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Snow, ice paralyze South; Nor'easter aims at New England; deadly floods in Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on January 11, 2011

Much of the nation's South remains paralyzed today by a major winter storm that left up to a foot of snow and dangerous ice accumulations in its wake. Six states have declared states of emergency, and travel is extremely hazardous in the affected region, including Atlanta, where at least five closures of major interstates occurred this morning due to severe icing. The storm began Sunday in northeast Texas and tracked eastward, bringing snow amounts as high as 7 - 8 inches to northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas, 9 - 11 inches to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Tennessee. As of 3am CST, the heaviest snow as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary occurred at Cashiers, North Carolina, 12.5 inches. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Wrightsville, which received 1.5" of ice. Aiken, South Carolina received 1" of ice, and numerous locations in South Carolina, Central Georgia, and Central Alabama received over 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4" were also reported in northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and western Arkansas. Dangerous travel conditions will persist across the affected region the rest of today, as temperatures will struggle to reach 40°.


Figure 1. Snow and ice at North Carolina's Charlotte airport caused travel delays yesterday, and thousands of flights were canceled Sunday and Monday across the Southeast U.S. due to the severe winter storm that hit the region. Image credit: wunderphotographer robb04047.

Major Nor'easter expected for New York City and Boston
Today's snow storm has pushed off the coast of North Carolina, and is expected to "bomb" into a classic Nor'easter off the coast of New England tonight through Wednesday. Up to a foot of snow is possible for New York City, Boston, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The heaviest snow--up to 16 inches--will likely fall across central Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, western Rhode Island, and Long Island. Today's Nor'easter will not be as intense as the December 26 blizzard, however. The winds from today's storm are expected to remain less than 35 mph, resulting in only minor coastal flooding and an absence of blizzard conditions (frequent wind gusts over 35 mph or sustained winds over 35 mph, plus visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least three consecutive hours.)

Deadly flash flood hits Australia
Flood-weary Queensland, Australia suffered a new flooding disaster yesterday when freak rains of six inches fell in just 30 minutes near Toowoomba. The resulting flash flood killed nine people and left 59 missing. The flood waters poured into the Brisbane River, causing it to overflow, and significant flooding of low-lying areas in Brisbane, Australia's third largest city with some 2 million people, is expected on Thursday. As I discussed last week, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains. The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 19, and done $5 billion in damage. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.


Figure 2. Remarkable 5-minute YouTube video showing the sad fate of a row of parked cars when a nearby small stream experiences a flash flood, sweeping away dozens of the cars. A note to the wise: Two minutes into the video, we see a man enter the flash flood to save his car. He is successful, but his actions were extremely risky--most flash flood deaths occur when cars with people inside get swept away. I would not have attempted to save my car in that situation.

Jeff Masters
Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville
Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not!
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not!
Sunny, warm South Carolina?
Icicles for Treats
Icicles for Treats

Flood Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Got my food, got my wood and I got my adult beverages. Bring it on.
I see you are prepared for it... Good job.
Mornin Doc, my mother in Southeastern Arkansas got 8" of snow. Not much ice thankfully, but a significant snow for that area.

And do you have any inside information on whether Les Miles is gonna take the Michigan coaching job?

LOL...just kidding :)
Nice update, Doc.

Another round for the Northeast I guess. And yes, adult beverages are a must.
good morning guys how ya'll doing
Aqua. Posted to you on the last blog. Somewhere around Monday probably. Weather permitting. One of us will stay up here as long as needed (see last post). Success rate runs around 7 percent unfortunately.
That Toowoomba urban flash flood video is amazing. I read it was caused by a cell dumping 6" of rain in just 30 minutes IrishTimes says 6" in 36 hours. No, AP says 6" in 30 minutes. I'll go with that for now...
6 inches in 30 minutes!!!!!!

That is not an extreme weather event. That is just down right freaky!
Snowing here again, but nothing showing on radar.
We get rain like that in the Keys from time to time but it usually last about 3 minutes. 12" an hour for 30 minutes is insane. Plus in the Keys there is nothing to hold water except where DEP has mandated no storm water runoff. Key West would never flood with the old school storm drains.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Aqua. Posted to you on the last blog. Somewhere around Monday probably. Weather permitting. One of us will stay up here as long as needed (see last post). Success rate runs around 7 percent unfortunately.

I've got similar issues in my own immediate family; I wish your child the best.
Thanks very much Nea. As does House, But Hollywood makes him functional.
will keep ya'll in my thoughts, chillin
and your family as well, Nea
The sad thing is when your young, strong, healthy, have great life skills, etc. and still choose to make the wrong choices. May sound hypocritical as I sip my Irish coffee but we at least we all need to be functional addicts IMO.
Life "Is what it is". You have to make the best of it with what your delt. Me, I choose to look for the good. This ain't no dress rehearsal you know!
whoa whoa

does irish coffee mean you're drinking alcohol at 10:30 in the morning?
17. JRRP
Quoting aquak9:
whoa whoa

does irish coffee mean you're drinking alcohol at 10:30 in the morning?

Why not? ;-)
Quoting aquak9:
and your family as well, Nea

Thank you.
Wait!!! I am kinda just stuck here with this wonderful weather that nature threw my way. Same thing happens with Hurricanes. You bust your butt preparing then sit back and enjoy. My lovely wife had enough and went to bed early the morning of Wilma during the Atlantic surge. I'm like, "Get up baby, this is costing us around a grand a minute. We might as well enjoy it". The Gulf surge followed abot 5 hours later. 5' of water in our shop. 100k plus. oh well., we're still here.
In other news, the National Hurricane Center is now officially named, well, umm, the National Hurricane Center.

"The National Hurricane Center has officially changed its name from Tropical Prediction Center to National Hurricane Center. Although the name change took effect during 2010, NHC products will not reflect the new name until January 10, 2011 at 1200 UTC (7AM EST)."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_name_change.php?large

Uh, okay.
My thoughts are with you both, Chillin & Nea. Watching a child go through this must be so hard......... Animals can be a great source of therapy & healing. Come on up, we have lots of loving donkeys and fire wood to be cut - GREAT THERAPY!
I agree ella

chainsawing firewood and holding baby animals

is GREAT therapy

but I guess irish coffee has its place, too
Good morning all!

Yesterday's forecast for my area showed a freeze for tonight of 29F and freezing temperatures would last for about 10 hours. Today's forecast shows a colder and longer lasting freeze tonight and a freeze for Wednesday and Thursday nights as well. What changed over 24 hours? Has this deepened more than they originally thought it would?

Keeper, could you slow the fans' ( I know you have to have more than one fan now LOL ) RPM down about 30,000 RPM? The Texas Gulf Coast area would appreciate this. Well, at least, I know that I would. Anything you could do to help will be GREATLY appreciated. We don't have any slopes to ice sled down. Unless you want to count the over passes?
THEY LOST IN THE LAST TWO SECONDS OF THE GAME!!!!!!

AAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!
Quoting lilElla:
My thoughts are with you both, Chillin & Nea. Watching a child go through this must be so hard......... Animals can be a great source of therapy & healing. Come on up, we have lots of loving donkeys and fire wood to be cut - GREAT THERAPY!


I must have missed something important. What is up Chillin' and Nea? Is there anything I can do to help?
All's good! Didn't not intend to turn this into a rehab blog. Lovin' the weather! Going riding for a bit. Thanks all!!! BBL.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I must have missed something important. What is up Chillin' and Nea? Is there anything I can do to help?
And I get cutting firewood, but who in their right mind cuts up donkeys and why?
Quoting NRAamy:
THEY LOST IN THE LAST TWO SECONDS OF THE GAME!!!!!!

AAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!


Always disappointing, isn't it?
If only all coal producing regions would flood.

what if we change the word coal, to oil?

not nice
cuddle the donkeys
cut the firewood

not the other way around
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
I have little sympathy for Australia. A high COAL producing region floods in one of the highest per capita CO2 emitters in the world. They are reaping what they have sown. If only all coal producing regions would flood.
Perfect. Thanks.

Let's blown up kids that aren't believers while we're at it, too.
Sorry Atmo - we have lots of donkeys to love and lots of wood to be cut. Sound better? ;-)
Quoting lilElla:
Sorry Atmo - we have lots of donkeys to love and lots of wood to be cut. Sound better? ;-)
Ohhh.

(Sorry. Just couldn't help it.)
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
I have little sympathy for Australia. A high COAL producing region floods in one of the highest per capita CO2 emitters in the world. They are reaping what they have sown. If only all coal producing regions would flood.


I kinda get what you are saying. Still, a loss of life is never good. Using their loss of life as a prime example of things to come is not something to you would want to use to say, "See, I was right!". There are many other and more benign examples that can and are used. People dieing in floods is not going to change anyone's mind at this point in time.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Perfect. Thanks.

Let's blown up kids that aren't believers while we're at it, too.

That movie was in poor taste. The denialists will soon be unable to show their faces in public without getting booed. Oh wait thats already happening! :)
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/04/brooklyn-boos-koch/
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
I have little sympathy for Australia. A high COAL producing region floods in one of the highest per capita CO2 emitters in the world. They are reaping what they have sown. If only all coal producing regions would flood.

Umm...what? You're aware that there are at least 30 dead and 78 missing from yesterday's flood, right? Why would you wish that misery to be visited upon anyone?
Actually, That's why I've never bought a splitter. Keeps ya young. Got a Quadrafire stove. Run only the fan on your cental and it keeps the whole house in the 60's when it's in the teens. emits something like 1.2 grams of particulate matter an hour and burns very little wood.
Quoting lilElla:
My thoughts are with you both, Chillin & Nea. Watching a child go through this must be so hard......... Animals can be a great source of therapy & healing. Come on up, we have lots of loving donkeys and fire wood to be cut - GREAT THERAPY!
no one is cutting up donkeys..... especially not aqua..... she's a nurturer, not a torturer....
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I kinda get what you are saying. Still, a loss of life is never good. Using their loss of life as a prime example of things to come is not something to you would want to use to say, "See, I was right!". There are many other and more benign examples that can and are used. People dieing in floods is not going to change anyone's mind at this point in time.
True. I dont wish death on anyone. But the science states this will happen and people sadly will die. The people I feel sorry for are those in the 3rd world who have done little to contribute to this crisis. They are the true victims.
Morning Kids...Hope everyone is staying warm.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Umm...what? You're aware that there are at least 30 dead and 78 missing from yesterday's flood, right? Why would you wish that misery to be visited upon anyone?

I thought it was 8. The only people I could wish it on are those bringing ruin to untold millions. Like the kkkoch brothers and the scumbag oil lobbyists. Soon they will be booed wherever they go! http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/04/brooklyn-boos-koch/
Quoting NRAamy:
no one is cutting up donkeys..... especially not aqua..... she's a nurturer, not a torturer....


but I do love using the chainsaw

hi melwerle- no the SE is freeezing it's donkeys off
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
True. I dont wish death on anyone. But the science states this will happen and people sadly will die. The people I feel sorry for are those in the 3rd world who have done little to contribute to this crisis. They are the true victims.


I can completely agree with you on this. When some of the people on the bus are stating that the bus has no brakes end up in the same situation as those stating the brakes are fine as they approach the crest of the hill then you can easily have more sympathy for those that gave out the warning. .... Was that a run on sentence or was I just running on?
Seems the major parts of that snow storm passed us in KC, I measured 6.5 inches which is major for us these days.
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:

I thought it was 8. The only people I could wish it on are those bringing ruin to untold millions. Like the kkkoch brothers and the scumbag oil lobbyists. Soon they will be booed wherever they go! http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/04/brooklyn-boos-koch/

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/queensland-floods/deadly-wave-heads-for-brisbane/story-fn7 iwx3v-1225985949229

But that's beside the point; one is too many. You know, it's one thing to be extremely and passionately frustrated about those protecting their pocketbooks and stock portfolios at great cost to the planet--but it's something entirely different to wish them harm. Or worse.
Quoting Neapolitan:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/queensland-floods/deadly-wave-heads-for-brisbane/story-fn7 iwx3v-1225985949229

But that's beside the point; one is too many. You know, it's one thing to be extremely and passionately frustrated about those protecting their pocketbooks and stock portfolios at great cost to the planet--but it's something entirely different to wish them harm. Or worse.
Its not up for us to dispense justice. Only God can do that. I bet they will be facing some "global warming" where they are going.
Morning Aquak - I'm so sorry that you're freezing...time to kick on the heat, spark up the fireplace and hang out at home!

I was supposed to go to NYC yesterday and return at some point today. I cancelled when I saw the snow heading that way. I have a San Diego "winter jacket" but it's no defense against THAT kind of weather.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Actually, That's why I've never bought a splitter. Keeps ya young. Got a Quadrafire stove. Run only the fan on your cental and it keeps the whole house in the 60's when it's in the teens. emits something like 1.2 grams of particulate matter an hour and burns very little wood.

Chillin...Growing up in Ohio my ex stayed healthy splittin'. I remember you saying you have a place in Blue Ridge. Must be beautiful with the snow.(as long as you don't have to go out). Blue Ridge is a wonderful place. Spent many days in the area. Blairsville, Ellijay, Helen , and my favorite Dahlonega.
Chillin', leaving for the keys Saturday. Hope the weather stays good, hoping to dive the Speigal Saturday.
Not sure of your family issues but I will put an extra prayer in for you tonight.
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
Its not up for us to dispense justice. Only God can do that. I bet they will be facing some "global warming" where they are going.


BBL - everyone, stay safe and warm.
Looks like it'll be a little choppy with low to mod. vis. Enjoy though. Waters a little cool for me this time of year.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Chillin...Growing up in Ohio my ex stayed healthy splittin'. I remember you saying you have a place in Blue Ridge. Must be beautiful with the snow.(as long as you don't have to go out). Blue Ridge is a wonderful place. Spent many days in the area. Blairsville, Ellijay, Helen , and my favorite Dahlonega.
Chillin', leaving for the keys Saturday. Hope the weather stays good, hoping to dive the Speigal Saturday.
Not sure of your family issues but I will put an extra prayer in for you tonight.


Link
brisbane has been dry until of recent. florida has a similiar climate and its been dry too. 2011 hum.
Quoting atmoaggie:
In other news, the National Hurricane Center is now officially named, well, umm, the National Hurricane Center.

"The National Hurricane Center has officially changed its name from Tropical Prediction Center to National Hurricane Center. Although the name change took effect during 2010, NHC products will not reflect the new name until January 10, 2011 at 1200 UTC (7AM EST)."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_name_change.php?large

Uh, okay.


LOL, like since when? Funny since they always called themselves the "National Hurricane Center", even before last year (why is their URL www.nhc.noaa.gov and not www.tpc.noaa.gov).
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOL, like since when? Funny since they always called themselves the "National Hurricane Center", even before last year (why is their URL www.nhc.noaa.gov and not www.tpc.noaa.gov).
*shrug*
All of this moisture that's been headed north is taking its toll on the ice. Won't take much once the normal melt season begins, hardly any volume left to it. Also noticed that the south pole would most likely be sea ice free right now if it wasn't for glacier runoff.

sheesh Finally got comfortable with facing the Wrath of Thor...

...and now I gotta worry about gettin' smote by antimatter particle beams???
Greetings from the frozen tundra of DFW, TX.

At 32.79 N & 97.5 W, we are at a "balmy " 26F/wind chill 12 F. That is after our invigorating morning low of 21 F!!

We have a barometric pressure on 30.68"/1039 mb and slowly rising.

A ridge of High pressure is extending from NE of Barrow, AK southward all the way into North Central TX.
ENOUGH about Global Warming please!! There is nothing on this topic that talks about GW. We need to focus on the TOPIC, floods, the weekend snow/ice storm and Nor'easter. Cut the GW crap! You guys do this on every blog!!!
hi bordonaro!!!

EEEK! that's horrid weather. Man I feel like I'm living in paradise right now. And no, it's not very paradise-like, socks AND shoes are in order.
Quoting reedzone:
ENOUGH about Global Warming please!! There is nothing on this topic that talks about GW. We need to focus on the TOPIC, floods, the weekend snow/ice storm and Nor'easter. Cut the GW crap! You guys do this on every blog!!!

:O)..It will be OK!!

Big NOR' EASTER is coming :O)!!!
yeesh, reed..... count to ten... breathe deep..... OHM.........
Quoting aquak9:
hi bordonaro!!!

EEEK! that's horrid weather. Man I feel like I'm living in paradise right now. And no, it's not very paradise-like, socks AND shoes are in order.

