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Space Weather storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:40 PM GMT on March 31, 2009

Twenty years ago this month, on March 13, 1989, I was aboard NOAA's P-3 weather research aircraft, bumping through a turbulent portion of a fierce winter storm in a remote ocean area between Greenland and Norway. We were searching for clues on how to make better weather forecasts for the regions of Norway and the northern British Isles battered by these great storms. Our 2-month project, based in Bødø, Norway, was called the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Research Experiment (CEAREX) . Today's flight took us through the heart of an extratropical storm developing at the edge of the sea ice that covered the ocean waters east of Greenland.

As I looked over at the white-capped, forbidding waters of the Greenland Sea, I reflected today's flight was not particularly dangerous by Hurricane Hunter standards, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds made the ride a bit rough at times. However, we were a long way from civilization. Should an emergency require us to ditch the aircraft in the ocean or the nearby remote island of Jan Mayen, we'd be tough to find unless we were able to radio back our position before going down. Far from any land areas, our communication life-line to the outside world was HF radio (ham radio), which relied on Earth's ionosphere to bounce signals off of. Three hours into the flight this life-line abruptly stopped working.


Figure 1. Sea ice swirls in ocean eddies off the coast of Labrador, Canada, in this photo I took during a 1989 CEAREX flight.

"Jeff, can you come up to the cockpit?" Aircraft Commander Dan Eilers' voice crackled over the intercom. I took a break from monitoring our weather instruments, took off my headset, and stepped forward into the cockpit of the P-3.

"What's up, Dan?" I asked.

"Well, HF radio reception crapped out about twenty minutes ago, and I want to climb to 25,000 feet and see if we can raise Reykjavik Air Traffic Control to report our position. We're flying at low altitude in hazardous conditions over 500 miles from the nearest airport, and it's not good that we're out of communication with the outside world. If we were to go down, search and rescue would have no idea where to look for us."

I agreed to work out an alteration to the flight plan with our scientists, so that we could continue to collect good data on the storm while we climbed higher. The scientists weren't too happy with the plan, since they were paying $20,000 for this flight, and wanted to stay low at 1,500 feet to better investigate the storm's structure. Regardless, we climbed as high as we could and orbited the storm, issuing repeated calls to the outside world over our HF radio. No one answered.

"I've never seen such a major interruption to HF radio!" Commander Eilers said, worriedly. "We can go back down to 1,500 feet and resume the mission, but I want to periodically climb to 25,000 feet and continue trying to establish communications. If we can't raise Air Traffic Control, we should consider aborting the mission".

I agreed to work with the scientists to accommodate this strategy. They argued hotly against a possible cancellation of this mission, which was collecting some unique data on a significant winter storm. So, for the next four hours, we periodically climbed to 25,000 feet, issuing futile calls over our HF radio. Finally, after an uncomfortable eight hours, it was time to go home to our base in Norway. As twilight sank into Arctic darkness, a spectacular auroral display--shimmering curtains of brilliant green light--lit up sky. It began to dawn on us that the loss of our HF radio reception was probably due to an unusual kind of severe weather--a "Space Weather" storm. An extremely intense geomagnetic storm was hitting the polar regions, triggering our brilliant auroral show and interrupting HF radio communications.

The geomagnetic "Superstorm" of March 13, 1989
As it turned out, the geomagnetic storm of March 13, 1989 was one of the most intense such "Space Weather" events in recorded history. The storm developed as a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun four days previously. The CME event blasted a portion of the Sun's plasma atmosphere into space. When the protons and electrons from the Sun arrived at the Earth, the planet's magnetic field guided the highly energetic particles into the upper atmosphere near the magnetic poles. As a result, the lower levels of the polar ionosphere become very ionized, with severe absorption of HF radio, resulting in my uncomfortable flight over the Greenland Sea with no communications. The geomagnetic storm didn't stop there--the storm's charged particles triggered a strong magnetic impulse that caused a voltage depression in five transmission lines in the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. Within 90 seconds, automatic voltage compensation equipment failed, resulting in a generation loss of 9,450 MW. With a load of about 21,350 MW, the system was unable to withstand the generation loss and collapsed. The entire province of Quebec--six million people--was blacked out for approximately nine hours. The geomagnetic storm also triggered the failure of a large step-up transformer at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey, as well as 200 other failures on the North American power system. Auroras were observed as far south as Florida, Texas, and Cuba during this geomagnetic "superstorm".


Figure 2. Red and green colors predominate in this view of the Aurora Australis (Southern Hemisphere aurora) photographed from the Space Shuttle in May 1991 at the peak of the geomagnetic maximum that also brought us the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm". The payload bay and tail of the Shuttle can be seen on the left hand side of the picture. Auroras are caused when high-energy electrons pour down from the Earth's magnetosphere and collide with atoms. Red aurora occurs from 200 km to as high as 500 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 6300 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. Green aurora occurs from about 100 km to 250 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 5577 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. The light is emitted when the atoms return to their original unexcited state. Image credit: NASA.

Solar Maximum is approaching
The sun waxes and wanes in brightness in a well-documented 11-year cycle, when sun spots and their associated Coronal Mass Ejections occur. We just passed through solar minimum--the sun is quiet, with no sun spots. We are headed towards a solar maximum, forecast to occur in 2012. Geomagnetic storms are at their peak during solar maximum, and we'll have to be on the lookout for severe "Space Weather" starting in 2010. I'll talk more about severe "Space Weather" storms in my next post, when I'll discuss the greatest Space Weather storm in recorded history--the famed "Carrington Event" of 1859--and what damages it might wreak were it to happen today. An extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 2008 says that a repeat of the Carrington Event could result in the most costly natural disaster of all time.

Resources
MetaTech Corporation's animation of the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm".
spaceweather.com
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That's really interesting to read. thanks for the update
Now this is interesting stuff. Thanks.
And there are folks out there that think weather is boring.
Ah, very nice blog Doc.

great post doc!
I remember seeing that in Florida.It was the first aurora I ever saw that far south(Port Charlotte area).The brightest I have seen was on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the early summer 1985.It was magnificent.Thank you Dr Masters.
Thanks, Dr. That is very interesting. Can't wait for the next post. I wonder if those "space storms" have any effect on our weather.
It's really pouring hard here.
Great post Doc. Im looking forward for more info about this.
S.I.D=Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance. As a "ham" I've often been on HF(High Frequencies"
and heard the bands just die--like they have been switched off...

BTW--anybody having trouble with WU today?
Quoting panamasteve:
S.I.D=Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance. As a "ham" I've often been on HF(High Frequencies"
and heard the bands just die--like they have been switched off...

BTW--anybody having trouble with WU today?


I am it seems to be going very slow
we got some much needed rain here
Sorry for posting thesame thing a few times since im having problems with WU on firefox.
I remember that storm. We saw the aurora in New Orleans...quite a sight indeed.

Incidentally, there's an absolutely fantastic website dedicated to space weather, aptly named www.spaceweather.com. Check it out!
Yup WU is definitely slow today!!!
Todays forecast has us as Sunny with a 30% chance of meteor showers and solar winds picking up to 383 km/sec with a density: 0.7 protons/cm3 by noon.

That is actually the current solar wind speed and density.

I cannot confirm or deny the chance of meteor showers.



Great Subject and relevent to our weather, depending upon your definition.

Great space weather short clip from NASA Link

And an expert lecturer on Forecasting space weather. The first 2 minutes are his qualifications and lead in from the host, skippable. Note -- over an hour but worth it. Link

For many this is foreign territoy, I am certain you will enjoy even more.



Sickening Solar Flares


January 27, 2005: NASA is returning to the Moon--not just robots, but people. In the decades ahead we can expect to see habitats, greenhouses and power stations up there. Astronauts will be out among the moondust and craters, exploring, prospecting, building.

Last week, though, there were no humans walking around on the Moon.

Good thing.





I wondering why severe thunderstorms are rare in S Fla?
Wundermap now working here.
Quoting panamasteve:
Wundermap now working here.


Now everything is working
I remember the solar storm of '89, I got to see some faint auroras here on St. Simons. Luckily I was on spring break, I doubt I could have seen them in Atlanta's city lights. Amazing that they can cause such problems for electricity transmission!

On another note, I found a web site where you can access for free every weather daily weather map made from 1871 to 2002. The maps and forecasts before major events like the Galveston 1900 hurricane, the 1899 cold wave, the New England hurricane of 1938 are interesting. I played with it a while last night.


Here is the site:

Link


Bad hurricane forecast. Bad!

Link
Some strong storms in the North east areas of Dade broward and palm beach. Especially palm beach.
Quoting Vortex95:
I wondering why severe thunderstorms are rare in S Fla?


???RARE???
22. bad link bad!
YES! Seabreaze is in full force today! Thunderstroms poping up along the Seabreeze! We get more rain!
South Florida rarely gets SEVERE thunderstorms usually they are just plain thundershowers. If anything they are small and don't affect to large of an area unlike those of the midwest.
26. The one in NE Palmbeach is stationary and going strong. I see purples in it.
Quoting Vortex95:
I wondering why severe thunderstorms are rare in S Fla?


The Florida peninsula experiences more thunderstorms per year than any other location in the United States.
Thursday, September 6, 1900, 8 AM:

The tropical storm is central this morning slightly north of Key West. It has increased somewhat in energy and is causing severe northeast gales over portions of southern Florida. It will probably continue slowly northward and its effects will be felt as far as the lower portion of the Middle Atlantic coast by Friday night. Hurricane warnings are displayed from Cedar Key to Savannah, and storm warnings from Charleston to Kitty Hawk.
The links work fine for me!
29. Severe thunderstorms!!!! not just a thunderstorm.
wow! over 4 inches of rain from the NE palm beach blob and signs point to it still to be going strong.
Well, there are tornado outbreaks in FL, and have been some really nasty ones at night with squall lines during winter El Nino seasons.

But, you don't get things like dry lines, and by late spring and summer strong jet streams that can be tapped to induce rotation and tornadoes are rare. Excepting the innumerable waterspouts, of course.
Quoting Vortex95:
26. The one in NE Palmbeach is stationary and going strong. I see purples in it.


Ya 4in an hr there and also 1in hail.
haha, that one cell that you are talking about. swear that I saw what looked like the makings of a vortex off of it. I am located in the Coconut Creek/Margate area, looking north.
35. hail eh? seen peasized hail fall where I live for 1 min I head the tapping nosie and went outside and for 1 min i see little balls falling to the ground. It all melted in 10 mins.
I don't understand what you mean by severe Vort95...if you mean systems that produce those monster tornadoes on the plains then yeah...but really, in a month or two there will be 'severe' thunderstorms almost daily in South Florida...enough to set your watch by.

whats the directionality of that cell, any chance those of us down here in broward will see anything from it?
Unless its just spinning it looks like its going south.
I see what you're talking about...looks dark to my North...stay safe if you're up there in Broward
38. when I find out how to phrase what I mean better i'll say it. you are right there are plenty of severe storms in S Fla but i'm trying to think of the proper way of what im trying to convey.
Some of the forecast notes are better:

Friday, September 17, 1926 8AM:

The tropical storm that passed near Turks Island Thursday afternoon is apparently central about 23 latitude North and 74 latitude West, and is moving rather rapidly west-northwestward attended by hurricane force winds near its center. This is a very severe storm.

Not too bad for a forecast written 22 hours before it hit Miami.
good that means we get a good chance of some rain. we need it down here
If a rash of scattered storms start to develop I hope they are not severe.
MP, always do. the one item i have to say, relative to the season we have coming. Now we get to see just how much better FPL's power grid is.
43. I can imagine what the mid 1800's forcasters said.

Theres a huge seamonster in the ocean heading east north east. LOL

This would work better if it were 1500's



RADIATION PLAN FOR THE APOLLO LUNAR MISSION Jerry L. Modisette, Manuel D. Lopez, and Joseph W. Snyder Space Physics Division NASA Manned Spacecraft Center Abstract

The radiation protection plan for the Apollo Pro-
gram is based on real-time monitoring of solar ac-
tivity and radiation in the spacecraft to provide
data on which to base estimates of the radiation to
be expected. The major radiation hazard is from so-
lar flare particle events, which are unlikely to
occur during any given mission. The monitoring sys-
tem, consisting of onboard dosimeters and the Solar
Particle Alert Network, provides early warning
through observation of solar flares and the associ-
ated radio bursts and a continual updating of the
radiation picture as particles arrive at the space-
craft. Prediction criteria have been developed
which are progressively revised as more data are
received, with a corresponding reduction in the
error limits on the prediction of radiation dose.


46. At least in my area im not too confident. Over 60 mph winds with gusts should still knock the transformer out if it lasts long enough.
FPL's grid will be put to the test once again...only had 2 brownouts last week and 1 5-minute blackout 2 nights ago...

Well there is a tornado in the Palm beach blob. F0-F1 would be a sure bet.
And another bad, bad forecast:

September 2, 1935 8 AM:

The tropical disturbance is central about 200 miles east of Havana, Cuba and accompanied by shifting gales and probably winds of hurricane force near its center. Caution advised vessels in Florida straits next 24 to 36 hours.


Oops.
"memories..Like da corner's of my Mind.."
Very impressive story Jeff. I've been aware of the interference of Solar Flares on Ham Radio and HF communications since my High School days when I was first introduced to Ham Radio Communications. It was very interesting many times to listen to the Electromagnetic Storms over the Ham Radio Frequencies. Only over the recent years have I begun to understand that these solar flares could do much more than interfere with radio. I remember the black outs caused by the storms in Canada and along the East Coast of the USA. I think that was a major wake up call for many of us, because we simply didn't know that these storms could be so powerful and disruptive. Now we know that they can generate EMI as well as RFI that can disrupted satellites and power grids.

The dates you mention of 2012 are a little disconcerting though when combined with other recent discoveries. You may have seen documentaries on the History Channel and Discovery Channel about a number of sources and documents to point to the year 2012 as though some catastrophic even was going to happen. I try not to put too much stock in such stories, but when you mention that 2012 is the next Solar Max, it makes me wonder if someone knew something about just how bad the solar storms would be. It has been a concern of a number of experts that a solar storm could be severe enough to knock out all of our communications and power grids permanently. Though the chances of that would seem to be pretty remote, now I'm starting to wonder after reading your report.
That forecast was issued 13 hours before the strongest hurricane landfall recorded in the USA made landfall in the Keys.
This episode talks about the research being conducted on the Sun through the Hinode Satellite. Astronomy. NASA.



Permanently? I would think a severe solar storm could cause a lot of problems, but surely repairs could and would be made.
The Ultimate Doomsday Event comes from a Star,..but not ours.

