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Solar impacts on hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:36 PM GMT on May 13, 2010

I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. This is the premier scientific conference on hurricanes, and is held only once every two years, so pretty much all of the world's greatest hurricane experts are here. One of the more intriguing posters presented at Tuesday's poster session was titled, Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes, by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University. They showed that the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the U.S. during a hurricane season with warmer than average sea surface temperatures increases dramatically during minima in the 11-year sunspot cycle. The odds increase from 20% to 40% for years when the sunspot activity is in the lower 25% of the sunspot cycle, compared to years in the upper 25% of the cycle. Near the peak of the sunspot cycle, the odds of at least one hurricane hitting the U.S. are just 25%, but at solar minimum, the odds increase sharply to 64%. The authors studied the period 1851 - 2008, and controlled for other variables such as changes in sea surface temperature and El Niño. Such a large impact of the sun on hurricanes might seem surprising, given that the change in solar energy at all light wavelengths is only about 0.1%. This relatively small change causes just a 0.1°C change in Earth's mean surface temperature between the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle (high solar activity) and the minimum of the sunspot cycle (where we are now.) However, variation in radiation between extrema of the solar cycle can be 10% or more in portions of the UV range (Elsner et al., 2008.) The strong change in UV light causes globally averaged temperature swings in the lower stratosphere of 0.4°C between the minimum and maximum of the sunspot cycle--four times as great as the difference measured at Earth's surface (Lean, 2009). This sensitivity of the stratosphere to UV light is due to the fact the ozone layer is located in the stratosphere. Ozone absorbs a large amount of UV light, causing the stratosphere to heat up when solar activity is high. The authors speculate that a warmer stratosphere then heats up the upper troposphere, making the atmosphere more stable. An unstable atmosphere--with hot temperatures at the surface and cold conditions in the upper troposphere--are conducive for stronger hurricanes. Thus, we would expect to see reductions in hurricanes during the peak of the sunspot cycle.

Previous research
The findings presented at this week's conference build upon earlier work published by Elsner et al. (2008) and Elsner et al. (2010). The first of these studies found that for every 100 extra sunspots in September, the temperature of the atmosphere at 16 km altitude over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico increased by about 0.5°C, and the number of hurricanes in this region was reduced by 26%. Interestingly, a reduction of hurricanes over the eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa was not observed during solar maxima, which the authors attributed to the fact that hurricanes in this region are limited by sea surface temperature, not instability. Solar maximum brings a small increase in sea surface temperature to the globe, aiding hurricane development in regions where sea surface temperature is the limiting factor. The second of these studies (Elsner et al., 2010) computed that for a Category 2 hurricane affecting the U.S. during the most active 30% range of the solar cycle, the resultant heating of the upper troposphere would cause a 19% decrease in the stability, lowering the hurricane's winds by 10% (10 mph.) Stronger hurricanes would be affected even more, with a potential wind speed reduction of 23 mph for the most powerful hurricanes. The 27-day rotation period of the sun causes a change in UV light even larger than the change observed during the 11-year sunspot cycle, so perhaps we should be monitoring the phase of the sun's rotation to look for more favorable periods for hurricane formation.

Commentary
Considering that this year we are at the deepest solar minimum in more than a century, this research gives us yet another reason to expect a severe Atlantic hurricane season this year. My next post, which may not be until Monday, I'll discuss the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane main development region, which set an all-time record last month for the warmest monthly anomaly for the 100+ years we have records. Also, El Niño now appears to be over, as sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold into neutral territory.

References
Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2008, United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18705, doi:10.1029/2008GL034431.

Elsner, J. B., T. H. Jagger, and R. E. Hodges, 2010, Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043091.

Lean, J.L., 2009, Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate", Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 111-122 Published Online: 22 Dec 2009

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CycloneOz:
XtremeHurricanes.com Update:

CNN and CBS News have purchased my video for hundreds of dollars.

FREE CHASE!!!! :P


Nice!
Quoting CycloneOz:
XtremeHurricanes.com Update:

CNN and CBS News have purchased my video for hundreds of dollars.

FREE CHASE!!!! :P

congrats! did they just walk up to you and offer to buy it or do you know someone?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My 2010 Hurricane Landfall Possibilities.

Blue - Slight

Green - Low

Yellow - Moderate

Red - High



Hey! What's that high probability red doing on the Georgia coast?! Hush! Speak not that possibility here ;)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Hey! What's that high probability red doing on the Georgia coast?! Hush! Speak not that possibility here ;)


I'm actually quite curious to see how much longer Georgia can avoid a major hurricane. It's been what... over a century now?
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm wondering when Barbados experienced its last hurricane condition?
Ivan???
Quoting CycloneOz:
XtremeHurricanes.com Update:

CNN and CBS News have purchased my video for hundreds of dollars.

FREE CHASE!!!! :P

Cool
1507. xcool
CycloneOz Now, rich man lmao
Quoting doabarrelroll:

congrats! did they just walk up to you and offer to buy it or do you know someone?


You guys realize I've got the secret numbers to all of the nation's newsdesks, right? :)

Since Dolly, the news networks have been patiently waiting for me to provide them with some compelling video...this one was off topic (hurricanes), but they loved it nevertheless!

I'm still up because I'm uploading the file to their servers.
Korithe, it's been since October 2, 1898. Cat 4. I did a blog series on Georgia hurricane history last year. Sometime I'll round up the entries and link them up together.

There were majors making landfall on the Georgia coast in 1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1893, and 1898. And a possible major in 1881 that killed over 700 around Savannah.
Korithe I had to get on synthman19872003 about his high probability shading on the Georgia coast too ;)
Quoting pottery:
Hey Aussie, have you recovered from your celebrations?
Well done, your team!

I'm trying to catch up on my sleep. I didn't make it to watch the match this morning, to many late night run my batteries down. I'll watch the final.


I hope your ready Chucky N. Fl could be in for some chop this season
1513. xcool



wt++++++++%$^$
Quoting CycloneOz:


You guys realize I've got the secret numbers to all of the nation's newsdesks, right? :)

Since Dolly, the news networks have been patiently waiting for me to provide them with some compelling video...this one was off topic (hurricanes), but they loved it nevertheless!

I'm still up because I'm uploading the file to their servers.


I will look for it tomm. on the networks
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Korithe, it's been since October 2, 1898. Cat 4. I did a blog series on Georgia hurricane history last year. Sometime I'll round up the entries and link them up together.

There were majors making landfall on the Georgia coast in 1804, 1812, 1824, 1854, 1893, 1898. And a possible major in 1881 that killed over 700 around Savannah.


Then there was David in 1979, which came very close to being another major hurricane landfall.
Quoting doabarrelroll:


I will look for it tomm. on the networks


CBS said they're going to offer it to The Weather Channel.

CNN said they were going to use it everywhere...even internationally.

My daughter is stoked. She has quite a FB following and apparently...I'm a champion tonight to hundreds of college kids. She's taping CNN all day tomorrow.

It's going viral...
Quoting CycloneOz:


CBS said they're going to offer it to The Weather Channel.

CNN said they were going to use it everywhere...even internationally.

My daughter is stoked. She has quite a FB following and apparently...I'm a champion tonight to hundreds of college kids. She's taping CNN all day tomorrow.

It's going viral...


Congrats!


Rick Sanchez is viral but with him its a bad thing...
Actually David may have been the deepest, (although there is evidence that the October 1947 hurricane was deeper).

Recon did measure a 969 mb pressure when it made landfall. But David was highly distorted by its long encounter with the Florida coast. In fact, no recording station in Georgia or South Carolina reported sustained hurricane force winds from David, and the ragged eye passed directly over Savannah.
1519. xcool
Wow That's good...
Hold on a sec Korithe I'm about to put my Georgia hurricane history up.
I just agreed to the terms of CNN via email. There is a mandatory font (courtesy): "XtremeHurricanes.com" has to be put on the video when they air it. Same with CBS.
Quoting chucky7777:
Quoting doabarrelroll:


I hope your ready Chucky N. Fl could be in for some chop this season
I'm ready since i follow Tropical weather so closely.The Big Bend of Florida might have been brushed by a hurricane or two, and directly affected by numerous tropical storms, but to my knowledge this area has never seen a direct hit by a cat 1 or higher hurricane landfall, not in modern times anyway, most of the strong ones have made landfalls in the Florida Panhandle westward.......
An extremely powerful hurricane made landfall just north of Cedar Key in the predawn of September 29, 1896 and traveled NE across southeast Georgia and South Carolina just inland. And very rapidly. Wind damage in Brunswick and Savannah indicate Cat 2 intensity after being overland for 200 miles. A (dubious) press report from Lake City, FL said winds there hit 150 mph.

Due to the sparse settlement of the Big Bend area in 1896, detailed accounts of the storm and its tides are lacking, but there is no doubt that an extremely powerful hurricane made landfall in the eastern Big Bend that night.
838 kingy "lets back off BP a little here guys, aspectre is right. The gulf is a big place and the oil slick is tiny in comparison. Lets get real here. kingy
930 kingy "i was being ironic not serious, honestly"

Bible thumper, "And into the Valley of Death rode the 600 Horsemen of the Apocalypse"
aspectre, "Four Horsemen. You've mixed Revelations with Charge of the Light Brigade."
kingy, "Like aspectre said, it's SantaClaus and eight tiny reindeer."

Even NOAA's probably*lowball estimate of 5,000barrels per day is more than sufficiently appalling. (* Blog1477, Comment105, Point3)

Go to the GreatCircleMapper, then copy&paste in
31n98w-13n98w, 31n80w-13n80w, 29n88w, 29n89w, 28.5n88.5w, 29.5n88.5w, 29.35n88.85w, 28.65n88.85w, 29.35n88.15w, 28.65n88.15w

The crude oil slick already covers an area nearly equivalent to a circular*degree. Or is a 3740square-mile / 9680square-kilometre KillingField too tame to excite your emotions?

* Marked on the GreatCircleMap by the last 8 coordinates posted above.
Quoting wadedanielsmith:


Ok, lets get some numbers straight, because nobody seems to be able to add.

For example, even after hearing that the spill is 70k barrels per day, the news networks are still talking about it as if its "3 or 4 exxon valdez"...why? Because they apparantly can't do 3rd grade level math.

70,000 barrels/day * 24 days * 42 gallons per barrel = 70560000 gallons,


70560000 gallons of oil!

(seventy point five million)

About SEVEN Exxon Valdez worth.


Which comes to 266,490 cubic meters.

For pressure, if the oil is at 18000 feet, then that is 2.46 miles of rock about one mile of water above the surface of the oil deposit, but the well obviously goes much farther down than just the surface. The density of rock is about 5 times greater than water, so then you can figure that barring any sort of thermal processes, the pressure is at LEAST 22,000psi.


Actually, the flow has almost certainly NOT been 70,000 bbl/day since the accident, and it is not known for sure that the flow is that high now. There was no evidence of a blowout for 2 days after the accident---no oil on the surface except for a light sheen that seems to have resulted from fuel supplies on the station itself.

Furthermore, the size of the oil slick in the first days after the blowout was discovered is not consistent with a 70,000 bbl/day flow rate. There may well have been obstructions in the pipe that were pushed out by the pressure of the oil. This has occurred in blowouts before---the flow starts off slowly or does not flow at all, and speeds up as obstructions are pushed away.

