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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

So long Franklin, hello Gert

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2005

Franklin is maintaining itself as a small tropical storm just below hurricane strength. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fixes at 11am and 1:15pm EDT found central pressures of 1002 and 1003 mb, respectively. Maximum winds remained just below hurricane force on both penetrations, and the storm is continuing its NE motion out to sea. The trough that is steering it out to sea may also begin shearing the storm and weakening it 1 - 2 days from now. As NHC hurricane specialist Dr. James Franklin noted in his 5am discussion today, "It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin..the storm, not the forecaster...in 2 - 3 days." For now, there is no threat to land from Franklin, and Dr. Franklin will have to wait until his namesake storm's name gets recycled six years from now to get a major hurricane named Franklin.

The tropical wave that crossed the Yucatan last night was slow to develop today, and the Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled to investigate was cancelled. However, the wave has now developed a circulation center in the far southern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico, near 19N. Deep convection has increased around this circulation center, especially to the southeast. Upper level winds continue to be favorable for development, and it is likely that Tropical Depression 7 will exist by 5am Sunday. The storm doesn't have much room to maneuver in the Bay, and will probably come ashore on the Mexican coast Monday between Veracruz and Tampico before it has a chance to become a hurricane.

Looking out over the far tropical Atlantic, the disturbance that I discussed yesterday that was approaching Venezuela is now gone, destroyed by interaction with South America. The ITCZ--the zone of deep convective storms that forms where the northeasterly trade winds from the Northern Hemisphere collide with the southeasterly trade winds from the Southern Hemisphere--continues to be very active for this time of year, and the image above shows a large tropical wave in the center of the ocean we may want to watch over the next few days. The GFS computer model suggests that wind shear is now too high to allow development of this wave, but once the wave approaches the Bahamas next Saturday, wind shear might lessen. However, my guess is that the large amount of dry air in the tropics right now associated with the Saharan dust we see on the image will act to discourage any tropical storm formation from this wave.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks consistent with the models. Franklin probably wont threaten the se coast. The system in bay of campeche is doing what it was expected to do its going to threaten ne mexico.
Nothings seems too surprising right now. I really like your images and descriptions Dr. Masters. Showing exactly what you are talking about sure helps me understand even better.

Like I said earlier, that large dust filled low is going to reduce the chance of the large wave from developing. Looks like the tropics will be RELATIVELY quiet this coming up week or two. I say relatively because we wont have any MAJOR hurricanes to deal with. Two tropical storms is nothing compared to Emily and Dennis.
Dr. Masters,

Do you also think that the ITCZ is WAY too far south for tropical development? It seems really active, but with the ITCZ so close to the equator, it does not seem like a good location for tropical storms.

Most people kept saying yesterday that the storm at 50w,10n was promissing. It just seemed too obvious to me that it was too far south with the South American continent so close. I think its interesting that the GFS is saying the wave should move north, considering how the ITCZ does not seem to be shifting northward all that much.
Its about time we get a rest from the tropics or we'll end up using 2 lists of storm names. lol
Umm franklin isn't gone yet,just beacause computer models say so doesnt mean they are right,yes they could be right but thats a bold satement *franklin gone*.
Stormtop, how can it be so hard to understand when there are 1018-1019 millibar readings over the n gulf that there is a high. This feature is whats driving the wave westward toward mexico. Still think this thing's going to make a turn to the north? I dont see that happening.
Most of the models have it running out to sea. The trof moving from the northwest should shuttle it out. There isnt going to be much of this system in only a few days. And even if it does stall out right where it is, it will use up all of the warm sea surface temperatures, thus reducing the chance of prolonged development. Basically, the storm is will be shot in the foot either way it decides to go.
My last post it in reference to Franklin, of course.

I must head off, back in a few hours to read up on what everyone is saying and to see if we have another depression.
its hard to understand alec because i dont see it either on water vapor or satellite loops...where are you seeing this strong high you are talking about the nhc isnt saying anything about it neither is the weather channel...they are saying thing about the trough that is digging towards the center of the country driving a cool front which is supposed to get hung up in northern la which will squash the high over the gulf..and like i said before pressures are up all over the gulfcoast from mexico to fla...
10. Alec
still think this thing will turn north? i dont see it happening. If you would just go to a pressure chart youd see a high there.
11. Alec
You dont see highs on vapor charts or satellites you see the motion of systems and pictures there, which if interpreted with a pressure chart would reveal whats happening.
there is a tropical depression in the bay of campeche right now and by the looks from the water vapor charts it looks like its stationary...the low in mexico alec is still to the west of it and not moving like the computers forcasted this would be out the way...im sorry i think the low is going to start the depression moving n or nnw....this may take a full day before this happens...if you are correct about the high then we have a depression which is stalled in the bay of campecehe between your high to the north and its worse enemy the middle level low to the west..we have what you call a mexican standoff...we will see if there is a high like you say..if there is one this thing wont move anywhere as long as the low stays in place over mexico...and if there isnt a high and the low stays where it is the depression has to move n or nnw...thats a fact not a statement.....
13. Alec
You said the pressures were dropping a while ago. They are definitely high along the gulf coast.
that alec i flat out disagree with you ...i seen many highs on water vapor charts...please someone from the nhc step in anytime and tell alec he is wrong...you know it and i know it...that is the craziest thing i ever heard you dont see high on water vapor charts...
Honestly, that was beautifully stated Alec. One of the first things they teach in satellite meteorology is that satellites can be deceiving. Thunderstorms can occur in ridges and are not a sign of low pressure.

WV clearly shows a monster anticyclone over the Plains, another one on top of the Bay of Campeche with the East coast trough helping to amplify the Plains Ridge. So much northerly / northeasterly flow moving towards the Gulf right now.
On all the satellites I've seen the td in the gulf is heading west toward Mexico.
ok alec we will know in the morning for sure and i didnt say pressures were falling i said the latest info i got pressures are high along the entire gulf coast from mexico to florida.........
18. Alec
Ok. i see where your going with it. Its not going to reach cat 3 status. even the experts here are saying that since its going to mexico. You said a couple days ago it was going to turn northward imminently but never happened. I want you to consider what i have to say about that high. Some other guys on here want an explanation why you said emily would move north but never did.
The depression is almost like Bret,it will probably be gone in less than a day and have no significant impact. Even the rain impact doesn't look like much now. It will just be annoying for the clean up efforts.
alec i dont know where you are getting this info about the pressure but in new orleans the barometric pressure has been falling all day .its 30.05 and falling...it has fallen 7 mb in the last 10 hours..just for information purposes only....
the wind also is out of the ese and se off the gulf suggesting to me the west wind we did have is gone with the wind....we also have increased rain prob...for the next 3 days..i dont call that a strong high over the central gulf..strong highs are supposed to supress thunder storm activity....
22. Alec
Stormtop that comment above was offensive to me, you just never back down, im trying to explain my reasoning to you and you just take a stab at it.
tropical depression 7 forms in bay of campecehe.......you will see now things will start picking up ...the pressure is falling and should start falling even more later this evening...this depression is not moving alec...its stalled because of the low on the mexican coast...
24. Alec
cant you respect something i say without bein nasty about it? I dont go off and say you made the "craziest comment" i just say i disagree with you
It might get into texas because the water vapor loops show a weakness forming in the high. I think its going to North Mexico though because it is really far south now.
Where is this 7mb pressure drop? I'm looking at New Orleans Lakefront Airport and in that last 10 hours, the pressure has gone from 1018mb to 1018.4mb. It actually rose to 1019.9mb a couple hours ago. Is there another station that shows the drop?
The storm is not stalled
Yeah, that low is literally hugging the coast of MX right now.
Just an observation from the Alabama coast. Pressure was 30.01 at 6:43 am this morning and it is now 29.92 and falling as of 2:53pm for whatever it is worth.
im disgusting alec thats all im doing...i think you are not looking at a few things that you should add in the equation...you have said the low would disappear over the yucatan and move south what the computers said well it didnt it is stuck over mexico now and it moved west not south..im only trying to give you my point of view...im not being offensive to you its call discussion...
If this thing is going to develop, it needs to get away from the coastline. Otherwise, it runs the risk of getting pulled into the coast via frictional effects.
Pressure does tend to drop near thunderstorms and there are a few large ones in Louisiana.
is franklin being torn in two right now or is it going southeast?
I think its jogging southeast just ahead of the trough.
ok alec i disagree with you..i just thought someone with your experience and believe me i respect it was a crazy statement saying you cant see highs from water vapor charts ..i was stunned to hear you come out with that...im sorry if i offended you but you shocked me..
There are no T-Storms anywhere around here. So why would the pressure be falling when it is hot and sunny?
it changes here in florida all the time for no apparent reason
38. Alec
So you are disgusting me? im not going to argue with you im just saying i dont agree with you. Now as this thing travels west itll hit mexico. Still think this system's going to hit the central gulf stormtop?
the weather channel if you been keeping track the pree has fallen to 30.05 and continues to fall...im talking new orleans..
Stormtop, where the heck are you getting this nonsense data? The wind in New Orleans has shifted from the sw to the nnw during the day. The pressure in New Orleans for the past 10 hours goes like this... 1017 1018 1018 1018 1018 1019 1019 1019 1019 1019.
well there is a thunderstorm just north of new orleans, and a trough
isobar5, there is a shortwave approaching your area from the NE. Also, if you go to this site Link, you will see there is a surface trough moving south towards your area. That will explain the drop in surface pressure.
30.05 is still really high anyways
its worth a lot isobar it indicates ther is no high over the gulf right now and the front from the north is going to be a major player..........
if this discussion is about the storm hitting new orleans its not going to so dont worry
Just an observation Stormtop, you said the pressure dropped to 30.05in. . .a 7mb drop in 10 hours. It did drop to 30.05in, but that was from 30.12in. . .0.07in drop and only about 2mb.
because isobar like i been saying all along the winds have switched to the se and ther is no high over the vcentral gulf like alec is saying..it does not show up in the water vapor loops...that would stand out trust me...
dont look at satellite, look at surface observationsbecause satellites play tricks on you if your looking for something discreet
This shortwave approaching from the NE would it have any affect on the developing weather? Seems to me it would cause a weakness in the High pressure.
i live in new orleans and the winds are out the se ..thepressure is 30.05 and falling,,,hawk where do you live and where are you getting this false info...im looking at the local weather right now and we have no rain its sunny...
51. Alec
Did you hear the earlier comment stormtop that said you cant trust water vapor and satellite pictures to tell whats going on in the atmosphere. You have to go beneath it all and check things in the atmosphere at all layers. Kinda like the ol saying: dont trust a book by its cover. You gotta go deeper to see a clearer picture.
I think the surface high Alec is talking about is on the link I wrote to Isobar. There is a 1015mb high in the East/Central Gulf according to NCEP. I doubt they are wrong on that.
ther is no high isobar and you will soon find that out...keep a close eye on the pressures on the central and ne gulf coast and then we can see whats going on when gert decides to kick in and move.......
30.05 is not a low pressure and pressure changes all the time, in 30 minutes it could be back at 30.12
folmer do you know what highs do? just a question im asking..whats its purpose
56. Alec
Now you havent answered my earlier question stormtop. How sure are you that this system will turn north? i totally dont see it.
The energy behind the shortwave may wind up cutting off in the NE Gulf, but the main energy is moving through the Mid-Atlantic states. Any cutoff upper low would have no effect on TD7 as it is too far away. I think the hardest part of forecasting the tropics is knowing where ridge lines exist. Even to the trained eye, they are very hard to spot. Since tropical cyclones are not steered alone by surface pressures, you must take into account was is going on at 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, and even 250mb. Surface pressure has too much "noise" in it to be used alone in these situations.
ok alec i dont agree with that water vapor in my opinion is the best tool for forecasting and it shows up everything.........
how could it turn north in time to hit new orleans, it will be already inland when the trough gets far enough south, if it even does that to move td 7
just because the pressure drops a little doesn't mean rain or a hurricane is coming LOL!!

