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Snowiest Winter on Record in Portions of Michigan and Ohio

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2014

The relentless winter of 2013 - 2014 continues to add to its extraordinary resume over the Eastern U.S., where yet another near-record cold blast is underway. Temperatures on Thursday will be 10 - 25° below normal over the eastern 1/3 of the country, and it will be a serious case of weather whiplash in places like New York City, where the temperature peaked at 65°F at JFK Airport on Tuesday, a record high for the date. Temperatures will struggle to reach the upper-20s on Thursday--a spectacular 40° swing, and one of the coldest high temperatures so late in the year. The weather pattern that brought this winter's persistent cold to the Midwest and Eastern U.S., and record warmth and drought to the West Coast, is going to remain in place through most of the remainder of March. The latest 16-day forecast from the GFS model predicts a continuation of the dominant ridge over the Western U.S. and trough over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. that we've all grown very, very, very tired of (said Dr. Masters, after shoveling the latest installment of 6.5" of concrete-like snow of this winter's 90.7 inches that have fallen in the Detroit area--second only to the 93.6" that fell in the winter of 1880 - 1881.) Detroit has now had over 1" of snow on the ground for 72 consecutive days, and will easily break the record of 74 straight days, set during the notorious winter of 1978. Just to the south, in Toledo, Ohio, and Fort Wayne, Indiana, Wednesday's dumping of 6.7 - 7" of snow from Winter Storm Vulcan made the winter of 2013 - 2014 the snowiest on record at both cities. Chicago's 3.2" brought the winter total to 79.1", making it the Windy City's 3rd snowiest winter (the record: 89.7" in 1978 - 1979.) Some major cities that have had a top-five snowiest winters on record during 2013 - 2014:

Ann Arbor, MI: 1st snowiest, 92.1" (previous record: 89.8", 2007 - 2008)
Toledo, OH: 1st snowiest, 84.8" (previous record: 73.1" in 1977 - 1978)
Ft. Wayne, IN: 2nd snowiest, 72.2" (previous record: 81.2", 1981-82)
Detroit, MI: 2nd snowiest, 90.7" (record: 93.6" 1880 - 1881)
Flint, MI: 2nd snowiest, 81.8" (record: 82.9", 1974 - 1975)
Grand Rapids, MI, 2nd snowiest, 112.6" (record: 132.2", 1951 - 1952)
Billings, MT: 2nd snowiest, 95.2" (record: 98.7", 1996 - 1997)
Chicago, IL: 3rd snowiest, 79.1" (record: 89.7", 1978 - 1979)
Philadelphia, PA: 3rd snowiest, 62.9" (record: 78.7", 2009 - 2010)
Indianapolis, IN: 3rd snowiest, 54.7" (record: 58.2", 1981 - 1982)
Cincinnati, OH: 4th snowiest, 45.8" (record: 53.9", 1977 - 1978)


Figure 1. Predicted temperatures for March 20 - 26, 2014, from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show a continuation of much colder than average temperatures over the Midwest and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Daniel Davis is covered in snow and ice while clearing a sidewalk during a snow storm in Detroit Wednesday, March 12, 2014. The storm moved Detroit into 2nd place for its snowiest winter on record, behind the winter of 1880 - 1881. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Jeff Masters
March Wonder
March Wonder
Broke the record for the snowiest Winter ever, with 90 inches (and counting...)
Vulcan's Here..
Vulcan's Here..
and the visibility is almost zero..snowing extremely hard with no wind at the moment..high winds later..24 inches expected to fall ontop of our 2/3 feet already on the ground..ugh!!!
Blizzard Warning!
Blizzard Warning!
The shoreline along Lake Ontario is a violent place today. 50 MPH winds and heavy snow. Blizzard warning for much of WNY region.
Ice Art
Ice Art
Near record setting ice begins to break up on Lake Michigan on the approach into Chicago at 15,000 ft.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Masters!

Sure is a lot of snow...one day I'll see 1/10 as much as 92.1"

112.6"? forget about it
Thanks Doc.
no more snow doc we have all had enough

iam thinking maybe we are getting this winter and next winters snow all in one season
thanks for the update

is your house buried yet
flight 370?
Which is why I live in Florida, thanks Jeff...
Quoting 6. NttyGrtty:
Which is why I live in Florida, thanks Jeff...
wish I lived in fla about now
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wish I lived in fla about now
YES Keeper i had that feeling also,moved down here in the mid 80's and never regretted it once..now im seeing a winter like it was up there when i was a kid..looks like the weather patterns of that time have retured..cold and snow wise..whew..i feel for you folks up there..i remember how it was..freezing cold...brrrr...well its going down in the 40's here tonght..this winter somewhat is getting us too with the cold..but this time of year doesnt last all that long..stay warm my friend..spring IS coming...maybe?
I have all these pretty sundresses that can't be worn because the freezer wont leave..:(..

whats a girl to do?

well we here are still getting the cold fronts..its march and they should be ending soon here..i hope LOL..scott says the 90's are coming..i dont see that any time soon at least in my area..the cold is still coming down the country..maybe in april it will begin to warm up?..gee what a winter
well here is the 7-day for tampa bay area.........
looks like spring planting will be delayed this year huh........................Freeze Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
817 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

GAZ006>009-015-016-132030-
/O.EXP.KFFC.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140313T1200Z/
/O.CON.KFFC.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140313T1400Z/
/O.CON.KFFC.FZ.A.0004.140314T0200Z-140314T1400Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
817 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...AND IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 10 AM. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY DAMAGE OR KILL TENDER EARLY
SPRING VEGETATION. PLEASE LIMIT SKIN EXPOSURE WITH THE COLD WIND
CHILLS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF FROST BITE OR HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOTHING IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FREEZE EVENT
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND YOUNG TREES.

&&

$$
I didn't get my snow this year.....I have though already had my 3rd windstorm of the year and it's not even spring yet...gotta love the dust...and they just announced they still will not be letting any water into the rio grande for a few more months due to the severe low water conditions of elephant butte lake
Hardly had any snow this winter, here in southern Scotland. Anything that has fallen has melted in a few hours, although I think the ski centres in the Highlands to the north have had a good year.

We've had the 'upswing' of the jet stream loop most of the winter, bringing mild, moist air up from the southern North Atlantic. It's been unrelenting wind and rain, but there's been high pressure for the past four days, and spring would appear to have finally sprung.

The crocuses are blooming, the daffodils are thinking about it, and the frogs they are a-laying. The pair of mallard ducks that come back to nest every spring on an island in the little local park boating pond have returned.

A pair of oystercatchers that have been nesting on the flat roof of a local primary school for more than ten years are back from wintering on the coast. Hard to tell if it's the same birds, or their descendants. It's oddball behaviour, but they've become something of a 'tradition' in these parts.

The fieldfares and redwings (both belong to the thrush family) are congregating to fly back to Scandinavia and Siberia to raise their young there, and next month, the swallows, swifts and house martins will be back from Africa to nest under the eaves of the local houses.

I've read that global warming has brought nesting and migration forward, by about a week, on average. But, it's hardly noticeable - yet, anyway.
Good morning everyone, and thanks for the news of the records, Dr. Masters. I was going to complain it went all the way down to 36 here this morning....but I think I'll keep my mouth shut now. :-)
still some showers coming with this front.........
The first rule of snow shoveling, at least in DC in a cold storm following warmth
and/or rain when it's melting from underneath, is to get it as it falls
before the melted layer freezes. If you don't you'll need dynamite or Spring to get rid of it.

BTW 22F this morning in my sheltered north facing porch exposure (behaves like a shelter). Perhaps a couple degrees colder in the open. Upper 60s yesterday, front came through at 7:30PM and temperatures were near freezing by midnight bedtime. No snow in DC area
ukmet for sunday........

Severe Weather May Threaten Your Weekend


In spite of all the cold/snow weather headlines east of the Rockies in recent months, the entire Northern Hemisphere has been much warmer than average since December 1.

Jon Martin at UW calculated the NH areal coverage of various threshold temperatures from 1948-49 through this year (using gridded reanalysis and analysis data).

He has a paper on some of this.

The image above shows the total square kilometers covered by 850 hPa temperatures < -5 C for the DJF period in comparison to "normal" (solid blue is mean, and the dashed are /- 1 standard deviation).

He also noted that this year had the least overall (time averaged/integrated) spatial extent for the period of record.

We, unfortunately, have been the ones stuck in the anomalously coldest pocket the entire time
.
The first rule of snow shoveling, at least in DC in a cold storm following warmth
and/or rain when it's melting from underneath, is to get it as it falls
before the melted layer freezes. If you don't you'll need dynamite or Spring to get rid of it.



the first rule is not to live somewhere that gets that much snow :-)
I saw an excellent graphic that puts the search for MH370 into perspective.

I like the second to last image. Webster park pier! Grew up there.
Quoting 22. ricderr:
The first rule of snow shoveling, at least in DC in a cold storm following warmth
and/or rain when it's melting from underneath, is to get it as it falls
before the melted layer freezes. If you don't you'll need dynamite or Spring to get rid of it.



the first rule is not to live somewhere that gets that much snow :-)
I'm not so patiently waiting to hear back about a job in Boston. Perhaps I shouldn't be so eager, eh? Of course they have these strange contraptions that look like a big snow shovel attached to a bulldozer sort of thing. I think they're called snow plows. So maybe it wouldn't be so bad. Plus I could say stuff like, ya'll don't have enough pahking.
here we go!!!
Quoting NCstu:
I'm not so patiently waiting to hear back about a job in Boston. Perhaps I shouldn't be so eager, eh? Of course they have these strange contraptions that look like a big snow shovel attached to a bulldozer sort of thing. I think they're called snow plows. So maybe it wouldn't be so bad. Plus I could say stuff like, ya'll don't have enough pahking.

LOL. The strange thing is they'll think you talk funny. :-)
Quoting ricderr:
The first rule of snow shoveling, at least in DC in a cold storm following warmth
and/or rain when it's melting from underneath, is to get it as it falls
before the melted layer freezes. If you don't you'll need dynamite or Spring to get rid of it.



the first rule is not to live somewhere that gets that much snow :-)

And the second rule is to hope your neighbor is an EMT...
Maine

Nearly 12,000 electric customers in Maine are without power because of a winter storm moving across northern New England. Bangor Hydro Electric was reporting almost 7,000 outages Thursday morning, the vast majority in Penobscot County. Central Maine Power Co. was reporting about 4,800 customers without power. Oxford and Somerset counties were the hardest hit. Bangor Hydro says strong winds and the heavy, wet snow weighing on power lines and branches is responsible. The storm that could drop two feet of snow in some areas of Maine has prompted Gov. Paul LePage to order all state offices to open two hours later than normal, except in Aroostook County, where state offices will remain closed all day. The maximum speed on the Maine Turnpike has been lowered to 45 miles per hour.
Quoting 27. sar2401:

LOL. The strange thing is they'll think you talk funny. :-)
A guy I know from high school posted a conversation he had with another doctor:

Jake: you have a really strong accent. Where are you from?
Other doctor: Biloxi, Mississippi, but I don't have an accent. Ya'll are the ones who talk funny.
Quoting 19. LargoFl:
ukmet for sunday........


Since I will be in Huston TX this weekend I might get to chase a Storm or Two... It would be fun anyway....

Taco :o)
I am watching the weather channel and time to eat some eggs this morning..we say goodbye to Winter Storm Vulcan tonight
Quoting 10. ncstorm:
I have all these pretty sundresses that can't be worn because the freezer wont leave..:(..

whats a girl to do?

+100
Interesting Spring Forecast from Accuweather:




LINK:


THIS DAY IN HISTORY

BLIZZARD OF 1888










Link
Morning Gro.. great to see you Sir!
Quoting 10. ncstorm:
I have all these pretty sundresses that can't be worn because the freezer wont leave..:(..

whats a girl to do?



You might try these. You can get them at "Laplanders Unlimited".


Took a couple pictures while I was snow blowing yesterday. I got to say, I'm still not tired of this winter.

Grothar,

I didn't know the weather channel was in color back in 1888. What station was it on when you watched it?
Triple Nickel here currently.

55.5 F
Quoting 33. Grothar:

Not good - racing my sailboat on Galveston Bay this week-end...
Quoting 38. Grothar:


You might try these. You can get them at "Laplanders Unlimited".




ha..does that come in forest green color?
Quoting 38. Grothar:


You might try these. You can get them at "Laplanders Unlimited".




Been there, try one of the Reindeer pelt or the Knives, good German steel and oxhide sheath's.

Quoting 43. ncstorm:


ha..does that come in forest green color?


The North Carolina collection comes in Camo. Pink and regular.
Quoting 37. indianrivguy:
Morning Gro.. great to see you Sir!


And how are you? Don't see you on much.
Quoting 35. Grothar:
Interesting Spring Forecast from Accuweather:




LINK:


"A spike in damaging thunderstorms, including some capable of producing tornadoes, is expected during May and June."