That is the reason that the flow rate was estimated at 1,000 bbl/day when it was discovered, and only after more than a week passed was it revised upwards to 5,000 bbl/day, with higher estimates bandied about more recently.

For that matter, the surface oil slick is much smaller and less thick and continuous than it would be if 70,000 bbl/day were reaching the surface. It is perhaps possible that some denser components of the oil are suspended in the sea hundreds or thousands of feet below the surface but that is not known yet.

In any event, if oil had been flowing out at 70,000 bbl/day right from the start, the oil slick would have become apparent immediately, even if the majority of it were suspended in the deep ocean.

Furthermore, while the density of the earth is 5.52 g/cm3, the core of the earth is considerably more dense, and the crust much less dense. The average density of continental crust is 2.8 g/cm3

And 18,000 feet is about 3.46 miles, not 2.46 miles.

And my original post was prompted by a video link which said the oil was coming out with pressures of 160,000-170,000 psi---at which pressure it would be flowing out at sonic speeds. Which it is not.
1528. xcool



ECMWF SHOWS very LOW/WAVE...by African
Anyone know what's going on here with these storms???



Current radar. They're not moving very fast...



There are some massive rain rates with these storms!



There's almost no CAPE in the area...



500 mb analysis. There's some divergence in the area but only light shear... There is a cold pocket however.



700 mb analysis is also showing a cold pocket aloft. Is that possibly what is driving these storms?



Fairly high PWs in the area too, although not astronomical.

I'm afraid that a large number of people in CTX are going to wake up to alot more water than they anticipated...
Is there anyone there???
I'm here 1900 :)
Sweet! I was beginning to wonder since it was an hour and a minute since the last post (which was also mine).
Hey mike, 1900.
Yeah have a couple of entries in blog series of Georgia hurricane history I can't find---looking for them.
Rich wrote all those, but over several months, have to ask him tomorrow where they are!
It looks like another disturbance is developing out in WTX and could follow the first two disturbances, bringing more flooding rains.

Yeah, and that might not be it if this pattern continues.
Double posted when I thought I was editing.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
An extremely powerful hurricane made landfall just north of Cedar Key in the predawn of September 29, 1896 and traveled NE across southeast Georgia and South Carolina just inland. And very rapidly. Wind damage in Brunswick and Savannah indicate Cat 2 intensity after being overland for 200 miles. A (dubious) press report from Lake City, FL said winds there hit 150 mph.

Due to the sparse settlement of the Big Bend area in 1896, detailed accounts of the storm and its tides are lacking, but there is no doubt that an extremely powerful hurricane made landfall in the eastern Big Bend that night.
thanks for the info,I don't consider coastal Levi county and Cedar Key to be part of the Big Bend though, it is in the extreme southeast Apalachee Bay however,which is why it is considered part of the Big Bend i guess. While extremely powerful,It was a charley sized storm,from what i could gather, very small and compact if i am not mistaken and the forward speed of this storm was Long Island Express like, it had to be moving fast due to the high wind reports so far inland, it definitely pounded Cedar key and i suspect Cedar Key was raked by the eyewall, i don't recall reading any reports or eyewitness accounts where the eye passed directly over the coastal community......
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST May 15 2010
==================================

The monsoon trough remains active to the north of the forecast area. A low pressure system may develop in the trough, near 105E on Sunday, but should be north of 10S. On Monday the system will move south of 10S and there is a moderate chance of it becoming a weak tropical cyclone, although it is not expected to affect the coast during the outlook period. The system may reach the west Kimberley coast on Wednesday, but it is not expected to be a tropical cyclone by this stage.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
1542. cg2916


Looks like our AOI died, but we might wanna watch these, see if they lighten up a bit. I still don't expect development.
1543. cg2916
The Atlantic wave's still there, I gotta give it credit!

1544. IKE
So when is the first TWO?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 15 MAY 2010.
SHOULD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF-
SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE ISSUED AS
NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC...AND AWIPS HEADER
MIATWOEP.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
1545. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
So when is the first TWO?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 15 MAY 2010.
SHOULD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF-
SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE ISSUED AS
NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC...AND AWIPS HEADER
MIATWOEP.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


In about minus 5 hours.
Quoting IKE:
So when is the first TWO


Should be coming shortly based on previous years, the first is normally the 5AM PDT one.
The latest entry in the "Man thinks he can control nature" quest. It is actually patented and for sale. Any bidders?


A experimental proposal to reduce the devastation caused by hurricanes to humans and the environment
1548. IKE
hey guys what up and take a look at this
Good morning from a windy Puerto Rico. That high pressure to our north continues to be strong tightening the pressure gradient causing the effect of cooling some the waters in parts of the MDR and Caribbean. Is the NAO positive at this time?
1552. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES
HURRICANES ARE 15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2010 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
AGATHA MADELINE
BLAS NEWTON
CELIA ORLENE
DARBY PAINE
ESTELLE ROSLYN
FRANK SEYMOUR
GEORGETTE TINA
HOWARD VIRGIL
ISIS WINIFRED
JAVIER XAVIER
KAY YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LESTER ZEKE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING THIS
YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF THE
PROBABILITY OF GENESIS FOR EACH DISTURBANCE. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF
THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE
CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 4
AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM EST.

PRIOR TO 2009...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
COULD BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
IN BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT WAS DISCONTINUED IN 2009 AND
IS NO LONGER ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN
BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER
THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE
DISCUSSION... AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN
ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME
TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

1553. P451
Good Morning.

A couple of 12HR IR Loops ending ~730AM ET



Good Morning to all

Blog Updated

Tropical Update

Tropical Weather Outlook, May 15-31

Blog Update from Yesterday

Other Modulators of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season



When are the trades going to lessen again?
1556. barbamz
Good morning from Germany!
BBC: Warning of ash flight disruption
Parts of the UK's airspace are at risk of closure from Sunday because of volcanic activity in Iceland, the Department for Transport has said.
Disruption could affect some of the UK's busiest airports in south-east England until Tuesday, it warned.

Ash advisory
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1273922700.png

Eijafjallajökull is spitting ash like crazy
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning to all

Blog Updated

Tropical Update

Tropical Weather Outlook, May 15-31

Blog Update from Yesterday

Other Modulators of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season



Thanks for the update. Very informative as always.
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
When are the trades going to lessen again?


Trades have been near normal to slightly above normal. It is isnt so much the speed of the trades but their nature. They are diverging over the waters which promotes cooling the sea surface.

This diverging pattern should lessen some over the course of the next 2 weeks.
1559. pottery
Good Morning all.
A sparkling morning here, after some decent rain yesterday.
Have to spend some time today checking gutters and drains around the place after that, and in preparation for what is threatening to be heavy stuff coming tonight and beyond. Some trees to trim as well.
The wave east of here is likely to bring heavy rain, and I think we will get a few days of that.
A great day for Sports fans- England and Australia meet in the 20/20 Final in St. Lucia. And Chelsea take on Portsmouth (?? LOL) in the FA Cup in England.
Happy East Pacific Hurricane season everyone
That blob from yesterday died but there's a new one behind it although I suspect it will just putter out like the first one
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Actually, the flow has almost certainly NOT been 70,000 bbl/day since the accident, and it is not known for sure that the flow is that high now. There was no evidence of a blowout for 2 days after the accident---no oil on the surface except for a light sheen that seems to have resulted from fuel supplies on the station itself.

Furthermore, the size of the oil slick in the first days after the blowout was discovered is not consistent with a 70,000 bbl/day flow rate. There may well have been obstructions in the pipe that were pushed out by the pressure of the oil. This has occurred in blowouts before---the flow starts off slowly or does not flow at all, and speeds up as obstructions are pushed away.

That is the reason that the flow rate was estimated at 1,000 bbl/day when it was discovered, and only after more than a week passed was it revised upwards to 5,000 bbl/day, with higher estimates bandied about more recently.

For that matter, the surface oil slick is much smaller and less thick and continuous than it would be if 70,000 bbl/day were reaching the surface. It is perhaps possible that some denser components of the oil are suspended in the sea hundreds or thousands of feet below the surface but that is not known yet.

In any event, if oil had been flowing out at 70,000 bbl/day right from the start, the oil slick would have become apparent immediately, even if the majority of it were suspended in the deep ocean.

Furthermore, while the density of the earth is 5.52 g/cm3, the core of the earth is considerably more dense, and the crust much less dense. The average density of continental crust is 2.8 g/cm3

And 18,000 feet is about 3.46 miles, not 2.46 miles.

And my original post was prompted by a video link which said the oil was coming out with pressures of 160,000-170,000 psi---at which pressure it would be flowing out at sonic speeds. Which it is not.

Thanks for keeping a touch of reality in here...
1562. cg2916
Hey, 456, loved post, and thx for the e-mail or w-mail or whatever.

I kinda got bored with the Atlantic, so I switched to the Pacific (btw, this is a few hours old).

Good Morning Everyone:

The live webcam countdown clock has been reset on XtremeHurricanes.com

We will go live again today starting at 2:00 PM CDT.

I'm westbound, headed for Midland-Odessa on I-20.
1564. cg2916
Oh look at it now, even better:

1565. cg2916
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Happy East Pacific Hurricane season everyone
That blob from yesterday died but there's a new one behind it although I suspect it will just putter out like the first one


Well, we'll see.
1566. cg2916
It's over warm SSTs:

1567. cg2916
This would explain why the other one died:

1568. cg2916
Hey, 456, when should the sub-tropical ridge lift and the shear goes away.
1569. cg2916
Am I the only one on?
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
A sparkling morning here, after some decent rain yesterday.
Have to spend some time today checking gutters and drains around the place after that, and in preparation for what is threatening to be heavy stuff coming tonight and beyond. Some trees to trim as well.
The wave east of here is likely to bring heavy rain, and I think we will get a few days of that.
A great day for Sports fans- England and Australia meet in the 20/20 Final in St. Lucia. And Chelsea take on Portsmouth (?? LOL) in the FA Cup in England.

Australia to win, and Chelsea to win 4-0. and you to have your fill of rain
Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, when should the sub-tropical ridge lift and the shear goes away.


The subtropical ridge will lift slowly over the next 2 weeks. Shear will only decrease where the ridge migrates that is the Western Caribbean south of about 17N. Shear remains north of 20N and across the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean until June or anytime thereafter.
1573. cg2916
It's about to run right into shear:



But, the shear is letting up:

1574. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:


The subtropical ridge will lift slowly over the next 2 weeks. Shear will only decrease where the ridge migrates that is the Western Caribbean south of about 17N. Shear remains north of 20N and across the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean until June.


Early June or mid-June.
Quoting cg2916:


Early June or mid-June.


I can only speculate mid-June or anytime thereafter.
1576. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:


I can only speculate mid-June or anytime thereafter.