Scientists believe gamma ray bursts were responsible for a mass extinction 450 million years ago. The gamma rays strip away the ozone layer and generate chemical smog, producing a widespread chill that grips the Earth. An expected electromagnetic pulse will zap all of our electronics. How will our modern cities hold up in the face of a previous global catastrophe?

Fortunately there are no supernova candidates close enough to cause damage with a gamma ray burst. Betelgeuse and Eta Carinae have their rotational axes aimed the wrong way if they blow.
Hmmm.
Distance from a GRB dosent matter..its the aim point that is critical.
It's very disturbing to know how many different types of apocalyptic events are possible. How many are possible that we don't know about?
Actually, distance is important. Eta Carinae is 8,000 light years away. Even if it was aimed at us, a GRB would not be very serious, although astronauts in the space station would probably be killed or made very sick. As it is, gamma rays when they encounter iterstellar dust and gas can be absorbed and then re-radiated--but usually as infrared rays. Eta Carinae is the biggest source of IR in the sky second to the sun and moon---more than is received from the other planets, or stars like Sirius or Alpha Centauri. But since it's rotational axis is not pointing towards us, we won't get a GRB from Eta Carinae anyway.
WHAT ABOUT THE SUPER VOLCANO OR A HYPERCANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well aware of the Eta Carinae axis positon. But a probable GRB event happened here on Earth 450 million years ago.



Were well prepared here though.




Quoting Vortex95:
WHAT ABOUT THE SUPER VOLCANO OR A HYPERCANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Or deadly pandemic disease, or asteroid hitting Earth. Can anyone think of any others?
that storm developed over northern broward and moved on without giving us any rain.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Permanently? I would think a severe solar storm could cause a lot of problems, but surely repairs could and would be made.


Permanently as in the equipment is burned out by over currents caused by over voltage spikes. Anyone with any significant experience with electricity/electronics is very familiar with the effect. It actually happens quite often. How ever we have never seen it happen on a nation wide or world wide basis. If the entire national power grid was burned out, it could be repaired or replaced, but it would take many months to do so. The result is that we would be sent back into the dark ages, so to speak until the repairs/replacements could be made. The huge power transformers that connect our power grid and step the voltages up or down as needed are custom made and take many months to build. Of course we have extensive systems in place to deal with power outages on a smaller scale. Power can be rerouted around systems that are burned out and there are systems in place to deal with the voltage surges. But there is a limit to what they can handle. We have only become aware over the past 10 to 15 years that it is possible to knock out all of the systems at once. It would take a great deal of energy from space to do this, but it is possible. Whether is will happen is anybodies guess, but I for one do not believe is coincidence. Even though I do not put a lot of stock in what some people say about the future, I also do not ignore them. It just struck me as odd that this year 2012 keeps coming up over and over from many sources and now a scientific source is pointing to that same year. Clearly having all of our technology knocked out would not be the end of the world, but it would cause significant problems which would lead to others. Much like most of us are now aware that could come about because of a nuclear war. I don't think anybody ever considered the possibility of a natural cause in our near future causing such significant problems. What is interesting is that someone did consider this possibility as there was a documentary on the weather channel I believe dealing with this very same possibility.
Or a black hole hitting the earth. Or a brown dwarf entering the solar system and ejecting the planets into interstellar space. Or antimatter hitting the earth. Or space aliens with their novabombs ;)
Quoting natrwalkn:

Or deadly pandemic disease, or asteroid hitting Earth. Can anyone think of any others?


Running out of beer
72,73 LOL!! Running out of beer? NOW THAT'S SCARY!! :D
Well another 2012 possibility is another El Nino 15 years after the 1997-98 El Nino which was 15 years after the 1982-83 El Nino. Something like that, which raises the temperature of the earth another 0.5-1 C could be the real start of severe global warming and ice melt, which we have seen some of since temperatures stabilized at a new higher plateau after the 97-98 El Nino.

As for a solar storm I see no evidence that the 2012 max is more likely to cause massive solar storms than the previous peaks in the cycle. Perhaps it will. But I doubt it.
Most of these ideas about how the world could end are just theories with not real data to back up even the possibility of such things happening. The ones that we do have solid evidence on are objects striking the earth and solar flares. These are not theories, but very real and we are only becoming aware of the possibilities.

Whether any of these things will happen in any of our life times is only conjecture, but we do know that they have happened before and can happen again.
Bar- erm I mean George W. Bush.
Palm beach blob is become the palm beach line.
NE dade be prepared for a mildy strong thunderstorm expect gusts up to 50 and of course stay inside unless u really need to go somewhere.


... Strong thunderstorm moving across northern Miami-Dade County...

At 417 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Pennsuco... moving east at 5 mph.

This storm will affect...

Pennsuco...

And surrounding communities.

Frequent lightning... gusty winds to 50 mph... pea-sized hail...
torrential downpours... or a combination of these are possible.
Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees
and open shelters offer no protection. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph can
down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured small
objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

Also... this storm is developing in an environment favorable for
tornadoes.

Residents near the path of this storm should remain on the alert for
additional statements and possible warnings.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well another 2012 possibility is another El Nino 15 years after the 1997-98 El Nino which was 15 years after the 1982-83 El Nino. Something like that, which raises the temperature of the earth another 0.5-1 C could be the real start of severe global warming and ice melt, which we have seen some of since temperatures stabilized at a new higher plateau after the 97-98 El Nino.

As for a solar storm I see no evidence that the 2012 max is more likely to cause massive solar storms than the previous peaks in the cycle. Perhaps it will. But I doubt it.


Like I said, I'm not saying that it will or that it wont. I just find it interesting that there is a solar maximum scheduled to occur in 2012 or there about and that many sources from the past have indicated something catastrophic may happen in the year 2012. I know that there are those who are trying to say that it would be the end of the world. I kind of doubt that, but we already have experienced some nasty events like the El Nino's and Solar Flares in recent history. The only question is how bad can they get and are more on the way?
Well these storms should persist until 8:00 pm in S Fla when day time heating exits but you never know.
Quoting Vortex95:
WHAT ABOUT THE SUPER VOLCANO OR A HYPERCANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I don't put an stock in the hypercane theories, but the super volcano is not a theory. It is a documented fact though they haven't had any eruptions in a long while. I know that there are folks keeping a close eye on Yellowstone now that they know that it is a super volcano (also a very recent discovery).
A nice looking outbreak of storms have occured across the spine of florida.
Oh and if anyone is interested, that major snow storm that we were supposes to get in Minnesota seems to have taking a turn towards the North again. They just don't seem to like us here in the Twin Cities much.
anyone have a graphic showing how badly the drought is here in florida. as well as what the lake is sitting at.

Speaking of power grid, just got two minor surges here. make that three.
85. Live in palm beach? The NE dade blob passed to the SW of me.
Quoting natrwalkn:
It's very disturbing to know how many different types of apocalyptic events are possible. How many are possible that we don't know about?


Depends what you define by 'apocalyptic'.

There are many in terms of disrupting or shattering civilisation - from the caldera (or supervolcano) explosion to a gamma ray burst caused by either a supernova explosion or the fusion of two neutron stars. There's the study of 'eschatology' (the study of the last) which goes into all these theories including those of a biblical origin.

As far as a hypercane goes - seems pretty logical. The hotter the water, the more chance of a stronger 'cane coming your way.

If you mean apocalyptic in terms of saying 'Bye bye Earth', then there are very few. Only ones I can think of is a rogue star or large enough comet/meteor to collide and vaporise the planet *or* when the Sun goes into a Red Giant and swallows us up. There are probably others - but it gets more fanciful.

As far as 2012 goes - I have a bad feeling about that year's hurricane season. It's the naming list that's got the fewest retirees - and nature seems to want each one to catch up. Which one was the least before? List III - before 1999 and 2005 paid to that.(And nothing to do with those Mayans, either!)
The storm is moveing SE atm lol right when they issued it heading East, it went SE wonder if it goes NE in a few mins xD.
here plywood Link
Vortex: N. Lauderdale is where I am
Quoting hahaguy:


Running out of beer


Oh yeah. That's a state of emergency right there.

I think another one is if the CBA in the NFL doesn't get re-signed...

But speaking of rarities that do happen, here:
Link
Link
Link

A lot of things meteorological have some form of cycle, even if not well understood. Very much a reach, but think Feb/Mar/Apr storms come up every 50 years?


"Reading this book is like getting punched in the face by Carl Sagan. Frightening, but oddly exhilarating."
-- Daniel H. Wilson, author of How to Survive a Robot Uprising
someone thought it to be a good idea to put a Flood warning over the NE Palm beach Blob. All these storms seem to be firing up and moving east from the Lake.
Hope Ike is ok out there in Defuniak in North Florida...Tornado warnings starting to pop up a plenty in the Florida Panhandle and Southern AL/GA Border areas right now..............
I'm in Deland, fl...thunder all around, however no rain...wall cloud to the nw heading this way...looks ominous
another blob in West Broward heading ESE should be interesting.
The solar system bounces up and down through the solar plane. We will reach the apex of this hyperbolic oscillation in 2012. Space is 99.99999......% nothing. However, that most of the .000.....1% of stuff is in the same plane, makes the odds significantly less for us to get hit with the laser pointer of a gamma ray beam. It could, however, hit the sun, which is a much larger target, with unpleasant results, or superheat a few space rocks and change their trajectory. The #1 threat is the sun, #2 would be something volcanic (multiple simultaneous geologic events), #3 would be a space rock. Gamma Rays are way down the list.

The Galactic core contains a huge black hole 35,000 light years away from the Earth.
If a star fell into this black hole 34,996 and 9 months ago the light from the Gamma Ray Burst would get to our planet on December 21, 2012. It would be a done deal that a disaster would take place. The Galactic alignment of the Earth with the plane of the galaxy would be a necessity since a star that was going to fall in the central galatic black hole would be on the galatic plane and emit a Gamma Ray Burst along that plane in alignment with the Earth.
Nasty cell heading right for my hometown.

TORNADO WARNING
GAC071-205-312215-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0049.090331T2127Z-090331T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
COLQUITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOULTRIE...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PELHAM...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR PELHAM...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MOULTRIE BY 545 PM EDT...
7 MILES SOUTH OF NORMAN PARK BY 555 PM EDT...

ACCORDING TO SPOTTERS ON THE GROUND NEAR THIS STORM...SEVERAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS THE STORM CROSSED GEORGIA STATE ROAD
300.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
Where is the blog stretching graphic police when you need them :)
Quoting Vortex95:
A nice looking outbreak of storms have occured across the spine of florida.


first popups of the year
Hot and Humid in Bradenton with some apparent convection to the east today, but nothing on the radar that close, but sweat.
100. Yup but their pretty strong. Good thing we need not deal with that the western panhandle is going through.
Quoting Tejano72:
The solar system bounces up and down through the solar place. We will reach the apex of this hyperbolic oscillation in 2012. Space is 99.99999......% nothing. However, that most of the .000.....1% of stuff is in the same plane, makes the odds significantly less for us to get hit with the laser pointer of a gamma ray beam. If could, however, hit the sun, which is a much larger target, with unpleasant results, or superheat a few space rocks and change their trajectory. The #1 threat is the sun, #2 would be something volcanic (multiple simultaneous geologic evenents), #3 would be a space rock. Gamma Rays are way down the list.

The Galactic core contains a huge black hole 35,000 light years away from the Earth.
If a star fell into this black hole 34,996 and 9 months ago the light from the Gamma Ray Burst would get to our planet on December 21, 2012. It would be a done deal that a disaster would take place. The Galatic alignment of the Earth with the plane of the galaxy would be a necessity since a star that was going to fall in the central galatic black hole would be on the galatic plane and emit a Gamma Ray Burst along that plane in alignment with the Earth.
That is an interesting post T-72.What happens if a near by star goes supernova?
good! it looks like things are claming down for today.
Mabe the Myans know something about 2012 in that calendar...

The solar system bounces up and down through the solar place. We will reach the apex of this hyperbolic oscillation in 2012. Space is 99.99999......% nothing. However, that most of the .000.....1% of stuff is in the same plane, makes the odds significantly less for us to get hit with the laser pointer of a gamma ray beam. If could, however, hit the sun, which is a much larger target, with unpleasant results, or superheat a few space rocks and change their trajectory. The #1 threat is the sun, #2 would be something volcanic (multiple simultaneous geologic evenents), #3 would be a space rock. Gamma Rays are way down the list.

The Galactic core contains a huge black hole 35,000 light years away from the Earth.
If a star fell into this black hole 34,996 and 9 months ago the light from the Gamma Ray Burst would get to our planet on December 21, 2012. It would be a done deal that a disaster would take place. The Galatic alignment of the Earth with the plane of the galaxy would be a necessity since a star that was going to fall in the central galatic black hole would be on the galatic plane and emit a Gamma Ray Burst along that plane in alignment with the Earth.
103 - 105,, At least you wouldn't feel it. I think the % referenced would be more applicable to our actual knowledge of Space and Time. Here is some additional speculation for you. It is estimated that based upon the current known Universe there should be 40,000 planets with life on them at any given time. I could never understand that for the universe is infinite, and even if you think it is finite, what would be beyond the edge ah?

Very nice Patrap


He is revered as the chief engineer who guided the Mayan mission of inscripting stone monuments with precise astronomical and astrological information during his reign in the 10th Baktun (435-830 AD).

Known as a magician of time, he understood mathematics, or numbers, as a type of language that transcends the subjectivity of human verbal experience. His sentiment "All is number. *God is a number. God is in All." is an intriguing way to catalogue the Maya's message that we are intimately linked with and informed by the Galaxy. All of life is ordered by the same basic, re-occurring patterns.
*In the Yucatec Mayan language, the word "Hunab Ku" means Source
- The One, Giver of Movement and Measure, the galactic core, "God".

Pacal Votan's prophecy speaks of the Closing of this World Age Cycle on December 21, 2012 AD. As this date approaches, we are collectively in a transition phase of the old world dying and a new world being born.
"All is number

You sure this guy does not work at Bank of America. They told me that I was just a number.
If the Universe has been in existence for 14.3 billion years(give or take a few years)I wonder how long it will be here from this point on.Whatever has been preconceived to happen on 12/21/12 I am sure there will humans here to record its effect on the good earth.
Oh lord what's this mayan mysticism doing all over a space weather blog?

Looks good for me to get bunches of rain!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh lord what's this mayan mysticism doing all over a space weather blog?

Looks good for me to get bunches of rain!


