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Southern Plains Bracing for Potential Tornadoes, Huge Hail

By: Bob Henson 4:45 PM GMT on April 26, 2016

Damaging tornadoes--and hailstones larger than baseballs--may crop up later Tuesday along a swath from southern Nebraska to central Texas, as a long-predicted outbreak of severe weather takes shape. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has draped a moderate-risk area--the second-highest of SPC’s risk categories--from southern Nebraska into northern Texas. Despite the high confidence that widespread severe weather will occur, there remains uncertainty over exactly where the most dangerous convection (thunderstorms) will develop.


Figure 1. The NOAA/SPC outlook for severe weather issued early Tuesday morning shows a large slight risk area over the Great Plains, with increasing levels of threat centered on central KS and OK. A few severe storms are also possible across the mid-Atlantic, including the Washington, D.C., area. In its update at 11:30 am CDT, SPC extended the moderate risk area into northern Texas.


Here are some key points as of midday Tuesday:

--The strongest storms are expected in two zones: one near a warm front that will be moving slowly north across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri toward southern Nebraska, and the other along and ahead of a dry line that should be located roughly 50-100 miles west of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, and Wichita areas by late afternoon.

--The vertical wind structure of the atmosphere is not ideal for a widespread tornado outbreak. Although winds do strengthen with height, and upper-level winds are somewhat stronger than expected, the upper-level storm moving into the Plains has dug far enough south that winds will have a strong southerly component at all levels. This reduces the amount of directional shear (variation of wind direction with height) that can help enhance storm rotation. In addition, storms that are moving parallel to the dry line will tend to coalesce more quickly over time, rather than being more scattered or isolated supercell storms. Still, there will be local variations in the wind profile, so tornadic supercells are a distinct possibility, including the potential for strong tornadoes. SPC's late-morning tornado outlook reflects the overall picture, with fairly low tornado probabilities spread across a large area. Models were not yet in strong enough agreement to pin down smaller areas of higher tornado probability, but those could emerge later in the day.

--Hail will be widespread, and some pockets of large hail are a near-certainty with this event, thanks to extreme instability (cold air aloft overtopping very warm, moist air at low levels). SPC expects at least a few reports of giant hailstones measuring at least 3” in diameter. This NWS reference list of hail sizes relative to common objects may come in handy. Golf-ball-sized hail is around 1.75” in diameter; baseball size, 2.75”; grapefruit size, 4.00”; and softball size, 4.50”.

--A layer of warm air several miles above the surface should serve as a cap to inhibit thunderstorm development until early to mid-afternoon. Winds above the surface should become more favorable for tornado development over time, so the longer it takes for storms to develop, the greater the risk of tornadic supercells, especially within a window from late afternoon to just after dark.


Figure 2. The high-resolution HRRR model run from 14Z (9:00 am CDT) Tuesday, April 26, 2016, projects a broken squall line to be plowing across parts of MO, KS, OK, and TX by 05Z Wednesday, April 27 (midnight Tuesday night CDT).


--High-resolution short-range models indicate that individual storms should congeal within a few hours into one or more squall lines with severe winds and large hail along the advancing dry line/cold front. This transition may occur just west, just east, or somewhere close to the DFW/OKC/Wichita corridor.

--Additional severe storms, including tornadoes, are possible on Wednesday, especially toward Arkansas and Louisiana, depending on the evolution of this squall line and how quickly the atmosphere recovers ahead of it. Another multiday stretch of severe weather is expected to start late Thursday night over north Texas and extend into the weekend, with excessive rains and flooding very possible around northeast TX, southeast OK, southwest AR, and northwest LA.

25 years ago today: the “overpass video”
Tuesday’s date has added resonance for long-time followers of U.S. severe weather. Tuesday is the 25th anniversary of a major tornado outbreak that pummeled the Southern Plains on April 26, 1991. A total of 55 tornadoes were confirmed, including an F5 twister that moved from near Wichita, KS, to demolish a mobile home community in Andover, KS, killing 13 people there. A subsequent tornado from the same supercell moved over a Kansas Turnpike overpass while a team from Wichita’s KSNW-TV were huddled beneath the girders. The resulting footage--one of the first truly viral tornado videos, even though it preceded smartphones, Facebook, and Twitter--left many with the impression that overpasses were suitable shelter from tornadic storms.


Figure 3. Overpasses are a terrible place to shelter, whether it’s attempting to shield your car from hail or to protect yourself from a tornado. Image credit: NWS/Norman, OK.


As it turns out, the KSWN team was largely lucky: the tornado that struck them was relatively weak, and many overpasses lack the girder structure that helped protect the crew. Subsequently, three people were killed near or beneath highway overpasses by tornadoes in the Oklahoma City area on May 3, 1999. The NWS now strongly advises against using overpasses as shelter, and the case for the danger of this practice is well made in this NWS slide presentation. (Needless to say, parking beneath a highway overpass on the highway to avoid hail, as shown above, is equally ill-advised, as it quickly blocks traffic and could endanger many other people.)

April 26: a date of tornadic infamy
As shown in Figure 4 below, a total of 300 tornadoes rated at least F1/EF1 have been recorded on April 26 in SPC records going back to 1954, as compiled by Harold Brooks (National Severe Storms Laboratory). These include the 1991 outbreak as well as more than 50 tornadoes on April 26, 2011--the day before the horrific 2011 Super Outbreak--and a round of tornadoes that caused 11 deaths in Oklahoma on April 26, 1984. The only dates with a larger total than April 26 are April 3 (317 tornadoes, nearly all from the infamous 1974 Super Outbreak) and April 19 (340 tornadoes, the result of major outbreaks in 1973, 1996, and 2011). The two-day total of 457 on April 26-27 is the largest for any two-day period--largely due to the 2011 Super Outbreak, whose worst day by far was April 27. Of course, tornadoes can strike on any day when conditions are favorable, and Figure 4 reveals that every date in April and May has produced dozens of twisters over the years.

Follow the severe weather on our liveblog
We will be tracking today’s events on a WU liveblog accessible from the WU front page and from this direct link.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. The number of F1/EF1 tornadoes reported on each calendar date across the period 1954 to 2015. Image credit: Harold Brooks, NOAA/NSSL; data from NOAA/SPC.

Extreme Weather Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks and hope everyone stays safe.
Quoting 143. nrtiwlnvragn:




GOES-14 1-Minute Data
(2016/04/18-2016/05/15 only)



Nice. Thanks, nrt.
Thanks dok henson!
YES!!!! SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIME!!!!!!!!



SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE INTO DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/SERN OZARKS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES EAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
   Thanks for the Update, Mr. Henson,
Dr. Timmer has upgraded his forecast to a "High Risk" for tornadoes across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.

Upgraded Tornado Threat Across Parts of Western OK and KS!
Dr. Reed Timmer, Lead Meteorologist April 26, 2016

The tornado threat has been upgraded to the high (4/5) category in two locations within the broader risk area: 1. Near I-70 corridor in vicinity of outflow boundary around 4-7 pm with enhanced low level shear, and 2. western OK into southern KS along dry line especially after 6-7 pm when low-level wind shear increases. The only factor preventing a further upgrade is relatively weak low-level storm relative helicity throughout the warm sector through most of the day, and uncertainties regarding how long the supercells contain remain isolated through evening. Regardless, any supercell from southern NE, KS, OK, and North Texas will have the likelihood of producing of producing very, very large hail to the size of grapefruits.

Outstanding summary of what we can expect this afternoon...............Now we watch and wait.
Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

South Plains sector loop
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1217 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity

Most of the SPC reports in Missouri so far over the past 3 hours: hail and strong straight-line winds in some t-storm cells. 

last3hours Reports Graphic


Here's the GEOS-5 for this evening & tonight's bad weather..

Not promising for folks out ahead of the current line, and LA and the Southern tier for tomorrow, that we are not seeing much of a rain shield out front to help cool things down as the front/low push East:


Added a new entry swirl watching in the Atlantic last night with more recent like ASCAT & the wave that looks to be developing near Hispaniola in the comments.

Saturday keeps looking epic bad on GEOS-5. Have a safe day everyone..
Just waiting
South east PA... sunny, very warm and windy. The rain will be welcome here as it has been dry. I am hoping that we do not have the hail storm of a couple years back...
This mornings TWC HR model did not show a bow approaching StL, fortunately looks to be heading south of me but rain is approaching us in S C IL before them. Last thing overcelebrated Blues fans need is a lot of thunder:)

Currently we have 82 W/ soupy 63 dew pt., 29.77" (StL 29.69), light southerly winds w/ mid teen gusts (so far). Bow looks to be about 50 mi W of StL. Have us covered in blues, but nothing here yet. Can see darker lower clouds to W though.
Quoting 23. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

test




You scored a 93 A-. Congrats!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261853Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RAPID INITIATION OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
WRN OK INTO NW AND W-CNTRL TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IS IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL
TX...E OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAVY DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM ALVA
OK SSWD TO SWEETWATER TX. ONE-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S F. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM IS SPREADING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE...RAPID
TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS SOON AFTER INITIATION WITH AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DATA ESTIMATE MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE
A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WINDS...A
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AND BE MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. EVENTUAL
CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND
NW/W-CNTRL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016
Test 5
The blog is working!!!!
That was about an hour of blog interruption. I sure hope it doesn't go down again.
Quoting 29. Sfloridacat5:

Test 5
The blog is working!!!!



