me when I see people blame levels of activity on vertical instability. Vertical instability in itself does not explain the lack of activity. There has to be something causing that lack of vertical instability since vertical instability is really just a measurement of the state of the atmosphere.

It is inaccurate, or rather, incomplete to say the lack of activity is because of a lack of instability. If you say a lack of activity is a result of a lack of instability, it begs the question, what is causing the lack of instability?


51.5F here ... rain stopped ... 45.0 at the Airport

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PST on March 08, 2013
Heavy Rain
45 °F
Heavy Rain
Windchill: 44 °F
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 40 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.88 in (Rising)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 3.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2800 ft
Overcast 3400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Rain looks to have slid to the SE of me.....
Max, I noticed that too with the "community activity" Seems weird. (Post 162)
still shows on comm activity box but in the main blog list its back to normal down into the 10 or 11 spot now
Quoting originalLT:
Max, I noticed that too with the "community activity" Seems weird. (Post 162)


it as at 17,000 secs or so before, gotta wait until time is out
Lots of fun today :)

the snow ended like a hour ago..no winter warnings anymore
Quoting TomTaylor:
It bothers me when I see people people blame a lack of vertical instability on lower tropical Atlantic activity. It is true that when vertical instability is low conditions are less favorable, and when it is high, conditions are more favorable. For this reason, vertical instability can be used to predict levels of activity. However, it bothers me when I see people blame levels of activity on vertical instability. Vertical instability in itself does not explain the lack of activity. There has to be something causing that lack of vertical instability since vertical instability is really just a measurement of the state of the atmosphere.

I suppose there is no shame in using vertical instability to predict levels of activity, but it is inaccurate, or rather, incomplete to say the lack of activity is because of a lack of instability. If you say a lack of activity is a result of a lack of instability, it begs the question, what is causing the lack of instability?


US drought.
When will we experience sustainable higher temps in Western NY indicative of an approaching Spring???
Has anyone researched the "vertical instability" factor?
Warnings for MA only

Quoting TomTaylor:
It bothers me when I see people people blame a lack of vertical instability on lower tropical Atlantic activity. It is true that when vertical instability is low conditions are less favorable, and when it is high, conditions are more favorable for an above average season. For this reason, vertical instability can be used to predict levels of activity. However, it bothers me when I see people blame levels of activity on vertical instability. Vertical instability in itself does not explain the lack of activity. There has to be something causing that lack of vertical instability since vertical instability is really just a measurement of the state of the atmosphere.

It is inaccurate, or rather, incomplete to say the lack of activity is because of a lack of instability. If you say a lack of activity is a result of a lack of instability, it begs the question, what is causing the lack of instability?


But vertical instability is a composite parameter. Multiple variables determine its value (e.g. vertical temperature profile, vertical moisture profile).

While vertical instability is not the sole driver of tropical activity, is is a better parameter to correlate with tropical activity than any one of the basic parameters that it is derived from.

It is also worth noting that the question "but what is causing this atmospheric/oceanic parameter to vary?" can be asked repeatedly, no matter which parameter you consider, and if you continue down that iteration of reasoning, you will always eventually end up at the same root driver: the Sun.
Have we got some blogger on here learning to count backwards?
For the record we got 390 liters of rain per sq meter. That's about 19 and a bit inches the way we old timers measure it!
Still raining of course but we are entering a new week.
Those storms that you are getting over the North East States seem to be developing a trend of big and destructive. From our point of view, that is cos when you have finally finish with them, or suffering from them than they plod along over here and cause more problems for the old world.
Not too bad on the flooding at the moment here as the holding dams seem to be taking the strain, non the less there are quite a lot of farmlands under water.
not all things are in the right way all the time...


weather.com
Does Saturn somehow remind you a bit of Sandy??

Hum....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll be doing my blog on this upcoming hurricane season as soon as I get home.


Could be another busy season indeed with another eastcoast trof set up.
Quoting AETHOMAS:
Does Saturn somehow remind you a bit of Sandy??

Hum....



Closer to Nemo
Quoting Levi32:


But vertical instability is a composite parameter. Multiple variables determine its value (e.g. vertical temperature profile, vertical moisture profile).

While vertical instability is not the sole driver of tropical activity, is is a better parameter to correlate with tropical activity than any one of the basic parameters that it is derived from.

It is also worth noting that the question "but what is causing this atmospheric/oceanic parameter to vary?" can be asked repeatedly, no matter which parameter you consider, and if you continue down that iteration of reasoning, you will always eventually end up at the same root driver: the Sun.


Also, changing jet stream activity due to reduced temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses, caused by GHG induced global warming.
This months Monthly Ocean Briefing questioned whether missing bouy data in the Pacific is affecting the models in predicting ENSO. Did not see a slide that would indicate the answer, they may not have one.






Quoting hurricane23:


Could be another busy season indeed with another eastcoast trof set up.


heya you were asking me to do something for your weather site a while go...did you get it my wumail..?
The city of Worcester, MA, has surpassed 100" of snow for the season.
Quoting hurricane23:


Could be another busy season indeed with another eastcoast trof set up.


Hi Adrian. How do you see the season in terms of numbers and how to you see the MDR being active or not. I know is still early but maybe you can give us a preview.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


heya you were asking me to do something for your weather site a while go...did you get it my wumail..?


Just got it..been working 12hr shifts past few weeks so been real busy. thanks again
Quoting hurricane23:


Just got it..been working 12hr shifts past few weeks so been real busy. thanks again


are you going to use it..???
I would like to se how it fits on there...
I still have the link for your weather site...
Quoting N3EG:


Darn. I thought we were counting down to a meteor strike or something interesting.

Back to sleep...
That would put your eye out kid
Quoting hurricane23:


Could be another busy season indeed with another eastcoast trof set up.
Shhhh
94 JustPlantIt: Earthquake's booms big enough to be detected from orbit
The European Space Agency's GOCE satellite was not designed to be an earthquake eavesdropper. The satellite is basically a giant accelerometer...
But a group of researchers...decided to examine the satellite's data for...the direct effect of the earthquake's [extremely low frequency] infrasound boom reaching the satellite.
Since the satellite's orbit is still technically in the Earth's atmosphere [thermosphere], it could detect the fluctuations in air density caused by the passing sound waves.
The satellite's activity depend on maintaining it in an incredibly precise orbit by using jets to compensate for drag. The momentary increases in atmospheric density caused by the earthquake's sound waves increased the drag on the satellite, triggering the jets.
Since this had never been done before, the researchers claim the mantle of "first seismometer in orbit around the Earth" for the GOCE satellite.
Thanks. It never occurred to me that the atmosphere above the KarmanLine remained dense enough for a sound wave to sufficiently keep its shape to be detectable.
I knew that gravity waves can be produced by meteors, but that's all the way down in the mesosphere
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That would put your eye out kid


Can't have that happen.....

It Came Out Of The Sky
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Shhhh


our nice friend here from Palm Beach lives in ground zero for hurricanes...we do not want harm on people..

but what can we do when nature says otherwise?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Can't have that happen.....

It Came Out Of The Sky
Fogarty still rocks
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


our nice friend here from Palm Beach lives in ground zero for hurricanes...we do not want harm on people..

but what can we do when nature says otherwise?
I have a reliable source that Captain James T Kirk will be here June 1st.... No worries.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Adrian. How do you see the season in terms of numbers and how to you see the MDR being active or not. I know is still early but maybe you can give us a preview.


last time i viewed the european model it was still suggesting above normal surface pressures.
Quoting Levi32:


But vertical instability is a composite parameter. Multiple variables determine its value (e.g. vertical temperature profile, vertical moisture profile).

While vertical instability is not the sole driver of tropical activity, is is a better parameter to correlate with tropical activity than any one of the basic parameters that it is derived from.

It is also worth noting that the question "but what is causing this atmospheric/oceanic parameter to vary?" can be asked repeatedly, no matter which parameter you consider, and if you continue down that iteration of reasoning, you will always eventually end up at the same root driver: the Sun.
I know that it is a useful parameter for correlating activity. I just don't think it offers a complete explanation.