You just never know what the subject is going to be on this blog
Sorry about the typos. Anyway, it won't be Eta, Aplha, Beta or Sirius. It will be either something that already happened and will hit us through luck and space laser-plinko (SPACE WEATHER is not space mysticism, y'all), or likely WR 104 in Sagittarius. We are within a decade of implosion on a tightly wound binary that was assumed to be a small spiral galaxy until 3/4/08, when someone had an "oh sh--" moment at the observatory in Australia, and realized that we were looking top down on an impending binary implosion. That means looknig right down the rifle of the gun. Here's the problem: When the solar system is at the peak of its hyperbolic orbital wobble, we are exposed because there is nothing between us and it. So the odds are roughly 1 in 12. I wouldn't play Russian roulette with 1 to 12 odds.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh lord what's this mayan mysticism doing all over a space weather blog?

Looks good for me to get bunches of rain!


If the line that just went through here (Brooks/Thomas county line) holds together, you will get bunches of rain. I got 1.2 inches in the rain gauge in about 30 minutes. It's hitting Quitman GA about now.
Wow first time I've seen lightening and heard thunder in a long time lol
DEC21
1111GMT OR 611 AM EST
2012
Quoting hahaguy:
Wow first time I've seen lightening and heard thunder in a long time lol
don't worry you going to see a lot more yet over the next 6 to 10 days
108. I actually have a version of the Hunab Ku inked on my back. When I was a high school student I read The Mayan Factor: The Path Beyond Technology. I was way into that stuff back then.

The premise of the book was that the Mayans discovered a galactic energy beam/wave that reaches its peak in 2012. If we were to align our minds we could creat a collective consciousness and in turn be able to tap into the power. This would allow us to no longer have to rely on technology as we know it. When the new beginning came we would collectively be seeded to a new galaxy collectively as the energy went on its way.

If we didn't align ourselves with it, the Earth would begin to rumble as the date approached. Apparently, the end result would be the Earth's complete destruction as it broke up into a new asteroid belt.

That phase didn't last long though. Especially when I found out about the cult like following the author maintained.....Creepy.... The tatoo still has the meaning of everything being interconnected and I am still very glad to have it.
Quoting Tejano72:
Sorry about the typos. Anyway, it won't be Eta, Aplha, Beta or Sirius. It will be either something that already happened and will hit us through luck and space laser-plinko (SPACE WEATHER is not space mysticism, y'all), or likely WR 104 in Sagittarius. We are within a decade of implosion on a tightly wound binary that was assumed to be a small spiral galaxy until 3/4/08, when someone had an "oh sh--" moment at the observatory in Australia, and realized that we were looking top down on an impending binary implosion. That means looknig right down the rifle of the gun. Here's the problem: When the solar system is at the peak of its hyperbolic orbital wobble, we are exposed because there is nothing between us and it. So the odds are roughly 1 in 12. I wouldn't play Russian roulette with 1 to 12 odds.



I would really like to learn more. Please send me some links to the data so we can check it out. Thanks E
Nice round of storms about to settle in here in Pensacola. My two year old just came in and yelled at me "STOP BLOGGING!!!!!"

Good night and stay safe. Looks like the worst weather is east of us.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy
What's it looking like in your neck of the woods about now?
Throughout the day at the campus, I had been monitoring the weather situation across Florida. The main reason was due to the fact that all the forecast soundings from this morning indicated favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development. Was really surprised by the several tornado warnings that were issued across the state and into Georgia as I had not anticipated the atmosphere to destabilize as rapidly as it did. Based upon the early reports I received, it seemed to me that the tornadoes that did form produced minimal damage, which is good news.

What we all saw today occuring this afternoon across Florida is the transition that is starting to take affect in weather patterns. With the seabreeze activity, it indicates to me that we are exiting the grasp of the dry, continental airmass that had dominated the state for the past several months, and entering into the push towards our rainy season. It will likely still take several more weeks to get into rainy season, but if the impressive seabreeze thunderstorm action this afternoon was any indication, it seems that the worst of this terrible drought across the state may be over and relief is on the horizon.
Anyone hear about the wicked weather here in So. Fla.? :) So is this trend of sea breeze storms on the east coast supposed to continue?
Severe Weather in the Southeast:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Anyone hear about the wicked weather here in So. Fla.? :) So is this trend of sea breeze storms on the east coast supposed to continue?


it looks more wicked in north Florida
Quoting Drakoen:
Severe Weather in the Southeast:


Actually quite impressive. Didn't figure the weather situation across Florida would have been this active this afternoon. Knew that based upon the forecast soundings that thunderstorms would develop around the state, but didn't expect them to become severe since the soundings didn't indicate such would occur this morning. Guess I forgot what happens when you add bigtime daytime heating into the equation since its been such a long time since we've seen seabreeze thunderstorms pop statewide.
This is what Cyclone Jasper gave to surfers of SE Qld/northern NSW last week












Cheers AussieStorm
Beaches shut as rain causes chaos

Article from: The Daily Telegraph


By Lauren Williams and agencies

April 01, 2009 10:55am

THOUSANDS of homes have been blacked out, beaches are closed, there's traffic chaos on wet roads, flash flooding in city suburbs, more than 80 Sydney people requesting emergency help, reports of trees down and northern NSW remains very wet as heavy rain continues to fall in NSW.
Waves up to five metres high are hammering the coast of Sydney and surrounding areas, while heavy rain has brought down trees and damaged homes.

Dangerous surf forced the closure of all Sydney beaches today, except for Bondi, with destructive waves expected to continue until tomorrow. Strong winds have also brought down trees in Sydney's suburbs.

Power outages in Glebe, Chippendale and Camperdown blacked out more than 3000 homes and businesses this morning while more than 1000 people have become victims of the flooding sweeping the mid-north coast of NSW.

.An EnergyAustralia spokesman said the homes and businesses lost power for about 90 minutes as families woke to prepare for work and school after an electrical fault being blamed on the rain. Almost 85mm of rain has fallen over the Sydney basin in the past 24 hours.

As thousands of commuters faced road nightmares trying to get to work today, the Weather Bureau reported Turramurra had the highest rainfall in Sydney overnight with 77mm falling in since 9am yesterday. Up to 55m of rain fell in the Royal National Park just south of Sydney, and parts of Cronulla received 46mm.

Dramatic falls right across the NSW mid-north coast peaked at Girralong, where 538 mm was recorded in the last 24 hours. Bellingen received nearly 400mm, while the Dorrigo area recorded 266mm.

Dorrigo had falls of 270 mm since 9am yesterday while Coff Harbour registered 450mm. The Bellinger River peaked at 8.6 metres last night, stranding about 1600 nearby residents.

The Bellinger River has begun to fall from its peak, which was equal to 1986 levels, but residents in Bellingen, Darkwood, Thora and Kalang will remain isolated for up to four days.

On the far North Coast, 170mm of rain fell over Ballina, while Alstonville had 129mm.

Further south Yamba recorded 146mm in the 24 hours to 7am and Evans Head received 133mm.

In Sydney, flooding caused traffic delays at Victoria Rd, approaching The Crescent, in Rozelle, near the Anzac Bridge while traffic lights are blacked out and emergency crews are responding to multiple calls for fallen power lines.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has responded to 80 calls for assistance in Sydney since yesterday afternoon, with up to 150 volunteers in action.

"Most are from the city's northern suburbs and most of those have been for leaky roofs and branches down," SES spokesman Dave Webber said.

The Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) has also reported slow traffic around Sydney due to flooding on roads in Collaroy and Artarmon in the north and Alexandria in the inner south.

The NSW Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning across the state, with fears continued heavy rainfall across the Hunter, Sydney Metropolitan and parts of the Mid North Coast districts expected to cause more flash flooding.

Damaging surf conditions and waves of more than five metres has also led to the bureau predicting significant beach erosion on the mid-north Coast, Hunter and Sydney coasts between Smoky Cape and Port Hacking today.

Gale warnings have been issued along the mid north coast today, with winds averaging over 60 km/h at times and gusts exceed 90 km/hr.

Related coverage: NSW floods strand thousands of people

Gallery: How the big wet has caused chaos in NSW

Sydney blackout furore: Nathan Rees orders emergency review

Flood waters have eased across the state, but hundreds of people evacuated across the state's mid-north coast remain stranded.

The Pacific Highway through Coffs Harbour was opened in both directions early this morning after being closed overnight, but remains closed north of Urunga.

An Emergency Operations Centre has been established at a resort in Coffs Harbour containing personnel from the Police, SES, local council and Country Energy.

Dorrigo, Bellingen and Coffs Harbour Hospitals have all been isolated by the flood waters but they have not been evacuated.

Evacuation centres established at the Coffs Harbour RSL in Vernon Street and the Bonville Golf Club in North Bonville Road have allowed people to leave overnight but remain open for people to attend.

Sixty people who took refuge at the Coffs Ex-services Club overnight are still stranded.

Coffs Creek peaked at 5.14m at 6:15pm yesterday, which is just below the 1996 level of 5.43m, when floods resulted in the death of one person.

About 100 Coffs Harbour residential properties and businesses have been affected, with 420 people evacuated from surrounding areas, including 300 school children and aged care residents.

At the Coffs ex-services club duty Manager, Paul Cunningham said around 40 people were still sheltering at the club this morning.

"It's all been pretty positive, but people are pretty distressed," he said.

"They don't know what's happened to their houses, their belongings,"

Mr Cunningham said while rain had eased overnight, the community were bracing themselves for another 80 milimetres today.

"The way Coff is designed, it just continues to flood," he said.

Parents have been allowed to pick up their children from The Bishop Druitt College in North Boambee Road and the Christian Community School in Curacoa Street at Coffs Harbour after they were cut-off and isolated by the flood waters with a large number of students still at the schools.

Newrey Island is flooded. 60 homes were evacuated; however, no further people have been evacuated due to the area being unsafe for SES and RFS emergency vehicles and staff.

People who haven't been evacuated are safe.

Water levels around Urunga are steady. Ninety people were evacuated to the Urunga Golf Club.

There were similar water levels at Bellingen Keys where 80 homes were evacuated.

The evacuation centre at Urunga Golf Club has about 250 displaced people with the Department of Community Services in attendance.

A public information inquiry centre has been opened to take calls from members of the public about the flood affected areas on the North Coast.

Police and SES are urging all residents to remain in their homes at this stage and to continually monitor the situation.

Families are told to be prepared to evacuate if necessary and allow plenty of time to do so.

Members of the public are informed that they can contact the information inquiry centre on 1800 227 228.

The community is also advised to pack only what is necessary, think about where they will go and to listen to updates through the media.

The police have advised motorists not to attempt to drive through flood waters due to hidden dangers and debris while residents are told not to swim in swollen rivers and creeks.

Members of the community are also advised they can contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency flood and storm assistance.

For all other emergencies, the public are advised to contact Triple 000.

NSW Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan is on his way to the area to determine if disaster relief is necessary.

"I'm travelling to Coffs Harbour this morning just to see what the damage is and see whether or not a natural disaster declaration is needed for the area," Mr Whan told Macquarie Radio today.

The SES has responded to more than 760 requests for assistance and performed about 60 rescues of people trapped in flood waters.

The SES estimates some rural properties could remain cut off for the next four days.

"But again a lot of these areas are used to these flooding situations and are quite well prepared," spokesman David Webber said.
Dr. Masters has a particular skill for writing in this science adventure frame when talking about his past field meteorologist roles.

His essay reminds of a a book I once read as a child called "There's Adventure in Meteorology"

Hope the rain continues...but don't need the severe weather..
did you all here about the Play Station 2
There is more to propagation than CMEs and the aurora.

Sporadic Ecan be caused by the ionized trails left by meteors as they burn up. Sporadic E is useful as low as 10 meters or just above Citizens Band frequencies. From 2 meters and up Sporadic E and tropo-ducting are two common modes of propagation beyond line of sight. There are more as this map shows.

I am set up to communicate on 2 meters across a 200 mile distance during the summer using tropo-ducting. This occurs when different layers of air create a kind of waveguide that keeps normally line of sight radio waves hugging the curvature of the earth.

Every Ham knows that HF propagation changes at night for the better. There are seasonal changes too, when for instance 160 meters gets hot. Hams have mapped out the portion of the atmosphere above the troposphere so that they know when and where to point their antennas to reach around the globe.

Here is a weather station you probably haven't seen. Solar Wind
Quoting Tazmanian:
did you all here about the Play Station 2


Yeah...dropped them to $99!!
Aussiestorm --Oh my gosh -- Oh my goodness -- those waves are soooooo beautiful --- way out of my league -- but I can still appreciate what they are -- divine -- totally divine.
i knew you would like those pics surfmom!!!!


The Gulf of Mexico after this past cold front. No comparison to Aussie's waves... but I had a great time : )
Quoting hydrus:
If the Universe has been in existence for 14.3 billion years(give or take a few years)I wonder how long it will be here from this point on.Whatever has been preconceived to happen on 12/21/12 I am sure there will humans here to record its effect on the good earth.


Yep, some snowfall in the North.
Rainhole. Can't believe this! We NEED rain!



Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep, some snowfall in the North.
LOL- yes, and the attack of the abominable mayan snow man.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Some of the forecast notes are better:

Friday, September 17, 1926 8AM:

The tropical storm that passed near Turks Island Thursday afternoon is apparently central about 23 latitude North and 74 latitude West, and is moving rather rapidly west-northwestward attended by hurricane force winds near its center. This is a very severe storm.

Not too bad for a forecast written 22 hours before it hit Miami.
They seemed to have a fairly good idea this storm was coming, but I don't think they expected it to be QUITE as bad as it turned out to be. IIRC, the storm apparently deepened quite precipitously as it approached and crossed the Gulf Stream.

Interesting stuff.
Quoting surfmom:


The Gulf of Mexico after this past cold front. No comparison to Aussie's waves... but I had a great time : )


I don't see any surfers? 5'ers and nobody on them? I hope they were just tired. :) Wish I could have been there.
Thanks Baha! The forecast for the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane was pretty much spot on.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F
9:00 AM FST April 1 2009
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1001 hPa) located at 17.0S 176.5E is reported as moving north-northeast slowly. Position FAIR based on latest multispectral visible with animation and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.

Tropical Depression 14F is weak at this stage with the low level circulation center exposed, deep convection is detached to the east and drier air located to the south. 14F is embedded in a monsoonal trough while an active covergence zone lies to the north. A strong southeast surge is developing to the south. System lies under moderate amount of shear. Global models are keen to develop a series of lows along the monsoonal trough over the next few days (with 14F being one of these lows). These lows are likely to move fairly rapidly to the southeast in response to a good northwest steering flow. Strong to Gale Force winds are expected to develop south of these lows as a strong high pressure system near New Zealand extends a developing ridge of pressure into the tropics. At this stage, there is a low chance for any of these lows to reach tropical cyclone status.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

126. Yep and I hope it stays that way Drak :)
139. God hath cursed your land :D rofl.
You all need to see the blowed up pic of Redoubt on my Web site......