Ok.
1577. cg2916
Hey, 456, we're about the only ones on here, let's go to Tropics Chat and discuss it there.
1578. cg2916
The blog died again! :O
1579. JRRP


The waters are getting warmer....
they have a nice little blow up about where the oil spill is. looks as though the weather may be coming to us here in s.e. la. i guess the weather is going to stop efforts today. i read a post on here a few days ago and some one said they were starting to smell the oil out there in covington, so i went outside to see if i could smell it and i didn't. the oil is not in the lake or anywhere near it yet. the lake leads to the bayous down in st.Bernard and then out to the open gulf. i know that for sure cuz i go fishing alot. i love it. i wonder why people in covington were smelling it and we were not in mandeville and st.Bernard. can some one tell me how that is possible? I'm not saying they were not smelling it. I'm just wondering how.
Good Morning!

Our nice blob of low pressure seems to have lost all its convection over night. I no longer expect development of this system. It is barely visible on satellite with just a few showers here and there. One thing that will be interesting to watch is this blob of convection that is attached to a trough over the Texas coast. It will slowly slide its way to the GOMEX but here's the thing. The GOMEX currently doesn't have scorching SSTs, they're only about 24˚C - 28˚C and shear in the area is 50 - 60 knots. I do not expect development of this blob whatsoever but it will be interesting to watch.

Quoting Weather456:
That wave is interesting me. In the last few images on satellite animation it looks like the system is wobbling W/WNW/NW. I doubt this is actual movement just growth in convection or it just getting sheared. But it would be very very interesting to see it get into the Caribbean. Never mind the eastern Caribbean has shear of about 30-50 knots, it'll just die in there.
1585. cg2916
Hey guys, I'm back! If anyone wants to go to Tropics Chat, I'm there!
1586. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That wave is interesting me. In the last few images on satellite animation it looks like the system is wobbling W/WNW/NW. I doubt this is actual movement just growth in convection or it just getting sheared. But it would be very very interesting to see it get into the Caribbean. Never mind the eastern Caribbean has shear of about 30-50 knots, it'll just die in there.


Go to comment 1573.
Progress on Relief wells
Link
This blob is north enough, if it survives, to make it to the Caribbean after it passes through the South America. Check out figure 2.

Figure 1.


Figure 2.
Quoting cg2916:


Go to comment 1573.
Thanks.
1591. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This blob is north enough, if it survives, to make it to the Caribbean after it passes through the South America. Check out figure 2.

Figure 1.


Figure 2.


Maybe
good morning everyone
hey MiamiHurricanes09 I think you're right good spotting I hope that we guys here in the caymans get some good rains out of it


nw atl basin
Good morning everyone...my numbers for 2010 are 15 8 4..just a guess understand. Just wanting to ask all of you your feelings for 2010 by what I've read seems we could have a busy one,, hopefully not another 2005! Thanks for any input.
1595. Dakster
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Congrats!


Rick Sanchez is viral but with him its a bad thing...


LMFAO..

didn't we have our first storm in april in 2005?
1598. hydrus
03 Sarah.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning everyone
hey MiamiHurricanes09 I think you're right good spotting I hope that we guys here in the caymans get some good rains out of it
Well if the system can survive South America it will only have a small window for development before running into Central America/Honduras. I doubt the Cayman island will get rain out of it.
Quoting stormhank:
Good morning everyone...my numbers for 2010 are 15 8 4..just a guess understand. Just wanting to ask all of you your feelings for 2010 by what I've read seems we could have a busy one,, hopefully not another 2005! Thanks for any input.
There are a lot of things this year that are similar to 2005 but I doubt that the number of named storms will be one of them. I'm going with 18 named, which is 10 less than 05. NOAA should be releasing their numbers very soon.
does anyone think the activity over Texas and Louisiana will pick up later. i don't want anything bad to happen, but i do appreciate a good storm.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
VICTORIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND VICTORIA FIRE DEPARTMENT
IN VICTORIA TEXAS.

MANY STREETS ACROSS THE COUNTY OF VICTORIA HAVE BEEN INUNDATED WITH
FLASH FLOODING. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR HAS REQUESTED
THAT RESIDENTS OF VICTORIA COUNTY STAY AT HOME DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MAY 15TH 2010 DUE MANY STREETS ARE IMPASSABLE. THIS
MORNING...EMERGENCY SERVICES ARE OVERWHELMED WITH HIGH WATER
RESCUES
Quoting sarahjola:
didn't we have our first storm in april in 2005?
June 8th.
1604. cg2916
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Hey, Storm!
thanks patrap and hydrus
I think 2010 might break some records.

I think we might break the Category 5 numbers (4 - 2005)

And we might break the number of Category 4 numbers before August (2 - 2005)

And the number of retired hurricanes (5 - 2005)
1607. Dakster
Hey Stormw - Are you still in agreement with a busy season?

What are you thoughts for areas at highest risk of a landfall?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think 2010 might break some records.

I think we might break the Category 5 numbers (4 - 2005)

And we might break the number of Category 4 numbers before August (2 - 2005)

And the number of retired hurricanes (5 - 2005)
thats some heavy duty stuff but in reality this season could very well be the year of overhype too
LDWF Announces Additional Openings of Inshore Areas and Territorial Sea to Recreation and Commercial Fishing

Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (LDWF) Secretary Robert Barham recently announced the following openings to recreational and commercial fishing activities and their effective dates.

Inshore Openings (effective sunrise 5/15/10)

* The inshore area of Zone 1 from the Mississippi border to the south pass of the Mississippi River with the exception of Breton and Chandeleur Sounds as described by the double-rig line and the area south and east of Baptiste Collette Bayou this area in not open to shrimping.
* The inshore area from near Sandy Point in Plaquemines Parish at 89 degrees 30 minutes 12 seconds eastward to the Mississippi River, except the waters that are east and south of Red Pass channel which runs from Venice to the Gulf of Mexico.

Inshore Areas Openings (effective sunrise 5/14/10)

* The inshore area from the Empire Canal eastward to the 89 degrees 30 minutes 12 seconds west longitude
* The portion of state inside waters south of 29 degrees 13 minutes 12 seconds north latitude and north of 29 degrees 10 minutes 16 seconds north latitude
* The portion of state inside waters south of 29 degrees 10 minutes 16 seconds north latitude from the western shore of Bayou Lafourche westward to the eastern shore of Bayou Grand Caillou at 90 degrees 56 minutes 14 seconds west longitude remains closed to all recreational and commercial fishing

Territorial Sea Openings (effective sunrise 5/15/10)

* The state's territorial seas from Point au Fer eastward to 91 degrees west longitude.
* The state’s territorial seas from 89 degrees 30 minutes 12 seconds west longitude, eastward to the mouth of Red Pass at 89 degrees 28 minutes 13.4 seconds west longitude.
* Please note that these areas are open to both recreational and commercial fishing except in those areas closed by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH) to oyster harvesting.

Territorial Sea Opening (effective 5/14/10)

* The state's territorial seas between Empire Canal at 89 degrees 36 minutes 19.9 seconds west longitude eastward to the western shoreline of Sandy Point Bay at 89 degrees 30 minutes 12 seconds west longitude


LDWF continues to work closely with the Department of Health and Hospitals to conduct tissue-sample analysis in an effort to assess all opportunities to resume normal fishing activities on Louisiana's Coast and guarantee the safety of Louisiana’s seafood.

All other closures remain in place.

For more information related to the oil spill, visit http://www.emergency.louisiana.gov. Connect with us on www.facebook.com/GOHSEP and on Twitter @GOHSEP. View photos in from the state's response efforts at http://www.flickr.com/photos/lagohsep.
1610. Patrap
1611. Dakster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats some heavy duty stuff but in reality this season could very well be the year of overhype too


Good thing that never happens here on the blog.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats some heavy duty stuff but in reality this season could very well be the year of overhype too


I thought last year was the year of the over hype?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats some heavy duty stuff but in reality this season could very well be the year of overhype too
Well the reason I'm saying this is...

*Above average SST's along the African coast should allow for development of waves when they emerge.

*Cool SSTs over the Gulf of Guinea should allow for less SAL, respectively.

*Less shear because of a negative NAO.

*And a La Niña for the most active part of the season.

*Plus you have the forecasted placement of the Bermuda/Azores high, which should allow for some intense cyclone to affect the eastern seaboard and the GOMEX.
1614. Patrap
Finally a little bit of action.. but truthfully... not much..



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting Dakster:


Good thing that never happens here on the blog.
Hahaha, funny, there's always overhype. (I know you're being sarcastic, btw).
Quoting Orcasystems:


I thought last year was the year of the over hype?

every year there is overhype
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

every year there is overhype
Even if there are no storms in September there's over hype.

1619. Patrap



Unified Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles

What: Unified Command to update media on ongoing operations regarding Deepwater Horizon oil spill response efforts and progress.

Where: The entrance location for press conferences at the Shell Robert Training and Conference Center has changed. Members of the media will enter the facility from the back gate. For a map to the back gate, click here. The address is 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A Unified Area Command joint information center representative will be at the gate at 12:00 p.m., to escort media.

When: 1:30 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for press unable to attend: (877) 918-5750. International callers use (312) 470-7364 Password – RESPONSE (73776673).


Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net. To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 1:15 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.

RSVP: Media interested in attending should arrive no earlier than 12:00 p.m.

For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
then there is
its blowin up hype
its going west hype
its ripping hype
its gonna be a monster hype
and so on and so on and so on
Quoting sarahjola:
they have a nice little blow up about where the oil spill is. looks as though the weather may be coming to us here in s.e. la. i guess the weather is going to stop efforts today. i read a post on here a few days ago and some one said they were starting to smell the oil out there in covington, so i went outside to see if i could smell it and i didn't. the oil is not in the lake or anywhere near it yet. the lake leads to the bayous down in st.Bernard and then out to the open gulf. i know that for sure cuz i go fishing alot. i love it. i wonder why people in covington were smelling it and we were not in mandeville and st.Bernard. can some one tell me how that is possible? I'm not saying they were not smelling it. I'm just wondering how.

That was me.

When the wind was steady out of the ESE, it absolutely did smell in Covington and Slidell, especially later in the day, for a couple of days in a row. I have to believe it was the same for St. Bernard those days.

My dad, that was a rig foreman for 10 years (decades ago), actually smelled it in Baton Rouge one day a week or so ago (back when they had to deal with 8 foot waves because the winds were pretty strong). He called it, "though faint, that unmistakable smell".

I cannot fathom how you didn't smell it in Mandeville or St B those same days I could in Covington. I smell nothing today. Winds not quite the right direction, I suppose.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

every year there is overhype


True, but last year was in January, the forecasts were almost for Armageddon... and then.. nada.
1623. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hahaha, funny, there's always overhype. (I know you're being sarcastic, btw).


I hear you and agree with your current assesment of the situation. However, previous years have looked like it would be a very active season and ended up not nearly as active... Unfortunately, the other way is true too. (2005 was predicted to be above normal, but not a record breaking run through the alphabet active)

Although your current analysis is correct, I hope something happens unexpectedly to make the forecast wrong - for purely personal property reasons.
1624. Dakster
Orca - I thought "armegeddon" was 12-21-2012... or something like that?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Even if there are no storms in September there's over hype.



thats called its a bust hype
Quoting Dakster:


Good thing that never happens here on the blog.

lol, Hype-casting
Nice wave about to make itself onto Africa:

Quoting atmoaggie:

That was me.

When the wind was steady out of the ESE, it absolutely did smell in Covington and Slidell, especially later in the day, for a couple of days in a row. I have to believe it was the same for St. Bernard those days.

