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South Texas disturbance; Shuttle launch weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2006

An area of disturbed weather continues in the western Gulf of Mexico, near the Texas/Mexico border. The thunderstorm activity has become better organized this morning, and wind shear has dropped to 10 knots over the region. There are no signs of a surface circulation or the development of upper level outflow, but the disturbance has a good-sized area of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots through Monday night, which may allow for some continued development. However, the disturbance is very close to land, and will likely move ashore before developing into a tropical depression. South Texas/Northeast Mexico should get a good soaking on Monday, bringing the threat of flash flooding. So far, the rains have been welcome, as the region is under extreme drought.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of Brownsville showing the tropical disturbance of the Gulf of Mexico.

Space Shuttle launch weather
The weather for today's 3:26 pm EDT launch of the Space Shuttle looks bad, as thunderstorms more numerous than yesterday's are starting to pop up across the Florida Peninsula. Yesterday, the Shuttle got very unlucky--there were only two major thunderstorms in central Florida at launch time, and one of them happened to be within 20 miles of the Shuttle.


Figure 2. Satellite photo of Florida weather at launch time Saturday shows the unlucky thunderstorm that forced Discovery to scrub.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1stist
Good Morning Dr.Master's.
Looks like there may not be another Launch today. But it is Florida and things can turn around fast.
Good mornining all.

Just stopping in before heading off to do some yard work.

With all of the talk of this being a slower season, I am very concerned about the potential for some very dangerous landfalling systems this season. The temps in the Gulf, Carib, and E coast are already as warm and warmer in some location as they were last year on July 15th. My blog has year to year SST comparison maps. The warmer temps are surounding the coastal US and the entire Carib. These temps support rapid intensification, and if anything should get out there with favorable conditions it could be very bad. When systems are usually breaking apart at landfall, I would not be suprised to see a couple of landfalling systems that are actually intensifying right up to landfall. Please keep an eye on the sst data and understand what it means. I am also concerned that many have made it sound like ssts are actually cooler this year as opposed to last year, but that does not pertain to the areas talked about above.

Anywho enough of that for now. Ya'll have a great day, and don't forget to check out the Quick Links area on the website.

Have a great day all
SJ
July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.
Good Morning SJ.

I must agree with you on all that you just said. Things are going to get very active soon enough. Shear is our friend in one way. But not good in the other.
can someone tell mee how to paste an image on the right side of a blog.
sorry place instead of paste
not sure about that 456

96E

never mind about the question.
10. WSI
This was posted in the other blog.. want to repost here in case the person asking the question misses it...

"if a rotation is evident on radar; does that mean its a the surface?"

Possibly, but not necessarily. A lot of it depends on the distance the storm is from the radar, and the tilt from the radar.

Here is more information
. Take a look at the graphics to get an understanding of how tilt and distance affects where the radar beam hits the system. Interesting stuff.

I also have more radar links on my blog.

weathercore.com
11. WSI
*should say tilt of the radar above
Good Morning WSI.
Thanks for the information. Much apperciated. :)
I agree about the temps in the Gulf, they are warmer than last year and that caused Katrina and Rita to explode like bombs in the area. Anything slow moving west of the Mississippi could have catastrophic consequences.
14. MZT
It bears repeating that even if no storms form in July, that August-October can easily spawn off a dozen. All it will take is a small change in conditions. Even Alberto was itching to grow over that warm water, it was the dry air and sindhear keeping a lid on him...

I think this season will at least equal 2003, and we will see 3 major storms somewhere.
In reference to Dr. Masters' discussion of potential July tropical activity posted a few days ago - I have a question.

I can understand why the relatively high surface winds on the ITCZ are allowing for cooler surface temps than in 2005 is intereperiated as being a positive sign.

Yet what I don't understand is: If the 'function' of hurricanes is to send latent heat at the surface to the upper atmosphere and then poleward through convection - in the absence of tropical activity aren't the winds simply moving the heat in one place where hurricanes form to another?
This question stemmed from the discussion about significantly higher surface temps in the W Carribean and Gulf. (ITCZ heat being blown westward into areas that are now indicating abnormally high surface temps)

Any comments are welcomed!
Another thing that could mean very bad news if any storm got into the Gulf with favorable conditions is that a massive eddy is forecast to develop in the Gulf (a similar eddy helped to produce Katrina and Rita last year).
That seems reasonible cane. I would also think that you could look for weaker waves crossing the Atlantic to intensify as they got in to the warmer waters. Where as in previous years these storms may have developed way out in the Atlantic. I would think this would in some way also effect steering of these systems as they move much differently when they are well formed systems.

SJ
18. MZT
CaneKid, that may be why the old marinrer's lore says that storms are worse as "Bahama Busters" than as Cape Verdes.

While at first it might seem that a CV storm has plenty of time to grow and strengthen as it crosses the Atlantic, that doesn't seem to be the case most of the time. They chug alog as cat CAT 1 storms, and smooth out the heat differential in the far Atlantic. Perhaps that activity slows the movement of heat into the Carribbean.
19. MZT
Yeah MichaelSTL - some people here have been interpreting the slow start (really, a quite normal start) of this season as an indication of a poor one, I don't see it that way.

Alberto came within a whisker of hurricane status while over the loop current under hostile conditions. The tropical low we saw off FLA last week, was probably a few hours away from TD status when it was off the Carolinas and feeding from the Gulf Stream.

The water is plenty warm enough. This season will get popping in due course.
Indeed cane some examples,.....Camille,Katrina,Rita,Wilma,Mitch.

There is from a danger standpoint a real danger of the disturbance coming across undeveloped. Main item is that an undeveloped wave will come on west where as a developed storm often will encounter a trough and turn north. On a good note this disturbance in the west gulf probably has given a slow down to the warm water and actually should cause some cooling.

