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South Atlantic tropical depression dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:39 AM GMT on February 25, 2006

Satellite images and wind measurements from the Quikscat satellite show that a rare tropical depression in the South Atlantic probably formed for a few hours today, but the storm has since been sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and is not a threat to re-develop. Although the storm was tropical, had a closed circulation, and winds of up to 35 mph (according to the Quikscat satellite), it only had those characteristics for about three hours today. The National Hurricane Center usually does not designate a system as a tropical depression unless it can hold together for at least six hours. The system formed near 29S 36W, about 600 miles southeast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over waters of about 27 degrees C--well above the 26 C threshold needed for tropical storm formation.


Figure 1.Visible image from 1613 GMT February 24, 2006, taken by the polar-orbiting AQUA satellite, showing a possible tropical depression that formed in the South Atlantic.

Are South Atlantic tropical cyclones a sign of climate change?
Only one hurricane and two tropical depressions have been observed in the South Atlantic since 1970, when accurate tracking methods became available with the advent of weather satellites. There is usually too much wind shear to allow a tropical cyclone to form, and the South Atlantic lacks an active "Intertropical Convergence Zone" (ITCZ)--that stormy band of weather that stretches along the Equator and acts as a source region for many of the disturances that grow into Northern Atlantic hurricanes. With Hurricane Catarina of March 2004, another tropical depression in January 2004, and now yet another "near miss" tropical cyclone in the South Atlantic, I believe is it time that the NHC considered adopting a naming system. Had today's system intensified into a tropical storm, it would not have been given a name, since there is no naming system for the South Atlantic Ocean. It's quite possible that the recent activity in the South Atlantic is due to climate change causing wind shear levels to drop over the South Atlantic. The alternative explanation is that we are seeing an active period that has a long cycle, and last repeated itself before satellites were around. Given the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) that affects hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, it is reasonable to think we might see a similar pattern in the South Atlantic. In either case, it's time we had a system in place to start naming these storms to avoid confusion.

My next blog will be on Monday, a discussion of the proposed NWS staff reductions via an early retirement plan. Will we lose our best forecasters at the NHC and other NWS forecast offices?

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

are best forecasters at the NHC? oh no that would not be good for 2006 we need are best forecasters to keep us all up to date a lot can go lol if we do not have are best forecasters for 2006

:( I really wanted to see this develop, if just out of curiousity.
I know Colby, most of us did, I tried to keep ya'll from getting your hopes up last night. She was so small & so close to an on slaught of shear. It was horrible to watch this afternoon~ her convection tore from her circulation in such a graphic fashion. She can live in our hearts as the tiny South Atlantic storm of 2006 that almost made it. Bless her, just 3 more hours & she'd have been history...
Dr Masters or anyone who may know...A question I have for you which is a bit dated, however I am still interested in the answer.
At the time of hurricane Epsilon you mentioned in one of your entries that sea surface temperatures were unusually warm (2 degrees warmer). I was wondering when you used the word unusually if you were basing it on a temperature difference between a non- La Nina event and a La Nina event, like the one we are experiencing now. I ask you this because looking back at SSTs from the year 2000 when we had a La Nina, SSTs around the location where Epsilon spawned were considerably warmer than when a non-La Nina event was occuring.

Thanks in advance and for the continued updates as well.
Skyepony, you depicted the demise of our tropical friend so dramatically it almost brought a tear to my eye.
That was short lived but worthy of the history books! Tropical Depression One-Q (my self-designation, because of the Q in the lists originally calling in 90Q.INVEST) is also forgotten by most!
But isnt this an example of the sort of developing storm that likely would have gone undetected before satellites? One that is sheered apart soon after it begins to develop.
Oh, sorry, I missed that part of your post, Dr. Masters.

And Ill be interested to read your post on the reductions. Ive been wondering about that.
By the way, is there anyplace that has models for the South Atlantic like these for the North Atlantic?

Also, the latest model runs (here) no longer show any warm-core systems in the South Atlantic.
I don't know if South Atlantic systems are related to the North Atlantic - there were two South Atlantic systems in 2004 and the 2004 hurricane season began in August. However, I would not be surprised to see an early storm, after the last couple months (Zeta and several almost-storms and disturbances). Another thing to think about: is warming reduces shear in the South Atlantic, it might have the same effect in the North Atlantic (for example, the AMO results in warmer waters and less shear).
13. Inyo
These hurricanes in odd locations lately are weird.

