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Soudelor Winds Down; Hilda Hits Category 4; Hong Kong Sets All-Time Heat Record

By: Bob Henson 12:07 AM GMT on August 09, 2015

Former Typhoon Soudelor, now a 50-mph tropical storm, is inland over eastern China after giving storm-savvy Taiwan one of its most powerful typhoon strikes on record. The damage in Taiwan appears to be widespread but not catastrophic, although at least 10 people are dead or missing, according to a Washington Post report. Power was knocked out to a reported 3.22 million residents, the largest storm-related outage in Taiwan history, and high winds toppled more than 2,000 trees in Taipei. Soudelor made landfall around 5:00 am Saturday local time as a Category 3 typhoon, with its strong right-hand flank passing over the island’s northern third, including the city of Taipei. As classified using the extended Beaufort scale, winds speeds at the Taipei airport topped out in the Level 13 range of 83-93 mph. These are the second-highest speeds on record for Taipei, behind only the Level 14 winds (93-103 mph) observed during 1996’s Typhoon Herb. While rainfall during Soudelor appears to have fallen short of at least two other typhoons (Herb and 2009’s Typhoon Morakot), the amounts were still impressive over wide areas, with a total of 52.52” reported at Datong Township in far northeast Taiwan.

Soudelor made a second landfall as a Category 1 typhoon just after 10:00 pm local time Saturday in China’s Fujian province near Putian City. See this weather.com report for more details on Soudelor.




Figure 1. Trees torn down by strong wind along a street in Jinjiang, on the east coast of China in the Fujian province, on August 8, 2015, as Typhoon Soudelor drew near. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.



Figure 2. Hurricane Hilda as seen at approximately 19 UTC (3 pm EDT) Saturday, August 8, 2015, from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Hilda was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. The Big Island of Hawaii is visible in the upper left of the image. Image credit: NASA.


Hilda vaults to Category 4 status
A burst of rapid intensification brought Hurricane Hilda from Category 1 to Category 4 status in just 24 hours, with sustained winds estimated at 140 mph by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 11:00 am Hawaii time on Saturday (5:00 pm EDT). Hilda showed little in the way of spiral banding late Saturday, taking on more of an annular configuration. Already one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years over the Central Pacific, Hilda could intensify further over the next 24 hours. If Hilda manages to reach Category 5 strength, it will join the elite group of hurricanes of that intensity in the Central Pacific. The year to beat is 1994, when three Category 5 systems plowed across the basin in just five weeks: Emilia, Gilma, and John. El Niño tends to enhance hurricane activity in the Central Pacific; interestingly, an El Niño was not underway during July-August 1994, though one did develop later in the year.

As Hilda gradually gains latitude on its west-northwest course, wind shear will take an increasing toll. Models continue to diverge on Hilda’s strength and track toward the end of the five-day forecast period, though most models recurve the hurricane well east of Hawaii. A weaker Hilda would be steered more by low-level easterly flow, perhaps nearing the islands as a tropical storm, while a stronger system would be influenced more by the upper-level westerlies and would be more likely to angle north.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Molave continues to spin harmlessly well southeast of Japan, and Invest 93 should remain weak as it traverses the open waters of the Northeast Pacific.



Figure 3. Hilda will be traveling over warm seas for the next several days, but increasing wind shear will keep the hurricane from taking full advantage of the oceanic heat. Image credit: NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center.


Broken records piling up in Europe, Asia
As 2015 continues marching toward a new global record high temperature, the heat is making itself felt this weekend at a variety of locations across the globe. Excessive heat warnings are out for several south-central U.S. states, but records aren’t tumbling at the pace that they are in several other countries.

On Saturday, the venerable Hong Kong Observatory reached 36.3°C (97.3°F), the hottest temperature in its 132-year history. The heat in Hong Kong was likely enhanced by sinking air around the southern periphery of Typhoon Soudelor. Likewise, subsidence on the north side of Soudelor helped keep Tokyo toasty, as the city notched its eight consecutive day of at least 95°F temperatures on Friday. The streak was twice the previous record length of four days, recorded on five different occasions between 1978 and 2013, as noted in a full report by The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen. Records in Tokyo began in 1875. The streak was broken on Saturday, as temperatures topped out at 91°F, and the heat should stay just short of the 95°F threshold over the coming week.

Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe continues to broil in a sustained heat wave. In Poland, the Wroclaw Observatory hit an all-time record high on Saturday of 38.9°C (102.0°F), and highs soared above 95°F over a broad swath from Lithuania to the Mediterranean. Some areas will see relief over the next several days, but others are facing at least a solid week of torrid readings (see Figure 4, below).

Bob Henson


Figure 4. On Saturday night, WU was predicting temperatures in Vienna, Austria, to hit the upper 90s Fahrenheit each day during the coming workweek. Vienna’s all-time high is 39.5°C (103.1°F), according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera.

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Mr. Henson.

The CPHC's color scheme for their sea surface temperature map is one of the ugliest I've ever seen.
   Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson....
What took you so long?
Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Mr. Henson.

The CPHC's color scheme for their sea surface temperature map is one of the ugliest I've ever seen.



???
Thanks for the update Mr Henson..................Good evening classsssssssssssssssss!
Thanks for the update Mr Hensonnice blog to
What a 5 day forecast for Vienna!
Really good update. These storms are spinning up fast this year. RI used to be an infrequent occurrence back in the day. And a lot more time this year for more.

Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Mr. Henson.

The CPHC's color scheme for their sea surface temperature map is one of the ugliest I've ever seen.
And one of the most nonsensical, with the cooler 26c water in red and the warmer 29c represented by some kind of nauseating pink. It looks like the kind of thing you'd get if you asked color blind me to design a map... :-)
Great day in Soooo Cal........after a high of 83 and sunny.....down to 78....awesome!


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 08 Aug 5:40 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 08 Aug 5:30 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 Aug 5:30 pm PDT 78 47 33 NW 8G14 OK
now we can say the storm has peaked

EP, 10, 2015080900, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1440W, 115, 950, HU
Quoting 9. wartsttocs:

What a 5 day forecast for Vienna!
I spent a month in Europe in July, 1997, mostly in Austria and Slovenia. As I recall, the first two weeks set the then highest temperature records in both countries. The average high in Ljubljana, Slovenia is 83 during the first two weeks of July, and it was between 95 and 100 for the entire period. The last two weeks set records for cold temperatures and rainfall. I think this is one of the reasons so many Slovenian immigrants settled in Cleveland. The weather there reminded them of home. :-)
I have some questions about the temperature reading in Hong Kong. Not disputing anything, just wondering how it's done. I'm not knowledgeable about weather, or too much else, I'm an ex-electronics tech, and just want to know how things work.

The temperature, I read, was 39.3 C, topping an old record of 39.1 C from 1900. I was interested in thermometers some time ago, and found that ones supposed to be accurate to 1 degree were quite expensive, so I wonder how they can read to one tenth of a degree, and how we know that a temperature measured a hundred years could be compared to one measured now.

I've had some electronic thermometers that read to a tenth of a degree, they are precise, but no way would I call them accurate. My old photo thermometer I would pretend to read to half a degree, but there accuracy was not too important, just consistency.
Quoting 12. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Great day in Soooo Cal........after a high of 83 and sunny.....down to 78....awesome!


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 08 Aug 5:40 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 08 Aug 5:30 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 Aug 5:30 pm PDT 78 47 33 NW 8G14 OK
Oh, just hush up, Joe. The current temperature here is 90. It'll get down to 78 around 2:00 this morning. I will admit that the weather there is one of the few things I really miss about California.
Quoting 320. Dakster:

Heavy t-storms in MIami today. (yes, I am back in Miami)...

Boy is it HOT here... I don't remember leaving the heat on when I left...
Is your AK year done already?
Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Mr. Henson.

The CPHC's color scheme for their sea surface temperature map is one of the ugliest I've ever seen.


Quoting 11. sar2401:

And one of the most nonsensical, with the cooler 26c water in red and the warmer 29c represented by some kind of nauseating pink. It looks like the kind of thing you'd get if you asked color blind me to design a map... :-)


I for one like the color scale. You two are always the downers.
Quoting 4. Tazmanian:




???


He's talking about Figure 3.
Quoting 16. sar2401:

Oh, just hush up, Joe. The current temperature here is 90. It'll get down to 78 around 2:00 this morning. I will admit that the weather there is one of the few things I really miss about California.


Positives and negatives everywhere....but the weather of Sooo Cal is tough to beat.
Something like "Nor'easter" reached Chile since yesterday. I'll call it as "Southeaster".

Dropped 4 METERS of snow on the Andes, near Mendoza, Argentina. Impressive flood, storm surge, strong winds and giant waves.

While between Central Argentina and Buenos Aires area, impressive thunderstorm outbreak, the day became night and they had a lot of hailstorms today.

In the South Brazil, specially Rio Grande do Sul state the heat wave is insane in the area. The capital, Porto Alegre, had the highest temperature ever recorded for August month, in the north of the city it reached 36,6C, this is insane for August. In Canoas (my city) the temperature reached 37,4C, is a record for this month and probably one of the highest temperature ever recorded during the Winter.

The city of Taquara, around 65 miles away from Porto Alegre (over Paranhana's Valley) the temperature reached 39,8C!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The temperature tomorrow expect to reach around 34C - 37C tomorrow again; The heat wave will end just around Thursday or Friday.

The temperature is almost 20C above average in some areas. This is the our El Nio pattern. :p

22. vis0
http://youtu.be/OtZbLaXXxz0(1300x812, 600x376 below)

Maybe Vienna will also set a new record for most consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 35 C / 95 F.
Quoting 13. Tazmanian:

now we can say the storm has peaked

EP, 10, 2015080900, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1440W, 115, 950, HU


Cloud tops are warming too on the IR, and the eye is becoming cloud covered, so I agree it's peaked. Its unraveling will be nearly as spectacular as its rapid intensification.
Quoting 15. chasSoCal:

I have some questions about the temperature reading in Hong Kong. Not disputing anything, just wondering how it's done. I'm not knowledgeable about weather, or too much else, I'm an ex-electronics tech, and just want to know how things work.

The temperature, I read, was 39.3 C, topping an old record of 39.1 C from 1900. I was interested in thermometers some time ago, and found that ones supposed to be accurate to 1 degree were quite expensive, so I wonder how they can read to one tenth of a degree, and how we know that a temperature measured a hundred years could be compared to one measured now.

I've had some electronic thermometers that read to a tenth of a degree, they are precise, but no way would I call them accurate. My old photo thermometer I would pretend to read to half a degree, but there accuracy was not too important, just consistency.
There's an interesting small study here that compares older precision mercury thermometers (Liquid in Glass, or LIG) to modern digital thermometers (so called Maximum Minimum Temperature Systems, or MMTS). This is just one study at one location, but it does do a 20 year comparison between co-located LIG and MMTS temperatures. The findings were that MMTS temperatures averaged a slight (negative 0.1F) but detectable difference of reporting cooler maximum temperatures than the old LIG thermometers. The differences were considerably greater when measured over snow, but that's an issue not in play at Hong Kong. Assuming that the average MMTS reports a slightly cooler maximum than a co-located LIG thermometer, and that this difference is widespread, that 0.2c difference is likely to be significant. Not as significant as a previous record of 98f being broken by a 100f temperature, but significant. There are other issues like siting and instrument moves over the years. I'm assuming the Hong Kong Observatory has controlled for these, but that's why these temperature records are preliminary, which maybe needs to be stressed a bit more in these articles. The WMO will investigate the site and report if this record stands or not.
Quoting 11. sar2401:

And one of the most nonsensical, with the cooler 26c water in red and the warmer 29c represented by some kind of nauseating pink. It looks like the kind of thing you'd get if you asked color blind me to design a map... :-)


Its called Pepto-Bismo pink
Quoting 18. Astrometeor:





I for one like the color scale. You two are always the downers.
That's only because you have no taste... :-)
Quoting 27. txjac:



Its called Pepto-Bismo pink
That's the phrase I was looking for. I always associate Pepto with nausea. :-0
Trouble for Houston a week from this Monday? Or just what is this thing the Euro is showing me?

Is the entire world burning up? Are there any abnormally low temps anywhere?
Quoting 30. pureet1948:

Trouble for Houston a week from this Monday? Or just what is this thing the Euro is showing me?





Thats a long ways away, dont be teasing me now with any rain
From NYT's Sunday Review:
The Great Victorian Weather Wars
THE history of today’s climate change debate may have begun on Feb. 7, 1861. That day, an Irish physicist named John Tyndall, a professor of natural philosophy, delivered the annual Bakerian Lecture to the Royal Society in London.
Quoting 32. txjac:




Thats a long ways away, dont be teasing me now with any rain


Euro says it's going to form over land, not water. Only a brief stay offshore. Does that make any difference in what this thing might become?
Quoting 21. pablosyn:

Something like "Nor'easter" reached Chile since yesterday. I'll call it as "Southeaster".

Dropped 4 METERS of snow on the Andes, near Mendoza, Argentina. Impressive flood, storm surge, strong winds and giant waves.

While between Central Argentina and Buenos Aires area, impressive thunderstorm outbreak, the day became night and they had a lot of hailstorms today.

In the South Brazil, specially Rio Grande do Sul state the heat wave is insane in the area. The capital, Porto Alegre, had the highest temperature ever recorded for August month, in the north of the city it reached 36,6�C, this is insane for August. In Canoas (my city) the temperature reached 37,4�C, is a record for this month and probably one of the highest temperature ever recorded during the Winter.

The city of Taquara, around 65 miles away from Porto Alegre (over Paranhana's Valley) the temperature reached 39,8�C!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The temperature tomorrow expect to reach around 34�C - 37�C tomorrow again; The heat wave will end just around Thursday or Friday.

The temperature is almost 20�C above average in some areas. This is the our El Ni�o pattern. :p
I'm not a big fan of the word "insane" when used for weather, but 20c over the average in the last full month of winter down there is sure approaching insane. Were the previous records set during the last "super" El Nino in 1997-98? Since we seem to be headed for another "super" this year, I'm wondering what kind of role El Nino is playing in these temperatures.
36. vis0
Quoting 21. pablosyn:

Something like "Nor'easter" reached Chile since yesterday. I'll call it as "Southeaster".

Dropped 4 METERS of snow on the Andes, near Mendoza, Argentina. Impressive flood, storm surge, strong winds and giant waves.

While between Central Argentina and Buenos Aires area, impressive thunderstorm outbreak, the day became night and they had a lot of hailstorms today.

In the South Brazil, specially Rio Grande do Sul state the heat wave is insane in the area. The capital, Porto Alegre, had the highest temperature ever recorded for August month, in the north of the city it reached 36,6%uFFFDC, this is insane for August. In Canoas (my city) the temperature reached 37,4%uFFFDC, is a record for this month and probably one of the highest temperature ever recorded during the Winter.

The city of Taquara, around 65 miles away from Porto Alegre (over Paranhana's Valley) the temperature reached 39,8%uFFFDC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The temperature tomorrow expect to reach around 34%uFFFDC - 37%uFFFDC tomorrow again; The heat wave will end just around Thursday or Friday.

The temperature is almost 20%uFFFDC above average in some areas. This is the our El Ni%uFFFDo pattern. :p




REPLACED the animation as the img host (as of late) is loosing the last 4 or 5 frames of animations uploaded

image host
Quoting 30. pureet1948:

Trouble for Houston a week from this Monday? Or just what is this thing the Euro is showing me?


It's showing the near surface temperatures and the 500 mb pressure anomaly, which generally correlates with surface temperatures. For Texas, it's showing near normal temperatures and nothing much happening in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. It would help if you used a map like this, which shows the near surface level temperatures, wind vectors and sea level pressures. This is more what you're looking for in terms of weather. No low anywhere near Texas so no problems there. That 500mb anomaly over inland California and Nevada is due to a thermal low which exists for almost all the summer and early fall.

Quoting 31. Kenfa03:

Is the entire world burning up? Are there any abnormally low temps anywhere?


Ye, the UK had a weather pattern that was more like October/November a week or so ago and also broke a bunch of low records for July on an exceptionally cold night. It's just there aren't as many low records being set in comparison to heat records and this year seems rather exceptional itself, with some really intense heatwaves going on in Europe/Asia/South America/North America, partially due to the ongoing El Nino event. Not to mention it's summer at the moment in the northern hemisphere, so cold spells aren't really all that cold. If the jet stream was in the same position it was in a week or so ago, when it delivered the cold spell to the UK, during December/January/February then there would have likely been very cold temperatures and lots of snow. :)
Quoting 35. sar2401:

I'm not a big fan of the word "insane" when used for weather, but 20c over the average in the last full month of winter down there is sure approaching insane. Were the previous records set during the last "super" El Nino in 1997-98? Since we seem to be headed for another "super" this year, I'm wondering what kind of role El Nino is playing in these temperatures.


Well, the temperature in Campo Bom now tied with 1997 and 2002 (El Niño years), 35,8ºC. Porto Alegre is the second hottest day ever in August today (34,8ºC), the previous record was in 1961. But this is the official by INMET. In the station of the prefecture, the temperature reached 36,6ºC today. In my city is the hottest day ever, the previous record was in August 24th 2014.
Quoting 34. pureet1948:



Euro says it's going to form over land, not water. Only a brief stay offshore. Does that make any difference in what this thing might become?
It doesn't show that at all. See post #37.
Quoting 25. CybrTeddy:



Cloud tops are warming too on the IR, and the eye is becoming cloud covered, so I agree it's peaked. Its unraveling will be nearly as spectacular as its rapid intensification.


and its a small storm so i think from here on out will see rapid weaking
It's 11:33 PM and we have 25C.
Inbound boomer, big un with a Gust front heading towards us on the South shore.

Quite the noise maker and the lightning is awesome.




Is broken. The INMET now confirmed that today we have the hottest day ever recorded in August.
35,2ºC in the weather station's botanical garden (which is used as a historical reference, to be away from the city center where it is warmer).

The previous record was in August 29th 1961. Below we have the top 5 hottest day on August:

1st: 35,2ºC on August 8th 2015.
2nd: 34,9ºC on August 29th 1961.
3rd: 34,6ºC on August 24th 2014.
4th: 33,6ºC on August 18th 1955.
5th: 33,3ºC on August 11th 1929.

I said again, in the meteorological station used by Prefecture of Porto Alegre, the temperatures were higher than 35,2ºC. Reaching 36,6ºC in the north of the city, that is the hottest place of Porto Alegre.

Yesterday, the city had the low of 22,6ºC, the 2nd hottest low in August. The 1st hottest low ever recorded in August, was yesterday when we had 22,7ºC. But i'll talk again, in the meteorological stations used by prefecture, the low was around 26ºC and 27ºC! This is low that we usual see in Strong Heat Waves in the Summer, like December 2012, December 2013, January 2014 and February 2014 (the heat dome).

Impressive heat wave, in 2 days 2 records was broken. The highest low and highest high. Also the 2nd highest low temperature for August.
Quoting 37. sar2401:

It's showing the near surface temperatures and the 500 mb pressure anomaly. For Texas, it's showing near normal temperatures and nothing much happening in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. It would help if you used a map like this, which shows the near surface level temperatures, wind vectors and sea level pressures. This is more what you're looking for in terms of weather. No low anywhere near Texas so no problems there. That 500mb anomaly over inland California and Nevada is due to a thermal low which exists for almost all the summer and early fall.