Tx
For the record, statistically speaking, a slow start means nothing for the intenstity of the season.
hey tx could to see you here again been meaning to say hi but been try ing
to explain to the st supporters why i have been ribbing him there must be a
lot of new people on here sj i know you know the score like the rest of the regulars lol
tx whats that disturb looking like to you if it continues to crawl north or maybe nne by
mon this could get a little stronger just my thought
cape verde type storms:
Ivan 2004----peak cat 5...landfall cat 3
Frances 2004----peak cat 4....landfall cat 2
Isabelle 2003 peak cat 5......landfall cat 2
Georges 1998 peak cat 4.......landfall USA cat 2

Caribbean and Gulf Storms:
Katrina------peak cat 5.....landfall....cat 3/
Charley 2004----peak cat 4.....landfall cat 4
Jeanne 2004.....peak cat 3...landfall cat 3
Camille....peak cat 5...landfall....cat 5

If you see...cape verde storms usually reach their peak when they enter the gulf and caribbean sea.

Second....the storms that formed closer to the Caribbean had bigger effects that cape verde type storms.

Third----while it is true that cape verde type storms have more time to strenghten...the cooler waters of the atlantic, did not let them go far.
But those that form near to land in the Gulf and Craiibean sea, Bahamas also....have lesser time but enough warm water to work with.

Yet another reason why sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean doesnt matter. Most storms dont reach their peak until the C'bbean, GOM and around the bahamas.
the slower the year get off the hoter the sea temps well get and the biger the eddy will be
This year is already far ahead of the average season; the first storm typically develops by July 11th, a month after Alberto, and the second by August 8th, more than a month away from now.

More information here
When we (southeast TX) had our last big rain event (June 17-19) I thought the system in the W GoM was trying to drop to the surface and spin up. I ended up being wrong so I am kind of gun-shy on speculating on this one (especially considerring the NHC's outlook.)

What do you all think about the chances on this one becoming a TD, TS, or hurricane? (I love percentages if you care to go out on a limb.)

Thank you for your discussion.
I took my boat out yesterday,( south Mobile Bay) and the water is positively hot! I can't remember water temps like this!
Posted by: GulfPilot, 11:23 AM EDT on July 02, 2006
Just went through my digital pics from last year, and thought I'd post a few here. These are all Katrina-related, either before or after the storm hit.
ov
These were all taken from helicopters offshore, or in and over New Orleans.

I'll post another blog in the next few days with some very alarming predictions about hurricane preparation in Louisiana this year. Louisiana is NOT ready for another Katrina/Rita event!
as i said in my blog.....it only takes one blob of convection to enter the gulf....and do a whole season worth of damage...God forbid.

Good to see yo again Saintsfan, for a while I thought SA was going to get your saints. ST needs to be ribbed once in a while, but he is fun.

The furtherest north I could see that system going is around Galveston. With a sse flow from a low off to w it will be steered nnw. If it stays ofshore it seems to have a chance.
It seems to have that "mojo" that developing systems need.

Tx
i dont disagree tx but my old eyes dont show any movement with this
please feel free to correct me if you see different. by the way saints should be
better we will see the texans on the other hand i
think made a wise decision on mario williams im not
a big bush fan i wish the saints would have traded down for multiple picks see ya
Well said 456, remember Andrew, a slow but one strong 4(no it wasn't really a 5, especially at landfall, political upgrading is just plain wrong) hitting a populated area made it an expensive season. Also 1983 had Alicia,that made that a bad year, even though that is the least tropical activity since 1960(when I start my analysis).

Onday, don't be gunshy, if that system had set up 200 south we would have had a storm probably. That was a concern among the weather community. I give you one word, Alicia. now another Alicia is unlikely but a tropical storm was in the cards. If you remember, the disturbance that formed Alicia flooded houston as it headed south into the Gulf. Also Alicia is a classic example of"devlopment is not expected" to hurricane in 24 hours.
Tx
Is there some sort temperature "gradient scale" for sst's?
Look at 2005...if Katrina was the only storm in that season, 2005 would of the still been the worst...we need to stop look at the number of storms forming....
Dr, Gray predicted 17....Noaa predicted 16....

Note they did not predicted how many will make landfall as Cat 3 and above.

Saintsfan, I meant to add that I originally thought this thing wouldn't go north of corpus, so i could most certainly be wrong and nne is possible. I'm no forecaster and to quote Tom Bombadil "I am no weather-master, nor is aught that goes on two legs"
Tx

Ps, i hope the Texans do better, they can't do worse I guess. I always have had a soft spot for the saints, mainly because one side of my family is from LA(they actually had the dead from Audrey laid out in their front yard after the storm), and also I missed Bum Phillips and Earl when they left the Oilers.
Dr. Gray just mentions intense hurricanes. No particular category.





ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2006



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date

6 December 2005
Issue Date

4 April 2006
Issue Date

31 May 2006

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
17
17
17

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
85
85
85

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
9
9
9

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
45
45
45

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
5
5
5

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
13
13
13

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
195
195
195


It seems to me that the experts in the field are trying to temper the medias typical hype comparing 05 to 06 and in doing so, perhaps are trying to remain "clinically detached" so as not to add to the feeding frenzy. I feel SST'S are not being given credit for their fuel to potential storms.
456, the only reason we worry about that is simple odds, the more storms the more chance of somebody having a bad one hit. But like to see a change where we combined the upper patterns with the forecast # to see what the odds are of on area getting hit. Now this is done to a degree, but would liek to see it done more professionaly. One REALLY disturbing item to me is that historically as we go through the up cycle we move w with landfall. But that is just a trend and not absolute.
Tx
Area that no one has touched on, just about due east of the bahamas is a swirl that appears to be trying to form. has a good inflow and appears on water vapor to have a circulation attached to it. Could this be the next BB or just a fish storm?