I am interested in the possibility that a global warming pattern or other cyclical fluxuations could cause a hurricane to make landfall in southern California. This is not an impossibility... it happened in 1934. It also almost happened in 1997. Even without any warming, it is likely that this will happen again in the next 100 years. I would imagine warming would increase the chances, although this is not a given, if it lead to a stronger California Current or suppressed Pacific activity in favor of Atlantic hurricanes.

The primary threat isnt wind... during a good santa ana we get gusts well over 80 mph. I would imagine the steep coastline and the presence of the channel islands would also diminish storm surge. However, during the tropical storm of 1934, 12 inches or so of rain in a day fell on Mt Wilson, which led to flash flooding. A full-fledged hurricane would bring more rain than this.. and in addition, there's a lot more development now than in 1934.

In any event, El Nino tends to favor these storms and La Nina tends to weaken them.. so it isnt likely to happen next year.



Why does everybody talk about the upcoming hurricane season as being "next year", when it starts in 3 months?
Michael, I do it too. I think it's because it's clearly not 'this year' (i.e., no storms are forming right now).
In some ways, a more active season might be better because storms cool water that they cross over and as a result the opportunity for very intense Katrina-like storms decreases. Of course, even a tropical depression making landfall can be deadly and destructive from rainfall. As for if the U.S will be struck as many times as in the last two years will depend on the presence of high pressure off of the East coast. I also found this, linking dry Mays in Florida to a increased hurricane threat for Florida.
19. Inyo
well, one of the take-home messages is that tropical storms or hurricanes may hit California (i found another record of one in the 1850s), but we are totally unprepared.
Maybe we can save Greenland's ice caps after all. ~Link lol

Couldn't find the article on a their newscast i caught a glimpse if~ The GOES N got unloaded from it's launch vehicle & put back into storage, while work is done on the vehicle. The weather satilite tested well but will have to wait til I think at least early summer for launch.
Inyo -
I look at your links and found that a Category 1 hurricane hit San Diego on October 2, 1858 (the only storm to hit California as a hurricane).
the last hit in 1939 not 1934
there was this as well~
Due to the rotation of the Earth, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere tend to move from east to west. The upper level westerlies are required to bring Eastern Pacific storms, which typically remain at sea, northward and northeastward. Another inhibiting factor for a California landfall is the water temperatures. Because of the water currents, the waters off California are rarely above 70 F, which is too cold for hurricanes to sustain themselves.

From the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, you had linked ~ seems rising SST is a key to allow it in the 1st place, but unless the world quits turning, I wouldn't expect back to back hits.
25. Inyo
oops, the 1934 was a typo.. it was indeed 1939. sorry guys.

anyway, i don't know if i fully buy the whole 'hurricanes tend to move from west to east' thing.. hurricanes very often get caught in the mid-latitude weserlies and curve towards the east... especially in the atlantic.

the SST's are the big limiting factor. and unless the pacific current breaks down (i havent heard any theories that this might happen, is it linked to the gulf stream in any way?) they SST's won't get too much higher off of CA.
26. Inyo
ugh more typos. what i meant to say was, i disagree that hurricanes generally move towards the west, rather than recurve towards the east, as that article implied
my new blog is up and some new i think ever one would like to see and will NOT updat in tell monday and i mean it this time around so have fun on my blog
VOTE CANINE

SAN FRANCISCO -- Officials in San Francisco are stepping into something new -- recycling doggie doo to generate power. Norcal Waste, a garbage hauling company, will collect droppings from a popular dog park. The droppings will go into a machine called a methane digester -- a tank in which bacteria feed on feces to create methane gas. That gas could then be piped directly to a gas stove, heater or anything else powered by natural gas. It can also be used to generate electricity. The technology is already used on chicken, hog and dairy farms. San Francisco has plenty raw material for poo power. Residents of the city own an estimated 240,000 dogs and cats. City officials said Rover, Tabby and their pals produce about 6,500 tons of doo a year.
LOL - Poo Power!
StormChaser, for the love of God, learn when to capitalize your sentences!

