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Soudelor Approaches Taiwan; All-Time Record Heat Returns to Germany

By: Bob Henson 6:56 PM GMT on August 07, 2015

It's been a nail-biting Friday night for residents of Taiwan as Category 3 Typhoon Soudelor approaches the island. At 1745 GMT Friday (1:45 pm EDT), the Japan Meteorological Agency placed the center of Soudelor at 23.2°N, 122.5°E, or about 60 miles east-southeast of the east-central coast of Taiwan. Soudelor’s peak 10-minute sustained winds were 105 mph, according to JMA, whereas the 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center kept Soudelor as a Category 3 cyclone with 120-mph sustained winds, using the 1-minute definition that is commonly associated with the Saffir-Simpson scale.


Figure 1. Streamline imagery from the earth.nullschool.net visualization site shows the circulation around Typhoon Soudelor in stunning detail. Thanks to wunderground member PlazaRed for creating and posting this visualization. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.

Soudelor was moving west-northwest at about 11 mph on a track that would take it directly into the east-central coast of Taiwan around 8:00 am local time on Saturday morning (about 6:00 pm EDT Friday). Soudelor is a powerful, well-structured cyclone with an expanding shield of heavy rain. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 45 miles from the center, and gale-force winds covered an area some 450 miles in diameter. A peak gust of 123 mph was clocked on the Japanese island of Ishigakijima at 11:51 p.m. local time Friday (10:51 a.m. EDT), according to weather.com. Between 1700 and 1800 GMT, winds gusted to about 80 mph at Su-ao, a fishing port on Taiwan’s northeast coast, as reported by Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (thanks to wunderground member bwi for this tip).

Reintensification over the past day has been partially thwarted by intrusions of dry air at times. The typhoon also embarked on a second eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), following one earlier in the week. This time, a once-50-mile-wide eye contracted to about 20 miles in width and has been fragmenting, while a larger ring of convection morphed into an partial outer secondary eyewall. It can take 24-48 hours for an ERC to be completed, after which the newly restructured tropical cyclone has another chance to restrengthen. Soudelor does not have enough time for that process to conclude before landfall. However, as it approaches the coast, Soudelor’s interaction with land will help increase low-level convergence into the storm’s center, and a slight bit of additional intensification could occur before Soudelor strikes the central Taiwan coast on Saturday morning local time. The strongest winds and heaviest rains will be on the north (right-hand) side of the eye, toward the northern third of Taiwan (including the city of Taipei).



Figure 2. Radar imagery shows a somewhat elongated central core of Soudelor, with an open eyewall to the northwest. Extremely heavy rain is funneling into far northern Taiwan, including the Taipei area. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.


Figure 3. A composite (RGB) satellite image of Typhoon Soudelor, collected by MTSAT at 1732 GMT Friday (11:32 am EDT). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Soudelor may be the strongest typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan in three years, as noted by weather.com. The last Category 4 equivalent typhoon to landfall in Taiwan was Tembin in August 2012, according to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. In all, Taiwan has seen 18 Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon landfalls since 1958, says Lowry.

Torrential rain, already widespread across Taiwan, will continue through Saturday local time. As of 1730 GMT Friday, Yilan County in the far northeast had reported 522 mm (20.55”), with several reports above 8” in the Taipei area. Especially massive amounts of rain will fall where Soudelor slams into the north-south mountain range that spans most of Taiwan, and substantial local flooding and mudslides can be expected. Soudelor’s steady movement will help at least to some extent in keeping rainfall totals below the even more prodigious amounts that slower-moving systems such as 2009’s Typhoon Morakot can produce. Morakot was only a Category 1 storm, but it moved in a leisurely cyclonic loop across northern Taiwan, prolonging the widespread intense rainfall. An almost unbelievable total of 2777 mm (109.33”) was reported at the mountainside resort of Alishan, far outstripping the previous record of 1736 mm (68.35”) set during Typhoon Herb in 1996. Morakot caused more than 450 deaths and some $3.3 billion US in damage.

On its relatively steady west-northwest track, Soudelor will strike the coast of China on Saturday night local time. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is calling for a landfall in Fujian Province, near the cities of Lianjiang and Longhai, which together have about 1.4 million residents. The CMA has launched a level-three emergency response, the second highest category in China’s four-tier system, to address the arrival of Soudelor. The passage over Taiwan’s mountains will markedly disrupt Soudelor so that its winds may be at or just below hurricane strength by the time it reaches China. However, the typhoon’s large envelope of rich moisture will produce heavy rains near the coast and for some distance inland, as the center recurves toward the Yangtze Valley.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Although there are no immediate threats on the scale of Soudelor, the Pacific remains active. Tropical Depression Molave, well east of Soudelor, should recurve before threatening Japan and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength. In the Northeast Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilda could reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it move west-northwest over open water. Hilda could approach Hawaii by later next week, although track models continue to diverge on Hilda’s ultimate trajectory, so it is far too soon to know if any real threat will emerge. On the heels of Hilda is Invest 93E, which appears to have little chance of major development on its westward track.


Figure 4. An electronic display at a pharmacy in Lyon, France, shows a temperature of 42°C (107.6°F) on Friday afternoon, August 7. While many such outdoor displays are compromised by poor placement of thermometers, official temperatures did reach 102°F at Lyon’s airport, compared to an average high for the date of 77°F. Image credit: Philippe Desmazes/AFP/Getty Images.

Europe again slathered with all-time record heat; Berlin has hottest day on record
Just one month after setting its all-time national heat record, Germany tied that mark on Friday at the same location, as yet another multiway heat wave swept across much of Europe. The German meteorological agency (Deutscher Wetterdienst) confirms that the town of Kitzingen reached 40.3°C (104.5°F) on Friday, the same national record it reached on July 5. According to Michael Theusner (Klimahaus), more than 100 towns and cities in Germany either tied or broke their all-time record highs on Friday. Berlin's Kaniswall station hit 38.9°C (102.0°F)--the hottest temperature ever observed in the Berlin area, beating the old record of 38.6°C (101.5°F).

Record heat extended far across other parts of Europe on Friday. According to international weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website, Friday’s high of 38.3C (100.9°F] at Genoa, Italy, topped the all-time airport record by a full 4°F. Records at the airport extend back to 1962; the previous reporting site for Genoa was located further inland, with a warmer microclimate. Even at that location, the previous Genoa record was 37.8°C (100.0°F) in July 1952. We’ll continue to keep an eye on Europe this weekend, as several nationwide all-time records could be approached or toppled.

Jeff Masters will be back on deck next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, godspeed to Taiwan residents.
Thanks Mr. Henson.

Currently in East Texas, my weather station says 96F with 45% humidity for a heat index of 106F. We went from too wet to cut hay to no rain at all - but we got 75 big bales cut and up just before things started getting extra crispy. Now we have a burn ban - so I'm eyeballing that 30% chance of rain on Wed with fingers crossed.
Burn bans are now in effect in Tyler, Sabine, Jasper, and Newton Counties in Texas

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 23:36:56 N Lon : 122:40:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 942.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 191km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.3 degrees



Hilda:

The Eye has really shrunk down to like 3 nm diameter looking thru the channels.

Thats gonna sustain or maybe lower the pressure a tad more before landfall.





Thanks Dr. Henson!
Thks for the post, but figure 3 doesn t look like Guillermo.
Pinhole Eye noted.

The Eye has really shrunk down to like 3 nm diameter looking thru the channels.

Thats gonna sustain or maybe lower the pressure a tad more before landfall.



seems like the last few systems have weakened before landfall.....doesn't appear to be the case this time
It looks like the eyewall is open on the west side.
That last CIMSS ADT ditched the weakening flag from earlier.



Taiwan looks so small in front of that huge storm. One can only hope and pray for the best
Where that eyewall comes ashore is gonna be the wildest spot on Earth for a few extended Hours.

This one has Moxie...and that momentum is coming ashore soon.

Easy to post and quip, but I feel for those along that path.

Time to wrap up all the preps and get ready for the dawn to come.

Its bringing trouble.




Quoting 10. ricderr:

The Eye has really shrunk down to like 3 nm diameter looking thru the channels.

Thats gonna sustain or maybe lower the pressure a tad more before landfall.



seems like the last few systems have weakened before landfall.....doesn't appear to be the case this time
Looks more like the eye is collapsing.
Thanks Mr. Henson....................Landfall (the eye crossing the coast) is about 3 hours away and look at how intense the bands have gotten in just the last hour (this image is about 15 minutes old):

%u96F7%u9054%u56DE%u6CE2%u5716
Note the latest frame. The CDO western edge has hit the Mountain range as it slides inland deforming the concentricity.

Quoting 8. NoobDave:

Thks for the post, but figure 3 doesn t look like Guillermo.



It certainly doesn't! Fixed now. Thanks for the catch, Dave.

--Bob
Africa, Atlantic... ZZZZZZZZZ.....


Yeah, seems eye opened up on the west side (different on radar) ..try and stay safe Taiwan. Lot of black hues in that core, I suspect the 2nd half could be more intense.
Thanks a lot for the update, especially for mentioning our bad European heatwave with the (tied) record readings in Germany today!
(The third link in this passage "reached 40,3 degrees ..." leads to an article from Jeff Masters about rainbows from 2005 though).
After quite a lot of posts in the last blog: Good night folks, and best wishes to Taiwan!

Top temps in Germany today:

Source wetteronline.de

Poland braces for record temperatures
07.08.2015 17:41
Temperatures are set to hit 37 degrees Celsius on Saturday in Poland - the highest ever recorded, with electricity infrastructure and trains likely to be affected.
Link

Pictures of Soudelor arriving in Taiwan
Two deaths already
The eye looks like it is opening up on the satt loops but this latest radar frame shows that it has been able to wrap a convective band around on the leading edge of the core just offshore:

%u96F7%u9054%u56DE%u6CE2%u5716
#Berlin40 was all over my twitter today. If we had burned off the clouds earlier, maybe we could have hit it. I'm somewhat shocked by that reading of 38.9 though. Then again that station is nowhere near the city. We only hit 36-37 here in Charlottenburg, Berlin.

Edit: Well...local paper is running with it, so I guess it's legit.

Berliner Morgenpost.

From Tropicsweatherpr's blog.
The SST anomalies off the northwest US coast looks more menacing than the El Nino at the moment.
Yes Weatherman,, a totally different scene when compared. Nice view, unless you're on the beach there. Eek
thanks for the coverage of Soudelor (Hanna), my oldest is traveling around SEA, heading back to Beijing tomorrow, I think -- good to know about delays and local safety messages.

in-laws in the path earlier, but they're way up, mudslides are the risk, and country folk just stay home
This El Nino has really fueled the Pacific basin this season; here was the look three weeks ago and now we are having another cluster of Pacific storms:

Although it's not unheard of to see multiple storms at the same time, this is impressive on any scale.

On Sunday morning with an upgrade to Tropical Storm Dolores, it marked the first time in almost 10 years that there have been at least five simultaneous Pacific tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength.

...
I'll just post the radar link (below) and post this as the last image but the convection just keeps on picking up around the eye area (whether inner eye or outer eye) just before landfall................ Godspeed to all the folks on Taiwan at this point and hoping that there will not be much damage on the coast where the eye comes ashore:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/index.htm ?type=1

雷達回波圖
Quoting 24. weathermanwannabe:

The eye looks like it is opening up on the satt loops but this latest radar frame shows that it has been able to wrap a convective band around on the leading edge of the core just offshore:

%u96F7%u9054%u56DE%u6CE2%u5716

Yep, the development of that band is more than likely due to Taiwan forcing the air within the circulation of Soudelor to ascend due to the combination of land friction and orographic forcing. Typhoons often give off big convective bursts just as they make landfall along Taiwan for this reason, even though they aren't strengthening any.