Both the ECMWF (see post 30) and the GFS show a saggy, weak, retrograding trough with a base over the gulf coast-eventually closing off a mid-level low over the central gulf coast. If that were to occur, it would drift west along the middle and upper Texas coast or just offshore. Certain DOOM. Initially, it would bring a greater potential for some rain over the central/eastern gulf coast than over Texas.

A week out...and the 18Z GFS has dropped this particular scenario for now.

After the cut-off.



I think Tallahassee has it right.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A stronger +PV anomaly will develop once again over the Great Lakes
region, punching south into the Ohio River Valley mid-week and
pushing our ridge of high pressure back off to the west. This will
increase chances for showers and thunderstorms again into the 30-50%
range during the daytime hours. By the weekend, a piece of this
anomaly will break off, with a cut-off low aloft of our area,
keeping chances high through the weekend, particularly along the
coast.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the
mid 70s.


Would be very interesting to see it convert to annular, the convection around the coc is waning, while the coc's convection seems stable.
Quoting 45. pablosyn:

Is broken. The INMET now confirmed that today we have the hottest day ever recorded in August.
35,2ºC in the weather station's botanical garden (which is used as a historical reference, to be away from the city center where it is warmer).

The previous record was in August 29th 1961. Below we have the top 5 hottest day on August:

1st: 35,2ºC on August 8th 2015.
2nd: 34,9ºC on August 29th 1961.
3rd: 34,6ºC on August 24th 2014.
4th: 33,6ºC on August 18th 1955.
5th: 33,3ºC on August 11th 1929.

I said again, in the meteorological station used by Prefecture of Porto Alegre, the temperatures were higher than 35,2ºC. Reaching 36,6ºC in the north of the city, that is the hottest place of Porto Alegre.

Yesterday, the city had the low of 22,6ºC, the 2nd hottest low in August. The 1st hottest low ever recorded in August, was yesterday when we had 22,7ºC. But i'll talk again, in the meteorological stations used by prefecture, the low was around 26ºC and 27ºC! This is low that we usual see in Strong Heat Waves in the Summer, like December 2012, December 2013, January 2014 and February 2014 (the heat dome).

Impressive heat wave, in 2 days 2 records was broken. The highest low and highest high. Also the 2nd highest low temperature for August.
Hmmm. 1961 was an ENSO neutral year while 1955 was a moderate El Nino year. I don't know how 1929 ranked, although I'm sure Weberweather does. I believe that 2014, although not an official El Nino year, was already starting to feel the effect of a developing El Nino. So, for your five warmest years, we have one in a strong El Nino, one in what might be considered a weak El Nino (2014), one in a moderate El Nino year, one in a neutral year, and one in an "I don't know year". It certainly seems like El Nino affects your hottest temperatures, but it's not the only thing that does. What will be interesting to see is how many days of record high temperatures you have this year compared to the last hot but not El Nino year. However that turns out, these hot temperatures are much more impressive than what we're seeing in the Northern Hemisphere since you're in meteorological winter, when we don't expect many high temperature records to be broken.
It is a Mothership,

Wowza, the staggered stack & roll cloud is coming in fast with a nwest to Seast Curve, Horizon to Horizon.



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
929 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT  
 
* AT 927 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60  
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE  
CATHERINE...MOVING SOUTH AT 50 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NEW ORLEANS...HARVEY...CHALMETTE...AVONDALE...EAST NEW ORLEANS...  
MARRERO...TIMBERLANE...BELLE CHASSE...METAIRIE...JEFFERSON...  
GRETNA...HARAHAN...WESTWEGO...JEAN LAFITTE...MERAUX...ESTELLE...  
WOODMERE...ARABI...POYDRAS AND BRIDGE CITY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2977 9019 2982 9017 2985 9022 3005 9027  
3002 9015 3003 9004 3005 9003 3004 9003  
3007 8995 3010 8982 3014 8976 3002 8973  
3004 8982 2998 8985 2993 8982 2995 8971  
2991 8974 2987 8969 2976 8966  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 016DEG 43KT 3017 8991  
 
 
 
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Quoting 49. Patrap:

It is a Mothership,

Wowza, the staggered stack & roll cloud is coming in fast with a nwest to Seast Curve, Horizon to Horizon.






Green with envy here ...
So looking forward to late Sept to Oct when it will cool down
I'm not made for this hot weather any more

And actually I cant complain about this early evening. Sunset was beautiful, temps dropped a bit and there was a nice S/E breeze
Quoting 17. BahaHurican:

Is your AK year done already?


Yeah. I answered in the other blog to. I didn't see the new one!
Quoting 46. beell:



Both the ECMWF (see post 30) and the GFS show a saggy, weak, retrograding trough with a base over the gulf coast-eventually closing off a mid-level low over the central gulf coast. If that were to occur, it would drift west along the middle and upper Texas coast or just offshore. Certain DOOM. Initially, it would bring a greater potential for some rain over the central/eastern gulf coast than over Texas.

A week out...and the 18Z GFS has dropped this particular scenario for now.

After the cut-off.



I think Tallahassee has it right.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A stronger +PV anomaly will develop once again over the Great Lakes
region, punching south into the Ohio River Valley mid-week and
pushing our ridge of high pressure back off to the west. This will
increase chances for showers and thunderstorms again into the 30-50%
range during the daytime hours. By the weekend, a piece of this
anomaly will break off, with a cut-off low aloft of our area,
keeping chances high through the weekend, particularly along the
coast.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the
mid 70s.
DOOM..hehe.

I'm hoping Tallahassee doesn't have it right. If that piece that breaks off parks itself along the coast, all the convection will cut me off from the Gulf flow. It will leave me with no rain and hot, humid weather. Now, if that low would end up about 75 miles north, that would be perfect.
Went to the CWG social.Seems nothing much has happened in the blogosphere.Glad the heat is somewhere else while we had a nice day without stifling heat and humidity.
WIshing for snow are we Washi?

I am... But I am not gonna get it in South Florida.. :(
Quoting 26. sar2401:

There's an interesting small study here that compares older precision mercury thermometers (Liquid in Glass, or LIG) to modern digital thermometers (so called Maximum Minimum Temperature Systems, or MMTS). This is just one study at one location, but it does do a 20 year comparison between co-located LIG and MMTS temperatures. The findings were that MMTS temperatures averaged a slight (negative 0.1F) but detectable difference of reporting cooler maximum temperatures than the old LIG thermometers. The differences were considerably greater when measured over snow, but that's an issue not in play at Hong Kong. Assuming that the average MMTS reports a slightly cooler maximum than a co-located LIG thermometer, and that this difference is widespread, that 0.2c difference is likely to be significant. Not as significant as a previous record of 98f being broken by a 100f temperature, but significant. There are other issues like siting and instrument moves over the years. I'm assuming the Hong Kong Observatory has controlled for these, but that's why these temperature records are preliminary, which maybe needs to be stressed a bit more in these articles. The WMO will investigate the site and report if this record stands or not.



Thank you, that is interesting. I noticed they referred to "real temperature" so I went to Wikipedia to find out what that might be and how it might be established. The triple point of water is a good reference, if the lab has some Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water. I'm guessing that a second calibration point could be established by the triple point of some other substance.

This brings to mind the old saying, if you have a clock you'll always know what time it is. If you have two clocks, you'll never know what time it is.
Quoting 31. Kenfa03:

Is the entire world burning up? Are there any abnormally low temps anywhere?


We are witnessing the warmest year on record. SST's are incredible. Feedback is the name of the game long term. With most of the heat being pushed into the oceans between the depths of 30-300 feet we can expect this to feedback with each year increasing temperature wise. More moisture feedback, which will lead to increasing rains and floods will continue to intensify. Real question then becomes, in fifty years time, will enough fresh water melt off in the Artic lead to the great conveyor shutdown?
Quoting 57. DeepSeaRising:



We are witnessing the warmest year on record. SST's are incredible. Feedback is the name of the game long term. With most of the heat being pushed into the oceans between the depths of 30-300 feet we can expect this to feedback with each year increasing temperature wise. More moisture feedback, which will lead to increasing rains and floods will continue to intensify. Real question then becomes, in fifty years time, will enough fresh water melt off in the Artic lead to the great conveyor shutdown?


That would suck...

And you could also mention that the more the ocean is ice and snow free the more heat it absorbs from the sun - again leading to the feedback loop.
Quoting 59. Dakster:



That would suck...

And you could also mention that the more the ocean is ice and snow free the more heat it absorbs from the sun - again leading to the feedback loop.


Indeed, a most excellent fact that will be anything but most excellent. Tick tock, tick tock. Time ran out quite some time ago to stop any of this. This is the hard truth. We can now rush to not make it worse, but rush on issues such as this is not in the political roundhouse. So we will wait, we will have to adapt. Tens upon tens of millions will be displaced by AGW and we'll pay the tens upon tens upon tens of trillions to adapt. If we don't get ourselves first. What an age to be alive. Glad I believe in prayer.
well where 8 days in too AUG and no name storm for any where in the Atlantic i think the Atlantic may be done and over with
i feel that there is a early fall comeing for a lot of the E coast and the W Coast s not far be hide i think are early fall will show up in mid SEP
The EPA didn't dump anything, some Mining Corporation who made the mess in the 1st place is entirely responsible for THEIR OWN waste.

The EPA does NOT create toxic waste, it just gets stuck paying the tab for Corporate Toxic Waste ......
Quoting 61. help4u:

epa dumps 1 million gallons of toxic wastewater into Animas river thought this would be the talk of the blog.They said they were very very sorry but no lawsuits or evil people just government.Should fine the government 10 million a day until it is cleaned up.What a messed up country we live in today.They do whatever they want.Dictators can do what they want.


Since 2000 more than two dozen oil spills into rivers, lakes, and the Gulf by oil companies. Missed your outrage for that. Quite the oversight. You miss the irony of your point. The EPA and regulations stop big business from destroying the environment and stops them from doing whatever they want. Or do we miss burning lakes and rivers from pollution? And all the good times from yesteryear when we had little to no regulations?
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:

well where 8 days in too AUG and no name storm for any where in the Atlantic i think the Atlantic may be done and over with
just wait Taz. I feel that activity will begin soon.
Quoting 66. HurricaneAndre:

just wait Taz. I feel that activity will begin soon.


NE Gulf may be where we get a real storm, high end TS or hurricane this year. Three CV's surely. Just giving you a hard time last time. You've been all over the place with your thinking. Years like this will do it to us that's for sure. We'd settle for a decent invest at this point or a hopeful pouch. A Grothar blob would be dreamy!
Quoting 67. DeepSeaRising:



NE Gulf may be where we get a real storm, high end TS or hurricane this year. Three CV's surely. Just giving you a hard time last time. You've been all over the place with your thinking. Years like this will do it to us that's for sure. We'd settle for a decent invest at this point or a hopeful pouch. A Grothar blob would be dreamy!
That's right bro. Just stick it out.
peep's starting to realize epac storms are boring.
Quoting 55. Dakster:

WIshing for snow are we Washi?

I am... But I am not gonna get it in South Florida.. :(


I haven't been on in awhile. Are you back, Dak? I see a lot of people posting, sar, about oppressive heat and humidity. I know the struggle. Our temps here probably pale in comparison, but living my entire life in SW FL is a reminder of the oppression brought upon by the such. I work in a kitchen. I'm a chef. The hottest I've ever been, or the most I've ever sweat is when we're stuck in this trough pattern. When it's 80+% humidity and still 85+F out there, it's oppressive. It's the humidity that gets me, not the temps. It's been rough the last few years. It hasn't been the "norm". I'm not going to delve into that realm, but..... Jenifer Francis certainly has an argument. The temp in our kitchen regularly reaches 115 F+. The amount of wv has been the issue of late. Where are our normal 4:00 PM storms? Our east - west pattern? It's been absent for 3 summers now. I don't notice anything to say it's to change. It's just hot! If you could see me wring out my shirt and change just to kiss my girlfriend....lol. It's been bad! I like the hot, normal days. 91F, 50-60% RH and a 40-50% chance of rain post 3pm.
Quoting 70. GatorWX:



I haven't been on in awhile. Are you back, Dak? I see a lot of people posting, sar, about oppressive heat and humidity. I know the struggle. Our temps here probably pale in comparison, but living my entire life in SW FL is a reminder of the oppression brought upon by the such. I work in a kitchen. I'm a chef. The hottest I've ever been, or the most I've ever sweat is when we're stuck in this trough pattern. When it's 80+% humidity and still 85+F out there, it's oppressive. It's the humidity that gets me, not the temps. It's been rough the last few years. It hasn't been the "norm". I'm not going to delve into that realm, but..... Jenifer Francis certainly has an argument. The temp in our kitchen regularly reaches 115 F+. The amount of wv has been the issue of late. Where are our normal 4:00 PM storms? Our east - west pattern? It's been absent for 3 summers now. I don't notice anything to say it's to change. It's just hot! If you could see me wring out my shirt and change just to kiss my girlfriend....lol. It's been bad! I like the hot, normal days. 91F, 50-60% RH and a 40-50% chance of rain post 3pm.
Hey GatorWx. Been missing you. You stay safe in this heat and that kitchen. It was terrible here with those hot temps.
Quoting 61. help4u:

epa dumps 1 million gallons of toxic wastewater into Animas river thought this would be the talk of the blog.They said they were very very sorry but no lawsuits or evil people just government.Should fine the government 10 million a day until it is cleaned up.What a messed up country we live in today.They do whatever they want.Dictators can do what they want.


I want to say what I want to say, but you just have no clue, do you? I try to use restraint most of the time, but your posts are just simply over the top, always. Do you follow science at all? Science, although obscure, somewhat, to the religious folks out there, is not blasphemy. It's fact, so long as it's proven. The thing you've got going for you is the AGW debate/topic hasn't yet been proven. You and anyone can believe as you choose, but the writing is on the wall. It's right there. Turn your head perhaps. I don't understand the ignorance regarding the issue. Perhaps it's easier for me than others, but geez. All the information, #facts, are right there. How can it be so easy to ignore? Do you wish to find out too late? It's only a matter of time. I have stock in Exxon, btw. I am not a fan, but it does help pay bills. This is purely help4u.
Quoting 71. HurricaneAndre:

Hey GatorWx. Been missing you. You stay safe in this heat and that kitchen. It was terrible here with those hot temps.


I've always been around. Just hasn't been much to chat about. Just trying to live. My girl consumes a lot of my time. ;) I'm not complaining.
Quoting 56. chasSoCal:



Thank you, that is interesting. I noticed they referred to "real temperature" so I went to Wikipedia to find out what that might be and how it might be established. The triple point of water is a good reference, if the lab has some Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water. I'm guessing that a second calibration point could be established by the triple point of some other substance.

This brings to mind the old saying, if you have a clock you'll always know what time it is. If you have two clocks, you'll never know what time it is.
You're welcome, but you lost me on the reference to the VSMOW as having something to do with weather thermometers. Triple point calibration is generally only used on the most critical types of thermometers, such as clinical and lab units, where knowing precise temperatures down to the hundredth or thousandth of degree are needed.

Weather thermometers don't need that degree of precision, or the steep costs involved, so they are usually calibrated using phase transition, which, in this case, is the melting point of ice made from distilled water and the boiling point of distilled water. After correcting for altitude, these two transition points are generally good enough for thermometers measuring to a tenth of a degree. Even more general now is using a reference thermometer that has been rigorously calibrated. Newly manufactured thermometers are then tested against the reference, with thermometers not meeting standard being rejected.

The latest thing with digital thermometers is software input testing. The testing software knows the exact voltage changes needed to produce a certain temperature in a specific model of thermometer. Once a certain level of voltage is applied to the probe point, the thermometer should produce a certain reading. If it doesn't, it's rejected. This calibration testing is fast and inexpensive, and it's what's used for most consumer level digital thermometers today. It's good enough for /- 1c accuracy, although many better quality digital thermometers today will produce accurate readings in the tenth of a degree range. The thermometers you buy at Walmart probably aren't that accurate, but many of sensors in better quality weather stations are.

This question about the accuracy of thermometers made 150 or more years ago comes up fairly frequently. The best answer I've seen is how accurate were rulers 150 years ago? There aren't many people that would argue a measurement with a 150 year old ruler in good condition would produce inaccurate results. The manufacturing processes involved in producing rulers and LIG thermometers were both well understood 150 years ago. There are some who would argue, with some justification, that older LIG thermometers that have retained their vacuum seal are more accurate than any LIG thermometer today. Up until about 1880, they were a luxury item for the average person. They were handmade, expensive, and extensively calibrated before being put up for sale. Most were bought by the 19th century equivalent of a weather geek or the Weather Bureau. Many users compared temperatures among themselves and with Weather Bureau thermometers. Thermometers that were obviously out of calibration were promptly shipped back, and too many would ruin a company's reputation. There are even a few surviving companies from that era, like Brannan in the UK, that are still producing everything from inexpensive consumer grade LIG thermometers all the way up to some amazingly expensive scientific and industrial units.
just crazy how bad the fires become. the sun was red yesterday.

the latest on the rocky fire consisted of numbers. At the time yesterdays meeting, the blaze was at 45 percent containment. More than 300 engines, 40 water tenders, 17 helicopters, 4 air tankers, 94 hand crews and 36 bulldozers were sent to the fire. For the first time in two decades, the National Guard was activated and 171 troops were fighting the flames but thanks to weather that has cooperated and a massive force that are on the lines, both on the land and in the air, we are seeing progress.

3551 fire personnel
Quoting 74. sar2401:

You're welcome, but you lost me on the reference to the VSMOW as having something to do with weather thermometers. Triple point calibration is generally only used on the most critical types of thermometers, such as clinical and lab units, where knowing precise temperatures down to the hundredth or thousandth of degree are needed.

Weather thermometers don't need that degree of precision, or the steep costs involved, so they are usually calibrated using phase transition, which, in this case, is the melting point of ice made from distilled water and the boiling point of distilled water. After correcting for altitude, these two transition points are generally good enough for thermometers measuring to a tenth of a degree. Even more general now is using a reference thermometer that has been rigorously calibrated. Newly manufactured thermometers are then tested against the reference, with thermometers not meeting standard being rejected.

The latest thing with digital thermometers is software input testing. The testing software knows the exact voltage changes needed to produce a certain temperature in a specific model of thermometer. Once a certain level of voltage is applied to the probe point, the thermometer should produce a certain reading. If it doesn't, it's rejected. This calibration testing is fast and inexpensive, and it's what's used for most consumer level digital thermometers today. It's good enough for /- 1c accuracy, although many better quality digital thermometers today will produce accurate readings in the tenth of a degree range. The thermometers you buy at Walmart probably aren't that accurate, but many of sensors in better quality weather stations are.

This question about the accuracy of thermometers made 150 or more years ago comes up fairly frequently. The best answer I've seen is how accurate were rulers 150 years ago? There aren't many people that would argue a measurement with a 150 year old ruler in good condition would produce inaccurate results. The manufacturing processes involved in producing rulers and LIG thermometers were both well understood 150 years ago. There are some who would argue, with some justification, that older LIG thermometers that have retained their vacuum seal are more accurate than any LIG thermometer today. Up until about 1880, they were a luxury item for the average person. They were handmade, expensive, and extensively calibrated before being put up for sale. Most were brought by the 19th century equivalent of a weather geek or the Weather Bureau. Many users compared temperatures among themselves and with Weather Bureau thermometers. Thermometers that were obviously out of calibration were promptly shipped back, and too many would ruin a company's reputation. There are even a few surviving companies from that era, like Brannan in the UK, that are still producing everything from inexpensive consumer grade LIG thermometers all the way up to some amazingly expensive scientific and industrial units.