At least the biggest slice of Arctic air will by pass FL. You have already had your two good shots so far this year.

And, oh, by the way, thanks for sharing, the cold air with us :O)
Quoting NRAamy:
yeesh, reed..... count to ten... breathe deep..... OHM.........


Koom-by-ya..ZEN moment, hmmmmmmm...
Quoting aquak9:
whoa whoa

does irish coffee mean you're drinking alcohol at 10:30 in the morning?

Only if it's REAL Irish Coffee :O)
Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.
Quoting reedzone:
ENOUGH about Global Warming please!! There is nothing on this topic that talks about GW. We need to focus on the TOPIC, floods, the weekend snow/ice storm and Nor'easter. Cut the GW crap! You guys do this on every blog!!!


Well, Dr. Masters mentioned it in his entry:

The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July.
For Mastic Beach, Long Island, my hometown...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

NYZ078>081-177-179-112100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.

reedzone.Human nature...We have a tendancy to persistantly talk about things we have a hard time of controlling, Global warming, taxes, hurricanes, and Lindsay Lohan
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.


From the main blog, then:

"...The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains. The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July..."

You do realize that the "believers in the science behind the theory of anthropogenic global warming" have an obligation to tie every severe weather event to Global Warming, don't you?

It's in their by-laws...
Someone got lost in the High reeds?

Im a tad confused,..seems.


Go fig'ya...
67. reedzone 9:58 AM PST on January 11, 2011

Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.



simple solution.... don't come on here.....
75. JRRP
Quoting NRAamy:
67. reedzone 9:58 AM PST on January 11, 2011

Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.



simple solution.... don't come on here.....

lol


More snow on top of the record setting Saturday snow. This started out as ice pellets and quickly changed to real snow. When that snow had just fallen it was about four times deeper. It has been consolidating for 3-4 days.
Quoting hcubed:


From the main blog, then:

"...The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains. The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July..."

You do realize that the "believers in the science behind the theory of anthropogenic global warming" have an obligation to tie every severe weather event to Global Warming, don't you?

It's in their by-laws...


Right - those SSTs wouldn't be at record warm levels if global warming wasn't occurring, La Nina or not - just compare the variation, mostly from ENSO, to the overall increase.



Duh!
Quoting NRAamy:
67. reedzone 9:58 AM PST on January 11, 2011

Sorry I get tired of coming on here and hearing you all talk about GW when it's not even the topic.



simple solution.... don't come on here.....


People on here drew away people like Weather456, Drakeon, StormW, Hurricane23, ect.. Though I won't back out. If there is a good blog from the doc, I will read and respond.
You set yourself up on that one reedzone... I still like you, but when you get older and more mature, you will learn to (look before you leap)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Well, Dr. Masters mentioned it in his entry:

The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Nina event that has been in place since July.


Really? Hmm....because according to Reynolds V2, 1998 was the warmest year on record off of eastern Australia by a long shot.

Jan-Nov 2010 SST Anomalies (Dec data not in yet):



Jan-Dec 1998 SST Anomalies:



Time series of Reynolds V2 SST data bounded by the region from -30S to -15S, 150E to 180E:



I don't know exactly which lat/lon region he was referring to, but La Ninas generally cool the waters north of 15S east of Australia, thus confining most of the warming effect south of that.
Climate change has everything to do with the current weather events, so it is not off topic. How do you think the Earth has managed to come back to a cool state after so many disasters? Excess heat = more flooding, the energy is transferred into the upper atmosphere where it is able to radiate out to space quicker (because it rises through the layer of insulation caused by greenhouse gases, and there is less pressure so less particles at high altitudes). If some process like this did not happen, the climate would have never recovered (from high concentrations of insulating gases and temperatures) as the geothermal heat emitted below the surface would continuously build up within the atmosphere.

People on here drew away people like Weather456, Drakeon, StormW, Hurricane23, ect.. Though I won't back out. If there is a good blog from the doc, I will read and respond.
Good defense except for one you mentioned...All I will say in that matter is "I am female" nuff said
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
I have little sympathy for Australia. A high COAL producing region floods in one of the highest per capita CO2 emitters in the world. They are reaping what they have sown. If only all coal producing regions would flood.


This is the kind of over heated talk that is not needed to get from A to B.
Quoting reedzone:
ENOUGH about Global Warming please!! There is nothing on this topic that talks about GW. We need to focus on the TOPIC, floods, the weekend snow/ice storm and Nor'easter. Cut the GW crap! You guys do this on every blog!!!

Would you care for a cup of tea, reed? It's chamomile; helps to calm the nerves...

Anyway, you do realize that the "dis-believers in the science behind the theory of anthropogenic global warming" have an obligation to deny that any severe weather event--along with pretty much anything else--is related to the changing climate, don't you?

It's in their by-laws...

;-)
Nea.. The problem I have is not in the by-laws.....It's in my ex in-laws. Maybe similar, but different....
Actually it sounds like an irrelevant topic, BUT. I have found that the Lipton green diet tea with citrus is one of the most satisying teas around. And for the price it is a bargain.
I would like some chamomile tea...
aren't ex in-laws considered out-laws?
There is AGW and TGW. I'm for TGW.
Nea....Anyone ever tell you that you lool like Victor Newman?
And if we expand the Reynolds data to surround all of Australia, 1998 still wins.

Getting ready to make a trip through this along the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. Will take some pics on the way.

I don't mind a little home dug sassafras, though studys show it's not to healthy for rats and mice.
Still spittin' snow here off and on. None showin' on radar though.
Quoting Levi32:
And if we expand the Reynolds data to surround all of Australia, 1998 still wins.





That is the official data according to the BOM, not according to a denialist showing some cherry-picked (defining the Australia region as whatever you like the most, not how the BOM defines it) data (i.e. you).

Also, some SST datasets have a known issue in the past decade:

The deniers were half right: The Met Office Hadley Centre had flawed data — but it led them to UNDERestimate the rate of recent global warming

Claims that global warming has slowed down over the past decade were partly based on faulty data. Instead, the rate of global warming was underestimated because of a new way of measuring sea-surface temperatures, suggests a new study….

[Lead author John] Kennedy says the underestimation of the change in sea-surface temperature could account for up to 0.03 °C of the apparent slowdown in global temperatures. The correction could mean that 2010 will be the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998 and 2005.
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1214 PM CST Tuesday Jan 11 2011


Update...


..18z aviation discussion...


Latest satellite analysis shows that the stratus deck producing
MVFR restrictions has begun to break up a bit. This clearing
process will continue over the next couple of hours...allowing for
a return to VFR condiitions at all terminals between 20-22z. The
only impact after skies clear will be strong winds of around 15
knots out of the north affecting kmsy and knew through the
forecast period. These winds are the result of colder air moving
over the warmer lake waters...resulting in increased thermal
mixing which in turn allows stronger boundary layer winds to
descend to the surface. 32




&&


Previous discussion... /issued 1049 am CST Tuesday Jan 11 2011/


Update...
klix 12z sounding showed a much shallower saturated inversion than
yesterday morning...and satellite showed a clearing line moving
southeast about 35 miles per hour across northern and western Louisiana with
breaks in clouds developing in some coastal areas. Updated the sky
cover grids to better account for the timing from cloudy to mostly
sunny. Even with sunshine...north-northwest winds across snow
cover not too far to our north will not allow temperatures to
respond as they normally would. Have lowered the highs today by a
few degrees in most areas. Looking at new guidance...a hard
freeze/ freeze is still expected the next three nights...and the
mav guidance may not have the cold bias that it had with a couple
earlier events this winter given the optimal Arctic high pressure
setup and close proximity of snow cover. 22/dew point


Previous discussion... /issued 813 am CST Tuesday Jan 11 2011/


Update...


Sounding discussion...
no problems with the flight this morning. Precipitable water value
of 0.44 inches with a lifted index of 23.1. Winds are relatively
light and out of the northwest near the surface and out of the
west aloft.


Cl


Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CST Tuesday Jan 11 2011/


Short term...
low clouds over the region a function of cold air advection moving
over snow and ice pack upwind of the forecast area. The deck is
rather shallow with some breaks developing. Clouds are expected to
thin to partly cloudy coverage as stratocumulus streaks during
daytime heating before clearing fully after sunset tonight.
Temperatures will remain cold today despite any sunshine. Arctic
surge will also bring an increase in winds to produce colder wind
chills this evening and overnight. A hard freeze and freeze
warning will be posted for tonight and will be needed for next
couple of nights as Arctic air remains in place with very little
modification anticipated.


Long term...
models show a series of short-wave impulses dropping into a mean
trough position along the Mississippi Valley to keep the Arctic
surges dropping into the Central Plains and Gulf states well into
next week. The frequency of resurgences are about every three days
with the longer range global models showing even colder air
entering the area middle of next week along sharp thermal trough.
While much of this forecast package is primarily a temperature
forecast...some sensible weather may be noted with warm air
advection sea fog developments Sunday night and a rain chance
ahead of frontal passage Monday night. Otherwise...much below
normal temperatures will be the rule for much of the next 7 days
with only a brief respite over the weekend. 24/rr
Chillin' ...used to boil Sassafras in Ohio way back.... Makes a great healthy tea... Easy to spot the tree.... Leaf looks like 3 fingers
Quoting MichaelSTL:




That is the official data according to the BOM, not according to a denialist showing some cherry-picked (defining the Australia region as whatever you like the most, not how the BOM defines it) data (i.e. you).

Also, some SST datasets have a known issue in the past decade:

The deniers were half right: The Met Office Hadley Centre had flawed data %u2014 but it led them to UNDERestimate the rate of recent global warming

Claims that global warming has slowed down over the past decade were partly based on faulty data. Instead, the rate of global warming was underestimated because of a new way of measuring sea-surface temperatures, suggests a new study%u2026.

[Lead author John] Kennedy says the underestimation of the change in sea-surface temperature could account for up to 0.03 C of the apparent slowdown in global temperatures. The correction could mean that 2010 will be the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998 and 2005.


I would like then to know what the BOM defines as Australian waters in a lat/lon rectangle. I used fairly straight forward boundaries that made sense, but I'll use whatever they used. I'm just investigating using the most accurate SST data set that we have based on data since satellites started helping with SST measurements.
"The correction could mean that 2010 will be the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998 and 2005."

Funny....I thought the majority of government agencies had already declared 2010 the warmest year on record, despite satellite data from two different sources which say otherwise.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Right - those SSTs wouldn't be at record warm levels if global warming wasn't occurring, La Nina or not - just compare the variation, mostly from ENSO, to the overall increase.



Duh!


Question, then - not sure if you have the answer or not, in which case, your opinion, please:

The chart shows the departure from 61-90. When do you think they'll update the charts ending in a more recent decade? Go from 71-2000. Or, now that 2011 has started, go from 81-2010.

All would still cover a 30-year period (recommended by the World Meteorological Organization). I believe that the WMO also recommends using the latest decade available.

You'd still see the trend, right? So why use a period that ended two decades ago?
Greetings all...
Didnt Barrow,Alaska reach a new Daily High record Sunday of 33F?

Phunny we dont get that news from da locals ?

Go fig'ya

Quoting Patrap:
Didnt Barrow,Alaska reach a new Daily High record Sunday of 33F?

Phunny we dont get that news from da locals ?

Go fig'ya



Ok, that was in the middle of a winter that has been brutally cold for our state, and the warm-up was a week-long transitional period between 500mb patterns. It's not really that significant. I have seen record Barrow highs of just above freezing during the heart of winter before. It happens when you stick a 5800-meter block directly over them.


interesting... above average.. shocker.
this should be thrown out though right? this doesn't matter, but declining sea ice does.
Quoting hcubed:


Question, then - not sure if you have the answer or not, in which case, your opinion, please:

The chart shows the departure from 61-90. When do you think they'll update the charts ending in a more recent decade? Go from 71-2000. Or, now that 2011 has started, go from 81-2010.

All would still cover a 30-year period (recommended by the World Meteorological Organization). I believe that the WMO also recommends using the latest decade available.

You'd still see the trend, right? So why use a period that ended two decades ago?


If they used a more recent base period, the trend would stay the same, but it would make all of the years cooler, including past years (so it would look darn cold in the past). It doesn't matter at all what base period you use - only deniers claim that it is important (because a more recent base period makes recent years look "cooler"*).

*When the NWS goes to a 1981-2010 base period soon, I bet that we will see a whole lot of nonsense over how it is now only 1 degree warmer than "average" instead of 3.7 degrees (or however much warming occurred between 1971-2000 and 1981-2010, some areas of course cooled over this period).
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).


Maybe Levi's a Christian and just pointing out that man does not control our Climate.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).


Just because you can't find a way to counter my SST data directly doesn't mean you have to resort to name-calling and wild assumptions about my beliefs. I certainly have never done such to you, and I expected more courteous treatment in return. I'm sorry that you can't. Ignore me if you wish, but I enjoyed our little debates, even if you didn't.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).

MichaelSTL...I admire Levi with his persistance to continue reporting the weather in all aspects while us peons (myself included) try to make jokes and keep livity at it's highest acme during these times.
Way to go Levi...I am still reading everything you say, and keep up the great job.
oh goodness... here comes religion
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


interesting... above average.. shocker.
this should be thrown out though right? this doesn't matter, but declining sea ice does.


More denier nonsense:

Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). This strengthens the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas lead to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007).

In summary, Antarctic sea ice is a complex and unique phenomenon. The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case. Warming is happening - how it affects specific regions is complicated.
interesting... above average.. shocker.
this should be thrown out though right? this doesn't matter, but declining sea ice does.
..Yes VAbeach.Sea lice a a big problem here in south Florida

Quoting Bordonaro:

At least the biggest slice of Arctic air will by pass FL. You have already had your two good shots so far this year.

And, oh, by the way, thanks for sharing, the cold air with us :O)


Until next week that is lol
Quoting MichaelSTL:


More denier nonsense:

Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). This strengthens the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas lead to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007).

In summary, Antarctic sea ice is a complex and unique phenomenon. The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case. Warming is happening - how it affects specific regions is complicated.


okay so the gaining of sea ice is caused by other factors that are over riding global warming, however theres only one way the artic could be losing ice right? it cant be an explanation like the one you just gave for the Antarctic gaining it?
Quoting reedzone:


Maybe Levi's a Christian and just pointing out that man does not control our Climate.


What does that have to do with anything?

Energy and global warming news for January 5, 2011: Scientist proves conservatism and understanding of climate science aren’t incompatible; House Energy Chair Upton (R-MI) shows up at an oil industry event

Emanuel sees himself as a conservative. He believes marriage is between a man and a woman. He backs a strong military. He almost always votes Republican and admires Ronald Reagan.

A physicist by training, John Cook is an evangelical Christian who runs the website skepticalscience.com, which seeks to debunk climate change deniers’ arguments.
Control it?

well,were modifying it on a Grand scale sport.


We have the Power to destroy all Life on the Planet in a Matter of Hours with 32,578 Nukes ,,

On any Given day.

Food for thought.......


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
oh goodness... here comes religion
Quoting Patrap:
Control it?

well,were modifying it on a Grand scale sport.


We have the Power to destroy all Life on the Planet in a Matter of Hours with 32,578 Nukes ,,

On any Given day.

Food for thought.......


You do know that the whole nuclear winter businesses is a gross exaggeration, right?
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 1:09 PM EST on January 11, 2011


... Dangerous driving conditions continue across north Georgia...

A winter storm that tracked through Georgia Sunday night and Monday
dumped snow... sleet... and freezing rain across the state. With the
cold temperatures and low level moisture in place... freezing
drizzle and light snow persisted through Tuesday morning.
There is still a slight chance for light snow to continue into
tonight across extreme north Georgia... and accumulations... if
any... will be light. Driving conditions will remain treacherous
across north and much of central Georgia through Wednesday.

North Georgia still has snow... sleet and ice on the ground. With
temperatures remaining below freezing across the area... this will
allow for any moisture on the sidewalks and roadways to freeze and
remain frozen. Temperatures across north Georgia will struggle to
reach above freezing through Thursday and this will provide little
chance for the ice to melt and conditions to improve.




Looks like a 3-4" liquid equiv bullseye for central Long Island. If that is even remotely right, they'll need to find a new catchy phrase for call this next storm. But, for now, it's just model fiction.


Link

~ Scott "Long Time Reader, First Time Poster"
Now the real edgy stuff will flow...


I think atmo,,,u musta missed da pernt.
Quoting Patrap:
Control it?

well,were modifying it on a Grand scale sport.