There is NO Gert yet...NHC has always called for that possibility but not to make it to the end of the world storm you're hoping for and definitly not to make it as far as LA.

I see you're in NO though...some serious wishcasting dude...please keep it up though...I've found it very amusing...you should seriously think of giving Bastardi a call & hanging out with him...I would definitly pay to watch that forecast!!
folmer did you answer my question? i think you were talking about lows..i asked you what do you think a high is supoposed to do to and area..ok ill put it better what is its main function?
do you know that when bastardi forecasts wrong he blames it on the nhc
63. Alec
Stormtop the thing ISNT A STORM yet and for the last 2 days you've been calling it Gert. It goes like this: tropical wave, then a depression, then a tropical storm, then finally a hurricane. Dont get this outta line.
So what will this shortwave approaching do to the weather here? Will it make it dryer or wetter? We really could use the rain.
hawkeye you never answered me either where are you getting all this mis information especially in new orleans where i live...tell me where are you getting a pressure in the big easy that high and this thunder storm activity we are supposed to have and also the winds out of the nw ..i hate to break it to you hawk the winds are out the se here and the last pressure i looked at was 30.05 and falling....
wetter than drier
Oh goodness.

Storm what is your obsession with wanting to turn storms north and make them head towards the US? It didn't happen with Emily and it won't happen with this one either.
68. Alec
Stormtop i dont see it turning north or becoming a cat 3 anytime soon. I see it going west. Right? Many people on here keep on telling you to consider other sources but you continue to insist water vapor charts are the best. Start considering other sources in combo then youll do alot better predicting these things.
A "high" by definition is a dome of sinking air, while its counterpart, the "low," is an area of rising motion. A high circulates anticyclonically. Usually, you see fair weather, although "dirty" highs can occur. Surface highs and lows come and go as our atmosphere is not static.

Just becuase you don't see an isobar marking off the high in the Gulf, you must remember that isobar charts go by 4mb increments. Meteorologists connect the dots, but can't always close off the surface high as it may not be at the next increment. For instance, the high I pointed out in the Gulf was a 1015mb high, which falls short of the 1016mb increment needed to close it off.

I hope this answers the question.
And to make a larger point yes the storm certainly isn't Gert yet. NHC2005 said something earlier about it already having been Gert when it hit the Yucatan.. and while the windspeeds may have supported this, the wave didn't have a low level center at that time.. hence it wasn't a tropical cyclone.

The depression as of right now is very broad and very disorganized.
71. Alec
Stormtop where are YOU getting this nonsense data from. It seems like every system you have it affecting the coast. Backoff a little
did he really thinkit was gonna hit louisiana?
Did anyone read my interpretation of the elusive 7mb drop? There is only one official reporting station in New Orleans. . .The Lakefront Airport. I believe TWC uses the same exact information.
folmer whatever im not going to argue about something im looking at and what isobar stated i believe 29.92 in mobile
75. Alec
Still havent answered my question stormtop. Where r u getting this info about a turn to the north?????? I disagree with you and i think if the national hurricane center is thinking about putting tropical storm warnings over ne mexico i agree with them more than what your saying. Data and my observations agree it isnt going to be a threat to the central gulf but youve been saying threat threat threat the whole time.
has anyone noticed that td 7 is half the coast? it doesnt have a chance of being Gert now unless it moves north
Looks like Franklin is moving ESE to me. Not sure what that means at the moment. I just know that the NHC has put plenty of caution in their statements about the model with a small system and the complex area it is located in.
half on the coast i mean
79. Alec
Dont worry, it wont move much more north if any, as it continues its track to the mexican coast.
No arguments, just pointing out that there are two ways we measure pressure. Inches and Millibars. You reported a number in inches, then stated it was millibars. Maybe I'm the confused one. No harm. . .
81. Alec
SO what are all ya'lls opinions about where this system in the bay of campeche is going?
the main thing a strong high does is switch your winds to the west and puts a cap on your thunderstorm activity...the forecast for new orleans is increase rain and t storme......winds out the se at 15 mph and right now the pressure is falling from 30.05......i believe im not the only one on here that said pressures were falling....this is facts alec...just because you might think things are changing im disagreeing what you say ....im not disrespecting you im disagreing with you...ok
td 7 will hit anywhere fromsouth texas to the cental mexican coast
85. Alec
Stormtop you gotta consider more than looking for ways for this thing to impact the central coast. Look at the big picture.
lol you people are something i did not say the storm woulsd hit new orleans..what i said was it would be from mogancity to panama city..get the record straight people..
87. Alec
I agree. the convection off of Franklin might make it appear to move more ese but thats the cloud tops expanding in that direction.
thats even more out of the question!!!!!!
Turtlehurricane keep your voice down there may be children listening. :)
stormtrop, do you not like florida?
TD7 is destined for NE Mexico with a fate similar to Brett. When you see a system hugging the coast like that with easterly winds to the north, there isn't much chance for a northward turn. There is no discernable trough close enough to pull it north. At this rate, it may not even make it to Tampico.
92. Alec
The record your holding whatever it is stormtop, isnt painting a pretty picture for us all. It will not hit panama city beach or morgan city. cant you for once admit that you may be off, cause it sure looks like this system is heading for mexico.
the new advisory is out
I agree Franklin, after looking at RAMSDIS, the center is drifting North of East.
its my own forecasting alec i told you the tools i use to forecast a prediction.....i dont use the computers and im tired of writing the same things over and over to you...yes my prediction still stands the cental gulf nothing about a direct hit on new orleans i dont know where you got that i never said that..go back and check all my posts are here..dont say something on this board i havent said...and yes i still disagre with you about it going to mexico...now lets drop it until we see some action going on...
ya the new coordinates show that
97. Alec
And have you ever considered friction with these storms either stormtop? Look at a bigger picture and consider what we are all saying.
in that case stormtrop, i forecast td 7 to hit japan
alec the system hasnt begun to get started yet...you should hold back and wait until theaction begins and then we will comment...i just dont AGREE WITH YOU....
100. Alec
I never ever said that you said it was going to new orleans. Get it straight man, you just dont budge even when i say anything stormtop.
It doesn't matter if Stormtop is right or wrong. The purpose of this blog is for people to share their thoughts RIGHT OR WRONG. Everyone just needs to respect each other and let's get on with it.
did anyone see the forecast track? it doesnt even show this thing hitting texas
103. Alec
That was very funny turtlehurricane! :)
lets discuss that wave south of that dust
105. Alec
I know but its kinda hard when stormtop just seems to think i have not a clue about what im saying.
that wave looks healthy
sounds like that wave way out there could develop and hit florida (very long range).
110. Alec
So in order to distingish our opinions you stormtop think this thing's going to hit somewhere between panama city beach and morgan city. Ok i believe its headed toward mexico. Now this bickering can stop.
hummmmmmmm rain all week predicted must be a real strong high.......ok ill be back later gang everyone chill and put other things in the equation...lets get everyones opionin on this board...
112. Alec
Now aside from that lets all forecast this Franklin to hit antarctica. lol
the gfs turns into a tropical stormish thing near the bahamas in 144 hours but then again i dont use computer models
it into*
that dust might inhibit it
116. Alec
I know you said that last comment to mock me stormtop. And i will chill and hope you stormtop can come up with your own national hurricane center.
we mocked him about a million timeseven though his forecast was totally hype
so does anyone have an idea whats going on with the climate and saying its 2005 doesnt count
119. Alec
"its 2005" lol
120. SEFL
Every one can have an opinion, but stormtop doesn't get facts right. He says it is supposed to rain all week in NO and the wind is out of the southeast. All you have to do is go to NWS New Orleans to see the forecast. 10% chance of rain and winds out of w shifting to nw. I don't get it.
ive been tracking hurricanes my entire life and right now we should be seeing arlene or bret
am I the only that thinks stormtop makes these outlandish predictions just to get a rise out of people on these blogs. Just take his post as what it is, a good laugh. I actually would like to see him post more if anything. As for this new depression, I'm no expert but I think it will go in somewhere along the Mexican coast.
thats what i was thinking, but i like arguing about weather so i didnt care
so have any of you ever been to the nhc?
W/O opening a can of worms, global warming induced by man is probably responsible for at least some of the effects on the climate. Cyclic climate changes also occur and it is difficult to distinquish between them. Latest New Scientist issue states that the vast majority of climatologists believe that man made releases of green house gasses is a real issue in the climate changes we are seeing. It is the political machinery in place that down plays this notion.
Posted By: turtlehurricane at 9:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2005.