Also, it must be noted that sat imagery does lag a little behind real-time observations. Even the most recent Himawari-8 image available to me right now is nearly an hour old, and the still commonly used MTSAT-2 is a little older than even that. I imagine you'll see the convective bursts of the southwestern eyewall show up in some fashion over the next couple frames.

Asian weather agency mostly agree that Soudelor is a category 4 probably a 110-115 knots cyclone.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (1514)
3:00 AM JST August 8 2015
=========================
About 470 KM East Southeast of Chichi-jima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (998 hPa) located at 25.1N 146.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 27.5N 142.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) north northwest of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 29.2N 140.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) south of Hachijo-jima Island
72 HRS: 31.5N 141.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
3:00 AM JST August 8 2015
=========================
About 110 KM South of Yonaguni Island (Okinawa Prefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (930 hPa) located at 23.7N 122.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in northern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
325 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 25.7N 117.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
48 HRS: 28.6N 116.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
72 HRS: 32.2N 117.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Near Yangtze River
Hilda's eye is starting to clear out.
Most people in Taiwan live on the west coast and at both ends of the island.
Link
Quoting 20. juracanpr1:

Africa, Atlantic... ZZZZZZZZZ.....


Good...


Radar shows that Soudelor is moments away from making landfall, likely making landfall as we speak.


the east coast need to be watch!



nice spin on the southeast coast line getting ready to hit the water
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

I'll just post the radar link (below) and post this as the last image but the convection just keeps on picking up around the eye area (whether inner eye or outer eye) just before landfall................ Godspeed to all the folks on Taiwan at this point and hoping that there will not be much damage on the coast where the eye comes ashore:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/index.htm ?type=1

雷達回波圖


I really like Taiwan's radar imagery, I think they must switch the software over to tropical Z/R for the public viewing, not just in house, the so the DBZ values visually match the rainfall rate better. As I've stressed before, people often get confused and surprised at the intensity of tropical convection when hurricanes make landfall compared to what it appears to be on radar and for good reason. I supposed because Taiwan's climate is dominated by tropical weather for the most part, they probably use tropical Z/R more often as a standard product. Whereas here the NWS will switch over to use it for TC landfalls for in house purposes, but our radar images of the NWS radar still looks like the standard Z/R relationship, which often makes tropical convective rains look weaker than they are.

   Thanks for the update Bob.....
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

I'll just post the radar link (below) and post this as the last image but the convection just keeps on picking up around the eye area (whether inner eye or outer eye) just before landfall................ Godspeed to all the folks on Taiwan at this point and hoping that there will not be much damage on the coast where the eye comes ashore:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/index.htm ?type=1

雷達回波圖

This is going to be one huge mess, with that eye coming shore and all that rain on those mountains.

Thanks for the up to the minute blog Mr. Henson
44. bwi
Wind gusts well over 100mph in several locations at latest readings from Taiwan central weather. Yangminshan is a mountain overlooking the main city of Taipei. A station to watch for really high readings.

52mps = 116 miles per hour

Ranking Station Name m/sec | BS Time
1 Su-ao 52.0 | 16 08/08 04:45
2 Pengjiayu 49.5 | 15 08/08 04:45
3 Wuqi 46.0 | 14 08/08 04:45
4 Yilan 42.5 | 14 08/08 04:45
5 Keelung 42.0 | 14 08/08 04:45
6 Yangmingshan 37.5 | 13 08/08 04:45
7 Taipei 37.5 | 13 08/08 04:45
8 Dongjidao 37.0 | 13 08/08 04:45
9 Banqiao 35.5 | 12 08/08 04:45
10 Lanyu 33.0 | 12 08/08 04:45
Had to post this last one.............The eye is well inshore now:

雷達回波圖
Quoting 45. weathermanwannabe:

Had to post this last one.............The eye is well inshore now:

雷達回波圖


In a bit, the eyewall (or what's left of it) will probably pass right over my grandparents house...
Quoting 34. TimSoCal:

Hilda's eye is starting to clear out.

winds will jump up to 100 mphor higher soon
35,2ºC today in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil (South Brazil). In the morning we had 26ºC. We are at the middle of the winter.
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Hilda has undergone rapid intensification during the past several
hours, with a small eye forming in the middle of the central dense
overcast. The initial intensity, however, is somewhat uncertain due
to a large spread in the satellite estimates. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, while the latest
AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA are 75 kt and 60 kt. In
addition, there is a CIMSS Satellite consensus estimate of about 60
kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 70
kt. The shear observed this morning seems to have diminished, as
the outflow is increasing in the eastern semicircle.

The initial motion is slightly faster at 275/13. For the next 48
hours or so, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. After that time,
a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the
Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn generally
northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees on this
scenario, and while the GFDL and GFDN models remain right outliers
there is better overall agreement on how sharply Hilda will turn
than for the previous forecast. The new forecast track is nudged a
little to the west of the previous track based mostly on the
current position and motion, and it lies near the consensus models
and the center of the guidance envelope.

It is unclear how long the current rapid intensification will last.
The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows about a
30 percent chance of a 25 kt increase in strength during the next
24 hours. However, the cloud pattern of the hurricane still has a
ragged appearance, and due to the small size of the system any
unfavorable aspect of the environment could stop intensification.
The new forecast compromises between these extremes and calls for
continued strengthening at a slower rate through 36 hours. After
48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong
southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and this combination should cause significant
weakening. The new intensity forecast remains in best overall
agreement with the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

maybe updating the number soon of the winds maybe higher then 100 mph
Heat wave in the South Brazil, yes, South Brazil. In the middle of the winter:

Today:



Forecast of tomorrow:
35ºC - 37ºC

Taquara had unofficial 37,5ºC today. The heat wave will end just around August 14th.
In five hours time:

Accumulated Precipitation since 00 a.m. Today to the Present
2015/08/08 00:00 ~ 2015/08/08 05:00
Updaet Time : 2015/08/08 05:14:06
Ranking Precipitation(mm) Station Name Station Code Location
1 519.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 01U56 Datong Township, Yilan County

that's about 20''
Quoting 40. hurricanes2018:


The waves train continues, heading to the Atlantic desert, ready to meet their faith .....crossing fingers for one to make it at least to invest status...
In 2 days and 5 hours:

2015/08/06 00:00 ~ 2015/08/08 05:10
Updaet Time : 2015/08/08 05:16:06
Ranking Precipitation(mm) Station Name Station Code Location
1 1034.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 01U56 Datong Township, Yilan County

over 40''


Soudelor had a secondary peak of 125 mph before hitting taiwan.
Live feed in Chinese.

Link
Quoting 53. Patrap:



Looks like where the eye should be is already half way across the island now.
The mountains don't seem to have destroyed much of the storm so far.
Massive amounts of rainfall to the north of the eye position.
Getting kinda windy in northern cali...will be next couple of days.
Beautiful low pressure arriving in Chile:





Source: MeteoChile




While this, South Brazil is under strong and anomalous heat wave....during the middle of the WINTER

Today the temperatures reached 37,5ºC in Taquara, in the Paranhana Valley.
Porto Alegre, the capital of the Rio Grande do Sul state had 35,2ºC. Is 06:33 PM now and we still have more than 30ºC. This heat wave is expected to last at least until the August 14th, all coming days will exceed the 30ºC and the temperatures are more than 15ºC above average for August.



Hilda rapidly strenghs to category 1 hurricane. Is the 6th hurricane of season. Probably will become our 4th major hurricane is the next days.





Under anticyclone:




Just to compare 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season with the top 7 busiest season ever recorded in E. Pacific:



Just to compare 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season with the top 7 busiest season ever recorded in E. Pacific:

They really should not include Central Pacific storms in the East Pacific totals

Hilda is the 8th TS of the season, not the 11th. Edit: Since Ela formed from TD 4-E, that would count as well, so the totals are 9 TS in the East Pac.



WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #72
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
6:00 AM JST August 8 2015
=========================
Overland Taiwan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (940 hPa) located at 24.3N 121.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in northern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
325 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 26.0N 117.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
Quoting 61. hurricanes2018:




WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very Favorable Conditions there if something wanted to form.
As I said right after the formation of Tropical Storm Enrique, the season 2015 in the Pacific would break the record for the most training of tropical cyclones during the month of July, the season now tied with 1985 as the busiest July ever recorded, with 7 formations. Some people have criticized me saying that the record would not stand on that 3 of these storms formed in the central Pacific, but there is proof, I spoke with. ( =



Good Evening.
Quoting 65. pablosyn:

As I said right after the formation of Iune storm, the season 2015 in the Pacific would break the record for the most training of tropical cyclones during the month of July, the season now tied with 1985 as the busiest July ever recorded, with 7 formations. Some people have criticized me saying that the record would not stand on that 3 of these storms formed in the central Pacific, but there is proof, I spoke with. ( =



Good Evening.


Only Ela should count towards the totals. Halola formed in the Central Pacific as it was TD One-C. Iune formed from TD Two-C. If they were designated TDs in the Central Pacific, then it makes no sense to count them towards the East Pac totals, so the criticism has virtue.

Ela was TD #4 in the East Pac, so it does carryover and should count. The total named storms in July, 2015 should be 5 storms, not 7.

Quoting 56. Grothar:

Live feed in Chinese.

Link


Need you to translate Gro. Thank you.

Quoting 64. hydrus:




Sw Jog?

edit: nvm
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

ex-94.carib.boy.hunting
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 23:55:15 N Lon : 121:12:16 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

Quoting 72. islander101010:

ex-94.carib.boy.hunting


oh please you guys need too give ex 94L a rest all ready
Over 2' in less then 7 hours:

2015/08/08 00:00 ~ 2015/08/08 06:40
Updaet Time : 2015/08/08 06:45:06
Ranking Precipitation(mm) Station Name Station Code Location
1 616.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 01U56 Datong Township, Yilan County
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #72B
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
7:00 AM JST August 8 2015
=========================
Overland Taiwan

At 22:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (950 hPa) located at 24.3N 121.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
325 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 26.0N 117.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China


it's almost in the Taiwan Strait now.
IMO cyclone Soudelor wind effects seems nothing extraordinary in terms of fury. Lots of rain, instead. The cyclone translation velocity over Taiwan terrain seems to be fast enough to alleviate in part its overall effect over Taiwan.
Quoting 78. HadesGodWyvern:



it's almost in the Taiwan Strait now.

What time do they say for China landfall?
Quoting 80. nygiants:


What time do they say for China landfall?


I'd guess in about 12-14 hours
The eye of tiny Hurricane Hilda is clearing out on infrared imagery. I'd give it 80kts for now...85kt if the eye continues to warm.

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Some nice info and loops below...
Link
The tv feed shows a significant sw jog of the eye over Taiwan.
Also showed 1.3 metres of rainfall.
san.juan.ex94DISCUSSION...REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW SHOWING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP...SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE
AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MEANWHILE AT LEAST SOME OF ITS
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH BY A LOW MAINLY ABOVE
600 MB NEAR 26N/61W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE APPEARS TO HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONNECTED TO INTER-
TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AT SOUTHERN END OF LESSER ANTILLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z TFFR WAS SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION GOING ON NORTHEAST OF THAT STATION SO
AM NOT CERTAIN THE 1.59 INCHES AS MEASURED IS QUITE REPRESENTABLE
OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR...THOUGH SOME SHEAR CERTAINLY OCCCURED.
THERE MAY STILL BE RESPECTABLE MOISTURE STILL APPROACHING
USVI/PR...AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES GFS
Quoting 66. Hurricanes101:



Only Ela should count towards the totals. Halola formed in the Central Pacific as it was TD One-C. Iune formed from TD Two-C. If they were designated TDs in the Central Pacific, then it makes no sense to count them towards the East Pac totals, so the criticism has virtue.