Cyclone Carina is stunning tonight, 65kt and strengthening fast.
Many hurricanes have made landfall on the southern half of Baja California
By the way, UW-CIMSS has animated microwave imagery here (DO NOT click on the Java option).
stormchaser77 wrote:


"For The East Coast The Bermuda High Will Be The Key.
I have been Told a 1,000 Times It does Not Sit In The
Same Place after an Unusally Active Season Like Last
year. So That Will Be an Interesting Feature To Watch.
In any event I Believe The East Coast is Long Overdue
For another Big One Sometime Soon. 17 years Since Hugo
is Hard To Believe. The Gulf Coast Got There Fair Share
Last 2 SEASONS ....So Who's Next?"


i have two questions regarding this statement, well one question actually::
1) what is the bermuda high? is that something similar to the jet stream or some type of wind pattern? just curious to know because i've never heard that phrase before.

2) it's been some rough hurricanes since hugo hit. fran in 96 was a good one, kept me awake the entire night as it made a direct hit over our city some 350-400 miles inland, don't forget floyd in 99. the entire state of florida was evacuated it seemed like and then it made a turn to the northwest and gave the eastern part of nc a good dumping. and, last but not least, isabel in 2003 did a lot of damage from the outer banks all the up to maryland. it even created a new inlet at cape hatteras which i think has since been filled in. haven't been there since isabel gave the cape a facelift.

however, i saw firsthand the damage caused by hugo but, had it been a slow moving storm instead of a fast moving storm it wouldn't have done the damage it did windwise IMO.
correct me if i'm wrong but, by reading dr. masters entry, wasn't catarina named only because of where it struck? catarina brazil?
37. F5
stansimms72,

BERMUDA HIGH - A semi-permanent, subtropical area of high pressure in the North Atlantic Ocean that migrates east and west with varying central pressure. Depending on the season, it has different names. When it is displaced westward, during the Northern Hemispheric summer and fall, the center is located in the western North Atlantic, near Bermuda. In the winter and early spring, it is primarily centered near the Azores Islands.

The Bermuda High, depending on strength and location, is one of the primary steering mechanisms for hurricanes.
thanks f5.
I half expected to see the government announce accelerated retirements; assure the public that no one would be muzzled and then find an alternative way to accomplish the same thing. Typical of their science viewed through an ideological gauze.
I'm new to weather sites so what I'm looking for may be out there but I just don''t know where to look. I'm curious if anyone has equated the sea surface temperature increase to an energy equivalent. To many a couple of degrees doesn't sound like much of anything but when you apply it to something like the Gulf of Mexico - different matter.
There is a very good article about our dependence on coal for power in the March National Geographic. It also mentions coal gasification/cleaner technologies.
Inyo - I had read about the 1939 Long Beach tropical storm before and was quite impressed with the damage it did and the rainfall totals. Even downtown LA had over 5" for a record September rainfall. Like you say, the excessive rainfall would be the primary threat if a full-fledged hurricane ever hit Southern California.

Here in Colorado, remnants of tropical storms moving up from the southwest often bring us beneficial moisture in late summer or early fall, although flash floods have occurred from the heavy thunderstorms a few times. You mentioned that a tropical storm almost made it to Southern California in 1997. That of course was an El Nino year (the start of the very strong 1997-98 El Nino). It was also the wettest summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) we ever had in Denver, and a deadly flash flood occurred in Fort Collins in late July. I'd have to check and see if moisture from a tropical system contributed to that, or to the Big Thompson flood in 1976.

Finally, a bit of trivia. The remnants of an east Pacific hurricane in 1992 (Lester, I believe) dropped 2-3" of rain on Denver the very same day that Andrew hit Florida!
winds storm of 1995 is coming are way in ca
Inyo - I just backed up and read your link about Hurricane Linda in 1997. Wow! The potential is certainly there for one to hit Southern California and do some major damage. I'm going to go to Wikipedia to check out past hurricane seasons. I didn't realize they had so much information there on 'canes.

Also, whoever posted the link about the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm hitting Florida, thanks! I'm still a newbie on here and learning so much, and you can tell I live in a landlocked state!