The triple point bit came from me chasing down 'real temperature'. I got carried away, pursued it to extremes, I do that a lot.

I looked at thermometers from Cole-Parmer, their prices have dropped a lot in the years since I last looked, Their Wd-03316-80:Barometer W Digital Thermometer is specified at +/- 1.8 F.

A couple more serious weather stations from Davis, their vantage vue and vantage pro specifications say display resolution of 0.1F, but the sensor accuracy is rated +/- 1 F above 20 F, and +/- 2F below 20F. No doubt the real weather services can get better thermometers, but those look like what a serious amateur might have.

Again, just a personal hang-up. Something with indicated resolution ten times better than the basic accuracy. And just trying to understand, trying to learn something.
NVM
Quoting 57. DeepSeaRising:



We are witnessing the warmest year on record. SST's are incredible. Feedback is the name of the game long term. With most of the heat being pushed into the oceans between the depths of 30-300 feet we can expect this to feedback with each year increasing temperature wise. More moisture feedback, which will lead to increasing rains and floods will continue to intensify. Real question then becomes, in fifty years time, will enough fresh water melt off in the Artic lead to the great conveyor shutdown?

Sunday morning, thanks to Bob for the update on mainly the Pacific areas.

On the heat front and where its going? A lot of it is going into water and that water is going all over the place transported by the currents.
Simple idea. you have some cool bath water and you want to warm it up a bit before getting into the bath. You turn on the hot water tap and very hot water pours in. After a bit of time, you turn off the tap.
The hot water stays at the tap end of the bath not mixing very well, so you stir it up with your hand so as the temps become even.

This is what's happening in the oceans now. All this extra heat is being spread about by tropical storms in the air and currents in the seas.

Soon the effects will become undeniable.
Here's a chart of the Antarctic ice for this year, the thin blue line is 2015.



Here's the site:-

Link

Click on the charts for larger images.

One problem with the heat transfer thing, is that it does not work too well, if at all in some areas, basically the system is flawed in the transfer in some parts of the world a bit like the bath idea.
In the Caspian Sea, the Black sea and the Persian Gulf for examples. They don't have outlets like the GOM does so they just get hotter as they are doing now! Then things living in them die.
Some will, soon like the Dead Sea, dry up very quickly due to lack of input and the whole climate as we know it is starting to age and go through a metamorphosis.

I could write on for hours but you can always make up your own scenario's.
flagler.r/r..storm...stalled.out.west.florida
Good Sunday morning everyone - and thanks for the very good update, Bob Henson!
Concerning Vienna: it has been in the grip of this awful heat already for many weeks. Folks from there, posting in German weather blogs, very often deliver strong rants in respect to unbearable conditions in the city withouth air condition available ...

In central Germany we've enjoyed a nice cooler night with temps below/at 20C/68F. No precipitation in most places though. Maybe we'll see a bit more the next days at the border of the colder airmasses to the northwest and the hot airmasses in the southeast. But overall, the heatwave isn't done at all. Model maps for the week(s) to come don't predict a change of the stubborn weather pattern accross Europe. Culprit is (hope I get this right) the unusual cold water in the northern North Atlantic around Greenland and Iceland with a persistent low on top, creating troughs that will keep on shoveling hot tropical air from the Sahara into the Mediterranean and central Europe in some way or the other ...


Here a map of the northern hemisphere for tomorrow.

Industry fears for Swiss wine’s market share
The Local, published: 07 Aug 2015 11:56 GMT+02:00
Winegrowers in Switzerland are concerned that a low volume grape harvest for the third successive year could mean Swiss wine loses out to foreign competitors on supermarket shelves.
The dry, hot summer means wine fans can look forward to a high-quality vintage this year, however the quantity of wine produced could be below average, industry figures told the Tribune de Genève. ...


Conditions for winegrowers in Germany a adjacent countries to the east (Austria) are even worse. In German media you read more and more of serious problems in the vineyards due to the ongoing heat and drought. At some places they even start to remove immature grapes from the vines in order to relieve the vines itself and secure their survival ...

45 years later, Swiss identify bodies of missing Japanese mountaineers
Deutsche Welle English, August 6, 2015
Melting glaciers retreating due to global warming have uncovered human bones on Matterhorn Mountain last September. Swiss police ordered DNA testing to see if they were among 30 missing climbers who have vanished since last century.
DNA results came back in June as two young Japanese climbers who had vanished in the Swiss Alps following an August snowstorm near Zermatt Peak in 1970. ...


Here some more news from the Middle East about the ongoing heatwave:

Mideast temperatures to exceed half the boiling point next week
By Staff Writer | Al Arabiya News
Saturday, 8 August 2015
If you think the worst of the heatwave has passed, think twice. People in the Middle East will swelter through an incredible heat wave this coming Thursday.
Some meteorological national centers in the region are warning their citizens to be ready for temperature’s that have rarely been recorded before.
The center of Meteorology and Seismology in Iraq, predicts that temperatures will exceed half the boiling point of water - 50 degrees - as early as next Thursday.
Other Arab centers issued statements predicting that temperatures will exceed 45 degrees in various countries in the region such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE during the days of Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week. ...


'80,000 cubic metres of water from dams lost to evaporation during hot spell'
AMMAN — Jordan Valley Authority (JVA) officials on Saturday said they are considering importing a hollow ball cover system to place in major dams and reduce water evaporation.
"This past heatwave caused an additional 10 per cent of water evaporation or 80,000 cubic metres of water loss," said JVA Secretary General Saad Abu Hammour.
The JVA official noted that the loss of water from the 10 major dams in the Kingdom took place during the past 14 days.
"Water evaporation in general happens as long as there is sun, and the estimated loss of water during sunny and windy days reaches around 800,000 cubic metres," Abu Hammour explained.
The JVA official told The Jordan Times that there was an idea in 2010 to import "plastic balls with special specifications to place in the major dams to minimise water evaporation".
Hollow ball cover systems are made up of thousands of plastic balls that float on liquid surfaces, limiting evaporation, controlling odours and preventing algae growth, among other benefits, according to web sources.
"This project is costly although it prevents around 80 per cent of water evaporation. We are rethinking this option and hopefully will look for funding to secure it within two years," Abu Hammour said.
He added that "the climate is changing and we must have a long-term solution to protect water in Jordan, especially with the shortage that we face almost annually, and the plastic ball cover is a solution that several countries use to protect wide water reserve areas." ...


Enough to read for now I guess. Sorry for the long post ;-)
Super El-Nino just weeks away as Nino 3.4 values are now greater than 1.8C. Also the August update for the Euro is out and the model is holding steady to previous forecast which means this El-Nino is likely to surpass the 1997/1998 event. That's my 1 post for the day on here. Good luck and watch your profiles folks.


the Super El-Nino will be here soon!!
Quoting 63. Tazmanian:

i feel that there is a early fall comeing for a lot of the E coast and the W Coast s not far be hide i think are early fall will show up in mid SEP
are you ready for the Super El-Nino
Quoting 82. hurricanes2018:

the Super El-Nino will be here soon!!


It's just about here Jason.
Quoting 21. pablosyn:

Something like "Nor'easter" reached Chile since yesterday. I'll call it as "Southeaster" ...

Just want to say thanks to you, Pablo, for your much improved weather reports from South America lately. It increased our knowledge of the weather events over there nearly 100 percent, at least mine :-)

------------------------------
And sorry for some spelling errors in my post #80 above. WU won't let me edit, so you have to live with it :-(
anyone check out the 6z GFS? i know it's long range but it shows a developing CV storm apporaching the islands and getting completely eviscerated. loses its upper anticyclonic high and runs into a TUTT. That's on AUGUST 25th! that is usually right at the peak. shows how extremely hostile conditions are this year. especially shear.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
READ THIS!!!!HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

HILDA/S SATELLITE REPRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED FROM A PEAK THIS
MORNING...BUT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL NOTED IN LATEST INFRARED
IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES VALID AT SYNOPTIC TIME YIELDED 6.0/115 KT...
WHILE THE LATEST ADT VALUE IS 5.5/102 KT. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED AND SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
SET AT 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 295/10 KT...WITH HILDA NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE DISTANT
NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HILDA MOVES TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
AS HILDA SLOWLY ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND GAINS LATITUDE...IT WILL BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS...BUT HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TOWARD THE LEFT ON DAYS 4 AND 5...INFLUENCED BY THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. WORTH NOTING THAT TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...
LIKELY DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE FORECAST CIRCULATION AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG SHEAR.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS. INSTEAD LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...
AS HILDA TRANSITIONS FROM AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR TO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
PROVIDED BY A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IVCN
CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.5N 145.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 15.1N 146.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 16.0N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 17.9N 150.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 19.3N 151.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 20.0N 152.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Typhoon weakens over China after leaving 22 dead, missing
Louise Watt, The Associated Press, Published Sunday, August 9, 2015 7:17AM EDT
BEIJING -- A typhoon that lashed Taiwan dumped heavy rain and winds on the Chinese mainland on Sunday, leaving a total of 22 people dead or missing, collapsing homes and trees and cutting power to more than a million homes. ...

Here some more video impressions from Soudelor raging in Taiwan and China:



Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:

Super El-Nino just weeks away as Nino 3.4 values are now greater than 1.8C. Also the August update for the Euro is out and the model is holding steady to previous forecast which means this El-Nino is likely to surpass the 1997/1998 event. That's my 1 post for the day on here. Good luck and watch your profiles folks.





Why watch the profiles?
Quoting 56. chasSoCal:


Thank you, that is interesting. I noticed they referred to "real temperature" so I went to Wikipedia to find out what that might be and how it might be established. The triple point of water is a good reference, if the lab has some Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water. I'm guessing that a second calibration point could be established by the triple point of some other substance.
This brings to mind the old saying, if you have a clock you'll always know what time it is. If you have two clocks, you'll never know what time it is.

Lol, exactly what happened to me! Until this summer I just had a solid analog (LiG) thermometer on my balcony. When the current heat wave started some weeks ago I bought a cheap digital one because I didn't want to head outside many times a day (or even at night) to catch record high and low readings. As the transmission of the data from this cheap thermometer to the main station inside failed to work from time to time, I bought another one, more expensive (and with more data available like dew point). All three thermometers are at the same place, and they never record the same temperature (varies around 1 degree Celsius, with the LIG on top of the league; inside the house the cheap digital thermometer agrees with other thermometers, but the new one doesn't). Now I'm clueless on which one I should rely if I don't want to buy a fourth one (will mean: a real expensive semi-professional weather station), huh.
Quoting 90. Tropicsweatherpr:



Why watch the profiles?


Are you kidding? You mean to say you've never heard of El Nino's effects on Internet profiles?
The 06z GFS develops yet another major typhoon in the West Pacific in just a few days. It eventually makes it sub-900mb... Which is certainly possible.


august 17 2015 maybe a tropical storm
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:

well where 8 days in too AUG and no name storm for any where in the Atlantic i think the Atlantic may be done and over with
HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 pm HST Sat Aug 08 2015

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 145W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 145W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

15N 150W 34 2 25(27) 14(41) 4(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47)
15N 150W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 150W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

20N 150W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 18(50) 1(51) 1(52)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

20N 151W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 19(47) 3(50) X(50)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15)
20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

BUOY 51004 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 15(28) 8(36) 1(37) X(37)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

20N 154W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18)

15N 155W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11)

BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)

18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)

21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

$$
Quoting 79. islander101010:

flagler.r/r..storm...stalled.out.west.florida


spacebar not working again?
You must be giving it a good workout!
The AWS located in the elegant suburb of Happy Valley in Hong Kong recorded 37.9C, yesterday, therefore beating the Hong Kong territorial highest temperature which was 37.7C set at two different locations in 2004 and in 2013.
Today the international airport also set a new all time high with 37.7C.
Tell it to the Marine's...

Oooh rah,

Semper Fi'

31ST MEU TO ASSIST SAIPAN DURING TYPHOON RECOVERY

By Courtesy Story, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit




SAIPAN, Northern Mariana Islands -- Marines and sailors with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in Saipan today to assist with typhoon recovery efforts after the island was hit by a typhoon.

Approximately 600 Marines and sailors of the 31st MEU, aboard the USS Ashland (LSD 48) of the Bonhomme Richard Amphibious Ready Group, will work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to deliver much needed relief supplies after the island was devastated by Typhoon Soudelor Aug. 2-3.

The MEU has also staged four MV-22B Ospreys in nearby Guam. The aircraft will be on standby to provide aerial support for recovery efforts if needed.

The 31st MEU was in the vicinity of the Mariana Islands for training as part of a regularly scheduled deployment to the Asia-Pacific region. The Marines and sailors were rerouted with orders to assist recovery operations Aug. 5.

We will work closely with FEMA to bring relief to the people of Saipan as quickly as possible, said Col. Romin Dasmalchi, the 31st MEU commanding officer. As a maritime contingency force, the MEU's ability to quickly respond to a variety of crises across the range of military operations is key, particularly here in the Western Pacific where natural disasters like this are a fairly regular occurrence.

The 31st MEU provides a forward-deployed, flexible sea-based force capable of conducting amphibious operations, crisis response and limited contingency operations in the Asia-Pacific area. The 31st MEU is the only continually forward-deployed MEU and remains the Marine Corps force-in-readiness in the Asia-Pacific region.

Media queries concerning the 31st MEU's participation in typhoon recovery operations may be directed to Capt. Jennifer Giles, 31st MEU Public Affairs Officer at jennifer.giles@bhr.usmc.mil.
Quoting 61. help4u:

epa dumps 1 million gallons of toxic wastewater into Animas river thought this would be the talk of the blog.They said they were very very sorry but no lawsuits or evil people just government.Should fine the government 10 million a day until it is cleaned up.What a messed up country we live in today.They do whatever they want.Dictators can do what they want.


Some here have responded to you critically for bringing that up. I have to agree with one of the OCs, the mine did create (and mostly contain) the waste the EPA released. An accidental release, as environmental spills nowadays are. Apparently the U.S. government was not upfront about the spill. In a way, "it's the same old tune, fiddle and guitar..."

"The New Mexico Governor's office criticized how the EPA released information about the spill. In fact, her office learned about the spill from the Southern Ute Tribe, according to the governor's spokesperson Chris Sanchez. 'The Governor is disturbed by the lack of information provided by the EPA to our environmental agencies in New Mexico and strongly believes that people in our communities downstream deserve to have all the information about this situation,' Sanchez said in a statement." per TV station KBO4 in Albuquerque

Found a couple articles, but it is surprising there is not more media coverage of this event. Perhaps that is because (same link) "Environmental authorities are scrambling to assess damage from the leak, caused when a plug blew at the Gold King Mine near Silverton. Earlier today, officials say that drinking water is not affected and that the spill is not harmful to humans. The primary pollutants are iron and zinc."

"The Environmental Protection Agency said it triggered the release while using heavy machinery to investigate pollutants at the Gold King Mine north of Silverton."

Found this on the search for info about the Silverton, CO spill...
An interesting NPR story about oil companies dumping water in Wyoming.
i love you Tazmanian he is the best!!
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:

well where 8 days in too AUG and no name storm for any where in the Atlantic i think the Atlantic may be done and over with
maybe a tropical storm by gfs by ausust 17 to august 20!!
Quoting 63. Tazmanian:

i feel that there is a early fall comeing for a lot of the E coast and the W Coast s not far be hide i think are early fall will show up in mid SEP


107. JRRP
2014

2015
Delta Flight from Boston makes emergency landing in Denver after Hail damage.






nice weather in new york city this morning!!
Quoting 107. JRRP:

2014

2015

Sal is a lot less than last year.
GALVESTON RECORDED ITS 37TH DAY IN A ROW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

THIS IS NOW THE LONGEST STREAK IN CITY HISTORY AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN GALVESTON DATE BACK TO 1874. NO
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN GALVESTON SINCE JULY 8TH. HOUSTON HAS RECORDED
28 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 95 DEGREES WITH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1891.

THIS TIES FOR 8TH PLACE ALL TIME IN CITY RECORDS. HOUSTON HOBBY HAS RECORDED 22
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 95 AND THIS IS 5TH PLACE
ALL TIME WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1931
Quoting 76. chasSoCal:



The triple point bit came from me chasing down 'real temperature'. I got carried away, pursued it to extremes, I do that a lot.

I looked at thermometers from Cole-Parmer, their prices have dropped a lot in the years since I last looked, Their Wd-03316-80:Barometer W Digital Thermometer is specified at +/- 1.8 F.

A couple more serious weather stations from Davis, their vantage vue and vantage pro specifications say display resolution of 0.1F, but the sensor accuracy is rated +/- 1 F above 20 F, and +/- 2F below 20F. No doubt the real weather services can get better thermometers, but those look like what a serious amateur might have.

Again, just a personal hang-up. Something with indicated resolution ten times better than the basic accuracy. And just trying to understand, trying to learn something.
I think you're getting hung up between certified accuracy and nominal accuracy. Almost no consumer grade thermometer will be certified at better than one degree accuracy. It's an expensive process, and just one instrument out of spec means the company has to start the certification process over again. That doesn't mean a thermometer won't measure near 0.1 degree accuracy, and most good quality digitals will measure accurately at their resolution - the company is just not going to give you a NIST certification for your $300.
Quoting 99. sutho:



spacebar not working again?
You must be giving it a good workout!
Amazing how often that happens, and has been happening for years now. Keyboard companies should hire him to do destructive testing. :-)
Quoting 105. hurricanes2018:

maybe a tropical storm by gfs by ausust 17 to august 20!!



your got too be jokeing right AUGS 17th and 20s are way to far out and GFS can not be tursted that far out
Miles ahead.
Quoting 91. barbamz:


Lol, exactly what happened to me! Until this summer I just had a solid analog (LiG) thermometer on my balcony. When the current heat wave started some weeks ago I bought a cheap digital one because I didn't want to head outside many times a day (or even at night) to catch record high and low readings. As the transmission of the data from this cheap thermometer to the main station inside failed to work from time to time, I bought another one, more expensive (and with more data available like dew point). All three thermometers are at the same place, and they never record the same temperature (varies around 1 degree Celsius, with the LIG on top of the league; inside the house the cheap digital thermometer agrees with other thermometers, but the new one doesn't). Now I'm clueless on which one I should rely if I don't want to buy a fourth one (will mean: a real expensive semi-professional weather station), huh.
Being kind of gear nut, I think the most thermometers I've ever had at one time was about 10. OK, maybe about 15. No OCD involved though. I ended up like you, never knowing what the temperature was. In one of my saner moments, I decided I only needed two thermometers, one LIG and one digital. My LIG is a Taylor max/min model that's really an MIG (Mercury In Glass), so if I ever break it in the house, I'll have to call the hazmat team and have them burn down the house. So far, I've hauled it all over the country for 50 years and it's still in perfect shape. It's probably the only thing I haven't broken. My digital thermometer is in my Davis Vantage Vue weather station that I picked up from Amazon on an open box special for a "mere" $235. My Taylor is in an almost perfect exposure out on the back 40. The Vantage Vue is on the roof at nearly the perfect height of 10 meters but the exposure isn't the best on hot still days. The internal fan just can't move enough air over the temperature sensor under those conditions so it reads about 2 degrees high. With the Taylor as my reference thermometer (LOL), I've noted these conditions and hand adjust the database when I have them. The good thing is the Davis is consistently wrong, so it's not a big deal. I gave away or trashed all of my other thermometers when I downsized from my house to my motorhome. It was painful, but there's only so much stuff you can haul around in a motorhome. And yes, I did mount a weather station on top of the motorhome when I was parked for more than a day or so, but there's nothing OCD about that. :-)
Quoting 118. Gearsts:





thats way out there wish means its not going too happen how many times have we seen the GFS forcast some in for weeks out there then this drop it on the next run
Quoting 69. ProgressivePulse:

peep's starting to realize epac storms are boring.
This made me smile ... lol ...

