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Smoke, heat, and air pollution across much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on June 08, 2011

Smoke from Arizona's second largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire near the New Mexico border, has now blown downwind over 1,500 miles to the Northeast U.S. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least another day due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and a disturbance rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 25 mph, with gusts near 35 mph today to eastern Arizona. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 20 mph for 9 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 7%. The fire grew from 300 square miles on Sunday to 365 square miles on Monday and 487 square miles Tuesday--about 40% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 166-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. Winds are expected to diminish for Thursday and Friday, which should allow firefighters to make headway controlling the blazes. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 8, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,500 miles, and was pushing into the Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 7, 2011. Heavy smoke from the fire covers large portions of New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Nebraska in this image. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual June heat wave
An intense blast of heat set new daily high temperature marks in 14 states from Texas to Minnesota Tuesday, including a remarkable 103°F in Minneapolis. It was the hottest day in the city in nearly 23 years, since 105°F was recorded on July 31, 1988, and the second earliest date the city had ever hit 100°. Minneapolis' earliest 100° day came on May 31, 1934, when the mercury also hit 103°. Yesterday was the 5th consecutive day that the Austin, Texas Bergstrom Airport tied or set a new daily temperature record. On Monday, June 6, the airport hit 103°F, the earliest in the year that location had ever hit 103°. Record keeping began there in 1942, and the last time Austin was so warm so early in the year was on June 14, 1998, when the mercury hit 109°.


Figure 3. Air pollution forecast for Wednesday, June 8, 2011, calls for a large-spread region of pollution that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG), over the eastern third of the nation. Image credit: EPA Airnow.

Significant air pollution episode today
The heat will continue today for much of the eastern half of the country, and heat advisories are posted in fourteen states. The high heat, combined with abundant sunshine and very stagnant air, is expected to bring the most severe large-scale air pollution event of the year to the nation. Adding to the hazard is the presence of fine smoke particles from the fires in Arizona, which have blown downwind to cover most of the eastern 2/3 of the country. Air quality on Wednesday is expected to be Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange, or over 100 on the Air Quality Index), in more than 80 cities, including Baton Rouge, La., Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Newark, N.J., Richmond, Va., and Atlanta. If you live in these areas, cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise today if you have asthma or other respiratory problems.

Caribbean disturbance 94L no threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Northwestern to North Central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica is very disorganized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. I heard from wunderground user Anthony Zed in the Kingston, Jamaica suburb of Norbrook, and he reported that his rain gauge received 11.27" of rain from 94L from June 1 - 7, which is more rain than had fallen all year. The big rain day was yesterday, with 3.47". Satellite loops show a few disorganized clumps of thunderstorms in the region, and NHC has downgraded 94L's chances of development by Friday to 0%. Wind shear is very high, 30 - 50 knots, making development very unlikely.

First tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Tropical Storm Adrian, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed last night off the coast of Mexico. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a hurricane on Thursday. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Amazing solar flare erupts
In recent months, the sun has awakened from its longest and quietest period since the satellite era bgan in the late 1970s. An increasing number of sunspots, solar flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections have occurred, as solar activity builds towards a peak expected in 2013. Yesterday, the sun unleased the most spectacular solar flare ever captured on video, highlighted in the Youtube link below.


Video 1. A spectacular solar flare erupted at 06:41 UTC on June 6, 2011, when magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1226-1227 became unstable. The blast produced a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was not aimed directly at Earth, but fringes of the blast may cause aurora activity on June 8 and 9. This is probably the most dramatic and beautiful solar flare captured by the cameras on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO.) Additional movies and information are available at spaceweather.com, and additional information on the latest solar activity is available from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters
Wallow Fire
Wallow Fire
the dots are ash
New Mexico Smoke Emergency
New Mexico Smoke Emergency
A sickening orange glow looks like sunset but it is heavy smoke from forest fires in Arizona. Air quality alert in effect, warnings to stay indoors. Zuni mountains, just a few miles off in this view, cannot even be seen. Grants, NM, 2.5 hours pre-sunset

Air and Water Pollution Fire Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. emcf30
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Glad to have a fellow Mississippian on the blog! We are grossly outnumbered by these nasty Floridians, like Grothar.

Grothar, hope your still taking names, if you didn't fall asleep
Quoting caneswatch:


What about Floridians? ;)


LOL...No, I'm kidding. I'd actually love to move to Florida one day.
1004. geepy86
Quoting NRAamy:
SOmeone say DOOM!?

;)

DOOM
Quoting emcf30:

LOL
Quoting TomTaylor:
LOL Taz




LOL



have a good night guys
Quoting emcf30:

Grothar, hope your still taking names, if you didn't fall asleep


He already took my name earlier. He said something along the lines of, "yours is coming later." Sounded like a hitlist LOL.
1007. emcf30
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



have a good night guys

Good night Taz
1008. emcf30
Quoting MississippiWx:


He already took my name earlier. He said something along the lines of, "yours is coming later." Sounded like a hitlist LOL.


Yea he will strike when you least expect it.
Nite Taz....your are a real good sport !!
1010. geepy86
G'night Taz.
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...No, I'm kidding. I'd actually love to move to Florida one day.