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/volcanoearthquaketsunami.htm
On the world disaster in 2012 topic:

I don't think a world disaster is likely on the basis of any ONE of the events people have named. However, 2012 would be a very bad year if we got SEVERAL of these events at once: a highly active hurricane season in two or three of the more heavily populated basins; a large solar event that knocks out power grids in numerous major N hemisphere cities; a major volcanic eruption that throws large amounts of ash / gasses into the air and / or triggered serious earthquakes / tsunami.

It would then be a "very bad year". . . . globally speaking. . .
Quoting TampaSpin:
You all need to see the blowed up pic of Redoubt on my Web site......

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/volcanoearthquaketsunami.htm
good pic tampa,I am glad there are not any of those were I live.
TampaSpin you have a great site!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Throughout the day at the campus, I had been monitoring the weather situation across Florida. The main reason was due to the fact that all the forecast soundings from this morning indicated favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development. Was really surprised by the several tornado warnings that were issued across the state and into Georgia as I had not anticipated the atmosphere to destabilize as rapidly as it did. Based upon the early reports I received, it seemed to me that the tornadoes that did form produced minimal damage, which is good news.

What we all saw today occuring this afternoon across Florida is the transition that is starting to take affect in weather patterns. With the seabreeze activity, it indicates to me that we are exiting the grasp of the dry, continental airmass that had dominated the state for the past several months, and entering into the push towards our rainy season. It will likely still take several more weeks to get into rainy season, but if the impressive seabreeze thunderstorm action this afternoon was any indication, it seems that the worst of this terrible drought across the state may be over and relief is on the horizon.



The stationary front looked to be the main cause of the instabilty over most of the central and southern penninsula.IMO,not sea breeze storms,its a bit early still for those!!!maybe the middle of may....
Rain is finally falling. YAY!
I wish that stuff would slide down a little more into west central florida. With the new water restritions they just announced you can only turn on your sprinklers between midnight and 4 am. but our pump to pull the water out of the lake is about thirty years old and we can't leave it on unattended.

Ya know it wouldn't be so bad if the HOAs would allow less lawn and more "florida friendly" planting. Dispite the current drougt our HOA is still sending out violation letters telling homeowners to resod. CRAZY..
Baha: Agreed.

120. Ossgss: There is a terrific book, which puts atstrophysics, including very recent discoveries - of which there have been many (so anything more than about 2 years old is about as dated as a Commodore 64 - astrophysically speaking). The title is "Death from the Skies". Its a catchy title, but reading it, for about $20, is pretty much the equivalent of taking an undergraduate course in astrophysics on the topic of "bad things that could happen" and the science and references are excellent. Australia and Hawaii have cutting edge astrophysics labs, much like FSU has there Hurricane CSI lab [home of Zie Zuper Ensemble - which sounds suspiciously like something a Bond villain would want to steal and secretly run from his hollowed out volcano], simply because that's where there is a great view away from city lights. They've got some noteworthy blogs and graduate research.
154. Tejano72 11:35 PM EDT on March 31, 2009

Long time no see......how you been
Quoting stillwaiting:



The stationary front looked to be the main cause of the instabilty over most of the central and southern penninsula.IMO,not sea breeze storms,its a bit early still for those!!!maybe the middle of may....


The thunderstorms today were the result of mesoscale convergence.
GRAPHIC 50
River Flooding Map
Quoting Drakoen:


The thunderstorms today were the result of mesoscale convergence.


I thought it was because of very high clouds...LOL...just kidding...
Well we did get 1.52" of rain by midnight. So the rain hole was filled! And more is falling, yay, and double yay!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well we did get 1.52" of rain by midnight. So the rain hole was filled! And more is falling, yay, and double yay!


More rain coming it appears.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F
18:00 PM FST April 1 2009
=================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPa) located at 17.0S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving north-northeast. Position POOR based on latest multispectral infrared with animation and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.

TD 14F is weak at this stage with the low level circulation center exposed, deep convection is detached to the east and drier air located to the south. 14F is embedded in a monsoonal trough while an active convergence zone lies to the north. A strong southeast surge is developing to the south. System lies under moderate amount of shear. Global models are keen to developing a series of lows along the monsoonal trough over the next few days (14F being one of these lows). These lows are likely to move fairly rapidly to the southeast in response to a good northwest steering flow. Strong to gale force winds are expected to develop south of these lows as a strong high pressure system near New Zealand extends a developing ridge of pressure into the tropics. At this stage, there is a low chance for any of these low to reach tropical cyclone status.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Good morning!

It appears a Major Significant Severe Weather Outbreak is in the making for Thursday across the upper Gulf coast and a portion of the SE!

I hope that everyone in the designated risk area will take this seriously and review their emergency plan.
Stock up some supplies and double check the NOAA weather radios!



Photobucket

Photobucket


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SWRN TN TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA....


SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND -- APPEARS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE.
GREATEST
THREAT AREA IS EVIDENT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY/DELTA REGION EWD ACROSS
MS/AL TO PARTS OF WRN GA. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS
EVENT TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS MORE OF MID-SOUTH REGION DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AND/OR EWD TOWARD SRN PIEDMONT/CAROLINAS LATE IN PERIOD.



More details available on my blog


163. As lol S Fla is never in the mix. It must feel left out :P.
Quoting Vortex95:
163. As lol S Fla is never in the mix. It must feel left out :P.
Not really, I'm sure. More like relieved :o)

Have a great day, all! We're starting out overcast here, so just about anything can happen. . . .
#164...I'm not feeling left out.

I'm sure those that are under the gun would rather not have to go through this either!
This event could possibly be a dangerous situation for many residents:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
518 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009


WITH THE ELEMENTS IN
PLACE...LONG TRACK SUPERCELL STORMS SEEM LIKELY. THESE WILL ALL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL
SIZE...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND TORNADOES. SOME OF
THESE TORNADOES COULD BE OF THE LONG TRACK VARIETY AND STRONG TO
VIOLENT. THAT IS A STRONG STATEMENT AND RARELY EVERY USED.
HOWEVER...EVERY THING I HAVE ANALYZED SUGGESTS THAT IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY.



Photobucket

Good Morning All....Yup....All folks along the Northern Gulf coastal areas/states need to stay tuned to local news/noaa radio over the next 24 hours.....The biggest problem (outside of the tornado/wind events) will be localized flooding along rivers/streams and flood watches/warnings are also up everywhere...However, the rain is always welcome for the crops and vegetation....
168. CeBas
New Hurricane Season predictions next Tuesday. Caint Wait.
Quoting MNTornado:


I don't put an stock in the hypercane theories, but the super volcano is not a theory. It is a documented fact though they haven't had any eruptions in a long while. I know that there are folks keeping a close eye on Yellowstone now that they know that it is a super volcano (also a very recent discovery).
Last night on "How the Earth was Made" covered the deep well of magma, or "hot spot" under yellowstone. Apparently it erupts about every 600,000 years. It's now 640,000 years since the last eruption. Earthquakes are increasing, doming is occuring, and a ship that sank under Yellowstone Lake many years ago has now risen so that the wreckage is sitting above water. So that magma reservoir is apparently building. All the more reason for us to enjoy today with all the gifts it brings to us. Who knows? Still, much better odds of getting hit by a truck than wiped out by an asteroid. By the way, Good morning everyone. As always, this blog rocks.
AussieStorm - Is that Surfmom I see on that wave? Fabulous pictures!
Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting...
Quoting charlottefl:
Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting...


It will certainly shift back down into it's "permanent" slot off the US East Coast by June/July in time for H-Season so we can try to figure out what impact this will have on the US and Caribbean....If we end up with Enso neautral conditions during the peak of H-Season, historical climatoly has suggested that the US East Coast, as opposed to the Gulf Coast, would be at a greater risk of a potential strike where the BH settles down for the Summer will play the typically huge role..
Looks like the worm stayed underground. No big issues so far. Link
Quoting charlottefl:
Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting...


Not really that unusual, in that location...Most would not consider this to be the Bermuda High. Don't confuse this with the Azores High which really is the Bermuda High

163. Few! We are just outside the red moderate box
and just on the edge of the 45% box. Most of the
last systems have gone to south of us, except
the HUGE one on saturday that flushed us out with
feet of water. So I'm not too worried. We need rain.
I have a feeling that the flooding situatuion is going to spreading from the FL panhandle area east targeting the big bend area today with flooding......
The Low that develops and comes out of Texas really cranks up as it moves NE as it becomes a 984mb Low....

A 2nd one to follow it appears....

swfl gulf surfers - well it won't look like Aussiestorm's pics........... oh wait a minute..............
--YES IT WILL LOOK LIKE AUSSIE STORM'S PICTURES..........
April Fool's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have the start of the next bump this morning ( no April's fool joke) surf in the shin/knee high range and building. Wind today to crank up from the South and continue to blow through Friday. We should have a ridable wave by late this afternoon and into tomorrow. Friday looks to be our best bet of swell. Kiter's heads up good wind the next few days. Gulf Temp 73

Stillwaiting - waves up yet??? or still a washing machine????

I had a terrific surf session Monday -- still sore!
Quoting TropicTraveler:
AussieStorm - Is that Surfmom I see on that wave? Fabulous pictures!


In my dreams...... although if I didn't land it right.... it would be a nightmare & final curtains LOL

those waves are the kind I watch from the beach -- but that alone would be an incredible life experience....

I have to booty those pictures -- I keep going back and gazing at them for long stretches of time.....
my wave pic (#137) is so puny -- it's kinda funny -- well I still LOVE my Lady of the Gulf!
Tampa - inquiring minds want to know -- any chance for better chances of rain??????????????
Quoting surfmom:
Tampa - inquiring minds want to know -- any chance for better chances of rain??????????????


Not for us! That big High that i posted on 174 is blocking anything trying to come South. Until it moves South Florida will just get some hit and miss Thunder Storms because of the Tropical Flow and the Heating over Land for the Day. Hate to say it but if the Temperatures was hotter in Florida we would get the instability of rising Heat over land and some needed rain.
Surfmom we will have a chance of some rain but, it dries up alot before getting here.
Hummmm, if the pattern persists, we should hear from Redoubt later today.

Magnitude Location Time
5.2 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 34 minutes ago Map
5.5 Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia 8 hours ago Map
6.3 Near the north coast of New Guinea, Papua New Guinea 11 hours ago
Redoubt on monday


Quoting TropicTraveler:
Last night on "How the Earth was Made" covered the deep well of magma, or "hot spot" under yellowstone. Apparently it erupts about every 600,000 years. It's now 640,000 years since the last eruption. Earthquakes are increasing, doming is occuring, and a ship that sank under Yellowstone Lake many years ago has now risen so that the wreckage is sitting above water. So that magma reservoir is apparently building. All the more reason for us to enjoy today with all the gifts it brings to us. Who knows? Still, much better odds of getting hit by a truck than wiped out by an asteroid. By the way, Good morning everyone. As always, this blog rocks.
I saw that one also. I'm not a doomsayer nor a doomsayer slayer, but there are conflicting ideas about Yellowstone.
1. The submerged wreck was over two feet out of the water,yet the GPS on the ground area that had risen the most only showed a 6 or 8 inch rise.
2. Considering the three past eruptions at Yellowstone, each one was significantly smaller than the previous one.
3. The lava pool that created the last eruption has migrated well west beneath much more stable ground.
4. Old Faithfull isn't Old Faithfull anymore.

Just food for thought.(And knock on wood) LOL
Check out the redoubt cam showing fire at the base right now.

Link for a larger view:

Link
Quoting Seastep:
Check out the redoubt cam showing fire at the base right now.

Err.
Those are harbor lights.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Surfmom we will have a chance of some rain but, it dries up alot before getting here.


that what I figured ... I was hoping if I keep asking the same question I'd get the answer I want to hear..... (like my kids)

REDOUBT ---- ????
Quoting theshepherd:
Err.
Those are harbor lights.


HARBOR LIGHT or fire ---????
you sure shep?

If so... LMAO.
Fire at the base would indicate its time to run away.
One of the items that goes unnoticed is the depth of an earthquake. Here are some examples of the differences from just today. Depth in KM is bold.

MAP 6.3 2009/04/01 03:55:02 -3.650 143.939 10.0 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G

MAP 4.7 2009/04/01 05:25:28 -22.567 -65.975 240.7 JUJUY, ARGENTINA

MAP 2.9 2009/04/01 14:52:10 53.049 -168.072 53.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

MAP 2.5 2009/04/01 13:32:22 34.825 -116.406 4.9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Quoting Seastep:
you sure shep?

If so... LMAO.

;>) and LOL
Though the seismograms do show a small constant harmonic tremor, no volcanic tremors or harmonics off the graph are present to support such a lava flow. A few deep tectonic tremors pop up occaisonally, but that has been the status quo for weeks.
Plus I've seen those same lights for weeks since the alert started.
Getting absolutely dumped on in North Florida today - yay rain - bring it on - chase away those spring/summer brush fires!
SIGHTINGS: If you live in North America, this is a good week to see a large spaceship pass by in the night sky. That would be the International Space Station:

Zip code link for timing and position if you are lucky enough to be in the zone.

Link
Lets see what happens this afternoon over here. It was nice to get a little lightning show yesterday evening. Summer rains are almost here. I know we need it.
Northern Florida is experiencing heavy rains today. These rains are most needed in Central Florida. The Tampa Bay area is under heavy water restrictions.
193 and 196
Guys,, When I sailed by that area years ago while in the Coast Guard, there was a lot of oil drilling activity right there at the foot of Redoubt.
My guess is that the lights are on oil platforms or something along those lines.
We have had a little over 3 inches, but we will get a break later this afternoon.
Oss- that's neat site. Thanks. Got a good chance of seeing that up here in northeastern Ohio. It'll be overhead at 8:07 p.m. and very bright. Now, will the sky be dark enough yet.....


St. Tammany homes in danger of flooding as West Pearl River rises to historic levels

Sandbags available from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. in Slidell and Pearl River
Quoting MissNadia:
193 and 196
Guys,, When I sailed by that area years ago while in the Coast Guard, there was a lot of oil drilling activity right there at the foot of Redoubt.
My guess is that the lights are on oil platforms or something along those lines.