Happy the blog is working at the moment.. not happy about the potential for tornadoes and fist sized hail
Looks like the dry line is starting to fire off now across N.W. Oklahoma extending up into S.C. Kansas.
Quoting 29. Sfloridacat5:

Test 5
The blog is working!!!!
That was about a hour of blog interruption. I sure hope it doesn't go down again.
This is the wrong time for it to go down with the severe weather that is forecast to happen later on.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND OTHER SUSTAINED
STORM CLUSTERS...EXPECTED TO POSE A MULTI-MODE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ALL LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BEATRICE NEBRASKA TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND OTHER SUSTAINED
STORM CLUSTERS...EXPECTED TO POSE A MULTI-MODE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ALL LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BEATRICE NEBRASKA TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...
Will have to admit that the low has taken quite the trajectory towards the North all morning; about to head into Wyoming and Nebraska (and not having crossed into Texas at this point in terms of the axis):


Upper Level:

Surface:
25 year anniversary of the Andover KS Tornado...Hits McConnell AFB...

Video here...Link
This is is definItely a STS IN THE CATL
Quoting 39. hydrus:

25 year anniversary of the Andover KS Tornado...Hits McConnell AFB...

Video here...Link


Another lil known fact that there were over 80 aircraft at the Base, with 2 B-1 Bombers on ready alert that were loaded with Nuclear Weapons at the time of the Tornado. None were affected.
Waiting in Norman for things to get going around here. OU has cancelled afternoon classes.
Quoting 40. stoormfury:

This is is definItely a STS IN THE CATL


It needs to be invested now. I think we could get STS Bonnie very soon.
Some rotation with the warned cell. Think it could be upgraded to a tornado warning in the future.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 230 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER WESTERN PART OF WATCH...INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES AND
CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND.. AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 230 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER WESTERN PART OF WATCH...INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES AND
CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND.. AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...WW 108...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
A proto-line is finally starting to set up in the Texas Panhandle; have to see if t-storm cells start to develop along this line over the next several hours as it pushes East towards Central Texas and Oklahoma:

South Plains sector loop


%uFFFD%uFFFD

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 109

Double post - switched it over to updated radar. Wichita heads up on the cell coming your way.
Dry line firing off. When the dry line starts firing all the way down into Texas things are really going to get going.
Quoting 40. stoormfury:

This is is definItely a STS IN THE CATL



Do you mean this thing ????

I live NW of Fort Worth, just saw the PDS tornado watch. Could be pretty intense when the storms arrive later. Just starting to build in NC Oklahoma.
It's particularly dangerous when the dry line fires to the west of Oklahoma City. You have to have just the right setup to get a dry line to fire west of Oklahoma City and also during the peak heating of the day.
We haven't had this setup for some time. Very dangerous setup for the OKC region.
No change with the 20z SPC outlook. Not sure I've ever seen an upper-end PDS Tornado Watch for an Enhanced (10%)-level tornado day.
One of the cells S.W. of Wichita looks like it should be tornado warned. It's taking on the classic butterfly shape with a tail.
Check out the structure on the cell S.W. of Wichita. (just crossing the boarder into Kansas)
Radio out of StL says temp dropped 16 degrees quickly (into mid to lower 60s) w/ passage. Have darker greens over us but still nothing but drops. Can hear thunder now though, from the oranges to the W. Temp down to 77 w/ cloud cover, dew pt up a little to 65, press down a tick (StL coming up w/ passage) & winds still pretty light.

PDS little further S than original highest danger area, just starting there and N to come or has it shifted S for good? Stay alert regardless!
Here we go. I am going to try as much as I can to live update with new news and put it here on this blog. If it doesn't glitch again. *crosses fingers*
How is the S.W of Wichita storm not tornado warned yet? Not a good spot for that storm especially considering what the anniversary is today.
Here is the link to the Tvn live storm chaser map. You can see streams of the storms today. https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783531
Tornado Warning for that cell I mentioned S.W. of Wichita.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 313 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF CALDWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARGONIA AROUND 340 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
MAYFIELD...WELLINGTON AIRPORT...MILAN AND PERTH.

#

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3700 9780 3737 9780 3734 9735 3700 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 209DEG 26KT 3706 9775

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN
That southern cell near Enid is also starting to rotate.
Thanks for the updates people... Hope this turns out to be nothing. Glad that it appears most are prepared for the worst. You know if school wasn't cancelled, an EF-5 with beach ball sized hail would have come down.
God Speed to everyone in harms way today and going home to see the live coverage on TWC; hoping for the best today and tonight (minimal property loss and no loss of life). Check back in the am and here are the current SPC reports for the past 3 hours.............Things are starting to pick up for sure:

Stay Safe and keep an eye out and have a battery operated NOAA alert radio for when/if you lose power and for the overnight hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic

El Faro’s Voyage Data Recorder Located

The voyage data recorder (VDR) belonging to sunken cargo ship El Faro was found early Tuesday morning in 15,000 feet of water, about 41 miles northeast of Acklins and Crooked Islands, Bahamas, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced.

The next step in the ongoing investigation is to determine how the VDR can be retrieved.

The Atlantis will stay at the accident site through April 30 while the team continues the photo- and video-documentation of the sunken ship and debris field before returning to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, on May 5.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 332 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 328 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 427 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 427 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 323 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 423 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 321 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 315 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 313 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 313 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 323 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSHONG...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ESKRIDGE AROUND 350 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3864 9615 3863 9633 3898 9629 3889 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 192DEG 23KT 3869 9626

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
Phew. Thought I was losing my mind. Table was shaking.... Yep... had an earthquake - 4.7 in Talkeetna, which is by Denali National Park.
Quoting 74. Kenfa03:

What happened to sar?
nothing happened he moved on the wu keeps turning with or without him his choice
Quoting 79. Dakster:

Phew. Thought I was losing my mind. Table was shaking.... Yep... had an earthquake - 4.7 in Talkeetna, which is by Denali National Park.
as long as it was not greater than a seven you should be fine
Quoting 65. Geoboy645:

Here is the link to the Tvn live storm chaser map. You can see streams of the storms today. https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783531
Was able to watch for a few minutes.. now the site won't load.. probably too many users i'd imagine..
Quoting 83. JNFlori30A:

Was able to watch for a few minutes.. now the site won't load.. probably too many users i'd imagine..

Just popped back up for me.
Quoting 83. JNFlori30A:

Was able to watch for a few minutes.. now the site won't load.. probably too many users i'd imagine..


Here too. Made the mistake of refreshing the page.
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nothing happened he moved on the wu keeps turning with or without him his choice
Thanks. Usually enjoyed his posts.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 344 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF DWIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND SOUTHEASTERN RILEY
COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 309 AND 320.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3889 9656 3896 9668 3916 9659 3914 9649
3899 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 219DEG 13KT 3898 9659

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN
We've joined the temp drop as rain falls more heavily in S C IL, down to 64, dew pt dropped to 59, pressure on way back up slightly but avg winds up into lower 20s w/ lower 40s gust & now WNW instead of S.

Post - Dispatch site says StL area had up to 1" hail and gusts in the 60s as bow moved through quickly.
Quoting 82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as long as it was not greater than a seven you should be fine


If it was greater than a 7, I would have known right off the bat it was an earthquake.
Pretty much every cell that forms is either going severe or tornado warned. It's going to be a busy night for the NWS.
Also, dry line down in Texas is starting to fire. A warned storm about to move into S.W. Oklahoma.
Already seeing strong individual supercells starting to pop. I hope everyone has their plans ready and stay safe!
We really need to watch these new cells forming across west central Oklahoma down into southwest Oklahoma.
Cell trying to pop up around Lawton OK. Probably will target that one once/if it develops. Should head near the Norman area.
Well now TVN is down. This may be a bit harder than I thought.
Ok is it me or the SW of Wichita storm looking to take a very familiar track?
Really firing off now across Oklahoma.
Guys I think because of my link I broke tvn :c
ramping up now

Quoting 99. Geoboy645:

Guys I think because of my link I broke tvn :c

Not at all. I'm watching Micheal Hook's stream right now & have been since before your other comment.

I've posted their stream here before.