I know you were. :)

If you move down, my suggestion is moving to the west side of the state, say Tampa south to Naples. It's so nice over there.
1012. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Glad to have a fellow Mississippian on the blog! We are grossly outnumbered by these nasty Floridians, like Grothar.


My mother's family were old time Floridians. I think I acquired my caustic humor for having been born in New York and schooled there for a time. Why I have fond memories of Mississippi and have many relatives there in Port Gibson and Pascagoula.
Quoting Grothar:


My mother's family were old time Floridians. I think I acquired my caustic humor for having been born in New York and schooled there for a time. Why I have fond memories of Mississippi and have many relatives there in Port Gibson and Pascagoula.


I knew there was something I liked about you. Lol.
Quoting Grothar:


My mother's family were old time Floridians. I think I acquired my caustic humor for having been born in New York and schooled there for a time. Why I have fond memories of Mississippi and have many relatives there in Port Gibson and Pascagoula.


New Yorkers..... LOL ;)
1015. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



have a good night guys


Nite Taz, see you tomorrow.
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



have a good night guys
Night Taz. I'm off to bed as well. Good night guys... Please behave yourselfs.... And no Idle banter :) and no and I mean no posting of the hurricane season chart when I'm gone... That's MY job... And last but not least. DOOM (Refer to post 967 for a good laugh)
1017. alfabob
Quoting Grothar:


My mother's family were old time Floridians. I think I acquired my caustic humor for having been born in New York and schooled there for a time. Why I have fond memories of Mississippi and have many relatives there in Port Gibson and Pascagoula.


Well darn, Grothar...we just might be kin...my forefathers were the first settlers in the Bayou Pierre area out from Port Gibson...ya never know...lol
Quoting alfabob:


Wow, looks much better organized in the core of the hurricane.
BTW, anybody seen Orca lately? LOL
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Night Taz. I'm off to bed as well. Good night guys... Please behave yourselfs.... And no Idle banter :) and no and I mean no posting of the hurricane season chart when I'm gone... That's MY job... And last but not least. DOOM (Refer to post 967 for a good laugh)


nite SWB...gotcha back on the good list..:)
1023. alfabob
Quoting MississippiWx:


Wow, looks much better organized in the core of the hurricane.

Yea, I think it just has a large core so it is having trouble clearing out and becoming symmetric. Here is a before and after (from the 85Ghz image to current).

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DODONG
12:00 PM PhST June 9 2011
=====================================

The low pressure area West of Metro Manila has developed into a tropical depression and was named "DODONG".

At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Dodong located at 15.1°N 119.4°E or 60 km southwest of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
------------

Luzon Region
------------
1.Bataan
2.Pampanga
3.Tarlac
4.Zambales
5.Pangasinan
6.Cavite
7.Metro Manila

Additional Information
=====================
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

TD Dodong is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


nite SWB...gotcha back on the good list..:)
Night :)
T.C.F.W.
01E/H/A/C1
MARK
13.63N/102.36W
And that is why I like KKunKid....he should be an author....love to read his stuff...:)
1028. alfabob
Hmm it seems that there was a solid eyewall to begin with, and now it is expanding.
Another night like this on the blog, and I'll be admitting myself into a looney bin. LOL. I'm sleepy. Goodnight, all.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Another night like this on the blog, and I'll be admitting myself into a looney bin. LOL. I'm sleepy. Goodnight, all.


nite Ms boy......
1031. geepy86
I so agree with Kankk, coming from a small business owner that pays all the taxes. Fl is great.
it was a good night on the blog hopefully there can be more

anyway with that iam out later all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it was a good night on the blog hopefully there can be more

anyway with that iam out later all


sleep well Keep :)

MIMIC Image
1035. Tygor
Good news San Antonio :) Let the water wars begin!!

The state continues to face drought conditions, causing the Edwards Aquifer level to drop closer and closer to 640 feet. However, with the availability of diverse water supplies as well as reduced water use through Stage Two restrictions, San Antonio has the opportunity to delay Stage Three restrictions.

image

SAWS' diverse portfolio of non-Edwards water supplies is helping to reduce the impact of Edwards Aquifer pumping restrictions.

Download a printable fact sheet on the Stage Three delay here (PDF).
Instead of entering Stage Three restrictions when the Edwards Aquifer reaches 640 feet, San Antonio will delay further restrictions until the Edwards Aquifer Authority imposes Stage Three.

When the Edwards Aquifer reaches 640 feet, SAWS will increase production of stored water and Carrizo Aquifer water to 40 million gallons per day, enough to supply about 20 percent of San Antonio's current daily demand. These non-Edwards supplies will be pumped from the Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) facility, allowing SAWS to continue meeting customer demands while easing pumping from the Edwards Aquifer as required by state law.

"The possibility of Stage Three restrictions is real, meaning once every other week watering - but our diverse portfolio of water supplies allows San Antonio to delay further restrictions," said Robert R. Puente, SAWS President/CEO. "With this delay, we hope to provide time for weather conditions to improve, as well as time for the aquifer to stabilize as heavy agricultural use drops."
Another crazy night. I'm off. Night y'all!
1037. MrsOsa
Quoting Grothar:


My mother's family were old time Floridians. I think I acquired my caustic humor for having been born in New York and schooled there for a time. Why I have fond memories of Mississippi and have many relatives there in Port Gibson and Pascagoula.