thats what i was thinking, but i like arguing about weather so i didnt care

Neither do I, I could use a good laugh, and I actually find it quite entertaining.
Okay just got back from Galveston - so hot and humid - Gert will go into Mexico MAYBE to the coast of Texas but that's as far as she's gonna come. The clouds told me.
(didn't see no rattlers though)
I'm beginning to think that FALLING barometers make tempers RISE
global warming is actually cyclical and its been hotter in the past then it is now but, i think man has added to it a little
Probably TD7 will crash into Mexico as advertised but it is fun to figure out different possibilities.
130. Alec
never been there but want to be a hurricane forecaster. I maybe could set up a national hurricane service for Stormtop so i can watch him recruit all those that think every storm will hit the US.
I agree with alex980. . he is only on here to see how much he can upset us. But hey, is fun.

Anyway, the soon to be, well, might be "Gert" is looking more promissing. However, with only 48 hours (tops) to live, this storm is going to reach minor, if not medium tropical storm status and make landfall. The rain will be the only issue, and only because Emily dumped so much on the region only a few days ago. But then again, with such saturated grounds, only small wind gusts can knock over some trees.

Look for the wave out in the atlantic to slowly jog northward, however not developing at all over the next 3-4 days. A depression is possible after that, however the dust filled low should keep it from becoming much of a storm. Its going to be at LEAST a week before we see another major storm starting to develop. Of course, after one week, we can not make any more predictions. Who knows what might come off that African coast.
the fact of the matter is, ive been at the nhc and all they seem to care about is models. Once in a while i tell them what i think and they say the model disagrees, im usually right though when it comes to forecasting.
td 7 lookslike its gonna explode because it has such a good structure it willprobably be gert at 11pm
Sounds like a cliched disaster movie. The STHC has issued a hurricane warning for SE LA but know body listens because of the agencies track record. But this time...... seriously this is both fun and informative. Going agains't NHC is a losing bet but every now and then you may be right.
Havent you guys figured StormTop out yet? Geez, he's transparent. Has to be right, no matter what. Sad. If he gets no response, he will stop typing. I check in here about every 6-8 hrs, and the same stupid arguing is going on. This is my last visit. No offense to the rest of you and your great posts and to Dr. Jeff.
136. Alec
I believe the system will hit mexico too as a minimal tropical storm.

Stormtop interpretation: That thing is darn going to be a cat 5 with a circulation covering the entire gulf heading for the central coast.
Franklin is definately drifting to the ESE. If it keeps going that direction could this front that moving south actually miss it? Something to think about.
I think its amazing how convection from the wave out in the center of the atlantic is almost down to the equator. So dang far south. Definately zero chance of development in the near future.
I've thought about it but if you look at the high resolution loop on RAMSDIS you can see the center drifting slightly N. of E. However, for some reason I believe this one has more interesting potential then TD7. Esp. if it does move more S.
the front already got it and it is going northeast, just look at the coordinates
I agre punkasshans, the main convection is to far S but the main circulation may be N of that convection. At least what looks like potential circulation. It really depends on where and if it develops.
once a storm formed at 3 degrees latitude near singapore, it became a major hurricane with circulation on both sides of the equato, thus nothing is to far south
It just looks like the main convection is heading for S. america. I still think this area has got a good chance becoming something.
144. K8e1
Stormtop has some serious issues if you want my opinion...sometimes people have delusions and they really believe what the delusion tells them....humor him
why are we still talking about stormtrop?
I understand what you are saying, that storms do develop that close to the equator, however it is VERY rare in the atlantic. The pacific is another story. Just my opinion.

Anyway, the NHC is saying its possible Franklin stalls out after 72 hours and drifts back south. Franklin could be around for a very long time if it decides to do that. However, still no threat to the US.
the nhc forecast sounds illogical, chances are the entire circulation will be sped northeast and a midlevel circulation wont stay behind,but ive never seen any forecast like this before so it could be possible
148. Alec
I agree. the thing might stall then be picked up and shot out to sea by another shortwave.
Dont forget Jeanne last year. It did a nice loop out a little further east than where Franklin is today.

150. lippy
I don't know boys, TD 7 is about the sorriest looking tropical system I've ever seen. Things can change pretty fast, but I half expect the thing to just fizzle out, and we'll all be left wondering if it was ever worthy of TD status in the first place. Anyway, I'd say the only chance it has of getting north of Tampico is if strengthens fast, and how.
have any of you ever heard of a polar low, their warm core and look like hurricanesthe winds are hurricane force sometimes also

you are lookin at steve gregory's blog arent you? and yes, i read about it in there.
its in there?
thats cool so i guess you guys know about it

there is a lot of convection down there. however, i agree, it does look very scrappy. it is going to have to grow substatially over the next 12-24 hours if it has any chance. I personally believe we will see a border depression/tropical storm within 24 hours, with a weak tropical storm, with no more than 50 mph winds, at landfall. Of course, if the storm doesnt get its act together in 12-24 hours, forget everything i just said.
td 7 is starting to get more organized it seems
157. Alec
That system in the gulf will probably be more of a rain maker to mexico than anything else.
one thing i have noticed though is these storms are hitting areas in pairs
it seems that areas are staying favorable with little change over the atlantic. this results in double or tripple landfalls within the same location. the yucatan itself has seen 5 tropical systems move either over or just next to it. Thats a lot for already this early in the season. (3, including the current system, have moved directly over the yucatan)
160. lippy
punk - yeah, you're right, there's a lot of convection, and I wouldn't be shocked to see it strengthen. Wouldn't be too surprised if it just sort of diappeared and then reappeared fifty miles inland, either. Kind of like "TS" Grace in 2003.
well, you all have fun observing the storms. i have to leave once agian, i really wish i had internet back at my apartment

