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South Florida disturbance; African dust

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2006

An area of disturbed weather over South Florida, the Bahama Islands, and Cuba is associated with a broad trough of surface low pressure and an upper-level low pressure system. Wind shear is down to 5-15 knots, which is marginally favorable for development. Water temperatures are very favorable, 28 - 29 C. The center of the upper low has drifted to a position at the extreme southwestern corner of Florida. There are a few impressive thunderstorms kicking up near the center of circulation, but this activity is of pretty limited coverage, and development into a tropical depression is unlikely today. Winds at the surface do show a U-shaped pattern (a trough) curving around an axis of low pressure in the region, but there is no closed circulation at the surface. There is only a closed circulation in the upper atmosphere.

Development is being hindered by the system's close proximity to land, and it will do better if it can move away from the coast. The NOGAPS model is suggesting that the low may move more into the Gulf of Mexico and show some slow development, but the rest of the models disagree. They indicate that the current low will not develop at all, but that a new low associated with the same surface trough of low pressure will develop on Saturday south of the Carolinas. This system would then get swept up the coast this weekend, possibly bringing strong winds to Cape Hatteras. The storm would continue moving up the coast, passing several hundred miles east of Cape Cod on Sunday night.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the blob of disturbed weather over South Florida.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large area of African dust covers the entire Atlantic between Africa and the eastern Caribbean, and will act to suppress tropical storm formation in those regions over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We'll just have to wait a while longer for a storm!! :(
interesting thi ve and trough keep moving westand the
models keep saying its going north i guess models dont look
at the satellites well and this vicious front has not moved our
little low off texas much and its through texas
maybe we should get these models some glasses lol
Just for everybody's info, yesterday Admin told everybody to stop posting the "First" messages on new blogs.
Morning everybody
Those storms were crazy last night. Some serious thunderstorms here in the Fla. Keys.
I believe the best chances of this blob to develop will come either Friday night or during the day on Saturday. We have a lot to look at the coming days for this blob and it will not go down without a fight like Alberto did, but this blob is in a much more favorable area for development, but due to it's proximity to Florida, is hindering its current developmental stages.
so is the blob going north or west?
Good morning. I posted something on Jeff's old blog. I'll post it here too. Florida is a dangerous state to live in, especially in late summer. Hypothetically speaking, would Florida be under a greater risk of succumbing to tropical disturbances if there were no Carribean islands? Would the greatest risk of storms come from the east or west? Thanks for your input.
Morning all. Hope everyone has a great day. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Fla Blob today.

Find all the models, imagery, marine data, and much more at StormJunkie.com. Also for those who have not seen there is a new Quick Links section to aid in rapid tracking of our weather.

Back to work. Chat with ya'll later.
SJ
Yawn..will be back in a few weeks when blob watching is a bit more interesting.
Good morning Storm. How are you?
Nice links Cregnebaa, thanks. - I guess you won't be working on your tan today!
It appears the ULL will end up in the Gulf rather than getting swept up by the TROF. It just seems like the center is too far SW for the TROF to grab it.
The Florida Blob, The Texas Blob and the Communist Blob all meet up in thee Bay of Campeche.....Now there's your Al Gore cane!
Warmed-over leftover from the last blog:

What I thought I was watching late last night/early morning was the FL ULL getting stretched out under deep southerly flow, with the northern part of the ULL getting pulled north over interior FL, while the southern part of the ULL escaped the worst of the southerly flow and has now entered the Gulf. Some of the model runs were calling for this scenario, with the convection and the associated upper-level high over the Bahamas getting sheared out in front of the trough, leaving behind the remnants of the ULL in the Gulf.

I'm wondering now if the models have exaggerated the amplitude of the east-coast trough. I don't see any big spokes of vorticity coming down to help it dig into FL, as predicted. We are left with a small Keys blob, with a possible surface circulation forming west of the convection, from what I am seeing (could be wrong on that, no surface station obs in that area, we need to see a northerly wind at the surface). Will this small area develop and survive through tonight? Warm SSTs and lowering shears in its immediate vicinity are in its favor, but with its small size, and with drier air and 20+ kt shear to its west, it won't take much in the way of adverse conditions for us to be soon watching the last little "poof" of our tiny Keys blob.