I reside in good ole goula! Small world after all.
Quoting caneswatch:
Another crazy night. I'm off. Night y'all!


Sure your gone by now....but..goodnight Canes :)
1039. JLPR2
....
...
..
.
*crickets*
.
..
...
....
Quoting JLPR2:
....
...
..
.
*crickets*
.
..
...
....




Chirp......chirp....... chirp......


:)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 9 2011
==================================

Bay Of Bengal
-------------

Convective clouds are seen over central and north Bay of Bengal


Arabian Sea
------------------

Yesterday's well marked low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours
Getting like 'The Waltons' in here.
1043. JLPR2
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Chirp......chirp....... chirp......


:)


haha!

Well I'm off to bed, goodnight to anyone that is up and online and see this. :P
Solar Weather For Today:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST June 9 2011
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.3N 119.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.5N 118.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will move north northwest for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Initial Dvorak Number will be 2.5 after 24 hours
1046. Titoxd
Advisory out... up to 90 mph


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 090841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...ADRIAN REMAINS WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 103.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ADRIAN WOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1047. Titoxd
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090844
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C
PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE
CDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77
KT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS
EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER
THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS...GFDL...
AND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE
TROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
MORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. ASSUMING
THAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER
THAT. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
*cricket sounds*
Oh well, you guys have fun sleeping, cause I'm on the other side of the world! Yee-haw!
Also i almost forgot the AQI for U.S.
1049. aquak9
So it looks like I'll be the first today, to grab the sun and send it west across the CONUS. Simple sunrise, no hallucinogenic properties.

Greetings, lifts coffee cup, waits.
1050. IKE
Here's your sunrise....



Here's your 5 day QPF.....


1051. aquak9
Hmmph. I see it's the 5-day QPF that's got the hallucinogenic qualities today. Never gonna happen.

g'morning Ike.
1052. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Hmmph. I see it's the 5-day QPF that's got the hallucinogenic qualities today. Never gonna happen.

g'morning Ike.
You have no chance of rain until Saturday....then a 20% chance.

My area's extended forecast....

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...THE VERY LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND THEN STALL OVER THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT
CONTINUES TO FILL...IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN TROF AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NE BACK TOWARDS OUR AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. AT THE VERY LEAST...ITS PRESENCE SHOULD AID OUR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BY PROVIDING SOME DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOWER 500 DM HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING... AS MUCH OF THE SE U.S. WILL BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN 2
LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. ONE WILL BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE OTHER WILL BE A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER TX AND THE REST OF THE SW U.S. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH CAN
BE FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH...SOME OF WHICH COULD
SURVIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. EVEN IF MCS DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
OCCUR...THE UPPER TROF SHOULD KEEP THE MID LEVELS UNCAPPED AND
UNSTABLE (AS SHOWN WELL ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS)...AND WITH THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK...THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF EACH DAY. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN A BIT
MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS OUR SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS...AS THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOES NOT CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES VERY WELL IN THE EXTENDED (HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MEX POPS
ARE ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM 12 UTC...SO IT APPEARS
AN UPWARD TREND IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED).
AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROF...ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF OUR REGION (ESPECIALLY OVER SE
AL AND SW GA)...AS THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE A LONGER PERIOD OF
INSOLATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. OVER MUCH OF THE
FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...THE SEA BREEZE (AND ITS ASSOCIATED SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY) SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S.
1053. aquak9
Sounds like anything in your area will be spotty, Ike, but maybe some good little thunderboomers. Cause you know, the rainy season in Florida will start in about a week....

"You have no chance of rain until Saturday" repeat as necessary. :(
Good morning Ike, and {Aqua}. I am adding to my hurricane food kit this morning. Four cans of spam!:)
1055. IKE
Good morning.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON.
WEAK LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW WHILE
WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
THE FAR SE WATERS SAT...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE GULF WATERS
SUN.

1056. Walshy
Quoting IKE:
Good morning.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON.
WEAK LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW WHILE
WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
THE FAR SE WATERS SAT...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE GULF WATERS
SUN.



Good morning.
Got a question for those following Adrian in the Pacific-my boss went to Manzanillo Mexico and I haven't heard from him (which is highly unusual). Is Adrian affecting that area at all?
Thanks.
1059. Walshy
Quoting cctxshirl:
Got a question for those following Adrian in the Pacific-my boss went to Manzanillo Mexico and I haven't heard from him (which is highly unusual). Is Adrian affecting that area at all?
Thanks.


It is still headed closer to Manzanillo...increase in rip currents and waves likely for the next two days.
Adrian looking quite rugged, still a strong Category 1/low-end Category 2 though.

Fingers, toes and eyes crossed...general northerly movement. Just might get some liquid to fall.