Put another way, if we are looking at severe weather and someone says "unlikely to see tornadoes tomorrow, not enough CAPE." Sure, CAPE is arguably the best single measure of instability for severe wx. But rather than just blame it on CAPE, we like to look at why CAPE is low. And no, we will not trace the origins of this problem to the sun, we will be reasonable and realize that maybe the atmospheric profile is saturated, or maybe there is too much dry air in the low levels. And maybe the low levels are too dry because we have a cold GOMEX or we haven't had enough time for the moist Gulf air to return to the Plains. Those are all reasonable explanations which take it a little bit further than simply saying "yeah it's not unstable enough, not gonna happen, sorry folks."

I know it isn't easy to track the origins of the lack of vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic (likely because it is a result of many different things), but I at least like to know some of the main players. Some hypothetical, reasonable explanations to me are the ENSO state, SSTs, the PDO, forcing from the Indian ocean, etc. I guess for me its just nice to know why, even though it may not be easy to find the why.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have a reliable source that Captain James T Kirk will be here June 1st.... No worries.
And Mr. Spock also
As if now leaning towards another year similar to last.
Quoting hurricane23:


last time i viewed the european model it was still suggesting above normal surface pressures.


And higher pressures mean stable conditions that Tropical systems dont like.
Quoting hurricane23:
As if now leaning towards another year similar to last.
Last year was extremely busy, Just very lucky, again
The Gallinippers are going to be a problem here in Florida this year, so it seems
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EAST MESA...AHWATUKEE...TEMPE...
PHOENIX...PARADISE VALLEY...MESA...CHANDLER...

* UNTIL 345 PM MST

* AT 233 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ARIZONA MILLS MALL...OR NEAR AHWATUKEE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FIESTA MALL...FREESTONE PARK...PAPAGO PARK...TEMPE MARKETPLACE...
MESA RIVERVIEW MALL...DOWNTOWN MESA...DOWNTOWN SCOTTSDALE...
CAMELBACK MOUNTAIN...PIESTEWA PEAK PARK...SUPERSTITION SPRINGS
MALL...SALT RIVER INDIAN COMMUNITY AND FALCON FIELD AIRPORT
Though it's the long range GFS, and unlikely to occur at this point, something about seeing 2000 j/kg of CAPE in March is impressive.

This is accompanied with the powerful system I mentioned we'd have to watch out for in late March the other day. The GFS has not dropped it, and in fact, has shown a stronger depiction of the low.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The city of Worcester, MA, has surpassed 100" of snow for the season.


The closest I have gotten to that is 70"
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Last year was extremely busy, Just very lucky, again


You bet! Its really all matter of luck.
This time of year, to keep SSTs warm, you really need to keep mid-latitude cyclones from digging too far south and bringing their continental airmasses into the tropics. That's why a -NAO as levi mentioned is good for SSTs - it blocks storms from digging southward.


There is a threat of severe weather in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today, watch possible (60%).

Mesoscale discussion #252
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, I gave you an entire wikipedia article on why nuclear radiation in the air is bad. In case you didn't read it, here are the first three sentences:

"Nuclear fallout, or simply fallout, also known as Black Rain, is the residual radioactive material propelled into the upper atmosphere following a nuclear blast or a nuclear reaction conducted in an unshielded facility, so called because it "falls out" of the sky after the explosion and shock wave have passed. It commonly refers to the radioactive dust and ash created when a nuclear weapon explodes, but such dust can also originate from a damaged nuclear plant.
This radioactive dust, consisting of material either directly vaporized by a nuclear blast or charged by exposure, is a highly dangerous kind of radioactive contamination."


Nuclear radiation is highly dangerous, I'm not sure why you still don't understand this. Yes, airburst explosions will create less nuclear fallout and yes, the initial radiation exposure from the explosion is the most harmful, but the residual radiation left in the surrounding environment is still very harmful. There is no denying that. How harmful it is depends on the strength of the explosion, and our position relative to the explosion, but regardless, radiation in the air is bad. Last night you were insisting radiation in the air is harmless and safe. Truth is, no amount of nuclear radiation is ever good for any living being. You are wrong, end of discussion.
Are you serious? You are twisting my words to the extreme. At no point did I ever say that radiation was safe coming down to the earth. I was discussing how radiation is not harmful as long as it stays in the atmosphere for the most part. From the article you gave me, "After an air burst, fission products, un-fissioned nuclear material, and weapon residues vaporized by the heat of the fireball condense into a fine suspension of small particles 10 nm to 20 µm in diameter. These particles may be quickly drawn up into the stratosphere, particularly if the explosive yield exceeds 10 kt." The stratosphere is an area 10-13km to 50km above ground level. Most precipitant weather does not occur in this area other than very tall thunderstorms. I know some radiation filters down from the stratosphere but not in concentrations dangerous enough to humans (In the longer term). Also from the article, "Fallout radiation decays exponentially relatively quickly with time. Most areas become fairly safe for travel and decontamination after three to five weeks."


Looks like all the rain has passed.....

The Rain Song
Quoting originalLT:
Max, I noticed that too with the "community activity" Seems weird. (Post 162)


you said you got 3-4"...?
The report below is not even close to yours...

STAMFORD 10.0 130 PM 3/08 PUBLIC
Its over. How relieving.
everything working normal again
Longs Peak is officially socked in...

Snapshot:



Live Webcam:



Snow should be starting here in Nederland in the next few hours:



Longs Peak is in the extreme northwest of Boulder County, which is the mostly rectangular county in the middle of the radar image.
So, two feet of snow later (I'm in Rutland, ma), does anyone else think there's some retrograde in this low?
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/wv_e ast_anim.gif
This low looks like it means business:

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are you serious? You are twisting my words to the extreme. At no point did I ever say that radiation was safe coming down to the earth.
And that's exactly my point. What makes you think it just stays in the atmosphere for eternity? Have you not heard of a high pressure system? Air does sink, it doesn't rise forever, that particulate matter will come back down eventually. Hence, the word fallout.


Regarding the rest of the post...

"These particles may be quickly drawn up into the stratosphere..."

Key word is may. Clearly some of it does not make it to the startosphere and falls down long before that. Even with the matter that does make it to the stratosphere, sure some of it decays, but then you still have cesium-137 and strontium-90 which last much, much longer than a few weeks.

Your point is moot anyway, radiation is bad. Can we move on?
Highest snowfall reports:

Mass
24.1" at South Weymouth, MA.....TWO FEET+ ..yay!

Conn
23" at Staffordville, CT

Rhode Island
11" at Burrillville, RI

New York
15" at Chester, NY

New Hampshire
15.5 at Hudson, NH

Maine
13" at Acton, ME
Quoting aspectre:
94 JustPlantIt: Earthquake's booms big enough to be detected from orbit
The European Space Agency’s GOCE satellite was not designed to be an earthquake eavesdropper. The satellite is basically a giant accelerometer...
But a group of researchers...decided to examine the satellite’s data for...the direct effect of the earthquake’s [extremely low frequency] infrasound boom reaching the satellite.
Since the satellite’s orbit is still technically in the Earth’s atmosphere [thermosphere], it could detect the fluctuations in air density caused by the passing sound waves.
The satellite's activity depend on maintaining it in an incredibly precise orbit by using jets to compensate for drag. The momentary increases in atmospheric density caused by the earthquake's sound waves increased the drag on the satellite, triggering the jets.
Since this had never been done before, the researchers claim the mantle of "first seismometer in orbit around the Earth" for the GOCE satellite.
Thanks. It never occurred to me that the atmosphere above the KarmanLine remained dense enough for a sound wave to sufficiently keep its shape to be detectable.
I knew that gravity waves were produced by meteors, but that's all the way down in the mesosphere
Thank you for highlighting this. Have been trying to find new info on quakes and 'New Madrid'. This was an exciting find for me today despite my dog. I would like if you would also post about 'Volstock'. I'm sure people on this site are aware but still of interest. I could not do that either. Lake 'Volstock' and unknown bacteria.
Quoting TomTaylor:
And that's exactly my point. What makes you think it just stays in the atmosphere for eternity? It has to come back down eventually. Hence, the word fallout.