162. Alec
As it stands now td #7 is heading toward mexico and there's not much of a chance for it to become a hurricane since it will make it to mexico pretty soon. Franklin is still forecasted to turn out to sea. Well itll be interesting to see bright sunsets next week if that saharan dust swirl heads toward us. Still too far out to even speculate right now.
One item to mention is that June and July have a very poor corellation with the rest of the season as far as activity. But since all storms this year have been of tropical wave origin, them maybe it does(often june/july storms aren't). Also be glad you weren't in the early 30's one year(i forget which) had 22 storms. these things just go in cycle, as does the landfall areas also. But, if we get above the alphabet we start with greek leters I believe, or do we go with the old Able,Baker,charlie,etc.
164. deb1
Franklin doesn't look like it's holding together all that well. I wonder if it will survive.
For TD7, it was a bit of a surprise to me to see it listed. I think you made a good prediction there, mfolmer. I doubt if it will hit the coast, given it is practically hugging it as it is, anywhere close to where Emily hit, and probably a couple of hundred miles south of it. Always assuming it even makes it to a TS.
That TD7 weather system doesn't look to be the only bit of weather though to be crossing the Yucatan and coming out into the gulf. What about the weather crossing out of the northern Yucatan into the central gulf? The high across the southern coast of the US will probably stop anything developing there from going directly north, but what about to the NW? Then there could be a chance of something developing and coming ashore north of where Emily hit, maybe Southern Texas, rather than Mexico.
that piece of weather is part of td 7
166. deb1
turtlehurricane, are you sure they are they same weather system? The weather in question has only just started to cross into the gulf of Mexico now at 22/23N and is travelling north rather than west. The TD7 is around 20N and looks to be tracking WNW. they don't look like they'll be joining up any time soon.
167. deb1
The weather i was talking about is currently still east of 90W.
im sure, its going north because it is rotating around the storm
its just a feeder band
170. deb1
turtlehurricane, it is rotating, but clockwise, not anticlockwise. The storm, such as it is, buried along the coast, is rotating anti clockwise. what do you mean exactly when you say it is rotating around the storm?
ill check
172. deb1
I don't mean the weather to the north of the TD already in the bay. That does indeed look like it is starting to rotate anticlockwise and may well be part of TD 7. I mean the patch of weather than is still half over the Yucatan.
the storm is ragged at the moment but the feeder band is rotating counter clockwise around the center of the storm which is just south of the band.
174. deb1
And what's with a name like Gert anyways for a storm? It doesn't sound particularly beautiful and majestic, which is how I think of storms!
ya thats what i see
their running out of names
177. deb1
Wouldn't it be good if all this water vapour moving into the gulf stays nice and benign, doesn't form any storm at all, drifts over a large area of the southern US then rains nice and steady and breaks the drought, no roofs blown off, flooding or anything catastrophic. Just good steady rain....
178. Alec
I dont see anything out there in the Atlantic right now that would affect the US anytime soon. Hope there is a lull because since around the beginning of July to now, theres either been a td,ts,or hurricane in ocean.
it will be like that but, it will probably be in mexico
the cape verde wave will probably break the lull if there ever is one
181. rick1
hello im new at this but i think everyones comments are good ones
182. Alec
hey rick1 welcome to the blog!
183. rick1
thanks alec
blog seems to be another name for chatroom in my opinion
185. rick1
it might be turtle but the topics are alot more interesting in here
186. Alec
rick1, you should speak to stormtop on here he's really amusing
ya that person wes dillusional
franklin seems to be growing some new convection. Also, does anyone know what the swirl over south florida is? its on the water vapor
189. Alec
He had this thing about always making storms into massive end of the world killers heading for the US.
i dont think hes ever coming back after my awesome japan joke
191. Alec
Yeah that thing is an upper level low. it seems to be sandwiching Franklin with a trough to its north and a bermuda high to its east. Look at the water vapor loop. it looks like a shortwave trough is diving southeastward towards Franklin.
ya, that pretty much seals the deal for Franklin not to be a U.S. storm
193. Alec
that joke was pretty funny :) made me choke i was laughing so hard. stormtop would probably drive Joe Bastardi crazy
Another Alicia in the works? If I remember right a low formed along the tail end of a front in the eastern gulf, eventually becoming Alicia and causing me (and many others)weeks of tree cutting, fence building, and shingle replacing.
remember my comment about bastardi?
is it safe to get in the water...
boiredfish, the gulf is clear besides td 7
198. Alec
now it appears that blob of depression #7 isnt looking so healthy. Looks quite ugly to be perfectly honest. Definitly not in the stages to be an end of the world doom storm
199. Alec
yeah i do it was funny too.
it never looked healthy
hey alec you mentioned wanting to be a meteorologist and do hurricanes forcast,Are you in school now?..if not I need to give you a link
its true about bastardi, one day when i was at the nhc all of the forecasters were really angry because he threatened to sue them over his wrong forecast
203. Alec
I probably should have said it with the "now". my mistake. it sure hasnt been healthy all along.
204. Alec
correction last post: "shouldnt"
205. rick1
i was reading what he was saying about td7 earlier i dont agree with him
Here ALec...check this out,I was there in the earky 80s before this was built...but hey they let me come and play occasionaly..

208. rick1
what stormtop was saying about td7 hiting panama city
209. Alec
well, i wonder what happened to rick1 hope i didnt scare him off with the stormtop comments. If stormtop was right about these mega killers id probably be livin underground in a steel bunker.
This thing is in bad shape it dont even look its a td but no more than a wave it seems,it is looking like it could fall apart but you never know.
211. rick1
you didnt run me off alec
can u believe though that bastardi wanted to sue the nhc over his bad forecast
213. Alec
rick1 stormtop was practically calling it the end of the world as we know it. He said earlier he saw this thing being as big as the gulf and heading towards panama city.
i know stormtop said that that td 7 could become a cat 3 I mean come on thsts just goin too far
215. rick1
well i live in florida,and i dont see it coming here
Thats rediculus he wanted to sue over his bad forecast...........
Hello Jed,.check that link out I posted,you said you planned on going to college for meteorology this is where the Air Force sends the flight crew for weater training,its full of Hurricane Hunters..
I live near tampa florida
well i think its going to be a cat 6 the size of mars and its gonna make landfall in every city on Earth
LOL rick..If TD seven goes to florida..I will never ever read another weather map....
221. rick1
ocala florida here
222. Alec
outrocket i want to be a meteorologist and be a hurricane forecaster. im in school at FSU. ive had the fun of tracking these things for yrs.
ya jedkins, everyone there including me was really upset with that
224. rick1
maybe if everyone sent a fan to mexico it would turn it away but i dont see that happening lol
I knew it...somehow...LOL good luck with your studies there.Great school....
226. Alec
outrocket those jokes are getting so funny youre almost killing me man :)
227. Alec
i meant to say the earlier post to turtlehurricane.
well...there is a lighter side to weather,what can I say..
230. Alec
im not forecasting this blob in the gulf to do much but drool and ooze over the mexican coastline
..ok ya heard it here....TD7 wont even make weenicane status(cat1)
232. Alec
Yeah the lighter side is calm breezes and a serene atmosphere. Hope it doesnt mean gales that stretch out 400 miles
has anyone seen franklins flare up yet?
234. Alec
Maybe stormtop watched the day after tomorrow movie too much.
alec...that about killed me,man i hit the books on that one...stormtop is stormtop,if he would only study as his post make us do....LOL he may learn something,and ya know..I think he is,so be patient..LOL
236. Alec
Franklin seems to have flared up indeed but look at the water vapor loop it sure looks like a trough is swinging down to meet it.
i planning on becoming a meteorologist(God willing) not sure where i will go for college though,I'll know once I finsh high school first,yes I am young but that DOESN'T matter though dont pay attention to my age.
we wont jed...did ya check out that link i posted,no time like now to plan for later...
239. Alec
Its fun talkin to a bunch of people and jedkins thats my desire too. I want to be a forecaster and improve the forecasts of hurricanes.
I have other hobbys boyscouts, bodybuilding and I also have a small intrest in repitiles(2 snakes).Well you get well rounded Idead of who I am I rekon y'all know me now,my weather information doesn't over hype or is too conservative.
alec..somehow I think you may be the one that improves the forecast percentage rate ,you are on the right track..keep digging man
242. Alec
I love reptiles too. Especially the crocs cause they're so big and sneaky.
This year is incredible and does not care about the rules of a *normal year* are i mean emily 155 mph?Based on what Iknow that isn't supposed to be even remotely possible in july.
me too
franklin makes no sense, sure looks like the eye is far south of where the NHC has it to me
246. Alec
Well i wonder if the pressure has dropped below 200 millibars, no still pretty high. lol
i have 30 turtles
248. rick1
alec i like gators myself the orange and blue kind ( school joke) lol
249. Alec
Yeah if its this bad now maybe stormtop is right about the big one to come. lol
Wow thats a lot of turtle.
Why don't all of you give Stormtop a break. I enjoy his forecasts and I would hate to see your criticism and joking cause him to refrain from expressing his opinion. I also disagree with some of you but I do not joke and criticize.
new advisory still has 30 mph winds
253. Alec
no wonder youre called turtlehurricane. Do turtles spin around in circles when they're on their backs? probably same goes for a hurricane it spins too.
stormtrops forecast was so off it was a joke
255. Alec
well that pretty much does it for the td#7. may not become gert after all
I have seen hurricanes surprise everyone so no forecast is a joke until it has been proven otherwise.
I wonder if turtles spin on their back in opposite direction south of the equator...
well, all it takes is one flare up to become a tropical storm so its not out of the question
ya some forecasts are jokes
260. Alec
haha outrocket, probably. ive never seen. It would be pretty hard getting a galapagos turtle on its back.
Yes franklin will drop 400 milibars and reach max sustain winds in the eye wall of 300 mph with gusts to 400 and produces f5 tornados thruout the storm 400-500 mph winds and 150 ft storm surge with hurricane force wind field of 1500 miles across with category 3 strength of 1000 miles across an eyewall 100 miles across then it will loop back around towards florida and be more devestating then the most powerfull nuclear weapon.
well my turtles dont spin but they move around in groups like the cyclones this year
This is tongue in cheek referring to old folks tales about the weather, for those that haven't seen this before!

UPDATE on the RAWM (Readily Available Wildlife Model) (tm), s of ohhhhhh about 7:30 PM CDT from way south Texas.
It looked like rain some around 2-ish, but now we have clear skies, about a 15 MPH wind, and hot and humid.

The ceniza (purple sage) has begun to show a lil bit of blooming, but just barely which according to my grandad, means not much rain (profuse blooms mean a gullywasher is coming, but the birds are actin normal, the dog isn't nervous, and I haven't seen a rattlesnake or turtle in the road all day!