They found the data recorder in the ship that went down in Joaquin. It was 15,000ft below the surface.
Those of us here in OK will be keeping our heads down, but with our eyes to the sky. Unfortunately it looks as if "things" will be entering into the more populated areas just as the sun is going down. :(

Just hoping that the hail size stays in the "does not dent the car too bad" range.
Did someone break the blog?
Two posts in half an hour? Dire stuff.
Today's going just about as expected, with veer-back-veer issues leading to a messy storm mode across Kansas. Down across Oklahoma and Texas, initiation is taking longer than expected due to a significant cap. This means the dryline will probably erupt all at one time once forcing arrives, leading to a MCS. The window for discrete supercells is closing. The PDS Tornado Watch will probably bust. On to the next potentially significant day, Friday.

(Not to take away from the serious threat for giant hail and damaging winds this evening, I'm speaking in terms of tornado potential.)

Hello. It's me.
Tonado warning just issued southwest of Tipton, OK
Looks as if comments are no longer working . . . . . :(
Well so far quiet tornado wise.
NOOOO! They glitched ! :C
down a rabbit hole - -

they found the El faro data recorder

and I have a loved one in Bethany, OK-

peace ya'll
Hard to see but there is a tornado warning down in S.W. Oklahoma.
The blog has been very unpredictable yesterday and today. Will it work or not? That is the question.
Deleted post - was a double post thanks to the blog freezing up again.
I agree with Cody on tornadoes today- not the right setup, wind profiles are the problem. Many mets have picked up on this in the past couple days, helping to sort through the hype. The system hasn't played out quite as modeled several days ago. Doesn't mean no severe weather threat though. My GRLevel3 radar has counted up to an incredible 44 severe thunderstorm warnings in effect at once, really all over the central and eastern US. Today will likely be remembered not for tornadoes but the sheer number of severe weather reports and their areal coverage.
Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The window for discrete supercells is closing. The PDS Tornado Watch will probably bust. >


Well, for those of us that are here . . . we only hope that you're correct. :D
Question. What does veer-back-veer mean?
There's a lot of hype today regarding the severe weather event in the plains. Subsequently, there's a lot of storm chasers out. I hope everyone uses their discretion while chasing today, otherwise the chaser community as a whole will once again be shed in a negative light if there the roads are clogged by amateur chasers and a tornado is barring down on them.
El Faro.

My co-worker's husband was on it.
Quoting 117. Geoboy645:

Question. What does veer-back-veer mean?

A veering wind is one that turns clockwise with height. A backing wind is one that turns counter-clockwise with height.

So on a day like today, you have veering (clockwise)-backing (counter-clockwise)-veering (clockwise). Mark Ellinwood from US Tornadoes put it best, "Winds that veer with height are good. Veering winds help create the spin in updrafts, which can then lead to mesocyclones, rotating wall clouds, and perhaps tornadoes. Backing winds create spin in the opposite direction, disrupting the nice, circular flow created by the veering winds. Think of it as stirring your coffee in one direction, then taking your spoon and swirling it back in the opposite direction. Your nice coffee funnel has suddenly turned into a turbulent mess. "


Tornado bust day.Wind and hail.
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A veering wind is one that turns clockwise with height. A backing wind is one that turns counter-clockwise with height.

So on a day like today, you have veering (clockwise)-backing (counter-clockwise)-veering (clockwise). Mark Ellinwood from US Tornadoes put it best, "Winds that veer with height are good. Veering winds help create the spin in updrafts, which can then lead to mesocyclones, rotating wall clouds, and perhaps tornadoes. Backing winds create spin in the opposite direction, disrupting the nice, circular flow created by the veering winds. Think of it as stirring your coffee in one direction, then taking your spoon and swirling it back in the opposite direction. Your nice coffee funnel has suddenly turned into a turbulent mess. "



Ohhh. Thanks
KFOR Channel 4 Live Stream

Hope everyone stays safe out on the roads and in the larger area that will be affected in the next few hours.
Quoting 119. aquak9:

El Faro.

My co-worker's husband was on it.


I am so sorry!
Hopefully not another hail storm for the Dallas Fort Worth area.

Torcon lowered to 5 through 11 in Kansas and Oklahoma. Based on what I'm seeing on radar and this is just an opinion and observation. I'm just not sure these storms have enough to really rotate at the lower levels for strong tornadoes. It might turn into more of a line of storms sooner rather then later with smaller and quick spin ups. Large hail and damaging winds for sure are big threats we will have to see how it plays out, stay prepared at all times.
Confirmed tornado...in Indiana.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...
EAST CENTRAL VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 555 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWBURGH...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
Quoting 118. CybrTeddy:

There's a lot of hype today regarding the severe weather event in the plains. Subsequently, there's a lot of storm chasers out. I hope everyone uses their discretion while chasing today, otherwise the chaser community as a whole will once again be shed in a negative light if there the roads are clogged by amateur chasers and a tornado is barring down on them.
Quoting 118. CybrTeddy:

There's a lot of hype today regarding the severe weather event in the plains. Subsequently, there's a lot of storm chasers out. I hope everyone uses their discretion while chasing today, otherwise the chaser community as a whole will once again be shed in a negative light if there the roads are clogged by amateur chasers and a tornado is barring down on them.


Even the pros get killed out there too...
Reed Timmer is on the cell in S.W. Oklahoma. He posted a short video of the wall cloud associated with the cell on his Twitter page a few minutes ago.
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A veering wind is one that turns clockwise with height. A backing wind is one that turns counter-clockwise with height.

So on a day like today, you have veering (clockwise)-backing (counter-clockwise)-veering (clockwise). Mark Ellinwood from US Tornadoes put it best, "Winds that veer with height are good. Veering winds help create the spin in updrafts, which can then lead to mesocyclones, rotating wall clouds, and perhaps tornadoes. Backing winds create spin in the opposite direction, disrupting the nice, circular flow created by the veering winds. Think of it as stirring your coffee in one direction, then taking your spoon and swirling it back in the opposite direction. Your nice coffee funnel has suddenly turned into a turbulent mess. "




There is also a sizable cap in place, which leads more to hail and wind threats, rather than tornadic activity.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 619 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 717 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 617 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 616 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 615 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 615 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 613 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 612 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 609 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 708 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 608 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 707 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 606 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 704 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 603 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 703 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 600 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 557 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 557 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 556 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
About a week ago we had 10 tornadoes on a Slight Risk day. We were lucky they were all out in the Texas Panhandle area.

Storms really starting to fire between the cluster of semi-discrete supercells and I-35. With increasing low-level shear over the next few hours, the tornado threat is not quite over yet.
HGX Weather disco:


FAIRLY QUIET WX ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTING THIS
TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPEN-
ING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THIS LINE IS FCST TO MOVE E/
SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...LIKELY REACHING THE NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABIL-
ITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES INTO SE TX...THERE IS STILL CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH
.
HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CELLS WILL
BE MOVING SO EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL AVG FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST BY WEDS AFTN WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER E/NE. A BIT OF A BREAK THEN UNTIL FRI WITH
THE UPPER FLOW GOING ZONAL BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE
SOME ISO POPS FOR THUR AFTN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/CENTRAL ZONES
IN DEFERENCE TO THE SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE RAIN CHCS RETURN TO THE
FCST FRI (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW DIGGING AOA THE
FOUR CORNERS). STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM PROGGED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT. FCSTS OF HIGH PWS (1.8"-2") AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER RUNS KEEP RUNNING WITH THIS. 41


How destructive will this line of storms be once in Houston? Will we see even WORSE Saturday?



Test.
Quoting 131. jeffs713:


There is also a sizable cap in place, which leads more to hail and wind threats, rather than tornadic activity.

And, 0-1km shear has been generally around 10kt for most of today, only recently strengthening to near 20kt.

A little bit of everything contributing to a huge bust.
Quoting 138. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And, 0-1km shear has been generally around 10kt for most of today, only recently strengthening to near 20kt.

A little bit of everything contributing to a huge bust.



What about the concerns about cap strength in the Houston pro met disco I just posted. Is it more likely that the cap will break than hold?
I guess the chances of that low forming are decreasing, again...either that or this severe weather talk is distracting people.
Got some quarter sized hail in norman and winds around 50 mph.
Picked my 14yo son up from after school, told him he had to go with me for my job, went to southern part of my county parked, and watch a severe thunderstorm with hail 2 miles north, he said he lets go into the storm and see the hail, I told him, NOPE, if there's a tornado, we might not be able to escape it, and the hail will damage the truck, we can see just fine from here, and witness the lightning. Taught him a valuable lesson on watching storms, stay back from a distance.
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

About a week ago we had 10 tornadoes on a Slight Risk day. We were lucky they were all out in the Texas Panhandle area.