Ela was TD #4 in the East Pac, so it does carryover and should count. The total named storms in July, 2015 should be 5 storms, not 7.




Pablo is talking about the 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season, which is both the Central Pac and the Eastern Pac. That's how Wikipedia tallies it.
winds are down to 75 knots according to Japan Meteorological Agency.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #72C
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
8:00 AM JST August 8 2015
=========================
Overland Taiwan

At 23:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (960 hPa) located at 24.3N 121.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
350 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant
91. vis0
image host

D&T in yellow means next frame(s) have jumped time wise, missing or sat. image i had to reposition to match the rest of the frames
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 23:58:48 N Lon : 121:37:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 942.6mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.7 4.5

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 191km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.3 degrees



Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Quoting 46. meiscat:



In a bit, the eyewall (or what's left of it) will probably pass right over my grandparents house...
Hope they're going to be okay....
Wow, look at the symmetrical CDO pop up last 2 frames. Almost looks annular.
Forget what I said about 80-85kt. With this new frame that shows a nearly complete ring of -70C convection and a rapidly warming eye, Hilda is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane.

Just as a reminder, this was a moderate tropical storm at midday.

Quoting 87. islander101010:

san.juan.ex94DISCUSSION...REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW SHOWING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP...SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE
AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MEANWHILE AT LEAST SOME OF ITS
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH BY A LOW MAINLY ABOVE
600 MB NEAR 26N/61W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE APPEARS TO HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONNECTED TO INTER-
TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AT SOUTHERN END OF LESSER ANTILLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z TFFR WAS SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION GOING ON NORTHEAST OF THAT STATION SO
AM NOT CERTAIN THE 1.59 INCHES AS MEASURED IS QUITE REPRESENTABLE
OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR...THOUGH SOME SHEAR CERTAINLY OCCCURED.
THERE MAY STILL BE RESPECTABLE MOISTURE STILL APPROACHING
USVI/PR...AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES GFS
Sure Hope that precipitation makes it to the islands...
Some places have already 300mm+ today in Taiwan including a spec of red showing up (600mm+):



Wouldn't be surprised if some places manage 1,000mm or more from Soudelor.
Tropical Storm HILDA



Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Forget what I said about 80-85kt. With this new frame that shows a nearly complete ring of -70C convection and a rapidly warming eye, Hilda is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane.

Just as a reminder, this was a moderate tropical storm at midday.




Those small storms sure do surprise! Perhaps another category 4 in the making?
Quoting 101. Patrap:

Tropical Storm HILDA






Not a Tropical Storm more like Major Hurricane.
Hilda up to 90 knots in the 00z update:

10E HILDA 150808 0000 12.9N 139.0W EPAC 90 975

A nice CDO does not an annular hurricane make. Microwave imagery reveals banding primarily in the SW quadrant, although it is on the scale of the rest of the storm: tiny.

EP, 10, 2015080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1390W, 90, 975, HU


the nhc how ever can go this a little higher then what is showed above
Quoting 106. Tazmanian:

EP, 10, 2015080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1390W, 90, 975, HU


the nhc how ever can go this a little higher then what is showed above

That's what I would expect them to do. SAB came in at T5.5/102kt, whereas TAFB came in at T5.0/90kt. However, SAB broke constraints whereas TAFB didn't. I would expect at least 95kt by advisory time, if not 100kt.


Hurricane HILDA

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:47:24 N Lon : 138:53:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.5mb/ 74.6kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -47.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.7 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 107. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's what I would expect them to do. SAB came in at T5.5/102kt, whereas TAFB came in at T5.0/90kt. However, SAB broke constraints whereas TAFB didn't. I would expect at least 95kt by advisory time, if not 100kt.



boy this seems like this hurricane came out of no where
110. 1344
Quoting 109. Tazmanian:




boy this seems like this hurricane came out of no where


Small systems like this can deepen ASAP.
111. bwi
Still plenty of 100mph+ gusts being reported at locations in Taiwan. Taiwan generally has excellent infrastructure for typhoons, but any winds over 100mph are going to cause trouble.

52.5mps = 117mph

Mean Wind Speed|Gust
Ranking Station Name m/sec | BS Time
1 Wuqi 52.5 | 16 08/08 08:45
2 Lanyu 51.0 | 16 08/08 08:45
3 Pengjiayu 50.5 | 15 08/08 08:45
4 Yilan 48.0 | 15 08/08 08:45
5 Hualien 42.0 | 14 08/08 08:45
6 Dongjidao 42.0 | 14 08/08 08:45
7 Keelung 41.5 | 14 08/08 08:45
8 Taipei 38.0 | 13 08/08 08:45
9 Yangmingshan 35.5 | 12 08/08 08:45
10 Hengchun 34.0 | 12 08/08 08:45
Quoting 110. 1344:



Small systems like this can deepen ASAP.


yep
Impressive day for Hilda.

Quoting 100. Envoirment:

Some places have already 300mm+ today in Taiwan including a spec of red showing up (600mm+):



Wouldn't be surprised if some places manage 1,000mm or more from Soudelor.
600 mm = 23 5/8 inches of rain
That is a lot of atmosphere churning around that center.


Souldelor

bob needs too update is blog has TS hilda is now a hurricane and closeing in on a major hurricane in his blog part be low it says that TS hilda will be come a hurricane over the weekend well so march for that idea lol

wounder if bob is still around too where he can see my commit

Elsewhere in the tropics
Although there are no immediate threats on the scale of Soudelor, the Pacific remains active. Tropical Depression Molave, well east of Soudelor, should recurve before threatening Japan and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength. In the Northeast Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilda could reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it move west-northwest over open water. Hilda could approach Hawaii by later next week, although track models continue to diverge on Hilda’s ultimate trajectory, so it is far too soon to know if any real threat will emerge. On the heels of Hilda is Invest 93E, which appears to have little chance of major development on its westward track.
Hilda is quite a storm, I love midget cyclones. Would not be at all surprised if it had a very small area of 100kt+ winds. Wish we had recon data. Looking on a basin-wide scale gives a better idea of just how small the system is.

Southeastern China warnings

Yellow Typhoon Warning for Zhejiang
Red Typhoon Warning for Fujian
Quoting 101. Patrap:

Tropical Storm HILDA






Tropical Storm??? Really?
Quoting 120. CaribBoy:



Tropical Storm??? Really?



no no its just a nic open wave with a eye lol



its a hurricane now closeing in on major hurricane
Quoting 118. MAweatherboy1:

Hilda is quite a storm, I love midget cyclones. Would not be at all surprised if it had a very small area of 100kt+ winds. Wish we had recon data. Looking on a basin-wide scale gives a better idea of just how small the system is.



I wish there was more funding for reconnaissance missions so planes could be sent out for fish storms. Hilda's mission would be an interesting one given its size...I doubt 90-100kt winds extend out more than 2 miles, lol.
124. bwi
Two day rainfall totals. Note 1213mm = 47.75 inches. More rain likely to fall.

Hourly Max|Max of the Day|Max of the Latest Two Days|Max of the Latest Three Days
Ranking Rainfall(mm) Station Name Location
DataTime:08/08 10:10
1 1213.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 Datong Township, Yilan County
2 933.5 Taipingshan Datong Township, Yilan County
3 856.0 Xiongkongshan Sanxia District, New Taipei City
4 781.0 Fushan Wulai District, New Taipei City
5 723.0 Fushan (10th River Management Office) Wulai District, New Taipei City
6 633.0 Baling Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
7 612.0 Fuxing Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
8 611.0 Gaoyi Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
9 599.5 Gulu Datong Township, Yilan County
10 583.0 SIJI Datong Township, Yilan County
125. bwi
Just be careful how you pronounce these districts when you're telling others about these remarkable rainfall totals:

Hourly Max|Max of the Day|Max of the Latest Two Days|Max of the Latest Three Days
Ranking Rainfall(mm) Station Name Location
DataTime:08/08 10:10
1 1213.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 Datong Township, Yilan County
2 933.5 Taipingshan Datong Township, Yilan County
3 856.0 Xiongkongshan Sanxia District, New Taipei City
4 781.0 Fushan Wulai District, New Taipei City
5 723.0 Fushan (10th River Management Office) Wulai District, New Taipei City
6 633.0 Baling Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
7 612.0 Fuxing Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
8 611.0 Gaoyi Fuxing District, Taoyuan City
9 599.5 Gulu Datong Township, Yilan County
10 583.0 SIJI Datong Township, Yilan County
Quoting 90. Starhopper:




Hard to tell.. is it over water?
The Eyewall has reached the mainland.

Gonna take a while for ole SAL to wane
thanks doc for reminding us we are all going to die eventually.....
what are our choices
on another note the caribbean is approaching extreme drought....
we literally cant get a system to last or any areas of low pressure which means we are dry...
Its going to be bad
The RainBow and the Funktop Loops shows to me, that the Mountains may have decoupled or tilted the column as there are 2 distinct lobes of concentric convection.







"data and/or images from the NMMB/BSC-Dust model, operated by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/NMMB-BSC-DUST/
132. vis0
image host

Something is really starting to spin off the southeast coast.
Quoting 105. 1900hurricane:

A nice CDO does not an annular hurricane make.


Umm...

Did you mean "A nice CDO does not make an annular hurricane."?
Quoting 131. unknowncomic:





"data and/or images from the NMMB/BSC-Dust model, operated by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/NMMB-BSC-DUST/
So this shows that I was right in saying the SAL hasn't been as bad here. The pattern seems to be a lower concentration north of the Antilles.
136. beell
Quoting 134. Articuno:



Umm...

Did you mean "A nice CDO does not make an annular hurricane."?




hyperbaton

"What light through yonder window breaks?"

:)
Quoting 134. Articuno:



Umm...

Did you mean "A nice CDO does not make an annular hurricane."?
I think he meant what he said ... English allows such a switch in the word order.
138. beell
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

I think he meant what he said ... English allows such a switch in the word order.


English is jacked up, yes?

Imagine telling any "English as a Second Language" individual that you are "going to take the bus home".
Quoting 135. BahaHurican:

So this shows that I was right in saying the SAL hasn't been as bad here. The pattern seems to be a lower concentration north of the Antilles.
Bottom chart does not correspond with the top chart? So much for a super computer.
140. JLPR2
Quoting 138. beell:



English is jacked up, yes?

Imagine telling any "English as a Second Language" individual that you are "going to take the bus home".


Actually had to think for awhile before the oh...! moment hit me.
I understood what it meant right away and English is my second language. Not challenging enough. XD
141. JLPR2
The remnants of 94L were a big disappointment, like almost every wave this year. Meanwhile our reservoirs keep dropping and the drought keeps getting worse. At this point we need a significant rain event (20+ inches) to get back to normal.

Quoting 136. beell:





hyperbaton

"What light through yonder window breaks?"

:)

I believe someone famous once said, "Big hurricanes from little blobs grow."
143. beell
Quoting 139. unknowncomic:

Bottom chart does not correspond with the top chart? So much for a super computer.


Global and Regional domains at different horizontal resolutions and boundary initializations?

Regional Domain
Global Domain
Quoting 136. beell:





hyperbaton

"What light through yonder window breaks?"

:)



I just now realized how weird the English language can be at times.
Quoting 141. JLPR2:

The remnants of 94L were a big disappointment, like almost every wave this year. Meanwhile our reservoirs keep dropping and the drought keeps getting worse. At this point we need a significant rain event (20+ inches) to get back to normal.





take a # CA is in line 1st we need more rain then you guys do has we are in a 3 too 4 year drought your not your turn will come next season
There is no more normal.

We have and are changing the very biosphere globally.