Secondly a somewhat impressive wave came off africa with a circulation attached to it, I know we start looking that way this time of year. Whats the feeling on when we get the first storm forming near or off of Africa?

Thirdly does it seem like the eastern pacific is a wee bit more active than usual, compared to what the forecast was for the atlantic basin compared to the pacific basin?
I think they don't want people getting all revved up early in the season, only to peater out in late August when they truly need to be revved up.

I know I felt that way at the beginning of the season, but I've purposefully downshifted; I'm gonna relax, enjoy a July excursion, and wait for a storm to actually form before letting the adrenalin flow.
plywoodstatenative your question on the eastern pacifc...for that forecast predcited the eastern pacfic should have reached the "B" storm by now.

to me they are either on track or below average.
david_thomas900@yahoo.com is my yahoo e mail and you got to yet me no when i have yahoo e mail from you all you can e mail me any time you like and yes i sit be her on the blogs and all of that
plywood actually we are WAY below normal in the Epac. I honestly can't remmber a quieter June over there and like I mentioned in a post last night, the potential development zone is south of 11/12.

Now on the area in the E atlantic, the upper air is really getting better and except for the SST's i'd be all for it, I'd see how the wave holds together and maybe if it does we might need to watch around 50.

Also when you look at WV, be aware that you are generally looking at upperlevel features and this low is upper level. Now given time and thunderstorms it can trasition, but until that time its an impediment to development.

TX
not speaking in the sense of storms that have been named, but just generally in the amount of waves. However being that is abnormally quiet in the EPac. what does that mean for those of us dealing with the hurricane season in the atlantic basin?
plywood,

Cant really comment on the WV loop, as I cant fricken see it since my Java is messed up. But from still frames there's not too much convection associated with it. Give it about the same chance as the Texas blob to develope, which isn't very good - maybe 10%. Looks like it would probably move out to sea also.

Cant watch the loop of the African wave, either. CMISS doesn't show shear out to Africa, but it does show dust/dry air, and there's a ton of it surrounding the wave. I'd say it's still a bit early for something to develope before getting to the Caribbean or Bahamas. It's possible, just very unlikely.

Also, the East Pacific has been absolutly dead this season. One tropical storm and one depression. One of only two seasons without a named storm during June(average is two). It has had a lot of invests, just not much getting named.
Afternoon all.

tx, I think you mentioned that the tx disturbance should help to cool the gulf a little, and while this is true, it is cooling the W Gulf, and the N and E Gulf are where the extreemly hot temps are. At least from what I can tell. These SSTs are going to cause a real problem in the future months. I do not think that people are preppared to go to bed on a CAT 1 right off their doorstep and then wake up to an intensifying CAT 3 or 4.

Quick Links

SJ
wow, we just reciecved 3.25 inches of rain in an hour and a half. my porch is 3 inches deep in water. I have never seen it flood except in hurricane/Tropical storms.
SJ, you are absolutely correct and in this I'm guilty of being self centered. Also note that an intesifying storm is signifcantly more dangerous at landfall than a weakening storm, which if I'm correct all the storms in recent memmroy of the Panhandle have been. (there's a reason for this, part upper winds part SST)
Tx
HI Everyone, first time blogger anywhere! i've been shrimpin on this site since the week before katrina. This sight help save 6 of my friends. I lived in Slidell, LA for 8 years and now reside in toiletbury ct, opps, i meant Waterbury, CT. just wanted to give you a "News Flash", the shuttle has been scrubbed till tomorrow, 2:38pm, I believe. Have a happy! Thank You, all sooooooooo much! slabqueen a.k.a Bou
50. MZT
The Gulf temperature maps not only show a very warm eddy forming south of LA/MS/AL, but that it's also quite deep (200m+). There is a great deal of heat waiting.

I think we will probably see at least two major Gulf storms this year. If they're only "Dennis-sized" I would consider that a decent escape, from another potentially nasty year.
The nhc is getting a little more interested in our gulf blob. They have scheduled a recon invest tommorow at 26.o n and 96.0 w and one tuesday at 28.5 and 96.0. so it looks like they expect mostly a north course.Houston we may have a problem
The launch is Tuesday July 4th at 2:38pm
no its not Houston we have a problem. Its Houston: We have Contact!!!!
The storm east of Texas is worth watching. It doesnt seem to be moving west. Id say north becoming NE. The shear has died WAY down. Im thinking it will follow the track of the system a bit east.
sorry about that plywood, was thinkin monday was the 4th, anytime i get a day off during the week it's usually a bank holiday, boss gave me monday and tuesday off. slabqueen
Thanks Slab, there are many helpful people on this blog. Stop in more often now that you have broken the ice :)

tx, we are all self centered at times....As for the weakening storms making land fall, yes I agree that with the exception of Charlie, and Katrina's Florida crossing, most landfalling systems are weakening just prior to landfall.

SJ
Surface pressures are weird high in the gulf. Texas would seem sensible as a destination If its dragged across the gulf its sure to be an intense situation.
thank you SJ! slabqueen
59. MZT
Pressures are 1019 mb+ in most of the western Gulf. I don't think that system off Texas will do much unless that turns around.
as for speaking about the WV loop, I was speaking about the still image.
Welcome slabqueen, my kin in Slidell relocated as well.

It seems, little (as in area) storms, in favorable conditions, intensify on landing; where big storms weaken on landfall.

The weather was absolutely beautiful, half way up the east coast of FL, the day Homestead was anialated.

Any storms fall out of these perameters? A few, a lot?
Ok now its time to look. So far we don't seem to have a surface circulation, all winds in s texas are e-se. They would take on a northerly component if a low was developing.