Years ago? I think they use electric lights now... not the whale oil ones like you saw them way back then.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Years ago? I think they use electric lights now... not the whale oil ones like you saw them way back then.
Hmmm?
Lava lamps, maybe??? Luv a good pun. LOL
Quoting lakeEFX:
Oss- that's neat site. Thanks. Got a good chance of seeing that up here in northeastern Ohio. It'll be overhead at 8:07 p.m. and very bright. Now, will the sky be dark enough yet.....
It should be visible to the naked eye since it is local and not light years away like stars. If you use biniculars, it will be more detailed. Good luck. 205+206,I think you all could make a new product. Whale oil, lava lamps eh. I would buy one for my hurricane kit. Non-electric Light and entertainment rolled into one item.
Quoting tampabos:
Northern Florida is experiencing heavy rains today. These rains are most needed in Central Florida. The Tampa Bay area is under heavy water restrictions.


Yeah, We sure do need the rain here in Tampa! I have no grass left.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for North and Central Florida north of the Tampa Bay area until 9 PM.
Still does tampa no good. But at least someone is getting rain.
If these storms contain excessive lightning, more wildfires could be created.
How much lightning does it take before it becomes "excessive"?
Lava Lamps LOL
According to the definition I found, excessive lightning is defined as 12 strikes per minute or higher.
Quoting theshepherd:
Hmmm?
Lava lamps, maybe??? Luv a good pun. LOL


Well done grasshopper :)
Quoting tampabos:
According to the definition I found, excessive lightning is defined as 12 strikes per minute or higher.

By Golly he is correct.

Define "excessive lightning". Isn't one strike too much if it hits your house, and 1000 strikes irrelevant if no damage occurs? Also using the term "excessive" impies that lower amount is acceptable, right?
By Jerry Powell

Posted: Aug. 23, 2008

MIKE MOSS SAYS: Jerry, Your point that semantics could be argued endlessly in trying to establish terminology that can clearly convey relative threats is well taken, but for the time being the National Weather Service, in an attempt to make good use of evolving research that is reaching a point where it allows better estimates of the potential for high lightning rates in advance of storm development (based on observed or model-predicted thermodynamic profiles) or during storm cell development (based on radar observations and how echoes of certain intensity correspond to certain temperature regimes within the storm), has settled on the term "excessive" as one of its descriptors of cloud-to-ground lightning flash rates from thunderstorm cells. As currently used, this falls at the upper end of a scale with the following rough criteria:

Occasional = ~ 1 strike/minute

Frequent = ~ 2-6 strikes/minute

Continuous = ~ 6-11 strikes/minute

Excessive = ~ 12 strikes/minute and higher (corresponds to 1 or more strike every 5 seconds)

You are certainly correct that a single strike is too many if it hits your house or strikes a person. However, if two precipitation cells of roughly the same size, speed and duration pass over an area, and one produces a cloud to ground flash rate of 2-3 per minute while the other produces 20-30 per minute, the odds that SOMEONE's house will be struck are much higher with that storm, as is the relative danger associated with being caught outdoors when the higher strike rate cell crosses an area. In addition, it is not unusual for the higher rate storms to actually produce lightning for longer periods than their less active cousins, so that in addition to the rate difference, there can be an even greater difference in the absolute number of strikes produced.



91 Degrees here in Lakeland Florida. Jesus, Summer returned early.
Hello everyone...Has anybody heard anything about this years 2009 hurricane season?
Quoting TampaMishy:
Hello everyone...Has anybody heard anything about this years 2009 hurricane season?


Very similar to last year looking at it possibily. We're also in a weak La Nina which will most likely be a cool neutral by the beginning of Hurricane season. Gut feeling though however and not really anything but an instinct, I really think the East coast is going to get hammared, I feel the same way I did about Texas last year at this time.
The National Weather Service often uses the term "excessive lightning" often in their advisories and warnings.
More fun on the lightning subject. Orb,( ball )lightning. If nothing else, the video has some spectacular close call hits captured. Neat stuff and educational. I wonder if there is a definition for excessive ball lightning?

Link

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued north of the Orlando area.
The weather channel has just coined a new weather term.

A Funderstorm.
A Tornado Warning has been issued:


weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
4 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles ENE Geneva FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-117-127-012045-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0002.090401T2022Z-090401T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 PM EDT WED APR 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SCOTTSMOOR...
EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GENEVA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAYTOWN...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GENEVA...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYTOWN AND 9 MILES WEST OF SCOTTSMOOR BY 445
PM EDT...
Tronadic Cell NE of Orlando Florida. Strong rotation with this one...

That is a wonderful graphic showing what they refer to as a hook echo commonly seen with tornadic cells.
Tornado Warning has been issued:


weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
4 products issued by NWS for: 7 Miles ESE East Timor FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-117-127-012045-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0002.090401T2022Z-090401T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 PM EDT WED APR 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHSOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SCOTTSMOORe...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EAST TIMOR...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAYTOWN...

* UNTIL 525 PM EDT

* AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GENEVA...
MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYCOLMB AND 11 MILES WEST OF SCOTTSMOORE BY 505
PM EDT...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tronadic Cell NE of Orlando Florida. Strong rotation with this one...

Several popping up on this one. Short lived. Link
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

^^^ always remember this.
A tornado has been confirmed with this storm near Geneva.
Quoting Vortex95:
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

^^^ always remember this.


Unless you want to get a good picture or recording of it! Remember, when a tornado watch is issued, make sure your camera and/or camcorder is fully charged.
So is the action all done for the day in the Orlando area? Tstorm cells were back-building and then just fell apart.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
So is the action all done for the day in the Orlando area? Tstorm cells were back-building and then just fell apart.

yep, pretty much
losing the sun
means loss of heat
whick equals lost of
convective energy
Hey tropical folks. I did something interesting by collecting Hurricane Hunter onboard radar images into a loop.

This is a little bit different perspective than what we are used to with stationary land-based radars as the center point of each frame is the plane itself (which you can see in the radar plots). The beam attenuation is astounding. Most of the time, the mets on the plane cannot actually see much beyond what is immediately in front.

We sometimes see this beam attenuation when looking at a single land-based radar and there is more than one line of severe storms.

I'll bet Dr M has lots of these plots, given his past work.

Warning, 11 MB image, but see it in my blog.
Nice link to space flybys Ossqss - pardon my "ditz" --it seems we do NOT get to see the space station in SRQ - just the ISS or some wreckage?

Loved the orbs!!
236. N3EG
Nice topic, Dr. M. As a ham radio operator, I know the upsides and downsides of CMEs, auroras, etc., although never heard of the Carrington event until now. I did some reading on that, and am looking forward to the next blog.

Too bad there weren't ham radio operators back then...
213, 214, 215...
"excessive" Lightning
12? Please

Here, we need a few more adjectives...

Extreme 75

Continuous 250

"Certain Death" 400

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/PDFs/tli_svr.pdf
238. N3EG
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
213, 214, 215...
"excessive" Lightning
12? Please

Here, we need a few more adjectives...

Extreme 75

Continuous 250

"Certain Death" 400

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/PDFs/tli_svr.pdf


Armageddon-like 1000
Sea Forecast Aug 28th Mid GOM 2005 Katrina


"Phenomenal"


Quoting HIEXPRESS:
213, 214, 215...
"excessive" Lightning
12? Please

Here, we need a few more adjectives...

Extreme 75

Continuous 250

"Certain Death" 400

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/PDFs/tli_svr.pdf
Albeit, your numbers are correct with respect to totals. The cloud to ground is what was being evaluated. The charts in your doc, had the highest at 22/min. per the sample involved. Good stuff though. e
Quoting Ossqss:
SIGHTINGS: If you live in North America, this is a good week to see a large spaceship pass by in the night sky. That would be the International Space Station:

Zip code link for timing and position if you are lucky enough to be in the zone.

Link


Should be able to see the International Space Station starting tomorrow in Florida at around 8:30pm. L8R -- Hockey night in Bradenton
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 01/2352 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16S 179E AT 012100
UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON LATEST MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERAY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 29C.

14F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE
ZONE TO THE NORTH. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DETACHED TO THE EAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A 10 KNOT ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR. A SERIES OF LOWS LIES ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH 14F
BEING ONE OF THESE LOW. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD NORTHWEST STEERING
FLOW. A SOUTHEAST SURGE WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTENSE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF 14F.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Hades~ I think NOAA is still calling it 93S. Looked good enough for a pic..
Quoting Skyepony:
Hades~ I think NOAA is still calling it 93S. Looked good enough for a pic..


Skyepony, did you ever find any correlation on your quest a few days ago to the GM item?
245. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Sea Forecast Aug 28th Mid GOM 2005 Katrina


"Phenomenal"




I'm ready for tropical season to get going, with no injuries or deaths. This off-season is wearing and tearing
Quoting IKE:


I'm ready for tropical season to get going, with no injuries or deaths. This off-season is wearing and tearing


59 days and counting!
Quoting Ossqss:
Albeit, your numbers are correct with respect to totals. The cloud to ground is what was being evaluated. The charts in your doc, had the highest at 22/min. per the sample involved. Good stuff though. e
oops.
Except for the fact that it is exceedingly rare for lightning to strike from cloud to ground. It's the other way around. And most often from cloud to cloud. LOL
Quoting theshepherd:
oops.
Except for the fact that it is exceedingly rare for lightning to strike from cloud to ground. It's the other way around. And most often from cloud to cloud. LOL


Check me, the original question related to the rating system for lightning strikes eminated from the ground or vise versa per minute. Hence, the difference from total flashes vs cloud to ground or vice versa per minute.

Origination of the item from prior post.

212. HIEXPRESS 2:44 PM EDT on April 01, 2009
How much lightning does it take before it becomes "excessive"?



Assumed answer from NWS:

Occasional = ~ 1 strike/minute

Frequent = ~ 2-6 strikes/minute

Continuous = ~ 6-11 strikes/minute

Excessive = ~ 12 strikes/minute and higher (corresponds to 1 or more strike every 5 seconds)

I did not write it.

Is it wrong ??? I am no expert, that's why I count on you all. :)

Nightall

248 Oss
yep, my bad

I saw this from #215 and thought he was talking about cloud to ground.
...............................................

settled on the term "excessive" as one of its descriptors of cloud-to-ground lightning flash rates from thunderstorm cells. As currently used, this falls at the upper end of a scale with the following rough criteria:

Occasional = ~ 1 strike/minute

Frequent = ~ 2-6 strikes/minute

Continuous = ~ 6-11 strikes/minute

Excessive = ~ 12 strikes/minute and higher (corresponds to 1 or more strike every 5 seconds)

You are certainly correct that a single strike is too many if it hits your house or strikes a person. However, if two precipitation cells of roughly the same size, speed and duration pass over an area, and one produces a cloud to ground flash rate of 2-3 per minute, etc...
Quoting surfmom:


that what I figured ... I was hoping if I keep asking the same question I'd get the answer I want to hear..... (like my kids)

REDOUBT ---- ????
look for good chance(80%)of rain friday morning/afternoon time period,w/isolated severe south of the tampa bay area,should be able to squeeze another .50-1 inches,as the atmosphere will be darn moist in all layers thru next tuesday,when we might get our final cold front to pass thru the peninsula,the chances for rain in our area will be above average until that happens,I'll keep an eye on the GOM for you!!!
Quoting surfmom:
Nice link to space flybys Ossqss - pardon my "ditz" --it seems we do NOT get to see the space station in SRQ - just the ISS or some wreckage?

Loved the orbs!!



actually,we'll have a spectacular view of the ISS coming up between 9:01pm and 9:03pm this friday looking WNW at about 56 degrees,as long as weather permits,and with any luck we'll have a nice clear sky as the front should have passed about 6-8hrs prior,oh yea its magnitude will be a brillant -3.5 which is about as bright as venus has been,I believe....which will be amazing....i'll be at work but,it should be bright enough,I'll still try and take some pics!!!!
great blog from dr. m.!
i was in melbourne during the tornadic event just north of there today. drove back north through a very strong band of showers.
i too am looking forward to another eventful hurricane season. we are below rain levels here and with today's downpours the trees have immediately responded by bursting forth with leaves.
everyone's happier here when it's wetter...our wildlife thrive in the marshes and canals dotted throughout the landscape.
quite an amazing area here with both the technology of the space coast, complete with merritt island preserve and its multifarious wildlife coexisting alongside satellite tracking stations and high tech space stuff!
Ossqss~ Yeah, it's something to have Dr Masters follow with this blog. I did get sidetracked looking at making a solar food dehydrater. Couldn't really find a space weather, weather connection, at all. Though if you watch WV loops enough, occationally it seems like something flys across, the effect like dragging a finger quickly through the normal current, disrupting everything behind it. I could stand to read up on what drives the MJO & perhaps someone has studied what drives it to loop backward occationally. I'm gonna watch for the incident with geomatic events in the future.
WOW!
Of course, CG stroke rate, and that wouldn't be in the 100s for a cell, would it? If "The ratio of cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud lightning can vary significantly from storm to storm.", it could.
Photobucket


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE


ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN
TEXAS AND ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS AND EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

INTENSE SPRING STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AS ENHANCED WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GULF
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AND FUELS A LARGE AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
EVOLVE AS SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS. TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND/OR LONGER-LIVED...ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE REGION.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.


..EVANS.. 04/02/2009
Look at the temp and dew point, if it's anything like that north of here there's a lot of room for instability.

Photobucket



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
252 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009



GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF HELICITY. THAT
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MEAN THAT ALL FLAVORS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NATURE COAST. SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION UNDER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE NEXT COUNTY TO THE NORTH
UNDER MODERATE RISK...SOMETHING THAT RARELY HAPPENS OVER
PENINSULAR FLORIDA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


Just finished my SKYWARN refresher. Figured it was a good time of year to do so...
That's great Charlotte!
The NWS really appreciate and need all the eyes they can get.

I ran across this earlier from the Mobile office:


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

...TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEULAH FLORIDA FUNNEL CLOUD...

AROUND 535 PM CDT OF TUESDAY 31 MARCH 2009...SEVERAL PHONE CALLS WERE RECEIVED
BY NWS MOBILE ALABAMA PERSONNEL STATING THAT A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS
OBSERVED NEAR THE LANDFILL IN BEULAH. THE INITIAL CALL WAS RECEIVED BY A
NON-NWS METEOROLOGIST AND THEN ADDITIONAL CITIZENS

THE FUNNEL WAS WITNESSED SEVERAL TIMES AS IT MOVED BETWEEN BEULAH TO
JUST SOUTHEAST OF COTTAGE HILL...WHERE A PICTURE WAS TAKEN. A TORNADO
WARNING WAS ISSUED IMMEDIATELY UPON RECEIPT OF THE APPARENTLY VERY
RELIABLE REPORTS.