Sadly, it will only continue.

Imagine a 4 c rise by 2100.

In Africa, a 6C rise will occur there as well as the High Latitude which are warming the fastest.

Humans cannot work and survive outside in that environment. California is a prime example of water depletion.

The Climate Models have consistently underplayed the actuals for over a decade now.

All is far from normal.


147. vis0
sar2401 keep an eye on that blip in NW Mississippi...
Quoting 141. JLPR2:

The remnants of 94L were a big disappointment, like almost every wave this year. Meanwhile our reservoirs keep dropping and the drought keeps getting worse. At this point we need a significant rain event (20+ inches) to get back to normal.





Same here, FAR below average.

It's extremely boring!
Record Report
Statement as of 7:32 PM CDT on August 7, 2015

... Record high temperatures set or tied today... August 7... updated...

A record high temperature of 97 degrees was tied at New Orleans
International Airport (msy) today. This ties the old record of 97
degrees set in 2013. Records began in 1946.

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at New Orleans
Audubon Park today. This breaks the old record of 98 degrees set in
2010. Records began in 1871.

A record high temperature of 98 degrees was tied at Baton Rouge Ryan
Field (btr) today. This ties the old record of 98 degrees set in
1956. Records began in 1930.

A record high temperature of 96 degrees was tied at the Slidell
Airport (asd) today. This ties the old record of 96 degrees set in
2011. Records began in 1994.

Ansorge
Quoting 126. Articuno:



Hard to tell.. is it over water?


If you check out the Taiwan radar and animate it it seems that the center of rotation has reached the water...
How large is Hilda's eye? Looks 4-5 NM to me. Incredibly small.
Quoting 151. help4u:

Humans cannot survive in their mother's womb.60 million killed since 1973 i think we have more important moral questions to answer before our Lord and saviour Jesus Christ.There is no normal because we have turned our backs on the god of creation.God bless and have a great rest of your day!


Sorry but how is this weather related?
Quoting 144. Articuno:




I just now realized how weird the English language can be at times.



I figure if I can decipher Taz's and Patrap's posts, I should be considered an English master.

*shrug* :)

(no offense at Taz and Pat intended)
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:




Same here, FAR below average.

It's extremely boring!


did you get any snow today ?
Orleans Parish

Heat Advisory

Statement as of 10:23 PM CDT on August 07, 2015

... Heat advisory remains in effect from 10 am Saturday to 7 PM
CDT Sunday...

* temperature... high temperatures will be in the mid and upper
90s on Saturday... with some areas reaching or exceeding the
100 degree mark on Sunday and Monday.

* Heat index... heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are
likely on Saturday... and a few degrees hotter on Sunday. An
excessive heat warning may be necessary in some areas over the
weekend. Additionally... the advisory will likely need to be
extended in later forecasts.

* Impacts... increased risk of heat related illnesses including
heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.



Quoting 154. Astrometeor:



I figure if I can decipher Taz's and Patrap's posts, I should be considered an English master.

*shrug* :)

(no offense at Taz and Pat intended)



none taken
the GFS is almost out too SEP I cant wait too see the GFS all most out too OCT I really want too see when its shows CA getting its 1st real fall storm of the season on the GFS in OCT
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:




Same here, FAR below average.

It's extremely boring!
The little "blob" that was ex 94L, was happily approaching the island, when down came the ULL , just on time to shredded it into pieces, not letting a single drop to reach the islands...
How about VisO?

And I trashed my new rain gauge here in SW FL. Quit raining ever since I installed it.
Hope it helps!

Quoting 154. Astrometeor:



I figure if I can decipher Taz's and Patrap's posts, I should be considered an English master.

*shrug* :)

(no offense at Taz and Pat intended)
Hurricane HILDA

8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2015
Location: 13.0°N 139.6°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
jump up to 105 mph maybe up to 115 mph by morning
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace. An earlier
AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was
extremely compact. In addition, visible and infrared geostationary
satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better
defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours. The
current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is strong upper-level outflow
associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western
semicircle of the circulation.

Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to
24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak. In
about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering
stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the
Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase
greatly beyond 72 hours. Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to
commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part
of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or
280/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since
the last advisory. Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the
west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the
cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a
cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.
Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system
should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the
west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow. The official track
forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very
soon, future information on this system will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Global models predict that the shear will increase greatly beyond 72 hours. Hurricane HILDA got only 72 hours left to intensify


cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands next 96 hours its will miss the Hawaiian Islands all together
I'm new to this and have a question I live in mobile ala. We had two paper mills side by side and of course they pumped huge amounts of waste everyday at the time we where considered the wettest city in the U.S they shut down in the mid 80's now the rain has been cut in half why is this.
Quoting 163. hurricanes2018:

Global models predict that the shear will increase greatly beyond 72 hours. Hurricane HILDA got only 72 hours left to intensify
168. vis0


North Atlantic There is no tropical storm activity for this region.


august 20 2015 maybe a t.d to watch
Youtube vid, showing flooding and mudslide from Sudelor in Taiwan.

Link
Good morning after a sweltering night mid Germany with temps not below 25C (77F) and - of course - any drop of rain at my place as some storms chose to travel by north of my region near Frankfurt :-(

Different picture in Taiwan:

Typhoon Soudelor hits Taiwan, millions without power, 8 dead
Posted on: 08:57 AM IST Aug 08, 2015 | Updated on: 1:55 pm,Aug 8,2015 IST

Typhoon Soudelor leaves record number of households without power
2015/08/08 15:46:32
Taipei, Aug. 8 (CNA) Typhoon Soudelor had caused power outages for more than 3.22 million households as of 1 p.m. Saturday, the biggest power loss ever to result from a typhoon in Taiwan's history, Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) said.
The previous record was set by Typhoon Herb in 1996, when 2.79 million households experienced power outages. ...




More see twitter feed from James Reynolds.
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 07 2015

...SMALL BUT STRONG HILDA ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 140.9W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 07 2015

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT HILDA EXHIBITED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS HAS RECENTLY EASED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB ARE 5.0/90
KT AND 5.5/102 KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
NEAR 4.5/77 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS A 90 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN EVEN MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND
4 AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. THE SLOWING IN
FORWARD MOTION AND INCREASE IN LATITUDE ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WILL ALSO BE
DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN DEFERENCE TO THE
CHANGES IN THE GFEX GUIDANCE.

A WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY
INCREASING SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 20 KT ON MONDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BARELY HANGING ON AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW
BY DAY 5. THEREFORE A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN 48
HOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING STILL EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT PRESENTS A SLOWER
WEAKENING TREND ON DAY 5 THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 140.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 13.9N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.6N 144.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 15.5N 146.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.4N 147.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 18.4N 149.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 20.0N 151.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 21.0N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
"I've never seen such a powerful typhoon in my 60 years," one resident in the eastern Taitung county told Taiwan's Formosa TV."

The flood damage will be the killer with this storm and its probably still raining as the storm moves off toward China, there will probably be a lot of damage there as well due to heavy rains.
Later in the day we will start to get more reports in.

Here's the link from the BBCLink

Seems that the rain and winds of up to 140MPH did quite a lot of damage.
No more reports as of this time but its early yet and only about 5pm in Taiwan.

Meanwhile we had a massive thunderstorm here last night in Southern Spain, very strong gusty winds and so much lightning that it was like daylight at times. Thousands of strikes.
Not much rain fell, mostly in very heavy bursts but probably less than half an inch.
This year may be the first year I have seen in over 20 years where it may rain in every month.
Normally we get little or no rain from May until October but this year so far its rained in every month here in my area.
Some heat news:

Venezuela risks running out of beer during heat wave amid supply shortages
'People are more freaked out than about losing water' as Cervecería Polar, which distributes 80% of the country's beer, began shutting down breweries
The Guardian/ Associated Press in Caracas, Friday 7 August 2015 19.33 BST

(Well, if that happens with beer supply in Germany, it would cause a revolution too ;-)

Boats high and dry as Central Europe fights drought
Scotsman, Saturday 08 August 2015
RIVER traffic on the Danube has been disrupted with boats left high and dry, and crops destroyed as Central Europe battles one of its worst draughts in decades.
Dozens of ships have their passage blocked on the Danube, with shipping companies having to lighten their boat loads or transfer cargo to lorries and trains as they contend with a scorching and prolonged heat-wave caused by hot air moving northwards from Africa.
In the Czech Republic temperatures have come close to 40C, and meteorologists expect July and August to the be the hottest months on record.
"The highs will generally exceed 30C, some days 35 and extreme cases they can rise as high as 39 or over," said the Czech meteorological office yesterday. With little rain and the only occasional thunder storm forecast for the rest of the month, July-August could be “the hottest and driest period since the start of meteorological records in the Czech Republic". ...

(Whole longer article see link above)


With extreme low water level in Germany's third largest barrier lake Edersee people walk over a re-surfaced old bridge, built in 1890 and submerged first in 1914 when the lake filled up.


Weather alert in Europe today (mostly because of heat, see the red regions). Source.

Today's SYNOPSIS from Estofex
On Saturday, 6UTC, a positively tilted trough starts to erode across western Europe, forming a cut-off low over the Bay of Biscay and two lifting short-wave troughs moving over Scandinavia and northern Germany in the evening hours. A blocking high over low continues downstream over south-east Europe. The plume of hot African air will remain from the west Mediterranean into the Alps, Balkans, and Poland, and advects into the Baltic Sea region ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. An intense frontal zone extends to the west from north-east Spain to the Baltic Sea.
This wind map is probably what is happening about now with Soudleor.
The entire coast of China north above the remains of the eye up as far as Shanghai will be experiencing very heavy rainfalls right now and the danger of flooding will be very serious.

LinkLink
Quoting 173. yonzabam:

Youtube vid, showing flooding and mudslide from Sudelor in Taiwan.
Link

Umm, that's really catastrophic!
Quoting 174. barbamz:

Good morning after a sweltering night mid Germany with temps not below 25C (77F) and - of course - any drop of rain at my place as some storms chose to travel by north of my region near Frankfurt :-(

Different picture in Taiwan:

Typhoon Soudelor hits Taiwan, millions without power, 8 dead
Posted on: 08:57 AM IST Aug 08, 2015 | Updated on: 1:55 pm,Aug 8,2015 IST

Typhoon Soudelor leaves record number of households without power
2015/08/08 15:46:32
Taipei, Aug. 8 (CNA) Typhoon Soudelor had caused power outages for more than 3.22 million households as of 1 p.m. Saturday, the biggest power loss ever to result from a typhoon in Taiwan's history, Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) said.
The previous record was set by Typhoon Herb in 1996, when 2.79 million households experienced power outages. ...




More see twitter feed from James Reynolds.

Good morning, Barb. I'm only up to sit on my heating pad. Good heavens, there are times I wonder how many things can go wrong with one person. :-)

Did you notice two of the casualties are firefighters? One killed and one injured by a drunk driver as they were removing a tree from the road! Driving around drunk during a typhoon! I don't know what the sentence is for felony murder but hopefully it involves a long jail sentence, bad food, and regular beatings. Grrrr...

Taiwan Power is a very up to date company, as you can tell by looking at their equipment in the photos. They'll get power restored pretty rapidly in urban areas. Rural areas will take a lot longer, at least five days, depending on how long they have to work in urban areas. The "good" thing for electricity in Taiwan is it was established to North American standards (110 volts, 60 hertz) way back in 1946, when the Kuomintang took over Formosa. Since the US was their sponsor for this adventure, they decided the North American standard was what they should use. To this day, they maintain an equipment reserve that would be used by US Army and Navy engineering troops to assist Taiwan Power if the island was ever hit by a really bad typhoon or earthquake. It's unlikely this would ever happen today since the Taiwanese are proud of being "self-sufficient", but the equipment remains as a cold war remnant.