My dad, that was a rig foreman for 10 years (decades ago), actually smelled it in Baton Rouge one day a week or so ago (back when they had to deal with 8 foot waves because the winds were pretty strong). He called it, "though faint, that unmistakable smell".

I cannot fathom how you didn't smell it in Mandeville or St B those same days I could in Covington. I smell nothing today. Winds not quite the right direction, I suppose.


Odd Smells in New Orleans, Thoughts of the Gulf

Your not the only one.
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - I thought "armegeddon" was 12-21-2012... or something like that?


I have no idea what the date is.. its not on my outlook calender... so as per normal I will probably miss it :)
Quoting Dakster:


I hear you and agree with your current assesment of the situation. However, previous years have looked like it would be a very active season and ended up not nearly as active... Unfortunately, the other way is true too. (2005 was predicted to be above normal, but not a record breaking run through the alphabet active)

Although your current analysis is correct, I hope something happens unexpectedly to make the forecast wrong - for purely personal property reasons.
Of course. No one ever wants to get struck by a hurricane, ever. And I hope that I am 100% wrong on my forecast too, but there a lot of indicators pointing to an active season. Guess I'm going to have to give you the, "Let's wait and see".
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
then there is
its blowin up hype
its going west hype
its ripping hype
its gonna be a monster hype
and so on and so on and so on


NHC needs to upgrade this now! hype
bastardi hype
if it gets in to the GOM hype
NOLA hype
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


thats called its a bust hype
There's all types of hype. lol.
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - I thought "armegeddon" was 12-21-2012... or something like that?


no
you will be all right as long as yer don't drink any purple kool aide

just in case keep feeding the critters around your area to keep em close in case ya got start eating them

maybe plant a garden

learn how to fish and hunt
I would guess that, assuming the winds are fairly consistent in speed and direction, that most of the NOLA metro area is not smelling the crude right now. Looks to me areas around Raceland, Boutte, even LaPlace *might* have an odor in the air ATM.

Quoting doabarrelroll:


NHC needs to upgrade this now! hype
bastardi hype
if it gets in to the GOM hype
NOLA hype
Miami hype
Pinhole eye hype
RIP hype
JFV super hype

lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Of course. No one ever wants to get struck by a hurricane, ever. And I hope that I am 100% wrong on my forecast too, but there a lot of indicators pointing to an active season. Guess I'm going to have to give you the, "Let's wait and see".


The season is going to be dead..and nothing is going anywhere near Cuba... I need my vacation in December :)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nice wave about to make itself onto Africa:


can see it better here
oh and my personal favorite

Houston is the greatest city on earth and if a hurricane hits us its the end of the world - hype
Good morning folks

Conditions across the basin remain as one would expect this time of year. The waves are starting the trek across the Atl. but most will head inland SA until the ITCZ lifts to the N.

The Northern edge of the wave approaching SA now will affect Trinidad and Tobago and the islands just N of there. Places like Barbados and Grenada should expect passing showers as the cloud deck expands to the North.

Other than that I do not expect much out of it for the Caribbean although it will likely moisten up the extreme Southern Caribbean on the way generally West.

The latter part of May is known for the start of the rainy season in the SW and NW Caribbean and hopefully that will hold true this year as the drought has been severe in the Caymans.The upward pulse of the MJO should prove beneficial in that regard when it arrives.

The next week to 10 days will probably be more of the same.
Quoting Orcasystems:


The season is going to be dead..and nothing is going anywhere near Cuba... I need my vacation in December :)
Lmao.
Quoting AussieStorm:

can see it better here
Thanks
Quoting Orcasystems:


The season is going to be dead..and nothing is going anywhere near Cuba... I need my vacation in December :)


I dont know if posting your vacation to Cuba will make a big splash on a blog with Cuban-Americans, but I am happy that your going to the Carribean
Morning Miami... looks like no EPAC blob anymore; lol!

Quoting Orcasystems:


Odd Smells in New Orleans, Thoughts of the Gulf

Your not the only one.

Yeah, but, that article makes bones about NOLA smelling it from 100 miles away. I am closer to 140 miles, my pop in Baton rouge is about 180 miles away.

Though, he and I prolly have a little less "interference", as it were, from being in the city...lotsa smells to be had...
Quoting MrstormX:
Morning Miami... looks like no EPAC blob anymore; lol!

lol, gone with the wind.
Quoting doabarrelroll:


I dont know if posting your vacation to Cuba will make a big splash on a blog with Cuban-Americans, but I am happy that your going to the Carribean


We go to the GOM every year.. to Canadians.. they are just another friendly Caribbean country :)
1648. Patrap
Lotsa crazed thoughts for a Saturday..

The smell Maps are a tad off..id say.

LOL
Quoting doabarrelroll:


I dont know if posting your vacation to Cuba will make a big splash on a blog with Cuban-Americans, but I am happy that your going to the Carribean

I'm going to the Philippines in December, I hope the WPAC season is dead.
Atlantic Wise it is important to note that the 2005 season didn't even start till mid June, and the horrible 2004 season didn't even start until July 31.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
lol, gone with the wind.


Blob watching season April 20th to December 31
Hurricane season June 1 to November 30
Looks like the next upward motion MJO may be hurrying up. (Remember the ATL/Caribbean/GOMEX and near-by areas are Octave 1 and 8).

1653. Patrap
2009

Invests 90L and 91L before June 1..

Pfffttt...

Quoting Orcasystems:


We go to the GOM every year.. to Canadians.. they are just another friendly Caribbean country :)

well to me their the folks who took my families business, took over their homes, made my family leave their homes, and revoked my parents citizenship for not agreeing with it.

Cuba isn't in the GOM
1655. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats some heavy duty stuff but in reality this season could very well be the year of overhype too
Good Morning Keep. I waited until today to take a stab at the total number of named storms the Atlantic basin will have this year. The numbers I had on the table for last year were 13/7/2. The main reason for predicting so many was because there was a high number of vigorous waves that were coming off of Africa. Vigorous enough to stand a lot of shear. That being said, I am going with 15/10/5. And I hope the major hurricanes stay offshore. By the way, I like post-1633, farmin and huntin is the rule in these heer parts> :)
Quoting Patrap:
2009

Invests 90L and 91L before June 1..

Pfffttt...



Id be curious how many invests befor June in 2005.
Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa crazed thoughts for a Saturday..

The smell Maps are a tad off..id say.

LOL

Ummm, could you tell us how they are off? Or should we just be content to know that Patrap thinks it's off? Somehow.
1658. Patrap
Cajuns were and are smart Acadian's who left Canada for a Warmer and more sophisticated way of Life..

U betcha!!
NAO might be trying to make its way to positive.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm going to the Philippines in December, I hope the WPAC season is dead.


You will have fun.. I liked it :)
1661. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ummm, could you tell us how they are off? Or should we just be content to know that Patrap thinks it's off? Somehow.



I trust my nose and IQ in most matters of smell..

Quoting Patrap:



I trust my nose and IQ in most matters of smell..


Are you smelling it today?
1663. Patrap
Quoting MrstormX:


Id be curious how many invests befor June in 2005.


Well,,ya gonna have to do the digging on that.

I know the answer already,but Im gonna start charging,

Times are tough ya know.

Quoting Patrap:
Cajuns were and are smart Acadian's who left Canada for a Warmer and more sophisticated way of Life..

U betcha!!

LOL!

Ever sought out and consumed "Canadian food"? Sheesh.
1665. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

Are you smelling it today?



Dont know havent been outside.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Looks like Pottery and DDR are finally getting some much needed rain.
1668. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

LOL!

Even sought out and consumed "Canadian food"? Sheesh.


Nopa,,save for some weird bacon stuff on a Pizza once.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Looks like Pottery and DDR are finally getting some much needed rain.
I agree.
I know that I could smell it this morning, and my husband (who can not smell anything except extremely strong smells since a bad cold almost 10 years ago) smelled it this morning as well. Though we are much closer than the city.

Kelley
GOMEX going to get pretty warm when the season starts.

*Note: The graph on post 1667 is the last 30 days.

Forecast
Quoting nishinigami:
I know that I could smell it this morning, and my husband (who can not smell anything except extremely strong smells since a bad cold almost 10 years ago) smelled it this morning as well. Though we are much closer than the city.

Kelley

Where?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GOMEX going to get pretty warm when the season starts.

*Note: The graph on post 1667 is the last 30 days.

Forecast


Why not post the Atlantic SST's they are pretty important too
Quoting atmoaggie:

LOL!

Even sought out and consumed "Canadian food"? Sheesh.


That one made me think? I don't even know anything that would be called "Canadian" Food...
1675. Patrap
No hint this morning Uptown,but some Thunder is noted South of me.

A strong inflow is here as well and Im sure its being lifted up and over this am..

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree.

Looks like that Nice Easterly Wave will be moving through their region over the next few days.

Closer to home, looks like the Gulf of Mexico is warming up nicely. Temps in the N GOM look like they're in the mid 70's now, approaching normal levels.

Rita Evac is getting PLENTY of rain in Houston, TX. Flooding is ongoing near Victoria, TX up to near Houston.

Houston, TX reported 1.12" of rain in 10 minutes. Parts of the area received 5 " of rain last night in 2-3 hrs.
Quoting Orcasystems:


That one made me think? I don't even know anything that would be called "Canadian" Food...

Tongue firmly planted in cheek... ;-)
Notice the Gulf of Guinea cooling quite rapidly.

Quoting doabarrelroll:


Why not post the Atlantic SST's they are pretty important too
I just did.
Quoting Orcasystems:


That one made me think? I don't even know anything that would be called "Canadian" Food...


Maple Syrup, Canadian Bacon, Moose.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just did.


In my FACE!
I am in Braithwaite, in Plaquemines Parish. But it just rained a few minutes ago, and it has a much better smell, for the moment at least :)
Quoting doabarrelroll:


In my FACE!
lol.
1684. Patrap
That Green enhanced SST Map does not go well with my Bad Eyes atall..

Looks like a Badly mixed Grasshopper from a drunk Bartender

1685. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
That Green enhanced SST Map does not go well with my Bad Eyes atall..

Looks like a Badly mixed Grasshopper from a drunk Bartender

Lol, would you like me to remove it?
1687. Patrap
GOM 26C Isotherm

Quoting doabarrelroll:


Maple Syrup, Canadian Bacon, Moose.


All done elsewhere also :)
What we call Canadian bacon... is exactly the same as what Kiwi's call bacon... they won't even eat the stuff north Americans call bacon.


nw atl basin view
Quoting Orcasystems:


All done elsewhere also :)
What we call Canadian bacon... is exactly the same as what Kiwi's call bacon... they won't even eat the stuff north Americans call bacon.


thier loss...
1691. Patrap
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, would you like me to remove it?


Nope..the Hide feature works really well.
Quoting Patrap:


Nope..the Hide feature works really well.
ok.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

every year there is overhype


Then again you have underhype.. Fox News called out Ike when it was charging towards Texas as only 'hype' and it wouldn't be that bad.. and it was. Lotta bloggers compared Dean to Ernesto and called it 'hype' in the early stages of Dean's lifespan.. I tell you they weren't online the night Dean hit the Yucatan..
mmmmmmmmmmmm, toasty!

