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Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters
TS Alberto Surfer
TS Alberto Surfer
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
Alberto feederband
Alberto feederband
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms

Hurricane Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.


6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.
Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.
Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.


Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders



Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

this surely is something we have to watch very closely come tomorrow, we wished for rain..now we are going to get it..even if its only 3 -4 inches, thats alot in one day huh..
Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.


Right!?
I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!


507. NEFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.



Seriously? Where are you getting 6"? Is this just another attempt to hype a situation in which you live Jeff, Rasta? Note your source, and the source inside your head does not count.
508. NYX
Quoting emcf30:


Trust me, you will get all the warnings from the NWS if they are warranted.


Oh, no doubt about that. But the joke in SF is we often get the warning after the storm has past.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.

oh boy
ever hear of GeoMagnetic reversals?...................Link
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.



Storm of the Centuryesque?
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link
Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.


6" is my prediction as it seems when we get this type of systems coming across the Gulf we tend to get a lot more rain than forecasted due to the deep tropical moisture that has moved in. For instance last year same type of set up the end of last March CPC had us under 2 to 3" across FL and we in C FL in some cases had over a foot of rain. I had 6.63" that day and I think Jedkins said he had between 5 & 9 inches and nearly a foot over the 3 day span. So my point is these Gulf systems usually end up giving us a lot more than what's actually predicted.
new one for south Florida.............................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210600-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS MAINLY THIS MORNING...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

WIND: ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

FLOODING: ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
FORECAST, CONDITIONS COULD BE MOST FAVORABLE LATER ON SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. FORECAST DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER REFINED, SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES
CITY AS WATER LEVEL REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE REGULAR HIGH
TIDE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
..one can almost taste da doom
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."

This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.

As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..

The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!




Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!


this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders





Best post of the day. Thanks Rita!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.



Good morning Jeff,

More importantly, if you look at the upper left corner of your image this is an upper level system that once it reaches the Gulf Coast, should cut off and then develop into a broad surface cold core low. ( Non Tropical ) The NWS still thinks the severe threat here in CFl will be low and will remain further South. Some decent rain for most but nothing that should cause the rivers and lake to over fill where people will be boating in the streets of CFL. There will be some heavy pockets for sure. I think the convection you see building in the GOF is an entirely completely different entity altogether.
Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom
LOLOLOL i was thinking the same thing this morning pat lol
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.
LinkDamaging winds?...how does That happen?
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link



Alright fair enough, I'll admit I assumed the AMS approval required you to have a MET degree.
Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom


Good morning Pat!
Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.


????????????
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Storm of the Centuryesque?



Highly doubt to that degree but the potential exists for a similar event. Mainly posting the image for a visual representation of what we may see this weekend.
..morn 2K, LargoFl'
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.


Sure does. If I get a chance to maybe I can finally submit some severe weather reports as a spotter... It's quite funny that right after I got certified as a trained spotter, the area has one of the dryest and nicest periods of weather in memory...
Quoting Patrap:
..morn 2K, LargoFl'


Is hot by you guys too?
The model guidance shows the front pushing thru NOLA before the cyclogenesis occurs, so we should only get strong winds behind it as it scoots eastward Sat-Sunday.


Short term...


Cold front will continue to move eastward toward the area
today...and across the area overnight. Most model solutions have
delayed the upper low cutting off until the daytime hours on
Saturday...which will have the effect of delaying the development
of a strong surface low along the cold front until after the front
passes to the east of the area. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in the
forecast for overnight into Saturday...with values being lower
than in previous forecasts. Will also note that latest trends
indicate current forecast probability of precipitation may still be too high. Thunder will
be very limited with this system...and mainly confined to the
overnight hours tonight. Precipitation will move out of the area
by sunset Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will move into the
area Saturday afternoon through Sunday as low pressure gets
cranked up over the eastern Gulf. Temperatures today will remain
several degrees above normal...but the cold front and low pressure
will bring cooler weather for several days. Expect below normal
temperatures...which we have not seen much of in the last 2
months...for Saturday and Sunday. 35
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is hot by you guys too?
good morning pat, yes and very humid
Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?


tomorrow 18Z, already have my row boat tuned up.
Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!
Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.
for our Boaters and fishermen................................
GMZ870-873-876-202115-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

SUNDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

540. 7544
hmm local news saying up to 60 mph winds and strong severe storms for sf this weekend sounds ;like a ts watch lol . but you never know stranger things have happen in the tropics still intersting tho
12Z NAM split it's previous tracks over Florida, little lower in pressure.