If(and its a giant if, though smaller than earlier) allow for a low to develop, I'd say you would look for the about 50-100ene of brownsville. So the alarm should be if that convection on the east flank starts to really wrap around that area.
There is also a chance that a low could spin up in the convection, but I don't see that yet.
TX
65. MZT
It's harder for a big, wide storm to not have land interference. A small storm can slip though straights or enter bays and hold it's structure longer.

I wouldn't go so far as to say small storms commonly strengthen before landfall. But I think it's more likely that a CAT1 storm will hold it's intensity right up to landfall versus a CAT4.

Besides, very powerful storms need very favorable conditions. Therefore by definition it's easier for one parameter to slip out of alignment over time, and mess up the optimization of the storm.
jphurricane, to add to your comment look where all reached their peak. NW carribean and Gulf. Also add Allen and Camiile. These + the labor days storm were probably the strongest windwise.
TX
hi all - my sense is that the Texas blob of thunderstorm activity is slowly moving NW just now, and I'm not seeing any hint of circulation..
ok..... in july, there seems to be on many occasions, area's of disturbed develop between form between the carolina's and bermuda.....

what do ya'll make of the area of diturbed weather we have now....

in the area, at the lower part of the disturbance, you see shear from west to east, but on the northern part, the shear seems to lesson significantly..... maybe with a little shear from south to north.....

i have a feeling this "disturbed area" may persist for several days..... and just meander around, and may have to be watched for signs of any development.....

what do you guys think? :)
Yes JP, Hugo was massive when it came on shore. Huge dougnut eye. It was crystal clear when the eye passed over my house 30 miles inland. There was a lot of inland damage with that storm. Also worthy of noting was the 18 to 20 mph forward speed of Hugo during landfall.

SJ
hey Michael, the thunderstorms are not necessarily being steered by surface winds so they can be moving northwest even if surface winds are ENE - note that any shift to a more northerly flow along the Texas coast could be a sign of developing circulation..
Precipitation is indeed dissipating in the western Gulf, continues heavy in the northwestern Gulf - looks like Houston may get hammered again, esp. given that the whole mess is moving NW..
- note that the Houston area and NW Gulf are out of the range of the Brownsville Station (Figure 1 in this post from Dr. Masters)
Here's the quickscat thru nexsat, shows some 45kt winds, on the GOM blob. I'm glad this doesn't look 1/2 as good as it did around midnight lastnight.
Guys what the.... I was outside working so my brain is cooked but coming back in - GOM Blob looks SCARY in comparison to earlier. It looks like tropical storm blob.
Thats a nice quickscat sky.
From that ant the buoys im gonna try for a "center" ~ near 93 w 26n
Theres a significant pressure gradient - something is on the surface - Buoy / Graph
July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.
Florida is getting whats left of the BOC blob complex. GOM blob Child of BOC blob is next.
Whats your forcast for the blob near Texas all?
Theres a cold top along 25n 93w that isnt behind sheared too bad. If heavy convection develops over those waters nothing will stop it.
E? NE? but SLOW T415
Our blob is a tropical wave actually.
How could they know?
Cold blob, I love you so.
Blobo blobo youre circulations a mess
There once was a blob,
Its clouds were a mob,
It wanted to be spinning,
But to its dismay,
It knew it was failing,
And all it could do was flay.
What the heck? Ode to a Blob?

Has somebody been celebrating the Fourth with a wee bit too much ardor?
Zap
Evening all....Check out the outflow boundary moving off the west coast of Florida. Link...Quite impressive!
Actually an outflow boundary is a sign of a decaying thunderstorm cluster. Now this wave should mosey along across the gulf w/o development over the next few day.

The rains in the w gulf/texas are largely related to a ton of deep tropical moisture interacting with a upper midlevel low over w texas. This isn't forecast to do much until wed/thur. I do wonder if we'll get a surge of thunderstorms in texas wed as that next wave.

This good news is that the divergent flow is encouraging rain where we needit, even la is getting some.
Tx
Posted By: CaneKid at 3:56 PM GMT on July 02, 2006.
In reference to Dr. Masters' discussion of potential July tropical activity posted a few days ago - I have a question.

I can understand why the relatively high surface winds on the ITCZ are allowing for cooler surface temps than in 2005 is intereperiated as being a positive sign.

Yet what I don't understand is: If the 'function' of hurricanes is to send latent heat at the surface to the upper atmosphere and then poleward through convection - in the absence of tropical activity aren't the winds simply moving the heat in one place where hurricanes form to another?
This question stemmed from the discussion about significantly higher surface temps in the W Carribean and Gulf. (ITCZ heat being blown westward into areas that are now indicating abnormally high surface temps)

Any comments are welcomed!


Go back to basic physics, kid. All weather is temperature differences in action. All winds, all rain, all storms of every type.

The Earth is a spinning spheroid. It has an equator of 25,000 miles diameter that spins one turn per day, giving a surface speed relative to the atmosphere of 25000/24ths per hour, or 1042 mph. If it wasn't for the boundry effect, life wouldn't be able to exist with thousand mph winds on the equator.

The poles also have a rotation of one full turn per 24 hours, but they have a diameter of 1 inch, giving an effective rotation of zero mph. This is the first and biggest of the differences at play. The higher equatorial speed translates into latitudinal shear forces of a permanent background character. This is where the coriolis force comes from that spins heat energy from the tropics towards the poles.

The whole Earth has another important temperature differential: from the surface to the stratosphere the temperatures are as different as they are from the equator to the poles. There is a lifting of heated air upwards and a dropping of cooled air downwards, and this is a series of bandings around the Earth called Hadley Convection cells.