Regarding the rest of the post...

"These particles may be quickly drawn up into the stratosphere..."

Clearly the key word is may. Clearly some of it does not make it to the startosphere and falls down long before that. Even with the matter that does make it to the stratosphere, sure some of it decays, but then you still have cesium-137 and strontium-90 which last much, much longer than a few weeks.
Yes that is true and there is a big debate going on the lasting effects of those particles. What I am arguing is that those long lasting radioactive particles do not cause serious damage because they do not come down to earth in sufficient concentrations from airbursts. Of course we could argue for years on if that is true or not. Glad we cleared that misunderstanding.

Edit: I see you add to your post, you have to look at things from a pros & cons prospective. All things are bad. The sun produces radiation that can cause cancer but we are not going to blow up the sun are we? Sometimes the use of nuclear weapons to end a war can outweigh the consequences of not using such a weapon. That being said I hope no conflict arises to the point of nuclear detonation but if the use will save lives I think it should be used.
I can not + anything here! Thought that the problems were solved.
NWS Boston %u200F@NWSBoston

The 14.9" of snow today at #Worcester set a record snowfall for March 8.
The previous record was 9.0" in 1941.
Another take on why the GFS lags behind:
Why European forecasters saw Sandy’s path first
A very short summary of the differences: Money. The Europeans spend more on raw computational resources, so they can take advantage of higher spatial resolution and other computational methods that cannot be integrated into the GFS on an operational schedule, due to the lack of access to sufficient CPU cycles.

I've been though many "reorganizations" in my own career in the past, most if not all were a monumental waste of time, political exercises to alter the power structure for the benefit of the managerial class ... taking time away from real work left undone.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
I can not + anything here! Thought that the problems were solved.


I can plus you, so it isn't broken.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I can not + anything here! Thought that the problems were solved.
leave blog then come back in maybe that will fix it
Well, I posted the Rain Song and it washed away those doom messages. A little bit of Led Zeppelin will fix almost anything.
234. VR46L
Quoting guygee:
Another take on why the GFS lags behind:
Why European forecasters saw Sandy’s path first
A very short summary of the differences: Money. The Europeans spend more on raw computational resources, so they can take advantage of higher spatial resolution and other computational methods that cannot be integrated into the GFS on an operational schedule, due to the lack of access to sufficient CPU cycles.

I've been though many "reorganizations" in my own career in the past, most if not all were a monumental waste of time, political exercises to alter the power structure for the benefit of the managerial class ... taking time away from real work left undone.



The european model is not dependent on taxpayers .. they charge for their services which I think is a good idea . They have to produce a good product because no one would buy it otherwise .. also they by charging are able to invest in their product . I dont believe its a profit making enterprise more a self sufficient one.
Maybe I'm broke.... ok literally and since I went to a site today, all has been misfit. Thought when I did not see a timeclock on Community that all was well... shut down again and erase.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I can not anything here! Thought that the problems were solved.

The plus feature is working for me.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Boston and Providence are both still under a winter storm warning. Looks like I did fairly well, besides the fact that totals are higher than I expected in Mass.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The plus feature is working for me.


Boston and Providence are both still under a winter storm warning. Looks like i did fairly well, besides the fact that totals are higher than I expected in Mass.


yep you did good there
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Nice spin there Keep... My Great-niece said there was hail at her school briefly. How high did your temp get today up there?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes that is true and there is a big debate going on the lasting effects of those particles. What I am arguing is that those long lasting radioactive particles do not cause serious damage because they do not come down to earth in sufficient concentrations from airbursts. Of course we could argue for years on if that is true or not. Glad we cleared that misunderstanding.

Edit: I see you add to your post, you have to look at things from a pros & cons prospective. All things are bad. The sun produces radiation that can cause cancer but we are not going to blow up the sun are we? Sometimes the use of nuclear weapons to end a war can outweigh the consequences of not using such a weapon. That being said I hope no conflict arises to the point of nuclear detonation but if the use will save lives I think it should be used.
Well "serious damage" is a relative term, and also has the word damage already in it, implying at least some damage will be done.

Anyway, I agree with the edited part of your post, there are definitely some situations where a nuclear bomb could be appropriate. Sorry for my lack of patience yesterday and today, but let us move on lol
240. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Well, I posted the Rain Song and it washed away those doom messages. A little bit of Led Zeppelin will fix almost anything.


Not a fan of Zeppelin much but the song posted inspired me to listen to this one Eurythmics - Here Comes The Rain Again

Been raining all day here :(
Quoting VR46L:


The european model is not dependent on taxpayers .. they charge for their services which I think is a good idea . They have to produce a good product because no one would buy it otherwise .. also they by charging are able to invest in their product . I dont believe its a profit making enterprise more a self sufficient one.
I have to disagree on "the good idea" part ... the information should be public, it is in the public interest both from very practical and also educational viewpoints. I have noticed that the availability of scientific literature to the public in general is being closed off after a relative Renaissance of free information during the internet of the 1990's. To see us go the way of the ECMWF and close off public access to products would be tragic and another step down into the abyss.
Plantit -- clear your cache. Your cache is corrupted, I think.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Nice spin there Keep... My Great-niece said there was hail at her school briefly. How high did you temp get today up there?
made it to 45 outside my door today may get close to 50 tomorrow before the rain moves in for sun/mon then cools again another 10 days before the sun crosses the line then spring will be in full swing hopefully

and our ne friends can finally get some good snow melt happening and more spring like weather
Quoting VR46L:


Not a fan of Zeppelin much but the song posted inspired me to listen to this one Eurythmics - Here Comes The Rain Again

Been raining all day here :(


Good song, good choice. Rain stopped here. 53.3 now, but that will be about it. but there is hope.

245. VR46L
Quoting guygee:
I have to disagree on "the good idea" part ... the information should be public, it is in the public interest both from very practical and also educational viewpoints. I have noticed that the availability of scientific literature to the public in general is being closed off after a relative Renaissance of free information during the internet of the 1990's. To see us go the way of the ECMWF and close off public access to products would be tragic and another step down into the abyss.


I dont know , I can deal with the models that can be got free from the euro .... I actually think its awful that the American Taxpayer is subsiding Private Multi million Dollar companies like Fox , Accu and TWC .These companies dont have to pay for the product from the GFS but have to from the EURO and people wonder why the GFS is falling behind , What member of the general public needs to see every ensemble run When the main run has been woeful since June !

Just my opinion .
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well "serious damage" is a relative term, and also has the word damage already in it, implying at least some damage will be done.

Anyway, I agree with the edited part of your post, there are definitely some situations where a nuclear bomb could be appropriate. Sorry for my lack of patience yesterday and today, but let us move on lol
Agreed, I have no idea why I am on the computer anyway. I am staying at this awesome place in Costa Rica I should be outside now that it has cooled down!
Quoting VR46L:


Not a fan of Zeppelin much but the song posted inspired me to listen to this one Eurythmics - Here Comes The Rain Again

:(

Zep would have to be my favorite rock band of all time. To me, they define the word "rock band". Beatles may have been the greatest/most influential band of all time, but Zeppelin defines "Rock 'n' Roll".

Floyd, Hendrix, Stones, and Doors are also some of my favorites of that time. Eagles, Aerosmith and The Who were decent too, but they never really had a cool, defined style I could identify with. They just kinda blended their sounds in there and became ridiculously popular.
248. VR46L
Quoting TomTaylor:
:(

Zep would have to be my favorite rock band of all time. To me, they define the word "rock band". Beatles may have been the greatest/most influential band of all time, but Zeppelin defines Rock 'n' Roll.

Floyd, Hendrix, Stones, and Doors are also some of my favorites. Eagles, Aerosmith and The Who were decent too, but they never really defined a genre for me. Just kinda blended there sounds in there and became ridiculously popular.


Would rather listen to the Pistols or the clash than Zepplin . But I do like the stones ,kinks doors and beatles .