We have the Power to destroy all Life on the Planet in a Matter of Hours with 32,578 Nukes ,,

On any Given day.

Food for thought.......



Patrap, Don't know where you got the total nukes, but I do agree with you... Lot's of crazies out there, not only on a local level, but some of these are rulers of countries. Did I mention the name "Kim Jong"?
Look's like the blog is in melt down mode.

Quoting scottstraley:
Looks like a 3-4" liquid equiv bullseye for central Long Island. If that is even remotely right, they'll need to find a new catchy phrase for call this next storm. But, for now, it's just model fiction.


Link

~ Scott "Long Time Reader, First Time Poster"


Welcome to Wunderground :)
123. JRRP
Quoting MichaelSTL:


More denier nonsense:

Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). This strengthens the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas lead to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007).

In summary, Antarctic sea ice is a complex and unique phenomenon. The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case. Warming is happening - how it affects specific regions is complicated.

do you have the artic graph ?
Nuke Totals.

Those are estimates I have from number of cited DoD sources.

China,,and France have debatable numbers,..as delivery systems like MIRVED and other Intercontinental systems skew the actuals.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 1:09 PM EST on January 11, 2011


... Dangerous driving conditions continue across north Georgia...

A winter storm that tracked through Georgia Sunday night and Monday
dumped snow... sleet... and freezing rain across the state. With the
cold temperatures and low level moisture in place... freezing
drizzle and light snow persisted through Tuesday morning.
There is still a slight chance for light snow to continue into
tonight across extreme north Georgia... and accumulations... if
any... will be light. Driving conditions will remain treacherous
across north and much of central Georgia through Wednesday.

North Georgia still has snow... sleet and ice on the ground. With
temperatures remaining below freezing across the area... this will
allow for any moisture on the sidewalks and roadways to freeze and
remain frozen. Temperatures across north Georgia will struggle to
reach above freezing through Thursday and this will provide little
chance for the ice to melt and conditions to improve.






You got it Chillin..Sassafras
Something interesting that shows the importance of greenhouse gasses:

The Huronian glaciation extended from 2400 Mya to 2100 Mya, during the Siderian and Rhyacian periods of the Paleoproterozoic era, triggered by the oxygen catastrophe, which oxidised the atmospheric methane (a greenhouse gas). It was one of the most severe and longest ice ages in geologic history, similar to the Snowball Earth ice ages that happened in the neoproterozoic era.



Indeed:

CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature



Zonally averaged annual-mean surface temperature change following the zeroing out of non-condensing greenhouse gases.



Ouch...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nea....Anyone ever tell you that you lool like Victor Newman?

No. Jeez, I wish. Nah, the celebrities with whom I'm most often compared are Michael Berryman and Jocelyn Wildenstein. Or their kid, if they unfortunately happened to hook up one night. ;-)

But thanks!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


More denier nonsense:

Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). This strengthens the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas lead to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007).

In summary, Antarctic sea ice is a complex and unique phenomenon. The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case. Warming is happening - how it affects specific regions is complicated.


Actually, the Southern Ocean has been getting colder during the last 20-30 years according to the most recent SST data sets.



Quoting JRRP:

do you have the artic graph ?






Quoting MichaelSTL:
Something interesting that shows the importance of greenhouse gasses:

The Huronian glaciation extended from 2400 Mya to 2100 Mya, during the Siderian and Rhyacian periods of the Paleoproterozoic era, triggered by the oxygen catastrophe, which oxidised the atmospheric methane (a greenhouse gas). It was one of the most severe and longest ice ages in geologic history, similar to the Snowball Earth ice ages that happened in the neoproterozoic era.



Indeed:

CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature



Zonally averaged annual-mean surface temperature change following the zeroing out of non-condensing greenhouse gases.



Ouch...


Nice fictional picture to drive your point home, kinda like gore, using Day After Tomorrow footage in his scientifically factual "documentary".
Quoting Neapolitan:

No. Jeez, I wish. Nah, the celebrities with whom I'm most often compared are Michael Berryman and Jocelyn Wildenstein. Or their kid, if they unfortunately happened to hook up one night. ;-)

But thanks!

Ah yes.The cat lady...But what is really scary, "She thinks she looks good"
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).


Greetings and good day;

Levi made a personal observation. He did not name call, or describe, in a rather unprofessional way, what he thinks other peoples beliefs are. You mentioned that perhaps, and I quote: “Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on.”

Your right. No member of this blog, including Levi, should be insulted either. Comments such as yours violate the community standards of this blog. Perhaps the moderators should enforce these standards on your comments. Resorting to personal attacks indicates one is perhaps too emotionally attached to an issue, and does nothing to boost ones credibility. As a member of this blog as well, I would ask for a little more civility when addressing the posts of other members. Take care, and have a better day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Quoting Levi32:


Actually, the Southern Ocean has been getting colder during the last 20 years according to the most recent SST data sets.



Ummm... ok...

Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).
Keep this up and you'll go the way of MichaelSTL a couple of years back...

The one you attack is a quality individual with a good nose for science. And has the respect of many.

Just sayin'
NASA'S Kepler Mission Discovers Its First Rocky Planet



Artist concept of Kepler-10b.
Credit: NASA.


NASA's Kepler mission confirmed the discovery of its first rocky planet, named Kepler-10b. Measuring 1.4 times the size of Earth, it is the smallest planet ever discovered outside our solar system.

The discovery of this so-called exoplanet is based on more than eight months of data collected by the spacecraft from May 2009 to early January 2010.

"All of Kepler's best capabilities have converged to yield the first solid evidence of a rocky planet orbiting a star other than our sun," said Natalie Batalha, Kepler's deputy science team lead at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., and primary author of a paper on the discovery accepted by the Astrophysical Journal. "The Kepler team made a commitment in 2010 about finding the telltale signatures of small planets in the data, and it's beginning to pay off."
Quoting Levi32:


Actually, the Southern Ocean has been getting colder during the last 20-30 years according to the most recent SST data sets.





Levi stop making graphs that obviously are bad... and should be outlawed... cmon only AGW believers can use incorrect graphs to drive there point home!
Reynolds V2 SST data, aided by satellite observations, also shows a general decline in Southern Ocean SST anomalies since the late 1980s.

Wow, I can never look on this blog without global warming talk. There are plenty of winter storms to talk about, but it's just a constant bickering for global warming. Hate to break it to you, but neither side is ever going to budge toward the other.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ummm... ok...



sweet 1950-1981 map there STL, those satellites are so much more reliable than the 2000 models...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


okay so the gaining of sea ice is caused by other factors that are over riding global warming, however theres only one way the artic could be losing ice right? it cant be an explanation like the one you just gave for the Antarctic gaining it?

The Arctic is an ocean in the heavily-populated norther hemisphere, while Antarctica is a continent in the relatively lightly-populated southern hemisphere. So, not, the dynamics are not the same at all. Not even close.
Quoting Neapolitan:

No. Jeez, I wish. Nah, the celebrities with whom I'm most often compared are Michael Berryman and Jocelyn Wildenstein. Or their kid, if they unfortunately happened to hook up one night. ;-)

But thanks!

I guess it can be a "Beauty and the Beast" scenario... Joyelyn made her self that way, but I am sure Michael Berryman is a wonderful guy... I do know he is a great actor watching "One Flew Overe the Cuckoo's Nest"
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, I can never look on this blog without global warming talk. There are plenty of winter storms to talk about, but it's just a constant bickering for global warming. Hate to break it to you, but neither side is ever going to budge toward the other.


I was pointing this out earlier, but got attacked by my comments.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ummm... ok...



Even HadSST2, which has very sketchy data in the polar regions, shows no significant trend since 1980 in the data it does have for the Southern Ocean.

from NOAA

or the Source for the SCIENCE as it stands today

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nice fictional picture to drive your point home, kinda like gore, using Day After Tomorrow footage in his scientifically factual "documentary".


People need to face reality:

Greenhouse effect

If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5]) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of radiation) is about −18 or −19 °C,[6][7] about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect.


Also, about Gore's movie (which I have never seen):

Al Gore’s movie (reviewed by a real climate scientist)

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity.



Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth accurate?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, I can never look on this blog without global warming talk. There are plenty of winter storms to talk about, but it's just a constant bickering for global warming. Hate to break it to you, but neither side is ever going to budge toward the other.


If only people would stop posting their own opinions on a subject they don't understand... well, that isn't going to happen anytime soon so unfortunately for people like you, you'll have to put up with it (no, I don't start these useless arguments masquerading as scientific "debates").
Quoting MichaelSTL:


If they used a more recent base period, the trend would stay the same, but it would make all of the years cooler, including past years (so it would look darn cold in the past). It doesn't matter at all what base period you use - only deniers claim that it is important (because a more recent base period makes recent years look "cooler"*).

*When the NWS goes to a 1981-2010 base period soon, I bet that we will see a whole lot of nonsense over how it is now only 1 degree warmer than "average" instead of 3.7 degrees (or however much warming occurred between 1971-2000 and 1981-2010, some areas of course cooled over this period).


So you're saying that choice of the averaging period has nothing to do with the trend, but everything to do with the presentation.

If a more recent base period would make recent years appear "cooler", then the choice of earlier base periods makes recent years appear "hotter".

Right?
Quoting MichaelSTL:


If only people would stop posting their own opinions on a subject they don't understand... well, that isn't going to happen anytime soon so unfortunately for people like you, you'll have to put up with it (no, I don't start these useless arguments masquerading as scientific "debates").

Writing this down on my notepad.... Stop posting my opinions, whether right or wrong.
"OK,, Got it"
Rainbow

Quoting atmoaggie:
Keep this up and you'll go the way of MichaelSTL a couple of years back...

The one you attack is a quality individual with a good nose for science. And has the respect of many.

Just sayin'


Yup, Levi knows a lot about climate science - he should publish his findings and gain worldwide fame as the person who uncovered the greatest scam ever!

Why don't they do this? Maybe they are afraid to (afraid of what).
I was pointing this out earlier, but got attacked by my comments.

it's called Tough Love.....
Nea, would you care to share a cup of chamomile tea with me?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Writing this down on my notepad.... Stop posting my opinions, whether right or wrong.
"OK,, Got it"

I have an opinion on something. When is it ok to say it.... In the words of Fire Marshall Bill "Let me show you something"
but got attacked by my comments

just eaxactly how did your comments attack you?
Quoting atmoaggie:
You do know that the whole nuclear winter businesses is a gross exaggeration, right?

Which part? And can you please define "gross"? \

Here's a link to a 2007 paper:

Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences

At any rate, no one (with the possible exception of Dr. Strangelove and his allies) would claim that detonating 32,000 nukes--or half that many, or a quarter that many, or 1% of that many--would be harmless to the atmosphere.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ummm... ok...



Watch out, that chart uses an averaging period that ended three decades ago...
Quoting Neapolitan:

The Arctic is an ocean in the heavily-populated norther hemisphere, while Antarctica is a continent in the relatively lightly-populated southern hemisphere. So, not, the dynamics are not the same at all. Not even close.


okay, saying that global warming is the ONLY reason there is ice loss in the artic, but saying there are many reasons why the Antarctic sea ice is gaining. Is very unfair, and very unscientific.
Quoting hcubed:


So you're saying that choice of the averaging period has nothing to do with the trend, but everything to do with the presentation.

If a more recent base period would make recent years appear "cooler", then the choice of earlier base periods makes recent years appear "hotter".

Right?


Or keep the base period the same, then the relative "warmth" or "coolness" of past years will remain the same, only with additional years being added. On this thread, many denialists try to compare different temperature datasets without converting them to a common base period ; GISS, with a 1951-1980 base period, is about 0.2°C warmer than the RSS satellite data, with a 1979-1998 base period, and something like 0.3°C for UAH with their new 1981-2010 base period; the satellite data also cannot be directly compared month for month (some months last year were warmer in GISS and others cooler - deniers of course only make a fuss when GISS is warmer, and also ignore the base period differences), or even year to year, given the much greater response to ENSO, with the surface data - although they match very well in the long term...
Quoting NRAamy:
but got attacked by my comments

just eaxactly how did your comments attack you?

They lit torches and got pitchforks, and went after him.
Las Vegas 41 °F Overcast
Satellite lower tropospheric temperature data which covers the vast majority of the southern pole also shows no significant trend since 1980. The graph of increasing temperatures in post #109 looks suspect based on contradictions from every data set I have looked at. This is why random graphs shouldn't be trusted on face-value without looking into the data.

Nea...Have to ask the latest on AveMaria.I see they have a Publix there now, (and I would think a Domino's Pizza) Is this going to be a total bust???
Quoting hcubed:


Watch out, that chart uses an averaging period that ended three decades ago...


Then how about this?


(1980-2009 because December 2010 isn't in yet and you can only use whole years)

If anything, that emphasizes the recent warming even more - only the past decade or so has a lot of yellows.
good one, jeffs....

;)
Quoting aquak9:
Nea, would you care to share a cup of chamomile tea with me?

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)

Always loved "Long Island Iced Tea" BUT, there is no tea in it, coloring comes from a shot of Coke
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 09U
3:00 AM WST January 12 2011
========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.5E, or 1050 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.3S 107.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.6S 109.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 113.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.6S 115.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

Shear continues to inhibit the system's development with microwave imagery showing a well exposed LLCC. The shear is forecast to decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.75 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO giving a DT of 2.5.

The system has slowed and all models indicate it will recurve towards the southeast within the next 6 to 12 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the Pilbara coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Quoting Levi32:
Satellite lower tropospheric temperature data which covers the vast majority of the southern pole also shows no significant trend since 1980. The graph of increasing temperatures in post #109 looks suspect based on contradictions from every data set I have looked at. This is why random graphs shouldn't be trusted on face-value without looking into the data.



More shear nonsense. Satellites have problems with measuring temperatures in high terrain and ice-covered areas. Here is a reconstruction based on surface data combined with satellite data (the satellite data after all needs to be calibrated to something):

Satellites Confirm Half-Century of West Antarctic Warming



The Antarctic Peninsula juts into the Southern Ocean, reaching farther north than any other part of the continent. The southernmost reach of global warming was believed to be limited to this narrow strip of land, while the rest of the continent was presumed to be cooling or stable.

Not so, according to a new analysis involving NASA data. In fact, the study has confirmed a trend suspected by some climate scientists.

The finding is the result of a novel combination of historical temperature data from ground-based weather stations and more recent data from satellites. Steig and colleagues used data from each record to fill in gaps in the other and to reconstruct a 50-year history of surface temperatures across Antarctica.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


okay, saying that global warming is the ONLY reason there is ice loss in the artic, but saying there are many reasons why the Antarctic sea ice is gaining. Is very unfair, and very unscientific.

I can go into really great scientific detail, if you like. But those who are certain the planet isn't warming will dismiss both the data and the assumptions as either flawed or fraudulent anyway--so what's the point? Know what I mean? ;-)
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."
Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



With the longer time series, a statistically significant trend now emerges. Not only is Antarctica losing land ice, the ice loss is accelerating at a rate of 26 Gigatonnes/yr2 (in other words, every year, the rate of ice loss is increasing by 26 Gigatonnes per year) It turns out that since 2006, East Antarctica has no longer been in mass balance but is in fact, losing ice mass (Chen 2009). This is a surprising result as East Antarctica has been considered stable because the region is so cold. This indicates the East Antarctic ice sheet is more dynamic than previously thought.
170. Cochise111

11:40 AM PST on January 11, 2011
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it replicable. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."



careful..... Al Gore will sick ManBearPig on you.....
Yuck....Bacon Ice Cream?
Can we please talk about the upcoming storm for the Northeast? I'd like to here someones input on it.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)


as long as you have two straws, we're good to go.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


More shear nonsense. Satellites have problems with measuring temperatures in high terrain and ice-covered areas. Here is a reconstruction based on surface data combined with satellite data (the satellite data after all needs to be calibrated to something):

Satellites Confirm Half-Century of West Antarctic Warming



The Antarctic Peninsula juts into the Southern Ocean, reaching farther north than any other part of the continent. The southernmost reach of global warming was believed to be limited to this narrow strip of land, while the rest of the continent was presumed to be cooling or stable.

Not so, according to a new analysis involving NASA data. In fact, the study has confirmed a trend suspected by some climate scientists.

The finding is the result of a novel combination of historical temperature data from ground-based weather stations and more recent data from satellites. Steig and colleagues used data from each record to fill in gaps in the other and to reconstruct a 50-year history of surface temperatures across Antarctica.