The ITCZ is the equatorial convergence of the rotating tropical Hadley Cells, and it's speed depends on temperature difference top to bottom. The hotter the bottom is, the faster that convective rotation, and the faster that convective rotation, the faster the winds at the surface.

The Earth surface is not uniformly smooth, so some surface friction exists in asymetrical locations. Additionally, the surface is not uniformly made of the same materials with identical heat retaining and heat emitting materials, so more asymetries are introduced.

The amounts of complexity has now begun to stretch human mental processes to the breaking point, so that it begins to look random from here onwards. Not even the superest super-computers have perfect prediction by this amount of complexity, yet there are many more layers of complexities to pile on top of these.

At no time does the ITCZ dispose of all the incoming solar heat energy as local winds and precipitation. Not summer, not winter. There is plenty left over for mixing with higher latitudes.

Over the past few weeks the ITCZ has regularly been splitting into two paths over Central America. Most of it continues to go westwards, but a substantial stream has daily crossed over Mexico and made CONUS impressive severe storm events. The various satellites are not optimized to feature these heat vapor streams, but the rainbow enhancements of Infrared channel 4 give the best hints.

From about local solar noon to local midnight you can see blowups of thunderstorms go up from middle Mexico and arc high in North America, curving back east and even south. The flooding in Houston weeks ago looked like it came from the Northwest, but on a series of archived satpix it can be traced every half-hour to the ITCZ path I described.

Over the past few days the Western Gulf of Mexico has been boiling from this branch eddy of the ITCZ, which has expanded, not shifted, to include the western GOM.

The "missing heat" in lower temps of the ITCZ is partly explained by this distribution going well into Canada at times.

At the moment that I write this, one branch of the northern split has looped far north and east and is presently casting thunderstorms over northern Pennsylvania and lower New York State, while another branch of the same ITCZ eddy has been harrassing with thunderstorms coastal Texas to Florida (which scratched the day's shuttle launch). The main ITCZ flow in EPAC has been robbed of just enough heat energy lost to the north that it hasn't been able to generate tropical storms since Early June.

Ironically, it is the lower heat energy that is creating the stronger winds of the ITCZ as much as vice versa. If there were more hot tropical moist air left in the EPAC it would spawn cyclones which would localize high winds at points while stilling the air at other points. Those cyclones in turn would draw off the eddy stream moving northwards over Mexico, and the CONUS would have hotter temps and fewer severe weather events at this time of year.

Straightline winds, "dericios", can be more destructive than tornados. Nature doesn't care either way. Nature doesn't care if you live or die. Nature doesn't prefer cyclones over long stretched out storms that drop as much rain and carry as much wind energy as cyclones. Houston got clobbered with a tropical storm in 2001, a 500-year flood. Houston got clobbered with a near 500-year flood last month from a no-name event from the same heat source. Nature doesn't care -- it goes the path of least resistence. In this case the path of least resistence to get to Houston was a 3000 mile roundabout through Colorado.

At the end of the year there will be the same number of roofs blown off and the same number of houses drowned and the same number of people killed, whether there are any named hurricanes this season or none at all. Nature is not fooled by people putting names of heat energy events -- only people are fooled by that.

The solar intensity is not changing and the laws of physics are not changing. The forces set in motion by heat energy cannot be bottled and repressed -- they will just burst out in other forms elsewhere that you are not looking for.
"you almost never see an outflow boundry survive like that"

It is a good example. Boundaries like that frequently do persist and travel some distance. Maybe we don't see them so clearly.

NOAA used to have a video on one of their myriad websites showing outflows from solitary thunderstorms over south Florida. It had a few thunderstorms in the course of a day. The outflow spread out in almost a perfect circle from each storm all the way across the peninsula. Can't find it now.
Found it. Actually a NASA web page.

Look near the bottom of the page for "Thunderstorms over Florida". Skip all that hurricane imagery. Dated July 2, 1995. 11 year anniversary!
jphurricane2006: Where does everyone think the next tropical system will form?

You didn't list the Great Lakes Region.

I so would have voted for that.
Cop for the cop. The ITCZ is well below Mexico. Looping up into Pensylvania? Sounds like your own original research to me. Moisture may be streaming up from the tropics to norther latitudes, but this has nothing to do with the ITCZ. Mostly our post makes sound sense, except for that part.
that is a great video Bappit, clearest example of outflow boundary I've ever seen.
jphurricane2006: can I change my answer then?

Heh, no.

You'll see! You'll all see soon!

*shakes fist at sky*
jphurricane2006 I'm leaning real hard for the Bahamas. Waters on the west side are hot!
Anything crossing there is going to blow!
I certainly hope so Michael, but here about 40 miles SW of Corpus Christi, it didn't rain yesterday, nor today...this is a pretty poor excuse for a tropical wave, at least where we are. I was fishing yesterday and here is a pic, you can see the threatening skies! (not)
hmmmmm try again
anyone know what I am doing wrong posting this pic?
The GOM Blob does seem to by dying down a little as expanded as it has become, over reaching land so much, looks like S TX gave it a shot of a little drier air. The one factor that has drawn my eye just east of FL, is the sweat that formed on my house windows before the sun was even down. We got some tropical moisture, lol. Good thing we gotta alotta shear too.

still cleaning up from the record flood in the NE. Lost at least 20 people
look at that blob drifting off of the Yucatan and into the Gulf tonight!
All tropical blobs or any appearance thereof are in violation of the Caneman Tropical Ordinance Act Sections 1.1 and 2.5 which reads in part "......any formation of tropical disturbances both in part and parcel are hereby and forthwith banned from formation, strengthening, and interaction with populated areas....."

sorry Caneman your ordinance is in violation of basic thermodynamics (which requires heat building up in the tropics to be dispersed polewards through tropical storms and ocean currents)..
are the GOES sats down?
I can't connect to any of their servers
Clipping NOAA's wings

A federal labor judge has forbidden the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from flying its Gulfstream IV hurricane hunter jet into the cores of storms.
GOES sats are not down. I've been following WV and IR of the Gulf through the day and evening..
I got GOES & more GOES.
- GOESing, GOESing gone..
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DIMINISHING.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
goodbye blob
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ft-l.jpg

Floater 3 shows the storm activity that just flew by the Phillyburbs mentioned previously.