This leads me to expect that in spite of predicted 60% chance of rain romorrow, and TD#7 or whatever it is called out southeast of us, we are not going to have any heavy weather here.

It is probably all going to New Orleans I bet!
i disagree with jedkins, the wind will be 310 mph
265. deb1
turtlehurricane, yes I see what you mean, - the bit of the weather I thought was different has decided to move west and join up with TD7. Good call.
266. Alec
its very important to not disregard a hurricane's possible other option, but when the nhc, weather channel, models, charts, and other experts say about the same thing, its a pretty darn possibility that it will go as forecasted.
But the point is Turtle that I do not want you to cause Stormtop to stop his forecast even if you feel they are a joke. Please just be nice.
my turtles are hissing, theres probably going to be a hurricane in a week or so
thanks deb1
I have also seen all the experts be wrong.
271. Alec
I disagree with turtlehurricane, a whoppin 6000,0000mph hurricane is so likely the next few hours.
ill raise you 129,000 mph
273. Alec
Now i hear that Franklin could jump over west africa and hit madagascar.
Alec and Turtle are quite the comedic pair. I can see that you guys think you are the experts here.
on to serious blogging, Ithink that nhc forecast with the seperation of the 2 levels of cyclone might be correct, look at the water vapor
276. Alec
could it turn into a massive dust storm and come back with the whole saharan desert?
that would vaporize a concreate complex in less than a second.
Yeah, Alec, but it's gonna hit alaska. ;)
ahh...FLP,we all like stormtop and nobody here wants to run him off(well maybe a few)..I look forward to his same predictions on every storm. He adds color and I hope he is right just once...because that will be a great day here...it may go down in the history books of this BLOG..
if that happens couldn't a new low form under the stationary mid-level circulation?
281. Alec
Probably not. not based on my pressure chart readings.
well, when a storm hits the U.S hell be right
ok thats good
and as far as the expert here,well just look whos blog we are in...Thats the expert.
285. Alec
I may be need to help the oil rigs in the gulf if a cat 10 hurricane was to come. We'd practically see a jump in oil prices by 2000%.
286. Alec
Now franklin doesnt seem to want to go. it just keeps stallin. Will probably be picked up. I hope. if not it could linger off the coast till christmas.
it would be like the tour de france on every highway in america
I think his forecast are colorful too, that's why I enjoy reading them. I just hope he is wrong on this one.
Yes but experts that aren't out giving forecasts to the public dont always have to be sirious
its only been here a day or two
i give forecasts to my neighberhood
I just want franklin to stay around long enough to interact with that saharan dust storm...That would be interesting...
so i must be very very serious
294. Alec
I hope the panhandle of FL is recovering form ivan and dennis. too bad they had to come in in less than a year.
outrocket, it would just kill franklin
296. Alec
Or we could shoot a rocket at it and hope it vaporizes
ya sending concentrated heat into a tropical cyclone to destroy it sounds feasible
The NHC has been very good this year and they have to be serious. As long as Stormtop doesn't put someone's life in danger, like telling someone not to worry when they should, there is no harm. I don't think all of you would let that happen anyway.
most likely turtle way too much condensation nuclei than it could handle.Would be like seeding may rain itself out quick..or....LOL
300. Alec
Well in that case, stormtop is so nice to warn us about every hurricane.
The last year has been quite trying. I am thinking about moving.
302. Alec
in that every one is fully warned.
stop defending stormtrop, hes just a prankster
304. Alec
im glad hurricanes dont have unlimited condensation nuclei or else the whole planet would be a cat 5 hurricane
that would be bad
306. Alec
the only problem is when stormtop overwarns us about every hurricane, many people may freak out
alec I did Pyro for years with Pyro productions..even had one shell attract lightning just before a storm at a show I was shooting,it set 12 other 4" rounds off..dang near scared me to death .If you want that rocket I got some good solid fuel designs.I have a rocket built now that I had planned to put a real time meteoroligical package in..but it hangs on wall..One day..maybe..
td 7 sure doesn't look worthy of being called a depression
309. Alec
I may start having nightmares about a huge polar low sneeking up on us sucking the n hemisphere out like a vacuum.
a balloon is alot easier than a rocket
Well Turtle, since StormTop is not here and your jokes are not as colorful as his forecast, I will be leaving you good people. Have a good night.
stormtrop would enjoy it
i think FlPanhandle was stormtrop
314. Alec
a new way instead of dropping dropsondes into hurricanes would be shooting up met rockets from the recon station so they dont have to waste fuel using a jet.
now they just waste fuel in a rocket
316. Alec
could it be a disguise?
ya i think so
318. Alec
i mean what if flpanhandle was stormtop. Could he have 10 aliases?
319. Alec
that would spook me to death
why not?
Yea agree there...but something about getting that package to 100K..very fast is cool..I use barometric sensors that sample the atmoshere on the way up..then it reads when the rocket is stopped at apex,deploys a drogue chute,then smaples the atmoshere till it matches the reading of 800 ft. and deploys the main chute...beats walking or driving miles to recover it..
322. Alec
because "thats the way the cookie crumbles"
i like rockets to
324. Alec
Now as far as forecasts go with td#7 i think its going to make history as the puniest depression ever.
especially when they crash or something like that
ya even the depression last year that was an open wave was cooler
327. Alec
Rockets are cool until they launch the wrong way and hit a crater in the earth as big as mt st helens. Then it would be plain disasterous.
Ok...see all you good people later..its Lightning here,Im heading outside to try to catch an image of lightning on my digital camera...If it dont catch me and the tripod first..LOL..have a great evening ,see you after the storm.
329. Alec
Those storms are cool especially when they look like a hybrid comma shape which happens occasionally.
330. Alec
when do you think stormtop will come back on? I wonder what he has to say about that dying deppression in the gulf.
ya when those come over in south florida its like a hurricane, sometimes even trees come down
stormtrop is probably putting up shutters as the pressure drops to 30.04 in louisiana
333. Alec
The eyes of those hurricanes are fascinating. They look like walls with clouds perfectly arranged. Ive heard only a few hurricane hunters have crashed in history.
ya i hope i dont end up being one of those, i might go up next year as a guest
335. Alec
but at the rate he was saying, it should be all the way down to 21.04
youve read the hugo story on this site right?
that would be low
338. Alec
the hugo story? briefly explain it.
You know that the eye of hurricane andrew had at one point was almost a mathmatically exact circle,thats amazing!
340. lippy
Wow. This blog has turned into an episode of Beavis and Butthead, but not as funny. So long.
dr.jeff used to be a hunter, and he quit because his plane almost crashed in hugo
342. Alec
Thats weird, in that case I almost fell down crossing the highway. I guess i should never cross a highway ever again.
HOW do you know ive never heard of doctor jeff before untill I became a WU member a couple months ago,I think that jeff migh just be an expert thats not an official expert,maybe Im completely wrong just a suggestion.
344. Alec
sorry i got cut off from the this web site turtlehurricane.
345. Alec
seems like im talkin to myself now.
Did the front miss picking Franklin up?
I saw the worst movie on Sci-Fi channel earlier today which featured a 612 mb hurricane and the line "The winds are up to 595 knots! If the knots get higher than the milibars the reaction will cause the hurricane to become permenant like the Great Red Spot! We'll never be rid of it!"
348. Alec
No. the vapor loop shows a trough swinging down from the se and will pick up Franklin.
I wonder if Franklin will be like Kyle in 2002.
350. Alec
Well imagine what a 102mb hurricane would do. That thing would blow the whole atmosphere away. lol
351. Alec
What do you guys make of that puny depression in the gulf? Sure looks ragged.
man my eyes must be playing tricks on me, they claim the eye of frankie is still going ENE when i am certainly seeing a different eye south of their point and headed southeast


check out the tropical forecast points and look where all the convection is
353. Alec
well take that comment back it may become a weak gert by tomorrow, nothing huge though
354. Alec
richandcoup, your probably tired. I get foggy when im tired. no offense though :)
ahhh the discussion says it is decoupling