Quoting Orcasystems:


All done elsewhere also :)
What we call Canadian bacon... is exactly the same as what Kiwi's call bacon... they won't even eat the stuff north Americans call bacon.


It does seem you like your bacon.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then again you have underhype.. Fox News called out Ike when it was charging towards Texas as only 'hype' and it wouldn't be that bad.. and it was. Lotta bloggers compared Dean to Ernesto and called it 'hype' in the early stages of Dean's lifespan.. I tell you they weren't online the night Dean hit the Yucatan..


true enough CT
i kinda like the wait watch and see hype myself
XtremeHurricanes.com Update:

I am currently in Abilene, TX.

Some severe weather is moving through right now...so I've decided to go live with the webcam at the top of the hour.

In 10 minutes, I'll go live with the webcam at XtremeHurricanes.com - Click the "Live Tornado Chase" button
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then again you have underhype.. Fox News called out Ike when it was charging towards Texas as only 'hype' and it wouldn't be that bad.. and it was. Lotta bloggers compared Dean to Ernesto and called it 'hype' in the early stages of Dean's lifespan.. I tell you they weren't online the night Dean hit the Yucatan..


So true!!
Since I'm stopped as the weather builds and moves through, I'll be in the chat room at the web site.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Since I'm stopped as the weather builds and moves through, I'll be in the chat room at the web site.


Have fun Oz, hopefully no car crashes today. (:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Are you smelling it today?

that is interesting. i was told the people in st.Bernard might not notice the smell that much cuz of the refineries. that is understandable. i have been living in mandeville since 2006, but maybe the old oil smell of st.Bernard still lives deep in my senses. lol!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NAO might be trying to make its way to positive.



If your wondering how the NAO impacts tropical cyclone steering a positive NAO index is correlated with elevated pressures in the subtropical high over the North Atlantic Ocean and more frequent re-curvature of Atlantic hurricanes. A negative NAO index is correlated with lower pressures in the subtropical high and a more zonal atmospheric flow that tends to maintain an east-to-west hurricane track.

Here's is a good PDF
Just wated to ask anyones input regarding ENSO neutral season which seems we'll have this year,,does neutral seasons vs La Nina seasons have different impacts on hurricane tracks?? and or amount of storms that form?? Thanks for any input
Quoting MrstormX:


Have fun Oz, hopefully no car crashes today. (:


You betch! :)
Going to the Museum good bye all.
1706. Levi32
Quoting stormhank:
Just wated to ask anyones input regarding ENSO neutral season which seems we'll have this year,,does neutral seasons vs La Nina seasons have different impacts on hurricane tracks?? and or amount of storms that form?? Thanks for any input


First of all we are going into a La Nina during the height of the hurricane season not neutral.

Historical data shows that neutral years actually average more named storms than La Nina years. Tracks will generally tend to be farther west and south during La Ninas. 2005 was a neutral year.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Notice the Gulf of Guinea cooling quite rapidly.


Quoting stormhank:
Just wated to ask anyones input regarding ENSO neutral season which seems we'll have this year,,does neutral seasons vs La Nina seasons have different impacts on hurricane tracks?? and or amount of storms that form?? Thanks for any input


Here's a PDF which may help you from FSU.

Regional Effects of ENSO on U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
Thanks levi... Ive herd they maybe alot of landfalls this year..but I assume thats where they form and the position of the bermuda high
will louisiana see severe weather today
or will southeast la. see severe weather today?
Quoting Levi32:


First of all we are going into a La Nina during the height of the hurricane season not neutral.

Historical data shows that neutral years actually average more named storms than La Nina years. Tracks will generally tend to be farther west and south during La Ninas. 2005 was a neutral year.


Typically with strong La ninas you can get plenty of caribbean cruisers. Dont quite think were gonna get into a strong nina this year.
Quoting Levi32:


First of all we are going into a La Nina during the height of the hurricane season not neutral.

Historical data shows that neutral years actually average more named storms than La Nina years. Tracks will generally tend to be farther west and south during La Ninas. 2005 was a neutral year.
Correct.
Quoting hurricane23:


Typically with strong La ninas you can get plenty of caribbean cruisers. Dont quite think were gonna get into a strong nina this year.
I doubt it. I think weak/moderate sounds good, come September.

ECMWF should be releasing a new one soon...


1715. Levi32
Quoting hurricane23:


Typically with strong La ninas you can get plenty of caribbean cruisers. Dont quite think were gonna get into a strong nina this year.


Even if we do, the rapid reversal that we are seeing would allow for more Cape Verde storms than we usually see during strong Ninas, which would favor more tracks passing north of the Caribbean. However, I think a weak-moderate Nina is in store this summer and fall, with potential to get stronger during the winter.
Good Afternoon to all

Blog Updated

Tropical Update

Tropical Weather Outlook, May 15-31

Blog Update from Yesterday

Other Modulators of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season



1717. Levi32
Quoting stormhank:
Thanks levi... Ive herd they maybe alot of landfalls this year..but I assume thats where they form and the position of the bermuda high


Yes those are important things as well, and although the coming La Nina will modulate those things to some extend, the season is never clear-cut based on just the ENSO.
i want to go fishing today, will the weather be a problem
The NAO is a factor in overall hurricane tracks for our tropical season. Research has shown that a strongly positive NAO results in the strengthening and shift of the Azores High ot the east, placing it closer to the western side of the Atlantic basin. As the Atlantic hurricanes approach the western periphery of this strong High pressure system, it acts as a conveyer belt causing a hurricane to take a more northerly track, and in some situations, steering it away from the Eastern U.S. On the contrary, a strongly negative NAO results in the weakening and shift to the south and west of the Azores High, placing it closer to the southeastern U.S. This would result in the steering of Atlantic hurricanes more towards the Eastern United States or into the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting hurricane23:
The NAO is a factor in overall hurricane tracks for our tropical season. Research has shown that a strongly positive NAO results in the strengthening and shift of the Azores High ot the east, placing it closer to the western side of the Atlantic basin. As the Atlantic hurricanes approach the western periphery of this strong High pressure system, it acts as a conveyer belt causing a hurricane to take a more northerly track, and in some situations, steering it away from the Eastern U.S. On the contrary, a strongly negative NAO results in the weakening and shift to the south and west of the Azores High, placing it closer to the southeastern U.S. This would result in the steering of Atlantic hurricanes more towards the Eastern United States or into the Gulf of Mexico.
And that's why we don't want a negative NAO as we are seeing right now, and how we are going to probably see for most of the season.
i guess i will go look at the radar and see what that looks like
I personally believe this year is going to feature Caribbean truckers, IMO the main focus this year is on the Caribbean and the surrounding islands.. they're at the most risk this year. A Dean / Dennis / Ivan track would be the most devastating.
it's possible that the UK will have flight interruptions again due to the volcano.

good morning all
Quoting hurricane23:
The NAO is a factor in overall hurricane tracks for our tropical season. Research has shown that a strongly positive NAO results in the strengthening and shift of the Azores High ot the east, placing it closer to the western side of the Atlantic basin. As the Atlantic hurricanes approach the western periphery of this strong High pressure system, it acts as a conveyer belt causing a hurricane to take a more northerly track, and in some situations, steering it away from the Eastern U.S. On the contrary, a strongly negative NAO results in the weakening and shift to the south and west of the Azores High, placing it closer to the southeastern U.S. This would result in the steering of Atlantic hurricanes more towards the Eastern United States or into the Gulf of Mexico.


In addition to the position of the Azores. A weaker Icelandic low in the negative NAO results in fewer frontal troughs, reduces the chance of recurvature.
1725. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I personally believe this year is going to feature Caribbean truckers, IMO the main focus this year is on the Caribbean and the surrounding islands.. they're at the most risk this year. A Dean / Dennis / Ivan track would be the most devastating.


And let's pray Haiti doesn't get a strike, although they likely will get at least a flooding event from one or more storms, if not a direct landfall.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I personally believe this year is going to feature Caribbean truckers, IMO the main focus this year is on the Caribbean and the surrounding islands.. they're at the most risk this year. A Dean / Dennis / Ivan track would be the most devastating.


That is absolutely correct.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I personally believe this year is going to feature Caribbean truckers, IMO the main focus this year is on the Caribbean and the surrounding islands.. they're at the most risk this year. A Dean / Dennis / Ivan track would be the most devastating.
You're correct there. The eastern seaboard and GOMEX should also be on their guard, imo.
That wave is pretty north.

What the NOA phase looking like for this season??
Quoting stormhank:
What the NAO phase looking like for this season??
Negative.
The important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. An example in 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when.

Adrian
1731. hurricane23

Very well said.
Our atmosphere is just to complex and coupled to be able to determine what absolute locations will be impacted this season but, by using climatology and examining similar patterns in data, we can come to an educated conclusion of where the highest chance of seeing tropical activity might be. It does not always hold true though, as other occurring steering patterns could be in place that we cannot foresee this far out.
1734. Drakoen
I believe the prevailing tracks will be around the Greater Antilles, south of in the Caribbean and north of into the Bahamas. There is strong support based on climate models that suggests these areas should see below normal sea level pressure which coincides with increased tropical activity.
Quoting Drakoen:
I believe the prevailing tracks will be around the Greater Antilles, south of in the Caribbean and north of into the Bahamas. There is strong support based on climate models that suggests these areas should see below normal sea level pressure which coincides with increased tropical activity.
I agree 100%.
1736. Drakoen
The ECMWF EPS shows ridging occurring over the eastern seaboard on May 24th which if matched up with a good MJO pulse could breed some tropical activity in the Caribbean.

1737. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF EPS shows ridging occurring over the eastern seaboard on May 24th which if matched up with a good MJO pulse could breed some tropical activity in the Caribbean.



I hope they will keep the ensembles up on their site for good this time.
1738. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I hope they will keep the ensembles up on their site for good this time.


It appears so
Link
Quoting Drakoen:
I believe the prevailing tracks will be around the Greater Antilles, south of in the Caribbean and north of into the Bahamas. There is strong support based on climate models that suggests these areas should see below normal sea level pressure which coincides with increased tropical activity.


I am very worried about Haiti.
1740. Levi32
As I showed a couple days ago, the ensembles are also showing an expansion of sub-1010mb surface pressures into the western Caribbean, indicating an increase in heat and convergence.

I for one hope that we see another series of strong ridges as we did last year during the hype of the season because at this point i see no significant hindrance to tropical development as we did last year with abnormal amounts of shear, a very strong SAL that influenced the emerging waves, and a lack of significant convection.
Poor Oz, will be looking for a "needle in a haystack", chasing severe weather from SW TX in an area of 50,000 + square miles with the SPC calling for a 2% chance of tornadoes.
Quoting post # 1731

"In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked"

If Katina & Rita were not blocked, wouldn't they have not entered the GOM at all? I think blocking allowed Katrina & Rita to enter the GOM.
1744. Drakoen
The GFS continues to insist on a strong MJO pulse working through the basin around the 24th, while the GEFS and all of its ensemble members practically skipping our basin.
1745. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


It appears so
Link


Awesome. They will be a great asset to compare with the Euro operational run and GFS ensembles.
1746. Levi32
GFS Ensembles continuing to show increased precipitation over the western Caribbean by the end of the month.