MIRACULOUSLY...THE ROTATING FUNNEL CLOUD NEVER EVOLVED INTO A TORNADO
ALONG ITS PATH. ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA EMA REPORTED NO DAMAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND IT IS KNOWN THAT THE FUNNEL MOVED OVER A VERY
POPULATED AREA. THE INITIAL EYEWITNESS STATED THEY NEVER SAW THE
FUNNEL CONTACT THE GROUND AND THIS WAS THE SAME OBSERVATION OF SEVERAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS WHO ALSO SAW THE FEATURE ALONG ITS PATH.

ONE OF THE FACTORS BELIEVED TO HAVE PREVENTED THE FUNNEL CLOUD FROM
BECOMING A TORNADO WAS THAT A RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
OBSERVED ON RADAR TO HAVE SURGED SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AFTER
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT
THAT PRODUCED THIS FUNNEL FORMED ON THIS BOUNDARY...THE STABLE RAIN-
COOLED AIR ESSENTIALLY UNDERCUT THE BASE OF THE FUNNEL...AND POINTS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...EFFECTIVELY PREVENTING IT FROM CONTACTING THE
GROUND AS A TORNADO.

THIS EVENT ILLUSTRATES JUST HOW ESSENTIAL ACCURATE `GROUND TRUTH`
PUBLIC REPORTS CAN BE TO THE OPERATIONS OF THE NWS!


MEDLIN

$$
Quoting theshepherd:
oops.
Except for the fact that it is exceedingly rare for lightning to strike from cloud to ground. It's the other way around. And most often from cloud to cloud. LOL

In the 70's lived in Kendall near Miami. On a beautiful clear day with little puffy white clouds, daughter, dog and I were in the back yard. From one of the little puffy floaters came a bolt of lightning. It split over our heads, hit the chain link fence beside us, hit the boat antenna next door in neighbor's yard (blew out chunk of his boat) and melted some of the wiring in our house. No warning, no clue of TStorms, nothing at all to make us think there was anything going on. Made a believer of me about lightning. Took us about half a second to get inside but the dog beat us.
TropicTraveler....That happens quite regularly in south Florida.
There are several reported deaths annually due to lightning hits during periods of clear weather.

Makes it next to impossible to take precautions when there is a clear blue sky and no bad weather around.
Good Morning All....Already warm and a balmy 75 this early AM in the Florida Big Bend region; this does not bode well, once the sun cranks up, for the "second" stronger shortwave predicted to swing through the Northern Gulf later this afternoon/early evening in terms of instability and possible severe weather along the Northern Gulf coast.....Keep your NOAA weather radios handy today along this coast. From the Tallahassee NWS this am:

THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCREASES DRASTICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE OVERHEAD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE
BASED STORMS ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH...AND A MORE ELEVATED VARIETY FURTHER NORTH. KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE INTO TONIGHT
WITH 55-70KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING EITHER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCING 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND 800-1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. LATEST SREF PROBS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH WHERE THE CRAVEN PARAMETER IS REACHING AT LEAST 20000. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT.


Stay Safe...................
Once again....the rainfall will be heavy in the panhandle area which will only continue and exacerbate the ongoing river flooding as well as create the opportunity for Flash Flooding!


Model guidance is suggesting over five inches in the area which puts it in the FF category for today:


Photobucket


Photobucket


Photobucket


more information here

Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 630 AM UNTIL
200 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 145 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
TROY ALABAMA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 101...WW 102...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-70 KT/ IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD
ACROSS THE WATCH.

Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAINESVILLE FLORIDA TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VIDALIA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 101...WW 102...WW 103...

DISCUSSION...STRONG SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
ATOP RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED W-E ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA. AS
AFTERNOON HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH
THE LOWER 70S...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
Post 251 - if you're around I did figure it out LOL -- ISS -- International Space Station -- actually Ossqss clued me in LOL
Post 266 - Vort - EEEEEEK!
Redoubt's eruption sent ash clouds across North America to Europe! As for the next solar maximum, scientists have discovered two large leaks in our magnetic field!Link During a particularly intense solar storm, 130 million North Americans could potentially suffer a blackout.
Post 266 - Vort - EEEEEEK!


Yes Surfmom...a lot of our WUBAs are under the gun today!

Quoting TropicTraveler:

In the 70's lived in Kendall near Miami. On a beautiful clear day with little puffy white clouds, daughter, dog and I were in the back yard. From one of the little puffy floaters came a bolt of lightning. It split over our heads, hit the chain link fence beside us, hit the boat antenna next door in neighbor's yard (blew out chunk of his boat) and melted some of the wiring in our house. No warning, no clue of TStorms, nothing at all to make us think there was anything going on. Made a believer of me about lightning. Took us about half a second to get inside but the dog beat us.


Similar incident just this past Sunday SWFL/SRQ East of I75 - early morning well b/4 the rain.....Lightening Hit the well pump of my bosses house (No Lightening Protection) and completely fried everything. Over 2 Thousand to repair -- been telling the boss he needs to get some protection - would have been cheaper.

Think it was two years ago our house got hit... the boom and energy was so great it blew me off the chair. The cats went completely static (it was one funny sight poor dears) Their fur was straight out .... thankfully we have rods & surge protection so we didn't get fried -- one TV was never quite right after wards.

I think that's where the saying OUT OF THE BLUE originates -- cause it's a "strike" from out of the blue.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Redoubt's eruption sent ash clouds across North America to Europe! As for the next solar maximum, scientists have discovered two large leaks in our magnetic field!Link During a particularly intense solar storm, 130 million North Americans could potentially suffer a blackout.

The United Kingdom Urges
Warning of Solar Flares

from Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

The British Government was urged today to make contingency plans for a freak solar flare that could 'knock out' the National Grid and create severe water and food shortages.

Labour former minister Graham Stringer said Britain should be prepared for a repeat of the solar storm of 1859, which hit Earth and paralyzed much of the telegraph system. In a Commons motion, Mr Stringer said such an event could now 'knock out the National Grid, which would lead to a loss of water supply, transport and food and therefore create a national emergency'.

FULL ARTICLE: http://earthchangesmedia.com/secure/3247.326/article-9162524530.php


I thought post 272, was a little over-the-top, so I had not posted it before.....maybe not.
SWFL/SRQ Gulfster Report
Surfs up! Building swell in the waist high range and looking pretty weak early this morning. Things will change though as the front inches closer and the winds keep blowing, we'll see an increase in the size as the day comes to a close.One major high tide today around 4:20pm. Severe storms North of the Tampa Bay area could produce a twister so keep an eye on the sky. Surf to continue to build into tomorrow and last into Saturday with more swell on the way next week! Gulf Temp 74

See Ya! I'm getting wet.
Had a really bad thunderstorm a few years ago, and you could feel the updraft from the storm at my house, as well as hear it. I turned on the TV and saw the warning go from S-Thunderstorm to RED tornado warning, and I was like oh ok we get those a lot... Then the follow ran across.. NWS Weather spotter has indicated a tornado on the ground in Pt Charlotte moving SW @ .... kinda freaked out to be honest, you get kinda complacent with the warnings but seeing that line I knew it was serious. So I took that experience in mind and I took the spotter training online, and took the test, been a spotter for 2 years now. Think I'm gonna take the advanced training this month. Just trying to do my part, and I'm fascinated by weather so why not?

Ended up being an F-2 passed a half mile south of the house
VORTFIX-Good morning,if you can ,give me your prediction for middle tenessee.
Quoting vortfix:
TropicTraveler....That happens quite regularly in south Florida.
There are several reported deaths annually due to lightning hits during periods of clear weather.

Makes it next to impossible to take precautions when there is a clear blue sky and no bad weather around.



Here is some lightning food for thought from NWS. This is to the ground for clarity.
How far can lightning strike?
Almost all lightning will occur within 10 miles of its parent thunderstorm, but it CAN strike much farther than that. Lightning detection equipment has confirmed bolts striking almost 50 miles away, but these are very rare.

Link

Calculator for ya if ya need it>

Link
Quoting surfmom:
SWFL/SRQ Gulfster Report
Surfs up! Building swell in the waist high range and looking pretty weak early this morning. Things will change though as the front inches closer and the winds keep blowing, we'll see an increase in the size as the day comes to a close.One major high tide today around 4:20pm. Severe storms North of the Tampa Bay area could produce a twister so keep an eye on the sky. Surf to continue to build into tomorrow and last into Saturday with more swell on the way next week! Gulf Temp 74

See Ya! I'm getting wet.



well,well,well.....high tide's at 4:20,thats my favorite time of day,oh yea!!!,I'm finally off today after 9 days straight of working and I feel like I deserve some good fishing,the one strong tide seems like a winner and maybe I'll catch dinner!!!!,hey that rhymes.......the gom looks knee to waist,with nice conditions for you to surf and with the temp hovering around 75 degrees,you should be getting rid of your suit by mid-may...and I can't personally wait til the gom hits 80,may,june and october are my fav. months for swimming,with air temps in the mid-high 80's and the humidity,that water is perfect.....
Waiting for the storms to hit here today...radio is already going off with flood warnings...the rain hasn't hit yet though. Just no tornados!
give me your prediction for middle tenessee.

The outlook is for that area to experience severe weather this afternoon and evening as Gulf moisture increases and flows into the area.
Depending on when daytime heating and dewpoints increase enough is when the severe weather will initiate in the region.

Your best defense against lightning strikes, well 2:


-Looking at local radar

-And knowing what a thunderstorm looks like
from a distance. There are more lightning deaths in FL than any other natural weather occurence
VORTFIX-Thank you,one of the weather men up here said if the quasi-stationary warm front manages its way into tenessee along with the southern jet it could spell trouble for us here
Quoting hydrus:
VORTFIX-Thank you,one of the weather men up here said if the quasi-stationary warm front manages its way into tenessee along with the southern jet it could spell trouble for us here



IT is all about if the STJS is over your area,if it is with the front moving in,your area could be under the gun for long lived strong tornadic cells,anytime from 3pm-10pm cdt.....
looking like it might get down into the low 30's again for north florida(frost watch,freeze watch??),mid-next week time period....amazing there could be crop damage in the SE next week from the cold and crop damage in the SE this week,from the severe weather....gotta love spring!!!,oh yea surfmom and ogss,I wouldn't be suprised if we get down into the low-mid 40's for lows mid next week!!!!!
Lucky me I get to drive to Tampa this afternoon, can you say mobile radar and WU for Iphone lol..
090
fxus64 klix 021313
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
813 am CDT Thursday Apr 2 2009


Sounding discussion...


The atmosphere has already begun to show US what its capable
of...an hour before launch...at weather forecast office Slidell...there were
sustained winds of 35 miles per hour with wind gusts of up to 47 miles per hour. The
sounding shows that the atmosphere is extremely unstable with a
lifted index value of -10.4. The southerly winds near the surface
continue to bring in warm moist air...precipitable water value is
1.24 inches.The Ricks index is 161 which indicates that there is a
51 percent probability of severe weather and the atmosphere is
capable of producing wind gusts of up 74 miles per hour...hail up to 1.37
inches in diameter and tornadoes of up to F2 intensity.
Another one, Vort.

I hope this does not impact that same area of one of ours that got it last week. (Who was that in southern MS Miss Nadia?)

288
Miss Nadia is in Wilmington N.C.
Dang, 3000 MUCAPE at 7 am CDT at Slidell. God forbid the sun comes out for an hour or so...would get more unstable (and likely will).


(Click for full size in new tab)
Dew Point is upto 74 degrees here.. stay safe up there guys...

Another one, Vort.

Oh yeah Atmo!
I don't have time to keep this blog up on all this.
We're working this event over on my blog.
All the info plus warnings are available there!

Quoting MissNadia:
288
Miss Nadia is in Wilmington N.C.


Are you sure? LOL.

Oh yeah, that was SouthernLady that had nadoes blow through town.
Good Morning from Panama City Beach. Training severe thunderstorms, confirmed tornado sighting and widespread flooding here. It looks like it may get worse before it gets better.
Quoting charlottefl:
Lucky me I get to drive to Tampa this afternoon, can you say mobile radar and WU for Iphone lol..



you should be fine no real wx to speak of in our area,other than that darn humid 20-30mph zepher(surfmom)!!!!the wx should move into the TPA area after midnight,possible isolated severe wx on the other coast and in north fl as well.in the area south of TPA we could experience some isolated severe tomorrow morning-early afternoon,with gusty winds and a moderate chance of heavy rain for a couple hrs and if we are lucky .50-1 inches of aqua!!!
Good Morning everyone!
Solid Red= Tornado Warnings
Solid Yellow= S-Thunderstorm Warnings

I'll probably be driving home around midnight or shortly therafter, we'll see what happens. All I know is dew points are high. 1. Warm stable air at the surface, and cold air aloft.
2. Moisture
3. Lift (the only one missing for the moment)

Quoting stillwaiting:



you should be fine no real wx to speak of in our area,other than that darn humid 20-30mph zepher(surfmom)!!!!the wx should move into the TPA area after midnight,possible isolated severe wx on the other coast and in north fl as well.in the area south of TPA we could experience some isolated severe tomorrow morning-early afternoon,with gusty winds and a moderate chance of heavy rain for a couple hrs and if we are lucky .50-1 inches of aqua!!!
Tampa Radar is down for Maintenance, switch to Melbourne....
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

GOM IR LOOP
Morning Tampa... 8K. ;)
Today we may see several large tornadoes. If anyone has a good relationship with the weather gods, please ask them to send rain to Tampa Bay.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1003 am EDT Thursday Apr 2 2009


..slight risk of severe weather over Nature Coast today...


Discussion...some patchy fog is still lingering across much of
the area with low clouds between 500-1000 feet starting to break up.
Expect rain to develop and move into the Nature Coast later this
morning and continue through the afternoon with the boundary
remaining across northern Florida. Warm...moist and unstable air in
place across the Nature Coast will allow any storms that do
develop to potentially contain large hail and damaging winds. Will
update the zones to remove morning fog but the forecast is
otherwise on track.
its going to be one sticky,hot,humid day here in swfl...feels almost like summer,can't wait for that last cold front to make it thru here next week,it'll be a treat for sure after this humidity,with lows in the 40's for 2 nights and day time highs in the low 70's!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting tampabos:
Today we may see several large tornadoes. If anyone has a good relationship with the weather gods, please ask them to send rain to Tampa Bay.


Good luck with that. They said only a 10% chance for tampa.
Quoting tampabos:
Today we may see several large tornadoes. If anyone has a good relationship with the weather gods, please ask them to send rain to Tampa Bay.



I believe the most active and dangerous time period will be from 6pm-4am with possible long lived tornadic supercells near some populated areas in the SE.....
Pat, do you know what was going on last night?

My WX radio went off at about 3:40 AM with a marine warning and said something about a 51 knot gust at KNEW and moving north across the lake. I could find nothing on radar responsible for it. I never saw it (I did go outside for a while at 3 freaking whatever in the morning).