Anyone know what time they update the drought monitor maps? Curious if we go into extreme.
Newport, NC

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NWD OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS. CURRENTLY NHC DOES NOT GIVE THIS ANY CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT HOW IT EVOLVES AND WHERE IT TRACKS
COULD INFLUENCE COASTAL WEATHER A BIT...ESPECIALLY WINDS/SEAS/AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. AT THIS TIME DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY. HPC GUIDANCE IS STILL FAVORING THE
12Z/08 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE AS IT IS MOST
CONSISTENT. THE NAM IS STRONGEST AND TRACKS IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

REGARDLESS OF LOW TRACK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MON. THE
LATEST NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY GETTING
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALLOWED
FOR UP TO A 20 POP IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR THIS
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. KEPT CURRENT LOW CHC POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT/MON.

Quoting Walshy:


It is still headed closer to Manzanillo...increase in rip currents and waves likely for the next two days.


Thanks. The only thing I know so far about their trip is that one of his friends (a pro world surfer) has broken at least 1 board and several leashes. Good news is my boss uses better judgment than his friend (I think). I'm still worried because they are staying right on the beach of course.
Fortunately we can still enjoy the comforts of Spring for...

...another couple of weeks before the heat of Summer starts setting in.
Morn'n all...coffee?
1067. cg2916
About Adrian...

Is that a pinhole eye?
aint the ideal setup for surf in puerto escondido the best swells come from the s hemisphere. its a wierd year here in e.cen. fl. have not seen any lightning storms off in the distance this june just fair weather clouds
Quoting cg2916:
About Adrian...

Is that a pinhole eye?

Yup, yes it is.
west central africa looks alittle wetter than usual which means less dust in july and aug. see those clouds coming from the sw moving into sw florida they are suppose to be my cyclone. damn windshear another busted forecast.
1072. FLdewey
A spurious pinhole eye if I had to guess...
it is early days yet for the eastern atlantic, but i have a strong suspicion, that things could be earlier than usual. my concern is the abundance of moisture in the eastern atlantic. the absence of sahara dust, which we in the lesser antilles have known to expect this time of year, is another area of concern. with the projected forecast of this hurricane season. these early signs. could be indicator of what to expect
1074. hydrus
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Morn'n all...coffee?
Good morning N.G...Have you seen the GFS?..There is a low forming in a week or so. Something about it looks interesting...Link
1075. Walshy
Nice paper by Gray and Landsea on the correlation between West Sahel rainfall and Intense Hurricanes.

Link

Quoting Walshy:


I can live with that!
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning N.G...Have you seen the GFS?..There is a low forming in a week or so. Something about it looks interesting...Link
you mean that huge blob that parks over me on the 23rd/24th? Very interesting...
1079. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
A spurious pinhole eye if I had to guess...
Good morning Dewey..If Levi were here, he would say that its not even close to a pinhole eye...Its way to ragged..
1080. hydrus
Quoting NttyGrtty:
you mean that huge blob that parks over me on the 23rd/24th? Very interesting...
Yes...Its a healthy looking lil blob..:)
Quoting stoormfury:
it is early days yet for the eastern atlantic, but i have a strong suspicion, that things could be earlier than usual. my concern is the abundance of moisture in the eastern atlantic. the absence of sahara dust, which we in the lesser antilles have known to expect this time of year, is another area of concern. with the projected forecast of this hurricane season. these early signs. could be indicator of what to expect
lived in puerto rico for 13 yrs i thought the dust was a july aug event
1082. hydrus
Quoting NttyGrtty:
you mean that huge blob that parks over me on the 23rd/24th? Very interesting...
And moisture coming towards Florida from the east...
1084. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
So, we good?
Yoo bet...
New metal roof went on the house in Feb...time for the test
1086. bappit
Quoting cg2916:
About Adrian...

Is that a pinhole eye?

It is way too big.
1087. Grothar
Looks like Adrian could well make it to a Category 3 Hurricane soon.


1088. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
So, we good?
Cruise mode in the ATL.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
1089. FLdewey
LOL hydrus... every pinhole eye comment gains me some hate mail... it's fun to read in the morning. My favorite is one I got yesterday telling me I was a disgrace to the meteorological community.

LOL!

Good think I are not no meteoro-ma-lolo-ga-mist.

Can I get a price check on a sense of humor please? Price check!
Good Morning.....Agree that it is a little early for the real CV train, but, things looking good out there for an active Cape Verde season. The ITCZ has been very active the past several weeks (note TS Adrian in the E-Pac) and only a matter of time before conditions become less hostile out in the mid-Atlantic and the MJO cycles back to the Atlantic as the ITCZ starts to rise in latitude (but still keeping my eye on that little blob out there at 37W/5N just to see what happens with it as sheer is very low out there at the moment)...Could be very interesting out there come mid-July.