Quoting RitaEvac:


????????????
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...
Be sure to pass the info on Bad weather to those who may not know its coming.


The elderly, shut-ins, etc.

Be pro-active.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!


With summer heat approaching, that is not good. In fact when you don't get spring rains, that is usually a sign of things to come. It could get worse there, so don't just think rains are gonna turn on like a switch
Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.
Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.


You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.
Some decent blocking over Greenland..
Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.
I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...

I can't speak for anyone else, but taken out of context, my comments are definitely sexist. Taken in context, and especially with what I just posted a few moments ago... I don't see them as sexist in any way, just how the networks operate.
Quoting RitaEvac:


You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.

I know you do. Its everyone else that I'm explaining for. :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...


Exactly. That's my point.
Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.


We may not even get 6" was just saying from experience that has been the case with many of these Gulf storms. It does though look we are turing the corner with this event. As some of the long rain models bring in another cut off feature from TX to FL. So TX across the Gulf Coast & FL could really be settling in a wet pattern down the road something to watch. Even the guy near Austin just hang in there buddy more rain is coming for you guys to although you may have to wait 7 to 10 days.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...


Maybe it's the company then, all the info is public on the web. Pics, etc...as far as what is said, that's life, people talk, whether you, me, anyone like it or not, called freedom of speech.
It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.


Hi Nea the worst of the severe could be down by you guys tomorrow so stay safe buddy!
Dew points over Florida now.Dewpoints over Florida tomorrow night.
Quoting hydrus:
Some decent blocking over Greenland..
Some low over Fl!
Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.



I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.
Theta-E now...( at two meters )Theta tomorrow night.
Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?

Dewpoint Temperature


Relative Humidity


CAPE

Live webcam via Wunderground of fresh snow on the ground in east-central Wisconsin. Up to 3" fell in a narrow swath overnight.

Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.
roflmao. Quote of the day
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Some low over Fl!
Yes..Low in 48 hours..
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
roflmao. Quote of the day


lol
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.
Weak warm front in Gulf...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?



bust the cap
I take that back, it was more like a bull's eye of snow (from NWS Green Bay's co-op observers):

Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.


Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.
One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)



That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.


BTW, this doesn't mean I'm panicking and saying a moderate risk needs to be added for us and this will be a deadly out break, I'm just saying that people should be aware that it is possible for there to be a higher severe threat for us than the current model consensus suggests. If the low tracks further north the period of time for destabilization will be longer and severe risk higher. There are some pretty impressive out puts by the models but I will stress that i don't see anything suggesting this will be like a big spring outbreak in the southern plains. I don't see evidence to support that. I do certainly see plenty of evidence to support at least a chance of severe though. You can't ignore the cold pocket aloft that will be moving over head, impressive jet energy, good upper divergence, and impressive helicity.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.
Quoting hydrus:
One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..


Kinda looks like an Omega Block.(I know it isn't)
Quoting Jedkins01:



That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.
If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.
Quoting jeffs713:

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.


lmao, it was embarrassing. He kept talking over Neil Frank and Neil was being cut off and was looking aggravated.
Quoting sunlinepr:

Why hello there, Pineapple Express.
Day 2

Excerpt:

...CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW
PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND/SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL.



Is that in the Pressolinas?
Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-202300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM
CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...
ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST
COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...
NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY
FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND
INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT
WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE
THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY
COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN
TX radar time, storms are cranking up
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!


Good, take some more rain as we will hit a dry streak all the way into next week
Quoting jeffs713:

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?