To be fair they are sometimes interesting. Often so, in fact. Just think about their ATL counterparts, the "fish storm". No matter how beautiful and interesting their progress, some people never "get into" them.

Of more concern for someone who hoped to track a few more storms before the end of next week, it seems the Pacific is taking a breather.... or a breath. I haven't looked at global forecasts, yet, but it's looking like we may be down to a couple of withering tropical storms and maybe one organizing system over the next 240 hrs .... practically nothing by this season's standards ...
Quoting 90. Tropicsweatherpr:



Why watch the profiles?
Because if you put a lot of information in profiles all over the web, people will find them and figure out who you are. The appropriate thing to do when that happens is to get mad at the people who found your profiles that you posted.
123. txjac
Quoting 111. Patrap:

GALVESTON RECORDED ITS 37TH DAY IN A ROW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

THIS IS NOW THE LONGEST STREAK IN CITY HISTORY AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN GALVESTON DATE BACK TO 1874. NO
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN GALVESTON SINCE JULY 8TH. HOUSTON HAS RECORDED
28 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 95 DEGREES WITH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1891.

THIS TIES FOR 8TH PLACE ALL TIME IN CITY RECORDS. HOUSTON HOBBY HAS RECORDED 22
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 95 AND THIS IS 5TH PLACE
ALL TIME WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1931


And I believe that more records will be broken, no end in sight of cooler temps or rain.
Have my fingers crossed that this coming Saturday blesses us with some rain.
Heck, with the heat I'm happy when we get cloud cover.
When we have temps like this the AC struggles to keep it cool

Quoting 108. Patrap:

Delta Flight from Boston makes emergency landing in Denver after Hail damage.





Good morning Pat.. Must have been a horrible experience for pilots and passengers...Noise terrible...Judging by the damage, they were lucky to even have landed safely.
Good Sunday morning to all, btw .... slept in this morning for a change .... and plan to enjoy that for a week before I go back to my regular schedule ... [insert very big grin emoticon]

It's another absolutely gorgeous day here... typically hot with very clear skies ... It was already 90 here at 11 a.m. despite the forecast calling for it to be cooler today than yesterday ... only thing missing is the breeze, which is practically non-existent. I was planning to do some stuff outside today, but I may give that a miss until the sun is almost gone ... lol ...
Quoting 108. Patrap:

Delta Flight from Boston makes emergency landing in Denver after Hail damage.





What the ???? hit the nose????

Yikes! Glad I wasn't on that plane ....
Quoting 110. HurricaneAndre:

Sal is a lot less than last year.
This is what I been telling people. Last year I'd go to bed with a clean car. The next morning, it'd be covered in a thin layer of dust ... although there had been NO wind during the night to cause dust to blow ... This year that hasn't been happening. We've definitely had less dust here in the Bahamas, anyway ...
Quoting 86. wunderweatherman123:

anyone check out the 6z GFS? i know it's long range but it shows a developing CV storm apporaching the islands and getting completely eviscerated. loses its upper anticyclonic high and runs into a TUTT. That's on AUGUST 25th! that is usually right at the peak. shows how extremely hostile conditions are this year. especially shear.
Just as these models are unlikely to be right at 384 hours with any storm, it's even less likely they'll be right with a storm at any given point in time and how it will interact with the atmosphere. I don't even look at these long range models now. The conditions are going to be what they are going to be and the models really don't give us much insight into them.
129. txjac
City of Houston activates Public Health Heat Emergency Guideline

Link

Free Metro to one of the 49 cooling centers. Happy to hear as there are many, many homeless and elderly here
Quoting 126. BahaHurican:

What the ???? hit the nose????

Yikes! Glad I wasn't on that plane ....
It didn't exactly hit the nose. It hit the whole aircraft. There's a fiberglass cover over the radar in the nose. It will survive most bird strikes fine but it won't survive constant battering by hail. It will knock the cover off its attachment points. Somewhere in that flight's path is a battered radar nose cone. That picture is just one illustration of why I hate flying into DIA in the summer.
Quoting 128. sar2401:

Just as these models are unlikely to be right at 384 hours with any storm, it's even less likely they'll be right with a storm at any given point in time and how it will interact with the atmosphere. I don't even look at these long range models now. The conditions are going to be what they are going to be and the models really don't give us much insight into them.
Learned from Levi years ago to do what wxman123 is [or should be ]doing with those model runs - extrapolate general conditions from suggested model outcomes. What's less important is that a particular storm bombs or dissipates ... the GFS is implying that conditions will continue to be hostile even during what is normally the ramp up to the "heart" of the ATL season activity-wise. It also supports my thinking that we're most likely to see our named storms come on the peripheries of the basin - that is, near the African coast, with at best a limited trip up the central ATL, or more likely along the US coast later in the season, or possibly a GOM storm or two [though imo less likely].
132. SuzK
Quoting 55. Dakster:

WIshing for snow are we Washi?

I am... But I am not gonna get it in South Florida.. :(


Careful what you wish for Dakster, the weirdness is just beginning to ramp up!
Quoting 130. sar2401:

It didn't exactly hit the nose. It hit the whole aircraft. There's a fiberglass cover over the radar in the nose. It will survive most bird strikes fine but it won't survive constant battering by hail. It will knock the cover off its attachment points. Somewhere in that flight's path is a battered radar nose cone. That picture is just one illustration of why I hate flying into DIA in the summer.
Thanks, SAR ... couldn't figure out how vertically descending hail could cause that kind of damage .... I'm figuring that must have been some pretty good sized and concentrated hail to damage the windscreens that way ...
Aha!!! And the wind's backed around to the SSW, too .... :o)

Quoting 133. BahaHurican:

Thanks, SAR ... couldn't figure out how vertically descending hail could cause that kind of damage .... I'm figuring that must have been some pretty good sized and concentrated hail to damage the windscreens that way ...

Possible the speed of the airplane contributed to the physics of this hail damage.
"Big Hail" is to be respected.
;)
Quoting 133. BahaHurican:

Thanks, SAR ... couldn't figure out how vertically descending hail could cause that kind of damage .... I'm figuring that must have been some pretty good sized and concentrated hail to damage the windscreens that way ...
I just read up about it on one of my pilot web sites. This happened Friday night. The flight somehow flew into a cell that contained a tremendous amount of hail. They were apparently vectored around a cell with looked even worse and ended up in this one. Vertically integrated liquid on radar still doesn't accurately show all intense hail. Flight 1889 was at 33,000 at the NE/CO border enroute to Salt Lake when this happened. The whole things was over in about three minutes, but that's all it took. The flight diverted to Denver with the pilots using the GPS and flight control system to land, since they had no visibility from the windscreens. It looks scary, and I'm sure it was to the passengers and crew, but what could have been really scary is if that hail was just a little smaller and got ingested into the turbines. You can land a battered aircraft as long as the turbines keep running.
Wow. Stu Ostro's got a great wu blog up about the hail vs. airplane incident. Apparently the flight was headed to Salt Lake City when it ran into trouble from the storm closing in.
Quoting 134. BahaHurican:

Aha!!! And the wind's backed around to the SSW, too .... :o)


Certain DOOM is headed your way.... :-0

You can sure tell when there's nothing remotely resembling an invest in the Atlantic and no insane storms anywhere in Florida.
Quoting 118. Gearsts:


wow three storms i love it if it happern
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST SUN AUG 09 2015

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
CENTER OF HILDA WARMED AND SHRANK...COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY
INCREASED IN AREA AND NOW NEARLY ENCIRCLE THE CENTER...WITH A
RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE READILY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO/SAB/PGTW
YIELDS DATA-T NUMBERS NEAR 5.0/90 KT AND CURRENT INTENSITY /CI/
VALUES NEAR 5.5/102 KT...WHILE ADT YIELDS VALUES NEAR 5.5. BASED ON
THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN SET AT
100 KT. A WELL-PLACED 0717Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED WHAT WAS FAIRLY
OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE...THAT HILDA IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND THIS
DATA LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII. U.S.
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO BEGIN FLYING MISSIONS
INTO HILDA THIS EVENING...AND WILL PROVIDE INCREASED INSIGHT INTO
HILDA/S STRUCTURE.

HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION VECTOR OF 290/11 KT. THE HURRICANE
IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT HILDA WILL REACH THE WESTERN
TERMINUS OF THE RIDGE...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL ENSUE.
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS
STEERING CURRENTS BECOME QUITE WEAK...WITH FORWARD MOTION REDUCED TO
A CRAWL ON DAYS 3 AND 4 AS HILDA APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. A MUCH WEAKER HILDA IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
WESTWARD THROUGH DAY 3...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TVCN CONSENSUS...AND
SHIFTED MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...
INFLUENCED BY 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE.

AS HILDA SLOWLY ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND GAINS LATITUDE...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED AS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT
TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PLACE HILDA IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR WEAKENING...
GRADUAL AT FIRST...AND MORE PRONOUNCED TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 40 KT. IN THE MEANTIME...
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH STEADY WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IVCN
CONSENSUS...BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
THOUGHT TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE...WHICH IT
DOES BY DAY 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.7N 146.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.4N 148.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 16.4N 149.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 17.3N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 18.0N 150.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 19.0N 151.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 19.5N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 20.0N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH


big? here

Ha ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha! Yea, right. Don't bet on it!
Quoting 129. txjac:

City of Houston activates Public Health Heat Emergency Guideline

Link

Free Metro to one of the 49 cooling centers. Happy to hear as there are many, many homeless and elderly here
We don't have many homeless but lots of elderly, some of them living in substandard, non-air conditioned dwellings. As far as I know, there's nothing done for them other than hanging out at Walmart. Even Walmart here closes at midnight. The only 24 hour place we have is Waffle House, and it's kind of hard to hang out there. We have a pretty dangerous situation happening here, with actual temperatures getting over 100 for at least the next two days, with heat index values over 110. It's 96 now with a dewpoint of 77. The overnight lows are not likely to get much below 80, and that's when people really start to suffer. Supposedly, we'll get a cold front on Wednesday that will drop the high to "only" 93 with a low of 70. 93 only sounds cooler when we've been having these kinds of temperatures for so long.
Quoting 108. Patrap:

Delta Flight from Boston makes emergency landing in Denver after Hail damage.





Man, with that kind of fuselage damage I'm surprised the engines survived -- by rights they should either have choked or shed a bunch of intake turbine blades. Must have been at least golf ball size hail.
146. vis0
image host...still keep on eye on it 'cause...
Quoting 111. Patrap:

GALVESTON RECORDED ITS 37TH DAY IN A ROW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THIS IS NOW THE LONGEST STREAK IN CITY HISTORY AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN GALVESTON DATE BACK TO 1874.
Brutal.

If a TC were to knock out power on the island, imagine trying to sleep in that sauna without air conditioning.
Vis0,
Are you referring to that little curl in the gom? We had quite the light show from a south moving cell here on the Mississippi coast. My guess is that is the leftovers
Quoting 138. sar2401:

Certain DOOM is headed your way.... :-0

You can sure tell when there's nothing remotely resembling an invest in the Atlantic and no insane storms anywhere in Florida.
Hey! Who needs insanity when one can have cooling rain and breezes?

LOL ... I looked outside and there are a couple of clouds out there now .... you know it's bad when you are hoping a cloud will pass over you just to provide some shade .... lol ....
Quoting 143. HurriHistory:


Ha ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha! Yea, right. Don't bet on it!
Who's betting? We're just wishing and hoping and dreaming and ....
This is the most action we've seen this season, even on the models .... lol ....
Quoting 110. HurricaneAndre:

Sal is a lot less than last year.


Thank you Captain Obvious. :p
If I understand these charts correctly then they are showing departures from average over the given time period.

My question is whether the departure from average becomes mis stated due to warming? In other words are we using the same baseline. I would think that 1997 by itself plus the recent warming years have pushed the average upwards and therefore the anomalies are not as significant this year as in 1997 but may be having a more profound effect that is not noticeable due to lack of a coherent conversion to baseline.

Quoting 117. Gearsts:

Miles ahead.

153. ch2os
Quoting 118. Gearsts:




Granted it's quite a ways out still but there's always a possibility. Never say never.
154. MahFL
Quoting 111. Patrap:

GALVESTON RECORDED ITS 37TH DAY IN A ROW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

THIS IS NOW THE LONGEST STREAK IN CITY HISTORY AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN GALVESTON DATE BACK TO 1874.


I was in Galveston for 5 days during that record.
Regarding comment 152.

I think they use a moving baseline so anomalies are not skewed by long term trends.
Mini-blob watch GOM

UNBELIEVABLE thunderstorm OUTBREAK over Argentina, with the mix of the strong jet stream, heat wave in South Brazil and Blizzard over Chile/Argentina!

Pat, you're slipping. You're usually the first to post these.

Quoting 145. CaneFreeCR:

Man, with that kind of fuselage damage I'm surprised the engines survived -- by rights they should either have choked or shed a bunch of intake turbine blades. Must have been at least golf ball size hail.
That seems to have been the case. As I wrote, a little bit smaller hail could have led to a lot bigger problem.
Quoting 152. HurricaneDevo:

If I understand these charts correctly then they are showing departures from average over the given time period.

My question is whether the departure from average becomes mis stated due to warming? In other words are we using the same baseline. I would think that 1997 by itself plus the recent warming years have pushed the average upwards and therefore the anomalies are not as significant this year as in 1997 but may be having a more profound effect that is not noticeable due to lack of a coherent conversion to baseline.




The webpage for those images had a link to the methodology, which indicates they are still using the unique 7 years of data for their climatology.

"The monthly mean SST climatologies were then derived by averaging these satellite SSTs during the time period of 1985-1993. Observations from the years 1991 and 1992 were omitted due to the aerosol contamination from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo."

So comparisons between years should be valid.

Note that standard climatologies are normally 30 years.
With how quiet things seem to be in the tropics right now. One just has to wonder if we are going to get that one big storm before the season ends. cue the {Jaws music}. One thing to note is the persistent East Coast trough depicted on the GFS model through at least the next 7 days. If that sticks around I have my doubts about anything coming in from the east. Definitely would have to look closer to home for something to spin up in the Western Caribbean i.e. Mitch, Wilma, and 1921 Tarpon Springs, and some of those Florida-Cuba hurricanes in the 40s. Even a late season Ida or Perfect Storm/Grace is not out of the question, especially we these troughs being so amplified.





Quoting 149. BahaHurican:

Hey! Who needs insanity when one can have cooling rain and breezes?

LOL ... I looked outside and there are a couple of clouds out there now .... you know it's bad when you are hoping a cloud will pass over you just to provide some shade .... lol ....
Yes, I just got back in from watering. I would have paid good money for a couple of clouds. This combination of high temperatures and high humidity is brutal. The plants don't much like it either. :-)
Quoting 146. vis0:

image host...still keep on eye on it 'cause...
Vis, you just crack me up sometimes. Are sure ex-94L isn't that next blob to the right?
Quoting 118. Gearsts:


Ghost:Con Level 1
Quoting 158. Grothar:

Pat, you're slipping. You're usually the first to post these.




I'm on vacation. Yes, I will have another, thanx.


Your socks don't match today Grothar, the shuffleboard Ladies lodged a grievance seems.

: P




Very nice picture quality from these weather cams. Now I need some weather to show you...
Quoting 145. CaneFreeCR:

Man, with that kind of fuselage damage I'm surprised the engines survived -- by rights they should either have choked or shed a bunch of intake turbine blades. Must have been at least golf ball size hail.


The thing I find strange about the whole thing is that jets like this one have onboard weather radar, and receive messages from the ground (and other pilots in the area). The pilots should have been alerted to the danger well before they hit it and took action to avoid the area.

Quoting 147. AdamReith:

Brutal.

If a TC were to knock out power on the island, imagine trying to sleep in that sauna without air conditioning.


Unfortunately and not by design, We did dat for 15 days post Katrina. Save for at night after a week and a half we had a jenny and a window A/C. unit

Or as I called it, Sleeping Cool Nirvana.

Quoting 167. Xyrus2000:



The thing I find strange about the whole thing is that jets like this one have onboard weather radar, and receive messages from the ground (and other pilots in the area). The pilots should have been alerted to the danger well before they hit it and took action to avoid the area.




Taca Flight 110

A 737 once had a engine out failure from a T-storm and had to land on a old Grassy runway near the NASA Plant in New Orleans east, in the mid 80's I believe. They repaired er, and a solo crew fly it out the area,which is right next to a Levee as well. Was a cool crew in both instances.
Quoting 167. Xyrus2000:



The thing I find strange about the whole thing is that jets like this one have onboard weather radar, and receive messages from the ground (and other pilots in the area). The pilots should have been alerted to the danger well before they hit it and took action to avoid the area.




they did receive weather reports and were attempting to pass between storms when the line closed around them .. evidently they were not able to go around because of size of storm mass or over ..

the hail to cause damage like that was probably bigger then softball if not huge chunks much like the HH's have occurred in tropical flights !!
I trust the 737 airframe and power plants as they are the Global workhorse carrier by Boeing.

I fly SouthWest a lot .
NFL Player and Broadcast Legend Frank Gifford has passed at 84.
Quoting 157. pablosyn:

UNBELIEVABLE thunderstorm OUTBREAK over Argentina, with the mix of the strong jet stream, heat wave in South Brazil and Blizzard over Chile/Argentina!




It was 100F in Northern Argentina 2 days ago at 4500 feet (Salta).
weak.spin..leftover94...72w22w
Zzzzz....

Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Zzzzz....




Atlantic season starts with the new school year, when Recon passes into the center of storms occurs during classes with strict "smartphone off" policies.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Yes, I just got back in from watering. I would have paid good money for a couple of clouds. This combination of high temperatures and high humidity is brutal. The plants don't much like it either. :-)

I hear you. Have the sprinkler going right now as everything is starting to wilt. My new tree fern, which started into explosive growth during the wet period, looks like it may croak on me. 94F here right now.
Quoting 167. Xyrus2000:



The thing I find strange about the whole thing is that jets like this one have onboard weather radar, and receive messages from the ground (and other pilots in the area). The pilots should have been alerted to the danger well before they hit it and took action to avoid the area.


They knew the MCS was there. The line had tops of 55,000 feet so there was no way to get above it, and the cells were still developing. Weather radar, on the ground and in the air, is still not good at distinguishing between large hail and gigantic hail. At a certain point, it all looks the same. The pilots were trying to pick their way between the cells and had to pick the least dangerous looking one to penetrate. Once they were committed, there was no turning back. One of the pilots stated the other cells in the area looked like they had as much hail as this one but the hail looked smaller. A large volume of smaller hail is much more dangerous than the same volume of huge hail. The smaller hail can get more readily ingested into the turbines, causing blade damage and engine failure. Did they make the right choice? I don't know, but they got the dented aircraft on the ground safely with no serious injuries. In some circumstances, that defines a good landing.
Is anyone else having problems with the ascat site.
Quoting 176. nrtiwlnvragn:



Atlantic season starts with the new school year, when Recon passes into the center of storms occurs during classes with strict "smartphone off" policies.
LOL. I never thought of that, but it does explain why it gets so slow in here sometimes when there is something happening in the Atlantic.
Quoting 177. HurrMichaelOrl:


I hear you. Have the sprinkler going right now as everything is starting to wilt. My new tree fern, which started into explosive growth during the wet period, looks like it may croak on me. 94F here right now.
I've got a couple of hibiscus that I have to water at least twice a day or they wilt on me. I also have a nice Japanese maple the did the same thing with the explosive growth in the spring and is now suffering for it. The dogwoods have started dropping leaves again, the first sign of serious water shortage. All we can hope for is that the alleged front on Wednesday actually does bring some rain.
Quoting 166. CaribBoy:





Very nice picture quality from these weather cams. Now I need some weather to show you...
Looks like the SAL has decreased, so that's one good thing. OTOH, I can really see the dry conditions judging by the condition of the foliage in the hills above the airport.
Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Zzzzz....