Whoaaaa there Accuweather. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Quoting 40. Dakster:
Grothar,

I didn't know the weather channel was in color back in 1888. What station was it on when you watched it?


Channel 1. It was experimental. They named it the "Great White Hurricane", but people got upset about naming a winter storm. They said it was stupid and would never catch on, just like everyone thought TV was just a fad and would kill the movie industry and put people out of work.
Quoting 47. NCstu:
"A spike in damaging thunderstorms, including some capable of producing tornadoes, is expected during May and June."

Whoaaaa there Accuweather. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.


Gee, I never knew that.
Quoting 43. ncstorm:


ha..does that come in forest green color?


Only if you want to get lost in the woods.
So glad I don't live in any of the places on that list.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.
FYI: 850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea (or land surface) doesn't affect it's temperature. That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts.

Link

Looks as though the NH may be in for a hot summer..
Thanks Dr.; Does all this snow pack in the upper mid-west mean that we are going to get record floods in a few weeks in the lower mid-west and Mississippi Delta? Probably so...............
Quoting 42. Greg01:

Not good - racing my sailboat on Galveston Bay this week-end...


Not to worry. They are only forecasts for general areas and do not indicate there will be storms. I don't worry until an event actually begins. Much like 8 month El Nino forecasts and such.

Go and enjoy yourself.
Sunrise this morning here in Middle TN.. 26F and beautiful clear blue sky.. Hopefully forecast high is accurate and we get into the mod 50's this afternoon. Played tennis for an hour yesterday with flurries of snow pellets falling..crazy March this year!
Quoting 42. Greg01:

Not good - racing my sailboat on Galveston Bay this week-end...
Love sailing! what class is your boat? I spent the bulk of our honeymoon sailing one of these down in Playa del Carmen..
Quoting 52. Wyote:
FYI: 850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea (or land surface) doesn't affect it's temperature. That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts.

Link

Looks as though the NH may be in for a hot summer..



The top of the boundary layer is often above, sometimes much above 850mb in spring and summer and there is then diurnal temperature variation. But it is more useful than surface temperatures for determining air mass type. THere is a converse error of opposite sign in winter esp. in the south where intense arctic air sometimes never gets up to the 850mb level and that level's temperatures remain warm.
I beg to differ. Im glad I DO live on a place on that list (Grand Rapids, MI). Loving weather and living here never gets boring! Definitely ready for spring at this point but it's going to make the summer even that much better after living through this cold. This winter is one to remember and I lived through history. It's not the ENDless winter, or it would be unbearable... it will end and we'll look back on it with good memories someday..
Quoting 58. thesweetlycool:
I beg to differ. Im glad I DO live on a place on that list (Grand Rapids, MI). Loving weather and living here never gets boring! Definitely ready for spring at this point but it's going to make the summer even that much better after living through this cold. This winter is one to remember and I lived through history. It's not the ENDless winter, or it would be unbearable... it will end and we'll look back on it with good memories someday..


If you were where I live you would want to forget this winter as much as possible.
Here is the current NOAA snow water outlook for today. Once we get into the April snow melt thaw period, the coverage on this map will probably increase:




Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM CDT on March 13, 2014
Overcast
20 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 7 °F
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 11 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2300 ft
Overcast 3300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

No relief for the weary.
Quoting 61. PedleyCA:
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM CDT on March 13, 2014
Overcast
20 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 7 °F
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 11 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2300 ft
Overcast 3300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

No relief for the weary.


You live in Rhinelander?
Here are the US snow stats for today:

Automated Model Discussion:
March 13, 2014
Area Covered By Snow: 25.1%
Area Covered Last Month: 57.9%
Snow Depth
Average:
4.8 in
Snow Water Equivalent
 Average:
1.3 in

 
Quoting 62. FunnelVortex:


You live in Rhinelander?


My Sister does. I wouldn't live any place I had to shovel snow. I visit the snow, I don't live in it.
Quoting 64. PedleyCA:


My Sister does. I wouldn't live any place I had to shovel snow. I visit the snow, I don't live in it.


It seems like the constant problem has been every time it gets above freezing its overcast...

Live in Wausau, BTW


Record Cold Possible in Northeast; Another Cold Blast to Follow

March 13, 2014

Several Northeast cities will flirt with record lows Friday morning, and another shot of cold air is on the way next week.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:49 AM PDT on March 13, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
54 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 53 F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 15000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Forecast 74F, currently 59.6F, Here's why!




image will change..
'Social Cost Of Carbon' Too Low, Report Says

Posted: 03/13/2014 7:34 am EDT

WASHINGTON -– The U.S. government uses $37 as its estimate of how much a ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere costs, including decreased agricultural productivity, damage from rising sea levels and harm to human health related to climate change. The Obama administration updated that figure, known as the "social cost of carbon," in November.

But a report released Thursday argues that $37 is far too low. It doesn't include costs of other major climate impacts, such as increased respiratory illness from higher pollen or ozone, or the spread of insect-borne diseases such as Lyme disease, or the toll that ocean acidification will take on fisheries.

The report comes from the environmental groups Natural Resources Defense Council and Environmental Defense Fund, and the Institute for Policy Integrity, based at New York University's School of Law. Policy Integrity economic fellow Peter Howard authored the report, posted on the group's website, Cost of Carbon.

The $37 figure, said Gernot Wagner, a senior economist at Environmental Defense Fund, is the "most scientifically sound estimate coming out of climate economic models right now, but that doesn't mean it's complete."

The report argues the current social cost of carbon estimate is "biased downwards." The estimate doesn't consider climate impacts well-established in scientific literature, but not easily quantifiable as a cost.

"What we know is bad," said Wagner. "What we don't know makes it worse."

An interagency working group of scientists and economists from the National Economic Council, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council on Environmental Quality, as well as the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Transportation, and Treasury, determines the social cost of carbon. The figure is created using integrated assessment models, which combine climate and economic modeling. The working group periodically reviews the cost. The update in November was the first since 2010, when it was set at $24 a ton.

The figure is used in cost-benefit analyses for proposed regulations, allowing agencies to evaluate the economic benefits of new rules. For example, when considering regulations limiting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, the dollar figure allows the agencies to quantify future benefits of avoiding additional emissions. The higher the number, the more benefits are derived from a new rule limiting those emissions.

The report highlights areas the current cost estimate for carbon is missing, including loss of labor productivity due to extreme heat, potential climate change impact on crop-destroying pests, and climate-fueled wildfires.

Impacts on fisheries are also largely omitted from government models, including problems caused by ocean acidification, warmer ocean temperatures and algae blooms. Because the fishing industry is a major part of the economy in many parts of the world, with many people relying on it for jobs and for food, climate change is likely to bring significant costs.

Industry groups, and Republicans in Congress, won't like the suggestion that the government's carbon cost should be higher. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute have criticized the federal government's $37 figure, arguing that the models haven't been adequately reviewed by scientists and economists. Republicans slammed last year's increase to the figure.

The report does not suggest an alternate figure. Instead, it highlights areas where there is increasing scientific and economic research that could be used in future estimates.

"What we are doing with this report is pointing the light, guiding scientists toward the kinds of missing damages that ought to be included in the next iteration," said Wagner.
Quoting 53. weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr.; Does all this snow pack in the upper mid-west mean that we are going to get record floods in a few weeks in the lower mid-west and Mississippi Delta? Probably so...............


My brother in Ascension Parish La. is concerned about the same thing. Thinking flood insurance is a good idea this year.
Quoting thesweetlycool:
it will end and we'll look back on it with good memories someday..


Ya this summer when it's 90 out lol (Detroit but soon to be Grayling)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Thursday 13 March 2014
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:9.9°F
Dewpoint:-5.8°F
Humidity:49%
Wind:NW 16 mph
Wind Chill: -7
Quoting 48. Grothar:


Channel 1. It was experimental. They named it the "Great White Hurricane", but people got upset about naming a winter storm. They said it was stupid and would never catch on, just like everyone thought TV was just a fad and would kill the movie industry and put people out of work.

why do so many people become scared of change or things they don't understand? if it all stayed the same and we understood everything it would be boring...enjoyed the 1911 picture
Quoting 72. WaterWitch11:

why do so many people become scared of change or things they don't understand? if it all stayed the same and we understood everything it would be boring...


Here is a PRIME example from my last post. #68

Industry groups, and Republicans in Congress, won't like the suggestion that the government's carbon cost should be higher. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute have criticized the federal government's $37 figure, arguing that the models haven't been adequately reviewed by scientists and economists. Republicans slammed last year's increase to the figure.
12z nam hr 36 10m wind gusts



12z nam hr 36 sfc temp

Good Times, huh Keeper?
Quoting 56. JNTenne:
Love sailing! what class is your boat? I spent the bulk of our honeymoon sailing one of these down in Playa del Carmen..


It's a big boat, a Beneteau First 42S7. A 43foot racer/cruiser, not a catamaran ;-)
very cold weather in the northeast tonight
Quoting 76. PedleyCA:
Good Times, huh Keeper?
temps rebound back up to 45 tomorrow afternoon with 60 kmh wind gusts with rain showers then sat evening the next batch of cold air gets ready to move in

Quoting 77. Greg01:


It's a big boat, a Beneteau First 42S7. A 43foot racer/cruiser, not a catamaran ;-)
Nice Boat!
Quoting 79. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps rebound back up to 45 tomorrow afternoon with 60 kmh wind gusts with rain showers then sat evening the next batch of cold air gets ready to move in



Did ya get stuck in some evil loop? Is there an end to this?
might be some trouble along the mississippi river come spring,when all that snow up north begins to melt huh..might be some record flooding even...
Quoting 81. PedleyCA:


Did ya get stuck in some evil loop? Is there an end to this?


not sure
yesterday at one point I was thinking
mom was trying to kill me
Doom,

Doom everywhere'...

Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not sure
yesterday at one point I was thinking
mom was trying to kill me


Well that one shouldn't confuse the new members at all.

: p
Quoting LargoFl:
might be some trouble along the mississippi river come spring,when all that snow up north begins to melt huh..might be some record flooding even...

I would think a lot of it will end up in the Upper Great Lakes which needs it.
in case of confusion

mom refers to

mother nature

that better pat
Yeah, we know yer related Keep.

I like it when you were in the UFO peeping around much better.
Quoting 81. PedleyCA:


Did ya get stuck in some evil loop? Is there an end to this?


Actually, that's a better question than you maybe intended it to be.

If these unusually large meandering loops of the jet stream are indeed being caused by a warming Arctic causing the jet stream to weaken, then I can't see why it wouldn't become a self perpetuating vicious circle.

As cold air plunges down from the Arctic, warm air travels north into the Arctic to replace it. This resulted in Alaska being warmer than Alabama for much of the winter.

This causes additional warming of the Arctic, further weakening of the jet stream, and making its large, meandering loops become a permanent feature.

I really can't see how this self reinforcing 'loop' would stop, although its geographical position could change.
gonna have to get them to pick ya up
take ya for a little ride
NO thanx, me and Grothar saw nuff of that in Norway in 84, serving NATO.
sar2401, I don't know what more to say about the missing plane as yesterday there was hope that the Chinese satellite image was a big clue but resulted in nothing.
Winter Storm Vulcan winds down quickly

Mar .13, 2014 10:51 am ET

Northeast |


- Winter Storm Vulcan moves out to sea allowing the snow to end from west to east today.

- Snow should taper to flurries and end during the morning in Upstate New York and southern New England.

- Accumulating snow diminishes to flurries in Vermont and New Hampshire by late Thursday afternoon.

- In Maine the snow does not end until Thursday evening.

- Thursday snowfall should be an inch or less in Upstate New York and southern New England with 1 to 3 inches possible in south and west Vermont, south New Hampshire and central and east Massachusetts.

- Additional snow Thursday of 2 to 4 inches occurs in northeast Vermont, north New Hampshire and west Maine.

- Central Maine could pick up another 3 to 5 inches with 5 to 8 additional inches in eastern Maine Thursday.

- The remainder of the region will be blustery and cold with a few passing flurries from time to time.

- Highs will be in the 10s and 20s in Upstate New York and New England with 20s and 30s from Pennsylvania and New Jersey south to the Virginias.
Quoting 72. WaterWitch11:

why do so many people become scared of change or things they don't understand? if it all stayed the same and we understood everything it would be boring...enjoyed the 1911 picture

A few years ago a similar sentiment was expressed rather crudely by Clayton Williams, then Republican candidate for Texas governor, and it pretty much cost him the election against Ann Richards. He was leading in the polls before he likened the weather to rape.

"If it's inevitable, just relax and enjoy it."

I'm not sure it would cost him the election nowadays.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
sar2401, I don't know what more to say about the missing plane as yesterday there was hope that the Chinese satellite image was a big clue but resulted in nothing.