FROM 996 MB AT 18Z
MONDAY TO 987 MB AT 00Z TUESDAY...9 MB IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. BY 00Z
TUESDAY THE LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO...WITH THE GFS
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO AND THE NAM 250 MILES WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE LOW AT 986 MB. BY 06Z TUESDAY (MONDAY EVENING) THE GFS CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW...TO 984 MB (29.05 INCHES) WHICH IS VERY RARE
FOR A SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH


winds storm of 1995 i new it vary windy

...TO 984 MB (29.05 INCHES) WHICH IS VERY RARE
FOR A SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH

wow big big big storm did the 1995 wind storm have a 29.05 inches wow i can not wait for this big storm to come my way wow wow wow!!!!!!!
KRWZ, looks like you may get hammered! Denver is forecast to get close to 70 for the high on Tuesday. We'll see what happens after that.
stormchaser wrote::


"StanSimms ..You are Right about those Particular Storms
But none compare to the Devasting Hugo. I was Thinking
in terms of "Major" Storms. It has been quite awhile
for the East Coast and with the increse in Storm Activity
The Past Several Years The East Coast Has Been Quite Lucky.
North Carolina In Particular."



actually, the only part of north carolina that got hit by hugo was western nc. it tore charlotte up pretty good and pretty much everything else in westen n.c. all the way up towards west va. it came ashore in charleston sc, gave charleston and myrtle beach a huge (no pun intended) facelift. i'm sure an outer band came across the nc coast around wilmington considering that city is only an hour north of myrtle beach.

to be honest with you, i do believe that is the last time a hurricane has made landfall in south carolina. not counting charley of course. yeah, it hit myrtle beach as a cat 1 but, that was after it had vacationed in florida for a few hours the day before. i could be wrong and probably am. i'm sure they've had storms make landfall since hugo that were less intense. i would probably remember an intense storm since i'm so fascinated about them.
also stormchaser, in regards to the last sentence in your post that i just previously replied to, you said north carolina in particular.

don't tell the people in western carolina that they have been quite lucky. asheville nc and towns around that area were hit pretty hard in 2004. they got the bands of ivan, jeanne, and frances when they were just tropical depressions but they had major flooding. even part of the blue ridge parkway collasped because of all the erosion due to the large amounts of rain. matter of fact, as of mid-december of 2005, that part of the parkway is still closed. over a year later. not the damage you would see on the coast but, enough damage to stop a small town from running business as usual.
Not to mention Isabel in '03.

Stormchaser, the fantasy hurricanes and info on them can be found here (you can't post without signing in [too many spammers], but you can view)
FROM 996 MB AT 18Z
MONDAY TO 987 MB AT 00Z TUESDAY...9 MB IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. BY 00Z
TUESDAY THE LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO...WITH THE GFS
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO AND THE NAM 250 MILES WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE LOW AT 986 MB. BY 06Z TUESDAY (MONDAY EVENING) THE GFS CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW...TO 984 MB (29.05 INCHES) WHICH IS VERY RARE
FOR A SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH


winds storm of 1995 i new it vary windy

...TO 984 MB (29.05 INCHES) WHICH IS VERY RARE
FOR A SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH

wow big big big storm did the 1995 wind storm have a 29.05 inches wow i can not wait for this big storm to come my way wow wow wow!!!!!!!
Dennis Floyd Bertha Fran Bonnie Ophelia Isabel ..... All hit NC. Did major damage along the coast. Isabels surge went over the sand dunes. Alot of other weaker storms. But we are due for a bigger storm. They were all cat1-weak cat3's.
haven't got time to follow this thing...is it developing????

will check back later for the answer.
Thanks,
Gams
It's rather unlikely that anything better than high 3/low 4 gets to NC. Even Hugo was only a 3, I think.
56. Inyo
yeah, KatrinaRita, us in southern California are expected to get hammered by this storm, especially the south facing mountains - where i work! Unfortunately, it is a trupical storm, so the snow levels will be high. However, it is still a very good thing... we are about 5 inches below our average rainfall to this date, and the 2 to 4 inches they are predicting will make up quite a bit of that defecit.

Of course, 4 inches of rain overnight doesnt do much to recharge the water table. At least it will get the creeks moving. Some areas like Opid's Camp behind Mt Wilson could get as much as 10 inches!
Hugo was a 4.I think.99% sure.
Colby, Hugo was a 135 MPH cat 4. If fact, historians think that a cat 4 might have hit Long Island in the 1800s.
Here is an article about the New England Hurricane of 1938.
This is the introduction from the article:
The New England Hurricane of 1938 (or Great New England Hurricane or Long Island Express) was the first major hurricane to strike New England since 1869. The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September of the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale before making landfall on Long Island on September 21. The hurricane killed 500-700 people and caused $6.0 billion (2004 US dollars) in damages.

As you can see, 69 years passed between the last two major hurricane landfalls in New England; it has been 68 years since the last.
tornadoty - is this the storm you mentioned hitting New England in the 1800s?