EDIT: I forgot, just so you don't feel too bad, it's still 75 here at 0945 UTC after a high of 99 yesterday. Every thunderstorm yesterday missed me. We have another heat advisory for the next two days as actual temperatures will reach 100 or more with heat index readings of 109-111. This has been a very hateful summer so far.
I actually rather like Polar beer. Put two together and you're bipolar......tip your waitress, I'll be here all week.

I'll find one at the bier mile today and drink one in their honor.
WORLD'S MOST POPULOUS METROPOLIS DOUBLES ITS RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE 35 C / 95 F DAYS: The record most consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 35 C / 95 F in Central Tokyo, of 8 such days, was reportedly set on August 7, 2015. The previous record was 4 such days. Tokyo, Japan is the world's most populous metropolitan area. Weather records there go back to 1875.

Link
Quoting 166. stratman1:

I'm new to this and have a question I live in mobile ala. We had two paper mills side by side and of course they pumped huge amounts of waste everyday at the time we where considered the wettest city in the U.S they shut down in the mid 80's now the rain has been cut in half why is this.
It's a little hard to understand your post without punctuation, but you are apparently asking about how paper plants affect rain. The short answer is they don't, except for very localized effects. Where did you get the information that rainfall in Mobile has been cut in half? Mobile is still classed as the rainiest city in the US according to the information I've read. Go to the Mobile NWS site and take a look at the climate section. If you can find data to back up your assertion that rainfall has fallen to half the previous average, post it here. I live over in Eufaula, and we've had several large paper plants close in the last 10 years. There hasn't been any effect on our average rainfall.



Screenshot of current European weather. Fingers crossed that some of those lovely rains in France will move into central Germany!

Largeeyes, never-sleeping SAR, Plaza and everyone - have a nice day! BBL.
Noting:-
178. barbamz

Here's a couple of lines from a linked article:-

"The flow-rate of water on the River Danube as it enters Romania has fallen to half the summer average of 5,400 cubic-metres a second, and low water levels have forced Portul Corabia, one of the river’s key ports in Romania, to close for business. Even where river traffic is moving queues are forming as boats wait to use the navigable channels still available."

"At the Romanian port of Galati, the water level has dropped to 38 inches, well below the 16 foot needed for safe passage."

With all this heat and no rain, its amazing that there is any water left in the rivers. The Danube will be tapped for irrigation waters all along its length hence reducing even more the amount of flow.
Meanwhile I would suspect, even though I cant find any statistics that the Alps glaciers are melting very rapidly, possibly keeping the rivers in the area running with more water than they would have without the heat wave,
Unfortunately the water supply from melting glaciers is somewhat limited without new input so its a bit like the car running out of fuel, if there's no gas station, then it comes to an abrupt stop!

There is a possibility that agricultural practices may have to change in some areas as water supplies are no longer guaranteed?
Quoting 147. vis0:

sar2401 keep an eye on that blip in NW Mississippi...

Hey, Vis, you mean this one?



It's been moving SE most of the night but still staying on the MS/AL border. I wish it would bring me some rain, but it's very unusual for storms over there to make it to SE AL without a strong front maintaining the storms and pushing them along. We don't have a front now, just a collection of outflow boundaries. There's a bigger blob of storms NE of the main blob in the Tuscaloosa area. For me, it just depends on where the outflow boundaries set up this afternoon and having enough CAPE and general instability to make something happen.
Quoting 173. yonzabam:

Youtube vid, showing flooding and mudslide from Sudelor in Taiwan.

Link

The above link shows the effects of a vast amount of rain over steep sided mountain.
What has to be remembered is that this video is of only one probably small stream in a large area. The houses in the video indicate that there is normally no water in the immediate area and there is even a swimming pool about to be engulfed.
Now if we multiply this scene by hundreds of places and then extrapolate it to the resultant rivers the big picture starts to emerge, (or become submerged as the case may be!)

WE were talking last night on here about Taiwan being used to typhoons and well prepared. Looking at these types of images it immediately makes me think that if they have storms like this regularly in the country on this scale they would not be building villages and swimming pools in the potential paths of storm waters!
This is in my opinion all part of the new era of tropical storms with rainfalls of maybe over 30 inches and if you get that on steep sided mountains then there will only be one result; catastrophe.
Wind speeds are in a lot of cases already taken into the equation with shelters but if you are sheltering from a 140 MPH hurricane and a flash flood washes your shelter away, you are still just as dead!
4% more atmospheric moisture for every degree 1/C temp rise.
Quoting 178. barbamz:

Some heat news:

Venezuela risks running out of beer during heat wave amid supply shortages
'People are more freaked out than about losing water' as Cervecería Polar, which distributes 80% of the country's beer, began shutting down breweries
The Guardian/ Associated Press in Caracas, Friday 7 August 2015 19.33 BST

(Well, if that happens with beer supply in Germany, it would cause a revolution too ;-)
Indeed it would, but what's happening in Venezuela shows the perils of totalitarian socialism. Venezuela has always needed to import the basic ingredient for beer like hops and barley, since those crops don't grow in Venezuela's climate. That worked fine until the current dictator decided to peg the Bolivar at artificially low levels. Now no one outside Venezuela will take Bolivars in payment for anything, since it's worth almost nothing on the international currency market. They want dollars or Euros, and Venezuela doesn't have them, hence, no beer made in Venezuela. Combined with the fall in oil prices and the country being run by a madman, Venezuela has gone from one of the most prosperous countries in South America to a disaster area.
HONG KONG, CHINA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Hong Kong (observatory station) of 36.3 C / 97.3 F was reportedly set on August 8, 2015. Weather records there go back to 1885.

Link
Quoting 188. PlazaRed:


The above link shows the effects of a vast amount of rain over steep sided mountain.
What has to be remembered is that this video is of only one probably small stream in a large area. The houses in the video indicate that there is normally no water in the immediate area and there is even a swimming pool about to be engulfed.
Now if we multiply this scene by hundreds of places and then extrapolate it to the resultant rivers the big picture starts to emerge, (or become submerged as the case may be!)

WE were talking last night on here about Taiwan being used to typhoons and well prepared. Looking at these types of images it immediately makes me think that if they have storms like this regularly in the country on this scale they would not be building villages and swimming pools in the potential paths of storm waters!
This is in my opinion all part of the new era of tropical storms with rainfalls of maybe over 30 inches and if you get that on steep sided mountains then there will only be one result; catastrophe.
Wind speeds are in a lot of cases already taken into the equation with shelters but if you are sheltering from a 140 MPH hurricane and a flash flood washes your shelter away, you are still just as dead!
4% more atmospheric moisture for every degree 1/C temp rise.
It looks like a classic debris flow from a mudslide farther up that hill. It looks like it's not the first time either, as I can see the previously established debris channel. It looks like the houses to the left were built above that debris flow channel. The builders and owners of the house with the pool took a chance, and now they'll have to pay the price. This is not a good video to use if you're going to extrapolate the conditions to all of Taiwan. Very few people live up in the hills. What I want to see is how urban Taiwan has done. For example, the Jingmei River runs right through the heart of Taipei. The Taiwanese government officials I talked to when I was there were absolutely confident all their flood control measures will keep the river from causing major flooding in Taipei. Now we'll see if they were right.
lets see what happern whenn the new tropical wave hit the water later in the Eastern Atlantic
my new blog!!
Hey sar, it was terrible yesterday. Did you get anything?
Quoting 187. sar2401:

Hey, Vis, you mean this one?



It's been moving SE most of the night but still staying on the MS/AL border. I wish it would bring me some rain, but it's very unusual for storms over there to make it to SE AL without a strong front maintaining the storms and pushing them along. We don't have a front now, just a collection of outflow boundaries. There's a bigger blob of storms NE of the main blob in the Tuscaloosa area. For me, it just depends on where the outflow boundaries set up this afternoon and having enough CAPE and general instability to make something happen.
Too far out probably a ghost storm.
Quoting 171. hurricanes2018:



august 20 2015 maybe a t.d to watch
leftover.ex94.needed.showers...P.Rico
197. JRRP
may be ghost storm but 3 models are forecasting low pressure near CV


Quoting 196. islander101010:

leftover.ex94.needed.showers...P.Rico


I...don't..see..that...happening
Quoting 138. beell:



English is jacked up, yes?

Imagine telling any "English as a Second Language" individual that you are "going to take the bus home".


"Let's eat Grandma!"
"Let's eat, Grandma!"

In the English language, punctuation saves lives and prevents cannibalism.
Quoting 153. Articuno:



Sorry but how is this weather related?


Oh don't mind him. Every now and then he pipes up with something crazy but most of the time he sits quietly in the corner eating crayons and checkers. :P
Quoting 153. Articuno:



Sorry but how is this weather related?

It's an example of "moving the goal posts". For years, this character has come on here saying there was no evidence supporting AGW. With that approach becoming ever more ridiculous, it seems he is now going the "it's cod's judgement on a wicked world" route. I guess that means that for years now, climate scientists have really been prophets. Who knew?
What's interesting is since dr. M suggested that even though it was virtually dead conditions would be improving......it seems to have become even quieter.....the entire Atlantic Carib region is essentially void of convection. It's very hard for many in this region as this is a period of not only intense heat but also when we get our rains and plants and trees and livestock enjoy the rains. Cisterns are dry and wells getting increasingly more brackish. lets hope for a change soon.
rain.for.p.ricos.breadbasket//http://radar.weather. gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111 &loop=no
Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



"Let's eat Grandma!"
"Let's eat, Grandma!"

In the English language, punctuation saves lives and prevents cannibalism.
I would suggest to the average american, that there are other languages besides English in the world, in the Caribbean we speak dozens of them. In my case English is not even my second, but my third. So don't be so sensible, and appreciate the effort done for many here to write their views, opinions, insights about weather in English. It's also a good idea for americans to learn other languages besides English. My experience is that most from the so call "majority" only speak English. While the rest of the world are ahead of you.
Quoting 194. TCweatherman:

Hey sar, it was terrible yesterday. Did you get anything?
Terrible in terms of storms? If so, I got nada, zilch, nothing. If you mean heat, then it was pretty terrible, and will be even worse the next couple of days, with far fewer storms to help things out.
Oh GFS, it's not even Halloween yet.

Quoting 192. hurricanes2018:

lets see what happern whenn the new tropical wave hit the water later in the Eastern Atlantic
i went "Poofff"...
Quoting 192. hurricanes2018:

lets see what happern whenn the new tropical wave hit the water later in the Eastern Atlantic
It went "Poofff"...
Quoting 205. HuracanTaino:

I would suggest to the average american, that there are other languages besides English in the world, in the Caribbean we speak dozens of them. In my case English is not even my second, but my third. So don't be so sensible, and appreciate the effort done for many here to write their views, opinions, insights about weather in English. It's also a good idea for americans to learn other languages besides English. My experience is that most from the so call "majority" only speak English. While the rest of the world are ahead of you.
I wouldn't argue that learning a second or even third language is a bad thing. I would argue that English is now the second language of the world. The number of native English speakers are either third or second in the world in terms of total world numbers, depending on how you define the multiple dialects of Chinese and Hindi. The number of people in the world that use English as a first or second language is estimated at about 1.4 billion, making it the most commonly spoken and understood language in the world. English has now taken on the role that fell to the German language at the turn of the 20th century as the scientific and business language of the world.
Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



"Let's eat Grandma!"
"Let's eat, Grandma!"

In the English language, punctuation saves lives and prevents cannibalism.