Now I see nothing in the KNEW reports corroborating. Did you guys have some strong winds with no rain last night or not? All I see at KNEW is 15 mph winds at that time.

-------------------
Joe: Hey Bob, there are 15 mph winds at Lakefront airport.
Bob: OK, let me write that dwon.
Joe: See ya later.
--- 5 minutes later ---
Bob: Hey Lucy, Joe syas there are 51 knot winds at Lakefront airport.
Lucy: Wow, we need to issue a warning.
Bob: Yes, I tihnk so.
--- 5 minutes later ---
(RINNG! RINNG!)
Bob: Hello?
Bob: Hey Joe.
Bob: OHHHH. 15 mph, not 51 konts?
Here's the latest severe weather timeline:


Jackson NWS:


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New Orleans NWS:


Photobucket


TPA's best chance of heavy rain should be between 4am-12pm friday......about 60%,with .10-.25 inches expected....with higher amounts to the south as the sun could destablize the atmosphere more,with the front arriving later further south....
Quoting surfmom:


Similar incident just this past Sunday SWFL/SRQ East of I75 - early morning well b/4 the rain.....Lightening Hit the well pump of my bosses house (No Lightening Protection) and completely fried everything. Over 2 Thousand to repair -- been telling the boss he needs to get some protection - would have been cheaper.

Think it was two years ago our house got hit... the boom and energy was so great it blew me off the chair. The cats went completely static (it was one funny sight poor dears) Their fur was straight out .... thankfully we have rods & surge protection so we didn't get fried -- one TV was never quite right after wards.

I think that's where the saying OUT OF THE BLUE originates -- cause it's a "strike" from out of the blue.


Many homes get damaged with transient voltage from close proximity strikes due to improper grounding. Wells are particularly vulnerable since their casings are like big ground rods. I would recommend everyone do some basic checks on their exterior grounding resistance. If that is bad, none of the protection you plug into a wall is worth anything, including UPS units. Basic link here with additional bolt on links imbedded. I just added an additional ground rod, per code and spec to help my cause. They have to be so deep or they are worthless. If your house is over 5 years old, get the Ohm meter out and check it. Use a heavy gauge wire to extend the terminal as needed. Many contractors cheated when putting them in the ground. Hence, why the new rods are encapsulated in such a way that they cannot be cut down prior to inspection. Good luck.

PS -- Surfmom, have your boss read #6 in the 3rd link


Link

Link

Link
look at all that heavy rain in south GA headed towards SC!!!!,I would expect flash flooding into south GA and SC as well looks like 2-3 inches widespread....


Quoting atmoaggie:
Pat, do you know what was going on last night?

My WX radio went off at about 3:40 AM with a marine warning and said something about a 51 knot gust at KNEW and moving north across the lake. I could find nothing on radar responsible for it. I never saw it (I did go outside for a while at 3 freaking whatever in the morning).

Now I see nothing in the KNEW reports corroborating. Did you guys have some strong winds with no rain last night or not? All I see at KNEW is 15 mph winds at that time.

-------------------
Joe: Hey Bob, there are 15 mph winds at Lakefront airport.
Bob: OK, let me write that dwon.
Joe: See ya later.
--- 5 minutes later ---
Bob: Hey Lucy, Joe syas there are 51 knot winds at Lakefront airport.
Lucy: Wow, we need to issue a warning.
Bob: Yes, I tihnk so.
--- 5 minutes later ---
(RINNG! RINNG!)
Bob: Hello?
Bob: Hey Joe.
Bob: OHHHH. 15 mph, not 51 konts?


I got that tone too atmo..
was sleeping fine till then. LOL
Hurricane kit and summer essential. Hand held bug zapper.

Homedepot and harbor freight have these cheap. They work great on most anything that bothers you. Including spouses if you can out run them. :)

Some use D cells for more power. Never tell a friend that it is a small electric guitar and they should try it.
Forecast from SPC for FL tomorrow:

FL...DIURNAL...
BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...OVER PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL FL. FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- MAINLY SPEED SHEAR GIVEN WLY PREFRONTAL WIND
COMPONENT -- IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3/12Z AND 3/18Z. STRONGEST WIND
FIELDS WILL COINCIDE WITH MORNING MIN OF BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY...BUT MAY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR INTO AFTERNOON
DESPITE GEN DECREASING TREND WITH TIME. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FCST
TO UNDERGO STG DIABATIC SFC HEATING ...BUT COINCIDENT WITH WEAKENING
OF BOTH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. PORTIONS CENTRAL
FL MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE ONCE RELATIVE BALANCE OF THESE OFFSETTING
TRENDS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
Suprised to see this in the NOAA news. Here's highlights..

NOAA scientists, in a first-of-its-kind report issued today, state that Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (PBDEs), chemicals commonly used in commercial goods as flame retardants since the 1970s, are found in all United States coastal waters and the Great Lakes, with elevated levels near urban and industrial centers.

“This is a wake-up call for Americans concerned about the health of our coastal waters and their personal health,” said John H. Dunnigan, NOAA assistant administrator of the National Ocean Service. “Scientific evidence strongly documents that these contaminants impact the food web and action is needed to reduce the threats posed to aquatic resources and human health.”

PBDEs are man-made toxic chemicals used as flame retardants in a wide array of consumer products, including building materials, electronics, furnishings, motor vehicles, plastics, polyurethane foams and textiles since the 1970s. A growing body of research points to evidence that exposure to PBDEs may produce detrimental health effects in animals, including humans. Toxicological studies indicate that liver, thyroid and neurobehavioral development may be impaired by exposure to PBDEs. They are known to pass from mother to infant in breast milk.


It goes on~ They are banned in Europe & Asia. Most production here has stopped. They are finding it in preety odd places..providing evidence of atmospheric transport. From burning, leaching & human waste.. They are on the EPA about it. The amount of species #s they are finding it in per some of the areas is sick.

There are multiple tornado warnings in LA right now.
those storms have exploded in the last hr and w/the line moving towards an area were the sun is out=a large scale severe outbreak over central LA,with widespread damage.....
Southwest GA is being inundated with more heavy rain--flood threat there is extremely high

Ive been keeping tabs on my hometowns local newspaper Link and schools have been closed all week and have already been cancelled for tomorrow.

Creeks and streams are way out of their banks and flash flooding has closed many roads in the county.

Quoting stillwaiting:
those storms have exploded in the last hr and w/the line moving towards an area were the sun is out=a large scale severe outbreak over central LA,with widespread damage.....


Sun still out here in Slidell (NE of NOLA across Lake) with Severe Tstorm warnings just 25 miles west of us.

Had 3000 MUCAPE at 7 this morning. This has some potential...
The way the thunderstorms flared up so quickly was pretty amazing. Im here in Baton Rouge, and it was pretty tense there for a while.

What's funny is that this was NOT predicted at all. I checked the forecast yesterday and it said nothing about strong, or severe thunderstorms. I think the focus was mostly to the east of here, and the front had a surprise up it's sleeve at the last minute.

Everything's good. I expect damage in and around Baton Rouge to mimic what it has with the past few storms systems that have moved through over the weeks.

Clean up around here actually looks like a mini Gustav has come back through. Lots of limbs sitting on the side of the road from storms these past few weeks, and more to come from todays storm...again!
I'm about to get soaked setting up a tent I have never set up before; and you can watch...

Strong winds of the south are affecting the Cuban West. To the 11:50 a.m. the weather station of Casablanca reported a gust of wind of 90 Km/h.
Quoting Portlight:
I'm about to get soaked setting up a tent I have never set up before; and you can watch...



Very cool linkage, but are you not a bit toooo close to the active roadway with trucks and buses going by fairly quickly???? Great technology at work... Good luck with the tent item.


Mr. Gustavike person( post 324), could you please shrink your pic size on your post. Thanks Ed ( current deputy blog stretching graphic police stand in for the TS person)
Thanks Ossgs!


Cops are everywhere and keeping traffic moving pretty slow, although you are right, booth space is real close to the road. Road will close starting tomorrow
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
121 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EDEN ISLE...
SOUTH CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EDEN ISLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
Quoting Portlight:
Thanks Ossgs!


Cops are everywhere and keeping traffic moving pretty slow, although you are right, booth space is real close to the road. Road will close starting tomorrow


Just curious, what kind of service and card are you running for connectivity. 3G 4G etc.
Quoting Patrap:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
121 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EDEN ISLE...
SOUTH CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EDEN ISLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.


Patrap, get the helmet and flack jacket on. How many times in the last few weeks for your area? Gotta go and do some work. L8R
Been a wooly Spring so far.
NOAA Radio Speaker wearing out
PC Beach Update. We survived this morning's deluge ( five inches in the rain gauge) with only minor flooding and a few street closings. Confirmed water spout came ashore but no damage reported. Preparing for round two coming later this afternoon. The storms now taking shape in the Gulf SW of us are looking much more organized and than those from this morning.
Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...WW 104...WW
105...WW 106...

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SEVERE STORMS IN MS WILL SPREAD
EWD/NEWD INTO AL/TN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE
NEAR TXK. THOUGH THE ONGOING GULF COAST CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED
MOIST INFLOW ACROSS AL AND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE ERN EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND SOME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE STORM THREAT A LITTLE
FARTHER W THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL VWP/S ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT
VEERING AND SPEED INCREASES WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
Good Afternoon All,
Reporting in from Biloxi where we are getting hammered. News is reporting a trained weather spotter has seen a tornado in BSL, we are under a tornado watch..........news saying a spotter saw a tornado by the airport in Gulfport...go to wlox.com, they are reporting live..lots of reports of hail

The Krewe is safe and sound.......and they said the worse is not here in Biloxi yet........booming and quite a light show......will try to hang out on the blog, might lose power........pouring rain, heavy winds

Later,
GCD
Nickel Sized Hail was reported from the Gulfport Courthouse. NWS Storm Report

Radar
324. Gustavike 1:45 PM EDT on April 02, 2009

You have expanded the width of the blog with this post. Please fix or delete....Bloggers can hide it to return to normal size.
hail hitting......seeking shelter now
NWS calling this a "very impressive Mesocylcone Vortex Complex"..that is moving thru The Warned counties in South Mississippi.

RADAR

Take cover for sure.

This one is a nasty cell.
BTI over 7.2 at times



(Baron Tornado Index)
This is looking very dangerous

ok, in "safe room" with lap top.......hail was for about 1 minute, very short. Still booming and very rapid flashes of lightning....yet the wind has calmed down a bit
Alambama, Georgia, and Flordia is about to have a very Severe Tornado outbreak. This is will get very Severe and serious.
wow, it got real quiet! very little wind, rain is to a drizzle, still booming, less lightning....CB Base is on lockdown so are local schools untill 3:30.......news says the storm is moving at 50mph
wow, what a fast moving storm!! we just went from rockin n rollin to a dead calm...skies are white and not green/black any more
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
wow, what a fast moving storm!! we just went from rockin n rollin to a dead calm...skies are white and not green/black any more


Exactly what happened in Slidell and hour ago
If you do not have a weather radio use this link to Dupage College

Severe Weather Warning Link
Severe Weather Warning Link
Watches are now all the way up to Indiana...WOW!

Quoting atmoaggie:


Exactly what happened in Slidell and hour ago


yeah it's over with now. Good Luck and Stay Safe everyone East of Biloxi...

I just want to say that the last few days of March/early April 2005, we had the same type of storms but had very heavy flooding, much like this area got over the weekend, which I was not here for. I was up in Montgomery, Al where they had baseball size hail....lol

ok, yall....back to regular programming, see yall for the 09 Season, unless we get these type of storms again to report in for
Quoting TampaSpin:
If you do not have a weather radio use this link to Dupage College

Severe Weather Warning Link
Severe Weather Warning Link


I have a weather radio but thanks for the link Tampa!! I'll pass it onto ppl who I KNOW DO NOT HAVE A RADIO!!..I know..lol, rolling my eyes too....
I live in central GA. What are my chances of getting severe?? We already got flooded out. Again. That's twice in a week, with the first one being saturday. (That's what you get for living a few hundred feet from a creek right?)

Anyway, I've heard this front is supposed to
protect central GA, but south GA is gonna get creamed. Is this true? Because I see on the radar a really nasty blob that went over pensecoloa that looks to be headed towards central GA, and a huge line of thunderstorms around Alabama...
I added the Severe Warning direct link to my website if this helps....

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm
Good news!

The latest Day 1 Outlook has scaled things back to a slight risk for Severe Weather:



Photobucket


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S....

Line due E of Pensacola is starting to bow out, if you live in the panhandle be prepared for bad weather, know your emergency plans..
Turning the corner to unstretch things. Lots of energy out in that system.
Hey Ike you around? How have you faired in DeFuniak? Looks like that last one you got was particularly nasty.
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 344 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 342 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 341 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 341 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 338 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
350-anyone? What does it look like for central
GA? It looks like everything is splitting up and going around it but I don't know anything about these things XD
2742 CAPE value for Birmgingham, AL.....OUCH!
Looks like Redoubt is preparing for another eruptive event... look at the webicorder starting at about 0900... lots of little earthquakes. (wish we could see their hypocenter depth)
REF Webicorder for Redoubt
2009-04-02 13:05:32

The number of small earthquakes per hour has continued to increase over the last few hours starting at ~9:30 ADT. Low elevation steam emissions likely continue, though the summit is currently obscured in the most recent webcam views.

AVO has added a new webcam to the website which shows a slightly different view of the volcano. The new webcam is labeled Redoubt-DFR, and provides a view of the summit from the NE direction. The two other webcams are the Redoubt-Hut, which provides a view of the summit from the NW, and Redoubt-CI (Cook Inlet) which provides a distant view of the volcano from the E, across Cook Inlet.

Some pinging in CA also

Magnitude Location Time
3.1 Central California 7 hours ago Map
3.4 Central California 13 hours ago
HERE WE GO.......

TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 526 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 423 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
If you look at tallahassee radar you can see the TVS..
BAM......wow that dry line i knew would be a killer late.......

TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 439 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 439 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 526 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 423 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
In the reign of rain!

so much rain yet none here :(. Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!
The atmosphere should start to stabilize again with the loss of daytime heating (ie the sun) Still may see some severe cells throughout the night but it shouldn't be anything like this afternoon.
Insolation is not so much a factor with Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs). MCCs often reach peak intensity at night. In any case, strong low level jet streaks at 850 mb are forecast to intensify storm development tonight, when they phase, especially between the 0600-0900 time frame, or 2 to 5 AM.
Never seen a triple line like this:

Fiji Meteorological Services
Special Weather Bulletins
=========================

At 2100 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPa) centered at 14.6S 178.8E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on Multisatellite visible imagery with animation. Expected clockwise winds of 25 knots within 120 NM of the center possibly increasing to 30-35 knots in the next 24-36 hours.