In the short-term in North Florida, temps have cooled down nicely in the evening and 70 right now in Tallahassee.........Did not have to use the AC last night.
1091. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Dewey..If Levi were here, he would say that its not even close to a pinhole eye...Its way to ragged..
It's a Oinhole Eye.
Good Morning all.
Quoting stoormfury:
it is early days yet for the eastern atlantic, but i have a strong suspicion, that things could be earlier than usual. my concern is the abundance of moisture in the eastern atlantic. the absence of sahara dust, which we in the lesser antilles have known to expect this time of year, is another area of concern. with the projected forecast of this hurricane season. these early signs. could be indicator of what to expect


Paper:
Link

Excerpt:
The monsoonal dynamics in the Sahel is
sensitive to the interannual fluctuations in the
meridional gradient of the moist static energy
(MSE = CpT + Lq + gz), in the planetary
boundary layer (PBL). Wet conditions are related
to large gradients of MSE and dry conditions are
related to weak gradients (Eltahir and Gong,
1996; Fontaine and Philippon, 2000).
Over sea the MSE in the PBL is mainly
regulated by SST. From April to August an
intense cooling (about 4 C) of the equatorial
Atlantic waters in the Gulf of Guinea intensifies
the sea-land temperature contrast which leads
the onset of the West Africa monsoon (WAM)
(Fig.1). This sea-land thermal contrast brings a
substantial change of the wind, which, between
April and July, changes into an intense
southwesterly flow, pushing the ITCZ and its rain
belt inland (Okumura and Xie, 2004).
1093. FLdewey
And yes... stating the obvious for those who don't get jokes... we all know it's not a pinhole eye. Stop sucking the fun out of the room. :-p
Notice the Gulf of Guinea in one months time:

5/9/2011



6/9/2011
1097. FLdewey
Good lord Taz... you're poofing early today.
1100. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Dewey..If Levi were here, he would say that its not even close to a pinhole eye...Its way to ragged..


It may be ragged but looks pretty good.

1103. pottery
Hurricane Eye definitions.... alphabetically, it goes like this,

Linhole eye - lack of anything
Minhole eye - minus even the possibility
Ninhole eye - only a Ninja can see it
Oinhole eye - Obvious eye, visible to those with 40-40 vision
Pinhole eye - posssible eye, but only just so

Q has me stumped..

Not a good telltale sign:

Quoting pottery:
Hurricane Eye definitions.... alphabetically, it goes like this,

Linhole eye - lack of anything
Minhole eye - minus even the possibility
Ninhole eye - only a Ninja can see it
Oinhole eye - Obvious eye, visible to those with 40-40 vision
Pinhole eye - posssible eye, but only just so

Q has me stumped..



Quasi
1108. FLdewey
I would say Quad pottery... but that kinda goes against the flow.
so plzs stop with it or be POOFED...aye aye Cap'n Taz, you 'da boss
Quoting NttyGrtty:
New metal roof went on the house in Feb...time for the test
Is it the standing seam roof ? If it is they seem to hold up very well. Most of them received little to no damage here during Ivan.
1111. Grothar
Hey, anyone know what happened to the Navy site. It won't open at all.
1113. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:


Quasi

OK, I got it--

Quinhole eye - there could be up to 5 eyes in there
New drought report out...still in Severe, no extreme yet.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is it the standing seam roof ? If it is they seem to hold up very well. Most of them received little to no damage here during Ivan.
It is standing seam and I am here (Navarre). A little pricey but rated to 140 mph and guaranteed for 40 years; the color is warranteed for 20 years

added: and it lowered my insurance 25%
Quoting pottery:

OK, I got it--

Quinhole eye - there could be up to 5 eyes in there

R- Ruinhole Eye: Ruined eye
T.C.F.W.
01E/H/A/C2
MARK
13.63N/102.36W
Quoting NttyGrtty:
It is standing seam and I am here (Navarre). A little pricey but rated to 140 mph and guaranteed for 40 years; the color is warranteed for 20 years
Ivan hit us as a Cat4-5 but most of the standing seams held up good. There were some that had a piece lift up or torn off but nowhere near what damages the shingle rooves had.
Did he just type POOEDED?
1123. pottery
Quoting Vincent4989:

R- Ruinhole Eye: Ruined eye

Nice!

out for a while....
1124. Grothar
Quoting NttyGrtty:
It is standing seam and I am here (Navarre). A little pricey but rated to 140 mph and guaranteed for 40 years; the color is warranteed for 20 years


Well, one good thing about me, I don't need anything guaranteed for more than a week.
1125. pottery
I think we better leave Sinhole alone though...
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, anyone know what happened to the Navy site. It won't open at all.


Link
good morning everyone!!!! do everybody see how imperssive adrian is this morning! they must be tripping putting it at a strong cat 1. It should be a strong 2 or weak 3.
Quoting Hurrykane:
Not a good telltale sign:

wat that suppose to mean
1132. Grothar
Quoting Hurrykane:


Link


Thanks, Hurry, but it is the Tropical Cyclone page that will not open. Even from this link. Do you have that one?
1133. FLdewey
There is no reason to pick on the Taz man... he's a solid contributor here. If you don't like him, ignore him. If you're not smart enough to know how to ignore someone there is a link at the bottom of this page walking you through the process.

NEXT.
Quoting bigwes6844:
good morning everyone!!!! do everybody see how imperssive adrian is this morning! they must be tripping putting it at a strong cat 1. It should be a strong 2 or weak 3.


No such thing as a weak cat 3.
1135. hcubed
Quoting MrMixon:


I wish there was a little more detail about how a single lightning strike sent 77 people to the hospital. Were they marching in formation at the time? Gathered for some outdoor ceremony or event?


According to the Sun-Herald (Biloxi, MS paper), nobody was directly hit. The lightning hit a power pole near their tents. They were taken to hospitals as a precaution.