latest microwave image shows that the low- and mid-level centers of
Franklin are becoming detached. There is a ring of deep convection
...Resembling an eyewall...marking a well defined middle level
circulation. However...the cloud lines show a surface center
displaced to the northeast. This center location is consistent with
the latest recon fix. This decoupling has been the scenario
forecast by global models...mainly by the GFS... during the past
day or so.
I read somewhere earlier in the blog where someone said that Joe Bastardi threatened to sue the NHC over an incorrect forecast, was that actually true or just someone pulling my leg. If it is true, what could he possible sue for.
gets glasses..Looks,cant find the center but it's in there,Dont .I think that trough sharpened and what we are seeing is maybe what some have predicted, that the low level circulation may be starting to seperate from the convection.What we may be witnessing is the Death of Franklin and his remains will be cast upon the sea to the NE.
358. Alec
Well that comment about bastardi was made a long time ago. I dont recall.
359. Alec
Franklin is just an ole stubborn baby. Just hangs on as hard as possible so it can give east FL a headache, even though its not heading there.
hat bhjkdurytp9jts99ol;zzzzztaat iio juyythfg byg88
361. Alec
What is that supposed to mean goldenhine? is it some type of language you created?
362. Alec
probably did that in your sleep. Dream language i suppose.
Alec...may I ask what your background is relative to meteorology? Do you practice professionally? For the group....it seems it would be nice to have a chatroom dedicated to dicussions like this in a realtime setting. Any ideas or comments about this?
can someone tell me what seeding a hurricane is suppose to do>? in 1970, celia hit the texas coast and we were told here that they had seeded the hurricane and it went WRONG.
what exactly is the purpose of seeding a hurricane and what do they seed it with>
365. Alec
Yeah if your still around. Now im getting a degree in meteorology to track hurricanes. I've seen trends and understand the meteorology of hurricane tracking but always could learn more. I go to FSU because of the great meteorology program. It would be cool to get these guys together to talk real hard core hurricanes. Chat rooms are a great thing. You probably saw earlier us having fun making jokes about weather. Thats a cool name "yesterway"
366. Alec
Hurricane seeding is a process where they pour out dry ice into the clouds to try to stimulate the precipitation process to form rain.(also used silver iodine aerosols) They stimulate the growth of ice particles which in turn induce rain. Now it was a failure because the process of trying to reduce the storm's strength didnt work. the storms were so big the experiment wasnt conclusive and didnt seem to affect them that much.
367. Alec
They thought that causing another eyewall to surround the main eyewall and having it contract would choke the hurricane, thus weakening it. The dry ice or silver iodine aerosols were to induce rain and help form another eyewall around the main eyewall but ended up not working.
Alec..thanx for the comment about my nic. Long story behind it. I am a Florida native and FSU met grad. I am practicing at a water management district as a hydro/met last 15 years. I am enjoying these blogs and will begin to throw in some opinions soon.
369. Alec
We really could use another opinion on here. You should have been here when we were trying to convince stormtop of his erroneous predictions of this system in the gulf. He insisted all our data and everything was wrong. I told everybody on here from day one that this system would hit the mexican coast and it looks like it will after all. Stormtop needs a lesson on what highs do. No offense to him but his predictions were totally ridiculous. He has this thing where every storm has to hit the US syndrome.
370. Alec
Well its late and i hear my bed calling. Great talkin to you guys today! it was fun and informative. ill try to get back on here tomorrow afternoon sometime to discuss Franklin and the death of that system in the bay of Campeche(which wont happen till it hits mexico).

WEll here's my comment for the night...If my name was Gert, I'd be depressed too - what a rotten name for a whatever it is...
Anyone following the storms up in Minneapolis/St. Paul?
Guess I'm the only one on tonight
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005



She's still going into Mexico
375. cjnew

Just wondering...Say franklins LLC headed NE and the MLC stays behind could it reform a new LLC and once again be a tropical storm? Also if that were to happen would it keep the name franklin or get a new name? just curious.
376. cjnew
well,Im going to bed. if anyone has the answers to my questions please post them and i'll check tomorrow. if not i'll re-post it again tomorrow when its more busy. thanx
good morning from south Texas, ya'll....

Looking at the Gulf infrared animated loop this morning. (6am cst) Does anyone else see a cyclonic (clockwise) circulation when looking at the entire gulf region? It looks to me like the storms over the panhandle of Florida are moving SSW and Gert is moving NNW around a high that is generally over the Texas/Louisiana border....IF that is so, won't it drag Gert towards Texas more? Or is it just too early in the morning and I am seeing things?
On another note, mostly clear skies high humidity and quite warm here this morning (78). It's too early to go out and observe animals and wildlife tho to update the readily available wildlife model (RAWM)! LOL
Good morning wildhorse,in eastern nc here. I see what you are talking about but with Gert so close to mexico, it would have to move due north to threaten Texas and that high will not let it. It seems to be at the bottom of the high which is why the wnw movement.
Hot and humid here too. Suppose to hit 95 today through wednesday. Cannot wait for fall.
Several models now seem to show Gert bouncing aroung just onshore or offshore of the Mex. coast for a couple days. Then who knows where it's off to.....
Well its quite refreshing to see a couple of storms behaving themselves, Franklin looks like it's heading out to sea not affecting anyone and Gert looks like its going to hit Mexico but only as a minimal TS. Can't ask for too much more than that, plus nothing else on the horizon............for now anyways. Hopefully the season that started as a lion will go out as a lamb but I'm not holding my breath.
Yeah, way to early in the season to think that.
Are those waves in the Central Atlantic look like they could develop? Saharan Dust......????
383. BA
I enjoy reading the comments but STORMTOP's comments always seem to be wild and wrong. I find it interesting that he never does any post analysis of his always "way out in left field" predictions. It would be nice to read why you were so wrong on your predictions since you stand by them so firmly.
That wave coming into the caribbean looks impressive. Its really blown up over the last few hours.
Are you refering to the one near Graneda? We'll have to wait and see if it can maintain itself.
gert is a forecasters worse nightmare...the storm will stall and meander around the gulf for 48 hours strengthing to hurricane force and then taking a track towards the north...gert will not move inland in mexico because of being blocked by the mountains and another big factor there is no high to push it like they had for emily...also tropical storms do not behave very well like strong hurricanes...texas i would keep a watchful eye to the sky because you could really get dumped by this...just my opinion and lets see what happens..in the water vapor charts clearly gert has nothing to guide her inland..she is srtictly going on the trade winde right now..i look for gert in the next 2 advisories to slow to a crawl and start moving erratically....this one bears watching for the entire gulf coast..
Last night, on TWC they called these storms that hit Minneapolis "dereches" or something I couldn't hear the word
Does anyone know the correct term??? Was it like straightline winds as opposed to tornadoes?
WILDHORSE - Extremely hot, humid overcast here in Houston but my cats are behaving so it may rain late this afternoon LOL
I see the censors are up and working this AM,someone asked a question,I answered it..was opinion..no foul laguage or anything like that,but the post disappeard along with the opinion.....Yet they let the ones who BASH and INSULT others stay on blog...so I may blog here again and I may not..I will read Jeff Masters BLOG because I respect his views,but I sure dont like his editors who block post with NO explanation...they should atleast have to email you and explain...this may be my last POST...I have enjoyed all of your comments but now wonder how many we dont see..I will keep serching till I find a site that allows free speech and us weather folk to say as please...
Oh Outrocket don't leave - maybe there was a blip in the blog -
i had cindy right on the money and also dennis..yes i mesesed up on emily ..i had franklin right on the money ...so now we are on gert lets see how i do here...the only one i blew was emily..i wonder how manty the nhc blew with all the eqipment they have to forecast these storms...i dont think you want to get in to the last 3 years with the nhc and the lawsuits...if you dont like my comments dont read them...i dont see you going out onthe ledge pal...
You know stromtop! I was thinking the exact same thing, except I think it will stall out a bit longer probably closer to 72 hours and head more towards the Tampa Bay area or perphaps the Pensacola area ala Dennis.
well ba would you like to comment on that are you hiding in the cracks in the wall...
Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:05 PM GMT on July 24, 2005.

i had cindy right on the money and also dennis..yes i mesesed up on emily ..i had franklin right on the money ...so now we are on gert lets see how i do here...the only one i blew was emily..i wonder how manty the nhc blew with all the eqipment they have to forecast these storms...i dont think you want to get in to the last 3 years with the nhc and the lawsuits...if you dont like my comments dont read them...i dont see you going out onthe ledge pal...

Couldn't agree more, the NHC just keep getting the track of these storms wrong despite all their equipment. I know it's a tough job but they need to smarten up ASAP
i love how stove top creates 5 or 6 different id's a day to confirm what he is saying..these mysterious one time a day posters only talk about stove top and how he is right and how we should listen to him...an incredible coincidence that all of our one time posters happen to agree with him
395. BA
stormtop, don't take it so hard...I am not a meterologist and I don't make predictions.

I didn't say to stop posting, I would just like to read more technical details on why you predict things you do and then when you are wrong, why you were wrong.

But they are your posts, you don't have to do any of the above.

Again, keep posting. I don't plan on making any predictions any time soon.
the steering currents are very weak and this storm gert already has 2 centers..this could be interesting if it strengthens the water temps are in the upper 80s down in the bay of campeche......
look ba i dont use a cone that covers the whole caribbean sea or the gulf of mexico..if you want and example just check the people who were caught off guard with charley last year...the nhc really blew that one and that was a major hurricane...i can keep going if you want me to but i would take up the whole board in the last 3 years im referring to....if you dont want to post comments ba dont jump on me trying to tell people where they think the storm is going..i hold no punches i tell it like i see it...i will never use a cone a child could do what they are doing and they still miss some even with the big cone they use...
Posted By: richandcoup at 3:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2005.

i love how stove top creates 5 or 6 different id's a day to confirm what he is saying..these mysterious one time a day posters only talk about stove top and how he is right and how we should listen to him...an incredible coincidence that all of our one time posters happen to agree with him

So what you're trying to say is that stormtop has multiple handles just to prove people actually agree with him? Next you're going to tell me his predictions are usually way off, Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
399. WSI
Hey EmmyRose... here is some good information on Derechos...