Great September Gale of 1815
This is from Dr Master's Wikipedia link above ~on the naming of Catarina~

A Brazilian newspaper indicated a "Furacao (hurricane) threatening Catarina (the Brazilian state)". Partly because of this, the storm had unofficially been named Catarina due to the headline.

sailor asked~ I'm curious if anyone has equated the sea surface temperature increase to an energy equivalent.

I'm not sure how in depth of equated your looking for...

Credit PBS/NOVA/ScienceNow & most of all Kerry Emanuel for createing it.


This is for the north atlantic. The PDI is Power Dissapation Index~ energy released by storms & what not.

If your looking for the SST's energy pent up potental, waiting for a storm to come along~ link

If you want the formula's see Emanuel's page & look around.
Inyo

Another weather web site that I go to sometimes (not as good as weatherunderground :) has been backing off on the rain totals all day. When I got up at around 6 today they where expecting 2.45 inches of rain. Then it went down to 2.1 know it is at 1.93.

I hope this is wrong however the tropical fetch of mosture didnt look as healthy as it did yesterday. Also with the storm slowing down over the cooler waters might have something to do with it.
for what it's worth - the farmer's almanac has a hurricane threat for New England in both september and october... the nursery that i run is now located 45 miles inland due to the hurricane of 1938. it was originally a field grown nursery in New London, CT and they were completely wiped out. just some history.
Sjyepony - I looked at your link and found this, which indicates that the Carribean can support a Category 4 if the conditions were right.
Yeah the energy has been there, it had cat 5 potential in spots last month. At least we get high seasonal shear.
This graph shows that storms in the West Pacific are growing more intense as well (combined data from the Atlantic and West Pacific):

Check out the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane. A direct hit on NYC with a 13 foot storm surge over lower Manhattan.
I just looked at the NRL site and they still have 90L up; the satellite shows a big blowup of convection to the northwest of the center.



Meanwhile, Carina has reached 75kts, 967mb.
That's not 90Q/90L (I don't think it really has a designation), or at least I doubt it.
Yeah Michael, either that one or the one in 1821.
Hey guys, here's a puzzle for ya - without looking at the date, identify this system:

Cindy?
No, Cindy was in the Gulf of Mexico
I think it might be Franklin (Arlene - Emily were in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean).
It is Franklin because if you right click on the immage and go to immage properties it says Franklin in the immge URL.

Sorry to kill the fun :(
Hey, that's cheating! I didn't click on properties; I just new that Dennis and Emily formed in early-mid July and that Franklin was (I think) the first storm in the Atlantic, excluding the area from Cape Verde to the Windwards.
I took a guess before I did that. I knew it was a storm that was A-G and I eliminated a few choices before hand.
LOL got to make it harder colby
Oh, Carina is forecast to continue to intensify, reaching 100 kts (115 mph) for the JTWC forecast. The consensus for Carina can be found here.
I have noticed that the intensity of tropical cyclones is often greatly underestimated in these diagrams; Carina is shown as reaching 990 mb, where it is actually already at 967 mb. Is there a reason for this?
Can you guess which storm this was (don't cheat):

81. Inyo
Lightning, i am no expect but to me the convection looks pretty active still. they added thunderstorms to the most recent update in the forecast and issued a flash flood warning for the burn areas. So i don't think NWS thinks it will weaken. it's been a dry year so of course there are no guarantees but the models have been relatively solid on this storm for a long time so i think its a good bet anyhow. The hanford office said the GFS was going overboard with precip forecast, but i didnt see what it said.

the ones i saw indicated the mountains could get over 6 inches.
Is it Irene?
HurricaneKing - Yes. Now here is a harder one (not from last year):

I remember that radar screen... I was in VA when she hit (and eventually can over us as well)... That's Fran.
That should read came over us.... sorry.... Long night.
Has anyone noticed that the water temps that normally cool off for the winter season (ocean temps) have not gone down or is it just me, seriously if people think last year was a bad storm year i get a nasty feeling this one will be worse..
In fact the water temperatures appear to be rising now.

Link
No cheating now:

Let's try this again:

Ugh, never mind.
I have a question??? When was the last cat 5 to hit the US (Gulf Coast or the East Coast)???
92. Inyo
THE PICTURE! ITS FRANCES! i recognize that eye anywhere!

haha
What about this?