BTW, I hope the trough pushes quicky off of the northeast coast, so the people there get spared another round of unwanted rains from all that tropical moisture streaming up in front of the trough.
gninraelyrt, the Caribbean Islands protect FLA. Hurricane season would be MUCH scarier if there were no islands, just open water. Islands weaken storms when they pass over, even the interaction with land for an off-shore storm hinders its development. Greatest risk of storms (as it is today) would be from the east and south, least the west..
Interesting theory GulfScotsman. Even if you are joking about it, is it even possible for two or more to hurricanes to merge with each other and feed of each others energy to become even more powerful, or would is pose more of a hinderance to any developing system? Your thoughts please.
guygee....That's a good question. Hanging off in the GOM certainly favors that. I don't think it will happen right now...but it is still early. Things are going to get wetter over FL as the day progresses so that will enhance things. Could possibly see a tropical system at least or maybe even a TD if it continues off-shore like this. We'll see. Radar is not supporting any surface stuff yet. That can change fast.
two hurricanes can't combine..they would piroette around each other...a warm core tropical low and be attrated to a cold core low and merge..IE the perfect storm..Two hurricanes would repel each other..
warm core low can be attracted*
Two upper cold-cores won't merge...but it is an interesting scenario.
Thanks snowboy. I thought this might be the case, but this is the blog to ask the question. One more, at what point does the NHC issue alerts to coastal communities to evacuate. Does there have to be a hurricane threat, or can it be a large tropical storm system as well? I only hear about evacuations for hurricanes. Is this correct? Thanks for your comments.
Hello everybody, this is my first post here. I have lived in FL all my life, and I will tell you the biggest savior to this state is Cuba. I've seen numerous times storms that take a serious hit from the mountains in Cuba, easily dropping a Cat 3 to a Cat 1.
Local evacuations for flooding would be issued by local authorities...Emergency Management. NHC only makes recommendations about evacs in Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. State and locals make the last call.
Randrewl - You are right in that it is a scary place for any cyclone to be right now. Check out the water temperature at Station 42014 - W. FL Sea-Coos (25.25 N 82.21 W): 82.8 F, with Water Temp measurement depth: 50.0 m. That is some deep warm water in the vicinity, just a little ways north.
All hail Cuba!
It is interesting about Cuba and the effects that island has on storms. On the one hand the mountainous terrain helps us in Florida but at the same time it is one of the most active convection spawning grounds. Every day and sometimes all night convection just flares and flares all over the island this time of year. This also enhances any tropical wave moving through the area and assists in these larger storms we see moving into Mexico and up the GOM. Must be a love-hate thing.
Mornign Chris-You are right. I've watch many storms take the turn over Cuba. Some have even gotten "stuck" in the mountains. Good for S. FL-very band for Cuba.
GulfScotsman: CCB manifesto

What exactly is CCB for the acronym dummies in the crowd? Myself included, of course.

Ok, I get the piroette part of two merging hurricanes, but what about the hurricanes course and intensity? If the systems do repel each other, would they become intensified by that "piroette" effect, or weakened? I'm guessing weakened and drawing a line away from each other. Your ideas?
I would suspect if two hurricanes were in close proximity to each other,that one would weaken as the other steals the moisture content from the air...
Thinking of the hurricane markets, it would be most intriguing while projecting blobs, troughs and random cumulous clouds into the next named storms - it would be most interesting if for each projection, an element of risk must be introduced..such as having to put money down with each guess or other method of making it more interesting. I think this would make things a bit more interesting, and perhaps more accurate as a whole. I think also you may see less sqabbling as one could always shout "Scoreboard!" based on anyone's adverse opinion. Dunno, either this would enhance the blog, or make alot of people a few duckets lighter.

Just food for thought in an otherwise boring tropical day.
Red- I think he means Communist Cuba Blob (CCB)
Anybody got approximate coordinates of FB?
Chris, I agree - I live in the Tampa Bay area. Not only have the mountains of Cuba dismantled storms but also the flip side is forecast tracks struggled to factor in the effects. Many times, we have to wait and see where the exit is from Cuba before tracks gain accuracy. Cuba seems to spare the Tampa area year after year.
Communist Cuba Blob

hahahahahhaa
Thanks Randrewl for your input on NHC forced evacuation alerts. Tropical storms can be just as bad as hurricanes sometimes and I always worried that if the NHC downplayed the urgency to evacuate, coastal civilians would become victimized by an underestimate of a tropical storm's damage. Sounds like a good, but not perfect system may be in place.
Cuba sometimes seems to act like a funnel, with very warm SSTs south of the island, and sea currents and wind currents pulling storms up through the Yucatan channel into a very favorable area of the Gulf.

Which brings me to another topic, a request of sorts to some folks on this site:

When people from Cuba are posting, could we be nice and lay off of the politics? I would value some good observers in Cuba posting here on a regular basis. It is hard to get good surface observations on wind directions and pressure readings from Cuba, and those could be very valuable when the next big Cape Verde system takes that favored path south of Cuba and up through the Yucatan Channel. I don't think it is right to blame indviduals for whatever feelings you have against the government they happen to live under.

Thanks outrocket for your take on the effect of two merging hurricane systems. Maybe if one system is churning up toasty tropical water from the south while the other is raging in from the west, they would have more difficulty repeling in opposite directions and become more disorganized. Just a thought.
I live in Apollo Beach and I do know the western tip of Cuba does alter the track of approaching hurricanes threatening the Tampa area. We are also in a goofy spot geographically as it is hard for hurricanes to come in on that angle for a direct hit on Tampa.