Two went by ambulance, and the rest by bus.
Hurrykane:

Does that MET 9 RGB mean that there is little dust over Africa, making a Cape Verde storm more likely to form and strengthen?
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Hurry, but it is the Tropical Cyclone page that will not open. Even from this link. Do you have that one?


Use Backup Site
Quoting bigwes6844:
wat that suppose to mean


In the graphic, African dust shows up as a pink or magenta color. If you look over Africa, in the ITCZ, where the red cloud features are, you can see deep and lighter blue surrounding the area...means there is ample moisture showing up near the western Sahel Region. This indicates that the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea is doing its dirty work.
Up to 90 knots (105 mph):

EP, 01, 2011060912, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1037W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
1141. aquak9
Oinhole™

I trademarked it last night; ya'll owe me royalties now.
1142. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Use Backup Site


That won't open for me either. Do you know if there is something wrong with the site?
Quoting Tazmanian:







you are dumb POOEDED and reported


Excerpert from Rules of the Road:

"

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
"
Quoting Grothar:


That won't open for me either. Do you know if there is something wrong with the site?


Grothar, must be in your PC. The site is opening ok for me.
1145. FLdewey
Onshore flow continues... but dewpoints are in the low 70s finally... COME ON MOISTURE!
Quoting Grothar:


That won't open for me either. Do you know if there is something wrong with the site?
I wouldn't doubt it. They always seem to have some sort of problem. Still getting lots of rain here.
1148. Jax82
After several days of extreme fire behavior, the Wallow Fire has become the second largest fire in Arizona history. By early afternoon on June 8, 2011, the fire had consumed 389,000 acres (608 square miles), largely in the Apache National Forest, and was completed uncontained. This image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, shows the fire at 1:25 p.m. local time.
1149. Grothar
Picking on somebody for their writing is pretty lame.
1150. FLdewey
Oh man... alright someone send the dawg a check.

You do take checks, right? :-s
RAIN!!!!

1152. Grothar
Quoting Hurrykane:


Grothar, must be in your PC. The site is opening ok for me.



I guess I have to upgrade from Windows 3.1. Thanks Hurrykane.
Quoting Hurrykane:


In the graphic, African dust shows up as a pink or magenta color. If you look over Africa, in the ITCZ, where the red cloud features are, you can see deep and lighter blue surrounding the area...means there is ample moisture showing up near the western Sahel Region. This indicates that the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea is doing its dirty work.
o ok so that means the cape verde season will start early this year.
Quoting DestinJeff:


may portend the start to S FL rainy season, you think?


Hey DestinJeff,

How have ya been?

Looks like im going to get some rain today in south florida from ex-94L
Quoting Chucktown:


No such thing as a weak cat 3.
im saying like a start of cat 3 status like 115
1157. Walshy
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Thursday morning - NHC keeping its eye on Adrian's, which is easily seen in this microwave image (courtesy FNMOC). At 5 am EDT, Hurricane Adrian in the eastern North Pacific was located about 275 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, moving roughly parallel to the Mexican coast. Yesterday's tropical storm watch was discontinued by the government of Mexico, although Adrian could still cause dangerous surf conditions along the coastline. In the Atlantic basin today, the tropics are quiet.
Quoting bigwes6844:
im saying like a start of cat 3 status like 115
it will not achieve major status now high end cat 2 maybe boarderline cat 3 but i am not expecting it moving too fast and its ri convective cycle will dimish over the next 24 hrs.
Quoting bigwes6844:
o ok so that means the cape verde season will start early this year.


Maybe not early, but if the trend continues, studies indicate a increase in the number of intense hurricanes and intense hurricane days.
Quoting aspectre:
Fortunately we can still enjoy the comforts of Spring for...

...another couple of weeks before the heat of Summer starts setting in.


Oh yeah!! Pop on down to Mobile Alabama for a day or two ! Lol
1161. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


may portend the start to S FL rainy season, you think?

Who bought you a WOTD calendar?

I would say that, god forbid (or allah, whatever), it should rain in Florida this weekend we'll have to find another topic to whine about. I'm not sure I can handle that.
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL hydrus... every pinhole eye comment gains me some hate mail... it's fun to read in the morning. My favorite is one I got yesterday telling me I was a disgrace to the meteorological community.

LOL!

Good think I are not no meteoro-ma-lolo-ga-mist.

Can I get a price check on a sense of humor please? Price check!


Too expensive for most!
Quoting Grothar:


That won't open for me either. Do you know if there is something wrong with the site?


The normal NRL monterey site, http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html is coming up blank for me, but the backup site does work for me. You may get a security certificate warning when going to the backup site, but it is ok to proceed.
1164. Walshy
NHC on Adrian.
1166. SLU
Morning Adrian

Quoting Hurrykane:


Maybe not early, but if the trend continues, studies indicate a increase in the number of intense hurricanes and intense hurricane days.
im thinking that 2005 mite be deleted from the map as the most intense storms behind 2011. It just feels real bad this year for storms to happen. if you look at these tornadoes, floods, winter weather, heat, and wildfires. It just seems like hurricane season will be bad in the upcoming months. 2011 may not surpass 2005 but i think it will be up there with it.
1168. FLdewey
I can't make eye contact with you...
morning, guys and gals.