She has an AMS seal of approval.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.


Your insight is both unusual and, in my opinion, spot on.

Note too that Florida weather dynamics with regard to tornado potential during severe weather outbreaks is fertile ground for a PHd thesis in meteorology.
This is because there may well still be a lot of undiscovered territory there.

It may be just a hunch on my part but it seems to me that the presence of that big Gulf of Mexico is the key link in the chain when it comes to how (relatively) poorly understood the large-scale severe weather outbreaks are in this area. And they don't always have to be so large in scale.

Looking back to April of 1966, when an EF-4 tornado raked across the state from Pinellas County to Brevard County, taking about 11 lives in the process and millions of dollars of property losses, it was not an especially impressive system, if I am recalling it accurately. But clearly there was something in the dynamics that set up over Central Florida on that day which caused such a destructive system to form. My guess is that the helicity was likely the poorly understood factor in that case. The forecast for that day did not indicate a severe weather risk, I believe.

Now one may think that this is understandable in that it was 1966 and so much less was known about the specifics of atmospheric phenomena back then in comparison with today. I would agree with that, in a general sense. On the other hand, when it comes to our little neck of the woods, there is still much yet to learn, I strongly suspect.

One more thing... Imagine if the events of April 4, 1966 were to take place again, in precisely the same area! The devastation from what would be a relatively isolated outbreak could be catastrophic in scale, given the changes in population that have occurred here since then. That storm passed right over the USF campus, for instance.

Food for thought?
Multi TS warnings near Lufkin now
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.
Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She has an AMS seal of approval.

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1046 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

Quoting jeffs713:

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "

I'm not saying it makes her a great forecaster, but clearly she is at least a capable one. I just don't like how many of us who are not professionals (and if you are I apologize) are calling her out when we have no right to.
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:

Quoting Tribucanes:
Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?

Really? My "choice of targets" was the discussion already happening on the blog. If the person brought up was another met without a degree that was male, I'd be criticizing them, too.

I've been judged by just a few facts many times. And I didn't enjoy it, either. That said, I'm making a PERSONAL judgement based on the facts available to me. If you have something disputing those facts, show them. I'd love to see them and be proven wrong.

If you are trying to troll me, congrats, you got me riled up. Not because you are calling me out, per se, but because you are accusing me of being sexist, which could not be further from the mark. Criticizing what I have to say is one thing, and is something you are entitled to. Criticizing me as a person is another thing entirely, and crosses a line at which I take great offense.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:


I'm just glad we're finally going to get some good rain up here out of this storm.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

That must be ahead of the front from the SW flow we have been having coming off the warm gulf.
Storms are really increasing across Texas!

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.



I agree, that is what I am thinking will happen. I also stick with that rainfall has the potential to be quite a bit higher in some spots than the models are expecting. I say this mainly because actual PWAT's and dew points frequently exceed model out puts in Central and South Florida for rain events. Of course it takes a lot more for heavy rain than just high moisture, which will ultimately depend on the evolution of our Low.

But still, that's why I mention potential. We rarely get uniform QPF in Florida rainfall events even with low pressure systems. Generally some places get less than expected while others end up getting much more. Its due to the fact that models have a hard time forecasting the influences of low level features which dominate weather the further you get into the tropics. There are frequently low level, localized features that affect weather events in Florida that often go completely unnoticed by models. Its just really hard to integrate that sort of data. Weather forecasting here is very intense because of its difficulty, which also makes it so exciting :)
Come tonight and morning the situ will show itself as we can see some signs already in the Mid Gulf.

Note the frontal storms in Texas too.





3 km helicity map at 36 hours..NAM.. Helicity map in 84 hours..
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


I think the Low will take a track similar to the 12z NAM, South of Ocala, FL.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:



down to 1000mb this run, further N.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not saying it makes her a great forecaster, but clearly she is at least a capable one. I just don't like how many of us who are not professionals (and if you are I apologize) are calling her out when we have no right to.