Having said that, I do believe most people here are way too complacent and it is only a matter of time (probably short time) before a Cat3, 4 or even 5 hurricane smacks us in Tampa.
GulfScotsman - Don't think of it as being "PC", think of it as winning hearts and minds, one at a time.
when it comes to tropical storms and there impact the folks in the coastal areas are y our best source of knowledge as far as when to evacuate or not.....take it from me i work in emergency management
nash28 - Good point, the geography of Cuba may be responsible for the relatively small number of direct hits on Tampa compared to the much larger number of landfalls on the U.S. north Gulf coast.
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds
leave answers at my blog. Also there is how to prevent heat stroke this summer.
Usually Tampa's worst threat period is late in the hurricane season. That's when the winds shift and the jet stream dips further south and storms in the Gulf typically are steered NE into the West Coast of the state.
guygee

I didn't notice anyone picking on Cubans in here, thats a shame. They can't help their leader is a repressive dictator.
morning everyone. first post, really enjoy weather watching and have learned alot from you folks. very insightful
To be fair though, I don't think there is anything inherently offensive with Communist Cuba Blog.

It is after all, a communist country.
stormtop is well aware of whats going on in the se gulf of mexico...right now i am not ready to start issuing statements on this blob until tomorrow..it has a 20% chance right now to develop in my opinion...i will know more as my new data comes in later on tonight...you guys have a good day ill be back tomorrow to give you the latest my thinking of what this will do..whoever said the trough would not pick this disturbance up is correct the disturbance is to far south to be picked up...i will analyze thenew data and ill get back with you....StormTop
Blog=Blob
guygee - I agree. Living in the tropics, it is always a conflict to hope for a turn that will spare my world - the dark side of that hope is that if the turn happens - a cheer is quickly darken with the reality that another's world is going to be rocked. Politics have no place here...

Tampa area - yes, complacency is here. Last "close call" was Charley and the last minute duck south left us with sunny skies, no wind, no rain, and more complacency.
STORMTOP: stormtop is well aware of whats going on in the se gulf of mexico.

Thank God, I can sleep tonite.
June shall be declared - "Carribean Blob Month." Lot's of rain, but not alot of wind. Blame it on Sonny and Shear.
Amen Stormy. Unfortunately, I think we have to get punched in the mouth for some people to wake up.
Observation from Naples - I've been looking south all morning from the office, very dark to the south and west, and wind has slowly climbed, not much, but some. I think the daytime heating over land is really going to contribute to the convection around this thing. If the ULL moves further rest it could have a good amount of moisture to carry with it.
ummm.... on the nexrad..... does it look like our "U" is trying to become an "O"? LOL
nash28 - That comment on complacency is frightening. The big one will hit, eventually, and isn't Tampa just a notch or two below New Orleans on the list of most vulnerable cities for a major Hurricane strike?

Those late season storms tend to be hybrids; and Charley was destructive, but small and fast-moving. If a big Cape Verde major Hurricane ever come up through the Yucatan Channel and takes that hard right just north of Tampa, it is going to be a world of hurt, especially from the surge.
Yes Guy, Tampa is extremely vulnerable. Most of Tampa's structures are not up to code and if a big storm blew through here, everything would be ripped apart.
70. WSI
"I would suspect if two hurricanes were in close proximity to each other,that one would weaken as the other steals the moisture content from the air..."

That, and I think their windfields would disrupt each other.


weathercore.com
AWESOME!

StormTop..you did it! You have completed the final stage of self absorbsion! The third person reference of yourself was the final missing key. It seems this transformation came at the expense of losing the ST weather station tag. What a drag.

Well, Mother Nature, listen up...ST has spoken. Please position your blob appropriately in the Gulf per STs intent as to please ST and make him right for once in his life.

Otherwise, we are doomed to the secret stage of ST evolution where he may have to reveal his "secret information sources" - [a.k.a another weather site update]. Please Mother Nature..we beg..don't subject us to this final evolution of ST!

As usual.... '-)
Stormy2day - Somebody knowledgable passed this link on to me (thanks RW!), check exactly where you live to see your topography, in case you don't already know: TerraServer.

You have to use the search feature on the right, it won't work if you just click on the map. The road maps are very old, but if you know your lat-long by GPS, you can find detailed 5 ft contour maps of your area, and get a very good idea on what your risk is for storm surge once the big one is approaching.
I've lived in the Tampa Bay area since 83 and the worst I've experienced was Elena in 85. Stalled off our coast and beat the crap out of us for 3 days. My house is across from the Gulfport Marina (Boca Ciega Bay) - I returned home to a yacht resting in my front yard. I think Elena made landfall in Miss?
sayhuh

I lol'ed.
guygee - awesome link - thank you! Last year, the city installed poles at each street leading from the Bay showing water levels - Cat 1, Cat 2, etc. ...great for a wake up call, bad for property value. :-)
Stormy2day - Just off the top of my head, was Elena that crazy storm the did a couple of loops before landfall? Just checking the old memory instead of googling everything for a change.
now that we have something bubbling on the south and gulf side of FLA things get more interesting - for what it's worth, I don't see the trough pulling things from that far south with it..
Is the storm surge the worst part of the hurricane? Or is high winds more to blame because of duration of the event? Tornadoes effect the midwest, but they are mostly short-lived. Hurricanes are huge and generally have a predictable path. The wind damage in that path must be devastating to the coast, but I think that storm surge in "Katrina's" case was the worst problem. Is that right to say? People didn't talk about the winds so much with Katrina. She was CAT 3 just before landfall, right? Does that mean that the storm surge effect could have been CAT 4 considering it was so close to the coast when the wind intensity changed. Thanks for your comments.
lol sayhuh.