Yes, now the Chinese are saying the satellite photo wasn't even of the search area and the release was a "mistake" by an "unauthorized individual". I'm sure they a hunting him or her down now and the outcome won't be good.

I have been part of about 20 missing aircraft searches in my 27 years in search and rescue. The search for MH370 shows the dark side of blogs and social media. In addition to the clearly incompetent search organization in Malaysia, this constant stream of false clues, rumors, and speculation is disrupting the search efforts even more, and would be a problem even in a well run search. People seem to think that this should have all been wrapped up by now and, since it isn't, all this garbage is spewing forth. I really fear what will happen the next time we get a major land falling hurricane. The same kind of false reports and rumors will spread if the public doesn't know everything in two days. We have been conditioned that all disaster are supposed to be TV docudramas and they should last an hour. This country, and the world in general, is turning more delusional. We are not on a good path.
Thank you D. Masters for the great post
Quoting 84. Patrap:
Doom,

Doom everywhere'...

"Too Infinity and Beyond"
Quoting 99. PalmBeachWeather:
"Too Infinity and Beyond"
'Ahhh" The end of page lull again....
Quoting 21. Physicistretired:


In spite of all the cold/snow weather headlines east of the Rockies in recent months, the entire Northern Hemisphere has been much warmer than average since December 1.

Jon Martin at UW calculated the NH areal coverage of various threshold temperatures from 1948-49 through this year (using gridded reanalysis and analysis data).

He has a paper on some of this.

The image above shows the total square kilometers covered by 850 hPa temperatures < -5 C for the DJF period in comparison to "normal" (solid blue is mean, and the dashed are /- 1 standard deviation).

He also noted that this year had the least overall (time averaged/integrated) spatial extent for the period of record.

We, unfortunately, have been the ones stuck in the anomalously coldest pocket the entire time
.


Here in the southern Rockies, we have been much warmer than normal all winter.
"LOL" I can just imagine 100 people keep hitting refresh just waiting for someone to post #100 so the page will turn.....Happens every time....
Quoting Greg01:


It's a big boat, a Beneteau First 42S7. A 43foot racer/cruiser, not a catamaran ;-)

You lucky dog. My first boat that I actually owned (not rented) was a 34' Lagoon. I bought it on August 18, 1992, in the Bahamas. It was sunk on August 23 by Hurricane Andrew. We then rented again until 2002, when my wife and I retired and intended to live aboard in the Caribbean. I wrote a check for a down payment on a beautiful 1998 38' Fountaine Pajot on October 2, 2002. Three days later, my wife was diagnosed with leukemia. She died in 2004. I'm a lousy single handed sailor, so that ended our dream. I haven't had much luck with boats. I sure hope you enjoy yours.
Quoting 102. PalmBeachWeather:
"LOL" I can just imagine 100 people keep hitting refresh just waiting for someone to post #100 so the page will turn.....Happens every time....


I usually just play Metallica's Turn the Page when that happens. (or Seger's, either one is fine)
yoda is back!!
New NMME Nino 3.4 Plumes



Quoting 103. sar2401:

You lucky dog. My first boat that I actually owned (not rented) was a 34' Lagoon. I bought it on August 18, 1992, in the Bahamas. It was sunk on August 23 by Hurricane Andrew. We then rented again until 2002, when my wife and I retired and intended to live aboard in the Caribbean. I wrote a check for a down payment on a beautiful 1998 38' Fountaine Pajot on October 2, 2002. Three days later, my wife was diagnosed with leukemia. She died in 2004. I'm a lousy single handed sailor, so that ended our dream. I haven't had much luck with boats. I sure hope you enjoy yours.


Sorry to hear that. I've lost an Uncle (I never knew him, he was 7) and a couple of good friends to Leukemia.
I use 50,as it load's mucho fasterer'
A plague of fleas: Tiny Eurasian exotic is upending watery ecosystems across the northern Great Lakes

The zooplankton never saw it coming. Well, perhaps it would be more correct to say that they never smelled it coming. These tiny, eyeless water creatures recognize predators by their scent, and zooplankton in the Upper Midwest have never added the spiny water flea to their stink list. The results have been catastrophic.

"The word I use is blindsiding," says limnologist W. Charles Kerfoot, a professor of biological sciences at Michigan Tech. "When Bythotrephes longimanus was introduced here from northern Europe 30 years ago, the native species were totally oblivious to it."

They still are, which is why the spiny water flea, aka Bythotrephes (pronounced BITH-oh-TREH-feez) is devouring its way through the Great Lakes and into the surrounding inland waters. As a result, this half-inch-long predator with a spikey tail is on the verge of disrupting an entire ecosystem from the bottom up.


Link
Quoting 104. Dakster:


I usually just play Metallica's Turn the Page when that happens. (or Seger's either one is fine)
One of my favorites Dak.."On a long lonesome highway, east of Omaha"
Portlight Conference, New Jersey



What: The Getting It Right Conference - Shelter and Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities during relief and evacuation efforts

When: June 26-27, 2014

Where: Sheraton Lincoln Harbor, Weehawken, NJ



“When relief efforts are underway, it is critical for people living with paralysis to be educated as to the correct processes. That is why it is necessary for emergency responders to integrate the perspective of those living with disabilities and formulate procedures that involve all community members,” said Niketa Sheth, SVP, Quality of Life, Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation. “The Reeve Foundation has been a longtime supporter of Portlight Strategies and it is an honor to lock arms to ensure that those living with disabilities are safe when any natural disasters strike.”

As a former Reeve Foundation Quality of Life grantee, Portlight Strategies focuses on the needs of individuals living with disabilities upon the impact of natural disasters, and addresses accessibility challenges in order to shape procedures at the local and national level. The “Getting It Right” workshop has been transformed into a forum that connects representatives of local, state and federal emergency services with leaders from the disability community.

“Whether it is an earthquake overseas or a hurricane in our hometown, Portlight Strategies immediately responds and supports relief efforts. However, we have a dual mission to not only respond but also educate local and regional officials on how to build strategic procedures that include the disability community. That is why we are thrilled to join forces with the Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation to leverage their expertise and address any hurdles when it comes to accessibility in catastrophic times,” said Paul Timmons, Board Chair, Portlight Strategies. “‘Getting It Right’ was designed to reach deeper into local communities and thus enhance our impact. It’s about envisioning and executing smart solutions for all people.”



Dr. Jeff Masters delivering his presentation opening Evening 2013 Atlanta,Ga. Portlight "Getting it Right" Conference.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Took a couple pictures while I was snow blowing yesterday. I got to say, I'm still not tired of this winter.


I like winter pictures like that. I don't like to actually be in that kind of winter, but I do like the pictures.
Pi Day
By: Susie77, 1:03 PM CDT on March 13, 2014 +0
Courtesy of: Spaceweather.com


FRIDAY IS PI DAY: Mark your calendar. This Friday, March 14th (3.14), is day. It's an occasion to celebrate
one of the most compelling and mysterious constants of Nature. Pi
appears in equations describing the orbits of planets, the colors of auroras,
the structure of DNA. The value of is woven into the fabric of life, the universe and ... everything.

Humans have struggled to calculate for thousands of years. Divide the circumference of a circle by its diameter; the ratio is .
Sounds simple, but the devil is in the digits. While the value of is finite
(a smidgen more than 3), the decimal number is infinitely long:
3.1415926535897932384626433832795............
Quoting Dakster:


Sorry to hear that. I've lost an Uncle (I never knew him, he was 7) and a couple of good friends to Leukemia.

Thanks. It's a nasty disease, and she had a particularly rare variety. There's almost no money being spent on leukemia research, and it's one of the few cancers that have had no progress made in the last 50 or so years. Nothing against the Keeling Curve, but I was thinking yesterday that it would be nice if we could raise some money for research into diseases that are actually killing people right now.
Quoting Grothar:
THIS DAY IN HISTORY

BLIZZARD OF 1888










Link

I remember it well. That's Grothar and me in the last picture. He told me that, if you keep your hands over your ears, you won't be electrocuted by fallen wires. I still think he was fibbing to me. :-)
its so windy over here in new haven,conn
The latest statement from Malaysian Acting Defence Minister Hishammuddinhishammuddin Hussein's news conference:

We are working very closely with the FAA and the NTSB on the issue of a possible air turn back,Hishammuddin said, referring to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board.

They have indicated to us that based on the information given by the Malaysian authorities, they being the FAA and NTSB the U.S. team was of the view that there was reasonable ground for the Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side of the peninsula of Malaysia. Under the circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct the search even if the evidence suggests there is a possibility of finding a minor evidence to suggest that ... the aircraft would have been there.


Is it even possible to say anything less clear at a news conference? You just can't make this stuff up.

EDIT: Fixed it up. Why can't this site handle a simple cut and paste?
New NMME Nino 3.4 Plumes


models seem to be trending for a weaker el nino
Quoting 102. PalmBeachWeather:
"LOL" I can just imagine 100 people keep hitting refresh just waiting for someone to post #100 so the page will turn.....Happens every time....
I have 200 posts per page.
Quoting 116. hurricanes2018:
its so windy over here in new haven,conn
yes same here in florida..it was really blowing hard this morning
Quoting Haiyan2013:
I have 200 posts per page.

Just wait until there's one malformed or gigantic graphic post. You'll find out why 200 posts per page doesn't work very well sometimes.
A new study on the relationships between ancient languages corroborates the hypothesis that the first Native Americans spent thousands of years living along a vast swath of now sunken land bridging the Asian and North American continents.

North America’s first inhabitants migrated from mainland Asia across a land bridge spanning the Bering Sea before traveling south and eventually settling across the land. But for several years now, geneticists and archaeologists have been theorizing that the migration was not as simple as crossing the land bridge and never looking back, but that the first Native Americans inhabited the expansive land bridge known as Beringia for as many as 10,000 years and that a back-and-forth migration may have taken place.
Link
Quoting 88. TroutMadness:

I would think a lot of it will end up in the Upper Great Lakes which needs it.
yes that could be true,some area's up north really need the water..spring melt should help them this spring.
well the winds by me have calmed down some..east coast is getting the gusts now..
Quoting 122. ColoradoBob1:
A new study on the relationships between ancient languages corroborates the hypothesis that the first Native Americans spent thousands of years living along a vast swath of now sunken land bridging the Asian and North American continents.

North America’s first inhabitants migrated from mainland Asia across a land bridge spanning the Bering Sea before traveling south and eventually settling across the land. But for several years now, geneticists and archaeologists have been theorizing that the migration was not as simple as crossing the land bridge and never looking back, but that the first Native Americans inhabited the expansive land bridge known as Beringia for as many as 10,000 years and that a back-and-forth migration may have taken place.
Link


I find it pretty amazing that the study of language , backs up sea level rise.
Another press conference in Malaysia. The Acting Transport Minister is a cousin to the Acting Defence Minister.

Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddinhishammuddin Hussein yesterday said 13 Chinese experts and a Japanese disaster relief team comprising 12 members were roped in.

I wonder what the roped in Japanese disaster relief team is supposed to do? Note the lack of actual experts, like the US Air Force Rescue Coordination Center.

Link
oh boy..here we go again...monday...stay alert folks...
maybe high winds monday also....
SAR..stay alert this weekend...................
Quoting 118. ricderr:
New NMME Nino 3.4 Plumes


models seem to be trending for a weaker el nino
You mean we're not going to see the ultra super el nino that we did in 1997 or even stronger?.
Picture from CWG from last nights windy episode
135. NCstu
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:
You mean we're not going to see the ultra super el nino that we did in 1997 or even stronger?.
Global weather oscillations dude has a nino prediction. He's an infallible genius so perhaps one of us should shell out the $$$
You mean we're not going to see the ultra super el nino that we did in 1997 or even stronger?.




not of the models know a thing or two......
137. NCstu
Also, he is going 17-8-3 in 2014. I imagine that means he is predicting a weak nino, but perhaps he has reason to believe the two won't be connected this time around.
Quoting 136. ricderr:
You mean we're not going to see the ultra super el nino that we did in 1997 or even stronger?.




not of the models know a thing or two......


the same models that cant get a forecast correct out past 48 hours this winter?
I'm still not sold on this Hollywood production doom and gloom El nino forming that would be stronger than the one in 83 or 97.
140. NCstu
Quoting 138. ncstorm:


the same models that cant get a forecast correct out past 48 hours this winter?
uhhh, 48 hours is being rather generous. At least where we are
141. NCstu
I've decided that naming storms after letters of the greek alphabet is a bad idea. Imagine if Wilma had been alpha or something. That would be super lame. And would we have to retire alpha? How can you retire a greek letter?
Quoting 140. NCstu:
uhhh, 48 hours is being rather generous. At least where we are


NC has the Nowcasting model..look outside and report..upgrade needed for those with bad eyes..
<
Quoting 142. ncstorm:


NC has the Nowcasting model..look outside and report..upgrade needed for those with bad eyes..
The models have failed multiple times this winter.They under performed most snow events or just didn't see them at all.The ones they did over perform never came to fruition.
Nam is a bit slower with the coming storm this weekend..
Quoting 129. LargoFl:
oh boy..here we go again...monday...stay alert folks...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN AS GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A TRANSITION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON TO A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY SNOW/SLEET.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS COLUMN COOLING THAN THE GFS... TRENDING TO WINTRY PRECIP OVER 12 HOURS SOONER... BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE SURFACE PATTERN... APPROACHING TROUGH... AND EVENTUAL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO RETAIN A MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

CERTAINLY A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THIS LOWER-CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME... AND WE CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT IT`S MID MARCH AND SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS QUICKLY BECOMING CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP IT AS A RAIN/WINTRY MIX FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH STRICT INTERPRETATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF ALL-SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC... EVEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (AND THUS THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL COLD AIR) TRACKS OVERHEAD.