Here's one we can agree on .The Doors - Riders on the storm
Quoting PedleyCA:
Well, I posted the Rain Song and it washed away those doom messages. A little bit of Led Zeppelin will fix almost anything.
Yes, Jimmy Page
Quoting VR46L:


Not a fan of Zeppelin much but the song posted inspired me to listen to this one Eurythmics - Here Comes The Rain Again

Been raining all day here :(
Annie Lennox
Quoting VR46L:


Would rather listen to the Pistols or the clash than Zepplin . But I do like the stones ,kinks doors and beatles .

Here's one we can agree on .The Doors - Riders on the storm


Saw the Doors/Chambers Brothers and Steppenwolf at the Hollywood Bowl
7/5/1968. All three were Great.
Still a big Leon Russell fan....Have seen him 10 times. We all get older ,but he is still great...

I've been so many places in my life and times
254. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Saw the Doors/Chamber Brothers and Steppenwolf at the Hollywood Bowl
7/5/1968. All three were Great.


That must have been some concert ! but before my time but its good to hear real good music, very little truly modern stuff is ! sigh
Quoting VR46L:


That must have been some concert ! but before my time but its good to hear real good music, very little truly modern stuff is ! sigh


This is so TRUE.... Only good music today is from the old groups still going.
Quoting PedleyCA:


This is so TRUE.... Only good music today is from the old groups still going.
I watch the Grammy's and other music award shows on TV... I never have heard of most of the so called "talent"... There is no singing, just rythmic talkin', or am I missing something I do not understand.
Don't Worry Baby

Real Words that you understand and they make sense..... lol
260. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Don't Worry Baby

Real Words that you understand and they make sense..... lol


That is lovely , I dont remember hearing it before !

What I was going to say is apart from a couple of guitar band in the last 15 years there has been little apart from Adele to listen to .

But I am out , Good night folks !!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082143Z - 090015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND LATER
INTO PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS. TIMING IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 23-01Z.

DISCUSSION...DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF
WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HAS RECENTLY
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT WWD AS
MIXING DIMINISHES WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHARACTER OF
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NAM PFCS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL CAPPED EAST OF DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD BENEATH AN EML. THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NWD WHERE AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
CURRENTLY EXISTS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK.

HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH NM
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOIST
AXIS OVER WRN TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE TO AOA 45 KT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS SHOULD KEEP TORNADO WINDOW RELATIVELY SMALL.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013
Levi if your on i was trying to use your temp anomaly maps but cant find any links on your site.

Thanks
224 JustPlantIt: I would like if you would also post about...Lake Volstock and unknown bacteria.
Russian scientists may have found new life under Antarctic ice
...Russia pierced through Antarctica's frozen crust last year and took back samples of water from a vast lake that has lain untouched for at least 14 million year.
"After excluding all known contaminants, bacterial DNA was found that does not match any known species in world databases," Sergei Bulat of the St Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute told RIA.
Hi, all... since yesterday, when I reach the bottom of a page and click on the next page number there, it goes to the *bottom* of the next page, not the first post on the next page the way it's done it for years. Not a huge problem, but a real pain.

Does anyone else have this problem, or anyone know what happened yesterday or the day before to start it for me?

And does anyone know how I might fix it? Thanks...

Jo
It's done. Finally. Highest total in the state: 29.8"... 21" for me.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's done. Finally. Highest total in the state: 29.8". 21" for me.


And that came from a system that was supposed to move well south of New England.This was a strange term of events from busts to way above snow totals than expected.
you are having a talk in austin, with the ceo of the weather channel, which is owned by nbc, the largest liberal mass media mob in the world? the weather channel does nothing but spew global warming propaganda and weather fear mongering 24-7. btw, a snowstorm is coming and they have named it triton, but is its only supposed to snow 2 inches. you cant fool me...
give it up CFM
Quoting hurricane23:
Levi if your on i was trying to use your temp anomaly maps but cant find any links on your site.

Thanks


They should be right there in the region page, if temperature anomalies are available for that region (I don't plot them for more irrelevant regions, like oceans).

e.g. for GFS ensembles North America:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And that came from a system that was supposed to move well south of New England.This was a strange term of events from busts to way above snow totals than expected.

I feel bad for the local TV mets up here. Make no mistake, they busted big time, and are certainly held to higher standards. Probably as big a bust as I've ever seen (obviously a different kind of bust then what happened in DC). But they don't deserve all the heat they're getting from people. No one could have predicted this happening- this just doesn't happen when a storm is this far away. It's been a rough winter for forecasters up here... every storm is a challenge but this winter's been particularly hard.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Lots of consistency, confidence, and consensus in the future track of the next system...not
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's done. Finally. Highest total in the state: 29.8"... 21" for me.
Wow, that's way more than I thought you guys were going to get. Saturn is surely full of surprises.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wow, that's way more than I thought you guys were going to get. Saturn is surely fully of surprises.


surely fully?

You mean surely FULL right?

lol buddy
Quoting Astrometeor:


surely fully?

You mean surely FULL right?

lol buddy

Yeah, that's what I meant. I just woke up from a nap so I' still a little sleepy... It's not strange at all I took a nap.
Quoting Levi32:


They should be right there in the region page, if temperature anomalies are available for that region (I don't plot them for more irrelevant regions, like oceans).

e.g. for GFS ensembles North America:



I knew that :0)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
10:46 AM EST March 9 2013
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (981 hPa) located at 15.2S 158.2E or 1290 km east northeast of Townsville and 1170 km northwest of Noumea has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.7S 159.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.4S 160.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.6S 161.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.0S 162.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak Analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.9 degree wrap on a log10 spiral with an added 0.5 for 1 degree wide band on visible imagery. This gives DT of 4.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on DT, though restricted by rules.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has generally developed at a standard rate over the last24 hours with the overall organization of the system now exhibiting a clean curved band pattern. Sandra should continue to develop at this rate over the next 24 hours, though there is the potential for rapid intensification with the system expected to continue to move in a low wind shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures.

Sandra is expected to continue to move in an east to southeast direction over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-level trough moving across the Pacific Ocean to the southeast of New Caledonia. The system should adopt more of a south to southeast track on Monday as the mid-level trough weakens and as a result allowing an upper level high to the north of Fiji to become the dominant steering influence.
Looks Like the really cold temps are over for Tampa bay..
Nasa says we might see this comet at twilight cool huh...says we can see it best at twilight and dont need a telescope
gee this might help the drought stricken states huh..
...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ARKANSAS...

CACHE RIVER NEAR PATTERSON AFFECTING JACKSON AND WOODRUFF COUNTIES


RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION...SELECT RIVER AND LAKES AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

EVERYONE WITH PROPERTY OR OTHER INTEREST ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS
CHANGE...LOOK FOR RIVER FORECAST OR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR USE IN MAKING
INFORMED DECISIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Quoting LargoFl:
Nasa says we might see this comet at twilight cool huh..says we can see it best at twilight and dont need a telescope


Is that PanSTARRS Largo?
Quoting NEwxguy:
MA,
I haven't taken my readings yet,but suspect it will be close to you,but whats really amazing.In the blizzard it was a much fluffier snow,so it was easier to accumulate higher totals,this was a very wet and compact snow,so the snow totals are really impressive.

I got 24 here in Rockland! I said 14 inches before it came off the coast.forcasters said 6 " It was the size of the storm that skewed the models. This storm was massive. It was going to stall but I didn't think the precip would be so heavy that far away. Another amazing storm but Nemo was much faster to accumulate. Nemo was just amazing with the Tundersnow and the drifting. My front lawn is an even 24 this time. The snow from Nemo just left the grass before this one. I love blizzards! New England is the best for the deep snow storms!
Quoting AETHOMAS:
Does Saturn somehow remind you a bit of Sandy??

Hum....


Yes and no. Size yes but how it grew no
Quoting Astrometeor:


Is that PanSTARRS Largo?
Yes thats the one
Quoting flibinite:
Hi, all... since yesterday, when I reach the bottom of a page and click on the next page number there, it goes to the *bottom* of the next page, not the first post on the next page the way it's done it for years. Not a huge problem, but a real pain.