First report in from on-the-ground:
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=local&id=4327218
6abc.com, PA - 53 minutes ago

Wild Weather Whips Through the Area
July 2, 2006 - A dose of severe thunderstorms ripped down over one hundred trees across the Lehigh and Delaware Valleys. Unfortunately, many trees landed on people's homes. A quick moving batch of thunderstorms have left their mark on Philadelphia and the surrounding area. Strong winds, accompanied by hard rain tore down hundreds of trees around the area, causing extensive damage.

Follow-up storms on the same ytrack visible in Nebraska and Colorado:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/ft-l.jpg

Tropical pathway for these storms is shown in NEPAC and WEUS satpix:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/ft-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/ft-l.jpg


Divergence of two streams of ITCZ visible in WATL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ft-l.jpg

Main stream goes west as normal, northern tributary stream goes up latin America, splits again into two branches, one up Mexico and the other GOM north than east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ft-l.jpg
Latest FUNKTOP satpic has GREEN High Cold Cloudtops. I checked my records for this current period back to June 27th -- no green ever in the Funktop pix. This current one is the most intense of the bunch and may have the most chance of development.

RGB pic has smallish size, below minimum threshhold for storm generation, so it depends on it's ability to grow in the Gulf. It is approaching the lull of the night, which is not conductive for growth. It's likely to spend it's fury in the next few hours and end up being another waterbomb over Texas/Louisiana coast. Might provide some natural fireworks displays for the 4th on the Florida Panhandle coast.

Bloobie will be back soon he just sucked up some dry air theres jet fuel on its way up from the Caribbean.
Why do the buoys in the center gulf all say Note: This report is more than two hours old now?"
W Atlc tropical wave is along 55w S of 16n moving W 20 kt. This
is a well-organized wave that has a distinctive v-shape on
satellite and plenty of tstm activity...though wly flow aloft
should inhibit any tropical development
Nothing much on the space side of things to indicate a problem with the satellites, just

recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 03 July.

There is a slight increase in the x-ray flux occurring now but it shouldnt be enough to disrupt satellites.

Forecast:

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/50/50
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/15/15


When green appears in Funktop imagery it indicates high cold cloudtops, which itself indicates strong convection much higher and stronger than normal thunderstorms.

To say the least, it is scaring the offshore workers on the Mexican Oilfields it is approaching. To have a metal structure 100 or more feet taller than anything else, connected to Earth-ground through metal conductive legs, surrounded by highly volatile gases and liquids, in the pitch dark of night lit up by frequent lightning strikes has got to be a religious-inducing experience. I dare say there will be a few prayers said tonight out there by normally cussing sacriligious roustabouts.

Skyepony that horrible. More leftwing nuttiness. First we have wacky leftist judges who give terrorist rights and now this with the flights into storms. I'm sorry we're still free and if an employer talks to you individually(instead of going through a self serving union) you should have the right to say yes.

Back on the weather you can expect some of the blobs to pop up again overnight(this is their maximum), but they'll weaken as the day progresses. Hopefully wildhorsedesert we'll get some rain in south Texas tommorrow. No promises though.

good night and keep dreaming of storms.
Wow check out Ewiniar in the W. Pacific. Can you say pin-hole eye alert?!

Buoys back up nothing that unusual except very high pressure
HM, thanks. Wow - rapid intensification of Ewiniar is obviously occurring. It looked like a mess earlier in the day..
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0406.gif shows the track of Ewiniar (north toward Japan), which just made typhoon status and is forecast to intensify to 105 knots (Cat 3) in a few days..
be interesting what JMA status has for the storm now.. last update it was 45 kts
latest from JMA (0300 UTC) is 55 kt, 980 mb..
Posted By: txweather at 4:24 AM GMT on July 03, 2006.
Skyepony that horrible. More leftwing nuttiness. First we have wacky leftist judges who give terrorist rights and now this with the flights into storms. I'm sorry we're still free and if an employer talks to you individually(instead of going through a self serving union) you should have the right to say yes.

Back on the weather you can expect some of the blobs to pop up again overnight(this is their maximum), but they'll weaken as the day progresses. Hopefully wildhorsedesert we'll get some rain in south Texas tommorrow. No promises though.

good night and keep dreaming of storms.


It would appear anybody not to the right of Adolph Hitler is a "leftists whacko". All people have rights -- it in the Declaration of Independence: "Inalienable Rights" that are not revokable by King George that we will be celebrating on July 4th.

The US signed the Geneva Treaty on Prisoners of War. If they are combatants, then they have rights under the Geneva Treaty, the same rights we want our soldiers to be given if captured. The violation of those rights by anybody else does not give us permission to violate those rights.

If they are not combatants, then they have the right to go freely about their business. One or the other, there is no third choice.

There's nothing "left" or "right" about this. There is only "war crimes" or "no war crimes". Rather than live within the law you seem to be advocating being war criminals. Is that your position?

Again, on the subject of individual rights, you are on the side of "wrong" rather than "right". People have the right to hire representatives of their choice to negotiate for them. Corporate CEOs use lawyers to do that every day. Working stiffs use unions to represent their interests. You are against "rights" but denounce those who stand up for them calling yourself "right". Frankly, you are so far wrong you are outside of sanity.