No It didn't show up.
Could someone please tell me how to put a picture on a comment? Thankyou.
levi

ya go

img src=" the text goes here">
thankyou boldman.
Does anyone want to answer that question????
Taco, the last Cat 5 to landfall in the U.S. was Andrew.
Andrew is the last Cat 5 at landfall in the U.S., as opposed to 'canes that were Cat 5 at some point but down to lower intensity at landfall.
The reason why I was asking was that same year we had a big wind storm on the west coast and during Hurricane Season we had 19 named storms. Now Andrew hit in 92 but the waters were not that warm like they are now and do you think this will be the year of the Cat 5???

Just a Thought of what maybe coming this year...
102. Inyo
unless you are one of those people who believe Katrina was actually a f5 at landfall
I have a hard time believing Katrina wasn't at least a Cat 4 at landfall.
Thanks DenverMark
I think they will rename Katrina to a cat 4 but it will take about 8 more years before they do...
I doubt they'll ever revisit Katrina until everyone who was forecasting her has retired - there's a lot of heads that could roll there.

Carina is really stunning now, with sat estimates at T5.0/90kt!

taco wrote::

"I have a question??? When was the last cat 5 to hit the US (Gulf Coast or the East Coast)???"

don't know if this has been answered yet. it was andrew in 92. only three (since recordkeeeping began) storms have made landfall in the U.S. as cat 5 storms. the one before andrew was camille in 69. or was there one in between the two?
at least i think it's only three. anyone?
Hey Stan,
DenverMark did and you are right It was Andrew in 92 but the reason why I was asking was,that same year we had a big wind storm on the west coast and during Hurricane Season we had 19 named storms. Now Andrew hit in 92 but the waters were not that warm like they are now and do you think this will be the year of the Cat 5???
That would be 1995, as there were 19 storms that year.
Yes I meant to put 95 on my post, that same year on the west coast they had a Big Wind Storm, lots of damage... This year they are having the same type of storm on the West Coast and this year we are to have around 15-19 Named Storms... So I was asking do you think this will be the Year of the Cat 5???

Sorry for the mess up>>>

Taco
"Hey Stan,
DenverMark did and you are right It was Andrew in 92 but the reason why I was asking was,that same year we had a big wind storm on the west coast and during Hurricane Season we had 19 named storms. Now Andrew hit in 92 but the waters were not that warm like they are now and do you think this will be the year of the Cat 5???"

i saw the answer after i had posted. about the year of the cat 5? good question. i really don't know. i thought katrina was gonna be the one but, she weakened very quickly prior to landfall. and, i do believe had charley in 04 had another hour or two over water, considering it's rapid strengthening prior to landfall, it very well could have been a cat 5 at landfall. i would say no because they are rare around here. although i would probably say the same thing for 07 and beyond for the exact same reasoning.
The three hurricanes officially rated Cat 5 at landfall in the U.S. are Labor Day 1935 in the Florida Keys, Camille and Andrew.

Yes,Katrina is such a political mess that it may be many years before she is reevaluated. I feel the winds had to be at least Cat 4 on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Although the devastation was most due to the enormous storm surge.

I'm just a rank amateur, but my gut feeling is that '06 may be just as wild as '05 was. I sure don't wish a Cat 5 landfall on anyone, though.
DenverMark,

I would hope not either, Because I just don't think we could have another one here. I had enough damage from Katrina that I know my insurance would close up shop and leave town...

Well anyway I am off to bed I will be downtown for the next 3 days for Mardi Gras so I won't be posting much ...

Yall have a great night see you in 3 days...:0)

Taco
The low pressure in Katrina compared to Andrew can be (partially) explained by the fact that Katrina was gigantic (Katrina was possibly the largest hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic, with hurricane force winds 125 miles from the center). By comparison, Andrew was about the same size as Katrina when Katrina crossed Florida. Katrina was almost certainly stronger than 125 mph at landfall (the Weather Research Center even said that Katrina could have been a Category 5 at landfall; see page 4 in the outlook verification). Also, remember Wilma with 892 mb pressure and 155 mph winds.
For those concerned about an East Coast landfall, the WRC predicts a 90% chance of a hurricane strike to the Carolinas and Georgia this year.