Does anyone else have this problem, or anyone know what happened yesterday or the day before to start it for me?

And does anyone know how I might fix it? Thanks...

Jo


They know about this issue. I have been just knocking the top off the end whenever I see it and you
could bookmark that and use it as it works a bit better and when ya
change pages just go up and change the number in the url and hit enter.
I hope they fix that as it is real annoying. If you post it will revert to that
again. So good luck with that, play with it and see what works for you.
Quoting LargoFl:
Nasa says we might see this comet at twilight cool huh...says we can see it best at twilight and dont need a telescope

I saw it last week with naked eyes. no need for telescope or binoculars
Quoting AussieStorm:

I saw it last week with naked eyes. no need for telescope or binoculars
wow bet it was an awesome site huh aussie...this month we can see it up here..
CAPE CANAVERAL --
NASA says the next few days hold the best opportunity to spot a comet without at telescope or binoculars as it passes through the solar system.
The comet 2011 L4 or Pan-STARRS was discovered in June 2011 and was only visible in the southern hemisphere until now.
Those in the northern hemisphere with an unobstructed view to the southwest will be able to see it.
NASA scientists say the small window around twilight will be best as it won’t be too bright, but wait too long and the comet will be too low to see.
On Sunday, March 10, the comet will make its closest approach to the sun about 28 million miles away, which means the sun's glare might make it hard to spot.
That should clear by March 12, and by the end of March the comet will no longer be visible.
NASA described the look of the comet as an “exclamation point,” adding that it will look like a “bright point of light in the sky with a tail pointing nearly straight up from the horizon.”
well good night folks..and good morning aussie..have a safe one.
Thanks, Pedley... I'm just glad they know about it, at least, and that it's not just me. I'll try messing around with a few things, and the URL, like you said, in the meantime.

Jo
Quoting LargoFl:
wow bet it was an awesome site huh aussie...this month we can see it up here..

there is also another comet, called Comet Lemmon. I'm not sure if you guys up north will be able to see it. Here is a page I have that has relevant info.
Link


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...FAR WRN OK...FAR
SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090124Z - 090300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND COULD SUPPORT AN
UPSWING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...BUT SOME SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 01Z SHOW A DRYLINE ALIGNED
LONGITUDINALLY NEAR I-27 SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RETREAT WWD ACROSS THE
TX S PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHERE A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
INCREASE AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS WAS NOTED AT KLBB. SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER APPEAR TO BE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. STRONG/SVR GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS THE
SWRN TX PANHANDLE PER THE TTU WEST TEXAS MESONET. WITH
TIME...INCREASING ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/E.G. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S/ E OF THE DRYLINE AND
SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL CAP NEAR 500 MB PER THE 00Z MAF
SOUNDING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE DMGG
WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 03/09/2013


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35269964 34159999 33450075 32810140 32410216 32740278
33280284 35320203 36890149 37190115 37390047 37349937
35269964
Quoting AussieStorm:

there is also another comet, called Comet Lemmon. I'm not sure if you guys up north will be able to see it. Here is a page I have that has relevant info.
Link


Lemmon is iffy for us, my family is excited about PanSTARRS and later with ISON.

Lemmon in North?
Quoting flibinite:
Thanks, Pedley... I'm just glad they know about it, at least, and that it's not just me. I'll try messing around with a few things, and the URL, like you said, in the meantime.

Jo


Been doing it to me too, so not just you!
Aussie:
Whar abouts in the sky should we be looking for the comet?
Quoting PedleyCA:
Time Has Come Today


Love that one...though love The Ramones version just as much and have to admit...pretty sure I heard The Ramones version first.

You know my daughter's 15, and she prefers a lot of music I like over anything current, or well, since she was born LOL Thank goodness for that I suppose! But she plays dj in the car, and she likes a lot of 80's new wave type stuff, loves my fav band which is on the punky side and likes things heavier than me. She also really likes classical music. But she really hates jazz for some reason!

Anyway, sat image, Saturn does look Sandy'esque. I didn't think Saturn was a nor'easter though. didn't is drop down from Canada/nothern plains? I thought nor'easters were ones that formed south and headed up the eastern seaboard?!
Quoting ycd0108:
Aussie:
Whar abouts in the sky should we be looking for the comet?

Which one? Lemmon? Lemmon is higher in the sky than Panstarrs. This photo is a bit old but shows where Lemmon and Panstarrs are located. This may be only for Southern Hemisphere.



Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's done. Finally. Highest total in the state: 29.8"... 21" for me.


impressive!
In addition to the snowy and severe side, Triton also has an icy side. As you can see by the local storm report (LSR) on the image below, some locations have already recorded a tenth of an inch of ice. Further significant icing is forecast tonight, and some cities--such as Millbank--may pick up a half an inch of ice.

Severe thunderstorm to the east of Amarillo capable of producing 1.00" hail and 60mph winds. Click to enlarge.


Quoting wxchaser97:
Severe thunderstorm to the east of Amarillo capable of producing 1.00" hail and 60mph winds. Click to enlarge.




Wow, 20 minutes between entries. I'm glad you wrote something 97.
Good Evening Sensei....
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Evening Sensei....


Good Evening, Grasshopper. Up late?
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, 20 minutes between entries. I'm glad you wrote something 97.


well in the active hurricane season will be 20 entries per minute...or more
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one? Lemmon? Lemmon is higher in the sky than Panstarrs. This photo is a bit old but shows where Lemmon and Panstarrs are located. This may be only for Southern Hemisphere.



Link


Hi Aussie,

Panstarrs is just coming into good viewing in our northern subtropics, the rest of the northern hemisphere by March 12. I'll try to check it out next eve. Decent article with other images taken in Australia at skyandtelescope.

- cheers
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well in the active hurricane season will be 20 entries per minute...or more


I agree. But most of them will read, "Do you see an eye?"
Quoting Grothar:


I agree. But most of them will read, "Do you see an eye?"


actually they could be about 20 people posting a new advisory or an interesting TWO..
Nah, only 7:25PM here.... still got :35 minutes.....lol
Quoting Grothar:

Do you see an eye?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one? Lemmon? Lemmon is higher in the sky than Panstarrs. This photo is a bit old but shows where Lemmon and Panstarrs are located. This may be only for Southern Hemisphere.



Link


PS - for folks wanting to find a star chart to find comets, asteroids, ISS, etc - I recommend the site heavensabove dot com. On this site you can enter your lat lon and get satellite predictions as well. Chris Peat runs the site from Germany and started it many years ago under the German Space Agency DLR.
something like this..watch!

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.


freak out time!!!!!!!! lol
Gnight to all!
A blog update on Saturn, Triton, and the drought. The best part of taking a nap earlier today, is that I'm more awake to do something like this!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Gnight to all!


g'nite - if in US your weekend is only 47 hours (except Arizona, Hawaii, Virgin Islands, et al)! -cheers

Quoting docrod:


g'nite - if in US your weekend is only 47 hours (except Arizona, Hawaii, Virgin Islands, et al)! -cheers


It's 16:24pm Saturday the 9th day of March of the year Two Thousand and Thirteen here In Sydney Australia. LOL
There is a severe thunderstorm near Kaffir, TX capable of producing half-dollar sized hail and strong winds. It definitely seems like heavy rain, hail, and strong winds is a threat with this cell. The cell looks to pass just to the east of Amarillo and the NWS radar, still capable of producing hail and wind. Click to enlarge.
Good nite everyone.

Quoting AussieStorm:

It's 16:24pm Saturday the 9th day of March of the year Two Thousand and Thirteen here In Sydney Australia. LOL


lolrotf
Keeping an eye on Saturn for some subtropical development.It's not out of the woods folks.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's 16:24pm Saturday the 9th day of March of the year Two Thousand and Thirteen here In Sydney Australia. LOL


Let's have a rational explanation of DST

Link

- good eve or g'day to you - rod
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
4:36 PM EST March 9 2013
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (980 hPa) located at 15.4S 158.8E or 1340 km east northeast of Townsville and 1110 km northwest of Noumea. has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.0S 160.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.6S 160.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2S 162.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.7S 163.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Dvorak Analysis based on a curved band pattern with 1.0 degree wrap on a log10 spiral with an added 0.5 banding feature on visible imagery. This gives DT of 4.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on DT.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has generally developed at a standard rate over the last 24 hours with the system showing signs of developing an eye, albeit with ragged convection around it. Sandra should continue to develop at this rate over the next 24 hours, with potential for rapid intensification as the system is expected to continue to move in a low wind shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures.