The Supreme Court told Bush he was WRONG, NOT RIGHT, to evade the laws and claim he was exempt. The Laws of the Geneva Convention cover everybody in the world who signed up for it, like we did. King George got overthrown. The US does not stand for War Crimes -- That's NOT RIGHT, it's WRONG. GEORGIE GOT WHACKED, so I guess he's the whacho in the bunch.

Do try to get it straight, that democracy does not mean lawlessness because you won an election round. It means you get to live by the laws and enforce the laws during your watch, not evade the laws and break them. If you don't like how America works, don't let the door bang your butt on the way out, but get out. We don't need you and we don't want you here. We managed to win two World Wars without degenerating into barbarian torturers or wholesale war criminals, and we don't need some pests hiding in mountains of Afghanistan as an excuse to lose all that because they yell boo. We don't need some subversive pests hiding on forums to end freedom and democracy either. All we have to do is stop defending rights and it's over, deader than a piece of roadkill. As far as I'm concerned you are no part of America. Nothing you say is American. Nothing you stand for has value. You have succeeded in making yourself into nothing.

Happy 4th of July for patriots who stand up for INALIENABLE RIGHTS and denounce tyrants wherever they be.
okaaaay... guess a nerve was touched there LOL

Judging by the satellite shots of the pacific storm, it sure looks stronger than cat 1 storm.
Amen SC. When did believing in the ideas of the declaration of independence and provisions of the US Constitution become leftist? Weve changed every part of our lives, our government and our society since the 9/11 terrorist acts committed by 20 really stupid creeps only five or so who knew what was essentially going on. Isnt that exactly what you would do to validate them? I hate that we let them call all the shots now.

Anyway what were we talking about oh yea Now theyve joined the outsourcing Scam the NWS should be expected to follow the rules just like any business. And when some crisis prevents them from doing regular business, which is guaranteed to happen, perhaps we will remember that government agencies were created specifically for situations the private sector cant and/or shouldnt handle.
I hear you loud and clear, ScienceCop, and I have your back.
"Clipping NOAA's Wings"?
Sounds more like the NWS management tried to cut costs by putting its employees in danger. I've been a union member most of my life, and I can tell you any good union has two big concerns: keeping good-paying jobs for its members and ensuring safety for its members. Sounds like NWS managers tried to do a sleazy end-run around the union to cut costs at the expense of safety of its employees. The Gulfstream IV has mostly been used for deploying dropsondes around the periphery of storms to get better model initializations. The union wouldn't turn down the extra work unless it had legitimate safety concerns.

From the coal mines of West Virginia and Montana, to the steel mills in Pennsylvania and Ohio, to the automobile plants in Michigan, there is a long history of unions fighting for the rights of American workers. People got their heads bust and sometimes were killed to make fight for justice in the workplace, and now that is all being flushed down the drain by the right wing nutjobs who think all unions are evil. As unions have declined in this country, so have wages, while the length of the work week goes up, leisure time to spend with our families decline, and workplace safety deteriorates. The common citizen is loosing the battle against the multinational corporations who owe no allegiance to the community or our country, and the middle class is rapidly disappearing under this onslaught of class warfare being waged by the top 1% elites against you and me.
Well, the wave headint into the Caribbean looks impressive this morning.

W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 20
KT. THIS IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE
V-SHAPE ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
Continued good news for drought areas of Texas and possibly LA.

ANOTHER ACTIVE AREA WILL BE OVER TX. MOISTURE FROM A DISTURBANCE
IN THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY BEING DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER W CENTRAL TX. THE NEW 12Z GFS GIVES HOPE THAT
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD HANG AROUND OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE LONE STAR STATE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MEDR...BRINGING RAIN
AND RELIEF TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF COULD EVEN EXTEND N INTO SE OK.
It is almost as if a backdoor front came in over the northern half of the FL east coast last night, as the air aloft is much drier and winds are mostly light northeasterly across the northern half of the state this morning. The area of convection this morning over the Bahamas is due to upper level diffluence, under 30 knot westerly winds shear reaching as high as 40 knots over the FL peninsula.

This morning's local AFD from Melbourne is calling for "deep easterly flow" (SURFACE TO 18/20 thousand feet) by tomorrow. I notice that the 060703/0000 NAM forecasts a 1012 mb surface low off the FL coast by 060705/0600. The corresponding GFS run show no closed low but rather an open wave coming across the FL peninsula. Further west, the ULL over West Texas looks to be nearly stationary, and hopefully will continue to pull in Gulf Moisture for the drought-parched regions of interior Texas and Oklahoma.

Out in the mid Atlantic the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles looks healthy this morning, but it is entering an area of higher shear and will have to survive 30 knot southwesterly shear coming off of South America once it enters the Easter Caribbean.
Just a quick hello to all. Long time reader and user, new registerererer. ScienceCop - thanks for the overview of how and why there is "weather", I think my girl might finally understand it all. To everyone else, thanks for all the education and enlightenment! Took some meteorolgy courses in college, but that was years ago, and have been following phenomena for ever it seems. Growing up in Corpus Christi and being an avid fisherman, I can't help but follow this stuff. Looking forward to it.
It will be interesting to follow this Caribbean wave the next three days. Looks like a window of opportunity might open up around the Bahamas in the next 48-72. Two models are showing it now. But we'll see.
look by the leeuward islands a big blob is popping up maybe its interesting?
July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.
Sciencecop TERRORISTS are Not part of an army, DO NOT wear the uniform of a nation and are not subject to the Geneva Hague convention. Why in the hell are you more concerned about the way some A--HOLE TERRORIST is treated than two U.S. Troops Mutilated by a bunch of animals.?