Looking to me like 94L is coming back to life:)
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Yes, I just got back in from watering. I would have paid good money for a couple of clouds. This combination of high temperatures and high humidity is brutal. The plants don't much like it either. :-)


Don't want to be a scunner (Scots word), but you may have to get used to it. The recent development of very long lasting weather regimes is being driven by polar jet Rossby waves becoming stuck in situ for much longer than in the past, and is very likely being caused by reduced temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses.

Examples are the exceptional California drought, record cold and snow depth during recent New England winters, the record rainfall and storminess in the 2013/14 UK winter, and current 'heat domes' in Europe, the middle east, Iran, Hong Kong and Japan. The unusually southern and persistent jet is preventing heat from dissipating northwards across the globe. During El Nino years, the polar jet tends to move southwards, so that'll be contributing, too.
Quoting 183. Bucsboltsfan:



Looking to me like 94L is coming back to life:)



LOL 94L is dead not out there it went pooof
.
Quoting 181. sar2401:

I've got a couple of hibiscus that I have to water at least twice a day or they wilt on me. I also have a nice Japanese maple the did the same thing with the explosive growth in the spring and is now suffering for it. The dogwoods have started dropping leaves again, the first sign of serious water shortage. All we can hope for is that the alleged front on Wednesday actually does bring some rain.


I hope something brings us relief. I can deal with the heat as long as it is accompanied by diurnal thunderstorms. I am hoping for a TS Fay part 2 at some point over the next few months to make up for the dry periods. Although I feel that the Atlantic Basin is in some sort of (very) inactive period (the 1995-2010ish active period is over), surely we have to get some sort of storm before the season is over.

I also have a Japanese Maple that I keep in the refrigerator for 4 months from Nov-Mar, and it has survived and done well as a bonsai this way for 8 years. The leaves tend to look a little rough by the time it goes in the fridge in November, but I like being able to grow temperate species this way, despite our lack of winter chill here. I bet you it could survive where you are year round (with plenty of summer irrigation). We are right at the southern limit for dogwoods and the ones here tend to look a bit scrawny.
maybe ex invest 94L mayBE coming back soon
Quoting 185. yonzabam:



Don't want to be a scunner (Scots word), but you may have to get used to it. The recent development of very long lasting weather regimes is being driven by polar jet Rossby waves becoming stuck in situ for much longer than in the past, and is very likely being caused by reduced temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses.

Examples are the exceptional California drought, record cold and snow depth during recent New England winters, the record rainfall and storminess in the 2013/14 UK winter, and current 'heat domes' in Europe, the middle east, Iran, Hong Kong and Japan. The unusually southern and persistent jet is preventing heat from dissipating northwards across the globe. During El Nino years, the polar jet tends to move southwards, so that'll be contributing, too.
I don't know. I'm sure the stuck polar jet stream contributes to my lack of rain but I don't think that also explains the exceptional rains in Florida occurring at the same time. Summer in south Alabama is always long and always hot, so that's nothing new. The big difference is the increased temperatures. The average high here in early to mid-August is 92. The actual high today looks like it will top out at about 99. That's only a seven degree difference but, combined with the high humidity, it's a big difference in the sensible weather. At the same time, we've had much less rain than normal, which exacerbates the effects of the heat, since summer thunderstorms bring cloud cover. Even if a storm doesn't hit, the cloud cover brings relief from the heat. This summer has been characterized by an almost complete lack of cloud cover, with thunderstorms not popping up until late afternoon if they pop up at all.

There's also the hurricane issue. Alabama hasn't been affected by a tropical cyclone since 2005. We really depend on being at least being sideswiped by tropical systems as a source of summer rain. For the last 10 years, we've had only diurnal thunderstorms for rain, and they often fail, leaving us in persistent drought. The Rossby wave theory alone can't explain this heat, our very cold winters of late, record snow and ice storms, and the exceptionally low number of tornadoes and hurricanes we've had. It explains part of it, but I don't think it's the grand unifying theory that can explain every weather change we've had.
Quoting 187. Tazmanian:




LOL 94L is dead not out there it went pooof


I had a smiley face at the end of my comment - sarcasm...
Quoting 189. HurrMichaelOrl:



I hope something brings us relief. I can deal with the heat as long as it is accompanied by diurnal thunderstorms. I am hoping for a TS Fay part 2 at some point over the next few months to make up for the dry periods. Although I feel that the Atlantic Basin is in some sort of (very) inactive period (the 1995-2010ish active period is over), surely we have to get some sort of storm before the season is over.

I also have a Japanese Maple that I keep in the refrigerator for 4 months from Nov-Mar, and it has survived and done well as a bonsai this way for 8 years. The leaves tend to look a little rough by the time it goes in the fridge in November, but I like being able to grow temperate species this way, despite our lack of winter chill here. I bet you it could survive where you are year round (with plenty of summer irrigation). We are right at the southern limit for dogwoods and the ones here tend to look a bit scrawny.
Don't think I've ever seen a dogwood in Florida... though to be fair I haven't spent much time in the Tallahassee area.
195. vis0
ePACimage host
Quoting 173. maxcrc:



It was 100F in Northern Argentina 2 days ago at 4500 feet (Salta).


It was almost 104ºF in South Brazil yesterday.
Quoting 189. HurrMichaelOrl:



I hope something brings us relief. I can deal with the heat as long as it is accompanied by diurnal thunderstorms. I am hoping for a TS Fay part 2 at some point over the next few months to make up for the dry periods. Although I feel that the Atlantic Basin is in some sort of (very) inactive period (the 1995-2010ish active period is over), surely we have to get some sort of storm before the season is over.

I also have a Japanese Maple that I keep in the refrigerator for 4 months from Nov-Mar, and it has survived and done well as a bonsai this way for 8 years. The leaves tend to look a little rough by the time it goes in the fridge in November, but I like being able to grow temperate species this way, despite our lack of winter chill here. I bet you it could survive where you are year round (with plenty of summer irrigation). We are right at the southern limit for dogwoods and the ones here tend to look a bit scrawny.
I'm really wondering if we haven't seen the last of this active period as well. I've lived through three changes from active to inactive, and this feels familiar. If we really have switched an inactive period, it may last a while. The last one lasted from about 1971 until 1994, so a 20 plus year period of low hurricane numbers isn't out of the question. I have no idea if we've really flopped over but it wouldn't surprise me if that turns out to be the case.

How do you grow a Japanese maple in a refrigerator? Does it get any light while it's in the fridge? I know the winter period is relatively low light but there is some sunlight. I'm sure you have a system, I've just never heard of it. Japanese maples survive well here, although the last couple of winters, with lows in the single digits and teens have been a real test. The Japanese maple in trouble was just recently transplanted to a larger pot, and that may be part of the problem. Hibiscus here, except in rare winters, either have to be moved to the greenhouse or treated as annuals. Dogwoods, on the other hand, are one of the most beautiful trees we have. They are natives, but also cultivated as lawn and and street trees. The creamy white of their blossoms is like no other, and the fact they also grow wild in the woods really perks up spring around here.
Quoting 193. Bucsboltsfan:



I had a smiley face at the end of my comment - sarcasm...
Did you see the LOL at the beginning of his?
Quoting 192. tropicalnewbee:


Sar make sure u get your old butt to one of those cooling centers then!
LOL. As long as the market doesn't collapse, I'll still have enough money to pay for electricity, so my home is my cooling center. Those without A/C are really in a bad way though, since there's no concept of a "cooling center" here. Dothan, about 50 miles south of me, is opening their recreation centers for cooling but only from 9 to 5, which kind of defeats the purpose, when temperatures don't drop below 80 until two or three in the morning. I'm just thankful I can marginally afford to pay the power bill and that the A/C units are still running, bless their little freon hearts. :-)
Quoting 198. BahaHurican:

Did you see the LOL at the beginning of his?
I don't think that meant the same thing, but I could be wrong.
Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Zzzzz....


I dont trust the blob in the gulf...:)





Quoting 201. hydrus:

I dont trust the blob in the gulf...:)






It's really getting rough when, on August 9, the best we can do is watch some convective debris in the Gulf and see if some spin develops. :-)
Another hot and sunny day here in the Fort Myers area.
Only 1.23" at the house, 1.50" at Page Field (Official Reporting Station) for the first 9 days of July.
Normally, Fort Myers sees over 10" of rain in August.
Record Report

Statement as of 5:15 PM CDT on August 8, 2015

... Record high temperature tied at New Orleans Audubon Park...

a record high temperature of 100 degrees was tied at New Orleans
Audubon Park today. This ties the old record of 100 set in 1935.
The complex of storms last night, now in the GOM was quite a Light Show and dropped the Heat Index at 10pm of 100F to like 84F in 20 minutes.
206. SuzK
Quoting 196. pablosyn:



It was almost 104ºF in South Brazil yesterday.


The same post said 100 in northern Argentina. Wow!! It is still WINTER there...or so we would be led to believe by the calendar. Just wow.
Quoting 206. SuzK:



The same post said 100 in northern Argentina. Wow!! It is still WINTER there...or so we would be led to believe by the calendar. Just wow.
Strong to super Nino, what should the temps do?
208. vis0
Quoting 109. hurricanes2018:



nice weather in new york city this morning!!
reply on my zilly pg cmmnt#56
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

Strong to super Nino, what should the temps do?


be above average
Good afternoon over there! At present there are very strong thunderstorms in southwestern Germany (Blackforest, Swabia) and heading "a bit" my way. Fingers crossed and waiting. But I guess it will be a near miss once again ...

This evening I enjoyed a walk at the banks of Rhine River at Mainz (still very warm but with a little wind) and had a look at the water levels as they are rapidly dropping everywhere in the southern parts of the country due to the drought. Little creeks already run dry and fish are dying. Well, of course there is still water in mighty Rhine, but the level is indeed very low. If you like, here a look:


No ship will dock at this jetty for a while.


Steep descent to the boats in our marina.


The dry lawn on the banks. And for comparison:


Same view from aproximately the same place two years ago during the exceptional highwaters in June 2013.


People today even swam and surfed at the banks near the center of the city - which of course is "verboten" at this narrow part of the river because of the steep banks, the usually strong currents and the heavy traffic of large vessels (there are some arms of Rhine nearby with beaches for swimming. Nevertheless all the time people drown in the river. Two days ago a little upstream a father with his son, unfortunately).

Now we have 28C in Porto Alegre. 06:54 PM
Quoting 197. sar2401:

I'm really wondering if we haven't seen the last of this active period as well. I've lived through three changes from active to inactive, and this feels familiar. If we really have switched an inactive period, it may last a while. The last one lasted from about 1971 until 1994, so a 20 plus year period of low hurricane numbers isn't out of the question. I have no idea if we've really flopped over but it wouldn't surprise me if that turns out to be the case.

How do you grow a Japanese maple in a refrigerator? Does it get any light while it's in the fridge? I know the winter period is relatively low light but there is some sunlight. I'm sure you have a system, I've just never heard of it. Japanese maples survive well here, although the last couple of winters, with lows in the single digits and teens have been a real test. The Japanese maple in trouble was just recently transplanted to a larger pot, and that may be part of the problem. Hibiscus here, except in rare winters, either have to be moved to the greenhouse or treated as annuals. Dogwoods, on the other hand, are one of the most beautiful trees we have. They are natives, but also cultivated as lawn and and street trees. The creamy white of their blossoms is like no other, and the fact they also grow wild in the woods really perks up spring around here.

Deciduous trees do not require any light when in the leafless state, so they winter just fine in the refrigerator. I just have to make sure I water every now and then to keep the soil moist. When it is time to put them in for the winter, I just set them in the fridge and they naturally lose their leaves after 2-3 weeks, then they are bare until I put them outside in March. Growth is rapid once I put them out in the warmth.

I would think your Japanese maples should be fine in Southern AL, unless they are still growing due to warm conditions, then hit with a very hard freeze (which could happen). When I was in Atlanta in late November, I saw some at a botanical garden that looked like they had the leaves flash frozen by recent lows in the upper teens. The twigs/branches looked okay though, so I don't think it was problematic in that case.
Yesterday in South Brazil. The city is Taquara, Rio Grande Do Sul - BRA:

what is going on in the GOM??
on the EL Nino front of things nino 3 has now crossed now at 2.2




in biger new on the EL Nino front i think EL Nino has just now crossed in too vary strong EL nino or getting vary close in doing so for the 1st time nino 3.4 is now at 1.8 i think 2.0 is needed for vary strong EL nino




am really looking forword too monday update from the CPC i think will see 1.9 or 2.1 update in nino 3.4 in there monday update some time the CPC can put the # just a little higher then whats showed on the CDAS maps so am looking forword too the CPC update this week



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS NEAR
17W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 15W AND
19W AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 20N E
OF 23W.
TV report I just watched is saying 9 in China and 6 in Taiwan confirmed dead.


I SEE WE HAVE A new TROPICAL WAVE TO WATCH and we do have a low in the GOM TO
221. vis0

Quoting 163. sar2401:

Vis, you just crack me up sometimes. Are sure ex-94L isn't that next blob to the right?
darn the GIF under "still..." did not upload well, it was of that Bugs Bunny cartoon scene where he has spots before his eyes, i substituted "94L"s in those spots ...oh well ...still i think we'll be surprised but what forms (TS)  from now till ~mid October. i really thought 94L was going to be like Bertha, the mess of a TS of a yr or so back, this time by heading back south then re curving up the east coast and Grothar instead of a blob watch, would call it a ©#!%! watch

on a previous sar2401 comment as to thermometers...
...on those mercury encasement while at the hospitals i worked at,  from 1991-94 had 5 breaks as to those old blood pressure readouts.  Had to wear those white jumpers go unlock the special vacums and call fire dept /hazmat ...weird thing as a kid i purposely (age 4-5) broke 3 mercury thermometers set the mercury on fire by splashing different types of alcohol over them (Ethyl, isop., superior70 & campo biejo (no pablosyn or plazared, not Palo Biejo)...last 2 only from Spanish bodegas. Did many chemical experiments as a kid...i have to be an old soul)...gee i wonder if that's (handling mercury) why i'm a nut???
Quoting 179. HurricaneAndre:

Is anyone else having problems with the ascat site.



Link
the 1997 EL nino peaked at 2.8 in NOV of that year so we got about other two moths of warming too seee where this year strong EL nino will peak at
Quoting 211. pablosyn:

Now we have 28C in Porto Alegre. 06:54 PM

Indeed, very strong anomaly in central South America!


And this may happen in Europe on Friday, my!

Source.
all so this year EL nino are atmosphere is at crazy strong EL nino levels so am really looking foword too what this atmosphere dos too are fall and winter i think things will get really wet and wide in CA come mid too late SEP


i dont think are atmosphere was at crazy strong EL Nino levels in the 1997 event or the 1982/83 event
Ex 94L has gotten more air time here than some tropical storms did in past years. In fact ex 94L has gotten more air time than some storms in the EPAC this year. A TD in the Atlantic or Gulf may break the blog. Luckily, looks like that is a long way off. We should appreciate this micro blob in the Central Gulf, might be as good as it gets for the next few weeks.
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

Strong to super Nino, what should the temps do?


Quoting 219. BahaHurican:

TV report I just watched is saying 9 in China and 6 in Taiwan confirmed dead.

Hmm, there may be more, unfortunately. According to this report death toll in China is 14 right now and some more missing.
I have lived in N.W. Florida, mostly retired, and living along the inland water way. From your maps and charts it seems that the heat, and weather problems are located everywhere, but not in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico areas, as has been the situation for several years now. So my question is, why so much of a change in the other parts of the world, receiving, storms, cold, heat, and in short just up-side down weather???
Quoting 215. hurricanes2018:

what is going on in the GOM??
I've been watching that also. It seems that if the shear were to ease it could have a chance for something, however, I am by no means an expert and our local hasn't mentioned it at all.
231. JRRP
well
Quoting 231. JRRP:

well



i no the maps i posted can really be tursted but in tell the CPC come out with there # thats the close thing we have
Quoting 216. Tazmanian:

on the EL Nino front of things nino 3 has now crossed now at 2.2




in biger new on the EL Nino front i think EL Nino has just now crossed in too vary strong EL nino or getting vary close in doing so for the 1st time nino 3.4 is now at 1.8 i think 2.0 is needed for vary strong EL nino




am really looking forword too monday update from the CPC i think will see 1.9 or 2.1 update in nino 3.4 in there monday update some time the CPC can put the # just a little higher then whats showed on the CDAS maps so am looking forword too the CPC update this week


When it goes down you say that it can't be trusted but now that it shows and increase in temps you post them.
Quoting 236. Gearsts:

When it goes down you say that it can't be trusted but now that it shows and increase in temps you post them.



i gust thats how i am
Rain chances are going up toward the end of the week for Houston. My lawn is super crispy
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days


a hole lot of nothing going on out there i think are hurricane season had a ch when we where back in june but has we haded in too july and now AUGS and with EL Nino kicking in too high gear now things have this be come more and more unfavorable for any thing out there i really see no name storms for the rest of the moth
Quoting 234. GeoffreyWPB:




Downcaster.
VIDEO: Someone was driving in Taiwan today when the vehicle in front was swept away by a tornado (1-mniute-long video):

Link
242. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 27N87W TO 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W...
Quoting 240. Grothar:



Downcaster.



wishcaster
244. beell
Quoting 241. DCSwithunderscores:

VIDEO: Someone was driving in Taiwan today when the vehicle in front was swept away by a tornado (1-mniute-long video):

Link


Appears they were swept forward and to the right a bit-but not "away". A fortunate twist of fate for the driver that captured the video. The other driver failed to yield and experienced some instant karma.
Quoting 241. DCSwithunderscores:

VIDEO: Someone was driving in Taiwan today when the vehicle in front was swept away by a tornado (1-mniute-long video):

Link



Quite a scene. Great video.
Quoting 242. beell:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 27N87W TO 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W...
And here's our low on the map, although shown as 1013 mb rather than the 1014 pegged by the NHC -



And here it is on the WV loop. Doesn't look too bad except it's headed in the wrong direction, straight into some high pressure and dry air. We'll see what happens.

Quoting 244. beell:



Appears they were swept forward and to the right a bit-but not "away". A fortunate twist of fate for the driver that captured the video. The other driver failed to yield and experienced some instant karma.
I was thinking the same thing. If he hadn't been such a jerk, he wouldn't have been "swept away".
Quoting 213. HurrMichaelOrl:


Deciduous trees do not require any light when in the leafless state, so they winter just fine in the refrigerator. I just have to make sure I water every now and then to keep the soil moist. When it is time to put them in for the winter, I just set them in the fridge and they naturally lose their leaves after 2-3 weeks, then they are bare until I put them outside in March. Growth is rapid once I put them out in the warmth.