+10000000000000..this blog has become somewhat bully lately
Timing with the GFS has come in line more with the ECMWF.
Looks like fun:
TODAY'S FUKUSHIMA UPDATE

MSNBC: Fukushima radiation “much higher than expected” says biologist — Negative effects to happen quicker than at Chernobyl… and be worse

Scientists are focusing on Japan’s Fukushima area after a study published this week found an alarming development at another nuclear disaster site — Chernobyl.
The proportion of female birds has fallen off since the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, the study found [...]
[Study co-author Tim Mousseau, a University of South Carolina biologist is] expecting even worse results at Fukushima.



Fukushima Investigation: “Within one day complete meltdown and melt through occurred” — “There is no way that gov’t did not know this”- VIDEO


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1pHimEuNpM&featur e=player_embedded#!


Gundersen: Cesium-134 and -137 detected in Southern California pollen sample — “When you find them both together that’s a Fukushima signature” (VIDEO)
Published: April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm ET


Model Diagnostic Discussion

Excerpts:

...WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS ENERGETIC IMPULSE COMPARABLY UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF DAY 2...WHEN THE NAM BEGINS TO DRAW THE WAVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS AND GFS PARALLEL ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
INCORPORATION OF THE WAVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
WILL RELY ON THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE ECMWF...BOLSTERED BY THE
CONSISTENCY OF ITS SOLUTION.



...COMPOSITE VORTEX BOMBING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM IS DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE ECMWF WITH THE MATURE
CYCLONE. THE GFS IS NORTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HERE AGAIN...WILL RELY ON THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


Best to just split the difference from the last three model runs. That would place the low center moving onshore around Crystal River, FL, some 60NM north of Tampa Bay.

The GFS will probably do a little more shifting too before all is said and done.
Dr. Greg Forbes..updated and added some areas..

Friday April 20

AR south - 2
LA west, central - 2
MS west-central - 2
TX east of a line from Texarkana to Laredo - 2
Other areas - 1 or less

Saturday April 21
AL extreme southeast - less than 2
DE south - less than 2
FL peninsula - 4
FL panhandle - 2 or less
GA central, south - less than 2
MD southeast - less than 2
NC - less than 2
SC - less than 2
VA south-central, southeast - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less
Quoting ncstorm:
Dr. Greg Forbes..updated and added some areas..

Friday April 20

AR south - 2
LA west, central - 2
MS west-central - 2
TX east of a line from Texarkana to Laredo - 2
Other areas - 1 or less

Saturday April 21
AL extreme southeast - less than 2
DE south - less than 2
FL peninsula - 4
FL panhandle - 2 or less
GA central, south - less than 2
MD southeast - less than 2
NC - less than 2
SC - less than 2
VA south-central, southeast - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


I assume those are his TOR-CON values?

If so, he'll probably wind up increasing the ones over parts of the FL peninsula in his outlook by tomorrow.
Quoting LargoFl:
interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?


Not much actually. Anyone using a compass would be SOL. Even with a weakened magnetic field, it is still more than enough to deflect the solar wind and most high energy particles. The smallest the Earth's magnetic field has ever been according to geological records is approximately 3 Earth radii. And even if the magnetic field completely collapsed (which has never and never will happen as long as we have a molten core in motion), our thick atmosphere would be more than sufficient shield until the field became re-established.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I assume those are his TOR-CON values?

If so, he'll probably wind up increasing the ones over parts of the FL peninsula in his outlook by tomorrow.


Yes, its his Torcon Index
Since the NWS has been so far off on these maps for SE Texas, maybe this time it will work out the other way :D

Quoting FLWaterFront:


Best to just split the difference from the last three model runs. That would place the low center moving onshore around Crystal River, FL, some 60NM north of Tampa Bay.

The GFS will probably do a little more shifting too before all is said and done.



Yeah I'm thinking the low will track across the State between Brooksville to Ocala.


That link iz on the ESL by LSU WAVCIS page
Quoting Patrap:


That link iz on the ESL by LSU WAVCIS page
Gracias.
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

..click image for Loop.