Two tropical systems in close proximity to each other should rotate around each other. This, for the most part is hypothetical. It is called the Fujiwara effect.

For those who may not have seen, StormJunkie.com can help you find all of the models, imagery, marine data, and much more to help you track our changing weather. There is also some nice WU blogger storm video here. Newest addition to the site is the Quick Links page to help you quickly access the weather data you want.

See ya'll later
SJ
GulfScotsman

You are just trying to throw them off your own tracks!

I know about the communist brainwashing you have endured, and sir, I have been there. Castro once tried to lure me into his arms with candy and the promise of a ride on his "yacht". Turns out it was his dingy.

I escaped, you should plan yours as well!

Don't be fooled, we can fight this.

/kidding? maybe. :)

great for a wake up call, bad for property value. :-)

LOL! I've lived in Satellite Beach on the east coast barrier island since '93, rented three different house before finally buying one. all within a few blocks of each other. But the one I own now is closer to 10 ft above sea level, while the last two were about 5 ft above sea level. Could make a big difference.

One thing about our beach, it must be one of the few rocky beaches in Florida. If you go 10 miles north it is all very fine sand, and pretty much the same to the south, but I went into the water on the beach directly east of me for the 4th, and nearly got my feet scraped off on the jagged rocks as the waves pushed and pulled me back and forth.
Folks, let's lay off ST - he has a wealth of knowledge and experience, even if he's a bit over the top in expressing his opinions. The blog would be a duller place without him..
guygee, elena was that storm. I remember the weather channel crew going back and forth(this was before they had a million crews running around).If it hadn't beensuch a serious situation it would have been funny.

gninraelyrt , yes the storm surge is the most dangerous. Now recently due to good warning rainfall has become the primary killer. That being said Stormsurge is easily the part with the potential to kill the most. Katrina was a good example, but we forget Katrina wasn't the worst storm effect here. The 1900 was MUCH worse. Internationally the cyclone that hit Bangladesh killed 100's thousands.

Tx
Posted By: gninraelyrt at 10:17 AM CDT on July 06, 2006.
Is the storm surge the worst part of the hurricane? Or is high winds more to blame because of duration of the event?

katrina showed us all that the saffir Simpson scale can fail...and fail it did. Katrina had a CAT3 wind field but her surge was an awsome CAT5 well over 20 feet along 3 states ...It just goes to show you ,you cant rate the damage or intensity by wind alone...
GulfScotsman

Yes, I know of nothing worse than politics on a message board. Noone will have their minds changed on the interwebs. I've seen too many, and never partake. It gets ugly, and why ruin a fun discussion?
gninraelyrt, with Katrina the disaster in NO was caused by poorly constructed and maintained dams and levees, and utter incompetence at all levels of government.

There was a severe storm surge (because she was Cat 5 earlier, and carried the equivalent of a Cat 5 storm surge in to landfall with her) and also severe wind damage in areas to the east of NO which has been underreported in the media.
The blog would be a duller place without him..

RedMosquito is not quite in agreement, but whatever. He'll get over it.
sorry guygee - I was busy checking out the link you sent...and putting my house up for sale!

Testing my memory with Elena - I don't remember much, I was fairly new to Florida and freaking out. I think it did loops for a few days and came within 100 miles of the coast. I remember being glued to the weather channel and my Mom (in Ohio) calling the Sheriff's office freaking out about my safety.
I do wish a new scale with size considerations was created. You know we do have people on this blog who are very capable of creatign such a scale.

Also when I said 1900 was worse I refer to death and winds. Katrina had a higer surge over a largeb area, very similar to carla with lower winds.
Just to touch on the "is the storm surge the worst part?"

If you live in close proximity to the coast then yes, but if you live 30 miles inland in a trailer, the wind will be the worst part, but flooding could be the worst part inland and along the coast. You have to understand your situation in order to determine what part of the storm will be the worst. IMHO.

Back to work
SJ
snowboy..you are absolutely right.

StormTop, my apologies, as you were absolutely correct - after a few revisions, you prediction of no tropical activity until after the 4th of July was dead on.

That being said, and appropriate kudos handed out, statistically, that prediction wasn't a stretch.

Aside from the mets that visit or participate on this blog, snowboy...aren't we all kinda guessing? Knowledge and experience should be shared, not dispensed in an "over the top" method. So based on this approach, and with all other things being equal, I think a bit of humor is a fair opposition to the condesending "over the top" approach.

But, I digress...and apologize for any offense that I may have caused.

;-)
outrocket
the amount of damage and what caused the damage differs from storm to storm. coastal areas normally suffer from surge more than wind and the farther inland you go the wind and rain do there thing.....tornadoes will spring up along the path also.....each storm is different...katrina did damage in alabama over 200 miles inland
Where is the FB now - is it below or above Key West - looks like just SW of KW
I think a bit of humor is a fair opposition to the condesending "over the top" approach.