Sandra is expected to continue to move in an east to southeast direction over the next 36 hours influence of a mid-level trough moving across the Pacific Ocean to the southeast of New Caledonia. The system should adopt more of a south to southeast track on Monday as the mid-level trough weakens and as a result allows an upper level ridge to the north of Fiji to become the dominant steering influence.
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Keeping an eye on Saturn for some subtropical development.It's not out of the woods folks.


Based on what?
Good evening to those down under!

Good morning to those up over!
Good Morning folks..............
7-day for Tampa Bay area.............
east coast florida be careful along the coastline....
gee just look at the size of that storm.............
Monday the next one
Good morning to all, evening Aussie. Dry weather will dominate starting on Sunday and lasting thru all of next week. Conditions for those who venture to the beaches are not good so dont go as rip currents are very dangerous.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SAT MAR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT CROSSES
THE REGION AND ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WHICH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE PRESENT PATTERN
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A HIGH ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
TO LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTH EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AND INCREASING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH SHALLOW MOISTURE FRAGMENTS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS APPROACHING
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL BRING FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. SO FAR NOT MUCH
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ONLY A LINE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WAS NOTED QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COASTLINE
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO BRING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VENTILATION
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
DRYING TEND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS WERE STEADILY
ON THE RISE WITH SEAS NOW BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET AROUND 14 SEC AT
BUOYS 41053 AND 41043. SEAS AND SURF ZONE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR
THIS REASON...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 8 AM
AST TODAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MINOR INUNDATION OF THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTS WITH
SOME COASTAL EROSION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LOCAL COASTAL AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 79 71 / 30 20 20 10
STT 83 71 81 72 / 30 20 20 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM AST TUESDAY
FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-
WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM AST TUESDAY
FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
Deleted. Running across conflicting reports about the best viewing days for Panstarrs.
Good morning. Fairly widespread slight risk area for severe weather today... damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible:

Again I bring the fooey, with the Drought Monitor, it shows Georgia in a drought, since December most of Georgia has accumulated between 15 to 20 inches of rain, with that said, I just don't trust our Government anymore, there is always an agenda with their statistics, I don't care what department were talking about.
They are always conning the American people with some kind of stuff. Because their the Government we believe it.
I'm not nuts, I work for the Government, I witness this behavior.
From what I'm seeing the Drought Monitor sponsors are all Federal Government departments, one thing they all have in common, they've all had their budgets sliced since 2009, and now IMO, their stretching the stats to try to improve their budgets.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Again I bring the fooey, with the Drought Monitor, it shows Georgia in a drought, since December most of Georgia has accumulated between 15 to 20 inches of rain, with that said, I just don't trust our Government anymore, there is always an agenda with their statistics, I don't care what department were talking about.
They are always conning the American people with some kind of stuff. Because their the Government we believe it.
I'm not nuts, I work for the Government, I witness this behavior.
From what I'm seeing the Drought Monitor sponsors are all Federal Government departments, one thing they all have in common, they've all had their budgets sliced since 2009, and now IMO, their stretching the stats to try to improve their budgets.
I'm not sure how "stretching the stats" would benefit the government's drought-monitoring entities; soil moisture will be monitored by the same groups regardless of whether it's too wet, too dry, or just right.

Now, if you look at the following 12-week animation, you'll see how Georgia has benefited from the recent rainfall there. Remember, though, the state was in a pretty deep drought, a drought that has lessened considerably and is set to lessen even more (bottom map). But it takes time for deep droughts to reverse themselves. And, as always, a lot of rain all at once isn't nearly as beneficial to that end as a lesser amount of rain spread out over a longer period.

drought

drought

I'm not claiming the government never lies (see: reasons for invading Iraq; Watergate; Joseph McCarthy, et al). But it's a huge stretch to claim that "...they are always conning the American people with some kind of stuff". There are hundreds of thousands of good, dependable, and wholly honest people working with and for the Federal Government whose only agenda is to be truthful.
GCOCE: The first Seismometer in Orbit

Video/ Read more HERE


European Space Agency Article

8 March 2013

Satellites map changes in Earths surface caused by earthquakes but never before have sound waves from a quake been sensed directly in space until now. ESAs hyper-sensitive GOCE gravity satellite has added yet another first to its list of successes.

Earthquakes not only create seismic waves that travel through Earths interior, but large quakes also cause the surface of the planet to vibrate like a drum. This produces sound waves that travel upwards through the atmosphere.

The size of these waves changes from centimetres at the surface to kilometres in the thin atmosphere at altitudes of 200-300 km.

Only low-frequency sound infrasound reaches these heights. It causes vertical movements that expand and contract the atmosphere by accelerating air particles.
Quoting aspectre:
Deleted. Running across conflicting reports about the best viewing days for Panstarrs.
Here's the simplest chart I've run across:

PAN-Starrs

Keep in mind, however, that's it's considerably dimmer than cometwatchers had hoped, so it won't be nearly as bright as it appears in the image. Nevertheless, with optimal viewing conditions--clear, cloudless skies and an unimpeded view of the western horizon--you should be able to see it. (I know I'll be looking.)

The BIG question: will October's Comet ISON also fall short of expectations? Keep your fingers crossed that it doesn't...
Quoting docrod:


PS - for folks wanting to find a star chart to find comets, asteroids, ISS, etc - I recommend the site heavensabove dot com. On this site you can enter your lat lon and get satellite predictions as well. Chris Peat runs the site from Germany and started it many years ago under the German Space Agency DLR.


"This domain may be for sale"

?????
Not often the department of meteorology issues a bulletin for SWELLS :D

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FRIDAY 8TH MARCH, 2013 AT 5PM EDT

A deepening low pressure center off the Carolina Coast is generating moderate to dangerous large swell which will propagate southward during the next seven days.

Moderate to Heavy swells have begun bombarding the coastline of the more eastern islands of the Bahamas Chain including the Turks and Caicos Islands.

These Dangerous swells which could exceed 22 feet during its peak on Sunday will result in Sea Spray and over-topping water, particularly around Long Wharf, Go-Slow Bend, Saunders Beach, areas in the vicinity of the Cave, West Bay Street, Eastern New Providence, the Glass Window Bridge in Eleuthera and other areas throughout the archipelago vulnerable to sea swells.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Fairly widespread slight risk area for severe weather today... damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible:



Yes indeed. Long time lurker looking to become active this year on the blog. My first official post. I'm Rob btw everyone.

SPC AC 090550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WAVES WITHIN SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AS A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FLATTENS RIDGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS
THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. AN IMPULSE SPLITTING OFF THIS FEATURE MAY
DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A CLOSED LOW WITHIN A
SEPARATE STREAM TO THE SOUTH...EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BUT VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE
MODEL DATA CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FACTOR INTO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIG WITHIN LINGERING BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
SHARPENS DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

COOL SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AHEAD OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CYCLONIC BELT OF 70-90 KT 500 MB
FLOW...PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND CONTRIBUTING TO A
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 09/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME
HEATING THEN APPEARS PROBABLE ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAINTAINS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE INDICATES AT
LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW ADVANCING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY
PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON STORM INITIATION...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS....AND PERHAPS AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS
INDICATE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /40-50 KT/ WILL TEND TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. BUT THEY ARE SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST
SOME OVERLAP OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


...CENTRAL KANSAS...
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...NEAR THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE...FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF ENOUGH HEATING IS
ABLE TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR TO STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER. AND UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO LARGE FOR
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 03/09/2013

Quoting Raptor112305:


Yes indeed. Long time lurker looking to become active this year on the blog. My first official post. I'm Rob btw everyone.