I guess I'll have to keep the snow shovel out a little bit longer...gheez!!!
Sumatra’s burning rainforests

Massive forest fires are raging on the Indonesian Island of Sumatra. Many of the blazes were deliberately lit to make way for lucrative and environmentally controversial palm oil plantations.

Link
CWG noow has a high of 35 for Monday with rain and snow.They keep lowering that temp with each new update.
Quoting 146. Chapelhill:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN AS GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A TRANSITION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON TO A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY SNOW/SLEET.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS COLUMN COOLING THAN THE GFS... TRENDING TO WINTRY PRECIP OVER 12 HOURS SOONER... BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE SURFACE PATTERN... APPROACHING TROUGH... AND EVENTUAL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO RETAIN A MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

CERTAINLY A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THIS LOWER-CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME... AND WE CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT IT`S MID MARCH AND SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS QUICKLY BECOMING CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP IT AS A RAIN/WINTRY MIX FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH STRICT INTERPRETATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF ALL-SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC... EVEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (AND THUS THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL COLD AIR) TRACKS OVERHEAD.

I guess I'll have to keep the snow shovel out a little bit longer...gheez!!!
yes,its a bit early but looks like a strong storm too..lots of wind will be with this one
151. NCstu
Quoting 146. Chapelhill:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN AS GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A TRANSITION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON TO A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY SNOW/SLEET.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS COLUMN COOLING THAN THE GFS... TRENDING TO WINTRY PRECIP OVER 12 HOURS SOONER... BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE SURFACE PATTERN... APPROACHING TROUGH... AND EVENTUAL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO RETAIN A MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

CERTAINLY A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THIS LOWER-CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME... AND WE CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT IT`S MID MARCH AND SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS QUICKLY BECOMING CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP IT AS A RAIN/WINTRY MIX FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH STRICT INTERPRETATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF ALL-SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC... EVEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (AND THUS THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL COLD AIR) TRACKS OVERHEAD.

I guess I'll have to keep the snow shovel out a little bit longer...gheez!!!
I don't have a snow shovel. They aren't terrible useful when none of the neighbors do either and the roads don't get plowed. There's one guy across the street from upstate New York who has one and he was looking very proud of himself for shoveling his driveway and 50ft of sidewalk.
early but GFS has the rain/snow line around DC..rain thru the carolina's..we'll see monday..
here is the Nam for monday....rain/snow...........
Quoting 151. NCstu:
I don't have a snow shovel. They aren't terrible useful when none of the neighbors do either and the roads don't get plowed. There's one guy across the street from upstate New York who has one and he was looking very proud of himself for shoveling his driveway and 50ft of sidewalk.


Tell him to feel really proud of himself and do the whole neighborhood then.
Quoting 147. ColoradoBob1:
Sumatra%u2019s burning rainforests

Massive forest fires are raging on the Indonesian Island of Sumatra. Many of the blazes were deliberately lit to make way for lucrative and environmentally controversial palm oil plantations.

Link


This happens during every big El Nino. North east Brazil is in prolonged, severe drought too, another region that dries up during El Ninos.

Next time you buy something with palm oil added, think of the flaming orang utans burning to death in the forest canopy.
The kids are asking if they'll have a extended weekend because they heard about snow.The kids have gotten lazy this school year.Thankfully I have shelves full of books to keep them occupied during a snow day.
mon-tues might be a bit rough around DC and virginia huh....
Quoting 147. ColoradoBob1:
Sumatra’s burning rainforests

Massive forest fires are raging on the Indonesian Island of Sumatra. Many of the blazes were deliberately lit to make way for lucrative and environmentally controversial palm oil plantations.

Link


xraymike79 -
” Mother Nature pulls up her dress and the gangsters all rush in.”
Quoting 72. WaterWitch11:

why do so many people become scared of change or things they don't understand? if it all stayed the same and we understood everything it would be boring...enjoyed the 1911 picture


I'm glad you enjoyed looking at it as much as I enjoyed taking it.

There was a very recent paper done on a study of the human brain which makes us migratory and a theory as to why it is lacking in some humans. They are trying to expound on another study as to why some humans are resistant to change. I can't wait for new ideas and inventions. Especially is the field of reducing aging.
Quoting 155. yonzabam:


This happens during every big El Nino. North east Brazil is in prolonged, severe drought too, another region that dries up during El Ninos.

Next time you buy something with oil palm added, think of the flaming orang utans burning to death in the forest canopy.


Except -
February was Singapore's driest month since 1869

Link
161. NCstu
Quoting 159. Grothar:


I'm glad you enjoyed looking at it as much as I enjoyed taking it.

There was a very recent paper done on a study of the human brain which makes us migratory and a theory as to why it is lacking in some humans. They are trying to expound on another study as to why some humans are resistant to change. I can't wait for new ideas and inventions. Especially is the field of reducing aging.
I have a problem with change. I get really stressed when my android apps change their icons. I'm going to be moving pretty soon though so I guess I better learn to embrace change.
162. ARiot
I guess the MD/DC/VA and Casome rolina peeps are aware of Wxrisk.com's Facebook Page...

He's doing his normal ALL CAPS LOOK AT THE MODELS thing for the early week storm.

But when he goes final, he's pretty good :D (In spite of his ALL CAPS he's really not shouting)

I tend to go with the more conservative CWG calls, and laugh at the snowbros in teh comments :D
oh boy.."Helicity" for monday..we're in for it once again..where's scott LOL...
Mucape for Monday...................
Quoting 161. NCstu:
I have a problem with change. I get really stressed when my android apps change their icons. I'm going to be moving pretty soon though so I guess I better learn to embrace change.


I hope you know that moving is one of the most traumatic and stressful events in one's life.
166. NCstu
Quoting 163. LargoFl:
oh boy.."Helicity" for monday..we're in for it once again..where's scott LOL...
I asked wikipedia what helicity is and I got this, "In meteorology,[1] helicity corresponds to the transfer of vorticity from the environment to an air parcel in convective motion"
So what is helicity?
well for my area at least so far..we'll have a nice weekend here..then monday boom downhill again...
Another wet year?

wash, it will be important to see how this impacts the ENSO areas in the next few weeks.
Quoting 166. NCstu:
I asked wikipedia what helicity is and I got this, "In meteorology,[1] helicity corresponds to the transfer of vorticity from the environment to an air parcel in convective motion"
So what is helicity?
ive always considered a storm might turn severe when helicity was high..at least wind wise..its the time i keep a good eye out for tornado's and waterspouts coming ashore...helicty was high last week when we got those tornado's and bad winds..gotta love March..
Quoting 162. ARiot:
I guess the MD/DC/VA and Casome rolina peeps are aware of Wxrisk.com's Facebook Page...

He's doing his normal ALL CAPS LOOK AT THE MODELS thing for the early week storm.

But when he goes final, he's pretty good :D (In spite of his ALL CAPS he's really not shouting)

I tend to go with the more conservative CWG calls, and laugh at the snowbros in teh comments :D
The snow bros are hilarious.
yeah could be supercells with this coming storm monday..gee enough already...
Quoting 155. yonzabam:

Don't preach to me , I'm in the choir . And the El Nino has yet to begin. Which makes the droughts you site even more perplexing. Because, each one is off the charts, and the El Nino is coming.
Quoting 166. NCstu:
I asked wikipedia what helicity is and I got this, "In meteorology,[1] helicity corresponds to the transfer of vorticity from the environment to an air parcel in convective motion"
So what is helicity?
here is a better description..which is why we may get tornado warnings here monday.....................................Helicit yA property of a moving fluid which represents the potential for helical flow (i.e. flow which follows the pattern of a corkscrew) to evolve. Helicity is proportional to the strength of the flow, the amount of vertical wind shear, and the amount of turning in the flow (i.e. vorticity). Atmospheric helicity is computed from the vertical wind profile in the lower part of the atmosphere (usually from the surface up to 3 km), and is measured relative to storm motion. Higher values of helicity (generally, around 150 m2/s2 or more) favor the development of mid-level rotation (i.e. mesocyclones). Extreme values can exceed 600 m2/s2.
175. NCstu
Quoting 170. LargoFl:
ive always considered a storm might turn severe when helicity was high..at least wind wise..its the time i keep a good eye out for tornado's and waterspouts coming ashore...helicty was high last week when we got those tornado's and bad winds..gotta love March..
it looks like you also need highish CAPE along with helicity to get tornadoes.
176. NCstu
Quoting 174. LargoFl:
here is a better description..which is why we may get tornado warnings here monday.....................................Helicit yA property of a moving fluid which represents the potential for helical flow (i.e. flow which follows the pattern of a corkscrew) to evolve. Helicity is proportional to the strength of the flow, the amount of vertical wind shear, and the amount of turning in the flow (i.e. vorticity). Atmospheric helicity is computed from the vertical wind profile in the lower part of the atmosphere (usually from the surface up to 3 km), and is measured relative to storm motion. Higher values of helicity (generally, around 150 m2/s2 or more) favor the development of mid-level rotation (i.e. mesocyclones). Extreme values can exceed 600 m2/s2.
you rock. I love this blog. I think I get it now too, unlike wind shear. Maybe if I read about wind shear a couple hundred more times I'll get it, but so far no luck.
Quoting 166. NCstu:
I asked wikipedia what helicity is and I got this, "In meteorology,[1] helicity corresponds to the transfer of vorticity from the environment to an air parcel in convective motion"
So what is helicity?

In very simplistic terms, you can think of it as a measure of directional wind shear.

It's a bit more complicated than that though
Quoting LargoFl:
SAR..stay alert this weekend...................

Noticed that, Largo. The models have done as exceptionally bad for me as they've done exceptionally good for you. The Euro is all hot to trot on this scenario while the GFS say no dice. We'll have to wait a few more days and see if the models come together. We are certainly are way overdue for a round of severe weather.
I guess the MD/DC/VA and Casome rolina peeps are aware of Wxrisk.com's Facebook Page...


I enjoy his posts
In just 20 years we have come a long way in track forecast verification of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones:



Notice the errors out to 3 days have decreased from 300 to 100 nautical miles and from 100 to 50 nautical miles in 1 day.

Intensity models on the other hand still have a ways to go, but research is being conducted into ways to narrow down the error spread.

well OUR storm begins by texas/LA Saturday..already severe possible there for the weekend..
Quoting 178. sar2401:

Noticed that, Largo. The models have done as exceptionally bad for me as they've done exceptionally good for you. The Euro is all hot to trot on this scenario while the GFS say no dice. We'll have to wait a few more days and see if the models come together. We are certainly are way overdue for a round of severe weather.
well some good rains forcasted for your area..hope the bad winds stay away from you there..
SKEW-T: A LOOK AT HEL

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

1. What is HEL?

Helicity (HEL) is a mathematical quantity derived from: 1. speed shear (how much wind speed increases with height) between the surface and 3 km above, 2. directional shear (how much wind speed changes direction with height) between the surface and 3 km above, 3. The strength of the low level wind directly into the speed and directional wind shear. The stronger each of these components is the higher the helicity.

The sounding at the bottom has a helicity of 28. It is low since the wind direction does not change much between the surface and 3 km above and the wind speed is not increasing with height between the surface and 3 km above. The low level wind speeds are not impressive either. Storms that develop in this environment will likely not be supercellular and will not rotate.

2. Operational significance of HEL:

HELICITY
150-300 Possible supercell
300-400 Supercells favorable
400 Tornadic possible

TORNADOES: Tornado risk becomes more likely with high helicity values when severe storms develop especially if adequate CAPE and moist low level air are in place.

3. Pitfalls:

a. HEL gives no assessment of cap, CAPE and low level moisture. Check these on forecast soundings.

b. Mesoscale influences can rapidly enhance the helicity value.

184. NCstu
The 12Z NAM is showing a high EHI at 63 hours for central Texas. So that could mean tornadoes right?
northern gulf coast might be stormy this weekend..
Quoting 184. NCstu:
The 12Z NAM is showing a high EHI at 63 hours for central Texas. So that could mean tornadoes right?
nws says possible severe storms for there..still early yet..we'll see what it says tomorrow
187. NCstu
Quoting 183. GeorgiaStormz:
1. What is HEL?