Link to WRC
stormchaser77 at 6:24 AM GMT on February 26, 2006.
Taco2me61..... Something really interesting about Andrew
Taco was That The "Eye" actually passed right over The NHC
while it was a CAT5.
Actually stormchaser, the eye did NOT pass over the NHC.
I live like 5 mins. from the NHC. We never got the eye.
We got the northern eyewall, not the eye itself. The eye passed about 20 miles to the south of the NHC. One of my blogs shows where Andrew came in & the wind speeds also.
At my house we had 140 mph. winds BEFORE the measuring devices failed!! Tell you right now he was one mean mean storm. I heard a rumor after that at the Nuclear plant in Homestead they measured a gust at around 200 mph. Not sure how accurate this is though!! He was a definite cat 5 though.
i don't think katrina was a cat 3. i think it was a cat 4. however, as this has been said on here before, if it were a cat 3, i can understand why it still had the high storm surge. it weakened from a cat 5 to a cat 3 or 4 just a few hours before landfall. sure, the winds might have died down but, the ocean waters i doubt would have had the time to die down to a cat 3 or 4. same, or the exact opposite i guess you can say, as with charley. it strenghtened to a cat 4 right before landfall but, it didn't have the so-called cat 4 storm surge because the water didn't have time to get to that point. it seems logical.
this isnt the first time 2 years ago a hurricane hit brazilie although the brazilian govnerment denied it was a hurricane but there were made some pictures with a satelite and those pictures said it was a weak cat 1 hurricane
Unfortunately..This is nothing but my "gut" speeking, but I believe this year the East Coast might need to watch out this year for landfalling Huricanes. The Bermuda high will be sitting in the correct position to bring the more active ITCZ just right to the east coast. I rely on the upcomming patterns of the set Bermuda high, with the higher SST's than in prevoius years. I'm not sure who posted the fact that if Hugo was slower it wouldn't have caused as much wind damage. Not true, this was our only saving grace was the fact that it was a fast mover, and the fact that as soon as he went past Charleston, he was over the National Park reserve that is just timber,that is the reduction of the cost of this hurricane. Hugo was so similar to Andrew, that if Hugo hit through a very populated area for the extended track, would have caused a larger area of devistation to personal property. The cost would have been close to Andrew. What was missing was the Bermuda high last year. It steered everything either out to sea,brushing the coast, or right through the Carib./S.Florida, and into the Gulf. This year will be just as active but more concentrated on the east coast instead of the Gulf. Don't get me wrong...the gulf will get something I'm sure but not to the extent of last year. Just my 2 cents.
Dr Masters:


It is sounding like we heading for a 100% machine based NWS? Automated observations being analyzed by computers that generate fully computerized forecasts that are delived via the internet and read on various PC and wireless devices!
124. jeffB
It is sounding like we heading for a 100% machine based NWS? Automated observations being analyzed by computers that generate fully computerized forecasts that are delived via the internet and read on various PC and wireless devices!

And don't make politically incorrect statments about global climate change. :-)
All that will be left at NOAA will be the researchers and computer scientists.
128. Inyo
haha blow up the eyewall? with what? laser beams?
Stormchaser,
Kinda hard to explain here. The NHC is 5-10 miles north of me. They really did not get the super high winds, they were out of the solid eyewall. Where I live was about the cutoff point. We got ahhhhh maybe what you saying about vortex. I cant remember what they called it. That Fujimora guy did the surveys & said we had incredible downbursts where I live. I also live right around the corner from Country Walk. The development that was shown all the tome in the media.
Homestead Air force base is very near the power plant so I guess the rumor of 200 mph wind was accurate.
The major problem I saw with wind speeds is MOST of the measurind devices failed.As a matter of fact the NHC was in different location for Andrew, it was in a taller building & had the big rader ball on top of it. LOL,needless to say it was airborne!!!!!
Telling you guys again Andrew was one mean storm.
This Weather Modification bill sounds like nothing more then to make government smaller :( I hope it doesnt pass as well.
TC Carina continues to just explode in the Indian, with official winds of 90kt (roughly 97kt when adjusted to U.S. 1-minute averages) and a T5.5/101kt sat estimate:

"They Can also Seed The Storm to induce Weakening
which has been going on since the 1960's"
They don't seed them anymore because it is ineffective; I don't think that this happened from seeding.
Also, even nuclear weapons can't blow up a hurricane.
Looks as though we are in for a tough decade of tropical weather. It never seems to stop.Link
A hurricane puts out the energy of the world's combined nuclear arsenal every hour or so. Have fun trying to blow it up.
About the only thing that could blow up a hurricane would be an asteroid striking the Earth where the hurricane is (which would be a VERY bad thing for the world).
Granted this has nothing to do with seeding hurricanes, but cloud seeding none the less~ Texas Department of Liciensing & Regulation.