GFS ensembles precipitation Day 12:

1747. Levi32
The GFS ensembles are also showing a favorable pattern of high heights over low heights at this time-frame, with the center of lowest heights over central America. This is also an indication of where heat will be building and is a favorable pattern for tropical mischief in either the Caribbean or eastern Pacific.

GFS ensembles 500mb height normalized anomaly Day 12:

1748. pottery
Trinidad weather now.
Temp 90f
Press 1013 steady
Wind 18 mph East.
Conditions scattered cloud.

Bright, sunny, breezy at my location (Central Trinidad)
Conditions are set to change somewhat, in the near future........
Indeed those sst's are insane with all time records TNA/AMO for MAR/APR. Some analogs in consideration with fading Nino/robust AMO 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005. This link supports consistent low pressures in the W. Atlantic/GOM. And with super warm SST in the Atlantic, should be no problem getting upward motion there when MJO pulses dictate so.

Could be a VERY active season (16+ storms).
1750. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:
GFS Ensembles continuing to show increased precipitation over the western Caribbean by the end of the month.

GFS ensembles precipitation Day 12:



That's over a 12 day period
1751. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


That's over a 12 day period


No you're reading the map wrong. If that was true, Day 15 would have more:

1752. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Notice the Gulf of Guinea cooling quite rapidly.



That looks like the fastest La Niña ever!
1753. Drakoen
1754. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:


That looks like the fastest La Niña ever!


The Gulf of Guinea is not an indicator of La Nina. You are thinking of the central Pacific lol.
1755. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


No you're reading the map wrong. If that was true, Day 15 would have more:



I'm not familiar with those graphics.

1756. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not familiar with those graphics.



They are in mm per 24 hours, I believe. If this helps here is an alternate map from the same run and the same time as the first map at Day 12:

1757. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


They are in mm per 24 hours, I believe. If this helps here is an alternate map from the same run and the same time as the first map at Day 12:



Yea i'm looking at those now
1758. Levi32
Nice area of sub-1008mb pressures in the western Caribbean at the same time on Day 12 as well:

Quoting pottery:
Trinidad weather now.
Temp 90f
Press 1013 steady
Wind 18 mph East.
Conditions scattered cloud.

Bright, sunny, breezy at my location (Central Trinidad)
Conditions are set to change somewhat, in the near future........

Look at the Satellite map of your region. About 300 miles or so to your east is a pretty strong tropical wave, and it has your name ALL over it.

I am not sure what your local meteorological office is calling for, but you may see several inches of well-needed rains!
1760. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:
Nice area of sub-1008mb pressures in the western Caribbean at the same time on Day 12 as well:



In a suspect area where the semi-permanent low traverses.
Quoting cg2916:


That looks like the fastest La Niña ever!


Bear in mind that the Gulf of Guinea does not a La Nina make...
1762. cg2916
Quoting Floodman:


Bear in mind that the Gulf of Guinea does not a La Nina make...


I know, it just looks like it.
1763. pottery
A good friend of mine came by today....
Said he was out in a boat in the Gulf of Paria last w/e.
Saw a very large Platform being towed by 2 tugs going out the Bocas.
Found it strange that it seemed to be listing!
Went closer, and saw that one of the pontoons was deeper than the others, with a huge amount of water being apparently pumped out continuously like a waterfall.
Noted people on the decks, looking down at this.
Saw them launch a boat, and guys in hardhats and lifejackets in the boat pointing and looking at the pontoon.
He took pictures of the thing!!

Then a Platform goes down a couple miles away, a few days later, off Sucre province, Venezuela.
Pictures he has, show the name of the Platform as "......Pearl".

He has promised to send me the images........ will let you see them when he does.
Quite amazing story.

Question...if you are moving a platform, and you have flotation issues, would you leave the shallow Gulf of Paria, and head out into deeper waters?
Are you nuts or something?
can anyone tell me if Cyclone Oz's webcam is online and broadcasting? xtremehurricanes.com
Please let us know...thanks...
1765. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


In a suspect area where the semi-permanent low traverses.


But farther north than you would typically find it. If we get a tropical wave to amplify in this area and take advantage of the Panama monsoon low/Columbian heat low, that could be a possible catalyst for mischief. Goodness knows we have a whole train of tropical waves aimed at this area. At the very least they are piling up air near central America and that building heat will eventually have to go somewhere, in either the east Pacific or Caribbean.
1766. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

Look at the Satellite map of your region. About 300 miles or so to your east is a pretty strong tropical wave, and it has your name ALL over it.

I am not sure what your local meteorological office is calling for, but you may see several inches of well-needed rains!

Yep, we are seeing that.
Enter 'PIARCO' in the weather search-box at the top of this page for Trinidad forecasts etc. The forecaster dont seem too concerned....
I'm no expert, but that wave does look very strong, looks like it might have signs of a little curviture to it.
Disregard previous post...he's out of range.
Afternoon all.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning folks

Conditions across the basin remain as one would expect this time of year. The waves are starting the trek across the Atl. but most will head inland SA until the ITCZ lifts to the N.

The Northern edge of the wave approaching SA now will affect Trinidad and Tobago and the islands just N of there. Places like Barbados and Grenada should expect passing showers as the cloud deck expands to the North.

Other than that I do not expect much out of it for the Caribbean although it will likely moisten up the extreme Southern Caribbean on the way generally West.

The latter part of May is known for the start of the rainy season in the SW and NW Caribbean and hopefully that will hold true this year as the drought has been severe in the Caymans.The upward pulse of the MJO should prove beneficial in that regard when it arrives.

The next week to 10 days will probably be more of the same.
Just looked at our forecast, which is for possible thunderstorms every day after next Monday. This is right on time, about the 18th of the month, if it eventuates. About the only thing that would be on time so far this year.... lol

We've been slightly wetter than normal this winter.... but I don't think that will translate into slightly drier than usual during the early / mid summer months....
Quoting Drakoen:
MJO making a rapid turn there, it might skip the western Pacific altogether, but I doubt it.



I'm out for now, see you all later today.
The back part of this cluster of convection, say around 50W looks to be consolidating and a decent bet it misses SA

Not that anything would come of it, but I wouldnt be shocked to see this be a trigger for something whether it be in the SW Caribbean or EPAC
1772. Dakster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no
you will be all right as long as yer don't drink any purple kool aide

just in case keep feeding the critters around your area to keep em close in case ya got start eating them

maybe plant a garden

learn how to fish and hunt


I can and do most of the above. (I try not to feed the rats though) Only thing I need to learn how to do is prepare what you just hunted so you can cook and eat it. Normally someone else does that for me.

Solar power is my next phase - not for armeggeddon, but for going as green as I can.
Rainy season down here in south Florida should begin very soon. Could be as soon as Tomorrow.


24Hr winds
Cyclone Oz is back in range and broadcasting live on the tornado chase webcam.
1777. RTLSNK
This is just a portion of the news article that was uploaded to the internet 18 minutes ago. It is by Jeffrey Collins, Associated Press Writer, Hammond, La. I just copied the part about the "Corexit 9500":

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry said Friday that three underwater dispersant tests conducted at the leak site proved helpful at keeping oil from reaching the surface."

Traditionally used on the surface, chemical dispersants act like a detergent to break the oil into small globules, which allows it to disperse more quickly into the water or air before currents can wash it ashore.

So far more than 517,000 gallons of dispersants, most of which is a product called Corexit 9500 previously approved by the Environmental Protection Agency for use on the sea surface only, have been dropped over the spill or shot undersea.

Corexit 9500 is identified as a "moderate" human health hazard that can cause eye, skin or respiratory irritation with prolonged exposure, according to safety data documents. Louisiana Health and Hospitals Secretary Alan Levine said federal regulators dismissed state worries about the chemicals.

"Our concerns about the use of these dispersants underwater is based on the fact that there is virtually no science that supports the use of those chemicals," Levine said.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson has said she reserves the right to halt the use of chemical dispersants at any time if new data show more serious environmental harm is occurring.

1778. cg2916
Important question!

Is the negative or positive NAO forecast for this season? Also, which one is favorable for development?
Quoting Drakoen:
I believe the prevailing tracks will be around the Greater Antilles, south of in the Caribbean and north of into the Bahamas. There is strong support based on climate models that suggests these areas should see below normal sea level pressure which coincides with increased tropical activity.
Sounds like we may end up with a few "Antillean crossers" as well. Like 23 said, a lot depends on just where that high / trough relationship sets up at the key moment.

What's bothering me right now besides the potential track right over the Bahamas is the increased potential for long-track storms with major status in the area. If temps continue to heat up as they have been (and really that's only to be expected), there exists a potentially vast reservoir of fuel for the JAS period. This is not so bad in years like '06 when whatever "big ones" we get stay out to sea; with the neutral-cold bias setup likely to be in play for most of the season, I don't have a terribly happy feeling.

And on top of that, anything that crosses the Greater Antilles into our waters before October is highly likely to come across Hispaniola (think David, '79, or Jeanne, '04). This is not a good year for southern Haiti to get hit, and last year northern Haiti took a brutal beating. At this rate, I'm just hoping we don't set any records for devastation / loss of life in the ATL basin this year.

Maybe we're all wrong....
Quoting pottery:

Yep, we are seeing that.
Enter 'PIARCO' in the weather search-box at the top of this page for Trinidad forecasts etc. The forecaster dont seem too concerned....

I did that, they are "under-estimating" the rainfall potential. However, you folks do not need 5" of rain at once, it will cause flash flooding.

Hopefully, you'll receive about 2-3 " of rain this week.

Meanwhile, parts of NW TX (Wichita Falls), SE TX (San Antonio, Victoria and Houston) have received between 3-12" of rain yesterday!
1781. dxdy
Salazar: Latest Effort to Stop Oil Leak Hits Snag
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar says effort to stop Gulf oil leak hits snag, but work continues...

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10653958

Barack Obama sends nuclear experts to tackle BP's Gulf of Mexico oil leak.
The US has sent a team of nuclear physicists to help BP plug the "catastrophic" flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico from its leaking Deepwater Horizon well, as the Obama administration becomes frustrated with the oil giant's inability to control the situation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7726142/Barack-Obama-sends-nuclear -experts-to-tackle-BPs-Gulf-of-Mexico-oil-leak.html

Mother of all gushers could kill Earth's oceans
Imagine a pipe 5 feet wide (potentially) spewing crude oil like a fire hose from what could be the planets' largest, high-pressure oil and gas reserve. With the best technology available to man, the Deepwater Horizon rig popped a hole into that reserve and was overwhelmed. If this isn't contained, it could poison all the oceans of the world.
"Well if you say the fire hose has a 70,000 psi pump on the other end yes! No comparison here. The volume out rises geometrically with pressure. Its a squares function. Two times the pressure is 4 times the push. The Alaska pipeline is 4 feet in diameter and pushes with a lot less pressure. This situation in the Gulf of Mexico is stunning dangerous." -- Paul Noel (May 2, 2010)
Last night we received the following text in an email, author not identified. I passed it by Paul Noel, who is an expert in the field. His response follows thereafter. In calculating the gallons required to kill the oceans, remember that oil goes to the surface, where life is concentrated.