Speaking as a resident of the Texas Panhandle, I can tell you that none of us consider it lucky when they are all in our neighborhood. And while we've had some major hits to the myriad of small and not so small towns that dot the panhandle every 15 or 20 miles, I will concede that we have been lucky and not had a confirmed tornado through either major metro since the 1970's. Though each year at least one tornado kisses our outskirts, resulting in a couple hundred thousand usually sleeping individuals, turning into a couple hundred thousand rather cranky individuals the next morning. We in the metro's are lucky. Several of the smaller towns take hit after hit with only a year or three in between.
Quoting 140. HurricaneFan:

I guess the chances of that low forming are decreasing, again...either that or this severe weather talk is distracting people.


hurricane season dos not start in tell june 1st so right now we are in are main severe weather season and that more importent then some STS that we may or may not see out of midded of no where
Quoting 135. pureet1948:

HGX Weather disco:


FAIRLY QUIET WX ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTING THIS
TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPEN-
ING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THIS LINE IS FCST TO MOVE E/
SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...LIKELY REACHING THE NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABIL-
ITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES INTO SE TX...THERE IS STILL CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH
.
HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CELLS WILL
BE MOVING SO EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL AVG FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST BY WEDS AFTN WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER E/NE. A BIT OF A BREAK THEN UNTIL FRI WITH
THE UPPER FLOW GOING ZONAL BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE
SOME ISO POPS FOR THUR AFTN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/CENTRAL ZONES
IN DEFERENCE TO THE SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE RAIN CHCS RETURN TO THE
FCST FRI (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW DIGGING AOA THE
FOUR CORNERS). STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM PROGGED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT. FCSTS OF HIGH PWS (1.8"-2") AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER RUNS KEEP RUNNING WITH THIS. 41


How destructive will this line of storms be once in Houston? Will we see even WORSE Saturday?





It's possible the line makes it to Houston, but it will be on a weakening trend and probably not all that significant.

The main severe weather threat should be to the northwest of Houston on Saturday, but flooding will be a big concern there.
this was a major bust never seen any thing like it i think a PDS severe t-storm watch would have been better little too no tornados today now its a big wind event and hail event

What a bust. Not even a single tornado report in the PDS watch area.
Quoting 146. Tazmanian:

this was a major bust never seen any thing like it i think a PDS severe t-storm watch would have been better little too no tornados today now its a big wind event and hail event
Glad it busted...It isnt over tho...The SPC was playing it safe...As they should.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg
Quoting 147. hurricanehunter27:


What a bust. Not even a single tornado report in the PDS watch area.
think its great no naders but that's just me
Quoting 149. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg



Yea, it's starting to look pretty likely the +AMO period that spurred increased Atlantic activity has ended. 2013-present has looked a lot like the 1970s so far.
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

think its great no naders but that's just me


All for the bust here! Thunderstorm moving in but happy that no "big" tornados are present. Winds and hail still possible though.
mod Risk RIP
Quoting 154. Tazmanian:

mod Risk RIP
What that mean?
Quoting 155. Kenfa03:

What that mean?
It means he is disappointed not more people were killed by a swarm of tornadoes.
Quoting 155. Kenfa03:

What that mean?


it busted
Quoting 157. CaneFreeCR:

It means he is disappointed not more people were killed by a swarm of tornadoes.
Thats terrible.
Just did my latest blog update on our potentially-developing subtropical cyclone southwest of the Azores.

By the way, not surprised at the announcement that the warm phase of the AMO is over. Usually a phase switch occurs every 2 decades just about, with the last one occurring from cold to warm in about 1995.
Quoting 145. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's possible the line makes it to Houston, but it will be on a weakening trend and probably not all that significant.

The main severe weather threat should be to the northwest of Houston on Saturday, but flooding will be a big concern there.




THIS is a weakening trend, TropicalAnalyst?
Quoting 149. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg

Hmm.... interesting. I'm remembering that we had David, Allen, Gilbert, and so on in the last quiet period. Thus I'm more curious as to where the storms would trend than how many ....
Quoting 160. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my latest blog update on our potentially-developing subtropical cyclone southwest of the Azores.

By the way, not surprised at the announcement that the warm phase of the AMO is over. Usually a phase switch occurs every 2 decades just about, with the last one occurring from cold to warm in about 1995.
I just want to say we called it here first .... lol ...

I vaguely recall somebody back in '12 saying how it looks like the signature was changing and if we continued with the slow seasons we might have seen the end of the active period .... can't remember who, though. As I said earlier, fewer is good; however, track trends are just as important [if not more so].
Quoting 145. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's possible the line makes it to Houston, but it will be on a weakening trend and probably not all that significant.

The main severe weather threat should be to the northwest of Houston on Saturday, but flooding will be a big concern there.
From the forecast discussion out of Houston/Galveston NWS office:
THE RAP...TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR ALL WANT TO BREAK THE CAP
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
08-14Z WHILE THE GFS AND NAM12 MAINTAIN THE CAP AND WEAKEN THE
PRECIP PRIOR TO REACHING THE HOUSTON AREA. MODELS ARE SENDING
MIXED SIGNALS BUT THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP (35-40 KTS) AND THE RAP/HRRR/WRF ALL INITIALIZED WELL SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE RAISED
POPS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND BROUGHT SEVERE WORDING
JUST A TAD FURTHER SOUTH (INTO HOUSTON). THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KCLL AROUND 4 AM...HOUSTON AROUND 6 AM AND GALVESTON
AROUND 8 AM. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE CAP
STRENGTH AND IF THE CAP HOLDS...THE AREA WILL PROBABLY JUST GET A
FEW SHOWERS. A SPECIAL SOUNDING WILL BE LAUNCHED AT COLLEGE
STATION LATER TONIGHT AND HOPEFULLY WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLUES ON
CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY.
I guess Pureet will spend a sleepless night waiting for 6 AM to roll around.
Quoting 149. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg



Can't get much more negative than that, per say. Less Cape Verdes, more home grown storms. We shall C
How do you contact the Wunderground admin?

Dr. Rood's blog with comments is trying to load malware on my machine. Was detected and removed twice so I verified the source.
Quoting 164. bappit:

From the forecast discussion out of Houston/Galveston NWS office:
THE RAP...TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR ALL WANT TO BREAK THE CAP
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
08-14Z WHILE THE GFS AND NAM12 MAINTAIN THE CAP AND WEAKEN THE
PRECIP PRIOR TO REACHING THE HOUSTON AREA. MODELS ARE SENDING
MIXED SIGNALS BUT THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP (35-40 KTS) AND THE RAP/HRRR/WRF ALL INITIALIZED WELL SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE RAISED
POPS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND BROUGHT SEVERE WORDING
JUST A TAD FURTHER SOUTH (INTO HOUSTON). THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KCLL AROUND 4 AM...HOUSTON AROUND 6 AM AND GALVESTON
AROUND 8 AM. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE CAP
STRENGTH AND IF THE CAP HOLDS...THE AREA WILL PROBABLY JUST GET A
FEW SHOWERS. A SPECIAL SOUNDING WILL BE LAUNCHED AT COLLEGE
STATION LATER TONIGHT AND HOPEFULLY WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLUES ON
CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY.
I guess Pureet will spend a sleepless night waiting for 6 AM to roll around.



Yes, I will, Bappit. And it does seem the cap breaking is more likely than the cap holding. Or is that just my imagination.


Marginal Risk R.I.P. I look forward to my fourth power outage tomorrow.
Quoting 166. bappit:

How do you contact the Wunderground admin?

Dr. Rood's blog with comments is trying to load malware on my machine. Was detected and removed twice so I verified the source.


Thanks, bappit--I've notified administrators.
not even any rain here....


Put the sandbag away then PEd. Maybe next time you will need it.

What was the tally for the bad weather in the plains? Everyone do OK, I hope?

AK internet was being annoying earlier so I couldn't logon...
Tornado signature just west of Junction, Texas. There were two farther away, again west of Junction. All in a secondary line of storms which formed north of Del Rio. Storm with tornado signature was 52k.
Good evening, y'all! It's looking like it will be a rough night in Central Texas... Hope everyone is doing well! :)

Frosty this morning here in Acme, wa. 34° on the porch so probably 30-31° in the field. A few young walnuts and ash trees got a little nipped as did a couple potatoes but most things look fine. Some cloud cover tonight should help keep a little more heat. Hope this is the last frost for the season.
What seemed unlikely now appears headed directly our way in southern Burnet County. Pressure has dropped to 29.53, dew point up to 72 (via wu). The secondary line has gained in strength, plus a tstorm has formed 20 miles west of us in the null area between the primary line north of us some 15 miles and the secondary line west of us about 50 miles. The line should arrive in an hour to an hour and a half; the smaller storm in 30 minutes or so.

We've been missed by much of these April rains, so a good soaking would be great. Of course, the byproducts, wind and hail, are not so desirable.
Quoting 174. plantmoretrees:

Frosty this morning here in Acme, wa. 34° on the porch so probably 30-31° in the field. A few young walnuts and ash trees got a little nipped as did a couple potatoes but most things look fine. Some cloud cover tonight should help keep a little more heat. Hope this is the last frost for the season.