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nea...Have to ask the latest on AveMaria.I see they have a Publix there now, (and I would think a Domino's Pizza) Is this going to be a total bust???

I guess we'll find out. The economy is hurting Ave Maria as much as it's hurting the rest of the area--plus the place has to deal with rumors of bigotry and stuffiness. My guess is, though, that if and when money starts flowing, things will turn around for AM...
Quoting Cochise111:
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."

Hey, Glenn Beck called. He'd like his tinfoil hat back ASAP... ;-)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


People need to face reality:

Greenhouse effect

If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5]) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of radiation) is about −18 or −19 °C,[6][7] about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect.


Also, about Gore's movie (which I have never seen):

Al Gore’s movie (reviewed by a real climate scientist)

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity.



Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth accurate?


According to a court in England, it's not:

"...in October 2007 the High Court in London had identified nine errors in his movie An Inconvenient Truth..."

Judge-attacks-errors-Al-Gores-alarmist-climate-change-film.

State-of-the-art seismological techniques applied to Apollo-era data suggest our moon has a core similar to Earth's.

Uncovering details about the lunar core is critical for developing accurate models of the moon's formation. The data sheds light on the evolution of a lunar dynamo -- a natural process by which our moon may have generated and maintained its own strong magnetic field.

The team's findings suggest the moon possesses a solid, iron-rich inner core with a radius of nearly 150 miles and a fluid, primarily liquid-iron outer core with a radius of roughly 205 miles. Where it differs from Earth is a partially molten boundary layer around the core estimated to have a radius of nearly 300 miles. The research indicates the core contains a small percentage of light elements such as sulfur, echoing new seismology research on Earth that suggests the presence of light elements -- such as sulfur and oxygen -- in a layer around our own core.
Something interesting to note from Meteomadness (Henry Margusity, who nailed the Superstorm in December.)

"Models are totally missing the strength of the Ohio storm. Pressure right now is 1013 mb. Models have the pressure at 1016-1020 mb. Implications could mean the Ohio storm just drudges east down I-80 and picks up the coastal on the way."
Quoting Neapolitan:

I guess we'll find out. The economy is hurting Ave Maria as much as it's hurting the rest of the area--plus the place has to deal with rumors of bigotry and stuffiness. My guess is, though, that if and when money starts flowing, things will turn around for AM...

Oil Well Road sounds to back country....I vote to change the name.. Maybe, Reed Zone Highway........Yea, That's it
Quoting Levi32:


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.


Lewi32, can I have the link to the data set please?
Quoting Xandra:

Lewi32, can I have the link to the data set please?


Certainly. You can either get it at the GISS here or you can also get it here
good afternoon all - been a long time.

Have to tell you that I got a chuckle when I started reading -- its as if I never left -- the exact same conversation as 3 months ago!

Wanted to see what's up with all the snowy weather.
Oh hell......Dr. Oz is on
SPC has a risk of Thunderstorms for the Northeast Coastline today. This is caused by the convection that will develop near the low, causing Thunderstorms in the snow. A great phenomenon to watch, wish I was there. This will also cause the liquid amounts to bust up, 1-2 feet of snow possible in the highest liquid amounts.

"...More shear nonsense. Satellites have problems with measuring temperatures in high terrain and ice-covered areas. Here is a reconstruction based on surface data combined with satellite data (the satellite data after all needs to be calibrated to something)..."

Satellites, because of their orbits, cannot give us an accurate temp reading of EITHER pole.

So we have to base our readings on SURFACE readings, in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

What do the Arctic surface temperatures say?

Wait. There are none. So is that why GISS has to ESTIMATE the Arctic temperatures using weather stations 1200km away?

That's like giving someone the temp in Butte Montana using a Death Valley thermometer...
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM UTC January 11 2011
=======================================

An area of convection (90B) located at 7.2N 83.7E, or 230 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated multispectral imagery shows building convection with some indication of cyclonic turning over low level circulation center. An 0411z ASCAT pass shows an elongated circulation, possibly two circulation centers, oriented northeast-southwest with 25 knot winds on the southern side and much weaker return winds on the northern side. A series of 89ghz microwave passes from 0730 to 0830z show what appears to be significant banding wrapping into the center, but surface organization is evident in ASCAT and an 0824z TRMM 36ghz pass don't support tight wrapping. The signature is being assessed as having a similar pattern, but not representing, tightly wrapped banding. Environmental analysis shows that the disturbance is south of the upper level ridge axis, under a diffluent upper level wih moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
At least Antarctica has some higher latitude stations than the arctic does. Looking at just one station, the Amundsen-Scott station right at the South Pole, temperatures haven't trended a whole lot in any direction overall at the bottom of the earth since records began in the 1950s.

Quoting zoomiami:
good afternoon all - been a long time.

Have to tell you that I got a chuckle when I started reading -- its as if I never left -- the exact same conversation as 3 months ago!

Wanted to see what's up with all the snowy weather.


That means you are up to speed without breaking a sweat.

Welcome back!


Quoting calusakat:


That means you are up to speed without breaking a sweat.

Welcome back!



That looks like one of those nasty Ostrich's at Lion Country Safari
We have Tropical Cyclone 05P east of the Coral Sea, northeast of New Caledonia.

Quoting MichaelSTL:
Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



With the longer time series, a statistically significant trend now emerges. Not only is Antarctica losing land ice, the ice loss is accelerating at a rate of 26 Gigatonnes/yr2 (in other words, every year, the rate of ice loss is increasing by 26 Gigatonnes per year) It turns out that since 2006, East Antarctica has no longer been in mass balance but is in fact, losing ice mass (Chen 2009). This is a surprising result as East Antarctica has been considered stable because the region is so cold. This indicates the East Antarctic ice sheet is more dynamic than previously thought.


Wait a second - according to that chart, not only has the Antarctic ice mass reached zero, but its actually 700 Gt in the red!!!

Again, I'm assuming that there's an averaging period there (not shown).

Didn't see it on the ScepticalScience.com web site, either.
hi zoo!!!

I am just lurking but I had to say

Hi ZOO!!
Quoting Levi32:


Certainly. You can either get it at the GISS here or you can also get it here

Thanks Levi!
Quoting Levi32:


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.



I'm not sure what data sets you're using Levi, but the ones available here from GISS don't seem to indicate that at all. Southern hemisphere surface temps are showing a definitive upward trend.

Do you have a reference to the specific data set you're using? There's a lot of data files on the GISS site and their FTP servers.
Hi Aqua --- you guys are freezing up there! Keep asking my kid if he is warm enough.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
6:00 AM FST January 12 2011
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (990 hPa) located at 19.1S 169.4E is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. 10 minute sustained winds close to the center is 25-30 knots. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Gale Force Winds
==============

Clockwise winds 30-35 knots within 80 to 240 NM away from the center in sectors from north through east to southwest

Low level circulation center is obscured by cirrus outflow. Deep convection displaced to the north of low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and developing elsewhere. Depression lies along a monsoonal trough and under a 250 HPA diffluent region. System lies under moderate to strong shear. TD 03F currently steered by northerly deep layer mean wind.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 and final dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it south southwest with intensification.

The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone remains HIGH.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:00 AM UTC..
Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings and good day;

Levi made a personal observation. He did not name call, or describe, in a rather unprofessional way, what he thinks other peoples beliefs are. You mentioned that perhaps, and I quote: “Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on.”

Your right. No member of this blog, including Levi, should be insulted either. Comments such as yours violate the community standards of this blog. Perhaps the moderators should enforce these standards on your comments. Resorting to personal attacks indicates one is perhaps too emotionally attached to an issue, and does nothing to boost ones credibility. As a member of this blog as well, I would ask for a little more civility when addressing the posts of other members. Take care, and have a better day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon


Jon, do you jockey a 15?
Regarding Antarctic temperatures, the latest revision of the historical data is interesting:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/on-warming-antarctica-clouds-and-peer-review/

Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful, we are all doing the best we can!

Jeff Masters
Listen to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network here!

Meteorologists Shaun and Tim will continue to keep you informed on the continuing cold, snowy Winter much of the East is having. Will it ever stop?

Also, some weird weather news has happened over the past few days, so listen to the show to understand everything! The Daily Downpour begins at 4:30 p.m. ET, 1:30 PT.
Listen here!

They will also be taking your phone calls at 415-983-2634.
Refreshing......,from the etiquette side of things.



Neither advance was front-page news. What’s really worth noting is that both developments are the result of that remarkable process called the scientific method, together with the relatively modern innovation called peer review.

Also, both involve something rarely seen these days: (mainly) civilized, constructive exchanges between researchers and statistics analysts whose public personae have been shaped as much through blogging and public appearances as basic science.
Quoting Cochise111:
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."


Baseless, regurgitated, and often-repeated nonsense. As simple as that.
Interesting new update from Henry, may not be a big storm for NYC, still for Long Island though...

"I think the latest WRF has picked up on the stronger Ohio Valley Storm. Implications, the coastal gets shoved east and develops late in the game for NJ and NYC. Still a big storm for New England."
Thanks for posting the data you referenced.

Pulling in that exact file you mentioned into excel and plotting the graphs doesn't seem to reproduce the graph you posted. It shows a clear uptrend from 1979 to present, not a flat line. The northern hemisphere has a stronger upward trend than the southern as expected.

In addition, plotting the whole set from 1880 to present shows significant upward trends in the northern and southern hemispheres, with the northern hemisphere once again leading the way.(In fact, my graphs are the same as theirs, which shows significant upward trends.)

The other site you linked to has numerous output products available, some available and some not. Most of the time, they link back to the source sites. Some sites had graphs and others did not. Regardless, the ones that did have graphs show the same thing: upward trends in both the northern and southern hemispheres, with the southern hemisphere lagging.

The flat graph you posted is in contradiction with what's on GISS's site. In addition, this is easily verified by downloading the data from the GISS site and pulling it in to Excel or OpenOffice.

Was there any other steps involved in producing the graph you posted earlier? Perhaps some sort of adjustment algorithm taking into account other data? Following the instructions on GISS's site and the data file you mentioned does not seem to produce that graph.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I'm not sure what data sets you're using Levi, but the ones available here from GISS don't seem to indicate that at all. Southern hemisphere surface temps are showing a definitive upward trend.

Do you have a reference to the specific data set you're using? There's a lot of data files on the GISS site and their FTP servers.


Refer to post #186. The Southern hemisphere as a whole is a very different data set than just 64S southward to the pole.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Regarding Antarctic temperatures, the latest revision of the historical data is interesting:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/on-warming-antarctica-clouds-and-peer-r eview/

Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful, we are all doing the best we can!

Jeff Masters


Great to see you, Dr. Masters. Thank you for all your updates.
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Thanks for posting the data you referenced.

Pulling in that exact file you mentioned into excel and plotting the graphs doesn't seem to reproduce the graph you posted. It shows a clear uptrend from 1979 to present, not a flat line.


I did the same thing, and got a similar result. He may have pointed to the wrong file, as his graphs show a higher temporal resolution than the link text file does. I'd like to see what paper he got the graph from, or what files/steps he used to create the data as well. If NASA's own publicly-available GISS dataset showed a different trend than their produced graphics, then it certainly would raise questions.
Another dissapointent....
Life will tend to do that...


Be patient,,calamity will find you one day.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)


You obviously aren't adding quite as much Jameson as I Nea.
Quoting Ossqss:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/dessler-and-spencer-debate-cloud-feedback/

Interesting. You should read a few of the outstanding papers linked to in the article to which Dr. Masters linked in his comment a short while ago (and which had this to say: "Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, whose blog is his main public face these days, along with the occasional news conference organized by foes of restrictions on greenhouse gases.") This one in particular: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/12/feedback-on-cloud-feedback/. I think you'll find it interesting.
If a tropical storm hitting Nantucket on Wednesday in the middle of January isn't proof of global warming, I don't know what is.

Just kidding, of course.
220. Inyo
Climate change is important but we shouldn't forget the other huge reason we are seeing more and more floods like this - degradation and horrible management of watersheds. See here for more info
Quoting Levi32:


Certainly. You can either get it at the GISS here or you can also get it here



Did you notice the disclaimer at the top?

"using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment"

Isn't that the same as altered?




Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
If a tropical storm hitting Nantucket on Wednesday in the middle of January isn't proof of global warming, I don't know what is.

Just kidding, of course.


It does seem to suggest a mindset though, among those reporting the weather.


Quoting ScottLincoln:


Baseless, regurgitated, and often-repeated nonsense. As simple as that.


I agree 100%

AGW is all of that -Baseless, regurgitated, and often-repeated nonsense.

The good news is that people are slowly but surely catching on to the AGW fraud.

At long last.


Quoting calusakat:


Did you notice the disclaimer at the top?

"using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment"

Isn't that the same as altered?

No; it's called "scientific honesty". You will run across a lot of it on sites run by climate scientists. On sites run by Spencer and Watts, not so much... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

No; it's called "scientific honesty". You will run across a lot of it on sites run by climate scientists. On sites run by Spencer and Watts, not so much... ;-)


Oh, so it is altered data.

That is what I thought.

Funny isn't it...how altered data can be described as scientific honesty.

That makes those types of graphs little more than 'beta demonstrations', useless until the data is real and unaltered.



No, it's interpreting data using mathematical rules. It's like saying data is 'altered' by using data points to create a graph. Or a regression line.
Can ya'll get in the chat room? Can't get it to connect to the server or something.


Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
NASA Calls '2012' Most Flawed Sci-Fi Film Ever


About time someone handed out this award..
I can't get into chat either skyepony.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
No, it's interpreting data using mathematical rules. It's like saying data is 'altered' by using data points to create a graph. Or a regression line.


Wow!!!

Can I have one of those dictionary's you are using?

Change the truth any time you like and expect people believe you, hook line and sinker.



Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
NASA Calls '2012' Most Flawed Sci-Fi Film Ever



Hmmmm. Science Fiction....Fiction means it isn't true, right?

Since when did NASA become a movie critic?

They need to stay with space exploration and out of pretending to be movie critics.


Quoting calusakat:


It does seem to suggest a mindset though, among those reporting the weather.




My take is that they wanted to make a point by using "tropical storm conditions" because it's not quite bad enough to be called "blizzard conditions". Note also that a high wind warning was issued.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


My take is that they wanted to make a point by using "tropical storm conditions" because it's not quite bad enough to be called "blizzard conditions". Note also that a high wind warning was issued.


Doesn't tropical suggest a certain temperature range?

Does that mean all rain before, during or after, a snow storm is tropical?



I don't think it was the NWS wanting to make a point. I think it's just an error with their automated forecast writeups and graphics.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I don't think it was the NWS wanting to make a point. I think it's just an error with their automated forecast writeups and graphics.


Yeah thats the ticket. Yessireee bob.

Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more, say no more.

Re-read the last sentence in post # 234


Upon reading the article to which Dr. Masters linked, I was reminded again of this little "exchange" which I'd run across a couple of weeks ago:

A brief history of knowledge about Antarctic temperatures

Early 20th Century:

Scott: It’s cold here.
The media: Scott is a hero!
Scott: It’s really really cold here.
The media: Scott is a hero!
Amundsen: It’s not that cold.
The media: Scott is a hero. Oh, and Amundsen.
Public: Shackleton is a hero, but please shut up, there’s a war on.

Mid 20th Century:

Geophizzicists: Let’s find out just how cold it is.
Media: Scott is a hero!
Public: yawn…

Late 20th Century:

Scientists: It’s colder in some place than others.
Media: Antarctica is cooling.
Scientists: It’s cooling at the South Pole, but warming very fast on the Peninsula.
Media: Antarctica is cooling, but warming faster than anywhere else on earth.
Public: Huh…?

2000
Thompson and Solomon: Most of Antarctica is cooling in summer, but it is warming on the Peninsula. We think it has to do with the ozone hole.
Media: Because of ozone, Antarctica is warming faster than anywhere else on earth and we are all going to die.
Public: Huh…?

Early 21st Century:

2006
Scientists: The troposphere over Antarctica is warming significantly in winter.
Media: Even though that paper was published in Science, our readers don’t know what the troposphere is. Neither do we. Next?

2007
Scientists: The troposphere over Antarctica is warming significantly in winter and spring, especially over West Antarctica.
Media: That paper wasn’t published in Nature, so we’re not very interested.