From the 8 a.m. Discussion:

...WHATEVER WAS COMPARATIVELY HEAVIER IN TERMS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EIGHT HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED NOW...WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FOR THE MOMENT...

mood of the moment
Django
Keeps getting worse





Quoting DestinJeff:



<<<<<<<< STARING CONTEST!


you two should get a room...
maybe we can get Reed to write a song...
We'll call it floods, mud, fires 'n ash, twisted bark and lost tomorrows

Anyway, I'm feeling chipper this morning!
Quoting asgolfr999:


Oh yeah!! Pop on down to Mobile Alabama for a day or two ! Lol

come to South TX--it ain't spring here and never was for 2011--we went straight into summer.
Good morning,

I was going to repost the Texas & Florida drought maps again but I see it was just done a few posts ago! LOL


and our regular morning antics are alive and well..

I sure hope this year is not going to be another
"in 7-10 days" type of year where when we get closer than 4-5 days the systems poofs
or goes elsewhere and the "7-10 days out" starts again.

Seems like the "rainy seasons" has already started the "we will get rain next week"
and next week..nadda...

That is what makes weather so much fun, it never does what it is suppose to do
and all we can do is just wait and watch.

Hope everyone is enjoying their Thursday!
sefla, so you are still in the sunshine state...why am i thinking you are in California?
1180. cmahan
I feel guilty whenever someone posts the Texas drought maps, 'cause I live in that little "Oh, we're fine" blob up near the OK border. Of course, our rain keeps bringing tornadoes and whatnot with it...
Say good morning to Adrian:
On the plus side, the lack of rain down here has made it really easy to tell which of my sprinkler heads need to be repaired or replaced.

Seems like we go through the same pattern...no chance for rain for the next 2-3 days and then a 10-30% chance 3 days out. Three days later the chance of rain is once again 0, but we have a shot at rain another 3 days later. Unfortunately, this probably means that once it starts raining, it'll rain too much!
1184. Levi32
Sunrise visible images show the eastern side of Adrian outside of the eyewall is void of new convection, and only mid-level clouds are visible. This is likely due to dry air entrainment, which is keeping Adrian weaker. The NHC forecast of Cat 3 is one which I highly doubt will come true, and although they will likely upgrade to low-end Cat 2 with the next advisory due to the eye feature, I still see this as a top-end Cat 1 that will not get any stronger. Satellite and TPW products both indicate that dry air has invaded Adrian's core, and strengthening from here onward will be difficult.

1185. Levi32
In addition, the intensity models are starting to come around today to my idea of limiting Adrian to Category 1, after being unanimously in the Cat 2 camp yesterday.

1186. Levi32
The half-evaporated eastern side of the core is supported by much warmer IR temperatures than the western side. The eyewall is clearly not very strong on the east side, and the northeast quadrant of the system has had no new convective cells in quite a while.

Quoting Levi32:
Sunrise visible images show the eastern side of Adrian outside of the eyewall is void of new convection, and only mid-level clouds are visible. This is likely due to dry air entrainment, which is keeping Adrian weaker. The NHC forecast of Cat 3 is one which I highly doubt will come true, and although they will likely upgrade to low-end Cat 2 with the next advisory due to the eye feature, I still see this as a top-end Cat 1 that will not get any stronger. Satellite and TPW products both indicate that dry air has invaded Adrian's core, and strengthening from here onward will be difficult.


But then your forecast later is false, what will you do? :P
1188. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:
sefla, so you are still in the sunshine state...why am i thinking you are in California?


Wouldn't sefla give you a hint. Like in South East Florida. LOL How is my Chicklit today. Now you know how I feel when they all pick on me.
1189. Levi32
Quoting Vincent4989:

But then your forecast later is false, what will you do? :P


If they upgrade it to Cat 2 right now it would be debatable without recon based on the satellite presentation. If Adrian clearly strengthens today then I will have been wrong about him staying below Cat 2, but we will see whether he does or not. I do think the NHC forecast of Adrian becoming a major is even more unlikely.
1190. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The normal NRL monterey site, http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html is coming up blank for me, but the backup site does work for me. You may get a security certificate warning when going to the backup site, but it is ok to proceed.


Thanks, I got it open finally. There must be something wrong with their site again. And thanks to you too, Hurrykane.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:04:32 N Lon : 103:51:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



They may go with strong cat 2 hurricane
Just heard a radio ad in DFW that if you buy a tankless water heater in June and the temperature does not break 100 for the month of July it's free, businesses usually purchase some insurance when they run promotions like that just in case it does happen, I think they might be alright to just roll the dice on this deal, no chance, might as well have said it's free if the temp drops below freezing in July.
I see the exceptional drought category has been lifted Nward to envelope Palm Beach & Martin counties, not surprised. We got a 1/4" in Jupiter yesterday but, with the high winds and dry air in place, it was merely a tease.
Meanwhile in the West Pacific:

1196. Levi32
Latest Dvorak estimates are at 5.0 for Adrian, which corresponds to 90kts, a Cat 2.
1197. srada
Good Morning everyone.."wishing" for rain..

the models are well..NWS in wilmington, nc..

HAVE CONTINUED WITH NAM AND GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
THINKING OF NO POPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY DID NOT
IDENTIFY THE CURRENT PCPN....