See, this is unfathomable to us Texans. It's going to be 91 degrees in Austin today.
177. vis0

Quoting 169. BobHenson:



Thanks, bappit--I've notified administrators.
The following of course is just hearsay to those reading, but its being posted publicly since it seems when i'd send it to WxU nothing happens.

3 sites ~yr+ ago began to affect WxU
i sent comments in WxUs contact page but never received a reply.
Even commented with sar2401 how when stor,s formed near the SE or WxU was busy extra files appear in ones unasked-for list and he made a few comments that maybe China was behind this.  (a joke with some reality)
Via 2 programs i create (my use only) i can see who the real ip country is. i am usually followed by China, Korea(N) and some hackers.
The first two seem to think my inventions are real.
The hackers i figure use my credibility (i know programmers since 1990s)  as a way to get onto certain sites, not explain how.
WxU has several malwares every now and then usually are to redirect searches and ADs.
The searches i think is to try and break the spirit of those trying to show the public as to how aGW is real. 
Imagine a new member reads how aGW is real enters search words and the first 3 pages of google search has what appears as 40% pro aGw is real 60% aGw is pho.
Yet even the searches that SEEM to say aGW is for real leads / redirects one to skeptic$ pages.
One of the redirecting cookies is ADNXS.  Good luck on finding the rest, i'm taking a break  as posted on my zilly blog as have some important thing to take care of and webnet frustration only adds to the waste of time.
was pleasantly surprised this morning while reading the news. nothing on the severe weather.
179. MahFL
No hail bigger than 3.5 in was reported yesterday.
Pretty much yesterdays forecast by the SPC was a bust.
cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?
Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?

very very unlikely, given the warm anomalies globally. I mean it'd be really nice if it was cooling down but it's not.
182. elioe
Happy to hear there has been low impact from severe weather in the U.S.

Meanwhile, according to GFS, summer engulfs Finland (as well as most of the rest of Europe) in two weeks!



That would be approximately 10 degrees Celsius above average here.
Quoting 179. MahFL:

Pretty much yesterdays forecast by the SPC was a bust.
Was it? Let's go back to yesterday morning's SPC outlook:

Quoting the SPC:
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL TX NWD INTO SERN NEB...
Nailed it.
Quoting the SPC:
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM S CNTRL TX NNE INTO THE LWR MO AND MID-MS VLYS...
Nailed it,
Quoting the SPC:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS FROM S TX INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLYS...
Nailed it.
Quoting the SPC:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
Not quite to the coast, but severe storms did extend eastward into West Virginia. And the SPC did say "slight risk". So: nailed it.
Quoting the SPC:
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...
Nailed it.

People so often seem to forget that neither a "slight risk" or even a "marginal risk" are the same as "guaranteed to happen." They both mean "The potential exists for this to happen, but chances are better that it won't." And some also fail to read the fine print, it seems; even the current post downplayed the threat in several places: "The vertical wind structure of the atmosphere is not ideal for a widespread tornado outbreak," for instance, or "SPC's late-morning tornado outlook reflects the overall picture, with fairly low tornado probabilities spread across a large area," or "[I]ndividual storms should congeal within a few hours into one or more squall lines."

All of that happened.

I give the SPC an solid A on this one.
Good day

It's an 83, already feeling like 91, very overcast with 100% chance of rain on St. Thomas this morning.

Carnival is ramping up quickly, with the food fair today, J'Ouvert in the early morning hours tomorrow, the children's parade on Friday, and coming to a close with the adult parade on Saturday. Weather forecasts for all days is not looking good and really hoping the chances of rain ease up or there are going to be a lot of wet people dancing in the streets!

Hope all is well out there!

Lindy
Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?
Yes. Expect the ice age to begin tomorrow evening, or Thursday morning at the latest. And that persistent cold water area south of Greenland? It may just be from a leaky coolant valve on a fishing trawler, or perhaps a large gathering of magical undersea ice fairies. Either way, I wouldn't tax my brain by giving it another thought.
Good Morning; current tornado warning in LA and here is the overall current look and jet location; impressive in terms of the depth of the low and coverage across the entire mid-section of the US:

Here is the line with the tornado warning:
Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

And the reports from yesterday and from the last 3 hours: 
This morning:
last3hours Reports Graphic


Yesterday:

yesterday Reports Graphic
As discussed on TWC this morning, todays main threat is going to be a straight-line wind threat and Texas is currently getting the brunt based on the current reports:

South Plains sector loop

The dry wet for Kakadu National Park

By Sally Brooks

Kakadu National Park has suffered its driest wet season in more than two decades, according to a ranger. The arid conditions are affecting plants and animals, while climate experts predict some areas are set to break low rainfall records. Link
Good luck this morning in TX/LA/MS/AL as the system pushes east along the Gulf Coast and keep up posted (Gulf Bloggers):



Quoting 180. islander101010:

giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted.


Where is the cold water coming from? If from the depths of the ocean upwelling, well that is just even more freakin' terrifying than if it was the melt water from Greenland.

Do you do any actual thinking before you say things? The cold has to be coming from somewhere. You can't just run into a crowded building, scream FIRE! and then run out. Also if you are offended by me calling you to task on your ludicrous statement, I'm totally fine with that.
Here's the preliminary storm reports for yesterday overlaid on the SPC's 1630z outlook. Hardly looks like a bust. Keep in mind, the moderate risk was issued for the hail threat, not tornadoes. Also keep in mind for how many days this threat has been highlighted as well. It didn't pan out quite as modeled 5-6 days ago, but when does it ever?



I do think it's fair to say the PDS tornado watch was a bust. Those obviously bring with them a certain expectation which yesterday did not meet. In light of serious VBV issues, I'm not sure why it was issued, especially since it didn't really match the convective outlook. But all in all, given a complicated forecast, I think the SPC did quite well.
Quoting 143. hartfa:



Speaking as a resident of the Texas Panhandle, I can tell you that none of us consider it lucky when they are all in our neighborhood. And while we've had some major hits to the myriad of small and not so small towns that dot the panhandle every 15 or 20 miles, I will concede that we have been lucky and not had a confirmed tornado through either major metro since the 1970's. Though each year at least one tornado kisses our outskirts, resulting in a couple hundred thousand usually sleeping individuals, turning into a couple hundred thousand rather cranky individuals the next morning. We in the metro's are lucky. Several of the smaller towns take hit after hit with only a year or three in between.



My point was that we had a day with 10 tornadoes and there was only a Slight Risk that day. And yes, we were very lucky the tornadoes were out in the Texas Panhandle region where most of the area is open country.

It is much safer to have tornadoes in mostly open country where there is good visibility and the population is very spread out.

The further east you travel across the U.S. the more dangerous it becomes to have tornadoes. The population density increases and the number of towns and cities greatly increase. The chance of a tornado hitting a major city increases dramatically.

There will almost always be dangers no matter where a tornado touches down. But I don't think anyone would argue that it is much safer when tornadoes touch down across the western High Plains than across the more densely populated areas of the eastern U.S.






Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?

Capitalism is better than socialism, therefore, physics doesn't apply to climate, right?

Guess what? The isn't going to be "cooling down" anytime soon, if by cooling down you mean the climate. There will be wiggles --and 2017 will probably be cooler than 2016 and 2015-- but there will be no cool down barring something like asteroid impact or very large volcanic eruption. Even the latter will produce only a temporary cooling.
Perhaps this is what was meant by "bust": It didn't make the front page of CNN, therefore it wasn't significant. Seems those in the weather world are let down when the weather doesn't live up to manufactured hype. The anticipation is almost ALWAYS greater than the actual event. When the weather forecast says moderate risk of severe thunderstorms, it appears our brains immediately make the leap to either the Moore or Joplin EF5 tornados. Even when is says right in the wording from the national weather service that the chance for strong tornados is rather low.
This is only the start of tornado season and the models suggested a severe weather period, with a tornado threat, and it did materialize but we were lucky that there are only 5 confirmed tornadoes yesterday (but lots of wind and hail damage).

Point being that we have three months to go and it is good for SPC/NWS to keep the public on alert as to the start of tornado season and to be ready for the next several rounds as they come up:

U.S. Tornado Occurrence by Month

Quoting 185. Neapolitan:

Yes. Expect the ice age to begin tomorrow evening, or Thursday morning at the latest. And that persistent cold water area south of Greenland? It may just be from a leaky coolant valve on a fishing trawler, or perhaps a large gathering of magical undersea ice fairies. Either way, I wouldn't tax my brain by giving it another thought.


Extreme case of CAHP
Quoting 198. LouisPasteur:



Extreme case of CAHP
What is cahp?
Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?
No...Someone knocked Lohans drink overboard returning from Ireland...
201. elioe
Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?