ZOOM is available

It keeps going and going and going... After another 18hour hiatus, a new ATCF Update
31.3n58.2w 31.0n57.4w 30.7n56.8w 30.3n56.3w 29.6n55.5w 29.4n54.3w 29.1n52.9w 29.3n51.0w
91L is heading slightly north of Eastward, and the previous update's prediction models

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- SJU is PuertoRico -- BDA is Bermuda
Showers and storms are starting to pop all over the peninsula
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I'm thinking the low will track across the State between Brooksville to Ocala.


I have the low tracking just south of the big bend, north of Tampa, exiting Jacksonville.
Quoting reedzone:


I have the low tracking just south of the big bend, north of Tampa, exiting Jacksonville.
does that put tampa bay in the heavy wind and rain section if the low moves in north of us??
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Showers and storms are starting to pop all over the peninsula
alot of couds over head, moving to the northeast i'd say, not moving very fast though, and extremely humid here right now
Quoting LargoFl:
does that put tampa bay in the heavy wind and rain section if the low moves in north of us??


I have a decent severe weather threat Tampa to St. Augustine, southward. Would not surprise me at the most to see a 30% prob going across the central part of Florida. Since the Low is forecast to move further north, deepening more, this should connect with the upper level disturbance. Looks like we're heading back to what we were thinking Wednesday. Probably not a Moderate Risk, but 30% is rare down here.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC005-347-201745-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0117.120420T1651Z-120420T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUFKIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGTON AND ETOILE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 9489 3146 9468 3145 9432 3121 9433
3120 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 258DEG 21KT 3134 9475

$$

15
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.


Erm...no. The solar poles shift quite frequently with no effect on Earth. Well, more accurately, the sun has many poles. On top of that, large intense magnetic disturbances happen all over the sun that are far more powerful.

The strength of a magnetic field falls off with quite rapidly with distance. By the time you reach Earth's orbit, the field strength is 5 nano-Teslas. The strength of the Earth's magnetic field at the surface is about 50 micro-Teslas, or about 10,000 times stronger. In order to affect the Earth's magnetic field, the solar variation would need to affect the dynamics governing the Earth's core. That isn't going to happen with a 5 nano-Tesla field strength (a refrigerator magnet is a million times stronger than the sun's magnetic field at this distance).

In fact, Earth receives much more of a magnetic shock for coronal mass ejections which compress the Earth's magnetic field, and even those don't flip the poles.
Looks like we may get more rain today and tonight than forecasted.
Quoting Grothar:


I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.


:D

Magnetic pole reversals don't flip the planet, though that would certainly cause some interesting effects.
Quoting reedzone:


I have a decent severe weather threat Tampa to St. Augustine, southward. Would not surprise me at the most to see a 30% prob going across the central part of Florida. Since the Low is forecast to move further north, deepening more, this should connect with the upper level disturbance. Looks like we're heading back to what we were thinking Wednesday. Probably not a Moderate Risk, but 30% is rare down here.
ok we'll see what happens, some good rain coming huh, we can sure use it

Today...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the morning...then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s near the coast and in the upper 80s inland. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s near the coast and in the mid 60s inland. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and in the lower 80s inland. South winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night...Cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 60s near the coast and in the mid 60s inland. South winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and in the lower 80s inland. Southwest winds around 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night Through Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s near the coast and in the mid 50s inland. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and around 80 inland.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s near the coast and in the mid 80s inland.




Quoting LargoFl:
how would that affect us weather wise? and while its happening..and i find this amazing..would we feel it? ..


The Earth is a big gyroscope. In order to "flip" the planet, it would require a rather large amount of angular momentum to be first built up and then removed from the system.

So yes, it wouldn't be something one would miss.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The Earth is a big gyroscope. In order to "flip" the planet, it would require a rather large amount of angular momentum to be first built up and then removed from the system.