2009
Scientists: Antarctica is cooling in fall — not summer — in some places, but warming, especially in winter and spring, especially in West Antarctica.
Media: Antarctica stops cooling! Conservative or liberal, we are ALL going to die.
Steve McIntyre: The “team” made up the data again. I don’t know what Antarctica is doing, but I think it is probably cooling.
Media: Antarctica starts cooling again, global warming is a fraud.

2010
Ryan O’Donnell: Our paper in the Journal of Climate shows a somewhat better way to look at the same data. Antarctica is warming a bit more in summer, and a bit less in winter in the Ross Sea region. In fall it is cooling a bit more too, and so the overall trends are smaller. Still, West Antarctica is definitely warming significantly, as Steig et al. found. That’s interesting.
Eric Steig: Nice paper Ryan. Thanks for sending along a pre-print.
Steve McIntyre: Hey, we got published in the Journal of Climate! Another paper showing that the “team” made up the data again! (Sotto voce): Ryan says it is warming a bit more in summer, and a bit less in winter in the Ross Sea region. In fall it is cooling a bit more. Otherwise we get the same results, though the magnitude of the trends is smaller. But West Antarctica is still warming significantly. But I really don’t care. The peer review process is broken, which is why.. umm…our paper was published in the leading climate journal.
Liberal Media: That paper wasn’t published in Nature, so we’re not very interested.
Conservative Media: Antarctica is cooling. Global warming is a fraud.
Public: zzzZZZzzz

-----------------------------

Awesome. Simply awesome.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I don't think it was the NWS wanting to make a point. I think it's just an error with their automated forecast writeups and graphics.


Could be, we'll see. I sent an inquiry to the site webmaster. There was no mention of the word 'tropical' in the 3 most recent AFDs.
People, pay attention to what's going to happen in Brisbane/Australia the next hours and days. Extreme flooding, 40.000 houses and appartements will be damaged. Here is a good animation of what the situation will be in case of extreme flooding above 7 m
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKvYHUkuuLc&feature=related
And here is a report containing a good map of the whole region.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12158608
Will any of the Australia floodwatersflow into Lake Eyre and fill it?
Quoting Inyo:
Climate change is important but we shouldn't forget the other huge reason we are seeing more and more floods like this - degradation and horrible management of watersheds. See here for more info


Very true.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).


Wondering why I have just lowered MichaelSTL onto my least favorite people list....What the hell was that all about



I messed up the quote, but I hope you all get the point
Wrong again, Michael.

A Scientist Takes On Gravity

It’s hard to imagine a more fundamental and
ubiquitous aspect of life on the Earth than gravity, from the moment you first took a step and fell on your diapered bottom to the slow terminal sagging of flesh and dreams.

But what if it’s all an illusion, a sort of cosmic frill, or a side effect of something else going on at deeper levels of reality?

So says Erik Verlinde, 48, a respected string theorist and professor of physics at the University of Amsterdam, whose contention that gravity is indeed an illusion has caused a continuing ruckus among physicists, or at least among those who profess to understand it. Reversing the logic of 300 years of science, he argued in a recent paper, titled “On the Origin of Gravity and the Laws of Newton,” that gravity is a consequence of the venerable laws of thermodynamics, which describe the behavior of heat and gases.

“For me gravity doesn’t exist,” said Dr. Verlinde, who was recently in the United States to explain himself. Not that he can’t fall down, but Dr. Verlinde is among a number of physicists who say that science has been looking at gravity the wrong way and that there is something more basic, from which gravity “emerges,” the way stock markets emerge from the collective behavior of individual investors or that elasticity emerges from the mechanics of atoms.
Quoting Inyo:
Climate change is important but we shouldn't forget the other huge reason we are seeing more and more floods like this - degradation and horrible management of watersheds. See here for more info


On the other hand, when you have things like half a foot of rain in half an hour, I doubt that much can stop that (even trees will be razed by the flash flooding and add to debris that can cause jams). Remember also that things like dams will reduce the severity of flooding (of course, levees can cause the water to rise higher, thus flow rate is the best indication of how unusual a flood was).

Plus, according to the news reports, an area the size of France and Germany combined is supposedly flooded. Also, people in Pakistan are STILL dealing with flooding half a year after the rain fell.
is this pick on Michael day? come on, you guys need to lighten up.....I haven't seen anyone post anything cringe worthy on here in quite some time....

all together now.... OHM..........
Quoting jwh250:
Wrong again, Michael.


LOL!

PS: Let's just say that it is a good thing we are on the Internet, not real life.
Quoting NRAamy:
is this pick on Michael day? come on, you guys need to lighten up.....I haven't seen anyone post anything cringe worthy on here in quite some time....

all together now.... OHM..........
>
Let's just use the "nose" as an example.If it needs to be picked.We will do it
Quoting Neapolitan:
Upon reading the article to which Dr. Masters linked, I was reminded again of this little "exchange" which I'd run across a couple of weeks ago:

Awesome. Simply awesome.


I concur, and it reminds me of the "debate" in general, especially how the media reports things to fit their biases (in particular, outlets like Fox).
"Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful." - Dr. Jeff Masters (comment #203)

Anyway, a suggestion: ¿ǝǝɹbɐ noʎ ʇ,upןnoʍ ˙sɹǝqɯǝɯ uɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ ɹno ɟo ʇıɟǝuǝq ǝɥʇ ɹoɟ sıɥʇ op ןןɐ pןnoɥs ǝʍ 'ɹǝpun uʍop ɹǝɥʇɐǝʍ ssnɔsıp oʇ buıob ǝɹ,ǝʍ ɟI
253. DDR
Sorry for Australia
Everyone knows what they are going through,no one knows how bad we had it here on this tiny island called Trinidad.
An abundance of showers to my east,could be a repeat of last week's floods tomorrow.Dam this La nina
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful." - Dr. Jeff Masters (comment #203)

Anyway, a suggestion: ¿ǝǝɹbɐ noʎ ʇ,upןnoʍ ˙sɹǝqɯǝɯ uɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ ɹno ɟo ʇıɟǝuǝq ǝɥʇ ɹoɟ sıɥʇ op ןןɐ pןnoɥs ǝʍ 'ɹǝpun uʍop ɹǝɥʇɐǝʍ ssnɔsıp oʇ buıob ǝɹ,ǝʍ ɟI



Yes but how do you write for our antimatter folks?

Antimatter caught streaming from thunderstorms on Earth

I wonder if they detected any from the Australian storms.
Quoting jwh250:
Wrong again, Michael.

A Scientist Takes On Gravity

It’s hard to imagine a more fundamental and
ubiquitous aspect of life on the Earth than gravity, from the moment you first took a step and fell on your diapered bottom to the slow terminal sagging of flesh and dreams.

But what if it’s all an illusion, a sort of cosmic frill, or a side effect of something else going on at deeper levels of reality?

So says Erik Verlinde, 48, a respected string theorist and professor of physics at the University of Amsterdam, whose contention that gravity is indeed an illusion has caused a continuing ruckus among physicists, or at least among those who profess to understand it. Reversing the logic of 300 years of science, he argued in a recent paper, titled “On the Origin of Gravity and the Laws of Newton,” that gravity is a consequence of the venerable laws of thermodynamics, which describe the behavior of heat and gases.

“For me gravity doesn’t exist,” said Dr. Verlinde, who was recently in the United States to explain himself. Not that he can’t fall down, but Dr. Verlinde is among a number of physicists who say that science has been looking at gravity the wrong way and that there is something more basic, from which gravity “emerges,” the way stock markets emerge from the collective behavior of individual investors or that elasticity emerges from the mechanics of atoms.


Well since there are many theory's on the subject of gravity, how do you know that someone else hasn't figured it out and didn't release it into public domain for whatever reason(s). Quantum mechanics is the correct solution, although it is misinterpreted and not well understood. It is correct because the results produced from the model match's reality exactly, the same is the goal of climate predication's and such. Although be careful because the results made available to the public do not consider all of the variables, and most likely will not match reality. I have a feeling that we are capable of producing much more accurate models, but they would most likely not be released.
Their is a song called dissapointed by Eletric.I don't think our current storm riding alond the east coast would mind me singing it for him.
Quoting reedzone:


Maybe Levi's a Christian and just pointing out that man does not control our Climate.


Which is a slippery slope, indeed. God also says to be good stewards of the Earth.
Although...

Quoting MichaelSTL:
Maybe I should just put Levi on ignore because he is obviously one of those eggheaded denialists who think that science fiction trumps real science.

By the way, imagine if gravity, which is a theory like global warming, ceased to exist at this moment - we'd all fly off into space at up to 1,000 mph (the rotational speed of the Earth at the equator*)!

*Of course, Levi thinks that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was the biggest hoax ever, behind global warming. And the Sun orbits the Earth.

Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on. Including people threatening him (probably including death threats).


I gave you more credit than this since your return, STL. We can disagree, but civility is a requisite.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is a slippery slope, indeed. God also says to be good stewards of the Earth.
I see you've came out of your cave j/k.Anyway did you catch some of the snow?.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although...



I gave you more credit than this since your return, STL. We can disagree, but civility is a requisite.


Wonder what Dr. Masters says about that:

Yale profile of Wunderground.com’s Jeff Masters: “The ignorance and greed that human society is showing [on climate change] will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction.”

He’s shared these views in his blogs, not surprisingly leading to hundreds of “hate e-mails” a year. Critics call him biased and chastise him for defending scientists named or involved in last fall’s hacked e-mails controversy at the University of East Anglia in the U.K. While he respects the right of these people to voice their point of view, he doesn’t pull punches: “The ignorance and greed that human society is showing in this matter will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction,” he says.
The rise of anti-science cyber bullying

Researchers must purge e-mail in-boxes daily of threatening correspondence, simply part of the job of being a climate scientist
Al Gore must get 100's of emails from ManBearPig on a daily basis!
Quoting NRAamy:
Al Gore must get 100's of emails from ManBearPig on a daily basis!
You mean in less than 24 hours.
I'm cereal!
Good Evening Everybody!
Exactly 139 days, 23 hours, and 59 minutes until the start of the 2011 hurricane season. Can't come soon enough... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Exactly 139 days, 23 hours, and 59 minutes until the start of the 2011 hurricane season. Can't come soon enough... ;-)


Already going by like a flash, it was 180 days yesterday I swear.


June 1 always is the Start Date,,but the Invests have begun in May the last 4 years.

And as a Gulf Coast resident,..preparing now is easier,,then in the rush crush of a actual Threat of a Landfall.




Q: Back in May 2009 there was a 90L that nearly became a Tropical Storm. Does anyone have any links for further info on said system? Very curious to know why that wasn't Ana.
Quoting NRAamy:
I'm cereal!
????.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Exactly 139 days, 23 hours, and 59 minutes until the start of the 2011 hurricane season. Can't come soon enough... ;-)
Hurricane season is not welcomed...
270. washingtonian115 4:14 PM PST on January 11, 2011

Quoting NRAamy:
I'm cereal!

????.


I take it you don't watch South Park...

:)
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Good Evening Everybody!
Hmmmm, must still be on a lot of ignore lists...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Hmmmm, must still be on a lot of ignore lists...
Oh ghood evening.
Quoting NRAamy:
270. washingtonian115 4:14 PM PST on January 11, 2011

Quoting NRAamy:
I'm cereal!

????.


I take it you don't watch South Park...

:)
Not like that anymore especially when the kids decide to stay up late.
yeah, not a kids show.... you're a good parent!

:)
I found this about 90L---not much though.
Hi Pat - I'm too cold to prepare or to even think about Cane Season ---
I will sing & dance on the dock for warm weather!
Shout with glee & joy for temps to be in the 70°s,
Dance on the beach to get into the 80°s.
I'm so tired of boots, sweaters, jackets, scarves, gloves...
I'm ready for a bathing suit, sunshine & hot muggy humidity!
Quoting Patrap:


June 1 always is the Start Date,,but the Invests have begun in May the last 4 years.

And as a Gulf Coast resident,..preparing now is easier,,then in the rush crush of a actual Threat of a Landfall.




Quoting NRAamy:
yeah, not a kids show.... you're a good parent!

:)
Gotta keep the children's minds young and healthy.
Vanuatu is about to get hammered by Vania and New Caledonia is next.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
9:00 AM WST January 12 2011
========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (987 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.1E, or 1080 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 108.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.3S 110.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.9S 114.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.1S 114.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

The shear analysis is around 20 knots from CMISS. The shear is expected decreased due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours. The separation between the LLCC and the CDO is within 0.5 degrees. The Dvorak analysis is based on shear pattern giving DT of 3.0. Pattern T agrees with the DT so final T number is 3.0.

The system has been stationary over the last 6 hours, and all models indicate it will start to recurve towards the southeast. It is then expected to again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track, however all models now agree on no coastal impact to the Pilbara, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Over 90 missing in Australia as floods inundate Brisbane


By Ed Davies

BRISBANE, Australia | Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:22pm EST

BRISBANE, Australia (Reuters) - Thousands of residents of Australia's third-largest city evacuated homes on Wednesday as massive floods threatened to inundate the financial district, sparked panic buying of food and left authorities despairing for more than 90 people missing.

The biggest floods in decades have so far killed 14 people since starting their devastating march across the northern mining state of Queensland last month, crippling the coking coal industry, destroying infrastructure, putting a brake on the economy and sending the local currency to four-week lows.

With a flood surge expected to peak in the Queensland capital of Brisbane, a city of two million, on Thursday, search and rescue crews took advantage of rare sunshine on Wednesday to look for those still missing from tsunami-like flash floods that tore through townships west of the city this week.

"I think we're all going to be shocked by what they find in these towns that were hit by that tsunami yesterday," Queensland state Premier Anna Bligh told local television on Wednesday.

The worsening floods are forcing economists to raise estimates of the economic impact, with one central bank board member quoted on Wednesday as saying the disaster could cost as much as 1 percent of economic growth -- equal to almost $13 billion, double the previous highest estimate.

The Australian dollar sank to a fresh four-week low of $0.9803 on the comments from Warwick McKibbin, an academic and a member of the central bank's policy making board.

In Brisbane, thousands of homes and businesses were inundated as swirling flood waters rose in and around the riverside city, triggering residents to flee with few possessions to higher ground and evacuation centers.

City Mayor Campbell Newman said the number of homes expected to be hit by flooding had risen to 19,700, affecting up to 45,000 people, with the military now running relief flights with helicopters and C-130 transports.

Dams built to protect communities are at bursting point.

Power company Energex has shut power to some low-lying areas of Brisbane, including parts of the financial district, for fear that live power lines could electrify floodwaters. Up to 100,000 homes in Brisbane and nearby Ipswich were without electricity.

'TERRIFYING, CHAOS'

Bligh said the Brisbane River, which winds through the city center, should peak at the high tide on Thursday around mid-afternoon, with thousands of properties to be inundated before that time, but she appealed for calm.

"Right across this region, this river is creating chaos, terrifying people and causing damage already," she said.

Unmoored boats and pontoons with speedboats still attached could be seen adrift on the Brisbane River, which was swirling with flotsam as the sun broke through on Wednesday for what was expected, allowing rescue helicopters into the air.

Showers, though, were forecast to return next week.


TC Vince's path in the next two days.
Fiji Meteorological Service
RSMC - Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2009 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 990HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
169.4E AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

LLCC OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO NORTH
OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
DEPRESSION LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. TD03F CURRENTLY
STEERED BY NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.4 WRAP LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 AND FT BASED
ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120200 UTC.

** WTPS01 NFFN 120000 ***
GALE WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0100 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA [988HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 169.3E

POSITION FAIR.

CYCLONE SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST.


TC Vania's track for the next two days.

(map is from Vanuatu Meteorological Services)

Vanuatu Meteorological Services
No, you should not post upside down for New Zealand or Australia - we are right way up!- it's the others that are upside down ;-) It's all Ptolemy's fault. and he isn't around to answer for himself, but North at the top is merely an arbitary convention.
But why does Wunderground insist on listing NZ as if it is part of Australia?- we are separate countries and we don't like people to think otherwise!
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Hmmmm, must still be on a lot of ignore lists...
Bueller? Anybody? Any station, new antennae radio check?
go ahead CQ
The current situation with our La Nina is interesting to watch. Looking at daily MSU temperature data (updated through December 31st, 2010, and available here), the tropics are crashing fast over the last three months, already below the long-term average, and the global anomalies are beginning to follow suit.