Hope it helps.
richandcoup you need to get a life pure and simple...the next thing you will be saying the aliens are invading earth...you are one sick individual...i am the only stormtop and i have no other names..i dont have the time to play games im not a kid like you...
401. WSI
Well a cone is the prudent way to forecast it. So many variables factor into how a cyclone moves. It would be irresponsible to pick one place without a larger cone if the storm warranted it. If the NHC doesn't know for sure where they storm is going to go, I don't want them telling a bunch of people they are in the clear when they aren't just because someone doesn't want them using a larger cone. Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. Within reason of course.

If I remember right, the NHC has gotten every storm right so far this year. As for Charly, I don't think even you could have guessed that she would explode 2 hours before land fall. As for its course, warnings were posted for the area of landfall. The people there chose not to listen. If I am in a warning area, I prepare even if landfall is predicted 100 miles away. No one really knows how a storm might move when its close to shore.
403. K8e1
Stormtop My opinion is you WISHcast....someone else used that term last pm and it describes you in my opinion...
well k 8 i dont wish cast pal i went through cindy already this year and probably will go through 2 more before the year is over...i had 3 nailed like i said cindy dennis and franklin....i did get emily wrong and i admit that...i will stick to my forecast on gert it has 2 centers right now and this is a weak tropical storm now that could do just about anything...you are entitled to your opinion but i have been forecasting these storms foe 30 years...yes i do get lots wrong but i also have been right especially on charly last year i hit it right on the bulls eye..i didnt understand how the nhc could not see the turn coming...that cost them lots of law suits and the past 3 years the nhc even with there cone has had a hard time forecasting storms........
405. WSI
Exactly Toyotaman. My parents are on the Outer Banks of NC this weekend. I watched Franklin like a hawk yesterday to make sure they weren't going to get some kind of surprise this week even though everyone, the models, and common sense said he wasn't going to do anything but go away. It never hurts to be prepared, even if it looks like you are in the clear.
WSI thanks for the post. Glad others can post about other things -beginning to think the "energy" on this blog was being pulled to just two people.
Just a question: How many times have the NHC been off on their "coning" of where a hurricane can go?
Update on the Readily Available Wildlife Model (RAWM) of storm prediction.

I was out in the pasture, examining an old rotten ash tree and noticed TONS of termites climbing the tree trunk, carrying eggs etc....no all of the old timers will tell you that insects heading for high ground is a SURE sign of heavy rain coming into an area (I am between Kingsville, TX and the Rio Grande Valley...Baffin Bay area) So I am now increasing our chance of rain here...is it Gert coming? I dunno....

(smiling) of course it COULD have been the heavy duty termite poison that I applied earlier, too...:) Ya'll keep smiling!
408. WSI
I am no expert Emmy, but from what I can tell, the cone isn't usually the problem as much as it is the intensity. From what I can gather and read, these storms are so hard to peg on intensity. Every little thing makes them change. I went through Hugo in 1989. Who would have thought a CAT 1 hurricane would have rolled though western NC? Some sites say it wasn't that strong, some say it was. I do know I have never seen destruction in my hometown at that level. It held together well. I lived with my parents at the time, and we got over 10 inches of rain. I say over, because the gauge stopped registering at 10. Crazy. Point being, the explosive deepening of these storms, eyewall replacement cycles... I think that is where the problem is.

409. WSI
Funny WildHorse. :)
I guess when you're knee deep in water, you don't need the weatherman to tell you about "intensity!" I lived thru many hurricanes and TD in Texas also -some predicted, some surprises thanks for the answer
WILDHORSES - my bees in the backyard are going boinkers
does this count?
Stormtop, despite public misconception the nhc didn't really get Charlie wrong. Yes, landfall was somewhat to the south of the forecast location. However the path wasn't that far off and the area was under a warning. The miss of landfall was a function of the angle charlie was approaching the coast and how the Fl coast curves. People have zero right to complain. If your in a warning area take it seriously.

The intensity was seriously missed, but we simply don't have a good handle on intensity yet and I'm not sure thats coming soon. Model improvement is largly a function of better observation of the atmosphere rather than great strides in forecasting. Just observe the usual improvement when upper air missions around the storm are incorporated into the forecast models. So we know see the intensification begining, but don't really have skill in forecasting.
412. WSI
I would like to think all of these recon missions will help give us a better handling on the intensity. If I remember right, they flew right into Emily as it made landfall. The information they record is massive. Hopefully it can be used to make better intensity forecasts some day.
Hey Emmy,

bees stay near the hive when storms approach; cows lie down when its going to rain; turtles, snakes, and insects move to high ground...anyone know any other old folktales about weather forcasting?
Morning. Only just got here, so I'm not sure what is above this post, and by the time I finished reading things will have changed again.

But ... I note that only two of the tropic models have Gert remaining over land - UKMET and BAMM. The others have the storm working its way back into the Bay of Campeche.

Gert models at link below. The most recent to be run is BAMM, which has the storm tracking in more or less a straight line into Mexico, and 6 hours before that, GFS, which brings Gert back into the Bay.

Acorns fall off the tree -
witches tails (clouds) in the East
caterpillars have alot of fur (for severe winters)
Emmy Rose drinks a lot of margaritas before a hurricane hits
Oh, and can we PLEASE stop banging on StormTop? There was a lot of bandwidth wasted on that yesterday. If you really know what you're talking about, a single post should be plenty to get the point across. Repeating yourself is not going to clear any clouds away.

Thanks in advance ...
Stormtop, you said that you got Charley perfect, how about showing some proof. Your word is very hard to take right now.
Hello everyone.......the tropics are almost boring....with franklin being sheared apart and gert doing an imitation of BRET.....For us weather junkies....july has been very interesting.....I must say that the NHC has impressed me over and over. The only two things that they were off on a little was the intensity of cindy at landfall which was minor and that they were a little north on landfall of Charley.....Charley surprised everyone including me on how strong it was going to be when it got here in orlando....I was planning to head to tampa but it turned, so I had to cut it off at the pass by myself.... my partner had to stay home to take care of his grandmother.....the storm was coming to close to his family.........I was all alone when the eye came across that saturday night, 9:30pm downtown Orlando....it was alot stronger than I anticipated.....sustained winds around 85mph and gusts over 100mph...im in my explorer trying to keep it pointed at the wind....pieces of roof flying over my head....Eventually I had to move to the side of Big Building. Thats the first time that I actually thought to myself, this could stop anytime now.......
Come on folks, leave StormTop alone....

We are all amateurs here, some are MUCH better than others in making predictions, and nobody has to take anyone elses prediction personally. If someone makes a forcast that anyone else thinks is tottally off base, well it isn't a big deal, let it go.

On one hand Storm may be really saying what he thinks is going to happen, or on the other, he may be a Troll (person who tries to get other upset on purpose just to get thier jollies)

If he is trying to make a honest prediction good for him, you don't have to agree.

If he is a Troll, you should ignore him cause then he won't have any fun getting ya upset.

Either way, it would be best to let it be.

My 2.5 cents
420. Alec
Hey everyone im back!
WildHorseDesertTx, I must agree. I backed off when I noticed the person of topic didn't know the difference between inches of mercury and millibars when referring to pressure. It is better people talk about the situation at hand and don't let anyone knock your opinion out the the water.

As for Gert's demise, I don't see any models bouncing the storm back out into the Bay. Mountains can deflect a storm, but if you read NHC's discussions, they have been referencing the strong deep-layer ridge to the north, so there isn't much of a chance for a northward turn. Plus, frictional effects with land would ultimately pull the storm into Mexico. Interestingly enough, the CMC model has done excellent in forecasting Gert as three days ago it formed the low in the exact place it appeared. Food for thought!

Thanks for the opportunity to speak out minds, Dr. Masters!
toyota man if you had any sense all you can is take my word for getting charley right unless you can turn back the clock and we can relive that day akll over again...i have the records water vapor charts and sat loops ...all i can tell you i got charley right on ther nose..i admit in my last post i have been doing this for 30 years and yes i did get quite a few wrong ..also i dont use a cone to cover the whole caribbean and atlantic when they have a storm out there..i use the knowledge i have in studying the enviromental conditions around the storm the water vapor charts in my opinion is the best tool around and the sarellite loops..nothing in my forecast comes from computer models...i just dont believe in them...you want to talk about error well at onte time they had franklin hitting fla..i said from day one and its posted it was going to bother the fish only...also emily computers had it hitting belieze which was a joke...i dont deal with computers..what you get from my post is my personal forecast without a cone what the storm where will do and the areas it will affect....
423. Alec
Exactly right mflomer there is a ridge to its north during its duration that should steer Gert into the mountains of mexico. Franklin looks like a goner as its getting pulled away and sheared.
424. Alec
You did say at one time stormtop that Franklin would do a loop and hit FL. Read the earlier posts
According to visible, it looks as though Gert is within hours of landfall. Nice tightening seen on satellite, again based on frictional effects.