Welcome Rob.. :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not sure how "stretching the stats" would benefit the government's drought-monitoring entities; soil moisture will be monitored by the same groups regardless of whether it's too wet, too dry, or just right.... ...There are hundreds of thousands of good, dependable, and wholly honest people working with and for the Federal Government whose only agenda is to be truthful.


10 hears ago I would not have hesitated to agree with this... I have noticed over my few decades of noticing... that people will naturally tend to conform to leadership style and technique, whether in the classroom or on the job etc.. This most recent of admin's has taken us to new levels of CYA, leveraging communication technologies and marketing psychology. Not to be partisan in anyway.. but the ever increasingly shameless demonstration of self-serving, non-genuine blatant, "don't look behind the curtain", "that's not what that means".. approach to leadership encourages the same behavior at all levels.. It is seen as what it takes to succeed... (need more coffee...)
Come July, this will look alot different..



And SST in the GOM as well..

Quoting JNCali:


10 hears ago I would not have hesitated to agree with this... I have noticed over my few decades of noticing... that people will naturally tend to conform to leadership style and technique, whether in the classroom or on the job etc.. This most recent of admin's has taken us to new levels of CYA, leveraging communication technologies and marketing psychology. Not to be partisan in anyway.. but the ever increasingly shameless demonstration of self-serving, non-genuine blatant, "don't look behind the curtain", "that's not what that means".. approach to leadership encourages the same behavior at all levels.. It is seen as what it takes to succeed... (need more coffee...)

I think you've had to much or you need to sitch to decaf. LOL Morning Mate!
I wonder if the BOM will still issue advisories for TC Sandra once she crosses 160E and out of the BOM area of responsibility?



Modis Image..Haze over Korea..3/8/2013

352. VR46L
I see the Slight outlook is starting to set up now



Amarillo

Good morning everyone...what a sunny day here...wow!
Expanding blizzard

RE 342 THRAWST:

Yep, we've got it too. As my other half says, "That's a serious ____ ground sea! No fishing for us for a week or so!"

... High surf advisory remains in effect until 2 PM AST Tuesday...
... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 PM AST this
afternoon through Monday afternoon...

A high surf advisory remains in effect until 2 PM AST Tuesday. A
coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 PM AST this
afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* Waves and surf: large swells of 8 to 10 feet this weekend...
building gradually to 12 feet early Monday morning. This will
result in large breaking waves of 12 to 15 feet this weekend...
and up to 18 feet early Monday morning.

* Timing: starting this morning and continue through at least
Tuesday afternoon.

* Impacts: very large breaking waves will create dangerous surf
conditions and frequent rip currents.

* Coastal flooding: beach erosion is possible around the time of
high tide... especially between Sunday evening and Monday
evening.

The times of the next high tide for the following locations are:

Aguadilla harbor: 6:37 PM AST this evening at 1.07 feet.

Arecibo harbor: 6:51 PM AST this evening at 1.17 feet.

San Juan harbor: 7:10 PM AST this evening at 1.17 feet.

Magens Bay St thomas: 6:30 PM AST this evening at 0.41 feet.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect the local
reefs... beaches and Shoals within the advisory area... producing
dangerous rip currents.

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.

Lindy

To hit 50s today... that does not happen often in the winter here.
yay anyway!
Technical Implementation Notice 13-07
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1010 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2013

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners...and NWS Employees

From: Mark Tew
Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: NWS Transitioning from Deterministic To Probabilistic
Storm Surge Forecasts effective with the
2013 Hurricane Season

Effective with the 2013 hurricane season and thereafter, the NWS
will no longer provide deterministic Sea, Lake, and Overland
Flooding from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model output during tropical
cyclones in an unofficial manner.

The American Meteorological Society and the National Academies of
Science have endorsed greater use of probabilistic forecasts by
NWS. For several years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has
been providing probabilistic storm surge products as part of a
long-term, multiyear NWS effort to improve communications on
storm surge.

SLOSH deterministic guidance was informally provided to some
users over the past several years; however, the deterministic
SLOSH model output has the potential to conflict with the
official NWS forecast for storm surge and to interfere with
evacuation decisions from emergency managers.
Can SOMEONE get us out of this colder than normal airmass?
Quoting Thrawst:
Can SOMEONE get us out of this colder than normal airmass?


Good Morning Thrawst..
They sell tickets at the airport, come on down here..
The weathers fine (for now).. :)
Here's to you getting warmer soon.. :)
I'll have a blog later this afternoon about how the winter season ends to me...all statistics about it.. Check the one I did yesterday, click on my handle...

I have to go buy some groceries now..
362. etxwx
For those who think love of winter and surfing are contradictory:



Surf’s Up On Lake Superior
By Dan Kraker March 9,2012
From WBUR's Only A Game

Excerpt: Bob Tema, a Honolulu native moved to Minnesota more than two decades ago to study graphic design. After living there a couple years, he wondered… could he surf Lake Superior?

After a few years exploring the shore, he discovered there’s some excellent surfing on Lake Superior. When he first started 15 years ago it was just him and a buddy. Now he estimates about 50 surfers ply the winter waves. He says surfing scenes have popped up around the Great Lakes – from Sheboygan, Wis., to Marquette, Mich., — but the premier spot is on Lake Superior, at a place called Stony Point. But the best surf arrives when it’s coldest, when fall and winter storms kick up high winds, big waves and often sub-zero temperatures.

“On those really cold days your eyelids will sometimes get stuck, freeze shut for a bit, you have to kind of pry them open,” Tema said.

The big waves are also intermittent. They might only happen every few weeks. So Tema’s founded the Lake Superior Surf Club with a website where diehards can monitor wave and weather conditions.


Rest of the story and audio here.

And a link the the Superior Surf Club
Morning all... it looks like it is snowing or snowed overnight just about everywhere in WY.... and most of WY is not even in the blizzard warning area... with that low coming in from the south, it could wrap up considerable moisture as it moves into the SW states...
Quoting Thrawst:
Can SOMEONE get us out of this colder than normal airmass?

Jump on a plane and fly to Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. They are in the grip of a heat-wave that's lasted 6 days and will continue for another 5 days. Average temp so far... 93.08°F
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I'll have a blog later this afternoon about how the winter season ends to me...all statistics about it.. Check the one I did yesterday, click on my handle...

I have to go buy some groceries now..

Some milkkkkkkkkkkkkk and some breaddddddddddddddddddd



lol
Quoting Thrawst:
Not often the department of meteorology issues a bulletin for SWELLS :D

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FRIDAY 8TH MARCH, 2013 AT 5PM EDT

A deepening low pressure center off the Carolina Coast is generating moderate to dangerous large swell which will propagate southward during the next seven days.

Moderate to Heavy swells have begun bombarding the coastline of the more eastern islands of the Bahamas Chain including the Turks and Caicos Islands.

These Dangerous swells which could exceed 22 feet during its peak on Sunday will result in Sea Spray and over-topping water, particularly around Long Wharf, Go-Slow Bend, Saunders Beach, areas in the vicinity of the Cave, West Bay Street, Eastern New Providence, the Glass Window Bridge in Eleuthera and other areas throughout the archipelago vulnerable to sea swells.
Well, there goes the recently reimported sand on Saunders Beach again... Since they cut down those casuarinas they haven't been able to keep the sand out of the road...
Quoting AussieStorm:
I wonder if the BOM will still issue advisories for TC Sandra once she crosses 160E and out of the BOM area of responsibility?





they usually don't. Except they re-broadcast the Hurricane/Storm/Gale Warnings from Fiji.
Quoting Thrawst:
Can SOMEONE get us out of this colder than normal airmass?
LOL... wonder if everybody out there realizes u mean 68 degrees.... lol
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 9 2013
=================================

Area of Disturbed Weather southeast of the Chagos Archipelagos:

The suspect area monitored for few days remains badly organized. Convection is still very
fluctuating. Last visible satellite pictures depict a small vortex near 14S 78.5E, totally exposed at about 250 NM northwest of the main convective activity. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1003hPa and winds are in the 15-20 knots range in the northern semi-circle, and reach 30 knots, very locally 35 knots in the southern semi-circle by gradient effect with the subtropical high heights. Environmental conditions are unfavorable, with poor monsoon inflow and moderate to strong northwestern upper level vertical wind shear.