The most interesting part is how far ahead in the fall the tropical anomalies are compared to the global. If we zoom out to the entire data set since 1978, it is the 2nd largest deficit between the tropics and the globe in the entire data set behind the 1997-98 El Nino, which was a positive deficit in favor of the tropics. This is a negative deficit, and the largest of its kind in the data set. This implies that the global anomalies have a ways to fall yet to catch up.



Tropical Cyclone Vania:

Quoting Patrap:
Over 90 missing in Australia as floods inundate Brisbane


By Ed Davies

BRISBANE, Australia | Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:22pm EST

BRISBANE, Australia (Reuters) - Thousands of residents of Australia's third-largest city evacuated homes on Wednesday as massive floods threatened to inundate the financial district, sparked panic buying of food and left authorities despairing for more than 90 people missing.

The biggest floods in decades have so far killed 14 people since starting their devastating march across the northern mining state of Queensland last month, crippling the coking coal industry, destroying infrastructure, putting a brake on the economy and sending the local currency to four-week lows.

With a flood surge expected to peak in the Queensland capital of Brisbane, a city of two million, on Thursday, search and rescue crews took advantage of rare sunshine on Wednesday to look for those still missing from tsunami-like flash floods that tore through townships west of the city this week.

"I think we're all going to be shocked by what they find in these towns that were hit by that tsunami yesterday," Queensland state Premier Anna Bligh told local television on Wednesday.

The worsening floods are forcing economists to raise estimates of the economic impact, with one central bank board member quoted on Wednesday as saying the disaster could cost as much as 1 percent of economic growth -- equal to almost $13 billion, double the previous highest estimate.

The Australian dollar sank to a fresh four-week low of $0.9803 on the comments from Warwick McKibbin, an academic and a member of the central bank's policy making board.

In Brisbane, thousands of homes and businesses were inundated as swirling flood waters rose in and around the riverside city, triggering residents to flee with few possessions to higher ground and evacuation centers.

City Mayor Campbell Newman said the number of homes expected to be hit by flooding had risen to 19,700, affecting up to 45,000 people, with the military now running relief flights with helicopters and C-130 transports.

Dams built to protect communities are at bursting point.

Power company Energex has shut power to some low-lying areas of Brisbane, including parts of the financial district, for fear that live power lines could electrify floodwaters. Up to 100,000 homes in Brisbane and nearby Ipswich were without electricity.

'TERRIFYING, CHAOS'

Bligh said the Brisbane River, which winds through the city center, should peak at the high tide on Thursday around mid-afternoon, with thousands of properties to be inundated before that time, but she appealed for calm.

"Right across this region, this river is creating chaos, terrifying people and causing damage already," she said.

Unmoored boats and pontoons with speedboats still attached could be seen adrift on the Brisbane River, which was swirling with flotsam as the sun broke through on Wednesday for what was expected, allowing rescue helicopters into the air.

Showers, though, were forecast to return next week.
the land going under
Thanks Keep...been gone a while. Had to make sure this thing still works
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Thanks Keep...been gone a while. Had to make sure this thing still works


#273 answered you too.... guess you're in business ;-)
...."I come from the Land down under, where women glow and men plunder"..

Ya better run, ya betta taker cover...
Quoting Levi32:
The current situation with our La Nina is interesting to watch. Looking at daily MSU temperature data (updated through December 31st, 2010, and available here), the tropics are crashing fast over the last three months, already below the long-term average, and the global anomalies are beginning to follow suit.

The most interesting part is how far ahead in the fall the tropical anomalies are compared to the global. If we zoom out to the entire data set since 1978, it is the 2nd largest deficit between the tropics and the globe in the entire data set behind the 1997-98 El Nino, which was a positive deficit in favor of the tropics. This is a negative deficit, and the largest of its kind in the data set. This implies that the global anomalies have a ways to fall yet to catch up.





Yep, the proverbial cliff is upon us.

Note: complaints about the site used will be forthcoming, but it does not change the data ;)



Does not include the last few weeks.



Also note the similar plateau's to 1998.
Quoting Patrap:
...."I come from the Land down under, where women glow and men plunder"..

Ya better run, ya betta taker cover...


Men at Work.....c'mon LOL
Here, this might help:

Quoting robbonz:
¡ǝsıʍɹǝɥʇo ʞuıɥʇ oʇ ǝןdoǝd ǝʞıן ʇ,uop ǝʍ puɐ sǝıɹʇunoɔ ǝʇɐɹɐdǝs ǝɹɐ ǝʍ -¿ɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ ɟo ʇɹɐd sı ʇı ɟı sɐ zu buıʇsıן uo ʇsısuı punoɹbɹǝpunʍ sǝop ʎɥʍ ʇnq

˙uoıʇuǝʌuoɔ ʎɹɐʇıqɹɐ uɐ ʎןǝɹǝɯ sı doʇ ǝɥʇ ʇɐ ɥʇɹou ʇnq 'ɟןǝsɯıɥ ɹoɟ ɹǝʍsuɐ oʇ punoɹɐ ʇ,usı ǝɥ puɐ ˙ʇןnɐɟ s,ʎɯǝןoʇd ןןɐ s,ʇı (-؛ uʍop ǝpısdn ǝɹɐ ʇɐɥʇ sɹǝɥʇo ǝɥʇ s,ʇı -¡dn ʎɐʍ ʇɥbıɹ ǝɹɐ ǝʍ - ɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ ɹo puɐןɐǝz ʍǝu ɹoɟ uʍop ǝpısdn ʇsod ʇou pןnoɥs noʎ 'ou

Yes, that's more like it... ;-)
levi32,Is that a positive or negative sign for the upcoming hurricane season about the temperatures?
Question to the smart folks......

How do GHG's and temp behave in a climate system with aerosols and cloud formation, heat islands and Ozone holes, solar flux, deep water conveyors, polar soot and toss in the various oscillations t boot ? Is it a Logarithmic or Linear behavior?
Vania's the first named cyclone this year.
Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change 11-17-08

Climate models have estimated the strength of water vapor feedback, but until now the record of water vapor data was not sophisticated enough to provide a comprehensive view of at how water vapor responds to changes in Earth's surface temperature. That's because instruments on the ground and previous space-based could not measure water vapor at all altitudes in Earth's troposphere -- the layer of the atmosphere that extends from Earth's surface to about 10 miles in altitude.

AIRS is the first instrument to distinguish differences in the amount of water vapor at all altitudes within the troposphere. Using data from AIRS, the team observed how atmospheric water vapor reacted to shifts in surface temperatures between 2003 and 2008. By determining how humidity changed with surface temperature, the team could compute the average global strength of the water vapor feedback.

This new data set shows that as surface temperature increases, so does atmospheric humidity, Dessler said. Dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere makes the atmosphere more humid. And since water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, the increase in humidity amplifies the warming from carbon dioxide."

Specifically, the team found that if Earth warms 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the associated increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per square meter (about 11 square feet).

"That number may not sound like much, but add up all of that energy over the entire Earth surface and you find that water vapor is trapping a lot of energy," Dessler said. "We now think the water vapor feedback is extraordinarily strong, capable of doubling the warming due to carbon dioxide alone."



Based on climate variations between 2003 and 2008, the energy trapped by water vapor is shown from southern to northern latitudes, peaking near the equator.
Credit: Andrew Dessler
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Most of the country is snow covered. After the global superstorm it will be far more!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
levi32,Is that a positive or negative sign for the upcoming hurricane season about the temperatures?


It's not the global average temperature itself but the temperature distribution that is most important regarding the hurricane season. The pattern that will evolve during the latter part of this winter is still in the making.
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Most of the country is snow covered. After the global superstorm it will be far more!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14


If memory servers me, we had 49 of 50 covered last year at one point.

Same this year/ except for Florida :P

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/11/snow-present-in-49-of-the-50-u-s-states/
Last year one day in February, there was snow on the ground in all fifty states. Let me see if I can re-find the link to the story of the OU met student who documented it.
Quoting Ossqss:


If memory servers me, we had 49 of 50 covered last year at one point.

Same this year/ except for Florida :P

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/11/snow-present-in-49-of-the-50-u-s-states/
Quoting Ossqss:


If memory servers me, we had 49 of 50 covered last year at one point.

Same this year/ except for Florida :P

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/11/snow-present-in-49-of-the-50-u-s-states/



The very reason I live here! lol
I believe it was Feb 12th 2010 and after..

The 4-6 in McComb,Miss was down right phun..


Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh ghood evening.Not like that anymore especially when the kids decide to stay up late.
Sorry, missed that...thanks
Quoting Patrap:
...."I come from the Land down under, where women glow and men plunder"..

Ya better run, ya betta taker cover...

Vegamite sucks!
Patrick Marsh, a meteorology grad student at OU documented snow on the ground in every U.S. state on Feb 12, 2010.
(OU Daily)

Click to hear his story on NPR.
Snow is on the ground outside,and it's sticking fast to.But we're not getting alot anyway.But!.Even though we have had small amounts of snow,most of our percipitation this winter has been snow.Interesting to say the least.What a weird La nina...
Quoting Patrap:
I believe it was Feb 12th 2010 and after..

The 4-6 in McComb,Miss was down right phun..




Nice stuff! I think the dog was not sure what the heck you were doin! I still remember, you made me get a dog about the same time :)



BTW, that really is Zeus (80 lbs ago) for the record, with the shirt from Portlight
Quoting Patrap:
Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change 11-17-08

Climate models have estimated the strength of water vapor feedback, but until now the record of water vapor data was not sophisticated enough to provide a comprehensive view of at how water vapor responds to changes in Earth's surface temperature. That's because instruments on the ground and previous space-based could not measure water vapor at all altitudes in Earth's troposphere -- the layer of the atmosphere that extends from Earth's surface to about 10 miles in altitude.

AIRS is the first instrument to distinguish differences in the amount of water vapor at all altitudes within the troposphere. Using data from AIRS, the team observed how atmospheric water vapor reacted to shifts in surface temperatures between 2003 and 2008. By determining how humidity changed with surface temperature, the team could compute the average global strength of the water vapor feedback.

This new data set shows that as surface temperature increases, so does atmospheric humidity, Dessler said. Dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere makes the atmosphere more humid. And since water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, the increase in humidity amplifies the warming from carbon dioxide."

Specifically, the team found that if Earth warms 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the associated increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per square meter (about 11 square feet).

"That number may not sound like much, but add up all of that energy over the entire Earth surface and you find that water vapor is trapping a lot of energy," Dessler said. "We now think the water vapor feedback is extraordinarily strong, capable of doubling the warming due to carbon dioxide alone."



Based on climate variations between 2003 and 2008, the energy trapped by water vapor is shown from southern to northern latitudes, peaking near the equator.
Credit: Andrew Dessler



One thing they need to do is teach these characters to write better papers.

So now water vapor is an evil greenhouse gas as well.

Oh brother.

The whole point being made by those who see through the AGW fraud has been that Climate change is not a simple CO2 is at fault kind of thing. CO2 is simply a small player in a very complicated multi-element equilibrium.

No rocket science necessary.

Greenhouse gases may make a contribution to the climate, only problem is, the devil is in the details.

Had the author not had such a AGW slant in his viewpoint, the article would likely been written much clearer than it was.

This one is horribly written and extremely convoluted. He couldn't even get the energy facts straight.

Sadly, AGW bias means having to write in convoluted and twisted ways in order to cause confusion and consequently derive agreement because of the reader not wanting to say that they didn't get the drift of the article.

Its called saving face. They wouldn't want to look stupid in front of the professor now would they.


Well the Dog is aLOT Bigger now os,..

I was still on the Super Bowl Fan Crest that evening.

Hope dat Pup is now a Fine Pet for you as well,...
Somebody has a 51st birthday this Saturday!!!!!!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



The very reason I live here! lol


Hello PSL!
Shup press

LOL
Quoting presslord:
Somebody has a 51st birthday this Saturday!!!!!!



Hello there! How's it going, friend?

Don't keep us in suspense.
Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - according to that chart, not only has the Antarctic ice mass reached zero, but its actually 700 Gt in the red!!!

Again, I'm assuming that there's an averaging period there (not shown).

Didn't see it on the ScepticalScience.com web site, either.


yeah and they measured the mass, by digging a hole and putting a triple beam balance underneath it


Ah, query resolved.

Happy Birthday, Pat!
I think he just gave himself away...
Quoting Patrap:
Well the Dog is aLOT Bigger now os,..

I was still on the Super Bowl Fan Crest that evening.

Hope dat Pup is now a Fine Pet for you as well,...


Indeed, he is a great family member. Thanks, for you made it happen. I am thankful for that. And HBD a bit early ! ! Now about the food bill you did not tell me about? LOL

Be well all., out>>>>>>

TY vet,..press,Ossqss


One thing good about being conceived in da 50's,and born in Jan 1960...

All I have to do to remember my age when Senility kicks in is to add 40 to the current year.

Im writing that down and saving it in wu-mail too right now just in case..
Quoting Patrap:
TY vet,..


One thing good about being conceived in da 50's, born in 1960...

All I have to do to remember my age when Senility kicks in is to add 40 to the current year.

Im writing that down and saving it in wu-mail too right now just in case..



LMAO
Quoting presslord:
I think he just gave himself away...


So sad, trolling for birthday greetings... ;)

HBTY, Pat
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


So sad, trolling for birthday greetings... ;)

HBTY, Pat


....thanks DontAnnoyMe





Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


TC Vince's path in the next two days.


That storm is heading for warm 29C+ water and could draw up to 32C SSTs directly ahead of its path just before making landfall. We could see a repeat of Laurence (second landfall) in 2010:




If you add 40 to the current year, you'll pass the century mark soon. LOL
HB Pat. Your're catching up to me fast.
reply to ossqss #296

What is plus or minus 0.4 degrees? Looks like someone examining an elephant with a microscope.
I wonder which flea they are looking at!
Quoting Ossqss:


Yep, the proverbial cliff is upon us.

Note: complaints about the site used will be forthcoming, but it does not change the data ;)



Does not include the last few weeks.



Also note the similar plateau's to 1998.

Thanks for posting the top graph; every time it shows up here or elsewhere, I can't help but chuckle at those who use it as "evidence" of cooling, when a) the bottom end of the last downward blue line is still higher than about 80% of the rest of the graph, and b) the more important red line showing the running 13-month average is still higher than about 99% of the graph. It takes quite an imagination, I think, to look at it and exclaim, "Yep! An ice age is upon us!" I think the scientific term for that is "grasping at straws" ;-)

The thing is, as any reputable atmospheric scientist will tell you, climate change is a long-term issue, a phenomenon that is playing out over a period of years and decades--and all those long-term climate trends point to a warming planet.

(FWIW, I did some poking around the net, and it's both fascinating and funny to see the number of skeptic sites exclaiming that the planet stopped warming in 2007, and 2002, and 1998, and 1995. When will they ever learn?)
Quoting Grothar:
HB Pat. Your're catching up to me fast.




Rare air indeed!

Hello, LHR. How are ya?
Quoting presslord:
I think he just gave himself away...


Cmon Press, get with the program. Use the assets available to help others again, and you do help others for sure :)

Note, huge disclaimers apply if you look at this blog post :)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1140&tstamp=#commenttop
One day Grothar will be able to tell the real reason why Moses wasnt allowed into the Promised Land.

Me..I know,,but cant say entirely till I get the Mayans inbound message next Jan 15th at 12Z.

But Alms and Idols were involved.

..I think I just went blind in a Eye.

She/Shim iz tall though...
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Rare air indeed!

Hello, LHR. How are ya?


Old, how you doing? Peaceful on the blog tonight?????
Quoting Neapolitan:

Thanks for posting the top graph; every time it shows up here or elsewhere, I can't help but chuckle at those who use it as "evidence" of cooling, when a) the bottom end of the last downward blue line is still higher than about 80% of the rest of the graph, and b) the more important red line showing the running 13-month average is still higher than about 99% of the graph. It takes quite an imagination, I think, to look at it and exclaim, "Yep! An ice age is upon us!" I think the scientific term for that is "grasping at straws" ;-)

The thing is, as any reputable atmospheric scientist will tell you, climate change is a long-term issue, a phenomenon that is playing out over a period of years and decades--and all those long-term climate trends point to a warming planet.

(FWIW, I did some poking around the net, and it's both fascinating and funny to see the number of skeptic sites exclaiming that the planet stopped warming in 2007, and 2002, and 1998, and 1995. When will they ever learn?)


Dude, you really need to get back into the workforce. Sorry, but you are a broken record of, I know better than you, over and over again. I am starting to feel sorry for you and really should not. Nuf said.

gnight

Quoting Patrap:
One day Grothar will be able to tell the real reason why Moses wasnt allowed into the Promised Land.