Great point. Needed to be repeated.
the damage to no during katrina was small when compared to mississippi which actually took the hit
Regarding surge:
I am located behind barrier islands so while winds could do damage, surge is a greater danger. Surge forced into Boca Ciega Bay would become magnified with no north to south displacement possible. I also learned a few years ago to not put everything back to floor level just because the wind dies and the sun shines - surge came after and left me standing in the street begging it to stop because I had already undone all my surge prep. Now, I watch tide tables and eat dinner from atop a 5-gallon paint bucket long after the storm passes.
RedMosquito - LOL. Just catching up on your comments above and the related banter.

SUGARKING from Havana posted here on the last blog, and I am hoping he posts again when we need him.

I don't want any part of Cuban politics, there are some very bad feelings there, for generations, and it is just none of my business. I guess 'nuff said on the subject.

I'm out to get some work done today, before my wife kicks me out of the house... I'll be watching the "Key West blob" later...
SJ, your right I was strickly talking about what has the ability to kill the mostoverall. Each location(and storm is different). for example Charlie was a devestating wind event, but because of size not a real surge event. Also a storm that is strengthening on landfall has worse winds on the surface, otoh a weakening storm will have less wind damage, but can still have huge surge of its former self.
It now looks like our Florida ULL is now taking a more North Northeast direction on the latest visible imagery. It now is developing more convection and could move off the Florida Peninsula earlier then expected by Friday. If this was the case, this would give the disturbance more time over warmer water and a longer chance for it to gain tropical characteristics.
in general, surge is worse because water is heavier than air, so it has much more destructive power. but surge affects a limited area compared to the winds. ivan managed to destroy my grandmother's house in alabama that was 150 miles inland (tree blew over on it).
guygee

Don't want ya in trouble, go get some work done!

*cracks whip*
katrina was a cat 4 not no cat 3 land fall you think a cat 3 hurricane can do all that damage and pass the A storm back in 1992 but that one may land fall at 1st at cat 4 then the nhc update uher to a cat 5 land fall katrina was a cat 4 at land fall not no cat 3 the nhc did the worg thing by make her a cat 3 at land fall when she sould be a cat 4 at land fall sorry if i sould offense to evere one sit mad at the nhc lol
those things are so stretched out i can hardly even call them blobs. more like smears.
commets are welcome on the post i did thanks
RedMosquito One more LOL! At a certain age, you just get "whipped". It is inevitable.
Catch you later.
ahhhh yes rwdobson, a new term for us to consider: a "smear"!!!

We will need to start a list of WU definitions, including blobs, blobs with ambition, bloblets, smears, wavelets, and other denizens of the tropical atmosphere..
Taz, many on this site agree with you that Katrina at landfall was more likely a Cat 4..
txweather and snowboy - thanks for your wisdom. I remember going through the hurricane archives. Forgive me if I'm wrong but was the 1900 cane named "The Great Galveston Hurricane?" How many times has Galveston been threatened but a tropical disturbances since records of tropical activity began? It's probably more than the states of Mississippi and Alabama have undergone, because those state are on a more unlikely hurricane path, right?
: snowboy then why did the nhc made her a cat 3 at land fall that dos not see right do you
: snowboy if i find one cat 5 or cat 3 or 4 land fall this year and the nhc down siz it to cat 3 i am going to kill the nhc for it
We had a tremendous display of lightning and thunder since 4:00 a.m. CDT today and got 1.5 inches of rain overnight from the CCB-LOL. Starting to clear now however. I am on here daily even though I dont blog often if any of you ever need info on weather conditions here in the Cayman area as it seems that we are becoming one of the main spawning grounds for storms.--Caymanite.
well sayuh saying no trpical activity until after july 4
deserves as much recognition as the nfl saying preseasongames wont count this year
thats really going out on a limb lol the little low looks worse than yesterday the trough
more than likely will sheer it out where it stands tx blob looks worse and wave south of cuba
isheded to yuc peninsula. so maybe its time to go back down hurricane reminiscing AGAIN FOR ITS
shear time in the city looing weak and looking silly
hmmm.... if the ull is on the move n-nne, maybe the trough "will" pick it up afterall.....

looks like the ull low could emerge around palm beach or fort pierce, later today......

will be interesting to see what happens......
How about a 3.8?
Looks wet and noisy in Miami right now. Anybody there?
WNstorm...i disagree!!
gninraelyrt, Galveston is kind of like NO, it should get hit all the time, but doesn't. But in all seriousness these things go in cycles. Historically tx is 2nd to FL for hurricanes. But the worse have for some reason always hit the mid coast. The bad news is that for Tx is that later in the great storm cycle is when we get hit and hit bad. Right now (as Fl was in the 80's) we're in a storm drought. Of course Miami has avoided the big ones since 1960(Donna).

Last year kind of worried me because you could see the westward shift in landfalls overall taking place, of course that could be paranoia.

On a side note, when I talk about how we don't know that last year was the worst for 5, an example is the 1900 storm. How strong was that storm at it max. 125, 150, 175? The answer we don't know, we know roughly how strong it was when it hit land, but was it at its peak. Probably not, so the answer can not be made.