The Weather Modification program administers grants to political subdivisions who sponsor rain-enhancement activities. Currently, cloud-seeding projects are conducted in some 37 million acres of the state (or about one-fifth of the states land area). The State grants help pay for these seeding operations, reimbursing water conservation districts, county commissions, and other political subdivisions for up to half of the costs to conduct them. This grant program, initiated with the Texas Department of Agriculture in 2001, was transferred to the TDLR in August 2003.

There are other states doing similiar things Texas doesn't only do cloud seeding but other weather modification operations.

MichaelSTL~ I left you an answer concerning all this lastnight on my blog. Check it out.
Carina just keeps on stregnthening! 95kt, 949mb!

Carina has a clearly defined eye on microwave:

That's been there for a while, it's just now showing up on IR. Beautiful storm, and I don't see anything to stop it. Take a look at the shear map. I have a thread on my site for her, I'm posting imagery and intensity as I get them.


Stronger and stronger and stronger!


Eye now evident on IR.
Eye is becoming clearer on IR
144. Inyo
i don't buy any of the theories about the US stopping hurricanes. Come on, if we had that kind of power, the government would be gloating about it like mad. Besides, i don't even buy seeding weakening the storm.. if it increases condensation, the condensation will create heat, which if anything would STRENGTHEN the storm. Until we get the tunnels up and running, we can't do anything to them, unless we can make them stronger via CO2 emissions. I suppose we could start a nuclear war with someone, and after we all died, the nuclear winter would decrease the severity of hurricanes.
Yeah inyo~ I hadn't seen the govt stop any canes either & the gloating is a good point~ they could have claimed that great weaking on Katrina before landfall & everyone would be ralling around this bill & though FEMA would still have look like a failer the president would have come out smelling like a rose. The tunnels could raise approval points for sure.
Just got a 57.2 mph gust. A new record for my garden this year.

A follow up to the Sacramento, Ca ~levee situation:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency for fragile Sacramento River and Delta levees, freeing up at least $75 million and suspending state environmental and contracting laws to speed repair at two dozen eroded sites.
I just noticed that I had posted about Carina at the same time that ForecasterColby did (although the time for Colby's post is 3 minutes after mine, while mine is second).
I can't imagine why the government would try to weaken storms just prior to landfall based on the fact that most storms when they start to weaken tend to spread out. This means that while it may save some areas from major damage it would create greater damage in places where it would have otherwise been fairly mild. This would more than likely cause the total bill to be much higher than it would have been, and also stretch relief efforts over a larger area.
It must be remembered that places like the Gulf Coast are not the only places where disasters have occured that can be blamed on human activities; as an example, the Great Flood of 1993 was caused by excessive rainfall that caused levees to be overtopped and towns built on floodplains to be flooded. This wouldn't have occured or been so bad if no one had built homes in vulnerable areas or erected so many levees.
150. Inyo
great idea arnold, suspend environmental laws even though environmental damage is what caused the stupid problem in the first place! not too bright...
Visible eye beginning to show and 100 kts (115 mph) and 944 mb.

According to the best track, Carina is now at 105 kt (120 mph) and 938 mb.
Stormchaser- you are right. There are drying agents with very impressive properties which, if introduced at the right moment, in considerable quantity, would perhaps trigger the collapse of the eye wall and weaken a storm.
It would seem that if a country can spend thousands of millions every single day to carry war abroad, it might come up with new ideas for combatting these monster storms. What would a dozen transport planes delivering
drying agent over a storm cost? About 10% of the cost of a single Abrams tank.
Hi friends.

Just wanted to point out that the NAM computer modle has weakend the storm that is expected to move in durning the next few hours. This is what the other web site I go to (not 1/2 as good as wunderground) has been saying for the past few days.

I am not an expert or anything and I see that there is still a ton of subtropical moisture out there looks like even more then yesterday. However it looks from the satellite that some of that rain is coming up a little more north.

In my personal opinion I would not be suprised (even thow I want the most rain possable) if we saw rain fall totals of more on the average of 1-3 inches for coast and valley and 3-5 inches for the foothills.
157. Inyo
Stormchaser, i'm sure the government HAS done experiments on hurricanes.. i just doubt they were successful