Me..I know,,but cant say entirely till I get the Mayans inbound message next Jan 15th at 12Z.

But Alms and Idols were involved.



I just know why I wasn't let in....Forgot my E-tickets. LOL The blog has reminded me of April 1984 this past week. Staying warm up there??



Thanks Gro-bro.



Happy Birthday Pat!

And hell Grothar. Wish I could stay longer, but I need to get off to bed. Night everyone.
Staying warm up there??


Its been colder than a witches..


Well real cold.


let the furnace in da floor sleep this winter and went wid all electric space heaters.

But these Big ol rooms take some time.

And the draft could reach cat 1 seems at times..specially with these Storms rolling thru.
Quoting Grothar:


I just know why I wasn't let in....Forgot my E-tickets. LOL The blog has reminded me of April 1984 this past week. Staying warm up there??



LOL. Fairly peaceful. George Orwell?

I sweated my butt off today, it was too warm in the sun, working on pulling an engine.
Finally got around to updating for 2010. Here's where it stands. Personally believe the current cycle will continue for at least 20 years, probably 30 and then... not sure... but on preliminary looking (analysis for those that are sticklers for semantics) thinking a step down for the next cycle, atm.

Quoting Patrap:



Thanks Gro-bro.



HB-D!!!.And is Don'tAnnoyMe in the building.I always wanted to ask how he got his name.At least it's original.
Ty washingtonian115

Thanks a Bunch caneswatch ..rest well.
Talked to my brother on Long Island. He said they were getting thunder and lightning with this storm. Snowing very heavily there now. Probably more airport closures coming.
Happy early B-day, Pat. THAT explains it. ;)
Quoting caneswatch:
Happy Birthday Pat!

And hell Grothar. Wish I could stay longer, but I need to get off to bed. Night everyone.


At your age you should have been in bed at 8:00.
Ouch! My graph hurt my eyes. Let me try to fix.
Evening all. We've had an interesting day weather wise. At Nas Int'l Airport, flights were delayed until after 8:30 a.m. because of fog. This is the first island-wide fog that was not connected with a fire in literally years. This evening we've been reporting misty conditions, though not sufficient to obscure driving.
I find myself staying up Later and watching the Late,Late show with Craig.


Better, I think.

Image reinstated as the best one. Hey, if Grothar can see it, anyone should.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



LOL. Fairly peaceful. George Orwell?

I sweated my butt off today, it was too warm in the sun, working on pulling an engine.


No, not that 1984, Pat & I were occupied...elsewhere. Still working on your son's car. Used to like to tinker, but gave it up a long time ago. Now when someone pops their hood I give a long look and just say.....MMMMMMM, interesting.
Quoting Seastep:
Better, I think.



Much better Seastep! When I looked at your first one, I thought I took the wrong meds.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
12:00 PM FST January 12 2011
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category One (988 hPa) located at 19.2S 169.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on hourly multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
=================
northwest quadrant and within 240 miles of the center in sector from north through east to southwest

Additional Information
=======================
Low level circulation center is obscured by cirrus outflow. Central dense overcast pulsating under diurnal influence but persisting about low level circulation center. Outflow good to north and developing elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low to moderate shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak analysis based on low level circulation center sheared less than 0.5 degrees from deep convection yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0, PT=2.5. Final Dvorak T number is based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 19.5S 168.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.1S 167.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.5S 166.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:00 AM UTC..
Spring of 84,,above the Arctic circle is and remains the coldest season in me Life.

But dem Artic Aurora's was worth the Atlantic Boat ride..!
358. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


It's not the global average temperature itself but the temperature distribution that is most important regarding the hurricane season. The pattern that will evolve during the latter part of this winter is still in the making.

is true
Quoting washingtonian115:
HB-D!!!.And is Don'tAnnoyMe in the building.I always wanted to ask how he got his name.At least it's original.


Sorry, cannot reveal. Because I don't remember!
Quoting Grothar:


No, not that 1984, Pat & I were occupied...elsewhere. Still working on your son's car. Used to like to tinker, but gave it up a long time ago. Now when someone pops their hood I give a long look and just say.....MMMMMMM, interesting.



LOL. I hear you. Saw Pat's ref. as well. Sounds like a great trip.


I love the Aurora's. An awesome sight to behold!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. We've had an interesting day weather wise. At Nas Int'l Airport, flights were delayed until after 8:30 a.m. because of fog. This is the first island-wide fog that was not connected with a fire in literally years. This evening we've been reporting misty conditions, though not sufficient to obscure driving.


hiya baha..

.. the Miss River round the Audubon Bend just round the corner here can really Fog over this time of year.






Quoting Patrap:
Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change 11-17-08


I was actually going to use this anyway...

Original Dessler paper

My view is the answer is 2 +/- 2. Could be 4, could be 0.

The Dessler paper is classic.

0.02 correlation coefficient. Um....

I agree with Dessler on Spencer's work to a certain extent... blaming temperature changes on clouds is not intuitive.

But (and on RealClimate I see that a certain Eli made the same point and Dessler did not respond)...

Trade winds influence clouds

So, there is a problem with the statistics. Dessler is saying that temperature is the "cause" whereas the "cause" of the temperature change is the variation in tradewinds, which also impact the clouds.

So, while rejecting the argument of Spencer it does look like the spectral analysis is picking up something...

Hypothesis: could this something be the impact of the trade wind variations on clouds? What is the lag between impact of sea temperatures and clouds? Doesn't seem reasonable to be on the order of months... so I don't know what the spectral stuff is picking up. But then again I don't know.

On the other hand, I can be "unbiased" (and ignorant) and simply say since I don't know about the influence of tradewinds on clouds assume no impact. But that is the old there are lies, darned lies, and statistics.

All this dogmatic talk with such a high level of uncertainty is unwarranted.

2% correlation coefficient?

We don't know.

I am nothing but an ignorant donkey.
One last test. I know, I know, need to do this on my own blog to determine how to get the best resolution.

Image removed. Worse.
Quoting Ossqss:


Dude, you really need to get back into the workforce. Sorry, but you are a broken record of, I know better than you, over and over again. I am starting to feel sorry for you and really should not. Nuf said.

gnight

Broken record? Would that be something like posting the exact same graph over and over and over and over hoping that it will suddenly start showing the cooling it so stubbornly refuses to, the cooling contrarians having been calling for and hoping for for years even as the planet has continued to warm? Something like that? ;-)

At any rate, my friend, when you post something on a public site, you've basically given up the right to ask those who disagree with you not to respond to it. If you want only fellow contrarians to comment on your posts, you should instead use WU mail. Failing that, of course, you're certainly free to put me on ignore. (hint, hint)
Baaaahhhh!!!!!!

I'll experiment on my blog to determine the best resolution.

I think that one was the worst!
Quoting Patrap:
Spring of 84,,above the Arctic circle is and remains the coldest season in me Life.

But dem Artic Aurora's was worth the Atlantic Boat ride..!


Yeah, a real "United Effort" wasn't it. I posted some images of the auroras a few weeks back, did you see them?
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, a real "United Effort" wasn't it. I posted some images of the auroras a few weeks back, did you see them?


A real TEAM with a Lot of WORK one could say..

LOL

Saw dem .




Quoting Patrap:


A real TEAM with a Lot of WORK one could say..

LOL

Saw dem .






So, you were there!!!! HA. Only you could have finished the slash on that. LOL
Quoting Ossqss:


Dude, you really need to get back into the workforce. Sorry, but you are a broken record of, I know better than you, over and over again. I am starting to feel sorry for you and really should not. Nuf said.

gnight



I think what you are trying to say is that Neo is a legend in his own mind.



Transport.

Mode of travel: USS Raleigh. LPD-1

Keel Laid June 1960 Gro,,my Birth Year.


Tromso was so beautiful..
But the Ferry ride was COLD.

USS Raleigh thru the years.


Now she rest a reef for da fishes as she was decommissioned and retired to Davy Jones Locker.

I creep da Kids out in BAd Weather wit dat un..still.

Arrrrghhhhhhhh....!






Quoting Patrap:
Transport.

Mode of travel: USS Raleigh. LPD-1

Keel Laid June 1960 Gro,,my Birth Year.


Tromso was so beautiful..
But the Ferry ride was COLD.

USS Raleigh thru the years.


Now she rest a reef for da fishes as she was decommissioned and retired to Davy Jones Locker.

I creep da Kids out in BAd Weather wit dat un..still.

Arrrrghhhhhhhh....!








Remember her well.. and the Yellowstone.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Broken record? Would that be something like posting the exact same graph over and over and over and over hoping that it will suddenly start showing the cooling it so stubbornly refuses to, the cooling contrarians having been calling for and hoping for for years even as the planet has continued to warm? Something like that? ;-)

At any rate, my friend, if you're going to post something on a public site, you really have no right to ask those who disagree with your assumptions not to respond. If you want only fellow contrarians to comment on your posts, you should instead use WU mail. Failing that, of course, you're certainly free to put me on ignore. (hint, hint)


Again you prove my point, as expected.

For the rest of you.

I really don't like smart phones, as exemplified by my response to the continued BS, but they are soon to replace your PC's and home entertainment needs. Get ready, its coming fast :)



Quoting Patrap:
Transport.

Mode of travel: USS Raleigh. LPD-1

Keel Laid June 1960 Gro,,my Birth Year.


Tromso was so beautiful..
But the Ferry ride was COLD.

USS Raleigh thru the years.


Now she rest a reef for da fishes as she was decommissioned and retired to Davy Jones Locker.

I creep da Kids out in BAd Weather wit dat un..still.

Arrrrghhhhhhhh....!








Look familiar. Just click on the properties.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I see you've came out of your cave j/k.Anyway did you catch some of the snow?.


Unfortunately, no. Not even any sleet to speak of.
Quoting Patrap:
One day Grothar will be able to tell the real reason why Moses wasnt allowed into the Promised Land.

Me..I know,,but cant say entirely till I get the Mayans inbound message next Jan 15th at 12Z.

But Alms and Idols were involved.

That's right, a fellow goat....happy b-day
Quoting atmoaggie:
That's right, a fellow goat....happy b-day



Ty Big N Sho bro..

I've been ordered to cease and desist and retire to da wunderland Upstairs.

Quoting atmoaggie:
That's right, a fellow goat....happy b-day


Like in "OLD". Where you been lurking, atmo. Three fights on here tonight and you weren't in any of them.....slipping. Getting cold up your way again, I hear.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Bueller? Anybody? Any station, new antennae radio check?
Wassup, n-g?
Quoting Patrap:



Ty Big N Sho bro..

I've been ordered to cease and desist and retire to da wunderland Upstairs.



Better hurry. Have a good one, bro! Thanks for being there!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Like in "OLD". Where you been lurking, atmo. Three fights on here tonight and you weren't in any of them.....slipping. Getting cold up your way again, I hear.
Yup, some 20s...not terrible cold. Not sweating, for a change.
TRMM pretty much missed Vania.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yup, some 20s...not terrible cold. Not sweating, for a change.


We should have a another cold front coming our way again, down to the 20's inland and 30's on the coast.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yup, some 20s...not terrible cold. Not sweating, for a change.


Good evening AA... still interested in your take on Dessler (mine is 362)
G'night all,...

Trey Bier,,

2 Mack-O's please,,the Old Guys buying.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Good evening AA... still interested in your take on Dessler (mine is 362)
Yeah, my holidays didn't allow for any reading whatsoever...nor blogging.

Lost a grandparental unit on the 23rd. Then got surprise tickets to the Cotton Bowl.

Prolly put 4000 miles on vehicles since Dec 20, easily, as a result.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Good evening AA... still interested in your take on Dessler (mine is 362)


Hoe gaat het? Het zal koud opnieuw zijn.

Don't want to interrupt, but who is Dessler?
Good evening.

The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains.
The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Nina event that has been in place since July.


Dr. Jeff Masters
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, my holidays didn't allow for any reading whatsoever...nor blogging.

Lost a grandparental unit on the 23rd. Then got surprise tickets to the Cotton Bowl.

Prolly put 4000 miles on vehicles since Dec 20, easily, as a result.


May he/she RIP.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good evening.

The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains.
The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Ni�a event that has been in place since July.

Dr. Jeff Masters


Hey, Chicklit!
Hi Grothar, wie gehts?
I see they're still doing the bully bully over the global warming as if it were still a debate. That's the joke.
Everyone knows there's something out of whack going on. I suspect it will continue to get worse.
What we're experiencing here in the southeast is dry air, as you know, and have been for months.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


May he/she RIP.
Thanks.

Hey, you ever hear anything about the journal publishers putting articles out for Kindle? How cool would it be to download and read any AMS or AGU article on Kindle? (Provided that color wasn't important in plots, I guess).
Quoting Grothar:


Hoe gaat het? Het zal koud opnieuw zijn.

Don't want to interrupt, but who is Dessler?


Aggie (Dessler) paper

He's an aggie.

Actually, AtomAggie has the education best suited to critique this paper.

A very important question (which I think Dessler didn't answer, despite claims). the whole thing about how much human induced warming is going to occur is basically determined by what is called the cloud feedback.

Koud... nee. In halve uur 0.3 C en het is nu 3.5 C... boven nul ik denk.

Of michien niet.

Quoting EnergyMoron:
Actually, AtomAggie has the education best suited to critique this paper.
Hey, now, I'm not the only one here with a degree related to the field...

*yawn, stretch*
G'Nite, all
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Grothar, wie gehts?


Don't know why we don't talk much anymore. You're one of the few people with whom I agree the most. LOL Everything is going quite well. Just waiting for Winter to end. Hope you had a good holiday.
Ok Guys, what about this NEAR EARTH ASTROID....that's what our local is calling this lightning streak seen by practically everyone in the state about 8:48 tonight here in Ms. I saw it, was like the entire sky lit up with lightning....and there was a booming sound with it.
No I'm not crazy......I dont think......lol..
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, now, I'm not the only one here with a degree related to the field...

*yawn, stretch*
G'Nite, all


Yah, but you work in the area of interpretation of sat data and also are... an aggie.
Kindle?

Afraid i am in nearly the dark ages on that technology thing (hey gro...)
Every few days another catastrophe documented. Previous blog it was bleaching of the reefs. This time it's unprecendented flooding in Australia. Record high temps over the globe all summer and into the fall. Massive oil spill in the Gulf and we stand by, point fingers, and act as if the scientists documenting all this are full of profit motives. At least they're talking about beefing up regulation on offshore drilling and trying to make it apolitical. I've had it with the politization of environmental policy.
Anyway, thanks for the compliment Grothar. I hope to live long enough to see the foolish, shortsighted irresponsibility come to an end. Still, think there are worse times ahead. Environmentally and socially, politically and economically.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Sorry, cannot reveal. Because I don't remember!
Dang!.But hey atleast it stands out!!
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Aggie (Dessler) paper

He's an aggie.

Actually, AtomAggie has the education best suited to critique this paper.

A very important question (which I think Dessler didn't answer, despite claims). the whole thing about how much human induced warming is going to occur is basically determined by what is called the cloud feedback.

Koud... nee. In halve uur 0.3 C en het is nu 3.5 C... boven nul ik denk.

Of michien niet.



If you go back to post #203, Dr. Masters posted a link about that very subject. There have been a number of scientist with different approaches to that very subject, that are coming into agreement. It is a wordy piece, but interesting. If you have the time go look at it.

Ik geef om niet die wat u zegt, is het koud. LOL
Gro:

Just saw your post but will put mine up anyway :)

Quoting JeffMasters:
Regarding Antarctic temperatures, the latest revision of the historical data is interesting:

Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful, we are all doing the best we can!

Jeff Masters




http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/on-warming-antarctica-clouds-and-peer-revi ew/

The Doc made an intervention this afternoon. Dessler is an important paper and is mentioned in the link (somebody was flaming Levi over his AGW convictions... thus the call for civility).

I had asked AA about it before the Christmas season.
Quoting Grothar:


If you go back to post #203, Dr. Masters posted a link about that very subject. There have been a number of scientist with different approaches to that very subject, that are coming into agreement. It is a wordy piece, but interesting. If you have the time go look at it.