That one chore I see for myself. As a person who has studied hurricanes and has the degrees to prove it, I see it as my job to dispell myths and provide knowledge(and gain knowledge, because it still happens). Thats what this blog does so well(when we don't have off topic name calling).
TX
I think that area SW of FL will develop what do you think???
I disagree with WNstorm too!!
That one chore I see for myself. As a person who has studied hurricanes and has the degrees to prove it, I see it as my job to dispell myths and provide knowledge(and gain knowledge, because it still happens). Thats what this blog does so well(when we don't have off topic name calling).
TX


and you do that well TX...thanks..
Katrina was a cat 3 at landfall. The reason she did so much damage is because she had a cat 5 storm surge. But by wind speed which is the determining factor she was a 3. Maybe in the future the rating scales should put a higher weight on surge since flooding is the biggest killer not wind.
that area SW of florida will not be developing any time soon, if ever. it's being stretched out along the upper trough. a smear, not even a blob, which makes me think: maybe i should get bagels (w/schmeared cream cheese) for lunch today.
those who disagree w/WN...why? what are you basing it on? it is really hard to say either way, but it is very common to go through July w/no named storms.
i disagree because of all the blobs so far....it,s a trend
RW- Bagels,yummy!

I am wondering the same thing about July storms, why not?
ya but there is to much happening to not have another named storm in July.
that was to rwdobson
Thank you outrocket, I(and evrybody else) was real worried when you were out of touch after Katrina. Thats really important too, because we all(those who watch severe weather) have a tendency to become cheerleaders for the storm. We need to understand that this is real and not some intellectual exercise.
TX
Katrina was a Cat. 4 at land fall vortextrance
txweather...that is so true...this can be very serious business and thanks for reminding us
We have Rain!!!
In my opinion, too much emphasis is placed on tracking the eye and wind speed and not near enough attention on surge potential. I know from living it, that a storm with the right path and speed doesn't have to come any where close to landfall in/around Tampa Bay to bring the water over our seawall and knocking at our doors.

There have been numerous times when I'm yelling at the TV (which for the record, changes nothing) while watching NWS folks "act" like they can barely stand in a 40mph wind. All the focus is on the wind and the eye. Having accurate and easy to find surge projections is critical - people need time to compare those projections to their tide table to have enough time to react and plan.
txweather..I feel as though both your last statements are correct. This is real, and it is an intellectual exercise. Because of the reality, I think it facilitates the intellectual nature to predict. If it wasn't real, obviously..no one would care.

Symantics I know..but keeping it real.

LOL
Chessrascal, thats a hard call. It was officially a 4 at landfall in LA, but upon further review we had a reversal and it was lowered to 3. Personally I think it was hard to say either way and it should have been a 4 just because I believe that unless you have irrefutable evidence(same opinion on Andrew upgrade, it stinks) you shouldn't alter what was originally observed. OTOH we're only talking 10mph ,IRC, here so it really is a nonissue.
while the debate of Katrina's landfall CAT status continues among so many who rarely disagree i pose the following: In most things in life there is some "final" authority who makes a final decision regarding a situation or event. IE: Parents decide what a child's punishment is, Business owners decide who to hire or fire, Supreme Courts decide constitutional cases, Leaders of countrys decide if we go to war or not. In the case of Hurricanes the NHC is the deciding enity. While I agree that any of these may not be always be right in their decision there comes a point where the outsiders need to shut up and move on.
147. Inyo
The difference between a very strong cat 3 and a very weak cat 4 is 1 mph (5 for practical purposes due to wind estimation methods.) In any event, you are arguing over a 5mph difference which is totally irrelevant. it was either a strong 3 or a weak 4 on landfall as far as winds go... but the storm surge was very intense as noted earlier. As in ecology, meteorology is an inprecice science and things other than 'strength' such as size of the storm, forward momentum, etc affect wind speed a lot.
I'm heading off to work with my dad. I will post as soon as I get home. In the meantime, we will have to watch this upper level low move off the Florida southeast coastline. Convection is beginning to build back in and the low is moving to the north northeast and will be offshore in five or so hours, then the real action will begin to take place. This low has a ton of life in it and will not just dissipate with favorable conditions in front of it. A named storm could develop by Sunday and a depression by Saturday. New England has to watch this storm depending on how strong it is as it comes up the coastline then we will know how bad it will get up here. Only time will tell.
Tne CMC has a storm forming in campeche and moving into texas in a couple days.
Anyone? Is this ULL gonnabe picked up cold front does not looks like its cut south enough??...also what are everyones thought and the convection flareing up to the east??
152. WSI
"We have Rain!!!"

We had some this morning! The drought is going away in a hurry. :)

weathercore.com
surface pressure
excellent point Inyo
Any thoughts on the blob near cuba?
Guys, unless I am blind the ULL is not being picked up by the TROF and moving back east. It appears to me that while some of the ULL may be split off and carried NE, most of the system and convection on the E side is moving through the FL Straits and will end up in the Gulf. Thoughts??
anyine know why gainesville is so incredibly hot today?
current temp is 106 forecast to hit 108.
nowhere else in florida is even close to that
campeche...something might happen there, tail end of a front kinda thing. who knows. shear and dry air are still pretty strong.

i think shear is the reason that june and july are usually slow months for hurricanes.
Looking pretty bad all around for tropical systems, Personally I like a big monster cat 5 as much as the next person. But I taking boring as heck over the 2005 season of hellstorms any old day.