The original estimate was about 5,000 gallons of oil a day spilling into the ocean. Now they're saying 200,000 gallons a day. That's over a million gallons of crude oil a week!

I'm engineer with 25 years of experience. I've worked on some big projects with big machines. Maybe that's why this mess is so clear to me.

First, the BP platform was drilling for what they call deep oil. They go out where the ocean is about 5,000 feet deep and drill another 30,000 feet into the crust of the earth. This it right on the edge of what human technology can do. Well, this time they hit a pocket of oil at such high pressure that it burst all of their safety valves all the way up to the drilling rig and then caused the rig to explode and sink. Take a moment to grasp the import of that. The pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.
When the rig sank it flipped over and landed on top of the drill hole some 5,000 feet under the ocean.

Now they've got a hole in the ocean floor, 5,000 feet down with a wrecked oil drilling rig sitting on top of it spewing 200,000 [gallons] of oil a day into the ocean. Take a moment and consider that, will you!

First they have to get the oil rig off the hole to get at it in order to try to cap it. Do you know the level of effort it will take to move that wrecked oil rig, sitting under 5,000 feet of water? That operation alone would take years and hundreds of millions to accomplish. Then, how do you cap that hole in the muddy ocean floor? There just is no way. No way.

The only piece of human technology that might address this is a nuclear bomb. I'm not kidding. If they put a nuke down there in the right spot it might seal up the hole. Nothing short of that will work. [See Paul Noel's ideas above.]

If we can't cap that hole that oil is going to destroy the oceans of the world. It only takes one quart of motor oil to make 250,000 gallons of ocean water toxic to wildlife. Are you starting to get the magnitude of this?

We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Imagine what happens if that oil keeps flowing until it destroys all life in the oceans of this planet. Who knows how big of a reservoir of oil is down there.

Not to mention that the oceans are critical to maintaining the proper oxygen level in the atmosphere for human life.
We're humped, unless God steps in and fixes this. No human can; you can be sure of that.

Response by Paul Noel
for Pure Energy Systems News
I really do think that the situation is getting further and further out of hand.

By yesterday morning, the nature of the crude had changed, indicating that the spill was collapsing the rock structures. How much I cannot say. If it is collapsing the rock structures, the least that can be said is that the rock is fragmenting and blowing up the tube with the oil. With that going on you have a high pressure abrasive sand blaster working on the kinks in the pipe eroding it causing the very real risk of increasing the leaks.

More than that is the very real risk of causing the casing to become unstable and literally blowing it up the well bringing the hole to totally open condition. Another risk arises because according to reports the crew was cementing the exterior of the casing when this happens. As a result, the well, if this was not properly completed, could begin to blow outside the casing. Another possible scenario is a sea floor collapse. If that happens Katie bar the door.

Possible Fix

I do not see any good possibilities from humans further fracturing the rock particularly at higher levels. That is the cap rock that is holding the deposit together.

I do see a possible use of explosives for favorable outcome. If a properly sized charge were applied in a shaped fashion around the drill pipe at some distance from it say 5 feet or so it is entirely possible that an explosive charge could pinch the pipe off similar to a hydraulic clamp. The resulting situation would vastly reduce the spill. Once you clamped off the pipe much more substantially say down to 1 foot or less opening the resulting pipe could be charge cut above the location and a tapered pipe fitted to it to collect any leaking oil. The end result would be to contain the spill and dramatically control any leaks because drill mud could then be entered into the pipe fitted to the exterior. In the end, the pipe could be controlled that way. The size of a charge to do this would be a few pounds not megatons.

A nuclear detonation carries the real risk of giving us the full doomsday scenario on this well. I just don't like doing that. There is no coming back from the brink when you do that one. If it works, which I see as unlikely, great. If it doesn't work, there is now a maybe a hole 1/4 mile across leaking oil. That looks worse than any possible outcomes otherwise.


Oil Deposit Capacity

The BP people are not talking, but this well is into a deposit that easily could top 500,000 barrels production per day for 10 or 15 years. Letting that all go in one blast seems more than foolish.

The deposit is one I have known about since 1988. The deposit is very big. The central pressure in the deposit is 165 to 170 thousand PSI. It contains so much hydrocarbon that you simply cannot imagine it. In published reports, BP estimated a blow out could reach near 200,000 Barrels per day (165,000) They may have estimated a flow rate on a 5 foot pipe. The deposit is well able to surpass this.

The oil industry has knowledge of the deposit more than they admit. The deposit is 100 miles off shore. They are drilling into the edge of the deposit to leak it down gently to be able to produce from the deposit. The deposit is so large that while I have never heard exact numbers it was described to me to be either the largest or the second largest oil deposit ever found. It is mostly a natural gas deposit. That is another reason not to blast too willy nilly there. The natural gas that could be released is really way beyond the oil in quantity. It is like 10,000 times the oil in the deposit.

It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." (and that is very scary)
The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas. This is a really massive deposit. Punching holes in the deposit is a really scary event as we are now seeing.

http://pesn.com/2010/05/02/9501643_Mother_of_all_gushers_could_kill_Earths_oceans/

What happened when the well blew out was that the BOP failed to close...it should have snipped off the drill pipe and we wouldn't be here...but it didn't....I believe it tried to...but it didn't have the power to or something went wrong...I believe it is partially closed and perhaps squished the drill pipe some and is helping to restrict the flow...no one outside of BP really knows and maybe they even don't...but it failed for whatever reason...So the well blows up gas and oil...then explodes on the rig...2 days later the rig sinks...the well is blowing gas and oil up the whole time.
When the rig sinks, the riser pipe is still attached to both the BOP and the rig, the drill pipe is still inside the riser pipe..a pipe inside a pipe.....it gets all bent up and twisted as the entire rig falls to the sea floor...sometime along the way down the riser and drill pipe inside it break off from the wreckage somewhere along that 5000 foot long pipe. It snaps apart and oil and gas start gushing out the end opposite the BOP. The portions closer to the well BOP are bent up from the crash and the end attached to the bop assembly?...stays attached, but it is bent over...the rig wreckage comes to rest on sea floor about 1500 feet away from the well, no longer connected to it....the pipes still attached to the well are gushing out oil even though it's mostly "kinked" up like a bent up garden hose and damaged....
And now...begins the fight against the open leaking well...

Oil as it comes up from the earth is not exactly "clean"....in fact..it has a fair amount of crud in it....sand, hydrocarbons, other solids...and these impurities, they are abrasive...just like sand paper...or more like a "Sand blaster" in this case...so this abrasive mix of oil, crud and gas is rushing through the steel tubing and the machinery of the BOP under enormous virtually inexhaustible pressure...and it's chewing away the steel pipes and parts that are holding it back from rushing more...wherever there is a kink or something in the way?...there is the force of the abrasive fluid slowly eating it, wearing it away, same for whatever leak that has high pressure fluid blasting through it...which may not be the ones you see, but ones inside what is left of the pipes that the fluid is really shooting out of or past.

So the "Leaks" get bigger because they are being eroded away, when that happens?...more fluid gushes past and they get eaten more, the faster it can leak, the more it will eat, the more it chews away, the faster it goes like a dam made of ice slowly but surely melting....and it will eventually go faster and faster until all the parts are worn thin enough that they will fail and explode off and the gusher will be more and more open...until it's wide open...no restrictions...THAT is inevitable, it WILL happen if this well cannot be stopped from flowing, it is only a matter of time and how much time is only a guess...but one thing that is certain...it will continue to gush more and more until it does eat everything away and is wide open.

I am telling you all this so that you will understand what it is that we face..and also so that if you live near the Gulf of Mexico, you can make preparations for the possibilities...which could be incredibly bad...panic evacs or just plain mass panic, noxious fumes or worse...I guarantee that NO ONE knows for sure.

They really only have one shot here...and that is the top kill, Watch for it and pay attention, be aware what this all means to ALL OF US and I hope I explained things well enough to be understood by anyone. The top kill shot should be coming soon...I hope...as soon as possible....if you hear it failed...or if the well blew itself apart before they can do it...get ready, because a Pandora's box is about to open wide, that we will likely see in our lifetimes, is about to come charging out at full rampant force...and it's a very large and deep box....


Godspeed people.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25BE42PzZZc
1782. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds like we may end up with a few "Antillean crossers" as well. Like 23 said, a lot depends on just where that high / trough relationship sets up at the key moment.

What's bothering me right now besides the potential track right over the Bahamas is the increased potential for long-track storms with major status in the area. If temps continue to heat up as they have been (and really that's only to be expected), there exists a potentially vast reservoir of fuel for the JAS period. This is not so bad in years like '06 when whatever "big ones" we get stay out to sea; with the neutral-cold bias setup likely to be in play for most of the season, I don't have a terribly happy feeling.

And on top of that, anything that crosses the Greater Antilles into our waters before October is highly likely to come across Hispaniola (think David, '79, or Jeanne, '04). This is not a good year for southern Haiti to get hit, and last year northern Haiti took a brutal beating. At this rate, I'm just hoping we don't set any records for devastation / loss of life in the ATL basin this year.

Maybe we're all wrong....


Hey, Baha, would this make most of them go through the old Hebert Box?
1783. Patrap
Salazar: Latest effort to stop oil leak hits snag



Credit: AP

by The Associated Press
wwltv.com

Posted on May 15, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Updated today at 11:56 AM
Gallery



JACKSON, La. -- At first, BP tried to stop the oil rushing into the Gulf of Mexico by flipping a blowout preventer switch. A week ago, they attempted to capture the leak with a 100-ton box. Now they've hit a snag as they try to guide a mile-long tube into the gusher to siphon the oil.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said BP had a problem Saturday with the latest effort to stop the leak, but was continuing its work at the ocean floor.

"There was a problem. They had to reconfigure. They are back down again ... trying to get it inserted," he told reporters during a briefing Saturday morning, declining to offer further information.

BP PLC has offered scant details of its progress in trying to thread the 6-inch tube into the 21-inch pipe spewing oil from the ocean floor. Company spokesmen said technicians are continuing the methodical work of using joysticks to guide the deep-sea robots that are manipulating the contraption, but wouldn't elaborate on
Salazar's report.

"We've never done such operations before and we need to take our time to get it right," spokesman Jon Pack said in an e-mail Saturday.

The tube is intended to suck oil up like a straw to a tanker on the surface, while a stopper surrounding it would keep crude from leaking into the sea.

The company also received word that federal regulators had approved spraying chemical dispersants beneath the sea, a contentious development because it has never been done underwater.

Traditionally used on the ocean surface, chemical dispersants act like a detergent to break the oil into small globules, which allows it to disperse more quickly into the water or air before currents can wash it ashore. Louisiana officials claim BP and the Environmental Protection Agency ignored their concerns about how
the chemicals may harm the sea floor.

More than three weeks after the oil rig explosion that killed 11 workers and set off the disastrous spill, President Barack Obama assailed oil drillers and his own administration Friday as he ordered extra scrutiny of drilling permits. He condemned a "ridiculous spectacle" of oil executives shifting blame in congressional hearings and denounced a "cozy relationship" between the companies and the federal government.

"I will not tolerate more finger-pointing or irresponsibility," Obama said in the White House Rose Garden, flanked by members of his Cabinet.