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL BE THE FATE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW/WAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. NAM CONSISTENTLY REMAINS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...FASTER AND CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID THIS LOW SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR EAST SOME TIME ON SUN WITH
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON LOCAL WEATHER AS IT STANDS NOW..
1198. Levi32
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:04:32 N Lon : 103:51:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : 14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



They may go with strong cat 2 hurricane


And that, is just ridiculous. Hands down. ADT goes wild if there is any kind of eye feature, and it's very unrealistic.
1199. Grothar
I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard.

Link

Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
Just heard a radio ad in DFW that if you buy a tankless water heater in June and the temperature does not break 100 for the month of July it's free, businesses usually purchase some insurance when they run promotions like that just in case it does happen, I think they might be alright to just roll the dice on this deal, no chance, might as well have said it's free if the temp drops below freezing in July.

Given that the average July high in Dallas is 96, and the record's 111, I'd say the promo is a very safe one...
1201. Levi32
It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air.

1202. LilyZ
Great blog!

Quoting Levi32:


If they upgrade it to Cat 2 right now it would be debatable without recon based on the satellite presentation. If Adrian clearly strengthens today then I will have been wrong about him staying below Cat 2, but we will see whether he does or not. I do think the NHC forecast of Adrian becoming a major is even more unlikely.

ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now.
1204. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard.

Link



It's trying, but definitely not rapidly intensifying. We will see how high it goes, but right now the core looks rather shabby. It's a great forecasting exercise on a system that's not threatening land.
1205. aquak9
.
1206. Levi32
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now.


So they went with the exact Dvorak estimate as usual. I do wish they would fly planes into these more often.
1207. Levi32
Green IR colors straight to the eyewall on the north side:

Quoting Levi32:
It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air.


That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane.
1209. Levi32
Quoting Vincent4989:

That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane.


That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that.
Aha!!!

T.C.F.W.
01E/H/A/C2
MARK
14.75N/104.16W
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aha!!!



Keep flaunting your rain!
Looks very annular-ry.
Quoting Levi32:


That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that.

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.
Adrian's northern eyewall is collapsing due to dry air intrusion from what I can see. Rapid waning of convection in the last few frames there. Adrian though sports a very impressive looking eye for a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane.
1218. Levi32
Quoting Vincent4989:

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.


TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree:



Morning all. It's overcast cool and windy here this a.m.... I do hope we get at least a few showers in the NW Bahamas. I'll bet points south are reporting rain today. Pity the core of the system didn't track further north as opposed to NE, but even if it only brings a little rain today I'll be satisfied... I also hope it lasts until tomorrow.

:)
1220. Levi32
ICESS MJO projections show upward motion returning to the tropical Atlantic after June 20th.

1221. Walshy
Quoting Vincent4989:

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.


Troll Alert
Quoting Levi32:


TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree:



Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection.
1223. Levi32
New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone.

Quoting Walshy:


Troll Alert

I'm not a troll, because disagreements without disputes are allowed. I'm just having a disagreement here.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DODONG
5:00 PM PhST June 9 2011
=====================================

Tropical Depresssion DODONG has accelerated and continues to move in a North Northwest direction.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Dodong located at 16.0°N 118.7°E or 150 km west of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
------------

Luzon Region
------------
1.Bataan
2.Pampanga
3.Tarlac
4.Zambales
5.Pangasinan

Additional Information
=====================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

TD DODONG is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
21:00 PM JST June 9 2011
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.9N 118.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.5N 117.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
It rained here about 45 mins ago, yet it was such a light rain the ground barely got wet. Better luck next time I guess...
i am always interested when people who know about it post about the bermuda high so if anyone knows anything about it please post when there is any news on it setting up. I know if it is too far west it causes a high to sit over the fla panhandle all summer and its excruciating heat and drought. that happened in 2005 and again last year and i just wish we had some rain, no bad storms!
Not sure whether anyone's noted it here, but NHC has a set of floaters up on the Wallow Fire. (Here's a link to the visible loop.)
Quoting Levi32:
New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone.

yeah it has achieved its peak and will slowly drop off now
Quoting Grothar:


Wouldn't sefla give you a hint. Like in South East Florida. LOL How is my Chicklit today. Now you know how I feel when they all pick on me.


i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha
if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous.
in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month.
i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it.
will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here.
i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish
so won't worry too much about them anyway.

regarding getting picked on, some like it better than being ignored lol.
(i prefer being ignored, by the way!)
1232. Gearsts
Quoting Vincent4989:
Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection.
With so much dry air? Dude the system is sick, not fealing well. Eating dry air is not good for Adrian.
Adrian now a major:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.


THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1234. Gearsts
Quoting Neapolitan:
Adrian now a major:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.


THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WOW cant belive it, i guess they were reading this blog and saw all the talk about the dry air.
Quoting Chicklit:


i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha
if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous.
in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month.
i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it.
will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here.
i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish
so won't worry too much about them anyway.


Seoul and then Stuttgart. Now THAT'S a trip. Sounds associated with the military. And sounds like FUN.
1236. SLU
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 091432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...ADRIAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS WELL OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...KEEPING THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



1237. Levi32
New blog.