I would think your Japanese maples should be fine in Southern AL, unless they are still growing due to warm conditions, then hit with a very hard freeze (which could happen). When I was in Atlanta in late November, I saw some at a botanical garden that looked like they had the leaves flash frozen by recent lows in the upper teens. The twigs/branches looked okay though, so I don't think it was problematic in that case.
Makes sense now that you explain it. I've just never lived anywhere that required artificial cold for wintering over. I've forced bulbs in a fridge, but that's about the most experience I have with fridges and plants. Japanese maples generally do OK here, although they do leaf out early on occasion and get caught by a frost. They look terrible for a week or two but then recover. I think they are rated as hardy down to zero although I'd rather not test that theory.
Quoting 229. johnnytrigg:

I have lived in N.W. Florida, mostly retired, and living along the inland water way. From your maps and charts it seems that the heat, and weather problems are located everywhere, but not in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico areas, as has been the situation for several years now. So my question is, why so much of a change in the other parts of the world, receiving, storms, cold, heat, and in short just up-side down weather???
I don't really understand your question. Pensacola and much of the Panhandle had the worst floods in their history a year ago April. Central Florida just had record breaking rains. SE Florida is having a drought. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and the Atlantic off Florida are some of the warmest on record. There's been a lot of weather in Florida. There haven't been any hurricanes though. Is that what you're really asking about?
Quoting 247. sar2401:

I was thinking the same thing. If he hadn't been such a jerk, he wouldn't have been "swept away".
In the comments someone saying it's a fake .... though I'm not quite sure how one would fake such a vid ....

Looks like the tornado touched down just over the head of the driver with the camera....
Quoting 221. vis0:


darn the GIF under "still..." did not upload well, it was of that Bugs Bunny cartoon scene where he has spots before his eyes, i substituted "94L"s in those spots ...oh well ...still i think we'll be surprised but what forms (TS)  from now till ~mid October. i really thought 94L was going to be like Bertha, the mess of a TS of a yr or so back, this time by heading back south then re curving up the east coast and Grothar instead of a blob watch, would call it a ©#!%! watch

on a previous sar2401 comment as to thermometers...
...on those mercury encasement while at the hospitals i worked at,  from 1991-94 had 5 breaks as to those old blood pressure readouts.  Had to wear those white jumpers go unlock the special vacums and call fire dept /hazmat ...weird thing as a kid i purposely (age 4-5) broke 3 mercury thermometers set the mercury on fire by splashing different types of alcohol over them (Ethyl, isop., superior70 & campo biejo (no pablosyn or plazared, not Palo Biejo)...last 2 only from Spanish bodegas. Did many chemical experiments as a kid...i have to be an old soul)...gee i wonder if that's (handling mercury) why i'm a nut???

I never thought 94L would be anything, and the remnants (such as they are) won't be anything either. I think things are so slow that we're trying to manufacture storms out of whole cloth. When a real TS forms, we won't have to follow it for a week to figure it out.

I can remember playing with the mercury from a broken thermometer in high school chem lab. I thought it was kind of cool breaking the big globs into smaller globs and pushing them around the lab table. I'm not dead yet either, and I don't think mercury poisoning explains either of our nutty tendencies. :-0
We're down to 84 F, which is pretty good for this hour of the night. Maybe we'll go sub-80 tonight!!!

Quoting 250. BahaHurican:

In the comments someone saying it's a fake .... though I'm not quite sure how one would fake such a vid ....

Looks like the tornado touched down just over the head of the driver with the camera....
It doesn't look fake to me. If you stop the video at 0:14 seconds you'll see a female on the ground that appears to have been ejected from the passenger side of vehicle that was caught up the tornado. The guy in the blue shirt was apparently running out of the stopped car to check on her. You know how I am about spotting fakes. This one looks real as far as I can tell.
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:

We're down to 84 F, which is pretty good for this hour of the night. Maybe we'll go sub-80 tonight!!!




did you say -80?


how about a temper like this then


Link
Quoting 241. DCSwithunderscores:

VIDEO: Someone was driving in Taiwan today when the vehicle in front was swept away by a tornado (1-mniute-long video):

Link
Had to watch four times to get it. From my perspective, looks like "chasers" in the car filming the twister ran a red light or two. You can see the traffic lights when you look closely. A pedestrian went to help someone who was down. Maybe that (down person) was the person who made made the left turn, or maybe that driver went to kingdom come. fwiw, the vid looks real.

Ps. From the vid title, I guess that's a traffic cam shot, not "chasers" film. Nevermind. The cam's insider the vehicle.
GFS has a small low off the northern gulf coast in a week.. .It has larger system near the east coast of Florida at 360 hours...To far out, but I thought it was interesting.

Very Interesting.
Quoting 254. Tazmanian:



did you say -80?


how about a temper like this then


Link


-104F. That would be a cold day even on Mars.
I'm a little surprised that the record high for the Hong Kong Observatory is so low. A downtown location in a megalopolis in the subtropics and on a continent--I'd expect temperatures to reach 100F now and then.


Quite the temperature fluxuation
nothingtoofancy, 1830F = 999C, and 999 is an error code meaning disregard the data.
What the hell, Hawaii...
Quoting 241. DCSwithunderscores:

VIDEO: Someone was driving in Taiwan today when the vehicle in front was swept away by a tornado (1-mniute-long video):

Link
I'll give em a pass on running the red lights. Looks like the tornado was coming at them from an angle from behind.
At least Hilda will be weak by then Trent. Could be some impressive orographic enhanced rainfall totals.

Quoting 245. Grothar:




Quite a scene. Great video.

Dang. You can see the car way up in the funnel. The guy inside knows he's about to die when he hits the ground. Scary.
Quoting 259. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm a little surprised that the record high for the Hong Kong Observatory is so low. A downtown location in a megalopolis in the subtropics and on a continent--I'd expect temperatures to reach 100F now and then.


The observatory is in the tropics, at 22 d 18 m N.
Quoting 266. DCSwithunderscores:The observatory is in the tropics, at 22 d 18 m N.
Good point. Although in 10,000 years they won't be; the tropic of cancer will be to their south :)
Quoting 248. sar2401:

Makes sense now that you explain it. I've just never lived anywhere that required artificial cold for wintering over. I've forced bulbs in a fridge, but that's about the most experience I have with fridges and plants. Japanese maples generally do OK here, although they do leaf out early on occasion and get caught by a frost. They look terrible for a week or two but then recover. I think they are rated as hardy down to zero although I'd rather not test that theory.


They overwinter fine in DC.

Chilling hours are a big concern for southern fruit growers. If they don't get enough plants don't develop properly the following spring. Peaches are notorious for requiring fewer chill hours for blossoms than for leaves and trees that are slightly inadequately chilled will bloom normally and then leaf out very sparsely.. or course then little or no crop.

I've often remarked on this blog that deciduous trees just leafing out in spring (March) in Tallahassee look like you feel when the alarm goes off at 3AM after you had to stay active till midnight the night before. Leaf out down there is a more gradual process than up here in DC.

The poster is right. THey don't need light when dormant. I've gone further and keep Citrus in a winter cold garage. It doesn't need light as long as temps stay below 45. Below 28F there is freeze risk including for the root ball.

And no this does not work for bananas or mangoes.
Gee whiz, you folks on the west coast of Florida are getting rain no matter what direction the wind blows from!! Can't buy a good drenching thunderstorm here in Sanford for nothing!! Starting to get dry again. This has been the driest summer that I can remember in the 29 years i have lived down here
Quoting 267. BaltimoreBrian:

Good point. Although in 10,000 years they won't be; the tropic of cancer will be to their south :)


I won't be around either. But I am sure Grothar will be blogging about it...
Quoting 194. BahaHurican:

Don't think I've ever seen a dogwood in Florida... though to be fair I haven't spent much time in the Tallahassee area.


Dogwoods grow fine in Tallahassee.
Quoting 269. sanflee76:

Gee whiz, you folks on the west coast of Florida are getting rain no matter what direction the wind blows from!! Can't buy a good drenching thunderstorm here in Sanford for nothing!! Starting to get dry again. This has been the driest summer that I can remember in the 29 years i have lived down here


Agree, just started pouring here.
Grothar: "downcaster"

Quoting 243. Tazmanian:




"wishcaster"

Acknowledging that I have little meteorological acumen, I must say that I am here merely to read the infrequent small talk by Tazmanian, Grothar, and lotsa talk by Sar. Well, and then there's Patrap, and... Thanks ya'll.
Quoting 265. BayFog:



Dang. You can see the car way up in the funnel. The guy inside knows he's about to die when he hits the ground. Scary.

I think the white van t-boned that tall tree on the right side of the street.
Quoting 274. Alagirl:


I think the white van t-boned that tall tree on the right side of the street.


I think the people in that video need a wardrobe change after that - at least the ones that survived. That was quite the video.
276. txjac
Quoting 273. Alagirl:

Grothar: "downcaster"


Acknowledging that I have little meteorological acumen, I must say that I am here merely to read the infrequent small talk by Tazmanian, Grothar, and lotsa talk by Sar. Well, and then there's Patrap, and... Thanks ya'll.


You made me lol ...I come here for the people too!
Quoting 270. Dakster:



I won't be around either. But I am sure Grothar will be blogging about it...


I'm just lucky I went on the cruise when Noah asked me.
Almost the middle of August......

Quoting 278. Grothar:

Almost the middle of August......




Looks like early june
Quoting 280. CaribBoy:



Looks like early june
El Nio is really hurting the Atlantic, but I expect something to form real soon in the GOM.
Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).
Quoting 282. Dakster:

Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).


1914
Quoting 282. Dakster:

Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).
1914
Quoting 282. Dakster:

Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).


The only reason a lot of us know that, other than studying, is the question has come up before that in 1914 there wasn't the technology we have today and many storms could have been missed. Well, that is only partly true. Of course the technology was nothing what it is today, but since it was pre-flight era, the major countries had large merchant ships which were crossing constantly from the Caribean, Africa, North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Also military ships were all over the Atlantic. So it was an undoubtedly quiet year, there is only an extreme possibility that there may have been a hurricane, but I also don't remember anyone mentioning it at the time.
Quoting 269. sanflee76:

Gee whiz, you folks on the west coast of Florida are getting rain no matter what direction the wind blows from!! Can't buy a good drenching thunderstorm here in Sanford for nothing!! Starting to get dry again. This has been the driest summer that I can remember in the 29 years i have lived down here


Your exaggerating a lot. It's been dry this week yes but the last several have been wet. Sitting @ 22" since june 1st here in Longwood. 2000, & 2010 were some of the driest July's on record. This year has been the opposite with near to above normal rainfall areawide. So obviously you haven't been here no 29 years and if you have you must of short term memory.


-ORLANDO RECEIVED 7.42 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS 0.15
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.


-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 10.66 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
4.70 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 10TH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.


-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 5.90 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
0.27 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:
-CLERMONT HAD THEIR 8TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 10.97
INCHES FOR THE MONTH.



BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR JULY
2015:

STATION JULY 2015 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL RAINFALL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 4.04" 5.83" -1.79" 69%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 7.42" 7.27" 0.15" 102%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 10.66" 5.96" 4.70" 179%
(MLB)

VERO BEACH 5.90" 5.63" 0.27" 105%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 10.97" 7.05" 3.92" 156%
(CLRF1)
LEESBURG 11.61" 6.74" 4.87" 172%
(KLEE)

DELAND 8.93" 8.34" 0.59" 107%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 9.33" 7.73" 1.60" 121%
(SFNF1)

TITUSVILLE 4.05" 6.90" -2.85" 59%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 5.96" 6.07" -0.11" 98%
(KFPR)
STUART 3.38" 6.58" -3.20" 51%
This upcoming looks much wetter for much of FL and not just the west coast. Also for reference 10.40" fell in Winter Park & 12.11" fell in Casselberry in July per WFTV a few days back.

Getting closer now to 1997 levels sub surface to this date in August. This Kelvin Wave has quickly formed over the last 4 to 5 weeks and should boost a 1.8C to 1.9C reading by the CPC tomorrow for nino 3.4.

Quoting 285. Grothar:



The only reason a lot of us know that, other than studying, is the question has come up before that in 1914 there wasn't the technology we have today and many storms could have been missed. Well, that is only partly true. Of course the technology was nothing what it is today, but since it was pre-flight era, the major countries had large merchant ships which were crossing constantly from the Caribean, Africa, North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Also military ships were all over the Atlantic. So it was an undoubtedly quiet year, there is only an extreme possibility that there may have been a hurricane, but I also don't remember anyone mentioning it at the time.

Wow.
Gives you a good idea how dry it is out in the Atlantic.

Latest soundings from Barbados:



Latest water vapor animation:

Quoting 290. BaltimoreBrian:

Abridged Sunday reading. Visit my blog for today's complete list in comment #1246.>


BaltimoreBrian, I just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your lists each day! You provide such a wide diversity of news that I wouldn't find on my own. Thank you for your time and effort.
Quoting 254. Tazmanian:



did you say -80?


how about a temper like this then


Link
No way!!!! -80 is cool .... -104 is way too too cold.....

:o)
You're most welcome Seattleite!

chasSoCal linked to an excellent article about the tree of life in my blog (#1241) and etxwx on the history of meteorology (#1245)
Quoting 284. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1914
Gotta be quicker than that, Grothar is older and faster ;)
Quoting 280. CaribBoy:



Looks like early june


Note the mess of a wave in the SE corner...
Quoting 271. georgevandenberghe:



Dogwoods grow fine in Tallahassee.
Not surprised, given how close Tallahassee is to the GA border... lol .... most of my dogwood observing experience has happened in North Carolina ... :o)
Quoting 277. Grothar:



I'm just lucky I went on the cruise when Noah asked me.
You must be one of the "non-family" members listed .... oh wait .... [Views Ark passenger manifest] "Ham, Shem, Japheth, their wives" ....

Grothar was a STOWAWAY .....
The ULL, looks to be over Cuba may be headed for Texas, the high is forecast to weaken over Texas mid next week. This may get us briefly out of the oven but could just put us in a steam bath. Local NWS put in my words.
Quoting 279. Grothar:


Am I the only one who finds the imagery showing rain clouds over Morocco and Western Sahara at this time of year rather .... strange ... ????

Also, looks like more moisture set to hit the MDR over the next few days .... maybe we'll get a named storm before the end of August.
Quoting 295. BaltimoreBrian:

Gotta be quicker than that, Grothar is older and faster ;)
Haha Grothar also invented high speed internet before Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, but not a lot of people knew that. :P
Nite everyone. I'm getting "lights out" call.

You think I lived this long by not listening??????
It would appear the low in the Gulf has now dissipated, although the surface trough continues to drift SE. We need someone to adopt this trough and track it until it's at least in Central Mexico on the chance the low could regenerate and at least become an invest. Lord knows, there's not much else to track. :-)



Quoting 295. BaltimoreBrian:

Gotta be quicker than that, Grothar is older and faster ;)


Not too many ways you can say that about Gro and being older and faster: old records/people, blob prediction, and falling asleep are his specialties.

Edit:

Quoting 301. Grothar:

Nite everyone. I'm getting "lights out" call.

You think I lived this long by not listening??????


Just proved my third point. Thanks buddy.
Quoting 299. BahaHurican:

Am I the only one who finds the imagery showing rain clouds over Morocco and Western Sahara at this time of year rather .... strange ... ????

Also, looks like more moisture set to hit the MDR over the next few days .... maybe we'll get a named storm before the end of August.
July and August are actually the "rainy" season for the southern Sahara, with violent thunderstorms that kick up huge clouds of sand and dust, and contribute to the SAL we often see. The thunderstorms are a product of the ITCZ moving north toward the Sahara in summer. Most of the thunderstorms in June are dry, but the atmosphere gets moistened up enough that parts of the southern Sahara get nearly three inches of rain in August. Not very much, but a lot for one of the driest areas of the world. August is the only summer month when the average high drops below 100, which is due to the extensive cloud cover from the convective debris left over from all the storms.
Quoting 273. Alagirl:

Grothar: "downcaster"


Acknowledging that I have little meteorological acumen, I must say that I am here merely to read the infrequent small talk by Tazmanian, Grothar, and lotsa talk by Sar. Well, and then there's Patrap, and... Thanks ya'll.
Look, it's those damn nuns who are to blame. They made me take typing in high school, and I can still do about 50 WPM. Sometimes I'm like a car going downhill with no brakes. But thanks. :-)
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:

This upcoming looks much wetter for much of FL and not just the west coast. Also for reference 10.40" fell in Winter Park & 12.11" fell in Casselberry in July per WFTV a few days back.




Seeing that truly makes my day (night). Clearly, the latter half of the week will be on the wet side. Thank God. It is already getting quite dry here.
Quoting 282. Dakster:

Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).
1914 and 1907. Dr. Masters did a blog about the subject last year around this time.
Quoting 297. BahaHurican:

Not surprised, given how close Tallahassee is to the GA border... lol .... most of my dogwood observing experience has happened in North Carolina ... :o)
You must be one of the "non-family" members listed .... oh wait .... [Views Ark passenger manifest] "Ham, Shem, Japheth, their wives" ....

Grothar was a STOWAWAY .....



Stowaway nothing. He was surfing the gnarly waves on the back of a megalodon. It was Noah who asked politely if Grothar was done, because really 40 days and 40 nights was on a boat stuffed with seasick animals wasn't really all that fun.

Noah: "Verily I have thrown up my sandals from this continuous storm. Couldst though kindly cease?"
Grothar: "BEST. HURRICANE. SEASON. EVAR!!!!"
Noah: *blarf*
Grothar: "Dude, I just waxed this thing! Oh fine, whatever."

Then Grothar reached down and pulled the plug in the Gulf and drained the world. Noah and family were happy, and Grothar went off to Greenland in an effort to create the world's largest snow cone.

309. vis0
Quoting 253. sar2401:

It doesn't look fake to me. If you stop the video at 0:14 seconds you'll see a female on the ground that appears to have been ejected from the passenger side of vehicle that was caught up the tornado. The guy in the blue shirt was apparently running out of the stopped car to check on her. You know how I am about spotting fakes. This one looks real as far as I can tell.
First (cmmnt by OTHER well respected wxu member) i like giving no one a pass on running a red light unless either one is in an emergency vehicle (ambulance , police, fire dept-rescue). Storm chaser place themselves in danger be it for purely research reasons that in time will help save lives or a storm chaser that really is an adrenaline junkie. and if they get caught up in a tornado i thin its their responsability to make sure no one else suffers for their partiocipation, like a fighter pilot having an engine failure makes sure the plane goes toward the least populated area before ehecting and sadly dies in saving others lives.

That stated it looks like the cam car didn't run the red light but was pulled toward the Tornado's intake(s) as the caras was slowing when it sped up (by 2-4 mph) and was going at a slight forward angle of 357degrees, and i only know of one such vehicle that can drive forward at an angle..sar2401 mobile home...oh and he also has the only plane that can moonwalk.

The person on the ground after the white car is dragged away seems to have been there BEFORE the white car passed by that spot. See if one can spot the same colour that person is wearing ~ 70 feet in front (right) of the dragged away white car BEFORE that white car finished the U turn and is lifted & dragged away.