Helicity (HEL) is a mathematical quantity derived from: 1. speed shear (how much wind speed increases with height) between the surface and 3 km above, 2. directional shear (how much wind speed changes direction with height) between the surface and 3 km above, 3. The strength of the low level wind directly into the speed and directional wind shear. The stronger each of these components is the higher the helicity

I understand 1 and 2 but not 3. What is "strength" referring to?
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN OK/ERN
TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

...EXTREME SERN OK/EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. NAMELY...ALL THREE MODELS HANDLE
THE EJECTION OF LEAD SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THE
GFS IS FLATTER AND SUBSTANTIALLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM WHICH
ALLOWS THIS FEATURE TO BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED ACROSS EAST TX AT
16/00Z. PRIMARY REASON FOR THESE DIFFERENCES APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION...THEN INTO NRN MEXICO. IT/S
NOT CLEAR HOW FAR WEST THIS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX WILL DIG AND STRENGTH
OF DOWNSTREAM SFC CYCLONE...ALBEIT WEAK...OVER TX IS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LEAD SPEED MAX. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER TX THAN THE NAM...BUT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE GFS.

GIVEN THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY...60F+ SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVANCE NWD
ACROSS EAST TX TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD A WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD TRANSITION SEWD INTO NCNTRL TX
BY PEAK HEATING WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF A DRY LINE NEAR I-35. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COOL WITH -18C EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
ALONG I-20 AT 16/00Z. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR MODEST
INSTABILITY...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...TO EVOLVE BY PEAK
HEATING. WEAK-MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG DRY LINE...AND NEAR EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE SFC
LOW/DRY LINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR THE GULF COAST FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT
SUNRISE ACROSS OK WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. BY MID
DAY STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX WILL NOSE TOWARD THE METROPLEX
AND SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. SCT CLUSTERS OF
STRONG-POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE...ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2014

are we getting severe weather this weekend?? very big news from nfl!!Darrelle Revis, New England Patriots strike contract!! NFL NEWS!!

The Denver Broncos owned the first 24 hours of free agency with a flurry of huge moves. The New England Patriots have struck back with a big move of their own Just a few hours after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers released him, Darrelle Revis has agreed to terms with the Patriots on a two-year, $32 million contract, according to NFL Media's Albert Breer, per a Patriots source. ESPN first reported the news.

The deal truly amounts to a one-year contract. Revis will get $12 million in 2014, and the team has a $20 million option for 2015. That figure will force Revis and the Patriots to revisit the contract a year from now; there's no way they'll pay him $20 million. Breer reports that the Patriots have designs on eventually locking up Revis with a long-term deal.



this needs be seen for the northern gulf coast...................SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. SCT CLUSTERS OF
STRONG-POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE...ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG.
....so an interesting weekend coming up huh
NASA global temperature anomaly for February just in, and it's great news for global warming deniers. From a quick look at the table, it's only the joint 17th warmest February on record, at 0.45C above 1951-80.

Compare with January, which was the 4th warmest on record, at 0.70C.

Link

Edit: link not working.
well we livened up the blog this afternoon huh...see ya all later...stay safe out there
Quoting 187. NCstu:
I understand 1 and 2 but not 3. What is "strength" referring to?


speed
194. NCstu
yea the SPC's day 3 convective isn't terribly ambitious. That's normal for them though. I wonder if we'll see some red in Texas tomorrow or Saturday.
195. NCstu
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!
Quoting 195. NCstu:
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!


a what?
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!



CONGRATS!!!!!
a what?


a cat modeler..you haven't heard of them...they go around...pick up fresh dead cats from animal shelters...they pose them and take pictures of them...the pictures are real popular on facebook....



actually...i'll let stu explain'
I'm too sexy for my Blog'
Quoting 195. NCstu:
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!


Congrats! :)
oh catastrophe modeler...
202. NCstu
= me right now (perhaps slightly less muscular)
= me right now (perhaps slightly less muscular)



and hopefully with your pants pulled a tad bit higher
Quoting 191. yonzabam:
NASA global temperature anomaly for February just in, and it's great news for global warming deniers. From a quick look at the table, it's only the joint 17th warmest February on record, at 0.45C above 1951-80.

Compare with January, which was the 4th warmest on record, at 0.70C.

Link


But what they didn't say is that the other 42,689 Februaries were colder.
Put a shirt on will ya.


The glare is blinding.

; P
Quoting 205. Patrap:
Put a shirt on will ya.


The glare is blinding.

; P


Don't ever talk bad about Phelps.. :)

-swimmer
Winter of 2013-14 already tops 2012-13 for number of hurricane-force storms in North Atlantic



Thursday, March 13, 2014

Winter storms in the North Atlantic can whip up winds as strong as a hurricane. Some even undergo bombogenesis, a process of rapid intensification that can lead to especially dangerous winds and precipitation. Although each event is short-lived, the influence of repeated hurricane-strength storms (winds at least 74 mph) throughout the winter can leave a clear mark on wind patterns in the North Atlantic.

The map at right shows difference from average wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere for January-February 2014. Blues indicate areas with wind speeds that were higher than the 1981-2010 average; browns indicate winds were lower than average. Most of the Northern Hemisphere is awash with white and muted blues and browns, indicating winds were not especially different from the long-term average for this time of year. In the North Atlantic, however, an unusually high number of hurricane-force storms have left splashes of dark blue off southeastern Greenland, Norway, Europe, and the western Mediterranean.........
Hi Everybody out there under snow or the sun, sheltering from winds, or resting in the shade.

The blog heading looks like the reverse of "Hell!"

I can no longer imagine how you can live in temps that cold for so long?
Then again I realise you have heating and as long as it keeps on working you can shelter from the external conditions.
The people of Chicago and its neighbours could do excursions for those who live in the more tropical zones, to see how hard it is to survive an extreme winter.
Stay safe and warm everybody.

Quoting 203. ricderr:
= me right now (perhaps slightly less muscular)



and hopefully with your pants pulled a tad bit higher
Speak for your self... some of us might indeed be thinking about what happens if the pants fall a wee bit lower... [cheeky grin]

Good afternoon to all... wx here in Nassau today is a repeat of most Thursdays this winter... rainy / overcast, breezy to windy, winds from the north [which 4 me is a major problem] temp currently 77 degrees, slightly below average for this time of year. Winds swung around from due south at 7 a.m. to due north by noon. Hopefully it won't get too cold overnight.

I'll run away and read some more entries now... more later!
Keep might enjoy this.... Canadian Rick Mercer poking some fun at Environment Canada. I'd have to say I feel the same way right about now.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA&featur e=share
Quoting 198. ricderr:
a what?


a cat modeler..you haven't heard of them...they go around...pick up fresh dead cats from animal shelters...they pose them and take pictures of them...the pictures are real popular on facebook....



actually...i'll let stu explain'

Won't be long before the exponent's of this are visiting (more-ges!) Cant Sp-Hell it! I mean the place where they keep gone people!
That face book place is a very shady area to get lost in!
Quoting 209. BahaHurican:
Speak for your self... some of us might indeed be thinking about what happens if the pants fall a wee bit lower... [cheeky grin]


trust me, those things are so tight they try their best, but they cant move. seriously it's that tight.

Took me 30 mins once to put on a competition swimsuit, and that's not those old full body stuff.
the mid-west is warming up fast! some temp next TO 70f


According to Meteo France, a drier than normal March-April-May period is expected in the Lesser Antilles.

:(
Quoting 755. FLwolverine:
A new video from Peter Sinclair:

New Video: California Drought – Natural, Man Made, or Both?
March 13, 2014

Here's the Link to the blog.

And one directly to the video: Link

Dr Rood is one of the speakers in the video.


Published on Mar 13, 2014


Dr.Ricky Rood from wunderground speaks at 4:40 into the video


The still-emerging drought in California and the American west may become the biggest climate story of the decade. I interviewed a number of scientists, in California, and across the country, on how climate change can effect drought, and atmospheric cycles in general.

So, as we are managing about 1 post every ten minutes tonight or this afternoon in the western regions, I would like to say that:-
Its almost dawn at the north pole and I am sure this 6 month day is going to give us plenty to talk about, let alone write about.

Spring here in southern Europe and about 20/C most days now, still a chance of a chilly night but only a chance now we are well into March.
Good night in advance, in case I fall asleep from lack of reading material.
Quoting NCstu:
= me right now (perhaps slightly less muscular)

He really, really needs a good meal. :-)
Quoting NCstu:
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!

Cool! You got the job. Now start practicing your Boston accent and don't tell anyone you're from the South. They'll automatically think you're a drooling idiot whose children are your second cousins...not that people in Boston are at all prejudiced. :-)
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Cool! You got the job. Now start practicing your Boston accent and don't tell anyone you're from the South. They'll automatically think you're a drooling idiot whose children are your second cousins...not that people in Boston are at all prejudiced. :-)


SMH....
Quoting LargoFl:
well some good rains forcasted for your area..hope the bad winds stay away from you there..

We could use the rain. In the past 15 days, the WPC forecast about 5 inches of rain for me. We actually had...let's see, 4, carry the 1...27 hundredths of inch. They were only slightly off. :-)
Quoting Dakster:


SMH....

You know it's true...
Quoting 221. sar2401:

You know it's true...


I have noticed one thing, you can take the person out of Boston, but not Boston out of the person.

Just watch Yukon Men, one of the people on the show left Boston as a young adult 40 years ago, he still has the Boston accent.... You'd think after living in a small town in Alaska that he would have lost it, but nope. His kids don't have the accent, which means that it isn't genetic.
Quoting 195. NCstu:
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It looks like I'm moving to Boston!!!!!! I'M GOING TO BE A CAT MODELER!!!!!!
No comment.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
In just 20 years we have come a long way in track forecast verification of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones:



Notice the errors out to 3 days have decreased from 300 to 100 nautical miles and from 100 to 50 nautical miles in 1 day.

Intensity models on the other hand still have a ways to go, but research is being conducted into ways to narrow down the error spread.


Without a couple of good years, the 120 hour and 96 hour track trends would look a lot worse.When it come to intensity, I wish they would just give current intensity from 96 hours on and start forecasting intensity when it gets to less than 96 hours. I understand the need for intensity forecasts at 72 hours but the error rate is so great the longer out it is that I think it reduces confidence in the total forecast.
Quoting 220. sar2401:

We could use the rain. In the past 15 days, the WPC forecast about 5 inches of rain for me. We actually had...let's see, 4, carry the 1...27 hundredths of inch. They were only slightly off. :-)


Here in Fort Myers, my Vantage Vue weather station has only received (1.74" of rain) in the past 6 weeks (February and March combined).

Hopefully next week's system will bring something down here.
Quoting Dakster:


I have noticed one thing, you can take the person out of Boston, but not Boston out of the person.

Just watch Yukon Men, one of the people on the show left Boston as a young adult 40 years ago, he still has the Boston accent.... You'd think after living in a small town in Alaska that he would have lost it, but nope. His kids don't have the accent, which means that it isn't genetic.

Correct. I don't think there is a caste system so well developed as Boston's Brahmin class. The old saw about:

And this is good old Boston,
The home of the bean and the cod,
Where the Lowells talk only to Cabots,
And the Cabots talk only to God


is really true. I have relatives that live in Boston and I really can't stand them. They thought I was moving into a shack with a bunch of savages when I told them I was going to Alabama. They actually sent their kids to an after school class so they could talk with a "better" Boston accent. After I moved here and sent them an email, they were actually surprised that we had internet down here. I told them they string wires through the swamps so I could get dial-up.

Twits.
sar2401, yet a new twist has emerged about the missing plane and that is the plane flew for 4-5 hours after transponders went off and may have landed someplace instead of crashing into water.

Link
Lordy

Now unnamed Americans are getting into the misinformation act:

U.S. officials said earlier that they have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

It's not clear what the indication was, but senior administration officials told ABC News the missing Malaysian flight continued to "ping" a satellite on an hourly basis after it lost contact with radar. The Boeing 777 jetliners are equipped with what is called the Airplane Health Management system in which they ping a satellite every hour. The number of pings would indicate how long the plane stayed aloft.

It's not clear, however, whether the satellite pings also indicate the plane's location.
The new information has greatly expanded the potential search area into the Indian Ocean.
"We have an indication the plane went down in the Indian Ocean," the senior Pentagon official said.

The official initially said there were indications that the plane flew four or five hours after disappearing from radar and that they believe it went into the water. Officials later said the plane likely did not fly four or five hours, but did not specify how long it may have been airborne.


One little problem. They are talking about the Boeing Airplane Health Management System. Malaysian 777's don't have this system. The only information they could have gotten was a response from the satellite when it send out a ping to the aircraft. No other information than the ping would have been acknowledged. If the aircraft entered the water at the right attitude and the water was shallow enough, the satellite subsystem, which has its own batteries, could have responded until the batteries shorted out from salt water...which would take about three hours. That's assuming any of this is actually true. It would be much better if they'd just put the effort into the search and shut up until there's something recovered.