SO how was everyone's 4th? All the wundergrounders in the southlands keep cool?
sayhuh, you have a point and the good side of this blog. it makes us think. Think of blobs like the ones off Fl as practice exercises for when we have one with a chance.

Let me tell a story about what I was aiming at though. Several years I was at a severe weather conference and a city showed their plan for a natural disaster(no it wasn't new Orleans, but another major city). At a lunch afterwards me and several other people were laughing at how stupid and hopeless their plan was. To us it was like we were looking at a game where the people responsible didn't know how to play, THEY DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THE RULES. Looking back I feel bad because it not a laughing matter(I don't know what constructive we could have done, often people who create such plans take critisism very personally and ignore). But to us at the time it was just like a game. We always need to remember that there are real people involved. I speak as a reformed storm cheerleader.

So yes we can do the intellectual work, but lets remember that it real.

that must be an error (gainesville 106). did someone at gainesville NWS move the thermometer into the sun?
TPA...one word :continentality(your reason for temp is land heats faster than water and being inland land mass is your temp provider today)
if that was true, ocala and orlando would also be very hot.
Yes your right dobson, the other inland cities arent nearly as hot

Yesterday afeternoon I reported the severe local thunderstorm we suffer here in Havana during the afternnon.
Today we learned that there were very heavy rains in the hole province, with flooding of up to one meter in some
areas speaceally in Regla,Diez de Octubre, Arroyo Naranjo, Marianao,Cerro, Playa, Guanabacoa Centro Habana y Habana Vieja.
The tunnels of Fifht Avenue and Linea were floded, but now transit is restored.
We suffer severe thunderstorms that blackout half of the City, but is almost back to normal now and we had winds of up to 108 kilometers pour hour that carried debris so there were some damages to building and shops because of that.
In Marianao precipitations reached 49,8 milimeters in only 50 minutes.
There were many fallen trees. Theare no rpt no reports of casualties.It seems we could have a a repetition of that type of severe thunderstorms today or tomorrow in the western part of Cuba.I will keep you posted.
That dont make the term wrong..or the idea,there are microclimates in weather
I call Shenanigans(Remember south park) on that ob. It seems way out of the area. The higherst i see is 95.
Tx
where is the ull now, i cant find it?
could be a glitch....maybe the thermometer dropped close to pavement...LOL
Gainesville NWS: Link

There is a weak cold front moving into north FL this afternoon and evening. You are experiencing this high heat because...I forget what you call that transition zone ahead of a front. Anyway temps will hit very high when this happens...so I would expect some weather out of the front.
a microclimate
actually I keep thiking of AIRPLANE. Remember the guy who unplugged the runway lights.
Ya where is this ull now i cant find center either??
Still 106 is just not right. Nowhere else is that being reported.
it's not 106 in gainesville. pre-frontal compression or not, it's just not that hot. the gainesville NWS would be mentioning the excessive heat in the short-term forecast if it were real...instead their forecast calls for low 90s.

good afternnoon guys just checking in.....
Wicked storms across Palm Beach County currently. No warnings yet, but 37 mph gust at PBIA at 1:33pm. I've had 1 1/2" of rain in 30 minutes at my house and 1" in just 13 minutes, here in Boynton Beach.
181. MZT
Saharan dust and the inhibition of storms, may just be giving the Gulf and Carribbean more time to heat up. August/Sept will be interesting.
Hey I need to go, but here's a neat site.It mentions many aircraft incidents and safety issues. I was browsing wake turbulence and cell phone. Kids PLEASE don't use cell phones on planes.
http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/report_sets.htm
183. PBG00
Getting real dark and nasty here..afternoon everyone
I have a Blob right over my house ! Weather service said rain and bad weather after 2pm and it is now raining. Imagine that?
We are getting hammered in Port St. Lucie, possible funnel cloud, raining to hard to geta good look.
186. PBG00
I just drove through that blob Rand..I have another blob over my house now
Is the ULL under convection?
thanks for the update SUGARKING, hope you and yours are not too badly affected by the storms..
Hey guys. Send some of that rain up to Tampa will ya?? Seems like the moisture is moving AWAY from us when it was supposed to be moving toward the Gulf.

Maddening.
Looks like the Gainesville reading just dropped back to 90, haha. I guess it has been experiencing some trouble. Take a look at today's history so far. 77 to 91 from 6:53 to 7:53 AM? I don't quite think so. lol
Tropical discussion:

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 90 NM
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO HONDURAS. ONE LOW CENTER IN THIS TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE NEAR 27N81W WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 24N84W. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
Looks like the ULL has moved generally east/ne toward the eastcoast of FL and has hit some the hot GulfSteam waters and the convection has responded. If that trouf stalls, the the NW, this system may linger off the southeast coast of FL and develop. What are your guys/gals thoughts on this developing weather system?
Hey guys, first post here. Have been a weather nut for years - mainly dealing w/tornadoes (as you can probably tell by the Okie in the screenname!). Hurricanes are a new, fascinating element for me & I've got to find a way to ride w/the Hurricane Hunters someday!