So yes, it wouldn't be something one would miss.
i could not imagine, if we flipped and north america was now where australia is..imagine..the oceans, what waves would be produced, let alone the earthquakes etc...devastation beyond belief i would think.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are conflicting theories as to how hot the earth's interior is; estimates range from roughly 7500F up to 13000F. (And now when someone uses the phrase "It's hot as hell" on, say, an August day, you can correct them in the most pedantic way possible.)


Ooops. Just realized I used an F when instead of a C for the core temperature. I need my morning caffeine before I post apparently. :D

But yeah, we have no way to directly observe the core, but we do have an idea of the conditions at the core as well as ways to model the conditions. It's a fairly broad range of temepratures, but "freakin' hot" covers it. :)
They might have to up the chances of severe storms (slightly) over central and southern Florida for Saturday.
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes.
Good Afternoon. Just making a comment that I am always amazed (regardless of the depth or ultimate trajectory of this one) at how good some of the models are forecasting the development of these "Gulf" lows this time of the year. I always keep an eye on the water vapor loops for the first real "sign" of the developing low to get a better picture of the depth and so forth as it progresses and deepens. So far, the ingredients are coming together over Central Texas on the loops but the actual low has not materialized yet (but it will between now and tomorrow morning on the loops).

I just hope it brings lots of rain and hope that any severe weather will remain at a minimum. I was visiting a friend just North of Orlando in April 1993 when the big "no name" storm/low came through overnight. Lot's of tornadoes, hail, trees down and his 5 acre lot was a wreck the next morning (chickens walking around everywhere cause the coops had been flipped by the winds). This will not be anywhere near that incredible system that wrecked havoc all the way up the Eastern Seaboard but I will always remember that April one and us chasing chickens in the yard the next day........... :)


WUUS54 KSHV 201651
SVRSHV
TXC005-347-201745-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0117.120420T1651Z-120420T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUFKIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGTON AND ETOILE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3142 9489 3146 9468 3145 9432 3121 9433
3120 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 258DEG 21KT 3134 9475



15



Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes, and add a slight risk for the DELMARVA as well.
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No

B- They're very cautious at the SPC, kind of like the NHC... They'll wait to make adjustments until these recent model runs get some support from the next ones.
415 TropicalAnalystwx13: I dislike 4/20. It's the one day everybody at school will pretend like they smoke marijuana.

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes (they should do that anyway)
650. eddye
i think south fla going 2 get the worst of it and so is orlando isnt south fla in the risk area
Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-201830-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-H ARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFFECTED
AREAS CAN EXPECT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

$$

05
Still just 15% probability:

SPC AC 201718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 70 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE FL KEYS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH SLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
AS A RESULT...THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.

TO THE N...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM ERN PA INTO WRN VA AND NC.

...FL...
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW NEARS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AND
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A
BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH SPORADIC
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
MAY BE WITH THE VORT MAX...PERHAPS IN AN ARCING LINE...AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED COUPLETS
WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND A FEW TORNADOES.


...WRN NC...VA...MD...ERN PA AND NJ...
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE MARGINAL...AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 04/20/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1726Z (1:26PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift



I agree
12z CMC




FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
FLZ042-048>051-055-056-060-061-201800-
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER PTSUNNY 79 68 69 W8 29.92S
INVERNESS PTSUNNY 84 64 51 W5 29.91F
BROOKSVILLE PTSUNNY 82 67 60 VRB3 29.92F
CLEARWATER CLOUDY 82 66 58 SW14 29.92S
TAMPA INTL MOSUNNY 85 69 58 S13 29.92F
TAMPA EXEC MOSUNNY 88 66 48 SW12G17 29.91F
PLANT CITY PTSUNNY 86 68 54 W8 29.93S
MACDILL AFB SUNNY 83 72 68 W15 29.92S
PETER O KNIGHT SUNNY 86 64 48 SW14 29.92S
ST PETERSBURG PTSUNNY 80 70 71 SW10 29.91S
SARASOTA SUNNY 83 69 62 SW13 29.91S
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CEDAR KEY 75 220/ 4/ 5 1014.0S
28.5N 84.5W 75 75 CALM / 2 1013.3F 1/ 5 2/ 5
27.3N 84.2W 77 N/A 1/ 4
VENICE 77 82 190/ 10/ 11 1012.7F

Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.