Edit: Link here. Note the story comes out Maylasia, not the US.
Quoting 226. sar2401:

Correct. I don't think there is a caste system so well developed as Boston's Brahmin class. The old saw about:

And this is good old Boston,
The home of the bean and the cod,
Where the Lowells talk only to Cabots,
And the Cabots talk only to God


is really true. I have relatives that live in Boston and I really can't stand them. They thought I was moving into a shack with a bunch of savages when I told them I was going to Alabama. They actually sent their kids to an after school class so they could talk with a "better" Boston accent. After I moved here and sent them an email, they were actually surprised that we had internet down here. I told them they string wires through the swamps so I could get dial-up.

Twits.


I have in-laws that live in the outskirts of Boston... They are fine though. But I hear the stories as well.

I hope you told them you have indoor plumbing too.

Anyways, another awesome South Florida day. I did manage to get the sprinklers up and running in preparation for the "dry" season.
When we find the plane we will know more... All of this stuff coming out is PURE conjecture at this point.

Until then I feel like I watching an episode of "Lost". The just have the change the plane's take-off and landing destinations.
A US airways 737 Aborts takeoff roll as nose gear fail's, all evacuated safely.

Philadelphia.
Quoting 231. Patrap:
A US airways 737 Aborts takeoff roll as nos gear fail's, all evacuated safely.

Philadelphia.


Thankfully,no major injuries nor deaths occurred.

Quoting 208. PlazaRed:
Hi Everybody out there under snow or the sun, sheltering from winds, or resting in the shade.

The blog heading looks like the reverse of "Hell!"

I can no longer imagine how you can live in temps that cold for so long?
Then again I realise you have heating and as long as it keeps on working you can shelter from the external conditions.
The people of Chicago and its neighbours could do excursions for those who live in the more tropical zones, to see how hard it is to survive an extreme winter.
Stay safe and warm everybody.



Quoting 220. sar2401:

We could use the rain. In the past 15 days, the WPC forecast about 5 inches of rain for me. We actually had...let's see, 4, carry the 1...27 hundredths of inch. They were only slightly off. :-)


Sounds like here, Boo-Hoo ............. lol

very windy at my place
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
sar2401, yet a new twist has emerged about the missing plane and that is the plane flew for 4-5 hours after transponders went off and may have landed someplace instead of crashing into water.

Link

Yes, we cross posted. The CNN story is even worse than the Yahoo/ABC News story since it refers to ACARS, which has nothing to do with bringing "pinged" by a satellite. It's the BAHMS (great acronym, BTW) system that the Malaysian plane didn't have. It seems everyone is getting their panties in a wad because it's almost six days and this thing isn't wrapped up yet. Never mind that Air France 447 took almost three days before the first debris were recovered, and searchers knew within about a 100 mile radius where AF447 went into the water. Never mind that the search was conducted by the French and assisted by the Brazilian Navy, two countries with a lot of maritime missing aircraft search experience, as well as considerable resources. American Idol is coming on in a couple of hours, and this thing is starting to interfere with with really important entertainment.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Sounds like here, Boo-Hoo ............. lol

Yes, darn it. It's not even so bad that we didn't get the rain, since we're still ahead for the year. It's that the WPC gets your hopes up and then it's a giant bust. Any signs of the tap turning back on for you?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thankfully,no major injuries nor deaths occurred.


Anytime the pax can walk down the forward emergency slide, it's a good crash.
You know in the not-too-distant future I may be having to fly a long distance. Recent events are not making me feel any better about it... Just saying.
This blog is just like the Atlantic tropics.......dead.
Quoting sar2401:

Anytime the pax can walk down the forward emergency slide, it's a good crash.


EDIT: It appears a wheel on the nose gear blew rather than having the entire gear collapse. Looks like the gear collapsed when the aircraft veered off the runway.
Quoting 237. sar2401:

Yes, darn it. It's not even so bad that we didn't get the rain, since we're still ahead for the year. It's that the WPC gets your hopes up and then it's a giant bust. Any signs of the tap turning back on for you?


We are being promised nothing that I can see. We are at 1.69" which is 2/28 and 3/1 only.
Do you guys want to talk about Lusi or the upcoming severe weather?
Quoting Dakster:
You know in the not-too-distant future I may be having to fly a long distance. Recent events are not making me feel any better about it... Just saying.

Yeah, I know. Every single aircraft incident is going to be front page news as long as the Malaysian flight is still a mystery. The accident in Philly would have been a two minute front page item in normal times. I wish this kind of thing didn't happen, since it makes people afraid to fly, even though the most dangerous act of flying is driving to the airport.
Quoting Haiyan2013:
Do you guys want to talk about Lusi or the upcoming severe weather?

We've been talking about the threat of severe weather quite a bit. Why don't you scroll back and read some of the posts?
Quoting 239. Dakster:
You know in the not-too-distant future I may be having to fly a long distance. Recent events are not making me feel any better about it... Just saying.


Are you being deported?
Quoting 245. sar2401:

We've been talking about the threat of severe weather quite a bit. Why don't you scroll back and read some of the posts?
Wanna talk about Lusi?
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:49 PM PDT on March 13, 2014
Partly Cloudy
73 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 49 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 77 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 9.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 10000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

low was 56.9F high was 73.8F. normal 46/71
Quoting PedleyCA:


We are being promised nothing that I can see. We are at 1.69" which is 2/28 and 3/1 only.

Really, for how much that system was hyped, it certainly didn't turn out to be the storm of the century for you guys. The set up looked good until it actually got close to shore. I don't really understand about all the technical aspects of El Nino but, after 30 years in California, that kind of storm really slams California when there's an El Nino. Maybe it's just too early yet, but that's the kind of storm behavior I didn't normally see when we're ramping up to an El Nino.
251. NCstu
OK guys. So catastrophe modeling is calculating estimates of the frequency and severity of catastrophic events in different locations. The models are mainly used by insurers and reinsurers. They use them to set rates, calculate reserves, prove to the government that they aren't going to go bankrupt, etc.

So for example, if you want to know what insurance losses would be if Haiyan hit Manhattan, your best answer would come from a cat modeler.
Quoting 246. PedleyCA:


Are you being deported?


Ped, thats a Grother type question if ever I read one!

Whats the pecipition forecast for your zone over the next few months?
Are you destined to be getting any significant deluges?
Or are you going to have to rely on fogs and mists?
Quoting 249. sar2401:

Really, for how much that system was hyped, it certainly didn't turn out to be the storm of the century for you guys. The set up looked good until it actually got close to shore. I don't really understand about all the technical aspects of El Nino but, after 30 years in California, that kind of storm really slams California when there's an El Nino. Maybe it's just too early yet, but that's the kind of storm behavior I didn't normally see when we're ramping up to an El Nino.


It wasn't that SoCal got screwed on that storm. Mostly the area around me didn't get hit hard. There were many places that got 3+ times what I got.
Quoting Haiyan2013:
Wanna talk about Lusi?

Sure. It's a tropical storm that's about to get torn to shreds by increasing wind shear. Crossing the cooler waters in its path to New Zealand will weaken it to an extratropical storm within the next two days. It will bring some heavy rains to New Zealand but it doesn't look like it's going to cause any major damage.

It's just not that interesting of a storm. The chances for severe weather Sunday and Monday look like they could have more impact than Lusi if the models pan out, but I've sworn off models until the system is not less than 48 hours out. Been burned too many times this year already.

Quoting 232. Tropicsweatherpr:


Thankfully,no major injuries nor deaths occurred.

That looks like a Airbus A320 to me. I will check though:)


Gillian looks ok
Quoting PedleyCA:


Are you being deported?

No, he and everyone on the plane is being kidnapped and held for ransom. It's already planned, so there's not much he can do about. :-)
Quoting Tornado6042008X:

That looks like a Airbus A320 to me. I will check though:)

It is.
Quoting 258. sar2401:

It is.


Apparently the front tire blew out, lucky the plane didn't roll. Good job by the pilots to keep her straight.

lowest ive seen a storm go in a while
East Haven, CT 21.7 °F Scattered Clouds

New Haven | Scattered Clouds | 25 °F
Meriden | Clear | 21 °F
Bridgeport | Clear | 25 °F



Nearby Weather Stations on March 13, 2014 8pm

Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford | 21.7 °F
DopplerDon.com | 21.4 °F
Rock Hill | 21.3 °F

Temperature 21 °F Feels Like 11 °F east haven
Tomorrow is forecast to be Warmer than today
Quoting PedleyCA:


It wasn't that SoCal got screwed on that storm. Mostly the area around me didn't get hit hard. There were many places that got 3+ times what I got.

I saw some of those higher totals but places like Big Sur and along the Marin and Sonoma coast are the stations I watch to see how impressive a storm really was. Places like Cazadero in Sonoma County. Mt. Tam in Marin, and several of the RAWS stations in the Big Sur area. The all had respectable three day totals of 10-15 inches, which sounds like a lot. However, Cazadero has had one day rainfalls of over 25 inches, and hit a three day total of 47.98 inches in the El Nino year of 1982. Last week's storm were just enough to keep the Redwoods alive for a while longer.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Gillian looks ok

Yes, (he or she) does. I'm not sure of the gender on this one. It's kind of weird that WUnderground doesn't have either of these two storms on the tropical weather page.


and the west pacific's assault on the Philippines begins again
Quoting 263. sar2401:

I saw some of those higher totals but places like Big Sur and along the Marin and Sonoma coast are the stations I watch to see how impressive a storm really was. Places like Cazadero in Sonoma County. Mt. Tam in Marin, and several of the RAWS stations in the Big Sur area. The all had respectable three day totals of 10-15 inches, which sounds like a lot. However, Cazadero has had one day rainfalls of over 25 inches, and hit a three day total of 47.98 inches in the El Nino year of 1982. Last week's storm were just enough to keep the Redwoods alive for a while longer.


NoCal is in a league of its own. Not only does it get hit by storms that miss us down here, but their storms are just wetter than what we end up with.
Quoting 252. PlazaRed:


Ped, thats a Grother type question if ever I read one!

Whats the pecipition forecast for your zone over the next few months?
Are you destined to be getting any significant deluges?
Or are you going to have to rely on fogs and mists?


Yes that is a Grothar question. Yes, I think we will be getting by with the Fogs and Mists. Foggy season is coming up soon.
Severe Weather Threat Returns Saturday

No severe thunderstorms are expected across the country through Friday
Saturday, a new weather system will increase the threat of strong to severe storms in the south-central states, including portions of east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats from any severe storms that develop.

Quoting NCstu:
OK guys. So catastrophe modeling is calculating estimates of the frequency and severity of catastrophic events in different locations. The models are mainly used by insurers and reinsurers. They use them to set rates, calculate reserves, prove to the government that they aren't going to go bankrupt, etc.

So for example, if you want to know what insurance losses would be if Haiyan hit Manhattan, your best answer would come from a cat modeler.

OK, do me a favor when you get on the job. Model a 160 mph hurricane coming ashore with a direct south path about 30 miles west of Mobile Bay at astronomical high tide. Estimate the storm surge at 30 feet on top of the high tide. Are you also able to model how far the storm surge moves inland? That would be a key to the total damage. We did an exercise with the Alabama EMA a couple years ago and, even without sophisticated modeling, the damage was stupendous. It would be interesting to see a professional estimate.
Quoting 262. Gearsts:
I remember years ago, Kerry Emanuel stated that tropical cyclones need water over 200 feet or so because there would not be enough heat energy to fuel a tropical cyclone. The Gulf of Carpenteria has these frequently, and it is shallow...

Gulf of Carpentaria
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The location of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The Gulf of Carpentaria from an 1859 Dutch map
The Gulf of Carpentaria between Bentinck Island (South Wellesley Islands) and the Australian continent
Loading ore from McArthur River zinc mine at Bing Bong Loading Facility, 2011

The Gulf of Carpentaria (14S 139ECoordinates: 14S 139E) is a large, shallow sea enclosed on three sides by northern Australia and bounded on the north by the Arafura Sea (the body of water that lies between Australia and New Guinea). The northern boundary is generally defined as a line from Slade Point, Queensland (the northwestern corner of Cape York Peninsula) in the northeast, to Cape Arnhem, Northern Territory (the easternmost point of Arnhem Land) in the west.

At its mouth, the Gulf is 590 km wide, and further south, 675 km. The north-south length exceeds 700 km. It covers a water area of about 300,000 km. The general depth is between 55 and 66 metres (30 and 36 fm) and does not exceed 82 metres (45 fm). The tidal range in the Gulf of Carpentaria is between two and three metres. In geological terms, the Gulf is young; the Sahul Shelf that underlies it was dry land as recently as the last ice age. It is believed to be the location of a major asteroid impact event in 536 A.D.