3 Genuine cases of teaching some basic English to local school teachers here in Spain.

Me, "I'll call you 'back' later." Reply. "Why would you need to change my name to back?"
Me, "I'll give you a 'ring' later," Reply. "No! you must not do that my husband will be angry!"
Me, "We will go outside and discuss things in the street." Reply, "Have you gone crazy its 3pm in August, nobody goes outside at 3pm in August."

Meanwhile the Spanish news showed some amazing photos of flood damage in Taiwan and there were interviews with people who said they had never experienced rain in a typhoon like the one yesterday.
Quoting 199. Bucsboltsfan:



I...don't..see..that...happening
I was kind of hoping we'd heard the last of this ex-94L nonsense considering what's left isn't a low now and isn't even a part of what used to be 94L. I guess this fixation on ex-94L just shows how desperate some are for the need to track something...anything....during hurricane season.
The Warmer wetter atmosphere we have terra formed is now striking back in ernest.

Quoting 207. CybrTeddy:

Oh GFS, it's not even Halloween yet.


that storm is to far to the north
On this date in 1928, the Fort Pierce hurricane made landfall with winds of 105 mph. causing Lake Okeechobee to rise 2 ft. and a max rainfall of 14.5" in St. Cloud. There was major damage to the citrus crop.



Took a similar path to Hurricane Erin (1995) and Hurricane Frances (2004).



Link
Orleans Parish

Heat Advisory

Statement as of 3:52 AM CDT on August 08, 2015

... Heat advisory remains in effect from 10 am this morning to
7 PM CDT Sunday...

* temperature... high temperatures will be in the mid and upper 90s
over all of the area with some areas reaching or exceeding the
100 degree mark today through Monday.

* Heat index... heat index values of 108 to 112 degrees are
expected today... and a few degrees hotter on Sunday. An
excessive heat warning may be necessary for some areas Sunday.
Additionally... the advisory will likely need to be extended to
include Monday.

* Impacts... increased risk of heat related illnesses including
heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.
Quoting 188. PlazaRed:


The above link shows the effects of a vast amount of rain over steep sided mountain.
What has to be remembered is that this video is of only one probably small stream in a large area. The houses in the video indicate that there is normally no water in the immediate area and there is even a swimming pool about to be engulfed.
Now if we multiply this scene by hundreds of places and then extrapolate it to the resultant rivers the big picture starts to emerge, (or become submerged as the case may be!)

WE were talking last night on here about Taiwan being used to typhoons and well prepared. Looking at these types of images it immediately makes me think that if they have storms like this regularly in the country on this scale they would not be building villages and swimming pools in the potential paths of storm waters!
This is in my opinion all part of the new era of tropical storms with rainfalls of maybe over 30 inches and if you get that on steep sided mountains then there will only be one result; catastrophe.
Wind speeds are in a lot of cases already taken into the equation with shelters but if you are sheltering from a 140 MPH hurricane and a flash flood washes your shelter away, you are still just as dead!
4% more atmospheric moisture for every degree 1/C temp rise.

The people in Taiwan who live on the mountains live a pretty precarious lifestyle. Mudslides are a very common thing and if you ever drive through the mountains, you'll see slopes that have just collapsed into the valley below. Very often, it also takes out the roads too but they're fixed pretty fast, withing a few days on the main roads. The people who farm in the mountains do so in the river valleys of then right next to the river. These fields are washed away by the typhoons so the crops are always harvested in advance.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While some
development of this system is still possible, it is becoming more
likely that it will reach cooler water and encounter unfavorable
upper-level winds before becoming a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 197. JRRP:

may be ghost storm but 3 models are forecasting low pressure near CV



Oh, I don't doubt there might be a low either right on or near the African coast at 240 hours. The real key is what to those three models show at 60 hours. The GFS shows nothing. The ECMWF still shows a low sitting off the coast of Africa. The CMC shows what looks like a broad trough of 1015 mb low pressure in the mid-Atlantic. Given that, I'd be inclined to vote for ghost storm right now. :-)
what is a ghost storm??
The average primary window for long track systems is from Aug 20th- Oct 1st.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

...HILDA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 142.2W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.2 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKENING TREND FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE OF HILDA HAD BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC
TIME...WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE
CENTER AT TIMES. THIS LED TO DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PHFO/SAB/PGTW THAT RANGED BETWEEN 5.0/90 KT AND 5.5/102 KT.
THE ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE EYE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND COOLING EYE WALL TEMPERATURES...SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 100 KT...WHICH MAKES HILDA A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY ACCOMPANIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HILDA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH A FURTHER
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HILDA REACHES AND THEN
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA
IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...CLOSELY FOLLOWS A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE IN
THE EARLIER PERIODS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS IN THE
LATER PERIODS WHEN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BEGINS TO INCREASE
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INTENSITIES.

A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND THE
HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS
HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ONCE HILDA
MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...IT/S CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPROMISED AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NORTH
OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KT MONDAY
MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO OVER 50 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND
FORECASTS DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. THUS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO
COMMENCE THEREAFTER...AND RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
IN FORECAST WEAKENING THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE ON DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.6N 142.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.2N 143.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.0N 145.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.0N 147.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.9N 148.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 18.7N 150.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 21.0N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
Quoting 211. PlazaRed:


3 Genuine cases of teaching some basic English to local school teachers here in Spain.

Me, "I'll call you 'back' later." Reply. "Why would you need to change my name to back?"
Me, "I'll give you a 'ring' later," Reply. "No! you must not do that my husband will be angry!"
Me, "We will go outside and discuss things in the street." Reply, "Have you gone crazy its 3pm in August, nobody goes outside at 3pm in August."

Meanwhile the Spanish news showed some amazing photos of flood damage in Taiwan and there were interviews with people who said they had never experienced rain in a typhoon like the one yesterday.



reminds me of an old book...nosey miss pandora "did u see what i said"
I'm impressed that nobody post this...Hurricane Hilda becomes the 4th major hurricane of season:

Beautiful small eye.






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 13:31:39 N Lon : 142:03:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees
Gee, storms moving into Tampa Bay from the north in the late morning. Now that's normal...... Haven't seen a traditional 5:00 sea breeze thunderstorm in a month.
You guys want a new blog. As soon as I post something; there it is.


Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 011
Issued at 500 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
Location: 13.6N 142.2W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 115 MPH...185 KM/H
Present movement: W or 280 degrees AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:

Gee, storms moving into Tampa Bay from the north in the late morning. Now that's normal...... Haven't seen a traditional 5:00 sea breeze thunderstorm in a month.


yeah, yesterday local mets were saying this wouldn't be a big deal. Passing shower. Now heavy rain for hours in areas that can't handle it. probably won't be more than 2" but it's in areas that can't handle it after last week. Complete whiff on the forecast in my opinion.
Quoting 228. Grothar:

You guys want a new blog. As soon as I post something; there it is.

Hey Gro. I somehow doubt it, quoting the entry: "Jeff Masters will be back on deck next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone! Bob Henson". Looks like B.H. left the house and J.M. will only come in on Monday. So we're left alone and can throw a party, unattended. :-)
Quoting 221. hurricanes2018:

what is a ghost storm??



It's where the models (gfs especially) predict a tropical system a week or so out and when that day comes nothing happens. They usually happen because of convective feedback.
Soudelor is now overland Fujian Province in southeastern China..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #78
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
0:00 AM JST August 9 2015
=========================
Overland Southern China

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (970 hPa) located at 25.0N 118.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 28.2N 116.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
Quoting 231. barbamz:


Hey Gro. I somehow doubt it, quoting the entry: "Jeff Masters will be back on deck next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone! Bob Henson". Looks like B.H. left the house and J.M. will only come in on Monday. So we're left alone and can throw a party, unattended. :-)
Who's getting the Doritos chips?
235. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081447Z - 081715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A BROKEN BAND OF
STORMS ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40-50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 1435Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH STORMS
ALSO EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL FL /FROM HERNANDO TO
VOLUSIA COUNTIES/. THE EQUATORWARD ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE STORMS
OVER THE FL PENINSULA WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING
FRONT...WHICH TRAILED FROM AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL IS DESTABILIZING GIVEN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW
AROUND 2 INCHES PER 12Z TBW SOUNDING/. FURTHER DIABATIC HEATING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE EXPECTED TO SURPASS 2500 J PER KG WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE
NEAR 90 F/. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WET-MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BULK SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND THE HAIL THREAT.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015
It appears that the storm activity is going to stay to the south of Orlando today, despite a healthy 50% chance of rain (unless storms fire to the north and northwest at some point this afternoon). We could actually use a good downpour, as it has been pretty dry here this week.
Quoting 230. BobinTampa:



yeah, yesterday local mets were saying this wouldn't be a big deal. Passing shower. Now heavy rain for hours in areas that can't handle it. probably won't be more than 2" but it's in areas that can't handle it after last week. Complete whiff on the forecast in my opinion.


Send it to the Orlando area. Wish we could get rid of the fronts and lows and get into a normal pattern for a change.
94l helping in spirit.

Quoting 228. Grothar:

You guys want a new blog. As soon as I post something; there it is.
  Morning Gro, afternoon to you, didn't work this time, yet....
Here at the house in south Fort Myers, I've only picked up 1.21" of rain in the past 7 days. It's been basically hot and sunny everyday. But I see in the forecast that there is an increasing chance of thunderstorms. I need some rain down here just to keep my yard happy. I'm already getting some yellow dead spots in the yard where the automatic sprinkler is missing.
Quoting 230. BobinTampa:



yeah, yesterday local mets were saying this wouldn't be a big deal. Passing shower. Now heavy rain for hours in areas that can't handle it. probably won't be more than 2" but it's in areas that can't handle it after last week. Complete whiff on the forecast in my opinion.


Don't complain


Quoting 241. PedleyCA:


  Morning Gro, afternoon to you, didn't work this time, yet....



They're baiting me. :)

Quoting 244. Grothar:



They're baiting me. :)
   I see it is nice and RED out your way...


Typhoon Soudelor conditions in Fuxing, Taoyuan, Taiwan | 08 08 2015
Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



"Let's eat Grandma!"
"Let's eat, Grandma!"

In the English language, punctuation saves lives and prevents cannibalism.


a woman without her man is nothing

a woman, without her, man is nothing.

a woman without her man, is nothing.
Quoting 215. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date in 1928, the Fort Pierce hurricane made landfall with winds of 105 mph. causing Lake Okeechobee to rise 2 ft. and a max rainfall of 14.5" in St. Cloud. There was major damage to the citrus crop.



Took a similar path to Hurricane Erin (1995) and Hurricane Frances (2004).



Link

Quoting 201. Xyrus2000:



Oh don't mind him. Every now and then he pipes up with something crazy but most of the time he sits quietly in the corner eating crayons and checkers. :P
Also the precursor of the Okeechobee Hurricane which hit a few weeks later. 2 years and one week earlier the Great Nassau Hurricane did severe damage to New Providence. While there are similarities to Jeanne, this storm tracked further west, then made a sharper right turn as it neared Florida. This was 1 of 5 hurricanes to impact The Bahamas between 1926 and 1929.
249. MahFL
The tropical floaters stopped updating, any one know why ?
SPAIN - NEW RECORD HOTTEST MONTH: July 2015 is the record all-time hottest calendar month in Spain, with an average day / night temperature of 26.5 C / 79.7 F. The previous record holder was August 2003, with an average day / night temperature of 26.2 C / 79.2 F.

Link
Quoting 231. barbamz:


Hey Gro. I somehow doubt it, quoting the entry: "Jeff Masters will be back on deck next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone! Bob Henson". Looks like B.H. left the house and J.M. will only come in on Monday. So we're left alone and can throw a party, unattended. :-)
I gotta bottle of Ole Nassau Gold to contribute.... :-)
Quoting 250. DCSwithunderscores:

SPAIN - NEW RECORD HOTTEST MONTH: July 2015 is the record all-time hottest calendar month in Spain, with an average day / night temperature of 26.5 C / 79.7 F. The previous record holder was August 2003, with an average day / night temperature of 26.2 C / 79.2 F.