"The system failed, and it failed badly. And for that, there is enough responsibility to go around. And all parties should be willing to accept it," the president said.

Obama's tone was a marked departure from the deliberate approach and mild chiding that had characterized his response since the rig went up in flames April 20 and sank two days later. At least 210,000 gallons of oil has been leaking into the Gulf each day, and BP has sought to burn the crude off the surface of the water, as
well as use the chemical dispersants.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
Not sure. Hebert's boxes [there are two of them] are situated to cover the easterly approach to the Bahamas for CV type storm as well as the SW CAR, from whence originate most of the late season storms. I wouldn't be surprised if the boxes get hit some this year.
1785. Patrap


Deepwater Horizon Response Phone Press Conference, Part 6

Joint Public Affairs Support Element More Videos from Joint Public Affairs Support Element RSS
Video by Lt. Scott Sagisi
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Date Taken: 05.14.2010
Posted: 05.14.2010 17:06
Video Location: LA, US
Officials brief the media, and then take questions and answer, about the current oil spill situation in the Gulf Coast. Part 6 of 7. Oilspill10
Here's Wikipedia's depiction of their locations:



What I do know is that just about every storm that hits the east coast of FL from the east has already passed through Bahamian territory.... a much more accurate predictor.... lol
1788. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


That one made me think? I don't even know anything that would be called "Canadian" Food...


What about Canadian Bacon?
1789. Patrap
Good Movie..
Here's Wikipedia's depiction of Hebert's box locations:



What I do know is that just about every storm that hits the east coast of FL from the east has already passed through Bahamian territory.... a much more accurate predictor.... lol

Also a reminder. Not every storm that passes through the one of the boxes hits FL.... more like the other way around....

Something interesting I'd like to investigate when I have more time: What about storms that cross Cuba or Hispaniola? What's the incidence of them ending up crossing the FL coast, even along the panhandle?
FINALLY!!!! It's RAINING!!!! I'm happy.
1794. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here's Wikipedia's depiction of their locations:



What I do know is that just about every storm that hits the east coast of FL from the east has already passed through Bahamian territory.... a much more accurate predictor.... lol


Thanks, Baha, never knew there were two boxes. I was only familiar with the one above the islands. Just hope most of these ways stay away from Haiti, people still living outdoors there.
1795. JRRP
1796. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here's Wikipedia's depiction of Hebert's box locations:



What I do know is that just about every storm that hits the east coast of FL from the east has already passed through Bahamian territory.... a much more accurate predictor.... lol

Also a reminder. Not every storm that passes through the one of the boxes hits FL.... more like the other way around....

Something interesting I'd like to investigate when I have more time: What about storms that cross Cuba or Hispaniola? What's the incidence of them ending up crossing the FL coast, even along the panhandle?


Got a great link for you, or anyone who is interest in Hurricane paths that hit Florida. Really interesting info. Enjoy!

Link
A rather dull tropical day...
Yawn
1799. Patrap
Quoting JRRP:


an early sign of things to come
Afternoon all...

I see we've already broken out the HeRbert boxes...lol

I'm off to the pool with a beer in tow...too nice to be inside today.

Y'all have fun.
1803. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:


.. do I spy a pinhole eye?
Nasty looking wave

1806. Patrap
More of a Pinhole wink ya could say CT,..

But the feature is very interesting and we will watch it off shore and see what she does tonight,..if it can transition to the sea conditions..
1807. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:


an early sign of things to come

yeah
that is not normal imo
1808. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
Nasty looking wave


...seems to be losing some convection on its West, when you look at the most recent loops.
I am wondering if the existing strong upper level flow will blow a lot of it off to the NorthEast> ??
How's it going 456 great to see u on with your tropical updates> Good Afternoon to all and another Hurricane season

,
Quoting Weather456:
Nasty looking wave

1811. JRRP
perfecto practicamente todo el mundo se fue cuando vine :d
Good afternoon Pottery, hows it going in TNT? I been watching the suspicious wave for the last few days and have to say it looks interesting. Tonight should tell a few< conditions are good, SST at 30 and convection re-organizing.

Quoting pottery:

...seems to be losing some convection on its West, when you look at the most recent loops.
I am wondering if the existing strong upper level flow will blow a lot of it off to the NorthEast> ??
Quoting JRRP:
perfecto practicamente todo el mundo se fue cuando vine :d

Todavia estoy aqui! =) jaja
1814. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneGeek:

Todavia estoy aqui! =) jaja

lol estaba bromeando un poco :P
SI lo sé =)... Nunca pensé que pudiera practicar mi espanol aqui! jajaja
Quoting Weather456:
Nasty looking wave

On satellite animation it seems to be moving northward. I am being impressed by this wave and if it can make itself more to the north I think Invest 90L will happen soon.
well they have this on our AOI/tropical wave

First darker shade of purple of the year! =)
1819. kingy
Quoting Patrap:
Oil Spill Radar Image from CSTARS, May 14, 2010


ESL by LSU


that southern slug of the slick is getting closer to the loop current
1820. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Nasty looking wave



Yup
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well they have this on our AOI/tropical wave

If it can get to blue by the day's end I will be very interested.
1822. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
SI lo sé =)... Nunca pensé que pudiera practicar mi espanol aqui! jajaja

lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On satellite animation it seems to be moving northward. I am being impressed by this wave and if it can make itself more to the north I think Invest 90L will happen soon.


If it can make itself more to the north, wouldn't it be ripped apart by shear? Or is shear retreating? Shear gets pretty insane to the north from the map in post 1801.

Also, 1817, wow, I'm pretty impressed. I have a question about that map, though. (It's probably an idiotic question) Why is the end of the scale 12%+? Rather than something like 60+.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it can get to blue by the day's end I will be very interested.


I have never seen one be PINK before, not even really green o yellow. Why?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it can get to blue by the day's end I will be very interested.


Me too. I agree with others that it could be a bad omen. How often does the map update?
Worth noting that the GFS predicts something to develop around the 17th in the Western Caribbean.. although weak, slow, and very small. The GFS has been very consistent for a few weeks on a Caribbean May storm.. we'll have to keep an eye on it, as the GFS did well in 2008 as long as it was consistent. The wave out by South America COULD be the wave that spawns the GFS system.

Link
Im no expert,but that wave at 53-55w does look more organized.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it can get to blue by the day's end I will be very interested.


This reminds me of the wave that claudette eventually formed off of, it came from Africa lost its convection in the Caribbean due to shear but eventually reorganized.
Invest 90l a possibility.
Upper level divergence


Lower level convergence


Wow the system is strengthening.
Did Claudette make it to GOM?
Quoting tropicaltank:
Invest 90l a possibility.


At the very best thats probably what it will become... Im not too optimistic as of yet especially after being let down last night
Quoting tropicaltank:
Did Claudette make it to GOM?


Claudette made landfall as a TS in NE Florida
1834. xcool
wow "I Remember That''s wave oh wow
Quoting tropicaltank:
Did Claudette make it to GOM?


Aye, it did... landfall in the florida panhandle. Its radar image is my current avatar.
1836. xcool
SATURDAY 7:30 AM

UPWARD MOTION STARTING IN DEEP TROPICS

A look at this mornings cloud shot in the atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

indicates that the sinking air that 1) has been dominating the tropics near 10 north so far this month i and 2) been the precursor to the "suddenly its summer" pattern that will develop in the plains, is coming off. This is in line with the worry that once to the last week of May and beyond, an early start to the hurricane season is in the works

anyway, lets see if the Caribbean gets into the act next week

by joe
We just got hammered in Gulfport from GOM Thunderstorms.
1838. kingy
what SST's is that wave over ?
1839. xcool



Quoting kingy:
what SST's is that wave over ?


29-30C
1841. xcool
81f i think
The wave in the Atlantic is amazingly strengthening, showing convection, I have seen storms develop as far south as it is, but not in May.. This is something lol. Great outflow as well, still has ways to go before Invest 90L is tagged, if it happens.
Quoting kingy:
what SST's is that wave over ?


28.3ish
Quoting pottery:

...seems to be losing some convection on its West, when you look at the most recent loops.
I am wondering if the existing strong upper level flow will blow a lot of it off to the NorthEast> ??
shear to it nw is causing it to disapate as it gets closer to tou most of convection has wane with a indication of increasing convection but small at the moment
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shear to it nw is causing it to disapate as it gets closer to tou most of convection has wane with a indication of increasing convection but small at the moment


If it can hold on to some of its circulation, it might be able to pass through the shear and then redevelop convection.
1846.) Yikes Keeper that is some nasty shear, I notice the area TS Claudette formed is decent however.
It's an impressive wave, but a whole lot of seasonal shear to it's north. Guys, it's just too early for this to get further. Though the convection has waned, the structure has improved. It's an interesting little critter.
1849. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shear to it nw is causing it to disapate as it gets closer to tou most of convection has wane with a indication of increasing convection but small at the moment

That's what I am seeing too, Keeper.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well they have this on our AOI/tropical wave


Where did you get that map? How often does it update?
Quoting wxmobilejim:

Where did you get that map? How often does it update?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
1852. LemieT
Quoting reedzone:
It's an impressive wave, but a whole lot of seasonal shear to it's north. Guys, it's just too early for this to get further. Though the convection has waned, the structure has improved. It's an interesting little critter.


Certainly looks interesting from where I'm sitting. Seems like we may be getting some passing showers tomorrow in Barbados if this thing holds together. All signs point to an interesting season.



Look at that blob in Africa...
Waves this early looking that impressive is kinda scary...hopefully not a sign of whats to come
Quoting stormhank:
Waves this early looking that impressive is kinda scary...hopefully not a sign of whats to come


Unfortunately this is a sign of things to come

If anyone missed it:

May 15-31 Outlook
1856. barbamz
Good night from Germany with this fresh screenshot from fascinating "E" scenery

Click to enlarge
vodafone live webcam Eijafjallajökull
Maybe Monday air traffic will be shut down in Germany again ...
#1781 dxdy ... I'm not sure I've ever seen so much misinformation crammed into one post. Yes, the oil spill is very serious, but wow ... please refrain from posting about the spill. You are just spreading hysteria at a time when what we really need is solid information and cool heads.

WTO
new blog
1859. xcool
how about Dry Air ???
Nice job 456, Side note BP thinks they will have plug straw contraption working sometime tonight. Also Icelandic volcano looks like its on a roll today.
1861. pottery
WTO, WUMail in your in-box...
Quoting Grothar:


What about Canadian Bacon?


Already covered. I nominate "Nanaimo bars."
1863. xcool
NEW BLOG
weather456 thanks for the link to your ourlook bro... very well written and informative....Do any of you think we could pass the 200 number on the ACE index this year?? that would be awful..Im scared some parts of the coasts are going to get struck this year
1865. LemieT
Quoting Weather456:


Unfortunately this is a sign of things to come

If anyone missed it:

May 15-31 Outlook


Great outlook W456, you've explained the relationship between factors quite nicely.
Evening all.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all...

I see we've already broken out the HeRbert boxes...lol

I'm off to the pool with a beer in tow...too nice to be inside today.

Y'all have fun.
IMO, it's the best time TO break 'em out... lol.... before they can do any real damage.... lol

Would like to say it's good to see so many of the "oldtimers" joining in early this year....