Cool stuff if I may say so..:)

Quoting PedleyCA:


NoCal is in a league of its own. Not only does it get hit by storms that miss us down here, but their storms are just wetter than what we end up with.

No doubt about that, but some of the mountain and central coast stations rack up some pretty amazing total as well when there's a true Pineapple Express system.
Tornadoes, Severe Storms Possible This Weekend
Quoting 268. hurricanes2018:
Severe Weather Threat Returns Saturday

No severe thunderstorms are expected across the country through Friday
Saturday, a new weather system will increase the threat of strong to severe storms in the south-central states, including portions of east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats from any severe storms that develop.



Tornadoes, Severe Storms Possible This Weekend
sam champion on the weather channel. I love to see him he will do a good job on the weather channel
#Breaking : A US official has said there is a "significant likelihood" that #MH370 is at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Russia Picks an Odd Time to Put on Climate Halo

*** 'Shocking' scale of pangolin smuggling revealed



Pangolins videos, news and facts

* Potential of non fossil fuel foams

Human brains 'hard-wired' to link what we see with what we do

Africans' ability to digest milk linked to spread of cattle raising

New fossil species reveals parental care of young from 450 million years ago

What happened when? How the brain stores memories by time

* Turning raw natural gas into upgraded liquid alcohol fuel

!!! We must forget to avoid serious mental disorders, and forgetting is actively regulated


More to biological diversity than meets the eye: Specialization by insect species is the key

*** Oxygen's different shapes described


!!! More accurate data on thousands of years of climate change


* US ends contract ban on BP

NC Democrats to push bill to move all coal ash

South Dakota editorial roundup

Ancient Roman Lead Melted Down to Explore the Frontiers of Physics

E.P.A.'s Proposed Rules on Water Worry Farmers

Endangered Mexican gray wolf at heart of political battle in Southwest

Agent Orange from farm to table
Should Agent Orange be approved as a herbicide for agricultural use? Discuss!

Tiny T. Rex Relative Roamed a Warmer Arctic


Whale Ancestors Echolocated 28 Million Years Ago


************************************************* ************************************************** *****

The following article is courtesy of ColoradoBob:

!!! Tropical grassy ecosystems under threat, scientists warn
How Climate Change Science and news is twisted into confusion has a lasting effect on a Populace that jus saw its warmest Summer ever down under.


Bernie Fraser: ‘untruths’ about climate change are often going unchallenged. Photograph: Alan Porritt/AAP

Climate change body chief: 'bad guys' won after the 'good guys' lay down
Bernie Fraser says ‘brazen falsehoods’ and ‘misinformation’ have confused a switched-off and fed-up public





Lenore Taylor, political editor
theguardian.com, Tuesday 11 March 2014 16.19 EDT


One of the country’s most experienced policy thinkers draws a brutal conclusion about Australia’s climate change debate: the “good guys” have lost the argument because they failed to contest untruths peddled by “bad guys”, including the federal government.

Bernie Fraser, the chairman of the independent climate change authority, which the Abbott government intends to abolish, is a softly spoken former governor of the reserve bank and former secretary of the federal treasury, not known for simplistic assessments of major policy discussions.

But he is clearly frustrated at what he believes has been the wilful misleading of a confused and increasingly fed-up public by politicians and industry groups who, he says, deliberately spread misinformation about climate science and the policies that might reduce Australia’s emissions.

The “bad guys” are winning because their “brazen falsehoods”, “untruths” and “misinformation” are often going unchallenged.

“The good guys are way behind and seem to be not making up ground,” he says, in an interview with Guardian Australia ahead of a speech he will make to the national press club on Thursday. “The public generally are getting bored with it all and switching off. The problem seems to be to be that the bad guys are spreading untruths and exaggerations and assertions without a lot of hard evidence and serious debate, cheered on by the big companies who make similar assertions and repeat those assertions without thorough debate.”

Asked to define the “good guys” and the “bad guys” in this analysis, he says: “The good guys are the mainstream scientific bloc and their analysis of why the planet is warming up.

“The bad guys are the mavericks, the kind we hear on the radio, who don’t accept the science and who attack the scientists, I ignore them and they deserve to be ignored … but it’s more serious when you get to people in positions of influence, in industry associations or companies, or in the government and the opposition who in some cases say they believe the science but then don’t act as if they do.

“That whole range of people I lump into the bad guy camp.”

Included in this “bad guy” category, he says, are “the present government and some of its biggest supporters, big companies and industry associations”.

“In the case of the companies and business associations, they are speaking their book and that is understandable. Companies pursue self-interest rather than community interest. The problem becomes really serious when those self-interested views tend to have disproportionate influence on the policy-makers and that is happening at the present time … particularly because there is not an effective countering of those kinds of views.”

And that brings Fraser to the Labor party.

“The Labor party has lost its way,” he says. “That is one of the reasons why the government and the big companies are getting away with blue murder on some of these things, just asserting things, because Labor is not picking them up effectively.

“Labor has changed its mind so many times the public is just confused about what they stand for on climate change at the moment. I suspect some members of the Labor party are also confused about what they are doing ...

“I think there has been a long-term trend towards brazen false or misleading assertions and a faith that repeated brazen assertions can at least confuse things sufficiently to carry the day … Those kind of brazen campaigns have become more prominent … and there is very little institutional advocacy left for promoting the broader community interest.

“There is no one out there really presenting a coherent, informed, mature case on this … It seems to be a very important debate we should be having is going by default and those who speak loudest and most frequently, regardless of the merits of the argument, seem to be winning the day.”

In its most recent report the authority found Australia needed to treble its minimum 2020 target for greenhouse gas emissions from 5% below 2000 levels to 15% to have a “credible” role in international efforts to slow global warming.

The Abbott government has committed to meet the 5% target through its Direct Action policy – primarily a program of competitive government grants to companies and organisations seeking to reduce emissions.

Fraser repeated the authority’s view that policymakers need to use a “toolbox” of policies to reach an emissions reduction target, but he also said Ross Garnaut, an expert climate adviser to the former Labor government, had made some “good points” about the capacity of Direct Action – as so far outlined – to meet the targets.

Garnaut criticised the government’s green paper, saying it “shoots the breeze” instead of outlining a serious policy, and said Direct Action would quickly cost an unaffordable $4bn to $5bn a year. He advised the Senate to stick with a floating carbon price until the Coalition came up with a sensible alternative.

“I have been careful in questioning the likely effectiveness of Direct Action,” Fraser says. “I’ve perhaps been sceptical about it, as we understand it at this point in time.

“I thought the submission by Ross Garnaut made some pretty good points … because there are reasons for doubts about the government’s ability and willingness to address the question to the extent that I and the authority would say the science requires it to be addressed.”
Tomorrow is pi day.

So I'm having clam pizza pie and blueberry pie for dinner tomorrow.



Next year we get 3.14/15

So itsa 2 year PI run one could say?



.."the butter wouldn't melt so I put it in the pie"



The CO2 reading at Mauna Loa hit its highest value ever recorded yesterday. 400.62ppm.
Quoting 276. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment


Found this interesting

Quoting 275. Doppler22:
#Breaking : A US official has said there is a "significant likelihood" that #MH370 is at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.


CNN reported earlier today that the 4 hour theory was dismissed by the Malaysia government but now its back in play??

I cant believe they cant find this plane or even have an idea where it could be..tomorrow morning we will be waking up to a new theory..
Cincinnati and Indianapolis have updated their snow totals slightly higher. Neither change affected their rank.

Several cities in the Midwest and Northeast have had extremely snowy winters this year. The following cities are consolidated statistical areas of more than 2 million people. Let's take a closer look:

Chicago:

1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979
2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978
3) 79.1 IN. 2013-2014

Will Chicago get to #2?

Detroit:


1) 93.6 IN. 1880-1881 (Laura Ingalls Wilder's The Long Winter)
2) 90.7 IN. 2013-2014

Detroit has a decent shot at #1. With a little luck will get to Isaac's 100" dream winter!

Indianapolis:


1) 58.2 IN. 1981-1982
2) 57.9 IN. 1977-1978
3) 55.1 IN. 2013-2014

Titan & Vulcan underperformed but we'll see if more snow takes Indianapolis to #1

Philadelphia:


1) 78.7 IN. 2009-2010
2) 65.5 IN. 1995-1996
3) 62.9 IN. 2013-2014

Will Philly get to #2? #1 seems unlikely but 19" fell there on April 3 1915.

Note: The Mount Holly NWS office has not put in the 2009-2010 season in their archive. It's only been 4 years! I had to add the monthly totals together. Extremely unsatisfactory.

New York City:

1) 75.6 IN. 1995-1996
2) 63.2 IN. 1947-1948
3) 61.9 IN. 2010-2011
4) 60.4 IN. 1922-1923
5) 60.3 IN. 1872-1873
6) 57.8 IN. 1874-1875
7) 57.4 IN. 2013-2014

It won't take a whole lot to move NYC up several spots. We'll see what the St. Patrick's Day storm does

Cincinnati:

1) 53.9 IN. 1977-1978
2) 47.3 IN. 1976-1977
3) 46.3 IN. 1950-1951
4) 46.1 IN. 2013-2014

#1 is doubtful but won't take much to take Cincinnati to #2

Columbus:

1) 67.8 IN. 1909-1910
2) 54.1 IN. 1995-1996
2) 54.1 IN. 1977-1978
4) 53.9 IN. 2013-2014

Won't take much to get Columbus OH to #2. #1 is doubtful.
Thanks sunlinepr! I had the story of the giant yellow supergiant in yesterday's list but I did not have the video. I just put the video in my blog and gave you credit for showing it to me.
Quoting 281. TropicalAnalystwx13:The CO2 reading at Mauna Loa hit its highest value ever recorded yesterday. 400.62ppm.
I predict 500 ppm will be reached for the first time on April 23, 2049.
hydrus I think that a deep warm layer is needed over deep water because a hurricane can upwell colder water. But if the water is shallow and warm all the way down there can be no upwelling of colder water. Water cooling would come from evaporation alone.

But I don't know. Discuss!
Short nightly hello. Guess the following news, quoting some "people", are the latest on the missing plane:

Missing Flight Left Data Trail
Jetliner 'Pinged' Satellites With Location, Altitude for Hours After Disappearance
WSJ, By Jon Ostrower, Andy Pasztor and Julian E. Barnes, Updated March 13, 2014 8:43 p.m. ET

------------

Moreover The Guardian live blog.

-----------

For people with a lot of interest and time (lol): Blog of pilots.
Quoting 287. BaltimoreBrian:
I predict 500 ppm will be reached for the first time on April 23, 2049.
Call me a pessimist, but I'll go with May of 2032.
That seems a bit fast Nea, over 5 ppm annually. I hope not! But it will happen all the same. We're making sure of it.
Quoting 290. Neapolitan:
Call me a pessimist, but I'll go with May of 2032.


I'll only be 72, and it would have gone up 190ppm in those years.

...rolling Home to you'
the plates on the earth go round and round...
Quoting 267. PedleyCA:


Yes that is a Grothar question. Yes, I think we will be getting by with the Fogs and Mists. Foggy season is coming up soon.




Fog
By Carl Sandburg
The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.
295. beell
Quoting 294. Grothar:




Fog
By Carl Sandburg
The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


Damn cat.
Quoting 294. Grothar:




Fog
By Carl Sandburg
The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


Good Evening Sensei. How Goes everything with You.


Global Warming More Severe Than Estimated: Study


By Cody Chan, March 13th, 2014 | Science | 1 Comment

In a new research it is said faster and steeper emissions cuts are needed to keep the global warming below dangerous levels. The study is published in the Nature Climate Change journal and contradicts with most of the earlier findings.

Over the next few decades the Earth may experience about 20 percent more warming than what was projected earlier as the studies prior to this were based on recent surface temperature trends mostly.

One of the authors of the study, Drew Shindell, said it is like a yardstick for how much climate change is to be experienced if we push the system a certain amount.

Shindell is from Goddard Institute for Space Studies of NASA.

He said the amount of greenhouse gases have skyrocketed to unprecedented levels in the history of human beings. In 2013 the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has hit 400 parts per million. In last 800,000 years this level has been the highest.

Shindell used more sophisticated computer models in his study. Other climate scientists earlier had used relatively simple computer models.

Professor Reto Knutti from Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Zurich said the new study is significant and also bridges the gap between their earlier understandings.

Knutti was not involved in the new research.

Climate researcher Myles Allen said the new study does not support lower-end projections of warming and matches with other recent estimates but with the use of different scientific approach.

Allen is from Oxford University.
Breaking ABC News

Malaysia Airliner Communications Shut Down Separately: US Officials Say
March 13, 2014



By MARTHA RADDATZ, DAVID KERLEY and JOSH MARGOLIN
DAVID KERLEY


Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

U.S. investigators told ABC News that the two modes of communication were "systematically shut down."