Sincerely, Baybuddy, U.S.Army VII Corps, Gulf War Vet
The CMC modle has realy been active so far this season. Look at what it is now showing.

Link
Baybuddy - Amen, and Amen!! And by the way... Thank you from the bottom of my heart for your service to our country, and keeping her save so our children can live in freedom. GOD BLESS.
newinfl

It looks like the CMC is forecasting a low to move up the E coast, but if you look at the 850mb forecast you will see that it is not a closed circulation that is being forecasted, therefore not tropical. Also note that the CMC has not done well with formation thus far. I am not sure that it is properly accounting for the sheer.

Quick Links

Ya'll have a great day. I am off to get some more yardwork done.
SJ

The thing going up the East Coast is extratropical. Link (cold core = extratropical)
another quiet day. west pacific is active though. Typhoon Ewiniar has a very good structure and pinhole eye. Its interesting to watch. Its in the west pacific section of my site.

Hurricane Warning
Japan Meteorological Agency as of 7 am CDT

0603 Ewiniar 80 kts 950 hPA
JTWC has the storm at 85 knots, a category 2 typhoon
From Houston forecast discussion:

88-D IS LIGHTING OFF THIS MORNING

PW'S ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2.41 AND 2.66 INCHES. HAVE NEVER SEEN THESE VALUES SO HIGH!

Wow, didn't expect the NOAA gets it's wings clipped thing to turn into such a political arguement...

I have to wonder if this is purely about safety here...

Whatever useful data these flights generate, the labor judge sided with the union representing the National Weather Service's employees, which said NOAA had illegally negotiated with individual employees instead of the union when changing the mission of the flights. The union calls the new flights dangerous, especially for such light aircraft.

or if the NWS union felt it's toes had been trodded on during some last minute disision making. The practice of flying this craft through the core of a tropical storm, not hurricanes, was ended after Emily and Franklin. I imagine it would be a tough thing to write it into the plan of the day since you wouldn't know for sure if the storm was weak enough to fly it through. But I don't know the safety hazards or the workings of the union for the Hurricane Hunters. What we need is an expert here like hmmmm~

DR MASTERS care to comment on sending Gonzo in the core of a TS?

"If they are combatants, then they have rights under the Geneva Treaty" - ScienceCop

Well, to put it mildly, THIS IS BULLBLEEP!

hey cop, stick to science, because politics don't suit you well, as it seems you have your "facts" wrong.....

The Geneva Conventions have one aim to protect both soldiers and civilians as much as possible from the horrors of war......

The 1949 Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war defines PoWs as members of the armed forces captured during a conflict, or: Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, provided that such militias or volunteer corps fulfil the following conditions:

* That of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
* That of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
* That of carrying arms openly;
* That of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.

the al-Qaeda Terrorists don't comply with the laws of war. They go around killing innocent civilians and members of al-Qaeda captured on the battlefield ARE "unlawful combatants" and not subject to the Geneva Conventions. Al-Qaeda members don't wear uniforms ("fixed distinctive sign") or obey the laws of war..... they just murder in the name of Allah....

My apologies to everybody on this board for posting non-weather, i just have a hard time letting "crap" stick to the wall, without cleaning it off!


Zaphod and Baybuddy,

I believe that the revolutionary war was fought for individual rights. The only way we become the British in this situation is if we deny individual rights.

I do not think that ScienceCop said that (s)he was ever more concerned about one person's rights than any others. However, if you are concerned about the lives of US soldiers, closing Gitmo, Abu Graib and showing how a proper concern for citizens rights can function will do more to win over hearts and minds of terrorists and stop American bloodshed and increase America's safety than anything else.

You and I both would not hesitate to take up arms and fight to the last gasping breath for the USA, why should it be any different for the terrorists who are laboring under the delusion that the US is simply an imperial power come to invade thier land. I absolutly agree that terrorist scum should get what is coming to them but that doesn't equate to showing a disregard for human rights.

And as long as we are on the subject of Iraq, looking at the war strictly from a viewpoint of does it benefit America: this war was pushed through congress by GWB using the same rational that is so often shown in this subject: either you are for the RightWing or you are against America. Because of that, we have changed a stable situation into a loss of American lives, created a huge financial loss, lost the respect of many of our allies, lost any chance we had of winning over people in future terrorist breeding grounds, opened a second front so that we can no longer support Afganistan properly and lost any chance we had of stabilizing countries like Somalia.

I believe that the first sign of incompetence in a leader is the desire to increase his power via structural changes. The right stands for many things I believe in, fiscal conservatism, get up and go, trying to take care of yourself and helping others to do the same, less government, etc. But don't tell me that believing in human rights in any way is anti-American.

And by the way, at this point though I guess you may not want it from me, I thank you also for your contribution to America's safety. Sincerely.
Totally forgot, I logged on to ask a question about shear and got lost:

the link for the shear in the Wunderground leads to a page that always seems to have rosy conditions for things to develop and then I find out that shear has prevented development.

Does anyone have any better sources for shear predictions?
greentort. There are many different wind shear maps and different kinds of windshear also. If I understand it correctly. There is lots of windsheer information on StormJunkie.com

SJ
greentortuloni....Well said! Dubya continuously harps about spreading democracy...all he is really spreading is capitalism. That is not the def. of democracy.
Spreading democracy through the use of depleted uranium! Now that's what this country was founded on.....BullBleep!
192. MahFL
greentortuloni, I came the same conclusion as you about that shear link. I wonder if that chart needs tweaking ?
193. MahFL
Oh oh, looks like almost no shear over the GOM in 3 days time.........
StormJunkie ....In less than 72 hours the shear north of Cuba will be backing off a bit. The CMC has been a bit overboard but nobody can forget Alberto. Non-tropical, probably but never count CMC out till its over.

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