Ik geef om niet die wat u zegt, is het koud. LOL


3.3 C is neet koud. Ik vindt het lekker!

Wel te rustig! (echte, niet zoals "OxGas")
If you go to nbcwashington.com they should have on the front page,something about our snowstorm that's occuring.However the locals are pissed,that we aren't getting much.It's like nature is trying to avoid our area.And I have proof!!!.Our meteorologist said that we were in sort of like a dount whole.From northern virgina to southern Maryland,and D.C we have no snow,While other near by states have some.Sad.
Quoting Chicklit:
Every few days another catastrophe documented. Previous blog it was bleaching of the reefs. This time it's unprecendented flooding in Australia. Record high temps over the globe all summer and into the fall. Massive oil spill in the Gulf and we stand by, point fingers, and act as if the scientists documenting all this are full of profit motives. At least they're talking about beefing up regulation on offshore drilling and trying to make it apolitical. I've had it with the politization of environmental policy.
Anyway, thanks for the compliment Grothar. I hope to live long enough to see the foolish, shortsighted irresponsibility come to an end. Still, think there are worse times ahead. Environmentally and socially, politically and economically.


"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.....

Don't get too upset, things usually work out. Right now, people are afraid of a lot of things; the economy, war, government. Hopefully, we all will make the right decisions in the future.
I do not know what they are talking about, but perhaps you have a clue:
Science and politics of global climate change


Anyway, past my bed time. Night all.
(Yes, it's late and I'm generalizing which I disapprove of in others... disturbing news today about a young man who lit himself on fire...related to high cost of food and lack of jobs, I think in Tunisia.)
Quoting EnergyMoron:


3.3 C is neet koud. Ik vindt het lekker!

Wel te rustig! (echte, niet zoals "OxGas")


U bent te grappig. Got to go "hit the hay" and turn the blog over to the night shift. Play nice.
Quoting Grothar:


"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.....

Don't get too upset, things usually work out. Right now, people are afraid of a lot of things; the economy, war, government. Hopefully, we all will make the right decisions in the future.
yep everything is ok here move along nothing but fireworks
Quoting washingtonian115:
Dang!.But hey atleast it stands out!!


As does yours. I see you've changed your avvy once again.
...VERY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING...

AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 1 AM.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED THROUGH 3 AM. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AS SNOWPLOW OPERATORS WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE TYPE OF SNOWFALL RATES...MAKING
TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ON SECONDARY
AND TERTIARY ROADWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.
Quoting reedzone:
...VERY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING...

AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 1 AM.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED THROUGH 3 AM. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AS SNOWPLOW OPERATORS WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE TYPE OF SNOWFALL RATES...MAKING
TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ON SECONDARY
AND TERTIARY ROADWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.


Hey Reed, have you seen blizzard92's blog? That should be of interest to you.
Quoting Neapolitan:

"...Thanks for posting the top graph; every time it shows up here or elsewhere, I can't help but chuckle at those who use it as "evidence" of cooling, when a) the bottom end of the last downward blue line is still higher than about 80% of the rest of the graph, and b) the more important red line showing the running 13-month average is still higher than about 99% of the graph..."

But, as had been noted before, charts are created for presentation. I can imagine that, somewhere there's a copy of the "correct" chart - the one that uses an averaging period of 100 years ago, and shows the ENTIRE red line as above zero.

It would still show the same trend, but would appear much scarier.

If one were honest, though, they'd see the point: that the climate scientists have been saying the temps would constantly climb, to levels never before seen. The increased CO2 is driving ever increasing temps, and there should be NO drop in temps, ever.

Yet there's a drop from a peak. Is this drop permanent? Probably not. But what if it does drop below the "zero" line?

Can scientists say, with certainty, that the average will NEVER drop below zero?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey Reed, have you seen blizzard92's blog? That should be of interest to you.


I was at work this evening, haven't had the chance to do much. Though looks like the storm is forming nicely. Henry added earlier that the Ohio Low was stronger then predicted, but it now looks like the East Coast Low (as predicted) is the culprit.
My brother in East Moriches, Long Island, NY reported 3-6 inches on the ground right now and the worst of the storm has yet to come. I'm expecting 2 feet in some areas, especially where the yellows and reds on the radar will move through. 1-3 inches per hour.
Interesting story coming out:

carbon-injected-underground-now-leaking

It appears that an attempt to sequester CO2 in underground caverns is failing.

"...Paul Lafleur of Petro-Find Geochem found carbon dioxide concentrations in the soil last summer that averaged about 23,000 parts per million — several times those typically found in field soils. Concentrations peaked at 110,607 parts per million.

Lafleur also used the mix of carbon isotopes he found in the gas to trace its source.

“The...source of the high concentrations of CO2 in the soils of the Kerr property is clearly the anthropogenic CO2 injected into the Weyburn reservoir,” he wrote.

“The survey also demonstrates that the overlying thick cap rock of anhydrite over the Weyburn reservoir is not an impermeable barrier to the upward movement of light hydrocarbons and CO2 as is generally thought..."
That's a shame hcubed. Pity it isn't working.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
That's a shame hcubed. Pity it isn't working.


Problem is, they have to compress it when they pump it in (higher concentrations than "normal" air), so when it leaks out, the drastically increased local CO2 level is killing things.

"...Since 2000, Cenovus has injected about 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide underground..."
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
3:00 PM WST January 12 2011
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (987 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.5E, or 1050 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.0S 109.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.4S 111.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.9S 115.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.8S 114.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

The shear analysis is around 20 knots from CIMSS. The shear is expected to decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The separation between the LLCC and the CDO is within 0.55 degrees. The Dvorak analysis is based on shear pattern giving DT of 3.0. The MET and PAT give 2.5. However FT is based on the DT so final T number is 3.0.

TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast over the next 48 hours. It is then expected to recurve westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [ /- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track, however all models now agree on no coastal impact to the Pilbara, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST January 12 2011
=======================================

A low pressure area lies over southwest Bay of Bengal

Vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal centered near 7.0N 84.0E. Dvorak Intensity T1.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over southwest Bay of Bengal south of 9.5N, Sri Lanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar.
It appears that an attempt to sequester CO2 in underground caverns is failing.

Before declaring the experiment an abject failure, one needs to know how much is leaking out, and how quickly; trace leakage does not mean that nothing has been achieved. Even if only half remains sequestered after, say, 1000 years, that could be significant.

That said, it is probable that one could do better.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
18:00 PM FST January 12 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category One (987 hPa) located at 19.3S 169.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on hourly multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
=================
northwest quadrant and within 240 miles of center in sectors from north through east to southwest

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center slightly obscured by cirrus outflow. Central dense overcast pulsating under diurnal influence but persisting about low level circulation center. Outflow good to north and developing elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak assessment based on 0.60 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0. MET-3.0, PT=3.0. Final Dvorak T number base on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 19.7S 168.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.4S 167.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.9S 167.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:00 PM UTC..
423. IKE
29.7 my current temp and morning low..so far.
ike, I think it's 34º here, breeezy

but I just fed Kizzy the OutdoorKat and it FEELS like about 2º, wooOOOsh went the wind

but at least my forecast does not call for 20º

gigglesnork
425. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ike, I think it's 34º here, breeezy

but I just fed Kizzy the OutdoorKat and it FEELS like about 2º, wooOOOsh went the wind

but at least my forecast does not call for 20º

gigglesnork


Morning low now...29.5.

My forecast through Friday....then a nice warmup after Friday:)

Today: Sunny, with a high near 43. Wind chill values as low as 20. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Wind chill values as low as 16. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Wind chill values as low as 16 early. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 22. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 54. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 10 mph.

I know, I looked at your forecast, it was sad. But yeah, a warm up in store? I think I have 72º for next monday or tuesday.

Will this cold finally be over? or does the long range get ugly again?
427. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
I know, I looked at your forecast, it was sad. But yeah, a warm up in store? I think I have 72 for next monday or tuesday.

Will this cold finally be over? or does the long range get ugly again?


Looks like toward the end of next week/weekend, it may return.

..........................................

29.1 my new morning low. Hurry up sun!
North of Boston, 23F, snow around 2in/hour, wind 30 to 45 mph. Not a morning for the faint of heart.
429. IKE
Looks like warmer weather next week for the SE USA. Stay warm everybody.

I'm at 28.8 now.
19 degrees with the wind chill in NW Mobile County this morning. Im still waiting for that warmer-dryer Winter.
Morning Ike, Aqua!!

Dam cold day here in North Florida!!
432. IKE
***28.6 now***

Good morning...
27.9 here with I think about a 50 mph wind at least..lol
Quoting calusakat:



One thing they need to do is teach these characters to write better papers.

So now water vapor is an evil greenhouse gas as well.

Oh brother.

The whole point being made by those who see through the AGW fraud has been that Climate change is not a simple CO2 is at fault kind of thing. CO2 is simply a small player in a very complicated multi-element equilibrium.

No rocket science necessary.

Greenhouse gases may make a contribution to the climate, only problem is, the devil is in the details.

Had the author not had such a AGW slant in his viewpoint, the article would likely been written much clearer than it was.

This one is horribly written and extremely convoluted. He couldn't even get the energy facts straight.

Sadly, AGW bias means having to write in convoluted and twisted ways in order to cause confusion and consequently derive agreement because of the reader not wanting to say that they didn't get the drift of the article.

Its called saving face. They wouldn't want to look stupid in front of the professor now would they.



Terrific point.
.FREEZE WARNINGS AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

Miami NWS Discussion
30 at Pensacola Airport this morning but clear skies and flights are moving again...
29.9 in Panama City Beach.
30.0 in Wasilla, Alaska


Working two jobs these days so I haven't had a lot of time to post but here is the report from my neck of the woods this morning.
Quoting Chicklit:
I do not know what they are talking about, but perhaps you have a clue:
Science and politics of global climate change

Basically, it's an email exchange between Drs. Spencer and Dressler in which the latter tells the former--in very polite and scientific terms--that he's full of hot air: "...you have no evidence supporting your hypothesis beyond the mere existence of the correlation. Because of that, your theory explains nothing...and makes no testable hypotheses." IOW, what Spencer appears to have done is not much different than someone claiming the reason the earth spins is because there's a giant hamster running around a gargantuan wheel at the core, and when asked to explain how that can possibly be, responding, "Why, it's because the earth is spinning. Don't you see?" It's not unusual, of course, for Spencer to use such tactics; he tries very hard to bend science, though it steadfastly resists his every effort. But you gotta give him credit for perseverance. ;-)
Quoting aquak9:
I know, I looked at your forecast, it was sad. But yeah, a warm up in store? I think I have 72º for next monday or tuesday.

Will this cold finally be over? or does the long range get ugly again?
Same temperature in Wasilla AK and Pensacola FL...that's just wrong, LOL!!
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST WED JAN 12 2011

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT GENERAL TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. BUT GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT STILL SEEM LOW...AND UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN CONCERNING GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
INLAND RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER ...CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST...PROBABLY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE.
41 here in Orlando this morning! Expected to be near 80 Monday and Tuesday with possibly severe wx. Monday was a surprise as strong thunderstorms hit Monday afternoon with very vivid lightning. One bolt struck just outside my window at work. So much for the 30 percent chance of showers that day.
Funny how much colder it is in N FL closer to all that snow pack while C & S FL have remained fairly mild. Except tonight will be in the low to mid 30's but this cold snap will short lived for us here in the FL Penisula. Monday it was 37 in Panama City while it was 79 here before the strong thunderstorms hit which gave me about 1/2 inch of rain.
Woohoo!...temp is now a balmy 29.5 degrees and that is after a warm-up! I always look forward to warmer temps during this time of year but with that you get rain - and then more cold temps - UGH! The older I get, the less I like the cold. No wonder so many northerners move south - and I am south already! lol
Quoting AllyBama:
Woohoo!...temp is now a balmy 29.5 degrees and that is after a warm-up! I always look forward to warmer temps during this time of year but with that you get rain - and then more cold temps - UGH! The older I get, the less I like the cold. No wonder so many northerners move south - and I am south already! lol

You're not alone. The older I'm getting, the more I'm hating the cold too!
Howdy all...29 on the beach this morning...brrr!
I know here in C FL it's been warmer than at any point during the month of December. Although it will be cold tonight we have had much colder a few weeks ago. Also another sign that the warm air is trying to move back north is the increase in thunderstorms as these systems cross C FL lately. Sunday thru Tuesday looks very warm/humid and very stormy as well and severe wx seems to be increasing for C and N FL Monday Tuesday timeframe.


Here's this system moving in Late Monday in Tuesday!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_144.shtml
Quoting calusakat:

One thing they need to do is teach these characters to write better papers.

So now water vapor is an evil greenhouse gas as well.

Oh brother.

The whole point being made by those who see through the AGW fraud has been that Climate change is not a simple CO2 is at fault kind of thing. CO2 is simply a small player in a very complicated multi-element equilibrium.

No rocket science necessary.

Greenhouse gases may make a contribution to the climate, only problem is, the devil is in the details.

Had the author not had such a AGW slant in his viewpoint, the article would likely been written much clearer than it was.

This one is horribly written and extremely convoluted. He couldn't even get the energy facts straight.

Sadly, AGW bias means having to write in convoluted and twisted ways in order to cause confusion and consequently derive agreement because of the reader not wanting to say that they didn't get the drift of the article.

Its called saving face. They wouldn't want to look stupid in front of the professor now would they.

The article states this: "...the heat-amplifying effect of water vapor is potent enough to double the climate warming caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere." IOW, the hotter the atmosphere gets due to greenhouse gases, the more water vapor it can hold--and the more water vapor it holds, the hotter it will get, as that water vapor itself acts as a greenhouse gas in trapping heat. Such phenomena are, of course, called "feedback loops", and there are many driving the rapid warming of the planet. They're all very interesting; I just wish they weren't so devastating...

On a side note: I find it almost charming and quaint that your response is almost completely devoid of substantive disagreement, yet so chock-full of seething attacks on both the solid climate science in the article and the writer of it. Do you really feel that's how we should be discussing science?
Im becoming somewhat skeptical about weather patterns like La-nina ect ect.. that allow forecasters to give long range seasonal forecasts. For example.. All I heard before the 2010 hurricane season, is that the United States will likely be hit by multiple hurricanes. We all know that didnt happen. Then the same weather pattern was used to forecast a warmer-Drier Winter for the SE. Not happening so far. Could someone please explain in very basic Laymans terms, what is going on?
Morning all. I was away from Australia for 5 weeks and returned to mass flooding in Qld. My back yard is a mess of dirt from overflowing pots. I am lucky. In SE Queensland it's a brown inland sea that's flowing towards the Pacific ocean.
Brisbane is expecting a peak flood height of 5.2m, There is 115,000 people without power. Billion$ worth of damage to infrastructure. Billion$ worth of lose of crops and coal production. Sadly 23 people have lost there lives since the flood crisis, 12 in the last few days. Currently there is 49 people missing. Whole towns have been wiped out. Whole towns have been evacuated.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The article states this: "...the heat-amplifying effect of water vapor is potent enough to double the climate warming caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere." IOW, the hotter the atmosphere gets due to greenhouse gases, the more water vapor it can hold--and the more water vapor it holds, the hotter it will get, as that water vapor itself acts as a greenhouse gas in trapping heat. Such phenomena are, of course, called "feedback loops", and there are many driving the rapid warming of the planet. They're all very interesting; I just wish they weren't so devastating...

On a side note: I find it almost charming and quaint that your response is almost completely devoid of substantive disagreement, yet so chock-full of seething attacks on both the solid climate science in the article and the writer of it. Do you really feel that's how we should be discussing science?


Ah Mr. Redirection...

hard at work trying, desperately, to distract people from thinking for themselves.

Nice try.

No cigar.


Quoting scott39:
Im becoming somewhat skeptical about weather patterns like La-nina ect ect.. that allow forecasters to give long range seasonal forecasts. For example.. All I heard before the 2010 hurricane season, is that the United States will likely be hit by multiple hurricanes. We all know that didnt happen. Then the same weather pattern was used to forecast a warmer-Drier Winter for the SE. Not happening so far. Could someone please explain in very basic Laymans terms, what is going on?

La Nina is the cause of the flooding in Queensland. Warmer than normal waters in the SE Pacific means more evaporation, east to west trade winds move the moisture and it hits the Great Dividing Range and the moisture falls as torrentualy rains. in 48hrs, 1 town in Northern NSW had 13inch's of rain.
Quoting calusakat:


Ah Mr. Redirection...

hard at work trying, desperately, to distract people from thinking for themselves.

Nice try.

No cigar.



So again no attempt to refute the science based on its merits? Just more vitriol? sigh...
NEW BLOG!