That means the U.S. team "is convinced that there was manual intervention," a source said, which means it was likely not an accident or catastrophic malfunction that took the plane out of the sky.

U.S. officials said earlier that they have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.
It's not clear what the indication was, but senior administration officials told ABC News the missing Malaysian flight continued to "ping" a satellite on an hourly basis after it lost contact with radar. The Boeing 777 jetliners are equipped with what is called the Airplane Health Management system in which they ping a satellite every hour. The number of pings would indicate how long the plane stayed aloft.

It's not clear, however, whether the satellite pings also indicate the plane's location.

The new information has greatly expanded the potential search area into the Indian Ocean.

"We have an indication the plane went down in the Indian Ocean," the senior Pentagon official said.

The official initially said there were indications that the plane flew four or five hours after disappearing from radar and that they believe it went into the water. Officials later said the plane likely did not fly four or five hours, but did not specify how long it may have been airborne.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said, “It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, and we are consulting with international partners about the appropriate assets to deploy.”

Carney did not specify the nature of the “new information.”

Pentagon officials said that the destroyer USS Kidd was being moved to the western part of the strait of Malacca at the request of Malaysia and is heading towards an area where the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea meet. The ship has helicopters aboard that can scour the area.

The U.S. action came hours after Malaysian officials said they had extended their search into the Andaman Sea and had requested help from India in the search for the missing plane and its 239 passengers.

Investigators also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

But the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on the other side of Malaysia.

“We are working very closely with the FAA and the NTSB on the issue of a possible air turn back,” Hishammuddin said, referring to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board.

“They have indicated to us that based on the information given by the Malaysian authorities, they — being the FAA and NTSB — the U.S. team was of the view that there was reasonable ground for the Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side of the peninsula of Malaysia. Under the circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct the search even if the evidence suggests there is a possibility of finding a minor evidence to suggest that ... the aircraft would have been there.”

Hishammuddin said it was possible the plane kept flying after dropping off of radar. "Of course, this is why we have extended the search," he said.

The Malaysians spent much of today's news conference dismissing earlier leads.

more,..

Missing jet creates legion of armchair sleuths
By SCOTT MAYEROWITZ,— Mar. 13, 2014 3:31 PM EDT

Good night, folks! Barb, a secret sleuth too ;-)
Quoting 295. beell:


Damn cat.


Change that a little bit and it would make a good movie title.
Quoting 296. PedleyCA:


Good Evening Sensei. How Goes everything with You.


As good as it can be, Grasshopper. I didn't feel all that well today. For a quick moment today, I thought I caught a glimpse of Father Time smiling behind me.
(Pennsylvania) Bradford's high temp today was 15, breaking the former record low max of 19 that was set in 1992. Additionally, Altoona's high temp today was 25, breaking the former record low max of 26 that was set in 1980.
303. beell
Quoting 300. Grothar:


Change that a little bit and it would make a good movie title.



The Hurricane comes
on big fat rhino feet

It sits looking
over the harbor and the city
blowing loud and deadly farts
and then moves on.
DC
:)
Quoting 301. Grothar:


As good as it can be, Grasshopper. I didn't feel all that well today. For a quick moment today, I thought I caught a glimpse of Father Time smiling behind me.


Hope you feel better soon..

That isn't a good feeling, I know I have had some nasty feelings these past weeks too.
Quoting 304. Dakster:


Hope you feel better soon..

That isn't a good feeling, I know I have had some nasty feelings these past weeks too.


Yes, but mine are health related :):):)
0z NAM shows a heck of a system

Quoting 212. GeorgiaStormz:


trust me, those things are so tight they try their best, but they cant move. seriously it's that tight.

Took me 30 mins once to put on a competition swimsuit, and that's not those old full body stuff.
This I can believe. I know the goal is to reduce drag to as close to zero as possible without restricting movement, so those suits have to stay extra close.

Quoting 239. Dakster:
You know in the not-too-distant future I may be having to fly a long distance. Recent events are not making me feel any better about it... Just saying.
There are still boats and trains... though I am not sure about service records for those...

Quoting 247. Haiyan2013:
Wanna talk about Lusi?
I'd love to, but u r prolly gone by now... :o(

Quoting 264. sar2401:

Yes, (he or she) does. I'm not sure of the gender on this one. It's kind of weird that WUnderground doesn't have either of these two storms on the tropical weather page.
Lusi was up this morning... I thought Gillian had gone ashore again because I didn't see any more alerts on Wunderground. Plus I missed HGW's posts overnight.

Looks like the Australian area is getting all the late season activity this year. S Indian has been pretty quiet this last little while... maybe one more hurrah before the end of March....
Quoting 302. Doppler22:
(Pennsylvania) Bradford's high temp today was 15, breaking the former record low max of 19 that was set in 1992. Additionally, Altoona's high temp today was 25, breaking the former record low max of 26 that was set in 1980.


More All-Time record lows being broken. I would call that extreme.
Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

U.S. investigators told ABC News that the two modes of communication were "systematically shut down."

That means the U.S. team "is convinced that there was manual intervention," a source said, which means it was likely not an accident or catastrophic malfunction that took the plane out of the sky.

Quoting 301. Grothar:As good as it can be, Grasshopper. I didn't feel all that well today. For a quick moment today, I thought I caught a glimpse of Father Time smiling behind me.
And all this time I thought you were Father Time ;)
Well, I don't know about Father Time, but the Sandman is singing my song....

Quoting 310. BaltimoreBrian:
And all this time I thought you were Father Time ;)


He's father time's great, great, grand father...

Sorry gro, had to get you back for that last comment. Mine are health related too.

BB - Gro went to the drugstore today and a "Clean up on Aisle 4" went out.
You could take the Bus... that ought to make you run for the Airport.
Where's the Night Shift?
Something about all this just doesn't set well with me. A week later and we still don't know where the plane is--we don't even know if it crashed! All we know right now is that it stopped transmitting with no notice, and was tracked by satellite for 4 hours after that. The fact that the shut-down communications system was likely a result of "manual intervention" points to some kind of terrorism. This is unjustified speculation at this point, but what if the terrorism group responsible for the hacking (if that's indeed what happened) now has a fully functionable Boeing 777 in their hands for later use?
The cold front's effects were quite noticeable at sunrise today. It was refreshing with temps around 50F and a nice breeze. Today felt like most cool late season days here under full sun. In the shade, you feel the cool, but if you are in or near anything taking on sunlight, it feels quite warm (even at 65F). Tonight is not quite as cool as I thought it would be. I have definitely experienced chilly nights in mid-March here, but this was not forecast to be record cold for this time of year in Central FL anyways.
Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Something about all this just doesn't set well with me. A week later and we still don't know where the plane is--we don't even know if it crashed! All we know right now is that it stopped transmitting with no notice, and was tracked by satellite for 4 hours after that. The fact that the shut-down communications system was likely a result of "manual intervention" points to some kind of terrorism. This is unjustified speculation at this point, but what if the terrorism group responsible for the hacking (if that's indeed what happened) now has a fully functionable Boeing 777 in their hands for later use?


That would not be good.
Quoting 316. HurrMichaelOrl:
The cold front's effects were quite noticeable at sunrise today. It was refreshing with temps around 50F and a nice breeze. Today felt like most cool late season days here under full sun. In the shade, you feel the cool, but if you are in or near anything taking on sunlight, it feels quite warm (even at 65F). Tonight is not quite as cool as I thought it would be. I have definitely experienced chilly nights in mid-March here, but this was not forecast to be record cold for this time of year in Central FL anyways.


Most bizzare incident in a long time
Quoting 318. nwobilderburg:


Most bizzare incident in a long time


It doesn't seem much like a depressurization accident. Too much would have to fall in place for that too happen.
The Texarkana Terror

The Mississippi Mess

Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Something about all this just doesn't set well with me. A week later and we still don't know where the plane is--we don't even know if it crashed! All we know right now is that it stopped transmitting with no notice, and was tracked by satellite for 4 hours after that. The fact that the shut-down communications system was likely a result of "manual intervention" points to some kind of terrorism. This is unjustified speculation at this point, but what if the terrorism group responsible for the hacking (if that's indeed what happened) now has a fully functionable Boeing 777 in their hands for later use?


a plane being repainted at some remote airport that could possibly being disguised as an US flight and flown back into the US to target something bigger..and who knows what it could be carrying..

yes its late and its all speculation but very concerning that they can't find this plane..

CNN even said that if this had crashed in the ocean there would still be some floating light weighted materials visible..the fact that none of this is detected just makes this whole story more bizarre..due to the US more involved makes something is more suspect than a crash..

good night all..we'll see what we wake up to tomorrow..
Time to Bail - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Hope for Answers Soon - GN ALL
Ohio may have their snow rankings increased. So may Philly and NYC.



GFS is interesting. The storm happens at night so high sun angle will not be a factor.





The snow seems overdone in early afternoon.

The detached area of light snow over the Delaware Valley is odd.

Hey all.

I read yesterday that TCID is currently allowing for 40% irrigation in our system, which while isn't great is a darned sight better than what it looked like back in January, which is to say nothing. Water will run for all orders placed until July 31 or the Lahontan Reservoir reaching 8000 acre-feet, whichever comes first.

This could be adjusted upward, if we get any late storms. So far it doesn't look like it - but our pasture's looking better than I expected. I think the goat poop and our paying attention to the berms is starting to improve the neglect from years of poorly managed water from the previous owners.

And Little Baby Eight is looking good, *and* being a mom seems to have pushed Lily up in the herd ranking. She's not getting pushed around like she was before.
Very late in the season for ice in the North Carolina piedmont



Quoting 324. BaltimoreBrian:
Ohio may have their snow rankings increased. So may Philly and NYC.





Funny. Monday is one of our built-in snow makeup days. Wouldn't it be comical if that was cancelled due to snow?
The following are Bufkit model outputs for snow in some major metro areas with very high seasonal totals. Right-click to enlarge.

Chicago



Indianapolis



Detroit



Cincinnati



Columbus, OH



Philadelphia



LaGuardia NYC



Can't forget Baltimore, even though we are not highly ranked this year.

Quoting 331. BaltimoreBrian:
The following are Bufkit model outputs for snow in some major metro areas with very high seasonal totals. Right-click to enlarge.

Chicago



Indianapolis



Detroit



Cincinnati



Columbus, OH



Philadelphia



LaGuardia NYC



Can't forget Baltimore, even though we are not highly ranked this year.



Odd what an hour's difference makes, huh?
Chilly morning - 48 degrees on my station.
But quick warm up today and nothing but 80s after today. 7 day for Fort Myers Fl.
Good Morning...48 here right now..................
no 80's here this coming week but Monday stormy......
the whole east coast monday..............
UKMET for early monday..alot of rain coming folks..
and some chance of supercells monday.......
well storm is still 3 days away from florida..we'll have to watch the models thru the weekend..could weaken..could get a bit stronger..we'll see, texas/LA and the north central gulf states get it thru the weekend..lets see what happens there..im hoping for just a good rain event..
wel its going to be one stormy monday here by me....
all the models say storms monday..we'll see what happens....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.LONG TERM...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEEK PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST BREEZY OR EVEN
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A 100 TO 130 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE HWO PACKAGE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
Quoting 306. VAbeachhurricanes:
0z NAM shows a heck of a system

I'm patiently waiting..Only three more days to see if we have a all snow event or rain.
Good morning.

Excellent morning in San Juan.

Boy the SE US especially FL is in for a wet end to the month. 06Z GFS even hints at a STS forming near FL at the end of the month.




I was just going to put that up lol

Quoting 345.
StormTrackerScott:

Boy the SE US especially FL is in for a wet end to the month. 06Z GFS even hints at a STS forming near FL at the end of the month.

Quoting 347. SFLWeatherman:


GFS shows what could be the first name system of the year. Of course its way out in fantasy land but it is in the general idea of what we can expect this hurricane season and that's homegrown systems

Lot of warm water near FL for this time of year.

Quoting 348. StormTrackerScott:


GFS shows what could be the first name system of the year. Of course its way out in fantasy land but it is in the general idea of what we can expect this hurricane season and that's homegrown systems


I'd rather Arthur be a hurricane -- for once.

I'll wait. :)
It is on FIM 8
Speaking of warming the Nino regions have really warmed the last couple of days. Makes sense as there is a significant Kelvin Wave about to surface.




Well in other news its Friday! Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Severe Weather Threat Returns This Weekend
Saturday
•Where/when: Scattered severe t-storms by afternoon in central/northeast Texas, into southern Oklahoma, spreading into east Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana Sat. night.
•Threats: Damaging wind gusts, large hail, perhaps a few tornadoes.
•Potential cities: Dallas | Austin | Hous



Sunday
•Where: Scattered severe t-storms from southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, into at least parts of the Florida Panhandle.
•Threats: Thunderstorms may organize into a squall line with damaging wind gusts, perhaps a few tornadoes.
•Potential cities: New Orleans | Mobile | Tallahassee