Link


I have many friends that live in different areas of Europe, and they have been miserable this summer. They don't have any air conditioners in their homes, because they are rarely needed during the summer. Every time I chat with them online, they tell me they can't handle the heat.
Punctuation and word placement mean everything....

Dear Aunt Agatha,

Sorry it has taken me so long to write telling you how much I liked your Christmas present this year, only I didn't have the time. To take it back and get another would be out of the question! I suppose for you to be so kind shouldn't come as a surprise after what you bought me last year. It was splendid! News about Uncle Brian? Dying to see you again in the New Year. Would be awful to lose touch.

Mark
=================================
Dear Aunt Agatha,

Sorry it has taken me so long to write telling you how much I liked your Christmas present this year, only I didn't. Have the time to take it back and get another? Would be out of the question, I suppose, for you to be so kind. Shouldn't come as a surprise after what you bought me last year. It was splendid news about Uncle Brian dying. To see you again in the New Year would be awful.

To lose touch,

Mark
Quoting 251. BahaHurican:

I gotta bottle of Ole Nassau Gold to contribute.... :-)

Okay, I'll contribute some music:


If it should become a hurricane party we should invite pretty Hilda, living in the central Pacific, though. Hope she can make it into the Atlantic in time ... No other choice right now, (un-)fortunately, lol.
20150808 | 1730 | C-PAC | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 13.6 | 142.7 | 935 (mb) | 127 (kt) | 10E | HILDA | 1 | JV



Link
Quoting 249. MahFL:

The tropical floaters stopped updating, any one know why ?


*Topic:* MTSAT-II Data Outage. **

*Date/Time Issued**:*August 08, 2015 0250 UTC

*Product(s) or Data Impacted*:MTSAT data

*Date/Time of Initial Impact*:August 08, 2015 0032 UTC

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD

*Length of Event:***TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change:***** ESPC has not received MTSAT-II data
since approximately 2332 UTC . ESPC has contacted personnel to
investigate this problem.

I would suggest to the average american, that there are other languages besides English in the world,

I agree. Even English has not always been the same: "Trvsty seldom to their frendys vniust" comes from a medieval punctuation poem. (Put the comma where you like-- "Trusty seldom to their friends unjust")
We cannot discuss climate change around the world (pro or con) if we can't speak both the language (vocabulary) and the language (culture).
Quoting 215. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date in 1928, the Fort Pierce hurricane made landfall with winds of 105 mph. causing Lake Okeechobee to rise 2 ft. and a max rainfall of 14.5" in St. Cloud. There was major damage to the citrus crop.



Took a similar path to Hurricane Erin (1995) and Hurricane Frances (2004).



Link



I have often wondered what effect this hurricane had on the hydrology as a whole, and the severity of the event a month later as a focus. It is near certain that the levels in the lake, and across the northern natural watershed were raised, and flowing southward a month later. This Ft. Pierce storm as you called it was moving at 6 mph or so, and came ashore cat 2. The way the hydrology worked back then, it took months for a drop of water at Shingle Creek, headwaters of the Florida everglades near Orlando, to reach Okeechobee lake. The great lens of water this storm dumped on, and across the Kissimmee River valley would have been near max flow into Okeechobee as the September 16-17, 1928 Okeechobee hurricane arrived and started pushing water. It isn't much talked about, but the 9.16-17 cane also storm surged the north end after the cane passed, as well as the southern glades end where the great majority of lives were lost.
Quoting 244. Grothar:



They're baiting me. :)


I'm confused.. I knew you were in charge of blobs.. but blogs now too???? How do you find the time between the naps?
I have to go, folks. In case you wonder whether I've got the rain I've wished for in post #185: of course not! The French chose to keep it within their borders and just sent some clouds and a little wind. At least, it's a bit cooler now in my place near Frankfurt and I can open the windows.

As predicted, it has been very hot today especially east of us, f.e. in Poland. Translation with the help of google from here:
Wroclaw broke the heat record! On Saturday, August 8, at 3:17 p.m. professional thermometers at the observatory of the University of Wroclaw showed 38.2 degrees Celsius (100.76F). It's the warmest day in the history of Wroclaw! The previous record was set July 31, 1994 - then in the same observatory thermometer showed 37.9 degrees Celsius. It should be stressed, however, that it is automatic measurement, so today's record requires official confirmation. That we can expect at the latest on Sunday morning.

I guess this record applies just to the city of Wrozlaw and not to the whole country (it's a bit difficult with the former borders of Poland anyway due to history).


Top temps today in central/eastern Europe.

Enjoy your afternoon!
Tropical Atlantic is pretty clean.So many boring days are ahead .Sad days wishcasters.
The weather station data on this site has Bratislava reaching 38C today, which I think is a degree off the record high for the country. The official high could be a degree or two either side of that, and the Hungarian border may well have been hotter, though I think a rogue storm passed through that region. No break in the forecast 35C+ temperatures until the weekend, when it might 'cool' to 32-33C - from Sunday the heat weather warnings are raised to the highest level.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized since
yesterday. However, while some development of this system is still
possible during the next day or two, it is more likely that it will
reach cooler water and encounter unfavorable upper-level winds
before becoming a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 243. Grothar:



Don't complain





Watering as we speak here in the Orlando area. Granted, it was my choice to create a tropical garden full of water demanding plants, but it is the middle of the rainy season and a normal rainy pattern does not necessitate me irrigating. SE FL is in the midst of a substantial drought. A lot of FL is at least a bit drier than normal.
Hilda up to 120 knots as of 18z per the latest SHIPS text.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS
V (KT) LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 120 124 122 116 110 95 80 65 52 42 34 28 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

Quoting 265. CybrTeddy:

Hilda up to 120 knots as of 18z per the latest SHIPS text.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS
V (KT) LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 120 124 122 116 110 95 80 65 52 42 34 28 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP




Also moving well south of its next forecast point. If that continues, could be a more serious threat to Hawaii than currently forecast.
The temperature in South Brazil reach more than 37ºC. August 8th 2015 is the hottest day ever recorded on August here!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (1513)
3:00 AM JST August 9 2015
=========================
Overland Southern China

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Soudelor (980 hPa) located at 25.0N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 28.8N 116.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
48 HRS: 31.3N 117.1E- Tropical Depression Overland Central China

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (1514)
3:00 AM JST August 9 2015
=========================
About 90 KM West of Chichi-jima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (990 hPa) located at 27.1N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 29.2N 140.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) northwest of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 31.1N 141.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) southeast of Hachijo Island
72 HRS: 32.9N 146.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Japan
270. txjac


Possibly a cool down and some rain for the Houston area next weekend.
We need it badly ...it's scorching hot here.
Back up to 4 storms in the Pacific basin now, as 93E has just surfaced.

272. vis0
image host
Quoting 264. HurrMichaelOrl:



Watering as we speak here in the Orlando area. Granted, it was my choice to create a tropical garden full of water demanding plants, but it is the middle of the rainy season and a normal rainy pattern does not necessitate me irrigating. SE FL is in the midst of a substantial drought. A lot of FL is at least a bit drier than normal.


We are getting a little worried here. When the county asks if we want another bus line or a herd of camels, I get a little worried.
i wonder how 1961 would be if there was hurricanes in august of that year
279. vis0
Quoting 210. sar2401:

I wouldn't argue that learning a second or even third language is a bad thing. I would argue that English is now the second language of the world. The number of native English speakers are either third or second in the world in terms of total world numbers, depending on how you define the multiple dialects of Chinese and Hindi. The number of people in the world that use English as a first or second language is estimated at about 1.4 billion, making it the most commonly spoken and understood language in the world. English has now taken on the role that fell to the German language at the turn of the 20th century as the scientific and business language of the world.
Yo argue ότι den mas belangrijk language to imparare be it il promer o das Letzte is mathematics. -vis0
Quoting 254. barbamz:


Okay, I'll contribute some music:


If it should become a hurricane party we should invite pretty Hilda, living in the central Pacific, though. Hope she can make it into the Atlantic in time ... No other choice right now, (un-)fortunately, lol.


Just got back in the house. Did I miss anything? :-) New post coming later this evening...

Bob
281. vis0
Quoting 228. Grothar:

You guys want a new blog. As soon as I post something; there it is.
...
Hilda now a Cat 4.
Quoting 282. BayFog:

Hilda now a Cat 4.
And the beat goes on ....
Hurricane Hilda is the strongest hurricane in Central Pacific since Hurricane Flossie 2007.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Looks near annular to me.






Go Hilda be a monster. #John #Ioke Parte 2?! It's nearly super el niño guys.
Quoting 280. BobHenson:



Just got back in the house. Did I miss anything? :-) New post coming later this evening...

Bob



you missed my psot from last night

post 116

6:14 PM PDT on August 07, 2015
0 +
bob needs too update is blog has TS hilda is now a hurricane and closeing in on a major hurricane in his blog part be low it says that TS hilda will be come a hurricane over the weekend well so march for that idea lol

wounder if bob is still around too where he can see my commit

Elsewhere in the tropics
Although there are no immediate threats on the scale of Soudelor, the Pacific remains active. Tropical Depression Molave, well east of Soudelor, should recurve before threatening Japan and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength. In the Northeast Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilda could reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it move west-northwest over open water. Hilda could approach Hawaii by later next week, although track models continue to diverge on Hilda’s ultimate trajectory, so it is far too soon to know if any real threat will emerge. On the heels of Hilda is Invest 93E, which appears to have little chance of major development on its westward track.
Quoting 284. pablosyn:

Hurricane Hilda is the strongest hurricane in Central Pacific since Hurricane Flossie 2007.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Looks near annular to me.






Go Hilda be a monster. #John #Ioke Parte 2?! It's nearly super el niño guys.



it olny has winds of 140 so not the strongest hurricane yet
Quoting 286. Tazmanian:




it olny has winds of 140 so not the strongest hurricane yet


In Central Pacific is. Genevieve reached 135 mph - 950 mbar in C. Pacific and Neki in 2009 had 125 mph.
Quoting 284. pablosyn:

Hurricane Hilda is the strongest hurricane in Central Pacific since Hurricane Flossie 2007.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Looks near annular to me.






Go Hilda be a monster. #John #Ioke Parte 2?! It's nearly super el nio guys.


It looks like it's transitioning to an Annular hurricane, the rainbands are starting to disappear.
Anyhow it's probably not going to be a long lived cyclone like John or Ioke were because there is ~40kt shear in it's path, which is why it's forecast to rapidly weaken.
Quoting 288. Articuno:



It looks like it's transitioning to an Annular hurricane, the rainbands are starting to disappear.


So...if the eye be clear...maybe 135 kts. Amanda part 2 in C. Pacific this time hahahaha....
Hurricane Hilda
Hardly heading hastily
hemming Hawaii.
Although not mentioned much on this blog the European heat plan marches on unchecked into next week.
This map is for noon Monday. The middle east is keeping itself at almost unimaginable levels.

Quoting 213. Patrap:

The Warmer wetter atmosphere we have terra formed is now striking back in ernest.


At least in the WPac...
Quoting 280. BobHenson:
Just got back in the house. Did I miss anything? :-) New post coming later this evening...
Bob

"UUUH, OHHH, daddy, you're already back in da house??? Well, this is a little suprise ... We just thought that .... Never mind ... and no, you didn't miss anything, we well-behaved ..."
(*swallowing the last Doritos, scrambling to hide BahaHurican's booze, pushing special guest pretty Hilda into the closet, deleting some naughty posts about the current Atlantic hurricane season and the European heatwave*)
"... what is it you gonna tell us? We're eager to listen ..."