I still say that if the exact same dynamics were coming together somewhere else in the CONUS, where there is land, weather stations and the ability to gather real time data at the surface and aloft upstream, as opposed to a 1000 mile wide expanse of sea water (GOM) to the west, we'd be seeing a moderate risk outlook by now.

Because this is the Florida peninsula we are talking about, there is just essentially a big black hole out there to the west and this always prompts the SPC to go very conservative in their severe Wx potential forecast for Florida. The only possible exception to this rule is when a strong TS or a hurricane is forecast to make landfall. In those cases there is pretty much no denying that conditions will be extreme.

But when it comes to the more common winter and springtime storm systems such as this one, you will never or rarely ever see them place any part of the FL peninsula into anything above the slight risk category. Somehow this needs to change in the future because Florida weather can get just a rough as Georgia (for example) weather during a severe weather setup.

With as many as 20 million people present in Florida at any given time, including tourists and part time residents, my opinion is that there is a big gap in the forecasting ability when it comes to situations like this.
By the way, the tornado chances for today have gone up:

Quoting Xyrus2000:


:D

Magnetic pole reversals don't flip the planet, though that would certainly cause some interesting effects.


I never said it would flip the planet.
12Z CMC Precip Map



Quoting sunlinepr:
TODAY'S FUKUSHIMA UPDATE

MSNBC: Fukushima radiation “much higher than expected” says biologist — Negative effects to happen quicker than at Chernobyl… and be worse

Scientists are focusing on Japan’s Fukushima area after a study published this week found an alarming development at another nuclear disaster site — Chernobyl.
The proportion of female birds has fallen off since the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, the study found [...]
[Study co-author Tim Mousseau, a University of South Carolina biologist is] expecting even worse results at Fukushima.



Fukushima Investigation: “Within one day complete meltdown and melt through occurred” — “There is no way that gov’t did not know this”- VIDEO


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1pHimEuNpM&fe atur e=player_embedded#!


Gundersen: Cesium-134 and -137 detected in Southern California pollen sample — “When you find them both together that’s a Fukushima signature” (VIDEO)
Published: April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm ET




Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.
Thunderstorms firing fast around C FL. Atmosphere is very unstable today.

Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.
Howdy Grothar.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Howdy Grothar.



Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.


No storms ATM, just started raining though.
658. FLWaterFront 1:35 PM EDT on April 20, 2012

You are right about common Florida T-Storms in the Summer (or frontal system storms) reaching severe limits. I was in Orlando at a Conference last August and was sitting in the lobby looking out at a nasty afternoon T-Storm. A European Family on vacation came running indoors (They were coming in from the Pool area) and the Husband came over to me to ask if this was a "Hurricane". They had never seen afternoon boomers like that where they were from..........
Afternoon, this is kind of long, but not your usual forecast, either.
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN



Quoting Grothar:


I never said it would flip the planet.


Darn! I already made the new maps! :(

Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks like we may get more rain today and tonight than forecasted.



Personally I think we'll get more rain for the whole event than is forecast. The HPC dropped its QPF forecast down some which I think should not have happened, they should have stuck with previous heavier amounts.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.
Yeah I had mentioned this earlier. This boundary which originally was a weak cold front from a couple days ago stalled across central florida, and is now being reinvigorated by a surge of southerly wind. It'll move north slightly before tonight and will be the focus for very heavy rainfall totals.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 76. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I wonder if this means my 9:30 Sunday morning tennis game will be canceled.
Another TS Alberto? Glad you pointed out the one in 2006, and not the one in 1994; I don't think central Georgia wants to go through that again.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.


Very true, but Gundersen's presentation is gold... He knows how to simplify and explain what really happened and the consequences... For me a very respetable nuclear scientist...

Like he says, he loves Salmon, just like many of us.... Cesium will be in there in 2013-14, meanwhile enjoy Salmon al Ajillo...