For the next 12 to 24 hours, the system is forecast to move slowly eastward. On and after, it is expected to recurve westward within the low level trade-ward flow. On this track, environmental conditions are expected to degrade (weakening monsoon inflow and strengthening of the upper level vertical wind shear at the beginning of the forecast period). System is expected to fill up on and after Monday within the trade flow.

For the next 72 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor.
@ Thrawst - one of the down sides of being at the coast in the winter is the way it feels colder than everywhere else because of the water. A cool temp that is bearable at my house 3 miles inland is sticky and uncomfortable out by Delaporte...
Areas NE of Cheyenne, WY are getting snowed upon....



BTW, this is a great website to see what's happening in WY weather, although it is firstly a road / traffic site...

WYoRoad Webcams
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning Thrawst..
They sell tickets at the airport, come on down here..
The weathers fine (for now).. :)
Here's to you getting warmer soon.. :)


LOL, I hope you know I live in the Bahamas. It's quite bone chilling cold (70 degrees) here!

Quoting AussieStorm:

Jump on a plane and fly to Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. They are in the grip of a heat-wave that's lasted 6 days and will continue for another 5 days. Average temp so far... 93.08°F


Coming, now. It's maddening because if I can't go to the beach due to poor weather, I'd go and watch supercells do their thing on radar. Unfortunately, no big systems (due to COLD! -__-) upcoming for severe wx.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, there goes the recently reimported sand on Saunders Beach again... Since they cut down those casuarinas they haven't been able to keep the sand out of the road...


LMAO, the funny thing is, I feel more for the reefs on the northern side. They are getting 20-25 footers right now! I'm gonna take pictures of the surf here later today when I go with a bunch of skimmers. Checked it out yesterday and it looked like this could be a serious event after a 4 month lull in swell activity.

Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... wonder if everybody out there realizes u mean 68 degrees.... lol


Only you would understand :s hahaha
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ Thrawst - one of the down sides of being at the coast in the winter is the way it feels colder than everywhere else because of the water. A cool temp that is bearable at my house 3 miles inland is sticky and uncomfortable out by Delaporte...


Quite a salty airmass today. lol
stay alert texas....................
whew get your cars under cover,Big Hailstones possible..
from texas to minn..thats the next Cold front..
Quoting ThePineBaron:


"This domain may be for sale"

?????


Here is the problem, there is a hyphen in there.

heavens-above dot com or http://heavens-above.com/

Heavens-Above
Quoting AussieStorm:

I think you've had to much or you need to sitch to decaf. LOL Morning Mate!
evening Aussie... I will consider your assessment as to the probable elevated levels of caffiene... Coffee sequester activated... :)


One More Day - 52.7 here (7:48) forecast 63 (WU)
The Midwest storm looks like another very beneficial system. It should help to continue the reduction in the extent and severity of the drought.
The West should begin warming up soon, but even through the long range, GFS ensembles keep much of the East below average.

Quoting pcola57:
Modis Image..Haze over Korea..3/8/2013



I hope everybody has a nice Saturday. A bit dusty in Japan though ...


A yellow haze settles over Osaka as dust from China and Mongolia blows into town. | KYODO

Sandstorms from northern China and Mongolia are forecast to reach Tokyo this weekend, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Yellow desert dust from China’s northwestern provinces and Mongolia will reach Tokyo at about 3 a.m. Saturday and remain until Sunday morning, according to the agency’s website. Visibility in the Japanese capital will be reduced to 10 km from 40 km at normal levels, the agency said.

The sandstorm, which reached the southern island of Kyushu around noon today, will coincide with graduation ceremonies of some Tokyo schools and universities scheduled to be held Saturday. Tokyo is forecast to be fine and sunny tomorrow, with temperatures expected to reach a maximum of 17 degrees.

Measurements of PM2.5, fine airborne particulates that pose the largest health risks, are not likely to rise significantly due to the sandstorms, Takahisa Goto, an official at the environment ministry said by phone today. Japan’s environment ministry last week said local authorities should issue warnings when concentrations rise to an average of 70 micrograms per cubic meter per hour.

Japan considers PM2.5 readings of 35 micrograms per cubic meter to be safe.


Source
Wasn't expecting to see the significant tornado parameter so...high today. We may have to watch out for a strong tornado or two associated with any supercells that develop ahead of the line this afternoon.



Hodographs are pretty decent:


About forthcoming comet PANSTARRS. German video but with some nice selfexplaining animations.
Quoting Thrawst:


Quite a salty airmass today. lol
LOL... I'm going out myself in a bit, and if I can will drive past Saunders Beach... maybe down the west coast. GoSlow bend should be getting some fair sized waves today and tomorrow. I can't begin to imagine the coastal erosion problems in places like Cat Island and Eleuthera... it's amazing how a system 500 miles away can have such an impact on our little islands...

The SPC has added 5% tornado probabilities (and accordingly a slight risk) across central Nebraska and north-central Kansas. This is northeast of the main low, where storms have access to steep lapse rates and marginal instability.

Some areas in Nebraska are under a slight risk of severe weather today, nothing to unusual right? Well for tonight that same area is under a blizzard warning/winter weather advisory and could get 3-6" of snow.

392. txjac
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... I'm going out myself in a bit, and if I can will drive past Saunders Beach... maybe down the west coast. GoSlow bend should be getting some fair sized waves today and tomorrow. I can't begin to imagine the coastal erosion problems in places like Cat Island and Eleuthera... it's amazing how a system 500 miles away can have such an impact on our little islands...



Sorry Baha ..attempted to plus your post and accidentally hit the minus ...
Quoting PedleyCA:


One More Day - 52.7 here (7:48) forecast 63 (WU)


Beautiful forecast there Pedley. I'd be envious but those temps here would be waay past our "have to run the ac" threshold. Lol.

Quoting txjac:


Sorry Baha ..attempted to plus your post and accidentally hit the minus ...


I gave you a plus to cover that..... lol
395. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


One More Day - 52.7 here (7:48) forecast 63 (WU)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Beautiful forecast there Pedley. I'd be envious but those temps here would be waay past our "have to run the ac" threshold. Lol.



I an Jealous of you both!

40°F and raining sigh
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Beautiful forecast there Pedley. I'd be envious but those temps here would be waay past our "have to run the ac" threshold. Lol.



I hear that. My water cooler is still on the fritz.
So I hope it isn't miserable. Have the AC but it costs too much.
397. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


I an Jealous of you both!

40°F and raining sigh


Rain coming our way too VR ...I am looking forward to it. Doing all the housework today and going to the bookstore to get a good book so tomorrow I can chill out and listen to it rain.
398. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


Rain coming our way too VR ...I am looking forward to it. Doing all the housework today and going to the bookstore to get a good book so tomorrow I can chill out and listen to it rain.


Yeah I know its a rare treat for you !

I would Fedex you mine if I could LOL

Heading out right now... but just to illustrate a point: it is 70 in Nassau, but 75 in Hollywood FL.... go figure!

Later, all...
Absolutely wonderful weather here... Mid 70's. When to my grandsons flag-football game this morning... We lost "Sigh" . Seas are 10 to 12' I heard. Not a good day to be on the water.

"I'm too sexy for my car, too sexy for my car".....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


It is Daylight Saving Time. There is no "S" at the end of Saving. Just to be proper.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wow... I have just lost a bunch of respect for wunderground.. and Jeff masters, I have been away for a while and now hes using the names the weather channel gives the storms... The NWS has been pretty spot on about not naming them and the Weather channel is now only in the business for Entertainment value... Just WOW.......
Quoting johnmc318:
Wow... I have just lost a bunch of respect for wunderground.. and Jeff masters, I have been away for a while and now hes using the names the weather channel gives the storms... The NWS has been pretty spot on about not naming them and the Weather channel is now only in the business for Entertainment value... Just WOW.......


There's the door, don't let it hit you on the way out.