Is AMO really even a meaningful phenomenon, or only a statistical artifact?

From the current Atlantic SST anomaly chart, I see primarily only a pattern that I would attribute to climate change. Cold anomaly between Iceland and Azores due to Greenlandic meltwaters deflecting the North Atlantic Drift. Sharp coastal cold anomaly near Mauritania, due to Azores High getting stronger and moving to the southeast, causing more upwelling. Cold anomaly extending west from there, as currents transport this excess upwelled water. Warm anomaly between these cold anomalies, as the deflection brings more Gulf Stream waters there, as well as diffuse northward movement of waters from the tropics.

El Niño is getting to a close, so in terms of heat, Earth has "cooled down" for the last year. Now there will likely be La Niña, during which lower average surface temperatures combine with ever-increasing greenhouse gas levels to inhibit spacebound radiation. Heat begins to pile up again, but La Niña causes that heat to accumulate below sea surface. So, cooling down, yes, for two years or so. Expect global temperature records to be broken next time in 2018 or 2019.
Quoting 180. islander101010:

cold AMO is actually happening. giant area of cooler than normal water is not due to greenland melting like many insisted. this could be the beginning of the earth cooling down?


No, it isn't. Thermal changes don't just magically happen. Basic thermodynamics.

In this case, several factors are at play including an increased influx of meltwater from Greenland. There has been a measurable slowdown in the thermohaline circulation as a result of these factors. Salinity anomalies also corroborate the increase in meltwater.

Keep in mind that this is just one small area of the globe. It has regional impacts but it isn't going to cause global cooling anymore than dropping an ice cube into a tub of boiling water is going to bring it all to room temperature. So far, the impact has been keeping climates in places like Scotland and Ireland a bit more "normal" compared to the changes the rest of the world is seeing.
Quoting 174. plantmoretrees:

Frosty this morning here in Acme, wa. 34° on the porch so probably 30-31° in the field. A few young walnuts and ash trees got a little nipped as did a couple potatoes but most things look fine. Some cloud cover tonight should help keep a little more heat. Hope this is the last frost for the season.

Off topic, but: How long will it take for the emerald ash borer to overtake your ash trees? All our ash trees died last year, some of them over 100 years old!
Good morning. The line of storms that came through the Austin Texas area were intense last night. Preliminary wind reports down the street from my neighborhood showed gusts approaching 70 MPH, and most areas received between three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain. The biggest threat for the area was large hail and thankfully, that did not materialize. It is a good thing when the worst issues are a few downed trees and power lines. Most everyone was aware of the fact that a significant system would come through and ample warning and preparation time was made available. I attribute this to the diligent and hard work of the meteorologists and public information officers at the NWS, SPC, and other various agencies. So hats off to all of those folks.
Quoting 185. Neapolitan:

Yes. Expect the ice age to begin tomorrow evening, or Thursday morning at the latest. And that persistent cold water area south of Greenland? It may just be from a leaky coolant valve on a fishing trawler, or perhaps a large gathering of magical undersea ice fairies. Either way, I wouldn't tax my brain by giving it another thought.
Magical undersea ice fairies taste like chicken. I think they messed that up in the Matrix.
Quoting 202. Xyrus2000:



No, it isn't. Thermal changes don't just magically happen. Basic thermodynamics.

In this case, several factors are at play including an increased influx of meltwater from Greenland. There has been a measurable slowdown in the thermohaline circulation as a result of these factors. Salinity anomalies also corroborate the increase in meltwater.

Keep in mind that this is just one small area of the globe. It has regional impacts but it isn't going to cause global cooling anymore than dropping an ice cube into a tub of boiling water is going to bring it all to room temperature. So far, the impact has been keeping climates in places like Scotland and Ireland a bit more "normal" compared to the changes the rest of the world is seeing.



Not according to NASA, "New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past."
Quoting 191. weathermanwannabe:

Good luck this morning in TX/LA/MS/AL as the system pushes east along the Gulf Coast and keep up posted (Gulf Bloggers):





Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for our area until 3PM CDT.

Quoting 206. VAbeachhurricanes:
Not according to NASA, "New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past."
That was a 2010 study, and though WUWT and Icecap and other nonsense-spewing sites keep quoting that study and only that study, subsequent studies (example: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation) have shown that the AMOC is, indeed, weakening.

Climate science moves fast. If ones only source of info is denialist websites, one is going to be left behind and woefully out of touch. One should try to keep up if possible; it's fascinating...
Quoting 206. VAbeachhurricanes:




Not according to NASA, "New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past."


I think that study was based on the 15 years from 1995 to 2010. There has been another study that has shown a development over the last 5 years 2010 to 2015 where it may be showing signs of slowing down, mainly from the cold pool that has grown in that same time frame south of Greenland.

2015 article from the washington post shows other links to NASA sources that explain

2010 article from NASA stating what VAbeachhurricanes was talking about.
Quoting 208. Neapolitan:

That was a 2010 study, and though WUWT and Icecap and other blather-spewing denialist sites keep quoting that study and only that study, subsequent studies (example: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation) have shown that the AMOC is, indeed, weakening.

Climate science moves fast. If your only source of info is denialist websites, you're going to be left behind and woefully out of touch. Try to keep up if you can; it's fascinating...


I got that directly from the NASA website not some crap site, so you can keep that condescending tone to yourself.
Quoting 206. VAbeachhurricanes:




Not according to NASA, "New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past."


That was from a 2010 paper that examines the period of 1993-2009, the Rahmstorf 2015 paper examined the 20th century period and does note that "since 1990, the AMOC seems to have partly recovered". Since then, Srokosz and Bryden 2015 found a 30% reduction in the AMOC in 2009-2010.
Quoting 212. Naga5000:



That was from a 2010 paper that examines the period of 1993-2009, the Rahmstorf 2015 paper examined the 20th century period and does note that "since 1990, the AMOC seems to have partly recovered". Since then, Srokosz and Bryden 2015 found a 30% reduction in the AMOC in 2009-2010.


I'd argue that many changes in current over very short period of time means that the flow of the AMOC in general is probably pretty dynamic and does not have really a "set current strength." IPCC even said that it is very unlikely the AMOC will go through a major rapid change.
Quoting 203. ChiThom:


Off topic, but: How long will it take for the emerald ash borer to overtake your ash trees? All our ash trees died last year, some of them over 100 years old!


That stinks. If I recall, my grandparents in Wisconsin had issues with those bugs in the early 90s. I'm not sure how long it would take them to decimate the trees as some trees may be prone to dying off quicker based on their age, stability and trunk diameter. I'm pretty sure that they can destroy a forest in five to ten years similar to the bark beetles on the West Coast. You might want to call a local arborist and see if they can look at any remaining trees and ask if they have advice on what you can do to salvage them.
Quoting 179. MahFL:

No hail bigger than 3.5 in was reported yesterday.
Pretty much yesterdays forecast by the SPC was a bust.
And if it was your car being bashed with 3.5 " hail, you would say otherwise.
AMO is important only in regards to hurricane activity...well not "only" as it can affect the sea level, but the cooling associated with it won t cool the globe much, particularly when it goes negative nearly at the same time  PDO enters the warm phase.
Quoting 213. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'd argue that many changes in current over very short period of time means that the flow of the AMOC in general is probably pretty dynamic and does not have really a "set current strength." IPCC even said that it is very unlikely the AMOC will go through a major rapid change.


A major rapid change not happening may be true, but this is what the IPCC actually said. "Overall, there is high confidence in predictions of a MOC slowdown during the 21st century, but low confidence in the scale of climate change that would cause an abrupt transition or the associated impacts (Meehl et al., 2007 Section 10.3.4). However, there is high confidence that the likelihood of large-scale and persistent MOC responses increases with the extent and rate of anthropogenic forcing (e.g., Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Stouffer and Manabe, 2003)."

The known variability within the AMOC is about 5 SV which is very broad. Unfortunately, this is one of those areas where direct measurements have been sparse until lately, and every paper produced is on the forefront of knowledge. The best guess now is that the AMOC is highly variable and past paleoclimate events point to the idea that the AMOC will not vanish and reestablishes itself along a different path. What that means for us isn't well known.
Man and his Fossil fuel usage is the Main Climate Forcing.

Period. And with CO2ppm @ 404.83 and climbing, it will remain the dominant forcing.

Semper Fi'


Try the Phish...it's weally,weally good today.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 838 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 820 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 814 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 746 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 740 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 717 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 708 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 647 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 645 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 643 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 639 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 633 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 615 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 608 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
I think we'll probably see the tornado count increase today as the NWS checks out some locations.
Damage near Ft. Worth.