Gonna have to read police reports to figure who came from where, if any of those people are clear headed.

i've posted over 6 ideas (since 1998 on wx or scientific sites) on how to measure tornado activity without placing others in danger (like my 1999 Nerf ping pong ball circutry idea or the use of resonances within specific type lasers to read minute details of storms even before they physically are visible)

The part of the VID i find weird is how the palm trees lined up at the extreme far right side all at once heave up & down a few times maybe a moisture in camera affect?
Quoting 306. HurrMichaelOrl:



Seeing that truly makes my day (night). Clearly, the latter half of the week will be on the wet side. Thank God. It is already getting quite dry here.
Once again, Florida gets all the joy. My only chance to hit the one inch total in the next seven days comes tomorrow and Tuesday. There should be some scattered thunderstorms Monday, but they will be mostly in north Alabama. A front is supposed to come through Tuesday and, if it pans out according to the models, we may have another round of severe weather, with a repeat of the conditions that caused our two tornados last Thursday. As a quote from our friends at TWC shows, Birmingham was right on top of the tornado in Troy, as usual -

"According to the NWS, a tornado was reported 1 mile south of Troy University at 10:38 p.m. local time, near the location of the damaged businesses. One minute later, a tornado warning was issued for radar-indicated rotation; prior to 10:39 p.m., no warnings had been issued for the area."


Maybe they can get on it a little faster Tuesday if we have a repeat. With all this weather excitement, I didn't get one drop of rain. I'll take less excitement and some rain on Tuesday, since that's my last chance for at least another five days.
311. vis0
midwest~retrogradingimage host
312. vis0
is it just everyone else or does it seem nature is schizo as it went (Jan-March) from a winter on the east pattern (winter feel * snows began late) & spring in the west (drying)

to (April-July) a early summer in the east (storms are more wet than severe) & late summer in the west

and a few days ago it became spring in the Midwest (more severe  than wet) and early fall in the west (watching Lows beginning to build up off coast AND COME ASHORE)

Cuban spin? (4:25am est)
315. flsky
I like him a lot on Monday Night Football. His active days playing were a bit before my football enjoyment days.

Quoting 172. Patrap:

NFL Player and Broadcast Legend Frank Gifford has passed at 84.
Forecasts have backed way off the brutal heat wave this week for Berlin. Now it looks like only a day or two in mid 90s and rest in upper 80s instead of a week full of upper 90s.
Showers cropping up below the dry
Good morning, crew. I'm happy to announce that at 3:30 a.m. a beautiful thunderstorm honored Mainz with its presence, leaving 10mm (0,4 inches) of very welcome rain! :-)

Due to instable warm airmasses more storms (hopefully not too violent) should develop over the day in my western part of Germany :-)) Nothing yet for the East (including Berlin with Largeeyes, I guess).

Interesting setup in central/southern Europe according to Estofex:



Estofex-SYNOPSIS:
A weak high pressure system over the Baltic Sea was connected to the Azores high, but is being cut off by an Atlantic low moving over the British Isles to Norway and a small low over Germany. A band with warm unstable airmass curls around that low and should produce thunderstorms mainly over western Germany, and also Poland and Ukraine/Russia, where a shortwave upper trough with surface occlusion should activate convection.
The most active system is the upper cut-off low dwelling between southern France and the Tyrrhenean Sea. The cold air bubble is circled by a mid level jet and vorticity advection which creates deep layer shear and destabilization along the Italian west coast. Thermal lows are also found over western Iberia and western Turkey.



Watch the cut-off low swirling in the Gulf of Genoa.
Some more heatwave news:

Heatwave kills 21 in Egypt
PTI | Aug 10, 2015, 10.52 AM IST
CAIRO: At least 21 people have died and 66 others suffered exhaustion in Egypt due to a severe heatwave that is sweeping across the Arab country.
Fifteen people have died in the capital Cairo, four in Matrouh city and two in the Upper Egyptian city of Qena, the ministry of health said in a statement on Sunday.
The temperature reached 39 degrees Celsius in Cairo and 45 degrees Celsius in the Upper Egypt governorates on Saturday, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA). ...

Sweden to keep basking in European heatwave
The Local (Sweden). Published: 10 Aug 2015 10:51 GMT 02:00
Temperatures are set to hit almost 30C in western Sweden this week, with warm weather that has headed north from Germany expected in most parts of the country.

Lightning bolt ignites fire that destroys farmhouse
The Local (Switzerland) Published: 09 Aug 2015 20:52 GMT 02:00
A bolt of lightning sparked a fire that destroyed a farmhouse in the canton of Bern at the weekend as Switzerland's latest heatwave gave way to thunderstorms and rain.


Current temperature outlook for Europe and the Mediterranean. Another very hot week in eastern Europe, especially Hungary. After that, in the second half of August, the hot spell may lessen, eventually, in central Europe.
Quoting 269. sanflee76:

Gee whiz, you folks on the west coast of Florida are getting rain no matter what direction the wind blows from!! Can't buy a good drenching thunderstorm here in Sanford for nothing!! Starting to get dry again. This has been the driest summer that I can remember in the 29 years i have lived down here


Yup. No matter what direction the upper level winds are going, all of the rain settles over the Tampa Bay area. This has been the case all summer. When we have an east wind, the sea breeze storms pile up over Tampa. When there is a west wind, storms form in the Gulf and move over coastal Tampa Bay before dissipating inland. When we have this weird NE wind, storms again bullseye themselves over Tampa. I picked up 0.51" last night from a thunderstorm I wasn't expecting. Already at 10.31" through 9 days of August, after picking up 15.48" in July.

Honestly, we can joke all we want, but this is really getting tiresome here and it would be nice for some other part of FL to get the flooding rains for once.
Something attempt to cook E of the windwards
cuban.ull.watching...
323. beell
Guillermo all over again wrt steering, forward speed, intensity, evolution of structure, and shear environment.

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2015

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO HILDA WAS CONDUCTED BY THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON EARLIER THIS EVENING... WITH ANOTHER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THAT HILDA IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL...DROPSONDE AND SFMR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS DETERMINED TO BE 85 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS NOTED THAT THE EYE WAS EVOLVING IN SHAPE AND SIZE...WITH BREAKS IN THE EYE WALL APPARENT. GRADUALLY INCREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT HILDA IS ON A WEAKENING TREND.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HILDA REMAIN INTRICATELY LINKED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PROFILE. IF HILDA WERE TO REMAIN A STRONG AND DEEP SYSTEM...IT WOULD BE INFLUENCED BY STEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HILDA BECOMES...THE MORE ITS TRACK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW... RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A FAIRLY DEEP SYSTEM INITIALLY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08 KT...AS HILDA IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE DISTANT EAST-NORTHEAST. HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY ROUNDS THE RIDGE. AS IT DOES SO... HILDA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A LOW ALOFT CENTERED NORTH OF HAWAII. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DECOUPLE. IN THE LATER PERIODS...SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT A MUCH WEAKER HILDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARD THE TVCN CONSENSUS. THE TRACK FORECAST THUS WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT INITIALLY...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT SEEN IN THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS... AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT HILDA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
The mediterranean cyclone that barbamz mentioned earlier, possibly could acquire some tropical characteristics in the near future. It is still embedden in the upper level cut off low, but it has nice convection directly over it's low level center (west of Corsica):



A WRF modell show tropical structure on 12 August north of Sicily, where the current SST's are around 29-30 °C (source: Link ):

Quoting 320. tampabaymatt:



Yup. No matter what direction the upper level winds are going, all of the rain settles over the Tampa Bay area. This has been the case all summer. When we have an east wind, the sea breeze storms pile up over Tampa. When there is a west wind, storms form in the Gulf and move over coastal Tampa Bay before dissipating inland. When we have this weird NE wind, storms again bullseye themselves over Tampa. I picked up 0.51" last night from a thunderstorm I wasn't expecting. Already at 10.31" through 9 days of August, after picking up 15.48" in July.

Honestly, we can joke all we want, but this is really getting tiresome here and it would be nice for some other part of FL to get the flooding rains for once.
I'll say. Here in Naples, we've seen a whopping 0.29" this month. We're below normal for the month, below normal for the summer, and below normal for the year. Of course, we're not in nearly as bad a shape as Dade and Broward so far as rain goes, but, still, keep reading of the heavy rains that have befallen the west coast of Florida and all I can ask myself is, "huh?"



Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 101052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W.
Quoting 323. beell:

Guillermo all over again wrt steering, forward speed, intensity, evolution of structure, and shear environment.

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2015

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO HILDA WAS CONDUCTED BY THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON EARLIER THIS EVENING... WITH ANOTHER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THAT HILDA IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL...DROPSONDE AND SFMR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS DETERMINED TO BE 85 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS NOTED THAT THE EYE WAS EVOLVING IN SHAPE AND SIZE...WITH BREAKS IN THE EYE WALL APPARENT. GRADUALLY INCREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT HILDA IS ON A WEAKENING TREND.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HILDA REMAIN INTRICATELY LINKED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PROFILE. IF HILDA WERE TO REMAIN A STRONG AND DEEP SYSTEM...IT WOULD BE INFLUENCED BY STEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HILDA BECOMES...THE MORE ITS TRACK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW... RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A FAIRLY DEEP SYSTEM INITIALLY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08 KT...AS HILDA IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE DISTANT EAST-NORTHEAST. HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY ROUNDS THE RIDGE. AS IT DOES SO... HILDA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A LOW ALOFT CENTERED NORTH OF HAWAII. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DECOUPLE. IN THE LATER PERIODS...SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT A MUCH WEAKER HILDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARD THE TVCN CONSENSUS. THE TRACK FORECAST THUS WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT INITIALLY...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT SEEN IN THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS... AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT HILDA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
MORNING to all... looks, feels and sounds like rain here this morning .... :-)
Quoting 325. Neapolitan:

I'll say. Here in Naples, we've seen a whopping 0.29" this month. We're below normal for the month, below normal for the summer, and below normal for the year. Of course, we're not in nearly as bad a shape as Dade and Broward so far as rain goes, but, still, keep reading of the heavy rains that have befallen the west coast of Florida and all I can ask myself is, "huh?"





Right. The "west coast" is too broad a statement, as none of the FL Gulf Coast has picked up anywhere close to the amount of rain as the Tampa Bay area so far in 2015. Since the rainy season started at my location in mid-May, I've picked up around 42" of rain (in about 3 months!). Thankfully the tropics are quiet, because if a tropical system affected the Tampa Bay area right now, this town might become uninhabitable. The standing water has gotten better in the last week, but all of the rivers/creeks/retention ponds are a stiff breeze away from overflowing again. And, of course, another trough is dipping southward later this week only to stall in the exact same spot as the other ones and bring us flooding rains again.
we are now at 1.9 for nino 3.4 wish means i think we now have vary strong EL nino or vary close


05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9

and here the # the CPC will uesd this week

nino 1 and 2 2.6

nino 3 2.3

nino 3.4 1.9

nino 4 0.9

from here

Link

"Something attempt to cook E of the windwards" Yes looks like it. Should start affecting Barbados tonight.
We are now ahead of 1997 in both Nino 3.4 & Nino 4. Also we are close to 1997 in Nino 3 too. As expected this El-Nino is likely going to top 1997's event because the warmest anomalies are expected to surface across Nino 3.4 as opposed to Nino 1&2.

05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9
Quoting 325. Neapolitan:

I'll say. Here in Naples, we've seen a whopping 0.29" this month. We're below normal for the month, below normal for the summer, and below normal for the year. Of course, we're not in nearly as bad a shape as Dade and Broward so far as rain goes, but, still, keep reading of the heavy rains that have befallen the west coast of Florida and all I can ask myself is, "huh?"





Damm Nea! Something strange about S FL this year with regards to its rain pattern. Seems to be a sharp cut off from Fort Myers over to Fort Pierce.
Quoting 333. Tazmanian:

we are now at 1.9 for nino 3.4 wish means i think we now have vary strong EL nino or vary close


05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9

and here the # the CPC will uesd this week

nino 1 and 2 2.6

nino 3 2.3

nino 3.4 1.9

nino 4 0.9

from here

Link


Hi Taz, we are officially past 1997 across 2 ENSO regions to date. As expected like myself and you have said we are going to pass 1997's event because highest anomalies are surfacing further west compared to 1997.
Everyone has by now seen the amazing carcam video of the Taiwan typhoon-borne tornado sweeping up cars and everything else. For those of you questioning its provenance, here's a view from another carcam from the other side of the twister, and a few hundred yards away. The quality is a bit lower, but it works anyway:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=18c_1439149230.

(The time stamp is way off, but it's clearly the same event.)
I hope so!

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL INFLUENCING THE PENINSULA AND
MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LATE WEEK LOOKS POISED TO BE
FAIRLY WET. 7 DAY WPC QPF VALUES ACROSS THE RGN ARE BTWN 2-3
INCHES...HIGHER THAN WEVE SEEN IN A WHILE.
With today's CPC update we have a excellent shot @ 2.5C to 2.8C for this ENSO. Notice the upwelling of warm anomalies across the Central Pacific. Every model shows this infact the August update on the Euro peaks over 3C with warmest anomalies more central than eastern Pacific



Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Taz, we are officially past 1997 across 2 ENSO regions to date. As expected like myself and you have said we are going to pass 1997's event because highest anomalies are surfacing further west compared to 1997.



i think the 1997 El nino peaked at 2.8 in nov that year so we have now just hit 1.9 in nino 3.4 so i think we got a little to go be for we can past 1997 event


what do we need for a vary strong EL nino is it 1.9 or above?
Quoting 324. Zivipotty:

The mediterranean cyclone that barbamz mentioned earlier, possibly could acquire some tropical characteristics in the near future. It is still embedden in the upper level cut off low, but it has nice convection directly over it's low level center (west of Corsica):...
A WRF modell show tropical structure on 12 August north of Sicily, where the current SST's are around 29-30 C (source: Link ):



Lol, maybe the same procedure as last year: Mediterranean has to fill in with some medicanes due to a lack of Atlantic activity. NHC should deploy Miss Piggy and collegues in our bathtube in order to spend this year's budget :-)
And thanks for the link! Didn't know that until now - bookmarked!
Quoting 341. Tazmanian:




i think the 1997 El nino peaked at 2.8 in nov that year so we have now just hit 1.9 in nino 3.4 so i think we got a little to go be for we can past 1997 event


what do we need for a vary strong EL nino is it 1.9 or above?


Comparing the dates to 1997 we are past this same week in 1997 with regards to Nino 3.4 & Nino 4.

06AUG1997 25.3 4.3 27.8 2.6 28.8 1.8 29.4 0.7

05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9
344. vis0
MamaNaNa:: ♪**Reveille**♪ Rise n Shine everyone i've something for everyone to claim they saw it first
Quoting 343. StormTrackerScott:



Comparing the dates to 1997 we are past this same week in 1997 with regards to Nino 3.4 & Nino 4.

06AUG1997 25.3 4.3 27.8 2.6 28.8 1.8 29.4 0.7

05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9



oh that what you meant sorry if i miss understoned


i noted nino 1 and 2 was at 4.3 at that time too this time around its at 2.6 is that be come are EL nino is more E then 1997 event?
To have this powerful of a El-Nino in place with the whole Pacific being warmer than average is just unreal. Usually Super El-Nino's have concentrated anomalies near the Equator with cooler anomalies further north not the whole Pacific looking like this.



Quoting 345. Tazmanian:




oh that what you meant sorry if i miss understoned


i noted nino 1 and 2 was at 4.3 at that time too this time around its at 2.6 is that be come are EL nino is more E then 1997 event?


This El-Nino is more Centrally located with its highest anomalies 1997 was more east located.
Floods in Chile kill at least five
Buenos Aires Herald, Monday, Aug. 10, 2015
SANTIAGO - A state of emergency has been declared by the Chilean government in the northern cities of Antofagasta and Tocopilla due to the strong winds and heavy rains.
At least five people have been killed in the torrential rains in Chile this weekend, officials said yesterday. Three people were reported killed in extreme northern Chile, which has been battered by powerful winds, torrential rains and mudslides. Two people died on Saturday in the cities of Valparaiso and Coquimbo. ...






Flooding will continue to be an issue this upcoming week in the Tampa Bay area with heavy rains expected later this week. The ground is still completely saturated and there is nowhere else for the water to go. I expect numerous flood warnings to be issued by the NWS either today or tomorrow.
Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:



This El-Nino is more Centrally located with its highest anomalies 1997 was more east located.



how will this play a roll in CA weather this fall am thinking that CA could have a wide wet mid too late SEP all so any one have the ESIP or what ever its call update? wounder where that is at
Quoting 348. barbamz:

Floods in Chile kill at least five
Buenos Aires Herald, Monday, Aug. 10, 2015
SANTIAGO — A state of emergency has been declared by the Chilean government in the northern cities of Antofagasta and Tocopilla due to the strong winds and heavy rains.
At least five people have been killed in the torrential rains in Chile this weekend, officials said yesterday. Three people were reported killed in extreme northern Chile, which has been battered by powerful winds, torrential rains and mudslides. Two people died on Saturday in the cities of Valparaiso and Coquimbo. ...



Hi Barbamz, pretty serious across Chile right now and its this type of jet that could be targeting Cali & FL this Winter.
Quoting 350. Tazmanian:




how will this play a roll in CA weather this fall am thinking that CA could have a wide wet mid too late SEP all so any one have the ESIP or what ever its call update? wounder where that is at


Well look at whats going on in Chile. That is one powerful jet slamming all across the Pacific right into Chile. Once the cool season begins across the US then watchout as California to FL are in for some serious weather this Winter.
Quoting 282. Dakster:

Trivia question. In recorded history has there been a year without at least a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic?

If so, list the year(s).


Several in the pre-satellite era. But after the satellite era? Unprecedented AFAIK.

I think 2015 will see a hurricane in September, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a season without a major hurricane like 2013.
Quoting 352. StormTrackerScott:



Well look at whats going on in Chile. That is one powerful jet slamming all across the Pacific right into Chile.


wow thats nuts


but how can the jet be all the way down in too Chile too where are jet is normly up in AK at just time of year unless there 2 jets
Quoting 353. CybrTeddy:



Several in the pre-satellite era. But after the satellite era? Unprecedented AFAIK.

I think 2015 will see a hurricane, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a season without a major hurricane like 2013 was. 2014 was pretty inactive, but at least 2014 had a few interesting hurricanes like Arthur, Edouard, and Gonzalo...



wasnt Gonzalo a major hurricane just be for it weak in and made land fall
Quoting 354. Tazmanian:



wow thats nuts


but how can the jet be all the way down in too Chile too where are jet is normly up in AK at just time of year unless there 2 jets


It's the sub tropical jet. Once our cool season begins across the US is when we will begin to see something similar occur across the US. That is when our Southern jet will take shape.
Quoting 356. StormTrackerScott:



It's the sub tropical jet. Once our cool season begins across the US is when we will begin to see something similar occur across the US. That is when our Southern jet will take shape.



that mean giveing how strong the S jet is right now CA could have some really strong atmosphere rivers event
Here's a precipitation anomaly map showing the amazing differences in rainfall across Florida for the current water year (which began last October 1). If nothing else, this should finally put to rest all that inane talk of some supposed Tampa "shield":



Source: Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(FWIW, my home is in a yellow -4 to -6 area.)
Quoting 357. Tazmanian:




that mean giveing how strong the S jet is right now CA could have some really strong atmosphere rivers event


Most certainly Taz. Remember Chile is getting slammed as a result of 1.7C to 1.9C anomalies with this El-Nino so far just imagine once Nino 3.4 starts to surpass 2.5C. I suspect there is going to be some spectacular rainfall events especially for C & S Cali this Winter.
Quoting 358. Neapolitan:

Here's a precipitation anomaly map showing the amazing differences in rainfall across Florida for the current water year (which began last October 1). If nothing else, this should finally put to rest all that inane talk of some supposed Tampa "shield":



Source: Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(FWIW, my home is in a yellow -4 to -6 area.)


You should be in good shape going forward NEA.
Here comes Fall.