Anyway, was wondering if anyone had any insight/predictions regarding the FL Panhandle in the coming days. Got a family vacation set for Destin/Ft Walton area starting July 14th (wk from Friday). I'd assume our latest "blob" will have done whatever its going to do by then. Or am I wrong? The high SSTs scare me...but I don't know much else about the models or other forecasts regarding other key factors. Any insight is appreciated, and I will be watching very closely over the next week.

Thanks!
SouthLAOkie...Welcome. Check here:

Link
looks to me the ull low has emerged on the atlantic coast near ft. lauderdale......

quite a bit of covection to the east......

guess we'll see if anything happens if this low move away from land a little....
Welcome Okie

You can find some great information at StormJunkie.com.

Three low pressure centers?

I'll talk to ya'll later, got to get back to work.

SJ
things are perking around S FLA, we could see something come out of this yet - but it won't be today..
That huge red blob of convection right over the coast of Costa Rica is not good. Here's a link to weather conditions:Link

Pressure is falling
SJ,

you getting the rain yet? Its pouring here, off Dorchester Road.

I think this thing is gonna ride up the coast like the last one, but we'll have to watch and see!
200. WSI
Hey Okie. Welcome!

"The high SSTs scare me.."

Just remember, that is but one part of the equation. It's not good to have high SST's, but its not the end of the world either. Dr. M even had a blog a week or two ago about how some parts of the Atlantic cooled off because of cloud cover. A lot can happen that can fluctuate them either way.

weathercore.com has a nice tropical forecasting tutorial that covers the basics. You might find it interesting since you are new to tropical weather. Shows many of the variables that go into tropical systems, including SST's. Again, welcome!
Howdy guys and gals. I've been lurking around here for a couple of weeks and just wanted to say that this is a very informative and entertaining forum.
As a surfer I try to stay educated and a couple of days ahead of the waves. I live in Tampa so hurricane season is my only hope of catching warm waves.
Have you ever been to this area before, Okie? If not, and even if you have, you'll enjoy it once you get here. You should not have anything to worry about in terms of tropical weather; it won't be like last year where we had Category 3 Hurricane Dennis come ashore just west of Navarre Beach on July 10. In terms of the tourist season, it was the worst time of year that it could have hit. Tourists eventually did return though.
Hey StormJunkie... Are you in Charleston? I grew up in Summerville. Boy was Hugo a fun one!
GulfScotsman...I'll tell you it sure has my attention! Port Limon is right on the coast there and are right where that red blob is situated.
BTW the blob is offshore from Nicaragua and Honduras, not Costa Rica. So a reading from Honduras would be better...
207. WSI
FloridaSurfr, I live in NC, and Hugo was a CAT1 up here. Tore us up bad up here. Couldn't imagine what it was like down there for you all.
quakeman55...You're absolutely correct. Sorry. I had Roatan up to link. Then switched and got all jumbled up. Anyway Roatan is not reporting for the past six hours. That island is right ahead of the blob. Other Honduran stations are showing no pressure drops.
I was about 45 miles inland but we got hit pretty hard. The tornados were the worst part for us. We lived in the middle of the woods. Lost thousands of trees and didn't have power for a month. I was about 12 or so at the time so it was kind of fun not having school and all.
210. WSI
I was 10 at the time, and we didn't have power for 10 days. No school for us either, LOL!
We need to hear from the blogger that lives in Utilla, Honduras. Utillawatch....are you on here?
There are a few stations that are, like Tegucigalpa, Catacamas, and Nueva Ocotepeque. But I don't know how far away from the blob those sites are.
Tegucigalpa is way interior. Any other coastal locations are showing no pressure drops yet. Roatan or Utilla are the ones we need.
San Pedro Sula would be good also.
as if there weren't enough to keep an eye on, just saw this which is showing up nicely on the wv images:
A NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 25N92W...DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
This is interesting from Belize City, Belize: Link
Much appreciated guys! The suggested links are now in the ol' Favorites.

Yes, Quakeman...have been a few times. We moved to South LA (Denham Springs) a few years ago from OK, & I love being so much closer to the beaches of MS/AL/FL. It is a great place to visit, I just worry about it lately w/all the increased activity...and I remember some relatives in Pensacola really taking a beating from Ivan. All I ask is 5-6 clear days at the beach!

Thanks again guys, & I may be "bugging" you again as the trip approaches. And hey, I'm a quick learner, so maybe someday I'll actually contribute something!
snowboy...Isn't that the Texas ULL that moved off earlier?
Center of blob is closer to Puerto Cabeza Honduras if anyone can find wx report from there
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

comments or answers
Caymanite.....How about here: Link
jphurricane2006...Look at them right now man.
New blog is up.
Oh yes...Ivan really raked Pensacola...my classes were suspended for three weeks after that, as the University of West Florida's main campus is in Pensacola. It's a relatively small university of about 8,000 students (as opposed to the 30,000 or whatever that go to UF), and Ivan managed to down 2,000 trees on campus. Talk about a cleanup job!
Randrewl, it could have formed from the remnants - anyways, it is situated perfectly for development and we'll see what happens over the next couple of days..