Quoting 213. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'd argue that many changes in current over very short period of time means that the flow of the AMOC in general is probably pretty dynamic and does not have really a "set current strength." IPCC even said that it is very unlikely the AMOC will go through a major rapid change.
1) You seem to have changed your argument from the "AMOC isn't weakening, which is a sign that it's doing okay" to "the AMOC is weakening, which is a sign that it's doing okay." I suppose both could be correct, but can you please set me straight if I've misinterpreted what you've written?

2) The IPCC reports are thoroughly watered down by various governments that are beholden to special interests. Scare as parts of it are, they're nowhere nearly as scary as the scientific truth.
Quoting 217. Naga5000:



A major rapid change not happening may be true, but this is what the IPCC actually said. "Overall, there is high confidence in predictions of a MOC slowdown during the 21st century, but low confidence in the scale of climate change that would cause an abrupt transition or the associated impacts (Meehl et al., 2007 Section 10.3.4). However, there is high confidence that the likelihood of large-scale and persistent MOC responses increases with the extent and rate of anthropogenic forcing (e.g., Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Stouffer and Manabe, 2003)."

The known variability within the AMOC is about 5 SV which is very broad. Unfortunately, this is one of those areas where direct measurements have been sparse until lately, and every paper produced is on the forefront of knowledge. The best guess now is that the AMOC is highly variable and past paleoclimate events point to the idea that the AMOC will not vanish and reestablishes itself along a different path. What that means for us isn't well known.


I believe the current thinking is that if it redirects itself it will do so towards the equator basically eliminating the moderating effects it has for the North Atlantic and Islands such as Britain and the Faroe Islands. However the warming itself probably means these places will probably stay around the same temperature. It should not be devastating like it would be in a non-warming world.
Quoting 215. hydrus:

And if it was your car being bashed with 3.5 " hail, you would say otherwise.


We have "auto down players of the 3rd kind" that always chime in with their, er.."right message" don't they?

Never with any substance or substantiated info to back it up though...

Thats the real rub .
Quoting 222. VAbeachhurricanes:



I believe the current thinking is that if it redirects itself it will do so towards the equator basically eliminating the moderating effects it has for the North Atlantic and Islands such as Britain and the Faroe Islands. However the warming itself probably means these places will probably stay around the same temperature. It should not be devastating like it would be in a non-warming world.


I hope so. But I will note we chose a bad planet to run such a large scale experiment.
Quoting 221. Neapolitan:

1) You seem to have changed your argument from the "AMOC isn't weakening, which is a sign that it's doing okay" to "the AMOC is weakening, which is a sign that it's doing okay." I suppose both could be correct, but can you please set me straight if I've misinterpreted what you've written?

2) The IPCC reports are thoroughly watered down by various governments that are beholden to special interests. Scare as parts of it are, they're nowhere nearly as scary as the scientific truth.


My argument was, Xyrus posting something about the circulation and I remembered reading something different recently. So I googled it and first thing that popped up was the NASA article so I read and quoted it. Then Naga came back with links and information which I read and gave me more information on the topic.

You always catch more flies with honey Nea.

And its not that its doing okay, just weakening of it could be natural because it appears to be a highly variable current, so a decrease at the present time does not mean that its weakening and changing direction for good.


thankfully the cen. florida el nino tornado outbreak never materialized this February 2016. i think it was a night in 98 one of the scariest night storms ive ever experienced. long trackers but also had fierce winds well away from the tornadoes. thought we were in Kansas
The derp is as deep as the rainbow's curve suddenly.


I thought this picture of hail damage to the siding pretty remarkable. We had terrible damage to the side of our house in Oklahoma (scar marks everywhere) after a bad hail storm (along with broken windows on the north and west side of the house.).

But this is pretty much crazy. Baseball sized hail near Sharon, Oklahoma. Picture, April 27, 2016
Quoting 227. Patrap:



It would be nice if that rain held together and made it to NW Florida but you can already see the line weakening as it moves further East.
Quoting 176. galvestonhurricane:



See, this is unfathomable to us Texans. It's going to be 91 degrees in Austin today.


Haven't ever seen 91° at my house in Acme, wa…..yet. Last summer maxed out at 87° anything over 80° and us northwesterners start to melt :-)
Quoting 212. Naga5000:



That was from a 2010 paper that examines the period of 1993-2009, the Rahmstorf 2015 paper examined the 20th century period and does note that "since 1990, the AMOC seems to have partly recovered". Since then, Srokosz and Bryden 2015 found a 30% reduction in the AMOC in 2009-2010.
Looking for data on the AMOC I stumbled upon the US CLIVER website and found some really interesting science-based articles including: AMOC its role in climate and its mechanisms variability

From the article: "...Buoyancy anomalies on the (AMOC's) western boundary are key to decadal AMOC variability, but the origin of these buoyancy anomalies and how they are communicated meridionally is not clear...."



Article Webpage Link
Quoting 233. JNFlori30A:

Looking for data on the AMOC I stumbled upon the US CLIVER website and found some really interesting science-based articles including: AMOC its role in climate and its mechanisms variability

From the article: "...Buoyancy anomalies on the (AMOC's) western boundary are key to decadal AMOC variability, but the origin of these buoyancy anomalies and how they are communicated meridionally is not clear...."



Article Webpage Link


Thanks for the link. This is one of the programs I was talking that has begun direct measurements of the AMOC to better understand how it works and what impact we have on it and it has on us. This is why it's so important to keep research funding going for climate, while we now the basic premise of warming and human induced climate change, there are still a lot of frontiers to explore.
Quoting 223. Patrap:



We have "auto down players of the 3rd kind" that always chime in with their, er.."right message" don't they?

Never with any substance or substantiated info to back it up though...

Thats the real rub .
Yep..many years ago I saw a dude on the tube saying that hail storms were for the most part not really that dangerous..Later that afternoon he was caught about 100 yards from his car, being popped with golfball size hail, maybe even some egg size...It was funny listening to him scream and whine all the way back to his car...All recorded on his phone...I laughed so hard my eyes were wet...:)
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     ABERDEEN SD - KABR 1015 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 1015 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
TORNADO WARNING     RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 915 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016
Sometimes hydrus, Karma is instant.
Friday and then on Saturday another chance for severe weather across the Southern Plains
Not to change the topic but have you guys seen what's going on in Venezuela? Rolling blackouts apparently due to El Niño induced drought on a hydro dam. Politics ensues of course but it is extremely dry in these parts. Really hoping for a climate shift soon. No one wants hurricanes but since about 2 years ago we used to get rain.
Quoting 239. 19N81W:

Not to change the topic but have you guys seen what's going on in Venezuela? Rolling blackouts apparently due to El Niño induced drought on a hydro dam. Politics ensues of course but it is extremely dry in these parts. Really hoping for a climate shift soon. No one wants hurricanes but since about 2 years ago we used to get rain.


There are currently extreme droughts and heat waves in many other regions, including south east Asia, India and Pakistan, a large part of south and east Africa, and parts of Australia. At the same time, there has been massive flash flooding in the Arabian peninsula, and the west coast of South America, to name just a few I'm aware of.

Globally, 2016 will beat the 2015 temperature record by a massive margin, so there could be many similar extreme events as the year progresses, even without El Nino.
Quoting 238. Sfloridacat5:

Friday and then on Saturday another chance for severe weather across the Southern Plains



We're glad we are getting this squall line today in NOLA as tomorrow begins the 2nd weekend of Jazz Fest.

We can always use the rains in the Lower Atchafalaya Basin as it went thru this am as its good for the rice and Crawfish farmers.

Here is Se. La. the Spring rains have been good as most of the flooding was N of Lake P earlier in March.

40% chance of Rain Sunday but I'm going to see Neil Young so it will most likely be clear,Humid and torrid.

Neil with Crazy Horse from Jazz Fest 2009.









The GFS isn't giving Dallas much of a break.
I want the positive AMO era to come back, I prefer AMO. Does this mean we won't see an active hurricane season in the Aflantic again until the 2030s/2040s?
244. JRRP7
Quoting 185. Neapolitan:

Yes. Expect the ice age to begin tomorrow evening, or Thursday morning at the latest. And that persistent cold water area south of Greenland? It may just be from a leaky coolant valve on a fishing trawler, or perhaps a large gathering of magical undersea ice fairies. Either way, I wouldn't tax my brain by giving it another thought.


I can't understand why no one reveals the true cause of El Nino's massive warming.. spilled fast food coffee (in its typical plasma state) from cruise ships. I post about this every April 1.
Quoting 243. HurricaneFan:

I want the positive AMO era to come back, I prefer AMO. Does this mean we won't see an active hurricane season in the Aflantic again until the 2030s/2040s?