Franklin is a funny storm. I really wonder if we will see the two-center situation out of this. Low level center shoots off NE, while the mid-level center hangs back.
426. Alec
Franklin's inner core is exposed as a result of a trough thats going to take it out to sea.
Well I said that it was one of a few deifferent possibilities.
no alec you need to learn how to read posts also...i was commenting on your great computers that said that..so dont put words in my mouth unless you can back it up.......this is the facts not trying to start and argument or defame your character like you did mind all last night.....i have more class then that...
Gert was an obvious situation, even I made a prediction and it came true. Weak storm mexico landfall. Ofcourse this seems to have happened over and over again. but at least I got this right.
Hey StormTop I went back and pulled some my stuff from charley and the NHC was pretty done close on Thursday at 11AM. I have the graphic chart in my hand showing the Hurricane hitting the ft. myers area on monday afternoon. Granted it moved faster. I just went back and read the discussion on that day,(thursday, it hit saturday 3:45PM)anyone can read the discussion for themselves.....then they move the landfall prediction up the coast towards clearwater-tampa area because of the angle of entry on florida which they did speak about......any angle change on the west coast would result in a large difference.............Lets try something on the next hurricane......When the NHC puts out a five day forecast that is to make landfall somewhere in the good old USofA....we all can make a specific spot of landfall our own....no interpretation or reasoning why, just where and when.......for instance......9pm at Destin florida.....then we can see who gets it right.....no changing.....put it on here for everyone to see......I think that would be fun.....
431. Alec
You said computers werent great. so why are you now saying they are great? And another thing dont act like you were perfectly nice to me when you blasted me yesterday about my ridiculus predictions. You are kinda funny though.
come on guys....this is a fun site, i think both of you like to spat with each other.....
433. Alec
Charley was terrible. It went right through central FL just before I was was heading up to Tallahassee for school.
434. Alec
Charley is considered the second most costly hurricane in history just behind Andrew.
You guys know that you can still read all the archives of last year on charley or any other storm back, I think about 8 years....something like that....Alec your a FSU man?
im sticking to my forecast on gert i believe gert will stall nothing to drive her in she will be blocked by the mountains and just sit there for 48 hours and attain hurricane strength...i think gert will slowly drift back in the bay of campecehe where the temps are in the low 90s..i just checked the water vapor charts and the satellite loops and this storm is hanging on with 2 centers the other located to the south of the first one...this storm will stall and start moving in and erratic fashion and all the gulf coast will have to pay attention to gert until tuesday when it will start to move n or nnw like i said all along...the high pressure is not strong enough if and i emphasize if there is one there to push gert in and the pressures have been high on the mexican coast..im sticking to this so if anyone ask me i will just refer them to this post we will call it STORMTOPS 7....if you would like to see it later on in the day........
437. Alec
Yeah Im here in Tallahassee taking school(FSU) right now, which is about to end in 2 weeks.
438. Alec
What causes the erratic motion Stormtop?
Go noles.......were you here in the orlando area when charley hit?........
Alec, don't worry about stormtop. Just pretend he doesn't exist and Stormtop do the same.

Stormtop, my main worry about what you say here is that it could cause a person who doesn't know better to panic. There are 3 types of people here
1)People with a degree or job that deal with Meterology
2)People who just are interested in storms and have watched them for years(and sometimes know more than us meteorologist)
3)People who are worried about a storm and want to know more.

The first 2 groups aren't bothered with your prediction and it causes some entertainment. The third group could be worried and made to panic by a prediction of landfall near them, when in all honest there is virtually no chance.

The weather channel is guilty of this to and so are most media. But that doesn't mean this comment area of a blog should do the same.
441. Alec
I was in Winter Haven as the winds blew around 100mph. I heard winds howled at the Orlando airport at 100mph. The reason why Charley didnt lose its strength dramatically as it went inland was because the land was so flat. The friction wasnt as big of a force to tear up the storm rapidly(like mountains)
Ok,after long thought I decided to try another post mine was censored this morning for what reason I do not know. NOW I know it was censored because only that subject disappeared,the subjects eithe side did not...the question was ask by CSE..the answer was from me.I think the EDITOR OR CENSOR OF THIS BLOG SHOULD REVEAL THEIRSELF AND WHENT THEY CENSOR A POST BE HELD ACCOUTABLE AND EXPLAIN THEIR REASONS ON THIS BLOG ,WHY THEY MADE THE DECESION THEY DID>I THINK ALL HERE WILL AGREE WITH THAT>..SO here IS your chance to tell us WHO you are and WHY.Because if someone has no IDEA what you censor for ,HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT TO POST?....as far as Franklin who knows..as faras GERT she's history. What we should be watching is around 12N and 60w...thanks..
443. Alec
What do you mean censored outrocket. Were you kicked off by someone?
444. K8e1
weatherboy i'm with you thats a great idea!! Cant imagine that not being fun for us all to do....
alec, a good question was asked..I tried to answer it and the question and answer was all that was removed IT was no software blip..had it been it would have not just got those but the other two...BLIPS in software are not that selective and would have got all within that time frame..
446. Alec
Weird. do you think someone on here is monitoring every comment. Sounds like the patriot act is in full force.
Are their any actual storm chasers on here besides me....
449. Alec
Lets do an investigation. lol Its kinda like having someone listening to every word on the phone. Do you think the CIA is spying on every call everyone makes?
450. Alec
I wish i could storm chase if i had a car. Stormchasing really pumps the adrenaline. I want to storm chase hurricanes. and actually i want to be a hurricane forecaster. now if it werent for a lack of a car, i would have storm chased dennis.
Storm chasers? It kinda depends....if it is a cat 5+ covering the entire Atlantic that's about to hit New Orleans, but affecting everyone from Miami to Brownsville with 200+ winds......then I am gonna be a storm runner...to oh, say Colorado... (cheesy grin with a tip of the hat to CERTAIN forecasters on here) LOL
What I want to see...is when a post is censored...THE ONE who edits EXPLAIN WHY TO ALL...so we know what subjects to stay off of. Its only fair otherwise you are no different from STALIN and this blog may as well be Siberia
alec you on pills because i never said the computers are great..you are one sick puppy if you think i said that about the computers...i have been against the computers since day 1..i dont know what you read or what you think i said but you are dead wrong...and alec you did get emily right i dont know if you got the bulls eye but you did get mexico right with all of the nhc information and i give you congrats alec...i hit cindy ,dennis and franklin right on the nose..i did screw up on emily not 100%..i did say she would stall which she did something the nhc said nothing about and the southward wobble or motion what ever you want to call it happened...so go back and read those posts alec and quit being so cocky because you got one storm right...i still think you and the nhc are wrong about gert and im going out on a limb to tell the people on here what i think the storm will do...i have my opinion and you have yours so lets leave it at that...dont lie about things i didnt say..i have no reason to lie i agree iwas way off on emily but you were sure hedging when emily stalled if you want to be truthful about it...alec i respect your opinion and i think your opinion of the nhc is the greatest well i dont feel the same way in the last 3 years they have been off lots of times and before that i dont want to get into that...you just post your opinion and ill post mind...you know the tools i use and thats how i come up with my forecast...my forecast could warn people way before 36 hours like the nhc does..i could warn them 72 hours in advance...i do not pull any punches and i say what i think will happen...so lets just leave it at that we are going to agree sometime and disagree most of the time...franklin i said from day one i laughed when the computer had it looping to hit fla...i said from day one it would be a fish problem...you didnt know on the first day you did not have and opinion either way on it...i went out on a limb and said what i thought would happen and to tell you the truth that was the easiest one to forecast besides cindy ...so lets stop the bickering and do some serious forecasting...
454. Alec
It would be bad, i mean wild if we had a storm the size of africa spawning F19 tornados sucking the US in the vortex. id be in a steel bunker. lol
stormtrop, your not forecasting it to hit the panhandle still, Are you?
Outrocket, I seriously doubt that anyone is censoring these posts, unless it contains (or was reported as) obscenity or spam....someitmes the blog software does act up tho
o ya, my computer crashed last night so i stopped talking
so now there is 7 storms and its only july
459. Alec
Thats the thing stormtop, i didnt lie to you, i was trying to explain stuff to you but you immediately wrote off everthing i said. And i wasnt all cocky about it. this was my first blog. Again, i dont want to bicker but you need to find new ways other than just using vapor charts. if you do that, i guarantee your forecasts will be much more on target. I do think you're hilarious sometimes.
agree wild horse...but this was no software issue...it was too specific. the question was ask why do we all think the NHC is evil...I replied I did not think all here thought it was THAT EGO is why...that most here have an EGO but their are a few that dont....maybe they thought me expressing that would make alot mad...I don't know...But I do see self EGO as the main reason people bash the NHC..that I will stick by...and the post was made right after your first post this morning Wild Horse..It stayed up approx. 5 minutes...then ONLY those three post poofed..There are almost 400 comments on this now and those were the ONLY 3 missing since yesterday..
Looking at the gulf of mexico water vapor, the trough is dropping in fast and pushing whats left of the upperlow over florida quickly into the central gulf......everything is drying out here......gert, in my opinion has no choice but to be driven into Mexico....and then drift north into texas as a rain maker.......the water vapor already shows moisture moving north over texas....hopefully texas will get some welcomed rain......but not to heavy.....
462. Alec
Hey turtlehurricane! My computer died on me last night. Sorry to have cut off from our conversation.
463. Alec
Hey everyone, lets switch to the next post by Jeff. This must be a record setter for the # of posts.
ya so what do you think about the double center in Gert?
weatherboy, I have in the past and would do again if a storm worthwile was in a neighboring state. My favorite is being the only person on the southbound roads and a traffic jam heading north.
stormtrop, your not forecasting it to hit the panhandle still, Are you?
467. Alec
If anyone is around go to the next new blog. This site's trying to scatter us.