Tropical Depression 14F is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-36 hours. The system is currently slow moving but is expected to start moving southeast in the next 12-24 hours on its forecast track, TD 14F is expected to lie to the west of Niuafo'ou in the next 24-36 hours. Winds may increase to damaging gale force winds over Niuas in the next 24-36 hours.


A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.



For Wallis and Futuna
-------------------
West to northwest winds 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots over open waters. Fresh to strong and gusty overland. Winds possibly increasing to damaging gale force winds in the next 24-36 hours. Period of rain, heavy at time with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate northwesterly swell developing. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal area possible.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.


FOr Niuas:
-----
Northwest winds of 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Winds possibly increasing to damaging gale force winds in the next 24-36 hours. Periods of rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate northwesterly swell developing. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas possible.

For Vava'u Group
---------------
Southeast winds 20-25 knots over open waters, fresh and gusty overland. Winds turning north to northeast and possibly increasing to damaging gale force winds in the next 48 hours. Cloudy periods with few showers. Rain developing later tomorrow. Rough seas. Moderate southeast swells.

For Ha'apai and Tongatapu Groups
----------------------------
Southeast winds 20-25 knots over open waters. Fresh and gusty overland. Cloudy periods with a few showers. Rough seas. Moderate southeast swell.
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 814 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 710 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 805 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 702 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F
9:00 AM FST April 3 2009
==========================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPA) located at 14.6S 178.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots within 120 NM of the center, possibly increasing to 30-35 knots in the next 24-36 hours. The depression is reported as moving slow. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation.

Deep convection located to the south of low level circulation center. Banding evident to the north of the system but remains poorly organized at this stage. Quikscat suggest a broad area of low pressure and may possibly have multiple centers. The system lies in an area of low shear in a diffluent region very close to the 250 HPA subtropical ridge. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.25 wrap yields DT=1.5 FT based on DT

Thus T=1.5/1.5/D0.5/ 18 HRS

Global models are keen on developing the system and agrees on a southeasterly track.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
check out the S shaped line. Bump it to 40 frames and check it out. Interesting. Link
When single rains the triple storm, take cover all ye be warned!
Don't forget you can see the space station today and even better tomorrow in many areas. I just eyeballed it and it moves pretty quickly. Here is the link to zip code viewing ...Link
You guys see this? At SPC storm reports: "*** 1 INJ *** AN AMTRAK TRAIN RAN INTO A TREE THAT WAS BLOW ACROSS THE TRACKS BY A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 1 INJURY WAS REPORTED BY S.O."

From nola.com: "The weather also is blamed for delaying 71 passengers of AMTRAK's City of New Orleans who were headed to Hammond and New Orleans from Chicago.

The passenger train hit a tree just south of McComb, Miss., that was knocked down by high winds accompanying a thunderstorm created by the cold front.

The only injury was to the train's engineer, who experienced back pain but was not hospitalized, said AMTRAK spokesman Marc Magliari.

"The front wheels of the engine rolled up onto the tree itself, separating the wheels from the track," Magliari said. But the rest of the train stayed on the tracks, and power and other services were not lost."

This is about 80 miles NNW from NOLA. Driving along on the train tracks in the middle of the woods mining their own business and oops hit a tree...
Quoting Ossqss:
Don't forget you can see the space station today and even better tomorrow in many areas. I just eyeballed it and it moves pretty quickly. Here is the link to zip code viewing ...Link



thats odd,here in my zip code on siesta,we'll be able to see the iss tomorrow night,but tonight there are no features on this date in my zip,and you said you just saw it huh,I thought you can only see it every 48hrs,so how will it be visable tomorrow at 9:01est in my zip???and tonight in your zip????you're only one county away
wow train blown off track and hits a tree.. >.<
whats your zip ogss????,I just checked and there is no iss transit listed for april 2nd in bradenton,fl,just the one tomorrow night at 9:01
34202 . Not real bright tonight. Tomorrow will be better. I am out east with not much light in the way. Should have almost 10 minutes tomorrow with it nearly twice as bright. BTW, it should be much higher tomorrow also. 50 degrees. Then its history.
This will fill 'er up. This year gardeners and farmers will not have to contend with a drought this planting season.

Statement as of 5:12 PM EDT on April 02, 2009

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at North Charleston SC...
... Record daily maximum rainfall set at downtown Charleston SC...

A record rainfall of 2.94 inches was set at North Charleston SC
today. This breaks the old record of 1.54 set in 1947.

A record rainfall of 2.80 inches was set at downtown Charleston
today. This breaks the old record of 1.02 inches set in 2005.

Additional rainfall this evening will result in even higher rainfall
totals.
WOW!!!!!,what a difference 20-30 miles makes,I had no idea you could be that close to me and you can see it but if you look up my zip 34242 its only listed twice this week!!!!,hopefully the clouds from the front will be loing gone tomorrow and if we get a nice clear sky it will be quite a site,i'll be working but will make time between 9-9:05 to try and check it out and get a few pictures as well,we could get some severe tomorrow morning-early afternoon tomorrow....
Quoting stillwaiting:
WOW!!!!!,what a difference 20-30 miles makes,I had no idea you could be that close to me and you can see it but if you look up my zip 34242 its only listed twice this week!!!!,hopefully the clouds from the front will be loing gone tomorrow and if we get a nice clear sky it will be quite a site,i'll be working but will make time between 9-9:05 to try and check it out and get a few pictures as well,we could get some severe tomorrow morning-early afternoon tomorrow....


I am going to try that picture thing with a tripod and a long exposure to see what it looks like. Also going to break out the telescope for the young one and her overnight rental kids. Should be interesting trying to stay on target. That thing moves pretty quick.

Quoting Ossqss:


I am going to try that picture thing with a tripod and a long exposure to see what it looks like. Also going to break out the telescope for the young one and her overnight rental kids. Should be interesting trying to stay on target. That thing moves pretty quick.



you might be able to get a good look thru the tele,but it'll probably be to hard for the younger ones,a good pair of binoculars should do the trick with a magnatude of -3.5 the binoculars might even reveal a bit of detail!!!!......lets just keep our fingers crossed this front clears out nice and early so we get a perfect clear view!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:



you might be able to get a good look thru the tele,but it'll probably be to hard for the younger ones,a good pair of binoculars should do the trick with a magnatude of -3.5 the binoculars might even reveal a bit of detail!!!!......lets just keep our fingers crossed this front clears out nice and early so we get a perfect clear view!!!


Covered on the Binoc's , Nikon Starviews work great. Your are right on the Tele, that will be a task. I could not post the pic, so here is a link of others timelaspe of this thing. Link first one was a " too quick to click " problem, fixed now.
90 degrees 2 morrow in Miami the projected high. Near the record high.
Quoting Vortex95:
90 degrees 2 morrow in Miami the projected high. Near the record high.


IT got to 90 here today
Whats crazy is that the low on tuesday will be under 60 degrees. lol!!!
Wow the tornado watch extends all the way down to here in pasco co. Hope that stuff stays away but BRING ON THE RAIN

Tornado Watch 114 remains in effect until 500 am EDT for the
following locations
Florida counties included are

Alachua Baker Bradford
Citrus Clay Columbia
Dixie Duval Flagler
Gilchrist Hamilton Hernando
Lafayette Levy Madison
Marion Nassau Pasco
Putnam St. Johns Sumter
Suwannee Taylor Union
395. BtnTx
Cool I saw the ISS easily with naked eye and the binoculars and it was only visible for just under 4 minutes moving from WNW to SSE and should be visible again tomorrow
Space Weather storms we've had some pretty good ones right here on Earth also!!!
381. atmoaggie 7:55 PM CDT on April 02, 2009
Wow, we ride that train a few times a year, who would have thought that a tree could do so much damage??? Freak accidents like this do happen though...Must have been a pretty large tree.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.



At 04:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa) located at 15.0S 179.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots within 120 NM of the center, possibly increasing to 30-35 knots in the next 24-36 hours. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation.

Wallis and Futuna Special Weather Bullein
---------------------------

Tropical Depression 14F is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-36 hours. The system is currently slow moving but is expected to start moving southeast in the next 12-24 hours. On its track, 14F is expected to lie to the south of Wallis and Futuna in the next 24 hours. Winds may increase to damaging gale force winds over Wallis and Futuna in the next 24-36 hours.

----

Tonga Special Weather Bulletin
----------------------------

On its forecast track, Tropical Depression 14F is expected to lie to the west of Niuafo'ou in the next 24-36 hours. Winds may increase to damaging gale force winds over the Niuas in the next 24-36 hours.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT FOR FIJI AND ROTUMA


A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND LAU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.



Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa), if it does intensify may bring damaging gale force winds to Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands and Lau group, from later tomorrow.

For Vanua Levu, Taveuni, nearby smaller islands, and Lau Group
--------------------
Southeast winds with gusts up to 80 km/h possibly increasing to damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 65 km/h and momentary gusts to 100 km/h from later tomorrow. Periods of rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms.

For Fiji
--------
Southeast winds of 40-45 km/h with gusts up to 80 km/h. Occasional rain, heavy at times with a few squally thunderstorms.

For Rotuma
-------
West to southwest winds of 20-25 knots gusting to 35 knots over open waters, fresh and gusty at times overland. Period of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorm. Rough seas.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
-----------------------------
A strong wind warning remains in force for all of Fiji waters.

Southeast winds 20-30 knots gusting to 40-50 knots, possibly increasing to 35 knots gusting to 55 knots from later tomorrow especially over waters in Vanua Levu, Taveuni, and Lau Groups. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy southeasterly swells. Poor visibility in heavy rains and squally thunderstorms.
Volcano Redoubt is about to EXPLODE BIG TIME. Go to my WebSite. It is having the same small Earthquakes as it did before the first big Explosion. And because a Dome could be possibly formed Per AVO, this could be a very large explosion as the new Dome collapes.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F
18:00 PM FST April 3 2009
==========================

Current Watches/Warning in effect

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND LAU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.


At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 179.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots within 120 NM of the center, possibly increasing to 30-35 knots in the next 24-36 hours. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving slowly.

Existence of multiple centers with one possible low level circulation center located north of Fiji and second center just south of Futuna. System trying to assimilate but organization still poor with weak banding to the north. System looks like a monsoonal gyre at this stage. Good surges feeding into system from the northwest and southeast. TD 14F lies in an area of low shear in a diffluent region very close to the 250 hPa subtropical ridge. Sea surface temperatures is around 28C.

Unable to determine Dvorak. Dvorak analysis is based on PT.

Thus T1.5/1.5/D0.5/ 24 HRS

Global models are intensifying this system and agrees on a southeasterly track.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
Morning everyone! Waiting to see what this squall line holds. Still a ways out. Windy here.
403. CeBas
We will have to watch the Showers/T-Storms of the East Coast
I remember this day!
I was on my way to see the space shuttle launch and the radio was staticy. It was cloudy enough that you could look at the sun and actually see the sunspot that ejected the mass.
NASA launch the shuttle as if nothing was going on. It was a great launch.
That night I saw the aurora down here in central Florida. It was a sinuous streak of dark dark red across the sky. No green shimmering curtains, just red and fairly static in shape.
There were lots of UFO calls on the radio, with the electrical equipment acting weird, only local stations available in the car, the shuttle going up, it was ominous.
Many people remembered NASA testing radio signals bounced off of rarified gasses 5 years earlier without telling the public "what was up" and it did look somewhat similar.

It makes you wonder what an EMP would really do.
Thanks for remembering that day.
Should have some fun weather in florida today, lets see some rain. Don't know if that line around orlando will make it down here, but it should get interesting with the daytime heating this afternoon.
I am having heavy rain in the Tampa Bay area now with high winds.
407. CeBas
It looks like either STS Ana or TS Ana?
Looks like a new line of showers over Central Florida is trying to develop as the front becomes somewhat stationary. It won't go thru this big high as the front will ride over the top of the High!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a new line of showers over Central Florida is trying to develop as the front becomes somewhat stationary. It won't go thru this big high as the front will ride over the top of the High!

Morning Tampa - yes, getting very dark, drizzley and WINDY here!
If you look at my blog and forecast i posted a NorEaster like Low would develop. Finally got somesthing right..LOL!

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/

Quoting conchygirl:
Morning Tampa - yes, getting very dark, drizzley and WINDY here!


Its not going much further South in my Opinion because of the High. Until that high moves or erodes it won't go through it!
possible severe cells forming offshore 15-20 miles moving towards bradenton/sarasota's coastline w/arrival time from 10:15am-11:45.....possible hail,winds gusting over 50 mph,vivid lightning and blinding rain,if we're lucky we'll get .50-1 inch out of this,but I'm looking at some possible wind damage as the most likely effects from these storms!!!!
Tampa - yep, doesn't look like it is moving much just kinda hanging out. They are predicting big, quick rains around noon.
Redoubt is about to blow its top soon. This could be the worst Explosion coming Yet. Pressures are building as a dome formed and when this dome collapses BIG BOOM will occur. It's coming soon.
thanks Still - just what I wanted to know. I had marvelous surf yesterday --
410 -- you get a lot of stuff right Tampa....
You really think gust over 50mph?????????????

cause I gotta bring in some stuff then..... geeze and I have three new youngster chickens.....
418. CeBas
A Low off the Carolina's? WOW!!! I hope it can develop.
Didn't grab the morning waves... afraid of that out of the blue lightening that can sometimes happen in these conditions. Now I'm pacing hungry for rain and then hoping I can snitch an hour... b/4 work in the ocean
Quoting surfmom:
You really think gust over 50mph?????????????

cause I gotta bring in some stuff then..... geeze and I have three new youngster chickens.....
Put those new chicks in your room and spouse is sure to be pleased. Just kidding! LOL
Tampa,if anyone is forecasting weather,your guaranteed to get it wrong sometimes,you do a good job,better than a lot of high salaried "weather experts".
I think there's a new blog --otherwise I'm in two places at once........... so confused L:OL
Quoting conchygirl:
Put those new chicks in your room and spouse is sure to be pleased. Just kidding! LOL
He had a hissy fit when they came home the other night.... very foul (LOL) mood
heavy winds 35-50mph now building off Sarasota's coastline moving ENE,will be arriving along the coast between 10:00-10:45am.....expect gusty winds,lightning,heavy downpours and possible hail......
looking over the gulf right now.......she looks like she's about to turn loose!!!!(black clouds,winds gusting already)
there's, now a waterspout signature on tpa's tdwr radar's velocity about 15 miles due west of downtown srq!!!!!