As an eastern seaboard resident I can only hope for such a reprieve.
5 years have already come and gone since the 2011 Super Outbreak, the largest tornado event in United States history. Spanning from April 25 to April 28, the outbreak produced an incredible 363 tornadoes, including 219 on April 27 alone. An insane thermodynamic and kinetic environment comparable to only one other event in the past (April 3-4, 1974) spawned an unusual number of strong tornadoes, including 49 EF2s, 22 EF3s, 11 EF4s, and 4 EF5s. When the outbreak was concluded, over 348 fatalities and 2,200 injuries had been recorded, while monetary damage totaled up to $11 billion (2011 USD). From the perspective of a storm tracker, another outbreak like this would be incredible. From a human perspective, I hope it never happens again.

Quoting 247. TropicalAnalystwx13:

5 years have already come and gone since the 2011 Super Outbreak, the largest tornado event in United States history. Spanning from April 25 to April 28, the outbreak produced an incredible 363 tornadoes, including 219 on April 27 alone. An insane thermodynamic and kinetic environment comparable to only one other event in the past (April 3-4, 1974) spawned an unusual number of strong tornadoes, including 49 EF2s, 22 EF3s, 11 EF4s, and 4 EF5s. When the outbreak was concluded, over 348 fatalities and 2,200 injuries had been recorded, while monetary damage totaled up to $11 billion (2011 USD). From the perspective of a storm tracker, another outbreak like this would be incredible. From a human perspective, I hope it never happens again.




Dr. Masters' Blog after the event.
Link
Quoting 233. JNFlori30A:

Looking for data on the AMOC I stumbled upon the US CLIVER website and found some really interesting science-based articles including: AMOC its role in climate and its mechanisms variability

From the article: "...Buoyancy anomalies on the (AMOC's) western boundary are key to decadal AMOC variability, but the origin of these buoyancy anomalies and how they are communicated meridionally is not clear...."



Article Webpage Link
My first thought is that possibly a source of buoyancy anomalies along the Western boundary of the Gulf Stream would be caused by fresh water discharge along the North American East coast, where there are several large rivers draining the East side of the Eastern Continental Divide. This is just about the wettest region of North America, and it would be interesting to see what a comparison of the rainfall over the area with the buoyancy anomalies, time-wise, would reveal. It could be that an increase in rain in that region could add to other factors to inhibit the AMOC.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
252. bwi
I think it's hard for people to realize the scale impacts of global warming. We're a water planet, folks, and our average temperature in large areas is near the boundary where water freezes and melts! Remember, physics just doesn't care about our ideologies, beliefs, opinions or preferences. Physics just is.

Here's a physics just is thing to consider:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/0 9/melting-ice-sheets-changing-the-way-the-earth-wo bbles-on-its-axis-says-nasa

Global warming is changing the way the Earth wobbles on its polar axis, a new Nasa study has found.

Melting ice sheets, especially in Greenland, are changing the distribution of weight on Earth. And that has caused both the North Pole and the wobble, which is called polar motion, to change course, according to a study published on Friday in the journal Science Advances.

Original Paper is published here

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/4/e15016 93

Abstract
Earth’s spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003–2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate.

 The rain chances I mentioned yesterday have pretty much vanished. Guess I'll put that sandbag away...
Quoting 214. calkevin77:



That stinks. If I recall, my grandparents in Wisconsin had issues with those bugs in the early 90s. I'm not sure how long it would take them to decimate the trees as some trees may be prone to dying off quicker based on their age, stability and trunk diameter. I'm pretty sure that they can destroy a forest in five to ten years similar to the bark beetles on the West Coast. You might want to call a local arborist and see if they can look at any remaining trees and ask if they have advice on what you can do to salvage them.

Thanks calkevin77. That rubicon has been passed. They haven't been only decimated... they're almost all dead! The county had a transport ban on all ash tree lumber and firewood, thinking that the emerald ash borer larvae would be spread around further if anyone carried the logs to new, uninfested sites. That transport ban was lifted in our DuPage county last year when it was determined that all the ash trees were already infested. These bugs first appeared here eight or nine years ago, and we had the trees treated each year to try to save them, but no such luck. The chemicals that they were using are the same ones that can cause bee colony collapse (neo-nicotinoids), so good riddance to those chemicals. Here, the bees have been in decline for years, but this year I think I see an increase in bees around the cherry trees. Or am I just imagining that?
By the way, near Detroit, Michigan, some 250 miles east, the ash trees all died ten years ago from the ash borer.
Quoting 254. ChiThom:


Thanks calkevin77. That rubicon has been passed. They haven't been only decimated... they're almost all dead! The county had a transport ban on all ash tree lumber and firewood, thinking that the emerald ash borer larvae would be spread around further if anyone carried the logs to new, uninfested sites. That transport ban was lifted in our DuPage county last year when it was determined that all the ash trees were already infested. These bugs first appeared here eight or nine years ago, and we had the trees treated each year to try to save them, but no such luck. The chemicals that they were using are the same ones that can cause bee colony collapse (neo-nicotinoids), so good riddance to those chemicals. Here, the bees have been in decline for years, but this year I think I see an increase in bees around the cherry trees. Or am I just imagining that?
By the way, near Detroit, Michigan, some 250 miles east, the ash trees all died ten years ago from the ash borer.


The scale at which these bugs have ravaged the trees is mind blowing. In California, the bark beetle infestation resulted in 800K acres worth of pine trees being killed up and down most of the Sierra range. The result has been additional timber that is highly combustible and a contributor to the drought-enhanced fire danger. The continuous warmer than average winters out there resulted in explosive growth in beetle population statewide as one of the primary population limiting factors is below freezing temps. As far as the emerald ash borer, wasn't there an attempt to introduce an insect that would attack the borer and supposedly not impact the ecosystem? I'm somewhat skeptical of biological control factors like that and any unforeseen adverse outcome and limited efficacy. A similar approach has been contemplated here in Texas to combat fire ants but has not proven worthwhile.
Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:



As an eastern seaboard resident I can only hope for such a reprieve.

Actually -AMO may be worse for east coast landfalls.
Now that I'm nicely settled in at my new place, life is calming down. I finally have the time to read not only the blog, but the comments also!

Having said that, I'm very happy that today is a reasonably "normal" day in Seattle. It's currently 54F, and cloudy at noon. Forecast high of 61F. Now that it's cooler, I'm able to really appreciate just how insanely hot last week was. It was 89F in Seattle last Monday. Warmer than LA and Pheonix. Needless to say, it shattered the previous record for the date, as well as hottest temperature for month of April. What is seriously stunning, is to note that the temperature anomaly of 31 degrees, broke the record for the single greatest anomaly on record for Seattle for any date in any year. Tuesday and Wednesday were cooler, but still in the 80s. It breaks the record for most consecutive days in April over 80F, with three (also most days of 75F). We were still breaking record high temperatures for the date last Friday, when a temp of 72F broke the record of 69F from 2012. Last week would have been considered a heatwave in August.

While a repeat of this extreme heat isn't likely anytime soon, the forecast isn't exactly full of rain. In fact, next Monday is forecast for 72F and sun. It's supposed to be rainy with a high around 59F. Given the fact that we just ended the wettest winter in Seattle history, most aren't missing the rain so much as they are disliking this burning ball of fire in the sky ad it's heat related effects.... I'll just say that sun glare is a serious issue when you drive across a floating bridge on a lake, and hot weather absolutely stinks when you have to wear AFO's!

Quoting 245. georgevandenberghe:
I can't understand why no one reveals the true cause of El Nino's massive warming.. spilled fast food coffee (in its typical plasma state) from cruise ships. I post about this every April 1.
I'm not picking on you George, but your comment seems like an appropriate starting point.

Yes, the effects of CO2 pollution are real. The horror of the interwebitudes is real, too. Which is more important?

I see lots of energy on the blog about the latter issue, the trolls, their idiocy, etc. I don't see much energy on how we are going to move forward on the other thing, you know, the effects of CO2 pollution. As long as we do not speak to the more important issue, we are just playing along with the trolls.
Quoting 255. calkevin77:



The scale at which these bugs have ravaged the trees is mind blowing. In California, the bark beetle infestation resulted in 800K acres worth of pine trees being killed up and down most of the Sierra range. The result has been additional timber that is highly combustible and a contributor to the drought-enhanced fire danger. The continuous warmer than average winters out there resulted in explosive growth in beetle population statewide as one of the primary population limiting factors is below freezing temps. As far as the emerald ash borer, wasn't there an attempt to introduce an insect that would attack the borer and supposedly not impact the ecosystem? I'm somewhat skeptical of biological control factors like that and any unforeseen adverse outcome and limited efficacy. A similar approach has been contemplated here in Texas to combat fire ants but has not proven worthwhile.


The beetle is a huge Canadian and Alaskan concern. And with the warmer Temps here there is no stopping their eventual migration to the north.

As far as co2. We are starting to make changes. More people work in solar than oil extraction. More high mpg and battery cars are coming out. Coal plants are being decommissioned and being replaced with cleaner burning plants.
Anyone have any longer runs for the Caribbean and rain chances?