Quoting 359. StormTrackerScott:



Most certainly Taz. Remember Chile is getting slammed as a result of 1.7C to 1.9C anomalies with this El-Nino so far just imagine once Nino 3.4 starts to surpass 2.5C. I suspect there is going to be some spectacular rainfall events especially for C & S Cali this Winter.


cool but what about N CA
Dang. No such luck...
Quoting 358. Neapolitan:

Here's a precipitation anomaly map showing the amazing differences in rainfall across Florida for the current water year (which began last October 1). If nothing else, this should finally put to rest all that inane talk of some supposed Tampa "shield":



Source: Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(FWIW, my home is in a yellow -4 to -6 area.)


I expect the Tampa Bay area will be dodging off and on flooding concerns for the next 14 months. We’re still in the meat of the rainy season now, and then have a strong El Nino to contend with during the “dry” season. Then, it’s right back into another rainy season. Maybe we can finally get some drying in October 2016. I really hope a La Nina develops as I’d take a hurricane any day over all of this nonsense.
decent..N ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
Quoting 358. Neapolitan:

Here's a precipitation anomaly map showing the amazing differences in rainfall across Florida for the current water year (which began last October 1). If nothing else, this should finally put to rest all that inane talk of some supposed Tampa "shield":



Source: Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(FWIW, my home is in a yellow -4 to -6 area.)


Nea, the "Tampa shield" you are referencing has nothing to do with rain events. It references hurricanes, specifically major one's as Tampa has not been hit by a major in over 90 years.
Quoting 363. Bucsboltsfan:

Dang. No such luck...



Try your luck next year. Are. Hurrican season is done.
Noted. That some of are trees are starting to turn color. Likely due. To being so dry
Quoting 366. Bucsboltsfan:



Nea, the "Tampa shield" you are referencing has nothing to do with rain events. It references hurricanes, specifically major one's as Tampa has not been hit by a major in over 90 years.
Yes, that's the "official" definition. But anyone who frequents these pages has seen it used pretty much every time Tampa misses out on, or only receives a glancing blow from, an extreme weather event.
So lucky here in Michigan this summer, only used our home air conditioner for one week.
Good day

It's 85, feeling like 95, and a partly cloudy morning on the island today.

Well, I think I actually got 13....got it?....13 DROPS of rain this morning. Don't know if I can handle these totals! Really hoping something gives soon. I looked at the stats for the past couple of months and the last time it rained was May 22nd (and that's not guaranteeing that it was this side of the island).

The Annual Chili Cook Off is happening next Sunday. It's been known to shut down early because of weather more than once. Let's see what happens.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

372. yoboi
103 yesterday in south Louisiana....I am ready for some cooler weather...
Quoting 370. FIVEPOINTO:

So lucky here in Michigan this summer, only used our home air conditioner for one week.


in DC metro I only used mine once this week.

From 12:00:00 AM 8/3 to 11:59:59 PM 8/9
Quoting 361. StormTrackerScott:

Here comes Fall.


in the mid-west not the northeast
Splash, and then das "Poof".

The NMME mean rose from 2.6C in July to 2.8C in August. Incredible consensus now on a record breaking El-Nino.

Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



You should be in good shape going forward NEA.
I'm not nearly as worried about the SW coast as I am about Dade and Broward. There's already an incredible amount of saltwater intrusion into the aquifer thanks to it being drawn down by the growing millions in Southeast Florida; precipitation shortfalls measured in feet obviously don't help that situation. And, sure, the rains will return; they always do. But, as with California, a lot of damage can be done between now and then...
Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:

To have this powerful of a El-Nino in place with the whole Pacific being warmer than average is just unreal. Usually Super El-Nino's have concentrated anomalies near the Equator with cooler anomalies further north not the whole Pacific looking like this.






Yeah this makes me wonder about the Mid Atlantic winter also.

Quoting 371. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good day

It's 85, feeling like 95, and a partly cloudy morning on the island today.

Well, I think I actually got 13....got it?....13 DROPS of rain this morning. Don't know if I can handle these totals! Really hoping something gives soon. I looked at the stats for the past couple of months and the last time it rained was May 22nd (and that's not guaranteeing that it was this side of the island).

The Annual Chili Cook Off is happening next Sunday. It's been known to shut down early because of weather more than once. Let's see what happens.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy




T wave approaching the windwards, rain will stay south of Guadeloupe... :(
in deference to Naga...i will admit...that the CFSV2 corrected is as prone to errors as is the uncorrected runs...in other words...they both stink......

with that said.....i note trends.....the corrected has dropped from a high of an anomaly of 2.2c.....to now about a 1.9C high......are the models...or specifically...is this model...picking up on something we aren't seeing?????




Quoting 358. Neapolitan:

Here's a precipitation anomaly map showing the amazing differences in rainfall across Florida for the current water year (which began last October 1). If nothing else, this should finally put to rest all that inane talk of some supposed Tampa "shield":



Source: Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(FWIW, my home is in a yellow -4 to -6 area.)


See, what happened was the guy in charge of putting up the shield was on vacation. By the time we got the shields up, we ended up trapping all the rain inside. The shields are real. Believe it.
looks like one of the biggest tweeter hypsters, eric blake is stepping back......at least a tad......


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago
Harder for the #ElNino to strengthen much from here bc climatology doesn't cool as quickly as late spring/ely summer



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 51m51 minutes ago
It has work to do in duration and strength if 2015 wants to enter the pantheon of 1982/1997 @paulythegun #ElNino



Quoting 381. ricderr:

in deference to Naga...i will admit...that the CFSV2 corrected is as prone to errors as is the uncorrected runs...in other words...they both stink......

with that said.....i note trends.....the corrected has dropped from a high of an anomaly of 2.2c.....to now about a 1.9C high......are the models...or specifically...is this model...picking up on something we aren't seeing?????







The PDF corrected version is initializing @ 1.5C instead of 1.9C so that is what you are choosing not to see and something I've pointed out before. You should see all the August models that came out the last 2 days Euro along with nearly every NMME member is showing a record breaking Nino. Mean went from 2.6C to 2.8C during the August update.
Quoting 384. ricderr:

looks like one of the biggest tweeter hypsters, eric blake is stepping back......at least a tad......


Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago
Harder for the #ElNino to strengthen much from here bc climatology doesn't cool as quickly as late spring/ely summer



Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 51m51 minutes ago
It has work to do in duration and strength if 2015 wants to enter the pantheon of 1982/1997 @paulythegun #ElNino






Fact is we are now ahead on 1997 in Nino 3.4 & Nino 4. As I've stated below this Super Nino is different than 1997's Eastern based Nino 1&2 event. This is turning into a Nino 3.4 event with it's highest anomalies centered there.
Quoting 342. barbamz:


Lol, maybe the same procedure as last year: Mediterranean has to fill in with some medicanes due to a lack of Atlantic activity. NHC should deploy Miss Piggy and collegues in our bathtube in order to spend this year's budget :-)
And thanks for the link! Didn't know that until now - bookmarked!
One thing thats intresting is that how it could possibly feed off all the hot and humid air around it
Nearly 80% of the NMME members are in the 2.5C to 3.0C range.

Breaking News we now have 7C anomalies growing sub surface nearly identical to this date in 1997. Huge change has gone on sub surface the last 5 weeks as a result of this record WWB in June/July.




co2.org

401.30

Atmospheric CO2 for July 2015

2015, The Year the Climate Strikes back

I am hoping we get this record breaking El Nino and the continuation of strong Kelvin Wave Pulses to feed this beast. In addition, I would love to see this warm pool of anomalous water to entrench itself off the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada up to Alaska. Why? To keep a very strong Ridge of High pressure centered over Western 2/3rds of the Continent and a strong trough of low pressure fed by an anomalous strong jet in the Eastern U.S. this fall and Winter. I will be reporting from the Northeast this winter on any Nor'easters or Big snowstorms in New England. I invite anyone who wants to come with me to join me. I am hoping this El Nino will provide ample moisture, -AMO supply the mA and cP air and the Polar Jet Stream bring everything together. I expect a very active subtropical Jetstream as well this fall/winter. So snowstorms could occur in the southern appalachians this year too. Severe WX in Florida. Lets get to the field and report BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 390. Patrap:

co2.org

401.30

Atmospheric CO2 for July 2015

2015, The Year the Climate Strikes back



I am hoping to get to 500ppm soon
Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:

To have this powerful of a El-Nino in place with the whole Pacific being warmer than average is just unreal. Usually Super El-Nino's have concentrated anomalies near the Equator with cooler anomalies further north not the whole Pacific looking like this.




The huge amount of cool water near Greenland ( probably from run off and the Arctic Ocean melting ) will have an interesting role with this strong and unusual El Nino.
Quoting 391. WeatherConvoy:

I am hoping we get this record breaking El Nino and the continuation of strong Kelvin Wave Pulses to feed this beast. In addition, I would love to see this warm pool of anomalous water to entrench itself off the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada up to Alaska. Why? To keep a very strong Ridge of High pressure centered over Western 2/3rds of the Continent and a strong trough of low pressure fed by an anomalous strong jet in the Eastern U.S. this fall and Winter. I will be reporting from the Northeast this winter on any Nor'easters or Big snowstorms in New England. I invite anyone who wants to come with me to join me. I am hoping this El Nino will provide ample moisture, -AMO supply the mA and cP air and the Polar Jet Stream bring everything together. I expect a very active subtropical Jetstream as well this fall/winter. So snowstorms could occur in the southern appalachians this year too. Severe WX in Florida. Lets get to the field and report BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


All models are showing Nino 3.4 to be warmer than any other ENSO region come September and Nino 4 to be warmer than Nino 1&2. This is a very different Super El-Nino than the one in 1997. Going to be interesting to see what this means going forward as not even 1982 has seen a sea surface set up quite like this across the Pacific. Likely there could be stronger effects this El-Nino across the US than in 1997 but what exactly is the question.


SYNOPSIS 2015081000

P18L

16N, 56W
700 hPa


CIMSS TPW loop indicates a wave.


ECMWF: Continues to be a small 700-hPa pouch that moves into an area of increasing vertical shear in the Caribbean. Dissipates after 72 hours.

GFS: Weaker than ECMWF, with no CL-trough intersection until 12 hours for a merdionally-stretched pouch, which then dissipates after the 48-hour point.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -7.8 0.0 track 72h
GFS -7.9 0.0 v700 48h
Quoting 390. Patrap:

co2.org

401.30

Atmospheric CO2 for July 2015

2015, The Year the Climate Strikes back


Yep..Changes are occurring, and freak weather will likely be the norm. Interesting times ahead.
Quoting 393. hydrus:

The huge amount of cool water near Greenland ( probably from run off and the Arctic Ocean melting ) will have an interesting role with this strong and unusual El Nino.


It is the most unusual Super El-Nino we've ever seen. Just look at what is happening in Chile as just a complete onslaught going on down there with a powerful Pacific jet streaming into that Country. There are going to be unusual impacts I suspect across the US this Winter. SE US especially the northern part could be in for a snowy/icy Winter.
Quoting 390. Patrap:

co2.org

401.30

Atmospheric CO2 for July 2015

2015, The Year the Climate Strikes back


401.30 parts per million. CO2 is still a trace gas in the Earth's atmosphere compared to Oxygen and Nitrogen.



Quoting 305. sar2401:

Look, it's those damn nuns who are to blame. They made me take typing in high school, and I can still do about 50 WPM. Sometimes I'm like a car going downhill with no brakes. But thanks. :-)


My mother made me take typing outside of high school (no valuable class time for that! (and she was right) ) I got up
to about 15WPM, enough for college term papers. But when I became a computer analyst my speed went WAY up and is now perhaps 80WPM.

A high school English teacher independently said

"George I have three words for you "LEARN TO TYPE"

And I'm amazed at how fast my kids can text on a really hostile (in my opinion) touch keyboard the size of a large matchbox.


watching 56 west right now
I will say though any increases in the CO2 level even small since it is a greenhouse gas will trap heat from incoming solar radiation from escaping Earth's atmosphere, therefore, causing surface temperatures to warm. Now granted some of the concentrations do get deposited into the Earth's oceans, through the water cycle.
Quoting 399. StormTrackerScott:



It is the most unusual Super El-Nino we've ever seen. Just look at what is happening in Chile as just a complete onslaught going on down there with a powerful Pacific jet streaming into that County. There are going to be unusual impacts I suspect across the US this Winter. SE US especially the norther part could be in for a snowy/icy Winter.


Two unnerving things.

This El Nino is more Central rather than East Pac focused. DING!
The Northern Pac. is very warm. DING!

I'm upping my order for firewood. Perhaps 2.5 cords rather than 2.
67 counties in TX under a burn ban. 24 wild/grass fires over SE TX alone. KBDI values are running 700-800 over parts of the area, soil layer 7-8 inches deep have no moisture.
Quoting 403. hurricanes2018:


Well if it's not dry air, then it's windshear, although it is not as strong right now as it was in July.

Quoting 394. yoboi:

401.30 and falling and some said we will never see below 400 again.....Let's check back in a couple of months...
Do you have any record of anyone saying that? Please provide links. I've been watching closely, so I know a number of people predicted that monthly CO2 would drop below 400ppm for a few months this fall--September, October, November, maybe December--and that it likely wouldn't drop below that threshold again in the lifetime of anyone alive. A few others have been more conservative, saying that the final hint of the 300s would be seen in fall of 2016. But either way, CO2 is climbing at a faster and faster pace, and whether its this year or next, we'll never see it below 400ppm again as long as we--or our children, or our grandchildren--live.
Quoting 394. yoboi:

401.30 and falling and some said we will never see below 400 again.....Let's check back in a couple of months...


It normally falls in Boreal summer. It will start rising again (to new levels not seen since we became a species)
this boreal Autumn and peak in Boreal Spring next year before falling (to not as low a level as this summer) next boreal summer.
Quoting 399. StormTrackerScott:



It is the most unusual Super El-Nino we've ever seen. Just look at what is happening in Chile as just a complete onslaught going on down there with a powerful Pacific jet streaming into that County. There are going to be unusual impacts I suspect across the US this Winter. SE US especially the norther part could be in for a snowy/icy Winter.
I am concerned about the ice storms. They have been occurring more frequently, and a bit further south. Ice storms can be devastating beyond words. Metro areas of the S.E. U S. may experience severe icing. The most recent disruptive event in Atlanta being a classic example.
Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:

To have this powerful of a El-Nino in place with the whole Pacific being warmer than average is just unreal. Usually Super El-Nino's have concentrated anomalies near the Equator with cooler anomalies further north not the whole Pacific looking like this.





Sometimes Scott I cant resist giving you the big plus on some of the profound simple statements you make.
Added a bit to your note, other areas are also showing deep reds.
Maybe we can throw in the Med as well being a bit out of hand this year, possibly the odd Medicane along with heat induced die offs for the aquatic life forms.

I think that between now and say Easter we will have all sorts of anomalies to natter about.
In fact if it wasn't for the lack of systems in the Atlantic there would be a lot more contributors on here giving their opinion about some of the points being raised.
The "missing masses," would probably also be raising some valid points of their own.
CO2's ability to absorb long wave radiation is established physical Science.

All else is becoming increasingly problematic if the adding of Giga tonnes of it is not stopped.

We will continue to warm, as the temp and anomalies show,..as well as the obs and the events.


Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.

Quoting 409. Neapolitan:

Do you have any record of anyone saying that? Please provide links. I've been watching closely, so I know a number of people predicted that monthly CO2 would drop below 400ppm for a few months this fall--September, October, November, maybe December--and that it likely wouldn't drop below that threshold again in the lifetime of anyone alive. A few others have been more conservative, saying that the final hint of the 300s would be seen in fall of 2016. But either way, CO2 is climbing at a faster and faster pace, and whether its this year or next, we'll never see it below 400ppm again as long as we--or our children, or our grandchildren--live.
Yep..If anything, it will increase dramatically.
Quoting 354. Tazmanian:



wow thats nuts


but how can the jet be all the way down in too Chile too where are jet is normly up in AK at just time of year unless there 2 jets


There are. One in the Northern Hemisphere, one in the southern. Often these split into more than one in the hemisphere but the subtropical and midlatitude jets do not cross the equator ever.

Other jets formed by different phenomena than geostrophic balancing of temperature gradients, do cross the
equator.. I believe the Somali jet has its roots in the Equatorial SH tropics going northeast to India in summer
but my knowledge of this is stale.. someone current please comment.
Quoting 384. ricderr:

looks like one of the biggest tweeter hypsters, eric blake is stepping back......at least a tad......


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago
Harder for the #ElNino to strengthen much from here bc climatology doesn't cool as quickly as late spring/ely summer



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 51m51 minutes ago
It has work to do in duration and strength if 2015 wants to enter the pantheon of 1982/1997 @paulythegun #ElNino




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
The 2015 #ElNino continues strengthening, up to 1.9C in the weekly Niño 3.4- an uncommonly high August value
Ghost Town emerges from Lake Mead






Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
real.deal..african.t.w
Makes sense the turn of the industrial revolution caused a spike.



These graphs do a really a good job in illustrating CO2 levels vs. emissions over a very long period of time done through ice core samples. Even if we took out the human side of it, we are still increasing the CO2 concentrations. It's very interesting even if we took off all the cars and vehicles off the roads and went back to just riding bicycles and got rid of Air Conditioners and Heating in homes and offices, we would still be seeing an increase in CO2. #ClimateChange.



next week summer coming back for the east coast and the south and mid-west!!! 90s everywhere
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Well, adios for today

25th Wedding Anniversary, so we heading out before the Torrid Hours arrive here.

I shall be Hydrating carefully. : )

Ciao'


Check on one another.

Orleans Parish

Excessive Heat Warning

Statement as of 10:05 AM CDT on August 10, 2015

... Excessive heat warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this
evening...

* temperature... high temperatures will be in the upper 90s to
104 over interior areas away from the coastal marshes.
Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.

* Heat index... heat index values are expected to be 113 to 124
degrees this afternoon.

* Duration... little relief from the oppressive conditions is
anticipated until at least Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may
provide a brief respite from the heat in a few areas this
afternoon and evening. A heat advisory will likely be necessary
for Tuesday across most or all of the area.

* Impacts... increased risk of heat related illnesses including
heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of
fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the sun...
and check up on relatives and neighbors.






Quoting 403. hurricanes2018:



watching 56 west right now


Good morning. That feature is starting to lift to the NW. It may bring some drought relief to a few of the islands but will probably not make it far into the Caribbean. Here in the Caymans drought conditions prevail with the odd shower here or there. Our rainfall deficit for the year is about 5.5 inches and would have been much worse if a strong trough in early June hadn't dumped about 13 inches over a 24 to 48 hour period.


Sea weed is also a big problem here
.

Quoting 405. georgevandenberghe:



Two unnerving things.

This El Nino is more Central rather than East Pac focused. DING!
The Northern Pac. is very warm. DING!

I'm upping my order for firewood. Perhaps 2.5 cords rather than 2.



Better make it 3. Might be a long cold spring too. I either have to order 5 tons of pellets or buy a mini-split heat pump soon.
Quoting 399. StormTrackerScott:



It is the most unusual Super El-Nino we've ever seen. Just look at what is happening in Chile as just a complete onslaught going on down there with a powerful Pacific jet streaming into that Country. There are going to be unusual impacts I suspect across the US this Winter. SE US especially the northern part could be in for a snowy/icy Winter.


Has a Super El Nino been officially designated?
Quoting 428. Bucsboltsfan:



Has a Super El Nino been officially designated?
Do we have official names for Nino/Nina's yet?????????