:-))) In my case it'll be tomorrow though. Good night for good now!
Quoting 260. barbamz:

I have to go, folks. In case you wonder whether I've got the rain I've wished for in post #185: of course not! The French chose to keep it within their borders and just sent some clouds and a little wind. At least, it's a bit cooler now in my place near Frankfurt and I can open the windows.

As predicted, it has been very hot today especially east of us, f.e. in Poland. Translation with the help of google from here:
Wroclaw broke the heat record! On Saturday, August 8, at 3:17 p.m. professional thermometers at the observatory of the University of Wroclaw showed 38.2 degrees Celsius (100.76F). It's the warmest day in the history of Wroclaw! The previous record was set July 31, 1994 - then in the same observatory thermometer showed 37.9 degrees Celsius. It should be stressed, however, that it is automatic measurement, so today's record requires official confirmation. That we can expect at the latest on Sunday morning.

I guess this record applies just to the city of Wrozlaw and not to the whole country (it's a bit difficult with the former borders of Poland anyway due to history).


Top temps today in central/eastern Europe.

Enjoy your afternoon!


The temperature at the University of Wroclaw observatory reportedly reached 38.9 C / 102.0 F later on August 8.

Link
looks like Guillermo is trying too make a come back
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

...POWERFUL HURRICANE HILDA TRACKING WESTWARD FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 143.5W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST. HILDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$


wow
08/1730 UTC 13.6N 142.7W T6.5/6.5 HILDA -- Central Pacific


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 13:38:00 N Lon : 143:20:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.7mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EYE


looks like are hurricane is makeing run for cat 5 so am thinking the next update we could be looking at 155 to 160 mph storm
Hurricane HILDA is a cat 4 hurricane now!
Hilda may end up being a triple-crosser per the ECMWF.

Quoting 295. Tazmanian:

looks like Guillermo is trying too make a come back


keyword trying



Hilda looks really symmetrical.
You ain't lying! Finally broke down and watered the brown grass and cracked ground. Amazing how you can get so much water then it all go to poo poo in weeks...



Quoting 270. txjac:



Possibly a cool down and some rain for the Houston area next weekend.
We need it badly ...it's scorching hot here.
Hurricane Hilda

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 13:40:00 N Lon : 143:33:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 946.4mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.8 degrees





Quoting 264. HurrMichaelOrl:



Watering as we speak here in the Orlando area. Granted, it was my choice to create a tropical garden full of water demanding plants, but it is the middle of the rainy season and a normal rainy pattern does not necessitate me irrigating. SE FL is in the midst of a substantial drought. A lot of FL is at least a bit drier than normal.


Well, based on surface area, the regions with below average rain are actually minorities, the majority of surface area is either near average (that being slightly below or slightly above) or above average. So I'm not sure if quantifying a lot of Florida as being below average is appropriate. Orlando isn't in a drought, so it's fine. Meteorology varies from year to year. Just be glad we live in an area that has climatological monthly precip of 7-9 inches for 4 months. Most places in the U.S. have climatological averages that never reach any where near those values. Really mainly from far SE TX east into FL and up the Carolina Coast and portions of the Pacific Northwest, as well as portions of orographic lift in the Appalacians are the only areas with 6 inch per month averages. Even a drier than average month in the rainy season, at say 4-5 inches, is a wet month in most regions.


But like I said, an average is an average, if the average is 7-8 inches, there have to be years of less to balance it out.

Seems as though west coast FL areas including this area have been an increase in setting monthly rainfall records during the rainy season over the past several years. Maybe it's due to this strong east coast trough. But I don't know for sure, not enough data to verify.
Quoting 305. Jedkins01:



Well, based on surface area, the regions with below average rain are actually minorities, the majority of surface area is either near average (that being slightly below or slightly above) or above average. So I'm not sure if quantifying a lot of Florida as being below average is appropriate. Orlando isn't in a drought, so it's fine. Meteorology varies from year to year. Just be glad we live in an area that has climatological monthly precip of 7-9 inches for 4 months. Most places in the U.S. have climatological averages that never reach any where near those values. Really mainly New Orleans east into FL and up the Carolina Coast and the portions of the Pacific Northwest are the only areas with 6+ inch per month averages. Even a drier than average month in the rainy season, at say 4-5 inches, is a wet month in most regions.


But like I said, an average is an average, if the average is 7-8 inches, there have to be years of less to balance it out.

Seems as though west coast FL areas including this area have been an increase in setting monthly rainfall records during the rainy season over the past several years. Maybe it's due to this strong east coast trough. But I don't know for sure, not enough data to verify.


Jedkins, when do you think was the last time we had a 5:00 sea breeze driven thunderstorm? I'm thinking close to 4 weeks.
Check out how the low wind shear follows Hilda. Perhaps the models missed this?

How many storms so far this season have had pinhole eyes? Seems like I've been reading that phrase a lot of late ....
000
FXUS62 KTBW 081316
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
916 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH IS NEARING THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW
2.04") ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY...WHICH COULD
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH THE
STORMS MOVING AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP...OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...A MODEST MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION
TO THE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSRA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR
NOW...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH NEARING THE FL/GA BORDERS THIS MORNING COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AND THE HILLSBOROUGH
RIVER AT MORRIS BRIDGE HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS TODAY WHICH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RIVER LEVELS
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER THESE BASINS. IN ADDITION ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS...BUT WITH THE STORMS MOVING AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR/DATA COLLECTION...74/WYNN/JONES
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



It was fun being named in the NWS discussion today.
247. indianrivguy
5:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2015

and the other way around
Quoting 306. Bucsboltsfan:



Jedkins, when do you think was the last time we had a 5:00 sea breeze driven thunderstorm? I'm thinking close to 4 weeks.


Yeah I don't remember the last time, but it's been a while lol. I'm thinking probably early July, based on looking at rainfall reports and past upper air patterns. So yeah, about 4 weeks or so!


Btw, I know it may seem too weird for that to be the case, but remember that climate is an average, and that we can and do get patterns the deviate from the 5 PM thunderstorm activity. Also keep in mind that the climate is changing too. Whether or not these torrential rain events on the west coast is something we'll see more of in the future is uncertain. However, it has been more common over the past 5 years compared to the 30 year average, and west coast rainy season records have been set more frequently in the past 10-20 years. However, again, we don't want to jump to conclusions. We need more proof, but it's just something interesting to take not of.

We need to always be careful when making claims of evidence in science, and meteorology is definitely a science that applies to that general thinking. Limited evidence and anecdotal experiences can lead to runaway conclusions and excitement quickly.
313. beell
@310 WOOHOO, Jed!!!!
Awesome in every sense of the word.
Quoting 295. Tazmanian:

looks like Guillermo is trying too make a come back
Following the shining example of 94L?
Hilda peaked around 17z this afternoon (120kt is good) and has been on a slow decline since that time. What an impressive storm this has been considering it was only forecast three days ago to be a minimal hurricane at peak.

Quoting 310. Jedkins01:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 081316
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
916 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015


UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR/DATA COLLECTION...74/WYNN/JONES
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



It was fun being named in the NWS discussion today.
Cool, Jed. Were you a balloon monkey today? :-)
Heavy t-storms in MIami today. (yes, I am back in Miami)...

Boy is it HOT here... I don't remember leaving the heat on when I left...
Quoting 320. Dakster:

Heavy t-storms in MIami today. (yes, I am back in Miami)...

Boy is it HOT here... I don't remember leaving the heat on when I left...


It is August. What were you thinking? LOL
Quoting 318. Tazmanian:




you do not no that it has peaked and can still go up more in tell a new update comes out from the NHC on that storm it has not peaked

The eye has all but become obscured, core convection is slowly weakening, and the overall central dense overcast is not as symmetrical as it was a few hours ago. It's safe to say Hilda has peaked as it tracks toward cooler waters and a higher shear environment.
Quoting 308. VibrantPlanet:

Check out how the low wind shear follows Hilda. Perhaps the models missed this?


Most areas of deep low pressure create their own area of minimal shear as latent heat from condensation is released into the environment directly above the storm. This is what aids in development of these deep lows. As the center weakens, cloud tops cool, and this heat transfer slows down. All the 40 and 50 knot shear surrounding the storm then has a chance to start attacking the periphery of the storm, eventually creating a sheared environment and killing the low.
Quoting 316. CaneFreeCR:

Following the shining example of 94L?
Let's not bring that one up again. :-)
Quoting 240. Climate175:




That's a good contrast shot between the Pacific and Atlantic.
Quoting 323. sar2401:

Most areas of deep low pressure create their own area of minimal shear as latent heat from condensation is released into the environment directly above the storm. This is what aids in development of these deep lows. As the center weakens, cloud tops cool, and this heat transfer slows down. All the 40 and 50 knot shear surrounding the storm then has a chance to start attacking the periphery of the storm, eventually creating a sheared environment and killing the low.
Thanks for clarifying!  Still wondering why then Hilda intensified so much?
Quoting 320. Dakster:

Heavy t-storms in MIami today. (yes, I am back in Miami)...

Boy is it HOT here... I don't remember leaving the heat on when I left...
Hot? Down here in August?? Well, I never.....

My actual high was 101 with a high heat index of 108. I should hit 105 tomorrow with a heat index of 111-113. We're supposed to have this massive "cold" front sweep through Wednesday night, dropping me all the way down to 70 for a low, with a high of 94 on Thursday. I never thought I'd think 94 was "cooler".
Quoting 322. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The eye has all but become obscured, core convection is slowly weakening, and the overall central dense overcast is not as symmetrical as it was a few hours ago. It's safe to say Hilda has peaked as it tracks toward cooler waters and a higher shear environment.
Well, yeah, but you do not really no...you know? :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 326. VibrantPlanet:

Thanks for clarifying!  Still wondering why then she intensified so much?
You're welcome. One of the reasons for intensification is that the storm hit warmer waters, which caused more of that latent heat transfer, which helped to wall the storm off from the shear and the attendant drier air. Watch Hilda over the next couple of days. You'll see that 5 knot shear start to disappear, to be replaced by the higher shear from the surrounding environment. Having a deep low in a surrounding high shear environment is one of the things to look for in terms of how much and how fast it will weaken once it stops intensifying.
Quoting 264. HurrMichaelOrl:



Watering as we speak here in the Orlando area. Granted, it was my choice to create a tropical garden full of water demanding plants, but it is the middle of the rainy season and a normal rainy pattern does not necessitate me irrigating. SE FL is in the midst of a substantial drought. A lot of FL is at least a bit drier than normal.

Im right there with you HurrMichaelOrl, has been a drier than normal summer here in Sanford by Lake Jesup. Its like a broken record lately where all the convection from north and west fizzles as it gets near here and/or storms form west of here, move in my direction and then fizzle by me but stay together north and south. I simply don't get it
Quoting 320. Dakster:

Heavy t-storms in MIami today. (yes, I am back in Miami)...

Boy is it HOT here... I don't remember leaving the heat on when I left...
Is your AK year done already?
We barely touched 90F today with lower humidity and it felt "fall-like". Heck, I will bottom out in the upper 60's toward daybreak. Break out the light jacket.

Hope you get that relief. I like heat, but I'm looking forward to more days like today.



Quoting 327. sar2401:

Hot? Down here in August?? Well, I never.....

My actual high was 101 with a high heat index of 108. I should hit 105 tomorrow with a heat index of 111-113. We're supposed to have this massive "cold" front sweep through Wednesday night, dropping me all the way down to 70 for a low, with a high of 94 on Thursday. I never thought I'd think 94 was "cooler".
Quoting 333. BahaHurican:

Is your AK year done already?


Hard to believe, but yes...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.